Latest / Balance of Power / Trump Casts Doubt on New Iran Talks; Michigan Primary Test For Democrats

Transcript

Trump Casts Doubt on New Iran Talks; Michigan Primary Test For Democrats · Balance of Power

0:02
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
0:10
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketas live weekdays at noon
0:14
Speaker 1: and five pm. E's Dern on Apple Cockley and Android
0:17
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
0:20
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
0:25
Speaker 2: Of course, it has been a very busy week here
0:27
Speaker 2: in DC, including this week the funeral of the late
0:30
Speaker 2: Senator Lindsay Graham that happened on Tuesday. Along with it
0:33
Speaker 2: the leaders of many countries around the world. Multiple heads
0:37
Speaker 2: of state were in town for that, and two of
0:39
Speaker 2: them met with President Trump at the White House while
0:42
Speaker 2: they were in town, including the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski, who,
0:46
Speaker 2: while it didn't happen pubably before the camera, said afterward
0:49
Speaker 2: that one of the things he discussed with the President
0:51
Speaker 2: is Ukraine's need for patriot and missile systems interceptors to
0:55
Speaker 2: help them defend against Russian attacks. Of course, while they
0:59
Speaker 2: needs urgently, there was also an ongoing conversation about them
1:03
Speaker 2: being able to build these systems themselves, for licenses to
1:06
Speaker 2: go to Ukraine to produce these in country. We thought
1:09
Speaker 2: that agreement had been made. Trump talked about it at
1:11
Speaker 2: the NATO summit in Turkey just weeks ago, and yet
1:14
Speaker 2: today he suggested at a cabinet meeting at Camp David
1:17
Speaker 2: that that is not in fact a done deal.
1:20
Speaker 3: We have to be very careful about letting somebody build them.
1:25
Speaker 4: You know, it's very important now. We are building many
1:28
Speaker 4: plans now to make those.
1:30
Speaker 5: And the Tomahawk missile is the most incredible thing.
1:34
Speaker 4: You can go into a.
1:35
Speaker 5: Doorway, you can put it through a window of the house.
1:38
Speaker 4: Nobody's ever say anything like it. You have to be
1:40
Speaker 4: very judicious, but you have to.
1:42
Speaker 5: Be very careful.
1:45
Speaker 4: Now we have not agreed to that.
1:48
Speaker 3: We're talking about it, but it's a hard thing to
1:50
Speaker 3: give away that kind of technology.
1:52
Speaker 4: Give that technology, they can somebody turn on you.
1:56
Speaker 5: Important development here.
1:57
Speaker 6: We want to get right to Tyler Kendall ahead of
1:59
Speaker 6: our conversation with General Wesley Clark. Our Washington correspondent is
2:03
Speaker 6: at the White House right now on the north lawn.
2:05
Speaker 5: Tyler, did something.
2:07
Speaker 6: Change here or did we misunderstand this arrangement to begin with.
2:11
Speaker 3: That's an interesting point, Joe, at this point, I think
2:15
Speaker 3: that's one of the questions that we have to posed
2:16
Speaker 3: to the administration, because, as you're both outlining, President Trump
2:20
Speaker 3: did pledge on July eighth that the US would be
2:22
Speaker 3: granting these general licenses to allow Ukraine to build these
2:27
Speaker 3: Patriot missile launchers on their own. In fact, that was
2:30
Speaker 3: considered to be perhaps the most tangible development that we
2:32
Speaker 3: had gotten out of the G twenty summit earlier this
2:36
Speaker 3: month in Turkey. But this comes after Zelinsky was here
2:39
Speaker 3: in Washington meeting with President Trump on Tuesday. In fact,
2:42
Speaker 3: we had reporting that he also met directly with officials
2:44
Speaker 3: from Lockheed Martin about what potential future production would look
2:49
Speaker 3: like with Ukraine coming out and saying it would take
2:50
Speaker 3: probably up to ten to twelve months to get that
2:54
Speaker 3: up and running. Now there's a difference here, as Kaylee outlined,
2:57
Speaker 3: between the linceises to build them on their own and
3:00
Speaker 3: actually getting those weapons immediately as we continue to see
3:04
Speaker 3: these gaps in Ukraine's air defense systems. Though Joe and Kiley,
3:08
Speaker 3: perhaps Ukraine knew that this was coming, because we have
3:11
Speaker 3: new reporting overnight from Bloomberg News that Ukraine is looking
3:14
Speaker 3: to turn to other allies and reach into their stockpiles
3:18
Speaker 3: of Patriot missiles ahead of the winter months when we
3:22
Speaker 3: are expecting there to be an increase in attacks as
3:24
Speaker 3: we start to move out of the summer, and then
3:26
Speaker 3: they would look to replenish those allies back with anything
3:30
Speaker 3: that they are able to procure. We did hear from
3:33
Speaker 3: Poland's officials saying earlier this week, after we saw that
3:37
Speaker 3: Russell Russian projectile land in Polish territory, saying that they
3:42
Speaker 3: would be willing to give Ukraine some Patriot missiles.
3:46
Speaker 2: Well, it sounds Tyler like they're getting all the long
3:49
Speaker 2: work done at the White House while President Trump is
3:51
Speaker 2: not in fact in the residents or in the Oval.
3:53
Speaker 2: He's obviously been dispatched to Camp David, and they're getting
3:56
Speaker 2: the leaf browers fired up in his absence. When we
3:59
Speaker 2: think more of about what we've heard from him at
4:01
Speaker 2: Camp David, though, what we heard in that cabinet meeting,
4:03
Speaker 2: it wasn't just on the subject of Ukraine but Iran
4:05
Speaker 2: as well, suggesting once again that he's losing patients, losing
4:10
Speaker 2: faith in the negotiators. What does that mean for the
4:12
Speaker 2: diplomatic process.
4:14
Speaker 3: Well, Kayley, at this part, we at this point, we
4:16
Speaker 3: heard again that there seems to be these dual tracks.
