Latest / Simply Bitcoin / The REAL Reason Bitcoin Just Silently Rallied to $74k (Not what you think) | EP 1461

Transcript

The REAL Reason Bitcoin Just Silently Rallied to $74k (Not what you think) | EP 1461 · Simply Bitcoin

0:02
Yo Bitcoin has quietly rallied to $74,000 and it seems like not
0:08
that many people are noticing. Increasing by 8.5%.
0:13
Having its best week since September of 2025.
0:17
It's been a very long time so. I kind of don't.
0:21
I forgot how how the pumps. Feel right In the past seven
0:25
days Strategy has bought over 40,000 Bitcoin, which which is
0:30
nearly 13 weeks of Bitcoin supply gone but they're not
0:35
alone. Metaplanet just announced that
0:37
they've raised 500 million to buy more Bitcoin.
0:41
Are these Bitcoin companies going to end the Bitcoin bar
0:45
bear market early or is this yet another bull trap?
0:49
I'll get to my own personal opinion on this, but anyways,
0:52
let's dive in straight into the source material.
0:56
Let me pull this up here we go. Let's jump straight into it.
1:00
So very interesting post by a gentleman named perception or it
1:08
could be a her, I don't know. But anyways, this awesome
1:11
account named perception and it and it said Bitcoin just broke
1:15
above its fifty day moving average.
1:18
I think that's a big deal. Best week since September 2025.
1:22
Up 8.5%. Just hit 74 K and the
1:26
correlation with tech stocks is weakening.
1:28
So finally we're getting a dating think is a very positive.
2:03
None. Check 1-2, three.
8:05
Check 1-2, three. Check 123.
8:12
Check 1-2, three. Check 123.
8:17
Check 123. All right.
8:24
I think we're good. OK, we're good.
8:27
We're good. All right.
8:31
Cool. All right, guys, sorry about
8:33
that. Anyways, so back to this guys.
8:36
So let's talk about the let's talk about the supply shock,
8:41
what we were talking about earlier, there's just not enough
8:46
Bitcoin to go around, right? So the amount of Bitcoin that is
8:51
actively being bought by Metaplanet, just Metaplanet
8:56
alone not strategy is more than the active the the more than the
9:02
total amount of Bitcoin that is being mined.
9:06
So just metaplanet alone raised $255,000,000.
9:10
That's enough for 3500 Bitcoin. That's more than the entire
9:15
Bitcoin issuance to be mined this week 3150 all from one
9:21
company. Now add what strategy will
9:24
accumulate. The Bitcoin supply is going to
9:26
get snapped up. So that's what we that's what
9:29
we're talking about when we're talking about a supply shock
9:33
right now. Going back to what I was saying
9:36
earlier, before we were having the audio issues, Bitcoin just
9:40
broke above it's it's 50 day moving average for the first
9:44
time in two months, best week since September 2025, up 8.5%,
9:51
hit 74 K. And that correlation with tech
9:55
stocks is weakening. This is the thing that we've
9:57
been tracking across 1000 sources at BTC Perception for
10:02
weeks now. Look at the narrative categories
10:05
inside the inside the platform. Narrative change surged to 28
10:10
trends in 48 hours, nearly tied with adoption at 29.
10:15
When narrative change is that high, it means that the markets
10:18
identity is actively shifting. Bitcoin spent five months being
10:22
treated as a leveraged tech bet. That identity is changing right
10:27
now. The new identity hasn't fully
10:29
formed yet, but the data shows it's moving towards something
10:33
that trades on its own fundamentals rather than as a
10:36
proxy for NASDAQ. The last time a narrative
10:40
identity shift showed up in our data at this intensity was right
10:45
before the 2024 bull run started.
10:48
So before we were having the issues.
10:49
What I was making the case for is that this cycle has already
10:53
performed differently. What do I mean by that?
10:56
So this was the first cycle that Bitcoin made an all time high
11:02
before the halving. We also didn't have a euphoric
11:05
blow off top. Most of the gains in Bitcoin
11:09
came in the Earth the first two years after the halving.
11:14
It didn't come on the last year, right?
11:17
That is already different. That's already a change.
11:20
We didn't have the notable euphoric blow off top.
11:24
So we are we are already in uncharted territory.
11:28
So if we're already in uncharted territory, if this Bitcoin cycle
11:32
is already performing different differently, is it too much of A
11:35
stretch to say that the bear market will perform differently?
11:40
I mean, look, the math is the math.
11:43
The amount of Bitcoin that's actively being accumulated is
11:47
more than the amount of Bitcoin that is me being mined per week
11:53
and all of that. If you put all of that together,
11:56
you know it's the perfect ingredients for a supply shock,
12:01
which is why we could pretend, which is why we could be seeing
12:05
the price run up as it's been running up.
12:08
So going to sailors recent post, he just continues to gobble up
12:14
more and more Bitcoin and the amount of Bitcoin that he's
12:18
gobbling up. Again, compare this to the
12:20
amount of Bitcoin that's being mined per week, which is 3150.
12:25
Now compare this with the amount of Bitcoin that Strategy has
12:28
acquired. Strategy has acquired 22,337
12:34
Bitcoin for 1.57 billion at $70,000 per coin as of March
12:41
15th, 2026. Strategy Huddle's 761,000
12:48
Bitcoin acquired for 57 billion at an average price price of 75K
12:54
per Bitcoin. Now if you take a look at the
12:58
strategy tracker, I mean, ladies and gentlemen, Sailor has not
13:04
been taking time off whatsoever. Let's just go to the year
13:09
tracker. I mean, he's just gobbling up.
13:12
He doesn't care. This latest purchase has been
13:15
one of the biggest purchases and honestly, it's been one of the
13:19
best purchases in terms of the average price as he did buy some
13:24
at the top. He's getting Bitcoin right now
13:27
at a 50% discount. But the most important thing,
13:30
the thing that I want you to take away from today's episode,
13:34
is the amount of Bitcoin that's just being bought by strategy
13:39
and just being bought by Metaplanet is significantly more
13:44
than the amount of Bitcoin that's being mined.
13:48
So eventually one thing has to give and eventually potentially
13:53
that supply shock becomes inevitable.
13:56
This is not even mentioning Stretch.
13:59
This is not even mentioning STRC, which again we've been
14:04
talking a lot about it. Last week we were talking about
14:06
it, how much of A successful product it is.
14:09
The fact that you know there's a fixed income product that's
14:14
offering a 11% yearly return is unheard of.
14:21
If Sailor's theory of Bitcoin's Kaggar is going to maintain this
14:27
20 to 30% moving forward, the next 10 to 15 years, if that
14:33
holds up, if that is true, they're going to be able to
14:37
maintain this stretch product. They're going to be able to
14:40
maintain this STR TRC product. And with this STRC product,
14:45
they're able to accumulate more Bitcoin with it.
14:49
I mean, take a look at some of these purchases.
14:52
On January 28th, they purchased 1215 Bitcoin.
14:57
On February 17, 1158, Bitcoin. On March 2nd, 105 Bitcoin.
15:05
On March 9th, 5315, Bitcoin. On March 16th, 16, 1816,
15:15
Bitcoin. So you have strategy buying
15:19
Bitcoin, you have the STRC product, you have sovereign
15:23
wealth funds, you have Metaplanet.
15:26
They're gobbling up all of the Bitcoin and eventually they're
15:30
just going to be a supply shock. And unlike gold, that when the
15:34
price of gold appreciates, the amount of gold actively being
15:39
mined appreciates with it. Bitcoin doesn't work like that.
15:44
The amount of Bitcoin that can be mined is set in stone, and
15:48
every four years that gets actively cut in half.
15:52
And that's why you have these crazy supply shocks.
15:56
Generally the year after the halving, that's when the price
16:01
of Bitcoin tends to go up the way it does.
16:03
But I don't even think we need a halving supply shock.
16:06
I don't even think we need a mining supply shock with the
16:10
amount of Bitcoin that it's actively being purchased.
16:14
You're just going to have a natural supply shock and also
16:18
the fears of rehypothecation, the fears of paper Bitcoin.
16:23
Eventually, even if there's more Bitcoin that is actively being
16:28
sold than actively exists, eventually the math isn't going
16:33
to math. So what do I mean by that?
16:35
So let's say there's a tremendous, there's more paper
16:38
Bitcoin than actual Bitcoin that exists.
16:41
Let's say eventually people are going to add it up and they're
16:44
going to say, wait a second, why is there 25,000,000 Bitcoin?
16:48
That doesn't make sense. There should only be 21 million.
16:52
That's going to cause a massive bank run.
16:54
People are going to actively ask, you know, to, to grab their
16:58
Bitcoin, put it in self custody. And what do you think that's
17:00
going to do to the price? It's going to shoot it up so
17:05
fast, the likes of which you've never seen before in your life.
