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The Realignment of Global Dollar Policy Will Boost Gold · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, A, market pros and
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Kind of
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: to podcasts, and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, it is
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: time to have a look at precious metals, and by
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: that we're not really talking bitcoin all. Little bitcoin itself
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  Speaker 1: is getting more precious by the day. Let's bring in
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  Speaker 1: Everett Moment precious metal specialists with Gainesville Coins. Let's begin, though,
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  Speaker 1: with a traditional special metal, and that would be gold. Everett,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: we saw it rise plenty, even though you know it
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: wasn't quite obvious what it was rising on. What are
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  Speaker 1: the risks out there that people are are using golds
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  Speaker 1: to hedge for. Well, thanks for having me on UM.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: As we've seen, volatility has been essential part of the
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: gold trade. Recently, I think the return of risk on
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: sentiment has robbed gold of some of its appeal, and
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: in the short run we should expect UM some more
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: volatility with in or trading volumes. This week with the
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  Speaker 1: Thanksgiving holiday. But once the dust settles on the vaccine
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  Speaker 1: news and this protracted election transition, I believe that the
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  Speaker 1: attention of the gold market will return back to the fundamentals,
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  Speaker 1: and that mainly means the FED, UM and other central banks.
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  Speaker 1: In fact, we've seen that the ECB has come out
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  Speaker 1: and reiterated its commitment to supporting markets. UM. Beijing just
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  Speaker 1: recently sold his first negative yielding bonds, and this is
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  Speaker 1: about the most doublish that the FED Federal Reserve has
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  Speaker 1: been in a generation. All of that leads me to
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  Speaker 1: believe that currencies are going to take a hit going forward. UM.
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  Speaker 1: It seems like a pretty reasonable expectation that the dollar
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  Speaker 1: will slump a bit heading into next year and beyond,
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  Speaker 1: and that's rather positive for commodities as a whole. Another
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  Speaker 1: development that we all know has been a rather strange
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  Speaker 1: year for markets, there's no denying that, and one aspect
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  Speaker 1: of that is that the gold market has really shrugged
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  Speaker 1: off any sasonality. UM, any of the normal seasonal flows.
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  Speaker 1: I've really been ignored UM. And as I said, I
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  Speaker 1: think as the news calms down a bit in the
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  Speaker 1: coming weeks, that we will actually see seasonality reassert itself.
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  Speaker 1: So that means the traditional wedding season in India and
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  Speaker 1: the fact that in a few weeks we have the
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  Speaker 1: Chinese lunar New Year coming up. All of that signals
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  Speaker 1: that we're going to see a resurgence in physical demand
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  Speaker 1: for gold coming from the East. So it's interesting. Uh Ever,
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  Speaker 1: just looking at gold here, spot called up about year today,
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  Speaker 1: but it feels kind of range bound here. You know,
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  Speaker 1: we is there a call here where gold gets to
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  Speaker 1: back up to two thousand dollars announced? Absolutely, I think
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  Speaker 1: that it's the gold bowls will have to be patient
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  Speaker 1: for that. Um. There is a lot of noise and
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  Speaker 1: a lot of stuff obviously going on over these next
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  Speaker 1: few weeks. But um, you know, when you look at
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  Speaker 1: some of the sales numbers from like the United States Mint,
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  Speaker 1: there are prong one million hounces of total gold sales
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  Speaker 1: for the calendar year. That's already about five times higher
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  Speaker 1: than we saw for all of two thousand nineteen. So
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  Speaker 1: from a cyclical perspective, I believe we're in the early
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  Speaker 1: innings of another bull market for commodities generally. And uh,
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  Speaker 1: if gold, you know, has maybe lost some of its
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  Speaker 1: safe Hagan appeal, I would point to its role as
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  Speaker 1: a bet against the dollar, or really a hedge against
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  Speaker 1: that potential paradigm shift in the dollars status. We've seen
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  Speaker 1: this continued trend where economic power and trade supremacy is
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  Speaker 1: tilting more towards China in the East than it really
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  Speaker 1: ever has. And what you find is that in that
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  Speaker 1: region of the world, those countries are rather united in
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  Speaker 1: finding a more neutral reserve asset as a central part
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  Speaker 1: of monetary policy. That could be really anything other than
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  Speaker 1: the hegemonic US dollar, but in this case it's typically gold,
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  Speaker 1: and that does have profound implications for the next twenty
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  Speaker 1: to five years of economic history. The last time we
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  Speaker 1: saw a meaningful realignment of what you might call global
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  Speaker 1: dollar policy was more than thirty five years ago with
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  Speaker 1: the Planet Accord, and I'm not alone in thinking that
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  Speaker 1: some similar adjustment of that arrangement, or a reset, if
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  Speaker 1: you will, is going to be necessary in the coming decades.
