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Rookie Breakouts Are Here, Act Quickly · BDGE Fantasy Football

0:00
[SPEAKER_00]: What is going on, everyone?
0:02
[SPEAKER_00]: We are back.
0:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And we are fresh off and insane.
0:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Monday night football matchup, Pook and Akua is back.
0:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Devontae Adams, still finding the end zone.
0:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Josh Allen, super hero football.
0:17
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's not much time to sit back and talk about that game.
0:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got to push forward.
0:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And that starts with the week six waiver wire.
0:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be honest, it's ugly.
0:28
[SPEAKER_00]: but there still some moves to be made.
0:30
[SPEAKER_00]: My name is Michael O'Hara.
0:32
[SPEAKER_00]: No friends and enemies anymore.
0:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's get right into it.
0:36
[SPEAKER_00]: As always, we will get things rolling with the quarterbacks.
0:39
[SPEAKER_00]: The first name that I'll quickly throw out is Jordan love.
0:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Love is rostered in 63% of league.
0:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So he's not someone that is going to be truly featured here today, but he is an obvious pick-up.
0:50
[SPEAKER_00]: The Packers offense has seemingly found its stride.
0:52
[SPEAKER_00]: They just throttle the bears in week five, because Jordan love is just throwing haymakers left and right.
0:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And you look at the upcoming schedule, Dallas and Detroit, Dallas will be at home.
1:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Detroit will be on the road in a dome to Primo fantasy matchups for our quarterbacks.
1:11
[SPEAKER_00]: If love is not rostored in your league and you are in need of a short term starter.
1:16
[SPEAKER_00]: He is the name to target, but looking at some guys who are rostored in less than 50% of leagues,
1:22
[SPEAKER_00]: The big name is Aaron Rogers.
1:24
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about him last week and it is very much the same story.
1:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Rogers has not been especially efficient this year.
1:33
[SPEAKER_00]: You look the numbers from last week.
1:35
[SPEAKER_00]: He has 235 yards.
1:37
[SPEAKER_00]: 80 of them come from a dump off to Jalen Warren that he has a total house call out.
1:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we could have the Jalen Warren conversation.
1:44
[SPEAKER_00]: He has been sensational.
1:45
[SPEAKER_00]: But that is not what we're here to do.
1:47
[SPEAKER_00]: The story remains the same all year long.
1:50
[SPEAKER_00]: especially efficient but the pass volume continues to be there 40 pass attempts 39 40 pass attempts 31 last week and the Steelers remain one of the most pass heavy offenses in the NFL ranking towards the top of the league and pass rate over expectation.
2:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And the other one that stands out here is three touchdowns in each of the last three games.
2:11
[SPEAKER_00]: That is obviously helping his fantasy production.
2:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think until we see otherwise, until we see the volume start to come down or Rodgers hot hand in the red zone start to fall off.
2:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he is someone who can be in the weekly conversation for streaming options and against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers whose defense has been solid against opposing quarterbacks in the realm of fantasy football.
2:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think that you can still bank on the volume, still bank on them being generally pass heavy.
2:43
[SPEAKER_00]: That alone is enough to consider.
2:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Aaron Rogers as a streamer this week with guys like Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, four teams on by this week.
2:51
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of you will definitely have to get to a streamer, a backup guy off of the waiver wires.
2:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Rogers is definitely an interesting one.
3:00
[SPEAKER_00]: The other big name that stands out as a potential streamer in single quarterback leagues is none other than James Winston.
3:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Much like we were discussing with Rogers, the story with Winston is the one that we have grown to know for years now.
3:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Winston is a guy who is just going to go out on the field whenever he gets the opportunity and sling the rock.
3:23
[SPEAKER_00]: James has been doing that all year long in relief of Jackson Dart.
3:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Among 29 quarterbacks with a hundred plus drop-backs on the year, he ranks
3:33
[SPEAKER_00]: first in deep throw rate, and he also ranks eight in turn over worthy throw rate.
3:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So he is just pushing the ball down field, trying to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers, and he doesn't really care whether it is a dangerous or risky throw.
3:47
[SPEAKER_00]: That has been James Winston for years now, and then there's no different in 2026.
3:53
[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen that met with mixed results.
3:55
[SPEAKER_00]: He does pop up with just 6.1 points.
3:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And week three, it should be noted that that game was played in basically a hurricane just tons of rain in that one affecting the offensive play.
4:05
[SPEAKER_00]: But it turns into strong results in each of the last two weeks.
4:08
[SPEAKER_00]: He does have two interceptions in week four, which shows his willingness to get risky.
4:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But he pops up with three touchdowns in each of the last two weeks, 250 passing yards in week four.
4:20
[SPEAKER_00]: over 325 passing yards in week five, he takes advantage of a pair of cupcake matchups against the Arizona Cardinals and the Washington Commanders.
4:30
[SPEAKER_00]: It should be noted also that he has 54 pass attempts against the Commanders last week.
4:35
[SPEAKER_00]: That was a back and forth game where we saw Winston get off a ton of dropbacks and attempts.
4:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So you can't expect that very often moving forward.
4:43
[SPEAKER_00]: No
4:47
[SPEAKER_00]: But you could expect real passing volume and real success coming up against the New Orleans Saints.
