Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | April 13, 2024 | UFC 300 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | April 13, 2024 | UFC 300 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:06
All systems going on, Clearing the left, Oh Baby, UFC three hundred
0:40
times, jorm Of my Man, Big Marley as always, Carmen and Chad,
0:44
Jacob Stubbs, Nate d Lone Wolf, Joe An excuse me, ge
0:48
Kiteer, bring the noise, Red Scott Big Drags, Michael Peterson, what
0:53
is going on? Siggy, appreciate everyone hanging out as always. Many of
0:56
you guys I know watch on playback. We appreciate you guys as always.
1:00
We just asked for the like button, subscribe button helps us out a ton.
1:03
So much going on at the nation right now, so much going on
1:07
in the sports world. We'll talk on that in a little bit. We'll
1:10
show off a little bit about our MMA product. It's behind the pay well
1:14
obviously it's premium. We'll get a sneak peek on a couple of things that
1:17
we do offer. DJ Showdown, Golf, the Masters going on right now,
1:22
Hunter K today, Hunter K in the shoutdown streets Tomorrow, Hunter K.
1:26
I imagine on Sunday we'll have Showdown content. Luke Shout out Luke.
1:30
He was our sponsorship. We sponsored his stream. He does showdown. Great
1:34
job yesterday on the showdown shows a lot of people check that out. We'll
1:38
get into all that in the sac. NASCAR, MLB, NBA is so
1:42
going on a lot of time to win a lot of money, Big mar
1:45
Lee, but MMA has center stage in our eyes this weekend. Two hunderd
1:49
k up top. Someone from Shipping Nation's got to win. How you doing
1:53
today, man, I'm great. I cannot wait for this card. I
1:57
remember saying back when we were doing the two ninety nine show that I was
2:00
more excited for two ninety nine than I was three hundred. Yeah, but
2:02
I can tell now that I'm way more excited for three hundred than I was
2:07
two ninety nine. I can't wait for this one. We got two hundred
2:09
k up top. I feel pretty good about the slate. I think it's
2:12
kind of straightforward. I think I know how the field's gonna attack it.
2:15
But getting different is going to be the tricky part this week. So hopefully
2:20
you can talk me into some different spots. I am pretty chalky myself.
2:23
I have a couple spots in mind, but looking forward to breaking this card
2:27
down with you absolutely. So before we get into it, I just want
2:30
to show off quickly again. NFL is not going on. Unfortunate. Man,
2:34
if NFL is going on right now, I wouldn't know what to do
2:36
with life. I probably wouldn't even have a wife. Actually at that point.
2:39
NBA going on still today, Big Slate, Sunday, Big Slate,
2:43
We'll still have playoffs. Rio's absolutely been crushing this all this. You still
2:46
see still our ceiling rankings, correlation sheets, slate plan that Rio still does.
2:51
Showdown has been an absolute printer in the NBA street. Shout out to
2:54
Rio and a lot of people getting in there. We had another one angry,
2:58
I believe in discord. I have the logo in my mind. I
3:00
think it's like angry something six hundred bucks in showdown. Congrats to you,
3:06
PGA. So again the Showdown, we'll have projections. I'll show it off
3:09
a little bit right now before we go fight by fight projections ownership right here
3:15
again. Each round is done differently. We look at where the pin placement
3:17
is. We really dive deep into a shout out Tjen Hoop, Tambo and
3:21
the guys, and then Luke doing the show. We also have ooh,
3:24
let me go right back to it projections for it the stone. If you
3:28
haven't checked that out, we now have it for MMA, very very awesome
3:30
tools. Just a one stop shop has like color coding and MMA. It
3:35
has like the reach, takedown accuracy, what they weigh in and everything you
3:38
need to know, golf ownership tee times, everything you need to now there
3:43
the slave plan. This was today, so again updated two through four.
3:46
Hoop Scotty, I mean a Scotti what a role. Tambo gives a core
3:50
report, tier rankings right here as well. So that's just golf, NHL
3:53
STO going on, MLB, still going on, Big Boy Slay today,
3:57
NASCAR on Sunday. So much going on at Chipinnation dot com. And the
4:00
best thing for y'all, we don't change our prices even when we have all
4:04
these sports. If you want to get in, you can't find a better
4:06
deal. We have weekly twenty four bucks, no promo code, no discord,
4:11
but you get all the contents and if you haven't checked this out here,
4:14
it is a good weekly showdown. Golf, UFC three hundred, NASCAR,
4:18
MLB, NBA. I mean you get pretty much everything right there.
4:23
Monthly sixty nine dollars a month. Promo code gets you down like fifty eight
4:27
six month fifty nine dollars a month takes you to like fifty dollars a month,
4:30
and our best deal annual forty dollars a month, takes you to like
4:33
forty two bucks. All I'm gonna say, I don't like hate on other
4:38
people. People do, companies do whatever they want to do. If you
4:41
do our annual package for all the sports for the whole year, it's pretty
4:45
much the same price as what people are charging for just MMA alone and Big
4:48
Marley. I mean, MMA, you need ownership projections all that we have
4:53
that be included with all our other sports. Again, I don't like preaching
4:58
too much. I'm trying to. I don't like being a sale. I
5:00
think our product sells itself. But I want to show you a little bit
5:02
what we offer and for MMA specifically before we do go fight by fight.
5:06
It'll lead right into it. I'm not gonna open up projections because our projections
5:11
are ownership are up and ownership very important. I'm gonna leave that behind the
5:15
paywall this week. It isn't solved right now. The Stone a new edition.
5:18
Definitely check that out. Core report you guys can't see yet. Slate
5:23
Plan you'll get a fight breakdown in color coding for every fight. This is
5:27
just a little example. The first fight will get into figuredo guar brand.
5:30
You can see red means fade, yellow underweight. We color code it a
5:34
breakdown for all the fights, the DraftKings, the thing, wal pricing,
5:38
odds, inside, the distance, weight, et cetera. Marley does something
5:42
similar on his fight rankings. He's gonna have to score really fast. There
5:46
we go. You can see right here. So he lays it out one
5:49
through five his favorite fights, one being very bad. We'll get into it
5:53
so right away, you guys know Big Marley and I don't like this fight.
5:57
He ranks. He prefers the Figurato side, then the Guardbrands side,
6:00
makes it really easy. Writes up his final thoughts in this as well.
6:03
So Marley does that. I do the slate plan. We have tier rankings,
6:06
almost gonna get to the fights. Appreciate every hanging around. I got
6:10
upper tier eighty six hundred and above, mid tier right here. Lower tier
6:14
showed off the mid tier obviously, no hot take Jamal Hill alx Peira the
6:17
main fight here, a little breakdown on why we have him ranked that way.
6:21
So again, MMA included in all sports to use that promo code it's
6:26
hoop fifteen. Do you want to give us a try? Gets you fifteen
6:29
percent off the monthly, the sixth month, or the annual packages. Enough
6:33
of that, we're ready to talk some fights. Let me get out of
6:35
that. Let me go here. Mark's in here, Philly phantoms in here,
6:40
Sean be takedown gifts are in here? What is going on? Everybody?
6:46
Big Marley Slate overview. I'll let you start. I've done enough talking,
6:48
then I'll do mine a little bit, and then we'll get right in
6:50
to fight by fight. Yih. We've got three five round fights on this
6:57
card. Those are going to be the three fights that most people looking to
7:00
target. And then we got two big time favorites heavy wrestlers on this card.
7:05
So I'm excited just for the whole thing. I mean, our first
7:10
fight of the night is two previous champions, like it's the same, card
7:14
is just completely stacked. I'm so excited. I don't know if I'm gonna
7:17
go out to watch this one or if I'm just gonna buy the pay per
7:19
view and stay home. I have no idea, but I know for sure
7:21
I'm gonna watch every single fight on this card and hopefully ship two hundred k.
7:26
But yeah, I mean it's those three title fights that we really got
7:29
to think about. If you want to get different, you can start trying
7:30
to fade them, but I think they're all very important. Maybe I'm making
7:34
a rule at least two I want at least two of those three fights in
7:40
like every single lineup, I'm thinking. But we'll talk it out as we
7:43
go along. Looking forward to it, and we already showed that this first
7:46
fight is a one star. I'm changing it on this card. This would
7:50
have been a two star of my previous rankings, but I'm gonna start throwing
7:54
the one star out there just a little bit more to show my least favorite
7:58
fights to target. Previously, this would have been a two star because both
8:01
these guys could make the optimal lineup. Yeah, great breakdown there, So
8:05
I'll start right on that last point. I think everybody outside Tody Brundage,
8:09
which it's MMA, anything can happen. You can make a case for maybe
8:15
I can throw Holly Home in that boat. I just don't love the upside.
8:18
I'm assuming I'm wanting one hundred points from every single fighter on my team.
8:22
I'm expecting the optimal to be six hundred, even before Dana White announces
8:26
three hundred K bonuses. These A lot of these inside the distant props were
8:31
inflated. The ones weren't like Marina Rodriguez line. It was plus one ten
8:35
to finish. Now it's plus one hundred. Some of them are the unders
8:37
have taken steam. Like I think we need big scores. I think we
8:41
have plenty of live dogs. I expect dogs to come through. It's not
8:45
a fight or cardam in a stack by any means we've seen like Highway volt
8:48
get there in a stack. I'm not stacking this car. And I think
8:50
we have enough underdogs. You can always leave money on the table. And
8:54
yeah, I mean we have three five rounders, very unique. If you
8:56
want to get different, you know how to get different. Play less five
9:01
rounders. If you play one five round fight, They're right instantly you are
9:05
very different. And I mean what bo Nickel could easily put up one hundred
9:09
and thirty spot Yeerie wreckage fight could absolutely blow up. I mean al Jo
9:13
can wrestle, you go down Jaal turnamoay Kana with a fight. Lopez usif
9:16
like you can make a case for the three rounders finishing and putting up monster
9:22
scores where maybe in ninety four from Alex Praira isn't enough or something like that.