4:18
Speaker 3: On one hand, he didn't roll out the potential for diplomacy.
4:21
Speaker 3: He gave us a little bit more insight, saying that
4:24
Speaker 3: negotiations were happening at that more senior leadership level. He
4:27
Speaker 3: said that Special on Voye Steve Whitcoff was involved, as
4:29
Speaker 3: well as his son in law Jared Kushner, Secretary of
4:32
Speaker 3: Saint Mark Rubio, and also nodded to the Vice President JD. Vance. Yet,
4:36
Speaker 3: at the same time, he said that we should expect
4:38
Speaker 3: further strikes on Iran to continue, calling them acting in
4:43
Speaker 3: bad faith, saying that they haven't upheld their part of
4:45
Speaker 3: the deal. After we really saw the latest lull in
4:48
Speaker 3: the fighting re escalate earlier this week when Iran issued
4:51
Speaker 3: that surprise attack against US forces. At this point, there
4:54
Speaker 3: has been very little public indication that the sides are
4:56
Speaker 3: getting any closer toward a diplomatic breakthrough. Who considering Iran
5:01
Speaker 3: isn't letting up its leverage when it comes to the
5:02
Speaker 3: Strait of Mu's the biggest point of contention at this moment,
5:06
Speaker 3: as we've seen Iran new overnight turning around at least
5:09
Speaker 3: six vessels that were transiting through the US coordinated route
5:13
Speaker 3: and not that Iranian route that the IRGC is overseeing
5:17
Speaker 3: just further heightening the tensions in the region.
5:21
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall on the north lawn of
5:24
Speaker 2: the White House in North Lawn. That probably is going
5:26
Speaker 2: to have few reliefs scattered on it. Tyler, thank you
5:29
Speaker 2: very much. And as we continue the conversation on both
5:31
Speaker 2: Iran and Ukraine, we turned out to General Weston Clark,
5:34
Speaker 2: who is joining us once again on Bloomberg TV in radio.
5:37
Speaker 2: He's of course retired for star general in the US
5:39
Speaker 2: Army and served as commander of US Southern Command. General,
5:43
Speaker 2: it's great to have you back on balance of power.
5:45
Speaker 2: I'll quote the President from earlier today to you directly.
5:50
Speaker 2: He says, we'll be hitting them very hard, referring to Iran,
5:53
Speaker 2: and at some point they'll say, we just can't take
5:56
Speaker 2: it anymore. What makes them reach that point?
6:02
Speaker 7: You know, most of the experts on the region, and
6:05
Speaker 7: I've been with the region off and on in various
6:09
Speaker 7: roles for twenty five years, most of the people don't
6:15
Speaker 7: believe you're going to get a capitulation from the Iranians.
6:19
Speaker 7: They've taken the punch. The IRGC has survived it. They
6:24
Speaker 7: lost their top leadership, they've still got their missile cities intact.
6:28
Speaker 7: Pickaxe Mountain, which is President's talked about, is intact, and
6:34
Speaker 7: so you could take out oil refineries. Most of their
6:38
Speaker 7: water is not from desalivation. You can tear down some bridges.
6:43
Speaker 7: But if the idea is that you would punish them
6:45
Speaker 7: enough that they would say, oh my gosh, I just
6:48
Speaker 7: can't take one more punch in the nose, most of
6:51
Speaker 7: the people who really understand it say that's not likely
6:54
Speaker 7: to happen, because you're dealing with real zealots. And let
6:58
Speaker 7: me put it this way. Look at what the Ukrainians
7:01
Speaker 7: have taken over the last four and a half years
7:03
Speaker 7: from the Russians, and you would have said, my goodness,
7:06
Speaker 7: how could they stand it? Well? Because for the Iranians,
7:09
Speaker 7: like for the Ukrainians, this is an existential battle. The
7:13
Speaker 7: President announced early on that we were looking at regime change.
7:17
Speaker 7: He's very a couple of times suggested he was going
7:20
Speaker 7: to blow them back to the Stone Age. So they
7:23
Speaker 7: take those comments seriously. They see it as existential. I'm
7:27
Speaker 7: not talking about the Iranian people now, I'm talking about
7:30
Speaker 7: the Irgc. They're hanging on for dear life. And so
7:35
Speaker 7: if you knock out a few more bridges and take
7:37
Speaker 7: out a couple of oil refineries and so forth, and
7:40
Speaker 7: reduce their money flow. Okay, but they think they're winning
7:44
Speaker 7: right now, and they think they're going to continue to
7:48
Speaker 7: hold the straight of war moves. Strike our friends and
7:51
Speaker 7: allies in the Gulf, drive us back out of military
7:54
Speaker 7: positions there and back into the arms of Israel, and
7:58
Speaker 7: then by that time have sufficient missile strength to simply
8:03
Speaker 7: launch a thousand missiles at Israel. Israel expends all it's
8:06
Speaker 7: anti missile ordnance and then that's the end of it.
8:10
Speaker 7: And the longer this goes on, the greater of the
8:14
Speaker 7: support they're getting from China and Russia. So they I
8:18
Speaker 7: don't think you can punch them in the nose and
8:20
Speaker 7: get them to surrender. But we've got to find a
8:24
Speaker 7: better way, I think, General.
8:26
Speaker 5: What do you make of the trip to Camp David today?
8:29
Speaker 6: We carried the president's cabinet meeting, a rare Camp David
8:32
Speaker 6: cabinet meeting, and a rare visit there in general for
8:34
Speaker 6: this president who tends to not go to the top
8:36
Speaker 6: of the mountain very often. But we know that Camp
8:38
Speaker 6: David is typically or has been reserved for delicate conversations,
8:43
Speaker 6: for sensitive negotiations, for deliberations away from the public eye,
8:48
Speaker 6: knowing there was a TV camera there, which was a
8:50
Speaker 6: bit unusual to see today. I wonder if this cabinet
8:53
Speaker 6: meeting took place because the president was there to speak
8:56
Speaker 6: quietly with his top lieutenants. He's got Marco Rubio, Pete,
8:59
Speaker 6: Hegseth others up there with him about next steps and
9:02
Speaker 6: potentially escalating this war.
