Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | If Biofuel Demand Booms Who Eats The Meal

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | If Biofuel Demand Booms Who Eats The Meal · AG Bull

0:10
SPEAKER_05: Red across the screens today.
0:13
SPEAKER_05: Corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle, and hogs all in agreement to the downside could be setting up for a turnaround Wednesday.
0:22
SPEAKER_05: Tomorrow, if that's a thing.
0:24
SPEAKER_05: We'll run down a few news items and check in with the settlements and uh hope for a better day tomorrow.
0:41
SPEAKER_05: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull in the Ultimate Man Cave in Kansas City, USA, Davis Michelson.
0:49
SPEAKER_05: Ag Bull fact hammer here for you on Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
0:54
SPEAKER_05: Just you and I this afternoon.
0:56
SPEAKER_05: Well, actually, I've got Tommy Grassoffi kind of standing in the wings.
0:59
SPEAKER_05: He's pacing back and forth.
1:01
SPEAKER_05: He's kind of doing this kind of a thing.
1:03
SPEAKER_05: I think he wants my attention.
1:04
SPEAKER_05: I'm not sure.
1:05
SPEAKER_05: He may have.
1:06
SPEAKER_05: Yeah, it seems like he may have something to say.
1:09
SPEAKER_05: Let's uh let's let him sweat just a little bit before we bring him in.
1:13
SPEAKER_05: A man of few words, so we'll uh we'll make sure to make plenty of time for him, see what we can get out of Tommy today.
1:19
SPEAKER_05: But I'm glad that you are here with us.
1:21
SPEAKER_05: It is, what is it, Tuesday, October 13.
1:25
SPEAKER_05: It's hot in Kansas City, and it's this is so stupid.
1:29
SPEAKER_05: It's so stupid.
1:30
SPEAKER_05: I hate it when people say this.
1:31
SPEAKER_05: It's not the heat, it's the humidity.
1:32
SPEAKER_05: We're like 86 degrees right now, which is maybe, I don't know, seven, eight, ten degrees cooler than yesterday, but the humidity came up.
1:41
SPEAKER_05: We're supposed to get some uh banger storms that that reach in a swath all the way from North Texas up here into northeastern Missouri.
1:50
SPEAKER_05: And I'm not sure exactly the path after that, but I do know that in the KC area and in that strip from uh North Texas on up to to the northeastern Missouri, look out, everybody.
2:02
SPEAKER_05: They're talking about tornadoes, they're talking about hail, they're talking about wind, flood advisories, all sorts of stuff.
2:08
SPEAKER_05: So eyes on the skies, gang.
2:10
SPEAKER_05: If you're out there turning and burning, turn it and burn it while you can, North Missouri.
2:15
SPEAKER_05: Be safe, be safe.
2:17
SPEAKER_05: Eggbull.com is where you can check out our premium side.
2:21
SPEAKER_05: We'd be glad to have you there or call 855-737 Farm.
2:25
SPEAKER_05: We were just talking ahead of the show here.
2:27
SPEAKER_05: Brother Joe got a call yesterday from someone who watches the program and just had a couple of questions.
2:32
SPEAKER_05: Hey man, give us a call.
2:33
SPEAKER_05: Give us a call.
2:34
SPEAKER_05: And as I've said before, you know, joining our premium side is separate from signing up for a brokerage account.
2:41
SPEAKER_05: We can go that route if you want to.
2:43
SPEAKER_05: I'm not myself, but we've got some very smart people that that handle those sorts of things that are just extremely nebulous to me.
2:52
SPEAKER_05: The premium side really is is well, in fact, I got a text from Tommy Grissoffee just earlier today on the premium side that our subscribers got talking about the market's uh big move up this morning.
3:03
SPEAKER_05: Now you're saying up?
3:04
SPEAKER_05: What?
3:05
SPEAKER_05: They're they're down at the settlements.
3:07
SPEAKER_05: No, no, no.
3:07
SPEAKER_05: They didn't start down.
3:09
SPEAKER_05: It started to look like a pretty good day.
3:11
SPEAKER_05: I think that's why we're gonna have Tommy on just a little bit later to talk about the ups and the downs of today's trade.
3:18
SPEAKER_05: Anyway,$25 a month if you want to take it slow, one month at a time, totally fine.
3:23
SPEAKER_05: 250 big ones if you'd like to subscribe to our premium side for an entire year.
3:27
SPEAKER_05: We'll throw in two months for free.
3:29
SPEAKER_05: And Tommy was just showing off one of the Bluetooth speakers there.
3:32
SPEAKER_05: He's he and Gigi have them right there in the uh in the studio with him.
3:36
SPEAKER_05: Uh, we're very excited and pleased to send you just a little extra gift.
3:40
SPEAKER_05: You know, it's just a little thing, but we want you to be able to take us with you wherever you go and and your other favorite podcasts.
3:46
SPEAKER_05: Hook it to your belt, put it in your toolbox, yada yada yada, eggbull.com.
3:52
SPEAKER_05: Let's go to export inspections.
3:54
SPEAKER_05: Corn export inspections pretty good at 1.3 million metric tons down from last week, but 7.6% above year ago.
4:04
SPEAKER_05: Similar story on the soybean side, decent at just over 1 million metric tons below week ago, but above the same week last year.
4:13
SPEAKER_05: Wheat export inspections slightly higher than the previous week, but 31.9% below the same week last year.
4:21
SPEAKER_05: Now, if we can flip to the next slide here, I want to break it down by importing countries.
4:26
SPEAKER_05: Who showed up in this week's export inspections report?
4:32
SPEAKER_05: China, the largest buyer of soybeans by actually quite a ways, a good long ways, with Mexico and Egypt coming up in second and third.
4:44
SPEAKER_05: But the soybeans was the only place that China showed up.
4:48
SPEAKER_05: We talked with Mike Castle yesterday.
4:50
SPEAKER_05: It'd be great to get some business from China on the corn side here.
4:53
SPEAKER_05: Nothing doing in this week's inspections report.
4:57
SPEAKER_05: Didn't make the list of corn or wheat buyers, in fact.
4:59
SPEAKER_05: Mexico, Japan, South Korea, the top three corn buyers in the report week.
5:04
SPEAKER_05: And on wheat, it was South Korea, followed by Mexico and Sri Lanka.
5:09
SPEAKER_05: Uh, you might notice we've got Mexico second behind China on the soybean buys there.
5:14
SPEAKER_05: I think the theme from this week's export inspections report is Mexico is a pretty good customer on corn, soybeans, and wheat.
5:22
SPEAKER_05: We we appreciate them.
5:24
SPEAKER_05: Let's go to the tail of the ticker.
5:25
SPEAKER_05: Corn, soybeans, and wheat were mildly higher to start the day.
5:29
SPEAKER_05: Cattle futures were mixed mostly higher, and Lean Hogs opened the day session under pressure.
5:35
SPEAKER_05: Interestingly, the Dow was under some light pressure, but still holding above 52,000 in early trade.
5:42
SPEAKER_05: I started watching that yesterday on the pop back above 52K.
