Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Just Baseball | MLB | 9/15/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Just Baseball | MLB | 9/15/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Chest Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in your head Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this mad But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor Your name still means
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Now Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now.
• 0:57
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: fella fights.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Hard But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: On, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports, Tuesday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: September 15th. We went 2-0 on the show yesterday. Got
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit lucky with the Detroit Tigers, although part
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: of that handicap was Toronto had used up a lot
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen, even though their closer was available, and
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: he actually blew the game yesterday. It would have been
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: a loss if we took it first five, but also
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: we're getting destroyed as an underdog. I thought they were
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: a little bit more motivated. They came out with the win.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: It was a close game. I mean, it was a
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: game where it is what it is. I mean, we
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: got a little bit lucky. I mean, it wasn't a
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: definitive winner. I'm not saying they should have lost either,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: but it was just, yeah, it was a close game.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: It is what it is. Easy winner with the NFL game, though,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: on the Kansas City Chiefs. That game, yeah, that game
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: was not even close. I did not expect it to
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: be a massive blowout in favor of the Chiefs, but
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: I thought they were going to win. I liked the play,
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: so that worked out pretty well. Fantasy, I was able
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: to hold off my opponent's surge. I went into Monday
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: night with a 40-point lead and a half-point PPR, and
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: I only won by like four because my opponent had
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker. I'm like, You got to be kidding me, man.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: If I had lost, I would be just outraged right now,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: but luckily I didn't, so I just don't care because
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: I have Derek Henry, so we had the two top
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: running backs in week one going against each other. Whatever.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: We have only baseball today. Hold on. I got to
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: zoom in on these things a little bit. I do
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: not like this baseball board today. I have one play,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: and I don't even know how much I really like this. Yes,
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: fading the public underdog. We're going to do it again next.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Is it the Monday night game or the Sunday? I
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: don't know. I already have my favorite play of the
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: week is another anti-public favorite. You might already be able
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: to guess what it is, but yeah. I mean, do
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: you want me to tell you what it is now?
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: Because I don't know where the number is going to
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: go on that one. I mean, I think the public
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: will probably keep the number. down but it's like it's
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: right on a key number so i don't know you
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: can you can lay it right now if you want
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: with uh that play i'm almost positive i'm gonna have
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: a play on it it is the rams but it
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: might go to seven and a half and there are
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: books also like they will teaser kill so sometimes they
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: bring that number up to like nine nine and a
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: half which obviously you would not want to lay that
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: but it's right on seven right now so i don't
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: know um Do what you want with that info, but
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: hopefully we can make that a play at 7 on
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: the show. All right, we have A's Tampa Bay here.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: Both of these teams were off yesterday. Tampa Bay still
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: hanging on to first place in the AL East. The
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: Yankees won yesterday while Tampa Bay was off. Tampa Bay
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: coming off a sweep of the Astros. Pretty good series there.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Will Tampa take the A's seriously? I don't know, but
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Tampa's staying at home. They're good at home. They're the
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: way better team, so, I mean, Tampa should take win
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: this game. The A's are coming up a big series
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: where they possibly kind of play spoiler against the Mariners.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: Like the Mariners, they might be done, dude. I mean,
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: they just lost the angels last night, even though the
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: angels were in a return home spot. So the A's
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: coming up a big series where they beat their divisional
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: foe there. I'm not so sure that the A's are
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: going to be really stepping it up for Tampa Bay.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: Although Tampa is the first, the number one team in
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: the AL right now. So I don't know. Um, Both bullpens,
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, both bullpens were off yesterday. We know the
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: A's bullpen, they're the worst in baseball. I don't care
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: if they're ranked 29th, they're terrible. The Rays' bullpen's ranked 4th,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: although with an ERA over 4, there's no way I
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: would say they're that good. But obviously they're way better
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: than the A's. The A's are number 10 offensively, Tampa
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: Bay 6th. So these teams could definitely score. Jack Perkins
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: getting the start for the A's here. I keep saying
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: I think he's at least better than what his numbers show.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's obviously not good at home, but he's
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: got a 6.53 ERA, 1.53 whip. Not good, but again,
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: he's not quite as bad on the road. He is
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: on the road here, 5.82 road ERA. He's been somewhat
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: serviceable-ish over his last couple starts. Well, I don't know.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: His last start was okay against Toronto, but he's not
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: allowing a lot of runs, but his walk rate has
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: been pretty high recently, except for that most recent game.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate. His walk rate's not
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: very good. Strikeout rate is also high, though, which is
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: why I keep saying somebody tells me this guy has
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: some talent here because he's able to strike guys out
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: at this rate. He's got a 2.5 strikeout walk ratio, 10.4
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. That's a good number. His numbers against
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, I'm pretty sure, are limited. No, they're not
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: as limited as I thought. Tampa Bay absolutely destroys him.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: In 25 at-bats, they have a 520 batting average. Usually
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: don't see an average like that with a sample size.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: It's not a big sample size, but it's still big
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: enough that these numbers are kind of crazy. 520 average,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: 1356 OPS lot. I did look at all this earlier.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: Two to two strikeout walk ratio. Griffin Jacks looks like
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: he's getting the start for Tampa Bay. So it's Jack
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: versus Jacks here. Jacks has been okay. 3.99 ERA, 1.24 whip.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: He's He doesn't really have extreme splits, so I don't
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: really want to say he's better or worse home road.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, his splits are not very extreme at all.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been striking guys out over his last couple starts.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: Did bounce back with a better start against Atlanta last
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: time out after he was bad against the Mets, though.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: He had had a month off. I think he was injured,
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: so maybe he was just a little bit shaky in
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: his first start back. I guess it's a good sign
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: that he pitched well against Atlanta last time out, though.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is all right. His walk rate is
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: all right. His strikeout rate is pretty good. 3.1 strikeout
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is not bad. 9.3 strikeouts per nine. None
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: of that is really that bad. Jacks, I mean, he
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: is the better pitcher of the two right now, and
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: the A's have not hit him well. They have 11
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him, not a lot. Seven hitters a face,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: and they only have one hit, which is a single
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: from Walton. Six strikeouts, no walks. It's an 0-91 average,
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: 182 OPS. I think Tampa Bay should win this game,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: but do you really want to lay a price like
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: this with them minus 230-something? They have 92% of the tickets,
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: 93% of the cash on them. I mean, if you
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: wanted to lay like a minus 1.5 run line, I mean,
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know. They're at home, so if they're winning,
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: they won't bat in the ninth inning. It's a low total, 7.5, 8.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: Money coming in on the over, though. I mean, that
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: total does seem kind of low for this type of
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup. But teams that have been off, sometimes the
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: hitting is a little bit cooled off. Bullpens are rested,
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: although the A's bullpen doesn't really matter if they're rested
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: or not because they suck. But, yeah, I pretty much
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: have nothing on that game. I think Tampa wins, but
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: the price on it is pretty bad, and there's no
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: real situation to really dig into there. White Sox at Cleveland,
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: they played yesterday. The White Sox got back on track
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: with a win. 7-3 yesterday. Cleveland is one and a
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: half games back right now. So Cleveland, they're going to
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: have to up the intensity here in this game. Maybe
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: we'll be a little bit more motivated. Both teams are
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: going to be motivated because this is a big series
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: that could determine the winner of this division. Cleveland used
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: four relief pitchers yesterday. White Sox used three. Not a
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: ton of usage difference there. Cleveland is number 11 in bullpen.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen's been pretty good recently. The White Sox Their
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: bullpen ERA is pretty good as well, actually. So these
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: are both reasonably good bullpens. Cleveland is a bad offense.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: They're number 29. The White Sox are number 11, tied
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: with Houston, Minnesota, and the Yankees. So, yeah, Cleveland has
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: the worst offense. There's no question about that. Davis Martin
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: getting the start for the White Sox. He was good
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: for basically the first half of the season, and he's
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: definitely fallen off since then. He's got a 4.05 ERA. 1.31
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: whip is not that good. He's also not that good
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: on the road. 4.9 roadie array. He was okay in
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: his last two starts here. I think he was injured
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: or something, and then he came back for his last
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: two starts in September. He's only allowed one run in
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: his last 10 and two-thirds innings. but the White Sox
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: lost both games, and he had a bad strikeout walk ratio,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: four to three. He's just not striking guys out right now.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: So there's something a little bit off about him right now.
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: His team has lost four of his last five starts
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: as well, and eight of the last 10. His hit
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: rate is above one per inning, which is not good.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's all right. His strikeout rate is low,
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: so he's not really striking guys out. 2.7 strikeout walk ratio,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: I guess, is all right because he doesn't really walk
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: that many guys. 7.6 Ks per nine is not really
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: that impressive. He's also not good against Cleveland. In 58 at-bats,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: 397 average, 1,031 OPS, 7-7 strikeout walk ratio. Those are
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: not good numbers. And he will be opposed by Foster Griffin,
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: who Cleveland got at the trade deadline. Had a good season,
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: mostly with Washington. 3.65 ERA, 1.18 whip. He's been a
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: good home pitcher this year. 3.38 home ERA. His first
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: start with Cleveland was bad. Then the rest of the
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: month of August, he was good. September, he's not really
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: been that good. His last start, he got absolutely crushed
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: by Baltimore. So he's not exactly in good form right now.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's gone a little bit up. I don't
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: know how much I want to trust Griffin here after
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: the way that he's pitched. Really, it was just the
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: last start was really bad, though. The prior five starts
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: were all actually not too bad. So maybe I'm overly
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: concerned by that last start. His hit rate's pretty good
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: on the season. His walk rate's not too bad either.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is kind of low, though. He's got
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: a 3.4 strikeout walk ratio still, so he doesn't really
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: walk that many guys. 8.1 strikeout per nine is not
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: really that bad. Griffin, pretty good against the White Sox,
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: and they don't really have much familiarity with them. They
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: have 12 at-bats, one hit, a single from Midroth, however
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: you pronounce his name, 3-1 strikeout walk ratio, 0.83 average,
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: 237 OPS. Only five of their hitters have faced him.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: I think Cleveland is the way to look in this game.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: That's the way that I would play it. Um, probably
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: just the money line. What's the, what's the price on this? Uh,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: they went up from minus one 31 to like minus
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: one 40 something. The money is coming in that way.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: 63% of the tickets, 94% of the cash on them.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: I'm tempted, man. I'm tempted. The money's coming in on
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: the under in this game too. I don't think I
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: would do that. Um, I mean, these pictures don't look
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: like they're in excellent form right now. The total is
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: eight and a half. I mean, I know Martin is not.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I've, I don't have much on the total,
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: but the under would kind of worry me, even though
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's offense really stinks. I guess the problem with playing
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Cleveland here is if you don't play the money line,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: you're going to have to lay like a minus one
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: run line. Can they get that done with their offense?
