Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Minimal Mondays | MLB & WNBA | 8/10/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | Minimal Mondays | MLB & WNBA | 8/10/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chase.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: The black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 3: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: No hold on, hold on nothing nice, No hold on, hold.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: On me, but it all.
• 1:11
  Speaker 5: Get the crown. Hold on, hold on and stay with him.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up, everybuddy?
• 1:28
  Speaker 6: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports, Monday, August tenth.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: Not a good day on the show yesterday.
• 1:36
  Speaker 6: It started off the early part of the Cincinnati Washington
• 1:39
  Speaker 6: game looked like it was trending get the right direction.
• 1:41
  Speaker 6: I think there were four runs three innings into the
• 1:44
  Speaker 6: game or something. I'm like, okay, good, but again, Brad, Lord,
• 1:50
  Speaker 6: I can't gauge this guy. Dude, I can't gauge jump him. No,
• 1:53
  Speaker 6: I have no idea like Washington. Lord only was in
• 1:57
  Speaker 6: there for probably two winnings at most. So you're telling
• 1:59
  Speaker 6: me get seven innings from Washington's bullpen.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: And they allow nothing. I'm pretty sure that's what happened.
• 2:05
  Speaker 6: The Reds offense is so bad that they couldn't even
• 2:09
  Speaker 6: score against Washington's future.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: Bullpen at all. That is not what I expected.
• 2:15
  Speaker 6: Washington tried to still send it over just themselves late
• 2:19
  Speaker 6: in the game. They scored more runs late in the
• 2:21
  Speaker 6: game because there was a stretch in the middle of
• 2:23
  Speaker 6: the game where no runs scored. After it was a
• 2:26
  Speaker 6: I think it was a three to one Washington lead
• 2:28
  Speaker 6: in the third inning, I think, or maybe the fourth inning,
• 2:31
  Speaker 6: and then Brady Singer settled down. He didn't allow another
• 2:33
  Speaker 6: run either, and he wound up going six, So his
• 2:36
  Speaker 6: start actually wound up not being that bad.
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: I was.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: I wish that he got knocked out of.
• 2:41
  Speaker 6: The game, but they kept him in. The Reds bullpen
• 2:44
  Speaker 6: was awful though. After Singer was out, the Reds bullpen
• 2:47
  Speaker 6: gave it four more runs or something, and it still
• 2:50
  Speaker 6: wasn't enough. It landed eight Washington seven to one. Washington
• 2:54
  Speaker 6: did their part. Cincinnati can eat my ass pretty much.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: We did get the.
• 3:00
  Speaker 6: Underwright in the other baseball game that was very easy
• 3:04
  Speaker 6: with what was it Tiger's Giants, I think is what
• 3:07
  Speaker 6: it was.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: That was a one one. Not the game. I'm pretty sure,
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: very deep it was a zero zero game. Actually, I
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: think very.
• 3:14
  Speaker 6: Deep into the game, I think it was one to
• 3:16
  Speaker 6: one and it went into extra innings, which you know,
• 3:19
  Speaker 6: extra innings is an under killer, but when it's only
• 3:21
  Speaker 6: a one to one game and there's been no offense
• 3:24
  Speaker 6: in the game, it's it's less scary having to go
• 3:29
  Speaker 6: into extra innings.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: And the game ended pretty quickly. It was a three
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: to one final.
• 3:32
  Speaker 6: I think Detroit won again after selling at the trade dead.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: The giants are ass but whatever. I didn't care about
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: any of that.
• 3:40
  Speaker 6: I just thought the pitching would be good, and it was.
• 3:42
  Speaker 6: Logan Web went really deep into the game. He went
• 3:44
  Speaker 6: eight innings, so we didn't really have to worry about
• 3:46
  Speaker 6: San Francisco's bullpen until the extra innings when they lost
• 3:49
  Speaker 6: the game.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so that was a good one.
• 3:53
  Speaker 6: And then I don't know what to say about Phoenix
• 3:55
  Speaker 6: and the WNBA.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Never even close. They lost by twenty.
• 3:59
  Speaker 6: Although I will say the game wasn't as bad as
• 4:02
  Speaker 6: it looked on the scoreboard.
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, when you.
• 4:04
  Speaker 6: Get a blowout like that, it never is really totally accurate.
• 4:08
  Speaker 6: The statistics weren't really that lopsided. I mean, there were
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: some shooting disparities in the game, which is kind of
• 4:17
  Speaker 6: a bit of an outlier. Washington hit fifty percent of
• 4:19
  Speaker 6: their shots and they're not really a good offensive team.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Phoenix couldn't hit anything.
• 4:23
  Speaker 6: Washington went to the free throw line way more so
• 4:26
  Speaker 6: that was a disparity and Phoenix turned the ball over
• 4:29
  Speaker 6: a ton.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, it was the wrong call. Wasn't a good game.
• 4:33
  Speaker 6: I don't think it was as bad as it looked,
• 4:35
  Speaker 6: but it was not good. All right, let's get into today.
• 4:39
  Speaker 6: It's Monday. We have fewer games to break down today.
• 4:42
  Speaker 6: I'm gonna try to do it. I think we have
• 4:44
  Speaker 6: like ten baseball games today or something like that, all
• 4:48
  Speaker 6: night games Boston at Toronto. I don't really want to
• 4:52
  Speaker 6: talk about the Red Sox right now. The Red Sox
• 4:54
  Speaker 6: went with a full bullpen game yesterday, so I don't
• 4:57
  Speaker 6: know where stand of all is. Maybe I shouldn't care
• 4:59
  Speaker 6: because I think sucks. Anyway, the Red Sox at least
• 5:02
  Speaker 6: have an actual starter pitching today, and on the surface,
• 5:06
  Speaker 6: a lot looks good for the Red Sox here. It
• 5:08
  Speaker 6: looks like they should have the better starting pitcher here.
• 5:10
  Speaker 6: Toronto's not in a good spot. Toronto's returning home for
• 5:13
  Speaker 6: a road trip where a three series no a two
• 5:16
  Speaker 6: series road trip with a makeup game in there as well.
• 5:19
  Speaker 6: They went to Houston, had a makeup game in Chicago,
• 5:21
  Speaker 6: and then they went to Philly, returning home.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: From all that not a good spot.
• 5:26
  Speaker 6: Generally, Like I say, teams tend to be in a
• 5:29
  Speaker 6: distracted spot. You get back to home life, You got
• 5:32
  Speaker 6: stuff to do at home, especially when the team is
• 5:34
  Speaker 6: going nowhere like Toronto. However, they might still get up
• 5:38
  Speaker 6: for a game against the Red Sox just because the
• 5:40
  Speaker 6: Red Sox are divisional foe. Toronto has a chance to
• 5:44
  Speaker 6: play spoiler or sort of if you want to call
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: it that, and they might not overlook them just because
• 5:50
  Speaker 6: the Red Sox are hot anywhere we're hot until the
• 5:52
  Speaker 6: last couple of games. Red Sox should have won yesterday,
• 5:55
  Speaker 6: though I don't know how the Red Sox lost a
• 5:57
  Speaker 6: bullpen duel against the A's where it's literally the best
• 6:01
  Speaker 6: bullpen just lost to the worst bullpen, insane. Red Sox
• 6:06
  Speaker 6: should be in a better spot here because they are traveling.
• 6:09
  Speaker 6: Not because they're traveling, but because they're starting a road trip,
• 6:12
  Speaker 6: is what I should say. When things have started going
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: bad for you at home, one of the best things
• 6:16
  Speaker 6: for us to go out on the road.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: And the Red Sox are way better on the road.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Believe it or not.
• 6:20
  Speaker 6: They're way above five hundred on the road. They're way
• 6:23
  Speaker 6: better on the road than at home this year, which
• 6:25
  Speaker 6: is really strange, but that is the case. And Toronto's
• 6:28
  Speaker 6: below five hundred at home, so home road splits favor
• 6:31
  Speaker 6: of the Red Sox here. I think the situational spot
• 6:33
  Speaker 6: favors the Red Sox.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 6:35
  Speaker 6: The Red Sox have the better bullpen. They're number one,
• 6:38
  Speaker 6: although Toronto's isn't bad. They're rake seventeenth, but their era
• 6:42
  Speaker 6: is pretty solid. Red Sox are the better offense. They're
• 6:45
  Speaker 6: twelfth at this point, tie with the White Sox. Toronto's
• 6:48
  Speaker 6: dead last thirtieth. Problem is, there are a couple of
• 6:52
  Speaker 6: problems with this. One is the Red Sox used a
• 6:54
  Speaker 6: lot of relief pitchers yesterday.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Because it was a bullpen game. They use six. They used.
• 6:59
  Speaker 6: Eric Miller is an opener and he wasn't good. He
• 7:02
  Speaker 6: gave up a run in the first inning. I don't
• 7:05
  Speaker 6: know what I think about miller Man. I like his energy,
• 7:07
  Speaker 6: but he walks way too many guys. I don't know
• 7:09
  Speaker 6: what to tell you. BeO actually pitched well out of
• 7:13
  Speaker 6: the bullpen again, but the Red Sox bullpen is going
• 7:15
  Speaker 6: to be more limited after they saved their bullpen by
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: the way, by using Burgos as a call up the
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: last couple of days.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: Then what do they do?
• 7:22
  Speaker 6: Oh, yeah, let's have a bullpen game and use everyone again.
• 7:25
  Speaker 6: Yeah great, Toronto used a bunch too, though Toronto did
• 7:29
  Speaker 6: use six relievers yesterday as well, so the Red Sox
• 7:32
  Speaker 6: probably do still have a bullpen advantage here. Toronto finished
• 7:37
  Speaker 6: off by losing to Philly yesterday, by the way, whether
• 7:39
  Speaker 6: they actually won that series, so Toronto is still putting
• 7:43
  Speaker 6: an effort. I guess they lost by one yesterday. Sonny
• 7:46
  Speaker 6: Gray is pitching for the Red Sox here, so the
• 7:49
  Speaker 6: Red Sox do get a legit starter here on the mound,
• 7:51
  Speaker 6: he's been good two point seven to eighty Ray, one
• 7:54
  Speaker 6: point one five whip. He is worse on the road though,
• 7:57
  Speaker 6: three point one four Roadie Ray. He pitched well last
• 8:01
  Speaker 6: time out. He struggled in one start two starts before that,
• 8:05
  Speaker 6: and not good because that was actually against Toronto at home,
• 8:09
  Speaker 6: where he's usually better, and he was cruising through that
• 8:11
  Speaker 6: game into the sixth inning, and then he all of
• 8:14
  Speaker 6: a sudden couldn't get anybody out anymore and lost the
• 8:17
  Speaker 6: game all in that one inning.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's a fluke, maybe it's not.
• 8:21
  Speaker 6: He pitched well against Toronto also at home earlier in
• 8:25
  Speaker 6: the season. His last start, like I said, that he made,
• 8:27
  Speaker 6: was good, So he seems to be kind of back
• 8:30
  Speaker 6: on track here.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: His season has been.
• 8:33
  Speaker 6: Pretty good, his hit rates pretty low, his walk rate
• 8:35
  Speaker 6: is low, strike out rate is decent. However, against Toronto,
• 8:40
  Speaker 6: he actually generally is not good. They have one hundred
• 8:43
  Speaker 6: and twenty six at bats against him, a two seventy
• 8:45
  Speaker 6: eight average, eight ten ops, twenty two to fourteen strike
• 8:49
  Speaker 6: out walk ratio. So situation I think favors the Red
• 8:52
  Speaker 6: Sox with a starting pitching matchup on the surface, looks
• 8:56
  Speaker 6: good for the Red Sox, But he started digging into
• 8:57
  Speaker 6: these numbers and I start to question it. Jameson tie
• 9:01
  Speaker 6: On is pitching for the Blue Jays here, he's making
• 9:04
  Speaker 6: his second start for them.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Cubs let him go.
• 9:07
  Speaker 6: He hasn't had a good season, a five point nine
• 9:09
  Speaker 6: to sixty RA, one point three to nine whip. I
• 9:12
  Speaker 6: think he's trying to come back from injury. He's been
• 9:15
  Speaker 6: better than this throughout his career, so if he's able
• 9:17
  Speaker 6: to somehow find himself again, he will be better. He's
• 9:21
  Speaker 6: been better at home this year four point sixty six
• 9:23
  Speaker 6: Homie araeled, though none of those games were with Toronto.
• 9:26
  Speaker 6: I believe he's made one start with Toronto so far,
• 9:28
  Speaker 6: and it was not good.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: Against Houston, he was okay.
• 9:32
  Speaker 6: I guess he kind of labored through four innings in
• 9:35
  Speaker 6: that when it wasn't a very good start really. However,
• 9:38
  Speaker 6: against the Red Sox, he actually has been good in
• 9:41
  Speaker 6: his career. Sixty at bats, two hundred average allowed, five
• 9:44
  Speaker 6: forty two ops, only six of their hitters have faced,
• 9:47
  Speaker 6: and Jaron Duran is a horrendous zero for fourteen off him.
• 9:51
  Speaker 6: Maybe they should just not put Taran in the lineup today, man,
• 9:55
  Speaker 6: Although his fielding is good, so they might still want
• 9:58
  Speaker 6: him out there. But man, and he's been hot with
• 10:00
  Speaker 6: the bat recently, but that is bad, dude.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else to say about that.
• 10:06
  Speaker 6: Fifteen to two strikeout walk ratio here also really bad
• 10:09
  Speaker 6: for the Red Sox against tie On, so I'm gonna
• 10:11
  Speaker 6: avoid the game. I think the spot favors the Red Sox.
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: I think if you just look at who really is
• 10:17
  Speaker 6: the better picture here? Obviously that's gray, but the matchup
• 10:21
  Speaker 6: numbers are completely opposite that staying away from this. Red
• 10:25
  Speaker 6: Sox are also a very high price. I think it
• 10:27
  Speaker 6: minus one sixty something. I don't think you can really
• 10:31
  Speaker 6: do it. It's a it's an unreasonable price. Eighty six
• 10:35
  Speaker 6: percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on
• 10:37
  Speaker 6: the Red Sox.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: It looks like they're public. Public's not gonna come in
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: on Toronto.
• 10:41
  Speaker 6: I'll tell you that when they know, like the Red
• 10:43
  Speaker 6: Sox are the better team, man have the better pitcher,
• 10:45
  Speaker 6: So the public is only going to be on the
• 10:47
  Speaker 6: Red Sox. It looks like maybe some of the money
• 10:49
  Speaker 6: also is but yeah, at that price, no thank you.