9:26
So yeah, my initial thoughts cut off fight like, if you play
9:30
all three of those five round fights, you better be playing a home a
9:33
brandage leaving one k something like that. Just really think about it. Ownership's
9:39
gonna go to the three five round fights minus on Yan gen Nan, and
9:43
then it's gonna go bow Nickel as the big favorite, and that's where a
9:46
lot of the chalk's gonna go. So that's a Bronx like overview. We'll
9:50
go fight by fight our man Rio's in here. Rio. I mean,
9:54
you might even have to take this laid off. We need some two hundred
9:56
k Big Marley and I real one of the favorites to shift this puppy with
10:01
how how good he's been running, So save something for the rest of us.
10:05
Exactly, beat a bump. What's going on, Matt, We appreciate
10:07
that. What a big car to be six pm Eastern bottom the top,
10:11
Big Marley. The kind of hinted her hand, tilted her hand, gave
10:18
away the hand. What's that? What's that word writing? Before that?
10:22
Hinted Hintedy hinted something like that. You guys know what I'm trying to say.
10:26
Davison Figaredo, Cody Garbrandt minus three hundred for Fig, plus two fifty
10:31
for Guarbrandt. This fight's minus one eighty to finish, plus two seven or
10:37
excuse me, minus one twenty for Fig to finish, plus four to fifty
10:41
for Cody to finish, and FIG is plus two fifteen in round one.
10:45
So this is kind of what we were talking about, Big Marley, like
10:48
we just have to fade, or how we play, how I write up
10:50
a slave plan. I know you try and make stands like I'm not playing
10:54
all twenty six fighters in twenty teams. I try to have at least four
10:58
fades, multiple underweight tay. Then the more teams you play, if you
11:01
play one fifty, you very well can play all twenty six fighters and be
11:05
just fine. But we realize most of you guys don't FIG. I just
11:09
could name off Serrouki and Jalen Turner, gay chie Bone Nickel like all of
11:13
them. I prefer then FIG. I think this fight stays on the feet,
11:18
so I think you probably need a FIG first round knockout, which is
11:20
definitely live. But if it gets to the third round, I think he's
11:24
probably drawing dead. I don't think there's wrestling upside in this matchup Garbrandt.
11:28
I don't think he has success really wrestling here either. I think it stays
11:31
on the feet. Both guys low volume, just over three significant strikes per
11:33
minute, but both dudes do have power which shows in the inside the distance
11:37
line. And I don't know. I guess I'll throw a two on this
11:41
note and then you break it down. Are you changing your thought process and
11:45
any of these fights with Dana saying three and or k bonus like, no
11:48
chin, Cody, is he still gonna try and go out and win or
11:52
is he gonna be like, all right, let's let's go forward, Like
11:54
I'm not changing my approach too much. When you're in a real fight,
11:58
you're not. You're gonna try and be defensively sounds so, I don't know.
12:01
Three hundred k is a lot of cheese, So talk about that and
12:05
break down this one. Yeah, I mean the three hundred k does make
12:07
this more interesting. I mean Figuredo just going after the three hundred k himself,
12:11
but also Cody going after it and leaving himself open for Figaredo. So
12:16
I think Figaredo makes sense as an ownership play on this card. He could
12:20
go out there and get a first round knockout and score one hundred and fifteen
12:22
points and make the optimal lineup. But if he doesn't get a first round
12:26
knockout, I just he's gonna need like three knockdowns to get there. So
12:31
that's what I don't like about it. I like everyone you named in that
12:35
upper section more than him as well, just because he's not gonna do enough
12:39
minute to minute to score well. And I have him winning a decision in
12:43
this fight. He has won three three round decisions in the UFC. One
12:52
was seventy seven points, the other was eighty one points, and then the
12:56
other was forty five points. None of those gonna cut it, I mean,
13:00
especially that forty five might as well lose a score on forty five points.
13:03
I did think he lost that fight, but none of those thing.
13:07
Danner Gwenda had that. Dannar Gwenda had that in pretty much one round.
13:11
Man. I was I was like, yes, we're breaking the slate here
13:13
with our and I was like, no, he's gassing. This is not
13:16
gonna go well. But it was looking all right at first, but I
13:20
would think for this fight my Figgy, if I was making one hundred and
13:24
fifty lineups, which I don't think I am this week, I would probably
13:28
set my maximum at Figgy's first round prop to fifteen. It's pretty solid.
13:33
It's better than I thought it was gonna be, actually plus two fifteen,
13:37
especially when you look at ownership. I'm not gonna say our ownership again too
13:41
much. I think that is a very big edge we have and that people
13:43
that pay for the MMA content it should get that. But we have fig
13:48
by far the lowest owned in that eight point seven k range and above like
13:52
by far, and I think that hold holds true. So that's why I
13:56
didn't put it as a faith personally and my third place FIGI because then chalk
14:01
your lineups if you are playing one of Jamal Hall, Alex Parro, Wen
14:07
Zay Waley Zang and Gay Chee Slash Hollyway, like, if you're playing all
14:11
three of those, yeah, maybe playing fig instead of a bow nickel and
14:16
leaving four hundreds the way to do it or something like that. So sorry
14:18
to interrupt it. Kind of just all the ownership part of it light bulb
14:24
for me, but yeah, I don't want to show Oliver. I'm not
14:26
going to be reading our ownership throughout the whole thing. But I'm sure she's
14:31
is gonna like Figgy on this card. Yeah, he's definitely your path to
14:35
a solo two hundred K. I mean, I'm not greedy, though,
14:37
I'll share with you in a couple of the listeners though if you guys want,
14:39
yeah, that's I'll be a little bit chalk here with my handbuilds.
14:45
Anyways, I won't be using Figgy in my handbuilds. I like a lot
14:48
of underdogs more than Cody two. I think if Cody somehow wins a decision
14:52
here, he can score like fifty points Grevin Jones points. Yeah, oh
14:56
yeah, yeah, that fight was horrible. So I almost feel like Cody's
15:01
KO or Bus two because we probably do need one hundred points, and I
15:05
if he's not getting the first round knockout, he's not getting one hundred points
15:07
either. So for twenty or less lineups, I'm exing both sides out of
15:13
my player pool. With one hundred and fifty, it gets more interesting.
15:16
I've built a couple of handbuilds where like I have seventy one hundred left over.
15:20
I'm like, well, Cody would fit great here, but I'm like,
15:20
I'm not gonna use them other just leave some salary on the table.
15:26
So maybe one hundred and fifty Cody would make my handbuilds. And I was
15:28
a little bit more interested in him, I would say, before the three
15:31
hundred K announcement. But the three hundred K announcement I think now makes Figgy
15:35
more interesting at low ownership compared to everyone else in that nine K range.
15:41
So with one hundred and fifty trying to ship at solo, it makes a
15:43
little bit of sense. But I think we're gonna get a Figgy win.
15:46
And he scores seventy five points. Yeah, no, we see it pretty
15:50
similar. My preferred play is Figgy for sure, though, because, like
15:56
you said, even Cody in a win, I think he needs a knockout.
15:58
I'm planning on one. I won one hundred plus for these dogs.
16:00
Yeah, like no chin, Cody, Yeah, fix power with Cody's chin.
16:06
With three hundred K on the line, Like, there's definitely passed.
16:07
I mean he's minus one twenty to finish this fight. I mean at this
16:11
ownership, I think he's a good play. I do think he's a good
16:15
play, especially the more what we have our ownership. I was a little
16:18
surprised. I think he's gonna be low owned, but we definitely have a
16:22
drastically different from the field, and it makes sense when you're surrounded by Gai
16:26
che Serukian, Wayley's like you can't click all those names, and in the
16:32
vacuum, he's definitely worse. I started, he puts up a cornhole performance.
16:36
Yeah, started my ownerships and like I was like eight hundred or not
16:40
eighty over on the six hundred, so I had to drop Figgy like seven
16:45
or something like that. So he is a lot lower, but it's just
16:48
because everybody around him. It was a lot easier to drop him than it
16:51
was everyone in that nine k range. So I do think he's just gonna
16:53
completely get squeezed. Yeah, no, I agree with you for sure.
16:56
Let's get to this next fight some and I think is gonna get He's in
17:00
the upper tier as well, Bobby Green Jim Miller. We go from two
17:03
of the lower lowest owned favorites on the slates. Minus one eighty is Bobby
17:07
Green, plus one fifty five is the legend Jim Miller. Minus one ozh
17:11
five for this fight to finish very similar inside the distance props Bobby Green plus
17:15
two forty, Jim Miller plus two sixty, and Jim Miller actually opened plus
17:19
two to fifteen to finish, which was better than Bobby Green. But it's
17:23
now gone up to plus two sixty. So people thinking Jim Miller won't get
17:27
a finish, yeah, I'll throw it two right in this one and again.
17:30
Bobby Green, similar to Figy, He's gonna be one of the lowest
17:33
owned in the upper tier if you want to make a case for him.