5:46
SPEAKER_05: And uh we'll we'll check in on that when we hit the settlements here.
5:49
SPEAKER_05: But rounding into the lunch hour, corn and wheat were off their early highs.
5:54
SPEAKER_05: Soybeans had dipped into negative territory to the tune of about three to five cents lower.
5:59
SPEAKER_05: Cattle futures had also fallen below unchanged as lean hogs were off session lows, but still lower on the day.
6:06
SPEAKER_05: All right, let's get to the settlements here.
6:08
SPEAKER_05: I've got December corn down just one quarter of one cent, 482 and three quarters.
6:15
SPEAKER_05: After a low of the day at 478, fought back to almost unchanged, just a quarter cent lower at 482 and three quarter.
6:24
SPEAKER_05: November soybeans down four cents today, 1283 and three-quarters.
6:29
SPEAKER_05: That comes after a high of 1297 and three-quarters.
6:33
SPEAKER_05: So a significant dip there.
6:34
SPEAKER_05: We'll talk with Tommy about that.
6:36
SPEAKER_05: Meal was lower.
6:37
SPEAKER_05: Oil was lower.
6:37
SPEAKER_05: Wow, meal was was sharply lower, moderately lower.
6:40
SPEAKER_05: I guess I'll call the soybean meal.
6:43
SPEAKER_05: Oil was lower as well.
6:44
SPEAKER_05: Over to the wheats, your December Chicago wheat, 669 and 1 quarter at settlement.
6:51
SPEAKER_05: That one's down just three pennies.
6:53
SPEAKER_05: Same deal over here, down three cents on the KC December wheat, 712 and 14 at settlement.
6:59
SPEAKER_05: Clicking on the livestock tab.
7:01
SPEAKER_05: Your uh November feeder futures, 341.02 and a half, down just seven and one half cents.
7:07
SPEAKER_05: The Jan January contract up a dime, 335.85, but that's that's the only the only go spot on the on the little stack here.
7:17
SPEAKER_05: Everybody else was lower.
7:19
SPEAKER_05: Your Fed cattle December down 22.5, 226.37 and one half lower across the board there.
7:26
SPEAKER_05: Boy, you just hop out to the feb, not so far off, down a dollar.
7:29
SPEAKER_05: The April down a dollar today as well.
7:31
SPEAKER_05: And the lean hog futures down 35 cents in the December contract, 68.02 and one half.
7:37
SPEAKER_05: Unchanged in the oct, but you know, it is October, so we'll keep an eye on the others.
7:42
SPEAKER_05: Down 70 in the feb, down 92 and a half in the April, and a dollar lower in the May lean hogs.
7:49
SPEAKER_05: Let's do look at that Dow.
7:50
SPEAKER_05: Oh, doggone it.
7:51
SPEAKER_05: I shouldn't have said anything.
7:53
SPEAKER_05: Shouldn't have said anything.
7:54
SPEAKER_05: Dipped below, dipped below 5,200.
7:56
SPEAKER_05: Not by much, but uh yeah, here we are.
7:59
SPEAKER_05: Here we are, just just below.
8:01
SPEAKER_05: I'd like to say thanks to Plus500 T4 software.
8:05
SPEAKER_05: That's what me and my crew use.
8:06
SPEAKER_05: I was just using it to quote you those settlements just now.
8:09
SPEAKER_05: Real-time quotes and a host of dandy features, futures, and options.
8:14
SPEAKER_05: An awful lot to uh to chew on with plus 500.
8:16
SPEAKER_05: Plus 500, thank you to plus 500 for programming support.
8:21
SPEAKER_05: Let me get to just a couple of a couple quick news stories and then we'll bring in the Ag Bull T-Rex himself, Tommy Grassofi.
8:27
SPEAKER_05: Let's start here.
8:28
SPEAKER_05: As National Oil Seed Processors Association members collectively invest more than$7 billion to ramp up U.S.
8:35
SPEAKER_05: oil seed processing in anticipation of more feedstock demand for making biomass-based diesel and similar fuels.
8:43
SPEAKER_05: Alternative oils from crops like canola, sunflower, and camelina are garnering more attention, according to NOPA CEO Devin Mower.
8:51
SPEAKER_05: Soybeans account for about 97% of oil seed processing presently, but other crops with higher oil content, some of which have already begun to expand, have are expected to make up an increasing amount of the crush in coming years, Mowgli says.
9:07
SPEAKER_05: Scholar, a more than a century-old agribusiness based in Omaha, Nebraska, recently opened a crush plant in Kansas that can process both soybeans and canola.
9:16
SPEAKER_05: This is interesting.
9:16
SPEAKER_05: The facility is running at capacity.
9:20
SPEAKER_05: Ed Prosser, senior vice president of the special projects over there, told AgriPulse we had about 100,000 acres of canola this year, give or take, he said.
9:31
SPEAKER_05: He added that strong RVOs have created margin for both oil seed crushers and for farmers.
9:36
SPEAKER_05: We're selling meal to the local dairies and feed yards and oil to our renewable fuel customers in California and Wyoming.
9:43
SPEAKER_05: A big, big question about all these crush plants and the potential for biofuels and what not.
9:49
SPEAKER_05: Sure, the oil's going to be in demand.
9:50
SPEAKER_05: What are we going to do with all this meal?
9:52
SPEAKER_05: It does seem like these folks over here in Kansas have found a way to uh to move that into local dairies and feed yards.
10:00
SPEAKER_05: Just one more on the biofuels, and then I'll bring Tommy in.
10:03
SPEAKER_05: A bipartisan group of 39 lawmakers urging the Trump administration to restore renewable fuel volumes lost through small refinery exemptions.
10:12
SPEAKER_05: I don't know.
10:13
SPEAKER_05: I don't know.
10:14
SPEAKER_05: I about can't take it anymore.
10:15
SPEAKER_05: With the representatives Adrian Smith of Nebraska, Nikki Badzinski of Illinois led the effort, asking the EPA and Department of Energy to propose a supplemental rule by October 15.
10:27
SPEAKER_05: The letter was signed by 23 Republicans and 16 Democrats, reflecting bipartisan support for the request.
10:32
SPEAKER_05: I about have have incurable news fatigue when it comes to ethanol and the renewable fuel standard and all of this stuff.
10:41
SPEAKER_05: There's just so much, and it seems like so little progress is being made.
10:44
SPEAKER_05: I might need to get somebody from ethanol.
10:46
SPEAKER_05: You know what?
10:47
SPEAKER_05: If you know somebody that can that can help fill me in where I'm missing it here, why I shouldn't be pessimistic every time I hear a news story that some congressperson or somebody has, oh, it's a bipartisan effort to whatever, let me know.
11:01
SPEAKER_05: Hit me down in the comments or go to agbol.com and just uh do the contact us.
11:05
SPEAKER_05: I'd like to talk to somebody about ethanol because I ask just about everybody that comes through here on the show to talk markets.
11:12
SPEAKER_05: And I'm not sure what the problem is here, but it's been ongoing, probably longer than I've been in this business.
11:18
SPEAKER_05: And I'd I'd like to see a solution, and I'm becoming very pessimistic, I'll be honest.