• 10:53
  Speaker 6: With these matchup numbers, no thank you. Money is also.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: Hitting the over at eight and a half.
• 10:58
  Speaker 6: There might be some argument for that because you have
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: some bullpens that just aren't in the best rest shape
• 11:04
  Speaker 6: right now. Even though they're both generally good bullpens, the
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: starters could potentially both.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Struggle a little bit here.
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: I'm not so sure, man, I don't have a good
• 11:13
  Speaker 6: read on the game though, So yeah, that I'm doing
• 11:16
  Speaker 6: nothing with that, Hindi, And what's up? Thanks for hanging out?
• 11:20
  Speaker 6: Is that what you usually do? Okay, you smoke and
• 11:24
  Speaker 6: listen to my show? All right, I'm fine with that. Well,
• 11:28
  Speaker 6: here's a play for you. The next game up is
• 11:30
  Speaker 6: going to make my card. Carrot's not gonna like this.
• 11:33
  Speaker 6: You know what the play is gonna be.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: If you know, if you listen to me at all
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: on the show, you know exactly what I'm doing here.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: It's well, maybe not exactly.
• 11:42
  Speaker 6: It's gonna be the Mets first five, which I found
• 11:45
  Speaker 6: in a nice price at plus one seventeen. I think
• 11:47
  Speaker 6: mostly you're gonna find it around plus one ten or
• 11:50
  Speaker 6: so at most of the books. This is that b
• 11:52
  Speaker 6: Jym book that we have here that tends to lag
• 11:55
  Speaker 6: behind in the numbers. If you want to take the
• 11:57
  Speaker 6: Mets in the full game, you can get like plus
• 11:59
  Speaker 6: one two wenty's something on it. And I don't disagree
• 12:02
  Speaker 6: with the Mets full game. I just think the biggest
• 12:04
  Speaker 6: advantages in the starting pitching matchups.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: That's what I'm focusing on.
• 12:08
  Speaker 6: Although I think the situation is decent for the Mets
• 12:10
  Speaker 6: because the Braves are coming.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Up beating the Yankees yesterday and the returning home even
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: though it's not.
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: It's not a full return home spot because they only
• 12:20
  Speaker 6: had one road series there at the Yankees. That's still
• 12:24
  Speaker 6: a big series though, and now the Braves are returning
• 12:26
  Speaker 6: home from that.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: They have a huge lead in their division.
• 12:29
  Speaker 6: They don't really have to worry that much about what's
• 12:31
  Speaker 6: going on in their division right now in my opinion,
• 12:33
  Speaker 6: especially not the last place Mets. Although the Mets have
• 12:36
  Speaker 6: sneakily actually been hot, like basically since the trade deadline,
• 12:41
  Speaker 6: So the Mets are playing better baseball all of a sudden.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: I think maybe it's.
• 12:44
  Speaker 6: Like the pressure is just lifted and now the Mets
• 12:47
  Speaker 6: all of a sudden look like a decent team. I
• 12:50
  Speaker 6: don't know, but I think the Braves can be in
• 12:51
  Speaker 6: a letdown spot off of the big series against the Yankees.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: Every game was close. Braves blew the first game.
• 12:58
  Speaker 6: We got it right on the show, but it should
• 12:59
  Speaker 6: have been a loss for us on the show. But yeah,
• 13:03
  Speaker 6: the Braves are able to win the last game yesterday.
• 13:05
  Speaker 6: Every game was a one run game. Meanwhile, the Mets,
• 13:08
  Speaker 6: yeah they look good. They just blew out the Pirates yesterday.
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: But the Pirates have not been playing well. Mets are
• 13:13
  Speaker 6: on a nice run here, won five of their last
• 13:15
  Speaker 6: six games. They're in the middle of a road trip here,
• 13:19
  Speaker 6: coming in from Pittsburgh, but I prefer that to the
• 13:21
  Speaker 6: Braves returning from beating the Yankees. So I think the
• 13:25
  Speaker 6: Mets are gonna be coming into this with some motivation.
• 13:28
  Speaker 6: Man Like, they look like they're trying to win right now,
• 13:31
  Speaker 6: and why wouldn't they try to win against the Braves,
• 13:33
  Speaker 6: you know what I mean, try to spoil it a
• 13:36
  Speaker 6: little bit for the first place team here. Plus, I
• 13:39
  Speaker 6: think they have the better starting pitcher, which is Christian Scott,
• 13:41
  Speaker 6: who you know have backed on the show multiple times.
• 13:44
  Speaker 6: He's got a three point one five VRRA and one
• 13:46
  Speaker 6: point two six whip is not great, as you'll find out.
• 13:50
  Speaker 6: His problem is the walks, but he's a really good
• 13:53
  Speaker 6: strikeout pitcher and advanced analytics guys that's usually what they like.
• 13:57
  Speaker 6: So I'm potentially agreeing with them on Scott that I
• 14:01
  Speaker 6: think he's good and he has huge strikeout stuff, which
• 14:03
  Speaker 6: is good at the major league level. He's a little
• 14:06
  Speaker 6: bit better on the road. His opponent batting average is
• 14:10
  Speaker 6: below two hundred on the road, although his ERA is about.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: The same on the road.
• 14:14
  Speaker 6: He's pitching pretty well recently, and most of his recent
• 14:18
  Speaker 6: starts have been pretty good, although he doesn't go that
• 14:20
  Speaker 6: deep into most of them. But again we're gonna limit
• 14:22
  Speaker 6: it to the first five here. Although I don't really
• 14:25
  Speaker 6: dislike them Mets bullpen either, so again I think you
• 14:27
  Speaker 6: could go full game, but that Braves do probably have
• 14:30
  Speaker 6: a bullpen edge. Scott did face the Braves two starts ago,
• 14:34
  Speaker 6: and he was really good against them in New York.
• 14:36
  Speaker 6: He struggled against him in the start before that here
• 14:39
  Speaker 6: in Atlanta back on July third, but I'm not as
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: concerned about that. He's got a high strikeout rate, Like
• 14:45
  Speaker 6: I said, low hit rate, but his walk rate is high,
• 14:47
  Speaker 6: so that's the one thing he really needs to fix.
• 14:49
  Speaker 6: But overall against Atlanta he's been good against them. They
• 14:53
  Speaker 6: have fifty six at bats against him, so they've seen
• 14:55
  Speaker 6: him a bunch now, and they still really have only
• 14:58
  Speaker 6: had that one successful game against him one seventy nine average,
• 15:02
  Speaker 6: five to sixty two o ps, twenty one to six
• 15:04
  Speaker 6: strikeout walk ratio, So we have a decent sample to
• 15:07
  Speaker 6: work with now, and Scott has had the upper hand
• 15:09
  Speaker 6: against the Braves bats and he's going up against Bryce Elder,
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: who I don't think is good. Three point six to
• 15:16
  Speaker 6: nine ERA one point two whip. I know that looks fine.
• 15:19
  Speaker 6: He is pretty good at home three e RA at home.
• 15:22
  Speaker 6: He pitched really well over his last three starts as well.
• 15:25
  Speaker 6: Really his last four starts didn't face the Mets in
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: any of them. But last time he faced the Mets
• 15:30
  Speaker 6: on the road. Against the Mets, he got absolutely destroyed.
• 15:33
  Speaker 6: The Mets lit him up with a bunch of hits
• 15:36
  Speaker 6: in the middle of June. Maybe not a good sign
• 15:39
  Speaker 6: for Elder. Other thing that's not really good great sign.
• 15:42
  Speaker 6: He's not really a great strikeout pitcher. His hit rate
• 15:45
  Speaker 6: is pretty good, his walk rate is mediocre. Advanced analytics
• 15:49
  Speaker 6: guys STI don't really like him, although his strike up
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: rate is at least high enough you think they wouldn't
• 15:55
  Speaker 6: really dislike him that much. But what I'm looking at
• 15:57
  Speaker 6: here mostly is I don't think Elder is as good
• 15:59
  Speaker 6: as got to be honest, Scott, I think has the
• 16:01
  Speaker 6: way higher ceiling. At this point, we've seen what elder
• 16:04
  Speaker 6: ceiling is, and we've also seen him be really really bad.
• 16:09
  Speaker 6: Elder against the Mets has been really bad. We have
• 16:12
  Speaker 6: a fifty six at bat sample size again here, and
• 16:14
  Speaker 6: they have a three point thirty nine average against him
• 16:17
  Speaker 6: one thousand and eight ohps seven to four strike out
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: walk ratio.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: So I like Scott in this one.
• 16:22
  Speaker 6: I like the spot better as well, the Scott spot
• 16:25
  Speaker 6: as well. We're gonna take the Mets in the first
• 16:27
  Speaker 6: five here. I look at the bullpen usage. By the way,
• 16:30
  Speaker 6: if you do want to play Mets full game, Atlanta
• 16:32
  Speaker 6: used four relief pitchers yesterday they had to save the
• 16:35
  Speaker 6: game against the Yankees yesterday. The Braves, excuse me, use
• 16:38
  Speaker 6: four relief pitchers yesterday. The Mets only use one over
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: the last two days, so the Mets bullpen is rested here.
• 16:46
  Speaker 6: So I wouldn't really disagree with you playing the Mets.
• 16:48
  Speaker 6: I would not disagree with you playing the Mets full
• 16:51
  Speaker 6: game as well. Even though I'm focusing on the first
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: five here, the Braves do still have the better bullpen
• 16:57
  Speaker 6: their number three. The Mets are pretty good though at
• 17:00
  Speaker 6: number six. So again, full game is definitely an option here,
• 17:04
  Speaker 6: and you'll get a better price on it with the
• 17:06
  Speaker 6: Mets money line. Full game Atlanta is the better offense
• 17:10
  Speaker 6: the ranked eighth. The Mets are moving up though, at
• 17:13
  Speaker 6: least to twenty six that have been better recently. Do with
• 17:18
  Speaker 6: all that information what you want, But my play is
• 17:20
  Speaker 6: the Mets. Here, Atlanta looks like a very public side.
• 17:22
  Speaker 6: They already dropped from an open or minus one fifty
• 17:25
  Speaker 6: eight all the way down to minus one forty. So
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: the money has come in against Atlanta from what I
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: could see here, although they have eighty percent of the
• 17:32
  Speaker 6: tickets eighty two percent of the cash listed right now.
• 17:35
  Speaker 6: I think they're a very public side, is what I'm
• 17:37
  Speaker 6: getting from this. I think the money might actually be
• 17:39
  Speaker 6: coming in on the side of the Mets once we
• 17:41
  Speaker 6: see this all kind of flesh out. Public is also
• 17:45
  Speaker 6: playing the over in this one. I don't really have
• 17:47
  Speaker 6: a great feel for that. I mean, to me, it
• 17:51
  Speaker 6: feels more underach to me than an over. The totals
• 17:54
  Speaker 6: in eight eight and a half, but I'm not focused
• 17:55
  Speaker 6: on that. I'm playing the side Mets first five money line.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: A good program. Oh well, they have great.
• 18:04
  Speaker 6: It's background noisy as in that great dirty sock.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: What's up? Thanks for hanging out? All right? Let's see
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: here Baltimore and Minnesota.
• 18:15
  Speaker 6: This is an interesting one interesting situation with the starting
• 18:20
  Speaker 6: pitching matchup here. Minnesota's are turning on from a road
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: trip where they went all the way to the Pacific
• 18:25
  Speaker 6: Coast to Seattle, then Kansas City, than Milwaukee, and they
• 18:28
  Speaker 6: had a couple close losses to Milwaukee in there. And
• 18:30
  Speaker 6: you know what I always say, when a team returns
• 18:32
  Speaker 6: home from the road, bad spot.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: They have to get back to home life. It could
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: be a distraction. I think Minnesota's delusional.
• 18:38
  Speaker 6: They actually think they're gonna make the playoffs. Here It's
• 18:41
  Speaker 6: not gonna happen. Baltimore though. They sold to the trade deadline,
• 18:47
  Speaker 6: so Baltimore is not really playing with a whole lot
• 18:50
  Speaker 6: of effort right now. Except they did win yesterday in
• 18:52
  Speaker 6: a blowout against the Rangers, so they just ended a
• 18:54
  Speaker 6: losing streak. They're coming in from Texas here. I think
• 18:57
  Speaker 6: the spot is definitely better for Baltimore. They're in the
• 19:00
  Speaker 6: middle of a road trip, ended a losing streak there.
• 19:02
  Speaker 6: I think that'll give him some positive momentum. Return home
• 19:05
  Speaker 6: spot definitely a negative from Minnesota. And looking at the
• 19:08
  Speaker 6: starting pitching, I like Baltimore's starting pitcher better too. So
• 19:11
  Speaker 6: when I first started looking at this, I was thinking,
• 19:14
  Speaker 6: this looks like a game where you should play Baltimore,
• 19:16
  Speaker 6: but I do have some concerns with it. I still
• 19:19
  Speaker 6: am gonna agree with that, but I have some issues
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: with it. Baltimore I used four relief pitchers yesterday. They
• 19:25
  Speaker 6: have the way better bullpen as well. Minnesota use five.
• 19:29
  Speaker 6: Baltimore definitely has the bullpen edge. They ranked eleventh. They've
• 19:32
  Speaker 6: been pretty decent recently. Minnesota has not been good all season. Really,
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: they're at twenty eighth. Baltimore offensively is not as good
• 19:40
  Speaker 6: as Minnesota. They're nineteenth, and again they sold at the
• 19:43
  Speaker 6: trade deadline and Minnesota did not. Minnesota's twelfth actually tied
• 19:47
  Speaker 6: with the White Sox and the Red Sox tied with
• 19:50
  Speaker 6: the Colored Socks. Baltimore is going with Trevor Rodgers here.
• 19:54
  Speaker 6: He's turned his season around. He's been pretty good recently,
• 19:57
  Speaker 6: although his ear ray doesn't look great. At four point two,
• 20:00
  Speaker 6: he is fairly good. One point two to four whip
• 20:02
  Speaker 6: is also kind of mediocre. He is better on the
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: road though, four point zero three. Roady I raigm. He's
• 20:08
  Speaker 6: really been pretty good over the past like two months. Really,
• 20:12
  Speaker 6: like he doesn't really have any bad starts in here,
• 20:15
  Speaker 6: so there's not really a lot to dislike about the
• 20:17
  Speaker 6: way he's pitching right now.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: He started off the season really bad, but he's been.