17:37
He has very good volume. Two plus two forty inside the distance isn't bad.
17:41
We've seen Bobby Green put up big scores. Now Jim Miller pretty low
17:45
volume, has turned into a power puncher, I guess. And Bobby Green's
17:48
been knocked out, I mean his last knockout four months ago. Pretty sketch.
17:53
Jim Miller's a lot of dogs, so I'll be playing him, and
17:56
most of my fades are dogs. So how I'm I guess brought an overview
18:00
kind of my dog pool is going to be a lot more concentrated than my
18:03
favorite pool, like mixing in Figy Mixing and Bobby Green. I'll be doing
18:07
that at very low ownership and chalk your lineups, because I'll be playing Holloway,
18:11
I'll be playing Charles Oivera, I'll be playing Wake Khan, I'll be
18:15
playing Jim Miller instead of the Holly Holmes, the Cody Garbrands, the Cody
18:22
Brundages of the world. So yeah, that's kind of my thoughts on this
18:25
one. What do you see? Yeah, I really just agree. I
18:30
think Bobby Green is similar to Figgy, but I do like him more because
18:33
he's five hundred dollars less. I also think you would have a lot easier
18:37
time scoring more than ten x in a decision win because he can put up
18:41
a lot of volume, and I would expect him to really put it on
18:45
in the third round. If Miller starts to slow down, just the longer
18:48
this goes, the more it should play into Green's favor here. But Miller's
18:52
going to be hyped up. Man. He was on UFC one hundred,
18:53
UFC two hundred, now UFC three hundred. He's gonna have the whole crowd
18:57
on his side, which is gonna hype him up even more. So I
19:00
think he's gonna go after it early. And if Miller wins, I think
19:03
he's got a decent chance at one hundred points here, and he just breaks
19:06
the slate. So I'm much more interested in Miller. But if he doesn't
19:10
finish in the first or the second round, I think Green probably starts to
19:15
take over, and maybe Green wins the second and the third, and if
19:19
he wins, a decision, I still wouldn't want a lot of Green just
19:22
because of this card. But he's live for a knockout too. I mean,
19:26
he is the better striker of the too, the higher volume striker.
19:30
He's got power. Miller's forty forty one years old, I think, so
19:33
it wouldn't shock me to see Miller get knocked out in the first round.
19:37
But yeah, man, there's just other favorites I like more. So I
19:41
won't be able to get to too much Green on this card, and then
19:45
Miller as an underdog, I'm picking to win here, and he does have
19:48
a high ceiling, so I will be overweight to Miller. He's gonna be
19:51
one of my I don't know, top three favorites on the card, maybe
19:53
three or four. Yeah, I prefer Miller too, but again I think
19:57
Miller's gonna be higher owned It's not a rare occurrence, but usually the favorites
20:02
are higher on than the dog. This will be one of the spots Bobby
20:04
Green's lower owned than Jim Miller. So yeah, I mean in the first
20:10
couple fights, these first three fights, ownership will be relatively low on them.
20:14
And it's hard to make a case when you stack up like Bobby Green
20:18
against Armin Serukian in the Range or Jayalen Turner in the Range or the Pereira
20:22
Sweet Dreams fight. It's hard to click Bobby Green over them. It's hard
20:26
to click Figgy over those names. But it's mma. There's a lot of
20:30
variants. Uncomfortable clicks win you all the cheese. So yeah, she's out
20:33
there watching him. He probably's gonna be overweight, Figgy, Bobby Green.
20:37
I'd be shocked at least one of them. I'd be shocked if he wasn't,
20:41
because yeah, when you win, how much do you win? Easier
20:42
to eat chuck around it. But my preferred play as Jim Miller in that
20:47
one again concentrated dog pool for me will be spreading out the favorites a little
20:51
more. All right, now it's time to announce a little big Marley I
20:53
wanted people to file in. I didn't even want to tweet it out on
20:56
Twitter either, because I wanted the real ones to watch the show live,
21:00
because they wanted to watch the show live. We're giving away three monthly memberships.
21:04
We're gonna do it on the show because we want people in to get
21:07
the UFC three hundred content, the showdown content, MLB NBA. We want
21:11
people to have the whole week, the whole month to enjoy this. It's
21:15
gonna Two of them are from US ship a nation, not just Big Big
21:18
Marley and titles. They don't think us from shipping nation. And one is
21:22
from b Wall shout out b Wall. So monthly access. Gee, Kifer,
21:26
I know you're already in the discord all the time, Figgy Marina and
21:30
figure the rest out. Yeah, there you go. All right, we'll
21:33
get to that fight in a second. So all you have to do say
21:37
that you're not a member, and say why you want a membership, how
21:40
you're going to use it. Big Marley will pick one, I will pick
21:42
one, and the third one is going to be I'll think I want to
21:47
do with the third one. We'll decide a little later in the show.
21:49
But if you're not a member. If you want one monthly membership, put
21:53
in chat why you and why yeah, why you want one? All right,
21:59
let's keep it going. Figy Marina, figure it out, figure the
22:03
rest out. Here we go right here. I think I think Sheets is
22:07
on Rina Rodriguez taking on Jessica and draj minus one thirty eight Androge plus one
22:12
eighteen Marina Rodriguez the rare eighty one hundred pricing plus one hundred for this fight
22:19
to finish plus two hundred Jessica and Drag plus three fifty Marina Rodriguez. I'm
22:26
gonna say, Sheets, I'm on your side, man, I'm on your
22:30
side, just watching, like when I did my tape when I broke down
22:33
the fight. I think Rodriguez is very live for a knockout. I unfortunately
22:37
think decisions more likely, which I don't think a decision in this fight will
22:41
get there from either side. So I don't love this fight. But my
22:45
preferred play is Marina Rodriguez for the same exact price, and she's the small
22:49
dog. If people play him and Drage better inside the disiness prop by a
22:53
good bit plus two hundred and plus three fifty, she's the favorite. Like
22:57
it's just hard to click Rodriguez name Overdrage. I think she wins, I
23:02
mean, and wrestle as much as she used to on the feet. It's
23:06
competitive. Rodriguez the much bigger fighter, good hands. Yeah, I mean,
23:10
tell me we're I wrong, But I'm gonna be playing Marina Rodriguez.
23:12
I'm gonna be overweights and probably underweight and Drag I'm the opposite on this one.
23:18
I think this is the time Androge does wrestle. I mean, if
23:22
you go back and you look through her last whatever eight fights, that she
23:26
hasn't been wrestling much like, it makes a lot of sense. Like you're
23:30
not gonna take Durned down because she's just too dangerous down there. You're not
23:33
gonna take Suarez down because she's better than you. She got knocked out in
23:37
the first round before that. You're not gonna take Blanchfield down because she's better.
23:41
You don't need to take Murphy down because you kicked her ass on the
23:42
feet. You got submitted in the first round by Lamos. You didn't have
23:45
any time there. You knocked out Calvio in the first rounds, you didn't
23:48
have any time there. You're not gonna take Chef chenko down because she's better
23:52
than you. Then she had two takedowns and a first round win, scored
23:55
one hundred and thirty two points against Chukegian. You don't really want to rows
24:00
down too much because she's dangerous. Weeli, I mean you go down to
24:03
Torras she had ten takedowns. Like, that's where you want to wrestle.
24:06
I would say, you want to wrestle against KK two, but she didn't
24:08
need to because she knocked her out in the first round. We're at twenty
24:11
eighteen by now. But yeah, everything you're saying is definitely true. Does
24:15
you have the cardio to do it for fifteen minutes at this point? I
24:18
would think she does. But this is the fight where it's like, I
24:22
don't know if you want to strike with Marina because she's probably a better striker
24:27
than you minutes a minute wise. Anyways, I think Andrage has more power.
24:32
She could win a fifteen minute striking match two, but I'd say she's
24:36
more likely to get a first round knockout, and she's also more likely to
24:38
put up five to ten takedowns in this fight and control ten minutes on the
24:42
ground, because that's your best game plan if you don't want to really play
24:45
with fire. You take this girl down, and it's not hard to do
24:48
that. Not only is it not hard to do that, but Marina just
24:51
doesn't show any interest in getting back to her feet either, and she'll spend
24:53
four minutes on her back doing nothing. So I like in drage quite a
24:57
bit here. I will be overweight to her, Marina less than Figgie and
25:00
Green. So she's my first X out. No, no, Cody's my
25:04
first X out on the card, and then Marina is my second. I
25:08
won't have any Marina because I love it when they have the eighty one eighty
25:11
one, and it's tough when it's like, dang, I like both of
25:14
these guys. Do I just go fifty to fifty and throw away half of
25:17
my lineups this one. I'm not gonna donate any money to the pot or
25:19
I'm gonna donate all of it. It's just gonna be androge or passed for
25:23
me. Yeah, fair enough. I'll be more on the other I think,
25:26
andraz is gonna be like three times tire owned at this point at minus
25:30
won forty plus one twenty, and I would you be shocked to see Marina
25:34
knock her out? Like if I tell you right now, let's fight stays
25:37
on the feet for fifteen minutes. I wouldn't be shocked, no, but
25:42
I mean i'd be pretty surprised. Yeah, sounds good. Plus three fifty
25:47
is not. Yeah, it's not crazy. At the end of the day,
25:49
I will say, though, I just don't love this fight much.
