Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Bitcoin Crashes Below $95K | Is the Bull Market Over? | Simply SatoSHE
Transcript
- 0:00Bitcoin just dipped below 100,000 for the first time in
- 0:04weeks and everyone is saying that the bull market is over.
- 0:09No, to be honest, we've been saying this for like the last
- 0:12two months, but you've got Garrett Soloway saying Bitcoin
- 0:15could be going back to 70K, mainstream media challenging
- 0:19Eric Trump saying how Bitcoin's record performance may be done,
- 0:24and every armchair analyst screaming the top is in.
- 0:32Today I'm going to show you why this might be one of the most
- 0:35bullish setups and one of the biggest bear traps we've seen
- 0:40all cycle. Welcome back to simply Bitcoin,
- 0:43Satoshi. I'm Sophie, and today we're
- 0:46going to talk about what the fuck is going on because I know
- 0:49you're probably panicking, but there's no need.
- 0:52Just check out what Sailor has to say about the price dip
- 0:56today. Michael, given where bitcoins
- 0:58trading right now are you buying?
- 1:01We are buying, we're buying quite a lot actually.
- 1:04And we'll we'll actually report our next buys on Monday morning.
- 1:09I think people will be pleasantly surprised.
- 1:11In fact, we've been accelerating our purchases.
- 1:14Are you? Ever not buying, Michael?
- 1:16No, we're always buying bitcoins.
- 1:18Always a good investment. But no, that's interesting
- 1:22though in terms of buying today at $95,364 versus buying two or
- 1:28three weeks ago, you're saying you're buying it at both.
- 1:30What's if you were looking over the last year sort of at your
- 1:33average, what do you, what do you and do you do you weight the
- 1:35buying based on on trading? We now own nearly 3.1% of the
- 1:40network and we bought it on a blended average about 74,000 a
- 1:44coin. We all want to go to the moon,
- 1:51but if you want to ride the rocket, you got to be prepared
- 1:54to pull the GS. Over five years, bitcoins had
- 1:57like 6 brutal draw downs. If you roll the clock back 13
- 2:02months, we were sitting around 68,000.
- 2:05And then after the Trump election, we had this, this
- 2:08incredible rally from 68 to 106,000 in five weeks.
- 2:13If you go back 14 months, we're about 55,000.
- 2:16And so if you'd said we're going to go from 55,000 to 94,000 and
- 2:2014 months, that would have exceeded any reasonable
- 2:23investors expectations. Over five years, Bitcoins up
- 2:27about 50% a year on average for the five years.
- 2:30Gold and S&P are studying the cost capital to 14%.
- 2:35My company's strategies up 71%, equivalent to NVIDIA.
- 2:40There's no other stock in the S&P that's done any better.
- 2:43So I think the volatility comes with the territory.
- 2:49If you're going to be a Bitcoin investor, you need a four year
- 2:52time horizon and you need to be prepared to handle the
- 2:56volatility in this market. All right, let's start with what
- 2:59actually happened on the chart before we get into the macro
- 3:02Galaxy brain stuff. Over the last 24 hours Bitcoin
- 3:06sliced through that 100K floor, nuked straight down 98 K and
- 3:11kissed the mid 90 KS, printing new 6 month lows.
- 3:16Some exchanges even showed Wix close to 94,000.
- 3:21That wasn't just a gentle correction.
- 3:23OK, that was a full on liquidation cascade.
- 3:27Over $1 billion in leverage positions were wiped out in a
- 3:31single day, roughly half of that on Bitcoin pairs as long as got
- 3:36margin called into oblivion. Think of it like this, the
- 3:40market was leaning way too far in One Direction.
- 3:44Everyone was positioned for moon November rate cuts, 150K
- 3:49straight line up and when the price cracked below that key 98K
- 3:54support it was like kicking the chair from underneath us.
- 3:57Stops got hit, margin calls fired, positions auto sold and
- 4:03that selling triggered even more selling.
- 4:06That's a cascade, and not just derivatives spot.
- 4:09Bitcoin ETFs in the US just logged in their second largest
- 4:13outflow day on record. Nearly $170 million walked out
- 4:18the door on November 13th. Since October 10th, Bitcoin ETFs
- 4:22have seen over $3.4 billion in net outflows.
