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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Wild Card Weekend · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:14
Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman of the Action Network. I am
0:17
Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio and them joined
0:22
Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
0:26
Speaker 1: my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
0:30
Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in, Hello Chad.
0:33
Speaker 3: How are we doing, dude?
0:35
Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Wild Card Best Bets episode. We're
0:40
Speaker 1: gonna do something a little bit different with today's show. Normally,
0:43
Speaker 1: we only look at sides for each game. Those are
0:45
Speaker 1: the most popular bets, and we do the contests that
0:48
Speaker 1: are tied to them.
0:49
Speaker 2: But there are fewer games.
0:51
Speaker 1: Our opinions on the sides we like haven't changed that
0:54
Speaker 1: much since Tuesday. We've gotten some new intel, then lines
0:57
Speaker 1: are moving, so I think we're feeling more strongly about
1:00
Speaker 1: some games. But we're adding any other best that we
1:03
Speaker 1: like as well, which a couple people have emailed me
1:07
Speaker 1: about if we could add that.
1:09
Speaker 2: Hopefully I will give folks more to look for, more
1:12
Speaker 2: to root for, more to think about.
1:14
Speaker 1: For this weekend, we will of course get into the foxhole.
1:16
Speaker 1: We'll give out our Tommy John Big Ball's bet of
1:19
Speaker 1: the week, We'll discuss your biggest bets, We'll do our
1:22
Speaker 1: boosted money line, underdog parlay, so on and so on
1:27
Speaker 1: later on in the show. Today, Simon and I did
1:29
Speaker 1: have a chat. This was fantastic and I encourage everyone
1:32
Speaker 1: to listen with Daniel Winsenberg, the pride of North Dakota
1:37
Speaker 1: bow Bells, North Dakota, population three hundred and he lives
1:40
Speaker 1: outside of bell Bells.
1:42
Speaker 2: He's the winner of.
1:43
Speaker 1: Our forty thousand dollars first place prize and the favorites
1:46
Speaker 1: Pro Football Pick Them contest, an absolute pleasure with a
1:50
Speaker 1: kicker surprise ending that could have Simon and I end
1:56
Speaker 1: up being the most popular names in our all of
2:00
Speaker 1: bow Bells, North Dakota. So please listen for that's He's
2:04
Speaker 1: great and he deserves the attention. Bets are rolling in,
2:07
Speaker 1: lines are moving, decisions need to be made. As our
2:10
Speaker 1: volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhard likes to.
2:12
Speaker 2: Say there's a sea of money out there.
2:15
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet
2:18
Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
2:20
Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
2:22
Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars. Son of using promo code
2:25
Speaker 1: favorite deposit fifty dollars. Deposit ten dollars in place to
2:29
Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
2:31
Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
2:34
Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
2:37
Speaker 1: It's never ordinary at bet three sixty five must be
2:40
Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
2:45
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
2:48
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
2:51
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off an io terms. Conditions
2:54
Speaker 1: restrictions apply all right, as always on Thursdays, we like
3:00
Speaker 1: to hear how the wise guys are responding to our
3:03
Speaker 1: Tuesday conversation. I especially like to hear how they're responding
3:07
Speaker 1: to me and our Tuesday conversation.
3:11
Speaker 2: But whatever the.
3:12
Speaker 1: Case is, they feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions.
3:15
Speaker 2: Let's do sharp calls.
3:20
Speaker 3: Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.
3:24
Speaker 1: Rain telephone rang somebody saying maybe wanted to do.
3:28
Speaker 3: In Yeah, it's a week of some disagreement. Chat, I
3:33
Speaker 3: think we already knew that coming into us. We loved
3:36
Speaker 3: the Chargers, so let's start with that one. We are
3:40
Speaker 3: firmly with Joe Public on that one basically, and you
3:43
Speaker 3: probably have talked to you. For the most part is
3:45
Speaker 3: on the other side. And I kind of knew they
3:48
Speaker 3: were going to because all the trends kind of favorite
3:51
Speaker 3: the Houston side. But I thought it would be more
3:55
Speaker 3: people basing off their models and just you know what
3:57
Speaker 3: they've watched, And I think they're just going to go
4:00
Speaker 3: play the statistical numbers and the you know, the fact
4:02
Speaker 3: that the percentage of say, if you long term you
4:05
Speaker 3: bet Houston's exact spot, that's a winner long term. But
4:08
Speaker 3: me and Chad ain't here to do that. Me and
4:10
Speaker 3: Chat are going with a bet that we think is
4:12
Speaker 3: smart and we think we're getting a great number, especially
4:14
Speaker 3: in my two and a half. So that feels like
4:16
Speaker 3: the biggest sharp trap of the week. It feels like
4:19
Speaker 3: they're walking into one and that everyone just pretty much
4:23
Speaker 3: patting each other on the ass and saying how smart
4:25
Speaker 3: each each other are on Houston, And you know, could
4:29
Speaker 3: they cover it? Sure? Houston's been a team that's played
4:31
Speaker 3: close games all season. I don't fault the for taking
4:34
Speaker 3: the three, but I just don't understand the logic not
4:37
Speaker 3: taking the two and a half on the charters. To me,
4:39
Speaker 3: that's that's the no no. So I'm excited to break
4:43
Speaker 3: that one down even more because I do have opinion
4:45
Speaker 3: on that total next game. Shockingly, Chad, the the pros
4:50
Speaker 3: i've talked you like the Ravens, which I am shocked by.
4:54
Speaker 3: I thought it would be Pittsburgh heavy. It's not. As
4:59
Speaker 3: obviously there are pro like me who just are taking
5:01
Speaker 3: that ten, Like, how do you not take that? Plus ten?
5:03
Speaker 3: That was such a great number, still feels like a gift.
5:06
Speaker 3: Even Beth three six'y five is still holding at ten
5:08
Speaker 3: at their book. But when you talked a lot of
5:10
Speaker 3: these booksmakers, it's like the amount of money they have
5:13
Speaker 3: on the Ravens, adding in professional money that's come in
5:17
Speaker 3: on the Ravens, especially early, like the Ravens open seven
5:20
Speaker 3: and a half, like that was basically all the money
5:23
Speaker 3: they got earlier was just professional money and pretty interesting
5:27
Speaker 3: hearing guys though, still willing to take the Ravens at
5:30
Speaker 3: minus nine and a half, and I just I don't know.
5:34
Speaker 3: It feels like I'm taking crazy pills here, and I
5:36
Speaker 3: get where they're coming from. Right, Tomlin hasn't won a
5:38
Speaker 3: playoff game since whatever it is, twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen.
5:41
Speaker 3: I understand that, but I just can't. I can't believe
5:45
Speaker 3: these guys are this confident, taking a double digit favorite
5:48
Speaker 3: in and against a divisional foe who's they've struggled against.
5:52
Speaker 3: So again, that's another game we're going to go through.
5:56
Speaker 3: You were on the professional side in this bill is
5:58
Speaker 3: one I thought more pros were on Denver. It's it's split,
6:03
Speaker 3: for sure, but it's more pros I've talked to do
6:06
Speaker 3: like this Bills side, and it is going back to
6:09
Speaker 3: what you know, we talked about with Evan or I
6:11
Speaker 3: guess we haven't yet, but just basically, these quarterbacks making
6:15
Speaker 3: their first start, it's it's a real thing. We have
6:18
Speaker 3: the numbers that back it up. Like it's just different.
6:21
Speaker 3: The playoffs are simply just different. And now you factor
6:23
Speaker 3: in that this is a rookie making their first start,
6:25
Speaker 3: and yeah, we had a little run there where you know,
6:28
Speaker 3: Brock Purty won his first start CJ last year right
6:31
Speaker 3: against Joe Flac on the Browns won his first start,
6:33
Speaker 3: so we haven't had a little comeback to other way.
6:36
Speaker 3: That makes even more confident in this going the other
6:38
Speaker 3: way because we are due for more of these first
6:41
Speaker 3: time quarterbacks to get lost this year. So that was
6:43
Speaker 3: when they jumped out. I did not think pros would
6:45
Speaker 3: be on the bills, but they love the bills. We
6:49
Speaker 3: are on the public side, chat, I think you already
6:51
Speaker 3: knew that our our egos love is heavily public, you know.
6:56
Speaker 3: I think I, you know, talked to a handful of
7:00
Speaker 3: guys that had bet the Eagles, but none of it
7:02
Speaker 3: with confidence. Everyone and I've talked to you thinks is
7:05
Speaker 3: a trap game for this Eagles team and that you know,
7:09
Speaker 3: too many people are discounting and counting out this Green
7:11
Speaker 3: Bay team. That I mean, I think you touched on
7:14
Speaker 3: a little bit Chad with the floor. They're just such
7:16
Speaker 3: a well coached team, and he performed so well as
7:18
Speaker 3: an underdog. This is a really a little floor spot,
7:21
Speaker 3: like in this exact scenario, he tends to cover these numbers,
7:24
Speaker 3: so you know, doesn't make me feel great. I got
7:27
Speaker 3: this out a minus six number, and I had a
7:28
Speaker 3: couple of guys being like, you're fucking way off. That's
7:31
Speaker 3: a bad number. You should have trusted your original number
7:33
Speaker 3: of four. And I just I push back on that.
7:36
Speaker 3: I just think this Eagles team is just so good
7:38
Speaker 3: across the board, and they're fully healthy. Even watching Jalen
7:42
Speaker 3: Hurts in that practice the other day, it's like, you know,
7:45
Speaker 3: you would never know he's coming off two weeks of
7:46
Speaker 3: a concussion not working out like he just looks fully informed,
7:49
Speaker 3: ready to go. So I'm excited to break that one down.
7:52
Speaker 3: See if if you're confidence a way, they're all like,
7:55
Speaker 3: you know, I still love the Eagles, but I'm probably
7:57
Speaker 3: gonna invest a little bit more in green Bay first quarter,
7:59
Speaker 3: green Bay first half. So that'll be my a little
8:02
Speaker 3: bit of a hedge hred trust the Eagles to really
8:04
Speaker 3: roll them in the second half. But I agree with
8:06
Speaker 3: the professionals that they they think the Egles might come
8:08
Speaker 3: out sol a little sloppy against a green Bay team
8:11
Speaker 3: that is going to be prepared and ready to play
8:12
Speaker 3: in this game. You know, here's a game that we love.
8:16
Speaker 3: The professionals love Washington, Tampa Bay. We love Tampa. The
8:21
Speaker 3: pros love Tampa, public loves Commanders. We already know that,
8:24
Speaker 3: So that I don't even need to dive into that
8:25
Speaker 3: too much. We'll break that down we go through the games.
8:28
Speaker 3: Last one not a shocker at all. I mean, this
8:31
Speaker 3: is another side. We love Rams, the public loves loves
8:36
Speaker 3: loves Minnesota. I haven't talked to a single pro yet
8:40
Speaker 3: that has taken the Viking side, And you know, a
8:43
Speaker 3: couple of guys I talked to haven't bet this. Their
8:45
Speaker 3: view is I can wait and maybe this number will
8:48
Speaker 3: flip and I can get this Vikings team as a dog,
8:51
Speaker 3: and that's the position I want to be on. And
8:53
Speaker 3: I joke with them. I'm on the complete same mindset
8:56
Speaker 3: from the other side, where it's like I've been betting
8:59
Speaker 3: the one and a half on this Rams team, but
9:01
Speaker 3: I really have been loading up on teasers with them,
9:02
Speaker 3: like this is my favorite teaser team, them and the Bills.
9:07
Speaker 3: I know it's sacrilegeed to tease through zero Wong teasers,
9:11
Speaker 3: but I kind of don't really respect Wang teasers, especially
9:14
Speaker 3: when it comes to playoff time. I feel like it's
9:16
Speaker 3: a little outdated. I've been teasing the Chargers through zero
9:19
Speaker 3: up to three and a half, so I have a
9:21
Speaker 3: couple them at three and a half Rams up to
9:23
Speaker 3: seven and a half. I just love this number. And
9:28
Speaker 3: you know that's a game where yes, we know what's
9:31
Speaker 3: happening in California. Me and Chad, we think of all
9:33
Speaker 3: these people and all these guys' families who are being
9:35
Speaker 3: affected by these fires, and could that be a major
9:38
Speaker 3: issue for a lot of these RAMS players who do
9:40
Speaker 3: have stuff going on outside the field and they have
9:42
Speaker 3: major distractions of course, but me and Chad we can't
9:45
Speaker 3: handicap that, Like we're just going off the numbers here.
