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Jan 02 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the second day of January 2025, the first trading day of the year. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at agmarket.net. We'll hear from Cheyenne Dierich.
• 0:20
  She's a mental health specialist here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the U of I. And we'll discuss the weather too, particularly what's happening in Argentina, Paraguay, and maybe parts of southern Brazil as it's related to some dry and hot conditions that are forthcoming. We'll do that with Mike Tenura from t storm weather here on this Thursday edition of the closing market report. Our program was established in January of 1985, 40 years ago, more than 10,000 episodes and 30,000 interviews about the markets, the weather, and agricultural trade across the planet.
• 0:59
  announcer: Todd Gleason services are made available to WIL by University of Illinois Extension.
• 1:04
  Todd Gleason: Let's step into the way back machine for just a moment before we get to today's trade in Chicago, we'll go to January of 1985 when this program first started. March corn opened the year in 1985 at $2.69 a quarter cents a bushel. January soybeans at 5.70a half, And the March soft red winter wheat in 1985 was at $3.46 3 quarters of a cent on the 1st trading day in its opening price. Last January, by the way, a year ago, March corn futures traded at $5.12. January beans at 12.43 and a half, and the March soft red winter wheat started the year at $6.75 a quarter cents.
• 1:49
  Now let's turn our attention to today's trade. March corn at $4.59 and a half, a penny higher for the day. The May at 4.67 at a quarter a bushel, up 1 and a half cents, and December corn at 4.46 and a half. The new crop, 2 and 3 quarters of a cent higher. January beans at $9.99 and a half cents.
• 2:08
  Settlement price up a penny and a quarter. It's high at $10.4, by the way, for the dang. The March at 10.12 up a penny and a half, and November soybeans at $10.28. New crop finished 2 and 3 quarters of a cent higher. Bean meal at $310.90 and the bean oil at 39.72, 6¢ lower on the day.
• 2:29
  Those both in the January contracts. March wheat futures at 5.45 and 3 quarters, down 5 3 quarters. The May at 5.57 and a half, a nickel lower, and the hard red winter wheat, March at 5.51 and 3 quarters, down 7 and a half cents. Live cattle futures in Chicago at $193.60 per £100, up $2. The feeders at $26.20, $3.22 a half higher, and lean hogs $81.15 per £100, down 15¢.
• 3:00
  Crude oil for the day $73.13 a barrel, a dollar 41 higher. Diesel fuel or heating oil up 3 7 tenths of a cent at $2.35 a half cents a gallon, and the wholesale price of gasoline at $2.92 10ths of a cent, 4 3 tenths of a cent higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average about 246 points higher at 4,200,628, and the S and P 500 at 5,902 and 3 quarters of a point, down 33 and a half points. Matt Bennett joins us on this 1st trading day of the 2025 year to talk about the commodity markets. Hi, Matt.
• 3:37
  Happy New Year to you.
• 3:38
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. Happy New Year to you, bud.
• 3:40
  Todd Gleason: Let's start with why producers are seeing higher prices for soybeans over the last few days of 2024 and, this first trading day of 2025.
• 3:53
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, there's no doubt that this dryness in Argentina and southern Brazil has been talked about. There's been some regional rainfall, though. So, you know, over the last several days, actually, it seems like some areas, particularly like Cordoba in Argentina, has been blessed, with a fair amount of rain. In that particular area, you're talking 35, 40% of overall production.
• 4:14
  So, anything to sound the alarm over. But as far as right now, it's definitely been something that's been a stabilizing factor for us. It certainly spilled over, you know, from a soybean meal rally, which is typically the way that we see that start. Came over into soybeans, then, of course, we've seen, corn be able to participate to an extent. But, one thing I'll say here on Thursday, the 1st trading year, the, day of the year, you know, we settled off the highs a little ways, you know, but we still settled higher.
• 4:44
  Todd Gleason: So a couple of other things I wanted to talk about, because there were an awful lot, I think, of deliveries have been against the soybean contracts, as they expire for that January. How does that play out generally in the marketplace, and what does it mean?
• 5:00
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. Whenever you get big deliveries, clearly, you've got a fair amount of people that have, you know, held on to positions gonna, you know, take delivery of of of beans. In my opinion, you've got a fair amount of these processors, especially your crushers. With crush margins staying fairly strong, they're choosing to own these beans. And, you know, bottom line moving forward is, I think front, you know, front loaded type demand is is certainly something we have to be careful about.
• 5:31
  I mean, when you get farther out here, not only are you seeing crush kinda back off somewhat. It's still strong. Don't get me wrong. It's just not near as strong as what it was, for instance, in the fall months. The other thing that concerns me somewhat is you get out here, of course, is gonna be the export business, which is certainly going to back off, and I would say in significant fashion over the next few weeks.
