Latest / The Rest of the World Podcast / The Rest of the World Report | November 3, 2026

Transcript

The Rest of the World Report | November 3, 2026 · The Rest of the World Podcast

• 0:00
  [music]
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning from Paris.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Rudy Martinez with The Rest of the World Report for Tuesday morning, November 3rd.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Happy Election Day, United States.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get this one right.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: Americans vote today for a new Congress.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: People outside the United States cannot vote in it, yet officials, analysts,
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: and newspapers across the world have spent weeks working out what it means for them.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Today's report collects those readings.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: It was written before any results were announced, and it begins in the Middle East.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: American forces struck Iran's Keshem Island on Monday night, U.S. officials said.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: The officials called it a defensive action. They claimed that the U.S.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: military hit a missile launcher after Iranian surface-to-air missiles brought down
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: an American drone over waters east of the Strait of Hormuz.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: One official said Washington had deliberately kept the campaign quiet
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: to avoid signaling a return to major combat operations.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: The U.S. official also said the incident did not mark the start of an expanded strike.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: Iranian media reported five explosions on the island,
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: and it was the latest in a series of limited U.S. strikes in recent weeks.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: Trump told reporters on Monday that the U.S. had won the war with Iran.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: He also said he did not know whether it could be called a war
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: since there had been no fighting for months.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Asked by reporters whether he was considering a strike on Iran after the election,
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: he replied no.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: Trump's earlier statements differ.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: On Thursday, October 8th, he wrote that the U.S.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: would not attack Iran at any time before the midterms.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: Then on Tuesday, October 27th, he told a Texas rally that You'll see Iran in a couple of weeks.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: That same day, Washington told several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a short,
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: intense military campaign against Iran after the vote,
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: according to people briefed on the conversations.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Trump has not made a final decision,
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: but is leaning toward a large post-election attack
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites, according to the report.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: An Israeli source and an American source said Trump
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Saturday, October 31st.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: They said Netanyahu is pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after the election,
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: while Trump for now wants negotiations to play out.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: The Israeli source called the call tough, while the American source called it direct.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: The same Saturday, Iran's security chief, Mosin Rezai, said he had received a letter from J.D.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Vance, seeking to revive stalled talks.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Mediators are working in parallel.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan,
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: held talks with Iran and Tehran on Monday, October 26.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Saudi analyst Hesham Aqanam said the meeting may be the last chance
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: before escalations spiral out of control.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: Pakistan and Qatar had helped broker an agreement in June to reopen the strait
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: and begin talks on a wider settlement.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: It unraveled quickly as both sides renewed attacks.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: In Lebanon, the health ministry says 4,389 people were killed and 12,428 wounded
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: between March 2 and October 30.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: Lebanon says Israel occupies about 700 square kilometers of its territory.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: Israel is dealing with an election of its own.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Last week's vote left the bloc led by Netanyahu's Likud party with 53
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: of 120 Knesset seats, short of a majority.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: The opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot 148.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: Israel's Arab parties won a record 19 seats and are set to back Eisenkot's bloc.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: Likud is considering voting against certification of the results
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: by the Central Elections Committee on Wednesday.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Such a move would be unprecedented in Israeli history.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Israel is watching the American vote with concern,
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: particularly what happens if Democrats win a majority, as polls suggest.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot would be ready to attack Iran in some circumstances,
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: though most would agree Netanyahu would take on more risk.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Translator's note.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: Outside the United States, this region is reading the vote as a deadline, not an election.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: A Lebanese official told Arab News that Lebanon has entered
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: an election-related diplomatic freeze, with no diplomatic contacts underway.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: An Indian think tank wrote today that a renewed U.S.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: offensive against Iran is held back only by the American midterm elections.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Two places far apart give the same date the same weight.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: What no public source settles is whether Trump has made a decision.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: What American readers need to know.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: American forces struck an Iranian island on Monday night in what U.S.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: officials called a defensive action.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: Trump told reporters he's not considering a strike on Iran after the election.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: An Israeli and an American source said that Netanyahu is pressing him for one.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: Gulf states have been told to prepare for a possible campaign
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: and Israel election left Netanyahu's bloc short of a majority.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Zelensky said on Monday that Ukraine has intelligence
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: that Russia is preparing another massive attack, primarily on energy and logistics.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: In his nightly address, he said the assumption is that the world will be watching
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: the American midterms.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: What happens in Ukraine, he said,
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: along with its difficulties with air defense and Patriot missiles,
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: will be overlooked.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: The warning came hours after Russian forces struck a school used
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: to distribute humanitarian aid in Komeshuvika and Zoropizhizhia region.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: A Ukrainian report counted at least 26 dead.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: Overnight into Tuesday, a Russian aerial bomb hit a hospital in Kharkiv.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: Prosecutors say 73 people were injured, among them patients, medical workers,
