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Special Guest Daryl Ritchison on Weather · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies before your search is over, come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Today is April 8th, and I am honored to have on this week's guest, Daryl Richardson, on the show.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Daryl is currently the director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network through NDSU, and he's a profession uh professional meteorologist uh for over 20 years of experience here and in forecasting in all regions of the country for differing industries.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: His work in short and long-range forecasting areas for the general public.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Agriculture, wind, and energy groups are well known all across the country.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: So Daryl is a dynamic public speaker to pretty much all ages, and he has a very nice uh over a thousand talks given in the past couple decades, and we are very excited to have you on the show this week.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, thank you for taking the time, Daryl.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, it's just great to be on your show.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I am looking forward to hearing, you know, it's a fantastic time to have a conversation like this.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: We're only two days away from the early plant date on corn in South Dakota, and I just wanted to catch your uh your take on how weather looks for this area, particularly in the northwestern corn belt, uh, going into spring, and then kind of for the whole corn belt in general for the spring and uh what you have uh for planting period time frame for weather and whatnot.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: So what do you got for me today?
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the very interesting thing about that is I think so much will and honestly will in some ways depend on where the storm tracks next week.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and that would have the potential to set things back a couple of weeks um for in the sense of both moisture and also temperatures.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: I think no matter where it tracks or how that ends up playing out, one way or the other, I think it's going to stay cold for the next two weeks.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_01: Because even if it ends up tracking farther south and east, and the area is not as impacted as um other scenarios would be, that would still keep us cold.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: But you know, the odds favor um moisture, uh probably the farther west you are, the odds would favor um snow, the farther east you are, it would favor rain or even thunderstorms, uh, especially I think in the southeastern part of South Dakota would be the best area for you know thunderstorm activity.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: But again, that will either way keep us cold.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: So I think the odds favor a little bit later planting um than most people would want.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: Number one, um, I forecast through this methodology called analogs, and I've been doing it for a very long time.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: And if you never have heard me speak before, analogs are really what I do is look look in the past.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: Where were there similar scenarios to what's happening right now, especially oceanic, because the oceans are 70% of the planet, the heat capacity of the planet's in the water, not the atmosphere.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: So it has a big influence on what happens.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, my analog set has you know the spring a little a little cooler than average and probably a little bit wetter than average across much of the northern plains.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: So North, South Dakota, Minnesota, probably eastern Montana, which again would hint to uh a little bit of delays in the um in planting, but on a positive note, the areas that are still dry uh would probably bring a little bit more moisture going forward.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: So at least in the short term, you know, that's was my current thinking.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Nice.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's been a roller coaster of a last couple of years really, and then uh to start off this spring as well, they have the old farmer adage of, you know, a late Easter is a late spring, right?
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: So I uh I'm continually watching what this storm is gonna do here this next week, uh, what our early planting time frame is gonna be.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: And then I think a lot of us, especially in this area, you know, closer to Two Falls, South Dakota here, we were happen to be in one of the drier parts of the United States this year.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of the states east of us all had record corn yields last year, soybean yields as well.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Um, how do you think we're sitting in the Dakotas uh compared to normal for uh for moisture right now?
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: And are you worried about where we're headed into the uh summer months?
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, if you were going to go back to my analog package, you know, and I probably I know I presented this to um literal thousands of people this winter, um, and I really see no reason um sitting here um yet today.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: I gave I think what my last um seasonal forecast of my speaking season yesterday.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but I think going forward is I think you know, and it's the problem with long-range forecasting is always we are in a thunderstorm-dominated summer rainfall pattern.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's the randomness of the rain.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: So everything I'm about to say, you always have to remember is as a general rule, you know, last year there were areas that had adequate moisture and even surplus moisture.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't the general rule, but there were pockets of that.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: But I thought, you know, say North and South Dakota still drier than average in 2022, like last year, but not as dry.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: Warmer than average, like last year, but not as warm as last year.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_01: So as you trend east, though, you know, Indiana, Illinois in particular were pretty wet last year.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: That's the area where I think they're going to have a drier than they had last year, if not even a little bit drier than average.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: Iowa was a mixed bag last year, generally a little bit drier than average, depending on what statistical tool you want to use, but they would be similar uh to last year.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: So overall, I would describe that as a dry flavor of the summer again.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: And but temperature is cooler than last year.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: But here's, you know, the thing here is that that's a change from last year.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: But again, I think many parts of the Dakotas into Montanas and the prairie provinces, you know, say if you're thinking and they'll throw spring wheat into the equation, you know, that'll probably be you know a little bit better year.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: But all of this equates to, I think we'll start off pretty good, but then just slowly dry out.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: So the farther we go into the growing season, you know, the drier that it actually will become.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: So are you uh are you very worried about this summer's crops, you think, uh compared to history on an average trend line?
