Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Cash or Crypto?💰Technical Analysis w/ @investingbroz

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Cash or Crypto?💰Technical Analysis w/ @investingbroz · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:07
Speaker 1: A lot is cooking in the market. Today we're going
0:09
Speaker 1: to be breaking it down for you as bitcoin starts
0:12
Speaker 1: to stabilize or does it. My name is Paul Barren.
0:15
Speaker 1: Welcome back in the tech path. We're going to get
0:17
Speaker 1: a trader in today. You know him, of course, that's
0:18
Speaker 1: Tim Warning he's going to be joining us. We'll break
0:20
Speaker 1: down a lot of tokens including bitcoin, ethereum and many
0:23
Speaker 1: more that I know everybody's wondering where the market's going
0:26
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0:27
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0:30
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0:47
Speaker 1: to use is our link down down below to get
0:50
Speaker 1: started and jump into it. Joining us today, of course,
0:53
Speaker 1: is mister Tim Warren. And if you guys have not
0:55
Speaker 1: been over to his YouTube channel, you guys will know
0:58
Speaker 1: him as Investing Bros. Check it out right there, forty
1:02
Speaker 1: five zero point two thousand subscribers. We can move the needle, man.
1:06
Speaker 1: We moved them.
1:07
Speaker 2: Getting there, I like almost a fifty, almost a fifty,
1:11
Speaker 2: and then we're gonna keep going.
1:11
Speaker 1: So Tim does a great job, does some great live shows.
1:15
Speaker 1: He's one of the lives that I watch from time
1:17
Speaker 1: to time. So Tim, good to see you.
1:19
Speaker 3: Man.
1:19
Speaker 1: How's things going besides the.
1:21
Speaker 4: Market going nuts?
1:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know, we're gonna get into that. We're
1:25
Speaker 2: gonna get into the chaos here. We lost some support
1:28
Speaker 2: that I thought would hold. But I think I was
1:30
Speaker 2: on the show last week we did reference and say, hey,
1:33
Speaker 2: if this support's lost, this is gonna be the next
1:35
Speaker 2: range to look at. So we're gonna take a look
1:37
Speaker 2: at that today. I know a lot of people are
1:39
Speaker 2: freaking out, and I get it. I fully understand. But
1:43
Speaker 2: there's a lot of things right now that I want.
1:45
Speaker 4: To encourage people.
1:46
Speaker 2: This, this market is different than we've ever seen before. However,
1:49
Speaker 2: at the same time, if people are thinking this is
1:52
Speaker 2: the beginning of the bear market, I'm not. I cannot
1:55
Speaker 2: tell you it's not. But at the same time, there
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Speaker 2: are so many things that have not happened that traditionally
2:01
Speaker 2: happened both in the crypto and stock market bullmarket tops.
2:05
Speaker 2: So this to me has still that feeling of like
2:08
Speaker 2: that last large wave to weed out all the paper
2:12
Speaker 2: hands before we take off again. The question is how
2:14
Speaker 2: painful can it get? That's what we got to talk exactly.
2:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to dive into it. Of course, first
2:19
Speaker 1: thing I want to hit on is the House narrowly
2:21
Speaker 1: adopted the budget plan to advance Trump's Agenda four, really
2:26
Speaker 1: in a win for Speaker Johnson. And of course all
2:28
Speaker 1: of this goes into some pretty significant things that are
2:31
Speaker 1: happening within the House right now. Of course this has
2:34
Speaker 1: to go through the Senate likelihood, whether or not it does,
2:37
Speaker 1: we'll see, but it's going to have some impact on
2:39
Speaker 1: crypto in general. I do want to take a look
2:42
Speaker 1: at a clip real quick. This will explain a little
2:44
Speaker 1: bit more. Take a look.
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Speaker 3: Anyone making eighty thousand, a family of four would see
2:49
Speaker 3: a seventeen hundred dollars increase in taxes. Ninety one percent
2:53
Speaker 3: of Americans would get a tax hike. And then you're
2:56
Speaker 3: also talking about corporate rates going back up. So just
3:01
Speaker 3: continuously say that it's billionaires that are benefiting is totally false.
3:07
Speaker 3: It's totally disingenuous.
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Speaker 5: We can, in my view, if you want to preserve
3:11
Speaker 5: the breaks for the middle class and the working class
3:15
Speaker 5: and work with the Democrats on doing that, there would
3:18
Speaker 5: be an openness to it. But at this point where
3:20
Speaker 5: working class Americans are struggling, where ninety percent of the
3:24
Speaker 5: stock market is owned by ten percent of Americans, I
3:27
Speaker 5: just don't think we need more breaks tax breaks for
3:31
Speaker 5: the very wealthy.
3:34
Speaker 1: And when you look at Trump's tax proposal right now,
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Speaker 1: the richest five percent will be getting the most and
3:40
Speaker 1: the deepest cuts, as we show in this chart right here,
3:42
Speaker 1: you can kind of see it. Let me kind of
3:43
Speaker 1: zoom in on that for that, so I see a
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Speaker 1: lot of people would not fall into those categories versus say,
3:51
Speaker 1: probably around the middle to maybe the fourth or fifth,
3:54
Speaker 1: but most likely that range right there, which is actually
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Speaker 1: getting the largest tax increase over all. So not a
4:01
Speaker 1: good layer. And definitely a lot of other hidden time
4:05
Speaker 1: bombs that are in this tax bill.
4:07
Speaker 4: Now.
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Speaker 1: Granted, it's going to put a lot of tax cuts
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Speaker 1: for other things like overtime and social security and tips
4:13
Speaker 1: and those kind of things. Yes, that will have some
4:16
Speaker 1: benefit to the market, but overall, I just don't think
4:19
Speaker 1: it's going to be a big one. They are talking
4:21
Speaker 1: about medicaid and Snap being hit. This could really be
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Speaker 1: a big problem for Trump. And if it's a problem
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Speaker 1: for Trump, it starts to flow into I think the
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Speaker 1: digital asset market and of course securities going forward. So
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Speaker 1: it's going to be a big one. Before we go
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Speaker 1: into the bitcoin chart, Tim, I want you to listen
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Speaker 1: one more clip, and this is JP Morgan talking about
4:43
Speaker 1: their strategy and they don't want to compare that to
4:45
Speaker 1: what you're thinking.