9:47
Speaker 3: So yeah, for the most part, Chad, we're dead on
9:50
Speaker 3: with our love of the Bucks and the Rams. On
9:53
Speaker 3: the other games, it all sounds pretty split up between
9:55
Speaker 3: the professionals, So it's it's an interesting week for sure.
9:59
Speaker 1: Well let's get into it. Let's start with that Chargers
10:01
Speaker 1: game right now. The number at bet three sixty five
10:04
Speaker 1: got this Chargers minus three.
10:06
Speaker 2: The total is forty two and a half.
10:09
Speaker 1: There is a two and a half out there, it
10:13
Speaker 1: is available. I've hit the two and a half a
10:15
Speaker 1: couple times. I know, Simon, you've probably hit it more.
10:18
Speaker 1: This was my exact decision stats that I didn't mention
10:23
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, And again, I know you know the wise
10:28
Speaker 1: guys they have been leaning into the Texans. If you
10:31
Speaker 1: listen to Stucky in Raybon on the Action Network pod,
10:35
Speaker 1: they freaking love the Texans. This weekend, Stroud finished thirty CJ.
10:43
Speaker 1: Stroud finished thirty first in EPA and completion percentage over expectation. Okay,
10:53
Speaker 1: the Texans finished thirty first in early down success rate
10:58
Speaker 1: head of just the Browns.
11:01
Speaker 2: We talked about the O line. CJ.
11:03
Speaker 1: Stroud pressured twenty eight percent of his dropbacks. That was
11:07
Speaker 1: second most in the league and one of the reasons
11:10
Speaker 1: a lot of the analysts all season long, if you
11:13
Speaker 1: read anybody who was breaking down CJ. Stroud's troubles, they
11:18
Speaker 1: were talking about his achilles heel. This year has been
11:22
Speaker 1: against defenses running two high safety schemes. Chargers do list
11:29
Speaker 1: nearly sixty percent of the time and Shrouds YPA against
11:34
Speaker 1: this is twenty eighth, and his QB rating is thirty first.
11:37
Speaker 1: So I still feel good about it. I am not
11:41
Speaker 1: expecting some kind of miraculous recovery that all of a
11:46
Speaker 1: sudden this team is going to be different than it
11:49
Speaker 1: was all throughout the season. Normally, in the playoffs, when
11:52
Speaker 1: teams lose, they lose because of the same things they
11:54
Speaker 1: did all season long, Right, isn't that always what happens?
11:58
Speaker 1: Like you watch a playoff game, and the things that
12:00
Speaker 1: have been bugaboos for teams throughout the year are the
12:03
Speaker 1: reasons why they.
12:04
Speaker 2: Can't convert, can't get over the top in the playoffs.
12:09
Speaker 1: The things that the Chargers are good at are the
12:13
Speaker 1: things that the Texans have struggled with. I don't get
12:16
Speaker 1: the love, Simon, I don't get the wise guy love
12:20
Speaker 1: for the Texans here at all.
12:23
Speaker 3: Well, again, a bunch of different things that I think
12:25
Speaker 3: they look into, especially if you're looking at the trends,
12:27
Speaker 3: is this is the you know, another tough road game,
12:31
Speaker 3: a tough spot for this Chargers team, And historically when
12:34
Speaker 3: teams have played a bunch of road games in a row, right,
12:37
Speaker 3: doesn't work out for them right heading to the playoffs,
12:39
Speaker 3: we've kind of seen it that, you know, Evan had
12:42
Speaker 3: an amazing stats since two thousand and three, teams that
12:44
Speaker 3: are on their third road games or later on any
12:46
Speaker 3: road trip, they're forty five and seventy one straight up,
12:49
Speaker 3: so thirty nine percent. And these teams are five and
12:51
Speaker 3: twelve straight up over the last three seasons of this
12:54
Speaker 3: exact spot So that's kind of logic right that they're like.
12:57
Speaker 2: Oh, you know what I would like to know.
12:59
Speaker 1: I'd like to know maybe Evan, you can figure this
13:01
Speaker 1: out and we can talk about it in the show.
13:05
Speaker 1: Teams that are on the third road game as a favorite,
13:09
Speaker 1: I don't know what this sample sizes. This is going
13:11
Speaker 1: to be for Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, the coaches who
13:18
Speaker 1: I think are real difference makers. You know, you can
13:21
Speaker 1: throw in some John Harbaugh, other coaches who in these
13:26
Speaker 1: past twenty years have been real factors when it comes
13:32
Speaker 1: to power rating these teams, and I think this year
13:35
Speaker 1: it matters more than ever, and I just think that's
13:38
Speaker 1: going to put them in a better position to accumulate
13:41
Speaker 1: points in the exact spot where they need.
13:43
Speaker 3: To and just to close it out. And basically a
13:46
Speaker 3: team like the Chargers playing this exact spot. So three
13:50
Speaker 3: straight road games into the playoffs, they're eleven and twenty
13:54
Speaker 3: seven straight up. So they only went twenty nine percent
13:56
Speaker 3: of the time. So that's what I said on Tuesday.
13:58
Speaker 3: I was fine with me Chad that thirty percent. Like again,
14:01
Speaker 3: it happens obviously that one out of three times, So
14:04
Speaker 3: we're basically banking on that here making this bet for
14:08
Speaker 3: the most part, but it really is all about kind
14:10
Speaker 3: of what you just touched on there. It's about this
14:12
Speaker 3: Chargers team they're coaching Herbert himself, like, I just have
14:16
Speaker 3: a ton of confidence guy, especially as a favorite on
14:19
Speaker 3: the road. Like he's been really good to us as
14:21
Speaker 3: a favorite on the road, and usually when the books
14:23
Speaker 3: price him that way, it tends to go our way.
14:25
Speaker 3: And you know, he's seven to one against the spreadings
14:28
Speaker 3: exact spot his last eight, so it's like he clearly
14:32
Speaker 3: has done really well in this exact scenario of being
14:34
Speaker 3: on the road as a favorite. And you know, it's
14:38
Speaker 3: interesting talking to pros just why they're so confident in
14:41
Speaker 3: this Texan thing. When you do push them chat and
14:44
Speaker 3: you try to get them to really break it down,
14:47
Speaker 3: it feels like they're betting on a Texas team that
14:50
Speaker 3: doesn't exist anymore.
14:51
Speaker 1: Like I was just those are the exact words when
14:53
Speaker 1: you were saying they're betting on the Texans teams. I
14:55
Speaker 1: was in my head, I'm saying that doesn't exist. It's
14:58
Speaker 1: not a Texans team that they think they're betting.
15:01
Speaker 3: And a Texas team.
15:03
Speaker 1: What they're really good at on defense is pressuring the quarterback.
15:07
Speaker 1: The Chargers have two of the best tackles in the
15:09
Speaker 1: NFL and Joe Alton Rashaan Slater, so the one thing
15:12
Speaker 1: that they're great at, and their secondary is so banged
15:14
Speaker 1: up they're down to third stringers across the board when
15:17
Speaker 1: you're talking about quarnerbacks like well, not Stingley obviously, but
15:21
Speaker 1: in other positions they can stop the pressure because their defense,
15:26
Speaker 1: their tackles are so good.
15:29
Speaker 3: And I do see a word where they can cover
15:31
Speaker 3: the summer just because yes, if the moment's too big
15:34
Speaker 3: for Herbert and Houston's defense, who has played really well
15:37
Speaker 3: all season. We know how great of a coach Damiko
15:40
Speaker 3: Rans is and how he just gets his defense fired
15:43
Speaker 3: up and ready to play in almost every game. That
15:45
Speaker 3: is their formula, right, somehow keep this game ugly and close.
15:48
Speaker 3: But we've seen it. The Chargers team. They just don't
15:51
Speaker 3: play that. They don't they're never the ones that make
15:53
Speaker 3: the mistakes, and if you want to play ugly, they're
15:55
Speaker 3: happy to play it ugly, like they are more than
15:57
Speaker 3: happy to do that. But we've seen them transition this
16:00
Speaker 3: second half of the season, where you know Herberts has
16:03
Speaker 3: gotten so much more comfortable. These wide receivers and his receivers.
16:06
Speaker 3: You know, we can knock them for their drops. They
16:09
Speaker 3: have gotten better as the seam's gone long here and
16:11
Speaker 3: his connection with Lad McConkie's grown as well. So it's
16:13
Speaker 3: like it feels like these are two different teams that
16:16
Speaker 3: I don't think the professions have given enough credit to
16:19
Speaker 3: the Chargers team, how they've improved and discrediting this Houston
16:22
Speaker 3: team that have lost so many key pieces to this team.
16:24
Speaker 3: So yeah, weill me and Chad be killing ourselves with this.
16:28
Speaker 3: Lane's on two if the Chargers win, but it's by
16:30
Speaker 3: two and we've been choking all season, how important two
16:32
Speaker 3: and a half is? Yes, that's gonna hurt. But I
16:35
Speaker 3: have to trust the number here and think me and
16:38
Speaker 3: you are getting a really good number. And if you're
16:40
Speaker 3: like me and you're kind of feeling like a little
16:42
Speaker 3: bit of a coward with this one, just because the
16:44
Speaker 3: pros are so heavy on Houston, tease it through zero. Like,
16:47
Speaker 3: if you're getting charges three and a half, there is
16:49
Speaker 3: no scenario, no snare I see Houston winning by more
16:52
Speaker 3: than three. If they do win this like that to
16:54
Speaker 3: me is by far the safest bet. But if you'd
16:56
Speaker 3: like to be a risk taker, which me and Chad are.
16:59
Speaker 3: I don't know how you don't take this Chargers number here,
17:01
Speaker 3: and you know, obviously I keep talking with this defense here.
17:04
Speaker 3: I love the under as well, Like this is to
17:07
Speaker 3: me another play on this game where it's like, that's
17:09
Speaker 3: way too high of a total. I got it at
17:11
Speaker 3: forty one. It was forty three and a half. It's
17:14
Speaker 3: been bet down to forty two and a half. Still
17:16
Speaker 3: that's a key number. You're still getting great value on
17:18
Speaker 3: this number. So this is there's a couple of games
17:21
Speaker 3: I like the under end. This is towards the top
17:22
Speaker 3: of my list. I really love this under.
17:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say, I think I lean women.
17:26
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the total, so I lean
17:29
Speaker 1: that way as well. I think it'll be conservative. I
17:33
Speaker 1: think they're going to try to limit their own mistakes,
17:36
Speaker 1: potentially forcing some from Stroud and.
17:39
Speaker 3: We'll know we'll be dead and playoffs are weird. We'll
17:41
Speaker 3: be dead in a minute chat if this goes over,
17:43
Speaker 3: like if it's twenty to fourteen the first half the
17:46
Speaker 3: writings on the wall, we're dead. But that's that's my
17:49
Speaker 3: view of this, where it's like I can just see
17:52
Speaker 3: one offense of one of these teams showing up. The
17:53
Speaker 3: other other offense just not going to get it going because,
17:56
Speaker 3: like we said, these are two defenses that do know
17:58
Speaker 3: how to scheme it up and play well against teams.
18:00
Speaker 3: So yeah, I do. I do love this total.
18:02
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is a nine point underdog right now at bet
18:09
Speaker 1: three sixty five against the nine and a half I'm sorry,
18:14
Speaker 1: against the Ravens. The total forty three and a half.
18:17
Speaker 1: This was Simon says when it was at ten. It
18:20
Speaker 1: has moved to nine and a half. It's at ten
18:22
Speaker 1: in some other places. It was ten at bet three
18:25
Speaker 1: sixty five this morning and now it's back down.
18:27
Speaker 2: So we do not officially know.
18:30
Speaker 1: The status as a Flowers. He did not practice earlier
18:34
Speaker 1: this week. Ian Rapaport of NFL Network has reported it
18:38
Speaker 1: that he is a long shot to play. Like we
18:42
Speaker 1: talked on Tuesday, we were going to run through some
18:44
Speaker 1: of the trends for the Steelers, and it does worry
18:49
Speaker 1: me how well teams that are double digit faves have
18:52
Speaker 1: performed in the wildcard round.
18:55
Speaker 2: But this is not the same Steelers.