- 4:27Garrett Soloway, an unsuccessful short trader who has been
- 4:31shorting Bitcoin since 36 K, is now crawling back out to warn
- 4:36that we are headed to 70K again. Check out this clip.
- 4:40The Bitcoin chart right now trading above 60,000, so just a
- 4:45heads up. I always try to be transparent
- 4:47with you guys. I added my last add to my short
- 4:50on Bitcoin just above 60,000, bringing my average to about.
- 4:54I think it's 56,000 four O 5, give or take.
- 4:57Don't quote me on that exact number to the dollar, but that's
- 4:59what I remember it being 56,000 four O 5.
- 5:02We'll see if I get wrecked or not, as some of you guys like to
- 5:06say. Look, I'm sorry I called him an
- 5:08unsuccessful short trader. I meant an unsuccessful
- 5:12technician. This man has been calling for
- 5:14bitcoins death since before the bull market even started.
- 5:18Good news though, Gareth finally cut the man bun.
- 5:21Bad news, he still got wrecked and he's not alone.
- 5:25Holly market is showing a 73% chance that Bitcoin falls below
- 5:3090,000 because apparently the second the number goes down for
- 5:345 minutes, every bear becomes a profit.
- 5:37And that brings us to the real question, why did this move
- 5:40happen now? Is something broken or is this
- 5:44just leverage getting flushed down the toilet?
- 5:46Selling is the most bullish thing in Bitcoin and let me
- 5:49explain why. Every single sold Bitcoin has
- 5:53the same weight as every single other sold Bitcoin.
- 5:55One sold Bitcoin is 1 sold Bitcoin.
- 5:57The difference is we're now seeing it as you said, at 120K
- 6:01versus 10K and yet the market went down.
- 6:04I think the total was 10/9 and 1/2 billion or something.
- 6:07The market went down 3 1/2% and then did a Dalai Lama candle
- 6:10straight back up. When we're measuring sell side,
- 6:14what we're actually measuring is 2 things.
- 6:16Buy side because you need a buyer for every seller.
- 6:19So when you see a lot of sell side, yes, that is the thing
- 6:22that can temper out a bull and slow the market down and top
- 6:25things out. But if it gets absorbed, you're
- 6:28actually also measuring demand. So I will often look at sell
- 6:31side pressure as a proxy for demand.
- 6:34And when I see the market absorb 9 1/2 billion and not go down,
- 6:38guys, we've got imagine who is buying the size and scale of
- 6:42those buyers. And the other thing it's
- 6:44measuring is the rotation of holders guys from 2010, they
- 6:48have done their job. They came in, they supported
- 6:51Bitcoin at its weakest point in time and they huddled 80,000 odd
- 6:55Bitcoin for 14 years. They got Bitcoin to 100 KA 100
- 6:59like 100K was the dream scenario that Oh my God, that's our
- 7:04million people have come in in later cycles.
- 7:06That's the million target for for us.
- 7:08They hit it, they got there, they made it.
- 7:11They can't really make it more like what's the difference
- 7:13between 10 billion and you know, 20 billion?
- 7:16It's like, I'm, I'm in the billion club.
- 7:18It doesn't matter. So for them, they've already
- 7:20made it, but they're rotating those holdings.
- 7:23All right. Think about where you got your
- 7:24coins from. You got your coins because
- 7:26someone else was willing to sell and that's given you an
- 7:29opportunity. Like for me, if, if nobody sold
- 7:32the coins and we went straight to a million and we repriced
- 7:34immediately straight up to the level.
- 7:36And, and actually there's, there's a good analogy here if
- 7:39you look, if you just observe the shit coin world, they're
- 7:42going through a crisis because what they would do is the VCs
- 7:45would bid up the token to massive premiums and then they
- 7:48would list it on Binance and it goes down only forever.
- 7:50And you know what that does? That destroys people's
- 7:52confidence and they don't want to hold the thing, the process
- 7:55of the market actually helping people get ahead.
- 7:58Like if you weren't able to buy your coin to the thousand at
- 8:0110,000, at 20, at 50, then you wouldn't have any coins.
- 8:04It would just go to $1,000,000 and you'd be like, oh, look at
- 8:06all those guys that ever been around since 2011 and they insta
- 8:08got giga rich. That's actually not a healthy
- 8:11thing. The process, right?