17:09
So all the planets and stars are lining up to cause the greatest
17:14
supply shock I think Bitcoin has ever seen with this amount of
17:19
Bitcoin accumulation. And this isn't even taking into
17:22
account the sovereign wealth funds buying Bitcoin.
17:26
This isn't, I got a text, I can't specifically say from
17:28
which bank, but I got a text from one of the big banks, a
17:33
friend of mine that works at one of the big banks.
17:36
And he was talking about, and this is one of the big
17:38
conservative banks, like, but huge bank.
17:40
They, they have a, they have trillions of dollars of assets
17:44
under management. And I and I got a text from him
17:46
and he's saying, like, Nico, we're actively launching a
17:50
product to, you know, service the, you know, the Bitcoin
17:54
space. And again, this is a bank that
17:56
five years ago, six years ago, I was telling my friend about
17:59
Bitcoin. He was essentially laughing out
18:01
of the room. I love him, but he was like,
18:03
look, like we this is too risky. It doesn't it doesn't produce
18:06
any cash flow. This doesn't really make sense
18:08
for us. And then now he's texting me.
18:11
He's like, look, man, we're actually looking to launch a
18:13
product that you know, is tailored for Bitcoiners, right?
18:17
So again, this is a talk about the perfect scenario, the
18:22
perfect situation, and this is it right here, ladies and
18:26
gentlemen. A supply shock is brewing and it
18:29
actually might be the catalyst for ending the Bitcoin bear
18:35
market early. That could be the case, we don't
18:38
know. I want to go through some of the
18:39
comments and I do also want to apologize again for the audio
18:43
issues in the beginning of the show.
18:45
Sorry about that. Ladies and gentlemen, people are
18:49
saying is Nico bullish today? I mean, I am feeling a little
18:52
bit bullish, but at the same time, you know, I will say that,
18:58
you know, I will say that that you know, the, the having cycles
19:03
are intact until they're not. So, you know, I, I, I don't.
19:08
Know you know I will say fire Nico.
19:15
People are giving me heat for the audio issues in the
19:17
beginning. Sorry guys, I don't know what
19:18
was going on here. I don't have opti.
19:20
Opti's out of town today so forgive me for that.
19:25
It says some chats. Michael Saylor's had enough of
19:27
your ass. That's hilarious.
19:31
Nico's bullish now. Gold is down.
19:33
Yeah. Gold is down 8% on the month
19:37
down to Bitcoin. There is no reason gold and
19:42
Bitcoin aren't much higher. Price suppression from the
19:46
derivatives markets, I think that's a really good point.
19:49
Yeah, 100%. I mean, this is what I was
19:50
talking about when I was talking about the paper Bitcoin 100%.
19:54
You can see, you know, price suppression from, you know,
19:58
essentially paper Bitcoin from from there's more Bitcoin that's
20:02
actively being sold and traded than is actually exists, right?
20:07
But this is where Bitcoin's absolute scarcity comes into
20:11
play. You can't do the same with gold.
20:13
You can't say, oh, there's only so much gold in the ground.
20:16
Eventually if you start playing these derivative games, you know
20:20
what's going to happen. Eventually people are going to
20:22
add it up and say, wait a second, there's 25,000,000
20:25
Bitcoin. There's 27,000,000 Bitcoin that
20:27
does that makes absolutely no sense.
20:30
The math ain't mathen. So next comment says the
20:35
quickest way of U.S. debt is BTC.
20:38
Why aren't you our politicians embracing it?
20:41
I think that's a really good point.
20:42
So I think the reason that U.S. politicians are, are just not,
20:47
not embracing Bitcoin. I, I, I think it has to do with
20:51
incentives. Like ultimately they were so
20:54
fast to embrace the genius act, which again, would perpetuate
20:57
the US dollar in a worldwide scale.
20:59
I think the reason that they've been kind of dragging their feet
21:02
on the clarity act a little bit more is because Bitcoin
21:05
fundamentally at the end of the day is a non sovereign
21:09
alternative. And the way that governments
21:11
fund themselves is essentially by printing money.
21:15
So, you know, it's, it's kind of like an incentive game, right?
21:20
Like ultimately, if you know, governments want more and more
21:24
people using Fiat, they're not really incentivized to for, for
21:31
their citizens to use something like Bitcoin.
21:33
They're they're just not incentivized for people to do
21:36
that. They're not even incentivized
21:38
for their citizens to learn the truth about inflation.
21:42
They're not even incentivized for their citizens to learn the
21:46
fact that money can exist without inflation.
21:49
They're not even incentivized to learn.
21:51
They're not even incentivized for their citizens to learn that
21:54
money right now is forced. You're forced to invest your
21:58
money just to maintain your purchasing power, right?
22:01
You don't have to do that. Bitcoin already solves that
22:04
problem. Governments are really not
22:05
incentivized for their citizens to find out those hard truths.
22:10
So anyways, let's go through some more of these comments.
22:15
Your money depends on fraud paper, Bitcoin bearish.
22:19
Good morning, Nico. All the perma bears.
22:23
Yeah, I mean, these are great comments.
22:27
The disintimization is because of banks.
22:30
I mean the banks is the bank thing is, is quite interesting.
22:35
Like, we know for a fact right now at this moment that the
22:39
reason as to why the Clarity Act is having such a hard time
22:45
actually getting passed on a legislative level is because the
22:50
big banks are having a problem with alternative financial
22:55
institutions, let's say Coinbase or some of the other exchanges
22:59
offering rewards, right? And it freaks them the hell out
23:02
because right now banks really don't offer interest on your
23:07
deposits, even though they're making a fortune off of your
23:10
deposits. So they're freaked out because
23:12
essentially now they have competition, right?
23:16
So it's not that Coinbase would would offer direct interest
23:20
back, but they would offer a a, they would offer an incentive in
23:25
in in the form of rewards. So if you.
23:28
Leave your Bitcoin on Coinbase. Or let's say you leave your some
23:32
cash on Coinbase, some USDC on Coinbase, you Coinbase is
23:37
actually offering you like a 3.8% return, yearly return.
23:44
And then they pay you in Bitcoin.
23:46
And if you look at Bitcoin financial on ramps like river,
23:50
they're offering you 3.8% I think or 3.5% if you use U.S.
23:55
dollars and you leave it on river.
23:58
They do offer you some form of interest, right?
24:00
So the reason that the Clarity Act isn't getting passed right
24:04
now is that banks don't want competition.
24:07
I mean, I see it's someone pull. I see it's someone comment.
24:09
Hear basically saying the choir part out loud as the reason as
24:14
to why they're not doing that anyways is it's is sitting on on
24:21
Opti's chair making Nico bullish 100%.
24:26
So Bitcoin 100K again in 10 years.
24:28
Got it. No, I think it's going to be a
24:30
lot faster than that. Could you tell us more about the
24:33
banks please? I mean, the banks right now, I'm
24:36
going to get to this in. Just a little.
24:37
Bit when I talk about the clarity act, but the the way
24:40
that you have to see the banks is that they don't want
24:43
competition and what Coinbase is doing with a lot of these new
24:49
these new banks or these new these new you know on ramps and
24:54
exchanges is that they're incentivizing their users to
24:58
leave stable coins on the platform and then they're giving
25:04
quote UN quote rewards for leaving stable coins on those
25:07
platforms. So, and that is obviously
25:10
superior to what banks currently do.
25:13
So what banks currently do is that if you leave $100 or $1000
25:19
or $10,000 on, on a, in a bank, they're giving you like .38,
25:28
like the, the interest rate is miniscule, it's tiny, it doesn't
25:31
even make sense, right? So they're freaking out because
25:38
essentially what Coinbase and all these platforms are doing is
25:40
saying, listen, if you leave some USDC on our platform, not
25:44
only will we pay you interest, but we'll pay you interest in
25:47
Bitcoin. So obviously the banks are like,
25:50
wow, people are just going to take out our take out their
25:53
deposits from the bank and they're just going to leave it
25:56
on these platforms because it, the, the platforms are, are, are
25:59
offering a superior product. But this is the basis of
26:02
capitalism. This is how it's supposed to
26:04
work, right? Like this is how things are
26:07
supposed to work. So the fact that the banks are
26:10
not willing to compete in the fair, in the free market,
26:14
they're use, they're trying to use the heavy hand of government
26:17
in order to stifle their competition.
26:20
That's not capitalism, right? That's crony capitalism.
26:23
That's using your connections in government to try to strong arm
26:28
your competition, to try to regulate your competition out of
26:31
existence, right? But what does this tell you?
26:34
This tells you that we are winning.
26:36
The Flack is heaviest over the target it full stop, right.
26:40
So anyways, we're going to get we're going to talk a little bit
26:43
more about that later on in the show.
