Latest / Upper Hand Fantasy / Take These Late Round Rookies To Win Your Draft!

Transcript

Take These Late Round Rookies To Win Your Draft! · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone's talking about the first round guys right now, but today we're not touching any of that.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: I'm talking later day two, day three guys.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_01: That's where the value is hiding.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_01: You had guys from the last two years like Cam Scatabou, Bucky Irving, Bascial Tutin, Harold Fannon.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: I was high on all these guys as prospects.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: So I came back from this draft with 12 more names that could fit the same mold.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get into it.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: I have to start this under the radar list with Antonio Williams.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: He was drafted early in the third round to a team that desperately needed a wide receiver too behind Terry McLaurin.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: Williams was primarily a slot player in college, but he does have chops to play on the outside.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: He can work vertically, unlike your typical slot receiver.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: And this is key.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: Commander's GM Adam Peters said that he can work at slot and Z, which means there's a chance he's out on the field in two wide receiver sets.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: In a league that's moving further away from three wide receiver sets, being a slot only player is a bit of a liability, just as Josh Jowns and Jaden Reed.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: Great players, but limited routes.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: If Williams is going to be on the field in two wide receiver sets and kicking inside in three wide receiver sets, it means we're going to get full route participation and he has a chance to be the second target from Jaden Daniels.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: Next up is Elijah Surratt.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: Now, getting day three draft capital is never what you want ideally, but sometimes you just bet on guys who you think can outplay it.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: And I think Elijah Surratt is definitely someone I want to bet on.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: Now, despite Surat being a perimeter wide receiver his entire college career, we said pre-draft that he needs to go to a team that sees a vision for him to be a big slot.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: And that's exactly what Ravens GM Eric DaCosta said after drafting him.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: He said that they, and I quote, really, really like him inside.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think they really, really like him in the slot, and that's music to my ears.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: They also picked up Jacoby Lane on day two.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: And in my draft kit, I described Lane as a raw player, and DaCosta agreed after the draft.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: He called him a ball of clay with a lot of upside.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: So to me, it looks like Surat will be the more likely receiver to hit the ground running and maybe even have a chance of being the second target earner behind Zay Flowers.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: Now, when you consider Surat's insane 2.71 yards per route run right near the top of this class, his 14% first down rate, number one in this class, has 15 touchdowns this past season on his way to a national championship.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's hard not to like this situation.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: Next up is Nick Singleton.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: Some might assume that Tony Pollard emerged victorious after the NFL draft, but the Titans drafted Nick Singleton in the fifth round.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: Normally, we don't want to hype up a day three running back, but there are a few things to note here.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: First off, Pollard is in his last year of his contract that was given to him by the former Titans GM and head coach.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: They can choose to cut him if they want and save more than seven million dollars against the cap this year.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: And the second point is Nick Singleton has a three-down skill set and is especially good in the receiving game.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: One thing the current GM noted too was that he was a bigger back than Pollard.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: So don't be surprised if this backfield looks completely different.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_01: And if Penn State's all-time touchdown leader ends up as their new goal line guy.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: Now let's talk about Jonah Coleman.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: Listen, I'm a Jonah Coleman guy, and day three draft capital is not ideal.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, I did move Judarian Price way over Jonah Coleman because first round rookies right blah blah blah blah, they do have a high hit rate.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so you have to do that.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: But Coleman landing with Sean Payton is underrated.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know how much of an impact he makes in year one, given J.K.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: Dobbins is the one A and RJ Harvey likely continuing his role as the one B.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: But Dobbins isn't necessarily the epitome of health, and he likely won't be on the team in 2027.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: I would imagine that Coleman would slide into the 1A role as the way bigger back, and Harvey would continue his role as the 1B, which sucks for Harvey.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: He seems pigeonholed into that role, but Coleman would have the higher upside in that scenario.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_01: He should be the goal line back.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: He can earn targets at a higher level than someone like Dobbins because of how natural and efficient he was as a receiver in college.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: So the 1A role with Coleman would likely look a lot more productive than the 1A role with Dobbins right now.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: Sean Payton already said post-draft that Coleman can play third down and that he's impressed with his blocking ability, which was one of his strengths coming out.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: Peyton has a long history of productive running backs, but patience is going to be the name of the game with Coleman.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: Next up is Skylar Bell.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: Looking at the Bills' depth chart at wide receiver right now, you have DJ Moore likely playing the X receiver role.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_01: By the way, he did it before in Joe Brady's offense.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_01: You have Khalil Shakir in the slot, not someone who really kicks outside a whole lot.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: And when he did last year, his average depth of target was only 1.3 yards.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: They want someone in that flanker role who can actually be targeted downfield.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: And both GM Brandon Bean and head coach Joe Brady said post-draft that he's that outside to inside player, opposed to Shakir, who's that inside to outside player.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_01: So Bell's major competition is likely going to be guys like Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: And if Coleman can't get it going in year three again, Bell is going to get his opportunities.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: And you look at his production over the last two years at UConn last year, 3.13 yards per route run, right up there with Mikhail Lemon, 34% targets per route run leading the class, 10.8 targets per game leading the class, 99 receiving yards per game leading the class, 8.2 yards after the catch per reception leading the class.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: So there could be something here.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: You look at his skill set, good route runner, great contested catcher, has serious speed.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's the real intrigue here with him being that downfield receiver for Josh Allen.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: I'd be taking a shot later in the second round of my dynasty rookie drafts if I were you.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's talk Catron Allen.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: Bill Kronsky Merritt was looking like a winner coming out of the draft, and he still might be, but I do think that Katron Allen is gonna give him some serious run for his money.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_01: As of right now, the backfield is basically Bill as the early down guy, and then a bunch of passing down backs like Rashad White, Jerry McNichols.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: They also have Jerome Ford, but Allen profiles as that thunder to Bill's lightning.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: And Bill himself was a seventh round pick last year.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: So the commanders won't have any real reason outside of Merritt to have the better back on the field.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: Allen's a bigger back, and I would not be surprised if he became the one A in this backfield at some point.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I would definitely not be surprised if he earned the goal line role because of his 39 career rushing touchdowns, his 4,600 rushing yards at Penn State.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking 98th and 99th percentiles, respectively, among college running backs since 2014.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, this is probably gonna be an above-average offense at the very least with Jaden Daniels at QB.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously, offensive coordinator is a big mystery.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: So I'll be taking my shots on Allen in rookie drafts as well.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: Next up is Brennan Thompson.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: Can I just play this clip real quick?