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: Like the USTA is using their trend line yield of 180 plus on corn yield.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: Um we haven't really got there before a 177 type uh top range on the yield.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: Um, do you think that is capable of happening this year?
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: Or what's your uh prediction on some things like that?
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: You know, again, it's always a forecast.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: No one knows the future.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: I jokingly always say I know I don't know the future.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just crazy enough to forecast it for a living for 30 years.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: You know, some one of those crazy people.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: If my analog package is reasonably close, I almost I mean, my analog package last year was just almost spot on.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: But if my analog package is this year, I would say it would be very difficult to get um the corn yields that is anticipated by the USDA and a lot of other forecasters.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: It would be on the low side or maybe even a little bit lower.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: But you know, one thunderstorm complex, sometimes those thunderstorm complexes can hit two or three states.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: And if it's timed perfectly, say around August 1st, then poof, okay, now the corn has enough to live on.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: And the other thing we have to remember is not everywhere, but you know, the um, especially Illinois and Indiana, you know, they had moisture last year, they're still getting some moisture.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: We have a big storm coming.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: You know, corn can always go down and get the moisture, you know.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: So corn can live, you know, they can go down and get it.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean yields, with my scenario, would I think struggle even more than corn is because it can't go down and get the moisture.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: You know, soybeans not going to go down to 30 inches to find moisture more often than not.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_01: And so, and you of course the beans, as the old saying goes, August rain smakes beans, exactly, um, is is a very crucial time.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: And if and again, if my analog package is correct and it just slowly dries out, the general trend would be more areas than not, not getting the moisture content that they want.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: There will be pockets in the driest of years.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: You get pockets where it does really fine.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: But the overall trend would be for most areas to finish, end up finishing the growing season with below average rainfall.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: How far below rainfall is so much dependent on the yields?
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: But again, if my analog package is correct, I would lean towards that it would be tough to get to the um limits that say that you just mentioned from the USDA.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: Nice.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: So, how about a little bit more macro?
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: Like if we start talking cycles and hundred-year charts, things like that, um, what kind of cycle do you think we're in?
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, uh, we've had a lot of talk recently about the last 10 years and or eight years and how dry it's been compared to history.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: Um, going forward, are we changing out of this drier cycle?
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: Or what's your more macro sense of weather?
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: Well, here's the thing.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: Um, not to disagree with you, but we've been in a wet cycle.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: You know, most areas have been wetter than they have been historically, uh, statistically speaking.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: And the thing is, I'm I've been saying for a long time that once we get into the 2020s, that we'll probably transition back to the 20th century mean average.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um, for instance, uh this is true um in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and really even into Illinois and Indiana.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: Most regions that you know, most of us have switched um know this, but the new averages came out last year uh in 2021.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: So averages are the last 30 years in whole decades.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: So in 2020, 2020 is the last of the 19 and the 20 teens.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: It's not the beginning of the 2020s, it's the last year of the 20 teens.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: So whole decades go from one to zero.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: So last year, the summer of 2021, all of last year, the averages are now based on 1991 to 2020.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: In 2020, the averages were based on 1981 to 2010.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: So what happened is we replaced the 1980s with the 20 teens.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: And these current averages are gonna be with us until the year 2031 when they will switch over again.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_01: So these are the same averages we're gonna have all decade long.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: Most areas have been above the current 30-year average, again, that 1991 to 2020 average, only 30% of the time.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: So just statistics, statistics are not a forecast, but just statistically, the odds are in most areas, and again, all of North Dakota, all of South Dakota, much of Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, even Ohio, this is true.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: That most areas that you have statistically only uh a 70% chance of being below that current average.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_01: But as I remind everybody in every talk I give, averages do not make crops rain dust.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_01: So just because the average, because you know, because we've been in the you know the 90s, the early 2000s, that this 30-year cycle has been in now wetter than other periods through the 20th century.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_01: You'd have to go back to the late 1800s, early 1900s to find a similar scenario.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_01: So, my point is that you might have many years in the 2020s with below average um precipitation.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: But does that necessarily mean you're going to get below average yields?
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: Because 2021, most you know, it was a dry year, but if we use the old statistics, the old averages from 1990, uh 1981 to 2010, it wasn't nearly as dry.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: Instead of being 80 percent um 70 percent of normal, you'd then say 82 percent of normal.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_01: And so I always tell people if you're playing with um futures, you know, look at what has actually fallen, not the average, because everyone will look at a map and go, oh, look, this area is only you know, this whole area is only 75 to 80 percent of normal.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: Wow, that's really, really dry.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: No, it's really, really dry based on the new averages.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: Historically, it's very close to average.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: And so it can kind of trick you into thinking that they're doing worse than they actually are, is my point.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: And so to answer your question, I think we'll have several drier than average years in the 2020s based on the current average, but are they necessarily dry from a historical perspective?
