Latest / The PatteFacts: A College Football Show / Ep. 136: College Football First Round Matchups Breakdown

Transcript

Ep. 136: College Football First Round Matchups Breakdown · The PatteFacts: A College Football Show

0:02
Durant makes his move, spins in the pace turn, puts it up, puts
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it in John Morant knocks it down.
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Chioza. Here we go, episode 136 of the
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Paddafax, streaming on Apple Podcast, Spotify, and wherever
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you get your podcast from. It is December 18th, 2025.
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Thank you so much for tuning in. I'm William Patterson.
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All right, back for another edition of TPF.
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And this time around around, we are just a couple of hours away,
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about a day away from the College Football Playoff
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officially kicking off. And that means we've got to get
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you ready so that when you're watching the game, you know who
1:14
is who, you know what the storylines are, you know what's
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going on because you listen to the Paddafax, the go to spot for
1:23
college football. It has become the go to spot for
1:25
college football this season. And I would be doing everyone a
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disservice if I did not if I did not come on here and talk about
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these great matchups. We've got four of them, one on
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Friday, 3 on Saturday. We'll tell you everything you
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need to know for this weekend. So real quick, as we always do,
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my housekeeping notes, make sure you're following at the Padifax
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on Instagram, the fastest growing college football page on
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Instagram. Incredible, incredible growth
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this season and we only continue to get bigger and bigger.
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Had our first bowl collab this week.
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We collab with the Xbox Bowl. Really appreciate those guys out
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in Frisco, TX for giving us our first bowl collab.
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Really enjoyed working with them.
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Arkansas State, our first team collab as we went in, in
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addition to the Xbox Bowl on a couple of posts there.
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So again, folks doing a lot of great work, doing a lot of great
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growth and a lot of that is because of you.
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But if you're listening and you are already following, make sure
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And then at TP facts on sports on TikTok at the Padifax on
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Twitter. And if you're a gambler out
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there, want to know my action for this week, make sure to
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follow on Twitter. You'll get the first
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notification when we have our pics ready to go.
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So we'll talk about all four of these games in chronological
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order. We'll start with Friday and then
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we'll go to Saturday. All four games getting some
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coverage this week, so really looking forward to that.
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We'll kick things off. I want to begin with this our
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First things first topic #9 Alabama at #8 Oklahoma.
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And this one is on Friday at 8:00 PM Eastern Time on ABC.
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The Tide 1 1/2 point favorites at the moment, the total 40 1/2.
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That's pretty telling of the type of defenses you're going to
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see in the type of offenses that you're going to witness as well.
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So I don't necessarily bat an eye at that because I think
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that's right on the dot of what this game is going to be like.
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And before we get into those matchups, I do want to talk
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about a, per a couple of pregame storylines here.
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This is one of two first round rematches in this first round,
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Oklahoma and Alabama, Tulane and Ole Miss.
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The two rematches from the regular season that we now get
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in the first round. And Oklahoma upset Alabama on
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the road on November 15th and that was one of the better best
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bets of the season. We had Oklahoma plus 5 1/2 in
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the and the money line in that one because I had not liked what
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I had seen from Alabama's offense as of late heading into
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that game and heading into this one Friday, I can't say the same
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has changed. I can't say that this is an
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Alabama offense playing with a whole lot of confidence right
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now. We'll talk about that here in a
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little bit, but this is the third match up between these two
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teams in the last 13 months. Remember last year, the reason
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why Alabama could not make the College Football Playoff is
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because they lost to Jackson Arnold and Oklahoma last season.
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Now I throw Jackson Arnold's name in there as a little bit of
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a coupon. It was really just the three
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interception performance from Jalen Melro at the time.
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But regardless, Oklahoma has been Alabama three times in the
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last 13 months in college football.
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That's a sentence that I don't think many or excuse me, twice,
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I should say, has beat them twice in the last 13 months.
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Not a statement that I think many would expect to hear.
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But now they can go for 1/3 on Friday when they host the Tide
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in Norman. And we'll begin with the first
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match up here that I think is significant.
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And this is going to be Alabama's sputtering offense
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versus an Oklahoma defense that is one of the best in the
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country. Now, I know I haven't done these
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episodes and podcasts as much as I have went to this season.
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But if you listen to me on Fox Sports Knoxville, I talk about
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this almost every week when we talk about these teams.
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Play Oklahoma's defense, one of the best in the country, very
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versatile, dynamic, a lot of different guys that can do
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different things, whether it's an arm Mason Thomas that can be
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one of the best edge rudgers and edge rushers in the country on
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any given day or also drop back and, you know, defend a tight
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end, whatever it may be. A very versatile defensive
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player. Leucanicki, another guy at
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linebacker that can do a lot of different things.
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Eli Bowen was one of my favorite DBS in the country heading into
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the season. So there are a lot of guys on
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this Oklahoma defense that can do a lot of different things,
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and that's because Brent Venables really put a lot of
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emphasis this offseason and just focusing on that side of the
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football. We know that he faced a fair
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amount of pressure heading into this season in terms of needing
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to have a successful year. And one of the big points for
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him in the offseason was I need to get back to defense.
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Defense is what led me to this place.
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You know, defense is what led him to the College Football
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Playoffs when he was with Clemson and they had really good
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defenses. And that's what got him the job
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at Oklahoma because he was one of the top assistants.
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He focuses on defense and they've had a lot more success
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this year with Ben Arbuckle taking over the offensive
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reigns. Now, the offense, a different
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story. We'll talk about that later.
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But defensively, this is one of the best groups in the country.
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A top 10 defense that that does a great job of getting to the
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quarterback is one of the notes I want to make sure to cover.
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This is a group that has 41 sacks on the season, which is
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tied for most in the FBS, tied for first, and they get off the
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field on 3rd down, which is really key in a match up like
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this where it's a game of inches.
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The margin of error is very thin.
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You need to get off the field to give your opportunities to a
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quarterback. And John Metier that is shown at
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his best can be a really, really good quarterback and can extend
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games, extend drives. You need to get off the field on
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3rd down so you can give them the opportunity to do so.
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And they have a 29% conversion rate allowed this season, which
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is another really, really strong number.
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And it holds opponents to just 13.9 points per game.
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That's one of the top defenses in the country in terms of
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opponent scoring. So those numbers all jump off
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the page and are an example of a group that is very well coached
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but also has the talent in place.
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And I mentioned our Mason Thomas a little bit earlier.
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I want to talk more about him because he's one of my favorite
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defensive players in college football this season.
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Just a wrecking machine on the line of scrimmage.
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And he's been banged up over the last couple of weeks.
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Hoping to get him back at full health for this one.
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But he's got 6 1/2 sacks, 9 1/2 tackles for loss in just nine
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games this year. So he's averaging about a sack a
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game and a tackle for loss of game.
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That's a guy that's constantly getting in the backfield and
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making an impact and he was just a semi finalist for the Ben Ark
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award and that goes to the nation's top defensive player.
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He's demonstrated that throughout the season.
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As I mentioned, missed the last three games of the year due to
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that quad injury, but my last memory of them in person was him
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ripping it out of Joey Aguilar's hands in the Tennessee, Oklahoma
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match up in early October. I guess it was the first day of
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November, excuse me, early November, not October, it was
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late October. Early November is the day after
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Halloween and our Mason Thomas house that thing for 70 yards
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and totally flipped that game on its head after that.
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He's a type of game-winning player that you need and
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Oklahoma's got plenty of them. They've got plenty of these
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versatile guys, but our Mason Thomas is one of the best in the
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country. And the fact that he's going to
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be back for this one is really key.
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And I talk about that Oklahoma defense so much because they are
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that good. And I don't want to take away
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from the fact that this Alabama offense is not playing well
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right now to let that deter you from thinking, yeah, this is
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just going to be, you know, an Oklahoma group that benefits
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from a really nice, a really nice situation for them in terms
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of an Alabama offense not coming in with a whole lot of momentum.
