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Markets, Big Oil, Intel, and Jeep · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Every business day, we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,
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  Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: podcast Economists, I mean, I don't know. We're told we
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: have to talk to them, so we So we've frightened
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: this guy, Stewart paula in there. He's a new guy.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: I didn't hire him, but he's at Bloomberg Economics. He's
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: an economist here and we love talking to him. He's
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: not a new new guy.
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  Speaker 3: He has a lot of experience on the street.
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  Speaker 1: Oh he's been around forever.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, he's a research fellow at the fd I S.
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  Speaker 1: But who gets a PhD in economics? I mean, talk
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: about it?
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  Speaker 3: Work for teal?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I know that's pretty cool. Hey, Stuart, you're in our studio, man,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: you get like a double star on a Friday in studio.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: That is, he's always an effort man. You guys, have
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  Speaker 1: you and your team have a great story out or
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: no doubt consumers lived beyond their means through third quarter.
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  Speaker 1: And then that's Matt Miller, I mean, as he's looking
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  Speaker 1: at his Dodge Challenger parked in the garage and coveting
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  Speaker 1: that what are the numbers behind that are just have
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  Speaker 1: we exhausted all our savings and that we're just kind
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  Speaker 1: of borrowing And that's how the big spending number comes
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  Speaker 1: out today.
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  Speaker 4: Well, so the savings picture is a little bit complicated,
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  Speaker 4: but the headline numbers make it pretty clear that consumers
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  Speaker 4: were living beyond their means and it was mostly due
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  Speaker 4: to discretionary services spending in the third quarter and that
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  Speaker 4: continued through September. And so when we're looking really in
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: real space, which is what matters most, we see real
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  Speaker 4: disposable income declining for four straight months and gangbusters spending
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  Speaker 4: throughout the quarter, including on discretionary items. So the real
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: question ends up being what's the FED going to do next? Fortunately,
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  Speaker 4: within the report, there's one little bit of a silver
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  Speaker 4: lining on the inflation side, and it's that in flight
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  Speaker 4: there was actually deflation for some of the most important
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  Speaker 4: durable goods, some of the things that are going to
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  Speaker 4: be most front of mind for those of us who
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  Speaker 4: lived through June of twenty one, for example, and we're
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: really focused on auto prices. Autoprice is declining in the
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  Speaker 4: PCE report, furniture price is declining. The catch all other
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  Speaker 4: durables prices declining. And so we see monetary policy getting
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  Speaker 4: some traction and they're just going to need to continue
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  Speaker 4: leaning against the consumers who have been spending down that
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  Speaker 4: saving spot pile.
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  Speaker 2: Now can they continue leaning against consumers? Can Can monetary
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  Speaker 2: policy get more aggressive even without them doing anything. That's
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  Speaker 2: kind of the narrative that the Fed has been giving us, right,
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  Speaker 2: this passive tightening thing that Bostik talks about.
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  Speaker 4: Right, So the passive tightening would be that you see
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  Speaker 4: economic activities slowing in the background while nominal policy rates
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  Speaker 4: stay steady, all while the FED is continuing to soak
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  Speaker 4: up liquidity by running down its balance sheet.
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  Speaker 5: That is possible.
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  Speaker 3: I suppose it's not. It's not doing nothing if they
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  Speaker 3: continue QT essentially.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they still call QT passive. It really
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  Speaker 4: depends on how much there is an active sales to
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  Speaker 4: max out. There apps of ninety five billion dollars a month,
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  Speaker 4: but they consider it to be one of the more
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  Speaker 4: passive elements. Of their monetary policy, and as they continue
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  Speaker 4: to soak up liquidity, as banks continue to see the
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  Speaker 4: effects of higher rates resulting in deposits leaving and the
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: cost of credit becoming higher for consumers, it is the
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  Speaker 4: sort of thing that ends up resulting in slow and
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  Speaker 4: spending going forward.
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  Speaker 1: Now, consumers living beyond their means? Isn't that what Americans
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  Speaker 1: do in general? What's exactly?
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  Speaker 2: I mean?
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  Speaker 3: Have we just gotten back to normal?
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  Speaker 2: Because when I put you know, Torsten Slocks list of
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  Speaker 2: worries up to any of the bulls and I say,
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  Speaker 2: you know, savings have been completely drawn down. Everything's going
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  Speaker 2: on a credit card these days. Delinquencies are picking up. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: the bulls always say, so what, That's how it was
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  Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen.
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  Speaker 3: This is how we do well.
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  Speaker 4: So here's what's not the same as in twenty nineteen.
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  Speaker 4: Savings rates are extraordinarily low, and we've been with the
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: higher interest rates. Yeah wow, yeah, three point four percent
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  Speaker 4: in September. Three point four percent savings as a percentage
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  Speaker 4: of disposable.
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  Speaker 1: Person of your daughter, Paul, I am too every time.
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  Speaker 4: And that's while disposable personal income growth is negative, right,
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  Speaker 4: So think about what that means in saving space. I
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  Speaker 4: know that people like to, especially the bulls, like to
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  Speaker 4: look at this idea of cumulative excess savings, but that
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  Speaker 4: as a source of additional spending power going forward. But
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  Speaker 4: that is not dry powder that's sitting in banks. That
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  Speaker 4: cumulative access savings, as it's calculated, is really just foregone
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  Speaker 4: spending in previous months, and that money could have been
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  Speaker 4: put into bitcoin or into whatever at sixty thousand dollars
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  Speaker 4: and it's gone, right, And we know that it's gone
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  Speaker 4: if we look at bank balances for the average person
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  Speaker 4: in the bottom fifty percent of the income distribution and
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  Speaker 4: adjusted for inflation, there is no excess cash balances for
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  Speaker 4: those folks.
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  Speaker 2: I got to ask about first about you Mish one
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  Speaker 2: year out their survey just coming across the ticker, participants
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  Speaker 2: expecting inflation of four point two percent. It's more than
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  Speaker 2: we thought they were going to say, and more than
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  Speaker 2: double what the Fed wants it to be.
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  Speaker 3: Is that a concern?
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  Speaker 4: So year ahead inflation expectations don't matter as much as
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  Speaker 4: longer term inflation expectation.
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  Speaker 2: So we should be looking at the five year or
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  Speaker 2: what so we should be looking at five year It
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  Speaker 2: seems like I don't even what can do tomorrow much
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  Speaker 2: less a year much less five.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, because because year ahead is so responsive to gasoline prices.
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  Speaker 3: That's really why.
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  Speaker 4: It's like a pretty simple correlation.
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  Speaker 1: So it makes sense.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, that tracts, so we do.
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  Speaker 4: We do want to look at the five.
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  Speaker 3: Year, five to ten year. We're looking at three percent
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  Speaker 3: on the survey.
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  Speaker 4: It just crossed, that's right, So that's for the median.
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  Speaker 4: The thing that most people are going to overlook that
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  Speaker 4: I don't want you guys to overlook, is that the
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  Speaker 4: average inflation expectations five year out jumped pretty dramatically up
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  Speaker 4: to four point seven percent from I think three point
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  Speaker 4: two percent the prior month. Yep, right, So like that
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  Speaker 4: is something notable that the FED is going to keep
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  Speaker 4: an eye on. We still think that the FED is
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  Speaker 4: going to remain on pause through the October thirty one
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  Speaker 4: November one meeting.
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  Speaker 5: There is still.
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  Speaker 4: Another opportunity to hike at the end of the year.
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  Speaker 4: But when you see durable's prices coming off as we
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  Speaker 4: did in the most recent report, we see consumer sentiment
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  Speaker 4: moderating a little bit month over month, and we see
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  Speaker 4: real disposable income declining for four straight months, and households
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  Speaker 4: clearly getting a little bit stretched than the FED can
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  Speaker 4: be a bit patient.
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  Speaker 2: I just got one last question for an economist, which
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  Speaker 2: you are, and you have experience working with government economists
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  Speaker 2: as well. Comments are always on the one hand, on
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  Speaker 2: the other hand, right, and when you look at the
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  Speaker 2: surge in yields that we've seen in these markets, on
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  Speaker 2: the one hand, you could say, well, that's because of
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  Speaker 2: strong growth in.
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  Speaker 3: The US economy.
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  Speaker 2: On the other hand, you could say it's because of
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  Speaker 2: massive deficits that we have. Janet Yellen yesterday said the
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  Speaker 2: surge in longer term bond yields in recent months is
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  Speaker 2: a reflection of strong growth in the US economy, not
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  Speaker 2: the jump in government borrowing driven by a widening fiscal deficit.
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  Speaker 1: She would say that right talking her book.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, is she just talking the book her book?
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  Speaker 5: Totally? Yeah, totally.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, any economists would acknowledge it. Because if we
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  Speaker 4: take it back to econ one oh one, we're thinking
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  Speaker 4: about incentives and constraints. Right, what's the Treasury Secretary's incentive here?
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  Speaker 4: It's to downplay the effect of running deficits that are
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  Speaker 4: pretty massive and being on a unsustainable fiscal trajectory for
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  Speaker 4: the next thirty years at least right over the entire
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  Speaker 4: forecast window. You look at what the Fed thinks that
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  Speaker 4: it is going to be more so a matter of
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  Speaker 4: unsustainable fiscal fiscal policy.
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  Speaker 3: That's what is good.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's good. You can get a time, dude, Stuart
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Paul used US economists before Bloomberg Economics kind of breaking
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: it down for us.
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  Speaker 6: Here you're listening to the teenth Ken's Live program Bloomberg
• 7:38
  Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
• 7:41
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• 7:44
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• 7:48
  Speaker 3: Take a look at Xon Mobile.
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  Speaker 7: The stock is down about one two point two percent
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  Speaker 7: on earnings now at miss earning estments in the third
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  Speaker 7: quarter did boost its dividend and a huge, huge increase
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  Speaker 7: in cash flow. We want to get more details here
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  Speaker 7: with Darren Woods, exce On Mobile chairman and CEO. Darren,
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  Speaker 7: we really appreciate you joining us on this very busy
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  Speaker 7: earnings day. I just want to start a little nerdy
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  Speaker 7: and that's what the chemical side of the business, that's
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  Speaker 7: really what led to some of the weakness and earnings.
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  Speaker 7: Chemicals is a really wonderful indicator as to the global economy.
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  Speaker 7: What should be our takeaway from that weakness for you guys.