9:04
Speaker 7: Well, I think the administration. I think the President recognizes
9:08
Speaker 7: he's at a crucial decision point here. He's tried five
9:14
Speaker 7: weeks of air stripes. He's tried to pause and ask
9:17
Speaker 7: for negotiations. Negotiations were undertaken. There was an MoU and
9:23
Speaker 7: it wasn't very well written, and it was violated immediately
9:27
Speaker 7: by the Iranians who didn't open the straight or hoar moves.
9:30
Speaker 7: And then there's been tip for Tata now surprise attacks
9:33
Speaker 7: and response, and I think the administration recognizes this is
9:38
Speaker 7: a fork in the road. If the more you want
9:42
Speaker 7: negotiations with the Iranians, the stronger hand they believe they have,
9:48
Speaker 7: and the worse the outcome of the negotiations will be.
9:51
Speaker 7: So do you continue to be the demandeur of the negotiations,
9:56
Speaker 7: do you apply force? But if you apply force, what
10:00
Speaker 7: targets do you go after? And so there's some speculation
10:05
Speaker 7: that maybe we do one more round of really heavy
10:08
Speaker 7: airstrikes a couple of weeks, take out all the remaining
10:12
Speaker 7: targets that we have in a fourteen thousand target target base, refineries, bridges,
10:18
Speaker 7: everything that we think is significant, probably hit a couple
10:22
Speaker 7: of empty warehouses along the way, and then at that
10:27
Speaker 7: point you're going to have to go in on the ground.
10:32
Speaker 7: At least that's the thinking, and that's one of the
10:35
Speaker 7: strands of thought that's hanging out there. So you're at
10:39
Speaker 7: a real inflection point here, and the question is which
10:43
Speaker 7: way do we go?
10:44
Speaker 5: And if we move.
10:46
Speaker 7: Forward without isolating Iran from reinforcement supplies, technology, targeting, and
10:54
Speaker 7: all the other assistance from Iran, China and some of
10:57
Speaker 7: it coming through Pakistan, we're a long, tough fight.
11:03
Speaker 2: Well, that's incredible to consider as we consider the fight
11:06
Speaker 2: directly between the US and Iran, there's also the questions
11:10
Speaker 2: of the conflicts that have been going on in parallel
11:13
Speaker 2: with it in many ways, including of course with Hesbela
11:16
Speaker 2: between Israel and Hesbela in Lebanon, and then there was
11:18
Speaker 2: the question of Gaza as well. The President announced yesterday
11:23
Speaker 2: General that the Board of Peace has reached an agreement
11:26
Speaker 2: for the complete disarmament of Hamas that the President says,
11:29
Speaker 2: to use his words, will be a monumental step toward
11:32
Speaker 2: lasting peace and security. How much faith would you put
11:36
Speaker 2: in it.
11:38
Speaker 7: Well, this is I think as a triumph of hope
11:41
Speaker 7: over reality. I'd be very surprised if Amas would agree
11:45
Speaker 7: to that, and certainly if they're getting any help from
11:49
Speaker 7: Iran or through Hesbelah, I'd be doubtful if they'd agree
11:53
Speaker 7: with It's been a tremendous, tremendous burden on Israel, not
11:58
Speaker 7: only from the military side, but also from the public
12:01
Speaker 7: relations side and international support side, as Israel has struggled
12:05
Speaker 7: to deal with the terrorist organization. So it'll be in
12:08
Speaker 7: the interest of all the outside actors who are opposed
12:12
Speaker 7: to Israel to tell them Moss, don't disarm. Drag this
12:15
Speaker 7: thing on. Take another month, two months, three months. So
12:20
Speaker 7: the problem with disarmaments is always how do you actually
12:24
Speaker 7: do it and then verify it? Then until you see
12:29
Speaker 7: to find details, you don't know whether it's going to
12:32
Speaker 7: be real or not.
12:34
Speaker 6: I want to ask you about the president's comments today
12:36
Speaker 6: about Ukraine. General We didn't think we'd be talking about this,
12:39
Speaker 6: but he's casting doubt, in fact openly doubting this deal
12:45
Speaker 6: to provide general licenses for Ukraine to build its own
12:49
Speaker 6: Patriot missiles. He said, we have to be very careful
12:52
Speaker 6: about giving out the secrets to those weapons. There's a
12:55
Speaker 6: risk of giving it away and them turning on you.
12:57
Speaker 6: Did you understand that this was a deal in place
13:00
Speaker 6: and without those patriots?
13:02
Speaker 5: What next were Ukraine?
13:06
Speaker 7: President Zelenski has asked for just a few patriots. He
13:09
Speaker 7: said he wants thirty before he gets into the winter,
13:14
Speaker 7: or maybe a little bit more than that.
13:17
Speaker 5: And really we.
13:18
Speaker 7: Have been withholding these because we have a shortfall. So
13:21
Speaker 7: it's natural that we would allow someone else to manufacture. Okay,
13:26
Speaker 7: if you don't trust Ukraine, give it to poland give
13:29
Speaker 7: it to Britain, give it to somebody under the Defense
13:31
Speaker 7: Production Act. The President could have that authority. So and
13:36
Speaker 7: the idea that the Patriots would be turned against us,
13:41
Speaker 7: I'm not sure about that. Actually, it looks like the
13:44
Speaker 7: more effective missile than the Patriot is a French Italian
13:50
Speaker 7: anti aircraft missile. It's been around for a few years,
13:53
Speaker 7: continuously updated. And while some of the Iranian missiles can
13:58
Speaker 7: slip through the Patriots, we think this French Italian missile
14:04
Speaker 7: won't let the steerable Iranian missiles or Russian missiles through,
14:10
Speaker 7: so it might be more effective. And Ukraine is going
14:13
Speaker 7: to develop its own anti aircraft missiles and anti missile
14:16
Speaker 7: missiles very quickly if we don't allow them to do it.
