Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 122 - 9/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 122 - 9/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 122 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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week, guys. Only one more day until we get
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football back in our lives. I'm already looking at the
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Patriots and The Jets for tomorrow night as well as South
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Alabama, Appalachian State. Stay tuned.
0:49
I'm going to give you some early thoughts.
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One game, I like the movement, but it's a little public.
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The other game, I love the movement and it's very
0:56
contrarian. So stay tuned for an early look
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ahead for some games for tomorrow.
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Now looking toward today, guys, I am just going to have one bet
1:04
for you. It's going to be a Major League
1:05
Baseball bat, so stay tuned for that.
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And I'll tell you in a second why I am very careful and not
1:11
gonna bang my head against the wall with MLB because I think
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it's hard to bet right now if you have not been betting all
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season long. It's very, very difficult in
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terms of weight down the stretch, a lot of volatility,
1:23
you know, a lot of weird things happening.
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So I do have one baseball bet for you today.
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But then also we're going to do a lot of continued homework and
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continuing to build our portfolio for this upcoming
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weekend for college and NFL. So obviously on the pod, I want
1:38
to not just talk about, you know, the games on the day of
1:40
the game, but talk about them earlier in the week, identify
1:43
some games that catch our eye and then maybe put in a couple
1:46
bets throughout the week and hopefully get good numbers set
1:49
by the time Saturday rolls around for college or Sunday
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rolls around. NFL.
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We already have a couple games in pocket where we have some
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closing line value. So that is the goal.
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So I already had one game in pocket with a bet in the NFLI
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added another one today. I'll tell you what that is.
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And there's several games I'm monitoring right now with some
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very interesting movement as well as another college game
2:09
that I added to the list here. That just happens to be the
2:12
number one contrarian play of the week.
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This dog at home is only getting 13% of spread bets.
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So we'll be talking about it all on today's edition of the All
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Systems Gopod episode 122. One baseball game and a lot of
2:25
legwork, homework, research, whatever you want to call it.
2:28
A lot of updates here with college and pro for this
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weekend. Now looking back toward last
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night, 1 and 3 -, 2.1 units. Now we were able to get a WNBA
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play. It was funny.
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I had some people DM me and say you're really betting WNBA
2:41
again. What is wrong with you?
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Well, I'm glad we did. Got a winner there with the
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Mercury and the Sparks over 163 1/2, landed 167.
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I thought we were in for a lot of trouble in the first quarter
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when they only scored 28 points. The way I look at it is, hey,
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totals around 160. We need at least 40 a quarter.
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I'm like, oh great. I think at one point it was like
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a four to four-game halfway through the first quarter, but
3:02
luckily they turned it on. We're able to cash that over.
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Remember our friends at Rhythm, we're predicting I believe 168.4
3:08
maybe. So they're literally almost
3:10
right on the dot there. So we got a WNBA winner.
3:13
But man, baseball last night was so freaking frustrating.
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The Atlanta Braves jump out to a 5 to one lead, they blow it and
3:21
lose 6:00 to 5:00. So that one hurt.
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The Red Sox had a 2 nothing lead, then a blowing it late
3:26
losing 8 to 3. Guardians threatened multiple
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times come up short against the Twins.
3:30
So overall guys 1 and 3 -, 2.1 units baseball right now.
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I kind of alluded to it to start the pod, but I just feel like
3:38
man, it is just it is hard to cap baseball correctly and you
3:42
see this and really not just all season long.
3:44
I feel like we've had a good year betting baseball, but
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anytime you get to the end of a season, same thing with the the
3:49
early part of a season. Weird things happen,
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unpredictable situations. Last night was brutal and told
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me, hey, maybe it's a good reason why I'm focusing my
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attention more to football and less on baseball.
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So only one baseball game for today, but remember we are going
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to have the playoffs here before you know it and playoffs are a
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great time with betting system matches and going contrarian and
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sharp line move. So if you want to dial it back
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like I'm dialing it back with baseball because last night was
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almost the last straw for me seeing 33 favorites all lose
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with the dogs barking against them.
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Then I think it's not a bad idea again to dial back and get ready
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for the postseason. So for today, 1 baseball game, a
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bunch of college and NFL updates, and I'll also mention
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tonight one reason why I decided not to force too many baseball
4:36
bats because it's really only baseball today, is that I'm
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going to Post Malone at Fenway Park tonight.
4:41
That's right, I'm a huge Post Malone fan.
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I'm not a big country fan, but I got to admit he just released
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his country album and I love every single song on the album.
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So it's my first concert at Fenway Park.
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I've been meaning to see a concert at Fenway.
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We'll be driving in for Post Malone, me and me and the wifey
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probably going to get some food around, maybe game on or cask
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and flag in or maybe the maybe the Bleacher bar.
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But I'm very much looking forward to seeing Post Malone at
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Fenway tonight. So if you're in Boston, you're
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like me and a lot of people go on the show.
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If you're around, maybe, yeah, maybe you can, I don't know, see
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me on, DM me on Twitter and maybe we'll get a beer together.
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But any Post Malone fans out there, I know you're jealous.
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I'm seeing them tonight at Fenway.
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With that being said, let's get into our sweats here for today,
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guys. Only one of them.