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  Speaker 1: Based upon the current macro trends that we're seeing, it's
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  Speaker 1: a fairly reasonable assumption that whatever that realignment looks like
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  Speaker 1: with respect to the dollar um it's likely to be
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  Speaker 1: rather positive for gold. So to answer your question, you know,
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  Speaker 1: gold really is uh, behaving as a hedge against any
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  Speaker 1: sort of currency weakness, the dollar included. So who are
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  Speaker 1: these days considers bitcoin a Persson metal. Well, as you
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  Speaker 1: said at the top, it's it's getting more precious by
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  Speaker 1: the day, isn't it. Um. It's not entirely surprising to
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  Speaker 1: me to see bitpoint bitcoin getting a lot more attention
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  Speaker 1: and a lot more hype now for many of the
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  Speaker 1: same reasons I just described with gold. Um. There is
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  Speaker 1: sort of a generational or cyclical shift going on in
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  Speaker 1: monetary policy, and bitcoin offers some alternative to the standard
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  Speaker 1: dollar as a global reserve currency. Now, I don't mean
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  Speaker 1: to suggest that it will popp all the dollar uh
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  Speaker 1: in the next few months here, or even maybe in
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  Speaker 1: the next two or three years, but it really does
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  Speaker 1: deserve the attention it's getting because we're in uncharted territory
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  Speaker 1: as far as central bank policy goes. So I think
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  Speaker 1: bitcoin will continue to get attention, it will continue to
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  Speaker 1: absorb some of these alternate dollar or alternate currency bets
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  Speaker 1: that investors are making. Hey, every thirty seconds here spots silver.
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  Speaker 1: I see is up thirty two year to date. That
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  Speaker 1: kind of gets lost in some of the discussions here
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  Speaker 1: what's the call on silver here? Right? Silver has maintained
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  Speaker 1: some positive momentum. Um. It benefits from the fact that
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  Speaker 1: it is partly an industrial metal. So as we've seen
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  Speaker 1: with copper rallying, uh, silver has held up a little
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  Speaker 1: bit better than gold. The main thing I'm launching with
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  Speaker 1: silver has been some instability in Latin America. UM. I
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  Speaker 1: think Peru is on its third president in the Spain
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  Speaker 1: of about a week. UM. So many of the major
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  Speaker 1: silver producing countries in Latin America seeing some political instabilities
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  Speaker 1: from unrest that could affect the silver supply and drive
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  Speaker 1: prices higher going forward. Ever, thank you so much for
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  Speaker 1: joining us. We always appreciate chatting with you, getting your
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  Speaker 1: thoughts on all things on the precious metal side of
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  Speaker 1: the business. Everett Millman, precious Metal Specialists for Gainesville Coins,
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  Speaker 1: based in Gainesville, Florida. Well, it is time to bring
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  Speaker 1: in bankers the world. Bill rose to talk to us
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  Speaker 1: a little bit about what exactly is happening virtually this year,
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  Speaker 1: and given that we're just off the G twenty, we're
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  Speaker 1: better at to start than at the G twenty. Bill,
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  Speaker 1: what were the conversations that sort of struck you that
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  Speaker 1: we're taking place at the G twenty this year of
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  Speaker 1: all years. Well versall, Ronnie, it's very good to be
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  Speaker 1: with you and Paul again. This meeting was unusual in
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  Speaker 1: the sense that um it was the first one chaired
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  Speaker 1: by an hour member of the of the Group of twenty.