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So that's why I wanted to start with Oklahoma.
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Let's switch to Alabama's offense because this is a group
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that's not playing good football right now.
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I was in Atlanta 2 weeks ago for the SEC championship.
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My eyes began to hurt watching this Alabama offense try to
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operate. They had no success up against
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the Georgia defense. That is not the Georgia defense
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we have known of old. Now, this is still a good group,
10:30
but they're not like the Georgia defense that you've come to
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expect under Kirby Smart. And Alabama in that game goes
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for 209 yards in total -3 rushing yards and a turnover.
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Alabama's rush offense is horrible folks.
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Ranks 121st in college football at 3.3 yards a carry, 123rd and
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yards a game with one O 3.8. That's a big liability of this
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team. It has been throughout the
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season, but I think it could come up big once again in this
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one because Ty Simpson, the guy that was dazzling through the
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middle part of the season, granted, they were getting
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really good wins and I, I say dazzling because he was, I mean,
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he wasn't turning the ball over. They beat Missouri, they beat
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Vanderbilt, they beat Tennessee. It was a very impressive run.
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But over the last five games, he's not been the same player
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for the season and his completion percentage is 64.3%.
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The last three games against SEC teams, 56% completion rate.
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And one of Simpson's best traits during that mid season stretch
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was again, he was protecting the football against Florida State.
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He didn't make great decisions, turned the ball over, should
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have ran for it on 1/4 and seven, but decided to throw it.
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That was damn near a turnover in itself.
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He was making better decisions in the middle of the season.
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He has not been doing so as of late.
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In the last four games he's got 4 interceptions and that is also
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including a game against an FCS opponent.
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So when I look at this match up, I think it's very significant
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because this is a sputtering offense.
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They're not playing well and it's hard to find where they're
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going to be able to get any run game.
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Now, Jam Miller has been on every injury report this season
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possible because he's constantly been banged up.
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But I don't even know if he's going to be the difference in
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terms of finding any sort of run game here because they ran with
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Hill last week or I guess last outing against Georgia.
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And he was not good as a pass catcher and was not good and
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trying to find the open lanes. How much is that is on the
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offensive line? How much of that is on Georgia's
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defensive line? I guess we'll have to see when a
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Jam Miller gets out there, but I read those numbers off for the
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season. This is not a group that's
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running the football at a very good rate right now.
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So my worry here is that I'm worried that Alabama's offense
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is not there right now. They're just not.
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Go back to LSU, go back to Auburn, go back to Oklahoma.
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The last time we saw these two teams play, they're just not in
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rhythm right now and they've got the receivers don't don't even
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think about that because they do during Bernard, Isaiah Horton,
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Ryan Williams, and I list that in that order because I think
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that's the order of importance and reliability.
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Ryan Williams just hasn't been reliable, has the highest drop
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rate of any Alabama wide receiver since 2016 and that was
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Calvin Ridley. So there are flaws on this team
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and they have been emphasized over the last week and I am
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worried. I am worried about Alabama's
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offense. Heading into Friday.
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Ty Simpson once again completed just 56% of his passes in the
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last three SEC games. Not taking care of the football.
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Oklahoma's defense is versatile. It is predicated on getting to
14:08
the quarterback with guys like our Mason Thomas making you
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one-dimensional. Alabama is already 1 dimensional
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with the way this team has had to play over the last couple of
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weeks. The rushing attack has never
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been there throughout the season.
14:21
They rank 123rd in that aspect. Alabama has not played their
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best offensive football in the last month and that worries me
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going up against an Oklahoma defense like this.
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Now, it's not all sunshine and rainbows for this Oklahoma team,
14:39
however, because their method of winning I think is a big issue
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offensively. John Mater began the season
14:49
really, really strong. I I liked Mater a lot.
14:51
Go back to that Michigan game and he's making throws on the
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run that not a lot of kids in college football can do.
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But he has shouldered much of the burden for this team and
15:01
this offense kind of goes as he goes.
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And for a guy like that, that that's talent, you know, that
15:06
has all that talent that usually works.
15:08
But he has not been the same player since that infamous
15:13
injury in the beginning of the season that involved Doctor Shin
15:16
and a Chipotle worker that was a student and all that hoopla that
15:20
went on right before the Texas game.
15:23
It was all fun and games. But the problem is he hasn't
15:25
been much fun since then. He hasn't been the same type of
15:28
fun as he was in the first four games before the injury.
15:31
So he's going to have to shoulder a lot of the burden
15:35
here to try and make things work offensively for this Oklahoma
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group because they're kind of the same way.
15:41
They don't have that big of an offensive run game.
15:44
A lot of that comes from John Matier, who is very talented
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when he gets out in space, but he's only thrown for 2500 yards
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and a lot of that was early in the season, bulk of those
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numbers, but he does lead the team in rushing attempts.
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I mentioned the running backs, they whiffed on a guy in Jay not
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out of the transfer portal from Cal was supposed to be one of
16:04
the best transfers in the class has done absolutely nothing.
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Matir, a guy that was a dual threat quarterback at Wazoo, his
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offensive coordinator at Wazoo now at Oklahoma and Ben
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Arbuckle, he's been allowed to run the ball a lot this year
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with 130 attempts and has accounted for 19 touchdowns this
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season as well. So you know that you've got a
16:26
threat there at least. But I think the big thing for
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Oklahoma being able to really open this thing up is finding
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that complementary run game production.
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And then also you got to get these receivers involved.
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You haven't had a ton of production as of late from them
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against quality opponents. I know they put up 379 yards of
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total offense against LSU, but I I look at like games that matter
16:51
still where like everyone still bought in.
16:53
And that Missouri game was kind of weird.
16:56
Like Oklahoma for the most part, kind of just kept enough
17:00
distance away from the Tigers. Their defense was the reason why
17:04
they came out on top of the offense had like 88 yards of
17:10
their 100 and they had like 212 for the game, like 212 total
17:15
yards for the game. And 88 of them came on one play.
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So it's like I worry about Oklahoma in their sustainability
17:22
with the way they win because Oklahoma's averaging 35 1/2 or
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excuse me, 353.7 yards per game, but it's only eclipsed more than
17:35
325 yards three times in their last seven.
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So they're not getting it done against these top level teams.
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They didn't did not do it against Tennessee.
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They did not do it against Missouri.
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Some of these top 25 bubble teams they went up against,
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they've not been able to have the same type of production
17:52
offensively. And that worries me.
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It, it's, I don't think it's a sustainable method of winning.
17:57
And the rushing attack, you look at the last three games, just 74
18:01
yards, 103 yards and 75 yards in total.
18:05
That's got to change. And that cannot happen up
18:07
against an Alabama team. So I I mentioned all those flaws
18:12
with Alabama and I they totally deserve it, but this Oklahoma
18:17
team is not necessarily exempt from criticism either.
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I think it is something to be worried about if I'm an Oklahoma
18:24
fan because Oklahoma has demonstrated fraud
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characteristics since John Matier returned from injury.
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Don't get me wrong again, this defense is legit.
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They hold opponents to 13.9 points per game.
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They lead the FBS in sacks and get you off the field on 3rd
18:44
down. But this is a very BYU like team
18:49
right now in terms of they of the way they win games.
18:53
I thought BYU was a fraud. There are a lot of fraud
18:57
characteristics like this Oklahoma, excuse me, around this
19:01
Oklahoma team that worry me because in September, this was a
19:06
group putting up 303 yards a game.
19:08
And that was against, you know, one of the best defenses in
19:11
Auburn. And then they put up 408 yards
19:13
against Michigan. Now they averaged around 275
19:17
yards against competent opponents.
19:20
That's concerning to me. This is not going to be a
19:23
sustainable method of winning in the College Football Playoff.
19:26
And this is not a team that I think wins more than one game in
19:31
this College Football Playoff field.
19:33
But I think it could be enough to get by Alabama in this one.
