Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 451 - 2/10/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 451 - 2/10/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 451 of the all systems go sports betting
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podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh Applebaum.
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What's going on, everyone? Happy Tuesday.
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Another day here in the arena, guys.
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We talked about a little bit yesterday, but this is a
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transitional period. Football is over with.
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But I try to get you guys a little bit excited yesterday
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because now it's going to be full throttle with college
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basketball. We're at the tail end of the
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college basketball season before you know it.
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We're going to have conference tournaments and then don't look
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now, but it'll be March Madness. So really excited to really
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laser focus on college hoops. So I think there's a ton of
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value out right now. We know a lot about these teams
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with a big body of work to investigate.
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Of course, we got our Ken Palm ratings that we can take
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advantage of. We got rhythm, we got juice reel
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edges. And then also, of course, with
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football being over, you're going to get a lot of
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recreational betters moving from football over to college
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basketball. So hopefully that influx of
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recreational money, public money, they're going to be
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taking the better team, the better record, the better
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ranking. Hopefully that provides some
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value for us to to go the other way and go contrarian.
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So with that being said, I did mention yesterday baseball not
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too far off either. So I, I did start my
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investigation for some MLB win total.
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So stay tuned for that. I got a few teams in mind, but I
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want to, you know, kind of see where this late money breaks.
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And now with spring training starting with I think a few
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teams showing up starting tomorrow.
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Although I'm a Red Sox fan, I saw some Red Sox players show up
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down at Fort Myers actually yesterday.
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So baseball's in the air. It always makes me think of one
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of my favorite quotes of all time, Honus Wagner, who has, I
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believe, one of the best or most expensive baseball cards of all
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time. I think it's over like
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$1,000,000. But someone asked him, you know,
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what do you do in the winter when there's no baseball?
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And he had the greatest response ever.
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He said, I stare out the window and wait for spring.
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So again, we're, we're pretty close to to not staring anymore,
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but actually having some games to bet on.
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So we got baseball, we got college basketball.
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That's really what we'll be focusing on moving forward here.
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With that being said, right back to college hoops guys.
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I got 3 college basketball plays for you tonight.
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I have one of my favorite system matches of all time.
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I have a very gross but super sharp contrarian RLM playing
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heavily back game. And then I got a late game here
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with kind of a fishy team that isn't as good as the other team
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based on the one loss record, but the line, the movement, the
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splits are going toward the team with the worst record.
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So you know what we're going to do with that one.
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So 3 plays overall, going to see if we can go 2IN1, eek out a
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winning night. Now, looking back toward last
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night, guys, nice little bounce back after losing Patriots Plus
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4 1/2 complete. No show by my Patriots in the
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Super Bowl, but we went 2 and 1 + 0.6 units to start the week,
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so we will take it. I had a nice start with an
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obscure sharp line move with Florida A&M.
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If you remember, that was a added game, extra game.
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But we saw that -3 up to -3 1/2, they had a big lead the entire
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time. And actually Prairie View made
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it way too close at the end. So the 3 1/2 you still covered,
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you won by 4. The line move obviously came
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through, but that's the reason why money line short favorites
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because again, you know, 11 extra, you know, free throw here
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or there. That's a push or a loss.
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So it's nice to see Florida A&M and that's all we always talk
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about, you know, 6 digit rotation number, if there's line
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movement means public doesn't care about it.
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But sharps obviously like Florida A&M.
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So that was a nice hit to start the night.
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Unfortunately, Belmont, I'm so annoyed by Belmont last night.
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I didn't like the fact that the line did creep back down toward
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Bradley. So at one point it was Belmont.
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I want to say they were as high as -2 1/2, even 3, then up
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closing -1 1/2 or one. But still, Belmont was up three
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points with, you know, again, less than 30 seconds left.
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I don't know why you don't foul up 3, because you foul up three.
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They go to the line, they might make both.
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You're still up 1. You got a chance to win that
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game. Idiot Belmont, stupid coach.
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I don't know who he is, but they don't foul.
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And of course, Bradley hits a three to tie the game.
