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How Much Bitcoin Do You Need to Retire? | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

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  How much Bitcoin do you need to retire?
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  How much? Bitcoin, do you truly need to
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  retire? Do you need one Bitcoin .1
• 0:08
  Bitcoin .01 Bitcoin .0001 Bitcoin?
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  What if I told you that no such magic number exists, and that
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  you may want to avoid this mindset altogether?
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  It it depends on how long you can hold it, but I think it'll
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  have infinite purchasing power eventually.
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  Stick around to the end of this video and you may just change
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  your tune about retirement altogether.
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  I emotions. This is beyond Bitcoin, truly
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  beyond Bitcoin. Let's dive in.
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  We're all after the same thing, an easier, more thoughtful life
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  that allows us the freedom to do what we want, when we want.
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  The desire to retire has never been stronger with the influx of
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  the boomer generation and Gen. X reaching retirement ages, it
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  has the rest of us thinking when is our time.
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  But with the current economic landscape, rise in the cost of
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  living in all kinds of economic uncertainties, many of us are
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  understanding more and more that retirement will be out of reach
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  for good. But here's some good news for
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  those of you who are holding Bitcoin.
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  Traditionally, when we think about retirement, we're thinking
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  passive income, lake house, property, fishing.
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  But there's a couple of problems with this approach.
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  Number one, on average, what happens to the health of those
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  who retire? And more importantly #2 what
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  happens when your retirement plan doesn't compensate for the
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  rate of inflation? This makes me think of all kinds
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  of questions. One important one is, if the
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  currency is getting debased at such a rapid rate, should we
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  really be looking to retire at all?
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  You do know we're getting debased, right?
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  Trump wants to cut rates. Are there.
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  Things. Are there things the chairman
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  can say to you today that would make you back off some of the
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  earlier criticism? Well, I'd love him to lower
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  interest rates. Other than that, what can I tell
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  you? Our country's going to make a
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  lot of money. We would be helped if interest
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  rates would come down, but we're going to see how the board rules
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  on that soon. I I'd love to see them come down
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  a. Lot.
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  Doesn't that mean like money printing or something?
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  I mean, this is a serious question.
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  What do you think, Michael? You know, if we take, for
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  example, during the pandemic, the the response of the
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  political apparatus was to lower interest rates to zero and to
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  start start buying assets, in essence printing money.
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  And the defense was there's no inflation.
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  Yeah, but of course you had one part of the economy where it was
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  locked down, so it was illegal to buy anything.
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  But you couldn't, you know, it was either illegal or it was
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  impractical. So it would be impossible for
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  demand to manifest. So of course there is no
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  inflation. On the other hand, there was
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  instantaneous immediate inflation in another part of the
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  economy. For example, you lower the
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  interest rates to 0. At one point we saw the the swap
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  rate on a 30 year note go to 72 basis points.
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  OK. That means that the value of a
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  long dated bond immediately inflate.
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  So the bond market had hyperinflation within minutes of
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  these financial decisions. The asset market had
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  hyperinflation. We had what you call AK shaped
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  recovery, what we affectionately call a shake K shaped recovery.
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  Main Street shut down, Wall Street recovered all within six
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  weeks. The inflation was in the assets
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  like in the stocks and the bonds.
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  You know, if you look today, you see that typical house according
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  to Case Shiller index today is up 19.2% year over year.
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  So if you're a first time home buyer, the inflation rate is
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  19%. So retirement sounds like the
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  dream that we've all been waiting for, the freedom to
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  relax, the freedom to do what you want.
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  But if your monthly stipend is the same and cost of living is
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  increasing, what will your retirement look like
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  incrementally? Anyone got a chart on that?
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  Retirement is fine, but do you have a survival plan?
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• 4:12
  solar flares, and power grid failures.
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• 4:16
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• 4:18
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• 4:23
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• 4:27
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• 4:31
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• 4:37
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  prepared. Now I want to go back to another
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  question. What happens to your health on
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  average when you retire? Today I would like to talk to
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  you about how under certain circumstances, retirement could
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  speed speed up aging of our brain.
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  It would make us slower and more forgetful, and ultimately it
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  could increase our risk of Alzheimer's disease.
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  This study, called the Path Through Life project, started in
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  about 2001. Since then, the participants
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  have been contacted every four years.
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  And today I'll show you data that's been all the way through
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  the 4th data collection that occurred in about 2015, when the
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  oldest participants were around 77 years old.
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  I mentioned earlier that retirement could be a trap.
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  To show you what I mean, I want to use changes in memory
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  performance or in our ability to remember things.
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  As an example, to test memory, the participants were asked to
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  repeat back words that were just read to them.
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  They were supposed to repeat as many as they could.
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  The words were sort of random and from unrelated categories
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  like tools, fruit, kitchen utensils.
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  So the task was quite challenging.
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  If you look at the slide behind me, the horizontal line at the
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  bottom shows you ages of the participants across this
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  longitudinal study. And the vertical line on your
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  left tells you how many words people actually recalled.
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  And here are the results. What you see that at the
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  beginning of the study, these participants were most likely to
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  recall close to 8 words. Later on, about 12 years later
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  in fact, they were more likely to recall closer to 6 words, and
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  this is quite normal and not bad.
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  Now the story gets more interesting when we separate
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  scores obtained when people were still working from scores
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  obtained when people were already retired.