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  Speaker 8: Well, I think there's two things to look at our
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  Speaker 8: chemical business. One obviously is demand and the link to GDP,
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  Speaker 8: but the other is the supply. And we typically see
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  Speaker 8: that commodity cycles in chemical are driven by generally growing demand,
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  Speaker 8: but then peaks of supply coming on, and that's certainly
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  Speaker 8: been the case that post a pandemic, a lot of
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  Speaker 8: supplies come on. We haven't seen excessive growth in GDP,
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  Speaker 8: and so you're seeing that pressure manifest itself in very
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  Speaker 8: low margins, But that's a supply issue. Demand hasn't been
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  Speaker 8: as strong as in the past, but we're still continuing
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  Speaker 8: to see rising demand, just at a much lower rate
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  Speaker 8: than historical. My expectation as gb begins to pick up
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  Speaker 8: and China continues to kind of come out of its
• 9:02
  Speaker 8: post lockdown issues, that we'll see growth and chemicals pick up,
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  Speaker 8: but we're still going to have to work through the
• 9:09
  Speaker 8: supply overhang.
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  Speaker 7: Okay, So that's more of a supply issue than a
• 9:13
  Speaker 7: demand issue.
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  Speaker 9: That's good to know.
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  Speaker 7: To that point, if we just go to the broader
• 9:17
  Speaker 7: oil story because in some ways, let's get through earnings,
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  Speaker 7: but really the story for you guys is the Pioneer
• 9:22
  Speaker 7: deal and the takeover there. And some of the numbers
• 9:25
  Speaker 7: that you guys were tossing out here are huge, like
• 9:28
  Speaker 7: increasing approvable reserve to one billion in the Permian. Some
• 9:33
  Speaker 7: analysts are worried that you can't get that far. What
• 9:35
  Speaker 7: are you guys going to do that gets you there?
• 9:38
  Speaker 8: We're going to do is what we're already demonstrated we're
• 9:41
  Speaker 8: capable of doing. So if you go back in time, Alex,
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  Speaker 8: you know, we set out a strategy to make sure
• 9:46
  Speaker 8: that we're applying the full weight and force and capabilities
• 9:49
  Speaker 8: of our company into the unconventional space, and that's been
• 9:53
  Speaker 8: a concerted effort to develop technologies to improve recovery. We've
• 9:57
  Speaker 8: been implementing that in the acreage that we've got to
• 10:00
  Speaker 8: day and both the Delaware and the Midland we're seeing
• 10:02
  Speaker 8: very good results. We've demonstrated the ability of those technologies,
• 10:05
  Speaker 8: the techniques and the development processes that we have in place,
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  Speaker 8: and what we're doing now is taking that proven capability
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  Speaker 8: and applying it to the best acreage in the Midland.
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  Speaker 8: And so Pioneer is basically in the fair way of
• 10:18
  Speaker 8: acreage in the Midland, and so we've got this very
• 10:22
  Speaker 8: good acregs that we're now going to apply these the
• 10:24
  Speaker 8: capabilities that we have in Xon. So that's the combination.
• 10:27
  Speaker 8: They are demonstrated capabilities that we have built into those
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  Speaker 8: synergy numbers. It doesn't comprehend the additional technology that we're
• 10:36
  Speaker 8: working on today that's in the pipeline that frankly we
• 10:38
  Speaker 8: think has promised. So our view is, while the numbers
• 10:41
  Speaker 8: are big and it reflects the capabilities that we bring
• 10:45
  Speaker 8: from Exonomobile and Merry up with the acreage and the
• 10:49
  Speaker 8: capabilities that the Pioneer has, we've got additional upside coming
• 10:52
  Speaker 8: down the pipe.
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  Speaker 5: Wow, Darren, good morning. It's guy.
• 10:57
  Speaker 10: To your points and you're just talking about what's happening here,
• 11:00
  Speaker 10: but I think it goes and speaks to beyond that
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  Speaker 10: and what else you're doing. You are proving to be
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  Speaker 10: very good at execution projects execution, You're demonstrating that you've
• 11:09
  Speaker 10: got a new refinery coming on.
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  Speaker 5: You are proving to be very good at that.
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  Speaker 10: Others in the energy space are not, particularly within the
• 11:17
  Speaker 10: renewable space, where it is proving to be very.
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: Difficult to execute well.
• 11:21
  Speaker 10: Right now, can you just talk to me about how
• 11:24
  Speaker 10: big an advantage that execution story is and how you
• 11:28
  Speaker 10: can leverage it, leverage that to do more.
• 11:31
  Speaker 8: No, I think you've hit on a really important point, guy,
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  Speaker 8: and you're absolutely right. It is critical, particularly in a
• 11:36
  Speaker 8: capital intensive industry like ours, to be very good at
• 11:40
  Speaker 8: executing large, complicated projects. In twenty nineteen, we consolidated all
• 11:44
  Speaker 8: of our resources on projects into one global organization. That
• 11:48
  Speaker 8: organization has the sole focus of making sure that we
• 11:51
  Speaker 8: are developing world class, industry leading projects and then executing
• 11:56
  Speaker 8: them ahead of schedule and ahead of budget. And we're
• 11:59
  Speaker 8: demonstrating that that applies itself to our low carbon solutions
• 12:02
  Speaker 8: business today. And so if you look at the challenges
• 12:04
  Speaker 8: of going from carbon capture or biofuels at scale or
• 12:08
  Speaker 8: hydrogen at scale, marrying that with requirements of storing and
• 12:12
  Speaker 8: sequestering CO two, we are in the sweet spot of
• 12:16
  Speaker 8: pulling all those things together and doing it at scale,
• 12:18
  Speaker 8: which is going to be required to address the challenges
• 12:21
  Speaker 8: out there with respect to the size of the emissions
• 12:23
  Speaker 8: that we have to reduce. There aren't any other players
• 12:26
  Speaker 8: out there that have that same capability.
• 12:29
  Speaker 10: And that gives you a huge advantage. Now you're just
• 12:30
  Speaker 10: one the pioneer deal Alex was talking about that does
• 12:33
  Speaker 10: that execution ability though, now give you the opportunity to
• 12:36
  Speaker 10: look at what's happening in the renewables space where there
• 12:39
  Speaker 10: is a tough time emerging and start to cherry pick
• 12:43
  Speaker 10: assets there as well, and use your ability to execute
• 12:46
  Speaker 10: to turn those assets around.
• 12:49
  Speaker 8: I would tell you we're going to leverage not just
• 12:50
  Speaker 8: our project capability, but our technology capability. And the way
• 12:54
  Speaker 8: I've characterized it, we're a molecule company, not an electron company,
• 12:57
  Speaker 8: and so we bring more value in the space required
• 13:00
  Speaker 8: to manage and transform molecules hydrogen and carbon molecules that
• 13:05
  Speaker 8: applies to CO two, and so what we're going to
• 13:08
  Speaker 8: apply our capabilities too is the molecule side of the equation,
• 13:11
  Speaker 8: which is carbon capturing, storage, hydrogen biofils, capturing the emissions
• 13:16
  Speaker 8: associated with existing harder to carbonized industries that don't have
• 13:21
  Speaker 8: any real practical alternatives, and applying that So we see
• 13:24
  Speaker 8: huge opportunities there. In fact, our low carbon solutions businesses
• 13:28
  Speaker 8: is turning those opportunities into high return projects today.
• 13:32
  Speaker 7: But I know and I know that Dan Emin has
• 13:33
  Speaker 7: talked about the fact that he won't do it unless
• 13:35
  Speaker 7: he gets those high returns up for low carbon solutions. Darren,
• 13:38
  Speaker 7: would that include buying a refiner, buying more refinering asset
• 13:42
  Speaker 7: or refining assets, Like if you've got to move the stuff,
• 13:44
  Speaker 7: if you've got to move the molecules and make different
• 13:45
  Speaker 7: things out of it, you need different refining capacity.
• 13:49
  Speaker 8: So you know, when we look at our refining circuit,
• 13:51
  Speaker 8: we're looking for but I'd say is a diversified set
• 13:55
  Speaker 8: of capabilities and advantages. So if you look at what
• 13:58
  Speaker 8: we've been doing and refine, we've been concentrated dating our
• 14:00
  Speaker 8: refinery footprint and focusing on the strategic refineries that are
• 14:04
  Speaker 8: producing high value products in the lubricant space, the chemical space,
• 14:08
  Speaker 8: the fuel space, the traditional fuel space, but also the
• 14:11
  Speaker 8: opportunity to use our technology to then bring in biofuels
• 14:14
  Speaker 8: in biofeeds to make lower emissions fuels. So we feel
• 14:18
  Speaker 8: really good about the front print we have today. You
• 14:20
  Speaker 8: can't just go out and buy that from a refinery.
• 14:22
  Speaker 8: It really comes from years of integrated approach to investing
• 14:26
  Speaker 8: in making sure you've got a refinery that is producing
• 14:29
  Speaker 8: a portfolio products that meets society needs, Darren.
• 14:33
  Speaker 10: None of this happens at a vacuum. You must be
• 14:35
  Speaker 10: watching very carefully what is happening in the Middle East.
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: I assume you are.
• 14:39
  Speaker 10: Is there to what extent do you think there is
• 14:41
  Speaker 10: the possibility of a repeat of the nineteen seventies another
• 14:43
  Speaker 10: oil shotcoming or do you think the supply base is
• 14:46
  Speaker 10: now diversified enough to avoid that? And I'm also hearing
• 14:49
  Speaker 10: conversations regarding the possibility of a supercycle re emerging. Do
• 14:54
  Speaker 10: you see any eventuality that could lead to that at
• 14:57
  Speaker 10: this point? How would you address these two issues?
• 15:00
  Speaker 8: Well, I would start with the ladder And again, the
• 15:04
  Speaker 8: industry is still recovering from the impact of the pandemic,
• 15:07
  Speaker 8: and the lower levels of capital have been going in
• 15:10
  Speaker 8: across the industry to offset the depletion that's been happening,
• 15:14
  Speaker 8: and so supplies a fairly tight. So the big issue is,
• 15:17
  Speaker 8: you know where's demand at. If you see real growth
• 15:21
  Speaker 8: and growth in demand, then that's going to challenge the
• 15:24
  Speaker 8: supply base that we have, which will put more pressure
• 15:26
  Speaker 8: on prices and margins. So I think it's really a
• 15:28
  Speaker 8: function of where does the global economies go in the
• 15:30
  Speaker 8: years ahead, because for the next couple of years. It's
• 15:33
  Speaker 8: going to it's going to take time to get additional
• 15:35
  Speaker 8: capacity coming on.
• 15:37
  Speaker 11: With respect to.
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: The Middle East, yeah, no, go ahead. Finished.