19:39
But one more thing I want to mention on this game is the
19:41
special teams. I think the special teams are
19:44
actually really important here because this is an Oklahoma team
19:49
that has a really, really nice weapon.
19:51
And Tate Sandell, who was a Gorza Award finalist, and a lot
19:58
of people probably remember him from that Tennessee game.
20:01
We had those biker shorts on and, you know, the knees were
20:05
very revealing. You saw the thigh, You know,
20:07
it's just like this is not a part of the uniform and this
20:12
should not be allowed. But he was really good.
20:15
So it was like it was OK. Like he was making them and
20:18
making them from 50 yards on the road in a rocking environment.
20:21
So it was all good. But I think in a game like this,
20:25
this could be really important because I don't think you can
20:28
expect much from both of these offenses.
20:31
Alabama's defense, I haven't really touched much on them, but
20:35
that's a really talented group as well.
20:36
I don't really need to say too much about Alabama's defense
20:39
here because I know what Oklahoma's offense is.
20:42
I've seen more potential from Alabama's offense, but they're
20:45
not playing well right now. Oklahoma, since John Matier got
20:50
injured, has not been the same group, but Oklahoma's defense is
20:53
so strong that I really worry that they're going to be make
20:57
Alabama 1 dimensional like they basically already are.
21:01
So you could look at this game, we're like where it's both sides
21:05
are kind of a wash which team can win in an aspect of the
21:09
game. And I think Oklahoma has a
21:10
significant advantage on special teams because a close game can
21:15
dictate and make the difference. And I think Oklahoma's got that
21:19
difference here. The Sooners have, you know, won
21:22
a lot of close games. Again, I don't think it's a
21:24
sustainable method of winning, but Tate Sandell has made 23 of
21:29
24 field goal attempts, including a 7 for seven mark on
21:33
50 yarders. Made all three against Alabama,
21:36
made all three against Tennessee.
21:38
Those are those tight type of games up against quality
21:41
opponents that Oklahoma has won astoundingly and an aspect of
21:46
the game. And that was special teams.
21:48
The Sooners also, you know, used really nice punt returns against
21:53
Alabama to set up for field, good field goal position.
21:56
They got turnovers off of special teams in that game as
21:59
well. I think special teams is going
22:01
to be a really interesting wrinkle on Saturday.
22:03
It's going to be Friday. And you know, in a matchup like
22:07
this where both teams are pretty even, I think that's a part of
22:11
the game that could be leaning towards Oklahoma.
22:15
Right now, my lean is the Sooners.
22:17
I I don't love what I see from Alabama right now.
22:22
I don't love what I see from Oklahoma's offense.
22:24
But I trust this defense at home.
22:27
I trust their special teams more and I like that they're in a
22:30
road environment. So I lean Oklahoma right now and
22:33
I know a lot of people are looking at that 1 1/2 for
22:36
Alabama and say woo, that's a nice number.
22:39
I'm not so sure because I just don't think this Alabama team is
22:43
playing as their record says they are right now.
22:47
They're not playing to the strength of that Crimson Tide
22:51
logo. I think they're playing their
22:54
worst football the season at the wrong time.
22:56
And maybe that wasn't the beginning of the season in Week
22:59
1 when they lost to Florida State, which is still the
23:01
craziest loss maybe in college football history that this team
23:05
loses to that Florida State team and then marches all the way to
23:08
the CFP this year. But regardless of that, this
23:12
last month sample size of this team is just not impressive to
23:16
me. So I have a tough time backing
23:18
them right now. I would lean with Oklahoma.
23:21
All right, we'll switch over to my favorite game of the week.
23:30
That is number 10 Miami at #7 Texas A&M.
23:34
And this one is on Saturday at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on ABC.
23:38
The Aggies are 3 1/2 point favorites here.
23:41
The total 51 and a half. A far cry from that 40 1/2 game
23:46
we just talked about. But the pregame storylines here,
23:51
just to do a little history lesson. 6th meeting all time
23:55
between the Canes and Aggies. Last time Miami traveled to Kyle
23:59
Field, it was your one for Mario Cristobal.
24:02
It was Max Johnson at quarterback.
24:04
For Texas A&M, you had running back Devon A Chan that ran all
24:09
over the Canes in this one had over 100 all yards or
24:13
all-purpose yards I should say, and a touchdown.
24:16
And then Texas A&M got a signature win under Jimbo
24:18
Fisher, just a week removed from losing to Appalachian State.
24:22
So it was kind of a whirlwind of emotions type of game here.
24:26
But now we see these teams both in the College Football Playoff,
24:31
whether you believe Miami should be here or not.
24:34
I don't. But I will still talk about it
24:36
with a smile on my face. This is going to be a really
24:39
good game. And this is the game that I
24:42
think is bolstered by the most star power on both sides in
24:46
terms of really even units and what these guys are bringing to
24:51
the table. We'll begin with Texas A&M
24:53
because I want to focus on these playmakers for both the Aggies
24:57
and the Canes. And then we'll talk about kind
24:59
of the overlapping storyline here.
25:02
And it revolves around a particular quarterback in this
25:05
game, But A&M is the only team to win three Rd. games against
25:11
ranked teams this season at the time of the game.
25:16
And that goes to, you know, Notre Dame, which I think is
25:19
still one of the most impressive wins of the season.
25:22
That goes to who was their other one.
25:26
Let's see what am I? What am I blanking on here?
25:28
Oh, Missouri. They beat the crap out of
25:29
Missouri. And you know, this is a a a team
25:34
that has has played really good football throughout the the
25:38
course of this season. But over the last couple of
25:41
weeks, it's been been a little bit shady.
25:44
But regardless, it's the only team in the SEC to rank in the
25:47
top 20 in total offense and total defense.
25:51
And we'll focus on that number 21 offense.
25:54
We'll start with Marcel Reed at quarterback because Marcel Reed
25:59
is interesting because last season when he came in for
26:03
Connor Wigman and that LSU match up, I'm sure you remember it.
26:07
It was Texas A&M wearing those blackout uniforms.
26:10
They were up against LSU and things started going South,
26:14
saying things started going South for this Texas A&M team.
26:18
LSU is kind of dominated in the first half and Garrett Nussmeyer
26:21
played a really, really good first half of football, but he
26:24
started turning the ball over. Marcel Reed comes in for Connor
26:28
Wigman and this Texas A&M offense starts getting in
26:31
rhythm. And one of my things with him
26:34
last year as opposed to this year was last year I thought it
26:37
was a little bit of just a run threat.
26:39
And now he has become a really good quarterback.
26:44
It's kind of the same with Diego Pavia.
26:46
Like Diego Pavia last year was a little bit of A1 trick pony for
26:48
me. I thought he was a good
26:49
quarterback this season for Marcel Reed, he's a little bit
26:53
of A1 trick pony. Last year I didn't love him down
26:56
the field. Now you see him this season and
26:59
he's been really good in both and sometimes makes elite throws
27:01
in the air and it helps when you've got a wide receiving core
27:05
that he has. But he's been a really good
27:07
player this season. I've loved watching the
27:09
evolution of him, and Reed is a, you know, sophomore quarterback
27:13
out of Nashville, TN. I played well that time out.
27:17
I didn't play against them, but my high school MUS played
27:21
against him in the state championship my senior year.
27:24
So I've been watching this kid play since he was, you know, a
27:27
sophomore in high school. And he is a very, very
27:30
impressive player. And he has thrown for 2932 yards
27:34
and 25 touchdowns this season. And it helps when you've got a
27:39
guy in KC Concepcion, the transfer from NC State has been
27:44
the difference for this Aggies offense this year.
27:47
One of the big things that Texas A&M wanted to hit on and the
27:51
portal was finding those wide receiver playmakers.
27:54
And they got two of them with Mario Craver, the Mississippi
27:59
State transfer, being the other one.
28:00
But KC Concepcion, I I watched him last year play against this
28:06
play against Tennessee and that was in the what what was that?