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: and residents in nearby buildings.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: Authorities are moving 226 patients to other facilities.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: Nipro was struck again in the morning.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Governor Alexander Hanza said 15 people were wounded and three of them seriously.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: Zelensky said in a Sunday interview
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: that Ukraine would stop striking Russian oil refineries for a month in exchange
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: for a month of Patriot interceptor missiles.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: The State Department has approved the potential sale
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: of 500 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors to Ukraine for about $2.1 billion.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Karol Dmitriev, who heads Russia's direct investment fund and serves
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: as presidential envoy, wrote on Exxon Monday that Zelensky is trying
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: to undermine Republicans before the midterms.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: He wrote that Zelensky keeps lecturing President Trump.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: A similar charge has been circulating in the U.S.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: On October 12, Ukrainian journalist Ostap Yarish, who is based in the United States,
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: described a narrative running from anonymous social media accounts
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: to national television and members of Congress.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: It holds that Ukraine's refinery strikes are meant to raise fuel prices,
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: embarrass Trump, and help Democrats.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: He cited the television host Rachel Kampo-Stuffy and the commentator Jack Posobiec
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: and Senator Mike Lee of Utah.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yarish said then that more such accusations would come before the votes.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: The congressional question is what a new majority would do.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: If Democrats win both chambers, they could put new Ukraine aid to a vote.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Such aid could pass with the two-thirds majorities needed to override a veto.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: Representative Gregory Meeks of New York would chair
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: the House Foreign Affairs Committee if his party wins.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: He has introduced bipartisan legislation to block Trump's plan
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: to return Russian diesel to global markets.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: The limits are also real.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats would still face a president who can veto,
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: and Trump launched the Iran war without congressional approval,
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: and his administration ignored a war powers resolution that passed with a handful
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: of Republican votes.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Oleksandr Leonov, executive director of the Penta Center
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: for Applied Political Research in Kiev,
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: said on Tuesday that if Democrats gain strength,
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: Trump's arrangements with Russia will end.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: He said both chambers could press Russia harder through sanctions.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: What American readers need to know.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: Zelensky says Ukraine has intelligence that Russia is preparing a major attack timed
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: for the American vote.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: A Russian official says Zelensky is trying to undermine Republicans.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: Ukraine says it would pause refinery strikes for a month in exchange for Patriot missiles.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: A Ukrainian analyst expects a Democratic Congress to end Trump's arrangements with Russia.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says trade talks with Washington do not depend
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: on the American vote.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: She said at her morning news conference on October 28th that the review
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: of the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement, known in Mexico as the T-MEC,
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: will continue after November 3rd.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard had spoken days earlier with U.S.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Ambassador Ronald Johnson.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: They were exploring whether a deal was possible before Election Day.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: Mexico's main open item is a cut in the Section 232 tariffs on cars, steel, and aluminum.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: President Scheinbaum asks Mexicans for much patience and serenity in the face
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: of Trump's contradictory messages.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: Scheinbaum keeps cooperating with the U.S.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: on migration and security, and she also demands respect for Mexican sovereignty
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: and reciprocity in the fight against arms trafficking.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Two academics at the University of Guadalajara see risk in the vote.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: Jose Arturo Santa Cruz Diaz Santana warned a Republican defeat could lead Trump
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: to make reckless decisions against Mexico,
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: including more trade or military confrontation.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: He also raised the possibility that Washington would take Mexican politicians,
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: governors, or officials accused of ties to organized crime to the United States
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: for trials.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: His colleague, Miguel Alejandro Gilar Chiapa,
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: said Trump could harden tariffs on Mexican products.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: He said Trump could also step up the offensive against cartels
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: through direct military intervention or drone strikes.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: Such steps would carry extremely important implications for Mexican sovereignty, he said.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: Jorge Fernandez Menendez, a columnist in Mexico City,
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: wrote on Monday that the vote is unlikely to change the trends that shape relations
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: with Mexico.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: A Democratic Congress could press harder on tariffs, he wrote,
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: but the White House holds very broad presidential powers.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: In his view, the vote would have no direct effect on the tariffs or the trade negotiation.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: He wrote that Trump will not soften his positions after the election and will harden them.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: The doubt in the White House, he wrote, is how much pressure to put on Mexico, not weather.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: He wrote that the pressure will deepen after the vote
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: unless Mexico's federal government changes its position.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: Mexico holds its own midterm elections in June.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: Translator's note.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: Outside the United States, Mexico is the clearest case
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: of a government projecting calm while its academics warn about the days after.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: President Scheinbaum says talks continue whichever party wins.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: A Mexico City columnist gives the reason that the tariffs and negotiations sit
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: with the president, not with Congress.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: Academics at Guadalajara warn of a Trump who lashes out if he loses.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: The two readings point to the same place.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: Tariffs, military action, and trials of officials are all decisions a president can take.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: The election decides who sits in Congress,