• 15:40
  Speaker 8: With respect to the Middle East, what I'd say it
• 15:43
  Speaker 8: is still an important region in the world. And while
• 15:46
  Speaker 8: to date the tragic events are not manifesting themselves in
• 15:51
  Speaker 8: an impact, you know, that's something we're keeping a very
• 15:53
  Speaker 8: close eye.
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: On, Darren.
• 15:55
  Speaker 7: Do you see the global economy entering a recession soft landing?
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: Do you see any of that on the.
• 16:01
  Speaker 8: I think if you step back and look the US,
• 16:04
  Speaker 8: I think is in reasonably good shape. I think China
• 16:06
  Speaker 8: continues a very slow emergence from some of the challenges
• 16:09
  Speaker 8: had in the past. I think Europe is probably the
• 16:12
  Speaker 8: most challenge reason as I look around the world, and
• 16:15
  Speaker 8: obviously they've been disadvantaged with the lack of energy security
• 16:18
  Speaker 8: and some of the challenges they've had with the loss
• 16:20
  Speaker 8: of affordable and natural gas, and so I think that's
• 16:23
  Speaker 8: going to continue to weigh on the European economies.
• 16:26
  Speaker 6: And then I.
• 16:27
  Speaker 8: Think feel relatively comfortable with what we're seeing in the
• 16:30
  Speaker 8: other parts of the world, and we'll see we build
• 16:32
  Speaker 8: the business to handle any economic situation. We certainly go
• 16:37
  Speaker 8: through these cycles, and so we make sure that we're
• 16:39
  Speaker 8: robust to the down cycle.
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: Darren, you kind of.
• 16:41
  Speaker 7: Let me perfectly there because I wanted to ask about
• 16:44
  Speaker 7: LNG in particular. Guyana, you have a new partner there
• 16:47
  Speaker 7: and at Chevron, you guys are not unlike working with
• 16:50
  Speaker 7: each other. You guys do this all the time. Have
• 16:52
  Speaker 7: you talked to Mike recently? What kind of development can
• 16:55
  Speaker 7: you guys come together and really drive technology to get
• 16:58
  Speaker 7: more stuff out of the ground there.
• 17:00
  Speaker 8: Well, I think if you look at what we've been doing, Guyana,
• 17:02
  Speaker 8: we've got a really good track record there. You know,
• 17:04
  Speaker 8: we're the operator there, We run the projects, we're developing
• 17:07
  Speaker 8: those projects. We've demonstrated over the last several years the
• 17:10
  Speaker 8: ability to bring in these large, complicated projects at world
• 17:15
  Speaker 8: class schedules, world class costs. We're beating our budgets, we're
• 17:19
  Speaker 8: beating our schedules, and then once we get them online,
• 17:21
  Speaker 8: we're running them at levels higher than what the investment
• 17:24
  Speaker 8: basis was. So a very successful development process. We've got
• 17:28
  Speaker 8: three votes, the third vote coming on here in November,
• 17:31
  Speaker 8: and three more in the pipeline, so I think we've
• 17:33
  Speaker 8: got a pretty good suite of technologies and capital projects
• 17:37
  Speaker 8: that our organization is developing. We've worked with HESSE in
• 17:41
  Speaker 8: the past. Of course, we work with Chevron all around
• 17:43
  Speaker 8: the world. I see them their participation basically basically coming
• 17:47
  Speaker 8: in and supporting the work that we've already demonstrated our
• 17:50
  Speaker 8: ability to deliver on.
• 17:51
  Speaker 10: Don This is an industry that feels like it's back
• 17:53
  Speaker 10: on the front foots that you are optimistic that you
• 17:56
  Speaker 10: can see deals getting done.
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: The industry is doing deals.
• 17:59
  Speaker 10: We see two manive ones over the last few days,
• 18:01
  Speaker 10: yours obviously included within that age. Do you think that's true?
• 18:06
  Speaker 10: Which then takes me to a kind of bigger picture story.
• 18:09
  Speaker 10: This industry has been pushed back hard over the last
• 18:11
  Speaker 10: ten years, let's call it by the ESG movement.
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: Do you think that ESG movement is now over?
• 18:19
  Speaker 6: I hope not.
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: I don't think you know ESG.
• 18:21
  Speaker 8: From our standpoint, this is not an either or proposition.
• 18:24
  Speaker 8: This is an and equation where you've got to do both.
• 18:27
  Speaker 8: You've got to develop the resources and the energy supplies
• 18:29
  Speaker 8: that the world quickly needs to support economic growth and
• 18:32
  Speaker 8: support people standards of living. And we've got to do
• 18:34
  Speaker 8: things to reduce the emissions we're working on both of
• 18:37
  Speaker 8: those things, and so I don't see those competing against
• 18:39
  Speaker 8: one another. In fact, to my point before, we're working
• 18:43
  Speaker 8: on a set of solutions that are complementary and leverage
• 18:46
  Speaker 8: the same skills and capacity. So we've always leaned into
• 18:50
  Speaker 8: the need to produce low cost, low emissions energy sources
• 18:54
  Speaker 8: and do that in our traditional businesses. We have continued
• 18:57
  Speaker 8: to invest in that space, and we're continuing to work
• 18:59
  Speaker 8: opportunity needs to grow value in that space. At the
• 19:02
  Speaker 8: same time, we're leaning into the energy transition and using
• 19:06
  Speaker 8: those capabilities to help not only reduce emissions in our
• 19:09
  Speaker 8: own operations, but we're helping third parties, particularly harder to
• 19:12
  Speaker 8: carbonize industries, lower their emissions. We've got three large world
• 19:17
  Speaker 8: scale contracts with fertilizer manufacturer, and industrial gas manufacturer and
• 19:24
  Speaker 8: steel manufacturer to capture their emissions. Those three contracts in
• 19:28
  Speaker 8: themselves is the equivalent of putting two million electric vehicles
• 19:31
  Speaker 8: on the road. That's a number of electric vehicles that
• 19:33
  Speaker 8: are currently on the road in the US. So think
• 19:35
  Speaker 8: about that. Free deals with carbon capturing and storage equate
• 19:38
  Speaker 8: to the same level of electric vehicles that are currently
• 19:42
  Speaker 8: on the market.
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: Hey, Darren, we know you've got to run.
• 19:44
  Speaker 7: Thank you so much. We really appreciate you taking the
• 19:46
  Speaker 7: time with us today. It was great to get through that.
• 19:47
  Speaker 7: Next time we're going to talk about four mile laterals
• 19:49
  Speaker 7: and new technology Darren Wood's excell On Mobile chairman and CEO.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: All right, that was Bloomberg's Alex Steel and Guy Johnson
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: interviewing Excellent Chairman CEO Darren Woods. There the company reported
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: some numbers last night, as did Chevrons. Hear some of
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: the big energy companies still with us here in our
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg and aactor broker studios Fernando Valley, he covers all
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: the energy space for Bloomberg Intelligence. So Fernanda, just stepping back,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: I was listening to what the mister Woods was saying.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: What's kind of the investment call out in the street
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: for Exon today?
• 20:20
  Speaker 12: Well, I think there are two points. First, as Guy
• 20:22
  Speaker 12: was trying to ask if they're ever going to do
• 20:24
  Speaker 12: renewable power, they're not. I mean, I think that was
• 20:26
  Speaker 12: pretty clear. He's going to continue investing in oil and
• 20:29
  Speaker 12: he sees an opportunity to seize market share from other
• 20:32
  Speaker 12: players have stepped back, namely the European players, and he's
• 20:36
  Speaker 12: done that by buying probably the premiere asset in the
• 20:39
  Speaker 12: world and pioneer and then going down and deploying some
• 20:42
  Speaker 12: of his technologies, there's still some questions in my mind
• 20:45
  Speaker 12: as to whether those technologies will actually have the impact,
• 20:47
  Speaker 12: he says, but there's no question that he bought the
• 20:51
  Speaker 12: best asset available. I think as long as we believe
• 20:55
  Speaker 12: that oil will have twenty to thirty years, he's done
• 20:59
  Speaker 12: a tremendous job in retooling excellent portfolio. All of their
• 21:03
  Speaker 12: main assets now have been acquired since he became CEO,
• 21:07
  Speaker 12: and as he said, Guiana is the next best one
• 21:10
  Speaker 12: and it's a tremendous asset. As you saw with Chevron,
• 21:14
  Speaker 12: buying has just to get into that.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: So just quick question on that, as long as we
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: believe oil will have twenty or thirty years, are there
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: people who think we won't use oil in thirty years
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: or fifty years.
• 21:27
  Speaker 12: Well, I'm glad you asked, not that we won't use it,
• 21:30
  Speaker 12: but that will peak in by twenty thirty. The International
• 21:33
  Speaker 12: Energy Agency just put out their Oil outlook saying as
• 21:37
  Speaker 12: much this week.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: That will peak that what will the peak oil in
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: terms of pulling it out of the ground.
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: Will be twenty thirty.
• 21:45
  Speaker 12: Demand demand used will be twenty thirty.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Does the industry believe that.
• 21:50
  Speaker 12: Well, certainly doesn't seem like Darren or Mike Worth from
• 21:53
  Speaker 12: Chevron believes that, otherwise they wouldn't have bought twenty five
• 21:56
  Speaker 12: plus year assets on.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: That right, I think Fativi Roll tends to exaggerate in
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: that direction, right. I mean he also, well, whatever we
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: can be.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: But if we if we go talk to BP or
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Total or any of the European ones, we're going to
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: get a different story than we heard from Chevron or Excellent.
• 22:14
  Speaker 12: Not so much from Total Total. Patrick has been very
• 22:18
  Speaker 12: open and he thinks, similar to to to what Darren
• 22:21
  Speaker 12: Woods said, it's an all of the above. I think
• 22:24
  Speaker 12: when you look at just energy to me man and
• 22:26
  Speaker 12: how much emergent markets still don't consume, it's the more
• 22:30
  Speaker 12: energy you offer them ore you will be consumed. So
• 22:32
  Speaker 12: it's an all of the above, not just if and
• 22:36
  Speaker 12: sort of solution.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Interesting. I don't know. I think it's we've heard peak
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: oil so many times before.
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: Dude.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: I started hearing peak oil when I was a little kid,
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: and I'm almost fifty.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: But that's because I grew up.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: I grew up with Charlie Maxwell, and he was the
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: first person to really call peak oil and he was
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: very wrong, you know, and certainly in terms of time.
• 22:57
  Speaker 12: As long as Matt's driving, we won't hit Piggy.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great point there driving the Dodge Challenger,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: scappack whatever that thing is that burns fuel like you
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: wouldn't believe, but it sounds good and it looks good.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Fernanda Valley, thanks so much for joining us senior analysts
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: covering the global energy space for Bloomberg Intelligence.