14:20
Speaker 5: They've already got their.
14:21
Speaker 7: Own tea lamb.
14:23
Speaker 5: They've all.
14:25
Speaker 7: Long range air cruise missile they're testing. They're ballistic missiles
14:30
Speaker 7: that would be able to hit Moscow. So let's get
14:33
Speaker 7: real here. We're moving into a situation where we're going
14:37
Speaker 7: to have at least two interlocking and perhaps three interlocking
14:42
Speaker 7: global crises, all with military force in which they're engaged
14:48
Speaker 7: with Iran, bridging between the Middle East and Ukraine, Russia
14:53
Speaker 7: supporting Iran as well as attacking Ukraine, China feeding both
14:59
Speaker 7: Russia and iron.
15:01
Speaker 4: If the United Stage. So this is not a skirmish.
15:05
Speaker 7: This is a real, real serious inflection point in US abroad.
15:11
Speaker 6: Going General Wesley Clark, it's great to have you back,
15:16
Speaker 6: retired four star US Army.
15:18
Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. This is Bloomberg.
15:24
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketsas
15:28
Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn on
15:31
Speaker 1: apple Cock Blay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
15:34
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
15:37
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
15:43
Speaker 2: Time is short. There's only one week left until the
15:46
Speaker 2: Senate leaves for its elongated August recess. That, of course
15:50
Speaker 2: happens every year, and there's a lot that they're trying
15:52
Speaker 2: to get done before they actually break for recess. This
15:55
Speaker 2: time around, it's not clear whether or not that will
15:57
Speaker 2: include confirming Todd blanche to be the next Attorney General
16:00
Speaker 2: of the United States. He, of course, was Deputy AG.
16:02
Speaker 2: He is now Acting AG, and is unclear whether or
16:05
Speaker 2: not he's going to remain in that acting capacity for
16:08
Speaker 2: some time. The President has threatened as of yesterday, to
16:12
Speaker 2: pull his formal nomination and allow him to serve as
16:15
Speaker 2: acting for the time being, or at very least until
16:17
Speaker 2: Senators Cornet and Tillis are out of office. Because they
16:20
Speaker 2: are the ones that are standing in the way here over,
16:23
Speaker 2: specifically the so called Anti Weaponization Fund and the audit
16:27
Speaker 2: immunity deal that was secured for the President in his
16:31
Speaker 2: businesses as part of it. The President seems to double
16:35
Speaker 2: down on that on True Social today and again in
16:37
Speaker 2: the cabinet meeting at Camp David. On True Social, he
16:40
Speaker 2: suggests that the fund needed to go to quote, great
16:42
Speaker 2: American patriots. He says, perhaps there has never been a
16:46
Speaker 2: group of people treated so badly in our nation's history,
16:51
Speaker 2: and that doesn't sit well necessarily with one of the
16:54
Speaker 2: senators in question, Senator Tom tillis reposting that on X
16:58
Speaker 2: to say, the President made it clear today that the
17:00
Speaker 2: so called Anti Weaponization Fund is still alive, which is
17:03
Speaker 2: exactly why we are attempting to formally end it. He says,
17:07
Speaker 2: those who assaulted police officers on January sixth are not
17:11
Speaker 2: great American patriots who are victims of government abuse.
17:14
Speaker 6: Jill, so I guess it's going to be an acting
17:17
Speaker 6: Attorney general for the foreseeable future.
17:20
Speaker 5: They met just yesterday with Todd to be a pretty
17:23
Speaker 5: good meeting, So I don't quite understand where this is going.
17:26
Speaker 2: What's incredible is that Tom tillis consistently says that they've
17:30
Speaker 2: been working with Blanche and that Blanche is not the problem.
17:32
Speaker 2: In his ex post, he says Blanche has been forthright, thoughtful,
17:35
Speaker 2: and patient. It's a shame his confirmation', quoting Senator Tillis
17:38
Speaker 2: directly has hit a snag only because an incompetent personal
17:42
Speaker 2: advisor to the president refuses to amend the bogus settlement.
17:47
Speaker 6: That's always the tack. It's the people around the president
17:49
Speaker 6: when you talk to Tom Tillis. Let's see what our
17:51
Speaker 6: panel thinks. Genie is back with us today. Jeanie Shanzano
17:54
Speaker 6: or Bloomberg politics contributor, Democratic analyst, and democracy visiting fellow
17:58
Speaker 6: at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center, alongside Leslie shed a
18:01
Speaker 6: Republican strategist, President Rising Communications fellow at the Atlantic Council. Leslie,
18:08
Speaker 6: should Todd Blanche get comfortable with this acting title? We
18:12
Speaker 6: heard the President articulate the same spirit of that post
18:16
Speaker 6: in the cabinet meeting today.
18:19
Speaker 5: This is a deal breaker, right, I mean, I think.
18:22
Speaker 8: It's really unfortunate because Todd Blanche is incredibly qualified, he's
18:26
Speaker 8: incredibly experienced.
18:28
Speaker 4: You know, he's been doing the job.
18:30
Speaker 8: He's proven that he will be a fantastic attorney general.
18:33
Speaker 8: So I would really like to see him get fully confirmed.
18:36
Speaker 8: I know that he would too, And you have to
18:38
Speaker 8: keep in mind that there are some limitations that are
18:41
Speaker 8: placed on acting rather than fully confirmed attorney's general. So
18:46
Speaker 8: you know, the quicker that we can get him confirmed,
18:49
Speaker 8: I think the better.
18:52
Speaker 2: Well, so who is it that needs to blink here then, Leslie?