18:58
Speaker 1: Team I think that lost thirty four to seventeen to
19:02
Speaker 1: the Steelers that lost thirty four to seventeen to the
19:06
Speaker 1: Ravens a few weeks ago. Reminder, under Tomlin Steelers are
19:11
Speaker 1: six and one as a dog of more than three
19:13
Speaker 1: points versus the Ravens. That one loss was on the
19:16
Speaker 1: twenty first of December. Over the last twenty years, underdog
19:20
Speaker 1: in the series, seventy four percent underdog sixteen three in
19:24
Speaker 1: one since twenty fifteen. Tomlin twenty one, sixteen straight up,
19:30
Speaker 1: nineteen fifteen three against spread versus John Harbaugh as a
19:34
Speaker 1: dog thirteen three and two. Now, you tell me how
19:38
Speaker 1: much you hate playing Lamar in the playoffs, because you do.
19:43
Speaker 1: But I just think the Steelers defense is better than
19:47
Speaker 1: it was when they played on the twenty first. They
19:50
Speaker 1: were missing a lot of guys in the secondary. We
19:52
Speaker 1: talked about Joey Porter going out of the middle of
19:54
Speaker 1: that game. That's when the tides started to turn and
19:57
Speaker 1: they really needed to be perfect on offense and they weren't.
20:01
Speaker 1: So I'm still good with the Steelers here at ten. Obviously,
20:06
Speaker 1: would rather have the ten than nine and a half.
20:08
Speaker 1: I'm surprised the wise guys are so confident about the Ravens.
20:12
Speaker 3: I think they're confidence stems from the struggle of Russell
20:16
Speaker 3: Wilson down the stretch and if even that game you're
20:18
Speaker 3: talking about, if you go back to it, it's a
20:19
Speaker 3: seven to seven game and they are driving the field
20:22
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and they're into the red zone. Russell Wilson runs
20:25
Speaker 3: with the ball and instead of sliding, he tries to
20:28
Speaker 3: get that extra one or two yards, gets popped and fumbles.
20:31
Speaker 3: That to me, would flip that whole game. Like that
20:33
Speaker 3: gave all the momentum back to the Ravens and then
20:36
Speaker 3: we know the issue, right they got Yeah, two more
20:38
Speaker 3: injuries on the defense you just talked about. Joey Porter
20:40
Speaker 3: Junior went out in that game all of a sudden.
20:42
Speaker 3: It was just rolling. Like Lamar was into his zone.
20:45
Speaker 3: That's the key for Lamar. If he gets into his zone,
20:48
Speaker 3: into our rhythm, we're probably gonna be cooked here, brother,
20:51
Speaker 3: Like this guy is the two time MVP.
20:53
Speaker 2: Might be three times, like you know, she don't know,
20:55
Speaker 2: should be three times?
20:57
Speaker 3: Wow, really you're one of those Oh my god.
20:59
Speaker 1: Totally if you if you took the names off the
21:02
Speaker 1: list and did not know Lamar Jackson had won the
21:07
Speaker 1: past two and you looked at the numbers, it's not
21:11
Speaker 1: even comparable. It really isn't. He was such a good
21:16
Speaker 1: quarterback this year, so much better statistically than Josh Allen
21:20
Speaker 1: in so many ways. It's not even it shouldn't even
21:25
Speaker 1: be a conversation.
21:26
Speaker 2: It really shouldn't.
21:27
Speaker 3: That's fair. Maybe it's kind of like Leo getting his Oscar, right,
21:31
Speaker 3: I think that's how I feel with Josh Allen. It's
21:32
Speaker 3: like he has earned the right to get this MVP
21:35
Speaker 3: in my view because of what he's done over his
21:37
Speaker 3: career and this amount of time. And I agree with you, Lamar,
21:41
Speaker 3: incredible season and everything like that, but I am I'm
21:44
Speaker 3: one of those people. I'm kind of dugg in on
21:46
Speaker 3: Josh a. I think he deserves it for the season
21:47
Speaker 3: he put together, just because it's all about expectations, right,
21:51
Speaker 3: And I look back to the start of the year
21:54
Speaker 3: and I just I'm just blown away with Josh Allen
21:57
Speaker 3: accomplished with this team that we thought had nothing left
22:00
Speaker 3: on the flip side of Lamar, not that I'm saying
22:01
Speaker 3: I expected it, but come on, man, the dude had
22:04
Speaker 3: he got Derrick Henry. That was a huge upgrade to
22:06
Speaker 3: this guy who was already MVP before getting the second
22:09
Speaker 3: third best running back of football. But yeah, for this
22:12
Speaker 3: game specifically. You know, we know the stats about Lamar, right, Lamar,
22:18
Speaker 3: me and Chad have talked at NAS about this guy.
22:20
Speaker 3: He is probably my favorite quarterback to bet on in
22:22
Speaker 3: the regular season. He just is a cash cow. He
22:25
Speaker 3: is so good to me and Chad and we kind
22:26
Speaker 3: of have a rhythm with him. We know at this number,
22:29
Speaker 3: you take him when it's under three, right, you take
22:31
Speaker 3: them when it's above three, either fad or you just
22:34
Speaker 3: stay away. And you know, we can't avoid the numbers
22:38
Speaker 3: that are out there for the playoffs. And I know
22:40
Speaker 3: the fans get upset about and they're like, you can't
22:42
Speaker 3: keep judging right. Eventually, Peyton Manning got over the hump.
22:46
Speaker 3: I agree, you eventually will get over the hump. I
22:50
Speaker 3: just I'm not going to be betting on it. Like
22:52
Speaker 3: he burned me so hard last year where it was
22:56
Speaker 3: lined up perfectly for him and his team, he couldn't
22:58
Speaker 3: do it, and like he turned back into Lamar. And
23:01
Speaker 3: you know in the regular season, Lamar twenty and five
23:04
Speaker 3: straight up in night games. Incredible, twenty and five straight
23:07
Speaker 3: up in night games. He plays like that's an insane
23:10
Speaker 3: stat that he's eighty percent. In the playoffs, he's owing
23:13
Speaker 3: two in night games, and you'd be like, well, it's
23:16
Speaker 3: it's individual games. Okay. He lost the Bills on the
23:19
Speaker 3: road seventeen to three, and then he lost at home
23:22
Speaker 3: twenty eight to twelve against that Titans team. And that
23:24
Speaker 3: is if you go through the day, like you said, Chad,
23:26
Speaker 3: double digit favorites have performed really well seventeen and one
23:30
Speaker 3: straight up. That one loss is that Titans game. So
23:33
Speaker 3: to me, there is something with this Lamar stuff where
23:35
Speaker 3: it's like you can't overrate his struggles in the playoffs.
23:39
Speaker 3: I know people want to keep brushing it by, but
23:41
Speaker 3: it's like, if you look at the list of two
23:43
Speaker 3: time MVPs, just about all of them have Super Bowl rings.
23:46
Speaker 3: He's one of the few guys that, you know it
23:48
Speaker 3: just has not lived up to the hype and performance
23:50
Speaker 3: of the regular season in the playoffs. So to me,
23:54
Speaker 3: this is the worst match that he possibly could have got.
23:56
Speaker 3: He's going against a divisional foe that has his number,
23:58
Speaker 3: that plays really well against them. And I am very
24:03
Speaker 3: dug in on this, like I just love this Pittsburgh team. Now.
24:06
Speaker 3: The only reason I'm not hammering people being like you
24:07
Speaker 3: have to take Pittsburgh's money line you gotta do. It
24:10
Speaker 3: is just because of tomlin struggle in the playoffs, like
24:12
Speaker 3: his team just has not been winning these playoff games,
24:14
Speaker 3: and that is you know, you could say, well, you
24:16
Speaker 3: guysn't have the quarterbacks and everything like that. I do
24:18
Speaker 3: agree with that, but some of it is on Tomlin,
24:21
Speaker 3: like he's just not had great decisions at the end
24:23
Speaker 3: of these playoff games. And you know, I'm gonna be
24:27
Speaker 3: betting it, but it's not gonna be me and Chad's
24:29
Speaker 3: money line around Robin, right, We're not that crazy at
24:31
Speaker 3: this point, so or I should say our parlay we
24:34
Speaker 3: give out. So I do love it. I'm betting their
24:36
Speaker 3: money line. But to me, the smart safe bet here
24:38
Speaker 3: is taking the plus ten if you can still get
24:40
Speaker 3: it on this Pittsburgh team. I just think that's way
24:42
Speaker 3: too much value on a game that's going to be close.
24:46
Speaker 3: And Chad, we know the deal here. If we get
24:49
Speaker 3: one or two of those magical Pittsburgh bounces which we've
24:52
Speaker 3: lived off of, they could upset and win this game.
24:55
Speaker 3: Like if the momentum flips to them, Lamar is going
24:58
Speaker 3: to feel all that weight on him, and that to
25:01
Speaker 3: me is something that is kind of the human element
25:04
Speaker 3: of it. It's something that I can't put into my model,
25:06
Speaker 3: and we really can't put a number to it. But
25:08
Speaker 3: that's a real thing. Like if it's midway through the
25:10
Speaker 3: third quarter, Lamar as zero touchdowns and a pick and
25:13
Speaker 3: he's down by say three or four points, he's going
25:16
Speaker 3: to be pressing, like there's no way he's not going
25:18
Speaker 3: to be pressing and try to push a ball downfield
25:20
Speaker 3: and we're asked, you just said it from the top
25:21
Speaker 3: of the show. Jay Flowers missed two practices in a
25:24
Speaker 3: row at this point, and he's a long shot to
25:25
Speaker 3: playing this game. That's another thing that's not being talked
25:28
Speaker 3: about enough. So yeah, I'm I think you clearly can
25:30
Speaker 3: tell I am heavily invested in. I really like this
25:32
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh number.
25:34
Speaker 2: I'm on the number two, don't. I don't buy the Lamar.
25:40
Speaker 1: Underperforming that in the playoffs, that data set for the
25:46
Speaker 1: zero to two specifically, Sometimes that just feels it feels
25:50
Speaker 1: too small and circumstantial. And I feel like these players
25:54
Speaker 1: change and get more confident. And I think if and
25:58
Speaker 1: this is an interesting bet, the Ravens are great in
26:03
Speaker 1: the first half. If the Ravens do what they're supposed
26:05
Speaker 1: to do in the first half. I think then he
26:08
Speaker 1: will be in a good position. I also agree with you,
26:10
Speaker 1: if they're struggling in the second half, some of that
26:14
Speaker 1: weight will come to bear. I'm not sure I buy
26:18
Speaker 1: the theory of anti Lamar as much as i'm pro
26:22
Speaker 1: spot pro Steelers being better than they were when they
26:26
Speaker 1: played you a little less than a month ago. One
26:30
Speaker 1: of the hot bets for Action is and likely to
26:33
Speaker 1: me a hot bet amongst regular betters is Baltimore first half,
26:38
Speaker 1: which is six and a half. Lamar are the best
26:40
Speaker 1: first half quarterback in the NFL in the past twenty years.
26:43
Speaker 1: Steeler is the worst first half team against the spread
26:47
Speaker 1: in the NFL since twenty twenty one. Give a thought
26:51
Speaker 1: on the first half the Steeler the Ravens six and
26:54
Speaker 1: a half.
26:55
Speaker 3: Well, I'll give you more useless numbers while I'm still here. Then, Lamar,
26:58
Speaker 3: in his career chat and play off game, he's never
27:01
Speaker 3: won a game where his team is given more than
27:03
Speaker 3: thirteen points. So, I mean, that's that's pretty alarming.
27:07
Speaker 1: That don't take it personally that I'm not into one
27:12
Speaker 1: of your stats.
27:13
Speaker 3: I haven't taken a personally. I'm standing up for find you,
27:17
Speaker 3: but no, I just I just my whole point of
27:19
Speaker 3: just breaking down is that he's been choking brother. Like
27:22
Speaker 3: guys want to deny it and be like, say what
27:23
Speaker 3: you just said. They're like, well, he can grow, he
27:25
Speaker 3: can change, all right, Well, let's fucking see it. I'm
27:27
Speaker 3: gonna bet against it because it's like, I have no
27:31
Speaker 3: data to back it up that he could. He has
27:32
Speaker 3: grown and changed. He dominates the regular season, and then
27:35
Speaker 3: he falls apart and does nothing in the playoffs. So
27:38
Speaker 3: we're we're gonna see it. Like these defenses know they're
27:41
Speaker 3: gonna stack the box, They're gonna make Lamar pass in
27:43
Speaker 3: this game. So yes, if Lamar doesn't get tight, we
27:48
Speaker 3: know he's the We just said it. He's the second
27:50
Speaker 3: or first best quarterback in football right now. So I'm
27:54
Speaker 3: with you, I get it. So yeah, that's just that's
27:56
Speaker 3: just my viewpoint is. I think it is a great
27:59
Speaker 3: number with Pittsburgh and everything like that, and my model
28:01
Speaker 3: backs it up. But the humanil of it of it,
28:04
Speaker 3: I'm just thinking psychologically, he just seems like he gets
28:07
Speaker 3: flustered in the playoffs and that's panned out these last
28:09
Speaker 3: couple of seasons.