- 8:13The process of markets and the process of Bitcoin getting
- 8:17there. And the fact that we don't just
- 8:18teleport to 1,000,000 is actually why Bitcoin is special
- 8:21because it is the journey that we've all been on.
- 8:23And I like to also think about it from a more philosophical
- 8:27standpoint. What is the important part of
- 8:29Bitcoin? We can talk about the consensus
- 8:31rules, we can talk about mining, we can talk about the blocks, we
- 8:33can talk about all that stuff. At the end of the day, it's the
- 8:36UTXO set. It's the journey that that
- 8:38holder base has gone through, the collective intelligence of
- 8:41coins, changing hands, moving between exchanges, going between
- 8:44cold cards and whatever else. And then eventually we get to
- 8:47where we are today, which is after all that proof of work.
- 8:51This is the current standing of that Ledger.
- 8:53And if the all the other pieces broke, proof of work breaks or
- 8:57this breaks or that breaks, moving that UTXO set somewhere
- 9:00that's going to look after it. That's actually what Bitcoin is
- 9:02in my view from a very philosophical standpoint.
- 9:05So the history is what matters, and that's also the only thing
- 9:08you can't replicate. To understand this move, you've
- 9:10got to zoom out from the Bitcoin chart and look at the macro
- 9:13backdrop. The big story is this markets
- 9:16are suddenly feeling less confident that the Federal
- 9:19Reserve is going to cut rates in December.
- 9:21A week ago, markets were pricing in a strong chance of a cut
- 9:25after a string of cautious comments from Fedef and some
- 9:29hotter than expected inflation data.
- 9:31That probability has dropped sharply, and traders are waking
- 9:35up to the idea that higher for longer might actually mean
- 9:39higher for longer. When rate cut hopes evaporate,
- 9:42risk assets get hit. It's not just Bitcoin bleeding
- 9:45here. Tech stocks have rolled over, AI
- 9:48names have cooled off, and you're seeing a broad rotation
- 9:52out of the risk on trade and back into boring things like
- 9:56bonds and money market funds. Remember, at a $2 trillion
- 10:01market cap, Bitcoin is no longer that tiny, uncorrelated rebel
- 10:06asset hiding in the corner. It's plugged into global
- 10:09liquidity. When yields move, when central
- 10:12banks flinch, when macro hedges reposition, Bitcoin catches
- 10:17those flows instantly. Although right now it looks like
- 10:20Bitcoin is catching some strays. But whatever, I digress.
- 10:22Now layer in what happened in October.
- 10:25We already had a historic liquidation event last month.
- 10:28That was the biggest liquidation in the history of crypto like.
- 10:32Bigger than a. Margin call.
- 10:34Yeah, it was like a almost a miniature.
- 10:37Rupture like a tsunami? One of the biggest in bitcoins
- 10:40history, where estimates range from 19 to $30 billion in
- 10:44leverage positions getting vaporized in a single brutal
- 10:48session. We don't talk about that day,
- 10:53but that set the tone. That market was already fragile,
- 10:58jumpy. So Fast forward to this week.
- 11:00Fed doubts spike. ETF's finally see a big outflow.
- 11:04Day traders who were positioned for a clean straight line to 150
- 11:09K realize that maybe, just maybe, they were early and
- 11:13everyone runs for the same exit at the same time.
- 11:20That's how you get a 5 to 7% daily candle on something this
- 11:24big. Here's the key point.
- 11:26Nothing about Bitcoin's code, monetary policy or long term
- 11:30thesis changed this week. What changed was macro
- 11:33expectations and positioning. The selling is about how people
- 11:37were holding Bitcoin with leverage with ETF shares, not
- 11:42about what Bitcoin is. And in every cycle, those two
- 11:46stories diverged, the short term casino and the long term asset.
- 11:51If you said the the current, all assets in the world currently
- 11:57equal about $900 trillion, underneath those assets is about
- 12:03$600 trillion of debt. And if you include all of the
- 12:06liabilities and I'm unfunded liabilities and the 600
- 12:11trillion. And so if that debt went
- 12:13insolvent, all of those assets are worthless, right, because
- 12:17everything would collapse. So people are measuring their
- 12:19assets within a system that that debt is already insolvent and
- 12:24they're pretending that debt is solvent, that debt requires more
- 12:28and more manipulation of money forever, exponentially more
- 12:31manipulation of money so that the assets don't collapse and
- 12:35everything within that system doesn't collapse.