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And then was even more frustrating as there was this
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kid W who Bradley had or Belmont had an opportunity, was tied.
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I think they had like 20 seconds left.
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Again, you can hold for the final shot.
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What does the kid do? He just turns it over.
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He literally was dribbling on on the, you know, around the
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three-point line, makes a cut inward, wasn't even touched and
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dribbled the ball out of bounds. So could have lost to the
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buzzer. But it's annoying to me.
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They didn't foul up 3. Then you have a chance to win
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it. You don't even get a shot off.
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And you and if you've been betting sports long enough, this
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happens in other sports too. But if you have that opportunity
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to win the game late in regulation and you blow it and
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you force overtime, I feel like 75% of the time you're doomed to
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lose in overtime. And that's exactly what
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happened. Bradley went off, so Belmont was
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a loser, even though, again, they should have won that game.
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However, we did get a nice break with the Kansas Jayhawks.
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Kansas Jayhawks came up absolutely huge for contrarian
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betters last night. Remember, everybody and their
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mother was on Arizona getting nearly 80% of bets in the most
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heavily bet game of the night. I thought we got a pretty good
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+2 with Kansas because Arizona open -2 1/2 got down to 1 1/2.
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However, there was a late breaking injury.
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Darren Peterson, guys really good, but he was a late scratch
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with flu like symptoms. And as soon as Peterson was out,
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that line shot up all the way to Arizona -4 1/2 even -5 1/2.
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So I had a lot of people DM me on Twitter.
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And again, DMS are always open. I'm always here for you at Josh
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under score Insights. But a bunch of people say, hey,
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you know, do you still like Kansas?
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What are you going to do? This line went the other way.
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There's no Peterson. I'll just remind you guys.
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There's different ways to handle situations like that.
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You could buy out, you could bet the other side, you could, you
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know, double down on Kansas plus 5 1/2 if you get the best price.
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I would argue against those. Again, it's up to you how you
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want to play it, but I'm always of the opinion.
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I know my buddy Da Rouche and my buddy King W Cot Netsar know
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this as well. But I'm someone who dances with
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the one who brung me. Again, I always think about
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that. It's it's kind of a cliche
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phrase, but if I get a bad Kansas +2, I thought it was a
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good one because the line was down to 1 1/2, shoots up, guys
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out. I'm going to stick with my
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original bet. I always try to stick with my
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original bet because I look at it one of two ways.
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Maybe you get lucky and they cover or win anyway.
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Or if you lose, I probably deserve to lose that game
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because I got the wrong number. Luckily, even though Belmont let
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us down, Kansas came up absolutely huge.
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Even though Peterson was out, Kansas won the game outright, 82
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to 78. Council and Badunga were
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absolutely huge if you know what I'm talking about if you watch
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that game. But it was great to see that
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even though Peterson was out, Kansas still got it done.
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So a massive hit for contrarians and one little comment.
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Darren Peterson, he's expected to be the number one overall
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pick. He might be incredible.
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He is when he plays, but this guy is never available.
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How many games has Peterson missed flu like symptoms?
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It's always weird when in a team when you hang out with, you
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know, your teammates 24/7. How are you the only one with
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flu like symptoms? Who's out?
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And if you he missed a bunch of games with a hamstring.
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He's got like, again, Zion Williamson vibes for me.
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Like I don't know, I'm not that he's like overweight and prone
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to injury, but the guy is always hurt.
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It's like you're 18 years old. Like you should be in your peak,
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you know, health and and youth and again, maybe he just got
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sick and there's nothing you can do.
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But I'm like Peterson again, if you follow Kansas, they're
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really turning it on playing great.
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But this guy is always freaking hurt.
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That would scare me if I'm picking number one overall, but
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who knows, he'll probably be great in the NBA anyway.
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But we'll with A2 in 1 + 0.6 unit night, we'll take it.
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We'll put it in our back pocket. We'll reinvest it tonight and
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try to have a a little win streak here started.
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So with that being said, let's get right into tonight's plays.