26:44
But before we get to it, I do want to start the show.
26:47
I want to jump into it. We have tons to talk about.
26:49
We have a clip from the CFTC regarding the Clarity Act
26:54
regarding the market structure. So we have it, it's the yeah,
26:58
the chair, the CFTC chair and SCC chair talking about how
27:03
agencies are ready to implement Bitcoin market structure rules
27:07
as soon as the Clarity Act becomes law.
27:09
And then I'll tell you guys the percentage, the probability that
27:14
the Clarity Act gets signed into law in 2026.
27:17
Currently it's sitting at a higher number, but again, the,
27:21
the, the, the time is running out.
27:24
There's a high probability right now, high probability that the
27:29
Democrats win the House in November.
27:31
If the Democrats win the House in November, there's a very low
27:35
likelihood that any type of pro Bitcoin legislation, pro crypto
27:41
legislation gets passed. So you know, they're the, the
27:45
time the clock is running out. They they better pass this and
27:48
they have full support from the White House.
27:50
The White House has come out many times, including including
27:54
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, and they've come out for the
27:59
Clarity Act. And they've also, the Trump
28:01
administration has also even called out the banks for trying
28:05
to stop the Clarity Act. So it's going to be interesting
28:08
to see how all of this plays out.
28:10
But anyways, guys, no more delay.
28:12
Let's jump straight into the show.
28:14
We have tons to talk about today.
28:16
If you guys are enjoying the show so far, make sure to smash
28:19
that like button. We're going to be right back in
28:21
just a bit. Today's episode is brought to
28:25
you by Bitcoin Well Infinite. If you're a serious Bitcoin
28:28
buyer, you've probably hit the same wall.
28:30
Most platforms make you give up custody just to play by the
28:34
rules. Bitcoin Well Infinite fixes
28:36
that. They're North America's only
28:39
publicly traded, non custodial OTC desk listed on the TSX
28:44
Venture Exchange, which means transparent operations and 0
28:48
counterparty risk. You buy Bitcoin, you take
28:51
immediate control period for trades over $50,000, you get a
28:55
dedicated executive Bitcoin advisor, competitive spread
29:00
starting at 1%, and immediate delivery straight to your own
29:03
wallet. No custody risk, no withdrawal
29:06
fees, just institutional grade execution with full asset
29:10
control. If you want to buy Bitcoin the
29:12
right way, book a free consultation at
29:14
bitcoinwell.com/OTC or e-mail infinite@bitcoinwell.com.
29:21
I want to give a shout out to our partner.
29:23
Stamp Seed is your. Bitcoin and cold.
29:25
Storage really secure Are your seed phrases really secure?
29:29
Stamp Seeds Do It Yourself kit has everything you'll need for
29:32
you to hammer your seed words into commercial grade titanium
29:36
plates instead of just writing them down on paper.
29:39
Paper is fragile. Titanium plates are strong.
29:43
Your words are actually stamped into the titanium plate with
29:46
this hammer and these letter stamping tools.
29:50
Once the words are in, they aren't going anywhere.
29:53
No risk of the plate breaking apart and pieces falling
29:56
everywhere. Titanium stamp seeds will
29:59
survive nearly triple the heat produced by a house fire.
30:02
They're also crush proof, waterproof, non corrosive, and
30:06
time proof. And now you can customize your
30:09
titanium seed plates. You can upload your design or
30:13
logo and they will laser engrave it on the back of your seed
30:17
plate, the opposite side of where the words are.
30:19
Stamp your seed on stamps and use promo code simply to get 15%
30:25
off anything on the Stamp se-ed.com store.
30:33
All right everybody, we are back.
30:35
At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $73,790.00 sats
30:40
per dollar. One 1355 block height 940,918
30:48
Realized monetary inflation .83% market cap 1.48 trillion Bitcoin
30:54
versus gold market cap 4.93% Percentage issued 95.25% decline
31:02
from all time high -41.5%. So right now you're getting
31:07
Bitcoin at a 41% discount if you are buying the dip, which I
31:14
highly, highly recommend guys. I mean, think about all the
31:16
things that I just said in the beginning of the show.
31:18
I mean, supply shock incoming. The amount of Bitcoin that's
31:23
actively being bought on a daily basis is more than the amount of
31:28
Bitcoin that is being mined on a weekly basis.
31:32
Like this isn't rocket science. Eventually something's got to
31:37
give. Even if you talk about the
31:38
derivatives, even if you talk about paper Bitcoin, it doesn't
31:42
matter. Eventually people are coming
31:45
going to realize, let's take, let's play devil's advocate,
31:48
let's talk about the rehypothecation.
31:50
Let's just say they're going to go down the route they're just
31:53
going to sell more Bitcoin that currently exists.
31:57
You know what's gonna happen if they do that eventually the math
32:00
ain't gonna math Eventually people are gonna realize hey,
32:04
wait a second. Why is there they're gonna add
32:08
it up and then this is like why is there 25,000,000 Bitcoin?
32:11
Why is there 30 million this that doesn't make sense.
32:14
There's only supposed to be 20 million Bitcoin or 21 million
32:17
Bitcoin. What's going on here, right?
32:19
The moment that happens, you know what's gonna happen?
32:22
Huge, massive bank run, right? And the people that have self
32:26
custody, they're gonna look, look back and they say, oh man,
32:28
this is this is great. It's great to have custody of my
32:30
Bitcoin. And then the institutions that
32:34
have been selling more Bitcoin than they actually have, you
32:37
know, they're gonna freeze withdraws, right?
32:39
But what's gonna happen to the price?
32:41
The price is gonna shoot to high heaven, right?
32:44
So, and then, OK, so that's the worst case scenario.
32:46
That's the derivative scenario. That's the paper Bitcoin
32:48
scenario. So that doesn't even have me
32:49
worried. But let's talk about the other
32:52
side of the coin, which is, again, Michael Saylor and
32:55
Metaplanet, just those 2, not even taking into account the
32:59
sovereign wealth funds. They're buying more Bitcoin that
33:04
just them too than the amount of Bitcoin that is actively being
33:08
mined on a weekly basis. What's going to happen there?
33:11
The equation's quite simple, ladies and gentlemen.
33:14
Anyways, let's talk about the Clarity Act, shall we?
33:17
So we've been paying close attention to the Poly market
33:22
odds. The volume is quite high, so
33:25
there's a lot of people that have money on the line. 300 and
33:28
385,000 dollar, $385,000 in in volume since January 1st.
33:36
So people are making big bets on this.
33:38
Currently, the betting markets have it at 61% and gets signed
33:43
into law in 2026. If it doesn't get signed into
33:46
law in 2026, probability that gets signed into law when the
33:50
Democrats take back the House. If they take back the House is
33:55
quite low. So we're going to stay on top of
33:57
this. This would be a big win for the
33:59
Bitcoin space. It would enshrine into law the
34:04
protection of the right to self custody, which in my opinion is
34:09
it is already protected by the constitution.
34:11
But this would may this would be a double guarantee, right.
34:15
But again, the banks don't want this to happen.
34:17
They don't want this to happen. They they're not a big fan of
34:20
this law. They don't want competition and
34:22
they're not willing to play fair.
34:24
They're not willing to play by the free market rules.
34:27
They're willing to lobby the government in order to for the
34:30
government to protect their Moat at the cost of the American
34:35
consumer. Is this a government that's by
34:37
the people for the people? Or is this a government that's
34:40
by the by the people for the banks, Right?
34:43
We shall see. It's it's interesting how
34:45
Bitcoin exposes incentives, isn't it?
34:48
Anyways, here's a clip from the CFTC and the SEC chair talking
34:53
about how the agencies are ready to implement the Bitcoin market
34:57
structure law. Let's check it out.
34:59
A big piece of my agenda has been crypto, our crypto asset
35:03
markets as as you all, I'm sure tracking there's some
35:06
legislation that we're really hopefully working with David
35:09
Sacks to get across the finish line and the president, but but
35:12
that's going to be a key piece. So the CFTC would have a broad
35:16
amount of authority over the spot markets and we're getting
35:19
ready to to implement those rules should the legislation get
35:22
across the finish line. So, I mean, you heard it from
35:26
the horse's mouth himself, right?
35:27
They're ready to go. They're ready to move on this.
35:30
And this is something that the Trump administration has been
35:33
actively lobbying for. They've been, they've been,
35:36
they, they've not only been lobbying for it, they've been
35:38
actually calling out the big banks.
35:41
They've been saying, why are you getting, why are you getting in
35:44
front of this? Why are you trying to stop this?
35:46
This makes no sense. What's going on here, right?
35:50
So it's it's interesting how Bitcoin exposes incentives.
35:54
Of course, have to give a shout out to Coinbase.