28:11
Speaker 1: What do you think of the total to forty three
28:13
Speaker 1: and a half. It moved down from forty six, So
28:15
Speaker 1: it's a big move. I think partially because he's a Flowers.
28:19
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, maybe because people think.
28:20
Speaker 2: He'll be tight. I would expect that it'll be a
28:24
Speaker 2: low scoring game.
28:25
Speaker 3: You better hope. I just told you. I know his
28:30
Speaker 3: If his team allows more than thirteen points, he loses
28:33
Speaker 3: Lamar apparently in the playoffs. But my view of it is,
28:35
Speaker 3: if we're taking Pittsburgh, we can't have it be a shootout.
28:38
Speaker 3: I have no confidence in Pittsburgh's offense in a shootout
28:41
Speaker 3: right now. Like that Russell Wilson we joked about from
28:44
Speaker 3: week ten and all those you know midweek throwing those
28:47
Speaker 3: fifty to fifty balls and then working out for him.
28:48
Speaker 3: That has not been there these last four or five weeks.
28:51
Speaker 3: And I think even Evans said it right. He hasn't
28:53
Speaker 3: scored more than seventeen points in these last couple of weeks.
28:56
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's it's not a game that for we
29:00
Speaker 3: wanted to be a shot up. But I have no
29:01
Speaker 3: view on the total. Like I was gonna bet the under,
29:03
Speaker 3: but I'm show invested in Pittsburgh. That's just my play.
29:06
Speaker 1: Well, look if it's the kind of correlation where it's
29:11
Speaker 1: a very low total with a very high spread. So
29:14
Speaker 1: in those circumstances, you tend to want to lean into
29:16
Speaker 1: the underdog because people expect it will be a low
29:18
Speaker 1: scoring game, and it's just harder to win by ten
29:20
Speaker 1: points in a low scoring game.
29:22
Speaker 2: So I hope it goes out the way. With that,
29:24
Speaker 2: we wanted to Simon, Yes, sir, we're going.
29:27
Speaker 1: To have the winner of the one hundred thousand dollars
29:31
Speaker 1: Favorites Pick Them Contest come on the show today. Daniel
29:36
Speaker 1: Winsenberg from North Dakota.
29:39
Speaker 2: I'm so excited. How about you?
29:41
Speaker 3: I can't wait.
29:42
Speaker 2: Let's get to them.
29:45
Speaker 1: It is truly one of our greatest thrills that we
29:49
Speaker 1: get to do the Favorites Contest one hundred thousand dollars
29:55
Speaker 1: giveaway the grand prize winner forty thousand dollars. And this guy, Folks,
30:04
Speaker 1: had a miraculous run. He had more five and zero weeks,
30:08
Speaker 1: more undefeated weeks than he had losing weeks. If he
30:14
Speaker 1: had not even played the final week, he still would
30:19
Speaker 1: have won the contest. He beat out fifteen thousand people
30:25
Speaker 1: to win the forty thousand dollars he's North Dakota's finest gambler.
30:33
Speaker 1: Daniel Winsenberg. Welcome to the Favorites, brother, congratulations.
30:38
Speaker 4: Thank you. It's an honor to be on a show
30:40
Speaker 4: and it was great and I love doing it and
30:43
Speaker 4: trying to figure out who's gonna win it or or
30:45
Speaker 4: who at least.
30:45
Speaker 1: Cover You live in bow Bells, bo Bells, bo Bells,
30:50
Speaker 1: North Dakota. Dude, I looked on the map. Matt Mitchell
30:53
Speaker 1: sent it around to everybody. This place is tiny, tiny, tiny.
30:58
Speaker 4: My hometown as three hundred people in it. I live
31:02
Speaker 4: ten miles outside of that, and my graduating class had
31:06
Speaker 4: ten kids in it.
31:07
Speaker 3: So yes, I gotta know. How does one have Wi Fi?
31:11
Speaker 3: Do you have starlink you? How are you putting your
31:13
Speaker 3: picks in every week?
31:14
Speaker 4: We do have Wi Fi and luckily Dad O works
31:17
Speaker 4: on phone, so it's not too bad.
31:21
Speaker 2: What do you do there? Are you a farmer?
31:23
Speaker 4: That is exactly what I am. Yes, I lived here
31:26
Speaker 4: my whole life. My dad and my uncle farmed and
31:29
Speaker 4: then I just kind of joined in, and now me
31:31
Speaker 4: and my dad farmed together. My uncle retired, so that's
31:34
Speaker 4: the story. So we don't need people, We just need
31:36
Speaker 4: a lot of farmland, and I have cows too. We
31:40
Speaker 4: do wheat, canola, derm, oats, flax, soybeans, peas, trying to
31:46
Speaker 4: little corn. We're not really in corn country.
31:48
Speaker 1: But oat, flax, and soybeans. You basically described my entire diet.
31:54
Speaker 3: IM They're going to ask about daylight savans. What's your
31:56
Speaker 3: view on that? That's the topic we should be asking
31:58
Speaker 3: the farmer about. Should we change their foxes? Is that outdated?
32:01
Speaker 4: We need to go to the actual daylight savings time
32:04
Speaker 4: because right now it's getting too dark too early.
32:07
Speaker 3: There you go, yeah, all.
32:08
Speaker 1: Right, So give me your gambling load on. How did
32:10
Speaker 1: you get into it? And why are you so good
32:12
Speaker 1: at it?
32:12
Speaker 2: Right now? It's so much better than me and simon.
32:17
Speaker 3: Your ways.
32:17
Speaker 4: Because I farm, I spend a lot of time by
32:20
Speaker 4: myself or an a tractor or any equipment. So all day,
32:25
Speaker 4: every day, I just listen to podcasts. Our way I
32:28
Speaker 4: found you, guys is I listened to cow Herd all
32:30
Speaker 4: the time, and years ago when Chad was on with
32:33
Speaker 4: cow Herd, I just wanted more gambling podcasts. So I
32:36
Speaker 4: found out you had your own started listening every week,
32:38
Speaker 4: and I said, I just listened to sports podcasts all day.
32:41
Speaker 4: So between what my opinions are, see what I agree with,
32:45
Speaker 4: what I don't agree with, and then I don't know,
32:47
Speaker 4: kind of go from there, I guess. And then every
32:50
Speaker 4: Sunday I'm still in the tractor. I don't get to
32:52
Speaker 4: take off to watch football, so I take an iPad
32:54
Speaker 4: with and put the red zone on and kind of
32:56
Speaker 4: just listen. Don't have a lot of time to watch it,
32:58
Speaker 4: but always paying attention, I guess.
33:01
Speaker 1: I mean, that's the hard thing about being a farmer
33:03
Speaker 1: is the crops don't take a day off. The animals
33:07
Speaker 1: don't take a day off.
33:08
Speaker 4: Just because a Sunday doesn't meanly take the day off. Ever,
33:11
Speaker 4: not during busy season, which is pretty much from April
33:15
Speaker 4: to October.
33:16
Speaker 1: Alright, Well, since you may be the greatest gambler who's
33:19
Speaker 1: ever lived, according to your record, I'm looking at it
33:23
Speaker 1: right now. You had two weeks where you went two
33:27
Speaker 1: and three. One of them you got to drop. Every
33:30
Speaker 1: other week was three and two, four and one, or
33:32
Speaker 1: five and zero. The big story this year in sports
33:35
Speaker 1: betting is how frequently the favorites were covering. What was
33:40
Speaker 1: your strategy through the year with regard to favorites and
33:44
Speaker 1: making your picks every.
33:45
Speaker 4: Week, bad against bad quarterbacks. Will Levis against him every week, like,
33:52
Speaker 4: I mean, it's really proved me wrong, and he didn't.
33:56
Speaker 4: So I don't think like home field advantage meant this year.
34:01
Speaker 4: So I mean, even betting favorites, I was doing a
34:03
Speaker 4: lot of road favorites and it was paying out. I
34:06
Speaker 4: hated it. Road favorites seemed to be cash in big time.
34:10
Speaker 4: I found out after week ten that I was in
34:12
Speaker 4: the running for winning. I think I was in second
34:15
Speaker 4: place after week ten, and then I hated it. I
34:17
Speaker 4: don't know how you guys do it. It was so much
34:19
Speaker 4: stress on it and I had no money into it.
34:21
Speaker 3: That's crazy. Every week or chasing a big prize and
34:23
Speaker 3: you know that you can't. You literally couldn't have a
34:25
Speaker 3: bad week, even though you didn't know that you could.
34:28
Speaker 3: I've had a bad week, you were that far ahead.
34:30
Speaker 4: Week fourteen, my girlfriend planned a trip for us to
34:32
Speaker 4: go to Poutakana, which is awesome. Loved it, and I
34:35
Speaker 4: was more stressed about getting my picks in because I
34:37
Speaker 4: didn't know if I could get them in when I
34:39
Speaker 4: was in another country. I was gonna have wi fi
34:42
Speaker 4: if I was going to miss two weeks. We're on
34:44
Speaker 4: a beach all inclusive resort and there's this little tiny
34:47
Speaker 4: sports bar in the corner of the lobby, and I
34:50
Speaker 4: made her go in there and watch football with me
34:52
Speaker 4: as I was trying to cover it. Luckily, we just
34:55
Speaker 4: went for the end of the late games, but we
34:57
Speaker 4: were still in there for like two hours. Turns out
35:00
Speaker 4: end up going five and oh that week and picking
35:02
Speaker 4: the exact number of passing hours on Monday night, so
35:04
Speaker 4: it ended up working out pretty good. So it was
35:06
Speaker 4: a pretty good trip.
35:07
Speaker 1: Have you put yourself Have you been in that kind
35:09
Speaker 1: of position before, like as a gambler or any other
35:12
Speaker 1: scenario where you've had to carry that kind of stress,
35:15
Speaker 1: Not like this farming doesn't do that to you.
35:17
Speaker 4: No, there's a little bit more leeway doing that. I mean,
35:19
Speaker 4: you got to make great decisions, a lot of money
35:21
Speaker 4: involved in it, but it's not the stress like this
35:25
Speaker 4: or one bad week and you're out completely.
35:28
Speaker 2: When did you realize that you won it all?
35:31
Speaker 4: I knew for sure after the early games on Sunday,
35:35
Speaker 4: because I think I had a three game lead and
35:39
Speaker 4: the person a second third. They were tied. They going
35:42
Speaker 4: to cop me. I mean in gambling, I would not
35:45
Speaker 4: not saying I win until the clocket zero.
35:47
Speaker 2: Have you decided what you're doing with the money?
35:49
Speaker 4: Yet kind of end up buying some cows the other
35:52
Speaker 4: day after I won. Goodness, some of the profits will
35:56
Speaker 4: go to that. And then my other idea is I
35:59
Speaker 4: got really a big into the like sports memorabilia. When
36:02
Speaker 4: I started this, my plan was I wanted to autograph
36:05
Speaker 4: Jersey of all the Minnesota Twins retired numbers, and I'm
36:10
Speaker 4: halfway through getting them, so the part of it might
36:13
Speaker 4: go to buying the other half. I still need a
36:15
Speaker 4: Kirby Pucket Harmon Killer Brew and uh oh, can't Herbeck by.
36:20
Speaker 1: The way, let me see if I can remember ken
36:22
Speaker 1: Hrbek fourteen? Yes, man, come on, Simon.
36:27
Speaker 3: Now I do have one request, Daniel, can you please
36:30
Speaker 3: name these cows after me and Chad?
36:32
Speaker 4: Yes, these are going to be known as the either
36:36
Speaker 4: the Favorites or the Action Network Group.
36:38
Speaker 2: How many cows did you buy?
36:40
Speaker 3: Well?
36:40
Speaker 4: I bought thirty six of them, so actually you've.
36:44
Speaker 3: Got a ton of acres. Guys.
36:47
Speaker 4: This forty thousand is not going to quite cover all
36:49
Speaker 4: of them, but luckily I needed them anyway. This is
36:52
Speaker 4: just helping out.