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Another big night of college basketball and I can't wait to
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sweat these games with you guys. I want to start off first with
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the most heavily back game of the night, 7:00 PM Eastern Time,
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Purdue visiting Nebraska. Let's set the stage.
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Talk line movement, split system matches.
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I'll give you my play for this one now.
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Purdue comes in 19 and four on the year.
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They're ranked 13th overall. They've won two in a row just
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held off Oregon 68 to 64, but they're actually favored by 18
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1/2 at home in that one. So they did not cover another
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hand. Nebraska 21 and 2.
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They just snapped A2 game losing skid with an 80 to 68 win over
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Rutgers. They're actually favored by 12
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1/2. So lost by the hook there in
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terms of not covering it even though they won the game and.
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What are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, this game open with Nebraska listed as a 1 1/2 point
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home favorite and it's always notable to me.
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You got 2 good teams, 2 highly ranked teams here, a short
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number. You know what?
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What do the sharps do? Do they pounce on the good team
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at Homeland, a short number? Or do they say, hey, that, you
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know, opposing good team, just take the points because they're
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even. Well, if you look at the open a
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current, it looks like the line hasn't moved at all.
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Nebraska open -1 1/2. They're still -1 1/2.
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However, this is what I always stress, and this is a great
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feature of the Odds Logic live odds page, being able to pull up
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the line history. Just because it opens at a
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number and you look and it's currently the same number, don't
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automatically think, OK, it never moved.
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What you want to do in these situations is pull up the line
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history at a couple different books.
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So when I'm looking at my live odds page with odds logic again,
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you can always try it out. Seven day free trial, 50% off
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your first month just by going to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
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When I pop open line history for big books like circa, like
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Pinnacle, I always look at DraftKings, FanDuel, again, bet
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online. There's a bunch of books that
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are meaningful to me. But when I popped open the line
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history showing you every move in between, not just the open to
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current, I noticed that the Cornhuskers at one point got up
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to -2 even -2 1/2. So that's important to me.
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It's important to me that this line never got down to 1.
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Yes, we're open and where it's currently at early afternoon is
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the same number. But the line history tells you
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that all movement liability has been on the Nebraska side.
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It's not like it got down to one or a pick them then came back to
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1 1/2. It's either stayed the same or
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move toward Nebraska. So that's my first indication
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that smart money is leaning Nebraska here.
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Now you could DK 68% of spread bets, 75% of spread dollars on
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Nebraska. So kind of a pro and Joe Low
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bets, higher dollar split in favor of the Cornhuskers.
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Ken Palm, he has Nebraska winning the game by three
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points, 74 to 72. So you might say just lay the 1
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1/2 again. Crazy things happen when I see
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Ken Palm predicted 3 point win. They're currently -1 1/2.
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You know what I like to do or if you don't know by now, I'm a
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money line short favorite guy. That just gives me a little bit
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more cushion where if Ken Palm says 3 lines, 1 1/2, they got to
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win by 2:00. What if they just win by one?
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That's why I want a money line, a short favorite here.
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So I money lined Nebraska -120 a little bit earlier today.
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I think that was at Caesar's. Looks like most books are around
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-125 at this point, that's at DraftKings.
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Some books are -130 so again, shop around.
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But it's really not a bad money line price.
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What I really like is that at Circa Cornhuskers are getting
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83% of money line bets over 90% of money line dollars.
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So that is a good low bets, higher dollar split from the
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wise guys out in Vegas. And when I was teasing a system
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match that I love to play, it's when 2 ranked teams face off,
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take the home favorite straight up.
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It's a very, you know, old system for me, but basically 2
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ranked teams take the home favorite.
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That's 19 and 11 straight up. This year, 63% and it's 194 and
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79 straight up 71% with nearly a 5% ROI since 2021.
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So in this situation, 2 good teams take the home favorite.
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That's been the system play historically.
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Some advantages here for Nebraska, better defensive
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efficiency, 11th versus 26th for Purdue, better free throw
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shooting could be huge in a tight game, 38th for Nebraska,
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105th for the Purdue Boilermakers.
