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Sep 10 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260911 The September 8, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive overview of commodity trade, agricultural policy, and regional weather. Following the settlement numbers, Naomi Blohm of TotalFarmMarketing.com analyzes quiet post-holiday trade action in corn and soybeans, strong overnight gains in wheat driven by Black Sea developments, and market positioning ahead of the USDA's upcoming WASDE report. The program then examines federal agricultural policy, detailing producer dissatisfaction over the Trump administration's 90-day tariff suspension on South American beef imports, featuring commentary from Nebraska cattle rancher John O'Dea on producer margins, and reviewing executive orders targeting meatpacker concentration. University of Minnesota agricultural economist Ed Usset follows with historical context on August grain rallies, comparing current market movements to previous years—such as 2003, 2011, and 2022—while cautioning against expectations of runaway harvest rallies. Finally, meteorologist Don Day of DayWeather outlines the regional forecast, highlighting modest temperature relief and scattered shower activity extending into the Corn Belt and southern Plains fueled by subtropical moisture from the Pacific. 01:59 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com 08:25 Beef Imports, Meatpackers, Ranchers, and the Oval Office 11:13 Commodity Market Discussion with Ed Usset 20:36 Ag Weather with Don Day, DayWeather.com --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the eighth day of September 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm at TotalFarmMarketing.com. We will hear from Ed Usset, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota. Along the way, we will update you on the administration’s policies related to beef and beef imports, and how some producers and ranchers are impacted by that and their feelings as they look towards Washington, D.C. Then we will turn our attention to the weather forecast. Don Day is here. He is with DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. We will do that all on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on-demand at willag.org. Announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: December corn for the day settled at $5.33 and a half, down three and a quarter cents. March at $5.49, three and a quarter lower. The May contract also down three and a quarter, settled at $5.56 and a half. November new crop soybeans, $13.16 and a quarter, up six and a half cents. January $13.32, seven higher. The March up eight and a quarter cents at $13.38 and a half. For the soybeans, bean meal down $4.90 at $343.30. The bean oil at $70.22, a dollar 33 higher. Wheat futures, soft red in December at $7.47, a gain of 13 cents. The hard red at $8.19 in December, 16 and three-quarter cents higher. Live cattle futures in Chicago, $4.07 and a half cents higher. Feeders up $5.30. Lean hogs a dollar 95 cents higher. Crude oil at $92.92 a barrel, up a dollar 45 cents. 01:59 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing now joins us to take a look at what has happened after the three-day Labor Day weekend. Thanks for being with us. I hope you had a great weekend. Naomi Blohm: Thank you for having me. It was a nice work-at-home weekend. I got a lot of stuff done. Todd Gleason: Me too. I love working in the yard sometimes, and the weather was great over the weekend. Given it was a three-day weekend, not much changed in Chicago. Tell me about the trade for today. Naomi Blohm: We had quiet, two-sided trade action for corn and soybeans. Wheat was up stronger overnight and finished the day with double-digit gains due to ongoing concerns about the Black Sea region. Take note that corn futures today closed below both the 5- and 10-day moving averages. They need fresh bullish news soon, or we might see a simple pullback on corn prices similar to what wheat did a couple of weeks ago. Beans continue to teeter-totter on a sideways shuffle, waiting for fresh news. We probably will not get much fresh news until Friday’s WASDE report. Todd Gleason: What are the expectations there? Naomi Blohm: We are seeing pre-report estimates of lower ending stocks and lower yield numbers. One pre-report estimate for corn yield is coming in near the 176.5 area. For soybean yield, it is close to the last USDA number, potentially a little smaller. The question is whether that information is already priced into the market. Ever since the Pro Farmer crop tour, grain prices have surged higher expecting lower production. Will the USDA echo what we have been trading, or will they provide anything exceptionally bullish? Will they make a modest reduction without providing new bullish information? People are expecting six-dollar corn. It could happen, but it will require lower yield numbers from the USDA. Yield would have to come in near 175 for corn to take the next leg higher in the short term; otherwise, we might see a pullback. December corn finished at $5.33 and a half, down three and a quarter. If the market does a simple 50% correction from the three-week rally, that takes December corn 30 cents lower near the five-dollar area. There is price value to protect, so be ready for any scenario to unfold as the week goes on. Todd Gleason: Have you heard any early yields from producers who have been in the fields? Naomi Blohm: Near St. Joe, Missouri, a producer reported yields were average based on a five-year average. Certain parts of his field were below expectations. A farmer in northwest Iowa doing silage reported it coming in at 225. Last year it was running near 250 when doing the appraisal for yield adjustment. It is not as good as last year, but not terrible. That is part of the yield reduction we are expecting. The question remains whether it is already priced into the market. Todd Gleason: Not as good as last year, when it was the best year we have ever had, is an interesting caveat. We will see how things turn out as more producers get into the field through September. This will be the USDA’s first crop production report that includes on-the-ground numbers, meaning they were in