36:53
Speaker 1: Are they cows that you're gonna, like, do you milk
36:56
Speaker 1: those cows?
36:57
Speaker 5: Like?
36:58
Speaker 3: What are beef be farm?
37:01
Speaker 4: They'll have cows and then I'll sell the steers, and
37:04
Speaker 4: then I'll I'll probably keep the heifers and then either
37:08
Speaker 4: get a ball to breed them and then I'll sell
37:09
Speaker 4: them as Brett heifers the next year, or I'll just
37:12
Speaker 4: keep them for myself and just kind of keep having calves.
37:15
Speaker 1: Whichever cows you name, Simon and Chad, let's not kill
37:19
Speaker 1: those cows. Those cows live a happy, long life just
37:27
Speaker 1: chewing on grass and whatever else cows eat and make
37:32
Speaker 1: them warm and comfortable out there in North Dakota. Congratulations
37:37
Speaker 1: and winning the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
37:41
Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest. The Cow King of North Dakota.
37:46
Speaker 1: I wish we had just tailed you the whole season, Daniel,
37:49
Speaker 1: Congratulations on a heat.
37:51
Speaker 4: Thank you.
37:52
Speaker 2: You are the hero of the Favorites contest. Congratulations, Thank you.
37:59
Speaker 1: Simon. We're gonna have two cows named after us. If
38:02
Speaker 1: nothing else, it was worth doing the contest just for that.
38:06
Speaker 1: We basically bought ourselves two cows for forty thousand dollars
38:09
Speaker 1: and he's not gonna kill him.
38:10
Speaker 2: He's gonna let him live forever.
38:12
Speaker 1: Denver at Buffalo. Buffalo is now a nine point favorite.
38:16
Speaker 1: This was a in the totals forty seven. This was
38:18
Speaker 1: a stubborn, stubborn eight and a half, one of the
38:23
Speaker 1: lines that barely budged during the week, it moved to nine.
38:29
Speaker 1: I think this morning.
38:30
Speaker 2: At bet three sixty five. So much freaking.
38:33
Speaker 1: Love for Bonnicks, so much fear of Sean Payton and
38:38
Speaker 1: what they can scheme against the Bills defense that.
38:41
Speaker 2: Has struggled late in the year.
38:44
Speaker 1: Buffalo thirtieth in EPA per pass allowed since week nine,
38:48
Speaker 1: thirty second in passing success rate.
38:52
Speaker 2: I don't know.
38:53
Speaker 1: It's not like the Broncos defense is impervious to criticism.
39:00
Speaker 1: Josh Allen has dominated man coverage, which is what the
39:03
Speaker 1: Broncos play. Bon Nicks has been much worse against zone
39:08
Speaker 1: than against man, which is what the Bills predominantly play.
39:12
Speaker 1: I still like the Bills here, It just feels like
39:15
Speaker 1: it's primed for a veteran quarterback makes all the right moves.
39:19
Speaker 2: Bon Knicks at.
39:20
Speaker 1: Some point can't have his handheld by Sean Payton in
39:24
Speaker 1: the most crucial moment of the game, and like we
39:26
Speaker 1: saw against the Bengals, will make a bad mistake.
39:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this will be all your credit if the
39:31
Speaker 3: Bills do come this number, because you're you're the one
39:33
Speaker 3: that really believes in it. I am the one that's
39:36
Speaker 3: like I wanted to be on Denver. I feel like
39:38
Speaker 3: I'm being bullied because everyone I've talked to you basically
39:40
Speaker 3: the same as you. They like the Bills here. So
39:43
Speaker 3: I just put the Bills in a ton of teasers,
39:45
Speaker 3: like you're giving me Bills at minus two and a half.
39:47
Speaker 3: That's an amazing number against a rookie quarterback making his
39:50
Speaker 3: first start on the road in the playoffs. So my
39:53
Speaker 3: fear is what you just talked about, this Bill's defense.
39:56
Speaker 3: That's the fear like that it feels like the back
39:59
Speaker 3: door will be always open. And you know, if we
40:01
Speaker 3: get Josh Allen that we know and love and he
40:06
Speaker 3: just goes full kill mode and he puts up forty points, yeah,
40:09
Speaker 3: they're covering that number. They're gonna abolutely roll this Denver team.
40:12
Speaker 3: But the fear for me is just if he has
40:16
Speaker 3: one or two bad drives, right if he just you know,
40:19
Speaker 3: doesn't doesn't perform well or just lets this team get
40:21
Speaker 3: back in it. We've kind of seen this, this Bill's team.
40:24
Speaker 3: They let bad teams backdoor them, and now they're playing
40:27
Speaker 3: against an offense that is not bad, Like this is
40:29
Speaker 3: an offense that they know how to scheme up for Bonicks.
40:32
Speaker 3: They know how to get him out wide or out
40:34
Speaker 3: in the open to either run the ball or pass
40:36
Speaker 3: it on kind of simple reads. You know, the biggest
40:39
Speaker 3: thing for this Broncos team, they very are much so
40:42
Speaker 3: Champagne's image of the Drew Brees right, the quick read
40:46
Speaker 3: three yard pass. He really has embraced that. And you
40:50
Speaker 3: know that's the key with these young quarterbacks. If you
40:52
Speaker 3: can get them into third and four, third and threes,
40:55
Speaker 3: it's so important compared to them being thirty eight. Like,
40:57
Speaker 3: you know, veteran quarterbacks can kind of get away with
40:59
Speaker 3: that stuff. Bo Knicks cannot, even though you know the
41:01
Speaker 3: numbers might back up. He's been good pushing the ball
41:03
Speaker 3: down the field. We've seen when he struggles against these
41:06
Speaker 3: good defenses because he's in the long positions right, and
41:08
Speaker 3: he tries to force a ball in terrible turnovers like
41:11
Speaker 3: he's still a rookie. So yeah, I'm I'm backing you
41:15
Speaker 3: here because you're my guy, and I do believe in
41:16
Speaker 3: this Bills team. You know, it feels like you know,
41:21
Speaker 3: it's just like it feels lined up this year for
41:23
Speaker 3: that Bills Detroit super Bowl, which you know, everyone if
41:26
Speaker 3: you're if you're, you gotta be sick in the head
41:28
Speaker 3: if you you don't want that, right, Like these two
41:30
Speaker 3: teams that have been through hell with their fan bases,
41:33
Speaker 3: it's lined up for them to make it. And this
41:35
Speaker 3: is the start of it. Like Josh, Josh Allen has
41:37
Speaker 3: struggled win loss record wise in the playoffs, where none
41:41
Speaker 3: of that, to me, is on him. Like you go
41:43
Speaker 3: back and you go through all those games. I feel
41:45
Speaker 3: like Josh Allen always put his team the best position
41:47
Speaker 3: to win, and it was either the coaching or the defense.
41:50
Speaker 3: I let him down a lot of those spots. And
41:52
Speaker 3: the hope, obviously is this year it all comes together
41:55
Speaker 3: in the perfect year that he's put together and they
41:56
Speaker 3: figured it out. But there it's the same old Bills thing, right.
42:00
Speaker 3: They still have the weaknesses on the defenses and I
42:02
Speaker 3: still have a little bit of questions about their head coach.
42:04
Speaker 3: So yeah, like I'll back them here, but I'm already
42:07
Speaker 3: thinking about next week. Like, I can't wait to really
42:10
Speaker 3: dive into next week Bill's matchup. So come on, Bills,
42:12
Speaker 3: gotta win this one. I've a lot invested in this one,
42:15
Speaker 3: and for Chad, we got a lot invested in this spread.
42:19
Speaker 1: The total in this game is forty seven. The luck
42:23
Speaker 1: rankings have this game as an under.
42:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, what scares me is Josh Allen just going off,
42:34
Speaker 2: you know.
42:36
Speaker 3: But even if he goes off, I think like even
42:38
Speaker 3: in pros I've talked to, they've been hammering this under
42:40
Speaker 3: as well. I have no opinion on this total, but
42:42
Speaker 3: if you want another professional side, it is the under.
42:45
Speaker 3: I've seen a lot of books now even before we
42:47
Speaker 3: hopped on here moving down to forty six and a half.
42:49
Speaker 3: So smart money is coming in to me when you
42:52
Speaker 3: mix in what it's going to be in Buffalo, how
42:53
Speaker 3: cold it will be. This could be the typical game
42:56
Speaker 3: Chad where the Bills win forty nothing. I know, it
42:58
Speaker 3: sounds crazy to even think about, but that's what I
43:01
Speaker 3: would be scared too, about Josh Allen going crazy. But
43:04
Speaker 3: I could see them rolling and then just the Broncos
43:07
Speaker 3: never getting off the bus. They're just totally outmatched playing
43:09
Speaker 3: against it. Probably one of the better teams they've played
43:11
Speaker 3: all season and they just kind of fall apart. So
43:14
Speaker 3: I get where you're coming from. But professionals love the under.
43:19
Speaker 3: Luck under is something that always jumps out to us.
43:21
Speaker 3: We always talk totals with the luck rankings. So if
43:24
Speaker 3: you're looking for what smart money is doing right now,
43:26
Speaker 3: the smart money from people respect right now is on
43:29
Speaker 3: the under.
43:30
Speaker 1: Green Bay at Philly. Philly is a four and a
43:33
Speaker 1: half point favorite right now. Totals forty five and a half.
43:37
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts practiced on Wednesday. He is expected to play
43:41
Speaker 1: on Sunday. No surprise. You mentioned that you've watched the
43:48
Speaker 1: tape from practice. You thought he looked really good. The
43:51
Speaker 1: line has not moved since he practiced because it was
43:54
Speaker 1: already priced in telling you right now, based on what
43:57
Speaker 1: you said and the fact that we love the Eagles here,
44:03
Speaker 1: it feels like we're in the foxhole on this one.
44:05
Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
44:07
Speaker 3: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
44:09
Speaker 3: a city. I'm a foxhole guy. All right. I love it.
44:13
Speaker 3: Let's go.
44:14
Speaker 1: We are, you know, But like it's just sort of
44:17
Speaker 1: been hanging at four and a half since we spoke
44:20
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, the total has moved down for forty seven.
44:22
Speaker 1: I would expect it to be very slow start by
44:24
Speaker 1: both teams, but I just think the Eagles are so
44:27
Speaker 1: much better than people are even recognizing because this defense
44:30
Speaker 1: is dominant.
44:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm definitely trying to thread the needle here
44:35
Speaker 3: to take in green Bay first quarter, first half. But
44:40
Speaker 3: to me, that to me feels like the smart play
44:43
Speaker 3: because of what we talk about, Like these teams kind
44:44
Speaker 3: of are what they are, right. Green Bay performers well
44:47
Speaker 3: in the first half, They're great on script. The Eagles,
44:50
Speaker 3: whatever may be the reason, even before is injured, Jalen
44:53
Speaker 3: Hurst just comes out slow. And we've seen that time
44:56
Speaker 3: and time again this season that they just do not
44:59
Speaker 3: perform well. And a lot of three and outs early
45:01
Speaker 3: on right until he gets into a rhythm, this offense
45:03
Speaker 3: doesn't really move the ball well. But Yeah, for my
45:06
Speaker 3: biggest bets of this game, it's not even close. Like
45:08
Speaker 3: I'm heavily investing this Egos team at three and a half,
45:12
Speaker 3: at four, at four and a half, still been betting
45:15
Speaker 3: it even today. I bet it again when I got
45:17
Speaker 3: up this morning, and you know, I'm just like you
45:20
Speaker 3: I'm shocked this numbers on moves off Jalen Hurts practicing,
45:23
Speaker 3: which either shows that some really smart money's on the
45:26
Speaker 3: other side on Green Bay or the books are waiting
45:29
Speaker 3: to get the clearance that he is at a concussion protocol.