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Also, Nebraska on defense, they hold their opponents to a better
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effective field goal percentage, 38th versus 125th, and they
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forced more turnovers on defense, 67th versus 200 and
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13th. Nebraska has also been really
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good at home. They're 12 and one straight up
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this year. So you Add all up guys.
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Again, I always try to just give you guys little little Nuggets,
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little little tips, recommendations.
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You see a line that looks the same, open a current again,
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don't assume that it just stayed there the whole time.
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Pulp line history liabilities been toward Nebraska.
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We got good splits. We have system matches with that
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2 ranked teams take the home favorite.
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And then lastly, I noticed a 7% sharp mush edge from our friends
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at Juice Reel, also on Nebraska. So my first play of the night,
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Let's go Cornhuskers money line win the damn game.
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I got Nebraska -120 again. Some shops now as high as -125
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-. 130 Next one for you. Our biggest contrarian play of
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the night, North Carolina visiting EU 7:00 PM tip Here in
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Miami, we got UNC 19 and four on the year.
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They're ranked 11th overall. They've won five straight and
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they just upset Duke 71 to 68. The one that came outright as a
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6 1/2 point home dog. Meanwhile, Miami not too shabby
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either. They're 18 and five.
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They've won three of their last four.
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They just beat Boston College 74 to 68.
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Didn't cover though as an 8 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
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So just seeing across the market here.
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Well this game opened North Carolina listed as a very short
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1 1/2 point Rd. favorite and the public says are you kidding me?
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UNC is the way better team. They're ranked, they got a
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better record, they just beat Duke.
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How are they only laying 1 1/2 on the road?
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Public thinks it's too good to be true. 78% of spread bets are
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laying the points of the UNC. However, even though you're
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getting this massive support toward the Tar Heels, North
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Carolina has not risen -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2 - 3.
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They've actually stayed right where they're at -1 1/2.
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And some books are even down to 1.
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So let's take a step back here. In the one of the most heavily
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bet games of the night, we have the public hammering North
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Carolina. However, the sign has stayed the
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same or dropped toward the very unpopular Miami, FL.
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That tells us that we have a very sharp line freeze, even
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some reverse line movement where the line has stayed the same,
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remove toward EU, even though the public's pounding the Tar
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Heels. So that's a great indicator of
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liability on Miami. Even though the books are taken
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just hand over fist Miami, North Carolina tickets, I should say,
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from the public, they aren't going up.
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They're staying the same. We're dropping toward Miami.
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Even if you take away that really sharp line freezer, RLM
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Miami is just a straight up contrarian play.
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They're kind of in the same spot as Kansas last night where no
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one wants to play them. It's a heavily back game on ESPN
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just from a fade. The drunk guys at the bar
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standpoint, a lot of value here to go with Miami.
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They also are an unranked VS ranked system match.
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So we have Miami unranked even though they're 18 and five.
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Good record unranked. And we are of course in a spot
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here where we can sell high on UNC after a big upset win.
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Ken Palm, believe it or not, has Miami winning the game by 1.79
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to 78. So some good actionable value on
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the Hurricanes, plus 1 1/2. Miami has a couple advantages
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here. They have the better effective
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field goal percentage, 18th versus 45th.
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They also have the better offensive rebound percentage,
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22nd versus 102nd. They have the better defensive
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efficiency, 42nd versus 48th. They do a better job of turning
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their opponents over, 81st versus 340.
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Second. Also, we got Miami 12 and two at
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home. UNC is just 500 on the road 3
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and 3. So I jumped on Miami plus 1 1/2.
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Again, this is our Kansas play from last night.
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Hopefully no injuries that will move the line like last night.
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But there's also a 21% sharp mush edge from our friends over
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at Juice Rail. So it tells me wise guys, wise
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gals like you out there listening also who have synced
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up their books and sign up with Juice Rail going the you as
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well. So let's see if we can get a
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contrarian play to pop for us. Miami, how about you win the
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game outright? But of course, again, some books
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are at 1:00 you can get still get Miami plus 1 1/2.
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So that's what I'm doing. Miami plus 1 1/2.