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: and the decisions Mexico fears are not Congress's to make.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: What American readers need to know.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: Mexico's president says trade agreement talks do not depend on the vote.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: Mexico's main open issue is U.S. tariffs on cars, steel, and aluminum.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: Mexican academics warn that a Trump defeat could bring escalation against Mexico,
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: including over cartels.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: And a Mexican columnist says the vote will not change tariffs.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: Brazil's government is waiting for the American vote before it restarts talks with Washington.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: For Lula's government, the stalled items in the relationship could move only after the election.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: The two countries have been in a diplomatic crisis since Washington imposed tariffs
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: on Brazilian goods.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Talks resumed in August after a call between Lula and Trump then lost momentum.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: Members of Lula's government say the White House was waiting to learn who would govern Brazil.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: Lula won that runoff on October 25th against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro,
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: who went to the United States two days later, and Trump welcomed him.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: Lula's government believes that Congress with more Democrats could open the doors
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: on the environment and regulation of large technology companies.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: That would not necessarily change the White House's stance
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: because the president keeps significant powers over trade and foreign policy.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: Brazilian constitutional lawyer Guilherme Amorim
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: of the Political Catholic University of Sao Paulo said Trump might have
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: to be more discreet in protecting the Bolsonaro family.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: In Argentina, Tiago Leis, who coordinates a political institution's observatory,
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: At the Lievenson Institute, said President Javier Millet made
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: a very strong political bet on Trump.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: It has reduced financial support and trade agreements.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: Lace said a Democratic win could bring more questions about that cooperation.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: Members of Congress, including Republicans,
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: have already requested information about the U.S.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: Treasury's currency swap with Argentina.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: He said the Treasury would keep the authority that allowed the swap
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: so financial cooperation could continue and even expand, but not without problems.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: Washington backed Millay in 2025 with a swap of up to $20 billion and purchases of pesos.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: A Democratic advance could make future assistance harder to approve
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: while Argentina needs foreign currency for debt payments.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: Trump spoke about Cuba at a South Florida rally on Friday, October 23rd.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: We'll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran, he said.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X the same day
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: that Cuban seeking change should act through a discrete partnership with the CIA.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: The CIA reposted that message in Spanish.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: Cuban President Miguel de Escanal answered
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: that Washington has not renounced its ambition of domination.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: The Trump administration has kept a near-total oil blockade on the island
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: since the start of the year.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: Florida obtained a state arrest warrant for former President Raul Castro on October 19th.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: A Democratic majority could make new legislation on Cuba harder to pass
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: and increase oversight, but it would not lift sanctions automatically.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: Washington keeps a pragmatic relationship with Venezuela's acting government
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: under Delce Rodriguez.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: Analyst Marianne de Alba said,
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: The result will not change who sets Venezuela policy in Washington.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: It could change every actor's incentives, he said.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: In Havana, the independent writer Luis Sino argued in a column on Monday
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: that Cuba's government has delayed contacts with Washington,
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: hoping a Democratic win limits Trump's powers.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: He wrote that Trump could also want to score points on Cuba after the election.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: Sino called the street belief that a Democratic Congress would lift
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: the embargo simplesas y tonterías, simplicities and nonsense.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: A Cuban state outlet republished an opinion column on November 1st saying
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: the vote will matter above all for Latin America and the Caribbean,
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: which it says suffer under the Don Roe Doctrine.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: What American readers need to know is that Brazil is holding trade talks until after the vote.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: Argentina's president depends on U.S.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: financial support that a Democratic Congress could scrutinize.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: Trump said on October 23rd that the U.S. would deal with Cuba on its way back from Iran.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: Officials at the EU and NATO doubt that a big Democratic win would restrain Trump abroad.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: We don't think the unpredictability is going to change, said one senior EU diplomat.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: Officials said the midterms are not featuring much in the bloc's internal discussions.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: A second senior EU diplomat said the result is hard to predict and that hopes
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: for change would stay low.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: The diplomat was not sure how much even a democratic wave could affect foreign policy.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: The European Commission said it will not comment on any elections in the EU or abroad.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: On Ukraine, the EU is not expecting US support to ramp up again, even if Democrats win.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: Brussels is focused on plugging a 70 billion euro hole in Kyiv's finances next year.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: It is pushing Britain, Canada, and Japan to do more.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: And on tariffs, diplomats note that it took months to get President Joe Biden
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: to roll back tariffs on EU steel after Trump's first term,
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: and that limitations remained.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: At NATO, allies are waiting for a Pentagon review of U.S.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: forces in Europe, expected in December.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: The widespread expectation is that it will scale back U.S. deployments.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: Several NATO diplomats said they did not expect the midterms to effect the reviews.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: And some officials fear it could get worse.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: Bruce Stokes of the German Marshall Fund said presidents in trouble
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: at home have often turned to the international stage.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: That could mean an escalation in the Iran War or a more concerted push on Ukraine.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: Catherine Fieschi, a scholar at Carnegie Europe who spoke from Paris,
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: said a democratic win could breed complacency in Europe about its own far right.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: Marine Le Pen leads polling for France's presidential election on April 18th with about 34%.