35:56
I'm, I'm not a big fan, but I have to give a shout out to
35:58
Coinbase. Coinbase has been putting a
36:01
tremendous amount of effort in DC trying to lobby and get this
36:06
bill across the finish line. But it only makes sense again,
36:09
if it makes sense for the industry.
36:11
However, I will say this. The reason that Coinbase isn't
36:15
treating this like a life or death situation is because
36:18
ultimately Coinbase is already offering these rewards already.
36:22
So if you hold USDC on Coinbase right now, they're already
36:27
offering you Bitcoin rewards, which is really just Bitcoin
36:31
interests, right? So if you hold USDC, they're
36:35
offering you a certain amount of interest on a yearly basis and
36:39
they pay you that interest in the form of Bitcoin.
36:42
That's already way better than the banks.
36:45
Not only do you have to pay the monthly maintenance fee, which
36:49
is like $10 or something or $1015.00, but you also, they're
36:54
also not paying you for when they use your money because
36:58
that's how banks work. You put your money into a bank
37:01
as a form of a deposit. That bank now then takes that
37:04
money and then lends it out to someone else.
37:07
They make interest on that. That's how banks make money and
37:10
you get nothing in return. That used to not always be the
37:14
case. Banks back in the day, they used
37:16
to pay you for holding your money.
37:20
That's how it should work because ultimately they're
37:22
making money off of your money, right?
37:25
It's not like the, the money just sits there in the bank.
37:27
No, they go and loan it out, right.
37:29
So this is where banks, again, they're not playing in a free
37:33
market type of way. They're not, you know,
37:35
capitalist. They're they're this is crony
37:37
capitalism one O 1. Let's see how all of this plays
37:40
out. It exposes incentives.
37:42
This tells me that banks are scared like they don't know how
37:47
to handle this. And this tells me that again,
37:49
stable coins are going to continue to propagate not only
37:53
the United States, but worldwide.
37:55
They're just a more efficient way of payment.
37:58
Think about that. They're they're just
37:59
significantly more efficient. And I think stable coins, like
38:03
I've always said this, I had some interviews in Lugano and I
38:05
talked about this as well. Stable coins are Trojan horse,
38:09
Trojan horse for Bitcoin. And the reason for that is
38:13
ultimately a stable coin gets people exposed to a system
38:20
outside the traditional banking system, but it's doesn't solve
38:25
the inflation problem. So stablecoins don't solve the
38:30
savings issue, it doesn't solve the inflation issue, it doesn't
38:34
solve the censorship issue. It does solve the payments issue
38:38
100%. So think about it, someone who's
38:42
used to been using the traditional banking system, they
38:44
have an account with one of the big banks, right, etcetera,
38:47
etcetera. And all of a sudden they
38:50
download a wallet and all of a sudden they're able to send $100
38:54
a $1000 to, you know, their, their family member across the,
38:57
across the ocean. It's instantaneous.
39:00
It's an open blockchain. So they're able to audit, say,
39:03
look, the money was sent. It doesn't get stuck in this
39:05
like limbo, which is how the current wire system wiring
39:08
system works. No, it's instantaneous payment.
39:11
You see it, you could receive it and then you have custody of
39:14
the, of, of that said stablecoin.
39:16
But again, it doesn't solve the inflation issue.
39:20
So what? What happens once they start
39:22
asking the question, What is money?
39:24
Since they already have exposure to digital wallets and digital
39:28
assets, what's the natural step? What's the natural step?
39:32
Eventually all roads lead to Bitcoin.
39:37
So I'm, I'm, I'm very curious to see how you know, the clarity
39:41
act is going to be implemented and if it gets implemented, I'm
39:47
very excited about that. We'll stay we'll stay on top of
39:50
it. We'll see it if, if it gets
39:52
across the finish line. But it's so funny.
39:56
It's so funny. It tells me that we're winning
39:59
right when the big banks are the ones, kind of.
40:01
Freaking out and they're, they're saying like, Oh my God,
40:04
like why why is this not you know, why is this not working?
40:08
Like why like why why, why, why is this stuff not getting why is
40:12
this stuff not getting passed right?
40:15
Or, or, or better said, we should get involved and, and,
40:19
and, and make sure that this stuff doesn't get passed because
40:21
it it could potentially, you know, put our business model at
40:25
risk. Anyways, I find that
40:26
interesting. Anyways, guys, it's going to be
40:31
a it's going to be a hell of a show.
40:33
We still have tons of stuff to cover.
40:36
We're going to be right back in just a little bit.
40:39
We have a lot of things to talk about.
40:42
We'll be right back. I want to give a shout out to
40:46
our partner Leaden, the leader in Bitcoin back loans.
40:50
Leaden lets you unlock the liquidity in your Bitcoin
40:52
without. Ever.
40:53
Having to sell it. Since 2018, they've issued over
40:56
$10 billion in loans to more than 10,000 customers worldwide.
41:01
I love these guys and not only do have an account with them, I
41:04
also have a loan and here's what really sets them apart.
41:07
There are no monthly payments and you can pay back the loan at
41:11
any time. Once you send your Bitcoin as
41:13
collateral, you can have cash in your account within 24 hours.
41:17
Lennon has over 1005 star customer reviews and they've
41:21
never lost a single dollar or single sat of customer funds.
41:25
So if you want to tap. Into the wealth of your Bitcoin
41:28
without having to sell it. Head over to learn dot leadin
41:32
dot IO slash simply today and you'll get .25% off your first
41:37
loan. I want to give a shout out to
41:39
our partnersat123.com. Sovereignty isn't just about
41:43
your money, it's about your communications too.
41:46
When the grid goes down, most people go dark.
41:49
Cell towers fail in hurricanes, cyber attacks and blackouts.
41:52
The satellite phones, they don't rely on local infrastructure,
41:55
already has 77 satellites in orbit, giving you a Direct Line
41:59
anywhere in the US, even offshore.
42:02
If you hold your own Bitcoin keys, you should hold your own
42:05
commstoosat123.com also has everything you need to start
42:09
building your Bitcoin Citadel Starling, battery backups,
42:13
Faraday bags to protect your hardware wallets and much much
42:16
more. It's a one stop shop for anyone
42:19
serious about resilience and off grid independence.
42:21
Stay connected, stay independent, stay sovereign, go
42:25
to SAT ONE 123.com/simply today and use promo code simply to get
42:30
15% off anything on the store. I want to give a shout out to
42:34
our partner. Bit Key If you already self
42:36
custody your Bitcoin, you know the deal with hardware wallets
42:39
by now. Complex setups, clumsy
42:41
interfaces and a seed phrase that can be lost, stolen or
42:45
forgotten. Bit Key fixes that.
42:47
Bit Key is a multi sig hardware wallet built by the team behind
42:51
Square and Cash Out. It packs a cryptographic
42:54
recovery system and built in inheritance feature into an
42:58
intuitive easy to use wallet with no seed phrase to sweat
43:02
over. It's simple secure self custody
43:05
without the stress time names bitkey one of the best
43:08
inventions of 2024. Get 20% off at bitkey dot world.
43:13
That's BITKEY dot world with the code simply.
43:23
All right everybody, we are back So I'm not the only one to to
43:28
talk about a supply shock. He's a gentleman.
43:31
Check out this Forbes article. Time is running out.
43:35
Bitcoin is suddenly braced for a surprised price shock.
43:40
So again, lots of people thinking the same thing I'm
43:43
thinking let's, let's and it's and also we got our special
43:48
guest who just dropped in. We got the one the only.
43:52
We got the cofounder of Leaden, my brothers and my brother in
43:56
arms. We got Mauricio joining us
43:58
today. Mauricio, how you doing bro?
44:01
I'm doing excellent man. It's always a good day on
44:03
simply. Dude, thanks for joining us.
44:06
Huge news from Leaden, by the way.
44:09
Ladies and gentlemen, we have Mauricio to break it down
44:11
because it really, really is a game changer, not only for
44:15
Leaden but for the entire industry as a whole.
44:20
Mauricio, I'm going to give you the mic, the microphone, just to
44:22
kind of explain what this is. So just I'm going to tee you up.
44:26
Leaden closes a $188,000,000 Bitcoin backed bond deal.
44:33
Mauricio, how big of a deal is this man?
44:36
What does that mean? Why should people be paying
44:38
attention to this? This is a very big deal.
44:42
It is a very big deal for the Bitcoin credit market structure,
44:48
it is a big deal for Leadin and it is a big deal for Trotfi.
44:51
This is the first time a Bitcoin company has ever issued a
44:55
Bitcoin back loan ABS that is an asset backed security and that
45:00
effectively creates what many of us know as a bond offering.
45:04
And this bond offering was the first one of its kind to ever be
45:08
issued. It was the first time S&P Global
45:12
has ever rated a Bitcoin product and it was the first time S&P
45:17
has issued an investment grade rating to a Bitcoin product ever
45:23
as a first time issuer. So let N was the first company
45:27
to be ever basically put a bond like this in the market.