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape Kensur Live program Bloomberg Markets
• 23:19
  Speaker 6: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune
• 23:22
  Speaker 6: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app.
• 23:25
  Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
• 23:28
  Speaker 6: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Obviously, we are right smack in the middle of earnings,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: and we have some good numbers out of Amazon offsetting
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: some of the perhaps a week with then expected numbers
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: we got from some of the other tech names earlier
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: this week. So lots of crosswinds for this market to digest.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: That's why we check in with some pros who do
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: this for a living. Nadia Leavell joins us. She's a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: senior US equity strategist within the global wealth management business
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: at UBS. So Nadia, again, I was just kind of
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: suggesting a lot of crosswinds. Seems like there always is
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: for investors to kind of navigate here. You put it
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: all together, you look at kind of what we're hearing
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: from Corporate America and the earnings as well as the
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: economic data as well as a geopolitical data. What do
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: you what's kind of the message you're going out to
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: for the UBS clients.
• 24:16
  Speaker 13: You know, our messages that we still remain constructive on
• 24:18
  Speaker 13: the market. I mean, we had expected earnest to sort
• 24:21
  Speaker 13: of be the stabilizer in the face of higher bond yields.
• 24:26
  Speaker 13: And it's been a tough earning season so far, not
• 24:28
  Speaker 13: because companies are missing expectations, they are actually being in expectations,
• 24:33
  Speaker 13: but the stock market response has been more mutant and
• 24:36
  Speaker 13: even negative, and those that have had the weaker outlook
• 24:40
  Speaker 13: on guidance have actually been punished in this market environment.
• 24:44
  Speaker 13: And so what that is telling us is that the
• 24:46
  Speaker 13: bar is high, and of course those higher bondials are
• 24:49
  Speaker 13: also challenging a relative attractiveness of the equity market. But
• 24:54
  Speaker 13: we do think that the market is hitting some key
• 24:56
  Speaker 13: technical levels.
• 24:57
  Speaker 9: You now seeing the S and P five.
• 24:59
  Speaker 13: Hundred trade onto that two hundred day and moving average
• 25:02
  Speaker 13: and flirting with correction territory. So we think when we
• 25:05
  Speaker 13: get into the back half of the earnest season that
• 25:07
  Speaker 13: hopefully that would act like a stabilizer and companies will
• 25:11
  Speaker 13: continue to be We do think that the outlook for
• 25:13
  Speaker 13: earnest hasn't improved just given the strength of the economy,
• 25:16
  Speaker 13: and so essentially we are buyers on this weakness.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Nice. So I mean, as we think about these markets here,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess, are you at the point where
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: you think we're at peak rates here and that the
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: next move, whenever it does come, will be lower, or
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: you still have some Federal reserve risk in your outlook?
• 25:35
  Speaker 13: You know, next week we'll see what the Fed messaging is.
• 25:37
  Speaker 13: We do think that the Fed is done hike it.
• 25:40
  Speaker 13: I mean, I think it's widely expected at this point
• 25:43
  Speaker 13: that the Federal will remain on whole next week. We
• 25:46
  Speaker 13: did hear some of that being echoed by several of
• 25:48
  Speaker 13: US SAYS speakers ahead of the blackout beard. Some might
• 25:52
  Speaker 13: say that November is a skip, but we think that
• 25:54
  Speaker 13: the hike and cycle ended back in July. I mean,
• 25:57
  Speaker 13: we all know the financial conditions are tight in quite
• 26:00
  Speaker 13: a bit, and the long uncurd have moved up and
• 26:03
  Speaker 13: it's doing exactly what the FED had hoped to do.
• 26:06
  Speaker 13: So that transition mechanism of title monetary policies happened, and
• 26:10
  Speaker 13: as we heard German policy last week, they could be
• 26:12
  Speaker 13: even more in a pipeline just given the fact that
• 26:14
  Speaker 13: the FED.
• 26:15
  Speaker 9: Has raised interest rate so quickly over the last year.
• 26:18
  Speaker 13: So we think that the hiking cycle is done in
• 26:21
  Speaker 13: terms of the outlook for sort of.
• 26:22
  Speaker 9: The ten year treasury note.
• 26:24
  Speaker 13: And yeel on that reality is market polity remains so high,
• 26:28
  Speaker 13: so it's difficult to know if we've seen a peak
• 26:30
  Speaker 13: on the long end of the curve. We could see
• 26:32
  Speaker 13: it tests five percent again. But we do think that
• 26:35
  Speaker 13: once a FED is done hiking, and that's clear and
• 26:37
  Speaker 13: economic growth slows, we expected the tenure to come back
• 26:40
  Speaker 13: to words three and a half percent by the time
• 26:42
  Speaker 13: we get to mid next year.
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: Wow, So you think, I guess investors, certainly domestic investors
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: are buying these bonds, but it doesn't look like there's
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: any demand internationally even at five percent.
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: What pushes us back down?
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: Do we get our deficits and debt under control as
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: a as a country, or just the slow down in
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: the economy.
• 27:06
  Speaker 13: It's more the slow down of the economy. We do
• 27:10
  Speaker 13: know that there's a bit of a term permium that's
• 27:12
  Speaker 13: being built in on along end of the curve, just
• 27:14
  Speaker 13: given the concerns around the deficits. So what we really
• 27:17
  Speaker 13: think is going to drive bonios lower is going to
• 27:19
  Speaker 13: be a slower economy inflation of baiting. I mean you
• 27:22
  Speaker 13: saw today in terms of PC, yes, headlined to surprise
• 27:27
  Speaker 13: a little bit to the upside, but more importantly, core
• 27:29
  Speaker 13: PCE continues to moderate. I mean you have here over
• 27:33
  Speaker 13: here cor PC at three point seven percent. That's right
• 27:36
  Speaker 13: in line where the Fed had expected it to be
• 27:39
  Speaker 13: at the end of the year. And so we're ahead
• 27:42
  Speaker 13: of trend, and we think that that corp pc is
• 27:43
  Speaker 13: going to come down even by another twenty five basis
• 27:46
  Speaker 13: point by the time we get to the end of
• 27:47
  Speaker 13: the year. And so that's partly why we think the
• 27:49
  Speaker 13: Fed is done hiking, and that should help to sort
• 27:52
  Speaker 13: of stabilize bondials and push them low, and we are
• 27:54
  Speaker 13: looking for a period of subtrain economic growth. We don't
• 27:57
  Speaker 13: think that the momentum that we see in the third
• 27:59
  Speaker 13: quarter is going to continue at the same pace, and
• 28:02
  Speaker 13: so we think that GDP would come in one undid
• 28:04
  Speaker 13: two percent by the time we get to the year
• 28:06
  Speaker 13: end and into next year, and that's will help bring
• 28:08
  Speaker 13: down bond yields.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Blue Button, thank you very much. Today's a big energy
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: day for investors NA day. We had Chevron and x
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: On Mobile report their numbers. We heard at Bloomberg Television.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: We just heard from the ex chairman and CEO, Darren Woods.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: What's your call at ubs for energy? Still some room
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: to go there for energy investing.
• 28:29
  Speaker 9: We think.
• 28:30
  Speaker 13: So we do like it on this pullback, and it
• 28:32
  Speaker 13: has a lot to do with our core view and
• 28:34
  Speaker 13: the outlook for well, let me we all know that
• 28:36
  Speaker 13: global inventories continue to see jar down and there are
• 28:40
  Speaker 13: multi year low just given the continuous stands by open
• 28:43
  Speaker 13: plus the constraints supply, and we think that that's going
• 28:46
  Speaker 13: to continue into next year. And demand remains quite robust,
• 28:49
  Speaker 13: and of course you know we have the ongoing conflict
• 28:52
  Speaker 13: and the war in the Middle East that could put
• 28:54
  Speaker 13: some upward pressure to oil prices, and so we think
• 28:57
  Speaker 13: that Brent oil is going to get back above.
• 28:58
  Speaker 9: Ninety and probably hover ninety five dollars into next.
• 29:01
  Speaker 13: Year, and that should be supportive to the energy sector.
• 29:04
  Speaker 13: We've seeing some weaknesses today just given the earnings in
• 29:06
  Speaker 13: terms of concerns around refining more margins, and that's why
• 29:10
  Speaker 13: we continue to prefer d MPs and some of the
• 29:12
  Speaker 13: oil services companies within the sector.
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: If we get into a recession, which stocks take the
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: biggest hit?
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: Do you think?
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: Because last time we got worried about this market, it
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: was interesting to see investors look to big growthy tech
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: companies as almost safe havens.
• 29:33
  Speaker 13: You know, I think in terms of like traditionally what
• 29:35
  Speaker 13: get hits in a recessionary environments and more cyclical errors
• 29:38
  Speaker 13: of the market. You know, financials have been a lot
• 29:40
  Speaker 13: under a lot of pressure of the banks that provision.
• 29:43
  Speaker 9: For an recessionary environment.
• 29:45
  Speaker 13: But you could see an additional letdown as there will
• 29:48
  Speaker 13: be increased concerns around credit and defaults on credit and
• 29:52
  Speaker 13: delinquency picking up, or so you probably see those areas
• 29:54
  Speaker 13: of cyclical errors of the market get hit in terms
• 29:57
  Speaker 13: of sort of the quality growth names, particularly in tact.
• 30:00
  Speaker 9: Remember, these companies have.
• 30:00
  Speaker 13: Very strong balance sheet, their self fund in and so
• 30:03
  Speaker 13: we would expect them to be able to weather the
• 30:06
  Speaker 13: storm a little bit better.
• 30:07
  Speaker 9: There are parts of tech that are quite defensive, included software.
• 30:10
  Speaker 13: Recurrent revenues are there, and also parts of tech like
• 30:13
  Speaker 13: cybersecurity that we think are more defensive play than sort
• 30:16
  Speaker 13: of the cyclical semiconductors of tech.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: And Nattie, thank you so much for joining us. Really
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: appreciate getting some of your time at Nattie levelle. She
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: is the senior US equity strategist for Global Wealth Management.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Over there at ubs.
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: You're listening to the team Ken's are live program Bloomberg
• 30:34
  Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot Com,
• 30:38
  Speaker 6: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen
• 30:41
  Speaker 6: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Matt Miller Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Brokers Studio, streaming live on YouTube. I don't know what
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: to do with this market, no idea, yields are higher?