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Last night of the night, 9:00 we got Oklahoma State visiting
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Arizona State. Now Oklahoma State comes in 16
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and seven on the year. They just saw their two game win
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streak come to an end. However, they lost to Arizona 84
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to 47. Didn't cover as a 20 1/2 point
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Rd. dog. Meanwhile, Arizona State 12:00
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and 12:00 on the year. However, they have dropped three
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of their last four and just came up short against Colorado 78 to
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70. Didn't cover as a 3 1/2 point
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Rd. dog. So what do you see across the
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market? Well, this came open Arizona
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State listed as a 2 1/2 point home favorite.
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And right off the bat, that kind of is interesting to me.
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If Arizona State is a 500 team and Oklahoma State is 16 and
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seven even when you apply homecourt, why is Arizona State
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a 2 1/2 favorite again? Shouldn't this be a pick em?
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Shouldn't Oklahoma State maybe be favored based on the one loss
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records? Well, the public says the wrong
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team is favored. They're running to the window to
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go Cowboys plus the points. It's right now 57% of spread
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bets are going with errors going with Oklahoma State.
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I should say whoever, even though majority tickets are on
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Oklahoma State, we've seen liability toward Arizona State.
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So nearly 60% of bets are going OK State.
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But Arizona State is -2 and half -115 so liability with the juice
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and then also some books. Books have even gotten up to
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three or even touched 3 1/2. So all movement liability has
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been on that Arizona State side. So this looks like a fade the
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trendy dog play to me. Public OK state liability here
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toward Arizona State at circa only 25% bats but 3537% dollars
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on the spread or Oklahoma or sorry Arizona State.
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So a good split in Vegas on the Sun Devils.
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Ken Palm as Arizona State only winning by 183 to 82.
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So I'm going to go money line here.
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I got Sun Devils at -150 that's from the score.
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Again, shop around cuz some books are as high as -160 even
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-170 but I don't want to win by 1 and lose my bet.
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So that's a money line short. Favorite play for me.
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Arizona State does have the better free throw shooting 99th
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versus 146th. They commit less turnovers on
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offense, 124th versus 146th, and they force more turn turnovers
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on defense, 74th versus 155th. Now, Arizona State, six and five
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at home, nothing amazing, but you know, when above 500 at
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home, OK State is only two and four on the road.
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So they've struggled a bit on the road.
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You add it all up again, why is a 12 and 12 team that's lost
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three out of four opening as a favorite and becoming more of a
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favorite against a 16 and 17? Well, tells me smart money here
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is on Arizona State. So I'm going Sun Devils, who by
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the way have an 11% sharp mush edge for our friends at Juice
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Real. I don't know if I mentioned
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this, but Miami has a 21% sharp mush edge at Juice Real.
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Maybe I did, maybe I didn't forgot Nebraska.
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Remember I said this 7% sharp mush edge.
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So that being said, I'm going Sun Devils win the damn game
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-150 on the money line. So Nebraska money line Arizona
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State money line Miami, let's take the 1 1/2.
19:27
So that about does it for episode 451 of the All systems
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Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
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This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
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We always start first by saying thank you.
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Thank you for listening. Thank you for tuning in.
19:40
Thank you for grinding in the arena with me every single day.
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a friend, that would all be fantastic.
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Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting, data-driven,
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sharp contrarian betting, focusing on line movement, bet
20:11
split system matches, taking advantage of, you know,
20:14
discrepancy plays from Ken Palm, making bets with our head and
20:17
not our heart. That's the whole point of this
20:19
podcast. But if you want to learn more
20:21
about data-driven betting, all the things we talked about, you
20:24
want to hold it in your hand, be able to take notes and go back
20:27
to things. Well, you know what you should
20:28
do. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
20:31
NFL sharp betting playbook or the everything guide to sports
20:34
betting. Those are my two books.
20:36
Very proud of both. If you want to grab one or both
20:38
of them, give them a five star review at on Amazon.
