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Is The U.S. Government CRASHING Bitcoin? | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

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  Something crazy has been happening to Bitcoin.
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  Every time the US government makes a major announcement,
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  Bitcoin crashes. When the strategic Bitcoin
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  Reserve was announced, Bitcoin crashed.
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  When the US sees Bitcoin from a Cambodian hacking operation,
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  Bitcoin crashed. When the US government sees
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  Bitcoin after the Maduro takeover, Bitcoin crashed.
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  So it raises the question almost nobody is asking Has the US
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  government been responsible for Bitcoin's biggest sell off?
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  This wasn't on my radar until listening to a fascinating
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  interview. And if that's true, then the
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  recent drop may not have been a sign of weakness at all.
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  Bitcoin isn't just another asset, it's the asset people run
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  towards when the global system becomes unstable.
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  Today, we're going to break down why Bitcoin may be selling after
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  the government's actions, why 3 macro experts believe Bitcoin to
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  reach one and a half million dollars, and why Bitcoin is the
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  asset of instability in the age of AI.
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  This is Dante Coke with Bitcoin. Simply, let's go.
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  The Bitcoin sell offs are interesting.
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  So I think something to think through, and this is one of our
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  theories, but we haven't been able to substantiate this yet,
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  is if you look over the course of last year, year and a half,
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  the biggest draw downs in Bitcoin have happened around a
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  few strategic points in time. So the first point was when
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  Trump passed the strategic Bitcoin reserve on the executive
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  order, he gave the government agencies an initial 30 days plus
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  another 30 day on top of that to audit their books and then
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  report back to the strategic reserve how much Bitcoin they
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  held on their books. Then they have to submit it to
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  the treasury for the strategic reserve.
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  Well over that 60 day period, Bitcoin from 108,000 and I think
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  drew down to the high 80s, low 90s.
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  So that was the first draw down. The next big one that we saw was
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  right around when Bitcoin had its all time high and right
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  around that time as well, one of the government agencies seized
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  127,200 Bitcoin approximately from a Cambodian hacking group
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  that was doing these pig butchering scams and stealing
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  people's Bitcoin. The agency received it.
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  At that point in time, Bitcoin drew down significantly.
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  And then we invade Venezuela and there's allegedly 60 billion of
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  Bitcoin in Venezuela at that point in time, Bitcoin draws
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  down significantly. What do you say?
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  So although I haven't been able to substantially, one of my
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  ideas is that if you're a government agency and you know
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  that if you seize Bitcoin from illicit activity and then you're
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  required after a certain period of time to transition that over
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  to the Bitcoin strategic reserve, you don't want to do
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  that theoretically because that's dollars out of your
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  balance sheet in your budget. So if you seize that Bitcoin and
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  you sell some or all of it, you get to keep those dollars.
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  And some of this is 10s of billions of dollars of Bitcoin.
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  And so I think that's possibly one thing that's going on.
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  I haven't been able to substantiate this, but the
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  timing is very indicative that every time one of these big
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  seizures or the initial effectuation of the strategic
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  reserve occurred that Bitcoin drew down pretty hard.
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  And so that's something I've been kind of bouncing around the
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  back of my head that maybe these government agencies are selling
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  a portion of it because they want to keep those dollars on
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  their balance sheet this. Idea of the US government
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  crashing bitcoins price wasn't even on my radar, but when you
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  look at the charts it actually lines up.
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  In January when the US made it clear that they were going to
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  announce the strategic Bitcoin reserve, Bitcoin crashed from
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  1:08 to about 80 K. We never did get an audit of how
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  much Bitcoin the US government actually owned and Beau Hines
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  who was responsible for this suddenly leaves office after
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  being a superstar to run tethers US operations.
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  Kind of interesting, in 2020 the US was involved in a cyber
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  attack that happened on a Bitcoin mining exchange in the
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  Cambodian area. And this is when it was reported
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  a Cambodian billionaire, Chen XI, was involved in a crypto
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  fraud scheme. And somehow the US government
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  was able to hack the wallet of this US Cambodian billionaire
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  who reportedly owned between 15 and $25 billion worth of
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  Bitcoin. And that's when the price
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  crashed from 126 K down to 86 K. And then during the Maduro
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  takeover, it was reported that Venezuela owned $60 billion
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  worth of Bitcoin, mostly to avoid U.S. sanctions while
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  trading oil with China. And that's when Bitcoin crashed
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  from 95 K to the levels that we're seeing now.
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  Now, I'm not saying that the government is manipulating
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  Bitcoin, but when billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin at
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  these low cost basis points hit the market, the price is going
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  to react violently. But here's the key point, short
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  term shocks don't impact Bitcoins long term trajectory.
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  Bitcoin is actually sitting at one of the most oversold levels
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  and it's been in more than a decade.
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  And every time we've seen this level historically, it's a major
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  turning point. And right now we're at a major
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  turning point. Listen to how macro trader and
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  investor Jordy Vesser is handling and positioning his
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  portfolio to deal with the volatility that's coming
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  forward. And we reprice volatility and we
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  reprice credit spreads and we reprice the multiple of the S&P.
