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Transcript

Falling Down On The Jobs · Politix

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: The premise of all of this,
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: ultimately,
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: is that once we rid the economy of foreigners,
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: people are gonna be really excited to get new job opportunities,
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: working in elder care centers,
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: picking vegetables,
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: and aren't gonna mind the higher prices for all that stuff,
• 0:18
  which is just completely at odds with the whole basic premise
• 0:23
  of Trump running
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: because people were frustrated by high prices.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll talk about...
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: what the report said,
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: how does it gel with related data,
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_01: the firing and Trump's false attempts to justify it,
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: and what it looks like when Trump is really for the first time unchecked,
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: but has lost the public's trust on the economy.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: If you wanna hear the whole conversation,
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: Hey everyone, welcome to the Politics Podcast.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Brian Boyler.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Glacius.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: Should we do a whole hour on Sydney Sweeney's jeans?
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: Her genes are excellent.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's a Nazi... It's a dog whistle to Nazis.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: I feel... I 100% believe that.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I have a mild... Oh, we're gonna do it.
• 1:43
  I was gonna lay down a bet that whoever can make a relevant
• 1:47
  tie-in to the American
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: Eagle Sidney Sweeney jeans ad gets $5 from the other person.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to observe.
• 1:52
  There's a class of political opinions that I only see voiced on
• 1:56
  the internet.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: and like not at all in real life.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: And this whole thing struck me as like an example of that.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, yeah, I mean, but I feel like this happens
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: kind of a lot in the modern,
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: like in the,
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: in the,
• 2:13
  in the identity inflected era of politics where like the
• 2:17
  democratic party is not
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: like Bud Light needs to have trans influencers be their spokesperson.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_01: It's like that happens.
• 2:26
  And then there's a partisan political backlash as if it was
• 2:29
  like Nancy Pelosi.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: No, no, no.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: I agree,
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  SPEAKER_00: but I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's thing even like a little bit different from that because like,
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: just like I,
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: I like the Bud Light ad occurred.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: I, I, and like, I just,
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: There are extreme political views that,
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats don't espouse,
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: but that,
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: I do see human beings espouse.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I've, like, met, you know, socialists and other things like this.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: This Sweeney thing I felt like was, like, just on TikTok.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: And you can never tell on social media if people,
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: especially on TikTok,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: if people even mean what they're saying or if they're just,
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: doing a bit for engagement.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  I'm in tune enough with a subset of Gen Z people to know that
• 3:18
  they have been highly
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: attuned to rising genetic determinism on the right for a long time.
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  And so they are really primed to associate people saying that
• 3:32
  your body or your
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: intellect are genetically determined to some sort of...
• 3:36
  It's like a racist dog whistle,
• 3:38
  essentially,
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  except now we're talking about the word.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to put it down.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying they're right.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think boom size is largely genetic.
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  I was not saying that the people on TikTok who decided that
• 3:54
  this was American Eagle
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: and Sidney Sweeney's strategy were on to something.
• 4:00
  I'm just saying that when I saw that this had become a thing,
• 4:02
  I'm like,
• 4:03
  oh,
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  SPEAKER_01: Yes, because I am familiar with this line of thought.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you're more in touch with the youth.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: At least with the Zoomers.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: I spend more time with Generation Alpha.
• 4:17
  And let me tell you,
• 4:18
  America's 10-year-olds are fired up about the Bureau of Labor
• 4:23
  Statistics.
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  SPEAKER_00: They appreciate the importance of statistical data.
• 4:31
  So,
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  okay,
• 4:31
  let's talk about statistical data,
• 4:32
  but I might bring this back around.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: Let's go.
• 4:35
  So Friday we got the monthly jobs report,
• 4:39
  the July jobs report,
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  and it was not good.
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  SPEAKER_01: It showed very slow job growth,
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  SPEAKER_01: lower than expected,
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  SPEAKER_01: much lower than previous unamended reports had shown.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: And it showed that the unemployment rate held steady,
• 4:57
  but I think only because Trump is scaring a bunch of people out
• 5:00
  of the workforce.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: who might otherwise be trying to get jobs and failing.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: Is that about cover it?
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: I mean...
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: So I guess,
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  the big news from the jobs report that really got people
• 5:18
  talking was that there
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  SPEAKER_00: were downward revisions to the two previous months' worth of data,
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  So if you'd had...
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  So they said the economy added 73,000 jobs in July,
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  which is a small number.
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  But if it had been 73,000 per month across three months,
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  you know,
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  that would be okay.
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  SPEAKER_00: But it said,
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  total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July and has
• 5:45
  shown little change
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  SPEAKER_00: since April,
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: right?
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  SPEAKER_00: So downward revisions to May and June,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: showing a labor market that is growing very,
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: very slowly,
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  SPEAKER_00: if at all.