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Speaker 3: So let's take a look the Chenzo ahead of the
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Speaker 3: Global Investment Opportunities Group at JP Morgan. Risk on for
4:52
Speaker 3: two years, you've done well.
4:55
Speaker 6: Many of my clients still have too much cash. So
4:57
Speaker 6: for those people this is great. But there are also
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Speaker 6: people who probably have a little too much risk on.
5:02
Speaker 6: They owned a lot of tech. They did really well,
5:04
Speaker 6: there haven't been exits. They need to think about rebalancing
5:07
Speaker 6: and just making sure your portfolio is ready for a
5:09
Speaker 6: different volatility environment. You never want to completely obviously sell
5:13
Speaker 6: down and do you risk your entire portfolio if you
5:15
Speaker 6: did that. During COVID, for example, you saw how quickly
5:17
Speaker 6: things can turn around.
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Speaker 3: Better than fifty percent that in the next six months
5:22
Speaker 3: we get a ten percent pull back.
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Speaker 6: Oh, I think so. And by the way, I'd be
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Speaker 6: okay with that because I think that would be healthy.
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Speaker 3: But let's say I did have some tech I'm uncomfortable,
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Speaker 3: So what sell half go? Where?
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Speaker 4: What do I do?
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Speaker 6: The answer may be sell none. But if you have
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Speaker 6: a lot of cash, do you buy some fixed income
5:40
Speaker 6: and bonds to balance that? Do you look at uncorrelated assets, infrastructure,
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Speaker 6: real assets, gold, or again looking at assets that would
5:48
Speaker 6: perform well in an inflationary.
5:49
Speaker 1: Environment, assets that will perform well in an inflationary environment.
5:54
Speaker 1: You got garetsol Away pointing to the number that I
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Speaker 1: think you're pointing to, and that that is maybe around
6:02
Speaker 1: seventy five K. So let's take a look at your chart. Tim,
6:05
Speaker 1: explain to me as your bitcoin thesis.
6:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I will start by saying seventy five K.
6:12
Speaker 2: And I was explaining a little bit before we started
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Speaker 2: corning here. I think the seventy five K, if it
6:17
Speaker 2: gets hit, we're actually going lower. And I think that
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Speaker 2: what Garrett said there he said seventy five to seventy four.
6:22
Speaker 2: I actually think it would go lower than that if
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Speaker 2: seventy four thousand gets hit. And for that, let me
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Speaker 2: go and share my chart and we'll take a look
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Speaker 2: at what I'm watching. Like I said, I was on
6:32
Speaker 2: the show last week, we were still above ninety k.
6:34
Speaker 2: That was strong support you saw there in Garrett's tweet,
6:36
Speaker 2: he talked about it as well. We lost it though, right,
6:38
Speaker 2: So it's you don't cry or spuild milk.
6:41
Speaker 4: You look forward. You gotta understand, Hey, what is next?
6:44
Speaker 4: What is coming?
6:44
Speaker 2: And there's this red box that I'm watching right now,
6:47
Speaker 2: and it's called a gap in the fixed range volume profile.
6:50
Speaker 2: And I'm gonna show you a couple different indicators here
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Speaker 2: that tell me where I think the price really could
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Speaker 2: get to and where it should and then if that
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Speaker 2: gets lost, what's gonna happen? But starting with exchange volume profile,
7:01
Speaker 2: I'm gonna use this tool. I'm gonna go back to
7:02
Speaker 2: the highs of March in twenty twenty four to where
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Speaker 2: we are right now, and with this tool tells us
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Speaker 2: instead of the volume on the bottom right. So if
7:11
Speaker 2: you ever see technical analysts using volume the bottom, this
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Speaker 2: tells you what days, what time there was the highest
7:17
Speaker 2: amount of buying and selling. This chart tells us what
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Speaker 2: prices had the most amount of buying and selling, and
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Speaker 2: historically the greatest levels of reversals can actually happen in gaps,
7:28
Speaker 2: not at the peaks. A lot of people like to
7:30
Speaker 2: pay attention to point of control, value area high, value
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Speaker 2: area low, and these are important to know where the
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Speaker 2: most amount of buying and selling has happened. But a
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Speaker 2: lot of times when you go back to the history
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Speaker 2: of this indicator, it's the gaps that have the best
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Speaker 2: buying pressure for whales, for institutions, and that's the market
7:45
Speaker 2: we're in right now. They're going to be the ones
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Speaker 2: to buy. Retail is not going to turn this bull
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Speaker 2: market around. It's going to be whales and institutions deciding
7:52
Speaker 2: good enough, let's buy in bulk and then we'll regroup.
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Speaker 2: So the price i'm watching here on the high end
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Speaker 2: we just touched this morning, eighty five five hundred is
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Speaker 2: the top range. We're close to that even right now
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Speaker 2: as we're recording this video. The bottom range here, remember
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Speaker 2: this number around seventy seven thousand sor sorry, seventy seven
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Speaker 2: thousand and three hundred. Okay, remember that because this is
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Speaker 2: gonna come up with some other indicators as well. Mainly,
8:16
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna take a look at here is the
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Speaker 2: weekly chart, and I'm gonna take a look at what
8:20
Speaker 2: we have right now. We had barished divergence come in.
8:22
Speaker 2: We had a cell signal on the lux Ago oscillator.
8:25
Speaker 2: This is one of my favorite trading tools out there,
8:27
Speaker 2: red reversal, barish momentum. And then what happened this week
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Speaker 2: is we confirmed negative money flow, so we now officially
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Speaker 2: have our confirmed cell signal on the weekly chart. I
8:38
Speaker 2: like to trade these down to the smart trail on
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Speaker 2: Luxe augu and you can see here it's overlapping the
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Speaker 2: high end up here at eighty two eight, the low
8:46
Speaker 2: end down here at seventy six four. But of course
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Speaker 2: we have that crossover right in here with these spaces
8:53
Speaker 2: as well. And there was one more thing I wanted
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Speaker 2: to take a look at here. Oh yeah, yeah, it's
8:58
Speaker 2: gonna be the c ME gap. Here we go a
9:01
Speaker 2: different chart, but this is something we've been watching for
9:04
Speaker 2: a while. Remember way way back here in November with
9:08
Speaker 2: the closed a week on on the fourth, the markets closed.