28:11
The Dukes Mayo kickoff classic. I saw him in that one and I
28:16
think he's been a a huge hit for this Texas A&M team.
28:19
Just looking off the numbers here, 1409 all-purpose yards,
28:24
10th most in the Power 4 is he's a guy that also returns kicks
28:28
and punts and he had a very costly punt return for Brian
28:34
Kelly in his time at LSU. That was kind of the dagger in
28:38
that game when they played at night.
28:40
That was the other ranked win, LSU.
28:41
I'm sorry, I forgot. But regardless, an elite
28:47
receiver, 57 catches, 886 yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 touchdowns as a
28:52
punt returner. He's been Reed's best target
28:55
throughout the season, most reliable.
28:58
Then you've got a Mario Craver, who I think's a great
29:01
complimentary piece, another great guy to have alongside.
29:04
And he's been a big impact this season.
29:07
Kind of a little bit of both. Concepcion, a little bit
29:09
flashier, but Craver is still really strong.
29:12
And then you look at the offensive line and you've got,
29:15
you know, NFL talent up and down this group.
29:17
You've got, you know, Trey Zune, the third who's been talking
29:22
some crap by the way. He's there's been a lot of
29:24
jawing in this Miami, Texas A&M kind of lead up as both teams
29:30
have kind of done their own fair share of bulletin board
29:33
material. But Tray Zoom the third is, you
29:35
know, one of the best offensive lineman in the country.
29:38
It helps to have a guy like that.
29:41
Running back Clavion Moss is going to be questionable for
29:44
this game. I got that notification right
29:47
before we came on tonight, today I should say.
29:51
But if he's healthy at running back, that's another great
29:53
addition. He helps out with this offense.
29:55
And that would be very beneficial for Marcel Reed, who
29:59
is not necessarily a young quarterback, but you know, like
30:03
no one has played in a game like this before.
30:05
But it helps to have all the resources necessary when you're
30:08
in a match up like this. And Le'veon Moss, one of the
30:11
better running backs in the SEC, will help to have him.
30:17
And we'll talk about the defense now because, and this defense is
30:20
loaded with talent as well. Defensive end Cash as Howell, I
30:25
think deserves a lot more recognition heading into this
30:27
one because everyone wants to talk about Miami's defensive
30:30
edges and they should because they're that good.
30:33
But Cash as Howell is a Lombardi Award finalist. 11 1/2 sacks,
30:38
which ranks 4th nationally, is fourth with 14 tackles for loss
30:43
and 5th amongst SEC edge rushers with 41 pressures.
30:48
Cassius Howe deserves a lot of credit, man.
30:49
He deserves some talking in this one.
30:52
And I, I don't necessarily know if it's just like, you know, I,
30:56
I'm not in the Texas area, so I'm, I'm sure a lot more people
30:59
are talking about it. But just like for my broadview
31:02
of the college football landscape, it's all about Ruben
31:06
Bayne and Hakeem Mesedor. Cassius Howe, I mean, right up
31:10
there with Ruben Bayne, if not better surpassed Mesedor.
31:14
So this is an Aggie's defense that is really strong.
31:19
It's always been strong under Mike Elko when Elko was the
31:22
defensive coordinator back in the day for the Aggies.
31:25
It's always been his expertise and that's once again been a big
31:28
part of this Texas A&M team this season.
31:31
Maybe not as strong in terms of the numbers as he would want as
31:34
they ranked just 34th overall in the country, but this is a group
31:38
that has collected at least 6 tackles for loss in every game
31:43
this season and that is insane and it really is insane.
31:47
This again shows the strength of this team.
31:48
I know the overall number they would like to improve on, but
31:53
this is a talented, talented group, top to bottom, offense
31:56
and defense. So there's there's your battle
31:59
of the playmakers for Texas A&M. We'll switch over to Miami
32:03
because boy do these guys have some playmakers.
32:06
Well, and Carson back is one of them.
32:10
And we'll talk about the concerns I have about back here
32:13
in a minute. But, you know, back in the winds
32:18
that Miami has is really, really strong.
32:21
You know, 10 victories in the games that Beck plays well, 76%
32:26
of his passes for 90 or 9.1 yards per attempt with 23
32:32
touchdowns and only four interceptions.
32:35
A much different version of him when he is in stride, when he
32:39
has that complimentary run game production, everything like
32:42
that. Malachi Tony, that wide
32:45
receiver, this guy should still be in high school.
32:47
He should be getting ready for the winter formal right now, but
32:52
instead he's getting ready to dance against Texas A&M.
32:56
And this guy is a former three star recruit, A5 chin wide
33:00
receiver that's going to become a freshman All American this
33:03
season. Malachi Tony a a a matchup
33:07
nightmare in the slot and has become a centerpiece for this
33:11
Miami team that I thought already did a good job in the
33:14
offseason and recruiting. You bring in CJ Daniels over
33:17
from LSU, You bring in a Keelan Marion from BYUI.
33:22
Liked this receiving core. Heading into the season, I had
33:25
no idea Malachi Tony would be this type of player, but he has
33:28
and he's been really big for this team.
33:31
So I talk about him. Big part of why Miami is the #20
33:37
scoring offense in the country. ACC freshman of the year, 84
33:41
catches, 970 yards and seven touchdowns.
33:46
He's more than than just a receiver as well.
33:49
Does a great job with the punt returns.
33:51
A couple of guys in this game, Concepcion, we talked about
33:54
really good as a pass catcher, really good as a punt returner.
33:57
They got their own and Malachite Tony.
34:00
And then defensively, I mentioned Ruben Bayne earlier
34:04
and I need to do so again because he is really good now.
34:07
I know a lot of discourse on Twitter right now is talking
34:11
about how big his arms are and how that's not going to
34:14
translate into the NFL. I'm not here to talk NFL folks.
34:17
I'm here to talk about what happens on the gridiron and
34:20
college football. And he is one of the best at
34:23
that and has been throughout the season.
34:25
And the ACC defensive player of the year.
34:28
A projected first round pick. Primary reason why this Miami
34:34
team ranks 3rd and pressure rate 6th and points allowed at 13.8
34:39
points per game and 10th and rushing yards allowed per carry
34:43
at 2.9. And this is a guy that's going
34:46
to draw a ton of attention and has throughout the season.
34:49
But he looks like a grown ass man out there.
34:51
One of the, I think my first real Welcome to Ruben Bayne
34:56
world moment was when they played Florida State and little
35:00
Tommy Castellanos was doing a quarterback option and ran to
35:05
the left side right in front of Ruben Bayne and it looked like a
35:10
adult male versus a toddler. And I get it.
35:14
Thomas Castellanos is not very big anyway, but Ruben Bayne is a
35:18
unit. And having a King Mesodor on the
35:21
other side. Mesodor is a guy that kind of
35:23
gets lost in the sauce a little bit, but he frees up a lot of
35:26
space as well because these are two guys you've got to key in on
35:31
and Trey Zoom the 3rd, so they're all good.
35:33
They're not worried about this matchup.
35:35
He said that two weeks ago that they're not worried about it.
35:38
I would be a little bit worried if I had to go up against these
35:40
two. But Bane for the season, 37
35:43
tackles, 7 1/2 tackles for loss, 4 1/2 sacks and a forced fumble
35:47
with an interception. Mesador on the other side helps
35:51
with that attention, but also it's kind of pick your poison.
35:54
So if you put a lot of emphasis on Bane, then you got to
35:57
remember that you've got to stay in front of Mesador as well.
36:01
And another guy that I don't think gets enough credit
36:04
throughout this season has been Jacoby Thomas.
36:06
This guy's a hard hitter. He's a transfer from Tennessee.
36:10
I got to watch a lot of them last year.
36:12
We graduated on the same day back in May.
36:15
I remember, you know, kind of bumping shoulders with him and
36:18
he I know who I am, but I'm just saying I, you know, graduated
36:21
the same day so I can talk about him.