18:55
Speaker 2: Is it Sister Blanche? Is it the White House? Is
18:58
Speaker 2: it these senators?
18:59
Speaker 4: I think that's the great question here, right.
19:02
Speaker 8: Look, President Trump is by far the most popular, most
19:05
Speaker 8: powerful person in the Republican Party, so he has this
19:09
Speaker 8: capability to contact senators and to lobby them hard to
19:14
Speaker 8: find out what it is that he needs to do
19:16
Speaker 8: in order to get his attorney general across the finish line.
19:20
Speaker 8: You know, I think that he's going to be frustrated
19:22
Speaker 8: about having to do this, but at the end of
19:24
Speaker 8: the day, getting Todd Blanche fully confirmed will be a
19:27
Speaker 8: huge victory for the Trump administration, and so I think
19:31
Speaker 8: he should try to work with the Senate to get
19:33
Speaker 8: that done.
19:34
Speaker 6: What's going on here, Genie, is the DOJ aware of
19:38
Speaker 6: the President's feelings on this, because they were said to
19:40
Speaker 6: be making progress.
19:43
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think they are, and I think we should
19:45
Speaker 9: take his step back and look at what is going
19:47
Speaker 9: on here, is that the President is unwilling to allow
19:51
Speaker 9: Todd blanche to put something in writing that he confirmed
19:54
Speaker 9: during his confirmation hearings that this weaponization Fund or anti
19:59
Speaker 9: weaponization Fund as it's called, is in fact dead. And
20:02
Speaker 9: as Tom Tillis said today, the language of the President
20:06
Speaker 9: on truth social this morning in the cabinet meeting today,
20:09
Speaker 9: as he waxed poetical and with great concern over the
20:12
Speaker 9: January sixth people who raided the who raided the Legislature
20:18
Speaker 9: on Capitol Hill on January sixth were convicted, many of
20:21
Speaker 9: them put in jail and then pardoned by the President.
20:23
Speaker 9: He's very concerned that they were maltreated. And yet what
20:28
Speaker 9: is this really about. This is because the President of
20:30
Speaker 9: the United States wants a deal that no other American
20:34
Speaker 9: can ever get, which is immunity from past and future
20:39
Speaker 9: IRS investigation for him and his family. Of course, he
20:43
Speaker 9: already enjoys immunity as president, he wants that for his family.
20:47
Speaker 9: As we sit here recognizing the two hundred and fiftieth
20:50
Speaker 9: anniversary of the United States, I think we should all,
20:52
Speaker 9: remember that this is the stuff of kings and monarchs.
20:56
Speaker 9: It is not the stuff in a democracy of an
20:59
Speaker 9: executive lead. And that's why this corruption is at an
21:03
Speaker 9: extraordinary level. And the idea that he's willing to throw
21:06
Speaker 9: Tod Blanche over the bus is astonishing. And of course
21:10
Speaker 9: his plan to do it in January hinges on a
21:12
Speaker 9: lot of things, including who takes the Senate and who's
21:16
Speaker 9: on the Judiciary Committee come the next Congress. He doesn't
21:20
Speaker 9: know what that's going to look like, and Todd Blanche
21:22
Speaker 9: may end up as acting until the rest of his term.
21:26
Speaker 2: Well, and I guess the question becomes whether or not,
21:30
Speaker 2: if it's not to be Todd Blanche Leslie, any other
21:33
Speaker 2: future nominee is going to have this same problem because
21:36
Speaker 2: what they're trying to extract is not necessarily just a
21:39
Speaker 2: promise from Blanche, It is from the Department of Justice.
21:43
Speaker 2: So anyone taped to run the DOJ, to be the
21:46
Speaker 2: top of the DJ, I would imagine, is going to
21:48
Speaker 2: face the very same thing, if not from Cornin and
21:50
Speaker 2: tillis potentially from Democrats who have the majority, or from
21:54
Speaker 2: other more moderate Republican senators.
21:57
Speaker 8: And I mean that's exactly you're making the exact rise point,
22:00
Speaker 8: and Jennie made the right point too, right, which is,
22:02
Speaker 8: we don't know what the Senate will look like next year.
22:05
Speaker 8: I think Republicans will absolutely retain control of the Senate,
22:08
Speaker 8: but we don't know who will be on Judiciary Committee.
22:11
Speaker 8: We don't know how much we will have control of
22:13
Speaker 8: the Senate. And on top of that, this isn't about Blanche.
22:16
Speaker 8: They've made it clear. It is about this, you know,
22:18
Speaker 8: weaponization fund and the irs issue, and they're going to
22:22
Speaker 8: hold on to that through the end of this Congress.
22:25
Speaker 8: So you know, to me, I think the President is
22:28
Speaker 8: a notoriously good deal maker.
22:29
Speaker 4: He makes deals.
22:31
Speaker 8: I think he should reach out directly, use his considerable
22:34
Speaker 8: sway within the party, figure out what he can do
22:36
Speaker 8: to get them to a yes, and then do it.
22:40
Speaker 6: Interesting to watch this cabinet meeting, Genie, because we saw
22:45
Speaker 6: Jake Clayton in the room. The President's knew DNI, although
22:49
Speaker 6: I guess he's not actually because he's not been sworn in.
22:52
Speaker 3: Right.
22:52
Speaker 5: Bill Poulty was also at the other end of the table.
22:55
Speaker 6: He's got Pulty on the same side of the table
22:58
Speaker 6: as the President of the United States, and it was floated,
23:01
Speaker 6: as we I think discussed yesterday that well, maybe that's
23:04
Speaker 6: one way to unstick this whole thing. President Trump does
23:08
Speaker 6: it again. He puts Bill Pulty in his acting Attorney general.
23:12
Speaker 6: See how bad you want Todd Blanche on a day
23:15
Speaker 6: like that? You see him maneuver like that coming?