20:41
Leave a nice comment if you feel so inclined, and then bring
20:44
those books to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
20:47
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games
20:49
together next. Have you downloaded rhythm in
20:53
Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
20:55
apps Rhythm for their AI back models and predictions for game
20:58
bets and player props. Juice reel so many great
21:01
different features You get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
21:04
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the
21:06
best line features. I forgot to add that Miami we're
21:10
on them plus 1 1/2 tonight. Well that is one of the two best
21:13
bets from Robo Jackson from the Juice Reel app.
21:16
Also if you want to support. The pod.
21:18
I'm going to. I'm going to hit pass the hat
21:21
give you a tip jar here. If you'd like to sport the pod
21:24
for 5 bucks a week, or to be totally specific $4.99 a week,
21:29
you can get the ASG best bets. As soon as I play them, I got my
21:33
book synced up to Juice Reel. I bet them at my book, they go
21:35
right to the Juice Reel app and you can get those plays for
21:38
again $4.99 a week. So less than a dollar a day to
21:42
support the pod. So if you haven't done it yet,
21:45
download rhythm, download juice real, give them a five star
21:48
review in the App Store. Next, do you have a live odds
21:51
page? So important try to explain the
21:53
importance of, you know, pulling a flying history, shopping for
21:56
the best price, finding that best number.
21:58
But really the importance of a live odds page is being tied in,
22:01
you know, to the second updated numbers tracking the whole
22:04
market. That's really a huge key if you
22:07
want to be a data-driven better because that's where a majority
22:09
of our data is coming from. You know, what are the numbers?
22:12
How are they moving? And then how can we decipher
22:14
what those, what those numbers mean?
22:16
So if you don't have a live odds page, you need one.
22:18
If you have one and maybe it's free, but it's slow, it's
22:21
delayed and you have no clue where the, where the books are
22:24
coming from or the date is coming from.
22:25
Or maybe you have a live odds page and you like it, but it's
22:28
really expensive. You know what you should do?
22:30
You should give Odds Logic a shot.
22:32
Go to oddslogic.com/josh 123. That'll give you a 7 day free
22:37
trial 50% off your first month of service.
22:40
So that about does it for episode 451 of the All Systems
22:43
Go Sports Betting podcast on a Tuesday.
22:47
As always, guys leave you with two final thoughts.
22:48
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
22:52
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
22:54
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
22:57
Boston, Plain Ridge Park casino MGM Springfield the Nash in my
23:01
neck of the woods on the border of Massachusetts in Nashville,
23:04
New Hampshire, or out in the desert where the true grinders
23:06
get down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
23:08
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
23:11
Point, wherever it may be. Or of course, jump in the
23:14
stadium swimming pool when he cashed a big ticket at Circa,
23:16
wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
23:18
You're going to show me a Florida A&M obscure sharp added
23:22
game extra game line move. But most of all, don't show me
23:25
Belmont again. I can't believe how do you not
23:27
foul up. 3 Show me a Kansas ticket again.
23:31
Peterson left us high and dry, but the boys battled and came
23:35
through with an outright winner. So it's great to see Kansas come
23:38
through for the team. So show me a Florida A&M ticket,
23:40
a Kansas ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
23:43
you will post about the book. Sweat sharp contrarian plays all
23:46
night long. So as always, guys coming off a
23:48
two and one or A1 and 2A3 and O or an O and three.
23:53
A winning night, a losing night, a hot streak, a cold streak,
23:56
whether we feel like we're on fire and can't miss or cold as
23:58
ice and can't catch a break, again, that's betting.
24:01
There's going to be ups and downs.
24:02
There's going to be good days and bad days, just like in life.
24:04
So we just got to stick with it, play the system matches, be
24:08
disciplined with our bankroll management.
24:09
Flat bet, 3% of our bankroll per play.
24:12
And if we can find those system matches, games that fit our
24:14
model against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat
24:18
bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
24:20
If we can do that, which I'm confident that we can, and guess
24:23
what, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
24:25
So have a great Tuesday night, everybody.
24:27
Let's get a couple winners on the college basketball hard
24:29
court and then we'll be right back at it tomorrow for a little
24:32
hump day edition. That'll be a Wednesday edition,
24:35
Episode 452 of the All Systems Go sports Betting podcast
24:40
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
24:42
great night.