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Can stocks work? You know, Tom's in his triple leverage
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: all cash fun He's sleeping like a baby. But what
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: do the rest of us do. Maybe our next guests
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: can help help us out here. Alex Chaloff, co head
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: of investment Strategies at Bernstein Private Wealth Management. He's based
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: in Los Angeles, where we got him live here in
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio today. So that's good, Alex.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: What are you telling people? If I come up to
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: you at a cocktail party tonight and I say, what's
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: your market call? What do you got for me? T
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Bill and chill, T Bill and Chilsee that's Matt Miller's
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: been calling that.
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the ETF. How do you go about it? Well,
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: I think there's a number of different ways. I mean,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: anything on the short end is going to pay you.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: You're not taking any risk, and you have the flex
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: to do something different. If we get some I don't
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: know if we will, but if we get some real
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: dubbish language from Chair of Powell next week, then all
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, it's off to the races and it's
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: go time. So I think you want to have liquidity,
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: you want to have an ability to flexa and do something.
• 31:44
  Speaker 14: But I don't think it's binary. I don't think it's
• 31:46
  Speaker 14: cash or something else. I think it's a mixture, and
• 31:49
  Speaker 14: we're hopeful that Powell gives us a signal that it's
• 31:52
  Speaker 14: okay to step a little bit out.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: But on the respect, does dubvish language from Powell next week?
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: Does that just take the fed out of the equation
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: for the seeable future because they're not going to do
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: anything on rates. They're still going to be doing QT,
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: but they're not going to up it. Is that what
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: you want?
• 32:07
  Speaker 11: Yeah, I don't.
• 32:07
  Speaker 14: I mean, a dubbish language is like Nirvana. He's not
• 32:10
  Speaker 14: saying it right, he's I mean, all we can hope
• 32:13
  Speaker 14: for is we're thinking about, thinking about, thinking about so
• 32:16
  Speaker 14: I we're prepared for thinking.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: About think about thinking about cutting or think about think
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: about being done being done.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean our view is they're done.
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he's not.
• 32:25
  Speaker 14: Language is free, right, he can say whatever he wants
• 32:27
  Speaker 14: in the presser and that's what he's going to do.
• 32:29
  Speaker 14: He's going to be just as as hawkish as he's
• 32:32
  Speaker 14: been and scare the heck out of everyone in the market.
• 32:35
  Speaker 14: And that's just we have to live with that. So
• 32:37
  Speaker 14: our expectation as they're done, but they won't tell you
• 32:40
  Speaker 14: they're done until well after the fact. And that's why
• 32:42
  Speaker 14: we're talking to clients about t bill and chill for now,
• 32:45
  Speaker 14: but get ready to turn the dial. And there's not
• 32:47
  Speaker 14: going to be a green light. He's never going to say, hey, everybody,
• 32:50
  Speaker 14: we're done. He's going to hint and hint and hint,
• 32:53
  Speaker 14: and you've got to read through the lines. But if
• 32:54
  Speaker 14: you're a long term investor, that's less important. It's more
• 32:57
  Speaker 14: important to know that we're almost at the end. Whether
• 33:00
  Speaker 14: we're right and he's done, or somebody else's right and
• 33:02
  Speaker 14: they've got one more this, we're really close.
• 33:05
  Speaker 5: To being done.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Yep, that's kind of the call here. The question is
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: you know how close? And so let's just focus on
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: something a little bit more fundamental or smack in the
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: middle of earning season here. Any takeaways that you guys
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: are focusing on here or what are you looking forward
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: to hear from these management teams.
• 33:18
  Speaker 14: Yeah, it's still early, so you know, our earning scorecard
• 33:22
  Speaker 14: isn't yet. I wish I was back here in a
• 33:24
  Speaker 14: week because a busy week next week, not just the
• 33:27
  Speaker 14: FED meeting, but a number of really big names.
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: I think the.
• 33:30
  Speaker 14: Biggest learning that's emerged from the early part of the
• 33:32
  Speaker 14: earning season is how much companies who give poor guidance
• 33:36
  Speaker 14: are getting beaten up. The guys that are delivering solid results,
• 33:40
  Speaker 14: they're even getting the beats, and the majority of your beats,
• 33:42
  Speaker 14: I mean, the beats are ahead of what they've been
• 33:44
  Speaker 14: over the last couple of quarters. So feel good about that.
• 33:46
  Speaker 14: But boy, the misses are getting clobbered, and so the guidance.
• 33:50
  Speaker 14: When a guidance is week, either in printed or in
• 33:53
  Speaker 14: the calls, ye look out, it's I get.
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: The same feeling I get.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: I get the feeling that if you meet or beat,
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: you're okay, it's snow big deal. But if you miss,
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: they're gonna take you to the woodhouse.
• 34:05
  Speaker 14: Yeah, it's it's I mean, it's always been that way.
• 34:08
  Speaker 14: But I think right now, just in your opening comments
• 34:11
  Speaker 14: like what do you do with this market, I think
• 34:13
  Speaker 14: of a poor guidance or uh, someone coming out and
• 34:17
  Speaker 14: just saying, look, I think next year is gonna be tough,
• 34:19
  Speaker 14: or even the first half of next year is gonna
• 34:21
  Speaker 14: be tough. It's you're right, you are getting taken out.
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: We've seen some big beats.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, if I look at S and P index
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: EA go on the terminal two hundred and forty five
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: out of the five hundred have reported on the S
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: and P.
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: Earning surprise seven point four percent. Ye, so big beats.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: And if I look down the list of you know
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: who's done it, consumer discretionary is ripping. They're about fifteen
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: percent over expectations. And if you look at just growth
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: over the same quarter last year, it's also huge, you know,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: six point a five point eight percent, five point nine
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: percent in terms.
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: Of earnings growth.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: And if you look at consumer discretionary fifty four percent
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: in terms of earnings growth of the same core last year.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: If you look at communications thirty five percent over the
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: same corel last year.
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: So they're doing well.
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: Are we gonna see these kind of earnings seasons continue
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: into twenty twenty four? A, we're gonna see you know,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: five six seven percent earnings growth?
• 35:21
  Speaker 14: Well, first I thought you were gonna ask me, why
• 35:23
  Speaker 14: isn't the market up on this incredible earning?
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: So why the market's not up?
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: You got yields that are off to the races, right
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: offering as you say, T bill and chill.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: You got a lot of competition from yields.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Plus you've got a rising dollar, plus you've got rising
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: oil costs.
• 35:37
  Speaker 14: So yeah, no, it makes sense. It makes sense that
• 35:40
  Speaker 14: we're bouncing around, and I think you also have this
• 35:42
  Speaker 14: specter of a recession out there. So there's two things
• 35:45
  Speaker 14: that are going on. One is the cell side is
• 35:47
  Speaker 14: talking about earnings and they really haven't budged their numbers much.
• 35:50
  Speaker 14: We think that it's frankly, the buyside firms that aren't publishing,
• 35:53
  Speaker 14: that aren't telling you what they're doing with their numbers.
• 35:55
  Speaker 14: They've taken them down. So we would expect to see
• 35:58
  Speaker 14: some slow down in earnings the next couple of quarters.
• 36:01
  Speaker 14: By the way, macro perspective, don't think we're going into recession.
• 36:04
  Speaker 14: Think we get through, but earnings will slow from here.
• 36:07
  Speaker 14: Whether that's this quarter or next quarter or Q two,
• 36:12
  Speaker 14: we'll see, but it's it's definitely earning slowed down from here.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: By the way, Is this normal being in you know,
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: a red hot economy looking back, but everybody kind of
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: biting their fingernails and worrying.
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: About a recession around the corner? Is that normal?
• 36:25
  Speaker 6: Yeah?
• 36:26
  Speaker 14: It's it's there's so many people out there that don't
• 36:28
  Speaker 14: even know what a five percent tenure looks like, right
• 36:31
  Speaker 14: that people have said, oh, wait, can the tenure really go?
• 36:33
  Speaker 14: I mean, there's some people that think that's almost like
• 36:35
  Speaker 14: the artificial ceiling, that's as high as it can go. Yes,
• 36:39
  Speaker 14: this is normal, even if you go back to the
• 36:40
  Speaker 14: early two thousands when the economy was steaming, not knowing
• 36:43
  Speaker 14: the GFC was on right around the corner, but there
• 36:46
  Speaker 14: was concern around have we overcooked this thing?
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: I look, I go on Challenger talk dot com. You know,
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: it's a forum for dodge buyers.
• 36:56
  Speaker 15: And I'm not on them aft and and you know
• 36:59
  Speaker 15: there'll be a headline, you know, Challenger sales are down,
• 37:03
  Speaker 15: and somebody will be like, yeah, because these those economies
• 37:05
  Speaker 15: and the crapper you know, And I'm.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: Like, really, yeah, five percent GDP growth, three and a
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: half percent unemployment, This feels like a bad economy to you.
• 37:14
  Speaker 6: It does.
• 37:14
  Speaker 14: Yeah, And look at the participation rate is creeping up,
• 37:17
  Speaker 14: and where like you said, wage growth has been consistent,
• 37:20
  Speaker 14: consumers are spending. I think what that comment is a
• 37:23
  Speaker 14: reaction to is the savings rate coming down. So coming
• 37:26
  Speaker 14: out of COVID, all that money pumped into the system,
• 37:29
  Speaker 14: everyone had bloated balance sheets up and down the well spectrum.
• 37:32
  Speaker 14: Now it's really the upper end of the well spectrum
• 37:35
  Speaker 14: that has the dollars and the lower end is spent
• 37:37
  Speaker 14: through and that's why you're starting to see credit card
• 37:39
  Speaker 14: numbers pop up. So there really is a tail of
• 37:42
  Speaker 14: two cities going on. At the upper end, everyone is
• 37:45
  Speaker 14: comfortable t bill and chill. At the lower end, we've
• 37:48
  Speaker 14: seen the reduction in savings and that's starting to you
• 37:50
  Speaker 14: can you can feel it when.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: You guys do dip your toe back into the water.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: What are some of the sectors that you guys might.
• 37:55
  Speaker 14: Be I think there's two ways to dip toe. One
• 37:58
  Speaker 14: is into equities. The other, well, there's three equities, fixed income.
• 38:01
  Speaker 14: I think there you're going to be traditional. I think
• 38:03
  Speaker 14: if we get a slowdown in earnings, if rates stay high,
• 38:06
  Speaker 14: you want to be with quality. You want to be
• 38:08
  Speaker 14: with good balance sheets, you want to be with reliable
• 38:10
  Speaker 14: cash flow. But I also think there's an incredible opportunity
• 38:13
  Speaker 14: that exists in the private markets. One, because public plans
• 38:17
  Speaker 14: big LPs are way over their skis with illiquidity and
• 38:20
  Speaker 14: they're selling like crazy. And two they've got no money
• 38:23
  Speaker 14: to put into those markets for the next two maybe
• 38:26
  Speaker 14: three years, and so the valuations are coming down there.