the fields taking counts as of September 1st. That should give us a better idea, particularly considering how far along this crop might be. What else are you watching in the marketplace, whether in livestock, outside markets, or returning to the Black Sea area? Naomi Blohm: Two things to keep an eye on. Cattle prices for live cattle and feeder cattle had been in a cautious two-week sideways trading pattern. Today, they broke through short-term resistance, and we saw technical buying with live and feeder cattle gaining ground. We are waiting for confirmation of additional news regarding where cash will trade this week, but box beef values were stronger, which was supportive. In the crude oil complex, continued escalation in the Middle East is keeping prices higher. Nearby October crude oil is trading near $92.50, up about a dollar. Keep an eye on the Middle East war, crude oil prices, and upcoming economic news with the Consumer Price Index. We will be monitoring inflation numbers. Todd Gleason: Thanks much, we appreciate it. Naomi Blohm: Thank you. Todd Gleason: That is Naomi Blohm; she is with TotalFarmMarketing.com. This Thursday, the Illinois Soybean Association will put on a field day. The important part for us on campus is that two agricultural professors from crop sciences will be there to discuss soybeans and corn. John Jones will talk about fertility, and Nick Seiter will cover entomology. You can join them online or in the field for the day-long event. Visit the Illinois Soybean Association to check out their field day. If you cannot find it, visit our website and scroll to the calendar. There is a link inside that field crop day listing. I will be there and will report back from the event on Thursday. 08:25 Beef Imports, Meatpackers, Ranchers, and the Oval Office Todd Gleason: One quick ag news item for the day. Last Friday, President Trump, surrounded by beef producers in the Oval Office, spoke about the already announced 90-day suspension of tariffs on some 300,000 metric tons of imported beef from countries including Brazil and Argentina. He stated that the beef producers all wanted the suspension and lower prices. This is the second fall in a row the president has managed to make beef producers unhappy by further opening the U.S. market to foreign beef in hopes of lowering consumer prices. John O’Dea: You cannot drive consumer prices down while inspiring producers to stay in business. It just does not work that way. Todd Gleason: That is John O’Dea from a Facebook post he made this morning. He is a beef producer in southwestern Nebraska and has about 2,000 head of cattle on his property right now. He is vocal on Facebook and has strong thoughts about the administration’s plans to grow the cattle industry in the United States. He gave me permission to share his thoughts. John O’Dea: A good friend of mine sent me a simple yet profound message. He asked, what kind of person decides to enter into a business or expand a business in hopes that they can drive their income down? That is essentially what the government is saying: you are going to get into the cow business so you can make less money. We want to expand your business so you can make less money. Todd Gleason: The administration says the imported beef is to be sold at a 25% discount compared to market prices. There are no details on how that is supposed to happen. However, this comes after another Oval Office meeting that took place with one of the co-owners of JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker. A subsidiary of that company, Pilgrim’s Pride, was reportedly the largest donor to President Trump’s second inauguration. The ranchers were in the Oval Office to watch the president sign a series of executive orders aimed at placating their concerns over the beef imports. Those orders, among other things, aim to reduce the market dominance of the four largest meat processors—JBS as an example—by allowing farmers and ranchers to process, package, and sell their meat directly to consumers across state lines. 11:13 Commodity Market Discussion with Ed Usset Todd Gleason: Ed Usset, agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota and with Extension, now joins us. Thank you for taking some time with us. I hope you had a great Labor Day weekend. Ed Usset: I did, and thank you for having me back. Todd Gleason: I wonder, after this three-day weekend, whether things have changed. I doubt it. Let’s start with the crop other than spring wheat, to the north probably of you for the most part. Have things really changed in wheat at this point? Ed Usset: The spring wheat crop is well into harvest now. It is in the wrap-up phase, and it will be a decent crop in Minnesota. North Dakota had some challenges. Here is my thought on wheat, though. I am going back four years ago when the Russia-Ukraine war first broke out and the wheat market really took off. I recall the market soaring; spring wheat prices and soft wheat prices were all moving high. I had a discussion with one of the biggest exporters of wheat, a big grain co-op based in the U.S., and he was amazed at the rally. He said the funny thing was, they had not sold any more wheat. They had problems in Russia and Ukraine and were not moving wheat. The idea was that countries buying wheat from them would have to go somewhere else, like the U.S. or Canada. He noted they did not have any extraordinary or new export sales to talk about. I feel like the same thing is happening now. We are getting a run-up with a lot of anticipation of new business coming our way. Yet, I look at the WASDE report, and I wonder if they will even change wheat exports. We will look. That is my thought on wheat. Todd Gleason: We will find out Friday. To follow up, it appears to me—and I saw the data on this just this morning—that U.S. wheat from exportable places, out of the Gulf in particular, is still higher priced than almost everywhere else across the planet. Ed Usset: If we want to sustain the higher price, we have to start selling something. That is my thought on wheat. Todd Gleason: If you want to sustain the higher price, you have to start selling somewhere. I want to talk about this rally we have had in both soybeans and corn. Heading into harvest