11:22
SPEAKER_05: And I hate to be that.
11:23
SPEAKER_05: I hate to be that way because I'm an optimistic fellow.
11:26
SPEAKER_05: Here's another optimistic fellow.
11:29
SPEAKER_05: The 17th sexiest man in all of agriculture.
11:34
SPEAKER_05: The Egg Bowl T-Rex himself, Mr.
11:36
SPEAKER_05: Tommy Grissafi.
11:37
SPEAKER_05: Tommy, I waxed pessimistic there on the biofuels, and I almost feel like maybe I shouldn't have.
11:42
SPEAKER_05: Oil demand is really good.
11:44
SPEAKER_05: They're finding stuff to do with the meal there.
11:47
SPEAKER_05: You're catching me midstream.
11:48
SPEAKER_05: You know, I'm already going, and you're just jumping in here.
11:52
SPEAKER_05: I appreciate you being here today, buddy.
11:54
SPEAKER_05: How are you doing?
11:55
SPEAKER_01: I'm doing really well, Davis.
11:56
SPEAKER_01: And it was a super exciting day.
11:58
SPEAKER_01: And I gotta give our buddy Jim Jim Wiesemeyer a shout-out.
12:04
SPEAKER_01: Oh, a shout out.
12:05
SPEAKER_01: Let me help you with that.
12:06
SPEAKER_01: But I noticed soybean oil was up this morning in canola and I trade a little canola.
12:11
SPEAKER_01: It's traded on the ice exchange, and you're gonna have Canadian dollars.
12:14
SPEAKER_01: It's a little, you know, it's a Canadian product, right?
12:17
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
12:17
SPEAKER_01: And I was like, why is soybean oil so strong?
12:19
SPEAKER_01: And he's like, Oh, they're you know, they're gonna Lee Zeldon is gonna make an announcement with the EPA.
12:26
SPEAKER_01: I'm like, we we make this announcement every six weeks.
12:31
SPEAKER_01: And right coming into it in the announcement, soybean oil and soybeans exploded.
12:36
SPEAKER_01: And and we did text clients, hey, beans are unchanged.
12:40
SPEAKER_01: As fast as I got that out, I had to text clients, hey, beans are up nine, it's harvest, corn's up five, march corn's hitting five bucks, and you know, it's harvest, right?
12:51
SPEAKER_01: You want to sell a rally or protect on a rally after that bearish USDA.
12:56
SPEAKER_01: But before we get into talking a little bit about markets, I do want to talk about because it took quite a few months to come into.
13:02
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you've ever heard the show or this guy, and some people laugh at him, but he's pretty good.
13:07
SPEAKER_01: Let me play a little something before you get a little clip.
13:12
SPEAKER_04: That sounded familiar.
13:17
SPEAKER_00: Is that weird hearing you, hearing you?
13:19
SPEAKER_04: Let's see, it's October 12th.
13:21
SPEAKER_04: All right, that's weird.
13:22
SPEAKER_04: Everybody, thanks for watching.
13:23
SPEAKER_05: That's just from yesterday.
13:24
SPEAKER_05: That's hot off the presses.
13:26
SPEAKER_05: Yeah, that is clear as a bell.
13:28
SPEAKER_05: I'm here to tell you.
13:29
SPEAKER_01: So tell people what we have here, Davis.
13:31
SPEAKER_05: Well, I was mentioning it.
13:32
SPEAKER_05: Uh, yeah, we've got the uh the Bluetooth speakers, and the whole thing is, you know, you should you should be able to access our content and take it with you wherever you may roam.
13:41
SPEAKER_05: Maybe it's just, you know, while you're out on the back porch grilling, because you know, just because it's not summertime anymore doesn't mean we can't grill up delicious steaks.
13:49
SPEAKER_05: Am I right, Tommy?
13:50
SPEAKER_05: And you know what?
13:51
SPEAKER_05: Shout out to the pork people because they need to buy a vol.
13:58
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
13:59
SPEAKER_01: Yes, this is the new Ag Bull little portable speaker.
14:02
SPEAKER_01: It's got magnets on the back.
14:04
SPEAKER_01: So if you're in your tractor or your fridge, or I even put one, I like to wake up in the morning, listen to the business shows while I'm singing in the shower, and and that that's not uh you know, it's not pretty.
14:16
SPEAKER_01: But nonetheless, these little speakers they cost$25.
14:20
SPEAKER_01: And anyone who signs up for your subscription, we're sending one with an Agble pen and a thank you letter.
14:26
SPEAKER_01: Oh, and I will say that was interesting.
14:29
SPEAKER_01: The story you talked about, Joe goes, one of our subscribers called, and I didn't realize who I was talking to.
14:34
SPEAKER_01: And so if you do, if you are part of Agble Intel, one of the things we always say is on the trading desk, we're all registered brokers, whether it be that's right, myself, Joe, Jed, Lindsay, even young Justin, uh, of course, Clayton Nesvik and Zach.
14:49
SPEAKER_01: So any one of the things Brian Leith does here, when someone starts at Nesvik, he makes them take the series three before they can even pick up the phone, so that you're actually talking to someone may not mean they have years of experience, but they're qualified to pick up the phone in place and order or whatever.
15:05
SPEAKER_01: But just people have relationships with brokers.
15:08
SPEAKER_01: Some of these brokers are my friends, some aren't my friends, but that's just how it goes, right?
15:13
SPEAKER_01: You know who you are.
15:16
SPEAKER_01: Jesus loves them all, right?
15:18
SPEAKER_01: Jesus that he does, amen.
15:20
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, hallelujah, brother.
15:22
SPEAKER_01: Do we have a hallelujah sound or which sounds?
15:25
SPEAKER_05: We're gonna work.
15:25
SPEAKER_05: Absolutely don't.
15:26
SPEAKER_05: We should have a hallelujah sound.
15:27
SPEAKER_05: Although I've only got so many buttons here.
15:29
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we need the voice from the tomb.
15:31
SPEAKER_01: I really like that story.
15:33
SPEAKER_01: But in all seriousness, folks, about markets today, when you get into the fall and you get a down 14 last night and beans to an up nine, that's a significant move.
15:43
SPEAKER_01: When you get corn from down five to up five, I know that range is tight, but after that bearish USDA report, regardless of conspiracy theories, the rallying from 470 up to about uh 488 isn't too bad.
15:58
SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you why.
15:59
SPEAKER_01: A few 10 days ago I was traveling, and D's corn had traded down to 495, 494 and a half, was a little scary, went back up to that 510 level.
16:09
SPEAKER_01: Before the report, we were trading close to 515, and then we took the elevator all the way down to 470.
16:14
SPEAKER_01: So we've gotten back over half that move.
16:17
SPEAKER_01: And with that action today in soybean, soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal, soybean meal being extremely firm with crushing capacity and harvest delays.
16:28
SPEAKER_01: And did you see the if I saw our very own weatherman, Craig Solberg, and I know sometimes these weather models get distorted, they're talking about eight to ten inches of rain in Oklahoma.