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess what you're saying, if you lay
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: the minus one run line though, like you're saying Cleveland
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: is going to win. And as long as they win,
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: you won't lose money. I don't know, man. I mean,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: this is probably one of my stronger opinions here, just
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: because the matchup numbers seem to Kind of strongly support it.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I think I'm not going to do it, but yeah,
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: I think Cleveland is the right side in that one.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: All right, Dodgers and Cincinnati. Dodgers did actually cover the
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: run line if you did play that yesterday because that
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: was sort of my recommendation yesterday because I just didn't see...
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: I'm surprised the Dodgers didn't score more runs. It was
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: lower scoring than I thought it would be, 4-1, although
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: Lodolo has not been too bad against them. But Scuba
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: was good again. The thing was that... all of the
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: Scooble wins with the Dodgers. Every single one of them
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: had come by one run. I should have mentioned that yesterday,
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: but yeah, for whatever reason, Dodgers, like that was their
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: thing with Scooble on the mound. The Dodgers were like
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: winning every game by one run, but yesterday they won
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: by three. So they actually covered the run line yesterday.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: And I saw no reason to try to back Cincinnati
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: in that game. It was a bad spot for them
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: in the return home spot. But you know what I
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: always say when that happens, a lot of times that
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: team will bounce back better in the next game. BBB,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: and if the team has a bad performance in the
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: first game back home, a lot of times they'll play better.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: I think Cincinnati will try to play better here, but
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: they're at such a disadvantage here, man. I don't want
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati here. Even if the situation might kind of support it,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: no thank you. Cincinnati has a bad bullpen. They used
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: two guys out of the bullpen yesterday. The Dodgers also
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: only used two. Dodgers, obviously, the better bullpen. They're number 12.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's number 25. The Dodgers are also obviously the better offense.
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: They're number two. Cincinnati's 24th tied with the Mets. Dodgers
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: going with Yamamoto today. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I mean, we know
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: he's good. 2.62 ERA,. 88 whip is very good. He's
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: also better on the road, 1.94 road ERA. Even if
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: this is a pitcher-friendly park, I don't see him pitching
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: poorly here. He did just face the Reds, and he
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: pretty much dominated them in seven innings back in L.A.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: not too long ago. But I don't think this game's
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: going to be that much different here. Yamamoto, I mean,
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: he's got a really low hit rate. He doesn't really
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: walk anybody either. His strikeout rate is almost at 9
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: per 9 as well. 4.4 strikeout walk ratio is quite good. 8.9
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. Again, his strikeout rate has actually gotten
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: lower this year, but his overall numbers are no worse
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: than what they have been. Like, he's still really good.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: And he is good against the Reds. They have 66
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: at-bats against him, a 152 average, 439 OPS, 28 to
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: 5 strikeout walk ratio. So, yeah, I think he should
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: pitch well again here. Cincinnati's going with Rhett Louder, who
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: is not good. 5.81 ERA, 1.53 whip, although he is
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: better at home significantly so. 4.06 home ERA, which is
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: more than three runs better, but I don't think we
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: can trust him here, man. Even though Cincinnati won some
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: of his games in August, he was very mediocre in August,
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: and he's been really bad this month, allowing almost two
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: runs an inning against Milwaukee, and then he faced the
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: Dodgers in L.A. last time out of the Dodgers' They
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: took it to him, man. That was louder against Yamamoto
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: in that game, and the Dodgers won the game 14-1.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to say they're going to do that
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: again here, but I would not want to back Cincinnati here.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: Louder is just in terrible form right now. He's not
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: good against LA either. They only have 17 at-bats against them,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: but their whole lineup has pretty much faced them. 4-12 average,
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: 12-97 OPS, 4-2 strikeout walk ratio. The situation for Cincinnati
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: is not as bad as it was yesterday, but I'm
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: not going to back Cincinnati here. There's just no way.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: Although the money actually is kind of indicating that way
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: because of the price. Dodgers are minus 240-something, but I
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: think they kind of need to be in a game
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: like this. 94% of the tickets, 91% of the cash
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: on the Dodgers. I mean, I guess maybe the realistic
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: price maybe should be like minus 200, but whatever, man. Yeah,
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's not really a playable game, unfortunately. Unfortunately.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: Money is kind of coming in on the under eight
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: and a half as well. I would not want to
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: do that. This might be another game where maybe, you know,
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: just Dodgers run line makes some sense here. I don't
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: think I want to do it, but at least they'll
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: bat in all nine innings. You have an edge everywhere
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: if you play the Dodgers here, except for the situation,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: I guess. But yesterday they had the edge in the
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: situation too. So if I didn't play that game, I'm
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: not going to play this game either. Although louder I
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: think is worse than– than Lodolo, but louder is at
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: least better at home, though, for whatever reason, even though
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: it is a hitter-friendly ballpark. Milwaukee at Pittsburgh, this is
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: another game that looks like kind of a pitching mismatch,
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: but you're going to have to pay for it. Pittsburgh
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: returning home from a road trip, although their entire road
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: trip was in Chicago. They swept the White Sox, and
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: then they won the last game against the Cubs, so
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: possible maybe letdown type of spot, but Pittsburgh's not really
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: going to overlook Milwaukee either, right? Like, Pittsburgh, they're playing
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: out the stretch here, and this is one of the
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: only types of games they'll still get up for. It's
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: a game in their division against one of the division leaders.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: Still a bad spot, though. A return home spot does
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: tend to come with its distractions. Both these teams are
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: off yesterday, I'm pretty sure. I don't think any team
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: has a rest advantage today. I think all the teams
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: that played yesterday are continuing a series that started yesterday,
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: and then the rest of the teams are Teams that
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: were off yesterday that are playing each other. Milwaukee's starting
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: a road trip. They lost a win streak, though, in
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: their last game. They lost a five-game win streak. So
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: sometimes that will hang a team over when they lose
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: a win streak. They'll kind of lose the game again
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: after that. I'm not so sure about that, though, because
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: that was kind of an ugly loss to the Reds.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: It was ugly for us on the show because we
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: had Reds' first five on the show behind Burns, and
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: they did not win in the first five, and they
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: won in the full game. I'm not happy about that.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: I believe they didn't even, yeah, it was a half
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: run run line. They didn't even cover that, but they
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: wound up winning the game. Not happy. But yes, Milwaukee
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: is starting a road trip. Maybe they will be focused. Milwaukee,
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: they do have the better bullpen here. Milwaukee is number
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: eight in bullpen. Pittsburgh is number 19. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: both have good offenses. Milwaukee fourth, Pittsburgh seventh, although Pittsburgh
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: has not been as good. recently, but they are a
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: pretty good offense at home. However, they're going to have
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: to deal with Mizorowski in this one. He's got a 1.95 ERA,.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: 8 whip. Oh my God, his whip went up a
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: little bit. He's slightly worse on the road, 2.39 road ERA,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: as if that's really that bad. He had one bad
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: start on the road recently against the cubs he bounced
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: right back and he beat the cubs right after that
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: in the next start so i think you know his
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: bad starts tend to kind of just be a fluke
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: at this point and i think that's what that was
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: he's still pitching really well i mean he's gonna win
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: the cy young unless something crazy happens Sorry to Garrett,
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: but I don't think Sale's going to be able to
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: do it. Mizurowski has a ridiculously low hit rate. He's
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: almost allowing one hit every two innings, which is almost
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: unheard of. His walk rate's really low as well, and
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is extremely high. His numbers just across
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: the board are insane. 5.8 strikeout walk ratio, 13.2 strikeout
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: per nine, and he doesn't even seem to be tiring, really.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, he had, whatever, nine strikeouts last time out.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: Mizurowski against Pittsburgh is also good. In 46 at-bats, they
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: have no extra base hits against him. 18 strikeouts, 4 walks,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: a 174 average of 414 OPS. So I do not
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: want to fade him in this game. Pittsburgh's going with
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game with Lake Bashar opening the game. He's
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: been okay in that role. I mean, he tends to
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: allow one or fewer runs whenever he goes out there
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: and he does that. He's got pretty good numbers. And
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: I think his numbers against Milwaukee are actually fairly good
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: as well, but he's only going to be out there
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: for one to two innings. So he might go out
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: there and give you a clean couple of innings. There
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: might be an argument to play the under in this game,
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: even though I don't like these bullpen games, but the
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: money seems to actually indicate that way. The total's really low.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: It's seven and a half. I mean, it's going to
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: be low in a Mizorowski game, but you would think
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: when it's a bullpen game on the other side, you
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: would think the total would be like eight or maybe
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: even eight and a half because Pittsburgh's offense is pretty
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: prolific at home. That seven and a half, the odds
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: makers are basically telling you this is going to be
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game here. 67% of tickets, 65% of
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. My best lean in this game,
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: I think would be the under. I really don't want
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: to do it. I mean, I don't like these bullpen
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: games at all. So you could maybe also go with
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: like a, I don't, I don't really want to say
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: a Pittsburgh team total under because Pittsburgh That's usually not
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: something you want to do with Pittsburgh as the home team.