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  What you see is that the decline in memory was almost exclusively
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  restricted to the scores obtained when people were
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  already retired, whereas those who continue to work showed a
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  pretty stable performance. Something seems to happen around
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  the time of retirement that could make people more
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  forgetful. Let's look at this from a
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  slightly different perspective. OK, Let's say that we're all
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  members of the same bank, all of us here.
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  Let's call it the the Bank of TEDx, OK?
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  And we each get $14140 every day.
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  Not for anything we actually do. We just get the money deposited
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  into our account and we can do anything we want with it.
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  Just imagine the possibilities. But every night, whatever we
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  don't spend or invest into something disappears.
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  But the next day, voila, a brand new deposit of $14140 again
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  appears in our bank account. So we can have some fun.
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  Well, as some of you may have already figured out, I'm talking
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  about the 14140 minutes that we get in every day.
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  It's a gift. When we work, we devote some 500
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  of these minutes every working day to work.
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  When we retire, well, guess what?
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  We even get to keep these extra 500 minutes instead.
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  Nice, right? Well, maybe not.
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  It seems like when people enter into retirement, sometimes they
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  become tempted not to invest enough of their time into things
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  that are challenging. They sort of drift into a
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  permanent vacation, and as they go on this really long vacation,
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  guess what? They fall into the retirement
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  trap. Research suggests retirement may
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  increase risks like with depression and cognitive
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  decline. It seems likely that staying
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  active and purposeful can mitigate these health drawbacks.
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  But the evidence leans towards retirement posing challenges
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  like social isolation and reduce mental stimulation.
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  The current economic landscape of the S&P 500 at record highs
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  and Bitcoin at $120,000 might encourage retirement for those
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  with strong portfolios. But inflation is at 2.7% on
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  paper, and lower knows how much it is in reality.
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  Let's say you come up with a number to retire.
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  You put all of your calculations inside of some sort of retiring
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  calculator and you come up with a number.
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  And let's say you achieved that number.
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  Problem is, do you know what the economic landscape will be when
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  you do? No way.
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  Here's some figures to think about while you're considering
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  retirement now in your 30s and 40s.
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  This chart estimates costs of healthcare over time for
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  retirees from 2002 to 2018. This is before the big print.
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  In 20/20/2002 had $160,000 estimated for health costs for
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  retirees, and in 2018 $280,000. That's a 75% increase.
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  Not only is this metric rising 75%, but that's not compensating
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  for the fact that cost of living itself has gone up dramatically.
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  Groceries, automobiles, vacations, all of these things
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  are costing more money as time goes on.
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  Here's another chart from Business Insider that I thought
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  was a little funny. This chart shows that how much
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  in millions you'll need to retire based on the desired
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  salary you want to earn annually, and this estimates at
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  a 4% withdrawal rate every year. You're supposed to be
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  withdrawing 4% of that Piggy Bank of income that you have,
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  but the inflation rate is already at 2.7% on paper and we
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  don't know what it is in reality.
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  In fact, inflation probably is calculated a lot closer to what
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  your personal situation is and where you live and the cost of
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  goods in your local area. This chart already shows you
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  that if you want to earn 100 KA year, you'll need $2.5 million
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  to save. Or if your desired income is 250
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  KA here, you'll need to save $6.25 million.
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  Now, that's in today's prices. What's funny about that is that
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  what happens when the inflation rate goes up?
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  What happens to that $6.25 million?
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  Does $250,000 mean the same now as it does in five years?
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  My guess is no. So we can see that the big
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  problem here with the traditional way of thinking
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  about retirement and even Bitcoin retirement calculators
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  is that none of these models can factor in the uncertainties of
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  existence. And man, do we have a lot of
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  uncertainties. These can be internal and
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  external. What do I mean by this?
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  You're sitting here with your retirement calculator trying to
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  fix your mind on a particular number based on this particular
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  situation at this moment in time.
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  So you do everything you can to achieve this golden number
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  you've come up with. You take extra shifts, you cut
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  spending, and you make a series of choices based on the
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  assumption of constants. Then the unthinkable happens.
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  A lost job, an added monthly expense, a giant medical bill.
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  The list goes on and on. Of unfortunate circumstances
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  that could upend your retirement plans.
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  Also, the inverse is true. Say you get a better paying
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  position, or a hefty bonus, or a massive inheritance from an
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  unknown auntie. Suddenly you're stacking and
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  retirement goals shift and you start thinking about not just
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  your own future, but the future of those around you.
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  The point is that whatever economic position you are in, it
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  is subject to change, for better or for worse.
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  So really, the question about how much Bitcoin is needed to
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  retire and at what age might be the wrong question entirely.
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  Instead, I would encourage you to take a far more flexible
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  approach. Every day is a Bitcoin stacking
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  opportunity and based on the fundamentals that we all know,
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  Bitcoin will continue to rise against the dollar.
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  I don't think we were meant to retire.
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  What happens to a car when it retires on the front lawn?
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  Same thing that happens to you when you retire.
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  Atrophy and entropy. So instead I would say stack
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  often but not at the expense of your life.
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  There is no magic number out there and the future is
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  uncertain. Thank you so much for watching.
• 12:59
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• 13:11
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• 13:14
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• 13:19
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• 13:33
  Guys, thank you so much for watching.
• 13:34
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• 13:36
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• 13:39
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• 13:41
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• 13:43
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• 13:46
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