• 20:21
  Speaker 6: Pitching well for a long time now, and he had
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: a good season last year too with Baltimore. He's got
• 20:26
  Speaker 6: a reasonably low hit rate here. He doesn't really walk
• 20:29
  Speaker 6: many guys, so his command is fairly good. Although he's
• 20:31
  Speaker 6: not a huge strikeout guy, but because he doesn't walk
• 20:34
  Speaker 6: that many guys, his strikeout walk ratio is still pretty good.
• 20:38
  Speaker 6: Rogers against Minnesota is also fairly good. In thirty four
• 20:43
  Speaker 6: at bats to sixty five average is kind of average,
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: or maybe even a little bit high in this day
• 20:48
  Speaker 6: and age, but they haven't hit for power against him.
• 20:51
  Speaker 6: They have a six to twenty nine ohps and thirty
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: four at bats eight to two strike out walk ratio.
• 20:56
  Speaker 6: I would say Rogers does have the upper hand against Minnesota,
• 20:59
  Speaker 6: and I think he's better than Dean Creamer, who's pitching
• 21:03
  Speaker 6: for Minnesota here. The thing is, though, do you throw
• 21:07
  Speaker 6: the stats out for Dean Creamer here? I don't think
• 21:09
  Speaker 6: you can completely throw them out. But the thing is
• 21:12
  Speaker 6: he's facing the team that just got rid of him,
• 21:14
  Speaker 6: so that's a motivated spot, you know what I mean.
• 21:16
  Speaker 6: Baltimore literally just got rid of him at the trade deadline,
• 21:19
  Speaker 6: and now he's going to go up against them for
• 21:21
  Speaker 6: the first time. Usually that's a motivated spot when a
• 21:24
  Speaker 6: pitcher goes up against the team that got rid of him,
• 21:26
  Speaker 6: and this is so recent, it might be, you know,
• 21:29
  Speaker 6: raw Creamer likes it, raw man Man, he might have
• 21:36
  Speaker 6: motivation in this game. So I don't necessarily want to
• 21:38
  Speaker 6: fade him here. Although his numbers aren't good on the season,
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: five point nine to three RA one point three to
• 21:44
  Speaker 6: whip whip does indicate his RA should be a bit
• 21:48
  Speaker 6: better than that, and he's been a good home pitcher
• 21:50
  Speaker 6: this year for the most part.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Three point nine to four home he ray.
• 21:53
  Speaker 6: That was all with Baltimore, though he made one start
• 21:56
  Speaker 6: with Minnesota and he wasn't bad at Kansas City.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: He didn't really.
• 22:01
  Speaker 6: Strike many guys out in that game, but he had
• 22:03
  Speaker 6: a pretty decent start in that one. They lost the game,
• 22:06
  Speaker 6: but it was not his fault. They didn't really get
• 22:07
  Speaker 6: any run support there. He didn't get any run support.
• 22:11
  Speaker 6: He has one hit per inning this year, which is
• 22:13
  Speaker 6: very mediocre. His walk rate is okay, his strike out
• 22:16
  Speaker 6: rate is actually okay. So these numbers really aren't that bad.
• 22:19
  Speaker 6: But he's a lot, a lot of home runs. So
• 22:21
  Speaker 6: that's really been the thing that's driving is Ray way
• 22:24
  Speaker 6: up is he's a lot, a ton of home runs.
• 22:27
  Speaker 6: Creamer against Baltimore, though, the team that just got rid
• 22:31
  Speaker 6: of him, they have eighteen at bats against him. They
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: have five guys who have faced him, presumably when they
• 22:36
  Speaker 6: were on different teams, including Narvaez who just got traded
• 22:39
  Speaker 6: from the Red Sox. Creamer has had the upper hand
• 22:42
  Speaker 6: against these guys, though. He has a one sixty seven
• 22:44
  Speaker 6: average against here, four seventeen ops four to two strike
• 22:48
  Speaker 6: out walk ratio, and he's unfamiliar to the rest of them.
• 22:51
  Speaker 6: So I actually think both starters might be okay to
• 22:55
  Speaker 6: go here. I think the first five under is actually
• 22:59
  Speaker 6: the better way to play this game, and the money
• 23:00
  Speaker 6: seems to kind of be agreeing with an under here.
• 23:03
  Speaker 6: It's eight and a half for the full game, fifty
• 23:05
  Speaker 6: eight percent of the ticket, seventy percent of the cash
• 23:07
  Speaker 6: in the under. I wonder I haven't really done this,
• 23:09
  Speaker 6: so I wonder if I switched to first half.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I think I've done that before.
• 23:12
  Speaker 6: It's so you can see the numbers four and a
• 23:14
  Speaker 6: half in the first five here, but I think you
• 23:19
  Speaker 6: don't see the percentages here though, unfortunately for the first
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: five market, but it might kind of mimic what's going
• 23:24
  Speaker 6: on with the full game here. Fifty eight percent of
• 23:26
  Speaker 6: tickets seventy percent of the cash in the under first
• 23:28
  Speaker 6: five under makes sense to me Minnesota's bullpen and think
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: you have to exclude them, but I think the sturdy
• 23:34
  Speaker 6: pitchers actually both might do well here.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Their matchup numbers look decent.
• 23:38
  Speaker 6: Creamer is definitely the worst of the two, but he
• 23:40
  Speaker 6: looks like he has a motivational angle here. I still
• 23:44
  Speaker 6: don't disagree with Baltimore on the money line either, though
• 23:47
  Speaker 6: they're like minus.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: One twelve or so here, it looks.
• 23:50
  Speaker 6: Like money the line hasn't really moved on the money
• 23:53
  Speaker 6: line seventy four percent of tickets eighty one percent of
• 23:55
  Speaker 6: the cash on Baltimore, I think the spot is better
• 23:58
  Speaker 6: for Baltimore. I still think Rogers is than Creamer overall,
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: and Baltimore has the better bullpen, so I do lean
• 24:04
  Speaker 6: Baltimore in that game as well, but I think a
• 24:06
  Speaker 6: first five underactionally might be the better approach in that game.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: ESPN is never going to hire me for obvious.
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: Reasons never gonna happen, and I don't even know what
• 24:20
  Speaker 6: I really want to work for them.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 24:22
  Speaker 6: Philadelphia at Saint Louis For some reason, this game.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: Is televised on Fox Sports One.
• 24:29
  Speaker 6: Okay, Saint Louis just beat Colorado to win that series yesterday.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: They're staying at home.
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: Saint Louis is going nowhere, but they might get up
• 24:37
  Speaker 6: for a game against Philly because Philly is considered to
• 24:39
  Speaker 6: be one of the better teams, even though I think
• 24:41
  Speaker 6: they're overrated.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: Philly just salvaged.
• 24:44
  Speaker 6: The last game against the Blue Jays and now they're
• 24:46
  Speaker 6: starting a road trip, so it's not really a bad
• 24:48
  Speaker 6: spot for Philly. I think starting a road trip is
• 24:51
  Speaker 6: usually a focused spot, and they just lost a series
• 24:54
  Speaker 6: and salvage the last game, so they probably have.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: A little bit of momentum here.
• 24:59
  Speaker 6: The starting pitching matchup in this game, though, is definitely
• 25:02
  Speaker 6: not elite. To put it that way, The pitching throughout
• 25:06
  Speaker 6: this game doesn't look good, so obviously my first reaction
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: to seeing all this was over probably makes sense. In
• 25:12
  Speaker 6: this game, Philly used five relief pitchers yesterday, and they're
• 25:16
  Speaker 6: not really a great bullpen either. Saint Louis only used three,
• 25:19
  Speaker 6: but these are both pretty fadable bullpens. Philadelphia's ranked eighteenth,
• 25:23
  Speaker 6: but they have a mid four ZRA which is not good.
• 25:26
  Speaker 6: Saint Louis actually has the better ERA, but the ranked
• 25:28
  Speaker 6: twenty first. I don't really think they're a good bullpen either.
• 25:31
  Speaker 6: Maybe they have a little bit of an edge here
• 25:33
  Speaker 6: based on the rest and whatever if you like the
• 25:36
  Speaker 6: over though, you got to deal with some offenses that
• 25:38
  Speaker 6: aren't really that good. Philadelphia twenty first, and they're not
• 25:41
  Speaker 6: as good on the road Saint Louis twenty fifth, and
• 25:44
  Speaker 6: Saint Louis is not as good at home, so both
• 25:46
  Speaker 6: teams are actually in the bad home road split for
• 25:51
  Speaker 6: their offenses year. And it's a more pitcher friendly park here,
• 25:54
  Speaker 6: but the pitching is pretty bad in this game. Andrew
• 25:57
  Speaker 6: Painter is getting the start for Philly basically because they
• 26:00
  Speaker 6: don't really have anybody else to fill that fifth role,
• 26:02
  Speaker 6: and also he does have some upside at least he's
• 26:05
  Speaker 6: still young, but he's really struggled this season. What is
• 26:08
  Speaker 6: his rookie season six point four to eighty RA, one
• 26:11
  Speaker 6: point five to seven WHIP.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: He's been not really any better on the road, I mean.
• 26:16
  Speaker 6: His home road splits are pretty insignificant, but six point
• 26:19
  Speaker 6: three to five roadyra higher road upon a batting average though.
• 26:23
  Speaker 6: I believe they send him to the miners in mid
• 26:26
  Speaker 6: June for a bit over a month, and since he's
• 26:28
  Speaker 6: come back, he's made two starts and he's actually been
• 26:30
  Speaker 6: a little bit better. He had a decent start against
• 26:33
  Speaker 6: Baltimore where he went pretty deep into the game, and
• 26:35
  Speaker 6: then he didn't go as deep against Washington, but he
• 26:37
  Speaker 6: kind of held them off the board, and that was
• 26:39
  Speaker 6: that game where Washington scored a ton of runs in
• 26:41
  Speaker 6: extra innings, which obviously had nothing to do with Painter
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: or at that point. So he's actually been a little
• 26:46
  Speaker 6: bit better since going back down to the Miners. He
• 26:49
  Speaker 6: still has way too high of a hit rate, though
• 26:51
  Speaker 6: he allows way too many home runs here in his
• 26:53
  Speaker 6: major league.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: Appearances.
• 26:56
  Speaker 6: So far as walk rate is okay, he doesn't really
• 26:59
  Speaker 6: walk that many guys, I guess, but his strike up
• 27:01
  Speaker 6: rate is kind of mediocre as well, so he doesn't
• 27:04
  Speaker 6: come up and like blow guys away. This might be
• 27:08
  Speaker 6: a reasonable matchup for him, though, because it's not a
• 27:10
  Speaker 6: powerful offense, it's a pitcher friendly park, and Saint Louis
• 27:13
  Speaker 6: hasn't seen him so and he's pitching a little bit
• 27:16
  Speaker 6: better right now, so that's kind of keeping me away
• 27:18
  Speaker 6: as well from actually wanting to play the over here.
• 27:21
  Speaker 6: Painter could actually maybe have a little bit of an
• 27:24
  Speaker 6: edge here against this offense that hasn't seen him. Maybe,
• 27:28
  Speaker 6: although that hasn't helped him out that much this year,
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: but possibly my man Hunter Dobbins is getting the start
• 27:34
  Speaker 6: for Saint Louis.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: He's been okay, He's a serviceable pitcher.
• 27:38
  Speaker 6: I would say three point sixty ra one point three whip.
• 27:42
  Speaker 6: He's been a little bit worse at home though, three
• 27:44
  Speaker 6: point seventy nine. Homye Ra pitched fairly well last time
• 27:47
  Speaker 6: out against the Yankees.
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: Got no run support though.
• 27:50
  Speaker 6: But he usually does step it up to play the
• 27:52
  Speaker 6: Yankees because of the whole thing. I don't know his
• 27:55
  Speaker 6: father getting rejected by the Yankees, if that's even true.
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: Who knows.
• 27:59
  Speaker 6: Maybe he was just telling himself that to get really
• 28:02
  Speaker 6: motivated against somebody he was on the Red Sox, but
• 28:04
  Speaker 6: he always kind of stepped it up against the Yankees
• 28:07
  Speaker 6: for whatever reason.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: And he's also the one that made that quote where
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: if the.
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: Yankees are the only team I'm willing to offer me
• 28:15
  Speaker 6: a contract, I just retire instead or whatever. Whatever he
• 28:19
  Speaker 6: said something like that. I was like, Man, this guy
• 28:21
  Speaker 6: hates the Yankees. Hell yeah. And he's not from Boston.
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: He's from Texas.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: So I don't know, but I like it. Man.
• 28:29
  Speaker 6: Dobbins has been okay, Like he hasn't put his team
• 28:31
  Speaker 6: out of like any game that he started, at least.
• 28:34
  Speaker 6: Sometimes he doesn't really go that deep, but he'll he
• 28:37
  Speaker 6: won't really like kill you in a game.
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: Usually.
• 28:39
  Speaker 6: His hit rate is alright here. His walk rate is
• 28:42
  Speaker 6: okay as well, really just okay. Numbers across the board.
• 28:45
  Speaker 6: Strikeout rate is also okay. And he's gonna be facing
• 28:48
  Speaker 6: another offense that hasn't seen him.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: This is what are we talking about again, Philly.
• 28:53
  Speaker 6: Yeah, Philly has never faced him, So both pitchers might
• 28:57
  Speaker 6: have a little bit of an edgure of the unfamiliarity there.
• 29:00
  Speaker 6: I don't know how strong it'll be, because I don't
• 29:02
  Speaker 6: think either pitcher is really that strong. The total is
• 29:04
  Speaker 6: pretty high, and it kind of has to be because
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: we're not talking about really good pictures here.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Totals at nine here, it's right on that key number.
• 29:12
  Speaker 6: The money is hitting the over sixty one percent of
• 29:15
  Speaker 6: tickets ninety four percent of the cash on the over.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: I probably still agree with that, Like, this.
• 29:20
  Speaker 6: Is not a game that I like, But I think
• 29:22
  Speaker 6: if you needed, you know, if you wanted any opinion
• 29:25
  Speaker 6: for me on this game, I would probably still say
• 29:27
  Speaker 6: the over, which is.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: My first instinct.