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  There is a universe in which Donald Trump does not fire the BLS
• 6:06
  commissioner,
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  SPEAKER_00: and we are now having a debate over what to make of this jobs report.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: So the Department of Homeland Security this morning,
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  who it appears to be operating in a parallel universe in which
• 6:20
  Donald Trump did not
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  SPEAKER_00: fire the BLS commissioner,
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  they put out a press release showing that employment of
• 6:27
  native-born Americans
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  SPEAKER_00: This was J.D.
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  SPEAKER_00: Vance's line before Trump.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: So,
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: this is a real thing that the report says,
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  which is that employment of native-born Americans has grown by
• 6:39
  more than the
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  headline number because employment of foreign-born people has
• 6:44
  shrunk during these
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  SPEAKER_00: three months.
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  SPEAKER_00: So...
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that's interesting.
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  Like,
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  we can argue as to whether,
• 6:51
  like,
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  that's good,
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  that's bad,
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  whatever.
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  SPEAKER_00: But that's what I would say is, like, normal politics, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Like,
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  SPEAKER_00: a report comes out,
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  and then the people on different sides of the partisan divide
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  start spinning the
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  SPEAKER_00: report.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so J.D.
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  SPEAKER_00: Vance,
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  SPEAKER_00: DHS,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: they have a spin on this report,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is that,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: these jobs numbers are...
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  SPEAKER_00: This is the plan.
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  SPEAKER_00: These jobs numbers are much better than they look.
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  SPEAKER_00: Like under Biden,
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: sure,
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  SPEAKER_00: there was rapid job growth,
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  SPEAKER_00: but a large share of those jobs were going to foreigners.
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  SPEAKER_00: Now under Trump,
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  SPEAKER_00: there's slower job growth,
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  SPEAKER_00: but a larger share of the smaller pie is going to native-born Americans.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, I mean, I think we could have a...
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: debate about all of that, right?
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  SPEAKER_00: Because on some level,
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  SPEAKER_00: I don't wanna say I agree with Vance,
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  SPEAKER_00: but I agree with the take that like,
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: if you are deliberately...
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  We had another report that they have not disputed and where
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  they didn't fire
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  SPEAKER_00: anyone.
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  SPEAKER_00: In fact,
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  SPEAKER_00: they've been bragging it,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is that there has been negative net migration in 2025,
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  SPEAKER_00: that Trump has shut down illegal immigration,
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  SPEAKER_00: he has curtailed legal immigration,
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  SPEAKER_00: and he has frightened people into leaving the country so that...
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  SPEAKER_00: the foreign-born population is shrinking.
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  SPEAKER_00: And that is a stated policy goal of the Trump administration.
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  SPEAKER_00: They say, I mean, Vance, again, is like, leads the charge on this.
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  Not just that they want to stop the surge of immigration that
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  happened under Biden,
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  SPEAKER_00: but reverse what they characterize as an invasion.
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  And so I think,
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  obviously,
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  if you're trying to shrink the population,
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  it's like hard
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  SPEAKER_00: to have robust job growth.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
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  SPEAKER_01: So let's actually have the debate because,
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_01: it's not like a hot partisan topic exactly,
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  SPEAKER_01: but like broader population dynamics,
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  SPEAKER_01: like deracinated,
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  SPEAKER_01: like apart from illegal immigration or whatever,
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  SPEAKER_01: They drive a ton of political thought.
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  SPEAKER_01: And like some of it's like like weird, fringy stuff.
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  SPEAKER_01: But some of it's just like,
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  SPEAKER_01: are we going to be able to grow the economy consistently,
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  SPEAKER_01: care for senior citizens,
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  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
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  SPEAKER_01: if population even just flattens,
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  SPEAKER_01: even if we just have no population growth?
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  And that's like way more gradual than what Trump's done here,
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  which is like take a hatchet.
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  SPEAKER_01: to the labor force.
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  And I feel like if you asked most economists a year ago or five
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  years ago,
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  SPEAKER_01: like what happens to the economy if you do that,
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  SPEAKER_01: right?
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  They'd say you would get a recession because you can't just
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  abruptly level down
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  SPEAKER_01: like that and then settle at a new lower level,
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  SPEAKER_01: right?
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  SPEAKER_01: Because like maybe like for a month,
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  you could decrease the number of job seekers by enough to
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  offset the decrease in
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: job openings.
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  SPEAKER_01: And so you get flat unemployment.
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  But at the same time,
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  you're going to imperil businesses that depend on steady
• 9:46
  demand.
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  And eventually you run out of immigrants to deport or jail or
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  send into hiding and
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_01: you get higher unemployment.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: Like that's what would happen.