• 5:54
  So, you know, I do think right now there's a fair amount of need for ownership of soybeans. I just don't know that that's gonna hang around forever.
• 6:02
  Todd Gleason: As we were ending the year, going into the holiday week, so before Christmas, it appeared that the nearby charts, on the daily, maybe even the weekly, looked for soybeans relatively friendly. But once you looked at the March contract, that did not. Is that still the case today?
• 6:25
  Matt Bennett: Well, March went up here today and tested the 100 day moving average up there at about 10/19. You know? And so March beans actually close at 10:12. You know? But at the same time, we went up there fairly close.
• 6:39
  10, 15, 3 quarters, I think, is where we where we kinda topped out at. We are currently, though, above the 50, the 20, and the 10 day moving averages as far as March beans are concerned. And so, you know, we've made some progress. So you only have to go back to, you know, there in, December, let's say, on 19th. You know, you kinda bottomed out there about 947, you know, and then you turn around here, and all of a sudden, we're trading, you know, 70¢ higher almost.
• 7:08
  So, I mean, it's really been quite a rally off the lows. You've got a really nice up trend that, you know, we've established here, but I think, the overwhelming or overarching thing to really pay attention to, you know, is what happens if we don't see dryness persist in in South America and that, again, Southern Brazil, Argentina, area. If it doesn't persist, then one would have to be certainly, somewhat afraid, especially with a huge USDA report coming up next Friday. One would have to be a little concerned, you know, that, maybe you're missing a little bit of a selling opportunity if you don't get a bullish report there and or, weather doesn't stay quite as inclement as what it's looked here lately.
• 7:50
  Todd Gleason: One last thing out of South America. In Argentina, they had a difficult time with, an insect issue in corn last year. That meant that plantings for this year probably were lower on that acreage. Soybeans higher. Is corn reacting to the drier, conditions, warmer conditions, even hot conditions in South America too?
• 8:09
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, I I certainly think that it it plays in. There's no doubt, though, that whenever you look at some of the forecast for production right now, actually, versus what we've seen over the last month or so, soybeans appear to be taken a little bit more of a hit on production as far as those forecasts are concerned, but, no doubt about it. You don't have quite as much corn planted here, you know, this year. And so, whenever it comes to RGT, I mean, they're a pretty darn big exporter of, world corn, and there's no question that, you know, if you would scale back somewhat as far as total production goes, you know, it certainly could be supportive.
• 8:47
  We have to remember, though, you know, as far as world production is concerned, the forecast is still that we're gonna have a fair amount of corn. Now the big difference that you've got when you're talking world balance sheets is that the world corn balance sheet is set to tighten up according to the USDA, whereas soybeans is going to balloon, you know, if you see normal production out of South America. So, certainly wanna keep a close eye on those stocks and stocks use ratios because that's the thing that the originators are looking towards as far as, what the you know, what kind of price action they might be looking at moving forward.
• 9:20
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much. We look forward to talking with you during commodity week today.
• 9:23
  Matt Bennett: Sounds good, buddy.
• 9:24
  Todd Gleason: Matt Bennett is with agmarket.net and will join us for our commodity week recording this afternoon along with Naomi Blum of Total Farm Marketing and Chuck Shelby of Risk Management Commodities. Commodity week is our weekly look at what's happening in the world of agricultural trade. You can hear it online again at willag.org today, tomorrow, on our home radio station in its entirety at this hour, and on many of these radio stations over the weekend
• 9:55
  Matt Bennett: as well.
• 9:56
  Todd Gleason: In today's agricultural news, the European Parliament yesterday voted to delay implementation of a deforestation regulation for a full year, providing a reprieve to some US producers and ranchers, cattlemen particularly, and soybean farmers. The rule would have required imports of beef and other goods like soybeans to include documentation showing they did not come from areas impacted by deforestation. In the case of beef, that includes geolocation of data where the cattle were raised. The new regulation had been scheduled to take effect on December 30th. Aaron Borer, vice president of economic analysis with US Meat Export Federation, says deforestation is not a concern for US beef, yet American producers were faced with burdensome and unnecessary paperwork even though the EU systems are still not ready for implementation.
• 10:50
  The same would have been said and goes for soybean farmers who had been contacted in our area by ATM and others last year for the same purposes of documentation. Now the 1 year delay offers limited time to not only iron out systems for the implementation, but to also push for key changes to the rule, including, quote, a no risk designation for trading partners where forests are not cleared for production. Let's move from 2024 to 2025 now where a fresh chance to do what farm leaders had hoped for the last year could be developing. That's a new farm bill, but how soon that gets done in the new year is a key question. How quickly can agriculture recover from the legislative setback given a new congress must be seated and cabinet nominees confirmed.