45:31
And a testament to how much Trapfi is beginning to
45:36
understand and wants to participate in this industry is
45:39
the fact that as we were selling the bond or as we were pitching
45:43
the bond to institutions, the market was correcting, as many
45:46
people already know, in February, early February, from
45:49
about 80 to the 60s. And this was a moment in time
45:52
where people that were investing into this asset class for the
45:56
first time, they had questions. They, they were, you know, they
45:58
had questions around how will lettuce risk engine work if
46:03
there's a drop in Bitcoin price? Will the systems hold?
46:06
Will, will everything work as planned?
46:08
And coincidentally, this was happening as we were pitching
46:12
the deal And not only did the rating not change from S&P, not
46:17
only did the deal close in the time we expected it to actually
46:21
sooner, but the deal with all those things considered was more
46:25
than two times oversubscribed. And I think this highlights how
46:30
much appetite and demand is in the institutional space.
46:36
But the other most important part of this whole thing and why
46:39
I think it's so key, if we all believe as you and I both do,
46:44
that Bitcoin will become a multi trillion dollar asset in the
46:48
future, say 3 or $5 trillion in a few years.
46:52
We believe that Bitcoin back loans, borrowing against that
46:55
same Bitcoin will also become a trillion dollar market.
46:59
Well, then the question is where is a trillion dollars going to
47:02
come from? What market is deep enough to
47:04
access that amount of dollars? And the answer is US public debt
47:09
markets, right? The ABS market that we just
47:12
tapped into is a $3 trillion market.
47:17
And it is the first time that a Bitcoin company has ever tapped
47:20
into that. And Lenin is effectively already
47:23
tapping into that liquidity and turning around and distributing
47:26
it to Bitcoiners that don't want to sell their Bitcoin.
47:28
But to layer on top of that is the fact that in that $3
47:33
trillion ABS market, there is 80% of those bonds in that
47:39
market are investment grade rated bonds.
47:43
Only 20%, an estimated 20% of ABS bonds are non investment
47:48
grade, which really means that if you want to tap into that
47:52
market in a scalable way, you have to deliver an investment
47:56
grade rated product. It is very difficult to achieve
48:00
an investment grade rating. It is the top of the mountain in
48:04
terms of debt. And to pause this, this
48:07
monologue for now, I can get into why letting is so uniquely
48:12
positioned to be one of the first companies, I would argue
48:15
probably one of the only ones. It's not the only one that can
48:18
issue an investment grade rated product into this market and we
48:21
can break that, but I'll pause for now.
48:23
I mean, first of all, Mauricio, that that is incredibly
48:27
exciting. I mean, the way that I'm seeing
48:29
this, Mauricio is like this is just.
48:33
Further. Legitimate.
48:35
Not that our industry needed this, but it's further LED
48:39
legitimization of our industry in the eyes of traditional
48:44
finance. Like man, I saw.
48:46
You on the floor of the New York like you were.
48:50
You were called in, I think it was from your studio, but you
48:52
were called in to, you know, a, a, a traditional financial show
48:57
the other day. So the way that I'm seeing this
49:00
as a Bitcoiner man, you know, five years ago, we were written
49:03
off. We were not taking seriously.
49:05
You heard all the headlines basically look, the bitcoins and
49:08
index for money laundering. I mean, you've heard the
49:10
countless things that they would say about us.
49:13
And now the fact that you guys are getting a triple B rating
49:18
and not only is is did the bond offering, not only was it
49:22
successful, it was over oversubscribed man.
49:26
This is the legitimization of Bitcoin as an asset class within
49:31
traditional finance and you guys are leading the way.
49:34
Am I reading that correctly? You're reading that correctly.
49:38
And I would say, oh, and I would argue I'm going to take a bold,
49:41
a bold statement here, but I believe that what Lenin's ABS
49:45
offering Lettin's ABS offering will have a similar impact into
49:51
Bitcoin credit, Bitcoin back loan credit markets as Michael
49:56
Michael and strategies preferred and convertible bonds had in the
49:59
equity markets keeping like again, I want to, I want to
50:03
highlight some very important differences between other
50:07
institutional products that have been offered around Bitcoin in
50:10
the past, IE strategies preferred or strategies
50:13
convertible bonds. In those offerings, you were
50:19
always taking Bitcoin price risk, some form of Bitcoin price
50:23
risk because you were either buying equity in in the
50:26
preferred stack of of strategies, which is basically a
50:29
Bitcoin treasury company, meaning you are taking Bitcoin
50:31
price risk to get that yield as the better Bitcoin does, the
50:35
better strategy does. And therefore your yield is
50:37
impacted similarly with the bonds and similarly with
50:40
offerings from such as Coinbase corporate bonds.
50:43
So again to highlight this corporate debt is very different
50:46
than the SPV which is issued. But to highlight the
50:49
differences, the corporate debt from Coinbase and from strategy
50:53
to date none of it has been able to achieve investment grade like
50:58
ratings, right. None of this is the first
51:01
Bitcoin bond ever to receive investment grade, including all
51:05
the ones that came previously, including strategies bonds,
51:08
including Coinbase's bonds. Now again, as I mentioned,
51:11
they're different corporate, they're different vehicles
51:13
what's getting rated, but it's still very at a very important
51:18
difference when you're investing in Coinbase, when you're
51:20
investing in Coinbase bonds or in strategies bonds.
51:22
Like I said, you are attaching the fate of that investment with
51:27
the performance of the underlying asset or, or Bitcoin
51:30
or you know, in the case of Coinbase, you know, a casino of
51:35
tokens. But what I will say is when the
51:38
the Lenin offering actually does not have a Bitcoin price risk
51:43
because our investors are just getting to clip a return on the
51:48
dollar investment they make into the bond.
51:50
You know, you could argue that there is an element of Bitcoin
51:52
price risk if Lenin isn't able to liquidate the loans in time,
51:56
but that is exactly what S&P spent a year digging into and
52:01
stress testing and why they arrived at the rating that they
52:04
did. So again, this is a truly unique
52:08
product. It is a very revolutionary
52:10
product and it'll have an impact that I think is a lot of people
52:14
still don't quite understand how transformative this is because
52:17
they might not have the context. But again, I do think that this
52:20
is going to create a revolution in the funding model for Bitcoin
52:25
back loans going forward because this is the most transparent,
52:30
resilient and scalable way of accessing financing for Bitcoin
52:35
back loans. Letting clients now know and can
52:38
see it as a public offering. They can see how many loans are
52:41
vended into the SMP facility, they can into the bond facility,
52:44
They can see who the custodian is.
52:47
It's Fidelity. You can see the rate that we pay
52:50
it it like I said it you cannot get more transparent and more
52:55
scalable than this. Yeah, it, it's, it's, it's
52:58
massive, it's massive. It's, it's a complete game, game
53:02
changer for the industry. And again, the, the
53:04
legitimization factor, I can't, I can't emphasize that enough
53:10
because you know, for, for the longest time, our industry was,
53:14
it was just counted off. It's like, you know, these
53:15
crazy, crazy guys. And then I, I actually got a, a
53:18
text Maudisio. I, I don't want to be specific
53:21
in terms of the, the bank name or whatever, but I got a text
53:24
from someone high up in one of the big banks and we went to
53:27
school together and he was basically talking to me about
53:30
like they were about to launch a, a Bitcoin related product.
53:35
And you know, this is the type of person that, you know, 5 to
53:38
10 years ago I was talking to, talking to him about Bitcoin and
53:41
he was just writing me off. He's like, no, this is crazy.
53:43
Like this is for, you know, this is for all these bad things.
53:47
This is not real money. And now he's getting excited.
53:49
He's like, look, we're thinking about launching a product, you
53:52
know, with Bitcoin, you know behind it, right?
53:55
And I'm like, wow, this is a this is a complete game changer.
53:58
Now I want to know how you feel, my friend, because I know how
54:02
much you work. You've built this with your bare
54:04
hands with your Co founder. Who's also awesome, by the way.
54:09
How do you feel, dude? 2018 till now, Do you believe
54:14
that? Are you still comprehending
54:17
this, right? You come from very humble
54:19
beginnings, right? I know your parents, they're
54:21
awesome, right? And you know you came from
54:25
Canada, right? And and and you've.
54:27
Reached this level of success money.
54:29
So you personally building a a a a a a Bitcoin collateralized
54:34
loan business the right way, which is why you were able to
54:37
survive the the massive collapse that happened with Celsius and
54:40
block Fi and all this. How are you feeling right now?
54:43
How are your emotions dealing with this my dude?
54:47
I'm I'm incredibly happy. I, I'm incredibly proud.