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_00: Fieschi also said Europe could end up with renewed pressure on Ukraine,
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: as Trump could be clinching deals with Putin as fast as he can.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: A poll for the German think tank Bertelsmann Stiftung found that 31%
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: of Europeans see the United States as Europe's most trustworthy ally,
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: down from 51% in 2024.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: It found that 73% say Europe should go its own way rather
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: than continue close cooperation with the United States, up from 63%.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: China reads the vote differently.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: Chinese experts said a Democratic win would leave Trump wide room on foreign policy.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: Diaodaming of Renan University in Beijing said that the next two years could be
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: a lame-duck period for Trump,
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: but that he would likely keep bypassing Congress through executive orders.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: Meng Weijian of Fudan University in Shanghai wrote that Trump can still decide a lot of things.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: He listed tariffs, sanctions enforcement, and military deployments.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: German correspondent Miriam Steimer offered the opposite reading on October 29th.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: In her view, China could benefit from a weak American president
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: because while Trump divides the West,
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: Beijing can present itself as a reliable partner.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: What American readers need to know.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: European officials say they do not expect a Democratic Congress
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: to change Trump's foreign policy.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: Brussels is not counting on the U.S. for Ukraine or any rollback of tariffs.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: The Pentagon review of U.S. forces in Europe is expected in December.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: Chinese experts say Trump could still decide a lot on foreign policy even without Congress.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: India's foreign minister has criticized the Trump administration and public ahead of the vote.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: Speaking at an event in New York last month, S.J.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: Shanker said the administration has been an insensitive partner to India's concerns
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: over terrorism, has warmed to India's rival Pakistan,
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: and has pursued self-centered trade policies.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: India's finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman,
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: said earlier this month that trade negotiations had reached a plateau
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: beyond which giving or taking might be very difficult.
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_00: In September, Trump signed a new law allowing tariffs of up to 100% on countries
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: that buy Russian oil
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_00: He paused it to avoid driving up energy prices in the U.S. before midterms.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview in the week of October 26th
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_00: that none of the tariffs are meant to punish or harm India.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: He did not rule out similar measures would return.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: In Japan, Michael Kuchik
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: of Temple University's Japan campus said Japan wants just less extreme of behavior.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: Tokyo is urgently working on a bilateral emergency consultation framework
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: with like-minded nations, reports from October 26th say.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: Japan set up such a mechanism with Australia in 2022.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: It extended it this year to Germany, France, and the Philippines.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: Yoichi Shimada of Fukai Prefectural University prefers Republican majorities.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: Translators note, outside the United States, India's reading of the vote is a hope,
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: not a forecast.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: Najazira reports that many analysts think
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_00: the Modi government may now prefer Trump chastened by midterm losses.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: The three analysts it names do not agree.
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment says a chase in Trump could serve India's interests.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: Michael Kugelman doubts policy toward India would change,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: and Praveen Dhanthi of the International Crisis Group sees a broader consensus
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_00: among Trump-aligned Republicans to pressure India.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: WION, an Indian broadcaster, set out the limit of hope on October 4th.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_00: A divided Congress could restrict Trump's unilateral tariffs, it said,
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: but would likely keep the Russian oil sanctions.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_00: What American readers need to know.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_00: India's foreign ministry has criticized the administration in public,
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: and trade talks with Washington have stalled.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: Trump signed a law allowing tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil,
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_00: and then paused it before the midterms.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: Analysts disagree on whether a weaker Trump would ease pressure on India,
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: and Japan is building an emergency consultation framework with Australia, Germany,
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_00: France, and the Philippines.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: Today, Americans decide who sits in Congress, and tonight,
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of other people find out what that means for them.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't get to vote, but they've been planning around it for weeks.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Rudy Martinez. Thank you so much for listening.
• 19:07
  [music]