9:12
Speaker 2: We then had the markets reopened on the eleventh, but
9:15
Speaker 2: we closed on the on the fourth.
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Speaker 4: We see, make sure there's a.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, the fourth we had it come up here to
9:20
Speaker 2: seventy seven to seven or seventy seven to six, and
9:23
Speaker 2: then we reopened around eighty one thousand. That's what we
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Speaker 2: call a CME gap. So when you take a look
9:28
Speaker 2: at that CMME gap and you see that price level
9:30
Speaker 2: overlapping with these other two major levels of support, that
9:35
Speaker 2: range kind of looking somewhere around eighty one just out there,
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Speaker 2: eighty two thousand, and then again seventy seven to three,
9:40
Speaker 2: that's gonna be a spot that I think is very realistic.
9:43
Speaker 2: Now the question becomes, as Garris said, and I think
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Speaker 2: a lot of retail investors are pointing out, they keep
9:47
Speaker 2: talking about seventy five thousand, right, seventy five thousand, that's
9:51
Speaker 2: almost at the peak we had back in March, but
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Speaker 2: not quite there. I predict Paul that this should be
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Speaker 2: a very strong bottom position around seventy seven thous But
10:00
Speaker 2: if we lose that, and if we fall to seventy
10:02
Speaker 2: five thousand, I believe the riding on the wall would
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Speaker 2: say we're not stopping at seventy five. That's where retail
10:07
Speaker 2: will think we go. We know that things usually drop
10:09
Speaker 2: a little bit lower than there. If you go to
10:11
Speaker 2: the two week chart. I'm gonna be watching the zone.
10:13
Speaker 2: I mean, it's close to around seventy three, but we
10:15
Speaker 2: could honestly make our ways down into the sixties once again,
10:19
Speaker 2: back down to former resistance levels we had throughout the
10:22
Speaker 2: summer of twenty twenty four. Not predicting that for certain,
10:25
Speaker 2: but those are the levels and the probabilities that I'm watching.
10:28
Speaker 2: I see very little reason that we would go to
10:31
Speaker 2: seventy five thousand on the dot and stop there. If
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Speaker 2: we lose seventy seven, more than likely we're coming down
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Speaker 2: sub seventy k in the next couple of weeks and months.
10:40
Speaker 2: The good news is, I'll just want to before I
10:43
Speaker 2: go with this one. The good news is is that
10:45
Speaker 2: this would still be putting in a higher low on bitcoin.
10:48
Speaker 2: When you zoom out here and you turn off the noise,
10:50
Speaker 2: you can see Bitcoin still putting in these higher highs
10:53
Speaker 2: and higher lows. Something that I'm sure you've talked about
10:55
Speaker 2: with your audience is the Fearing Greed Index. Today we
10:58
Speaker 2: are ticking in at twenty one on the fear in
11:01
Speaker 2: Green Index. The last time we saw fear of this magnitude,
11:05
Speaker 2: you have to go back here to August and I've
11:07
Speaker 2: got to go to a daily chart here August eighth
11:10
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty four. August eighth, if you guys don't remember,
11:13
Speaker 2: was back when we had that really scary drop in
11:16
Speaker 2: price action because we thought that the Asian markets were collapsing.
11:19
Speaker 4: Again.
11:20
Speaker 2: We're talking about around fifty thousand dollars. This is when
11:22
Speaker 2: we came down to forty nine. We had the same
11:25
Speaker 2: fear today at eighty five thousand dollars that we had
11:28
Speaker 2: back here when it was at fifty thousand dollars.
11:31
Speaker 4: This is still a.
11:31
Speaker 2: Massive bullish look for the long term future bitcoin, but
11:35
Speaker 2: in the short term I don't think that this fall
11:37
Speaker 2: and this collapse is quite done yet.
11:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So and you look at the ETF
11:43
Speaker 1: outflows right now. This is one of the largest sections.
11:46
Speaker 1: I'll zoom in on this, so just a little bit
11:48
Speaker 1: to give you guys on insight there. This is more.
11:51
Speaker 1: This is on the one year so we haven't seen
11:53
Speaker 1: bitcoin ETF outflows at this level. So to your point,
11:57
Speaker 1: this could be just the beginning as institutional apitol starts
12:00
Speaker 1: to move away, private capital starting to take a look
12:03
Speaker 1: at elsewhere. Do you think that we're going to be
12:06
Speaker 1: in a position where bitcoin gets into either a bounce
12:11
Speaker 1: or some sideways action if it goes under eighty, do
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Speaker 1: you think we'll reverse back up for a little bit
12:16
Speaker 1: or are you feeling like this would be a pretty
12:18
Speaker 1: significant fall.
12:21
Speaker 4: I'll tell you this, Paul.
12:21
Speaker 2: If we drop and we stagnate down low and we
12:25
Speaker 2: start to build a lower time frame, I know we
12:27
Speaker 2: did it technically in twenty twenty one. I'll share my
12:29
Speaker 2: screen again. We technically did do this back in twenty
12:32
Speaker 2: twenty one. People will remember if you were invested at
12:35
Speaker 2: the time, this was the Elon crash, right, Elon sells crypto,
12:39
Speaker 2: and we actually ended up spending a good amount of
12:41
Speaker 2: time down. I would say historically, though, if you're in
12:45
Speaker 2: a bull market and you get this type of a drop,
12:47
Speaker 2: you're not feeling good. If you're consolidating after a big drop.
12:51
Speaker 2: What you want to see is something like what we
12:53
Speaker 2: had back here during all season in twenty twenty one,
12:55
Speaker 2: where we did have a thirty percent very quick drop
12:58
Speaker 2: on bitcoin, but then it immediately sprung back.
13:01
Speaker 4: To the upside.