54:51
I, I feel immensely proud of the team.
54:54
Keep in mind, letting is a team. Letting isn't me and isn't just
54:58
me and Adam and I want to make sure that I'm giving credit
55:02
where credit is due for the amazing people we haven't let
55:05
in. I want everybody listening to
55:06
know that this isn't just me or Adam that are living and
55:09
breathing this thing. We have a team of 70 plus of the
55:13
most amazing bitcoiners I've ever met and we come in every
55:17
morning, ride or die, rain or shine, to do everything we can
55:22
to build the best Bitcoin back home product ever.
55:24
That's all we do. That's literally all we do.
55:26
And that's all we've been doing for eight years.
55:29
And what I would say is what, what I, what, what I take away
55:33
from this is that you, you have to put in the work that the
55:38
reason Lenin is, is doing, able to do what we're doing today.
55:42
The reason we were able to get rated by a company like S&P is
55:45
because we've been doing this for eight years.
55:48
When you're looking at bond offerings like this, they want
55:51
to see history, they want to see a track record.
55:54
And I know eight years might sound like a long time for us
55:56
Bitcoiners, but in Tratfi, 8 years, you're an infant, right?
56:01
And so we're here because we have 8 years of perfect track
56:08
records and the eight years that I'm mentioning and referencing
56:11
for 8 for that perfect track record, we're not glamorous
56:14
years. We're talking 2018.
56:17
We're talking being laughed out of the room.
56:19
We're talking being ridiculed after the COVID crash.
56:22
We, we were talking about people questioning whether blending was
56:26
ever going to be a thing after FDX.
56:30
We've overcome. And the thing that makes me the
56:33
most proud is that we've never veered from our goal in down
56:39
markets or in up markets. In up markets, you always have
56:42
this temptation to add new things, to add new speculative
56:46
assets to it, to do more to make more money, right?
56:52
That's the kind of shiny lights that in this industry as a
56:54
founder, the hardest part is to be able to stay disciplined and
56:58
focused because the more you start doing things, the more
57:00
complex the business gets and you lose sight of the goal,
57:03
right? And so at Lenin, we've only been
57:05
doing Bitcoin back loans. We've never pivoted, we've never
57:08
changed. That's all we've done for eight
57:10
years. And it's that conviction, that
57:13
dedication that has got us to where we are today.
57:17
I would say that a big part of why we were able to do this
57:22
offering was, again, because of our track record, because of our
57:25
track record of doing things right from a risk management
57:29
perspective, from a compliance perspective, we have a perfect
57:31
track record from a legal and compliance perspective.
57:34
I don't think there's many other Bitcoin companies that can say
57:36
that, right? And the same goes for for risk
57:39
management and liquidations, right?
57:41
We have a perfect track record of Bitcoin back loans in over 8
57:44
years. Block fields just went under
57:46
today, right? Like another one.
57:49
And I know that's the sort of rolls of your tongue, right,
57:51
When you say 08 years, eight years doing Bitcoin back loans
57:55
and still being here is saying a lot, right?
57:59
Many of the companies you're seeing here or today or you're
58:01
seeing on these ads, they're probably one or two years old.
58:04
The products cannot be longer than one or two years old,
58:06
right? And so, yeah, it looks great.
58:08
But as S&P and other ratings agencies will tell you, it's
58:14
about consistency over time. It's not about how great you
58:17
look in this moment, right? That's how a lot of people
58:22
looking great gets you excited, gets you convinced, makes you
58:25
put your guard down, right? That's why all these new
58:27
companies are trying to come out, you know, with these crazy
58:30
outrageous offerings. And if you're looking at stuff
58:33
that doesn't make sense, it's, it's hard to say, man, this
58:38
looks too good to be true, right?
58:39
Like when you're on the other side.
58:41
But there are things that are too good to be true.
58:44
And they are still out in the market today.
58:45
I don't think block Fields will be the last Bitcoin lending
58:49
company to have issues. Think there's you're going to
58:51
see more and more of that, especially as competition heats
58:54
up and they try to get more and more aggressive, right?
58:58
We've seen this movie before, right?
59:00
And we're not here to maximize what we can get the next quarter
59:05
or bump up our AUM so we can get a better valuation.
59:08
Like that's not the game we're in.
59:10
The game we're in is giving you the dollars you need today and
59:14
keeping your Bitcoin safe. And I know if I do that right,
59:18
that Bitcoin that you gave me today for that loan is going to
59:20
be worth 10 times more in 2-3 years.
59:23
And if I do my job right, next time you need a loan, where you
59:25
going to go? You're going to come back to me.
59:28
So to me, I got in at the lobby ground at the lobby level with
59:31
the Bitcoiners, right? I want to grow with them.
59:35
I want us all to grow together. That's how we all win, right?
59:38
I don't win if you guys don't find benefit from a Bitcoin back
59:43
loans, right? And so the better you do, the
59:47
better I do. And that's the beauty of having
59:49
aligned incentives, right? Absolutely, absolutely.
59:52
Now, Marisha, I I do want to ask you, you know, and and I, you
59:58
know what I'm going to I'm going to save this for for after the
1:00:01
break. But 11 bond related question
1:00:05
more where does this go from here is do you expect other?
1:00:11
Bitcoin collateralized companies, Bitcoin
1:00:13
collateralized loan Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin loan companies
1:00:20
to follow suit or is letting uniquely suited to offer this
1:00:24
because of the way that you guys conduct business in terms of the
1:00:28
proof of reserves that you guys offer?
1:00:30
The ways that you guys have operated for so long are are is
1:00:35
letting uniquely positioned to have this type of rating or is
1:00:42
this something else that other companies are looking at and
1:00:45
saying, hey, you know, we should probably follow suit or are they
1:00:48
just not? Are they just not structurally?
1:00:51
Able to to do something like that.
1:00:54
Both are true. So I would say that number one,
1:00:58
Lenin is uniquely positioned today to offer this product and
1:01:01
I'll and I'll breakdown why. To offer a product like this you
1:01:05
need size. Our offering was $188,000,000,
1:01:09
but we need to have multiples of that in terms of loan inventory
1:01:13
in order to continue vending loans into that facility as some
1:01:16
loans get repaid, right? So you need to have a book.
1:01:20
The minimum offering size for this market is in the hundreds
1:01:23
of millions of dollars. So you need to have multiples of
1:01:26
that in order to have the right size to achieve one of these
1:01:30
offerings. So just on a size perspective
1:01:33
alone, we are the only I believe consumer Bitcoin back lender
1:01:37
that is at the size that we are, right.
1:01:40
Like you know, Lenin is the north of $750 million today, the
1:01:45
size of our book. I don't think other people have
1:01:47
that size in that, in those quantum levels.
1:01:50
But more importantly others might have the size in the
1:01:53
institutional world, you might have $500 million loans.
1:01:57
The challenge is bonds don't like concentration, right?
1:02:02
Like if if you're $100 million facility or if you're 500
1:02:05
million facility, it's just five guys.
1:02:07
That's a big problem. So what makes lead and unique is
1:02:10
that those $200 million are made of thousands and thousands of
1:02:14
clients, right? And we have other thousands and
1:02:17
thousands on the other side that we keep vending in.
1:02:19
So you need to have the size and the distribution of that size,
1:02:24
right? Like you, you need to have that
1:02:26
size to be broadly distributed, right?
1:02:28
That that's the other one. The third one is you need an 8
1:02:31
year track record, right? Like not many companies have a
1:02:35
perfect eight-year track record, which is another gating item.
1:02:41
And so and the last one is a regulatory posture.
1:02:45
Lennon has a squeaky clean track record.
1:02:47
We've never had issues or fines. I don't think many other
1:02:50
companies going to say that either, right?
1:02:52
That said, what we have done is revolutionary in the sense that
1:02:57
we've tapped into a trillion dollar market like fees like we
1:03:04
could presume presumably or hypothetically continue
1:03:07
originating hundreds of millions of dollars every month and keep
1:03:10
going into the ABS market and selling off all that inventory
1:03:14
into the ABS market, right? That is the most scalable way of
1:03:21
doing this. And the more you do that, the
1:03:23
better the rating gets, the better the cost of the capital
1:03:26
gets and it becomes this sort of virtuous cycle, right.
1:03:32
And so we're going to, I think that this is going to be the top
1:03:36
of the mountain as far as funding and others are going to
1:03:38
have to basically be get themselves in shape to get into
1:03:42
the market is this market. Is there AI agree, is there a
1:03:46
first mover advantage to this as well?
1:03:48
Maunicio, the fact that you guys were first to achieve this, what
1:03:52
is the significance of that? Absolutely it is the as as
1:03:55
you'll read and don't take it from me.
1:03:57
You guys can everybody can go and read this.