25:52
These first three fights on the car, I will not have too much ownership
25:56
on, like I don't I don't love this one much. I don't love
25:57
the Bobby Green Jim Miller relatively speaking of the first one. So I'm hoping
26:03
they're gonna be boring at the end of the day. Cool. See a
26:06
lot of people putting in chat why they want to be a member. We
26:08
appreciate that. Again, Marley will pick one, I will pick one.
26:11
Then we'll do some random thing to give it away. Sheets, we appreciate
26:15
those words, though, Yeah, man, right two business, Yeah you
26:21
go ahead, read that off. But I just want to give you another
26:23
shot out big Marley. He's still tracking it. You're still number one,
26:26
so shout out to you. We appreciate that. Sheets, Sean Dee go
26:30
ahead, Yeah, thank you, Sheets, Yeah, I mean Sean Vie's
26:33
right, Like Andra scores huge when she wins, Like you look through her
26:36
game log and you're like, damn, if she gets anywhere near these wins.
26:40
At eighty one hundred dollars, she's a lock for the optimal lineup.
26:42
And then we look through Marina's wins, it's like, like, good luck
26:47
making the optimal lineup. Like if you get your first round knockout, sure
26:51
then you could be on there. But anyone can do that on this card,
26:52
and I just don't think she's very likely. So eighty one hundred and
26:56
now she's like plus one twenty four. I think the line keep moving Androga's
27:02
favor so it all points to Androge. For me, she's one of my
27:04
top leverage plays maybe on the card, okay, yeah, I mean she's
27:08
in that mid tier she Yeah, we have her mid twenties ownership. Yeah,
27:14
we did for a little bit. I'll pick Marina Rodriguez. I think
27:17
it's decision though, So my favorite path is a stay away. You make
27:22
plenty of good cases for Andrage. Though maybe I'll bump up my ownership a
27:25
little bit because I would be kicking myself. I just see her put up
27:27
a one to fifty piece and Big Marley was trying to convince me for ten
27:32
minutes. So yeah, maybe I'll look into that again. Let's keep it
27:34
going. Next fight on the car bang or you know this fight's this car's
27:38
literally the nuts when Jailen Turner is the fourth fight in on the pre wins
27:42
Jalen Turner or not the moy Kano minus two thirty Turner plus one ninety five
27:48
Wakano money, moy Kano baby minus three fifty for this fight to finish jail
27:52
and Turner minus one sixty What kind of plus three ten? Big Marley.
27:57
I don't know if any of these sixty seven people watching or other people watching
28:03
on playback, No, but Big Marley's kind of famous. He was on
28:06
a stream with a lot of people. His job was to break down this
28:08
fight. Did a very good job doing it. I say, Yanni the
28:11
Greek on there, shout out Dan, So I liked the tweet when we
28:15
were going live, awesome stream. I watched your saction, Big Marley,
28:18
great job, tell other people what you see in this Genlen Turner and way
28:22
Kano flight. Yeah, I love this fight, and I was saying on
28:26
that show that I would definitely watch this fight as a headliner for any fight
28:30
night, I would be stoked for it, but we hit it as the
28:33
third fight on the card or the fourth fight on the card. But it's
28:37
also a great fight to target for DraftKings, and on almost any other card
28:41
it would be close to an all in fight for me, but on this
28:45
one it's a little bit tougher. Turner he's nasty man. He gets better
28:52
every time he's out there. He's definitely one of the best strikers and the
28:56
most dangerous strikers in the entire division. I think he's gonna have a big
28:59
striking here danger wise, and if it's a fifteen minute striking match, he
29:03
should win that as well. But he is zero to four in decisions,
29:08
and actually, if this fight does go to decision and they just push all
29:12
the finishes, Mui Kano's the minus one fifty favorite and moneyline decision only.
29:18
And I think that Moui Kano is super live to win this fight on the
29:22
ground, just like he did in his last fight against Dover, which was
29:25
really all the same worries on the feet, like just don't get knocked out
29:29
and you can win this fight. He should not want to strike with Turner
29:33
much at all. You should be looking to get ten plus minutes of control
29:34
time, if not lock up a submission along the way. So Mui Kano
29:38
is definitely an underdog. I'm looking at this week because I think he probably
29:44
does win a decision if it goes there. He's also live for a submission
29:48
in any round, But any Mui Kano wins, it's going to come through
29:52
the ground most likely, and he's gonna put up a pretty good score at
29:53
seventy three hundred dollars, so I want leveraged to Mui Kano. However,
29:59
I think the most likely outcomes Turner knocks them out in the first round.
30:03
And Turner has never scored less than one hundred and six DraftKings points, and
30:07
if he gets the first round knockout, he's gonna keep that streak going.
30:08
So I just love this fight. I'm gonna be I'm gonna have it in
30:11
like at least three fourths of my lineups, I would think, and it's
30:17
gonna be harder to get leverage on the Turner side, so I'll probably have
30:21
more Turner lineups, but more leverage on movie Kano here, just because I
30:25
think he's a little bit more live than Vegas does. Can't wait for this
30:29
fight though. This is gonna be fun for as long as it less.
30:32
Yeah, I mean just insane fight. But I will say, like Turner's
30:37
ownership, we have it. I mean, in my opinion, under owned.
30:41
And that's because you look justin Gaigie's one hundred less, people will go
30:45
gee chee Seruken's gonna eat into that Gail Turner ownership. I look at those
30:48
two very very similar. The props are very similar, et cetera. Way
30:52
Leyzag for three hundred more, she's gonna get a lot more ownership, and
30:56
then bow Nickel up there is gonna get more ownership too. I'm saying jailn
31:00
Turner's low owned, but like you like, this card is so good.
31:03
If this was a fight night card, Jail Turner could be fifty percent own
31:07
like or forty percent on maybe more realistic speaking and Waikana like twenty two.
31:12
All I'm saying is at what we have both of these guys ownership. I
31:17
want to be overweight to both guys. Now. I prefer Jalen Turner.
31:19
I think he's just too big, too strong, too fat. The dude's
31:22
just a monster. Wi Kano's been hurt. I have Turner by first round
31:26
knockout, like you said, the pass there for wa Kano very talented.
31:30
If he wins, he has all the upside in the world, and I
31:34
crossing off four dogs right away, so I have to play multiple like I'm
31:40
kind of forced to playma Icano, and he has the upside there, so
31:42
I'm a lot more Turner than he wins by first round knockout. Great fight
31:47
to target, though, I think it's gonna be under own, like this
31:49
is the fight. If you tell me what three round fight scores the most,
31:53
like this and the Charles oly Vera fight can easily outscore all those five
31:59
round fights. I know it's hard to see with bo Nickel, it's hard
32:00
to see a whale zang after what she did last time. But Sarukian and
32:05
Genal turnerrapp hundred thirty plus point upside, no doubt about it. It's enough.
32:09
That's all I got in that one, though, thirteen to talk about.
32:13
Still plenty more to go. Next one, Diego Lopez Sadik. You
32:16
said another insane fight minus one forty four. Lopez plus one twenty four is
32:22
Sadiq. This fight's minus one seventy five to finish, Lopez plus one oh
32:25
five inside the distance, Sadiq plus three forty and break it down. Yeah,
32:30
I got to speed it up. I do got my heart out today
32:34
at two eighteen. Yeah, another, I mean, great fight to watch.
32:37
I can't wait for it. Lopez Man, Lopez just looks amazing,
32:43
like he looked all right on the regional scene and he comes into the UFC
32:45
and it's like this guy might compete for a title one day. He's just
32:49
finishing well. He didn't finish Evluev because Evloev is a freak, but he
32:53
competed with Vluev and then he went out there and submitted Tucker in the first
32:57
round, knocked out Sabatini in the first round. This guy's a dangerous grappler
33:01
and he's live for submission early in the fight. He's also live for a
33:06
knockout early in the fight too. But my issue is that he's not a
33:09
good wrestler, and if Yusuf can keep this fight standing, I just think
33:15
that he's going to be the better and more dangerous striker. And I kind
33:17
of see the first round being the toughest, but I kind of see use
33:22
of hanging in there and then winning the second in the third round on the
33:24
feet, possibly even getting a TKO along the way. So this is another
33:28
one where I'm picking the underdog to win. I think it's it's basically a
33:31
pick and fight in my eyes, and that's not what Vegas is showing.
33:36
So I'm going with Usef here. However, I think that Lopez does have
33:39
the higher ceiling because if there's a first round finish in this fight, I
33:44
think it's more than likely Lopez. So I don't know, man, I
33:49
don't know what the heck I'm gonna do on DraftKings. I mean, I
33:51
like multiple underdogs. Maybe this is one where I'm picking the underdog to win,
33:55
but I have a good amount of lineups with the face it, whereas
34:00
the other ones where I'm picking underdogs to win, I probably will not have
34:05
a whole lot of the favorite. So give me USA for the upset.
34:08
But damn, I might end up with more Lopez than DraftKings in ownership if
34:15
I feel like he's another one that's under own because of the card, Like
34:17
everyone around him is just more likely to score one hundred plus points, but
34:23
he could definitely get there at eighty five hundred dollars. Maybe it's a card
34:28
where we can't even afford a bow or a welie to get on the optimal
34:32
lineup, and he makes it for that reason. So yeah, I think
34:36
it's a pretty good fight to target. But the way I see it going
34:37
down is a use of unanimous decision and he probably scores like seventy five points.