23:19
Speaker 9: My goodness, I hope not. And so I guess Bill
23:23
Speaker 9: Poulty will be the person you put in as being
23:26
Speaker 9: so unqualified and objectionable that anybody is better. You know,
23:32
Speaker 9: I can't imagine he goes in as acting Attorney General,
23:35
Speaker 9: but I've seen everything if he does, but we know
23:39
Speaker 9: that he is, reportedly, according it to Alice Politico, wants
23:43
Speaker 9: to stay in the post of acting D and I
23:45
Speaker 9: as long as.
23:45
Speaker 5: Possible, And it looks as.
23:47
Speaker 9: If today that he is. You know, you got to
23:50
Speaker 9: feel a little bit bad for both Jake Clayton sitting
23:52
Speaker 9: there and Todd Blanche. Jake Clayton, who got confirmed and
23:57
Speaker 9: is just waiting to be allowed to take the post
24:00
Speaker 9: and wondering where his predecessor is acting is going to
24:04
Speaker 9: land because he's certainly not going to go very far away.
24:09
Speaker 2: Well, Jake Clayton being confirmed was supposed to be even
24:13
Speaker 2: if I guess there wasn't necessarily the stipulation that he
24:17
Speaker 2: also had to be sworn in and Bill Poulty had
24:19
Speaker 2: to be out, But I guess that's probably what Democrats
24:21
Speaker 2: were hoping to see. Wasn't this supposed to unlock at
24:24
Speaker 2: long last the reauthorization of FISA Section seven oh two, Janie,
24:29
Speaker 2: or we're going to see that before the recess. It
24:32
Speaker 2: doesn't seem so, it doesn't seem like there's really any
24:34
Speaker 2: urgency around it on either side.
24:36
Speaker 9: Frankly, I agree totally with that, Kaylee. I think that
24:40
Speaker 9: there's not a lot of urgency to get PISA done
24:43
Speaker 9: at this point, and I don't see the Senate moving
24:47
Speaker 9: in that direction. I think that was the talking point
24:51
Speaker 9: before Clayton's nomination was confirmed, but since we haven't heard
24:56
Speaker 9: a lot about it, because, of course, the Senate has
24:58
Speaker 9: so much else on on its desk before they go
25:01
Speaker 9: on this recess, much of which involves fighting with the
25:06
Speaker 9: White House, whether it's the Save America Act, whether it's
25:09
Speaker 9: the Tom lanch nomination. You know so much, and of
25:13
Speaker 9: course John Thune at the center of it all. So
25:15
Speaker 9: I think FAIZA, if we get it, I think it's
25:18
Speaker 9: going to probably be after the midterm.
25:22
Speaker 5: I hope it gets done.
25:23
Speaker 9: We need it, particularly at a time when we are
25:25
Speaker 9: at war. But I don't think there's much energy in
25:29
Speaker 9: that direction, at least in the next few hours as
25:32
Speaker 9: we're looking at it now.
25:35
Speaker 6: Leslie, what do you think about this Bill Pulty situation?
25:37
Speaker 6: Typically you're confirmed by the Senate, they swear you in,
25:40
Speaker 6: a couple of hours later, you'll photo op you're on
25:43
Speaker 6: having dinner with.
25:44
Speaker 5: Your new colleagues.
25:46
Speaker 6: Spectacularly bizarre is how Senator Ron Wyden describes the fact
25:50
Speaker 6: that Bill Pulti's hanging on there for longer. Senator Mark
25:55
Speaker 6: Warner called it amazing in a horrible way. It's baffling
26:00
Speaker 6: the president doing here.
26:02
Speaker 8: I mean, I don't think it's really that uncommon to
26:04
Speaker 8: have somebody that's been working in a role to stick
26:06
Speaker 8: around for a week or two and try to help
26:09
Speaker 8: the new incoming person. That's usually a really good way
26:12
Speaker 8: to transition, instead of having one person out the door
26:15
Speaker 8: immediately having him there.
26:17
Speaker 5: Swear in the new guy.
26:18
Speaker 6: Couldn't you pardon you could still swear in the new guy,
26:22
Speaker 6: couldn't you? Though, Yeah, I'm not.
26:25
Speaker 8: Sworn him, manya. It would make sense to go ahead
26:28
Speaker 8: and do that. It could just be perhaps the President
26:30
Speaker 8: is traveling, he wants to be the one to swear
26:32
Speaker 8: him in, he wants to be there. You know, there
26:35
Speaker 8: could be a myriad of reasons as to why they
26:37
Speaker 8: haven't sworn him in yet.
26:38
Speaker 4: I don't think it's nefarious.
26:40
Speaker 8: I think the President is very excited about having Jake
26:42
Speaker 8: Clayton come in. You know, I'm certain that Bill Poulty
26:45
Speaker 8: would love to stay because, look, I can tell you
26:48
Speaker 8: from personal experience, working in foreign policy and national security
26:51
Speaker 8: is really fun, it's really interesting. But I think that
26:54
Speaker 8: we're all ready to get Jake Clayton in there, and
26:56
Speaker 8: having a little bit of a transition will only.
26:59
Speaker 5: Help stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have
27:02
Speaker 5: much more coming up after this.
27:07
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ket
27:10
Speaker 1: Says live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,
27:14
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen
27:17
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us
27:21
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.
27:24
Speaker 2: Tuesday, especially as its primary day across a number of states,
27:27
Speaker 2: but the one we will all be watching is Michigan,
27:30
Speaker 2: where the Democratic Senate primary is hotly contested and could
27:33
Speaker 2: give us the signal as to what direction the party
27:36
Speaker 2: is going. It's, of course, Abduyl said, who's a progressive
27:39
Speaker 2: who the Democratic Socialists are campaigning for, even if he
27:42
Speaker 2: says he's not formerly part of it versus the establishment.