1:03:59
But when you issue, when you do anything in life, right, the
1:04:04
first time you do it, you're the new current, you're the newcomer
1:04:07
into the market. People don't know you, you don't
1:04:09
have a history. They don't there's no precedent.
1:04:11
A product like this has never been done.
1:04:13
So people have to wrap their heads around this so they can
1:04:16
better price the risk, right. The more you're interacting with
1:04:20
something, the better you can assess the risk, right?
1:04:23
And the better you can price that risk.
1:04:25
And so again, if you're the first to the market, if you were
1:04:29
the first deal everybody looked at, everybody found out,
1:04:33
everybody found out about the product through you, you have a
1:04:36
really good chance at continuing to make that better, right?
1:04:41
Is there, is there a guarantee that you're always going to be
1:04:43
the best in the first? It's not a guarantee, right?
1:04:46
But we were the first ones to break it and we have basically
1:04:50
all hands on deck to be the leaders, not only in Bitcoin
1:04:53
back loans and originations, but loans have two products, loans
1:04:57
have loans have two clients. There's a person borrowing the
1:05:01
money, you're the person you're originating the loan to, but
1:05:05
then you have to go source that money.
1:05:08
Both have to be able to scale. If you do originations but you
1:05:12
don't scale the funding, you don't have a loan.
1:05:14
If you scale the funding but you have no originations, you don't
1:05:17
have a loan. If you have scalable funding and
1:05:20
scalable originations, we have a world class company.
1:05:24
That's what we're trying to build.
1:05:25
I love it, love it. All right, everybody, we're
1:05:27
going to be right back after the break.
1:05:28
We're going to be talking about Leaden and I'm going to be a
1:05:34
little bit biased here, but guys, usually, you know, getting
1:05:37
a loan when Bitcoin is 50% down might, might not be a bad idea.
1:05:41
I don't know if Marisa could say that, but I could definitely say
1:05:44
that we're going to be right back in just a bit.
1:05:47
I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
1:05:50
Technologies. Fueled by clean energy, Hive has
1:05:53
quadrupled its global Bitcoin mining footprint and channels
1:05:57
that same scale into high performance compute, where their
1:06:01
AI cloud is now ranked number one in the world for network
1:06:05
performance. At Hive, you've got dual
1:06:08
engines, Bitcoin and AI humming, roaring, accelerating and
1:06:12
unison. They're lean and mean, they're
1:06:14
green and clean, and they're rewriting the playbook on
1:06:17
sustainable digital infrastructure.
1:06:19
You can catch the latest buzz at Hive Digital Tech or at Hive
1:06:23
digitaltech.com. All right, everybody, we are
1:06:30
back with Mauricio. Mauricio is the Co founder of
1:06:34
Leaden. Mauricio.
1:06:36
I'm just going to, I'm just going to be blunt and say it
1:06:38
because I could totally say it. Usually taking back a Bitcoin
1:06:42
back loan when Bitcoin's 50, you know 50% down, you know ends up
1:06:49
being a really good idea if you if you if you look back into the
1:06:53
future right Usually taking out a loan, you know towards the.
1:06:57
Top, you know it comes with more risk if you're able to manage
1:07:01
the you know, the, the, the, the LTV, you're fine.
1:07:06
But here taking a loan, taking a loan at these levels when
1:07:10
Bitcoin's 50 percent down from the top it's near the all time
1:07:13
high of 2021. You know it, it definitely comes
1:07:17
with with less risk. It doesn't mean it's risk less,
1:07:21
but it definitely comes with risk It with less risk because
1:07:23
bitcoins already down, you know, 4045% right.
1:07:28
So from like a historical basis, you know, these are the times
1:07:31
where I'm looking at it and I'm saying, you know, again, it, it,
1:07:35
it tends to be a lot more attractive.
1:07:37
And again, whether it's, you know, getting Bitcoin to buy or
1:07:40
taking out a loan to buy more Bitcoin or, you know, taking out
1:07:43
a loan to, you know, fund your lifestyle, right, whatever that
1:07:46
is, or grow your business or whatever it is.
1:07:49
So I, I, I want to get your thoughts on this, Mauricio, what
1:07:52
have you seen from your end? Like, have people been more
1:07:55
excited? Have people been taking out more
1:07:57
loans now that the price of Bitcoin has been down?
1:08:00
Have people been, you know, taking this time to close out
1:08:03
the loans to? Pay off the loans, I want to get
1:08:06
your take. Definitely and happy to share
1:08:09
what we, you know, what we're seeing.
1:08:11
So what I would say is as of February that the move in
1:08:15
February, I think was surprising to a lot of people, myself
1:08:20
included. I, I did expect some downside,
1:08:22
but I do think that we, we went further than I think myself and,
1:08:25
and others expected in terms of the, the price.
1:08:28
I did notice in the, I want to say the sort of tail end of
1:08:32
March, sorry tail end of February that people were in
1:08:37
this sort of we don't know how much lower we're going to go
1:08:39
mindset. And they were sending extra
1:08:41
Bitcoin to their loans sometimes like a partial repayment.
1:08:44
Some people like fully repaying the loans and taking the Bitcoin
1:08:47
out to self custody. And these are normal.
1:08:49
This is normal behavior in this type of market that that and
1:08:54
again, anecdotally, I say this because I saw I speak to for our
1:08:57
clients pretty much every day. That's that's what I do.
1:09:00
And so I would say that I didn't sense a shift as of, I want to
1:09:04
say about two weeks ago where, you know what, what we typically
1:09:09
see during these types of cycles is, you know, markets are coming
1:09:11
down. Of course, this triggers a big
1:09:13
rush for people to start sending Bitcoin repaying loans.
1:09:17
There were we did see some liquidations back in February
1:09:20
5th or 6th and after that sort of subsides after the, after we
1:09:24
reach the low and the price kind of settles that there's like a
1:09:28
period, I want to say there's like a one week period where
1:09:31
people are still maybe it's PTSD, maybe it's sort of recency
1:09:35
bias, but they're still looking down and trying to say, well,
1:09:38
OK, if I send this much Bitcoin, I'm good until 40.
1:09:40
If I send this much Bitcoin, I'm good until 30.
1:09:42
So they start basically like, you know, planning worst case
1:09:44
scenario and they and they look at the they, they look down,
1:09:47
they, they start looking down as opposed to looking up, right.
1:09:50
What I noticed as of I want to say again two weeks ago, maybe
1:09:55
last week was a, a bigger sort of a big shift, but the, the,
1:09:59
the sentiment seems to be shifting away from, I don't how
1:10:04
much lower are we going to go to?
1:10:06
I think we're basically going to start.
1:10:08
The market's going to turn around and start.
1:10:09
People are starting to look up again.
1:10:11
They're starting to say, OK, I'm happy to take notes at these
1:10:14
levels. I feel comfortable taking notes
1:10:15
at these levels. I think a lot of it or some of
1:10:18
it, one of the big changes also in terms of sentiment was when
1:10:21
Bitcoin held after the US attacks on Iran.
1:10:25
I think that one, and it was, it was the case for me too.
1:10:28
When I saw Bitcoin holding up in the, in light of these recent
1:10:32
attacks, I said to myself, my thought to myself was, OK, the
1:10:35
sellers are basically exhausted. You know, you know how they used
1:10:38
to, they, they play that meme like the sellers are exhausted
1:10:40
and they put those two guys like working out and they're throwing
1:10:42
the balls and like the sellers. But I actually think that when I
1:10:46
saw that in the context of the Iran attacks, that was my first,
1:10:50
one of my first sort of moments where I said, OK, the sellers
1:10:54
are exhausted, right? This, this seems like everybody
1:10:56
that was going to get force sold or liquidated, you know, that
1:11:00
that got flushed out. And, and what I'll say, the
1:11:03
other thing I'll say in terms of the nature of these events is
1:11:06
that most often the, that the people that are in there that
1:11:10
end up selling, you know, near the lows aren't usually willing
1:11:16
sellers, if that makes sense, right?
1:11:18
Like these are usually people that are forced sellers, forced
1:11:22
sellers either because they got liquidated or they got
1:11:24
overstretched or some other part of their portfolio got hurt and
1:11:27
they have to come and sell it at a price that was less than
1:11:30
optimal. And So what I'll say is like,
1:11:31
once you get, once you flush out all those unwilling sellers, all
1:11:36
the willing sellers are also gone.
1:11:38
And therefore the imbalance shifts to, OK, there's not
1:11:41
enough Bitcoin left to buy of the people that want to get in.
1:11:44
And I think we're starting to see that now because, you know,
1:11:48
dancing or flirting with 74. I think if I see a weekly close
1:11:51
over 75 I'm going to feel a lot better, but I do like the price
1:11:56
action I'm seeing recently. Yeah.