13:02
Speaker 2: Of course, you go back in history, you saw the
13:04
Speaker 2: COVID dip, came down, crash sprung back up. You go
13:07
Speaker 2: back to previous big drops in bitcoin price section. Look
13:11
Speaker 2: at all of these drops during bull markets. They happen
13:13
Speaker 2: very fast, and they spring right back up, even though
13:17
Speaker 2: we have an example in twenty twenty one where we
13:19
Speaker 2: did consolidate and then continue to the upside. I would say,
13:22
Speaker 2: what we're really wanting to see if you want to
13:23
Speaker 2: remain bullish, if you start to see Bitcoin come down
13:26
Speaker 2: towards these levels I'm talking about and then chop down
13:29
Speaker 2: here for weeks. I'm not saying it's impossible to rally.
13:32
Speaker 2: I'm saying but that's the likelihood of probably a distribution phase,
13:36
Speaker 2: and that's another trigger to go lower. The reality is
13:38
Speaker 2: what I would say is I wouldn't be surprised we
13:40
Speaker 2: chop right in here for a little bit and then
13:42
Speaker 2: make this drop later with a spring that comes right
13:44
Speaker 2: back after as institutions and whales decide, yep, that was
13:48
Speaker 2: our price level we've been looking for. We're buying in
13:50
Speaker 2: bulk and paper hands are gone. Now it's time to
13:52
Speaker 2: take off. If we don't see that, if we see
13:55
Speaker 2: a lingering down here, I'm not saying so because I'm
13:59
Speaker 2: a hover long, but I would tell you odds are
14:02
Speaker 2: we're probably gonna get a move to the downside shortly after.
14:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, so lot to unwrap here, because this
14:08
Speaker 1: is getting into some other assets out there. Ethereum, of course,
14:11
Speaker 1: is one we'll take a look at. Senator Delamas, of course,
14:14
Speaker 1: has a huge Digital Asset Subcommittee hearing today. It's gonna
14:18
Speaker 1: be happening I think around two thirty so here in
14:20
Speaker 1: just about an hour from time we're filming this, So
14:23
Speaker 1: be on the lookout for that. It will have some
14:25
Speaker 1: impact I think on ethereum in general.
14:27
Speaker 4: What about Ether where.
14:28
Speaker 1: It's setting right now? If Bitcoin does fall below eighty,
14:32
Speaker 1: where does eth go?
14:35
Speaker 4: It's gonna be a good question.
14:36
Speaker 2: Ethereum is definitely more oversold than Bitcoin is at the moment.
14:40
Speaker 2: But let's pretend we did just as Let's just.
14:43
Speaker 4: Do a one to one.
14:44
Speaker 2: Let's pretend Bitcoin Ethereum just lockstep, which we know probably
14:48
Speaker 2: won't happen, but let's pretend they did. Bitcoin, if I'm
14:51
Speaker 2: right here, is gonna fall another nine percent. So what
14:54
Speaker 2: would be another nine percent down for ethereum. We'll even
14:57
Speaker 2: do what a two x is, you know, because ethereum
14:59
Speaker 2: can do that nine percent drop for ethereum from here
15:01
Speaker 2: and out would put us in the camp of roughly
15:04
Speaker 2: twenty one hundred. If we went to eighteen percent, which
15:06
Speaker 2: I wouldn't see is dropping much past there. We're looking
15:08
Speaker 2: about eighteen hundred, right, so somewhere between twenty one and
15:12
Speaker 2: eighteen hundred for ethereum would be matching that move on bitcoin.
15:15
Speaker 2: If bitcoin went lower, like I said, if bitcoin made
15:18
Speaker 2: a move, say down here towards sixty four sixty five,
15:21
Speaker 2: we're talking about twenty.
15:22
Speaker 4: Percent move to downside.
15:23
Speaker 2: Now, all of a sudden, ethereum, you're probably looking if
15:26
Speaker 2: I can come back over here, there we go twenty
15:28
Speaker 2: percent to forty percent from down here, twenty percent again,
15:31
Speaker 2: eighteen hundred, forty percent, all of a sudden, we're taking
15:33
Speaker 2: a look around thirteen hundred. That's not a good look
15:37
Speaker 2: for a theorem. I would say that would be a
15:38
Speaker 2: massive problem for ethereum. Overwhelmingly, ethereum has been still putting
15:42
Speaker 2: in higher highs and higher lows. We're sitting on a
15:44
Speaker 2: pretty important shelf right here, just north of two thousand,
15:48
Speaker 2: which is the last consolidation period here. But I would
15:51
Speaker 2: say that's going to be a big line for me.
15:54
Speaker 2: Fifteen hundred. We got to stay above fifteen hundred to
15:57
Speaker 2: stay healthy, I would say for this bull market. Otherwise
15:59
Speaker 2: we could enter into a mini bear market, have a
16:02
Speaker 2: prolonged downward price action. I would still be buying. I
16:05
Speaker 2: still be holding long term because I believe in ethereum.
16:08
Speaker 2: But I wouldn't want to lie to you and say, hey, guys,
16:11
Speaker 2: brand new wal time highs by the summer if we
16:13
Speaker 2: lose fifteen.
16:13
Speaker 1: Hundred yeah, yeah, which is one that I think everybody's
16:16
Speaker 1: looking at. And I think Ethereum in general, they've got
16:19
Speaker 1: a lot, a lot of good things came out of
16:21
Speaker 1: eighth Denver. We've seen continuous development. Likelihood is we're going
16:26
Speaker 1: to continue to see more devs really start to perk
16:28
Speaker 1: into ethereum. And also remember we still have digital asset
16:33
Speaker 1: regulation that's most likely going to take place in the
16:35
Speaker 1: next three to six months. All of that not necessarily
16:38
Speaker 1: obviously not priced into the market. So even though we've
16:41
Speaker 1: been getting good registry coming out of the SEC, which
16:45
Speaker 1: is everybody dropping cases left and right, all these guys
16:49
Speaker 1: are pretty much off the hook. So it has opened
16:51
Speaker 1: up some opportunity. Let's talk about speaking of the SEC,
16:53
Speaker 1: we got to talk about ripple and ripple of course,
16:57
Speaker 1: institutional DeFi on XRP ledger. This is a big deal.