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: But you can't really play Milwaukee at minus 260. I mean,
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: that price is insane. 88% of the tickets, 92% of
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: the cash on Milwaukee. I mean, Milwaukee does have the
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: situational edge in that they're starting a road trip versus
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: a team returning home from one. And they have the
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: better starter on the mound. So, I mean, I guess...
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I mean, I don't like it,
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: but if you want to like Moneyline Parlay these things,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: you could Moneyline Parlay Milwaukee with... I don't really want
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: to stay with Tampa Bay. I don't think I like
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay enough to say that. Maybe Milwaukee with the Dodgers.
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: If you want to Moneyline Parlay those two, I mean,
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. But I think it's going to
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: be kind of popular to do that, though, because it's
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: all baseball today. So those favorite parlays, they're going to
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: be popular, and the books are going to need one
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: of those favorites to lose. to crush those parlays. So
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: it's going to be one of these teams that loses.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: Between Tampa Bay, maybe two of them will lose. Tampa Bay, Dodgers, Milwaukee.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is going to be one of them as well. And, yeah,
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, those are going to be all the favorites
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: that are of that high of a price.
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is the next game against Washington. Washington is staying
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: at home. They did sweep the Angels at home, but
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: they won every game by one run, and the Phillies
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: are obviously not the Angels. They're a better team than
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: the Angels. Phillies just beat the Braves in their last game.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: Both of these teams were off yesterday, by the way.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Philly could be in a little bit of a letdown
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: spot after that win against the Braves. I mean, Philly
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: is pretty much locked into a wildcard spot at this point,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: but they're at least trying to battle for having home
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: advantage in that wildcard game at least. or wildcard series,
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: I guess is what it is now. Philly's going with
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: Christopher Sanchez in this game, so they do have one
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: of their better starters pitching here. 2.79 ERA, 1.21 whip.
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.68 road ERA, though, so he is
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: actually somewhat vulnerable on the road. His road opponent batting
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: average is actually kind of bad, 288, so he's not
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: as good on the road. He did just have a
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: bad home start last time out against Houston. Houston beat
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: him up in his last start, although I did point
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: out Houston had good numbers against him. Overall, his hit
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: rate is actually too high on the season, but the
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: rest of his numbers are pretty good. Sanchez used to
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: be pretty unhittable, but he would walk too many guys.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: I keep pointing that out. He's kind of changed the
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: way that he pitches, I guess, to get his walk
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: rate down. which probably means putting more pitches over the plate,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: but it's made him more hittable. But he still strikes
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: out a lot of guys, and he doesn't walk as
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: many guys now. He's got a five-strikeout walk ratio, which
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: is definitely good. 10.1 strikeout per nine is also one
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: of the— I think that might be his highest he's
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: ever posted. Sanchez against Washington is decent in 97 at-bats.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: 268 average a lot isn't exactly that good, but 656
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: OPS is fairly low, so they don't really hit him
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: for power at least. 24-9 strikeout walk ratio. I don't
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: want to back Sanchez at this price, though. Jackson Kent
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: looks like he's pitching for Washington. Oh, I did forget also, bullpens.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: Neither bullpen is that good. Philly's No. 18, but Washington's worse, No. 26.
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: I think Washington's like a bottom three bullpen, though. They're
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: really bad. Blowing games all over the place. Washington's the
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: better offense, though. They're No. 3, Philadelphia No. 21. Jackson
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: Kent is pitching for Washington. He's young. I mean, he
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: has maybe some upside here, but he's got a 6.59 ERA, 1.83 whip.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: Those are awful numbers. However, he's actually been good at home, 3.27
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: home ERA. Most of his starts have come on the road,
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: and in fact, his best start was at home against Miami,
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: although he walked too many guys in that start. His
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: first start of his major league career was also at home,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: and he was somewhat okay in that start, but he
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: can walk too many guys. The walks are a huge
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: problem for him. His hit rate is also too high,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: over one per inning, but the walk rate is just
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: really bad. 20 and 27 in the third innings, that's
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: not good. And his strikeout rate is okay, but his
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: walk rate is so high that he has a 1.2
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine. That is like, You have a strikeout-walk
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: ratio like that, you're not even going to last in
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: the league. So that needs to be fixed. The walks
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: need to be. 7.6 strikeout per nine is not really
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: that good either. So Kent isn't exactly good. I don't
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: know if he'll ever be, but maybe there is some
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: upside there. He is unfamiliar to Philly, but would I
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: want to back Kent here? No. Like, just because of
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity, I don't think that's going to be enough
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: with the way that he's pitching.
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: So.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know. What do we do with this game? Besides, obviously,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: I'm going to pass on it. Philly's 90% of the tickets,
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: 88% of the cash on them at a minus 220 price. Yeah,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, you can't lay a price like that, in
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: my opinion. Like, I'm never going to do it in
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: any sport. But, you know, it's just, I mean, I
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: guess I shouldn't say that. But, like, in baseball, I'm
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: not going to do it. I mean, at minus 200
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: something price tag, if you really think the team has
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: odds that are better than that to win, then yeah,
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: it does make sense to play the money line, but
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: I'm not in the business of laying money lines like
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: this anyway. Laying 200 to win 100, you know, or
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: more than that. Maybe there'll be like a rare instance
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: where maybe I would do it, but not in baseball.
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: Baseball is just too close of a sport. The total
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: in this game is at eight. The over is public
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: with 88% of the tickets and cash on the over,
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: but I'm kind of thinking the over is what makes
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: the most sense here. Washington plays a lot of over games.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: I know both teams are off yesterday, so the bullpen's arrested.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: The offenses might be a little bit cooled off, but
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Kent is really not pitched well. Sanchez is also not
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: that good on the road, so I don't know. The
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: over may make some sense, although then again, maybe Sanchez
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: will pitch well, and Kent is good at home, so
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: there are arguments for pretty much anything that you could
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: think of in that game, except I don't really see
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: an argument for Washington, but... Yeah, I mean, the argument
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: for Washington, I guess, would just be that the price
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: is too high on Philadelphia. But do I want it?
• 28:23
  Speaker 6: No.
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: No, I don't. Detroit to Toronto. We got Detroit right yesterday. Toronto,
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: they're right in the thick of this wild card race here.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: Fell below 500 with that loss yesterday, though. Detroit, I mean,
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: they're not going to make the playoffs at this point,
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: but I didn't think they were a dead team because
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: they've won at least four games in a row right now.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: So Detroit is trying to win games still, at least,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: and Lucky for us, they tried to win yesterday, and
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: they accomplished that in a close game. They had to
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: use five relief pitchers to do it, including Jansen, their closer.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: And let me see. Toronto, I think Toronto may overall
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen. Toronto limited themselves to three relief
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. They did use Varlin, though. Like I said,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: he is their closer. And he's been pretty good this year. Hitting-wise,
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: Toronto's an ugly team, though. Toronto is 27th in offense.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: Detroit is 17th, tied with the Royals, which doesn't seem
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: that good, but Detroit is the better offense here. Detroit's
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: 15th in bullpen. Toronto's 17th, but Toronto's ERA is a
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: little bit better, and they're a little bit more rested here,
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: so I think Toronto probably has the bullpen edge here. However,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: Toronto's going with a bullpen game, and Detroit's going with...
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: sort of a bullpen-ish game with Drew Anderson as their starter,
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: but they've been letting him kind of go a starter's
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: workload recently. He's got a 3.8 ERA, which also includes
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: his bullpen appearances this year. His whip isn't that good, though, 1.31.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: He's not as good on the road, either, 4.63 road ERA.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: Hasn't really been that good over his last couple outings,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: even though he didn't allow that many runs both games
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: against Minnesota. But he's been walking too many guys, dude.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: Multiple walks and three straight starts. That doesn't look that
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: good to me, even though he's not really allowing that
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: many runs. So he's not going out there and killing
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: his team. But his team has also lost four of
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: his last five appearances. So they're not exactly playing well
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: when he goes out there. His hit rate is all right.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is not good enough. His strikeout rate
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: is pretty high, though. He's got a 2.6 strikeout walk ratio, though,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: because his walk rate is pretty ugly. 9.7 strikeout per
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: nine is all right. And it's crazy. He hasn't pitched
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: in Major League Baseball since 2021, so I'm wondering if
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: he was one of those guys. Like, a lot of
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: these guys will wind up over in, like, the Japanese
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: professional leagues and stuff. I'm wondering if he was. I
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know much about his background. I
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: can tell you Toronto hasn't hit him well. They're one
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: for 11 lifetime off, and most of their hitters have
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: faced him. one strikeout, no walks, 091 average, 182 OPS.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe Anderson will go out there and limit Toronto's offense.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not convinced because Anderson walks too many guys,
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: but Toronto is a very weak offense. Toronto is going
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: with like a pure bullpen game here with Braden Fisher
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: listed as a starter. He's got okay numbers, but he
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: is literally going like one inning every time he goes
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: out there. So he's a true opener. And then I
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: don't even know what Toronto's doing behind him. It's basically
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: going to be a bullpen game for Toronto here. Fisher
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: has good numbers against Detroit. Another one for 11, but
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: he's only going to be out there for one inning.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: What the hell do we do with this game? I
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: have no clue, to be honest. When I see bullpen
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: versus bullpen, my mind gravitates towards the over, and the
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: money is actually coming in that way. The total is 8.5,
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: 67% of tickets on the under, 93% of the cash
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: on the over. But I don't know if I really
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: trust these offenses enough to get this thing over the total.