34:44
Yeah, dude, you and I it's like you, you read exactly
34:45
what I wrote my sleigh plan. I'll tour it on this fight and a
34:49
fight coming up because I'm picking the underdog. But like the first round finish,
34:53
equity's on the Lopez side and you want one hundred plus? Do you
34:57
tell me right now? The winner scores one twelve, I think it's low,
35:00
Like I bet a decent amount of money on it being Lopez, not
35:04
that Sadiq's dead forwards, but I do think Lopez more than fast start or
35:07
Sadiq wins two or three or hurts some late or something like that. And
35:12
I'm picking Sadik too. I think the lines it should be a coin flip.
35:15
I think Lopez' last two first round finishes have him a little too overvalued
35:20
on the betting line right now. Like yes, Abateen's chin is no good
35:22
I saw with emmer Sat multiple times. Yeah, I like the like I'm
35:27
on Sadek in this one too. I am torn though because of the upside
35:31
necessarily like a Sadik decision. Do you want it? I don't know.
35:37
Probably you're not hating it. You never hate a dog, but it might
35:39
not be optimal. However, again, I'm fading a lot of dogs.
35:44
I pick Sadik to win any seventy seven hundred, so I'm definitely gonna be
35:46
playing Sadiq. But yeah, I'll be playing Lopez too. And last thing
35:51
on this one I got. You can be a lot Diego Lopez lineups.
35:53
Take out Lopez, go Sadeik and leave eight hundred without a doubt on this
35:58
card. Yeah for sure. Cool, let's keep it wrong. I'm actually
36:01
gonna skip this one because I'm gonna go to this al Jamain Sterling Calvin Cater
36:07
minus one seventy two al Jo plus one forty seven Cater, We'll get back
36:10
to the holly Holm in a sec plus one fifty five for this fight to
36:14
finish. Al Jo plus two to seventy five Cater plus three eighty five.
36:17
The only reason I did that, Big Marley, because my thoughts on that
36:21
last fight are the same. For this fight, I'm picking Cater because I
36:24
think he can stuff the takedowns, keep it on the feed out point,
36:29
the jab's gonna be better, more strong, and he wins the decision.
36:32
But like, if you're telling me someone scores one hundred and ten, I
36:36
think it's Aljo because of the wrestling, the grappling, the threat with the
36:39
submission, et cetera. Cater is live for a knockout. But I'm picking
36:44
the dog and I'm definitely playing him with the price difference, But al Jo
36:49
feels like the more upside. I guess eighty four hundred. Like if who's
36:52
go If the winner of this fight outscores Perira Jamal Hill, I think it's
36:57
probably al Jo. So yeah, talk me into what you're doing in this.
37:00
Yeah, I'm on. I think both sides definitely make sense. Cater's
37:05
live to win a striking match. If he can stuff takedowns, he can
37:07
put a volume and score eighty five to ninety points and a decision win.
37:13
Maybe here he's also live for a knockout. But I just like the upside
37:19
for Sterling Moore, and I think that his wrestling and control on the ground
37:23
is good enough to win two rounds here, if not get a finish along
37:27
the way. So my preferred play is gonna be Sterling in this one,
37:30
and I do like other underdogs more to where I'm not gonna be able to
37:32
get much cater leverage, but I'm okay match in the field or so on
37:37
him. And then at the same time, I don't know that Sterling's gonna
37:40
put up one hundred plus points here, so I don't want a lot of
37:44
him either. I think he more likely scores a eighty five ninety points.
37:47
I think he's a more realistic eighty five to ninety points two in a win,
37:52
but I don't know that eighty five ninety points is gonna get there on
37:55
this card, So I just he's kind of getting squeezed out for me too.
38:00
But I do want some Sterling exposure. He's my preferred play, But
38:02
I like androge more for three hundred dollars less. What about Sterling or Lopez.
38:15
I think I'd just rather damn Sterling, I guess because I'm picking him
38:21
to win and I'm picking Lopez to lose and Lopez one hundred dollars more.
38:25
But I would say if Lopez wins and Sterling wins. You tell me we
38:30
know for sure these two are winning Lopez. I think Lopez probably out scores
38:34
them. Yeah, that's why I'm picking Lopez in that for that reason.
38:37
But that's how I love how we talked through it. We appreciate those words,
38:39
Clint, but that's the level like maybe Big Marley and I think similar,
38:44
Like you care about upside, like having the second nuts. It's great,
38:49
like you probably usually make a little money, et cetera, but it's
38:51
a huge kick in the nuts. Man. Yeah, I mean using nuts
38:54
in all these terms, but like it was just a couple of weeks ago.
38:57
I hate to bring it up for me, but one second, for
38:59
parade, it was like a seven way split for fifty five k I have
39:02
the second nuts with one another person, it would have been one hundred and
39:06
thirty seven thousand dollars. Like and said, I made three thousand, and
39:08
you don't make three thousand because you put in all this money, like you
39:12
need the stone cold nuts and MMA just like an NFL showdown. That's why
39:16
we're saying, I really just care about upside, Like if you want to
39:20
play Cody Brundage because his path is in round one. I don't think you're
39:24
the craziest person to do it because when he does win, I mean,
39:29
you have all the leverage on everybody and you don't even need the nuts to
39:32
win. So yeah, that's kind of It's a DFS again. We really
39:37
appreciate DFS is different than betting. It's different than that. We try and
39:39
focus on DFS more. That's where I have most of my action every single
39:45
week. And when you win, how I play it's how much do you
39:47
win? So yeah, back to that. And again I think you can
39:51
play a Sterling lineup, drop Sterling and go Cater in the large field stuff
39:54
too. Cater is live for knock out my opinion. What's going on?
39:59
CM? And again we're watching all these comments. Actually I'll pick one right
40:02
right now, hold on, I had it before I say the wrong name.
40:07
Right here, beatle Bump God, I always see you in here in
40:10
a lot of various sports. Not a number member. Want to join a
40:14
like minded community, play every sport you grind money on. Absolutely you get
40:19
a chance to do that. All you have to do take a picture of
40:22
your YouTube like beatle Bump right here. Email info all right, it's info
40:27
at Chippin'nation dot com and you get an all access, all sports monthly package
40:34
on shippin Nation. Congrats to you, We appreciate your support. Again,
40:37
Big Marley will pick one and we will do one more. I know you
40:40
got to run. I already got it. I'll take the one right above
40:43
yours. Go You threw in Marlee's the Goat, so that that just took
40:47
the eye. I had to take this one, so we'll take Gipper's picks.
40:51
You get a free month as well. Not a member. Just getting
40:52
into DFS more in the past few months, mainly UFC Marlee's the Goat.
40:57
Appreciate that would use the sub to do more DFS. No better place to
41:01
do more DFS than ship in Nation. I mean, we got the best
41:04
golf team by a mile. Rio's crushing it in NBA. I cannot freaking
41:07
wait for NFL to come back. Yeah, NHL, we got it all
41:12
fall. We'll be talking. We talked to the NFL in a couple of
41:15
months. A coming up. I just did two big boards the other this
41:21
week, so I'm this is too early. I got to chill out.
41:24
I'm getting excited already. Yeah, yeah, no better place to be enjoy
41:28
that free month. Yeah, I will say this time last year I had
41:30
all one hundred and fifty down. I've been. I've been a little little
41:34
busy, little lazy Cannix and match them. I have none done so far.
41:37
I'm waiting for the draft. I don't like dead teams being drafted in
41:40
April, so let's keep it all though. Talking to MMA, we're going
41:45
back to one fight. One of the biggest favorites on the car, Kela
41:46
Harrison, making her UFC debut, taking on Holly Home minus four forty Harrison
41:52
plus three forty Holly Home. His fight is coin flip plus one hundred to
41:55
finish. Actually that's not true, minus one thirties fight to go the distance
42:00
plus one hundred for this fight to finish Harrison plus one twenty Home plus eight
42:04
point fifteen. I'll contribute a month to someone else. If you want to
42:07
give one more way. You the man Sheets, You are absolutely the man
42:10
for that big Marley. We'll find two more winners. Actually that's what we
42:14
do. If you want to do it again, I'm not going to scroll
42:15
through the comments. If you're not a member, you want one, explain
42:20
why. We'll figure out two more members. To pick throughout the show That
42:23
will be below Sheets's comments. You're the man for that, Sheets. We
42:27
appreciate it, though. Good luck this weekend to yourself. Hale Harrison,
42:30
Holly Holmes, what do you do? Holly Holm? What are you doing?
42:32
Big Marley? Yea, I'm gonna go Harrison or passing this one.
42:35
I think Home's going to be the better striker, but she just has to
42:38
keep this fight on the feet. Like She's looked like a decent wrestler against
42:43
strikers, but now she's going up against a better, more dangerous, scary
42:49
ground fighter. And I think that if Harrison can get this fight to the
42:52
ground, she could dominate there, and she's active when she gets it there.
42:55
So I think the bigger question rather than like who we like in this
43:00
fight is who do we like more between Harrison and Bo Nickel in my opinion,
43:05
because that's that might be what it comes down to. And I probably
43:10
like Harrison a little bit more because she is two hundred dollars cheaper and I
43:13
think she'll be less owned, so I'm gonna have leverage on Harrison Here's and
43:19
she's another one that I had higher on ownership, and I had to keep
43:22
lower in her down. I think she's gonna have to get squeezed being right
43:25
in between Wileye and Nichol. So Harrison's my preferred play here. She is
43:30
my leverage play. And then I'm gonna fade Holly Holm and just say now
43:35
it's not the time for her for her to keep her run going against this
43:38
Harrison girl. Yeah, I mean I couldn't agree more with your cale Harrison
43:44
sentment. I here we go, Cem. You already won one. This
43:46
last one we're gonna do is random because I did say that in the beginning.