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  That's what I believe is happening and I do, I believe
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  the Fed is or whether or not it's not the Fed, the Treasury.
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  I do think the private credit situation is going to need a
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  solution at some point. And when that solution comes in,
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  we all know who the fastest horse in the race is when you
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  come out, which is Bitcoin. So right now, I'm adding things
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  into My Portfolio for volatility to keep the structural positions
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  I want. And then when I think the coast
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  is clear and the 6th contract of VIX gets up to 30, which is
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  where I think it needs to go, we're only at 23.
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  So I think we have months of this left.
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  When it gets up there, I'll get out of my volatility and I'll
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  probably be adding Bitcoin and stuff into that, especially as
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  the private credit situation gets worse.
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  The worse the private credit situation gets, the better it is
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  for Bitcoin. And the reason is you're
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  connecting the two things that I think need to happen.
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  Number one, there is no more cutting rates to make the
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  economy grow because we're already growing.
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  So this is not the Jeff Booth thesis that we have to come in
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  during a deflationary period. But what it is, is what I always
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  believed would happen. The truest AI trade is Bitcoin,
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  and the reason is because eventually AI destroys
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  everything, as Joseph Schumpeter said, because capitalism gets
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  swallowed up by the exponential innovation.
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  And when that happens, you don't have a Moat around your business
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  anymore. So what is the best asset that
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  has no story or narrative or anything?
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  It isn't there. It's just a place to go put your
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  money for appreciation. And I think Bitcoin represents
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  the Fiat system demise at the same time as being the money.
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  So I think that's the way people should deal with this and get to
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  Daily Stoic and trust me, everything will be fine.
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  Now here's where this gets interesting.
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  Jeff Snyder, typically a Bitcoin hater.
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  He says that Bitcoin provides asymmetric returns to the
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  upside. I would buy a ton of Bitcoin.
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  If Bitcoin gets down around, you know, 50,000 or less, if the
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  market overshoots on the downside, I'm going to pack up
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  the truck for Bitcoin or something like silver.
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  Because those are the things that you're going to own in a
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  period of instability, gross instability in a whole lot of
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  different ways, including the economy in the marketplace.
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  So yes, there's a lot of caveats and a lot of ifs and a lot of
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  probabilities. But as those probabilities start
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  to pile up and it looks like more, you know, more concretely,
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  that's where we're going. That's where you really want to
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  be, all the traditional tools that safe haven to get you
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  through unstable periods. I mean, that's cool to hear you
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  talk about Bitcoin in that way because you've you've always
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  been sort of a little sceptical of Bitcoin.
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  Is it just the fact that it's pulled down so much from its
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  highs that you're interested at this point, or have your sort of
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  opinions changed on it slightly? No, my problem with Bitcoin it's
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  not really a problem is it's it's understanding what it is
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  and where it's going. Not price, but actual function.
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  Bitcoin is not replacing the US dollar.
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  Bitcoin is like Bitcoin is competing with gold as a safe
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  haven portfolio asset. That's why it's behaves a lot
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  like the NASDAQ. It's it's competing with the
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  stock market or gold. So people look to Bitcoin as
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  potentially a, you know, since it has a relatively small market
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  cap, there's potentially there's more and more people get
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  interested for any reason. Doesn't matter what it is,
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  there's a lot of upside potential from Bitcoin.
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  Even though it doesn't replace the dollar, it doesn't become
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  the the next big currency. It can still become a highly
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  appreciative asset of speculative asset or you know,
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  store value asset certainly. So if you get, if Bitcoin goes
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  down with that, that level of price appreciation, the
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  asymmetry works in your favor because there are so many long
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  run positives to owning Bitcoin. If we see Bitcoin at 20,000, you
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  got to be buying every last thing that you can, every last
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  bet you can get. When markets get unstable,
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  people search for assets outside of the traditional system and
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  historically this has been gold, silver, land, real estate.
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  But Bitcoin provides digital scarcity in the face when
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  anything can be replicated or copied in the age of AI.
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  It provides portable wealth, borderless ownership, which is
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  why people believe that Bitcoin is the digital gold.
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  And if you know that you own digital gold, well, what if you
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  wanted to unlock liquidity in your assets without selling
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  them? If you've been in Bitcoin long
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  enough, you know that selling your Bitcoin is one of the worst
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  decisions that you can make. Let me give you an example.
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  Like Timothe, who sold his Bitcoin in 2014 to buy a
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  mansion, that Bitcoin today is worth a billion dollars, A real
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  estate development in Lake Tahoe called Mardis Camp Beautiful.
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  And I had owned a couple of lots.
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  And I said, you know, it would be great if I actually could
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  prove that you could buy real estate with Bitcoin.
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  And I called the guys at Bit Pain, and they were like, yeah,
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  we can facilitate this transaction no problem.
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  I bought a piece of land. And then again, I thought, this
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  is an interesting story, and The Wall Street Journal wrote about
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  it. Now that piece of land is a
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  billion dollars, but you you cannot calculate this way,
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  right? So it's easy.