16:38
SPEAKER_01: They don't get but 15, 17 inches a year.
16:41
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
16:42
SPEAKER_01: So we're talking about major, major moisture in a part of the country that doesn't normally see it.
16:48
SPEAKER_01: And this weather story continues to uh play on.
16:51
SPEAKER_01: And as far as markets, you know, to get them jacked up again, we're gonna need a weather story in South America, Davis, and we'll be keeping an eye on that.
16:58
SPEAKER_05: We also need a demand story out of China on the corn side.
17:01
SPEAKER_05: I hear more and more about that.
17:03
SPEAKER_05: Uh Mike Castle mentioned it yesterday.
17:05
SPEAKER_05: How bad do uh do Chinese and other Asian buyers need corn right now?
17:11
SPEAKER_05: Any idea?
17:12
SPEAKER_01: I'm not an expert on their crop or anything else.
17:14
SPEAKER_01: I'd have to relook.
17:15
SPEAKER_01: That's a great question.
17:16
SPEAKER_01: I'd have to relook at the USDA balance sheet.
17:18
SPEAKER_01: And who who the heck knows if China, you know, like they're gonna tell us the truth, they're short on grain, right?
17:24
SPEAKER_01: Kind of reminds me of the story we're talking about at the office today, the great grain robbery in 1972 when Russia was having a massive drought.
17:33
SPEAKER_01: Someone in our office, Mr.
17:35
SPEAKER_01: Richard Crow, was actually part or witnessed that deal, right?
17:40
SPEAKER_01: And this is before satellites and everything else.
17:43
SPEAKER_01: Russia had one of the worst droughts ever in history, and they didn't like publish it on X.
17:49
SPEAKER_01: Hey, we're burning up over here, right?
17:51
SPEAKER_01: There was no iPhone to take a picture.
17:53
SPEAKER_01: And then Russia came over here and bought all of our grain.
17:56
SPEAKER_01: So I imagine if China needed corn or if they do a deal with America where they don't just buy soybeans, they buy corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton, maybe some meat products, that would be nice.
18:08
SPEAKER_01: And as you know, in the Trump administration, there's really great stuff that's going to happen in three months.
18:14
SPEAKER_01: And it's always in three months, three months, three months, but we're kind of running out of three-month time slots because we have midterms here in the next 30 days.
18:22
SPEAKER_01: And if I was a foreign country, I would just wait to see what happens with midterms because this administration may not have as much uh bargaining power or or uh threatening power as they've had in the past.
18:37
SPEAKER_01: And I really have a feeling with where oil is today, where inflation is today and everything else.
18:42
SPEAKER_01: I feel like all the countries are just buying it as they need it.
18:45
SPEAKER_01: And but we're gonna see demand from Europe.
18:47
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna see uh the European countries taking grain, we're gonna see countries that don't normally take grain take it.
18:54
SPEAKER_01: And some of that's based on price, some of that's based on need.
18:57
SPEAKER_01: To have a great market, though, to your point, we need it's okay if we have a little too much supply, if the demand's there.
19:04
SPEAKER_01: USDA finds a couple hundred million extra bushels, not the end of the world if someone buys it.
19:09
SPEAKER_01: But if someone doesn't buy it and we have those extra bushels, that's where corn could go back down to 450, 440, 430.
19:18
SPEAKER_01: And then that would bring in more demand and we can come out of it.
19:21
SPEAKER_01: But for the short term, rallies are meant to be sold or protected.
19:25
SPEAKER_01: Uh, you need to get your cash, interest rates have gone up, and that's what we're doing.
19:29
SPEAKER_01: We're doing that buy-sell uh you know, farmers are calling should I store my beans or my my corn?
19:35
SPEAKER_01: And we're talking basis, bins, spreads, and everything else, and trying to get folks cash flow.
19:40
SPEAKER_01: On a positive note, though, we did that premium last week with Paul Nefer, and that those payments are starting to hit farmers' checking accounts.
19:47
SPEAKER_01: And so if you're getting your payments on the program with the uh$13.1,$13.2 billion, that's going to help farmers have a little bit of staying power here for the next few months.
19:58
SPEAKER_01: So I do feel on all the rallies we had, we'll call it the war rally in March, uh, the little spring rally, and then this late fall rally.
20:07
SPEAKER_01: I think the old crop moved well, the new crop is more forward-sold than normal.
20:12
SPEAKER_01: And I actually think farmers have more staying power than you may think here for the next few months, right?
20:19
SPEAKER_01: Once the snowflakes start to fly and it gets cold and it's harder to start that truck.
20:24
SPEAKER_01: That's when you see that really big improved cash market.
20:27
SPEAKER_01: But folks, listen up.
20:29
SPEAKER_01: Over the next few weeks, we're gonna have the oh, my TV went and you went to disco lighting.
20:33
SPEAKER_00: My my my TV went to disco lighting.
20:36
SPEAKER_00: Let's do a little disco.
20:37
SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
20:38
SPEAKER_00: My uh my my TV uh went on mute.
20:41
SPEAKER_00: I'll work on mute anyway.
20:43
SPEAKER_00: Yes, what happened?
20:45
SPEAKER_00: Um, I don't know.
20:47
SPEAKER_00: It got super freaky there for a second.
20:49
SPEAKER_00: Go full screen on Davis.
20:51
SPEAKER_00: Keep talking.
20:51
SPEAKER_00: Go full screen on Davis, Joe.
20:54
SPEAKER_05: A little Tommy disco for you.
20:56
SPEAKER_05: It's a disco break at the moment.
21:01
SPEAKER_05: I put my hands up like this, and I'm really inspired.
21:04
SPEAKER_05: This is me doing the disco.
21:08
SPEAKER_05: All right, that's quite quite enough of that.
21:10
SPEAKER_05: Yeah, Tommy's uh fixing his his screen there.
21:13
SPEAKER_05: He's got the remote going and everything.
21:14
SPEAKER_05: No, he's shaking his head.
21:15
SPEAKER_05: He says he said no.
21:17
SPEAKER_05: I wanted to ask him one more question, just a easy one.
21:19
SPEAKER_01: I'm here, but my screen, my laptop's doing an update right while we're recording.
21:26
SPEAKER_01: But now you can see the studio.
21:28
SPEAKER_01: So we have let's just give people a little tour of Agble Podcast here in Nashville.
21:32
SPEAKER_05: Uh we got of Agbol.
21:35
SPEAKER_01: We yes, sir.
21:36
SPEAKER_01: We got our key light, our fill light.
21:38
SPEAKER_01: There's lights above us, and there's some lights around us, and then we have a laptop that has our backgrounds.
21:44
SPEAKER_01: And when I want to switch my backdrop from We Smire to Ag Squawk, I hit this button and I see the supercomputer powering up.
21:53
SPEAKER_01: But uh, I was wondering like, how did my screens go blue?
21:56
SPEAKER_01: It looked cool there for a second.
21:58
SPEAKER_00: I thought you were doing a thing.
22:00
SPEAKER_01: No, that was not planned.
22:01
SPEAKER_01: But uh planned.
22:02
SPEAKER_01: Well, let me ask you.