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  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabian reod obviously was done virtually and the whole
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  Speaker 1: idea he was to concentrate on on COVID uh pandemic
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  Speaker 1: UH and the fallout on the world economy, because the
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  Speaker 1: first one of these was held by George Bush Jr.
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  Speaker 1: At the time of the the Great economic Recession to
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  Speaker 1: try and see what the economic response could be. So
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  Speaker 1: what was covered here was basically, UH, the economy UH.
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  Speaker 1: They got into climate change UH. And obviously what could
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  Speaker 1: be done about speeding of vaccines and making sure they
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  Speaker 1: were equally distributed around the world. UH, And the whole
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  Speaker 1: question of world trade given how the economy of the
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  Speaker 1: world is going. But there were no Pacific new UH,
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  Speaker 1: let's say initiatives put forward here. Bill, what's the role
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  Speaker 1: of China in kind of the global discussion these days
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  Speaker 1: as relates to the G twenty and other forms. I
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  Speaker 1: am very important question, Paul, because the only economy UH
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  Speaker 1: member in the sense of membership in the Group of
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  Speaker 1: twenty who has an economy that's going to grow as China.
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  Speaker 1: All of the others, including the United States and Europe,
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  Speaker 1: will be a negative GDP for this year and China
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  Speaker 1: will show a growth rate of two and as the
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  Speaker 1: world's second largest economy and the only G twenty country
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  Speaker 1: that's growing um UH. It is very very important and
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  Speaker 1: what they do there is very very important. And one
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  Speaker 1: of the issues is that China is not a member
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  Speaker 1: of the Paris Club where you restructure official debt um.
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  Speaker 1: They would only agree to be an observer UH there.
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  Speaker 1: And there's a lot of questions about the transparency of
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  Speaker 1: their loans to the emerging markets which have been so
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  Speaker 1: hard hit by covid UH. The estimate of the Keel
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  Speaker 1: Institute is UH China has something over five hundred billion
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  Speaker 1: five hundred thirty billion aboutstanding loans the places like Africa,
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  Speaker 1: Southeast Asia, parts of Latin America, and they haven't been
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  Speaker 1: willing to enter the longer term discussions on debt relief.
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  Speaker 1: They did go along with the debt relief program of
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  Speaker 1: the that was put forward at the annual meetings the
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  Speaker 1: I m F World Bank, which were extended for six
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  Speaker 1: more months after the original year, but people like David
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  Speaker 1: Malpas and uh the I m F. David Malpas being
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  Speaker 1: the head of the World Bank, wanted to extend it
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  Speaker 1: for a full year. So China is doing less than
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  Speaker 1: in order to be doing to help these emerging economies
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  Speaker 1: really get back to normalization here by not willing to
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  Speaker 1: come forward on disclosure as they should as the other
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  Speaker 1: countries do, and be willing to restructure over longer periods
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  Speaker 1: of time that that that they've given out in the
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  Speaker 1: One Belt, One Road. So that's all very well and good,
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  Speaker 1: but there's a lot of uncertainty out there right now,
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  Speaker 1: and you know, can trying to afford to be so
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  Speaker 1: generous at a time when trade is of the air
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  Speaker 1: trade of the United States, trade with Europe, trade with Britain, um.
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  Speaker 1: You know, it's it's not quite clear that China's through
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  Speaker 1: the woods either. Yes, regarding COVID, well, they have controlled
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  Speaker 1: it because obviously the system of China is basically a dictatorship,
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  Speaker 1: and so they've been able to control the outbreak since
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  Speaker 1: the original one in Wuhan at the end of last year.