36:24
He's a hard hitter, kind of a family to the football type of
36:27
safety that I think Miami is really needed.
36:30
And as I want, you know, as we talk about this match up, I do
36:34
want to say, remember what this Miami team was last year and
36:40
this Miami defense was horrible, horrible.
36:42
And they bring in Corey Heatherman from Minnesota.
36:44
He was the defensive coordinator there last season, had a top 10
36:47
unit. I think they ranked 7th overall
36:49
last season and defense. And Heatherman has done an
36:52
incredible job this year. They play with this type of
36:55
violence that is really, really tough to go up against because
37:00
they're willing to lay the blow. They're willing to lay the hit
37:03
and they've got the personnel to do so.
37:05
So this is going to be a tough matchup for for A&M, but the
37:09
reason why I wanted to just kind of highlight all the players in
37:12
this game is because there are a lot of them and I still miss
37:16
some. I still could have talked about
37:17
more, but this is the type of game where whoever's whoever
37:26
star, whoever star is just bigger and shines a little bit
37:30
brighter and is better in those situational moments.
37:33
I think is going to come out on top.
37:35
This is not going to be necessarily a blow out the
37:38
speakers type crowd because it's at 12:00.
37:41
I don't like that it's 11:00 local time.
37:44
I don't like that. But with the NFL playing the
37:47
games that they are, you got to move up the schedule and put the
37:50
better games at the the better time.
37:53
Regardless, this is a very talented matchup between a lot
37:57
of really good players. Those moments in the crunch
38:01
time, we're going to be really, really big here.
38:04
But again, a lot of great players here.
38:07
The other thing I wanted to talk about before I get to my bottom
38:10
line, what type of version of these teams do we see now?
38:16
I I mentioned Texas A&M has, you know, more ranked Rd. wins at
38:21
the time than anyone in the country with three.
38:24
This is also a group that struggled in the latter half of
38:27
the season. Should have probably had two
38:30
losses. South Carolina, this team was
38:32
down 30 to three. You thought everything was over
38:34
for them and they come back and win the game against Texas.
38:38
I assume the Longhorns would win.
38:40
I thought it was too good of a spot, and they did.
38:43
But Tex A&M showed a lot of vulnerability in that game as
38:45
well. So what version of them do you
38:47
get? Because the Yankees have won
38:50
every game except their last one.
38:52
And that loan loss was against a good team, a Texas team that you
38:58
know very well could have made the College Football Playoff in
39:00
any other year. But you've had some shootouts
39:04
like a Notre Dame, which was 41 to 40 in the final.
39:08
You had a 45 to 42 decision in Arkansas, but then you also have
39:12
the games against LSU or you win 49 to 25.
39:16
Then the one against Missouri, you win 38 to 17.
39:19
Then you have the miraculous heartbeater against South
39:22
Carolina. They have won multiple different
39:24
ways. And I think that is important
39:26
heading into this one because Miami has kind of only one way
39:30
of winning. So that does scare me a little
39:32
bit. So I kind of favored Texas AM
39:35
and the situational stuff because Miami opened the season
39:39
is what I thought the best team in the country.
39:41
I had them number one for a couple of weeks because they
39:43
looked the part. And then the Louisville game
39:46
came around and I was like, whoa, what was that?
39:52
And it was Carson Beck not playing at his best.
39:54
We'll talk more about that here in a second.
39:56
But the Louisville game, they were not good, stumbled around
40:01
gone their own way. SMU the same way.
40:03
I mean, Miami, if they did not make the College Football
40:06
Playoff, they could circle that SMU game and probably pick out
40:09
8910 different plays in that one and said that was the most
40:13
controversial play of our season because they were, I mean,
40:16
penalized special teams issues, turnovers, just it was bad
40:23
football. So I'm interested to see what
40:25
version shows up, the Miami team that I saw in the first six
40:29
weeks of the season or the Miami team that I've seen twice in the
40:33
last seven games of the season and haven't been that impressed
40:37
with. The bottom line is this.
40:41
I think the most important player in this game is Carson
40:45
Back. Miami is a different team when
40:51
Carson back is turnover prone. In Miami's two losses this
40:55
season, Beck completed 69.9% of passes for only 7.5 yards per
41:02
game, or per attempt I should say, with two touchdowns and six
41:06
interceptions. I'll say that one more time.
41:09
In Miami's two losses, Beck completed 69.9% of his passes
41:16
for only 7 1/2 yards per attempt with two touchdowns.
41:20
And only It's going to be two touchdowns and six
41:24
interceptions. I've got to get through this
41:26
correctly. 2 touchdowns, 6 interceptions.
41:30
There we go. My notes are not great in terms
41:32
of how they were formatted. In Miami's 10 victories, Beck
41:37
completed 76% of his passes for 2.1 yards per attempt with 23
41:43
touchdowns and only four attempts or 4 interceptions.
41:48
Beck has waited for this moment after suffering that season
41:51
ending injury last year, did not have the opportunity to play
41:54
against Georgia. Opportunity like this was why he
42:00
transferred to Miami. That's why he spent all the time
42:03
in the offseason forming those relationships with his
42:05
teammates. That's why he wanted to play on
42:08
the big stage. But if Carson Beck is the
42:11
turnover version of Carson Beck and the one that makes erratic
42:14
throws, Miami's College Football Playoff hopes will be shot dead
42:18
in the water. Within the first couple of
42:20
minutes of this game, It's quick to tell if you're getting the
42:23
good Carson or the bad Carson, and I think you're going to
42:26
figure that out quick. He's the most important player
42:29
in this game. I lean towards Texas A&M in this
42:33
one. I just think they're the better
42:35
overall team, the more consistent team.
42:38
I know they have a couple of losses late in the season, have
42:43
a loss, could have had a couple of losses late in the season.
42:48
But I think this is the more balanced team, the group that is
42:54
lost to a more credible opponent and like hasn't had this
42:58
necessarily 180 like Miami has. Texas A&M has won multiple
43:03
different ways. I think that's going to be
43:06
beneficial in a matchup like this.
43:08
Quick water break for me and we'll get into these final two
43:11
matchups a little bit quicker on these, but I do want to make
43:14
sure to highlight everything. Also got some bowl action on
43:21
behind me. We got the Cure Bowl as I record
43:24
this shout out to my guy Gaston Moore making his first
43:29
collegiate start tonight and his final collegiate game.
43:32
Really, really cool stuff as Byron Brown is assistant coach
43:38
tonight for the South Florida Bulls and then Colton Joseph on
43:41
the other side for Old Dominion. Their quarterback going to be in
43:45
the portal as well. Well, I shouldn't say as well.
43:48
We don't know what Byron Brown's doing yet, but regardless, ball
43:51
season, always interesting. I love it.
43:54
I'm betting on every game this year.
43:55
Make sure to tail along with us so that you never get bored
44:00
during this holiday season At the Paddifax on Instagram at the
44:04
Paddifax on Twitter. Let's dive into game #3 #11
44:11
Tulane #6 Ole Miss Saturday at 3:30 PM Eastern Time on ESPN.
44:18
The Rebels 17 1/2 point favorites 56 1/2 is the total
44:26
pregame storylines, the second of two rematches in this year's
44:31
first round field. Tulane lost 45 to 10 at Ole Miss
44:36
in September and did not score that lone touchdown until the
44:42
final minute of the game and they allowed 548 yards.
44:47
This was a doozy of a game back in September.
44:50
I remember watching this one at half time.
44:53
I think Jake Retzloff completed one pass, 2 passes or Tulane had
44:59
one first down. It was, it was ugly.
45:02
But the other interesting part of this game is the storyline
45:05
that dominated college football for a month and a half.
45:09
That's Lane Kiffin. He's absent from this one.
45:11
We've never seen a team go into a match up like this without a
45:15
coach or without the head coach. I mean, John Summerall on the
45:20
other side for Tulane, he's headed to Florida.