• 29:31
  Speaker 6: Stick with your gut man, But there are some reasons
• 29:34
  Speaker 6: that both pitchers could actually pitch okay here. But if
• 29:37
  Speaker 6: you're talking about at least one of the pictures potentially
• 29:39
  Speaker 6: failing and then the bullpens in this game, it seems
• 29:42
  Speaker 6: like there are more things that line up towards an
• 29:44
  Speaker 6: over than an under, and the money is all over
• 29:47
  Speaker 6: Saint Louis here, which I don't really have a good
• 29:49
  Speaker 6: read on the on the side here, seventy five percent
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: of tickets are on Philly, eighty nine percent of the
• 29:55
  Speaker 6: cash of Saint Louis. Philly is a slight favorite, so
• 29:58
  Speaker 6: you'd get Saint Louis an underdo if you want to
• 30:01
  Speaker 6: play Saint Louis. What I will say is their bullpen
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: is more rested here. Dobbins is kind of the more
• 30:06
  Speaker 6: established pitcher and we've actually seen him pitch reasonably well,
• 30:10
  Speaker 6: whereas Painter really, we haven't really seen that yet, and
• 30:14
  Speaker 6: I keep saying I think Philly is overrated and not
• 30:16
  Speaker 6: as good as their record, So there are I guess,
• 30:19
  Speaker 6: maybe more indicators for the Saint Louis side than the
• 30:21
  Speaker 6: Philly side. Whatever I think over is probably the better
• 30:25
  Speaker 6: approach there. Texas and Anaheim, I consider putting this one
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: on my card. Anaheims are turning over from a road trip,
• 30:33
  Speaker 6: which of course is a negative, especially they're having to.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: Fly back to the Pacific Coast.
• 30:38
  Speaker 6: Not good, and Anaheim's a bad team and they're completely
• 30:40
  Speaker 6: out of it, so a lot of negatives here, having
• 30:44
  Speaker 6: to return home, distraction, get back to family life. However,
• 30:47
  Speaker 6: it's Texas who's ahead of them in their own division,
• 30:50
  Speaker 6: so you know, maybe they do want to show up
• 30:52
  Speaker 6: for this game or for this series just because they
• 30:55
  Speaker 6: do have a chance to maybe spoil the season for
• 30:58
  Speaker 6: Texas because Texas is trying to win this division, like
• 31:02
  Speaker 6: Texas's easiest path to the playoffs is to win this
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: division rather than try to get that last wildcard spot,
• 31:08
  Speaker 6: which is gonna be kind of chaotic. So Anaheim might
• 31:12
  Speaker 6: have reason to show up for that reason, but they're
• 31:14
  Speaker 6: still having to come back home deal with those distractions,
• 31:16
  Speaker 6: They're having to go from east coast to west coast
• 31:19
  Speaker 6: for a kind of late game, and I tell you
• 31:20
  Speaker 6: have to readjust your biological clocks, so that's not that easy.
• 31:24
  Speaker 6: Texas is coming in from Texas though, so it's not
• 31:27
  Speaker 6: that much easier for them. They're only traveling across one
• 31:31
  Speaker 6: fewer time zone here, but they're starting a road trips.
• 31:34
  Speaker 6: I think it is a better spot for Texas anyway here,
• 31:37
  Speaker 6: So Texas does have an edge of the situation, although
• 31:40
  Speaker 6: they did just you lose a four game win streak
• 31:43
  Speaker 6: with that loss to Baltimore yesterday. Texas was playing pretty
• 31:46
  Speaker 6: well for a little bit there. Possibly that could hang
• 31:49
  Speaker 6: them over losing a win streak. But you know you're
• 31:52
  Speaker 6: gonna get motivation out of Texas because they're trying to
• 31:54
  Speaker 6: get into the playoffs, so they can't really afford to
• 31:57
  Speaker 6: overlook anybody here. So I would say motivation is still
• 32:00
  Speaker 6: on the side of Texas here. The situation is still
• 32:03
  Speaker 6: on the side of Texas here. Starting pitching, though, I
• 32:06
  Speaker 6: would say, is not in favor of Texas year. The
• 32:09
  Speaker 6: bullpen probably is, even though Texas bullpen hasn't been that
• 32:12
  Speaker 6: good this year. The only these two guys out of
• 32:15
  Speaker 6: the bullpen yesterday. Anaheim's bullpen is not very good. They
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: use three guys out of the bullpen. Anaheim's ranked twenty second,
• 32:21
  Speaker 6: Texas nineteenth.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: Out of the bullpen.
• 32:23
  Speaker 6: But I would give Texas the bullpen edge here, especially
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: given that last year they were really good out of
• 32:28
  Speaker 6: the bullpen and they have some of those guys still there.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Offensively, Texas is also better.
• 32:33
  Speaker 6: They're sixteenth, which I think might overrate them a little bit,
• 32:36
  Speaker 6: but Anaheim's really been a pretty poor offense and they
• 32:39
  Speaker 6: sold guys off at the trade deadline. They're twenty seventh,
• 32:42
  Speaker 6: so they're basically Mike Trout is pretty much their offense
• 32:45
  Speaker 6: again at this point, and sometimes they don't even have
• 32:47
  Speaker 6: him because he seems to be heard all the time,
• 32:49
  Speaker 6: although he's there right now. But Anaheim's twenty seventh in
• 32:52
  Speaker 6: offense not good.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: Texas has McKenzie.
• 32:54
  Speaker 6: Gore on the mound here. I think he's not as
• 32:57
  Speaker 6: bad as his era looks four point five to five
• 32:59
  Speaker 6: era one point two to four whip. He has good
• 33:03
  Speaker 6: strikeout stuff and is hard to hit. His problem has
• 33:06
  Speaker 6: always been he's too wild and he isn't good on
• 33:09
  Speaker 6: the road and That's kind of my main concern here
• 33:11
  Speaker 6: because I like the first five under in this game.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: I like both starting pitchers here, and.
• 33:15
  Speaker 6: I would exclude the bullpens because I don't really trust
• 33:17
  Speaker 6: either of them.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: The problem is Gore is not good on the road.
• 33:22
  Speaker 6: Five point seventy nine roadie right two forty eight up
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: on a batting average isn't really that bad, but he
• 33:27
  Speaker 6: is worse on the road by one and a half runs,
• 33:30
  Speaker 6: so he pitches a lot better in Texas' pitcher friendly stadium.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: He's pitched pretty well.
• 33:35
  Speaker 6: Recently though, his last three starts have all been pretty
• 33:38
  Speaker 6: good at least, but his walk rate is still a concern.
• 33:41
  Speaker 6: He's got a low hit rate, he's got a high
• 33:43
  Speaker 6: strikeout rate. Walk rate is the main concern here, though
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: it's really not that bad. So yeah, overall, I think
• 33:48
  Speaker 6: he's decent, and he is I believe, pretty good against
• 33:51
  Speaker 6: Anaheim as well.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: They're not a good offense.
• 33:53
  Speaker 6: He's on into a two fifty average, six to seventy
• 33:55
  Speaker 6: three ohps and fifty six at bats.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: A lot of fifty six is out there today.
• 34:00
  Speaker 6: Fifteen to seven strike out walk ratio is not good,
• 34:02
  Speaker 6: so again, the walks have kind of been an issue here,
• 34:05
  Speaker 6: but he has generally good numbers against Anaheim, so I
• 34:08
  Speaker 6: do still lean more towards him pitching well here than not.
• 34:12
  Speaker 6: I do worry about him on the road, although Anaheim
• 34:14
  Speaker 6: has not hit well at home. Anaheim's got Redebt Meurs
• 34:17
  Speaker 6: on the mound, and I think he's good, as you
• 34:19
  Speaker 6: know from watching this show.
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: Four point one two ERA one point one.
• 34:23
  Speaker 6: Whip is definitely solid, though, and his record sucks because
• 34:26
  Speaker 6: his offense behind him sucks. He's been a little bit
• 34:29
  Speaker 6: better at home four point zero six Homi Ra, but
• 34:32
  Speaker 6: he's been pretty good either way. Didn't really go too
• 34:35
  Speaker 6: deep into his last couple out he's on. Anaheim's lost
• 34:37
  Speaker 6: his last six starts, but a lot of that has
• 34:40
  Speaker 6: not been his fault. I mean, they have really not
• 34:42
  Speaker 6: put a lot of runs on the board here the
• 34:44
  Speaker 6: first couple of them. Yeah, he didn't pitch that well,
• 34:46
  Speaker 6: but he's done pretty well for starts in a row. Again,
• 34:49
  Speaker 6: if you look at his overall numbers, somewhat similar to Gore.
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate, high strikeout rate.
• 34:55
  Speaker 6: His walk rate is slightly concerning, but really not even
• 34:59
  Speaker 6: like his isn't really that bad either. The biggest concern
• 35:02
  Speaker 6: with him is actually the home run ball, so he's
• 35:05
  Speaker 6: got to kind of get that under wraps a little bit.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: But even that isn't really that bad.
• 35:09
  Speaker 6: He's going up against a Texas offense and I don't
• 35:11
  Speaker 6: think is that good, and he's kind of had the
• 35:14
  Speaker 6: upper hand against them, and sixty nine at bats uh
• 35:17
  Speaker 6: two zero three average allowed, so they haven't really hit
• 35:20
  Speaker 6: him for contact. They have hit him for a bit
• 35:22
  Speaker 6: of power, though they do have six home runs off
• 35:24
  Speaker 6: him from six different hitters the seven thirty ops. That
• 35:28
  Speaker 6: doesn't concern me as much, although well maybe it should though,
• 35:31
  Speaker 6: because again that seems to be kind of a trend
• 35:33
  Speaker 6: right debt me is allowing too many home runs. Like
• 35:36
  Speaker 6: he's a good pitcher and he's got twenty nine strikeouts
• 35:38
  Speaker 6: six walks here against Texas.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: That's a really good ratio high strikeout rate.
• 35:43
  Speaker 6: Problem is it's like if somebody connects with him, they're
• 35:45
  Speaker 6: gonna launch the ball. That's kind of the issue with him.
• 35:48
  Speaker 6: But I like him. I think he is good and
• 35:49
  Speaker 6: he has ability to strike out a lot of guys.
• 35:52
  Speaker 6: A couple of concerns in year, but I think the
• 35:54
  Speaker 6: way to play this is to go under in the
• 35:55
  Speaker 6: first five here. What's the total here, let me say
• 36:00
  Speaker 6: totals eight, so you might actually get a decent number
• 36:02
  Speaker 6: in the first five here.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: The money is kind of on the over though.
• 36:05
  Speaker 6: Sixty five percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the
• 36:07
  Speaker 6: cash on the over I don't really agree with that.
• 36:10
  Speaker 6: The money's also coming in on Anaheim seventy nine percent
• 36:12
  Speaker 6: of tickets on Texas, ninety four percent of the cash
• 36:15
  Speaker 6: on Anaheim. Texas is about minus one fourteen or so.
• 36:19
  Speaker 6: Money has dropped. The money line has dropped on Texas
• 36:22
  Speaker 6: a little bit as well, so the actual money's on Anaheim.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: But I just told you, I'm there's.
• 36:26
  Speaker 6: No way I'm gonna recommend Anaheim in the Return Home
• 36:29
  Speaker 6: Spotlight that and I think if you do play Anaheim,
• 36:31
  Speaker 6: you got to play them first five only. And the
• 36:33
  Speaker 6: reason why you'd be doing it is because debtvers might
• 36:36
  Speaker 6: be able to outpitch Gore, because Gore is not that
• 36:38
  Speaker 6: good on the road, So that would kind of be
• 36:40
  Speaker 6: the one real reason to take Anaheim. That and maybe
• 36:43
  Speaker 6: Texas shouldn't be favored necessarily on the road because there
• 36:47
  Speaker 6: everybody knows Texas has something to play for here in Anaheim,
• 36:50
  Speaker 6: doesn't really, so that's kind of the other thing. It
• 36:52
  Speaker 6: means you'll have to pay a little bit of a price,
• 36:54
  Speaker 6: but the price on Texas doesn't seem that Exorbitanto me here,
• 36:58
  Speaker 6: I still like the first five under better than anything
• 37:00
  Speaker 6: else in that game, though, and.
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: It was almost on my card.
• 37:04
  Speaker 6: The total in that game, it looks like it's mostly
• 37:07
  Speaker 6: around four for the first five.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: We see four and a half here with heavy underjuice.
• 37:12
  Speaker 6: It's at least not a three and a half, So
• 37:16
  Speaker 6: you know, there might be a little bit more leeway
• 37:18
  Speaker 6: there if you do try that. No, no, you're not
• 37:21
  Speaker 6: allowed to dream. What all right, Colorado and Arizona. Arizona
• 37:29
  Speaker 6: could be in a letdown spot here, man, Arizona just
• 37:32
  Speaker 6: beat the Dodgers in a series.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Kind of ridiculous.
• 37:35
  Speaker 6: The Dodgers have lost what seven of their last eight
• 37:38
  Speaker 6: now or eight of their last nine, whatever it is,
• 37:41
  Speaker 6: could be a let down spot for Arizona, right, Like,
• 37:43
  Speaker 6: you go from winning a series against the Dodgers to
• 37:46
  Speaker 6: now all the Rockies are coming to town. So situation
• 37:49
  Speaker 6: I think does not really favor Arizona. Hear Colorado's starting
• 37:53
  Speaker 6: a road trip coming on or no, they're in the
• 37:54
  Speaker 6: middle of a road trip my mistake coming in from
• 37:56
  Speaker 6: Saint Louis, Colorado. I mean, they're probably just play out
• 38:00
  Speaker 6: the stretch, not really overlooking anybody at least, you know
• 38:03
  Speaker 6: what I mean. They'll show up to try to, you know,
• 38:05
  Speaker 6: play spoiler against a divisional fall like Arizona or whatever
• 38:08
  Speaker 6: you want to call it, something like that. Colorado is
• 38:11
  Speaker 6: at a huge bullpend disadvantage though, so I would not
• 38:13
  Speaker 6: want to back their bullpen. Ever, they only used two
• 38:17
  Speaker 6: guys yes today, Arizona also on the use two. Arizona's
• 38:20
  Speaker 6: ranked seventh in bullpenal though I don't think they're that good,
• 38:23
  Speaker 6: but Colorado is definitely worse. Colorado's twenty seventh and one
• 38:27
  Speaker 6: of the worst bullpens this game. Not in course field
• 38:30
  Speaker 6: though the offense is Arizona twenty second, not very good there,
• 38:34
  Speaker 6: Colorado fourth tied with pittsbverth sous. Colorado has had the
• 38:37
  Speaker 6: better offense here. Colorado's got Gabriel Hughes on them on here,
• 38:41
  Speaker 6: who's one of their only capable starting pitchers. He's really young,
• 38:45
  Speaker 6: and he's off to a decent start in his career,
• 38:48
  Speaker 6: although his team hasn't really backed him up. But he's
• 38:51
  Speaker 6: got a four point twenty five VRORA one point one
• 38:53
  Speaker 6: to eight whip is definitely not bad. He's been a
• 38:56
  Speaker 6: little bit worse on the road. Hilariously, he actually has
• 38:58
  Speaker 6: pitched better in core field so far. I don't know how,
• 39:02
  Speaker 6: but he's got a four point nine to one Roady
• 39:04
  Speaker 6: Ray wasn't really great last time out against Tampa Bay A,
• 39:07
  Speaker 6: though he did still he did strike out a lot
• 39:09
  Speaker 6: of guys in that one, but that was kind of
• 39:11
  Speaker 6: an insane game. Look at his numbers overall, not really bad.