- 12:37So we're at the almost end of days.
- 12:39They could go on a bunch longer, but that system is getting more
- 12:43and more centralized, more and more controlled.
- 12:46And because it has to, we'll go into that afterwards.
- 12:49OK, now let's look under the hood because while price is
- 12:52screaming panic, the on chain supply data is whispering
- 12:56something very different. First, exchange balances.
- 13:00As of this month, the total Bitcoin held on centralized
- 13:03exchanges dropped to around 2.4 million Bitcoin, a multiyear low
- 13:08and roughly a 14% decline from where we started this year.
- 13:13That means fewer coins are sitting in places where they can
- 13:16be market sold with one click. Coins are moving into cold
- 13:19storage, custodians, ETFs, and long term vaults.
- 13:23In the beginning of October, when Bitcoin was ripping to new
- 13:26all time highs around 127,000, the same dynamic was already in
- 13:31play. Exchange balances fell to their
- 13:34lowest levels in about 6 years. Second inactive supply.
- 13:39The amount of Bitcoin that hasn't moved in a year keeps
- 13:42trending up, not down, even with this pullback.
- 13:46Historically every major parabolic run in 20/17/2021 saw
- 13:51inactive supply surge as long term holders just sat on their
- 13:55sacks and refused to sell into fear.
- 13:58Since 2024, that one year plus inactive supply has climbed
- 14:02another about 10% and it's still rising third profitability.
- 14:08Even at 95,000, roughly 70 to 72% of the entire Bitcoin supply
- 14:13is still in profit. That's not what a blow off the
- 14:17top everyone's wrecked scenario looks like.
- 14:20That's what a mid cycle flush looks like, where a lot of long
- 14:23term holders are still massively green and only the latest FOMO
- 14:28buyers and over leveraged traders are really feeling the
- 14:31pain. Basically these people who just
- 14:34got into Bitcoin are paying their dues now.
- 14:36There is one piece of data bears are pointing at.
- 14:39Long term holders have sold around 815,000 Bitcoin over the
- 14:43past month, the largest wave of long term holders selling since
- 14:472024. But here's the nuance nobody on
- 14:50CNBC bothers to explain. In every bull market, long term
- 14:54holders eventually pulse coins back into the market.
- 14:58That's literally how we get to new all time highs.
- 15:00Somebody has to sell to the new buyers at the new price.
- 15:04Given how low exchange balances are, it looks like those coins
- 15:08are being absorbed by stronger hands, ET institutions,
- 15:12sovereigns, corporate treasuries, and hardcore self
- 15:16custody plebs. So when you put all of this
- 15:18together, low exchange supply rising in active supply,
- 15:22majority of coins still in profit, it doesn't really scream
- 15:25end of cycle to me. It screams aggressive repricing
- 15:29in the middle of a likely bullish setup.
- 15:32And while we're talking about the infrastructure behind
- 15:34bitcoins long term strength, the stuff that actually keeps the
- 15:38network secure regardless of the price action, let's shout out
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- 16:49Michael, given where bitcoins trading right now are you
- 16:51buying? We are buying, we're buying
- 16:55quite a lot actually. And we'll we'll actually report
- 16:59our next buys on Monday morning. I think people will be
- 17:02pleasantly surprised. In fact, we've been accelerating
- 17:05our purchases. Are you ever not buying Michael?
- 17:09No, we're always buying. Bitcoin's always a good
- 17:11investment. But no, that's interesting
- 17:14though in terms of buying today at $95,364 versus buying two or
- 17:20three weeks ago, you're saying you're buying it at both.
- 17:22What's if you were looking over the last year sort of at your
- 17:25average, what do you, where you and do you do you weight the
- 17:28buying based on on trading? We now own nearly 3.1% of the
- 17:33network and we bought it on a blended average about 74,000 a
- 17:36coin. The the point that I would make
- 17:39for any investor is if you have money you don't need for four
- 17:43years or longer, and if you don't trust anybody, you want no
- 17:46counterparties, you just want to own a piece of the global
- 17:51digital economy, you buy Bitcoin, it's the commodity.