22:03
SPEAKER_01: Speaking of not planned, I want to tell you something.
22:05
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
22:06
SPEAKER_01: A week or two ago, we had like a production.
22:09
SPEAKER_01: Problem, right?
22:09
SPEAKER_01: And you were frustrated.
22:11
SPEAKER_01: Yesterday I was on RFB TV and they're like, You're going to be on with Luke Lloyd.
22:16
SPEAKER_01: And then all of a sudden I see Tony St.
22:17
SPEAKER_01: James on there trying to read monologues and everything else.
22:20
SPEAKER_01: I guess Luke Lloyd was broadcasting on live national TV and his power flickered and he would go on.
22:26
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
22:26
SPEAKER_01: And they're like, I mean, they're live on national TV, so we have it easy here.
22:30
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
22:31
SPEAKER_01: A little wardrobe malfunction like this isn't the end of the world.
22:34
SPEAKER_01: But uh remember, you're like, we need to do better than this.
22:37
SPEAKER_01: I'm like, well, I gotta tell, I gotta tell you something.
22:40
SPEAKER_05: You make me sound like I'm freaking out.
22:42
SPEAKER_01: Well, I guess maybe I was a little upset at the time.
22:45
SPEAKER_01: You hit that you should be because you had a really important guest, and you're like, What's going on here?
22:50
SPEAKER_01: You're playing sounds, you're not playing, but I I think people should appreciate what you're talking about.
22:55
SPEAKER_00: And then I called you afterwards, I'm like, what are we doing?
22:58
SPEAKER_00: Woke me up from my nap.
22:59
SPEAKER_00: But sorry about that.
23:00
SPEAKER_05: You said you weren't sleeping though.
23:02
SPEAKER_00: You I wasn't felt bad about that.
23:04
SPEAKER_05: I didn't mean to.
23:04
SPEAKER_05: If I'd have known that you were trying to get to sleep, I'd I would have just left it alone.
23:08
SPEAKER_00: A lot of a lot of old people take naps at three o'clock in the afternoon.
23:10
SPEAKER_01: But I want people to understand that how hard you prepare for this show, that it's not only you behind the screen, Joe is behind the screen with cameras and mixers and sounds.
23:20
SPEAKER_01: Jed's actually here.
23:22
SPEAKER_01: Jed, if you're out there, if you want to pop on for a second, I can get my we could do a little impromptu uh oh, come on, Jed.
23:30
SPEAKER_01: Jed's there.
23:32
SPEAKER_05: I don't know.
23:32
SPEAKER_00: He's there.
23:33
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
23:33
SPEAKER_05: Well, I work so hard some days.
23:35
SPEAKER_00: Get me out of here.
23:36
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna turn my screen back on.
23:38
SPEAKER_00: Yeah?
23:38
SPEAKER_00: No?
23:38
SPEAKER_00: There we go.
23:39
SPEAKER_00: Hi, Jed.
23:39
SPEAKER_00: Jed.
23:41
SPEAKER_00: How you doing?
23:41
SPEAKER_05: It's it's a Tuesday show here.
23:46
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
23:47
SPEAKER_05: You're a little quiet.
23:48
SPEAKER_05: Crank up your volume just a little bit.
23:49
SPEAKER_05: Tommy was just talking about that.
23:51
SPEAKER_05: Not about you, but yeah.
23:54
SPEAKER_05: Yeah.
23:56
SPEAKER_05: Hey, how'd you like the cattle market action today?
23:58
SPEAKER_05: Looked like we were going to be mixed for a little bit, at least mixed, and then I mean, we got a dime in the jan feeders.
24:04
SPEAKER_05: It just doesn't do it for me.
24:06
SPEAKER_05: It's not sexy enough.
24:07
SPEAKER_05: Jed Sidwell, your thoughts.
24:09
SPEAKER_03: I just got done with our Fat Tuesday show with Mike Sands, and we talked about it at length.
24:14
SPEAKER_03: And right now, we're sitting in a weird spot historically from an export and import perspective.
24:20
SPEAKER_03: We export more cattle or less cattle than we have ever, and we import less cattle.
24:27
SPEAKER_03: And because of that, we're we're kind of sitting on this weird little piece of untried territory.
24:35
SPEAKER_03: Right now, we have an interesting thing where the futures are lower or higher than cash, live cattle futures.
24:45
SPEAKER_03: And that provides some pretty decent opportunities to get in and get hedged, but at the same time, it's an interesting market to try and navigate because we can't just say, well, cash did this, so the market's going to do this, like we've been doing for a while.
25:01
SPEAKER_03: Cash has been hold, you know, holding fairly steady.
25:04
SPEAKER_03: It isn't just in the tank, but we do need to see a bounce in it.
25:07
SPEAKER_03: Luckily, the Fed kill has been better here recently.
25:10
SPEAKER_03: That wasn't great for a while, and we had those kind of problems coming out of southwest Kansas, you know, maybe a manhunt going on there for a little while that impacted our cattle killing situation.
25:21
SPEAKER_03: The Fed kill is up.
25:23
SPEAKER_03: We have a lot of sales going on right now.
25:25
SPEAKER_03: Mike and I talked about bread heifer prices, those are seeming fairly decent right now.
25:31
SPEAKER_03: And that all kind of has to do with heifer retention rates and cow kill.
25:35
SPEAKER_03: I encourage you all, if you are subscribers listening to this, to go watch that.
25:38
SPEAKER_03: That'd be the Fat Tuesday show.
25:40
SPEAKER_03: We put it up every single week.
25:42
SPEAKER_01: So Jetsters, bring that mic a little closer to your beautiful face.
25:46
SPEAKER_01: There we go.
25:47
SPEAKER_05: A little closer.
25:48
SPEAKER_05: Tommy's having trouble with video.
25:50
SPEAKER_05: Jed is a little quiet on his audio.
25:52
SPEAKER_05: It's uh it's a mixed bag today, everybody.
25:54
SPEAKER_05: We're real people.
25:55
SPEAKER_01: This is why we can't have nice things.
25:57
SPEAKER_01: I I tell you, I gotta tell you something, Davis.
26:00
SPEAKER_01: When you and I went long on Friday and really gave up, here's why you should leave here positive.
26:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I didn't think many people would watch the show just because it was long and they were bummed out.
26:12
SPEAKER_01: That that was our most viewed axquawk ever.
26:14
SPEAKER_01: So if you're out there, folks, and you you know this show it's typically 40-50 minutes.
26:20
SPEAKER_01: And when we introduced Axquawk, I thought we were gonna do like a 30-minute show, 20-minute show.
26:26
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and then your first show went 40 some minutes and 50, and you've had a couple hour ones.
26:32
SPEAKER_01: And yeah, I think people like content because I could see how long they listen to it.
26:36
SPEAKER_01: And the only thing I ask is that you click the buttons, whether you listen on Apple, Spotify, wherever you're catching old Ag Squawk, can you do us a favor and hit subscribe?
26:46
SPEAKER_01: It's free to subscribe to Ag Squawk AM and Ag Squawk in the afternoons, but it really helps if you hit subscribe and hit notifications.