• 38:29
  Speaker 14: And I think this is in primaries it's in secondaries,
• 38:31
  Speaker 14: it's in private equity, it's in venture capital, it's in
• 38:33
  Speaker 14: real estate, it's everywhere in the private mark used to be.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: It burns in running the alternative asset strategies. I was
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: so talktales, give us your two cents on private credit.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: Matt and I have just been fascinated. We're about to quit.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: We're going to go open up a private credit. Yes.
• 38:48
  Speaker 14: Yes, private credit has been incredible over this cycle. People
• 38:53
  Speaker 14: thought in COVID, oh no, this is this is the
• 38:55
  Speaker 14: end because a lot of the public BDCs were under pressure,
• 38:58
  Speaker 14: but private credit through that made money in that market,
• 39:02
  Speaker 14: did very well in twenty one, made money last year
• 39:04
  Speaker 14: in twenty two, and I've seen private credit numbers so
• 39:07
  Speaker 14: far this year that have double digits on them on
• 39:09
  Speaker 14: a year to day basis. So look, they've weathered the storm.
• 39:12
  Speaker 14: It's all about underwriting. All about underwriting. If you're a conservative,
• 39:15
  Speaker 14: you're gonna be fine. If you took crazy risk a
• 39:17
  Speaker 14: couple years ago because you needed to win that deal,
• 39:19
  Speaker 14: you're gonna be in trouble. YEP, isn't there definitely a
• 39:22
  Speaker 14: double issues? Nobody's watching these guys.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say nobody's watching those guys.
• 39:27
  Speaker 14: I mean, we have a private credit business that we
• 39:30
  Speaker 14: spend a whole lot of time really with our hands
• 39:33
  Speaker 14: deep in it. I think others do as well. Yes,
• 39:35
  Speaker 14: is the regulatory oversight different in the public markets? This
• 39:38
  Speaker 14: is in private That's a risk, that's definitely a risk.
• 39:41
  Speaker 14: But if you're with somebody that's a track record of
• 39:43
  Speaker 14: success in and out of tough markets, I'm gonna say,
• 39:47
  Speaker 14: you're gonna be fine.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: Paul, what are you doing?
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: Are you calling for regulation before we start our shop,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: before we started out. I'm just waiting for some big deal,
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: a couple of deals to blow up, and they we're.
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: Gonna be like way, Elizabeth Warren, Please don't.
• 40:01
  Speaker 14: You could have a couple of blow ups, But that
• 40:03
  Speaker 14: actually creates opportunity because there's so much money on the
• 40:06
  Speaker 14: sidelines waiting to rescue that. That's the thing that I
• 40:09
  Speaker 14: think people miss. If we have a blip in private credit,
• 40:11
  Speaker 14: it's going to be like a thirty second blip because
• 40:13
  Speaker 14: there's so much money waiting to just get in there
• 40:16
  Speaker 14: and get after it.
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: All.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: Right, Alex, good job, I just promoted you. During the
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: course of this discussion from cohead of Investment Strategies, to
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: chief Investment Officer of Bernstein Private Wealth Management. So congratulations,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: thank you, thank you. We appreciate that you're based in LA.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Anytime you're in New York, you're welcome. Come back in love.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: I'm hearing your market call here.
• 40:33
  Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape CANSUR live program Bloomberg Markets
• 40:36
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• 40:40
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• 40:43
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• 40:46
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• 40:51
  Speaker 16: Welcome to our Bloomberg TV and radio audiences worldwide. Shares
• 40:55
  Speaker 16: of Intel popping today is the chipmaker predicted a return
• 40:58
  Speaker 16: to sales growth in the full quarter, fuel by rebound
• 41:01
  Speaker 16: in the personal computer market, but also a more competitive
• 41:05
  Speaker 16: product lineup. Joining us now is Intel CEO Pat eel Singer,
• 41:09
  Speaker 16: And look, Pat, there was quite a long list of
• 41:11
  Speaker 16: things that investors cheered right. This is the third quarter
• 41:15
  Speaker 16: where the market's basically said, Pat, we believe you on
• 41:18
  Speaker 16: the turnaround story, but on your to do list, where
• 41:22
  Speaker 16: do you think you are and what do you think
• 41:24
  Speaker 16: you have left? To do on that turnaround story.
• 41:27
  Speaker 17: Yeah, thanks Ed, And you know, overall, hey, it was
• 41:30
  Speaker 17: a great as we said, just a clean beat and
• 41:33
  Speaker 17: raise on all the financial metrics, but even more important
• 41:36
  Speaker 17: was the operational performance. And you know, as we said, hey,
• 41:40
  Speaker 17: getting back to process leadership, and we delivered key milestones
• 41:44
  Speaker 17: and we still have at least another year or two
• 41:46
  Speaker 17: to go on getting that done, but major milestones.
• 41:49
  Speaker 11: Starting to deliver Foundry customers.
• 41:52
  Speaker 17: You know, I promised one at the start of the year,
• 41:54
  Speaker 17: and now we have three on our most advanced process technology,
• 41:57
  Speaker 17: major packaging wins, and of course it's the product execution,
• 42:01
  Speaker 17: you know, clean launch of the AIPC generation, but also
• 42:06
  Speaker 17: the server business getting back to profitability ahead of schedule
• 42:10
  Speaker 17: and a little bit better performance there and delivering the
• 42:13
  Speaker 17: AI Everywhere message with our accelerators our server product line.
• 42:18
  Speaker 17: So a really excellent quarter and I'm just so grateful
• 42:21
  Speaker 17: for the Intel team. It's been a journey and we
• 42:23
  Speaker 17: are clearly coming back.
• 42:26
  Speaker 16: A pat You've talked to investors and indeed to Caroline
• 42:29
  Speaker 16: and I about these new customers for the foundry business.
• 42:33
  Speaker 16: When do we get names? When are you going to
• 42:35
  Speaker 16: announce who these customers are?
• 42:38
  Speaker 11: Well? You two things there.
• 42:39
  Speaker 17: Ed One is not generally the practice of the foundry
• 42:43
  Speaker 17: industry for the foundry to be declaring their customer names,
• 42:47
  Speaker 17: so one is not practice. And also many of the
• 42:49
  Speaker 17: customers consider it confidential and part of their competitive advantage
• 42:54
  Speaker 17: and how and what technologies they choose. So I can't
• 42:57
  Speaker 17: promise names, but we're going to characterize them as best
• 43:00
  Speaker 17: we can. And as we said, these are high performance
• 43:03
  Speaker 17: and AI customers, and we've really seen the surge of
• 43:06
  Speaker 17: interest in using the Intel technologies and foundry for different
• 43:11
  Speaker 17: AI offerings in the marketplace. And that's both a wafer
• 43:14
  Speaker 17: but also a packaging and this idea of advanced packaging.
• 43:18
  Speaker 17: I mean, in addition to the three on the wafer side,
• 43:20
  Speaker 17: we had two advanced packaging customers in AI and that
• 43:23
  Speaker 17: revenue materializes more rapidly and six more in the pipeline.
• 43:27
  Speaker 17: So overall a really substantial look orter and the AI
• 43:31
  Speaker 17: space in particular has been the customers that have seen
• 43:33
  Speaker 17: the most enthusiasm.
• 43:35
  Speaker 18: Let's talk about the AI space because the running of
• 43:38
  Speaker 18: AI models is where you see your future. It's not
• 43:40
  Speaker 18: all just about the foundation models. It's actually the running
• 43:43
  Speaker 18: of them, not the building. But can you just relieve
• 43:46
  Speaker 18: some of the anxiety coming from investors about a lack
• 43:49
  Speaker 18: of clarity over data center future. And indeed, what is
• 43:51
  Speaker 18: it that they need to hear from you? What more
• 43:53
  Speaker 18: can you articulate that really makes it clear to them
• 43:56
  Speaker 18: that you're going to be front and center in the
• 43:57
  Speaker 18: AI race.
• 43:59
  Speaker 17: Yeah, thanks, Kerr, And you know, really, you know, first
• 44:01
  Speaker 17: let's characterize what we're talking about in this idea of
• 44:04
  Speaker 17: creating you know, these frontier or foundation models is described
• 44:09
  Speaker 17: versus using right and the training and the inferencing against
• 44:13
  Speaker 17: those models, and I sort of compare it to like
• 44:15
  Speaker 17: weather models. Not that many people generate weather models, but
• 44:19
  Speaker 17: a lot of people use them. And that's how we
• 44:21
  Speaker 17: think about this next phase of AI. How do we
• 44:24
  Speaker 17: make this inferencing or the use of the models broadly available.
• 44:27
  Speaker 17: And that's going to be you know, in the client
• 44:30
  Speaker 17: right we talked about the AI PC. It's going to
• 44:32
  Speaker 17: be at the edge right in retail and manufacturing and
• 44:36
  Speaker 17: supply chains. But it's also going to be an on
• 44:39
  Speaker 17: premise data centers. And as we've said, instead of taking
• 44:42
  Speaker 17: my data to the cloud, I want to bring the
• 44:45
  Speaker 17: AI to my data center where the data is already
• 44:49
  Speaker 17: and finally work in the cloud, and you.
• 44:51
  Speaker 11: Know from the data center proper.
• 44:53
  Speaker 17: As your question talks about, Hey, you know, we knew
• 44:55
  Speaker 17: we were going to lose some market share here, right
• 44:58
  Speaker 17: Those losses happened last year and they're sort of playing
• 45:00
  Speaker 17: out of the marketplace. But our roadmap is strong, and
• 45:04
  Speaker 17: we over executed in the quarter on our next gen
• 45:08
  Speaker 17: ur Gen four product that did a bit better than
• 45:10
  Speaker 17: we thought and a lot of AI use cases in
• 45:12
  Speaker 17: this area of inferencing. The next generation Gen five, we're
• 45:16
  Speaker 17: already ramping that in production and that's going to get
• 45:19
  Speaker 17: announced in December. But next year's products, we're already seeing
• 45:22
  Speaker 17: great health and we're ahead of schedule in those and
• 45:24
  Speaker 17: those really improve our competitiveness. And the twenty five products
• 45:28
  Speaker 17: will go into fab in the first quarter of next year.
• 45:31
  Speaker 17: So our whole roadmap and execution has really improved, and
• 45:34
  Speaker 17: we start to see ourselves regaining market share in twenty
• 45:37
  Speaker 17: four in that area. And I think that will be
• 45:39
  Speaker 17: sort of the final piece of the turnaround story. When
• 45:43
  Speaker 17: the market sees, okay, data center is backstrong, they're winning in.