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  And I don't know that they're like they can brag about this
• 9:57
  sliver of their quote
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  unquote accomplishments of of of like of like whitening America
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  by by scaring off
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  SPEAKER_01: brown people.
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  SPEAKER_01: But that is not consistent with a also the economy's booming economy.
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  SPEAKER_01: Like, it's just, I don't know that you can do that.
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  SPEAKER_00: Can you?
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't know.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: I guess,
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: I just would say,
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  SPEAKER_00: right,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: as a fair-minded person who's been reading these numbers,
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  SPEAKER_00: that,
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  SPEAKER_00: like,
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  SPEAKER_00: relative to my expectations for Trump's policies,
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: this is not a bad result,
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: it seems to me that if this is going to be your immigration policy,
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_00: any month that the jobs number is positive is,
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: a good month.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: Now, that's to say, like, I don't agree with these policies, right?
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: But,
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 10:47
  the risk of what Trump is doing on immigration is that you are
• 10:52
  going to tilt into
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: the negative zone.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know how long we can stay out of the negative zone,
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  SPEAKER_00: frankly,
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_00: given what's happening on trade as well.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, even if...
• 11:04
  like we had a perfect crystal ball and we knew that the new
• 11:07
  forming consensus that
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: we're probably entering a recession is correct.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_01: Like the way a country enters recession is usually like,
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_01: I would have to go back and look at past recessions,
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_01: but it's not like you have healthy job growth,
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_01: 180,000 a month,
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_01: 180,000 a month,
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_01: 180,000 a month,
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_01: and then boom,
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_01: out of nowhere,
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_01: negative 250,000,
• 11:21
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: Like there's a, like the data takes a while to catch up to reality.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_01: And so you have 180 and then you have 90 and then you have
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: 40,
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: then you have zero,
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_01: and then when you look back,
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_01: it's like a downward slope and curve of jobs.
• 11:41
  And like between what this report with its revisions shows
• 11:45
  about the last three
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_01: months,
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_01: plus recent inflation data,
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: it suggests that we're like jobs,
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_01: like the economy is shrinking,
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: prices are rising,
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_01: we're entering stagflation territory,
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: which is like the thing that
• 12:00
  like I think Trump's most honest critics said is a likely
• 12:03
  outcome of the kick
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_01: immigrants out,
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_01: increase tariffs,
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: and cut taxes by a ton economic strategy,
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_01: which is like what he has implemented rapidly.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, possibly.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: So I do think actually like historically recessions do often come quite –
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, so, like, if you look, September 2007, 88,000 new jobs.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: Next month, 76,000.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: Next month, it got better, 114,000.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: Next month, 104,000.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: And then it's negative, slightly negative, January 2008.
• 12:29
  And then every month is negative for,
• 12:31
  like,
• 12:31
  a year and a half going forward.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, I mean...
• 12:48
  It's hard to say,
• 12:49
  because also all of these dynamics are different,
• 12:51
  right?
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: the financial crisis was very different from COVID,
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: which in turn is very different from this kind of,
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_00: deliberate shocks to the supply side of the economy that Trump has given.
• 13:05
  I guess,
• 13:06
  like,
• 13:06
  the main thing I would think about all of this is that it's
• 13:08
  just,
• 13:09
  it's hard...
• 13:10
  to come up with a coherent,
• 13:15
  you know,
• 13:18
  account of the Trumpian viewpoint on this.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: Because,
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: he was on CNBC this morning banging the drum for,
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: we need interest rate cuts,
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 13:27
  The whole Republican Party is off in a sort of inappropriate
• 13:31
  effort to pressure the
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
• 13:37
  The whole logic of that is that you're worried about economic
• 13:41
  growth and job growth.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: So it doesn't make sense.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's of course not unusual for Trump to be illogical.
• 13:52
  But I would say my take is that,
• 13:55
  like,
• 13:56
  the argument for interest rate cuts is weak.
• 13:59
  The evidence that the argument for interest rate cuts is weak
• 14:02
  is that job growth
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: continues to be positive even though we're shrinking the labor force.
• 14:09
  Trump is saying,
• 14:10
  no,
• 14:11
  the real job situation is much better than these reports say.
• 14:15
  But if that's true,
• 14:16
  there's definitely no reason to cut interest rates,
• 14:19
  right?
• 14:19
  The reason to cut interest rates is that you have a kind of a
• 14:23
  boiler-ish view that
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: the economy is sliding into recession.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: And they're like,
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: Powell should be looking through the tariffs,
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: because even though the tariffs raise prices,
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: that's a one-off impact,
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: and we should be cutting rates.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: so,
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: hang on,
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: but this is,
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: with Trump,
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: it's very hard,
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: as you're,
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_01: kind of suggesting,
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_01: to get a clear sense of what he really thinks is happening.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_01: You can't really get it by listening to what he says or by,
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: the reverse-engineered arguments that smarter people around him make.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: But what you can do is you can look at how he's behaving, right?