26:53
SPEAKER_01: And I can see as more people subscribe, but super pleasantly surprised with people listening.
26:59
SPEAKER_01: I also had several people write into the website and say, I understand Weismeyer's go unpaid, no problem.
27:05
SPEAKER_01: Jim decided what he it's gonna be for all Weismeyer's content, that's all the articles he puts out all day.
27:11
SPEAKER_01: It's gonna be$199 a year for all people who join.
27:15
SPEAKER_01: And we're gonna send out a coupon.
27:17
SPEAKER_01: There's gonna be it's not a lot of drama.
27:19
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna say, you know, Jim's went paid for, but Jim used to get paid by someone else to write all this content.
27:26
SPEAKER_01: And then that's not how the industry works anymore.
27:29
SPEAKER_01: So if you want really high quality, in-depth Washington DC analyst, someone who has boots on the ground in 50 years, if you go to a great university, you're gonna have to pay for a great professor.
27:43
SPEAKER_01: And when Deputy Secretary Steve Baden literally in a tweet said, I did an interview with the Dean of Agriculture, that says a lot about Jim and our team and how prepared we are.
27:53
SPEAKER_01: Of all the people who come on these shows, I can promise you I come on the least prepared.
27:57
SPEAKER_01: I may have the best gift to gab and make shit up, but uh you do your homework, Jed does his homework.
28:02
SPEAKER_01: Jed's in his office by six o'clock every morning.
28:05
SPEAKER_01: Oh, he's crushing it early.
28:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
28:07
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'm usually still in bed.
28:08
SPEAKER_01: I say, Jed, I'll do today.
28:09
SPEAKER_01: And then I'm like, Jed, I'm not even I'm not even going yet.
28:13
SPEAKER_01: And but a lot of effort goes into collecting data and information, and we got some really cool things going on.
28:20
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I've learned a lot from Mike Sands on cattle.
28:23
SPEAKER_01: Cattle is by far my weakness.
28:24
SPEAKER_01: I have zero hog accounts, I don't even keep hogs on my quote board, and I love bacon, but everyone gets to be good at something, and Jed definitely understands cattle because it's cattle in it.
28:36
SPEAKER_01: And uh and Mike Sands, MBS Research, really understands you know what's going on.
28:43
SPEAKER_01: I have some exciting news for you all.
28:45
SPEAKER_01: I haven't told you a lot of it.
28:46
SPEAKER_05: Before you do, before you do, let's not make Jed sit in front of the camera for this whole thing.
28:50
SPEAKER_05: Jed Sidwell, everybody.
28:51
SPEAKER_05: Jed Sidwell.
28:52
SPEAKER_05: Thanks for being here, Jed.
28:54
SPEAKER_05: Love you, brother.
28:55
SPEAKER_05: Peace out.
28:56
SPEAKER_05: Okay.
28:57
SPEAKER_05: Now back to me and Tommy Grassofi.
29:00
SPEAKER_05: Thanks for being here, everybody.
29:02
SPEAKER_05: We're just this is what we love to do, actually.
29:04
SPEAKER_05: You're you're seeing you're seeing what would be going on anyway if there were cameras or not.
29:09
SPEAKER_05: So this is a sausage is made, isn't it?
29:11
SPEAKER_05: This is it right here.
29:12
SPEAKER_05: This is it.
29:12
SPEAKER_05: And we we love to bring great guests.
29:15
SPEAKER_05: I'm gonna plug the guests for the rest of the week.
29:17
SPEAKER_05: I've got two more coming up this week that I know of, and uh, we'll talk about them in just a minute.
29:22
SPEAKER_05: But but really just sitting down and uh speaking amongst friends is is part of the part of the thing here, Tommy.
29:30
SPEAKER_05: Absolutely, absolutely.
29:33
SPEAKER_05: Talk to me about tomorrow.
29:34
SPEAKER_05: I know turnaround Tuesday is a thing.
29:36
SPEAKER_05: What about turnaround Wednesday?
29:38
SPEAKER_05: We're red across the board today, brother.
29:42
SPEAKER_01: A little red, a little red, and way off where we were last night.
29:46
SPEAKER_01: When I went to bed last night, I was a little nervous because the stock market, the one of the stock markets in Asia, the Korean stock market, the Cospi, was starting to hit limit down.
29:56
SPEAKER_01: Now we've digested a lot of that negative news.
29:59
SPEAKER_01: We're seeing incredible resilience in our stock market.
30:02
SPEAKER_01: We're seeing interest rates stabilize.
30:04
SPEAKER_01: The bond market was up today, which means interest rates are calming down.
30:09
SPEAKER_01: Super excited.
30:09
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna go on a little learning opportunity.
30:11
SPEAKER_01: You know that young man you interviewed, Jared Dillion from the Dirt Nap?
30:16
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he was cool.
30:17
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, cool dude.
30:18
SPEAKER_01: Came out with his new book.
30:19
SPEAKER_01: They're having Dirt Fest here in Nashville.
30:22
SPEAKER_01: So I'm going to go to that fine Italian bistro you may know of, Villa Castriati here.
30:29
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
30:29
SPEAKER_01: There's gonna be a bunch of people who are extremely smart.
30:31
SPEAKER_01: Jared is really well respected in the industry.
30:34
SPEAKER_01: So, regardless of how the markets go tomorrow, I know there's gonna be a good learning opportunity, the network, and a lot of people are traveling in from all over the country, even a few from other countries come in for the daily dirt nap conference here in Nashville tomorrow.
30:47
SPEAKER_01: And if you're not on Jared's and Jared's subscription, he charges a pretty penny, but he he does a he's really helps people navigate these markets when if he thinks something's he tells you what he's doing and he trades his own money and other people's money.
31:03
SPEAKER_01: And he's very transparent.
31:05
SPEAKER_01: And I like there's one thing I like about a lot of things I like about him.
31:09
SPEAKER_01: When he's wrong, he admits it.
31:11
SPEAKER_01: So that's a real problem, whether it's farming or trading or USDA reports.
31:16
SPEAKER_01: People are like, it's not my fault.
31:18
SPEAKER_01: And when I look at traders and brokers and farmers, I hear the most blame put on President Trump, then Secretary Ag Rollins, and then Mother Nature.
31:27
SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean, folks, you got to control the controllables.
31:30
SPEAKER_01: And we get to vote for a president every four years.
31:33
SPEAKER_01: Rollins is doing the best she can.
31:34
SPEAKER_01: And Mother Nature, she gets angry.
31:37
SPEAKER_01: I mean, she goes from no rain for two months to raining too much at harvest.
31:41
SPEAKER_01: You just got to plow through it.
31:43
SPEAKER_01: And that's why you use things, especially crop insurance.
31:46
SPEAKER_01: We don't even sell it.
31:47
SPEAKER_01: Speaking of a show you did with someone last week, good show on all the different tools you could use on crop insurance.
31:52
SPEAKER_01: That that was a good one.
31:53
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Katie V.
31:54
SPEAKER_05: Katie V, she was good.