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: Pitching staffs might not do too badly here. Toronto has
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: had some successful bullpen games this year. We backed one
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: the other day, which I think was one of the
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: Miles games because they keep winning his games for whatever reason.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: And it was a good spot to play Toronto, so
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: one of the rare bullpen games that I'll make a
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: play on. Yeah, I don't know, man. I think I
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: do kind of lean over in this game just because
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: I just don't trust the pitching enough, but The money's
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: also coming in towards Detroit again here. 68% of the
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: tickets on Toronto. I think everybody just kind of knows
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: Toronto must win, and maybe they should bounce back after yesterday.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: It was a close game yesterday, too. Toronto minus 130-something
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: on the money line here, but Detroit getting the money
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: 50-50 on the cash here. Do what you want with
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: that info. I mean, Toronto has the better record here.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think I would fully trust Toronto laying a
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: price like this at home, which is a similar price
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: to what they were laying yesterday. Their offense is just
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: not good, man. But, of course, if you play the
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: money line, you're just asking them to win the game. And,
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: of course, it's baseball. So even the worst baseball teams
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: are still going to win 40% of their games. You
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? Toronto is close to a 500 team, so.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: They just happen to be in the strongest division in
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: the American League. All right, Baltimore and the Mets. I
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: was correct about Baltimore getting the win yesterday. It was close.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: It was 2-1. The Mets in a return home spot
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: coming off a New York, New York series. Technically, they
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: were already at home, though, because they were in New
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: York already to play the Yankees. But I thought they
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: were in a hangover spot coming off that Yankees series.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: And the Orioles had more to play for because they're
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: still fighting for wild card possibilities here. So Baltimore got
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: the job done yesterday. Baltimore may still have the motivational
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: edge here for that reason because they're playing for a
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: wild card spot. Baltimore used four relief pitchers yesterday. Mets
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen, though. If this thing would load,
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: the Mets used three relief pitchers yesterday, and the Mets
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: are seventh in bullpen. The Orioles are 10th. So neither
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: bullpen is really bad. Neither offense is that good. Baltimore 22nd. Mets,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: as I already mentioned, are tied with the Reds. Shane
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: Boz is getting the start for Baltimore. He's been okay. 4.05 ERA, 1.33 whip.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: Not exactly great. He's similar home and away. His splits
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: aren't really that significant. He's harder to hit on the road,
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: yet his ERA is slightly higher on the road. So
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: I don't know what you really want to do with
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: that info. He gave up five runs last time against Cleveland.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: That's not a great sign, but he still had five strikeouts,
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: no walks in that start. And he was pretty good
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: against the Red Sox in the prior outing. But as
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: I pointed out in that game, the Red Sox do
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: not hit him well. And that wound up being a
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: complete under type of game where that was my lean
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: in that game too, but it was not a play
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: for me. Boz, I mean, he had allowed a few
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: runs and four starts in a row before his last start.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: Allowing that many runs to Cleveland does worry me, but
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: Boz is not really pitching that badly right now. His
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: hit rate is still not great, though, on the season.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is just okay. His strikeout rate is
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: also just okay. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio is okay. Eight
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine, okay. Yeah, I mean, like I said,
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: he's mediocre. The Mets have some interesting numbers against them.
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: They have 28 at-bats, six hitters have faced them. It's
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: not a big sample. They only have a. 214 average
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: against them, but they have an. 853 OPS. They have
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: six walks against them, one strikeout, and two home runs
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: against them. And three of the walks and one home
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: run are all from Soto as well. It's interesting, but
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: I kind of think Boz does have the upper hand
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: in this pitching matchup, though. I think he's better right
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: now than Sean Minaya. Is Minaya getting the start for
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: the Mets here? He's got a 4.79-year rail. Those whip
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: is really similar to Boz's, 1.34. So these pitchers aren't
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: that much worse than one another, but Minaya is definitely
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: not in good form right now. He's allowed four more
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: runs and five starts in a row now. Yeah, that's
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: not good enough. He's been very hittable over that span.
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: His team has lost three of his last four games.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: He had a decent run for a while, but recently
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: he's not pitching well. He's got a high hit rate
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: on the season. His walk rate is not bad, though.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: Strikeout rate also isn't really that bad. Strikeout walk ratio, 3.1.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: That's not too bad. And strikeout per nine, 8.5. But
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: he's very hittable right now, which is not good. Minaya
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: is also not good against Baltimore. They only have 17
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: at-bats here. seven of their hitters have faced them, but
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: they've hit them well. 294 average, 839 OPS, 8-2 strikeout
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. I'm going to lean Baltimore in this one again.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: I think they have the motivation and they have the
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: better pitcher on the mound, and the money is agreeing
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: with this. 61% of the tickets are on the Mets,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: 62% of the cash on Baltimore, and you're getting a
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: motivated Baltimore team with probably the better pitcher on the
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: mound as an underdog here. Maybe I'd go first five Baltimore, though,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: because I think the Mets do have the bullpen advantage here.
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: Baltimore first five, I think, is actually what makes the
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: most sense, although you won't get them at as big
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: of an underdog price, I don't think, but you'll probably
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: still get them as an underdog in the first five.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, 62% of the cash on Baltimore, 61% of
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: the tickets on the Mets. The money is also on
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: the over in this game at over eight and a half.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: I don't have a great feel for that, but I
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: would leave Baltimore here One concern I would have, though,
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: is that the public, you'd think, would be asking, why
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: are the Mets favored here? I'm surprised the public wants
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: to be on the Mets here, because you're looking at Baltimore.
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: They have the pitcher with the better ERA here, I'm
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: pretty sure, and they have the better record, and everybody
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: kind of knows Baltimore is kind of still in the
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: wild card hunt, whereas the Mets are not. So you
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: would think, why would they... Like, the public should be thinking,
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: why are the Mets favored, right? And it does look
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: weird that the Mets are favored. So in a way,
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: it almost looks too easy to play Baltimore as a
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: dog there. But I believe I said the same thing yesterday,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: and I still lean to Baltimore, and I still will
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: do that again in that game. But that game is
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: not a play. Maybe I'm being too selective today.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: But when I went through this board this morning, I
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: really didn't like much of it at all. We have
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: a TBS game between Atlanta and Chicago, the Cubs, in
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: primetime here. Cubs won the game yesterday 7-3. This is
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: not going to be an elite pitching matchup in this game,
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you that. I don't think yesterday's game really
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: was either. Although I think I kind of leaned Atlanta yesterday,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: and that did not happen. Although I believe my better
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: opinion in the game was the over yesterday. I think
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: it did just sneak over the total. The Cubs used
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: two relief pitchers yesterday. I mean, I didn't love the
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: pitching yesterday for either team. Atlanta only used one. They
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: used Smith-Shavar out of the bullpen, so they saved their bullpen.
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is already the better bullpen out of the two.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: They're number three. The Cubs are number 14. Neither bullpen
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: is bad, though. Both teams are very capable offensively, I
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: should say. Cubs are number one. I mean, they've been
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: an elite offense this year, especially in the second half.
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is kind of in the mediocre range right now
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: at 15, although they might be a little bit better
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: than that. Martin Perez getting the start for Atlanta here. Again,
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: this is not an elite pitching matchup in this game either,
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: even though Perez has had a pretty good season. 3.08 ERA, 1.25 whip.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, he continues to... go out there and pitch
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: rather effectively, even though he's kind of a junk pitcher
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: and he's up there in age now, but he's not
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: that good on the road. 4.76 road ERA. Wrigley sometimes
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: not the easiest place to pitch, although based on the
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: total in this game, it doesn't really look like it's
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: a game where the wind is going to have that
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: much of an effect. It looks like kind of a
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: normal total in this game today. So I think it's
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: probably light wind basically in this game. Where is this game? Yeah,
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: here it is. Yeah, the total is eight and a half. Uh,
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: Perez pitched really well last time out against Tampa Bay,
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: shut them out for seven innings. I was surprised by that.
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: I think he had kind of bad numbers against Tampa Bay.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: If I'm not mistaken, he did really well on that
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: start on the, uh, no, it was at home against
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. Um, Wasn't exactly pitching that well in the
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: prior starts. Three of the prior four starts for him
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: were not good, though. So is he coming back into
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: form here? What's the deal? I don't really know exactly.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is pretty good. For whatever reason, he's
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: been hard to hit. He gets a lot of soft contact.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's not really that good, though, and his
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is definitely not good. So the advanced analytics guys, yeah,
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: they hate this. 1.8 strikeout walk ratio, that is not
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: a good ratio at all. 6.7 strikeout per nine. Not
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: really good either. So he's not fooling guys, but he
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: is pretty consistently getting soft contact from them. Perez has
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: also actually been good against the Cubs and 77 at bats.
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: One 95 average allowed five 24 OPS bad strikeout walk
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: numbers though. 15 to 12. Uh, Bregman has nine of
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: the walks though. And Bregman hasn't really exactly hit him
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: that well, but he's, but he's walked a lot against him. Um, Yeah,
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, I don't know what to think
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: about Perez here because he's not as good on the road.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: He is pretty good against Chicago, and it's kind of
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: hard to gauge what his current form is. Kevin Gaussman
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Cubs. I almost said the White Sox,
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. He's on my shit list, man. He's got
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: a 4.6 ERA, 1.29 whip. He hasn't exactly had the
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: best season here. He went from Toronto to the Cubs
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: at the trade deadline. He's been a little bit better
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: as a home pitcher this year. 3.91 home ERA. But
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: I tried to back the under in his last game
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: after he was really good against Milwaukee in the prior start.
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: Then Milwaukee hammered him in the last game, even though
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: he had good numbers against Milwaukee. The under got killed
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: for us in that game. He still had good command
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: numbers in that game, but he was very, very hittable.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: That's kind of a problem, and he hasn't really been
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: that good with the Cubs. He was very mediocre in
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: the month of August, even though, again, he had good
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: command numbers, good strikeout walk ratio, good strikeout rate. Problem
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: was his hit rate was too high. I don't know
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: what's going on with him, man. He's fooling guys, but
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: at the same time, he's allowing too many hits. That's
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: been the case all season. His hit rate's too high,
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: but his strikeout rate is also high, and his walk
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: rate's not really bad either. He's got a 3.7 strikeout
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: walk ratio. That's not bad. And it's been better with
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: the Cubs than it was with Toronto. His strikeout rate's
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: gone up with the Cubs, 10.2 with the Cubs here, 9.3
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: on the season. So, yeah, I do think Gaussman's better
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: than his ERA looks, at the very least. He's also
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: somewhat okay against Atlanta. They have 100 at-bats against them.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: He has a really good command ratio against them, as usual.