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  Speaker 1: The beginning of this year, and so their economy has
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  Speaker 1: been able to come back much quicker and stronger than
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  Speaker 1: any of the other economies. UH. The estimate of the
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  Speaker 1: I m F is that this year as a whole,
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  Speaker 1: two thousand twenty, the world economy is going to actually
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  Speaker 1: be a negative territory four point four percent, which didn't
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  Speaker 1: even happen at the worst moment of the Great Recession.
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  Speaker 1: So that gives you a picture of the effect of
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  Speaker 1: COVID has had on on the world economy. And David
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  Speaker 1: Malpas estimates at the head of the World Bank that
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  Speaker 1: during the course of this year will have seen a
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  Speaker 1: hundred million people pass into extreme prop poverty from the
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  Speaker 1: effects of the corovid UH COVID virus. So, Bill, what
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  Speaker 1: do you think a Biden administration means for UH the
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: US in terms of its global role? Here you came
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: from a time when, you know, the post UH you know,
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  Speaker 1: World War two, Cold War era, where the US really
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: lead an international community. Do you think we can get
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  Speaker 1: back to that? Do you think that's what President like
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Biden wants. I think that's definitely wants to do. He
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  Speaker 1: already said that he will rejoin the Paris Agreement on
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Climate change we're the only major country that hasn't signed
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: off on it. We did originally under Obama and then
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: it was withdrawn by Trump. Also, I think he will
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: try and arrange to get our problems settled with the
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  Speaker 1: World Trade Organization, which is very, very important because we've
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  Speaker 1: been fighting there. So I think in general you will
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  Speaker 1: see a much more consideratory attitude visa VI. I think
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  Speaker 1: our allies in the in the sense of trying to
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  Speaker 1: be more of a positive element in some of these
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  Speaker 1: discussions that are being held and trying to extract us
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  Speaker 1: from this terrible pandemic and it's terrible impact on the
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  Speaker 1: world economy. Bill, Where would you be looking right now
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  Speaker 1: for an example of a healthy economy. Well, I I
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  Speaker 1: already mentioned that the economy that's going to grow the
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  Speaker 1: only one in the G twenties China. But I mean
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  Speaker 1: you wouldn't call it a healthy economy either. Well, it's
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: healthy in the sense of UH having growth, and of
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: course the consumer hasn't come back as they're looking for,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: but their exports have started to trend up, and so
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  Speaker 1: when you look around, they're about the only example, particularly
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: of large countries that you can point out to. And
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: next year is going to be a difficult year also
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: because so much will depend on the vaccine being made
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: available on large quantities around the world. Old also, hopefully
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: there'll be some progress on a treatment right Mark is
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: working on something supposedly similar to uh to Tama flu
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: for the flu. But we're we've still got a long
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: ways to go here. Hey, Bill, thanks so much for
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: joining us. As always, we always appreciate your perspective. Bill Rhodes,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: President and CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, also
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: a former chairman at City Bank. That was Rude Dauber,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Executive vice president and president of Biopharma suitables business unit
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: at Astra Zeneca speaking with Guy Johnson and Alex Steele
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: about their vaccine Vanni. It's it's the third major vaccine
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: to come to the market, lower efficacy rates, but still
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: um a promising drug at this point, right exactly. So
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: an early analysis showing the vaccine stopped an average of
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: seventy participants from falling ill. That rose to one of
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: two regiments. So I think it would be good if
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: you get some analysis from someone he knows a lot
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: about these things well, and we can do that with
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: our good friend Sam Fazzelli. He's a senior pharmaceutical analysts
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence. His day job is also the head
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: of the research business for Bloomberg Intelligence all across Europe. Sam,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: you know, we this is the third major company to
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: bring UM a vaccine to market. Give us your thoughts
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: on this astro Zeneca Oxford vaccine yep, Guy high poem Bonny.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So you know, I've listened to what what Rod just said,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: just said, so you know, and I do think that
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: it's very harsh to call us seven you precent effective
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: vaccine useless because it's it's not true UM even at
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: that level if that turned out to be the level
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: of efficacy, and we don't know, they don't know. That
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: division between the kind of doses is a little bit
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: um kind of academic at the minute, until we know
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: the background to it and that that's sufficient to help
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: many many countries with a vaccine that is easy to