31:56
SPEAKER_05: Voin Voynorovich.
31:58
SPEAKER_05: Yeah, that's Katie Voynorovich.
32:01
SPEAKER_05: No, no, sir.
32:02
SPEAKER_05: I can't even say, you know, it's funny.
32:04
SPEAKER_05: When I had uh when I had Jared Dillion on, and this is gosh, it could be months ago.
32:09
SPEAKER_05: Two months ago now.
32:10
SPEAKER_05: Yeah, it could be.
32:11
SPEAKER_05: It was it was a treat to talk to him, and you know, my approach to you talk about show prep, my approach to that was to just read up a bunch of his stuff and pull questions out of there and ask him questions about the stuff that he writes every single day.
32:26
SPEAKER_05: My parents watched it, and my mom called me and said, I ordered his book.
32:32
SPEAKER_05: You could pre-order it then.
32:33
SPEAKER_05: It's out now, the awesome portfolio.
32:36
SPEAKER_05: Just a little free plug for uh for Mr.
32:38
SPEAKER_05: Dillion's book there, but the awesome portfolio.
32:41
SPEAKER_05: And my my folks were like, This guy's really switched on.
32:43
SPEAKER_05: I I gotta read his book.
32:45
SPEAKER_05: So, you know, I don't know if that's an endorsement or not, but I'm I'm calling it an endorsement.
32:49
SPEAKER_05: The awesome portfolio, Jared Dillion.
32:51
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and they have a lot of copies down here.
32:53
SPEAKER_01: There was a young man who came to our office the other day, and he just graduated Butler University, and he's really into finance.
33:00
SPEAKER_01: Matter of fact, he's gonna come on the show.
33:02
SPEAKER_01: He's a young man working in the financial industry that designed an app to help youngsters between the age of 13 and 18 understand financial markets.
33:13
SPEAKER_01: And he developed a free app to try to bring financial literacy to youngsters.
33:18
SPEAKER_01: They are all into this sports gambling, everything else.
33:21
SPEAKER_01: Hey, pick a stock, pick an investment.
33:23
SPEAKER_01: And he made a free app.
33:24
SPEAKER_01: And I think you'll really enjoy it.
33:26
SPEAKER_01: Is it gonna be on this show?
33:27
SPEAKER_01: When is that?
33:28
SPEAKER_01: Uh, whenever you want.
33:29
SPEAKER_01: You you are the host of AgSquawk.
33:30
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
33:31
SPEAKER_05: What's his name?
33:31
SPEAKER_05: Do you remember?
33:31
SPEAKER_05: Do you recall?
33:32
SPEAKER_05: I'll put it in my notes right now.
33:33
SPEAKER_01: Oh, I I I have it, but I gotta tell you something really crazy.
33:37
SPEAKER_01: This young man got a hold of me a week ago, and then another young man got a hold of me two days later, who is at the Kelly Business School that developed an app to keep track of your books and tickets and everything else.
33:52
SPEAKER_05: Yeah, this guy I reached out to.
33:53
SPEAKER_05: I haven't heard back yet, but I reached out to it.
33:55
SPEAKER_05: Was it Eli, I think was his name.
33:57
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
33:57
SPEAKER_01: Eli, did he get a hold of you?
33:59
SPEAKER_01: Not yet.
33:59
SPEAKER_01: Not yet.
33:59
SPEAKER_01: He's probably busy.
34:00
SPEAKER_01: He's probably cool and stuff.
34:01
SPEAKER_01: So what I find interesting, Davis, and this is very important, folks.
34:05
SPEAKER_01: One thing I know tomorrow, our very own Zachary Davis is going to teach the Ag Squat crew.
34:11
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna have Claude 101 in-house just for us for Tommy, Davis, Joe, Jed, we call it like the old guy crew plus one youngster, Jed.
34:21
SPEAKER_01: And Zachary's gonna come on my computer here in this office and he's gonna pull up a brand new Claude account that's never done anything, and he's going to talk to us like we're a bunch of third graders, which as far as when it comes to using this stuff, we are right.
34:35
SPEAKER_01: And whether you're 56, 55, 45, or Jedsters barely can buy a drink like 22, 23 over there legally, right?
34:44
SPEAKER_01: And he, I just had my first legal drink.
34:47
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, okay, son.
34:49
SPEAKER_01: But we're taking time to learn this, and to the fact that two college students use Claude, built their own website, and they want to show us, that means people like us got to step up our game.
35:01
SPEAKER_01: And folks in the back may not see it, it may be for show prep.
35:05
SPEAKER_01: And the reason people are still watching shows like this and not other shows is because we're we're real people, right?
35:13
SPEAKER_01: You and I had a long conversation when you first started coming to Nashville, and we decided that your number one asset is you, like a real guy who somehow magically has a different guitar behind him for every day of the week.
35:26
SPEAKER_01: I don't know what's going on this week.
35:27
SPEAKER_01: I don't know where they come from.
35:28
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
35:29
SPEAKER_01: And they just guitar heaven.
35:32
SPEAKER_01: But people still like talking and listening to real people.
35:36
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
35:37
SPEAKER_01: What AI does is it instead of going out and saying, I want to build some fancy website, it's$20,000.
35:44
SPEAKER_01: It these kids say they could do it in three to four hours.
35:47
SPEAKER_01: They're like, Oh, you need a website?
35:48
SPEAKER_01: I could do it three to four hours.
35:50
SPEAKER_01: I don't know how, I don't know why, but I've seen them.
35:52
SPEAKER_01: But I will say one thing though.
35:54
SPEAKER_01: You're getting us off track because you've said one thing like four times now.
35:57
SPEAKER_01: I know, but I'm excited to be on the real life show with real people.
36:01
SPEAKER_01: And we had a wardrobe malfunction and everything.
36:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
36:04
SPEAKER_01: You can always tell when someone used Claude to build a website because they all kind of have the same look.
36:11
SPEAKER_01: Well, for now, I mean, how long is it going to be before we can't tell anymore?
36:15
SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
36:15
SPEAKER_01: I can just tell when someone sends me a website, I'm like, oh yeah, you made that on Claude.
36:19
SPEAKER_01: So they kind of look like a Marriott hotel on any side of the road.
36:22
SPEAKER_05: Or like if I was AI, my hat would be on straight.
36:25
SPEAKER_05: You know what I mean?
36:26
SPEAKER_05: But if you ever see a video of me with a cap on and it's on straight, it's not me.
36:30
SPEAKER_01: Maybe you tell it your gangster AI and you go crooked hat, right?
36:33
SPEAKER_01: That's what I'm about.
36:34
SPEAKER_01: That's what I'm about.
36:35
SPEAKER_01: I'm from the streets.
36:36
SPEAKER_01: Back to the show.
36:39
SPEAKER_05: Turn around Wednesday.
36:41
SPEAKER_05: Turn around Wednesday.
36:42
SPEAKER_05: Give me some good news.
36:44
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna educate ourselves as a group.
36:46
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna educate ourselves on AI.
36:48
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna meet with Jared Dillion's group, and we're gonna deal with whatever these markets throw at us.