45:22
He's still coaching. Jimmy Chesney, Even James
45:28
Madison, who's going to UCLA, he's still coaching.
45:32
Ryan Kiffin, not available for this one.
45:34
But with the way that went down, I don't blame him.
45:36
I don't blame Ole Miss for not letting him go.
45:38
But in terms of what I'm watching for in this one, that
45:41
is one of the storylines. No Kiffin.
45:44
Any problems for Ole Miss now? Ole Miss averaged 37 points in
45:50
894 yards of total offense per game this season under Kiffin.
45:56
Now Kiffin no longer in the mix, there remains to be seen whether
46:00
Ole Miss can still operate at the level that they were when
46:05
they had Kiffin on the sideline. But I think the Revs are going
46:08
to be fine here because they still got a lot of the key
46:12
coordinators and key offensive pieces in place because Lane
46:16
Kiffin was the head coach. It was Lane Kiffin's offense,
46:20
but the quarterbacks coach is still around and Joe Judge,
46:23
Charlie Weiss, junior still calling plays.
46:25
He's going to join Kiffin and LSU, but he's still here for the
46:29
playoff. LSU is thrown in this ludicrous
46:31
deal to where if he wins the playoff or if Ole Miss wins the
46:35
playoffs, then he still gets his $1,000,000 that he would have
46:38
received at Ole Miss. It's, I mean, just a crazy
46:41
thing, but whatever. But I I'm not really concerned
46:45
about no Kiffin for this game, particularly because everyone's
46:50
still there in place. Pete Golding, now the head coach
46:53
of this team, he was the defensive coordinator at the
46:55
defense has been fine. But I don't think Kiffin not
47:00
being there for this one is going to be that big of a deal.
47:02
And even if Kiffin were on the sideline, I didn't like Ole Miss
47:05
to win more than a game in the College Football Playoff anyway.
47:09
I think they've played with fire too much and I don't like them
47:12
up against like a Kirby Smart in a College Football Playoff
47:15
situation. I just think they'll be out
47:16
coached, but they would have been out coached even if Lane
47:19
Kiffin, we're on the sideline because I think Lane Kiffin's a
47:21
little bit overrated. But we don't have to get to that
47:23
conversation right now. But no Kiffin any problem.
47:28
I don't project many. This is going to be a group that
47:31
is going to play with a lot of motivation.
47:33
A really big weekend for Oxford. The vault will be rocking.
47:36
I don't think it's going to be that big of a deal.
47:39
Now the Ole Miss offense, I think it's something to watch
47:42
for in terms of how they get into their scheme and and how
47:46
quickly they're able to pick up their footing.
47:49
The last time we saw them play, it was a strong outing against
47:52
Mississippi State. But again, sometimes things
47:55
change in the play to play aspects or the game day
47:59
management, the game day operations when you lose a
48:02
coach. So I'm looking to see if any of
48:04
that is present in the first half, first quarter or even
48:07
throughout this game. We'll look for that.
48:09
But this Ole Miss offense is what it is because they've got
48:13
the personnel, they've got the talent, and Lane Kiffin can jump
48:16
up and down on the sideline and tell Trinidad Chambliss where to
48:19
throw it to, and I think he'll miss a guy like that.
48:22
But other than that, Charlie Weis junior is the one calling
48:25
the plays. Joe Judge is still around.
48:27
I don't think things are going to change that much.
48:29
And this is the number 18 offense in the country for a
48:33
reason. Trinidad Chambliss.
48:35
So Ferris State transfer, 3016 yards, 470 yards accounted for
48:41
on the ground and 24 touchdowns. This was a guy that was a backup
48:45
quarterback back in August. He got the opportunity against
48:48
Arkansas and he never looked back.
48:50
It's the right decision to. Austin Simmons is a smart guy,
48:53
but was not smart when it came to throwing the football.
48:56
I think Chambliss is a better option for this group.
48:59
Then you got Kiwan Lacey at running back.
49:00
This is a guy who puts B to A on every defense and he's gone for
49:05
12179 yards and 20 touchdowns. It's the second best among
49:09
college football running backs this season.
49:12
And then a really interesting aspect of this offense is the
49:15
pass catchers, and they've got four of them that are over 500
49:19
yards for the season. Dejean Stribling, a guy that
49:23
transferred in this past season, he's got 533 yards and five
49:26
touchdowns. Yet Kaden Lee, a guy that was a
49:29
part of this team last season, is a fan favorite.
49:33
He's got 537 for three touchdowns.
49:36
Deuce Alexander, a sophomore that has been really impressive
49:39
throughout the year, 577 yards and two touchdowns and then
49:43
Harris Wallace, the 3rd, 719 yards and three touchdowns for
49:48
the season. So a very well balanced group.
49:50
You've got a tight end that's a good pass catcher as well, just
49:53
below that 500 mark. A lot of good playmakers in the
49:57
receiving game for the Revs and I think this is going to be a
50:02
really tough match up for John Summerall to scheme up against.
50:05
Because while I think Tulane's defense can make plays here and
50:10
there, and I've actually been really impressed in a couple of
50:13
their bigger games this season in terms of their defensive
50:16
front. But in terms of the secondary, I
50:19
think they're going to be out manned, especially up against
50:21
these pass catchers. The thing I'm watching for most
50:25
in this game is can Tulane handle the size and speed of a
50:29
playoff team? Because the Green Waves resume
50:32
is actually not as bad as you would project from a Group of
50:36
Five team. You have wins against Duke and
50:40
Northwestern, but those are a different type of power for team
50:46
than an Ole Miss who's a College Football Playoff group and Group
50:50
of Five teams have. Typically we've been able to
50:53
hang around in the New York New Year 6 College Football Playoff
50:57
era four and seven all time, but three of those losses have been
51:02
in one score game. So you're getting some
51:04
competitive matchups. I don't know if the James
51:07
Madison, Oregon one's going to be competitive.
51:09
We'll see about this one, but this is a 2 lane team that's
51:14
going to be, you know, tested early and often.
51:17
And I worry about their offensive limitations because I
51:20
think Retzloff is not that accurate of a thrower, very
51:24
inconsistent. Now I think he's a good runner
51:26
and he was so last year for BYU, but BYU's tried it out bareback
51:30
Meyer this year and they were a fringe playoff team.
51:33
Retzloff is a good runner. He ran the ball well, somewhat
51:36
well, I should say against Ole Miss in the first outing, but I
51:41
don't trust him to get it done in the year.
51:43
And what I worry about is that Ole Miss is going to be able to
51:48
win those one-on-one matchups and then another layer of this
51:52
defense is going to be unravelled, or I guess revealed,
51:56
I should say, because this is not an Ole Miss defense that
51:58
forces a lot of turnovers. They don't generate a lot of
52:01
sacks or tackles for loss either.
52:03
They ranked 40th in the nation. But they're going to have to be
52:06
disruptive in this postseason. I think a good way to do so is
52:11
lock down the wide receivers for the Green Wave and just get to
52:15
Retts Law because they're going to have time to get back there.
52:19
I like Prince William Onlian a lot. 6 1/2 sacks on the season.
52:24
10 tackles for Law season. Nebraska transfer.
52:26
His brother was a Florida player and then transferred to Ole Miss
52:31
last year and was a good player for the Rebs.
52:34
His brothers fit that bill as well.
52:38
And then you know, he, he's an edge guy, right?
52:40
He's coming off the edge. He's the guy immediately
52:42
responsible for getting to the quarterback.
52:44
But I was also look at TJ Goddery at linebacker. 77
52:48
tackles for the season, Sir Jane Perkins, 64 tackles, 2 sacks
52:52
this year. I, I, I challenge those guys get
52:55
more pressure in this game because I think Tulane will be
52:58
limited in their offensive passing game.
53:01
Get to Retzloff, contain Retzloff and I think this is an
53:05
easy win for the Rebs. And you've also got a defensive
53:08
line unit with guys like Franklin and Eccles who have 3
53:11
1/2 sacks and 4 1/2 sacks combined apiece, I should say.