4:53
[SPEAKER_00]: The Saints have been among the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking bottom 10 in scoring defense, total defense, yards per play and EPA per play against this sort of defense with Malik neighbors and Isaiah likely by his side.
5:06
[SPEAKER_00]: It would be no surprise if Winston turns in another big week.
5:10
[SPEAKER_00]: When will the wheels fall off of this train?
5:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We know it's almost certainly going to happen.
5:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know when it's going to come, but I would continue to ride the James Winston train in the short-term future, especially in a matchup against the New Orleans Saints who have proven to be unable to contain opposing offenses this year.
5:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving over to the running backs here, I'm going to kick things off with two guys who are rostered in upwards of 50% of leagues, but if you're playing in a shallower league, a 10 team league, maybe even an 18 league, these guys deserve some consideration, the top pick-up,
5:43
[SPEAKER_00]: If he's available, would be Woody Marks.
5:46
[SPEAKER_00]: We see Marks take on a bell cow roll in the wake of David Montgomery's injury.
5:51
[SPEAKER_00]: He plays virtually every single snap in this game.
5:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And if I'm not mistaken, the only snap that he did not play after Montgomery left the game was a kneel down.
6:01
[SPEAKER_00]: He plays 84.1% of the snaps, handles 15 carries and earns four targets without Montgomery in the picture.
6:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And Montgomery is now deemed weak to weak.
6:11
[SPEAKER_00]: meaning we can expect to see bell cow woody marks in the short-term future.
6:15
[SPEAKER_00]: The Texans rushing attack, it has been broken once again.
6:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, this is something that we have grown to know over the last couple of years with the Houston Texans.
6:23
[SPEAKER_00]: They rank 31st in rushing offense, 30th in yards per carry, and 23rd in EPA per rush.
6:30
[SPEAKER_00]: But even with a dysfunctional ground game,
6:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that it's encouraging to see that this offense, especially the passing game, is really hitting its stride.
6:39
[SPEAKER_00]: CJ Stroud is sling in the rock.
6:41
[SPEAKER_00]: He is providing the team with scoring opportunities.
6:44
[SPEAKER_00]: They have 18 red zone drives on the year, which is among the league leaders.
6:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So if Marks is playing virtually every single snap and he's going to have access to gold to go opportunities, that alone is enough to have some interest in Woody Marks.
6:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I would expect him to be ranked in the RB2 category this week.
7:01
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you need a spot start at running back, you just need some help in general.
7:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Woody Marx is definitely a name to keep an eye on and file a claim for.
7:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Marshall on Lloyd offers a very different outlook, but it's in some ways similar.
7:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I had advocated for dropping Marshall on Lloyd in previous weeks.
7:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And I do still think he should be left on Waverwires if you are in a good spot at running back.
7:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you
7:24
[SPEAKER_00]: desperately need a spot start.
7:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Lloyd is definitely a name to go to this past week.
7:30
[SPEAKER_00]: We saw the Packers back.
7:32
[SPEAKER_00]: He'll go from a three headed monster down to a two headed monster.
7:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Lloyd is the primary ball carrier where while Pierre strong serves as the primary pass catching back.
7:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Caleb Johnson does get some opportunities.
7:44
[SPEAKER_00]: in this game against the Chicago Bears, but they all come late in the fourth quarter, past the midway mark when the game is an entirely out of hand.
7:52
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a total blowout.
7:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Lloyd sees 10 carries in this game compared to five for strong, but I think the most important note from this game is that Lloyd is on the field for all three of the packers inside the 10 snaps.
8:06
[SPEAKER_00]: He turns two carries from inside the tent into two touchdowns that truck stick that he had was arguably almost certainly the best play that he had this season.
8:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So Lloyd has seems to have a stranglehold on the goal line role in this Packers offense.
8:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Once again, we were talking about it with Jordan Love.
8:24
[SPEAKER_00]: The offense seems to be hitting its stride.
8:26
[SPEAKER_00]: They get two terrible defenses on the schedule coming up.
8:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not expecting much from Lloyd in the rushing efficiency and overall production department.
8:35
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you can have consistent access to goal line opportunities, you can just pray that he falls into the end zone and he can be an emergency starter for teams that have just no help at RB2.
8:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Now we're going to look at some guys who are rostered in less than 50% of leagues.
8:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Another week is in the books, it's another week where we were looking to pick up an Eagles running back.
9:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It was terrible for Damian Pierce last week.
9:02
[SPEAKER_00]: You see it here.
9:03
[SPEAKER_00]: He has 13 touches on the day 11 carries and two receptions.
9:08
[SPEAKER_00]: He has, he has, he has, he has, he has,
9:10
[SPEAKER_00]: 12 yards from scrimmage.
9:12
[SPEAKER_00]: It was terrible.
9:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I will note that the offensive line was not doing him any favors.
9:17
[SPEAKER_00]: He was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on eight of his 11 carries in this game.
9:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So it is no surprise that he struggled to get anything going.
9:28
[SPEAKER_00]: But then again, we can't really expect much else.
9:31
[SPEAKER_00]: They are down to the depths of the depth of their depth chart.
9:35
[SPEAKER_00]: in the offensive line department, Lane Johnson has retired.
9:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Cam Durgens was traded injuries everywhere else.
9:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So I don't think we can expect things to be much better and considering all the other injuries that they are dealing with.
9:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Sequan Barclay, probably not going to return this week.