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: 22-3 strikeout walk ratio. 240 average against... 712 OPS isn't
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: that good, but it's still below that 750 threshold I
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: look for. So what the hell do we do with
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: this game? I have no clue, man. I mean... Based
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: on the matchup numbers, it looks like it could actually
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: be an under. I don't know if I'd really want
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: to do it. 79% of tickets, 87% of the cash
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: on the over. It is a public over, though. Eight
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: and a half seems like kind of a reasonable number
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: for the total here. Money is also backing Atlanta pretty
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: strongly here in what might be a bounce back spot
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: for them. Atlanta trying to make sure that they secure
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: their division. The Cubs are pretty much locked into a
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: wild card, but they are battling for home field advantage,
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: I think, against Philly right now. Cubs have 66% of
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: the tickets on them, 88% of the cash on Atlanta, though.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Cubs at minus 130-something. Seems like the public feels that
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: the Cubs are going to bounce back and get the win,
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: but the real money is on Atlanta here. Do with
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: that info what you want. I mean, Atlanta... Should have
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge here at least, so I don't necessarily
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: disagree with Atlanta. Home road splits do not favor Perez
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: in this one, though, but the matchup numbers do look
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: a little bit better for him, though. But I don't know.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: My thought in that game is maybe the under might
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: be the better way to play it, but there's no
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: way that I want a piece of that game. Again,
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: I think the strongest opinion I have out of any
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: of these games is Cleveland, out of the games I've
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: talked about so far, I think Cleveland is the best
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: game out of any of them. I don't like any
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: of these other games, really. And some of these games
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: have just huge prices on the favorites. Speaking of which, Yankees-Minnesota.
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: Yankees won easily yesterday, 8-3. That game did go over
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: the total, which I think was one of my leans
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: in that game. I think it was the over. I
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: think that was the way that I said I would
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: play it. A lot of money that I leave on
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: the table, man. But it is the way that it is.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: You can't just play every single game. Minnesota, bad bullpen,
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: and they used five guys out of the bullpen. The
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: Yankees have a clear bullpen advantage here. They only used
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: three bullpen arms yesterday. Yankees are definitely the better bullpen.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: They're number two in the bullpen rankings. Minnesota is number 28.
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're actually the third worst, but they
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: might be like the fourth or fifth worst bullpen players.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: Yankees have started to hit better again. They're ranked 11th,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: tied with White Sox-Astros twins. Oh, twins also ranked 11th,
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: tied with the White Sox, the Astros, and the Yankees.
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: There you go. So both offenses are pretty capable here.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: Max Freed, though, is getting the start for the Yankees here.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: He's been good, 2.73 ERA,. 99 whip. He's been better
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: on the road, too, 2.47 road ERA. Hasn't been going
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: deep into most of his outings, though. I mean, I
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: wonder if they're just kind of trying to keep him
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: fresh for the playoffs at this point, because they're really
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: not having him go deep into his pitch counts recently.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: He's only gone five innings once in his last three appearances,
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't allowed many runs. He's allowed one or
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: fewer runs in every start since he came back from,
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: oh no, except for one start since he came back
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: from injury after he missed like two months of the season.
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: So he's not allowing runs. He's got a very low
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: hit rate. His walk rate is okay. His strikeout rate
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: is Also okay. He's got a three strikeout walk ratio,
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: so he's not exactly a guy that really lights it
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: up strikeout-wise. But he doesn't allow a lot of base runners,
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: that's for sure. 8.5 strikeout per nine. He's very hard
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: to hit, at least. Minnesota does not have good numbers
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: against him. They have 42 at-bats, although only six of
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: their hitters have faced him. 214 average, 552 OPS, 8-3
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Minnesota has done almost nothing against him,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: except Josh Bell actually has good numbers against him, and
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: he has the most sample size. He has half of
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: the at-bats that they have because he was in Freed's
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: division when Freed was on Atlanta and Bell was on Washington.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: Bailey Ober is getting the start for Minnesota. He's okay, 4.28 ERA, 1.25 whip.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: He's better at home, 3.16 home ERA. So he has
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: the better of the home road splits here. His walk
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: rate's gone up recently. He's usually not a guy that
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: walks that many guys, but recently his walk rate's gone up.
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: He hasn't really gone deep into some of his outings
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: recently either. Minnesota's lost his last three starts. That's not
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: exactly good. Two of them were on the road, though.
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: He's got a somewhat okay hit rate. His walk rate
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: is pretty low. Strikeout rate is also low, though. He's
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: not striking out anybody this year. 2.5 strikeout walk ratio
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: is the worst that he's ever posted. He usually has
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: better strikeout numbers than he does this year. His strikeout
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: per nine has definitely dwindled over the last couple of years.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: It's down to 6.5. But Ober is still a decent
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: pitcher at home, and he's actually not bad against the Yankees.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: They have 22 at-bats against him, seven of their hitters
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: to face him, and they only have a 182 average
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: against him, 523 OPS average. 9-2 strikeout walk ratio, two
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: extra base hits, doubles from Judge and Caballero. If I
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: was going to play this game, which I'm not going
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: to recommend, my best lean in this game would be
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: the first five under. Doesn't sound great. The total's around
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: eight or seven and a half, but the odds makers
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: are telling you they think it's going to be a
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: low-scoring game with a number like that. Of course, I
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: would exclude the Minnesota bullpen here because they're ass. But
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: you might be able to find a four on that
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: if you go first five under. So I think that
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: is the approach I would take in this game if
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: I had to play it. Luckily, I don't because I
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: don't really want to do it. 67% of tickets on
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: the under, 69% of the cash on the over. So
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: the money is not agreeing with that, really. That's a
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: full game market, though. That's all I got on that game.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: San Francisco at St.
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: Louis.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: These teams played yesterday.
• 48:53
  Speaker 5: St.
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: Louis got the win 2-1. Low-scoring game yesterday. Quinn Matthews,
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: I think, put together a nice start yesterday.
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: St.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: Louis has a pitcher-friendly ballpark here. Not sure this game
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: is necessarily going to be pitcher-friendly, though. I mean, I
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: just don't think these pitchers pitching today are very good.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: San Francisco used four relief pitchers yesterday. I don't like
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: these bullpens either.
• 49:15
  Speaker 5: St.
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: Louis used three. Neither bullpen has had a great season.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, I think, is probably the slightly better of
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: the two. They're ranked 24th.
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: St.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: Louis is ranked 23rd, but their ERA is. 4 worse.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: So I think San Francisco is the better bullpen here.
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: San Francisco is 19th offensively, St. Louis 26th. These are
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: not good offenses, and that's part of the problem. If
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: you want to go with an over in this game,
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: which may still be an opinion that I have in
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: this game, the offenses struggle here. What just happened? Oh,
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: I went to ESPN Plus or whatever. Watch ESPN.
• 49:52
  Speaker 6: No.
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 49:56
  Speaker 6: No.
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: All right, yes. Blade Tidwell getting the start for San
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: Francisco here. But yeah, I was going to say this
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: is a pitcher-friendly ballpark as well is what I was
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: going to say. Tidwell, I mean, he's been somewhat okay. 4.82 ERA, 1.29 whip.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: I think some of his work was out of the bullpen.
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the road, 3.48 road ERA. He's
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: not exactly in good form right now. 7-7 strike-out walk
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: ratio in the month of September. was allowing a lot
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: of runs in a lot of his recent starts. San
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: Francisco had lost a whole bunch of starts, or at
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: least appearances that he had in a row. They lost
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: every appearance that he had in August. They lost eight
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: appearances in a row, I think, before they finally won
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: a game last time he pitched against St. Louis, by
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: the way. And he did not pitch well in that outing.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is all right. His walk rate is
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: definitely too high. His strikeout rate is okay, but his
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: walk rate's bad. 1.9 strikeout walk ratio, not good. 7.3
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is not great either. Numbers against St. Louis,
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: also not good. In 23 at-bats, they just saw him,
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: and they were able to get to him in that start.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: They have a. 348 average against him, 966 OPS, 3-4
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. So I do not trust Tidwell in
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: this game. I don't really think I trust Payante either
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: in this game. Andre Payante is pitching for St. Louis today. 3.45 ERA, 1.23 whip.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: He's had a decent season, there's no doubt about that.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: He's not as good at home, though. 4.02 home ERA,
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: so for whatever reason, he's worse at home. He's been
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: okay this month, though, and he pitched well against San
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: Francisco in San Fran the last time he pitched, which
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: was not that long ago. But he's not really striking
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: anybody out recently. He had four walks in his prior
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: start in Coors Field, although he only allowed one run there.
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: So his ERA is really good over those two starts
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: in September. So he is pitching okay recently. He's got
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: a reasonably low hit rate here, reasonably low walk rate
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: as well, but also doesn't strike anybody out. 2.3 strikeout
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: walk ratio, not good. 6.3 strikeout per nine is not impressive.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: Numbers against San Francisco are pretty mediocre. He was good
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: against them last time. They have 30 at-bats against them, a.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: 267 average, 646 OPS, 8-2 strikeout walk ratio. I think St.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: Louis may be the lean in this game more so
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: than the total. I think you're getting the pitcher with
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: the better numbers here with Payante, and he's in the
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: slightly better form, and he's a little bit more proven,
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: but you have to lay a minus-one run line with
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: them because they're like minus-160 overall. In this game, San
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: Francisco really getting no respect in the market. 80% of
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: the tickets on St. Louis, 87% of the cash, though.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: Money seems to be coming in that way. I think
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: I would go first five only, though, so I think
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: the way to play this game is to lay the
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: minus half run in the first five with St. Louis,
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: lay the run line, and hope that they're winning by
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: one at the end of five. I think that's the
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: way I would play it, because I think the advantage
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: they have in this game is the starting pitching. I
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: think it gives them the advantage they have here. Other
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: than that, the money is strongly indicating on the over,
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: and I still probably agree with that as well. The
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: total's at 8.5. I think the pitching in this game
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: is just pretty questionable. Plus, if you go full game
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: with it, you get a couple of not-so-good bullpens there.