43:51
I couldn't say no that you've been saying nice things in here grinding dfs
43:54
and twenty twelve and never pay for subscription. That is absolutely I mean insane
44:00
in the best one, like good for you, like if you can navigate
44:02
dfs that long without unless you make your own projections and models and everything.
44:07
But that is absolutely awesome and saying crazy, Hey, we'll give you a
44:12
try for a month to check out what you can do with projections, tools,
44:15
a discord, a community, etc. So yeah, I mean that's
44:20
awesome, Cem. Yeah you won though. Take a picture of YouTube send
44:23
its info at ship nation dot com I am starstruck again. One numbership left,
44:29
though this next one will be somewhat random. But again you have to
44:32
type in here if you want to be nominated. I think I'm just gonna
44:36
have Marley pick a random number and assign everyone a number or something like that.
44:39
My thoughts so, Holly Holm fade everything you said about Harrison. She
44:44
has to be squeezed in between Wayley Zang and bo Nickel, lower own than
44:49
both of them. You can leave two hundred from bow Nickel. I think
44:52
you can do lineups set like zero out salary with Kayla Harrison and not have
44:58
Wayle Zang in them and feel fine because I do think leaving the hundred would
45:01
be more popular. Again, you have to think about it more, but
45:06
it's not impossible to have zero dupe lineups or yeah, no dupe, so
45:08
zero dollars remaining. You just have to think a little more about how to
45:13
do it. But yeah, Harrison wrestling upside. But I will say in
45:16
a vathuew, I don't I like Jale Turner, Serukian gae Chee's upside.
45:21
I like all the other ones. More like she really has to dominate on
45:24
the mat and get a finish in this one, and I think decision is
45:28
how I'm predicting it. Uri Prahashka Alexander Rakitch minus one ten a piece that's
45:32
a true coin flip minus the juice minus one ninety for this fight to finish.
45:38
Yeri plus one thirty five, Rackage plus two to twenty five straight pick
45:44
them, homie, who you got? This is one I'm not too interested
45:47
in because I feel like that the field is going to be more interested in
45:52
it, especially on the Jery side. We haven't seen Rackats in like two
45:57
years, and Jerry, I mean, he's really made name for himself,
46:00
so I feel like people are gonna be high on Jerry here as an underdog
46:05
who could possibly if he's not already be the favorite, he might be the
46:08
favorite by by fight time anyways, which is gonna keep raising his ownership up.
46:15
But I think for both sides, we need an early knockout or we
46:21
need like multiple takedowns in a decision when and that probably doesn't even cut it
46:27
at this point. I just like that they're in the mid range. But
46:30
my preferred play is gonna be the lower on guy, which should be Rackage.
46:34
Jerry, I think is just a little bit too defensively, irresponsible,
46:38
I guess, too wild, and I think Rackage could capitalize on that.
46:42
So I'm picking Rackage to get a knockout here, but I picked it in
46:45
like the second round is a second round knockout? Even gonna get you there,
46:49
I don't know, but he's gonna be my prices, yeah, I
46:52
mean he's gonna be my preferred play, be overweight to Rackage. And then
46:59
Jerry's ownership is tough to figure out, but I think I have him around
47:00
twenty, maybe a little bit higher than twenty, and that's just too high
47:04
in my opinion, So I'll be at least half of the field I think
47:07
on Jerry, I like other underdogs more, so give me Rackage by TKO.
47:12
I might even get a little ballsy like with ten or twenty or less
47:15
lineups, I'll probably end up just fading Jerry and going to other people in
47:20
that range more. But yeah, give me Rackage, and I hope he
47:22
is the underdog by the fight time. Yeah. I hope so too,
47:24
because I'm leaning that side. But I don't have a strong lean on this
47:28
fight. I mean, you get what I look at it. Alexander Rackett
47:31
is pretty boring a lot of his fights recently. I've been boring to YERI
47:35
that's a wild man that feels like he can't be in a boring fight.
47:37
So I'm hoping YEARI wins out in his style and he just marches forward,
47:42
runs into a big one, lands a big one. Rackage mixes in a
47:45
takedown like just we get a slot fest. I'm hoping because I like this
47:49
fight in the mid tier, Like I mean, it's tough like Lopez USA.
47:52
It's tough. When you compare this fight. I lean this Yerie Rackage
47:55
fight a little more though he compared to Marina Rodriguez and Trajan, this fight
48:00
a little more. It's all close. I'm not gonna take a crazy stance.
48:04
I don't think on this fight, but I'm gonna lean into a year
48:07
he being crazy, which makes this fight have a good potential to score and
48:12
Rackage for the same reason you said he's he at least keeps his hand up
48:15
to try and block a punch. Year he doesn't necessarily do that. So
48:17
yeah, we're gonna pick a member pretty shortly. We appreciate that takedown.
48:24
You are in the consideration for the monthly. Gonna do it random have Big
48:29
Marley pick something rat gets you up two years with the ACL injury against you
48:32
on. Hope this fight go or have this fight goes long. All plenty
48:37
of fades, but I hope it's an early finish. Next fight. Pretty
48:40
easy one for me, Bo Nickel Cody Brundage minus sixteen hundred Cody Brundage No.
48:45
Minus sixteen hundred bon Nickel, I said, pretty easy for me,
48:50
Like that's a hot take. Not sure why his fight t eavens even on
48:52
this card. Nickels sixteen hundred, Cody plus eight fifty fights minus fourteen hundred
48:59
to finish. O Nickels minus thirteen hundred inside the distance Cody Brundage thirty plus
49:04
thirteen hundred Bo Nickel by sub minus one thirty by Ko plus one thirty in
49:10
round one, where is there wrong? One problem minus twenty five Yeah,
49:16
minus two eighty five. Bow By round one put two hundred and eighty five
49:22
grand in. Take your take your one hundred grand and move on. I
49:25
don't know I got I'm not playing Cody in a million teams if I can
49:30
fit Bow. I like him, but there's also plenty of other people that
49:34
can outscore him. So yeah, no hot take here. Yeah, same,
49:37
no hot take. I mean both should go out there and dominate.
49:40
I mean, I don't think he should be the biggest favorite in UFC history.
49:45
Like they're giving him a ninety four percent chance of winning this fight,
49:50
and I mean Cody has a six percent chance of getting a DQ win basically,
49:55
and we've already seen that happen. He can get his ass kicked and
49:59
and get a ninety seven point win here, so I'm sure he's looking at
50:01
the rule book finding Louke Poles one and still find a win here. I
50:07
mean, you guys know, I'm a big Cody fan, but I think
50:08
this is the bon Nickel fight here, and he can kind of do whatever
50:10
he wants. Minus two eighty five first round. That's that's seventy five percent,
50:16
a mold, that's a right seventy four percent, damn. Like it's
50:22
hard to fade. Like the metrics are are super hard to fade, and
50:24
I think that the field's gonna flock to it. I want to as well,
50:29
But that that's what makes me like Harrison more. I think my favorite
50:30
Nickel lineup, I would still just take him out and put Harrison in.
50:35
So I'm guessing I might end up switching my ownership from the field and going
50:40
heavy on Harrison and maybe a little under on Bow. But damn, it's
50:46
hard to do when you're minus thirteen hundred inside the distance and minus two eighty
50:51
five to win in round one. It doesn't even the thing all that for
50:57
sure. But like Walley just put up on ninety one in the decision.
51:01
Yeah, and he can't do that. I don't think you can't do that.
51:04
You can't do that. Like what was I gonna say? Hayley has
51:08
to have more upside, So Wayley just has what she showed, like she
51:14
has that more upside. That's why I think she'll be higher own and she's
51:15
three hundred less. But I don't know. I feel like Bo's capped at
51:20
one thirty, which sounds insane. You tell me he gets one thirty.
51:23
You sign up for it any day of the week in jam it. But
51:25
but Harrison could still match it, Like she's the He has that style too,
51:30
he's the same thing. Yeah, and she's I mean, Cody has
51:32
more one punch power than Home, I would say, but Harrison's on better
51:37
supplements, dude, Like man, I just like Harrison a little bit more,
51:42
but the three hundred k. Originally I was thinking bo is just going
51:45
to carry Cody into the second round and test out his skills for a round
51:50
against somebody who's not on his level, and he can go out there and
51:52
showcase the striking, maybe even knock him out. But now three hundred K
51:55
for a perform she go out there and dominate this guy in the first round.
51:59
So I like them more after the three hundred k announcement than I did
52:02
before, But it's just gonna be tough, Like what do we do in
52:06
that the top three people are the best three plays on the card or three
52:10
of the five plays on the card, So I'm gonna be loading up on
52:14
all of them. But I can't have them all in the same lineup because
52:19
because I I'm fading Cody. You could if I if I was gonna use
52:22
some Cody, but everyone else is gonna have that freaking lineup too, So
52:24
I'm just gonna be underweight on BO. I think and hope that Cody can
52:30
just not be awful and get to you just hope that one eight or you
52:34
hope one O eight just not enough. Ninety five. Basically, that's very
52:38
well might not be for the for the reason, this next fight, this
52:43
guy ar Min Sarouki and Charles Olivera, they definitely could put up more than
52:46
one oh nine. I mean it was two fights to sit out with.