45:32
Speaker 3: That's what we're all waiting for because we basically have
45:33
Speaker 3: to do with that practice like he did yesterday and
45:35
Speaker 3: wake up symptom free today, right, no headaches, no, you know,
45:40
Speaker 3: not feeling right, no headaches, any of that stuff. So
45:43
Speaker 3: you know, as we are on the air right now,
45:45
Speaker 3: I'm me and Chad, I have not seen a single
45:47
Speaker 3: thing online, no text, nothing that says otherwise. So we're
45:52
Speaker 3: gonna keep going forward. Like jale Hurts is playing this
45:54
Speaker 3: game and he is all good, So yeah for me
45:57
Speaker 3: matchup wise, I mean, I don't know if you saw
45:59
Speaker 3: that base They put out the players all Pro votes
46:03
Speaker 3: for the NFL season this season, and basically the way
46:06
Speaker 3: it works is players can vote for anybody but themselves
46:10
Speaker 3: and anyone on their team, so you know, you can
46:12
Speaker 3: vote everyone obviously in the league. And it jumped out
46:16
Speaker 3: to me that you know, the number one or I
46:18
Speaker 3: guess number two, but he's still All Pro in their mind,
46:21
Speaker 3: is Jalen Carter at the D line position and the
46:24
Speaker 3: fact that you know, Zach bron Our linebackers got so
46:27
Speaker 3: much respect as well, It's like the Eagles have the defense.
46:32
Speaker 3: I think me and Chad and like everyone else are
46:33
Speaker 3: our biggest question mark right now is is Jalen Hurt's
46:35
Speaker 3: going to show up in this game? Because I remember
46:37
Speaker 3: I gave you that stupid stat about Lamar's nember won
46:40
Speaker 3: a game when his team is up more than thirteen points.
46:43
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts has never won a playoff game where his
46:45
Speaker 3: defense is going up more than seven points, which sounds
46:47
Speaker 3: insane because he made it to the Super Bowl. But
46:50
Speaker 3: that's how that season kind of broke for them, where
46:52
Speaker 3: they they played against teams that you know, the Giants
46:55
Speaker 3: weren't really that good that year, and then they got
46:57
Speaker 3: to play a rock party who they hurt in the
46:59
Speaker 3: first quarter, and then you know, the rest is history. Obviously,
47:02
Speaker 3: I talked about the time he had the best game
47:04
Speaker 3: of his career in that Super Bowl. He was incredible.
47:07
Speaker 3: He just ran into my home. So this team feels
47:11
Speaker 3: like they're still being a little underrated here, and that
47:14
Speaker 3: if he was fully healthy coming to this game, this
47:16
Speaker 3: would be six, because how can we not talk about
47:21
Speaker 3: how serious of those injuries were to the Screen Bay team,
47:23
Speaker 3: Like they lost their number one deep threat receiver and
47:26
Speaker 3: their number one cornerback, and now they're playing against one
47:29
Speaker 3: of the best offensive football and one of the best
47:30
Speaker 3: defense in the football. Like, to me, it's it's it's
47:35
Speaker 3: maybe I'm not giving up respect to the floor. And
47:37
Speaker 3: that's what the pro other pros I've talked to, who
47:39
Speaker 3: are giving tons of respect him and just trusting him
47:41
Speaker 3: with this number. It's like you get Lafleur as a
47:43
Speaker 3: big dog like this, a four and a half dog
47:46
Speaker 3: against an Eagles team that might be a little overrated
47:50
Speaker 3: in the public eye because of all the numbers. We
47:52
Speaker 3: just talked about the fact that they were such a
47:54
Speaker 3: dominant defense and everything like that this regular season. But yeah,
47:58
Speaker 3: I feel pretty good about this Eagles team. And I
48:01
Speaker 3: look at this as a rare opportunity that if this
48:04
Speaker 3: Eagles team, you can still get them a plus seven
48:06
Speaker 3: hundred for Super Bowl. And I think right now the
48:09
Speaker 3: lines might be the odds on favorite at plus two
48:12
Speaker 3: eighty or plus two ninety. Do we really think there's
48:15
Speaker 3: that big of a difference between the Egles and the Lions.
48:17
Speaker 3: I don't. I do think this Eagles team matchup really
48:19
Speaker 3: well for them. So it is interesting. The books are
48:22
Speaker 3: kind of not showing their hand, but they are a
48:24
Speaker 3: little bit they don't. They believe in this Eagles team,
48:27
Speaker 3: but not as much as I clearly do. And they're
48:29
Speaker 3: they're kind of hedging their bets here thinking they're not
48:31
Speaker 3: gonna be a tea coming out of the East here,
48:33
Speaker 3: so or the NFC, I should say, so, yeah, I'm
48:36
Speaker 3: I'm interested in this game for that just the biggest
48:37
Speaker 3: standpoint of how Hurts looks. But it's also a true
48:40
Speaker 3: test for this defense against the little floor offensive. Mine, like,
48:43
Speaker 3: this is the ultimate test for them against the guy
48:46
Speaker 3: who you know you're giving him a lot of time
48:49
Speaker 3: to face the defense for the second time around. You
48:51
Speaker 3: expect them that have just kind of figure it out.
48:52
Speaker 3: But you know, to me, this great eight team is
48:55
Speaker 3: underachieved all season. I made that jerk with you, Chad.
48:57
Speaker 3: They won the same amount of divisional games as the
48:59
Speaker 3: Chicago Bears did this season. They went one and five.
49:01
Speaker 3: So this was a team that we joked about being
49:04
Speaker 3: to the all hype team. They lived up to it
49:07
Speaker 3: even through the Jordan Love injuries and Milik Willis coming
49:09
Speaker 3: in like they somehow found a way and they got
49:12
Speaker 3: the raw deal of being, you know, eleven win team
49:15
Speaker 3: now being the seventh seeds. So it wouldn't be wouldn't
49:18
Speaker 3: be shocked if Green Bay pulls off the upset, but
49:20
Speaker 3: I would be shocked in the sense of this is
49:21
Speaker 3: probably the best Eagles team I've seen in my lifetime,
49:24
Speaker 3: and this would be a huge disappointment getting knocked out
49:26
Speaker 3: at home in Round one.
49:28
Speaker 1: Well, look, I do think that the Eagles are being
49:32
Speaker 1: a bit undervalued defensively. So much is made of Jalen Hurts,
49:37
Speaker 1: and I think from a public perspective, too much is
49:40
Speaker 1: made of him having been in the concussion protocol and
49:43
Speaker 1: being out, and not enough is made of just how
49:48
Speaker 1: dominant this defense is. I watched a lot of freaking
49:51
Speaker 1: Eagles games this year. I know you did too. You
49:56
Speaker 1: just wouldn't want to be playing this team. I agree
49:58
Speaker 1: with you about the Lions, like I would not want
50:00
Speaker 1: to have to face the Eagles, who are so good
50:03
Speaker 1: against the run, which is what the Lions need to
50:06
Speaker 1: be great at to get their offense going. Just looking ahead,
50:09
Speaker 1: handicapping of potential NFC title game. Lafleur is the X
50:14
Speaker 1: factor here, you know, like we've talked about it. We
50:17
Speaker 1: don't like to bet against Lafleoor. So I understand the
50:20
Speaker 1: four and a half. The betting on the Packers at
50:24
Speaker 1: plus three in the first half is another bet that
50:29
Speaker 1: a lot of people have been talking about, also taking
50:32
Speaker 1: the under in the first half. The Eagles have generally
50:34
Speaker 1: been a bad team in the first half, especially bad
50:36
Speaker 1: in the first quarter. The opportunity for the Packers, because
50:40
Speaker 1: they will have been game planning those first fifteen in scripting,
50:44
Speaker 1: is better for them first quarter, first half than it
50:47
Speaker 1: is over the extended game. So that's getting a lot
50:50
Speaker 1: of attention right now. Betting the Packers at plus three,
50:53
Speaker 1: So I understand that one in entirely. That is our
50:57
Speaker 1: fox hole, which brings us to Simon our Big Balls bet.
51:05
Speaker 2: Of the Week.
51:08
Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
51:12
Speaker 1: John has the support. Great games start with great underwear,
51:15
Speaker 1: and Tommy John makes the greatest the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
51:20
Speaker 1: three point favorites over the Washington Commanders. The total is
51:25
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty and a half, highest total of the weekend.
51:29
Speaker 1: You know, it's a game featuring two average to downright
51:32
Speaker 1: bad defenses with two explosive quarterbacks who are not immune
51:36
Speaker 1: to turnovers. Yet we're going with the veteran game playing quarterback,
51:42
Speaker 1: playmaking quarterback over the rookie playmaking quarterback. I think because
51:46
Speaker 1: we think the Bucks are undervalued in this spot versus
51:51
Speaker 1: an overhype team with a dynamic, dynamic playmaker and Jayden Daniels.
51:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I get why the early money and some
51:59
Speaker 3: professional on the over ide do personally like Dender, but
52:02
Speaker 3: it's simply because it is over fifty. It feels way too,
52:05
Speaker 3: way too high for a playoff game. I know the
52:06
Speaker 3: first time they played it was what thirty seven to
52:08
Speaker 3: twenty uh Tampa. So I get the perspective of you
52:12
Speaker 3: know this, I feel like people think it's gonna be
52:14
Speaker 3: a shootout, But from my mindset, it's like the Bucks
52:18
Speaker 3: can't have this be a shootout. They need to have
52:20
Speaker 3: a big, Bucky Irving game. They need to lean on
52:22
Speaker 3: their run, keep keep the limited snaps out of Jane
52:25
Speaker 3: Daniel's hands, because that's how he gets you like. He
52:27
Speaker 3: is the kind of guy that he is, you know,
52:30
Speaker 3: one of the more dangerous guys of the balls in
52:31
Speaker 3: his hand, and the more opportunities you give him to
52:33
Speaker 3: be on the field, he's gonna get you, especially this,
52:35
Speaker 3: like you just said, this Bucks defense. You know, top
52:38
Speaker 3: bulls can do a lot of scheme and kind of
52:39
Speaker 3: give him unique looks that he might not be ready for.
52:41
Speaker 3: But eventually he'll get you, especially if he can wear
52:44
Speaker 3: your defense out, not only with his legs but using
52:47
Speaker 3: his offensive weapons. So interesting that this is so high.
52:51
Speaker 3: You know, it's rare you see a fifty, especially when
52:55
Speaker 3: it's not you know, a little more of us Josh
52:57
Speaker 3: Allen game, Like that makes more sense, not a Danel
53:00
Speaker 3: Jenden Daniels versus Baker game. But that's how great these
53:04
Speaker 3: two offense have been this season, and what you just said,
53:06
Speaker 3: how average both these defenses have been. But you know,
53:09
Speaker 3: I look at this Bucks team, and as the weeks
53:12
Speaker 3: went along, I just love it more and more, just
53:14
Speaker 3: because I am in the sports books. I am talking
53:17
Speaker 3: to Joe Public in the line, we're will waiting to
53:19
Speaker 3: cash our tickets for make bets, And it is insane
53:22
Speaker 3: how much love and respect guys have for Jane Daniels
53:25
Speaker 3: and this commander's team, and they just want to bet them, right,
53:28
Speaker 3: that's the fun, sexy side it feels like, and this
53:31
Speaker 3: Baker's side feels like, you know, this ugly, you know,
53:34
Speaker 3: no one wants to better type of team that just
53:36
Speaker 3: linked into the playoffs. And you know, just like Chad,
53:38
Speaker 3: a lot of people don't respect the NFC South. I
53:40
Speaker 3: think that's a division that not I.
53:42
Speaker 1: Don't know why you would say that. I've never done
53:44
Speaker 1: anything but love and support the NFC South. Great franchises,
53:49
Speaker 1: a lot of memories, great moments in NFL history. People
53:52
Speaker 1: really rally around those brands.
53:56
Speaker 3: But it makes even more sick when you think about,
53:59
Speaker 3: you know, poor Matt and Mitchell and these Lions fans.
54:02
Speaker 3: They've been around forever, and Tampa's here, you know what,
54:05
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks and they already got two super Bowls.
54:07
Speaker 3: That's the way it goes. Uh yeah, it's I'm looking
54:12
Speaker 3: at it right now and I just can't get over
54:13
Speaker 3: the fact that we're getting Baker and this veteran team.
54:17
Speaker 3: It's still at minus three against this Commanders. It does
54:19
Speaker 3: feel like, I know, we love this Chargers number, and
54:21
Speaker 3: I do love it, especially at two and a half,
54:23
Speaker 3: but I really really love this this Bucks team, like
54:26
Speaker 3: this right now, Ore, then this Pittsburgh line are probably
54:29
Speaker 3: is probably gonna be my biggest bet this week. Like
54:31
Speaker 3: I've pretty much all day every day, I've been finding
54:35
Speaker 3: different books to get some money down on this on
54:37
Speaker 3: this Bucks line, and for the most part, I haven't
54:40
Speaker 3: been turned away too much from bookmakers because it's been
54:44
Speaker 3: pretty heavy Commanders money. Like this is basically the public's
54:47
Speaker 3: favorite dog this week, which you know isn't shocking, right.