season, what are your thoughts? Ed Usset: My first thought is a confessional to you. I believe the last time we talked was the first week in August. I had just completed three forays into different parts of Minnesota the week prior, and we had a beautiful crop. My bold prediction was that we would revisit the June lows come harvest, which was another 20 to 30 cents lower in corn and 40 to 50 cents lower in soybeans. A man is rarely that wrong. We had an incredible August. I did a little analysis for my Farm Futures column. From the start of August to the end of August, December corn futures were up almost 14%. That was the biggest August rise I can find in the last 37 years. I found three similar years: 2003, 2011, and 2022. I looked at the December contract through the end of November into harvest. In 2003, it went a nickel higher, basically unchanged. In 2011, the market set back a dollar 30 a bushel, although we started over seven dollars. Four years ago, the December 2022 contract had a 10% rise in August and finished four cents higher by the end of November. It is a small sample size, but I am leaning towards settling in as we work into harvest. If you are thinking seven- or eight-dollar corn, take a deep breath. I do not know if that will happen. I did the same analysis for November soybeans. The November contract only rose 8% in August, but that was the fifth-best year in the last 37 years. I looked at 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2013. In three of those years—2000, 2004, and 2013—after a big August run-up, the market settled back by the end of October anywhere from 50 cents to a dollar 10. The one exception was 2003, which saw a big August increase, and by the end of October, we were up another two dollars. By my calculation, looking at U.S. yield versus trend, 2003 was the fifth-worst year for U.S. soybean yields in the last 75 years. Some might say 2003 was not a drought year, but we usually measure droughts by the corn market. Corn got through the critical development stages fine that year, but it hurt soybeans because it quit raining in August. I do not think we are in a 2003 scenario; I do not believe yields will fall off that badly. Take a deep breath and enjoy this rally. Do not hold out for a lot higher in the next couple of months. Todd Gleason: I have been of the mind that part of this rally has been the weather, but the bulk of the rally has been the energy sector and the wars taking place in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Russia. Ed Usset: I think so. Todd Gleason: That puts us at 2022. Plus you have the biofuels expansion, RFS, particularly for soybean oil, and I am wondering how you put those into context. Ed Usset: It is not analogous to those years I just talked about. That is always the challenge; every year is a little bit different and has its own story. That is why grain marketing is not easy. Todd Gleason: I was looking for an answer, but let’s go with grain markets are not easy. Anything else before I let you go? Ed Usset: No, I am looking at the Minnesota crops. A month ago, I thought we had a shot at setting records in corn and soybean yields again as we did last year. I have pared back those thoughts quite a bit. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Ed. Ed Usset: Thank you, Todd. Todd Gleason: You are so welcome. That is Ed Usset. He is an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota and with Extension. You are listening to the Closing Market Report on this Tuesday afternoon. It comes to you from Illinois Public Media, online and on-demand at willag.org. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. 20:36 Ag Weather with Don Day, DayWeather.com Todd Gleason: Let’s take a look at the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. We will stay in the United States today. Don Day is here with DayWeather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Finally, some relief from the heat, at least in my part of the world. What can you tell me about the growing regions in the United States? Start in the Southwest, please. Don Day: The Southwest is going to start seeing some shower and thunderstorm activity spreading eastward, along with very modest heat relief. We still have high pressure in the central United States, so there is nothing strong coming out of the northwestern United States to deliver a big drop in temperature. However, the high-pressure pattern in the southern U.S. and low pressure in the Pacific Northwest are helping bring subtropical moisture north and eastward. That will drape slightly cooler temperatures and showers and thunderstorms over parts of the central and southern areas over the next few days. Todd Gleason: In the Corn Belt, will that rainfall come our way as well as the cooler temperatures? Don Day: Yes. Over the next week, I see some cooler temperatures; not dramatically cooler, but enough to take the edge off. Over the next seven days, shower and thunderstorm activity will occur, especially in the western and central Corn Belt. Even parts of the eastern Corn Belt will start to see showers and thunderstorms over areas that have not had them in a while, such as Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri. Todd Gleason: Relief for them. How badly is that rainfall needed? Don Day: There has been quite a stretch without any significant precipitation in those areas I mentioned. The precipitation in July and August favored the northern I–80 corridor areas. The areas further to the south really could use it. Todd Gleason: Anything else of interest you have been watching? Don Day: We continue to see the Pacific Ocean churn out one hurricane and tropical storm after another. A lot of folks might think that is out of sight, out of mind, or too far away. It really isn’t. We are seeing some of that subtropical moisture getting into the U.S. in the next week or so, and I think there is more to come as we go into the rest of the month and into October. Todd Gleason: Thanks much, Don. Don Day: Thank you. Todd Gleason: Don Day is with DayWeather. He is in Cheyenne, Wyoming, and helped us wrap up this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media, online and on-demand at willag.org. I am Extension’s Todd Gleason.