52:50
How good this card is Jalen Turner four fights in and Charles Olivera fourth fight
52:54
down on the main card like second card on the after the opener. I
52:58
mean, come on this, Arles oliver As that dude, this is gonna
53:00
be an insane fight. Minus two twenty five seruki and plus one ninety is
53:06
a Charles Oliverra minus two eighty five for this fight to finish Serukian plus one
53:10
to zh five inside the instance, Charles Olivera plus two hundred. I mean,
53:15
insane fight, phenomenal. I'm on the Serukian side for the for the
53:21
similar reason like Islam. It's just when he gets I think Serukian can get
53:24
taked down if he hurts Charles on the feet, whatever it may be.
53:28
If Charles ends up on his back, Serukian will I'd be fine jumping on
53:32
top, playing not on top. I think he'll do damage. I don't
53:36
think he's gonna be arm Bard for guard anything crazy. That's why I loved
53:39
Oliver against Gaechie. The biggest bet I've ever made still the date. It's
53:43
like he's not going to jump in the guard. You get time to recover.
53:46
Islam didn't give him time to recover Knast on the arm triangle. I
53:50
don't think Serukian's giving him time to recover. Is it a confident pick?
53:54
No, Charles is insane like everywhere, but that's where it's side on bond
54:00
and I love Charles. He's probably my favorite fighter out there. But Tarukin
54:04
for me, I'll just be playing a bunch of this. This fight though,
54:07
I think phenomenal both sides. Yeah, love it. It's like my
54:14
favorite or second favorite fight on the card I've just been. I don't think
54:17
I've ever picked against Charles olivera going back like fifteen years and then, like
54:23
I said, fifteen years ago, he's gonna be a future champion because he
54:27
was like twenty years old and he was nasty on the ground, and then
54:30
he showcased his striking and he was a real good striker too, and I
54:34
was like, this kid's gonna get better and better. He's gonna be a
54:36
champion. And then he kind of went through that quitter stage where I was
54:38
like, he's making me look bad, and then he finally got it done,
54:42
dude, and I was stoked. But I've been saying the same thing
54:45
about Sarukian for five plus years now. I think he's gonna be a future
54:49
champion too, So I'm just torn on this one. But I am loyal,
54:53
so I'm gonna pick du Bronx for that reason. I think du Bronx
54:58
is super dangerous. Could knock him out in the first round, submit him
55:00
in the first round. But if du Bronx wins this fight, he's gonna
55:02
be like, he's got a really good chance of being on the optimal lineup.
55:07
Insane. His scores and wins are insane. Yeah, and at seventy
55:13
five hundred, Like this is another one where you can you could put in
55:15
Armand and then take him out and leave twelve hundred on the table and try
55:17
and get a solo two hundred k that way. But yeah, I think
55:21
Armand's really live to put up one hundred and ten points here. He could
55:23
go out there and get ten takedowns in this fight. He could get a
55:28
TKO in any round. He could even submit Charles Oliver. Yeah, definitely.
55:34
So I definitely like Armand as well. And he's I mean, he's
55:38
not getting squeezed. Heill have ownership, but he's owned enough where I could
55:43
still get leverage to him while being like way over the field on Olive Era,
55:47
which is probably my plan here. So I'll load up on this fight,
55:51
but give me du Bronx to get a first round finish and then Armand
55:55
still come back and be a champion one day. But love his fight.
55:59
Cannot wait for I think it could play out many different ways. But seeing
56:02
OLIVERA at seventy five hundred dollars, it's crazy on that man. Yeah,
56:08
I mean, dude, he is. Yeah, he's my favorite in the
56:10
UFC. Like the you know when he's in the building, the eye is
56:15
that dude draws the second his face goes up there on the walkout song,
56:19
Like this fight four fights down there, it's gonna it could feel even more
56:22
intense than the main event. Like this is gonna be an absolute same fight.
56:27
I can't wait for it. Yeah, I can't argue with anything.
56:30
I just love the fight. Both sides habit on. If Charles wins,
56:34
it's really really hard not to see him on the optimal one hundred percent with
56:37
that three fights left and then yeah, we're gonna pick a winner after this
56:42
fight, three five rounders right here, BMF title on the line, justin
56:45
Gaichee trying to be the first one to defend it after the head kick went
56:50
over dust and Pourier taking on Max Holloway coming up to lightweight minus one twenty
56:54
this fight to finish, we have Gaigee plus one point thirty inside of this
57:00
and Max Holloway plus five hundred, So I think another I think Max probably
57:04
comes in higher on than Gaichee. I think it's gonna be very close,
57:07
but Max clearly clearly stands out when you're talking dogs him and Charles Olivera and
57:13
Holloway's floor is way higher money lines, better volumes, better et cetera.
57:16
So I think we're seeing Max mid forties probably now gay Chie maybe forty percent
57:22
something like that. And again I'm not even looking at our ownership right now.
57:25
Just my thoughts. I still think it's good Max Holloway chalk. I
57:30
think even if he loses, there's he's not dead for the optimal if he
57:35
loses the decision, and it's a favorite heavy card we've seen Max and Mosses
57:38
get there, so you have that outs. If he wins, it's kind
57:42
of like Charles like, it's hard to see him not being on the optimal.
57:45
If he wins, it's twenty five minutes, he average over seven significant
57:47
strikes per minute. If he does get a finish like that'd be hard not
57:52
to see him get there at plus one forty three plus one thirty on DK
57:55
like his money line odds, I think you can match. I'm gonna be
58:00
eating a lot of Max Holloway chalk, so I'll just naturally be underweight on
58:04
Gaiche. But I love Gaigee too. I'm worried about this too. Fun
58:07
the Sweet Dreams fight, we're gonna get to. I'm picking Sweet Dreams.
58:10
We'll get there and this fight my biggest concern for both and why I'm not
58:15
unloading the clip or betting both of them heavy. The light kicks talk to
58:20
me. Max has to have a plan, right, He has to all
58:23
camp check the light kick, deal with the like kick, Jamal Hill check
58:27
the light kick, deal with the light kick. If their legs toast in
58:30
the first round, it's gonna be big scores for Alex Peira and Gaichie but
58:35
can Max check him. Uh No, I doubt he checks him. I
58:37
think he's more likely attacks with punches, but he's not even knock them out
58:43
from that, So then he's screwed. Well, he maybe not screwed.
58:46
I mean, if his legs starts slowing down and he can't put up five
58:49
rounds of volume, maybe he's screwed. But I think that the five rounds
58:53
helps him out in a three round fight, I'm putting Gaechee like minus two
58:58
hundred or over two hundred, I think here, but the extra two rounds
59:01
I think should go in Holloway's favor. It's not one leg. If he's
59:07
on one leg, I'm worried. Man, I guess he would maybe get
59:09
there that long on one leg, but like, yeah, here was chopping
59:13
it and that's turned into a wrestler. Like but but you're right, like
59:16
Halloway can lose a five round decision and still make the optimal lineup. This
59:21
is my favorite fight of the three title fights. This is my closest to
59:27
all in. I probably want this in ninety percent or more of my lineups,
59:29
ninety five percent or more of my lineups even Uh but give me Gaichee
59:32
By knockout. I think those leg kicks are gonna add up, and this
59:37
one fifty five pound division is just not what Max is used to, so
59:39
I think Gaychee puts them away. I'll be overweight to Geischee, underweight to
59:43
Max. Uh. But if Max wins, like there's it's almost like one
59:46
hundred percent, He's gonna be on the optimal lineup, like he scored two
59:50
hundred and nine points in a fight before. And now these guys already have
59:54
an extra quarter million in their pockets because that three hundred k is going to
59:59
at least one of the these guys. For sure, I would pay juice
1:00:01
that this is gonna be our fight of the night, possible fight of the
1:00:05
year. I cannot wait for this one. It's gonna be a banger for
1:00:07
as long as it lasts. But yeah, give me Gaichie to be the
1:00:10
first one to finish Halloway. Yeah, no arguments here. It's definitely a
1:00:15
really good fight. I'm on the other side, but I'll be playing at
1:00:19
this point. I'll be like, all right, what's my best lineup,
1:00:21
what's my most live lineup? All Right, if it's gay Chie, let's
1:00:23
go Geechee. If it's Halloway. Let's go Holloway. The Halloway is the
1:00:28
pick for right now? What is going on camera? Bro missed you earlier.
1:00:32
Actually we're gonna go last call because I only saw two people comment below
1:00:36
sheets a thing, so it'd just be a coin flip. If you're not
1:00:38
a member and you want to try out a membership, put in the comments
1:00:42
right here. I'm gonna randomize it and we'll get someone from our man b
1:00:46
Wall given away a monthly membership all sports. I'mma this weekend PGA, this
1:00:51
weekend NASCAR, this weekend, MLB, today, NHL, I believe today,
1:00:54
NBA today, it's a lot of cheese. We got you covered at
1:00:59
ship Innation dot com. No better price in the industry at shout Out Big
1:01:02
Marley, best MMA ownership out there. I think late next Tko is definitely
1:01:07
in play, but I'm worried about the light kick, but I guess at
1:01:09
that point it probably wouldn't get late. If he's on one leg and it's
1:01:13
chopped early, he'll probably get knocked out. But I think he is in
1:01:16
play. Two fights left, Whaley zaying jan Janaun minus five to ten way
1:01:22
Lee plus eighty five is Yan. We have this fight at minus one fifty
1:01:28
to finish way Ley at minus one twenty five inside the distance Jan plus eight
1:01:32
hundred. Wayley probably the highest owned fighter on the card. I mean,
1:01:37
people that like to game log watch, we'll see one hundred ninety one DK
1:01:40
points and yeah, one hundred ninety one DK points will do the job,
1:01:45
no doubt about that same matchup. Lame Mos, good striker, susceptible to
1:01:51
takedowns, Jan joh Nam, good striker, susceptible takedowns. That's the easiest
1:01:55
path to victory. Waley expected to finish wrestling is her easiest game plan.