• 39:15
  Speaker 6: Hit rate is okay, walk rate is not bad. Strike
• 39:18
  Speaker 6: out rate is decent as well, So I think Hughes
• 39:21
  Speaker 6: might actually be all right. He's going up against a
• 39:24
  Speaker 6: team that I assume has not faced him, even though
• 39:26
  Speaker 6: they're in the same division as him. Yeah, Arizona's not
• 39:28
  Speaker 6: faced him before, so he might have that unfamiliarity edge
• 39:31
  Speaker 6: where the opposing offense has to kind of figure him
• 39:33
  Speaker 6: out on the fly.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: So I don't hate how Hughes sets up here.
• 39:38
  Speaker 6: I don't know where Garrett's at right now, but his
• 39:39
  Speaker 6: guy Michael Soroka is coming back from the injured list
• 39:44
  Speaker 6: for Arizona here. I think he's been injured for about
• 39:46
  Speaker 6: a month or so. He's coming back, and he was
• 39:49
  Speaker 6: having a good season before he went down, a three
• 39:51
  Speaker 6: point seventy rray and one point zero nine whip. And
• 39:54
  Speaker 6: you know me, I consider him to be a veteran pitcher,
• 39:57
  Speaker 6: and I like veteran pitchers coming back from injury because
• 40:00
  Speaker 6: I think they're usually pumped to get back out there
• 40:02
  Speaker 6: and the team might get excited, Oh we get one
• 40:04
  Speaker 6: of our better starters back, let's rally behind him, you
• 40:06
  Speaker 6: know what I mean. So I think it's a good
• 40:08
  Speaker 6: spot when a pitcher does that, if they're a veteran
• 40:11
  Speaker 6: pitcher and the guys like him and Soroka also has
• 40:13
  Speaker 6: been good at home this year two point zero five
• 40:16
  Speaker 6: home y ra.
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: So yeah, he's been better at home again. He was
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: pitching well before he got hurt, and then that was
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: just it.
• 40:22
  Speaker 6: He got hurt in June, so he's been out for
• 40:25
  Speaker 6: almost two months now.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: Overall numbers good on the.
• 40:28
  Speaker 6: Season, pretty low hit rate, doesn't really walk anybody. Strike
• 40:31
  Speaker 6: out rate is decent as well. Looking at his numbers
• 40:34
  Speaker 6: against Colorado, pretty sure that they're good.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: I looked earlier today. Uh yeah, definitely.
• 40:42
  Speaker 6: In sixty seven at bats, two twenty four average allowed
• 40:44
  Speaker 6: six hundred oh ps seventeen to three strike out walk Racio,
• 40:48
  Speaker 6: So yeah, he's had the upper hand against the Rockies
• 40:50
  Speaker 6: offense here. So this is again, this would be a
• 40:53
  Speaker 6: game where I would go under in the first five here,
• 40:55
  Speaker 6: And the money does seem to agree with that one
• 40:57
  Speaker 6: sixty one percent of tickets on the over for the
• 40:59
  Speaker 6: full game ninety four percent of the cash on the under.
• 41:02
  Speaker 6: So some pretty strong money indicating towards the under.
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 41:05
  Speaker 6: Full game totals at eight and a half first five,
• 41:09
  Speaker 6: look looks like you might even be able to get
• 41:11
  Speaker 6: a five.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: It looks like it's four and a half juice to
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: the over.
• 41:15
  Speaker 6: That's crazy, dude, That is a decent number to be honest.
• 41:19
  Speaker 6: So yeah, that is how I would play that game.
• 41:21
  Speaker 6: I would go under in the first five. Obviously, I
• 41:23
  Speaker 6: gotta avoid Colorado's bullpend. I don't necessarily love Arizona's either,
• 41:27
  Speaker 6: but yeah, I think the starting pitching might actually show
• 41:30
  Speaker 6: up and do well in that one. The money's also
• 41:32
  Speaker 6: back in Colorado pretty strong, and I think some of
• 41:35
  Speaker 6: it is because of the letdown spot for Arizona, but
• 41:38
  Speaker 6: some of it is because the price is just kind
• 41:39
  Speaker 6: of insane in the minus one eighties, seventy six percent
• 41:43
  Speaker 6: of tickets on Arizona eighty nine percent of the cash
• 41:45
  Speaker 6: on Colorado. That high price, you know you're pretty much
• 41:48
  Speaker 6: not getting any value if you try to play Arizona there,
• 41:51
  Speaker 6: and plus the letdown off of the win against the Dodgers,
• 41:54
  Speaker 6: maybe that's part of the reason why the money's coming
• 41:56
  Speaker 6: in on Colorado as well. I don't disagree with that,
• 41:58
  Speaker 6: but again, if you play Colorado, you should play it
• 42:00
  Speaker 6: first five only because they definitely don't have a bullpen advantage,
• 42:04
  Speaker 6: So I would play it just hughes to kind of
• 42:06
  Speaker 6: duel Soroka here. But the money that's coming in on Colorado,
• 42:10
  Speaker 6: I think that is correlated to the under right because
• 42:14
  Speaker 6: if it's gonna be a lower scoring game, that means,
• 42:16
  Speaker 6: as I always say, the underdog has a better chance
• 42:18
  Speaker 6: to hang around in that game. And I think, yeah,
• 42:21
  Speaker 6: those things kind of go together, they go in line,
• 42:25
  Speaker 6: they're in line with each other.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: First five under is the way I would.
• 42:28
  Speaker 6: Play that game, though again you might even be able
• 42:30
  Speaker 6: to get a five on it. But of course the
• 42:32
  Speaker 6: oddsmakers kind of put the total, well, it's not even
• 42:35
  Speaker 6: that high for the full gameboutes at eight and a half,
• 42:37
  Speaker 6: because I was gonna say if it was like nine.
• 42:39
  Speaker 6: They're kind of signaling they think it's going to be
• 42:40
  Speaker 6: a bit of a higher scoring game, but it's not really.
• 42:43
  Speaker 6: So it's kind of weird that the first five seems
• 42:45
  Speaker 6: to you would think that the first five would be
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: a little bit on the lower side because the oddsmakers
• 42:51
  Speaker 6: have to know that the starting pitching in that game
• 42:53
  Speaker 6: is clearly better than the bullpens are, So I don't know.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: That's a little bit weird to me.
• 43:00
  Speaker 6: Next game is ESPN Unlimited, and this is my last
• 43:02
  Speaker 6: play of the day, and you probably already know what
• 43:10
  Speaker 6: this is gonna be. If if you see what this
• 43:12
  Speaker 6: game is, probably no surprise Milwaukee and San Diego under
• 43:17
  Speaker 6: seven and a half. It's at minus one twenty out
• 43:20
  Speaker 6: there at numerous shops, so I think you can find
• 43:23
  Speaker 6: a number that's very similar to that.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: This game just screams under to me for many, many reasons.
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: We have two good bullpens here, although Milwaukee did use
• 43:32
  Speaker 6: some of their guys yesterday, including their closer who they
• 43:35
  Speaker 6: used two days in a row, so he might be
• 43:37
  Speaker 6: unavailable here, but they do have a good.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: Bullpen in general.
• 43:40
  Speaker 6: San Diego's bullpen is good and more rested, and they
• 43:43
  Speaker 6: didn't really use their better relievers yesterday, So the bullpens,
• 43:46
  Speaker 6: I'm still going to back both of them here. I
• 43:48
  Speaker 6: think we're talking about two of like the top five
• 43:50
  Speaker 6: or six bullpens here.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: Anyway.
• 43:52
  Speaker 6: Milwaukee's ranked ninth, but they have I think the fourth
• 43:55
  Speaker 6: best ERA here. San Diego is ranked eighth, but I
• 43:58
  Speaker 6: think they might be next, might have the fifth best ERA.
• 44:01
  Speaker 6: So we're talking about good bullpens here. Milwaukee is a
• 44:05
  Speaker 6: good offense the rank seventh, but I think the pitching
• 44:07
  Speaker 6: can kind of hold them in check here, and San
• 44:09
  Speaker 6: Diego hasn't really been great offensively all year.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: Twenty fourth. This game is also in San Diego, which
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: we know is a pitcher friendly ballpark, something that might
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: help us out here as well. San Diego is staying
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: at home and they just beat the Astro.
• 44:23
  Speaker 6: So San Diego they're playing with some effort right now, man,
• 44:27
  Speaker 6: trying to get into the playoffs here. Playoffs, Yeah, so
• 44:31
  Speaker 6: they're giving some effort here. Milwaukee might give a little
• 44:34
  Speaker 6: bit less effort to be honestly, because Milwaukee's they're sitting
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: pretty well right now. They're obviously going to make the playoffs.
• 44:41
  Speaker 6: I would be pretty surprised at this point if they
• 44:43
  Speaker 6: don't win the NL Central, though, I think in my
• 44:44
  Speaker 6: preview I said the Cubs would win that division, and
• 44:47
  Speaker 6: there is still a chance that the Cubs do win
• 44:49
  Speaker 6: that But I think I wound up being correct about
• 44:51
  Speaker 6: saying that those two were the two actual legit teams
• 44:55
  Speaker 6: in the NL Central, and I didn't really think the
• 44:56
  Speaker 6: other teams were, although I thought Pittsburgh might be the
• 44:59
  Speaker 6: third best team. But whatever, I think my MLB preview
• 45:03
  Speaker 6: wasn't as bad as it was looking earlier in the season.
• 45:06
  Speaker 6: Milwaukee just beat Minnesota a couple of times. But now
• 45:09
  Speaker 6: they're starting a road trip, and you know, I think
• 45:11
  Speaker 6: that's a little bit of a negative. Well, I think
• 45:14
  Speaker 6: it's a positive generally starting a road trip. The reason
• 45:17
  Speaker 6: I think it's kind of a negative for Milwaukee here
• 45:19
  Speaker 6: as well is because it's a West coast trip, and
• 45:22
  Speaker 6: I think that first game out west, it's a little
• 45:24
  Speaker 6: bit of a negative because you have to adjust to
• 45:26
  Speaker 6: the time zone. If it's a late game, it can
• 45:30
  Speaker 6: mess with your biological clock. So I think it's a
• 45:32
  Speaker 6: positive and a negative from Milwaukee there.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: So I think there are some reasons to like San
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: Diego in this game.
• 45:37
  Speaker 6: I think they have more motivational reasons to show up,
• 45:40
  Speaker 6: and the travel spot is just better for them. They're
• 45:42
  Speaker 6: just staying at home, So I think San Diego there
• 45:45
  Speaker 6: are some reasons to like them here. But I'm looking
• 45:47
  Speaker 6: at the under as we already know if you look
• 45:49
  Speaker 6: at the starting pitchers here, I'm playing on Logan Henderson
• 45:53
  Speaker 6: a lot. He's pitching for Milwaukee. I still think he's
• 45:55
  Speaker 6: under the radar and people just haven't realized that he's good.
• 45:59
  Speaker 6: Although the odds maker just kind of know that, but
• 46:01
  Speaker 6: the public doesn't. Really the public's not going to know
• 46:04
  Speaker 6: his name, you know what I mean. But he's been
• 46:06
  Speaker 6: really good. Two point seventy RA point nine whip. He
• 46:09
  Speaker 6: was good last year when he pitched for Milwaukee as well.
• 46:12
  Speaker 6: He's been only slightly worse on the road three RRA.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: Not bad at all.
• 46:17
  Speaker 6: He's been lights out man for pretty much the whole season.
• 46:20
  Speaker 6: I don't I don't think he's He's eleven more the
• 46:22
  Speaker 6: tour in runs only once all.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: Season, So yeah, he's been very good.
• 46:27
  Speaker 6: Hasn't really thrown that many innings, which I think is
• 46:29
  Speaker 6: fine because they're getting later into the season, and you
• 46:31
  Speaker 6: you'd rather have a guy be.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: Fresh, and he is pretty fresh.
• 46:34
  Speaker 6: He missed some time there for about a month where
• 46:36
  Speaker 6: I think he was I think he was injured because
• 46:39
  Speaker 6: he's pitching well enough, I don't think they would have
• 46:41
  Speaker 6: sent him down. He's got a low hit rate, low
• 46:45
  Speaker 6: walk rate, high strike up rate. All those numbers are
• 46:47
  Speaker 6: good across the board. Against the San Diego Padres. They've
• 46:51
  Speaker 6: never faced him before, so he's a talented young pitcher
• 46:55
  Speaker 6: who has never been seen before by the opposing offense.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: So I think that's an extra advance him. They have
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: to figure him out on the fly.
• 47:02
  Speaker 6: So I'm not gonna be fading Henderson here, and in fact,
• 47:04
  Speaker 6: I'm gonna bank on him pitching well. But I'm also
• 47:07
  Speaker 6: gonna bank on Casey Mize here Man Miz has had
• 47:10
  Speaker 6: a good season, a three point four ERA, one point
• 47:13
  Speaker 6: zero nine whip. He's been really good at home two
• 47:16
  Speaker 6: point three six Homie Ray. However, that was all with Detroit.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: I get it.
• 47:21
  Speaker 6: He pitched really well with Detroit. Detroit traded him literally
• 47:24
  Speaker 6: right at the trade deadline. He was like one of
• 47:26
  Speaker 6: the last people to get traded. He made one start
• 47:29
  Speaker 6: with San Diego and he was awful at Arizona.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: He was terrible.
• 47:33
  Speaker 6: And I was shocked because I think I thought he
• 47:35
  Speaker 6: had good I think he had good numbers against Arizona.
• 47:37
  Speaker 6: I thought he was gonna do well. I'd be pumped
• 47:40
  Speaker 6: up to be playing for Well. I mean, he went
• 47:42
  Speaker 6: from one contender to another, really, so I don't know
• 47:44
  Speaker 6: if he's gonna be extra pumped or not.