• 11:39
  American Farm Bureau's director of government affairs, Joe Gilson, weighs in.
• 11:44
  announcer: I think this next farm bill, if we can focus on making sure it helps the family farmer, then we're gonna get a farm bill done pretty early.
• 11:52
  Todd Gleason: But congress, Gelson says, with its last minute stopgap funding bill extended the outdated 2018 farm bill through the end of September, taking pressure off lawmakers to rush a new farm law this year. Gilson acknowledges the challenges ahead.
• 12:08
  announcer: There's a a million hang ups in a in a farm bill. It's it's a massive bill, you know, 12 different titles. So who knows what what could hang up congress? There's a litany of issues.
• 12:20
  Todd Gleason: But the pressure farmers exerted to win $10,000,000,000 in farm aid could be on display again for a farm bill. Now Gilson says incoming senate ag chair John Boozman could short circuit the legislative process given earlier farm bill hearings.
• 12:37
  announcer: My guess is that he he knows the state of the farm economy, pays really close attention on this, and he might just have a a markup instead of the the full, committee hearing.
• 12:49
  Todd Gleason: Gilson says Boozman and house chair Glenn Thompson could still hold a hearing. Either way, he says the farm bureau wants to hit the ground running and avoid repeating senate ag's out of time proposal last year. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. You know, it's really stressful to market a crop trying to figure out what the best price for that day, for that year, for that crop might be, and for the next crop too. And then maybe thinking about that more often than you should after the fact.
• 13:34
  Plus, all the things that go along with keeping that crop safe in the bin, as well as making sure that the crop that goes in the ground is ready. It's just a hard job, and, well, there are a lot of mental health issues related to that. The University of Illinois is concerned along with extension across the whole of the nation for the well-being of farmers. And I spoke with Cheyenne Dirichs about those issues. I wanted first to know just exactly what it is she does at the U of I.
• 14:06
  Cheyanne Dierickx: I work directly with doctor Josie Rudolphi, who is a professor in the department of ag and bioengineering, and she does a lot of research with, farmer mental health. Farmers have a higher prevalence of anxiety, depression, suicide, and substance use, So we wanna make sure that they have resources to be able to deal with those.
• 14:29
  Todd Gleason: Why is it that farmers have such hang high anxiety? Have do we have research that tells us anything about this issue?
• 14:38
  Cheyanne Dierickx: So there's research that shows that it can be correlated with the various stressors that, farmers face. There's a lot of unique stressors in the agricultural industry that other occupations don't deal with. So, like, time pressures, there's volatile market prices, like commodity prices, unpredictable weather events, family dynamics that you don't have to deal with in other workplaces, and just it's a it's an aging population too. So, there's a lot of, aging concerns.
• 15:10
  Todd Gleason: So these are all issues that you deal with on a regular basis. How important is it to take care of your mental health? What kinds of things help you to be more stress free, I suppose? And how do people recognize when somebody else has an issue?
• 15:26
  Cheyanne Dierickx: So the easy thing to do is to take a break, but you can't do that in agriculture. There's no there's no off time, really. The way to deal with it, for agricultural populations is a lot different than for other types of occupations. I think just trying to make time for themselves when they can during busy seasons, just like at least just stopping and taking a breath and just grounding yourself, is a good way to check-in with how you're feeling. And then just, like, actually being honest and open with people, when having conversations and stay instead of just saying, like, I'm I'm fine when you're not, especially with people you're close to.
• 16:12
  Some signs to look out for, especially in agriculture are the decline in, the farmstead, maybe a decreased care for pets or different livestock, stress in children, just irritability, difficulty sleeping, just and there can also be an increase in farm accidents.
• 16:38
  Todd Gleason: Thank you very much. I appreciate it, Cheyenne.
• 16:41
  Cheyanne Dierickx: Yeah. Thank you.
• 16:42
  Todd Gleason: Cheyenne Dirichs is with the College of Agricultural Consumer and Environmental Sciences here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. You're listening to the closing market report, of course, from Illinois Public Medium. It is public radio for the farming world. The program was established in January of 1985. We're celebrating 40 years, 10,000 episodes, and more than 30,000 interviews.
• 17:07
  Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County farmer, Tim Gleason. Up next, we'll take up the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Let's check out, what's been happening in the growing regions across the planet. Mike Tenure is here. He's the president and CEO at T Storm Weather.
• 17:37
  That's tstorm.net. Happy New Year to you, Mike. Thanks for being with us on this first trading day of the year.
• 17:44
  Mike Tannura: Yeah. Happy New Year to you, Todd. Well, let's have a great 2025 coming up.