17:00
Speaker 1: Most likely it's going to cause some movement within the
17:03
Speaker 1: ecosystem of ripple when you look at the chart right
17:06
Speaker 1: now on XRP, because many people are saying, hey, maybe
17:10
Speaker 1: I should add to my bag of XRP under the
17:13
Speaker 1: three dollar range. What's your position right now on XRP.
17:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like XRP long term. Again, it's getting the
17:20
Speaker 2: same bleeding, although I will say it's actually probably holding
17:23
Speaker 2: up better than most of the rest of the space.
17:26
Speaker 4: But keep an eye on this right here.
17:27
Speaker 2: Again, I told you a lot of alt coins are
17:29
Speaker 2: more over extended than Bitcoin, even even XRP. Here coming
17:32
Speaker 2: down to a trend of support here yesterday. Can we
17:36
Speaker 2: continue to hold this around two dollars and five cents.
17:38
Speaker 2: We'll have to wait and see how that one works.
17:41
Speaker 2: But if this does continue to hold, that's a very
17:43
Speaker 2: bullish pattern in play, called a bull pennant that would
17:47
Speaker 2: again this is part of the argument for going over
17:49
Speaker 2: ten dollars that I would still use.
17:52
Speaker 4: You come here.
17:53
Speaker 2: This is going to put the price somewhere in the
17:54
Speaker 2: world of twelve dollars on XRP if that plays out.
17:58
Speaker 2: But again, this is a thing if we lose this
18:01
Speaker 2: green line all of a sudden, you're gonna have to
18:03
Speaker 2: start asking some questions. How far could XRP actually fall?
18:07
Speaker 2: And I think you're gonna start looking at Fibonacci levels
18:09
Speaker 2: a couple interesting spots one sixty five as the point
18:12
Speaker 2: three eight two. You can see we're sitting on the
18:13
Speaker 2: point two three six, but one sixty three is gonna
18:16
Speaker 2: be interesting one thirty four. And people aren't gonna want
18:18
Speaker 2: to hear this because this would be a very big
18:21
Speaker 2: pullback on XRP. It would be a fallback of seventy percent,
18:24
Speaker 2: but honestly, a golden pocket reversal back down to a
18:27
Speaker 2: dollar for XRP. It would be painful. People wouldn't like
18:31
Speaker 2: to hear it, but that still would put us in
18:33
Speaker 2: a bullish structure. It's very common for golden pockets to
18:36
Speaker 2: be pulled back down to It would just be a
18:38
Speaker 2: very different bullmarkt than normal. And again I'm not saying
18:42
Speaker 2: that that's going to happen, So hopefully no one walks
18:44
Speaker 2: away from here saying Tim just predicted XRPS pulling back
18:46
Speaker 2: to a dollar. What I'm doing is looking at the
18:49
Speaker 2: levels of superior support and saying these are the levels
18:52
Speaker 2: to keep an eye on if we start losing all
18:54
Speaker 2: these support levels.
18:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think with XRP two, you have to
18:59
Speaker 1: think about what's happening over the summer. You've got the
19:02
Speaker 1: XRP Vegas event, You've got the XRPL ev XRPL event
19:07
Speaker 1: which is coming up here. I think just a little bit.
19:10
Speaker 1: When is that? Let me go, look, yeah, June tenth,
19:13
Speaker 1: so leger APEX twenty twenty five. That's happening in Jude tenth.
19:17
Speaker 1: So not only that, but also the interesting thing will
19:21
Speaker 1: be whether or not XRP and Ripple get a play
19:24
Speaker 1: within the administration towards some sort of payment architecture, which
19:29
Speaker 1: still I'm looking for a bombshell coming out of Ripple
19:33
Speaker 1: this year as a regulatory alignment. So that's the thing
19:35
Speaker 1: I'm looking for. Other things I want to hit on
19:38
Speaker 1: is Avalanche. Avalanche right now on the front end of
19:43
Speaker 1: the potential of being selected as a stable coin provider
19:48
Speaker 1: for the state of Wyoming if this happens, and we
19:52
Speaker 1: just had Anthony and Apollo on our show just this week,
19:55
Speaker 1: if this happens, it was basically boiling down to two
19:58
Speaker 1: chains what it looked to be, which was Avalanche and Swie.
20:01
Speaker 1: We'll talk about both. But if Avalanche wins this and
20:05
Speaker 1: they get to go live with a stable coin at
20:08
Speaker 1: a state level, which could really start to trickle down
20:11
Speaker 1: into a lot of other scenarios for knowing that state,
20:14
Speaker 1: but many others. What would the Avax chart look like,
20:16
Speaker 1: because right now Avax has been bleeding some red Avax blood.
20:22
Speaker 4: It has.
20:22
Speaker 2: It's one of the few charts that I'm looking at
20:24
Speaker 2: that I love the fundamentals of the project, but I
20:27
Speaker 2: don't love the chart. This is what we have going
20:30
Speaker 2: on here, lower highs here in December of twenty four
20:34
Speaker 2: than we had in March. That's not a good sign.
20:36
Speaker 2: It's one of the few coins getting back down here
20:38
Speaker 2: to those August July levels, hovering down here towards twenty dollars.
20:42
Speaker 2: But this would be a good move for Avax.
20:46
Speaker 4: I wouldn't.
20:46
Speaker 2: I wouldn't try to like say, oh, if this happens
20:49
Speaker 2: for one state, all of a sudden, Avax is just
20:51
Speaker 2: in a skyrock at the upside.
20:52
Speaker 4: It's more like a test run.
20:54
Speaker 2: What we've seen happen with Avax is a very explosive
20:58
Speaker 2: bull run in October of t twenty three that kind
21:00
Speaker 2: of lasted till March. A lot of momentum happened here,
21:03
Speaker 2: and even though we had a movement to the upside,
21:06
Speaker 2: a loss of momentum. Something has to kick back into gear.
21:10
Speaker 2: For Avax, it's losing the battle to some of its
21:13
Speaker 2: other competitors in the real world asset space and in
21:16
Speaker 2: the layer one space. I mean, we're talking about Sui.