- 17:55Right now you've got retail panic selling spot, you've got
- 17:58over leveraged traders getting liquidated, and you've got ETF
- 18:02holders rage quitting after a 20% pullback.
- 18:05But on the other side, the players with longtime horizons
- 18:09are buying. Even Eric Trump was just on
- 18:12Bloomberg talking about why he's still bullish on Bitcoin even
- 18:16with the crash. Check out this clip.
- 18:18On this one for you, you know, guess what Bitcoin prices were
- 18:21exactly 2 years ago from today. I'll, I'll tell you because you
- 18:24wouldn't know 36,500 was the cost of a Bitcoin two years ago.
- 18:28We are up 180% in a 24 month period.
- 18:32The, the, the, the spot price of, of, of BTC is probably the
- 18:36number one performing asset, you know, of, of any asset.
- 18:39And, and this is this coming from a guy who believes in hard
- 18:41assets, right? I mean, I run one of the great
- 18:43real estate portfolios anywhere in the world.
- 18:45Cryptocurrency is absolutely on fire.
- 18:48Cryptocurrency is taking on the. World.
- 18:50Well, Bitcoin is up this year by about 5%.
- 18:52The S&P is up 15%. The NASDAQ 100 is up 20%.
- 18:56Gold is up close to. 60% this. Year.
- 18:58No, I'm just. Saying do you want to reverse?
- 19:00Hold on, Carol. Do you want, do you want to
- 19:01reverse that? I mean, do you want to go back
- 19:02two years? Do you want to go back three
- 19:04years? You want to go back five years?
- 19:05You want to go back 10 years? I know, I know how to dice and
- 19:08slice the market. Have gone up on average of about
- 19:1070% a year, year over year for the last 10 year period of time.
- 19:14All I'm saying is if you invested in BTC two years ago is
- 19:17probably the best investment you could have made.
- 19:19If you made invested BTC five years ago, you know you're
- 19:23sitting on infinite amounts of money, right?
- 19:25BTC has been probably the highest performing asset of the
- 19:29last decade right now. Also with BTC comes volatility,
- 19:33with crypto comes volatility. Volatility is our friend.
- 19:36Volatility is something that should be harnessed, right?
- 19:38And, and so I think Bitcoin is going to continue to, to
- 19:41massively over perform the, you know, the markets, of course,
- 19:43you're going to have draw downs, right?
- 19:45I mean, every, every cycle has draw downs.
- 19:46You're seeing you were talking about NVIDIA, you know, in, in,
- 19:50in the intro clip to, to introducing me today and how
- 19:53they're down 4% and it's one largest companies on earth, if
- 19:55not the largest company on Earth, right?
- 19:57I mean, that's down 4%. You're going to have drawdowns
- 19:59and things. That's that's life.
- 20:01But. Look at the historical
- 20:02performance of an of an asset and and and nothing has compared
- 20:05to to what. Bitcoin has It doesn't matter if
- 20:07you're sacking $50 a week, running a family office or part
- 20:12of one of the most famous political families in the world.
- 20:14People become experts in bitcoin's death the second the
- 20:19price dips. People who actually understand
- 20:21the asset, they aren't panicking.
- 20:23Now here's where it gets interesting.
- 20:26A lot of macro analysts, including Mark Moss, believe the
- 20:29Fed may have just triggered the next liquidity crunch.
- 20:32And if that's true, massive liquidity may be about to enter
- 20:37the system. Central banks always choose
- 20:40inflation over deflation. Always protect the financial
- 20:43system. Overpriced ability now Ben
- 20:46Bernanke said it explicitly in 2002.
- 20:48Quote. The US government has a printing
- 20:51press that allows it to produce as many dollars as it wishes at
- 20:55essentially no cost. End Quote.
- 20:59That's the Feds nightmare. Deflation and collapse.
- 21:02But inflation? They can create that on command
- 21:06now. The track record of course
- 21:07proves this. 2008 QE, 2012 druggies quote, whatever it
- 21:12takes program 2029 emergency programs and massive QE.
- 21:17And now, well, they're ending QT on December 1st.