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: ship and cost very little relatively speaking. So it is
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: it is a useful vaccine to have. It's just not
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: it didn't show the same sort of efficacy which were
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: worried about relative to UM that our fighter and BioNTech
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: and MODERNA. So just to finish that line. The question
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: now is does this mean that the vaccine's durability is
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: also lower. That's something we have to wait and find out,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: right and we don't really know about the durability of
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: any of the vaccines right now. Some explain to us, though,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: what exactly all of these numbers means. So the vaccine
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: stopped an average of participants falling ill, which rose to
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: for one of two regiments. So if he used half
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: of those followed by a full one, that gave you
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: a nine chance. But then later on we learned that
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: the two full doses showed an efficacy of sixty What
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: does all this mean that it depends on how you
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: receive the dosage, or it could us be um just
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: random numbers. The reality is that when you look at
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: the other group that had the ninety percent efficacy, it's
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: that the sort of numbers only if you remember with
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Finds Interim at thirty two cases and all that we
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: were very worried about getting a forced read, and here
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: we're at that sort of number in that group of people.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: We just need the company to do more analysis to
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: give us more data. Why they chose to put this
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: out today rather than I think he said that in
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: a few days time they'll have more detail. Why didn't
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: they just wait until inn It's just a little bit
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: beyond me, So Sam, it seems to me and I
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: guess this is not surprising. But it's competitive here between
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: these companies too. It seems like they're all trying to
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: one up each other and maybe talking up their particular
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: vaccine at the expense of others. So at the end
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: of the day, I guess what I'm learning is every
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Monday morning, it seems it's not merger Monday, it's vaccine
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: in Monday, and those companies are really trying to I guess,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: best position themselves. So this still is a commercial. It's
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: a business, isn't it it is. That's a good one, Paul.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: I just hope it's not next Monday, because I'm hoping
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: to take a half the day off. The issue is,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: funnily enough, for after it's the least important of all
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: they're not. They're selling this at cost. Fither I get BioNTech,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I get Moderna I get, but they're selling this at cost.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: So what is the point of this if we is
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: there some kind of political pressure on them? Because the
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: UK and Europe are very dependent on this vaccine and
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: they don't have enough doses of the fires of BioNTech
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: and modern A vaccine contract for next year. The US
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: is different. The US has enough of those two vaccines
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: to cover all its population. So now here we are
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: perhaps they're being pushed to to come up with a
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: positive answer too, because we need our people to feel
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: good as they go to Christmas. That kind of thing. Well,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: there's not can be app at refrigerator temperatures, which is
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: great news. But also Astra expects to have more than
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: three hundred million dollars ready to ship globally by the
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: end of the first quarter of next year, with about
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: one two hundred million dollars being produced monthly. How does
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: that compare with what can be produced by the other
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: vaccine companies. Yeah, so I think finds that I've talked
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: about one point um one point three billion dosars next year,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: or just over a billion dozars next year. Moderna are
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: not far off into the into the high hundreds of millions. Frankly,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: we were all we know, we we were not have
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: enough vaccine doses next year to inarculate everybody around the
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: world unless every vaccine worked. So it may end up
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: being that you just take your astra vaccine because you
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: pay me a little for it. You get your population
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: as much as you can vaccinated, assuming they come through
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the door knowing that the vaccine is potentially less effective
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: than some other vaccine at some point in the future,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: and then go back to them as Okay, now we're
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: going to give you the next one to give you
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: a real hardcore boost. But that needs to be studied. So, Sam,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I think you know, at the beginning of this, when
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: we started speaking to you and the other folks in
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: the business, we were told to expect, Hey, if you
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: get efficacy efficacy rates of sixty, that's a really good number.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: And then we got you know, those two Fightser and
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the the other one Mode Owner with did we just
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: get spoiled? There? Is this still a good number? It's
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: exactly the phrase I used in something else I'm writing