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_01: It's how you want to look at it.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: You know what um old a Mark Twain quote, lies damn lies in statistics.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you know, it can come into play, you know, because again, if you know, if you have this much rain and this much um solar radiation and all this, it's gonna and get that will get you, say, 227 bushel an acre corn in Iowa.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: Well, do you need that extra, do you need all the rain to get the average?
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: You can still do that on 88% of that.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: You know, again, you have it's how you look at it.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: I always tell people when you're doing markets, when you're trying to do yield analysis, don't so many people just will look at um, well, you're above or below average.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: It's more complicated than that.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_01: Most people realize it, but it's the simple chart to look at is actually how much rain fell in that area, not how much it's above or below average.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: Because the average is kind of a made-up statistic.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's a great note to carry into this uh into this marketing year that I'd like to follow going forward too.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_00: And we'll keep in touch with you going forward on that as well.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: But how about the guys west of us?
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: You know, uh, some of those Cal CAF guys have been struggling really hard the past couple years.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: Do you see their tide turning for them anytime soon, or are we gonna continue some cow liquidation out there?
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's a very dry climate historically, and you know, they had some good years with this little weather phase within um our our climate type.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, this past winter, um, and you know, from my perspective, I get most of my calls in the western, you know, eastern Montana and Western North Dakota.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I have weather stations.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: What I do as the director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network impacts that area.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: And so those are the calls I get far more than down into South Dakota, although there's some northwestern um South Dakota people that I do contact with.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: I've told them, you know, this winter looks dry to me in your area, which it you know sadly was.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: And I go, but the pattern that we're in is very conducive to late March and April big storms.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: That's your big time frame.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: Can we get you a big storm?
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: Next week, by coincidence, well, here it is, four months after, you know, I tell these, you know, that this is the best time frame.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not surprised that the pattern went to that.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_01: It's just a matter of will this like this storm, how far west will it go?
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: You know, um, and will they get the moisture?
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: The negative note is if they do get moisture in say western, north and south Dakota, northeastern Wyoming, eastern Montana, yeah, it's really high, it's gonna be snow.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: You know, they're also depends on who you are.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_01: There's still calving going on um and some areas, so big snow would be a negative on that, but a positive.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: But I always said I think if you're gonna get at least that first cutting of hay to be a good one, you know, we need you're gonna need that storm in April.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, we'll see where next week's storm tracks.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it's a very negative, but I think overall when we're gonna get a couple more good chances because I think the spring overall will be conducive to more um precipitation events than say what happened over the winter, and hopefully we can do it.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: But I think the long-term outlook for that area is, you know, sadly for them, probably more dry than wet.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: Very nice.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well, as we wrap up here with the United States, I kind of want to break break out quick into more of a global sense.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we live in a global market today.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, what would you have to say about the different weather patterns we've seen, not just here in the United States and North America, but in South America and or in places like China as well.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: Any main comments for uh for the global weather?
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, if we want to talk, you know, short term, um, you know, say the safrina, the second corn crop in Brazil, um, you know, they have been drying down.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_01: You know, they have more of a drier, uh wet season, dry season, they're transitioning into that.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: But you know, they've had some adequate moisture.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_01: I just gave actually I gave this week a global talk on all these areas on a Zoom call with a global audience.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: I think someone was on the call from every continent.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um it was that I think you know, the negative always makes the news.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's just human nature.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: And I I go, I think, you know, the Safrina crop, nothing's perfect, but I think it's going to do a little bit better than I think some people are giving it credit for, but probably not as good as what other people are giving it credit for.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't see any huge concern, some regional, localized, certainly it's the weather.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: Again, same thing.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: Thunderstorms, rain doesn't fall evenly across the surface.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_01: China, uh, you know, um, you know, last year, a lot of people don't realize this, but last year, you know, if you live in the United States, wow, that was a crazy busy hurricane season.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: The rest of the world, it was as quiet as you could get.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: Last year is pretty much the really in the satellite era, the quietest hurricane season globally.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: And again, in Asia, they call them typhoons and the Indian Ocean, they call them cyclones, but they're all hurricanes globally.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: So this year, probably it'll be a little bit more active in that monsoon.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: That flow does impact China.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_01: You know, my analog set that I use this globally actually has um the main row crop production areas in China, you know, their corn in particular areas actually doing pretty well this year.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: They should have adequate moisture.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_01: Again, in most areas, you know, there's always spots that get missed in that area.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_01: So you touched on those two areas.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: That's how I see, you know, um South America finishing off that that their second season there.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: And then as we get into um China, you know, at least um it looks promising in the north central and northeastern part of China where it goes, you know, based on my analog package again.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I appreciate your time today.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for coming on, and uh we will definitely look forward to trying to have you on the show again, and it's a perfect time of the year to have this conversation.
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_00: We'll hope to get uh agronomist on the show here soon, and uh thank you for your time once again.
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, you're very welcome.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's a pleasure.