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: So I think that's the way to play it. Still
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: haven't given up my play. I have one play in
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: these remaining five games here, and it's not a good one.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: I don't even know if I love it, but I'll
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: be right back, and then I'll talk about the My
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: Boston Red Sox was with one of the worst pitchers
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: on the mound.
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: Yep.
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on an 0-7
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days. After tonight, it was
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: off this show. Horrible Sunday.
• 53:48
  Speaker 6: 1-5.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing.
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses. Not a good day at all.
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: 0-4.
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: I just have not had a good season, man, with weekends. Slump.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: new peak, actually. I'm gonna burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore, man. Back with you
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: after the worst day that I could possibly have. Back
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: with you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all. All right. Boston
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: and Texas. These teams were both off yesterday. Texas is
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: returning home from a road trip. So I talk about
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: how that's a negative spot. They were in Seattle and
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: then they were in Arizona, coming back home from that.
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: So it could be a possible distraction. However, facing the
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: Red Sox, probably a series at least you're going to
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: get up for. Also, Texas needs to keep winning because
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: they're right there in the AL West battle and in
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: the wild card race, and the Red Sox are in
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: the second wild card spot still here. So Texas needs
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: the game a little bit more. Red Sox are more
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: solidified in having a wild card spot here. Red Sox
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: are the better bullpen. They're ranked number one. Texas is
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: number 21. Their bullpen's been a massive disappointment this year.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: But they're rested, at least. The Red Sox have been
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: the better offense overall as well. They're number nine. Texas
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: is number 16. Red Sox, like I said, they have
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: their worst pitcher on the mound here, though. I don't
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: even know how this guy still has a job, to
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: be honest. Patrick Sandoval, this guy fucking blows. I hate him. 4.58 ERA, whatever,
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: but 1.76 whip is absolutely abysmal. You cannot remain in
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: the league unless you're maybe on the fucking Rockies. I
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: think the Rockies pitchers pretty much all have a better
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: whip than this. This is so bad. So bad. Sandoval's
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: been a little bit worse on the road, too. 4.74
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: road ERA. He's not pitching well at all. The Red
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: Sox have lost five of his last six outings. I mean,
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: give me a break, man. They won the first five
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: starts that he made, but that was a complete fluke.
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: This guy's an absolute disaster. I don't care if he's
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: only allowed more than four runs once. He fucking sucks.
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: There's nothing to like about this. His hit rate is
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: extremely high. His walk rate's not that good either. His
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate, give him credit for that, I guess. He
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: strikes out more than one guy an inning. All right. 2.1
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio still, which means he's walking way too
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: many guys. 9.3 Ks per 9 is alright, but everything
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: else about this guy blows. His numbers against Texas, though,
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: are actually good, believe it or not. 41 at-bats, 171 average,
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: 475 OPS, 7 of their hitters have faced him. He
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: was on the Angels for a while, so maybe that's
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: where that happened. 13-5 strikeout walk ratio, still that's not
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: a good ratio, but I guess, you know, as far
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: as matchups are concerned, this is not the worst one
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: for Sandoval. At least it's a pitcher-friendly park, and this
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: offense has not done that much against him. Texas has
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: actually not decided on a starter, so I don't really
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: know what the hell's going on with that. It was
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: going to be Cody Bradford, but I don't know if
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: it's actually going to be or not. Bradford, he was
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: good in the past, but he's trying to come back
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: from missing like an entire season or maybe even two
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: with an injury, and 4.72 ERA, 1.57 whip. He's not
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: pitching well this year. He's been slightly better at home,
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: but still he's been very hittable this year. He's not
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: going deep into his outings. Texas has lost his last
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: six starts. So I don't know if he's starting tonight
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: or not, but it's not good for him either. He's
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: got a very high hit rate. His walk rate is good, though.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: He doesn't walk anybody, but he's also not striking out anybody.
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is unbelievably low. He's got a 1.9
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio of like With his extremely low walk rate,
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: it's almost impossible to have a strikeout walk ratio that bad.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: His strikeout per nine is 4.5. I don't know if
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: anybody in the league has a strikeout per nine that low.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: You can't even exist in Major League Baseball with a
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine that low. I don't get it, man.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: And Bradford against the Red Sox, they've actually hit them well.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: They have 14 at-bats against them. Six of their hitters
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: have faced them. And they have a. 357 average and.
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: 786 OPS against him. Three to zero strikeout walk ratio.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: So if it is Bradford in this game, the pitching
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: matchup actually favors the Red Sox. And Texas is returning
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: over a road trip, whereas the Red Sox are starting
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: a road trip. So at least the situation... favors the
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: Red Sox here, but the money's coming in against them.
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: They dropped from minus 130 all the way down to
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: almost a pick-em here, and it looks way too easy
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: to play the Red Sox, even though I think the
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: public knows Texas is in a must-win, but the Red
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: Sox have the better record, so the public's going to
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: come in on them, plus they're the Red Sox. They
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: get more name recognition, bigger market team and whatever. 88%
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: of tickets, 74% of the cash on Boston, so the
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: money's coming in against them, but I would not play–
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to play Texas here. I mean,
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: obviously it wouldn't shock me if the Red Sox lost
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: this game because Sandoval is an absolute disaster. And if
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: it's not Bradford for Texas, I think that's going to
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: help Texas' chances in winning this game if they pitch
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: somebody else here. But we'll see, man. So I don't
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: really have a great read. If it's Sandoval against Bradford,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: then I would have to slightly lean Red Sox. But
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: there's no way I'd really want to do it. And
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: I think the over is still in play in this game.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: The total's at eight. I know I don't love these
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: overs in Texas, but 91% of tickets, 92% of the
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: cash on the over. It is a public over, but
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: Sandoval's a bad pitcher. If it's Sandoval and Bradford, I mean,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: then the over, I think, is in play there. If
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: it's Sandoval against somebody else, then Texas is probably going
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: to start having somewhat of an advantage, at least in
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: the first five. But I still don't want Texas in
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: a return home spot. But if it's one of Texas'
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: better pitchers that winds up pitching here, and if you
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: do actually want to play Texas, I would only do
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: it in the first five. But I'm not going to
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: do any of that. Kansas City at Houston. Houston, they
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: got a win, man. They just got swept by the Rays.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: They're returning home from a road trip, though, and you
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: know what I always say, a lot of times teams
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: don't bounce back when they return home from the road.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: They went to Philly and Tampa, they got swept in Tampa,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: but now back at home, even though their last loss
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: was embarrassing, 14-4. It's still not a good spot when
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: you return home and you're facing a Royals team you're
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: probably not going to pay that much attention to. So
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: I don't love the spot for Houston here. Both of
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: these teams were off yesterday. Kansas City is coming in
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: from losing to the Red Sox. So they're in the
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: middle of a road trip traveling from Boston now down
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: to Houston. Houston has the better bullpen. There's no question
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: about that. Where is Houston at? I'm looking at hitting.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 6: Whoops.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: Houston is number 13 in bullpen. Still not that great, though.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: But the Royals are a really bad bullpen. They're ranked
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: dead last. I think they're the second or third worst bullpen.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: They're really bad. Houston offensively is also the better team.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: They're tied in 11th with all those other teams I've
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: listed out already. And Kansas City is, where are they at?
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: Number 17 tied with Detroit. Detroit. Michael Waka getting the
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: start for Kansas City, though. So this is a pitching
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: matchup of two decent pitchers here, at least. Waka, 3.25 ERA, 1.11 whips.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good this year. He's not as good
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: on the road, though. 3.56 road ERA, still not bad, though.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: Had a six-inning shutout last time out against Arizona at home,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: although he walked too many guys in that start. But
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: the walks haven't been much of an issue for him
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: this year. He's been pretty good pretty much the entire season.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: He's pretty consistent. He's got a low hit rate. Does
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: allow way too many home runs, though. His walk rate's
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: not bad. His strikeout rate is quite low, though, so
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: that's one issue with him is he doesn't strike guys out,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: but he walks so few people that he does have
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: a 3.1 strikeout walk ratio. 7.2 strikeout per nine is
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: not too bad either. I mean, it's not great, but
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, based on his track record, it's actually a
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: little bit better than what he usually posts. Walker, though,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: against Houston.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: Not good numbers. An 87 at-bats, 322 average, 863 OPS allowed,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: 17-7 strikeout walk ratio. None of those numbers are good.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: So even though Houston's in a fade spot and a
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: return home spot, I can't back Walker with numbers like that.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: And I think Hunter Brown is the better of the
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: two pitchers here. He's younger and he has better stuff
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: at least, but he is pretty wild. He's got a 3.52 ERA,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: but 1.3 whip this year. He was better the last
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: couple years, but I think he is kind of turning
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: it around a bit more recently. His ERA at home
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: is a little bit worse here, 3.71. Did give up
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: four runs last time, four earned runs against Philly, but
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: he had seven strikeouts, no walks in that one, so
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: his command numbers have been better. His last three starts,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: he's actually been quite good in that department with a
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: 24-3 strikeout walk ratio. He is pitching well right now,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: and he was pretty good in the month of August,
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: at least not allowing that many runs, although his walk
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: rate was A little bit of an issue, but he's
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: been hard to hit. His walk rate is definitely too high, though,
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is also high, and that's usually
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: what you get out of him. But strikeout walk ratio
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: for him this year has been worse than ever. 2.2,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: so his walk issues are actually worse than they usually are.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: That's been the problem that he's had this year. 9.8
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: strikeout per nine is pretty good, but he's got to
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: get the walks under control. Brown against the Royals. has
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: actually not been good. 57 at-bats, 333 average, 858 OPS,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: 12-3 strikeout log ratio. So I actually kind of like
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: the over in this game, and the money is strongly
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: supporting that. 70% of the tickets on the under, 93%
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over. Total's around 8 here.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, I look at this, on the surface, it
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: looks like it would be an under, because these two
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: pitchers normally are both pretty good. The matchup numbers are bad, though,
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: but one issue I do have with this is that
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: The bullpens are at least resting, and the offenses might
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: cool off a little bit, but... I don't know, man.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm thinking about it right now. Let me
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: see what Action Network has on this. I'm already disagreeing
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: with Action Network on the one play that I have, though, so...