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: In this whole formula, if you can find a way to find uh to get Brennan Thompson, I will take my shirt off in here.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: On the record, on the record.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: It seems to me like McDaniel won in Thompson here.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know about you, but that's what it seemed like to me.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: Thompson's not the perfect prospect, right?
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: He's a smaller receiver, 5'9, 164 pounds.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: But you look at how easily he separates vertically, how he can beat guys over the top, how he stretches the defense, and then you look at who he landed with Mike McDaniel and Justin Herbert.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: It's really hard not to get excited about this pairing.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: Now, it's also tough to see where he fits as of right now, right?
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: He probably won't play over Quentin Johnson, probably not over Trey Harris.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe kind of this rotational wide receiver four to start.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: Death charts change so fast in the NFL.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't want to overvalue that here, but the scheme and QB fit just seems like a good one to me.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's talk new Chiefs wide receiver, Cyrus Allen.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: First of all, he's underrated as a prospect.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Second, he lands on a Chiefs team that lacks perimeter presence.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: So this is a perfect landing spot for him.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: He was mostly a slot player in college, but I think he can instantly compete for that flanker role.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think he has legit route running and separation ability.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_01: I saw it firsthand at the senior bowl.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm very interested to see how fast he can get acclimated to the system and get on the field with Patrick Mahomes.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: So make sure to keep your eye on him during training camp.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the last wide receiver on this list before I get to some tight ends is Kevin Coleman.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: He's probably going later in rookie draft.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: So at least we have someone to target later on in this depleted rookie draft.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: Don't get me started.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: But I think he's a better player than Miami's first pick off the board, Caleb Douglas.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: And we know the other wide receiver they took, Chris Bell, is gonna miss some time, still recovering from his late season ACL tier.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: So Coleman basically has to beat guys like Malik Washington, for example, for that slot role.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: And I think it's very possible.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: Who else is his target competition at that point?
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_01: There's literally no one on the Dolphins roster who has shown target earning ability in the pros.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: Coleman even earned a higher target rate in college than Chris Bell, but Coleman has an underrated profile overall.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: 2.14 yards per route run.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: That's pretty good.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: 10% first down rate.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: He's good after the catch, he's really good hands.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: I saw him at the senior ball firsthand.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: He was separating with ease.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: So someone to bet on late in your rookie drafts.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's get into the tight end segment.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: There are three tight ends who are a bit under the radar who we need to talk about.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: First off is Eli Rayrdon.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: He was drafted by the Patriots in the third round.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: He's someone who can actually be an every down player as a tight end.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: Something we haven't been able to talk about too much given this draft class, right?
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_01: He's a true Y tight end.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: He can play in line.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_01: He was fourth in this class last year in yards per route run, made some guys miss with a 19% miss tackle rate, 9% first down rate, could contested rate.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: Then you look at Hunter Henry's situation, right?
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_01: The Patriots can actually save more than$9 million by cutting Henry this offseason if they wanted to.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: Either way, this is the last year of his deal, and Raritan can step right in as Drake May's security blanket.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm targeting him in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: Next up is Justin Jolly.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: He didn't get the draft capital that Raridon got, but he's also way more of that move tight end, right?
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_01: More of a receiver type, more of an F-type player.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: And you pair him with Sean Payton, you start to think about the possibilities here, right?
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: They signed Evan Ingram a couple of years ago.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: I would have imagined that they're a bit disappointed with the production that he's given them.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think Jolly can help reignite that excitement because he's a pretty good receiver.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: Ingram's going to be on the roster no matter what this season, given his cap number, but Jolly can easily develop to play that receiving tight end role in 2027.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe even take some snaps away from Ingram at some point this year.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_01: Jolly's had some serious production in college.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: 15 touchdowns in his career, that's 97th percentile among tight ends over the last 12 years, 166 receptions, almost 2,000 yards, uh, both at the 99th percentile among college tight ends.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: He might be someone you want to target later in your second round of your rookie drafts.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_01: And finally, my guy, Tanner Koziel.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_01: I'm loving this landing spot with the Jaguars.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_01: Anytime you can be paired with an offensive mind like Liam Cohen, it's just more of a reason to bet on, guys.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: And if you don't know, Koziel is simply the most productive tight end in this class, the most productive tight end in my entire database that goes back to 2014.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_01: 100th percentile career receptions, 99.9th percentile career receiving yards, 99.7th percentile touchdowns, a hundredth percentile contested catches, 99 percentile targets per game, most receiving yards per game in this class.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: And last year at Houston, a power force school, 2.25 yards per route run, led the class with 29 targets per route run, 13 first down rate, which led the class.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: Do I need to go on?
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: Brenton Strange, obviously still in his way, but strange is in the last year of his deal.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: He came from the old regime.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_01: So I'd imagine that Kozil is gonna get his opportunities at some point.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe not this year, but there's a big ceiling here once he does.