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_01: And to me, he's behaving like he did...
• 15:02
  when COVID hadn't become fully epidemic in the US and he was
• 15:07
  trying to silence
• 15:08
  people at the CDC who were warning people of coming disruptions
• 15:12
  and saying that the
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_01: numbers would go down to zero.
• 15:14
  Like he knew at that point already because he had been well
• 15:17
  briefed and was telling
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: reporters behind the scenes,
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: this is gonna be bad.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is a really serious virus.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: And but what he was saying in public was this is fine.
• 15:28
  In fact,
• 15:28
  the people who are telling you it's not fine are are giving you
• 15:32
  fake news.
• 15:34
  And like if he had been led to believe or if the if the best
• 15:39
  analysis from CDC at
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: the time had been.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: that COVID is going to come.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_01: It's going to be like a bad flu season,
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: but then it's going to be gone,
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_01: and it'll be fine after that.
• 15:48
  I don't think Trump would have been panicking or trying to
• 15:50
  silence people or whatever.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: He would have just said that.
• 15:54
  It would have come like borne out or not,
• 15:56
  and then we would have been on to the next phase.
• 15:59
  The way he's acting now suggests he believes that we're in for
• 16:03
  rough economic
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_01: times,
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: and he is trying,
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: as he was then,
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: to prevent the public from grasping what was happening.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I guess that's right.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: I don't,
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: like...
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: It's challenging,
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: to model the whole thing,
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: because I think that if he gets what he wants from the Fed,
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: that it's not gonna deliver the results that he wants.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's a confusing time, right?
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: Trump is... There's been this kind of, like, inversion
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: I would say,
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: in some ways,
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: of public assessments of Trump relative to his first term,
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: when he used to get very poor marks.
• 16:51
  He has a stronger overall approval rating right now than he did
• 16:55
  at an equivalent
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: point in his first term.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: But the state of the economy is a big weak spot for him now,
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: whereas it was a strong point when he was less popular eight years ago.
• 17:11
  And neither he nor anyone else seems to me to really know what
• 17:15
  to do about that.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_00: You know, and he's flipping as I feel like
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: Biden to an extent did in 2023.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: The answer is to get people talking about Sidney Sweeney and her jeans.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: Sure, yes.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, some of it is- Five dollars.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: Some of it is that to like change the subject.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: But you know,
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 17:36
  I think we talked about this a lot and certainly before we did
• 17:39
  our podcast,
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_00: lots of people talked about it.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 17:43
  Democrats found the public's sour mood about the economy in the
• 17:50
  last two years of
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_00: Biden's administration very frustrating.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: and they kept flipping between,
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: we need to,
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: talk the economy up and get people...
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: more enthusiastic about it.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 18:04
  did not do anything as inappropriate as fire the BLS
• 18:08
  commissioner to like,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: but like,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: there was a view that was like,
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_00: we need to spin people harder.
• 18:13
  And then there was a view that was like,
• 18:15
  we need to get interest rates down lower.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's what people are really upset about.
• 18:19
  And they had their same version of this kind of paralysis and
• 18:25
  back and forth.
• 18:26
  And Trump,
• 18:26
  because he's much more extreme,
• 18:28
  much more unbound by norms,
• 18:30
  is like,
• 18:31
  going 10 times further in both directions than anyone on the
• 18:36
  Biden team did,
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 18:37
  SPEAKER_00: starting to meddle with the statistics themselves to tell people,
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: that the data's better than it is,
• 18:46
  and increasingly hinting that he will fire Powell or do other
• 18:52
  things at the Fed to
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_00: force interest rates down lower.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_00: And it's the same thing where, like,
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_00: Both things can't be true simultaneously, right?
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_00: That the economy is both much stronger than the official data is saying,
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_00: but also that we need much lower interest rates.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, I don't know.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_01: Well, okay.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: The truth is that immigrants are economically beneficial,
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: but that the public doesn't want to hear that.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: And so you have a lot of dissonance.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: Okay,
• 19:23
  maybe we should take a break here and then talk about what
• 19:29
  politics is going to
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_01: look like,
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: assuming various scenarios.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_01: One where this is actually just a blip,
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_01: one where we're in for some sort of modest correction,
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: and one where this is just a secular problem that Trump has created,
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_01: where for the indefinite future,
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: the engine of growth is going to be off.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: Because I think those are all, I guess, plausible scenarios.
• 19:52
  And like we are setting the stage for political questions about
• 19:57
  who gets blame or
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: credit depending on how things shake out right now.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_01: So if you want to hear us talk about that stuff,
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: you can go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.