1:02:01
At ninety two hundred. Is the second biggest favorite on the card. Checks
1:02:06
all the boxes, Big Marley, Yeah, I don't got much. I
1:02:08
guess I'll throw it to you. Are you going to be playing any Yan
1:02:13
as leverage? And then if she wins, Yeah, she can get there
1:02:16
too. I'm not going to twenty entry and below. Probably keep her in
1:02:20
my pool if I go more teams, but I'm not I'm not even sure.
1:02:24
Yeah, yeah, I'm playing Yan probably more than the field. Actually,
1:02:29
I would think. I think she is alive to win a striking match
1:02:31
here and with five rounds to work with. I would expect her to put
1:02:36
up eighty five plus points if that happens, but she's also alive to get
1:02:39
a TKO win in this fight really in any round, but it could be
1:02:44
a first round hundred plus point slate breaker. So I will be overweight to
1:02:49
her because I think she does have a better chance than Vegas does. But
1:02:53
at the same time, with five rounds to work with, Zang is the
1:02:57
best play on the card. I mean she she just scored one hundred and
1:03:00
ninety one points with a takedown heavy game and Yan's biggest weakness is being taken
1:03:06
down and held on the ground, and I think that she has one hundred
1:03:08
and ninety point upside again, which usually we see those and when we say
1:03:12
the next fight that's not gonna happen again, but that could actually happen again
1:03:15
here against Yan in this matchup. If Zeng wants to get eighteen minutes of
1:03:21
control time and ten takedowns herein, I think she's live to do it.
1:03:24
And if she wins a decision, I mean a takedown heavy decision like her
1:03:30
ceiling is gonna be unmatched by bon Nicol and Harrison, So I do feel
1:03:35
like she's a way better play than those two, But I do e he
1:03:37
as the highest on play on the entire slate. I think Yan is somewhat
1:03:42
live in this fight. So I'm gonna be mixing all of them in.
1:03:45
It's gonna be hard to get a lot of leverage on Zang, but I'm
1:03:51
gonna have his fight in most of my lineups. I would guess I'm somewhere
1:03:53
like seventy percent Zan, twenty five percent, on twenty percent on something like
1:04:04
that. I can see that being in the ballpark of my exposure on this
1:04:08
one. Yeah, I'm gonna be targeting it at heavily, and I'd be
1:04:12
pretty surprised to see Zang win and get out scored by Bo, Nicol and
1:04:16
Harrison. So I think she's the best play if we're picking one lineup.
1:04:21
I mean, she's probably the first person most people are clicking. I think
1:04:24
it makes a let of sense. Yeah, if both Bo and her were
1:04:29
ninety two hundred, I don't know. I really don't know who it'd be
1:04:33
higher on. But because of three hundred dollars savings, I do think way
1:04:36
Lee will be the highest on there. And yeah, you talk to me
1:04:40
in a little yeah, if it's on the feet, it's competitive for sure.
1:04:44
She's been grinding. I know. Height Gotti put our discord a couple
1:04:46
of days ago watching the Imbedded and he's like, man, I know their
1:04:49
jobs that convince you that like the underdog. But he's like she looked at
1:04:54
the odds after and was shocked because yeah, yah looks ready. All right,
1:04:59
Big Marley, I need one give me one sec all right, one
1:05:10
one through five, one through five, pick a number three, my favorite
1:05:14
number three, one two. Joseph Jackson not a member, wants to ship
1:05:21
it like the big boys. Thanks for the opportunity talk to into existence and
1:05:26
manifestation. I love it. Joseph Jackson, you are the fourth member.
1:05:30
Shout out to our man b Wald, that is on. B Wald.
1:05:33
Take a picture. I know someone asked earlier. You go on to your
1:05:35
YouTube on your account, take a picture so we know it's your name,
1:05:40
your user name that we picked. We will hook you up email info at
1:05:44
chipinnation dot com. We'll get you in, get you in the discord.
1:05:47
So much going on this weekend. Very excited to have you again. Appreciate
1:05:51
you, b Wald for giving that away. May event time. Big Marley
1:05:57
again, say it a lot. Do appreciate everyone that's been hanging out with
1:06:00
us for these hour five minutes watching on playback, watching live. Good luck
1:06:03
to y'all this weekend, because Alex Perera is gonna need some luck this weekend.
1:06:09
Jamal Hill Alex Perera minus one thirty is Pereira plus one ten is Sweet
1:06:14
Dreams minus four hundred this fight to finish Pereira plus one twenty Jamal Hill plus
1:06:19
one forty. Inside the distance, check the leg kicks, check the light
1:06:24
kicks, check the leg kicks. Please please please, I mean, obviously,
1:06:28
both guys great strikers, great power, et cetera. I don't think
1:06:31
you put the house on this fight by any means, high variants, but
1:06:35
I think Jabal Hill wins at least five out it five times, at least
1:06:41
a coin flip bet worse. If anything, I give them six out of
1:06:44
ten. I get a little worried about the injury, the Achilles injury.
1:06:47
If it wasn't for that injury, though I'm playing Hill heavy, I'm definitely
1:06:51
playing Hill heavy. I did not think he should be the dog here.
1:06:54
If he can check the low kick, I think he's the better MMA mixed
1:06:58
martial artists, and I think he should o that he gets his belt back.
1:07:00
Sweet dreams, baby, what about you? Yeah, I would say
1:07:04
without the Achilles, I would favor him and maybe the six out of ten
1:07:08
times, but that does it. It's definitely a worry, especially when Prayer's
1:07:13
got some nasty kicks. I mean, watch out for lake kicks and left
1:07:15
hooks and then you're good. Uh Preyer if he gets slept by left hook
1:07:19
sure like that that just don't let the light kick man, because it could
1:07:24
be three of them. Like that's why I can't just put that much on
1:07:28
him. And Holloway. Yeah, I mean, if he's playing lake kicks
1:07:30
and someone starts slowing down here, it's gonna be Hill from the lake Kicks.
1:07:33
Get ready for live bet. I'll be doing a lot live bets.
1:07:36
Saw such a good Genemma, but I will be ready for these Holloway,
1:07:42
get you for those light kicks. But yeah, I mean, like Prayer
1:07:45
cannot keep up with the volume from Hill, he'll I mean it was against
1:07:48
text share an old guy, but he had like one hundred and thirty seven
1:07:53
draftings points. Yeah, one hundred and thirty seven In a decision like that,
1:07:58
prayer can't do that. He's gonna need like three four knockdowns and a
1:08:00
decision in order to get one hundred and thirty seven points. So I think
1:08:04
if this fight does go five rounds, which I think has a better chance
1:08:08
than Vegas does of that happening, I think Hills are most likely winner unless
1:08:12
the lake kicks are adding up. But I would think if it goes five
1:08:15
rounds, they're He's not landing as many light kicks, but both guys are
1:08:19
live for the knockout. Pereira nastiest left hook in the game, more technical
1:08:25
striker of the two, but Hill's gonna be aggressive. He's gonna want that
1:08:28
three hundred k for sure, and I think he's more durable too, just
1:08:33
as live, if not more live for a knockout here. So yeah,
1:08:36
I'm on the underdog in this one. The worry is like I feel like
1:08:40
everybody is on Hill this week, which is getting me a little bit worried
1:08:45
and making me want to up my Pereira exposure a little bit. But I
1:08:47
could see a Pereira win not making the optimal lineup where I think if Hill
1:08:53
wins, there is a good chance he's gonna score ninety ninety five plus points.
1:08:58
He and he is gonna be on the optimal lineup. So so I'm
1:09:00
taking underweight to Pereira, overweight to Hill. Yeah, let's get at Sweet
1:09:05
dreams, Sweet dreams, Baby, let's go. That'll wrap it up for
1:09:12
UFC three hundred Oh baby, what a slates two hundred k up top.
1:09:16
I don't like how they did the thirty dollars, I will admit, but
1:09:19
so many great tournaments out there for lower dollars buyings, high dollar buyans,
1:09:25
plenty of money up top, ship a nation. We have everything you need,
1:09:29
Projections, ownership already up in the solver as well. Everything will be
1:09:32
going up. I'm done. I'm just gonna put it on the site very
1:09:35
shortly after the show. MMA Fight rankings from Big Marley as well, PGA
1:09:41
Showdown one hunter k up top for today, tomorrow, the next day,
1:09:45
MLB going on today, NBA going on today, NASCAR going on Sunday,
1:09:48
NHL going on no Better time. Shipinnation dot Com weekly for twenty four dollars
1:09:55
does not include the discord. Otherwise, it's monthly, six months and annual
1:09:59
packages. Use a promo code WHO fifteen if you want fifteen percent off to
1:10:02
make it even cheaper. Great stuff is always Big Marley. We'll be back
1:10:06
next week like usual. Enjoy it, enjoy it. You have three hundred.
1:10:11
You don't see a card like this very often. Good luck everybody,
1:10:15
say safe, have a great week and for Big Marley on titled Town peace Out