54:50
Speaker 3: They're a fun, exciting team. Geno Dan's is really fun.
54:52
Speaker 3: So I get where they're coming from. And the fact
54:55
Speaker 3: that you know this this could be a coin flip game, right,
54:58
Speaker 3: We'll know once it starts. But my view of it
55:02
Speaker 3: is just a rare opportunity to take on a veteran
55:04
Speaker 3: coach with a veteran quarterback who have had playoff success together.
55:07
Speaker 3: You know, just last year they rolled that Eagles team
55:10
Speaker 3: like they know how to play in these exact situations,
55:13
Speaker 3: Zack Scenaios. So yeah, let me fade this over hyped
55:16
Speaker 3: Commanders team and take this Bucks team at minus three.
55:19
Speaker 1: You know, I reviewed the show from Tuesday a little bit,
55:22
Speaker 1: and I think it sort of went over my head
55:29
Speaker 1: in the moment. How much you loved the Bucks and
55:34
Speaker 1: now you're being so clear about it, like it is
55:39
Speaker 1: a very good matchup, and the Bucks loved to blitz.
55:43
Speaker 1: Jaden Daniels not nearly as effective against the blitz. The
55:48
Speaker 1: total at fifty and a half, I like the under two.
55:51
Speaker 2: One of the main.
55:52
Speaker 1: Reasons I like it is because Baker, obviously we know,
55:56
Speaker 1: is a turnover machine. He's you know, he's going to
55:58
Speaker 1: throw an interception at some point. But Jaydon also like
56:02
Speaker 1: a few more fumbles than you'd like, only through nine picks,
56:06
Speaker 1: seven picks in the last seven weeks of the season,
56:08
Speaker 1: so like he was so accurate and picked free in
56:11
Speaker 1: the first half of the year, but started to show
56:13
Speaker 1: a little bit at the end of the year. And
56:15
Speaker 1: those turnovers are just drive killers, right, and like a
56:20
Speaker 1: lot of times they are happening in the opponent's half
56:23
Speaker 1: of the field, So then all of a sudden, instead
56:25
Speaker 1: of getting that touchdown or field goal, the other team
56:28
Speaker 1: is getting the ball and they're going on a long
56:30
Speaker 1: drive eat something more clock no points out of the
56:34
Speaker 1: drive that was headed into good direction. So I don't
56:37
Speaker 1: mind the under here at all either. At fifty and
56:39
Speaker 1: a half especially feels extraordinarily high.
56:42
Speaker 3: And we've seen it though that like even the Cowboys
56:45
Speaker 3: you can say is not that good of a run team.
56:48
Speaker 3: They were pretty much running it down this Commander's team
56:50
Speaker 3: throw and you know b Jon Robinson just a week
56:53
Speaker 3: before that having his way, Saquon having his way. So
56:56
Speaker 3: you know, I know Bucky Irving is not putting the
56:59
Speaker 3: same sentence as those other guys, for I get it.
57:02
Speaker 3: You know, he's the kind of new to the league
57:03
Speaker 3: and he's not that type of talent. But if you
57:05
Speaker 3: really break down the numbers and look at what Bucky's
57:07
Speaker 3: done this season, he is a top ten running back
57:09
Speaker 3: in my opinion. Like, this guy is a workhorse, and
57:12
Speaker 3: that to me is going to be the game plan
57:14
Speaker 3: for the Bucks. Like for everything I read from their
57:16
Speaker 3: beat writers, and you know, I wish I had sourced
57:18
Speaker 3: the inside I unfortunately don't. I don't really have any
57:21
Speaker 3: connections down there in Tampa. But it feels like the
57:24
Speaker 3: way guys are talking about it's going into it be
57:26
Speaker 3: a heavy Bucky Irving game and they're gonna lean on
57:28
Speaker 3: that run, just keeping the ball out Jane Daniel's hands.
57:30
Speaker 3: So and what you just talked about, they need to
57:32
Speaker 3: protect Baker from himself sometimes right, Like Baker can't help
57:35
Speaker 3: himself with turnover. You just can't have those stupid turnovers
57:37
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, like that's going to cost you. So
57:40
Speaker 3: that's another reason why I like this under so much
57:42
Speaker 3: is it just feels like it's going to be a
57:44
Speaker 3: run heavy game from this Bucks team.
57:46
Speaker 2: Simon.
57:47
Speaker 1: Here at the Favorites, we know that feedback is a gift,
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58:58
Speaker 1: Last game on the board Minnesota visiting the La Rams.
59:03
Speaker 2: The line has moved from two and a half to
59:04
Speaker 2: one and a half.
59:05
Speaker 1: It finally buzzed a little bit last night early this morning.
59:09
Speaker 1: Wise Guy's definitely coming in on the Rams. The number
59:12
Speaker 1: is down to one, it's down to half in some places.
59:15
Speaker 1: Total is forty eight. I think at the end of
59:19
Speaker 1: the day, we don't like to bet against Matthew Stafford.
59:22
Speaker 1: We're getting him at a dog at Home as a
59:24
Speaker 1: dog at home.
59:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's another game that I've I've taken the
59:29
Speaker 3: under on. It's it's all about what my mindset is,
59:31
Speaker 3: my gamescript mine of this fills that type of game
59:34
Speaker 3: that is going to be run heavy for this Rams team,
59:38
Speaker 3: and we've kind of seen it now with this blind
59:40
Speaker 3: Foy's defense. That's how you can attack them, like you
59:43
Speaker 3: really can attack them through the run because the way
59:45
Speaker 3: he kind of plays their style of defense. And you know,
59:48
Speaker 3: we joked about it like Williams is one of the
59:51
Speaker 3: best running backs in football, especially when you get down
59:53
Speaker 3: in the red zone. The guys are scoring machine. And
59:55
Speaker 3: Stafford to me, since that, you know, Lions game or
59:58
Speaker 3: was it Bills, I always keep next it up. I
1:00:00
Speaker 3: believe it was the Bills that they beat. He put
1:00:03
Speaker 3: up whatever it was, forty four or forty two points
1:00:05
Speaker 3: against that team. Since then, the offense has not been
1:00:08
Speaker 3: the same, right, They've been struggling. They've just kind of
1:00:10
Speaker 3: been a different team. I can't lie to you, Chad.
1:00:13
Speaker 3: I don't know what I'm gonna get here from Stafford,
1:00:15
Speaker 3: Like it's it's been different. Maybe he is. He's got
1:00:17
Speaker 3: a major injury I don't know about, and maybe that
1:00:21
Speaker 3: week off really helped that injury, and he'll bounce back
1:00:24
Speaker 3: and this is the perfect situation for him. Pooka and
1:00:27
Speaker 3: Cooper cup like, this is a great matchup for them
1:00:29
Speaker 3: against the secondary of the Minnesota Vikings. But I think
1:00:34
Speaker 3: it comes back to that evanstat right about quarterbacks making
1:00:38
Speaker 3: their first start, Like this is Sam Darnold's first start,
1:00:41
Speaker 3: and we saw last week in a game where he
1:00:44
Speaker 3: had the weight of the world, the future of his
1:00:46
Speaker 3: career on him. He crumbled. He did. He melted in
1:00:49
Speaker 3: that game. Even when I went back and watched it.
1:00:52
Speaker 3: He missed so many opportunities and so many throws that
1:00:55
Speaker 3: he's just been nailing all season. Like we talked about it,
1:00:57
Speaker 3: he's had one of the best seasons you know, ever
1:01:01
Speaker 3: put together by a Vikings quarterback. Like he really was
1:01:04
Speaker 3: the perfect general for that offense. And you know, Koc
1:01:07
Speaker 3: had ultimate confidence in him. Like the place you draw up,
1:01:10
Speaker 3: it was like, Okay, you got to take this hit here,
1:01:13
Speaker 3: but you're going to get a touchdown or free release
1:01:15
Speaker 3: all one of your receivers here. Like if you can
1:01:17
Speaker 3: just hang in the pocket, let the route develop, it's
1:01:20
Speaker 3: going to be there. He just was not hitting that
1:01:22
Speaker 3: last week, and you saw that he got flustered right
1:01:24
Speaker 3: after you got a couple of hits to the mouth.
1:01:26
Speaker 3: Isn't that what the Rams are going to do here?
1:01:28
Speaker 3: Aren't they just going to bring a ton of pressure
1:01:29
Speaker 3: and be like, Okay, it worked last week. Let's see
1:01:31
Speaker 3: if he figured it out in a week or if
1:01:33
Speaker 3: this is what he is, if he is going to
1:01:35
Speaker 3: struggle against it. Because early in the year he was
1:01:37
Speaker 3: great against the Blitz and it was alarm and see
1:01:40
Speaker 3: how bad he was last week. So yeah, this is
1:01:43
Speaker 3: a game where it me and you could get burned. Chad.
1:01:44
Speaker 3: We could be overreacting to last week and saym Darnold
1:01:47
Speaker 3: a struggles and underreacting to Matthew Stafford in this Rams
1:01:51
Speaker 3: team down the stretcher that they have not been the
1:01:53
Speaker 3: same offense. But to me, this is really about trusting
1:01:56
Speaker 3: the numbers and the trends that everything points to this
1:01:59
Speaker 3: Rams team and you're still getting great value as them
1:02:01
Speaker 3: as a dog, like I have him as over a
1:02:03
Speaker 3: one point favorite. We're still getting plus one and a
1:02:06
Speaker 3: half at a couple of books out there, and I knows
1:02:08
Speaker 3: it sounds like a big deal, but every point matters
1:02:10
Speaker 3: in the playoffs. It is a big deal. So yeah,
1:02:13
Speaker 3: to me at plus one and a half, I still
1:02:14
Speaker 3: love the value on this Rams team, and yeah, I'm
1:02:16
Speaker 3: gonna be betting them in the under here.
1:02:18
Speaker 1: So this is a luck over a lot of expected regression.
1:02:26
Speaker 1: Two more scoring for total teams. Who obviously we saw
1:02:31
Speaker 1: the Vikings not score very much in Week eighteen against
1:02:34
Speaker 1: the Lions, and the Rams have been scoring less and
1:02:38
Speaker 1: less since that game against the Bills. So Doctor Nick
1:02:41
Speaker 1: and crew like this as a luck over Simon. You're fading,
1:02:46
Speaker 1: Doctor Nick. How does that make you feel?
1:02:48
Speaker 3: It's not good? Maybe I'll do the cheat that doctor
1:02:50
Speaker 3: Nick does. I'll just do the first half. I'll go
1:02:53
Speaker 3: first half over.
1:02:55
Speaker 2: Coward.
1:02:56
Speaker 3: Yeah right, all right.
1:02:59
Speaker 1: So the Rams, for some reason, are the game that
1:03:01
Speaker 1: I feel the least confident about, as I like the number,
1:03:08
Speaker 1: I like them much more as a dog than a favorite.
1:03:10
Speaker 1: But essentially, if you're betting them at one and a half,
1:03:13
Speaker 1: you're you're saying you expect them to win the game.
1:03:16
Speaker 2: And I do.
1:03:17
Speaker 1: But I still look at this and like, of all these,
1:03:21
Speaker 1: I feel best about I think the Bucks and the Chargers,
1:03:25
Speaker 1: and worst about.
1:03:29
Speaker 2: The Rams and the Bills.
1:03:31
Speaker 3: It's fair And I told you though, if you're feeling
1:03:33
Speaker 3: a little cowardly, throw them a teaser. Brother, getting the
1:03:36
Speaker 3: Rams with.
1:03:36
Speaker 1: The way Rams and Bills are a perfect teaser. So
1:03:38
Speaker 1: if that's what I'm feeling, that, that's what I'm gonna do.
1:03:42
Speaker 1: That's what I That's what I'm gonna do.
1:03:43
Speaker 3: All right.
1:03:44
Speaker 1: Each week we give out a two team money line
1:03:47
Speaker 1: dog parlay. This week it's a little bit different just
1:03:50
Speaker 1: because there's fewer dog options to really consider that three
1:03:53
Speaker 1: six five is going to boost the odds and highlight
1:03:56
Speaker 1: this money line parlay to their site all week and
1:04:00
Speaker 1: under both promo pages. Remember, both games are eligible for
1:04:03
Speaker 1: bet three six fives early pay out promo, where your
1:04:06
Speaker 1: money line pick gets marked as a win if either
1:04:09
Speaker 1: team takes a seventeen point lead, even if they are
1:04:11
Speaker 1: loose and they up losing.