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: But I don't know.
• 47:47
  Speaker 6: He really was bad in that start. But I think
• 47:49
  Speaker 6: that's an outlier, man. Maybe he was nervous.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know what it was.
• 47:53
  Speaker 6: I think it's a fluke because if you look at
• 47:55
  Speaker 6: what he what he's done all season, he's never been
• 47:57
  Speaker 6: anywhere near that bad.
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: That was his worst start of the season. It's not
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: even close.
• 48:03
  Speaker 6: He's got a low hit rate, his walk rate is decent,
• 48:05
  Speaker 6: his strike pretty good really, his strike out rate is
• 48:08
  Speaker 6: reasonable as well, not bad. Yeah, his numbers are not
• 48:11
  Speaker 6: bad across the board here man, And he allowed more
• 48:14
  Speaker 6: than three earned runs only one time. Prior to that
• 48:17
  Speaker 6: last start that he made more than three on runs.
• 48:20
  Speaker 6: He'd only allowed once and it was to the Yankees.
• 48:23
  Speaker 6: Since really early in the season when he had one
• 48:25
  Speaker 6: bad start against Minnesota.
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: But other than those.
• 48:27
  Speaker 6: Three starts, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs, and
• 48:29
  Speaker 6: all the rest of his starts on the season, he'll
• 48:32
  Speaker 6: be going up against Milwaukee, which I know is not
• 48:34
  Speaker 6: the easiest task. Milwaukee's a pretty good offense, but he's
• 48:37
  Speaker 6: done well against them in the past. A thirty nine
• 48:40
  Speaker 6: at bats, ten strikeouts, five walks isn't great. Two thirty
• 48:43
  Speaker 6: one average, five forty nine oh ps. Those are pretty
• 48:46
  Speaker 6: good numbers across the board here, and he's allowed no
• 48:48
  Speaker 6: extra mas hits to them, by the way, so they
• 48:51
  Speaker 6: have not been able to hit him for power, which
• 48:54
  Speaker 6: is kind of interesting because that that is kind of
• 48:56
  Speaker 6: the way that Milwaukee operates.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: They're not a power hitting team.
• 48:59
  Speaker 6: They're a contact hitting team, and they do a lot
• 49:02
  Speaker 6: with yeah, base running and hitting in good situations and
• 49:05
  Speaker 6: stuff like that, situational hitting. But whatever under, I think
• 49:08
  Speaker 6: is a pretty clear way to play this game.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: Seven and a half is the number here.
• 49:12
  Speaker 6: The money doesn't agree with me, apparently, sixty one percent
• 49:15
  Speaker 6: of tickets ninety two percent of the cash on the over,
• 49:18
  Speaker 6: I obviously do not agree with that under. I think
• 49:21
  Speaker 6: it's really pretty clear. I think you have a really
• 49:23
  Speaker 6: nice starting pitching matchup here. I expect Myz to bounce back.
• 49:27
  Speaker 6: He should do well in this It's a pitcher friendly park.
• 49:30
  Speaker 6: We're getting the hook on the key number of seven there.
• 49:33
  Speaker 6: Both bullpens are good as well.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 49:35
  Speaker 6: The only worry that you really have is that Milwaukee
• 49:39
  Speaker 6: used their bullpen a bit yesterday, so their closer is
• 49:42
  Speaker 6: probably unavailable here.
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: But San Diego might win.
• 49:45
  Speaker 6: The game and then Milwaukee wouldn't have to bring in
• 49:47
  Speaker 6: their closer anyway, and hopefully the game just ends with
• 49:50
  Speaker 6: a low scoring win for San Diego or something like that.
• 49:53
  Speaker 6: Seventy percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash on
• 49:56
  Speaker 6: Milwaukee their road favor here, I don't agree with Milwaukee.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: I I think even though they're in what is usually.
• 50:02
  Speaker 6: A focused spot to start a road trip, they're having
• 50:04
  Speaker 6: to go out west and adjust their biological clocks where
• 50:08
  Speaker 6: San Diego is staying at home, and I think San
• 50:11
  Speaker 6: Diego just has more to play for at this point
• 50:13
  Speaker 6: of the season. So I don't really agree with the
• 50:15
  Speaker 6: Milwaukee side. However, you could definitely make the argument Henderson
• 50:19
  Speaker 6: is better than Myz though, but I think the bullpen
• 50:22
  Speaker 6: advantage actually goes to San Diego here though, because there
• 50:27
  Speaker 6: I think they might be the better bullpen anyway, but
• 50:29
  Speaker 6: they're more rested, so I think they have a slight
• 50:31
  Speaker 6: bullpen edge here.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: Michael, what's up man Magic Johnson? Maybe?
• 50:37
  Speaker 6: I mean his name alone sounds like a gay porn actor,
• 50:41
  Speaker 6: so yeah, he might be.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Tampa Bay at the A's.
• 50:46
  Speaker 6: A's are returning on from a road trip where they
• 50:48
  Speaker 6: just beat the Red Sox twice. The A's are somehow
• 50:52
  Speaker 6: four and three against the Red Sox. We're competitive against
• 50:54
  Speaker 6: them in every game. Red Sox maybe overlooking them a bet,
• 50:57
  Speaker 6: I don't know, but the A's are kind of in
• 50:59
  Speaker 6: a bad spot. They are returning home from going to
• 51:02
  Speaker 6: Cincinnati and Boston, so they're traveling cross country, having to
• 51:05
  Speaker 6: readjust the Pacific time zone. It could mess with their
• 51:08
  Speaker 6: biological clock. Not a good spot. Could be a letdown
• 51:11
  Speaker 6: spot off of those wins against the Red Sox. Even
• 51:13
  Speaker 6: though they're playing Tampa Bay here, and you don't necessarily
• 51:16
  Speaker 6: overlook Tampa Bay because they have the best record in
• 51:18
  Speaker 6: the American League. Tampa Bay is already on the West
• 51:21
  Speaker 6: Coast and they're on fire right now. They won six
• 51:24
  Speaker 6: games in a row. I'm pretty shocked that they just
• 51:26
  Speaker 6: swept the Mariners on the road because Tampa Bay is
• 51:29
  Speaker 6: still not that good of a road team. And yeah,
• 51:33
  Speaker 6: those games are pretty much all close, but it's crazy
• 51:35
  Speaker 6: to me that the Mariners couldn't get any of those games.
• 51:39
  Speaker 6: Mariners better at home than Tampa Bay is on the road.
• 51:42
  Speaker 6: Very strange. Now the Raids are going into a very
• 51:45
  Speaker 6: different environment though they're going from a picture They went
• 51:47
  Speaker 6: from a very hitter friendly park Colorado to a very
• 51:50
  Speaker 6: picture friendly park to Seattle now to a very hitter
• 51:53
  Speaker 6: friendly park again to the A's.
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: Very very strange. Will they continue to this run? Maybe?
• 52:00
  Speaker 6: I mean, I think the spot is actually a little
• 52:01
  Speaker 6: bit better for Tampa because the A's again are having
• 52:04
  Speaker 6: to return home from the road, which is a negative already,
• 52:08
  Speaker 6: and having to readjust the Pacific time zone.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: Not good.
• 52:11
  Speaker 6: As far as the bullpens, we know the A's bullpen
• 52:14
  Speaker 6: is bad, even though they won.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: The game yesterday. Basically they used three relief pitchers. Tampa
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: Bay used three as well, But I think Tampa Bay's
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: got the better bullpen.
• 52:26
  Speaker 6: They're number two right now. I don't think they're quite
• 52:28
  Speaker 6: that good, but they're pretty good. Obviously they're better than
• 52:31
  Speaker 6: the A's, so I think are the worst bullpen in baseball.
• 52:34
  Speaker 6: They're ranked twenty ninth, but they have the worst ERA
• 52:36
  Speaker 6: by quite a bit.
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: They suck.
• 52:39
  Speaker 6: Tampa Bay has been actually better offensively at this point too.
• 52:42
  Speaker 6: They're ninth, tied with Miami. The A's are eighteenth. A's
• 52:46
  Speaker 6: have some offensive injuries right now. Tampa Bay's got Freddy
• 52:49
  Speaker 6: Peralta on the mound here. He's gonna have to do
• 52:52
  Speaker 6: something to turn this around.
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 52:53
  Speaker 6: I thought leaving the Mets would help him because I
• 52:56
  Speaker 6: thought maybe it was a motivational thing and being on
• 52:59
  Speaker 6: the Mets is not exciting and whatever. Peralta has been
• 53:01
  Speaker 6: good throughout his career, and he's not old yet. He
• 53:04
  Speaker 6: had a good career with Milwaukee. Like all of a sudden,
• 53:07
  Speaker 6: were really supposed to believe, he's all of a sudden
• 53:09
  Speaker 6: just this bad.
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: I'm still not really buying it. But these numbers are
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: not good.
• 53:13
  Speaker 6: Five point three seveny r RA one point five to
• 53:15
  Speaker 6: two whip way worse than what he's done throughout his career.
• 53:18
  Speaker 6: And he's been really bad on the road seven point
• 53:21
  Speaker 6: one to one roady rain. That's not good. So I
• 53:26
  Speaker 6: can't really come in and back him here. He just
• 53:28
  Speaker 6: fished in Colorado and that's a hitter friendly park, just
• 53:31
  Speaker 6: like the as is here, and he got knocked around
• 53:34
  Speaker 6: in that game. He was bad in that game. In
• 53:36
  Speaker 6: his first start with Tampa. I thought he'd do better
• 53:38
  Speaker 6: in that one. Nope, didn't happen. He was awful.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: His numbers on the season. His hit rate is way
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: too high. He's giving up a bunch of home runs.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: That's not good.
• 53:46
  Speaker 6: Usually his walk rate is the problem, but this year
• 53:49
  Speaker 6: it's kind of been more the hits that are the
• 53:51
  Speaker 6: main problem here. The walks are still not great, and
• 53:54
  Speaker 6: then his strike up rate is actually still okay. So yeah,
• 53:57
  Speaker 6: I mean, I still think he's, like you look at
• 54:00
  Speaker 6: his career, he's obviously better than this. So it's confusing
• 54:04
  Speaker 6: to me what's going on right now. His numbers against
• 54:07
  Speaker 6: the A's are kind of mediocre and thirty nine at
• 54:10
  Speaker 6: bats two eighty two average a lot is pretty high,
• 54:12
  Speaker 6: but they haven't hit him from power. They only have
• 54:14
  Speaker 6: a six zero eight ops against him, only one extra
• 54:17
  Speaker 6: base hit a double from McNeil, eight strikeouts, one walk,
• 54:22
  Speaker 6: so peralta. He does match up okay against this lineup,
• 54:27
  Speaker 6: but he's pitched awful on the road. He seems awful
• 54:30
  Speaker 6: in awful form right now. It's a hitter friendly park.
• 54:34
  Speaker 6: I mean, I don't know if I want to trust
• 54:35
  Speaker 6: Paralta really. Jacob Lopez is getting the start for the A's.
• 54:38
  Speaker 6: He has not been good five point six four ERA,
• 54:41
  Speaker 6: one point sixty three whip. He's been bad in this
• 54:44
  Speaker 6: stadium for obvious reasons, six point six to one home
• 54:47
  Speaker 6: ye Ray in this horrible hitter friendly ballpark. He's been
• 54:51
  Speaker 6: better recently though, over his past really three starts, he's
• 54:55
  Speaker 6: been a bit better.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: Those walk rate was kind of high there.
• 54:58
  Speaker 6: Most of those starts are on the road of the
• 55:00
  Speaker 6: He did pitch well against the Red Sox at home
• 55:01
  Speaker 6: and they lost an extra innings. The A's did in
• 55:04
  Speaker 6: that one pitch well on the road against Cincinnati last summer.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: But I don't trust Lopez still. I think this is
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: still I.
• 55:11
  Speaker 6: Wouldn't say that he's all of a sudden like finding something,
• 55:14
  Speaker 6: you know, like he showed some glimpses like this last year.
• 55:18
  Speaker 6: I don't really think it matters. He's not very good.
• 55:20
  Speaker 6: He's got a high hit rate, his walk rate's way
• 55:23
  Speaker 6: too high. He walks way too many guys. His strike
• 55:25
  Speaker 6: out rate is okay, He mostly does his damage with
• 55:28
  Speaker 6: like a curveball that has a lot of movement, doesn't
• 55:32
  Speaker 6: really throw hard. His numbers against Tampa Bay are actually
• 55:37
  Speaker 6: pretty good in seventeen at bats, not a huge sample, obviously,
• 55:40
  Speaker 6: six hitters have faced him. Two thirty five average allowed,
• 55:43
  Speaker 6: six forty seven ops. One extra base hit is a
• 55:46
  Speaker 6: home run from who else can and arrow Kevin Naro
• 55:51
  Speaker 6: three zero strikeout walk ratio there. That's the Kenyon Aro
• 55:56
  Speaker 6: Simpsons song. By the way, if people get that reference.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 56:01
  Speaker 6: I mean my instinct on this game was over and
• 56:03
  Speaker 6: maybe that's still right. I mean, something is not right
• 56:06
  Speaker 6: with Peralta right now. I wouldn't trust Lopez either. They're
• 56:09
  Speaker 6: both in the way worse that they're split. See, even
• 56:11
  Speaker 6: though they do have good matchup numbers. I would not
• 56:16
  Speaker 6: come in and try to play an under here. The
• 56:18
  Speaker 6: money looks like it is coming in on the over.
• 56:19
  Speaker 6: The totals at ten. It opened nine and a half
• 56:22
  Speaker 6: and then went right up to ten, which is fairly
• 56:25
  Speaker 6: typical of an A's home game. Fifty six percent of
• 56:27
  Speaker 6: tickets ninety four percent of the cash on the over,
• 56:29
  Speaker 6: So the money is indicating on the over.
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: I kind of agree. I think that is the way
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: I would play that, and the money's back in the A's.
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: I would not do that.
• 56:38
  Speaker 6: Eighty four percent of tickets on Tampa, eighty percent of
• 56:40
  Speaker 6: the cash on the A's. I think some of the
• 56:43
  Speaker 6: A lot of the reason for that is just that
• 56:45
  Speaker 6: Tampa is a high price, like minus one fifty something.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: But let's think about this.
• 56:49
  Speaker 6: I mean, the A's are returning home from the road,
• 56:51
  Speaker 6: like I said, they're having to travel across time zones.