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  I calculated this way every day. You can't calculate it that way
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  because it's stupidest purchase ever.
• 9:07
  No, no, no, no, no. That's why companies like Leaden
• 9:09
  exist. They allow you to take out
• 9:11
  Bitcoin back loans, meaning you keep your Bitcoin while
• 9:14
  accessing the liquidity that you need.
• 9:15
  No selling, no tax event, just your Bitcoin capital converted
• 9:19
  into Fiat. Go to learn dot leaden dot AO
• 9:22
  slash simply to get started and a quick reminder.
• 9:25
  If you're going to own Bitcoin, you need to actually control
• 9:28
  your Bitcoin, which means self your Bitcoin, and that's where
• 9:31
  the Bitcoin way comes in. The Bitcoin way helps
• 9:33
  individuals and families learn how to secure their Bitcoin
• 9:36
  privately, safely, securely, and do so on a node at their own
• 9:40
  house while maintaining their own keys.
• 9:41
  If you don't know what that means, we'll schedule a free 30
• 9:44
  minute meeting with their team. They'll walk you through step by
• 9:46
  step exactly what I'm talking about Go to
• 9:48
  thebitcoinway.com/simply. Bitcoin 2 macro traders in this
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  episode have come to the same conclusion.
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  Bitcoin is the trade that you want to have on in this age of
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  instability, but an even bigger where Bitcoin advocated OG Adam
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  Back says that Bitcoin will reach parity with gold and at
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  that point bitcoins going to be worth $1.5 million per coin.
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  Actually, Bitcoin as an asset class has stood out from
• 10:13
  everything, every other asset class for the last decade,
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  generally in having, you know, the highest annualized return,
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  the best shop ratio. So it's really being an asset,
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  an outlier if you can adapt to the volatility.
• 10:29
  And you know, that was the thesis that Sean Bill BSCRCIO
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  put to the pension fund when he put it into the pension fund.
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  And in that case started in 2019.
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  It took him until 2021 to get Bitcoin in there.
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  But the point there was that if they would buy and hold around
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  2% was his recommendation at that time and and hold it, that
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  could fill that alone could fill the unfunded liabilities of the
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  pension fund. And if it fell, you know, it's a
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  small impact on the fund. So it's really, you know, from
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  that point of view, it's a way to improve overall return while
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  bitcoins on its adoption curve. I think that's the the biggest
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  driver. So, and, and since that time,
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  you know, a number of other firms of Black Rock, Morgan
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  Stanley, Bank of America have put out their own
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  recommendations for Bitcoin allocation and model portfolios.
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  So, you know, it's interesting to see people following that
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  already, you know, half a decade later, but the institutions are
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  starting to form an investment thesis and model portfolios for
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  Bitcoin. It's very difficult to predict
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  Bitcoin price, but you know another another comparison is
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  the digital gold and you know, prospect for Bitcoin to reach
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  parity with gold. That already puts you maybe
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  about a million and a half Bitcoin.
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  Bitcoin has already been the best performing asset over the
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  last decade, and adoption is still early.
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  The demand signals are rising rapidly as people are searching
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  how to buy Bitcoin at levels that we've never seen before.
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  At the same time, people are searching can't sell my house,
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  which shows you the state of the economy that we're in.
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  Traditional assets are becoming harder and harder to move, and
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  Bitcoin moves instantly. So let's return to the question
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  that we started with at the beginning of the episode.
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  Has the US government contributed to these large
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  Bitcoin sell offs? Possibly, but here's the
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  reality. Every sell off causes supply
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  shocks, but that's historically been temporary.
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  The long term demand keeps getting stronger and stronger.
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  Let's go back to 2014 when Tomas bought that house that his
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  Bitcoin position would now be worth a billion dollars.
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  In that same year, $0.50 sold his albums and accepted Bitcoin
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  in exchange and had over 700 Bitcoin at the time that would
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  now be worth over $47 million. He didn't sell.
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  You at your last album, you actually accepted Bitcoin for
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  it? Yeah.
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  Yeah, you know, all money is money.
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  Yeah, that's a very good way of putting it.
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  The biggest mistake in Bitcoin history that you can make is
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  always thinking short term. Bitcoin isn't the stability
• 12:52
  trade, it's the instability trade.
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  If you can learn to stomach the volatility when the market
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  breaks, Bitcoin will move violently.
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  And the more the world becomes unstable, the more a neutral
• 13:01
  reserve asset like Bitcoin will become valuable.
• 13:03
  And so if you're thinking about accumulating more Bitcoin for
• 13:06
  the long term, one of the best ways to do that isn't just
• 13:09
  buying Bitcoin on an exchange, it's through Bitcoin mining.
• 13:12
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• 13:19
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• 13:24
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• 13:27
  Check out SAS mining by using the QR code.
• 13:29
  If you enjoy this content that connects macroeconomics and
• 13:32
  Bitcoin, make sure you subscribe to the channel.
• 13:34
  You're going to understand what's happening in the world
• 13:36
  before everyone else does, and you're going to position
• 13:38
  yourself accordingly. This is Dante Coca Bitcoin
• 13:40
  Simply happy stacking.