1:04:13
Speaker 2: If you want to.
1:04:13
Speaker 1: Bet this better at bet three six five, this week's
1:04:16
Speaker 1: boosted probabay is going to be the Rams and the Bucks.
1:04:20
Speaker 1: Find the boost under either the Rams or Bucks game
1:04:23
Speaker 1: pages on bet three six five. I don't know if
1:04:26
Speaker 1: we can do a money line underdog round robin, Like,
1:04:31
Speaker 1: what are you gonna do? Seilers, Rams, Commanders, Texans, Broncos,
1:04:38
Speaker 1: Like No, it's definitely definitely the week you do the favorites.
1:04:41
Speaker 3: I've had a couple of fans reach out that thing
1:04:43
Speaker 3: that they've been saying, like, you know, since week ten
1:04:45
Speaker 3: and eleven, they've just been going the other way because
1:04:46
Speaker 3: our money a line on the Robins obviously have been
1:04:49
Speaker 3: dead on arrival. Dogs have just not been winning out right,
1:04:52
Speaker 3: So I mean, if you want to go the other way, chat,
1:04:53
Speaker 3: it's a fun week to do the favorite It's like
1:04:55
Speaker 3: you take the Eagles money line, take the Bucks money line,
1:04:58
Speaker 3: take the Rams in there, charge Like, if you want
1:05:01
Speaker 3: to stay away from the high ones like the Ravens
1:05:03
Speaker 3: and the Bills, I still feel pretty good about those
1:05:06
Speaker 3: ones who just gave out. Obviously. You know, we only
1:05:10
Speaker 3: love one road team early this week, and that's the Chargers.
1:05:12
Speaker 3: But this week actually tends to be pretty good for
1:05:15
Speaker 3: the Dogs, right historically. I don't know if Evan has
1:05:17
Speaker 3: the numbers on it, but it feels like normally dogs
1:05:20
Speaker 3: do cover on Wildcard weekend, like this is usually a
1:05:23
Speaker 3: good weekend for them, so money line is not so much.
1:05:26
Speaker 3: But if you are just throwing them into a round
1:05:28
Speaker 3: robin and taking the number, that's fine too.
1:05:31
Speaker 1: Well, then I'm really thrilled that I'm going all in
1:05:33
Speaker 1: on the Chargers and the Bucks and the Bills.
1:05:37
Speaker 2: Super excited about that.
1:05:39
Speaker 1: And when we bring Evan on, he's going to make
1:05:41
Speaker 1: me feel even worse. What are your biggest bets right now?
1:05:45
Speaker 1: Bucks and Steelers?
1:05:46
Speaker 3: Bucks and Steelers, definitely, and then obviously teasers. I just
1:05:52
Speaker 3: been doing a ton of teasers. Rams. I told you
1:05:55
Speaker 3: when the Chargers got down to two and a half,
1:05:57
Speaker 3: I fucked the loong. I went through the zero, took
1:06:01
Speaker 3: the charge off the plus three and a half, and
1:06:03
Speaker 3: uh yeah, Bills down at two and a half. It
1:06:05
Speaker 3: just feels like that's a gift. So yeah, those those
1:06:07
Speaker 3: are definitely my biggest bets right now, just straight bets
1:06:09
Speaker 3: Tampa and Pittsburgh on their numbers.
1:06:13
Speaker 2: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.
1:06:18
Speaker 4: Let's play scooch Roulette.
1:06:23
Speaker 1: Who should we go with? For scooch Roulette into the playoffs?
1:06:27
Speaker 1: You get the first choice since you were the season
1:06:29
Speaker 1: long winner.
1:06:31
Speaker 3: Thanks, got it. I love I love them all. I
1:06:36
Speaker 3: guess I will go with I gotta do it. I
1:06:40
Speaker 3: gotta go with my boy Baker. I'll take Baker, myse
1:06:43
Speaker 3: I kind.
1:06:44
Speaker 2: Of wanted to take Tampa.
1:06:46
Speaker 1: Darn you, all right, you're taking Tampa, then, I guess
1:06:52
Speaker 1: I'm gonna.
1:06:52
Speaker 2: Go with the Chargers.
1:06:54
Speaker 3: There you go.
1:06:55
Speaker 1: I have to all right, before we get out of here,
1:06:58
Speaker 1: let's bring in Director of Research, Evan Abrams for the
1:07:01
Speaker 1: final word.
1:07:02
Speaker 2: Evan the last word With Evan Abrams.
1:07:07
Speaker 4: We're finished talking.
1:07:08
Speaker 5: Honestly, I have so much to kind of catch up
1:07:11
Speaker 5: here on because you've asked me a bunch of questions.
1:07:13
Speaker 5: So I'm going to attempt to go through a bunch
1:07:15
Speaker 5: of different things here, and you guys can stop me
1:07:16
Speaker 5: down whenever you want. So you were talking about like Josh,
1:07:21
Speaker 5: Lamar and Hurts, obviously all three at home this weekend.
1:07:24
Speaker 5: Interesting enough, I kind of grouped them together because they
1:07:27
Speaker 5: all are kind of looking for still that super Bowl win,
1:07:30
Speaker 5: all trying to get there. Obviously, Hurts has been there
1:07:32
Speaker 5: there as a group eight and five straight up at
1:07:34
Speaker 5: home in the playoffs, but one in seven away from home,
1:07:38
Speaker 5: which means nothing for this weekend, but also says that
1:07:41
Speaker 5: they just can't get that big one to get there.
1:07:43
Speaker 5: I found that kind of interesting. The second one I
1:07:46
Speaker 5: wanted to bring to you, as Simon just alluded to,
1:07:49
Speaker 5: since twenty seventeen, underdogs fifty two and thirty four in
1:07:52
Speaker 5: the playoffs against the spread sixty one percent seventeen percent ROI.
1:07:56
Speaker 5: But wildcard round they're actually twenty four and twelve sixty
1:08:00
Speaker 5: seven percent even BETTEROW thirty. So yeah, underdogs have had
1:08:04
Speaker 5: an advantage in this round. Let's keep going with another
1:08:07
Speaker 5: one Simon mentioned here, So we talked about the first
1:08:09
Speaker 5: playoff starts, teams making quarterbacks making a first playoff start
1:08:14
Speaker 5: against a quarterback with experience nineteen and thirty seven against
1:08:17
Speaker 5: the spread, nineteen and thirty eight straight up since two
1:08:20
Speaker 5: thousand and two, and basically the same numbers on the
1:08:23
Speaker 5: road eleven and twenty one straight up. So that's Bonnicks,
1:08:26
Speaker 5: jayde Daniels, and Sam Darnold this weekend. Let me go
1:08:30
Speaker 5: to what Chad mentioned, so Chargers with this third straight
1:08:34
Speaker 5: road game. So yes, teams having their third consecutive road
1:08:38
Speaker 5: game are thirty nine percent straight up since two thousand
1:08:41
Speaker 5: and three. But it is important to note favorites are
1:08:45
Speaker 5: twenty four and eleven in that spot, including three and
1:08:49
Speaker 5: one in the playoffs. Now, Chad, I took you right.
1:08:53
Speaker 2: That is right. We're good. We're gonna leave it there.
1:08:56
Speaker 3: We're gonna leave there.
1:08:58
Speaker 2: I feel like we're good to say what you want
1:09:01
Speaker 2: to say. I will say, this is what you want
1:09:03
Speaker 2: to say.
1:09:04
Speaker 5: You were talking about good coaches. So I look at
1:09:07
Speaker 5: it from like probably two points of view. I just
1:09:09
Speaker 5: took every coach who's won a Super Bowl of the list.
1:09:12
Speaker 5: They're twenty one and eighteen straight up in the spot
1:09:14
Speaker 5: as a road favorite. Third gamer later, so above five hundred.
1:09:18
Speaker 5: I think it proves your point. We can move on
1:09:19
Speaker 5: from there. I think an interesting aspect that you guys mentioned.
1:09:23
Speaker 1: His great confirmation bias fucking best.
1:09:27
Speaker 5: I really spend the entire show trying to make sure
1:09:29
Speaker 5: you guys look smarter at the end. So let's just
1:09:31
Speaker 5: keep going with that. So hew say Flowers, I think
1:09:36
Speaker 5: his impact on the field is worth discussing here. So
1:09:38
Speaker 5: twenty four point one percent of the Ravens target target
1:09:42
Speaker 5: share this year, which is almost ten percent higher than
1:09:45
Speaker 5: the second player on the team, which would be Mark Andrews.
1:09:47
Speaker 5: And I think the biggest adjustment Lamar might have to
1:09:50
Speaker 5: go through if Flowers isn't on the field. He has
1:09:53
Speaker 5: eighty nine first read or designed targets just for Flowers
1:09:57
Speaker 5: this year. That's forty more than the other guy, Mark
1:10:01
Speaker 5: Andrews on the team. So without Flowers, I just think
1:10:04
Speaker 5: he's going to have to adjust his first and second
1:10:06
Speaker 5: reads a little bit, so that could be interesting.
1:10:09
Speaker 3: I did look this up. So Tomlin zero to.
1:10:12
Speaker 5: Five straight up in the playoffs as a dog of
1:10:14
Speaker 5: three or more, he is the only coach with five
1:10:17
Speaker 5: losses and no wins since two thousand in that spot.
1:10:20
Speaker 2: So what about against the spread in that spot?
1:10:22
Speaker 5: I can look in a second, but the nine and
1:10:24
Speaker 5: a half is huge for him. But I have that
1:10:27
Speaker 5: in my article so I can follow up. Let's keep
1:10:30
Speaker 5: going here for a second. You guys mentioned Pittsburgh and
1:10:33
Speaker 5: Baltimore and Baltimore having a lead. This one absolutely blew
1:10:37
Speaker 5: me away. So historically it's been difficult for Baltimore to
1:10:40
Speaker 5: hold the lead against Pittsburgh. Since twenty twenty, the Ravens
1:10:43
Speaker 5: are two and seven straight up against the Steelers when
1:10:46
Speaker 5: leading at any point in the game. They are two
1:10:48
Speaker 5: and five straight up when leading by seven plus points,
1:10:51
Speaker 5: which is just.
1:10:52
Speaker 3: Unbelievable to me.
1:10:54
Speaker 5: So the narrative of them getting ahead and holding it
1:10:57
Speaker 5: hasn't been great before. But obviously, different quarterbacks, different situations.
1:11:01
Speaker 5: I will give you two more here. So you guys
1:11:03
Speaker 5: like the Eagles and something that I was kind of
1:11:06
Speaker 5: surprised by. So under Nick Siriani, Philly is twenty four
1:11:10
Speaker 5: and two straight up, seventeen seven and two against the spread,
1:11:13
Speaker 5: is a home favorite when leading by seven plus points
1:11:15
Speaker 5: at any point in the game, so really not giving
1:11:17
Speaker 5: away the lead at all, and when that opponent is
1:11:20
Speaker 5: above five hundred in that spot. Sirianni is fourteen and
1:11:23
Speaker 5: oh straight up and twelve and two against the spread,
1:11:25
Speaker 5: so getting a lead shouldn't be an issue in this one,
1:11:28
Speaker 5: at least not historically. And then I know you guys
1:11:30
Speaker 5: like the Rams, so this is just one spot and
1:11:34
Speaker 5: the Rams are the only team in this.
1:11:36
Speaker 3: Spot this week.
1:11:37
Speaker 5: So teams that become smaller underdogs, so basically open plus four,
1:11:42
Speaker 5: close plus three are actually forty five and twenty sixty
1:11:46
Speaker 5: nine percent against the spread over the last twenty years
1:11:48
Speaker 5: in the playoffs, including fifty five and twelve and a
1:11:51
Speaker 5: six point teaser. That is just the Rams right now,
1:11:54
Speaker 5: as every other line has held steady or gotten higher.
1:11:58
Speaker 2: I gotta say that's some of your best stuff the season.
1:12:01
Speaker 3: Wow, I'm peaking loved it right right time here.
1:12:03
Speaker 2: This is PERP loved it.
1:12:05
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1:13:03
Speaker 1: in the chat if evan.
1:13:04
Speaker 5: Four and one against the spread, I have, oh my God,
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Speaker 5: Lou failing to cover the spread by six points per game.
1:13:11
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of
1:13:14
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1:13:17
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1:13:19
Speaker 2: To recap the first four wild Card.
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