27:46
Speaker 2: Back to Congressman Haley Stevens. The latest poll out from
27:49
Speaker 2: Emerson College has Hailey Stevens down fifteen points to el
27:54
Speaker 2: Sayd at this point, and Emerson's director of polling, Spencer Kimball,
27:58
Speaker 2: is joining us once again on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Spencer,
28:02
Speaker 2: welcome back to Balance of Power. This number raised a
28:05
Speaker 2: lot of eyebrows. A fifteen point gap in a race
28:09
Speaker 2: that a lot of people have said is pretty tight
28:12
Speaker 2: could be a nail bier. So is he just going
28:14
Speaker 2: to run away with this and surprise people.
28:18
Speaker 4: Well, we're going to.
28:18
Speaker 10: See on Tuesday night, Kaylee, if it is going to
28:21
Speaker 10: be a nail bier. But the data suggests that Sayed
28:24
Speaker 10: has been able to build a coalition of younger voters,
28:27
Speaker 10: particularly under fifty, and been able to make inroads with
28:31
Speaker 10: educated voters, and that coalition looks to be a pretty
28:34
Speaker 10: successful recipe here in the Democratic primary.
28:39
Speaker 6: Well, I'll tell you watching these numbers evolve is incredible.
28:42
Speaker 6: The way you present numbers from January, April and July.
28:46
Speaker 6: El Sayed goes sixteen percent up to twenty four percent,
28:50
Speaker 6: now at fifty four percent, and it's been a little
28:54
Speaker 6: bit less optimistic for Haley Stevens.
28:58
Speaker 5: She was in the teams.
28:59
Speaker 6: Back in January thirty nine percent now and I'm sure
29:02
Speaker 6: that you've heard people call this poll an outlier. I
29:05
Speaker 6: was talking to a Democratic campaign operative here in Washington,
29:09
Speaker 6: DC last evening who was apoplectic about this poll. You've
29:12
Speaker 6: probably been hearing from some of them. What has happened
29:16
Speaker 6: in the last month or two to justify this huge
29:20
Speaker 6: increase in support.
29:22
Speaker 10: Well, there was another candidate in the race, Mallory McMorrow,
29:25
Speaker 10: and she was polling pretty well in our numbers in
29:28
Speaker 10: April and she drops out of the race, and the
29:31
Speaker 10: idea there was that her vote would go to one
29:33
Speaker 10: of the two candidates, Stevens or.
29:35
Speaker 5: L sim Now we know it looks like that vote.
29:37
Speaker 4: Has essentially split itself, not.
29:40
Speaker 10: Really coalescing around one of the two candidates. And because
29:43
Speaker 10: of that, Lcien has been able to maintain that edge
29:45
Speaker 10: he's had over Stevens in all of our polling really
29:49
Speaker 10: since April. In January we had Stevens a little bit higher,
29:53
Speaker 10: but she's been struggling in.
29:54
Speaker 4: Our numbers.
29:57
Speaker 2: Well. And of course she is backed by the establishment
30:01
Speaker 2: and has establishment Democrats like the one Joe was speaking
30:04
Speaker 2: with apoplectic because the concern is that she's the one
30:06
Speaker 2: who would be able to meet to beat Mike Rogers
30:09
Speaker 2: in the general and that he would potentially be the
30:13
Speaker 2: victor in the other scenario. And I wonder, Spencer, if
30:16
Speaker 2: that's what your polling bears out.
30:18
Speaker 10: Well, it's interesting you bring that up because we saw
30:20
Speaker 10: that come across the newswire this week, that general election
30:24
Speaker 10: polling that had the two Democrats against Mike Rodgers. What
30:27
Speaker 10: was interesting in there is that they didn't measure the primary,
30:31
Speaker 10: which is this week, and that kind of raised an
30:33
Speaker 10: eyebrow from the Stevens camp that why wouldn't you put
30:35
Speaker 10: out that primary number unless it's not a good number
30:38
Speaker 10: and the better number to look at would be the
30:40
Speaker 10: general election.
30:41
Speaker 4: We see this all the time with viability.
30:43
Speaker 10: We talked about President Trump, is he a viable candidate?
30:46
Speaker 10: Back in sixteen for general elections. It's what the campaigns
30:50
Speaker 10: will use to try to find a message to move
30:52
Speaker 10: the needle in their direction.
30:54
Speaker 4: I'm not sure it's going to be enough here for Stevens.
30:57
Speaker 5: Do you have head to head numbers for a general election.
31:01
Speaker 10: We haven't pulled ahead to that since January, which we
31:04
Speaker 10: had it as a tight race as well with El Sayed.
31:07
Speaker 4: But that's been seven And.
31:11
Speaker 6: If your name is Mike Rodgers, you're just hanging out
31:14
Speaker 6: listening to this interview, enjoying every minute of it.
31:17
Speaker 4: Right Well, I'm not so sure Mike Rodgers has got
31:20
Speaker 4: this thing in the bag.
31:21
Speaker 10: I know the Democrats are fighting right now and it's divisive,
31:24
Speaker 10: but yeah, it's kind of like on the other side
31:26
Speaker 10: in down in Texas the Republicans, you know, with tull Rico.
31:30
Speaker 10: Everybody tries to line up their opponents thinking, oh, maybe
31:34
Speaker 10: Paxton would be easier than corn in here and in Michigan,
31:38
Speaker 10: maybe El Said would be easier than Haley. But at
31:41
Speaker 10: the end of the day, I think after the primaries,
31:43
Speaker 10: the candidates they'll work together. The divisiveness usually, you know,
31:47
Speaker 10: fades away and we'll see a coalition build.
31:50
Speaker 4: So I don't put too much stake into that at
31:52
Speaker 4: this time.
31:54
Speaker 2: Well, as we consider the dynamics for November. Regardless of
31:58
Speaker 2: who wins, how high will the conversion rate b among
32:01
Speaker 2: Democrats if they're preferred candidate and the primary loses to
32:04
Speaker 2: then go out and vote for the person who is
32:07
Speaker 2: victorious in the general or is there a likelihood of
32:10
Speaker 2: lower participation in that scenario.