• 56:54
  Speaker 6: Tampa has an advantage because they don't have to do
• 56:56
  Speaker 6: any of that here. And if you just think about this, Paralta,
• 57:00
  Speaker 6: you gotta say he's the better pitcher of her Lopez.
• 57:04
  Speaker 6: Like that's just the way that if Paralda is anything
• 57:07
  Speaker 6: like what he's done throughout his career, he's obviously better.
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: He's had the way better careers.
• 57:11
  Speaker 6: So yeah, I would lean Tampa, and I think that
• 57:14
  Speaker 6: probably the best way to play this game, actually, in
• 57:16
  Speaker 6: my opinion, is to play Tampa and make it like
• 57:19
  Speaker 6: a minus one run line or something. That's really what
• 57:22
  Speaker 6: I would do in this game. But the money is
• 57:23
  Speaker 6: completely disagreeing with that. The money is agreeing with the over,
• 57:26
  Speaker 6: and I do agree with the over as well in
• 57:28
  Speaker 6: that one.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: All right, I'll be right back. I guess it's around
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: the hour mark.
• 57:32
  Speaker 6: We had two more baseball games, only two WNBA games,
• 57:35
  Speaker 6: and that's it. No more plays than I'm giving out
• 57:37
  Speaker 6: though on the show. But I will be right back
• 57:39
  Speaker 6: and talk about the.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: Rest of these games. Give me a sec yep. Inside,
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven. Run
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: over the last two days after tonight it was just
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm gonna start off
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: this show. Horrible sound one in five. I don't even
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: know what to tell you about that. I just don't
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: want to do this anymore. I have never seen anything
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: not a good day at all.
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: OWN four, I.
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: Have not had had a good season. Man, with bookends
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: slump that I'm on, and the slump contain us, I've
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: browins hat man. I don't know what is going on
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: with the Bruins. March eight, is that what it is?
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: I don't even know it's March ninth. I think who
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man's back
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: with you.
• 58:42
  Speaker 6: Have the worst day that I could possibly have, back
• 58:45
  Speaker 6: with you as I always am until I die, at
• 58:49
  Speaker 6: least oh and two yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 58:53
  Speaker 6: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 58:57
  Speaker 6: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump,
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: the slump disconvens, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
• 59:20
  Speaker 6: All right, Uh, Houston and San Francisco is the next
• 59:23
  Speaker 6: game this This is a very unpredictable game. The starting
• 59:27
  Speaker 6: pitchers here, no no idea what we're gonna get in
• 59:31
  Speaker 6: this game. But I think if you play this game,
• 59:33
  Speaker 6: you're an insane person, to be honest. I mean, if
• 59:37
  Speaker 6: you actually have a good angle, I'll listen, obviously, But
• 59:40
  Speaker 6: for me, I have no idea. San Francisco's staying at home.
• 59:43
  Speaker 6: They just lost two games to Detroit here. San Francisco's
• 59:46
  Speaker 6: playing out the stretch. Not a whole lot to play
• 59:48
  Speaker 6: for here, So the motivation should be on the side
• 59:51
  Speaker 6: of Houston here, but everybody kind of knows that Houston
• 59:54
  Speaker 6: is already on the Pacific coast. They're coming in from
• 59:56
  Speaker 6: losing twice to San Diego here, so they don't have
• 59:59
  Speaker 6: to us to the time zone. Neither team does here.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 6: Houston is trying to hang on in the Al West,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 6: so they have something to play for it. Like I said,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 6: where San Francisco doesn't really and does San Francisco care
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 6: about spoiling the season for the Astros, I'm not really
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 6: so sure about that. I mean, these are not really
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 6: they're not rivals. As far as the bullpens are gonna sart.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 6: Houston I think has the better bullpen. Never thought to
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 6: be saying that they used two guys yesterday. San Francisco
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 6: I used three. San Francisco I thought would be good
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 6: because they were good last year. But the ranked twenty
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 6: fourth out of the bullpen here, and Houston is tenth.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 6: Houston has been a lot better recently after a horrible
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 6: start to the season. Out of the bullpen, Houston's sixth
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 6: in offense. They're the better offense here to San Francisco's seventeenth.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 6: San Francisco is not good offensively at home. Houston's going
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 6: with Hayden Wesnski here who I think he's been hurt
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 6: for a bit and he has only made two starts
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 6: so far this year.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: He was decent for Houston last year.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 6: Look at his his career has been decent, but he
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 6: hasn't really had really a full season as a starter ever.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 6: A lot of injuries kind of getting in the way
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 6: and stuff like that. I don't know what to think
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 6: about him this year. He is a three point eight
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 6: six ERA one point two to nine whip. That whip
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 6: does indicate his ERA should probably be a bit higher
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 6: than it is. He's not good on the road, really
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 6: four point seven to six roady ra with a much
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 6: higher opponent batting hourgs. But he's only made two starts
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 6: so far, and his road start, if you look at it,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 6: it wasn't really that bad. He picked up a win
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 6: in both of his starts. Actually the road start didn't
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 6: last quite as long. Kind of got lucky escaping against Anaheim,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 6: but he wasn't awful, and then he was better against
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 6: Toronto last time. But those are two bad offenses. However,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 6: San Francisco is not that good of an offense, so
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 6: I don't think he's gonna really have to step up
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 6: that much in class to face San Francisco here. Overall,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 6: he's got about one hit per inning so far. Walk
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 6: rate is okay. I guess strike got rate is kind
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 6: of low. Not a whole lot to look at there,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 6: Like you got to look at his career numbers, you
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 6: know what I mean, and especially last year because he
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 6: was a starter for Houston, that's probably the best indicator,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 6: and he was decent, Like he didn't really walk many guys.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: His strike up rate was okay.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 6: His hit rate was decent as well, So I think
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 6: he's an okay pitcher against San Francisco.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: They've seen him before. Actually, they have four.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 6: Guys who have seen him fourteen at bats and they
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 6: have actually beaten him. They have a two eighty six
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 6: average and nine oh five ops against them one to
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 6: one strike out walk ratio.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: There's a home run in there from a Domis.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 6: Really it's a Domis that does all the damage here
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 6: though the only other hit is a single from Devers,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 6: and these other guys haven't done anything against him, so
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 6: it's a small sample size. I'm not about to say
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 6: that wiz Nesky's actually gonna do bad here, and I
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 6: don't really think he will. San Francisco is going with
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 6: Blade hid Well, which is very, very unpredictable. He's been
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 6: good this year, but he's mostly been pitching out of
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 6: the bullpen three point one eighty one point whip. He
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 6: has a zero ERA at home, which is kind of insane.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 6: He hasn't pitched that much. He's only pitched seventeen innings,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 6: but that's still kind of crazy. He made a start
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 6: last time, and he actually went five innings. They let
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 6: him go one hundred pitches, which is interesting, and he
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 6: pitched fairly well. It was in Texas pitcher friendly bark,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 6: but this is also a pitcher friendly park here. It
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 6: looks like he's not a huge strikeout pitcher.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is decent.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 6: He doesn't really walk that many guys, so I don't know, man,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 6: he might be serviced to one. It looks like they're
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 6: just unleashing him and letting him go. So he might
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 6: actually try to go five innings again here or something
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 6: like that. Possibly, we'll see. He'll be going up against
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 6: I already forgat Houston. I always forget, man, It's not
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 6: the way my mind works. Houston's never seen him before,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 6: so he might have a little bit of an advantage
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 6: there in unfamiliarity, but this is a very unpredictable game.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: I have no idea what to do with it. There
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: might be some arguments for the under in this one.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 6: The money's kind of backing the over sixty one percent
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 6: of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash on the
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 6: over eight and a half. I think at least Houston's
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 6: bullpen is fairly good. The pitchers are hard to predict
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 6: that they might do okay here pitcher friendly Ballpark.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: San Francisco's offense isn't really that good. Houston's might be.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 6: The money is not back in Houston, though, seventy one
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 6: percent of tickets, sixty four percent of the cash on them.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 6: I think it's because everybody kind of knows Houston is
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 6: the team with something to play for, so I think
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 6: the public is kind of coming in on them. They're
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 6: down to minus one forty something from an opener of
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 6: minus one sixties, so some real money seems like it's
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 6: come into back the Giants in this game. I'm not
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 6: gonna do it. I mean giants to me, they don't
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 6: really have a whole lot to play for here, and
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 6: you still don't really know exactly what they're doing here.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 6: It's possible that Tidwell has an opener in front of
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 6: him or something like that, but he pitched well enough
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 6: last time. They'll probably just have him start again here.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 6: No idea what they're doing really, but yeah, it's a crazy,
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 6: crazy game, like impossible to predict for me. Possible underplay
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 6: there though, is what I would say, But yeah, I.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: Don't really know. And then we have Kansas City and
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 6: Dodgers are returning on from a road trip or they
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 6: went to the Cubs and then the Diamondbacks, so their
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 6: last leg of the journey isn't too bad where they're
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 6: only gonna have to cross like one time zone here
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 6: to get back home, so the time zone adjustment might
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 6: not be as bad for them here. But it's a
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 6: return home spot, and you know I always talk about
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 6: the return home spot is bad.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: It's a distraction. You gotta get back to home life. Whatever.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 6: The Royals are not a team they're really gonna take seriously,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 6: you wouldn't imagine. Although the Dodgers have been playing bad baseball,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 6: Like I said, I think they've lost eight of their
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 6: last nine games, so they might show up for once,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 6: you know what I mean, because I think they've gone
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 6: on cruise control and it's just like, come on, guys,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 6: like we gotta do something here.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: There's no way you can play the Dodgers in this game.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 6: I mean, first of all, I wouldn't play in them anyway,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 6: because they're in a return home spot, which is bad.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 6: But you're paying way too much of a price because
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 6: it's schoolable on the mound for them, So the price
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 6: is just way too high on the Dodgers.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: Dodgers use four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 6: Their bullmen has been kind of iffy going up against
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 6: Kansas City, though Kansas City has a really bad bullpen,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 6: so the Dodgers clearly have the better bullpen out of
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 6: these two. Kansas City used two guys yesterday. Kansas City's
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 6: ranked dead lass and bullpen. I think they're the second
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 6: worst bullpen behind the A's. Dodgers are ranked twelfth right now.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 6: They're an okay bullpen. I would say Dodgers are number
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 6: two in offense. Washington's overtaken them again for number one.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 6: You know, ps Lee, you could definitely make the argument
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 6: the Dodgers are the best offense in baseball, though, I
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 6: would not argue with you if you said that.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: And then what do we have?
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 6: I never remember anything anymore. Kansas City is twenty at
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 6: the end. They're not a good offense, so the Dodgers
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 6: have the better offense. The Dodgers have the better bullpen.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 6: The situation doesn't really favor them here. But Kansas City
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 6: does have a negative in their situation. They're starting a
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 6: road trip, so they're coming in from the Central time zone,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 6: and I know I starting a road trip is usually
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 6: a focused spot, and you're probably gonna get up to
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 6: play the Dodgers, but getting motivationally up can only do
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 6: you so much. Like Kansas City was probably up for
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 6: these games against the Cubs, and they still lost two
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 6: out of three because the Cubs are obviously the better team,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 6: like basically all around. But the other negative for Kansas
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 6: City here is the traveling to the Pacific time zone.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 6: I don't like that having to adjust to the times
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 6: when to play the late games. This is the late
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 6: late game here, so I don't really love that. Noah
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 6: Cameron is pitching for Kansas City.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: I still like him. I think he's not bad.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 6: He's got a four point three seven e RA one
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 6: point two to nine whip mediocre, but he's actually been
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 6: good on the road. So Kansas City moving their walls
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 6: in at home seems to really have kind of fucked
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 6: with him at home because I think he was pretty
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 6: good at home last year but not this year. But
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 6: on the road, he's been good this year. Three point
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 6: five to four Roady Ray, so he's pitched way better
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 6: on the road. His opponent batting average is way better
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 6: as well. He's been really good over his last three
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 6: starts too, although his team only won one of them.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 6: He's got at least seven innings in all three and
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 6: he's allowed one run total across the last twenty three
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 6: innings here with a high strikeout rate going on two
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 6: in all of those. That's twenty four strikeouts in that
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 6: span with how many walks is this six?