36:52
SPEAKER_01: No one's happy with that USDA report, unless you were like the most if you were short and hedged and permabarear, sure.
36:59
SPEAKER_01: You know who's happy with that USDA report?
37:02
SPEAKER_01: The end users.
37:03
SPEAKER_01: The end users are gobbling up the there were people who are gonna lose their jobs if corn would have rallied to$575,$6.
37:11
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
37:11
SPEAKER_01: There are people who get to celebrate Christmas with their families and have gifts because risk managers and end users were out of position and they're now back in positions.
37:21
SPEAKER_01: $475 is the fair price for corn right now, or$480, and that's what we're gonna trade for a little bit until something takes us another direction.
37:28
SPEAKER_01: So hopefully the bushels are a little bit bigger, right?
37:31
SPEAKER_01: Maybe that's what the USDA is saying.
37:33
SPEAKER_01: And if the bushels are bigger, not for everyone, but for some people, also we're gonna keep an eye on crop insurance levels because it's the month of October, and it'd be nice to keep seeing soybeans go up and corn to go up to get a nice healthy crop insurance.
37:46
SPEAKER_01: But whatever they throw at us tomorrow, whether it's crude oil going higher or problems in the world, we're gonna deal with the controllables tomorrow here at Egg Bull Trading.
37:54
SPEAKER_01: And then we'll do egg squawk in the afternoon.
37:57
SPEAKER_05: That's what we'll do.
37:58
SPEAKER_05: That's what we'll do.
37:58
SPEAKER_05: Tommy Grassoffi.
38:00
SPEAKER_05: The 17th sexiest man in all of agriculture.
38:05
SPEAKER_05: Thanks, Tommy.
38:06
SPEAKER_05: I'm gonna kick you out of here now because I got to wrap up the show.
38:09
SPEAKER_05: I gotta, I gotta be done here now.
38:10
SPEAKER_05: Tommy Grasafi, everyone.
38:12
SPEAKER_05: Boop camera edit.
38:13
SPEAKER_05: Here we go.
38:14
SPEAKER_05: Yes, thanks, Tommy.
38:15
SPEAKER_05: We will be back tomorrow.
38:17
SPEAKER_05: And you know, we'll have all the all the details, the ups, the downs.
38:20
SPEAKER_05: We'll laugh, we'll cry, whatever it takes.
38:22
SPEAKER_05: We'll uh we'll have it all here for you.
38:25
SPEAKER_05: I want to go to this.
38:27
SPEAKER_05: Thank you, both Jed and Tommy, for for some perspective on the markets today.
38:31
SPEAKER_05: Ag lending, agricultural lending at U.S.
38:34
SPEAKER_05: commercial banks continued to grow during the second quarter of 2026 while farm loan performance remained relatively stable.
38:42
SPEAKER_05: The FDIC shows total outstanding ag loans reached$206.27 billion, up 2.1% from the first quarter, and 3.8% up from a year earlier.
38:53
SPEAKER_05: Farm real estate loans totaled$122.26 billion.
38:57
SPEAKER_05: That's up 4.5% on the year.
39:00
SPEAKER_05: Non-real estate farm loans, those help finance production, equipment, livestock, that was at$84 billion, up 2.8% from a year ago.
39:09
SPEAKER_05: At banks specializing in ag lending, delinquency rates declined from the first quarter, but remained close to year earlier levels.
39:18
SPEAKER_05: I bring this up to say we'll be talking ag banking tomorrow with Brian Gilbert from South Dakota on the program, and I'm really looking forward to it.
39:27
SPEAKER_05: I want to know about the general health of ag bankers.
39:33
SPEAKER_05: Mr.
39:33
SPEAKER_05: Gilbert should be able to talk to us with authority about at least in his experience, how the farmer is dealing with all of this, what are credit conditions?
39:43
SPEAKER_05: Are we seeing panic selling on land?
39:45
SPEAKER_05: Are we seeing, you know, what are we seeing out there on the fiduciaries?
39:51
SPEAKER_05: And I'll look forward to that.
39:53
SPEAKER_05: Let's go to the to the weather real quick here, and then uh then I'll cut you loose.
39:58
SPEAKER_05: The National Weather Service is calling for heavy rain and widely scattered severe storms, capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado expected over portions of the central and southern plains into the lower Missouri Valley.
40:10
SPEAKER_05: Joe, I don't think I got the weather slides in today.
40:12
SPEAKER_05: Don't worry about it, buddy.
40:14
SPEAKER_05: Yeah.
40:15
SPEAKER_05: Unseasonable warmth will continue for a few more days across the Midwest and Southeast, where several daily record highs could fall.
40:21
SPEAKER_05: Now, remember, I was talking about my local weather stations had highlighted an area from North Texas all the way up to northeastern Missouri.
40:31
SPEAKER_05: I'll say it one more time.
40:32
SPEAKER_05: Severe weather possible, beginning here in KC uh right around dinner time, I suppose, which makes sense because I gotta go be somewhere tonight about that time.
40:42
SPEAKER_05: So why wouldn't it rain and thunder and do all that sort of stuff?
40:46
SPEAKER_05: Eyes on the skies, everybody, through through that slot of Central North America.
40:53
SPEAKER_05: Let's go to some items of mild interest and then we'll get out of here.
40:56
SPEAKER_05: At 1909, one of my very favorite piano players, Art Tatum.
41:02
SPEAKER_05: You probably haven't heard of him.
41:03
SPEAKER_05: I hope you have.
41:31
SPEAKER_05: Excuse me.
41:32
SPEAKER_05: 1792, the old farmer's almanac, first published and edited by Robert Thomas.
41:39
SPEAKER_05: That's a different Rob Thomas than uh than you may have heard on the radio.
41:43
SPEAKER_05: 1963, the term Beatlemania, first used after the Beatles appeared at the London Palladium, and in 1966, the Jimi Hendrix Experience Trio debuted with American guitarist Jimi Hendrix and bassist Noel Redding, drummer Mitch Mitchell, both of those dudes from Britain.
42:02
SPEAKER_05: They have their first gig in Everrow, Normandy, France on this day in 1966.
42:08
SPEAKER_05: Thanks so much for being here, everybody.
42:11
SPEAKER_05: Let me talk about trade the news before we go.
42:13
SPEAKER_05: Trade the news is what we use for usable news.
42:16
SPEAKER_05: Trade the news.
42:17
SPEAKER_05: It's news you can use.
42:18
SPEAKER_05: Use trade the news for usable news.
42:21
SPEAKER_05: Trade the news.
42:23
SPEAKER_05: And of course, I'd love to direct you back to Agbol.com.
42:26
SPEAKER_05: Dig deeper with Agbol Intel.
42:28
SPEAKER_05: Take your marketing by the hoes with Ag Bull.
42:31
SPEAKER_05: Visit Agbol.com or call 855-737 Farm for the details.
42:36
SPEAKER_05: Jedstedwell, back with the morning calls bright and early, and I'll talk to Brian Gilbert, president of Ag Banking at First National Bank in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
42:45
SPEAKER_05: Y'all come back tomorrow for more than a lot of people.