1:11:58
And and I was talking about this earlier Mauricio, you know that
1:12:01
this cycle it was very different and the reason that it was very
1:12:05
different is because we had an all time high before the halving
1:12:10
the most of the price action, most of the price appreciation
1:12:14
happened in the first two years rather than the third year,
1:12:17
which is historically usually when you see that that euphoric.
1:12:20
Blow off top. We didn't see that this cycle.
1:12:23
What we saw was as most of the price appreciation happened in
1:12:26
the first two years and then the all time high being reached
1:12:30
before the halving, right? And of course you can say that
1:12:32
that had to do with the ETF. But my basic thesis is like,
1:12:36
look like if the Bitcoin cycle performed differently from a
1:12:40
price appreciation perspective, why wouldn't it perform
1:12:45
differently from a bear market perspective, right?
1:12:47
And I think that is something that could catch a lot of people
1:12:50
off guard because I think a lot of people are bracing for that
1:12:53
tradition, you know, bear market.
1:12:55
And then connecting that with what I was talking about in the
1:12:58
beginning of the show in the hook, there's a supply shock
1:13:03
that's coming. I mean, the amount of Bitcoin
1:13:07
that just, I'm not even talking about the sovereign wealth
1:13:10
funds. I'm not even talking about, you
1:13:11
know, big players just talking about strategy and metaplanet,
1:13:17
the amount of Bitcoin they are buying versus the amount of
1:13:20
Bitcoin that's being mined on a weekly basis.
1:13:24
They're buying magnitudes more than the the amount of of
1:13:30
Bitcoin that's actually actually being mined, right?
1:13:32
So eventually something's got to give.
1:13:35
Eventually you will have this type of supply shock type of
1:13:40
situation and you might see Bitcoin, you know, appreciated
1:13:44
in, in, in, in a moment that you don't expect, right?
1:13:48
All the ingredients for that to happen are all being lined up.
1:13:52
I mean, the amount of Bitcoin they are purchasing.
1:13:55
Sailor just made one of his largest purchases in a very,
1:13:58
very long time. I think it was a $1.57 billion.
1:14:03
And usually when he made these purchases, they were towards the
1:14:06
top. This is one of the first
1:14:08
purchases, massive purchases he's made when bitcoins gone
1:14:12
down like 40 to 45%, right? So I, I don't know how much you
1:14:16
believe in that theory, Mauricio, but I do want to get
1:14:18
your take because this is this is a big theme of today's show.
1:14:22
Is this idea of a supply shock man because they are buying
1:14:26
massive amounts of Bitcoin? I, I echo a lot of what you said
1:14:33
and I've been looking at that data as well.
1:14:35
I think that that not just you, I've heard that from several of
1:14:39
my clients already and, and some of my friends in the industry,
1:14:43
just this imbalance between the pace at which MicroStrategy,
1:14:46
MicroStrategy and, and others are acquiring Bitcoin versus
1:14:49
this sort of pace at which Bitcoin's getting mined.
1:14:52
And others can see that that delta, right?
1:14:58
Obviously, how this resolves and when this gets resolved, nobody
1:15:01
has a crystal ball. But like you, I think that if,
1:15:05
if I just look at the at the setup, right, the setup is you
1:15:09
have institutions that are just buying and buying Bitcoin hand
1:15:13
over fist at A at a faster clip than the Bitcoiners are mining
1:15:16
it. Alex Leishman from River did a
1:15:19
great presentation at strategy for corporations where he's
1:15:22
highlighting the difference in consumption or, or basically the
1:15:26
man patterns between institutions and people,
1:15:29
individuals. And he's basically, you know,
1:15:33
highlighting that institutions and businesses are buying
1:15:35
Bitcoin, bitcoins, trading hands from the institution, from the
1:15:40
people that got in early to the institutions that are now
1:15:42
getting in with a much longer term horizon, right?
1:15:45
Like if you look at early bitcoiners, you get into that
1:15:48
asset 12 years ago, 14 years ago, call it right.
1:15:53
Let's say you got into that asset in your, you know, early
1:15:57
30s, right? You're now mid 40s looking at
1:16:01
50. Your life's changed quite a bit,
1:16:03
right? Like you're no longer in this
1:16:05
aggressive accumulation stage. You're probably already thinking
1:16:08
about, Oh well, I'm going to set some things aside for my kids.
1:16:11
Like your, your mindset changes. And I think from a demographics
1:16:14
perspective, it makes a lot of sense that a lot of the Bitcoin
1:16:17
individual bitcoiners today have created a massive amounts of
1:16:21
wealth for them. They want to realize some of
1:16:24
that wealth. That's why Bitcoin back loans
1:16:26
are exploding. That's why you're seeing a lot
1:16:28
of those volumes of individuals selling and institutions buying
1:16:31
because individuals are basically having their liquidity
1:16:35
event, right. I, I think there was a, a big
1:16:37
piece on that a few months ago. And I do, I do subscribe to that
1:16:39
thesis. So I agree with you on the sort
1:16:43
of impending slash imminent supply shock in terms of timing.
1:16:47
What I hear from some of the smartest guys I follow and and
1:16:50
I'm friends with is I, I like to look at people's incentives as a
1:16:57
equally as I do numbers and math and liquidity.
1:17:00
And why do I say that? I say that because we have a
1:17:03
midterm election in November in the United States.
1:17:06
Historically, markets tend to do very well leading up to set
1:17:10
elections unless there's some type of exogenous shock or
1:17:14
something that the government, incoming government can't to
1:17:16
really control. But being that we are going to
1:17:20
be, you know, going into the US midterms, Trump, you know, has
1:17:25
been, you know, shown to do whatever he wants or, you know,
1:17:28
a lot of the stuff he wants. It just gets done.
1:17:31
I would not be surprised if we saw a big concerted push to get
1:17:36
markets in a really good place or in good shape leading up to
1:17:40
the November midterms. And I think if you if you
1:17:43
overlay that to sort of the liquidity cycles or Bitcoin
1:17:47
housing cycles, a lot of the signs are pointing to a great
1:17:52
sort of summer slash fall for markets.
1:17:55
And equally a lot of people are saying, well, market peaks at at
1:17:58
at midterms and then we roll off from there.
1:18:01
I'm not sure, but I think that we're going to have a good few
1:18:06
months for markets from now on to the midterms.
1:18:11
Absolutely. I mean, it, it, it, it all boils
1:18:14
down to incentives, right? And they are incentivized 'cause
1:18:17
they, they wanna hold the house ultimately, right?
1:18:21
And a big part of Trump's voting demographic, whether he likes it
1:18:25
or not, are the Bitcoiners, right.
1:18:27
That's really what moved the needle.
1:18:29
You could make the argument that that's really what allowed him
1:18:32
to win the previous election. You can make a very strong
1:18:34
argument about that. So obviously, you know, he's
1:18:38
kept all his promises from Bitcoin 2020. 4.
1:18:42
The only promise he hasn't kept is Bitcoin hasn't yet gone to
1:18:45
the moon. So maybe President Trump could
1:18:48
pull that off this year. Anyways, before I do wrap up the
1:18:51
show, I do want to give a very special shout out to one of our
1:18:56
sponsors. And I know Marisa is going to be
1:18:58
there. I'm going to be there.
1:18:59
Bitcoin 2026, It's April 27th through the 29th at the Venetian
1:19:05
Hotel. I call this Bitcoin Super Bowl
1:19:07
weekend, you guys. Don't want to miss it, Marisa.
1:19:11
Are we going to still? Do something special.
1:19:12
Big. A big announcement do we have?
1:19:16
A cookin we are, we are it's going to be a, a pretty amazing
1:19:20
story. And I just think I, I, I like
1:19:24
continuing to as, as it happens to me, right?
1:19:27
Like sometimes I'm talking to our clients and I and they,
1:19:30
they're telling me the stuff they're doing with the loans and
1:19:33
I am blown away. I'm, I'm blown away at how
1:19:37
incredible their projects are and, and not just from a
1:19:42
financial perspective. And this is what I think we're
1:19:44
going to highlight in Vegas is not every loan goes out to, you
1:19:51
know, machines and computers and, and businesses and making
1:19:55
more money. A lot of it is very personal and
1:19:58
and so I'm excited to to share this with you in Vegas.
1:20:01
Absolutely, it's going to be great.
1:20:03
It's going to be a fantastic guys.
1:20:05
You don't want to miss it. Use promo code simply again
1:20:07
promo code simply to get 10% off guys.
1:20:11
Love you all. Thank you guys so much for
1:20:12
tuning in. Go check out Leaden.
1:20:15
If you guys use the link in the video description, you get .25%
1:20:19
off your first first loan. I need to stick.
1:20:21
Around for a little bit. Love you guys.
1:20:23
We'll see you on the next one. Today's episode was brought to
1:20:26
you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
1:20:30
mission to enable financial independence.