9:50
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see, but I'm not expecting him to return Devante Smith.
9:53
[SPEAKER_00]: It's still working his way back.
9:54
[SPEAKER_00]: This offense is truly horrific.
9:57
[SPEAKER_00]: But then again, anyone who projects to be the leader of a backfield in any given week deserves
10:05
[SPEAKER_00]: That would be the case if Barclay is not back in this game as soon as we'll ship we left in week five, Pierce handled every single snap and running back touch.
10:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we got to expect to see something similar if Barclay is unable to go in week six.
10:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So, not high expectations for Damian Pierce, not someone that I would spend a bunch of fab on, but a handful of dollars, six to eight dollars if you desperately need a start at your RB2 slot.
10:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's reasonable.
10:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Just give in our expectations for his workload and his role in this offense.
10:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And you never know if he manages to fall into the end zone hit pader, you're going to be fine with him for a week.
10:43
[SPEAKER_00]: You'll also see some Ajay P Ryan on the trending pickups list this week.
10:47
[SPEAKER_00]: He shows up and plays a pretty meaningful role for the Cincinnati Bengals in week five.
10:54
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a pretty sharp difference from what we have grown to know out of the Bengals.
10:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Chase Brown has largely been their weekend and week out bell cow since he broke out midway through the 2024 season.
11:05
[SPEAKER_00]: We see that change in week five.
11:07
[SPEAKER_00]: P Ryan plays 50.8% of the snaps.
11:09
[SPEAKER_00]: See 16 opportunities, 14 carries, which is one more than Chase Brown and earns two targets, Brown sees 17 total opportunities.
11:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And P Ryan also plays three of Cincinnati's 12 inside the 10 snaps.
11:22
[SPEAKER_00]: You see here in the box where he was relatively effective with those opportunities, turning 14 carries.
11:28
[SPEAKER_00]: into 68 yards, nearly five yards a carry and he does get a touch in the red area and turns it into a short receiving touchdown.
11:37
[SPEAKER_00]: It remains to be seen whether any of this is sticky.
11:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm not blaming the bangles for making this move getting more work to someone other than chase brown because dating back to the beginning of last season, brown has not been especially effective.
11:52
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at the efficiency metrics.
11:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Brown is not jumping off the page.
11:56
[SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't exactly been bottom of the barrel in key metrics, like Miss Tackles Force per attempt yards per carry.
12:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Yards after contact per attempt, rush yards over expectation, all that good stuff.
12:06
[SPEAKER_00]: He has been bottom of the barrel, but he's not screaming, you need to give me the ball on every single play.
12:11
[SPEAKER_00]: I need to play upwards of 80% of the snaps.
12:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And the Bengals offense had been largely ineffective on the ground to this point in a year.
12:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Brown had something like nine carries for 10 yards in week four.
12:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not shocking to see the pivot.
12:24
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll have to see if it sticks, but at a minimum, we know that we could see Smaj API Ryan factoring in a significant way.
12:32
[SPEAKER_00]: If that remains to be the case, he could have some level of standalone value, but on the flip side, even if it doesn't stick, it seems that the coaching staff trusts Smaj API Ryan as a Russia.
12:43
[SPEAKER_00]: For years, he has been known primarily as a past catching back, but if they do trust him as a Russia, which seems to be the case, he does have some interesting value as a hand cuff.
12:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would be stashing Samaja P-Rine.
12:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, not someone I'm going crazy for on the waver wire.
12:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I would be stashing him away just seeing what things look like and considering that they are on buy in week six are the Bengals.
13:05
[SPEAKER_00]: He could go under the radar in a lot of leagues this week.
13:08
[SPEAKER_00]: So file a small bid, make a small claim.
13:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Don't use the number one or a top claim on Samaja P-Rine.
13:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's an interesting bench dash.
13:16
[SPEAKER_00]: While seeing how this offense looks, how the backfield looks moving forward.
13:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Another guy that I'm interested in stashing in my IR slot if he is available in my league is Broncos, rookie running back Jonah Coleman.
13:28
[SPEAKER_00]: There's really no way to put it.
13:30
[SPEAKER_00]: The Broncos offense is facing a litany of issues.
13:34
[SPEAKER_00]: There is a lot going on, a lot to unpack when evaluating this offense.
13:38
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's no doubt about it that the ineffectiveness of JK Dobbins has been one of them.
13:44
[SPEAKER_00]: and he's shockingly given how he has played this year has a real strangled hold on the backfield carries you could say that the injury to Coleman has played a big role in that but Dobbins has 64 carries on the year that is 34 more than RJ Harvey Jonah Coleman and Tyler but they combined.
14:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So it has been largely all JK Dobbins to this point in the year in the Broncos offense.
14:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And he has not done much with those touches, among 31 running backs with at least 50 carries this year.
14:13
[SPEAKER_00]: He ranks 20th or worse in yards for carry, explosive rush rate, rushing success rate, miss tackles force per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt.
14:22
[SPEAKER_00]: It shows up on film to like JK Dobbins last week.
14:25
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a couple of chunk gains, but it's nothing particularly explosive.
14:29
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not really helping the offense.
14:31
[SPEAKER_00]: in a big way.
14:32
[SPEAKER_00]: The big question here is whether or not Sean Payton, Davis Web, and Bonix can get all of these problems with your offense as a whole ironed out.