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: for spoiled. We are we were spoiled. We would nobody
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: expected those, which is why we got the jubilation that
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: we did. But the fact is that they're there, and
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: we've kind of got a corroboration from two independent companies
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: using a similar technology that gives you that number. So
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: you can get that for this virus. The point is
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: Aster didn't manage it so far. We just have to
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: get more detailed. I'm not ready to completely be them
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: up for certainly they didn't deserve to be up for
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: severy percent. That's a pretty good achievement. As it is.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: In the world of vaccines you mentioned, you know, taking
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: one and then taking another and seeing how that would work.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: What happens when someone gets two different kinds of vaccines
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: for something. Is it automatically true that they will be
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: more vaccinated? Um? Not necessarily, and you do have to
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: study it. So for instance, there are two shingles vaccines
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: out there, one that Merk Pharmaceuticals had for years excuse me,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: and then TLAX of Smith client comes with a much
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: more effective one later. Currently you're advised to wait five
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: years once you've had one the mark one, before you
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: take the glacks of one. But until somebody doesn't study
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: and say, actually, look you're fine, or we're doing it
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: giving you a booster, you can't really be sure. So
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: you have to you have to take that with a
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: pinch of salt. Same give us the the economics with
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: these vaccines here you mentioned astra is going to do it,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: I guess roughly at cost. They're not looking to make
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: a profit. How does how are those decisions made? Is
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: it a political thing, a regulatory thing? Is it just
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: a business decision? No? No, no. After I've never had
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: a vaccine's business, and they went into this, could I
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: say for the for the love of humanity and the
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: fact that I think we all need to get our
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: businesses back on track and get the world back to normal. Um.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: They did, they they you know, they went out right
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: at the beginning, just like Johnson and Johnson did. And
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Johnson and Johnson does have a vaccine's business, not necessarily
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: the biggest in the world, but it does have researching
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: vaccine at least. Um. So you know, they both said
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: the same thing. We're not going to make money on
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the pandemic during the pandemic. So if there's a use
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: potential for the vaccine after the pandemic, like an annual
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: boost their requirement, then we reserve the right. So that's
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: not their phrases I'm paraphrasing, we reserve the right to
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: make a profit. Fitherer and Mother never did that. They
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: just went out and said, Okay, we're going to make
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: the money out of this, so and ASTRA did take
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: money from the government's various governments, quite a bit of money. Actually,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: where will these companies compete internationally? So will some of
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: them be more likely to distribute to you underdeveloped countries
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: and poorer countries and some less? So, you know, I
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: I'd really hesitate to say to answer that question, because
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: if you assume at the end of the day that
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: the astro vaccine is not asificate effective as the others,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: and you say, okay, well let's have that in the
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: developing world, that really is not a message that I
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: would like to be talking to anybody about at the
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: end of the day. But perhaps to say, here is
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: the vaccine that I can get to you easily, to
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: every corner of your country with just the fridge or refrigerator. Sorry, um,
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: then that's a different message. So we just have to
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: be very careful with the messaging here. I think, unfortunately
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: it's going to be a lot of people are going
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: to think twice about going to get the astro vaccine,
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: and I don't know what this will do to their
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: recruitment in their in their US trial. Yeah, so Sam,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: the scientists, um, you know, really are coming through with
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: some some great science here coming up with the vaccines.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: What are the companies that we should be looking at
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: or thinking about um in terms of producing and distributing
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: and you know, storing these things. Are there some companies
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: that do this or do the astros Nachas of the
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: world in the in the fists of the world do
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: that themselves. Yeah, well, so you know, Paul that that's
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: not really my area in terms of but we know
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: that Corning is making a very special glass that's required
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: for these glass files and they would need billions of them, right.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: We know that Catalan and Emergent bios Solutions and lawns
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: are are are manufacturing partners for many of these companies.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: So they are all and I think if you look
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: at those share price charts you'll see a similar response