53:16
So the the lack of sacks, lack of tackles for loss isn't
53:19
because it isn't a talented group, but I I think it's just
53:23
that like they do a good job of containing and they have done
53:29
that like against an Oklahoma when they went on the road, like
53:32
Oklahoma was pretty bottled up there.
53:33
John Metier did not have the type of game we had come to know
53:37
early in the season. I think they're going to have to
53:39
do that in this one against Retzloff because I don't think
53:42
he's going to be a very good thrower.
53:44
I don't think he's going to want to get it out and get it down
53:46
the field when these one on ones against these Ole Miss
53:49
receivers. So that's what I like about Ole
53:53
Miss in this one. I think it's going to be a good
53:55
win for the Rabs and they deserve it.
53:58
They deserve it. I don't know if I'm taking that
54:00
17 1/2 yet. Make sure.
54:03
Another reason to follow at the Paddifax to see where we lean.
54:05
But I I do want to give John Summerall a lot of credit real
54:10
quick before we move to the next game.
54:12
Summerall took the job at Tulane and said we're going to win
54:16
American Championships, we're going to make it to the College
54:18
Football Playoff and we're going to win the playoff.
54:22
He's done everything he said he was going to do and he just took
54:25
that job at Florida but gave Tulane $1,000,000 to help them
54:30
moving forward, which I really like.
54:32
He's a stand up guy, former Kentucky linebacker, hard nosed
54:35
dude. I think he's going to be really
54:37
successful for Florida. They're just going to be out
54:40
manned in this one. And I don't love their if they
54:42
had a better quarterback and like, if Darren Mensa was still
54:45
playing, I, I, I could see Tulane pulling an upset.
54:48
I just don't think the quarterback play is good enough
54:51
for Tulane in this one. And that's going to be the
54:54
differentiating factor. Ole Miss just too much offense
54:57
and they're playing in the vault, $74 million estimated
55:01
this weekend. And economic impact.
55:04
College Football Playoff can do that to you, All right, Final
55:09
game, James Madison and Oregon, Saturday at 7:30 PM Eastern Time
55:14
on TNT. The Ducks 21 1/2 point favorites
55:18
here. The line is 50 1/2.
55:21
Pregame storylines. This is the first meeting
55:25
between these two teams and the first time Oregon will host a
55:29
home playoff game. Remember last year Oregon was
55:33
the number one overall C They had the automatic buy into the
55:36
Rose Bowl in which they hosted or I guess went up against Ohio
55:40
State. Now they were quickly axed from
55:43
that game, but a team that was in the 12 team format last year
55:48
now gets to host a playoff game and I'm sure the Oregon fans
55:52
will appreciate that. Oregon has had plenty of success
55:56
in the postseason before They were in the BCS Championship in
56:00
2010, they were in the 14 playoff in 2014, they were in
56:05
their last year. They've been in multiple years.
56:07
So this is a team with plenty of experience come postseason time.
56:11
James Madison, however, only has three years of experience at the
56:16
FBS level, and this is going to be their third ever bowl
56:20
appearance and third straight. Kirk Signetti, now in Indiana,
56:24
built this group at James Madison and the Dukes have kind
56:29
of been like the team. Everyone is used as an example,
56:33
as a bad example. But hey, they've done their job,
56:36
man, and they deserve to be here.
56:38
They're a great season out of the Sunbelt Conference.
56:40
They beat Troy and the conference championship, and now
56:45
they're going to get their crack at Oregon.
56:47
So let's dive into it. For Oregon, it's kind of similar
56:51
to Ole Miss. Now, this one isn't around their
56:54
head coach, it's around their coordinators.
56:56
When you've got a group led by first year starting quarterback
57:00
Dante Moore, who finished the season with an impressive string
57:04
of wins and included Iowa, USC and Washington.
57:07
That Washington game was on the road and I thought that was an
57:10
upset bid for the Ducks, but I was proven wrong.
57:13
A big win there and then this is a top ten offense and a top 10
57:19
defense. They're coming in with a lot of
57:22
momentum. And when you come in with a lot
57:24
of momentum, other teams are going to come knocking on the
57:26
door, too. Will Stein, the offensive
57:28
coordinator, taking the job at Kentucky, He's still going to
57:31
call plays and be with the Ducks through the College Football
57:34
Playoff. But that's an intriguing
57:36
storyline here. The defensive coordinator, it's
57:39
where are my notes here. Tasha Lupoy now at Cal defensive
57:45
and offensive coordinators both taking jobs elsewhere.
57:49
They're both going to coach in the College Football Playoff.
57:51
But how much of that affects the day-to-day process, the game
57:57
process, you know, stuff that has become really unique or I
58:01
guess really routine, I should say for this group, routine can
58:06
now become a little bit tighter. So that's something to watch
58:08
for. But I don't think it's going to
58:12
cause a lot of issues in this game because Oregon's just going
58:15
to have the better guys position wise, skill position wise.
58:20
And there are some pretty interesting revelations leading
58:25
up to this game. Jacorian Moore, one of the best
58:29
wide receivers in the country, one of the best freshman in the
58:32
country. It's been out over the last
58:35
couple of weeks, last month or so.
58:38
He's been practicing this week. I've told you all about Kenyan
58:42
Sadiq. We'll talk more about him here
58:44
in a minute. Unguardable tight end.
58:48
They're getting healthier. Some guys that have proven
58:51
themselves in the second-half of the season are now mixed in with
58:54
them. And what if they got even
58:56
healthier? Evan Stewart, the former five
59:00
star wide receiver, practicing this week.
59:04
He was ruled out for the season back in July, June or July.
59:11
I might even before that. Practicing this week.
59:15
Imagine they got Evan Stewart back.
59:16
You only have to play four games in the College Football Playoff
59:19
to win the championship. He would still be able to red
59:22
shirt if it's a bad girl. You know, if it's a bad batch of
59:24
apples in this postseason if they got Evan Stewart back.
59:28
All of those characteristics I talked about a couple of weeks
59:31
ago following Week 13 about some of the issues I still have with
59:35
this Oregon team would go away because you've got Dante Moore,
59:40
you've got Malik Benson, I think is a great veteran wide
59:43
receiver. Decorian Moore comes back into
59:45
this group, that's awesome. Kenyan Sadiq is unguardable,
59:49
that's really awesome. Evan Stewart comes back and
59:52
we're talking national championship level again.
59:55
I don't know what Stewart's going to look like, but if he's
59:58
able to come back fully healthy and ready to go, that changes
1:00:01
everything for this Oregon team and.
1:00:05
Jinyon Siddiq, I think is a big part of this because he's been
1:00:09
the guy available over the last couple of weeks. 40 catches,
1:00:13
which leads the team second with eight touchdowns.
1:00:17
Also a really ineffective blocker.
1:00:19
A guy whose jersey looks like it's about to RIP out of the
1:00:22
seams every time he steps on the field.
1:00:25
Those are the type of skill players that I think is going to
1:00:28
be so big in this one. Six foot 3245.
1:00:33
Make no mistake, however, he is a matchup nightmare and capable
1:00:38
of taking over a game. Freaky athleticism.
1:00:43
That build doesn't sound like a guy that's a tight end, and it
1:00:47
shouldn't because when you see him play it's a different thing.
1:00:51
Now I do want to highlight a a talented defensive player skill
1:00:58
guy for JMU that's going to be going up against this Oregon
1:01:02
team because again, I just glazed all those Oregon guys,
1:01:04
they're good. Trent Hendrick, linebacker for
1:01:08
James Madison, 4th year senior Sunbelt Defensive Player of the
1:01:13
Year. Leads the Dukes with 96 tackles,
1:01:15
including three sacks, and headlines a defensive unit that
1:01:19
is top ten in the FBS and scoring in total defense.