14:40
[SPEAKER_00]: But for Coleman in particular, it would be no surprise whatsoever when he returns and he is eligible to return in week seven.
14:48
[SPEAKER_00]: When he returns, it would be no shock if he challenges JK Dobbins for the Russian work in this offense.
14:53
[SPEAKER_00]: They spoke about him in a very positive light throughout the off season.
14:57
[SPEAKER_00]: We see him get some
14:59
[SPEAKER_00]: in week two with Dobbins going down with an injury mid game and Harvey missing that game.
15:03
[SPEAKER_00]: He punches in a touchdown to have a nice little day in the fantasy streets.
15:07
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would be stashing Jonah Coleman no doubt about it if he is available in my league and just seeing how things play out for both this backfield and the offense as a whole.
15:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Before moving over to the wider sewers, I do just have to note the situation in Cleveland.
15:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Quinshawn Judkins goes down with an ankle injury in week 5.
15:26
[SPEAKER_00]: He was seen wearing a boot and he has been labeled day-to-day, Raheem Sanders, who is pulled up here, Rocket Sanders.
15:32
[SPEAKER_00]: He left the game with a hip injury as well.
15:35
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of moving pieces here.
15:37
[SPEAKER_00]: They sign Audric Estimate to the active roster.
15:40
[SPEAKER_00]: They're saying that Dylan Sampson could be returning to practice this week after he was placed on IAR.
15:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Jalil Maglothlin has popped in recent weeks with an explosive play.
15:51
[SPEAKER_00]: This backfield is a total mess.
15:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I am going to throw my hands up.
15:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to say I just really don't know how to parse through all of the injuries, the signings, the potential returns from IAR.
16:03
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a situation a monitor nonetheless.
16:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I would imagine a lot of these guys, the guys who could potentially play a role in the Browns backfield will go under the radar, go unclaimed in most leagues this week.
16:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'll just say that keep a very close eye on the reporting coming out of Cleveland seeing who's getting ready to practice, seeing who might be good to go for a week six because we could very well see this backfield transform
16:31
[SPEAKER_00]: some other guy, some unexpected guy, take on a meaningful role.
16:35
[SPEAKER_00]: If that's the case, they could very well be a viable RB2 option, really, really muddy right now, though.
16:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm probably not filing a claim on any of these guys unless I'm in a super deep league and I just wanna throw a dart on one of them.
16:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Hope that they're the one who's healthy and emerges as the top option.
16:53
[SPEAKER_00]: You could throw a dart in a super deep league.
16:55
[SPEAKER_00]: But really, this is a spot where I want to be on my toes, keeping an eye on the reports, and putting in a claim or a pickup really quickly as soon as we start to get some sort of clarity on the situation.
17:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Looking over at the wide receivers now, the top pickup of the week in my opinion is Jeremy Bernard, the second round rookie for the Pittsburgh Steelers,
17:17
[SPEAKER_00]: he really shows up in week five for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
17:21
[SPEAKER_00]: They're worth out Michael Pittman.
17:23
[SPEAKER_00]: He is on IR, he'll miss at least another three games, and then Roman Wilson goes down early in the first half, and he is expected to miss a couple of weeks.
17:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So Bernard was really asked to step up and he does so.
17:36
[SPEAKER_00]: He plays a really nice role in capitalizes.
17:39
[SPEAKER_00]: on that roll in week five, he runs around on 78.8% of Rogers dropbacks, draws nine targets, halls and six receptions, and piles up 80 yards.
17:49
[SPEAKER_00]: His nine targets lead the team, and he is narrowly vested by Jalen Warren in the yardage department.
17:55
[SPEAKER_00]: He looks really rock solid in this game and given the fact that there is no doubt that he is going to be playing a full-time role at least in the short-term future That makes him a really appealing pickup.
18:07
[SPEAKER_00]: We know that he has some level of intrigue from a prospect profile perspective He garners meaningful draft capital a lot of folks out there really liked him.
18:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I was drafting him a good bit in really deep leagues So there's a lot to like there the opportunity will be there as well
18:24
[SPEAKER_00]: The Steelers continue to be past heavy under Mike McCarthy among the league leaders in past rate over expectation.
18:31
[SPEAKER_00]: That obviously sets up quite well for both Bernard and the past headures in general.
18:37
[SPEAKER_00]: At this point, I don't know if I'm going to be
18:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Starting, Jeremy Bernard right away, but continuing to evaluate where he sits on the target tone and pull in Pittsburgh, I think that's what I would be doing.
18:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be prioritizing him on the waiver wire, but if I can avoid it, I would like to see him on my bench for at least another week seeing if he can continue to out-target decay Metcalf and play a fantasy viable role from a volume and playmaking perspective.
19:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Next up, we've got a couple of guys who I would consider roster band-aids.
19:09
[SPEAKER_00]: First up, Kendrick Born, no Marvin Harrison, Jr. anymore.
19:13
[SPEAKER_00]: He is moving over to the Houston Texans and immediately Kendrick Born assumes a pretty prominent role in the offense.
19:21
[SPEAKER_00]: His route rate sat at just 59.3%
19:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But the cardinals in this one, they use just a ridiculous amount of 13 personnel.
19:30
[SPEAKER_00]: They run 13 personnel on 40.8% of their plays.
19:34
[SPEAKER_00]: You see it show up in goal-to-go situations, Tegan, Quart.
19:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Teagan, whatever his last name was, popped up for multiple touchdowns in this game.
19:44
[SPEAKER_00]: They're utilizing Titan's left and right, we'll see if that sticks.
19:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Personally, I'm not expecting it to, but even on a limited route, right?
19:51
[SPEAKER_00]: We see Kendrick Born make his presence felt he ends the day with eight targets good for a 17.4% target share, five receptions and 70 yards.
20:01
[SPEAKER_00]: That's nothing special, 17.4% target share.
20:05
[SPEAKER_00]: But something that I have talked about at length this season, the Cardinals continue to be the fantasy circus play volume and dropback volume is plentiful, which a Kobe percent undersenter and this defense being as terrible as it is Arizona ranks fourth in total plays on the year and third in total dropbacks.
20:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So even if Kendrick Boren isn't posting incredible target share numbers, if he can steadily be right around 20% of the targets,
20:32
[SPEAKER_00]: there can be enough volume there for him to be a flex worthy option.
20:36
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not going to have a high ceiling.
20:38
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not going to be consistently out targeting Michael Wilson.
20:41
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not going to challenge training bride for targets, but a floor-driven guy, a roster bandade that can certainly be Kendrick Boren.
20:48
[SPEAKER_00]: If I just need some floor in my flex spot, I think Boren is a worthwhile pick-up on the week.
20:53
[SPEAKER_00]: same story for Keenan Allen.
20:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I really don't need to get that deep into the Keenan Allen situation.
20:59
[SPEAKER_00]: We all know exactly what we're dealing with here week one, 19.4% target share week two, 16.1% week three, 25% misses week four, then in week five, 20.9% he's not going to be making explosive downfield plays.
21:15
[SPEAKER_00]: You're using the volume as a floor and then you're just
21:22
[SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to be able to predict that week to week when he hits the end zone.
21:26
[SPEAKER_00]: We see he does so in week three and he turns in 18.3 PPR points as a result.
21:32
[SPEAKER_00]: But for the most part, you know that the volume is going to be there for Keenan Allen.
21:36
[SPEAKER_00]: That makes him someone who is not going to crush your lineup.
21:39
[SPEAKER_00]: But he's probably not going to win you your matchup.
21:42
[SPEAKER_00]: much like Kendrick born, nothing more than a roster bandaid.
21:46
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're in a tough spot at wide receiver or flex, you should probably be rostring him because of that floor, but not an exciting pickup, still someone who deserves some consideration on the week should be rostred in the majority of leagues.
21:59
[SPEAKER_00]: The other name that I want to point out, we got a couple of stashes here, moving forward, just evaluating either injury situations or guys returning from injury.
22:12
[SPEAKER_00]: CD Lamb picks up a quad injury in week five.
22:15
[SPEAKER_00]: He leaves in the fourth quarter.
22:17
[SPEAKER_00]: It was described as not serious, but I think that Flornoi is worth a pickup while seeing how that plays out because we saw Flornoi take advantage of a very similar opportunity last season.
22:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Lamb's sidelined.
22:30
[SPEAKER_00]: for a three game stretch and in that time, Florenoi had a Targets Perout run mark of 0.29.
22:36
[SPEAKER_00]: He averaged 3.04 yards per route run and averaged a shade under 10 PPR points per game in those three games.
22:43
[SPEAKER_00]: He eclipse 18 PPR points in one of those contests.
22:47
[SPEAKER_00]: We also all know the story with the Cowboys offense super pass heavy terrible defense.
22:52
[SPEAKER_00]: on the other end, forcing Dak Prescott to drop back again, Prescott isn't immensely talented quarterback.
22:57
[SPEAKER_00]: He can create fantasy value for his wide receivers.
23:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So if Lam misses time, expect Lornoi to see plenty of routes, and we know that he can earn targets alongside George Pickens that is no guarantee, but there are definitely worse options out there.
23:13
[SPEAKER_00]: If CD Lam is unable to go, I would say that Lornoi will be viewed as a wide receiver three this week.
23:19
[SPEAKER_00]: spend a couple of dollars if you need why to see her help, see what the deal is for CD Lamb.
23:24
[SPEAKER_00]: If not, you can just cut right away and make another pickup after not investing too much into this pickup.
23:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Another guide that I would be looking to stash if he was dropped in your league is Jacobi Lane.
23:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Lane was arguably the most hyped player this offseason throughout training camp.
23:42
[SPEAKER_00]: It seemed like there were reports coming in every single day about him making a sensational
23:47
[SPEAKER_00]: play just having a strong day, there was that beat reporter who was like, this is the best rookie mini training camp that I have seen in 30 years.
23:55
[SPEAKER_00]: So there was a lot of hype for Lane coming into the year.
23:59
[SPEAKER_00]: He does in the box score deliver a dud in his NFL debut, one reception for 11 yards.
24:06
[SPEAKER_00]: He does have a touchdown call back due to penalty in that game.
24:10
[SPEAKER_00]: But he also suffers a fractured wrist.
24:12
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a shortened day.
24:13
[SPEAKER_00]: for Jacobi Lane.
24:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And he has since been on IR, he is eligible to return in the very near future as soon as weeks six.
24:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And if he can return and solidify himself as the number two target behind safe flowers, there could very well be some fantasy value there.