21:19
Speaker 2: Suie's massively out for me. Avax on the real world
21:21
Speaker 2: asset space chain like an ondoer, outperforming it pretty dramatically
21:24
Speaker 2: as well. So they need a big home run hit
21:28
Speaker 2: some levels that I would say keep an eye on again.
21:30
Speaker 2: Avax drastically over sold at the moment, clearly could come
21:34
Speaker 2: back down here towards seventeen ninety. But we start to
21:36
Speaker 2: make moves back to the upside. I just start taking
21:38
Speaker 2: a look at some of these tops we've had before,
21:40
Speaker 2: fifty five and sixty five dollars, previous tops in this cycle.
21:44
Speaker 2: Of course, all time high is still doable here, I
21:47
Speaker 2: told my audience, I used to predict that I thought
21:50
Speaker 2: Avax would have a low end of two hundred, maybe
21:53
Speaker 2: potentially a higher end of getting up towards four hundred.
21:56
Speaker 2: Now I'm kind of in the boat of I think
21:58
Speaker 2: if Avax has a good boom, don't be surprised to
22:01
Speaker 2: see the range be actually closer between one hundred to
22:03
Speaker 2: two hundred. So one hundred dollars I think is a
22:06
Speaker 2: pretty good safe, especially at things like this launch. One
22:09
Speaker 2: hundred dollars for Avax is something I'd keep an eye
22:11
Speaker 2: on again. Back towards the highs of twenty twenty one,
22:13
Speaker 2: I think a a two hundred dollars move for Avax
22:17
Speaker 2: that would be a big actual from here, pretty big
22:19
Speaker 2: move to the upside. We're talking about getting back towards
22:22
Speaker 2: a nine almost ten x here. Yeah, that to me
22:25
Speaker 2: is the realistic expectation on the high end of what
22:28
Speaker 2: Avax can do.
22:29
Speaker 4: I would love to be wrong, Paul.
22:30
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a we're getting into a speculation
22:32
Speaker 2: on the fundamental side. I would love for that market
22:34
Speaker 2: cap to be able to get into the two hundred
22:36
Speaker 2: billion three hundred billion range. I just have a feeling
22:39
Speaker 2: it's going to be more like seventy five billion to
22:42
Speaker 2: maybe a little over one hundred billion.
22:43
Speaker 4: In market cap.
22:44
Speaker 1: Well, and you know, with Avalanche, you've got off the grid.
22:47
Speaker 1: They're plan to really kind of roll out on web three.
22:49
Speaker 1: The cool thing within this article there was a note
22:52
Speaker 1: down here that was interesting is the integration of Gunzella
22:57
Speaker 1: into open s. If that happens, I'm going to zoom
22:59
Speaker 1: in on that. If that happens, then that changes the
23:02
Speaker 1: game quickly of Web three. With NFTs that are playable
23:06
Speaker 1: in the game and being able to trade them on
23:08
Speaker 1: the open market like an open sea, that would really
23:10
Speaker 1: start to kind of set the tone for the gaming
23:13
Speaker 1: community kind of to move forward pretty aggressively, and Avalanche
23:17
Speaker 1: being maybe the leader on that. So that's one to
23:20
Speaker 1: watch for. All right, we got to get into suite.
23:24
Speaker 1: They had some interesting announcements this week, and just to
23:28
Speaker 1: be clear, Swee as a channel partner of ours. But
23:31
Speaker 1: you look at this right now, Walrus is I think
23:34
Speaker 1: going to have a pretty interesting play on how this
23:37
Speaker 1: technology is going to be used. We had their team
23:39
Speaker 1: on earlier talking about this.
23:41
Speaker 3: But it is.
23:42
Speaker 1: Available now for audio and video and basically it's like
23:47
Speaker 1: a new Zoom for blockchain but being able to stream.
23:51
Speaker 1: So I don't know where this is going, but Walwrack
23:54
Speaker 1: seems to be playing in the right direction and they're
23:57
Speaker 1: launching some very significant things. What is due to the
24:00
Speaker 1: chart right now on sweet because it did recover pretty
24:03
Speaker 1: quickly after hitting it around two thirty to forty.
24:07
Speaker 2: Yeah, we had a good little bounce yesterday. Let me
24:09
Speaker 2: go back to my chart here and take a look.
24:12
Speaker 2: We had a good little bounce on Sue yesterday. But
24:15
Speaker 2: what I'm gonna be watching for is potentially coming back
24:17
Speaker 2: down to the wick we had on February second. You
24:20
Speaker 2: can see we're trading right now in a falling broadening
24:23
Speaker 2: wedge that I thought that honestly, back here on February eighth,
24:26
Speaker 2: I thought we could have made a nice bounce to
24:28
Speaker 2: the upside here, but clearly we rejected once again on
24:31
Speaker 2: this trend line, we're making moves to the downside. We
24:34
Speaker 2: were very close to a by signal on the daily
24:36
Speaker 2: chart we're not getting again, it is close. We're building
24:38
Speaker 2: a bubble here with excessive sellers in the space. When
24:41
Speaker 2: they leave, we should make a move to the upside.
24:44
Speaker 2: But for now, with us not getting those bisignals and
24:46
Speaker 2: actually still seeing some negativity come in, you're gonna want
24:49
Speaker 2: to keep your eye in this range again. The wick
24:52
Speaker 2: from February second, the high from back in October of
24:55
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, That would be an interesting spot. It's
24:58
Speaker 2: going to put us close to that blue line here
25:00
Speaker 2: once again. I would keep an eye on two dollars
25:02
Speaker 2: and forty cents. Once that breaks to the upside, I think,
25:05
Speaker 2: you know, you start to take a big, big look
25:08
Speaker 2: to that. Let's look at FIBINOPA to take a big,
25:10
Speaker 2: big look to the upside. In a very mild case,
25:13
Speaker 2: we're talking about six dollars golden pocket extension nine dollars. Sui, though,
25:18
Speaker 2: is one I think easily could make its way towards
25:20
Speaker 2: twenty potentially even a fifty dollars with the bullish fundamentals
25:23
Speaker 2: that it has. I think the market cap could easily
25:26
Speaker 2: make its way over one hundred billion dollars. Again, I
25:29
Speaker 2: told you earlier with Avax, I think Suie's one that
25:31
Speaker 2: passes Avax, stays above Avax, has a considerably higher market cap,
25:35
Speaker 2: and that's why these higher price predictions are still possible.