1:01:24
Don't look now, but James Madison has like a top 2 defense
1:01:27
in the country. I know it's different teams.
1:01:29
I know the level of competition is different.
1:01:33
James Madison actually has a pretty good defense and
1:01:36
statistically one of the best. James Madison's defense has shut
1:01:41
out opponents for four straight second halves, doing it six
1:01:46
times in total this season. I'm not saying they're going to
1:01:50
do it against Oregon, but you need to give them some respect.
1:01:53
I hate the discourse on this James Madison Oregon game.
1:01:55
I'm not watching. I don't care.
1:01:57
I don't want to see it. OK, well, no one asked.
1:02:00
But if you do want to watch and you do want to know and you, you
1:02:03
do want to enlighten yourself on the game, James Madison does
1:02:07
have a good defense. Trent Hendrix is one of the best
1:02:09
in the country. This is a good team.
1:02:12
They deserve to be here. Go sour over the NFL.
1:02:16
That is going to be some crappy game that you know has a 13 to
1:02:20
10 score in the fourth quarter. I'd rather watch the college
1:02:24
game. We never know what can happen.
1:02:28
Match up #2 I want to talk about this Ducks defense.
1:02:33
Defensively, the Ducks allow the second fewest plays of 10 plus
1:02:39
and 20 plus plays behind only Ohio State.
1:02:42
They're 8th in points per game, second in yards per play, 20th
1:02:46
in yards per rush allowed per game, second in opponent pass
1:02:50
yards per game, And Oregon's defense has multiple different
1:02:54
contributors. I talked a couple of weeks ago
1:02:57
about the lapses they sometimes have in the past game.
1:03:01
I think those are sometimes still true, but maybe I was
1:03:04
looking a little bit too hard into their match up against
1:03:07
USCA. Team that likes to throw a lot,
1:03:10
but they're loaded at every level.
1:03:13
Matteo Yongale, Amari Washington, Barry Alexander up
1:03:17
front, that's a really strong defensive line.
1:03:21
Bryce Boxer and Tatum Tattooey have been dominant defensive
1:03:27
players at linebacker this season.
1:03:29
And then I want to talk a little bit more about one of these guys
1:03:34
here in a minute. But you look at the secondary,
1:03:39
you got Brandon Finney, Junior and Aaron Flowers and Dylan
1:03:44
Feneman. Really good group, been key in
1:03:48
the secondary. I mentioned and highlighted
1:03:51
Bryce Bockner. I need to talk about him a
1:03:52
little bit more as well. 103 total tackles, 1 interception,
1:03:56
one sack this season. But if you're a college football
1:04:01
fan and maybe you haven't watched as close this year and
1:04:04
maybe you want to start getting into college football a little
1:04:06
bit more, know this name. Brandon Finney Junior.
1:04:14
Brandon Finney Junior has been one of the best players in
1:04:17
college football this season and he is like 6 months removed from
1:04:22
going to high school Proms. He is a legitimate contender for
1:04:28
an All American. As a freshman.
1:04:31
He has been a huge development for this Oregon team.
1:04:35
After all of the guys they lost after last year and the
1:04:38
secondary, you needed a hit on someone and Brandon Finney
1:04:42
Junior has been that guy and he's made plays this season.
1:04:45
Had a huge strip hit against Iowa that totally turned that
1:04:50
game and gave Oregon the opportunity to take the lead and
1:04:53
end a 7 minute Iowa drive. Guys like that are going to be
1:04:58
the difference on Saturday. The skill position players that
1:05:02
Oregon recruits are just going to be the differentiating
1:05:05
factor. I think James Madison has the
1:05:07
offensive line and defensive line to hang around, but it's
1:05:11
the wide receivers, it's the talented tight end and Kenyan
1:05:15
Sadiq, it's the Brandon Finney juniors that are just going to
1:05:18
overwhelm a team like James Madison.
1:05:21
And I think that's the big take away here.
1:05:24
You know, I'll reiterate it here in a minute and talk about the
1:05:29
group of five. There's a lot of people like to
1:05:31
bash that, but the skill players is just the difference in a
1:05:35
matchup like this. And Oregon has got a lot of
1:05:37
them, and if they come back and get some of them back healthy, I
1:05:40
think that's where this thing can get a little bit out of
1:05:43
hand. But I do want to give the Dukes
1:05:46
some credit and the way I think they can win this game is just
1:05:50
solely based off of their offensive production.
1:05:52
Again, I think they have the offensive line that can hang
1:05:55
around. They're led by a quarterback and
1:05:58
Alonza Barnett, the third, who has a great story.
1:06:02
Star running back Wayne Knight has done a really good job as
1:06:05
well. He's going to challenge this
1:06:06
Oregon defense in addition with Barnett early on.
1:06:10
But this Barnett kid story is really cool.
1:06:13
Second year starter tore his ACL on the final play of last year's
1:06:19
regular season finale and is back this season playing at a
1:06:25
really, really high level. Sunbelt Conference player of the
1:06:28
year. 2533 yards and another 544 on the ground for 35 combined
1:06:34
touchdowns. He's a great player, has got a
1:06:37
great story and those are the type of guys I'm happy for to
1:06:42
have a moment like this on Saturday.
1:06:44
Well, James Madison beat Oregon. I doubt it.
1:06:46
I highly doubt it. It probably won't happen, but
1:06:49
good for a guy like Alonza Barnett that gets an opportunity
1:06:53
to play in a game like this because he worked his tail off
1:06:55
to get here. That's the type of stuff I like.
1:07:00
Finally, as I wrap this game up and and we wrap this episode up,
1:07:05
the G5 deserves a College Football Playoff bid.
1:07:09
But the skill players are going to be the difference in this
1:07:12
game. And I know that as I mentioned
1:07:14
earlier, I think Oregon skill skill guys are just going to
1:07:20
overwhelm James Madison here. You've got an Oregon team that
1:07:23
boasts a top ten offense and defense and yards per play
1:07:27
because of great coaching, but also a varied array, a talented
1:07:33
array of skilled players. On offense, it's Dante Moore, a
1:07:38
first round pick. Kenyan Sadiq is unguardable.
1:07:42
Decorian Moore, one of the best wide receivers in the country,
1:07:45
and he's a freshman. Evan Stewart practicing this
1:07:49
week. They could get him back into the
1:07:50
mix. On defense, the front has been
1:07:52
aggressive. The linebackers fly to the
1:07:55
football, but a guy like Brandon Finney Junior is what makes this
1:08:00
thing totally different. It's just the type of skill that
1:08:03
Oregon is able to get in the door in Year 1 for a kid like
1:08:08
Finney Junior as opposed to a James Madison who's got a lot of
1:08:11
older veteran players that are great but like the skill
1:08:14
positions. Guys like Brandon Finney Junior,
1:08:18
a potential All American as a true freshman, show the skill
1:08:23
gap at those skill players in this game.
1:08:27
I like James Madison in the trenches.
1:08:29
I think that'll be an even match up.
1:08:32
I like the story. They believe in this team.
1:08:36
They deserve an opportunity to play, but I just think they're
1:08:40
out manned in the skill spots and I like Oregon to cover that
1:08:45
21 1/2 number. So that is my College Football
1:08:50
Playoff first round primer covering all four matchups ahead
1:08:55
of the action. We'll do this on Sunday or
1:09:00
Monday. I'll have my reaction from the
1:09:02
action, and we'll get ready for that next wave of games on New
1:09:08
Year's Eve and New Year's Day. So coming up around the way,
1:09:11
make sure to follow at the Paddafax on Instagram, Twitter
1:09:15
and TikTok at the Padifax on Instagram, the fastest growing
1:09:19
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1:09:25
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1:09:28
We want to start expanding this side here soon, but we got to
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1:09:34
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1:09:45
That's going to wrap it up for a great addition of the pad
1:09:50
effects. We appreciate you hanging out
1:09:51
with us. Until then, I'm William
1:09:53
Patterson signing out.