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't really take their numbers to
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: be as indicative as the numbers that I see on
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: this board here. Yeah, the... Action Network's disagreeing with that too. Really?
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: Hmm.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I guess I'll still pass on it,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: but I do like the over in that game. All right.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: Next game is my play. So it's a light Tuesday here,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: but we are going to play the over in this game.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: San Diego, Colorado, even though I know it's a ridiculously
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: high total at 11 and a half, but it's a
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: coarse field game, man. I think the pitching is ugly
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: in this game. I know, I don't think you can
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: find an 11. Obviously, if you see an 11 out there,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: that's obviously what I would prefer. If I do see one,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: I'll update it, but I don't know if we're going
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: to be able to, even though it's 11 and a
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: half with reduced juice here, so I guess there is
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: the possibility of an 11. You'd have to pay some
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: juice for it, but obviously, every odd, actually, let me
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: look right now. Every odd number is key for baseball
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: totals because you have to break a tie, so let
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: me see.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 5: Mmm. Uh, whoops.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at the wrong game here. Hold on. Padres
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: Rockies total. I see an over 11, but it's juiced
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: at minus one 25. I think that's a little bit
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: too pricey. So for now I'm going to leave it
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: like this. Yesterday's game did go over. I said, I
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: liked the over yesterday and it did happen. Um, it
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: landed 15 yesterday. And if you look at what the
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: Rockies have done recently, I mean, look at these games recently, man. Um, Well,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, three of their last five have gone over
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: this number, but none of them have gone below eight.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: And most of those games were on the road. In fact,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: when you go back to their last home games, they
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: had a home series against the Cardinals. Every one of
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: those games went over the total. So they're playing some
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: high-scoring games right now. I think this is going to
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: be another high-scoring game here. The bullpen usage isn't exactly
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: good for either team here. San Diego used four guys yesterday,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: including Miller again. So some of their better relievers might
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: be unavailable here. But I also think the starters are
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: going to get knocked out of this game earlier too.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: Colorado's bullpen is awful anyway, and they used four or
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: whatever relief pitchers yesterday. San Diego is a good bullpen.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: They're number six, and I think they're a top five bullpen.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: But I'm still willing to fade all the rest of
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: the pitching going on in this game here. Colorado number
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: 27 in bullpen. They're not good. They're a good offense.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: They're number five. San Diego number 23, but at least
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: for us, San Diego's been better since the All-Star break.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: And again, we're fading the pitchers here. Walker Bueller is
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: pitching for San Diego. He's not that good. 4.61 ERA, 1.36 whip.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: His ERA on the road is over a run worse, 5.23,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: so he's not good on the road. So we will
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: fade him on the road here. He's not going deep
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: into most of his outings. San Diego's winning a lot
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: of his outings, and he did have a pretty good
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: month of August, but since then... Yeah, I mean, he's
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: looking like he's starting to slip a little bit here.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: His last start was pretty bad against Washington. He really
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: didn't last in that start. And that was at home
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: in San Diego's pitcher-friendly park, so I'm not going to
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: trust him in Coors Field here, even though he's not
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: that home run conducive because he's not really that extreme
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: of a fly ball pitcher at all. But he's still
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: giving up 19 home runs this year, which is not bad.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: That low of a number. He's got a hit rate
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: that's mediocre. His walk rate is somewhat high. His strikeout
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: rate isn't really that good, so those numbers are not
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: very good. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio is at least an improvement.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: over what he did the last couple of years, but
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: still not great. 7.9 strikeout per nine is all right-ish.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I don't think he's in great
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: form here recently. And also, his numbers are bad against Colorado.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: In 37 at-bats,. 324 average,. 916 OPS. 6-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: Tovar does a lot of damage against him in a
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: bigger sample size to some degree. So I'm going to fade.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: Him here, and it was going to be Ryan Feltner
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: pitching for Colorado. I was going to fade him. His
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: numbers are bad against Colorado, but it looks like it's
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: going to be Kyle Freeland coming off the DL here.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: And usually I do like to back pitchers coming off
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: the DL here, but I don't think it matters with Colorado, man.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: If it's Feltner or Freeland, I don't even care. So
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: if you're worried about that and you still want this
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: to count, you can pick Bueller, must start for San Diego,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: but don't pick a starter for Colorado. But it does
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: look like it'll be Freeland here. Freeland has been pretty bad. 6.37 ERA, 1.46 whip,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: even though usually guys are pumped to get back out there.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: Coming off the injured list, how pumped do you think
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: he's going to be? Oh, yay, I get to go
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: pitch for the Rockies again in Coors Field. Yeah, okay.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: Freeland is actually a little bit better at home, believe
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: it or not. 5.75 home ERA. Feltner, by the way,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: is not, if it were to be him, but I
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: just don't even care. I mean, Freeland was not pitching
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: well before he got injured. He hasn't been good on
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: the season. I mean, His hit rate is really high.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: He allows a lot of home runs. He's not that
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: heavy of a fly ball pitcher, but he's still very
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: home run heavy. Doesn't really walk anybody, but he basically
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: just serves up batting practice out there, and his strikeout
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: rate's not very good either. 3.7 strikeout walk ratio is good.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: That's just because he really doesn't walk anybody, but again,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: he just throws every pitcher over the plate, and he
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: gets hit. He's got a 7.5 strikeout per nine, which
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: isn't really that good. Batter versus pitcher. Whoops, I think
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: I did not spell that right. What? What am I
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: looking at here? Oh, whoops, I still spelled that wrong.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: I hate this, dude. When a guy's on the IL
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: or DL or whatever, they just get rid of that tab.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: Why the fuck would they do that? I fucking hate that.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: But Freeland against San Diego, he's not good. They have
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: 165 at-bats against him. Machado in a big sample size
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: does a lot of damage against him. They have a
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: 309 average against them, 840 OPS, 28-7 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: Some of the other big bats in this lineup actually
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: don't do as well against them, but it's just a
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: team effort. They do well as a team against them. Yeah,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: so that's my play for the day over in this
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: game here. 50% of the tickets, 90% of the cash
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: on the over. So the money seems to be indicating
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: on the over. And I think there's public hesitancy with
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: an over like this because 11.5, it's a high number.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: People tend to not really want to do it, and
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: they just shy away. The money's also kind of indicating
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: on Colorado here. San Diego's been hot, though. I believe
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: San Diego won yesterday, right, although they barely did it. Yeah,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: they won 8-7. San Diego's won a bunch of games
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: in a row, and they need to keep winning because
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: they're in that last wild card spot right now. But
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: maybe this is a game where maybe they run out
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: of steam a little bit. I don't know, but I
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: don't think I really want to back Colorado here. But
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: Bueller is not that good. 93% of tickets, 90% of
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: the cash on San Diego. They're like a minus 200
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: favorite here. Money, somewhat backing Colorado. I don't think you
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: could do it, though. I mean, if you're going to
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: take Colorado, I think you should do it in the
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: first five, but I wouldn't even do that. I mean,
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: San Diego still has the better pitcher on the mound,
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: as bad as he is. But, yeah, obviously the way
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: that I'm going with that game is the over. All right,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: let's see here. We have some spam in the chat. Yes, whatever.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Seattle at Anaheim. Anaheim won the game
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: yesterday despite being in the return home spot. Seattle, I mean,
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: they might be fucked, dude. Seattle, they're 11 games below. 500.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: Now they're 4.5 out of the second place in the division.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: They're 5.5 out of the division here. They're not technically dead,
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: but still. Things are not going well for Seattle here, man.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: And they're losing to bad teams. They're losing to the A's.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: They're losing to the Angels. I don't know what's going
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: on here. Angels in a return home spot. But for
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: the Angels, it was Reid Detmers on the mound yesterday,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: and that's why I didn't want to fade Anaheim in
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: the return home spot. I thought it would be an under,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: and that did not happen. But unless maybe did the
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: first five happen? I think I might have said first
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: five because I don't like either bullpen here actually at
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: this point. Let me see. No, no, it did not. God,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: the bullpens actually weren't that bad in the game yesterday. Anyway. Whatever.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: Will Seattle be able to finally get a win here, man?