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that's good. His strike out rate's gone up.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 6: He's been striking a lot of guys out for a
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 6: while now, since like the beginning of July. His walk
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 6: grade is still a little bit questionable, but the strike
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 6: out rate's gone up. Yeah, He's not allowed many runs
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 6: at all over his last few starts. His hit rate
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 6: is okay for the season here. Walk grade is okay
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 6: as well. Strike got rate also okay. So yeah, mediocre numbers,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 6: but he's definitely in good form right now, so he
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 6: might actually be able to come out and pitch okay
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 6: in this game, even though you got to step it
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 6: up to play the Dodgers, and he hasn't really been
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 6: that successful against him in the past. Seventeen at bats
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 6: is not a lot, but most of their hitters have
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 6: seen him. He's on him to a one seventy six average.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 6: They have not hit him for contact, but they've hit
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 6: him for power. They have a nine to forty seven
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 6: op against him, with home runs from Muncie and Otani
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 6: in there. Three to three strike at walk ratio not
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 6: great either, But I kind of lean more towards camera
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 6: and actually pitching decently here. I mean, this is a
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 6: small sample size, and he's been good on the road
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 6: and in good form recently, and obviously I do not
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 6: think Schooball is gonna pitch poorly either.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: The Royals don't hit well on the road.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 6: They know school ball, but I don't think that's gonna
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 6: be enough, you know, even though they're really familiar with them,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 6: it's not gonna be enough. Schoobl's had a good season,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 6: even though people were basically saying he was dead when
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 6: he got injured.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: Whatever he am. Okay, they seem to be saying he's
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: dead again because the Dodgers lost the first start that
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: he made. But he was pretty good in that start.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: It wasn't his fault.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 6: The Dodgers, their elite offense, only backed him with one run,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 6: and then the bullpen wasn't good either.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: What can you do? Two point eight one era point
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: nine two whip for school ball.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 6: He's been a little bit worse at home this season,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 6: with a three point five to four home y ray.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 6: This will be his first home start with LA, though
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 6: his first start right with LA, he faced the Cubs,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 6: which is not an easy to task in Wrigling. He
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 6: held him to two runs at six innings.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: That was pretty good. Six strikeouts, two walks, four hits.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 6: Obviously not a bad start, quality start from him there,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 6: But oh no, he took the loss and they lost
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 6: that game. Yeah, well that was because his team didn't
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 6: do anything to help him. Man, I mean, what else
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 6: can you do? Like I said, I think he'll be
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 6: pumped up for his first game in LA, Like I'm
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 6: not really good. I'm not concerned about school ball, obviously,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 6: because why would I be. He's good pretty much every
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 6: time he takes them out. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 6: low walk rate, high strikeout rate, nothing concerning there. He's
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 6: facing a weak offense that's definitely a week on the
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 6: road in Kansas City. Even though they have one hundred
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 6: and eighteen at bats against him, as I alluded to,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 6: they have not done anything against it. They have a
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 6: thirty three to four strikeout walk ratio against him. That's domination.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 6: With his command numbers there two twelve average allowed, six
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 6: nineteen obs allows, he's pretty much completely stopped them. And
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 6: one guy in Kansas City's lineup has all four home
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 6: runs against him.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: And take a guess who that is.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 6: It's the same guy who would always is Salvador Perez,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 6: who seems like he's been on this team for forever.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 6: If I'm not mistaken, I think Perez was World Series MVP,
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 6: like in what was that like twenty fifteen or something
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 6: like that. Maybe if Zach is out there somewhere he
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 6: can remind us of that. But yeah, it's it's crazy, man.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 6: Although I don't really expect Perez to do a lot
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 6: of damage here either because he's an old man and
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 6: he also has struck out thirteen times against Schoolble and
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 6: has no walks against him. Yeah, obviously I think school
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 6: will pitch well here. This game looks like an under
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 6: to me, but you can't really factor in the bullpens
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 6: into that. I mean, Kansas City's bullpen is a train wreck.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 6: I don't love the Dodgers' bullpen either. I think first
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 6: five under is kind of the way to play this,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 6: but the full game total seven and a half Cameron
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 6: might be a little bit questionable still too, He's not
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 6: exactly great against the Dodgers. You're gonna be looking at
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 6: a low num or probably three and a half. Obviously,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 6: I'm gonna leave it alone, but I do think if
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 6: you forced me to play this game, I think that's
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 6: probably what I would do. Is first five under. We
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 6: could see what the number is on it. It looks like, yeah,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 6: we actually it looks like there is a four on
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 6: it out there. I don't know which well we can
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 6: see which books actually, never mind, you can see the
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 6: books here.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so a couple of the books have a four
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: with juice. Although it's heavy juice.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 6: It looks like as far as the online books, though,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 6: it looks like you might have to go with a
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 6: three and a half on that. Some of them are
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 6: not really tracked, like DK didn't even have a number here,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 6: So I don't know what's up with that money coming
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 6: in in the over for the full game though, sixty
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 6: percent of tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 6: the over. But it's a seven and a half, man,
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 6: It's a seven and a half for a reason, and
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 6: I know one of the big reasons is because it's
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 6: school ball. But still, I mean, it kind of makes
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 6: sense if you wanted to, I guess you could play
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 6: Kansas City under their team total, and if you wanted
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 6: to try to back Schooble that way, and the fact
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 6: that Kansas City is not good offensively on the road,
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 6: I don't know if i'd want to do that either,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 6: because the Dodgers bullpen could blow that for you. So
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 6: maybe Kansas City under in the first five, but you're
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 6: gonna need him to score one run at most probably
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 6: if you're gonna do it that way, So you need
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 6: school to be pretty much lights out. There's not a
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 6: lot of room for error if you do something like that,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 6: which is why I think maybe giving you a little
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 6: bit a few more outs and having the first five
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 6: under might make a little more sense there. And the
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 6: money's coming out of Kansas City pretty strongly. Ninety one
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 6: percent of tickets on the Dodgers. A lot of it
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 6: is because they're minus three hundred here. I mean, you
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 6: can't lay a price like that seventy two percent of
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 6: the cash on Kansas City, you know. I mean, there
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 6: are some arguments to try to play Kansas City here.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 6: I would say if you do, you should limit it
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 6: to the first five. You'll be taking a run line
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 6: with them just to keep it close in the first five.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 6: Maybe they'll be able to do it. It's still return
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 6: home spot for the Dodgers and Kansas City, you know,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 6: Cameron might be able to kind of keep them in
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 6: that thing for a little while. The other reason why
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 6: the under I think just kind of makes it in general, though,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 6: is the hitters for Kansas City, We're all gonna have
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 6: to adjust to the biological clock change out west, and
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 6: then the Dodgers return home spot could be distracted hitting
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 6: there as well. So yeah, I still think first five
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 6: under is the best approach in that game. But I
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 6: don't really love the number on it, all right, and
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 6: then we have WNBA. These games kind of suck. Toronto
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 6: at Atlanta, I mean, this is a mismatch. Atlanta just
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 6: lost in Washington, but they're only returning home from that
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 6: single game trip there. They don't have a big game
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 6: up next. Two games from now they start some big games,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 6: but they play Connecticut next. They're not gonna look ahead
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 6: to that. They did already beat Toronto on the road
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 6: by nineteen points not long ago, on July seventeen, so
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 6: they might not take Toronto seriously here either. But it
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 6: is a home game on Peacock, so maybe they will
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 6: kind of show up for that.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: Peacock and NBC Sports.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 6: Toronto's lost a bunch of games in a row. They're
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 6: playing bad that they've lost eight games in a row.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 6: They just lost in Portland, but now they're having to
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 6: go from Portland all the way east to face Atlanta,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 6: which is not that easy, although going to the East
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 6: is easier than going back to the West, and they
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 6: lost to mostly good teams during that stretch, including Atlanta,
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 6: so they might be able to show up for Their
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 6: last game is a loss to the worst team they
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 6: played in that entire stretch Portland. I don't know, man,
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 6: I mean I think if I guess I would lean
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 6: to Toronto plus the points here, it would mostly just
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 6: be that you're probably paying too much for Atlanta. It's
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 6: all the way up to fourteen and a half from
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 6: an opener of eleven and a half, So maybe there's
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 6: an injury on the Toronto side or I don't even know,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 6: but fourteen and a half is kind of insane. Fifty
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 6: six percent of tickets on Atlanta, eighty three percent of
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 6: the cash on Toronto. I probably lean with that market
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 6: read towards taking the points to Toronto, but no strong
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 6: opinion for me really on this total is really high
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 6: at eighty seven seven and a half. I think mostly
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 6: because Toronto's defense sucks. Atlanta's defense is better. But the
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 6: thing is Atlanta's probably gonna want to try to slow
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 6: it down. I would think it just defend better in
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 6: this game and to get in and get out. So
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 6: that kind of is more of an indicator towards taking
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 6: the points and maybe a little bit of an indicator
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 6: towards the under Although it looks like the market Reid
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 6: is kind of saying over it looks like there's a
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 6: lot of public money on the under I don't It
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 6: makes no sense to me. But when I see Atlanta,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 6: I just kind of the defense. So it's kind of
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 6: weird to see that total that high. But maybe I
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 6: don't know. The WNBA, I don't know. Ladies Ball Man,
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 6: Ladies Balls will be the WNBA in twenty twenty seven.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 6: And then we have a really ugly night game Chicago
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 6: at Seattle on USA Network. First thing I noticed here though,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 6: is Seattle has a really bad record, Like I think
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 6: they have the worst record in the league, yet they're
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 6: only a one and a half point dog here, Like,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 6: it looks way too easy to play Chicago where it's
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 6: basically like a pick the winner. Here, Chicago looks like
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 6: they're gonna be without Taylor here.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: In this game.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 6: Maybe Sidney Taylor I think. I don't really know who
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 6: these players are. She's one of their better scores, I guess,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 6: so she's gonna be for Chicago here, and Skyler Diggins
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 6: I think might be their best player. And she's not
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 6: playing right now for Chicago either. She did play in
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 6: that game, she hasn't played, actually, she hasn't played for
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 6: a month at this point. What am I saying Yeah,
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 6: so Chicago's been an injured team for quite a while.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: Here, we'll see what happens with that. But this is
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: a depleted Chicago team.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 6: So that's part of the reason why this line Seattle's
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 6: actually favored. It looks like here at some books, that's
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 6: part of the reason why. But you know, the public,
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 6: if they look at this, they're gonna take Chicago, like,
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 6: why is the team with the better record an underdog here?
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 6: But that has be looking towards Seattle because it looks
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 6: way too easy to play Chicago. And I know it
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 6: did not work out yesterday with Phoenix, but this is
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 6: like generally something you do want to consider pretty strongly.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 6: When it looks like it's a line that's trying to
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 6: bait you into playing a certain side, I think you
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 6: want to look towards the other side. This line, to
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 6: me looks like it is trying to bait you into
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 6: playing Chicago. Here.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: Seattle's been awful for a while. They've lost how.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 6: Many games in a row is this? I don't even know,
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 6: at least a dozen. Probably they're playing bad. The reason
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 6: why I can't really play Seattle though, is they're returning
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 6: over from a road trip so I don't like that.
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 6: They've been on the road since July thirty first, and
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 6: you know, a return home spot not very good. You
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 6: could get distracted, have to get back to home life. However,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 6: they are already kind of in the area. They just
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 6: played in Portland, so I talked about that game on Saturday.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 6: They had to go from the East coast all the
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 6: way back west, so I thought that was a negative
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 6: for them. I leaned Portland in that one for that reason,
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 6: and Portland did get the win. So now Seattle is
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 6: at least going to be adjusted to the time zone.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 6: But it is still the case that they are returning home,
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 6: so they're gonna have stuff to do back at home,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 6: and it could still be a distraction. Chicago is a
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 6: revenge game though, kind of for a loss in Chicago
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 6: on July fifteenth, So maybe they'll get up for that reason,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 6: or maybe Chicago will overlook them for that reason. Seattle
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 6: does have Portland next, and they did just lose to
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 6: Portland in their last games. That's a quicker revenge spot
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 6: and more of a geographic rival now, if you will.
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 6: Even though Portland's a new team as far as Chicago,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 6: they just had a big gaming. It's Indiana. We got
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 6: that game right on the show with a cover there.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 6: Chicago had to make a big comeback to get back
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 6: in that game. So Chicago played a full effort game
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 6: in that one against a pretty good Indiana team and
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 6: fell just short. Now, even though they're starting a road trip,
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 6: and usually I'm gonna look towards the team starting the
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 6: road trip usually you know what I mean, because it's
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 6: a positive spot, usually a focused spot. Usually versus Seattle.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 6: Returning home from a road trip, usually I think that's
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 6: a negative. They're gonna get back to home life whatever.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 6: Chicago is a bigger game next though, against Golden State,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 6: So I think even though it's a start of a
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 6: road trip, I think it's a sandwich spot for Chicago
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 6: coming up that huge game against Indiana and that big
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 6: game against Golden State up next, and they just beat
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 6: Seattle not that long ago.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's a good spot for Chicago here
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: so as bad.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 6: And they're having to go to the West Coast by
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 6: the way as well, So they're going from Chicago out
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 6: to the West Coast for a late night game, so
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 6: their biological clock's gonna have to make adjustments too. So
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 6: I don't think that's good. I know Seattle's in a
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 6: return home spot. I don't really want to play them here.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 6: But if I was gonna play this game, I would
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 6: play Seattle in this one. And it looks like you
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 6: will get them as about a plus one underdog here
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 6: plus one and a half sixty percent of tickets on
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 6: Chicago seventy percent of the cash of Seattle, So the
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 6: money is back in Seattle here. That is what I
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 6: would do, like I said, if I was gonna play this,
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 6: but I think there are too many negatives for both
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 6: teams in my opinion.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: The money is playing the over.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 6: At one seventy seven and a half here as well,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 6: And sometimes that is the right thing to look at
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 6: when you're dealing with two teams that are they have
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 6: nothing to play for it at this point really for
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 6: the remainder of the season, they're not going anywhere, and
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 6: two teams that are in kind.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: Of bad spots.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 6: A lot of times it shows up on the deep
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 6: betsive sided things, but I'd kind of be worried about
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 6: the offensive rhythm.
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: Too, with the time zone change and stuff like that.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 6: So anyway, I think if I was gonna play it,
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 6: I would play Seattle, but I don't really do many
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 6: totals here. That's gonna do doing baseball, but not any
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 6: other sport. Really, that's gonna do it. My plays today
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 6: are the Mets on the first five money line. If
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 6: you wanted to go full game, I wouldn't dispute that either.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 6: And we're taking the under full game seven and a
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 6: half in Brewers Padres. That game, yeah, just really really
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 6: looks like one of my underplays to me. So we're
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 6: doing that. That's gonna do it. Learn a tone on Twitter,
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 6: and learn it tone on Instagram, like, subscribe to the
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 6: channel here, give me good replies, hype it whatever, tell
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 6: everybody about it. Let's get back on the winning side
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 6: here today. Man, we've been I feel like we've been
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 6: treading water for a while now, which I don't like.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 6: We need another heater, man. And maybe it's not gonna
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 6: happen a lot of times it doesn't happen until football
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 6: starts again. And usually it's like week two in the
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 6: football seasons where I really kind of start getting going again,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 6: where you find like good situations to fade over reactions
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 6: and stuff like that.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: But whatever.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 6: Subscribe to the YouTube channel though, and you'll get my
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 6: You get notified when I do the previews for football
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 6: and whatever, which I'm gonna do soon at some point.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know exactly when. I've already did one for the.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 6: NFL, but I'll probably do another one now that we
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 6: have some more information and whatever. Don't know how many
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 6: of my opinions are really gonna change, but I already
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 6: gave out my win totals. I'm not gonna change my
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 6: opinions on those ones that I really liked. We're on audio, Apple, Spotify,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 6: Spreaker helps out listening over there as well. Covered in
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 6: you because my yuke cover channel and originals on YouTube.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: You can check that out.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 6: Patroon dot com, slash learn to toe to support me
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 6: that way, Loser Cast we'll be back tomorrow every Tuesday night,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 6: and the New York Giants g Spot podcast.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it. I appreciate it, everybody. Let's let's
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: go to and Oh today.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 6: Man, we'll at least have a very small win if
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 6: we get the the total right today, because it's the
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 6: favorite price. But I would not be that thrilled about.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 6: I'd be okay with that going one on one with
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 6: that being the winner, but I want to go to
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 6: and oh obviously that's why we got these plays.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: Peace, if the docs dots talk, can hand me the phone,
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: let somebody answer, Let somebody know.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: You do not have to.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 5: Lose this round Longe, hold.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: On, hold on, nothing nice.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 5: Not now hold on, hold on. Let me pull you
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 5: out that bad luck by time, but it don't get
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 5: the crown. Hold on, hold on, stay with me, now,
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 5: hold on, hold on, You're still here.