24:31
[SPEAKER_00]: It's someone you're excited to start in good matchups because we know that Lamar Jackson is a very talented quarterback.
24:43
[SPEAKER_00]: consistently moving the ball, consistently providing the team with scoring opportunities.
24:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I would be liking the stash lane while seeing how he fits in, alongside a flower's how he fits in, alongside Lamar Jackson.
24:55
[SPEAKER_00]: He was a really, really fun rookie coming out.
24:58
[SPEAKER_00]: He was steaming up draft boards, and now that he is set to return in the near future, I would be picking him up if someone decided to get him off their team.
25:06
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, you'll see two other names here at the top of the trending pickups tab.
25:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're both reasonable guys, but I'm not really interested in picking up Darious Cooper.
25:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I talked about him last week.
25:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I was pretty dismissive of what his long-term fantasy value and short-term fantasy value would be.
25:29
[SPEAKER_00]: He stuffs me in the hurt locker.
25:31
[SPEAKER_00]: He scores
25:35
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to bet on this sort of profile like be my guest, I'm not going to be someone who is betting on this sort of guy someone who is not a consistent target earner and has been delivering big days in fantasy football because they have been spiking for touchdowns I compared this to.
25:51
[SPEAKER_00]: 2024 Mark has vowed his scantling like I was writing this up discussing MBS like he's earning four targets like that's terrible But he's somehow manages to score a 40 yard touchdown each and every week if you want to Roll the dice gamble on Darious Cooper ripping another 40 yard touchdown I'm not gonna fault you for doing so.
26:13
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not something that I would do, but it's not cool
26:15
[SPEAKER_00]: crazy.
26:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I just, the role from a volume perspective, it's not going to be consistent enough.
26:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We have our concerns about the Philadelphia Eagles passing attack in general as well.
26:26
[SPEAKER_00]: This isn't a bet that I love to make, but there's no denying that the string of touchdowns has been there and it is allowed him to finish as a viable starting option in fantasy football.
26:38
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to bet on that, continuing, be my guest.
26:41
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a similar story.
26:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll be at different with Eft and Chism.
26:45
[SPEAKER_00]: He has popped in each of the last two weeks.
26:47
[SPEAKER_00]: He has that sensational touchdown in week four.
26:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And then he shows up for five receptions and 57 yards in week five.
26:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I get it.
26:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Like he has been playing some sort of a role in this offense without Mac Hollins in the mix without AJ Brown in the mix.
27:08
[SPEAKER_00]: for me to want to invest in any of these Patriots wide receivers in the form of getting them into my starting lineup.
27:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Guys like Romeo Dobbs, that he should be rostered.
27:18
[SPEAKER_00]: You can make the argument that after tourism should be rostered, I don't want to do it because the Patriots passing in has been so incredibly spread out this year.
27:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It's honestly ridiculous.
27:28
[SPEAKER_00]: We have seen a Patriot's past catcher eclipse a 22% target share just one time this season.
27:34
[SPEAKER_00]: It has been so wildly spread out and we you just think about the Patriots game.
27:38
[SPEAKER_00]: That shows up.
27:39
[SPEAKER_00]: We have Mac Hollins pop for a week.
27:41
[SPEAKER_00]: We've had pop Douglas show up for a couple of games.
27:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Romeo Dobbs is the go-to guy in week four.
27:47
[SPEAKER_00]: There is just no way to get a firm grip on how targets are going to be distributed in this offense and who is going to show up in any given week.
27:56
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to gamble again, much like Darius Cooper, if you want to gamble on chism being that guy,
28:04
[SPEAKER_00]: sure you can do it, but I think the volatility in terms of where he falls in the target tree each and every week, I think it's too great for me to be especially interested in picking him up.
28:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I know there will be some people out there who are interested.
28:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just not going to be one of them.
28:22
[SPEAKER_00]: The final name that I will throw out there really quick is Brandon Cook's really, really gross.
28:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Not going to be prioritizing him in many leagues, but in a super deep league, I think you can make the argument.
28:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to sit here and make a substation joke, but you know the situation.
28:39
[SPEAKER_00]: in San Francisco, no Ricky Pierce saw Dejan Stribling out for the foreseeable future de Marcus Robinson on IR and Debo Samuel goes down in week five with a hamstring injury.
28:49
[SPEAKER_00]: He's expected to miss a couple of weeks with Debo Samuel out of the picture, Brandon Cooks actually led the receiving court in routes in the fourth quarter to close out that game against the Seattle Seahawks.
29:01
[SPEAKER_00]: He turns those seven routes into one target which resulted in a touchdown
29:09
[SPEAKER_00]: 33 years old, but he is probably going to run his fair share of routes in a Kyle Shanhand offense.
29:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we talked about Kendrick born earlier.
29:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Last year, I was personally like there was a stretch of the year where I was excited to start Kendrick born.
29:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And I believe that was the part of the year where Mac Jones was at quarterback.
29:28
[SPEAKER_00]: That's just as a testament to what Kyle Shanahan can get out of his offensive playmakers regardless of how talented they actually are.
29:37
[SPEAKER_00]: If you are someone that Kyle Shanahan just simply decides to get heavily involved in the offense, there can be fantasy value there.
29:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, Brock Perti,
29:47
[SPEAKER_00]: is playing sensational football.
29:48
[SPEAKER_00]: This is one of the best offenses in the game.
29:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And they will get a favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders in week six.
29:55
[SPEAKER_00]: We saw them picked apart last week by James Winston and the New York Giants.
29:59
[SPEAKER_00]: So we can see the 49ers offense rolling once again.
30:03
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to gamble on Brandon Cook's being a featured part of that offense, drawing his fair share of targets and taking advantage of the numerous red zone drives that I expect the 49ers to have, I would prefer taking the risk in gambling on Brandon Cook's and the 49ers offense over Darious Cooper or F.D.
30:21
[SPEAKER_00]: and Chism.
30:22
[SPEAKER_00]: we're going to quickly move through the tight end section to close things out here today.
30:27
[SPEAKER_00]: There are some viable streaming options in my opinion, but no one who is really jumping off the page as like a must add like someone who
30:37
[SPEAKER_00]: is going to be a long-term starter for you, but among those streamers, Pat Freymuth does emerge as someone that you can definitely get to.
30:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Freymuth this year has seen a nice blend of volume and red zone usage, the volume gives him some sort of a floor and the consistent role in the red zone gives him access to a reasonable ceiling.
30:57
[SPEAKER_00]: He has seen five plus targets in four of five games this year and he has seen five targets in the red zone so far this year.
31:03
[SPEAKER_00]: and three in the end zone that has resulted in him popping up for a touchdown in three of five games as well as two last week against the cults.
31:13
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not great like you're you're not running to the podium to get this waiver claim in and get fire move on your roster, but there is enough there.
31:21
[SPEAKER_00]: We have talked at length about this Pittsburgh Steelers passing game ton of volume there and with fire move playing a consistent role and seeming to be a featured weapon in the red area
31:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's enough there against the buck and years this week.
31:34
[SPEAKER_00]: They have allowed at least 10 PPR points to three tight ends this year.
31:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So he could have a nice day.
31:41
[SPEAKER_00]: It would be no surprise if he is like kind of taking a back seat.
31:45
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't find the end zone, but the usage has been there.
31:48
[SPEAKER_00]: It has been a fantasy-friendly role enough for you to start considering friomuth as a spot starter.
31:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that doesn't really change looking ahead to week six.
31:58
[SPEAKER_00]: The other two trending names that I'm going to hit on here are Brent and Strange and Tyler.
32:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Higby Strange shows up for eight targets in each of the last two weeks.
32:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I think in week four that can be pretty easily explained away by the simple fact that the bangles have remained a sieve to opposing tight ends.
32:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if you're going to beat the bangles defense, tarding your tight ends a ton is a very good way to go up.
32:21
[SPEAKER_00]: about it.
32:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I think generally my perception of Bretton strange really hasn't changed over these last two weeks even though he has shown up for a nice number of targets and strong fantasy production.
32:34
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a guy who can just go in and out.
32:37
[SPEAKER_00]: It really depends on the week to week flow of the game, the game plan, all that stuff.
32:42
[SPEAKER_00]: We have seen that show up in the box scores as well.
32:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Two targets in week two, three targets in week one, then suddenly shows up for eight in each of the last two weeks.
32:50
[SPEAKER_00]: If you pick up Brent and Strange, and he shows up for two targets, two catches and 20 yards,
32:57
[SPEAKER_00]: in week six, it would be disappointing, but it would be no surprise.
33:00
[SPEAKER_00]: After this last like two week run, I am not changing my thoughts on Brent and Strange.
33:05
[SPEAKER_00]: He is an inconsistent target earner, someone who I am not penciling in for five plus targets each and every week.
33:11
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that he is a shoe and starter, but given the volume that we have seen as of late, I think that you could get to Brent and Strange this week, while understanding that the range of outcomes is quite wide, there's real volatility here.
33:27
[SPEAKER_00]: kind of similar, it is Tyler Higby.
33:29
[SPEAKER_00]: He has taken advantage of an injury to Terrence Ferguson over the last couple of weeks.
33:34
[SPEAKER_00]: You see him show up for double digit fantasy points in three straight weeks.
33:38
[SPEAKER_00]: There was some concern about the return of Colby Parkinson, limiting Higby's role in week five.
33:45
[SPEAKER_00]: He does return, does Parkinson.
33:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And we see Higby's role take something of a step back 64% of the routes against the bills in that Monday night football shootout.
33:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Still in an offense like the Rams that is going to be putting together scoring drives quite often 64% of the routes can be enough and we see them draw five targets turn that into 83 receiving arts and looking ahead against the Arizona Cardinals this is another game that is expected to be a shootout a game total well over 50 points so if you just want to prey on
34:16
[SPEAKER_00]: past volume, being there or the ramps, hoping that Higby can continue to earn 5, 6, 7 targets in any even week and then maybe he finds the end zone in a game that should have plenty of points scored.
34:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's enough there.
34:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll have him ranked as a mid-range Titan 2 on the week.
34:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Nothing super exciting but you can tell yourself the story.
34:36
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, we will quickly close things out here with a couple of drops.
34:40
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll ship Lee no doubt about it.
34:42
[SPEAKER_00]: You are dropping him.
34:43
[SPEAKER_00]: He's expected to miss a couple of weeks with some sort of foot injury.
34:46
[SPEAKER_00]: He was like a torn plant or fascia or something like that.
34:49
[SPEAKER_00]: You can drop him.
34:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Keaton Mitchell is someone who I had been advocating for as a pickup.
34:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Each of the last few weeks, but man.
34:57
[SPEAKER_00]: As this chargers offense continues to take blows, injuries left and right, tray Harris, Quint Johnson, lad McConkey, the offensive line is entirely unrecognizable.
35:07
[SPEAKER_00]: It's getting tougher to roster keyed Mitchell.
35:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Once he hits his buy, he will definitely be a buy-week casualty.
35:13
[SPEAKER_00]: But I would not fault you for dropping keyed Mitchell at this point.
35:17
[SPEAKER_00]: The usage is still there to some degree he has some level of a receiving driven floor.
35:24
[SPEAKER_00]: but given the state of this offense, it is becoming tougher and tougher by the week to roster keep Mitchell.
35:30
[SPEAKER_00]: If you are in a crunch, I think that dropping him is reasonable.
35:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Other than him, there aren't too many names that really stand out here.
35:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Chris Rodriguez is quite clearly a reasonable drop.
35:41
[SPEAKER_00]: He is still getting some sort of usage in the red zone in goal to go situations, but he handles just two carries in this past game.
35:50
[SPEAKER_00]: It is quite clearly moving towards
35:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that there is any real reason to hold Chris Rodriguez anymore outside of some stories of contingent value, but other than that here you see on these trending drops, a lot of them are the priority handcuffs.
36:07
[SPEAKER_00]: It's guys like Ryan Robinson, Tyler, Aljir, Katelyn Black.
36:11
[SPEAKER_00]: I know at this point in the year with buys and injury starting to stack up.
36:15
[SPEAKER_00]: These are the first guys who seem to be expendable.
36:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Personally, I would advocate holding onto them because each of those three guys, if the starter goes down, their role does become quite valuable.
36:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would be trying to hold on them specifically, Kaelan Black.
36:30
[SPEAKER_00]: We know how good this 49ers offense is.
36:33
[SPEAKER_00]: If Chris McCaffrey does miss any time such a nice role in such a strong offense.
36:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you can avoid it, I would understand dropping these guys, but if you can avoid it, I would try not to.
36:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Moving over to the wide receivers here, we do have some injury driven drops.
36:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Roman Wilson, yeah, you can give up on him.
36:50
[SPEAKER_00]: He is expected to miss a couple of weeks.
36:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Same story with Tray Harris, his value and his intrigue and fantasy football was largely driven by the short-term injuries to lad Maconkey and Quint Johnston, then Harris gets banged up on his own.
37:05
[SPEAKER_00]: We talked about Tyreq Hill a couple of weeks ago, not only are there the concerns with the injury and the health stuff, but now there is a whole legal situation to deal with.
37:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to try and speculate on or evaluate that.
37:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I was advising people to only spend a couple of dollars in fab on him.
37:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully that was the case because if you only spent a few bucks, you can easily drop him and at this point with no real update or news on him joining any team in particular.
37:33
[SPEAKER_00]: If you remember the initial reporting that he was going to potentially sign within a matter of days with no update on that, I'm becoming more and more pessimistic that anything happened.
37:43
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that dropping him would be entirely reasonable, Portland, Sutton, and Quentin Johnston.
37:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Two similar situations, both of them have been in offences that are entirely underperforming this year, and individually, they have looked horrific.
37:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that both of them are very much droppable in 10 team leagues, as well as 12 team leagues with shallow benches.
38:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see any real reason to keep sticking with these guys.
38:09
[SPEAKER_00]: given that we see them underperform weekend and we got I mean you see Corlan Sutton here hasn't hit 10 PPR points in a single game this year.
38:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Awesome way to spend a mid-round pick.
38:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Tight ends usually it's a pretty straightforward situation.
38:23
[SPEAKER_00]: The only player that I will really note is that I would continue to prefer to hold on to Kenyan City.
38:29
[SPEAKER_00]: He's
38:29
[SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't get a full game in week five.
38:32
[SPEAKER_00]: He goes down with a concussion.
38:33
[SPEAKER_00]: He's in the protocol.
38:34
[SPEAKER_00]: He's a toss-up, two-miss week six as well.
38:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Still, this remained a wait and see situation.
38:40
[SPEAKER_00]: That is what I've been talking about.
38:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Week in and week out with Kenny on City.
38:43
[SPEAKER_00]: He was not a set-it and forget-it tight-end one starter after that breakout performance against the Detroit Lions.
38:50
[SPEAKER_00]: That is how I'm still viewing him.
38:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to see more if I have room on my roster.
38:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Like I get it, if you have to drop 10-ion City, but if I have room on my roster, this is a talent, a player that I want to hold onto and just see how things work out for another couple of weeks, because you see there are some favorable matchups coming up in the Dolphins and in the Raiders, the Patriot's defense has looked attackable at moments too, but we'll see if City is able to go in that one.
39:15
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, guys, that is going to do it for me here today.
39:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Hope you all enjoyed, again, really, really gross week on the way of a wire, but definitely some interesting names out there, some guys that you can stash, some guys that you could consider getting into your lineup right away because I know lineups are getting really, really gross.
39:34
[SPEAKER_00]: So hopefully this helps, hope you all are on to week six in a good spot to make the playoffs and you can pick up some wins moving forward.
39:43
[SPEAKER_00]: That'll be it for me here today.
39:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I will see you all next time.