• 17:48
  Todd Gleason: I'm looking forward to it, and so are farmers across the planet. Let's hear about what's happening in South America. I know as we closed out the year, we were discussing some issues that might might be developing in South America, particularly in Argentina. What does it look like today?
• 18:07
  Mike Tannura: Well, the weather forecast from Argentina through southern Brazil and Paraguay is about as poor as you can get at this time of the year, and that's primarily because there's very little rain on the way. It's going to be quite dry for them over the next 2 weeks with very few chances for rain out there, so it's going to be much drier than normal, and this is a key period of time for 1st corn and soybeans. So that is kind of the first problem that we have. The second problem that we have is that heat is going to be affecting most, but not all of these areas. The northwest 2 thirds of Argentina's corn and soybean belt, as well as most of Paraguay's, is going to be considerably warmer than normal going forward with highs in the 90s and 100.
• 18:50
  The only area that will miss out on the heat is in southern Brazil, and the reason that's important is because that's where a big concentration of crops exists. So even though it will be warmer than normal across a big chunk of the region, not all of it with some of these areas being protected by easterly winds that come on from the Atlantic Ocean and then below far inland and that'll help to keep Southern Brazil, you know, more moderate without any significant heat. But the reason this is a very tricky situation, Tonda, is because prior to this, it was pretty much ideal. If you look at Southern Brazil and their key states, they were the coolest in December in more than 45 years of record, and in Argentina they were the coolest since 1984, so going back 40 years. So things were looking pretty good not too long ago.
• 19:36
  We also had some pretty good rains in both of these areas over the course of last month, but as you know, what happened in the past, doesn't always have to continue in the future, and we're certainly moving into a pattern change, But the big question is what's happening after mid January? If we suddenly move back into a nice pattern where we get some cool and wet weather, then the first two weeks of poor weather in January won't matter all that much. But if it stays dry and it stays warm over the second half of January, then what happened in December won't matter that much, and we'll suddenly be really focused in on this. So we're at a pivotal point here, and we just need a little more time to figure it all out.
• 20:14
  Todd Gleason: So the bottom line is that they had cool and enough moisture to sustain them for a while in the hot and dry time frame, and we have to look into the later part of January to understand eventually what's going to happen to that crop. Is that kind of what you're telling me?
• 20:29
  Mike Tannura: Yes. Especially for southern Brazil and Paraguay because they plant their crops earlier than in Argentina. Argentina is still finishing planting, so it's kinda like early June in Argentina. And so even if it were dry later in January, you still could get out of the situation with some nice rains in February primarily because as you noted, soil moisture is not problematic as of today, so this is going to be initially a southern Brazil and Paraguay problem and then we'd have to shift to more into Argentina later in January February if it were to stay like this. One thing we didn't talk about is what's happening further north and there they've had pretty great rains in Goyas, Matagrosso, and Minas Tiras, and then in the 4 state region further north from there and that's about half of corn and soybeans, in Brazil.
• 21:15
  So, you know, that's the other tricky thing about it. They're going to see pretty fantastic weather, going forward with a lot of rains over the next 2 weeks, but similarly, Tom, you get a lot of rain in Northern Brazil this time of the year. It's a good thing, but only to a point. You can't get too much rain. And if that pattern were also to continue over the second half of the month, then you'd have to start thinking about too much rain there.
• 21:36
  So there's a lot of things going on in South America today, and it's going to be important to follow that.
• 21:42
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. And just quickly, here in the United States, what are your expectations as we move into the month of January?
• 21:47
  Mike Tannura: Well, it's gonna turn a lot colder. I mean, much colder over the next couple of weeks, and there's gonna be a major snowstorm in the central US Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. That'll be near Illinois Sunday and Monday, and that certainly needs to be watched. There are some indications that more than 12 inches of snow could fall in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, but the exact location of that is difficult to determine. As of today, it looks like it's going to focus on central or southern Illinois, though we know that models tend to shift northward as you move nearer the event, which would put it further into central or northern Illinois, but that's all has to be watched over the next 2 days.
• 22:25
  And the primary impact from it from agriculture would basically be to protect wheat because temperatures will be nearing 0 and colder at times to the north of I 70 next week, and we need that snow to protect the crop. And it looks like we are going to get it.
• 22:39
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it.
• 22:41
  Mike Tannura: Yeah. Happy New Year again, Ted.
• 22:42
  Todd Gleason: Happy New Year to you as well, Mike. That's Mike Tonore. He's with T Storm Weather. Find them online at tstorm.net. You've been listening to the closing market report on the 2nd day of January.
• 22:54
  It comes to you from Illinois Public Media and was established 40 years ago in 1985. 10,000 episodes, 30,000 interviews. It is public radio for the farming world. I'm Todd Gleason.