25:39
Speaker 2: And every single day we dip just makes it a juicier,
25:41
Speaker 2: juicier option. We're talking about somewhere between a seven to
25:46
Speaker 2: eighteen X on your return on your investment here with Suie.
25:51
Speaker 2: So not a bad option whatsoever.
25:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. Gaming Summit coming up in March, so
25:56
Speaker 1: who knows what they're going to announce there, but you've
25:59
Speaker 1: got the Sweet play getting ready to go live, so
26:01
Speaker 1: you'll see a lot of that. And then they are
26:04
Speaker 1: live today over in eash Denver they're presenting Walrus, So
26:08
Speaker 1: this is all getting released during eighth Denver. And of
26:11
Speaker 1: course the connection that we've seen obviously with Salona and others.
26:16
Speaker 1: So lots of opportunity here for sure on Sweet. Let's
26:19
Speaker 1: go into a couple other things I want to hit
26:21
Speaker 1: on Unie Swap. Of course, case gets dropped, big news
26:25
Speaker 1: really for Unicewap. I mean I would think that absolutely
26:29
Speaker 1: just unhitches Unie Swap. Why do you think Uni swamp
26:32
Speaker 1: is kind of playing where it is right now?
26:36
Speaker 2: You know, it's very good news for Uni Swap. Uni
26:39
Speaker 2: Swamp is gonna do well. It's not necessarily changing anything
26:42
Speaker 2: right now. We had a decent little bounce yesterday a
26:44
Speaker 2: white candle, but we're not putting higher highs or higher lows.
26:48
Speaker 2: We're still sitting here in its own little downtrend. It
26:50
Speaker 2: seems like almost the entire crypto space is in some
26:53
Speaker 2: form of a downtrend, whether it's a falling channel where
26:56
Speaker 2: there's a wedge. You could draw it like that. You
26:58
Speaker 2: can kind of coming here and look at candle closes.
27:00
Speaker 2: That would be an interesting one to keep an eye
27:02
Speaker 2: on a wedge pattern right there. If we can keep
27:04
Speaker 2: holding the support that we bounced off of yesterday, this
27:07
Speaker 2: would get us a decent boost to the upside. The
27:12
Speaker 2: reality is you're kind of looking at this as your
27:14
Speaker 2: option and getting a price moved back up here towards
27:18
Speaker 2: twelve dollars. But there's always the chance to get to
27:21
Speaker 2: this line really should be more like this, and we're
27:23
Speaker 2: making our way a lot further down here, back towards
27:26
Speaker 2: six dollars almost for UNISWAP. I'll tell you what I'm
27:30
Speaker 2: telling my trading group here, Paul, I am buying dips
27:34
Speaker 2: on all coins that I like. I'm not leverage trading.
27:37
Speaker 2: The only leverage trading I'm doing now is Bitcoin. I'm
27:39
Speaker 2: doing some swing trades, some scalp trades.
27:41
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would.
27:42
Speaker 2: I'd be looking for some buying dips because what we're
27:45
Speaker 2: seeing from the news front. I'll go off my screen
27:46
Speaker 2: now because charts are the charts are ugly right now.
27:49
Speaker 4: It just is it is. We're still seeing the fundamental
27:53
Speaker 4: details of a long term bullish trajectory play out. The
27:57
Speaker 4: questions going to be are we a fit, are we
27:59
Speaker 4: coming to a local bar, and was this another massive
28:02
Speaker 4: scare in a bull market that starts the next big rally?
28:04
Speaker 4: Or are we entering into what I would call a
28:06
Speaker 4: mini bear market? If the bull market is over the
28:09
Speaker 4: if December top was the top of the bull market, well,
28:13
Speaker 4: guess what. That's the shortest crypto ballmark in the history
28:16
Speaker 4: of crypto, which would logically also expect this to have
28:20
Speaker 4: the shortest bear market. So if we do enter a
28:23
Speaker 4: bear market, I think the bear market will be over
28:25
Speaker 4: sometime mid at the latest late summer, and we restart
28:29
Speaker 4: the whole journey up, in which case I'd also tell people,
28:32
Speaker 4: you know, if you could have sold the December top
28:34
Speaker 4: or the January top, or if you did sell it
28:36
Speaker 4: anyone out there, good for you, good for picking those tops.
28:38
Speaker 2: But if you haven't sold yet and you're really down,
28:41
Speaker 2: I encourage you to think about the concept of saying,
28:43
Speaker 2: you know what, I wasn't in this for an overnight
28:46
Speaker 2: flip of the switch to make a million dollars overnight.
28:49
Speaker 2: I understand the long term fundamentals here. Hoddle On hoddle
28:53
Speaker 2: through the pain, keep going, because the worst thing that
28:55
Speaker 2: retail sorry, the worst thing that institutions and wales who
28:59
Speaker 2: are trying to manip the space can go against is
29:01
Speaker 2: a retail investor who says, let's go to zero. I'll
29:04
Speaker 2: willing to ride this bet to zero. You will not
29:07
Speaker 2: take that money. Those are the people that make it
29:09
Speaker 2: long term, the people that could pitch at these levels.
29:11
Speaker 2: A year from now, they're going to be slapping their
29:13
Speaker 2: head saying, why did I sell when I was down
29:16
Speaker 2: X percentage and I was so close to the bottom.
29:18
Speaker 2: If I just held on, I would be so much
29:21
Speaker 2: wealthy right now. I urge you to think like that
29:22
Speaker 2: right now.
29:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think the scenario is back to your
29:26
Speaker 1: point is the fundamentals on a lot of these projects,
29:29
Speaker 1: even though the charts have not been able to hold up.
29:31
Speaker 1: You look at some things that are happening within the
29:33
Speaker 1: polygon ecosystem. Ag Lair, of course, is launching, and that
29:38
Speaker 1: is happening during eth Denver, which could lead us to
29:41
Speaker 1: some things within a polygon that could move things around.