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: early on when these vaccines started working out. So there
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: will be the partners that will be helping manufacture. In
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: term the distribution it needs to be, it's going to
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: be government work. And you know, you've heard about the
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: military getting involved in the US. You've heard about Walgreens
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: and pharmacists getting involved in the US. So it's it's
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: a pretty broad group of companies and organizations that need
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: to get involved. Some the researchers that have been working
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: on these vaccines, do you know, and not suggesting that
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: you you would, but just on the off off chance
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: that you do know what they had been working on
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: before and what we might now have to wait a
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: longer time for because resources were switched to vaccine, you know,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: covid vaccine production. That's a very good question. I think
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: the researchers that many of the people who started working
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: on this are folks who are in the immunology of
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: microbiology virology background, and I think this is what they do.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: We do have a virus that's running a mark in
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: the world, and basically that's their bread and butter. They
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: try and understand and solve those things. In terms of research.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: You know, it's less the effects are secondary effects are
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: lower diagnoses of diseases because people have not been able
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: to consider the doctors um and you know, with these
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: antibodies and things that are coming through with the requirements
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: for IVY infusions, you've got the issue with um uh
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: you know I V centers. Infusion centers. Now that's where
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: cancer patients go to get their uh their drugs. You
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: don't really want COVID infected patients in there too, So
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: those are the side effect are thinking. But from a
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: research perspective, I don't think we're seeing anything diverted away
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: from anything. Um, it's just it's just additional, Sam, do
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: you think I mean, I know, when we again started
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: talking to you about vaccines back in the day several
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: months ago, you know, we're talking about four or five, six,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: seven years for a vaccine to kind of get through approval,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: and now we're looking at a much much more compressed
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: time frame here for the COVID vaccines. Do you think
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: this will have a permanent change to how vaccines do
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: get approved in the future, showing that it can be
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: done on a quicker time frame. Well, so, I think Paul,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: that we certainly are have learned that you don't have
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: to have those massive time frames. Everything was done in series.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: It is possible to get things done in parallel, but
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: that does have a cost because the FDA and the
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: regulators will get involved. That's one of the things back
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: to Vonnie's question. They only have so much resources. If
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: they're going to have to be doubling up resources on
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: speeding something up, that means they're taking it away from
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: something else. So and I think with some of the
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: companies have since that a little bit with the gost
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: to FDA responses. So does this change? We certainly have
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: learned that we can do things quicker, and I believe
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: that that going forward that we would be learning to
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: reduce the massive timelines, a lot of which is taken
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: in regulatory there I say, bureaucracy. Um, so that we
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: don't we don't spend so much time on just selling
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: out paperwork. And that's obviously good for the companies and
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: good for patients. Yeah, absolutely so. So some you know,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: the numbers are rising all over. Tell us about Europe.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, we pretty much know what's happening in the
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: United States. How bad is it across the Europe? Where
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: is it rising? Yes? So in Europe, I think the
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: majority of countries have turned it around. France, where I live,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: has got below the twenty number. I mean you you
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: get the odd days where you get a case count
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: where somebody forgot to count something the day before, these
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: kind of things. Um, but they have certainly turned the corner.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: The UK has has turned the corner or plateaued. Belgium
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: has turned the corner. I think Spain is plateauing, so
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: most of the countries the efforts have spent, which is
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: not shocking because the virus that gets transmitted when you
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: and I meet face to face, we've reduced that. Therefore,
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: thank god, the number of cases are falling, so it's
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: only in the right direction. So but I suspect that
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: they will be very careful when it comes to the
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: circles reopening. Hey, Sam, thanks so much for joining us.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: As always, we appreciate your expertise. Sam Fazelli, Senior Pharmaceutical
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He also manages the European research
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: business for Bloomberg Intelligence. And Vonnieu. We really appreciate getting
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: Sam's insights here. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.