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: I don't like Seattle's bullpen much. They used three guys yesterday.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: I think they're probably still better than Anaheim's. Anaheim used
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: three as well. Seattle's ranked 20th in bullpen. They've been
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: a big-time disappointment this year in the bullpen. Anaheim is 22nd,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: although they actually have the better ERA. I don't like
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: either bullpen, though. I think we can leave it at that.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: I don't like either offense either. 28th for Seattle, 30th
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: for Anaheim. out of 30, so these are bad, they're
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: not good bullpens either, but they're bad offenses too, Logan
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: Gilbert getting the start for Seattle, he's been one of
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: their best pitchers, 3.72 ERA, 1.05 whip, he's been pretty good,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: and he's been good on the road, a 2.7 road ERA,
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: he bounced back nicely, he had a bad start against
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: the A's a couple starts ago, though he had a
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: ton of strikeouts still, but he continued having a ton
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: of strikeouts, and he pitched a lot better in his
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: last start against Texas, so I think he might be
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: in okay form right now at the very least. He's
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate. His walk rate's okay. His
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is high. Allows too many home runs, but
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: the vast majority of them have come at home, which
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: is still insane to me that he's allowed that many
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: home runs in a pitcher-friendly park in Seattle. It makes
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: no sense, but whatever. He's got a 4.3 strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: which is not as good as what he used to do,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: but he's still pretty good here. 9.8 strikeout per nine,
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: not bad either. Numbers against Anaheim are pretty good, and
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: 36 at-bats, 194 average is very low, but their OPS
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: is a little bit high. It's 737. They have three
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: home runs off him. Mostly it's Trout. Nobody else in
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: this lineup does anything, really, but Trout is 4 for
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: 11 with two home runs, and they have a 9-2
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio against him, but as long as Gilbert
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: can kind of deal with Trout nobody else in this
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: lineup has really done a whole lot against him so
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: I think Gilbert should actually pitch well here and Ryan
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: Johnson is on the other side I think he's not
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: as bad as his numbers look and he's been a
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: bit better recently 5.12 ERA 1.32 whip he's been a
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: little bit better at home 4.62 home ERA he's a
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: young guy too so he might have some talent here
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: he pitched pretty well against the Red Sox last time
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: out and more impressively he was good in Pittsburgh the
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: game before that those are both road starts by the
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: way Um, he's actually allowed, uh, three or fewer earned
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: runs in every outing, uh, for the last month plus
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: at this point, although some of them were shorter outings,
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: but still he is pitching better than you would think recently,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: except that in the month of August, it was a
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: little bit misleading because he had so many walks, but
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: this month his walk rates gone down. So I think
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: Johnson may not be that bad. His hit rate is
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: all right. His walk rate is still too high though.
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: Strikeout rate is still not that good though. Uh, 1.6
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That's still not going to cut it.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: That's bad. 6.7 strikeout per nine, but he does seem
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: to be improving a little bit here. Johnson against Seattle
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: is not too bad, and 22 at-bats, 273 average. Not great,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: but they have not hidden for power. They only have
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: one extra base hit, which is a home run from
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: Cole Young. I'm not even sure who that is, to
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: be honest. 713 OPS, not too bad. I'm thinking under
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: might make the most sense in this one. I mean,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: I don't love these bullpens. 86% of tickets, 90% of
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. It seems like a public
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: over here. Total's not too high at eight. We're looking
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: at two bad offenses. I think we're looking at at least,
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: I would say, actually capable pitchers here. And the money
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: is actually backing the lesser pitcher. 86% of tickets on Seattle.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: Seattle's about minus 170. And 51% of the cash on
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: Anaheim here. So the money... is backing Anaheim. That means
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: that the professionals seem to think Johnson might be able
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: to actually kind of hang in this game here. Some
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: of it is just because of the price and maybe
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: the thinking that Seattle might be a dead team or whatever.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: I don't think I'd want to fade Seattle here. Gilbert
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: is the better of these two pitchers, but the price
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: is kind of ridiculous on Seattle here. I know Anaheim's bad.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: They get no respect in the market. I still think
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: the under is the better way to look at this game, though.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: I think both pitchers might do all right. Maybe a
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: first five under because I don't really like these bullpens.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: So first five under maybe makes the most sense, although
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: obviously that did not work yesterday. But I think the
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: pitching might be a little bit... Well, Johnson is obviously
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: way worse than Detmers, though. Gilbert is better than Cade Anderson,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: who pitched yesterday, so I don't know. Miami and Arizona
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: is the last game. I was correct about Arizona yesterday.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: That almost made the cut for me, but they only
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: won by one, 8-7. Arizona.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: They're fighting for a wild card spot, so Arizona has
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: more motivation here in my opinion. Miami, I think, might
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: be eliminated or close to eliminated now. So Arizona has
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: a little bit more to play for here, and they
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: should have the better pitcher on the mound here as well.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: So Arizona may be the right side again in this game.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: But everybody kind of knows Arizona needs to win, so
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: they're going to be a little bit heavier priced probably
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: for that reason. Arizona used four elite pitchers yesterday. Miami
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: has used a ton over the last couple days. Three
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: days in a row, Miami's had very heavy usage. They
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: used five guys yesterday. so I would not want to
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: deal with their bullpen even though they're ranked 9 they
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: have an ERA over 4 they're not rested at all
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: so I don't like this Miami bullpen Arizona's ranked 5th
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: and they're not as good as that ranking but they're
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: at least in better shape right now than Miami Miami's
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: been the better offense this year at number 8 Arizona's
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: number 20 We have a hitter-friendly park here, though, and
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: Jansen Junk is pitching for Miami. He's not that good. 4.54 ERA, 1.32
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: whip is all right-ish. He's not as good on the road, though, 4.78
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: road ERA. So he pitches better in the pitcher-friendly Miami stadium.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: And he wasn't even good in his last home start.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: He got wrecked by the Mets in that 15-14 game.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: It was Junk against Stock. That was Junk Bonds against Stock.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: That was a bad game for both pitchers there. Junk
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: was awful in that game. He didn't even strike anybody
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: out either. He's not in good form right now. I
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: would not trust him in this game. His hit rate
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: is too high. His walk rate's not too bad, but
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: he also doesn't strike anybody out. He's got a 2.5
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That's not great. Six strikeout per nine,
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: also not very good. Doesn't have much by way of
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: facing Arizona, though. They only have three hitters who have
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: faced him. Six at bats, 333 average. 833 OPS, two
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: to two strikeout walk ratio. So there's not a lot
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: to gauge from those numbers, but I still don't think
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: junk is going to pitch well here. And he's not
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: really much of a mystery. Like he's been in the
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: league for a while. Michael Soraka is getting the start
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: for Arizona. He's been good on the season, but not
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: good recently. 3.53 ERA, 1.16 whip. He is good at home. 2.73
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: home ERA. Uh, I think he was injured or something,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: or maybe they skipped one of his starts. I don't know.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: He was injured for a while, came back and made
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: three starts in August. Hasn't pitched since late August at
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: this point. Wasn't really good in August, so maybe they
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: gave him more rest or something. Came back and pitched
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: okay-ish in Kansas City. They kind of limited his start there, though.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: Maybe he is kind of rounding back into form here, though,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: and at least that was a road start. At least
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: he's at home this time. His hit rate's all right
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: in the season. He really doesn't walk many guys, and
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: he strikes out a decent amount of guys. He's got
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: a 3.8 strikeout walk ratio, 8.6 strikeout per nine. Those
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: numbers are pretty good. Numbers against Miami, though, he's actually
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: not really good against them. I would have thought that
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: Miami would have more guys that have seen him because
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: he was on Atlanta for a while, but they only
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: have three guys who have seen him. And Sandy Alcantara
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: is one of those guys, 0 for 4 with two strikeouts.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: If you take him out of the equation, Miami's two
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: hitters that have faced him, Edwards and Ruiz, are 4
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: for 5 off him. with no strikeouts and no walks.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: So Soraka might not do that well here. It's really
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: hard to say. I think he's better than Junk. So
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: I think if you're looking at the side here, I
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: would still lean Arizona, but you're going to have to
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: lay a minus one run line with them. They're at
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: about minus 150, 79% of tickets, 90% of the cash
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: on them. At least it's a hitter-friendly park. The total's
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: not too high, though, at 8.5. But I think Arizona
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: probably gets the job done in this game with more motivation,
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: better bullpen setup, better starters. So I'd probably lean that way.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: The over, I think, is definitely in consideration here as well.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: So my leans in this game would be towards Arizona
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: and towards the over. 78% of tickets and 90% of
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over 8.5 here. Do what you
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: want with that info. I'm not even sure which one
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: I like better, to be honest. I mean, it's really
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: hard to gauge these matchup numbers, though, because it's so little. Like,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: the sample sizes are so small. And that's it, man.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: That's all I got. Yeah, all baseball today, so we'll
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: be back. There'll be more football coming up. Football not
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: resuming until Thursday, though, and WNBA is also back on Thursday,
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: so isn't that a whole lot of fun? The U.S.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: won the women's World Cup of Basketball, whatever the hell
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: it is. The U.S. beat France in the final. I
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: know that. The U.S. was expected to win. They were
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: a dominant favorite, I think. So, whatever. Go America, I guess.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it, man. The one play today. Oh,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: I left it up. Sorry. San Diego, Colorado, over 11.5
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 2: is my play. Obviously, if you can find an 11
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: at a decent price, that would be more preferable, but
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Learn to Toad on Twitter.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: Learn to Toad on Instagram. Don't like the board today, man,
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: but like, subscribe to the show here. You'll get notified
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: when I go live with all these late night football
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: shows that are happening. Comment, you know, hype it up,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: all that stuff. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. That'll
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: help me out as well. Covered in Uke is my
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: Uke channel, so you can check that out. Patreon.com slash
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: Learn to Toad. If you want more ukulele stuff there,
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: although I apologize for not really paying much attention to it,
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: loser cast every Tuesday night so we have an episode
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: tonight it might be earlier than usual though I don't
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: know the scheduling might change just for tonight but we
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: will see and the New York Giants G-Spot podcast may
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: be starting we don't know although like I said I
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: like the Giants to not win in their game they
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: got another primetime game this week but I like the
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: Rams in that one that's going to do it I
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: appreciate it Dirty Sock and Mr. Spammer in the chat
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out, guys. Peace.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 5: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone Let
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 5: somebody answer, let somebody know You do not have to.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 4: Lose this round alone Hold on, hold.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 5: On, not tonight Not now.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 6: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 6: bad luck fights hard But it don't get the crown Hold.
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: On, hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 3: You're still here now.
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 4: You're still here now.