• 45:47
  Speaker 11: The AI space.
• 45:48
  Speaker 17: You know, that'll be the end of the turnaround story
• 45:50
  Speaker 17: and people say Okay, they did it.
• 45:52
  Speaker 18: We'll go back to that building that training of data.
• 45:56
  Speaker 18: Can you talk to a little about stability AI. Of
• 45:58
  Speaker 18: course you've got to deal to build that AI supercomputer.
• 46:01
  Speaker 18: Was that then really going to you for ultimately what
• 46:04
  Speaker 18: Gaudy can provide over what in video would or is
• 46:07
  Speaker 18: it that you wanted to really be sort of offering
• 46:11
  Speaker 18: them some carrots in the situation to be able to
• 46:13
  Speaker 18: be helping with the training of the models.
• 46:15
  Speaker 11: Yeah, great question.
• 46:16
  Speaker 17: And you know now with Gudi, we're now delivering performance
• 46:19
  Speaker 17: and benchmarks that are as good as the best in
• 46:22
  Speaker 17: the industry. So we've gotten our performance there. You know,
• 46:25
  Speaker 17: there was also some of this work that you know,
• 46:26
  Speaker 17: the models were created and much of the software industry
• 46:30
  Speaker 17: was working, you know, on the n video platform, so
• 46:33
  Speaker 17: we had to do some of the software work to
• 46:35
  Speaker 17: get those running on the Gaudy platform. And they're looking
• 46:38
  Speaker 17: for more cost effective choices and ones that are supply
• 46:41
  Speaker 17: chain available in the industry. And as we're ramping our
• 46:44
  Speaker 17: Goudi product line, we're getting that software work done. You know,
• 46:48
  Speaker 17: they're priced more competitively. Customers are saying, wow, I can
• 46:51
  Speaker 17: do that work and do it at a much lower
• 46:54
  Speaker 17: power performance envelope than the alternatives and have a much
• 46:58
  Speaker 17: more cost effective model training and inferencing at scale. Okay,
• 47:03
  Speaker 17: you're seeing a real surge of interest, and as I said,
• 47:06
  Speaker 17: we doubled our pipeline of customers this quarter. You know
• 47:09
  Speaker 17: when we, like others in the industry, are now supply
• 47:12
  Speaker 17: chain constrained and we're racing to catch up to that
• 47:15
  Speaker 17: demand on our GUDI product line.
• 47:18
  Speaker 16: For a Bloomberg radio and television audience worldwide, we're speaking
• 47:21
  Speaker 16: to the CEO of Intel, Pat Gelsinger. Pat, the story
• 47:24
  Speaker 16: of this week has been chip companies entering the PC
• 47:27
  Speaker 16: processor market on architecture, how do you hold off those newcomers,
• 47:33
  Speaker 16: you know, attention for example one Apple this coming Monday,
• 47:37
  Speaker 16: and they have done well in that domain.
• 47:41
  Speaker 17: Yeah, and I think of the AI you know, PC
• 47:45
  Speaker 17: as an exciting category and this is one that we announced.
• 47:49
  Speaker 17: We've been the first company on that and we're now
• 47:52
  Speaker 17: ramping our first generation AIPC products called the Core Ultra.
• 47:56
  Speaker 17: So others are talking about what they might do in
• 47:59
  Speaker 17: a year or two years. We're ramping products in the marketplace.
• 48:03
  Speaker 17: Today we announced over one hundred is vs in our
• 48:06
  Speaker 17: AI Acceleration program, so they're coming on board and before
• 48:10
  Speaker 17: others have their products even shipping in the marketplace.
• 48:13
  Speaker 11: We'll be launching our next generation.
• 48:15
  Speaker 17: Our Lunar Lake product, which we've already demonstrated for next year,
• 48:19
  Speaker 17: and Panther Lake, our twenty five product. We're sending that
• 48:22
  Speaker 17: into fab on our leadership, Intel eighteen A process Technology
• 48:26
  Speaker 17: and Q one. So I feel like we have a
• 48:28
  Speaker 17: very strong roadmap. And Hey, the idea of an ARM
• 48:32
  Speaker 17: based PC, you know, they've always been sort of niche
• 48:35
  Speaker 17: and low end, with the exception of Apple, and there
• 48:37
  Speaker 17: it's not ARM, it's Apple and their ecosystem. So for
• 48:41
  Speaker 17: the broader windows our market, you know, it's always been
• 48:43
  Speaker 17: pretty low end and insignificant in the bigger context. And
• 48:48
  Speaker 17: as long as we deliver our roadmap, I feel very
• 48:50
  Speaker 17: confident that it's others surge into the AIPC space. You know,
• 48:54
  Speaker 17: this is a lift to the overall PC market and
• 48:57
  Speaker 17: will be uniquely positioned to benefit from that.
• 49:01
  Speaker 16: Pat Going back just a second to stability in the
• 49:04
  Speaker 16: AI supercomputer. That's kind of in the assembled component domain.
• 49:07
  Speaker 16: But are you saying or are you able to confirm
• 49:10
  Speaker 16: that's a paid relationship with stability to phaise you for
• 49:14
  Speaker 16: use of Goudy.
• 49:15
  Speaker 17: Oh yeah, yeah, this is a major customer and we'll
• 49:19
  Speaker 17: be building that with them, of course, working closely with them,
• 49:22
  Speaker 17: but this is a paid customer relationship.
• 49:25
  Speaker 11: Yeah.
• 49:25
  Speaker 17: We also see quite another set around our OEMs. We
• 49:29
  Speaker 17: announced the major partnership with Dell right for not only
• 49:33
  Speaker 17: Xeon's but also Goudy's as they come on premise and
• 49:36
  Speaker 17: their cloud offerings.
• 49:38
  Speaker 11: You know, we've seen a.
• 49:38
  Speaker 17: Big upsurge in Goudy interest in the Intel Developer Cloud.
• 49:42
  Speaker 17: We had a five x increase in the developers on
• 49:45
  Speaker 17: our developer cloud, much of that on the Goudi platform.
• 49:49
  Speaker 17: And then I said, we saw, you know, well over
• 49:52
  Speaker 17: a billion dollars last quarter. We've approximately doubled that this
• 49:56
  Speaker 17: quarter of Goudy demand worldwide, and those are largely paid
• 50:00
  Speaker 17: aid customer engagements. So overall, we're just seeing a surge
• 50:04
  Speaker 17: of interest with Stability, AI, Dell, and many others.
• 50:09
  Speaker 16: Pat We every earnings look to your forecast for the
• 50:13
  Speaker 16: PC market, and you're slightly more positive than consensus in
• 50:17
  Speaker 16: terms of literally how many PCs you think will ship
• 50:20
  Speaker 16: around the world this year. I guess part of that
• 50:23
  Speaker 16: is baked into your sales forecast for the current period
• 50:26
  Speaker 16: as well, what gives you that confidence and why is
• 50:30
  Speaker 16: it that consumers will return to buying PCs.
• 50:34
  Speaker 17: Yeah, and there's probably three different factors there, you know.
• 50:36
  Speaker 17: One is I say, hey, we gave this two hundred
• 50:39
  Speaker 17: and seventy million ish PCs being sold through this year,
• 50:44
  Speaker 17: and we said that earlier in the year. Many thought
• 50:46
  Speaker 17: that we were too optimistic. Hey, we look at it
• 50:48
  Speaker 17: today and we're almost spot on with our accuracy on
• 50:52
  Speaker 17: that forecast. Second, we've seen the industry, you know, not
• 50:56
  Speaker 17: just Intel, but the industry overall. Inventory levels are now healthy,
• 51:01
  Speaker 17: you know, and we look at our selling rate versus
• 51:03
  Speaker 17: sellout rate, you know, the product is selling through. I'd
• 51:06
  Speaker 17: also say, hey, we're off to a good start in
• 51:09
  Speaker 17: Q four. We're a couple of weeks into the quarter,
• 51:11
  Speaker 17: and as I said on the earnings call, really good
• 51:14
  Speaker 17: start to Q four as well. And you know, seasonality
• 51:17
  Speaker 17: is a bit above in Q four historical levels. We
• 51:20
  Speaker 17: also have things like Windows ten end of service coming
• 51:23
  Speaker 17: from Microsoft. You know, Microsoft's about to release their copilot products.
• 51:28
  Speaker 11: But I'd say the sizzle in the.
• 51:30
  Speaker 17: Marketplace is around this AIPC broad new use cases for
• 51:35
  Speaker 17: the PC, and I've compared it to the Centrino moment
• 51:38
  Speaker 17: of twenty years ago when Centrino really ushered Wi Fi
• 51:42
  Speaker 17: at scale into the industry, and we think that's exactly
• 51:45
  Speaker 17: what's going to happen with the AIPC. It will be
• 51:47
  Speaker 17: a driver of new applications and use cases for the
• 51:51
  Speaker 17: PC and bringing a bit more excitement, a bit acceleration,
• 51:54
  Speaker 17: more users coming into the marketplace because it's going to
• 51:57
  Speaker 17: give significant new capabilities to PE users.
• 52:01
  Speaker 18: Is that what gives you a gross margin level of
• 52:02
  Speaker 18: sixty percent? Again, is that where the confidence comes from.
• 52:06
  Speaker 17: Well, to get our overall gross margins up above sixty percent,
• 52:09
  Speaker 17: I need the whole business to improve, Carolyn. Obviously we're
• 52:13
  Speaker 17: making good progress in the PC, you know, I also
• 52:16
  Speaker 17: need to improve my factory network.
• 52:18
  Speaker 11: And as we get back to leadership.
• 52:20
  Speaker 17: We finished this super aggressive five nodes in four years.
• 52:24
  Speaker 11: You know, I'm churning through.
• 52:25
  Speaker 17: Capital very rapidly to get back to leadership. That's a
• 52:29
  Speaker 17: big factor getting the data center business healthy. Going back
• 52:32
  Speaker 17: to one of your earlier questions, another factor in getting
• 52:35
  Speaker 17: back to.
• 52:35
  Speaker 11: Our margin structures.
• 52:37
  Speaker 17: One of the other things we did this quarter was
• 52:39
  Speaker 17: also have great operational success on our cost saving initiatives,
• 52:43
  Speaker 17: and we said you know, we would result in three
• 52:45
  Speaker 17: billion savings.
• 52:46
  Speaker 11: You know, we've also cleaned up the company.