- 21:21Powell already said that the Fed quote, will need to expand the
- 21:25balance sheet again. Lori Logan said that they'll
- 21:27need to, quote, begin buying assets.
- 21:31So they told you what's coming, right?
- 21:33They'll print, maybe they'll call it something else.
- 21:35Maybe they'll call, you know, liquidity operations, or they'll
- 21:38call it not QE, QE, but whatever you want to call it, money is
- 21:41going to be created. And so if you're holding dollars
- 21:44in a savings account, you're about to get diluted.
- 21:47If you hold assets, stocks, real estate and Bitcoin, anything
- 21:50with real value or scarce supply, you've at least got a
- 21:53chance to keep pace with the printing press.
- 21:56But this isn't neutral, right? QE creates winners and it
- 21:59creates losers. The top 10% own over 2/3 of the
- 22:04nation's wealth. They own 80% of the stocks.
- 22:07So when the Fed pumps asset prices, they benefit.
- 22:10But savers, they get left behind.
- 22:12And then the wealth gap, it widens, right?
- 22:15This is the data. This is the pattern that's about
- 22:18to repeat. So the only question that you
- 22:20should be asking yourself is which side of the line are you
- 22:23going to be on, right? If we stack all this up, the Fed
- 22:27drain liquidity while the government spent like it's still
- 22:31in a crisis that triggered A funding stress funding crisis.
- 22:34Stopping QT just freezes the problem, but it doesn't actually
- 22:38fix it. And when they restart QE, which
- 22:40is what they're doing now, it's not going to be like the 2000
- 22:43tens. You're going to see both asset
- 22:45inflation and consumer price inflation at the same time.
- 22:48If he's right, this entire crash might not be a top, it might be
- 22:52a bear trap engineered by bigger players while retail freaks out.
- 22:57Now before we zoom out and put a bow on this entire move, quick
- 23:01break. Because surviving these
- 23:03drawdowns isn't just about conviction, it's about having
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- 23:59So where does this leave us in the short term?
- 24:03This crash is a reminder that Bitcoin is still Bitcoin,
- 24:07brutally volatile, Ruth honest and completely unforgiving to
- 24:12leverage. If you're overextended, the
- 24:14market will find you and they will liquidate you.
- 24:18But structurally, the halving math hasn't changed.
- 24:21The 21 million cap hasn't changed, exchange balances are
- 24:25still multi year lows, inactive supply is still climbing and
- 24:30even at 95,000 most of the network is still in profit and
- 24:35holding. The narrative has changed from
- 24:38straight line sign up only to oh wait, this is a market with
- 24:43macro liquidity and human emotion.
- 24:45That's not bearish, that's just reality.
- 24:48So here's my challenge for you. Instead of asking is the bull
- 24:52market over, ask what side of this transfer do I want to be
- 24:56on? They're going to be real winners
- 24:58and losers and and you're not going to get a do over, you
- 25:01know, you're you're not going to get a do over.
- 25:03It's not going to be like, oh gosh, I missed it.
- 25:04Maybe I'll, you know, I mean, it's like we could wake up one
- 25:07day and the government could say, you know, we're going to a
- 25:08gold standard. We're taking the price of gold
- 25:10up to $20,000. We either own gold and gold
- 25:12mining stocks or you don't. They're going to go enormously.
- 25:15Same thing with Bitcoin. I mean, you know, the US could
- 25:18say we're going to do a strategic Bitcoin reserve and
- 25:20the Bitcoin price could triple. Well, if you don't have any, you
- 25:23don't benefit from that. Do you want to be the person
- 25:25panic selling into a leverage wipeout and ETF capitulation or
- 25:30do you want to be the person calmly sacking when the fear and
- 25:33greed index is screaming fear and fundamentals are intact?
- 25:38Drop a comment and tell me, are you buying the SIP sitting on
- 25:41your hands or did this crash shake your conviction?
- 25:45Be honest, this is how we all get better.
- 25:48Either way, remember to zoom out.
- 25:50Stay humble, take self custody and stop letting red candles
- 25:54rent space in your head. Stack slay and stay bullish.
- 25:58I'm Sophie. This is simply bitcoins.
- 26:00Satoshi. Hit the like button, subscribe
- 26:03to this channel and turn on the notification bells and I'll see
- 26:07you in the next one. Hi.