32:14
Speaker 10: Yeah, that enthusiasm gap is something that we're going to
32:17
Speaker 10: keep an eye on.
32:18
Speaker 4: But it looks like the Democrats are.
32:19
Speaker 10: Really going to rally around whoever the nominees are because
32:22
Speaker 10: they're the party out of power, and generally that's what
32:25
Speaker 10: we see.
32:26
Speaker 4: But don't forget. In twenty two we.
32:27
Speaker 10: Had some races for the Republicans in Pennsylvania, Arizona that
32:33
Speaker 10: ended up not going in their direction because of candidate quality.
32:36
Speaker 10: So we'll see obviously who gets these nominations, But then
32:40
Speaker 10: let's reset the race in September and we'll.
32:44
Speaker 4: Give you some fresh numbers at that point.
32:46
Speaker 6: We'd love to move to South Carolina and the numbers
32:48
Speaker 6: that you have on the special Republican primary for US Senate.
32:53
Speaker 6: This is, of course, the seat that was held by
32:55
Speaker 6: the late Senator Lindsey Graham. Got to be honest here,
32:59
Speaker 6: Spencer Darlene Graham is not first Ralph Norman is at
33:02
Speaker 6: twenty two percent, followed by Graham at nineteen percent, Russell
33:06
Speaker 6: Fry at twelve, Mark Stanford at eleven. Darlene Graham does
33:11
Speaker 6: not have a name recognition issue, right, What does this
33:13
Speaker 6: say about her chances in Ralph Norman's candidacy.
33:17
Speaker 10: I guess some would call it another outlier, but we're
33:20
Speaker 10: just looking at our reality here, and we've done this
33:22
Speaker 10: poll now twice. We did it two weeks ago as
33:25
Speaker 10: a hypothetical, and now that the candidates.
33:27
Speaker 4: Are in there, Remember this race is in a week.
33:30
Speaker 10: South Carolina has a truncated process here where if nobody
33:34
Speaker 10: gets to fifty percent on August eleventh, there's going to
33:37
Speaker 10: be a runoff on August twenty fifth. So this is
33:40
Speaker 10: all happening really fast. And it looks like Lindsey Graham's sister,
33:44
Speaker 10: who is now the Senator, is struggling to get name
33:47
Speaker 10: recognition and viability come the general election. And we saw
33:51
Speaker 10: South Carolina not necessarily line up with the Trump endorsement
33:54
Speaker 10: in the gubernatorial race. We're going to see what happens
33:57
Speaker 10: here in this Senate special election. And in South Carolina,
34:01
Speaker 10: you were talking about the economy. We just looked at
34:04
Speaker 10: those Republican voters, and they're blaming President Trump for the
34:08
Speaker 10: high gas prices, and that's something that the Republicans are
34:11
Speaker 10: going to.
34:11
Speaker 4: Be concerned about comingto these midterms.
34:13
Speaker 10: They're still blaming President Biden for grocery store prices, but
34:17
Speaker 10: those gas prices that are hitting pot you know, the wallets,
34:20
Speaker 10: that might become a bigger issue. So we learned that
34:22
Speaker 10: as well. Out of South Carolina.
34:26
Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned the gubernatorial race, which Ralph Norman of
34:29
Speaker 2: course ran in although he didn't come close to winning it.
34:34
Speaker 2: But how much of his numbers could be carryover from
34:36
Speaker 2: the name recognition that he was already on the ballot, Well, Mark.
34:40
Speaker 4: Lynch was caring. Now you can see he's the fifth
34:42
Speaker 4: guy on the list.
34:43
Speaker 10: He's the one who ran against Graham last time and
34:45
Speaker 10: got twenty eight percent. He's now down to seven percent,
34:49
Speaker 10: so you can see name recognition goes in both directions.
34:52
Speaker 10: But yeah, I do think Norman does benefit from that
34:55
Speaker 10: early stages at this point. But again, it's only a
34:58
Speaker 10: week until you're two until the election. It's going to
35:02
Speaker 10: take a lot of effort to increase name wreck And
35:04
Speaker 10: what's interesting is Graham's sister already has Trump's endorsement. So
35:10
Speaker 10: is Trump going to come to South Carolina. It's going
35:13
Speaker 10: to be really interesting to watch the dynamics of that
35:15
Speaker 10: race play out.
35:17
Speaker 6: You might have seen the memo from Doug Sosnik Spencer
35:21
Speaker 6: pretty interesting. He's predicting a blue wave election, citing the
35:24
Speaker 6: party's over performance in elections over the past year or two,
35:29
Speaker 6: the president's all time low approval numbers, economic dissatisfaction, the
35:34
Speaker 6: war in Iran.
35:36
Speaker 5: Is he on the right track?
35:38
Speaker 10: Yeah? Our national generic ballot test has had the Democrats
35:42
Speaker 10: up by double digits for a few months. That tells
35:45
Speaker 10: me it's kind of baked in at ten eleven point spread,
35:48
Speaker 10: and that's a very large spread when we think about
35:50
Speaker 10: historically where we see these generic ballot test numbers. And
35:54
Speaker 10: that's why the Democrats are a little bullish in Ohio,
35:57
Speaker 10: in Texas and Alaska, because now those numbers get to
36:00
Speaker 10: double digits, States that looked to be out of play
36:03
Speaker 10: come into play, and there you could have that blue
36:05
Speaker 10: tsunami that people are looking for. I think the House's
36:09
Speaker 10: one story. We'll obviously have to wait. As I mentioned,
36:13
Speaker 10: the candidate quality in the Senate is going to play
36:15
Speaker 10: a factor in those races more so than in those
36:18
Speaker 10: house races.
36:22
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
36:25
Speaker 6: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
36:29
Speaker 6: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
36:31
Speaker 6: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at New Time
36:34
Speaker 6: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.