• 52:48
  Speaker 17: I bexited ten businesses since I've been here, and now
• 52:52
  Speaker 17: we think we're finished with that phase and we just
• 52:53
  Speaker 17: get focused on growing the company again to the future.
• 52:57
  Speaker 17: So part of its growth, part of it's this focus
• 52:59
  Speaker 17: areas across the businesses. Part of it is just increased
• 53:02
  Speaker 17: operational discipline. But this quarter's results were well on our
• 53:05
  Speaker 17: way to accomplishing that.
• 53:07
  Speaker 18: And you talk of operations there and we didn't get
• 53:09
  Speaker 18: time to talk about it, but we know that you
• 53:11
  Speaker 18: do indeed have operations in Israel, and we think of
• 53:14
  Speaker 18: your own employees and your infrastructure there at this time, Pat,
• 53:18
  Speaker 18: So thank you very much for spending some time with
• 53:20
  Speaker 18: us and walking us through your numbers. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger.
• 53:23
  Speaker 6: That you're listening to the tape cansur live program Bloomberg
• 53:27
  Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
• 53:30
  Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app.
• 53:34
  Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
• 53:36
  Speaker 6: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: At Miller Paul Sweeney live here on our Bloomberg Interactive
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Brooker's Studio streaming live on YouTube as well. I want
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: to bring our next guest, Macaz. We've got some supportant
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: stuff to talk about. Barry Ridholts, host of Masters in
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Business on Bloomberg Radio, is also the chief executive officer,
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: a chief investment officer and founder of It's Wealth Management
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: Plus Plus.
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: He's a Jeep driver, which is why I thought we
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: should bring him on because we're going to talk about
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: what I'm driving this week.
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: What are you driving this week?
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: A Jeep Wrangler Rubicon three nine two, which is Does.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: That mean anything to you?
• 54:16
  Speaker 11: Barry?
• 54:17
  Speaker 19: Yeah, I actually have an old twenty thirteen Rubicon, which
• 54:22
  Speaker 19: you know, when the apocalypse comes, that's the car I'll take.
• 54:26
  Speaker 19: Because as amusing as some of the go fast cars
• 54:32
  Speaker 19: that Matt and I both like, the fun thing about
• 54:35
  Speaker 19: the Jeep is it's kind of unstoppable. I mean, it's
• 54:38
  Speaker 19: just really, really fun.
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: It's so much fun to drive.
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: And actually I hadn't driven the Jeep for years and
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: years when I got into the.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: Driver's seat of this beast, and it is those are
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: on YouTube are seeing it right now. It is awesome
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: looking it is.
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I mean, I love the red one that
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: they gave me in the press car. But it has
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: a six point four V eight, the same engine that's
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: in my Challenger, So just mountains of torque and horsepower.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: And when I got in the freeway, I just put
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: the pedal down and I forgot that jeep steering it
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: like you have to turn the steering wheel a few
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: revolutions before the tires no that the car wants to
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: change direction.
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: And it's not a normal car, so it was.
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: A little scary at first, but after a day of
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: getting used to it, I was like, man, this is
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: so much fun to drive. It's a it's a different
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: experience than driving a regular car, just in the way
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: you sit, the way it operates, the way it rolls
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: like it's it's different.
• 55:37
  Speaker 19: Plus plus it's got a drag coefficient of I think
• 55:40
  Speaker 19: a hundred.
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah it's a brick.
• 55:43
  Speaker 19: It's a brick, right, It's it's literally that. So you
• 55:46
  Speaker 19: need four hundred horse powers. And the car that I'm
• 55:49
  Speaker 19: driving now could not be further opposite of the designer. Right.
• 55:55
  Speaker 11: They have the.
• 55:56
  Speaker 19: Nismo Z, which is a little it's the new version
• 56:00
  Speaker 19: of the Z their track Nissan Z their track version
• 56:04
  Speaker 19: of it. With First of all, it's very slippery. It's
• 56:07
  Speaker 19: just a tear drop that slips through the air. And
• 56:11
  Speaker 19: that is the polar opposite when it comes to steering,
• 56:14
  Speaker 19: very little input needed, very precise steering. You used to
• 56:19
  Speaker 19: have to spend multiple six figures to get steering this good.
• 56:24
  Speaker 19: It's shocking how much fun this car is for.
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: How yeah, I shall clarify.
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: So, Barry's also test driving a car this week, and
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: you actually have the pre production version of the Z.
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: I drove the Z.
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: We're showing pictures of the one I drove, which I
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: absolutely fell in love with, although I will say that
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: part of the affair that I had with this little
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: Nissan Z was the manual transmission, Oh yeah, which was
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: so much fun. I mean, I thought it was as
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: good as easily as good as a as a nine
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: on line.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: And by the way, shout out to the courtyard of
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Global headquarters film. It makes a great spot
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: to showcase a car.
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: But Barry, so you're driving the souped up version, it's
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: really a track car, the Nismo version.
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: What do you think of it?
• 57:10
  Speaker 19: Do you like it so about ten years ago, I
• 57:15
  Speaker 19: had the original Nissan three seventy Z and that was kind.
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: Of a GT.
• 57:21
  Speaker 19: It was a stick shift, beautiful car, a little sexier
• 57:25
  Speaker 19: than this version, but it was a GT. It's kind
• 57:28
  Speaker 19: of big, kind of heavy in about three hundred and
• 57:31
  Speaker 19: thirty horse power.
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: This car looks much.
• 57:35
  Speaker 19: Better in person than it does in the photos. It's
• 57:39
  Speaker 19: very purpose built, it's very focused. As much as I
• 57:44
  Speaker 19: prefer a stick shift, this four hundred and twenty horse
• 57:48
  Speaker 19: power version with the nine speed dual clutch transmission. Every
• 57:54
  Speaker 19: time you step on the gas it's like you poked
• 57:57
  Speaker 19: a hive of angry hornets and it it's just a
• 58:02
  Speaker 19: lot of fun and for honestly air for normally this
• 58:06
  Speaker 19: sort of performance. Sixty thousand dollars, you're looking at use
• 58:11
  Speaker 19: cars a new version of this. I actually took the
• 58:14
  Speaker 19: car over to my local detail wrap shop that does
• 58:20
  Speaker 19: you know, does car washes and raps and things like that.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: The PAFs when nuts.
• 58:26
  Speaker 19: They lost their mind. First of all, this is like
• 58:29
  Speaker 19: there are none in the country. I mean, I'm I've
• 58:33
  Speaker 19: been very careful because I don't want to damage the
• 58:36
  Speaker 19: only Nismo Z in the United States. But second, you
• 58:42
  Speaker 19: get up to extra legal speeds quite rapidly, and.
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: So and the sound eggs you on.
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: So I got I drove that for a couple of
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: days before Barry got in it, and I the one
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: thing is the sound makes you want to go faster,
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: no matter how fast you're going.
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: I love the sound of the engine.
• 59:00
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 59:00
  Speaker 19: Yeah, it's angry and it's it urges you to go,
• 59:04
  Speaker 19: and it is you know, when you see the pictures,
• 59:06
  Speaker 19: it kind of looks a little plain, and then you
• 59:08
  Speaker 19: see it in person and it's like, oh, this is
• 59:11
  Speaker 19: really a very handsome car. I found it very planted
• 59:16
  Speaker 19: and very not a punishing rod. Typically a track car,
• 59:21
  Speaker 19: you know, you feel the lines on the highway. This
• 59:25
  Speaker 19: I drove home and bumpered a bumper traffic from New
• 59:27
  Speaker 19: York City for about an hour and a half and
• 59:30
  Speaker 19: it was not uncomfortable. You put it in standard mode,
• 59:34
  Speaker 19: in regular mode and it's sort of sedate, and then
• 59:38
  Speaker 19: you put it into sport or Sport plus and you know,
• 59:40
  Speaker 19: you awaken the demons within. It's a lot of car,
• 59:44
  Speaker 19: and it's a lot of car for the money.
• 59:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: So that so the Nissan Z I think we can
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: agree is a great bargain and I think it's a
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: portie Caman competitor easy even though the engines in the
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: front not in the middle.
• 59:57
  Speaker 19: They they describe it more as a Mustang or a
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 19: narrow Challenger.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: It's a race car.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: It's not a muscle car, you know, and those those
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: I know have evolved into race cars, but they're still
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: mus Camaro certainly still a muscle car very much. But
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: I want to goin out though, Barry that the Jeep,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: on the other hand, it is not a bargain in
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: terms of the price. So the Jeep Wrangler Rubicon three
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: ninety two ninety three thousand dollars to start, that's before
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: a delivery fee.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: That's not a typical Jeep bud.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: It's so expensive.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: And what I wanted to ask you about, Barry, what
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: do you think about this inflation, which, by the way,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: it's not going to turn around, but Jeep, it to
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: me is even it's another level on the kind of
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: a new car price inflation that we've seen. They're trying
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: to do something I feel like from Stilanti's headquarters, they're
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: trying to make Jeep into a luxury brand.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 19: So you know, after the pandemic, when you went out
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 19: and looked at various sports cars, ferraris, Porsches, things like that.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 19: You what you ended up having is used cars were
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 19: going for the same or more than new cars. Very
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 19: much a pandemic related event. But go back to the
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 19: ten to fifteen years before the pandemic.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: You look at a.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 19: Brand new twenty fourteen Jeep Rubicon, you know, gussied up
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 19: about forty grand. You look at a one year old
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 19: Jeep Rubicon about forty grand. So jeeps are notorious for
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 19: holding their value. And this isn't you know you want
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 19: a GT three nine to eleven. They only make so
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 19: many of them. They're cranking out a lot of Jeeps,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 19: and despite that, even before the pandemic, they weren't easy
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 19: to get. There were no discounts to be found. There
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 19: are no bargains in the used car lots of Jeeps.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 19: So we'll see if the new Bronco and some of
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 19: the other competitors are going to take a little a
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 19: little bit of market share away from them, and maybe
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 19: the prices will shift. But that was always shocking my
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 19: twenty thirteen Rubicon. I'm comfortable buying a salvage title. I
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 19: don't recommend people buy a savage title.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: But it was a flood car.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 19: I just replaced all the electronic harnesses and for half
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 19: of what I would normally pay for a used Jeep,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 19: I had got a ten thousand mile Jeep. I mean
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 19: it was orange or it's still orange. I just got
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 19: to get used to that color. But that's the thing
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 19: about Jeep. It's a cult and people love them.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: They love all right, Barry awesome stuff, Barry it Halts,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: host of Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. What in
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: the world is Matt Miller driving?
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: Heat?
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: Drives pretty much anything he wants, Folks, Let's be honest.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: not Falseweny.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.