29:46
Speaker 1: If you think it. A Rome protocol now integrating to
29:49
Speaker 1: ag Lair, which is going to get more liquidity across
29:52
Speaker 1: the eth ecosystem. This is all very bullish. And if
29:55
Speaker 1: you look at the just the real world asset, Polygon
29:58
Speaker 1: still let me kind of zoom in on that. Polygons
30:00
Speaker 1: still twenty RWA counts right now, still one of the
30:04
Speaker 1: top well over aptos stellar. Only thing really that competes
30:08
Speaker 1: with it is z K sink and ethereum. So that
30:12
Speaker 1: in itself, when you look at the pole chart and
30:16
Speaker 1: we had you talking about Polygon last week, have you
30:19
Speaker 1: changed your mind? Have we been able to pitch this
30:22
Speaker 1: any better for you in terms of when you talk
30:24
Speaker 1: about fundamentals. I know that the tokenomics don't really measure up,
30:28
Speaker 1: but what about the fundamentals here?
30:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we talked about this last week. Fundamentally, I'm
30:35
Speaker 2: still concerned. I've never seen that chart you just put
30:38
Speaker 2: up there. So that's a great chart. I'll make a
30:43
Speaker 2: Devil's advocate case for people as to why it could
30:47
Speaker 2: be an interesting chart, and that is because it's the
30:49
Speaker 2: bloodiest chart out there. This is one of the cryptocurrencies
30:53
Speaker 2: that is sitting at an all time low. So it's
30:55
Speaker 2: one of those things. I know I'm looking at the
30:57
Speaker 2: matic chart, but again, the matic chart gives me the
30:58
Speaker 2: full history.
30:59
Speaker 4: The whole chart is very short.
31:01
Speaker 2: Yeah this, if this ends up working, it is the
31:07
Speaker 2: most oversouled, bloodiest crypto out there. It could have the
31:11
Speaker 2: largest bounce to the upside right now. If we just
31:14
Speaker 2: were to go back to all time highs. That would
31:17
Speaker 2: take an eleven x almost just to get to former
31:20
Speaker 2: all time highs. And we're not even talking about expanding
31:22
Speaker 2: and going to new heights. So there's your devil's advocate
31:26
Speaker 2: case to say, hey, you don't have a whole lot
31:29
Speaker 2: to lose when you invest in Polygon. The bad side
31:33
Speaker 2: is nobody's wanted to invest in Polygon for a long time.
31:37
Speaker 2: It just loses momentum. We've broken a long term support
31:40
Speaker 2: level here. Instead of riding it, like XRP XRP had
31:44
Speaker 2: a long term symmetrical triangle, it respected it, it stayed inside
31:47
Speaker 2: the zone, and then it exploded to the upside. Polygon
31:50
Speaker 2: lost that support level. So it's not an issue of
31:53
Speaker 2: saying it's impossible to skyrocket the upside, but I would
31:57
Speaker 2: tell you when you look at the chart and the
31:58
Speaker 2: power dynamics, the chart is telling you a story that
32:02
Speaker 2: people are just not buying Polygon and liking it for
32:06
Speaker 2: a long term future. Maybe we're wrong, Maybe have a
32:08
Speaker 2: coming back to life story kind of like what Solana had.
32:11
Speaker 2: People called Solana dead too, and then Solana is the
32:14
Speaker 2: most impressive all coins so far. This bullmarket it you know,
32:18
Speaker 2: magic you can't put in a bottle.
32:20
Speaker 4: But maybe you know, maybe a lightning.
32:23
Speaker 1: Lightning strikes twice here. Of course, you get to remember
32:25
Speaker 1: two with Polygon, Rock three is now using polymarket odds,
32:29
Speaker 1: So is it now becoming the source of truth? So
32:33
Speaker 1: you look at that in comparisons the tie.
32:36
Speaker 2: That's one thing to think though, is like, so that
32:38
Speaker 2: is curious, though, Paul, Polymarkets has been doing phenomenal over
32:42
Speaker 2: this time period, and yet the chart of Polygon keeps
32:45
Speaker 2: dropping to the downside. So like that, like that's it's
32:48
Speaker 2: a great argument and saying, look at what polymarket is doing,
32:51
Speaker 2: look at look at all the relationships they're building. But
32:53
Speaker 2: then you go look at the charts and you're saying,
32:55
Speaker 2: none of the progress of polymarkets is bleeding into the
32:58
Speaker 2: action to.
32:59
Speaker 1: The actual chart. Yeah, well, I think the key here
33:02
Speaker 1: is a lot of macro evidence that's starting to brew
33:04
Speaker 1: into the market. We'll see over the next couple of
33:08
Speaker 1: reports from the FED. You know, Obviously we'll have a
33:10
Speaker 1: report in March, but again back in May, could be
33:14
Speaker 1: the possibility of a rate cut if we go that far,
33:16
Speaker 1: that'll be another factor. And of course inflation is going
33:19
Speaker 1: to be a macro scenario that plays into that that
33:23
Speaker 1: also could have an impact on the market. So this
33:26
Speaker 1: could be one of those things that's also like a
33:28
Speaker 1: powder keg just ready to rip, and it's just waiting
33:31
Speaker 1: on a handful of things to maybe resolve on the
33:34
Speaker 1: macro side of things for sure. Hey, Tim, it's good
33:37
Speaker 1: seeing you today. Thank you so much for coming in today.
33:39
Speaker 1: As I said, you guys subscribe. We always leave a
33:41
Speaker 1: link for Tim's channel down below, but you can catch
33:44
Speaker 1: him at investing brows over on YouTube.
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Speaker 4: Thanks for coming in, awesome, Paul, thanks for having me again.
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Speaker 4: You bet all right.
33:50
Speaker 1: So you guys get in on the Diamond Circle. It's
33:52
Speaker 1: a great place to get into our community. And also
33:56
Speaker 1: if you want to talk to me, you can do
33:57
Speaker 1: it in our telegram group. It's growing like crazy, so
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Speaker 1: just use that link down below. It's going to get
34:02
Speaker 1: you in there. I'm in there talking every day, so
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Speaker 1: love to talk to you guys there. Also follow me
34:07
Speaker 1: out there on x it's just at Paul Baron. We'll
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Speaker 1: catch you next time, right here on tech Path