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But this is a game that really, it was screaming at me not only
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to cash our win total, maybe it's win total Wednesday, but
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just a sharp early bet that I wanted to mention.
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The only one I'll be sweating today and then we'll get all to
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all of our football breakdowns here.
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But you guys know who it is, The Snakes, the Arizona Cardinals,
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sorry, not the Cardinals, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
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They have been sitting on 83 wins for a little bit here.
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They remember we played him in the first game of the series.
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They lost three to two. I didn't play him last night.
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They lost 8:00 to 2:00. So this is the final game of the
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series. They're maybe going to get swept
6:01
here against Colorado, who's a terrible team, but I don't think
6:04
so. I'm going to play them to win
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today. I got them at -165 on the money
6:08
line and I'm going to hope that we double up here with a win for
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today and a win for the over 83 and half win total.
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But anyway, of all the games say, why did I pick this one?
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Well, good sharp steam move. Let's talk 1st about the
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pitching matchup. We have a couple lefties on the
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bump. It's important because we'll get
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to it here in a second in terms of how both these teams hit
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lefties, Big advantage to the snakes, but Arizona is going to
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go with Eduardo Rodriguez. Two and three, 5.5 O ERA started
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great, hasn't been as good recently.
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He'll be opposed by Austin Gomber, who's 5 and 10 with a
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4.44 ERA. What are we seeing across the
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market, though? I want to mention first, this is
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a 3:10 PM Eastern Time first pitch, so I'm going to try to
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get the pot out little bit earlier today.
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So if you want to play this one again, it's an early game, but
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anyway, first thing I noticed is a good sharp line move toward
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the snakes. Arizona open this game as low as
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-140 -, 150. They're all the way up to -165 S
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pretty much overnight movement, early morning, early afternoon,
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all movement in favor of Arizona with no buyback whatsoever.
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A lot of great system matches here.
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First, the bet splits jumped out to me.
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Only 77% of bets, but nearly 90% of money is on Arizona.
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So both the pro and Joe play here.
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But again, I don't know how much betting public is is you know
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Joe betters are betting MLB right now.
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But anyway, I got 7 system matches on Colorado.
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Favored off a loss, first opponent off a win. 60% this
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year, 3% ROI Rd. favorite with steam playing a team who missed
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the postseason the previous year, 68 percent, 13% ROI Rd.
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favorites off a loss 57% Rd. favorites with steam 63%.
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And I have another system called the best chalk teams.
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So if you look at teams who are favored, this was another one
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that was frustrating yesterday because the Cleveland Guardians
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were the number one team in terms of chalk coming through
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for you and they lost for us last night.
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But Arizona is 50 and 29 as a favorite.
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That is the 4th best chalk team in baseball, 64% with an 8% ROI.
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They're even better against teams below 500 as well as
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coming off a loss. It's another angle here to play
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Arizona. But aside from the system
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matches, the line move, the bet splits, I'm really going to bank
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on hopefully the offense of Arizona showing up today hasn't
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shown up so far this series. They've only scored what, four
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runs at Mile High, which is definitely not what you would
8:26
expect. But hopefully they they wake up
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today. They're hitting 264 on the year,
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194 homers, 826 runs scored. Colorado's only hitting 242 with
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169 homers, 641 runs scored. Arizona again, even though
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they're down O2 in the series, they are pretty good on the
8:43
road. 41 and 35. Colorado just 36 and 38 at home.
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Arizona is 8 and four head to head against Colorado and
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mentioned this a second ago, but two lefties on the bump.
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We've talked about this quite a bit throughout the season.
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It's pretty much stayed true. But the Diamondbacks are the
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number one team in baseball batting average wise.
9:02
Against lefties, they're hitting 284.
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Best in baseball, Colorado is hit is hitting 236.
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Against lefties, that's 20th, but also if you go to ESPN and
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you go to the kind of just the game matchup tab, once they
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release the lineup, still show the lineups, then you can click
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either season or career versus the pitcher.
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And I just noticed real quick that Colorado, like none of
9:24
these guys have ever faced Eduardo Rodriguez.
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But Arizona, you have a ton of familiarity in a ton of it bats.
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Everyone in the lineup has faced Gomber quite a bit, guys like
9:33
Corbin Carroll, Katel Marte, Christian Walker, you know,
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Perdomo McCarthy, Moreno Suarez, I mean they've really faced
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Gomber a lot and have really lit him up historically.
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So hopefully that's a benefit to the Arizona snakes here today.
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Maybe partly why you're seeing that big steam in their favor.
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But add it all up guys. Maybe it's win total Wednesday.
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Wouldn't that be nice? Let's see if Arizona can get a
9:55
win for us today and cash that over 83 1/2.
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I am on the snakes today at -165.
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Now over to the NFLI. Want to give you some updates.
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To me, one of the my favorite parts of the NFL is the routine
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of it. Obviously Sundays are the days
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you sweat. I love the obvious prime time
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games on Monday or Thursday or Sunday night.
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But I really kind of love the routine and the rhythm of
10:20
basically tracking games and, you know, throughout the week,
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trying to identify sharp action and then deciding, hey, you
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know, when should I place my bet?
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So here's a few games that I wanted to mention.
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Now, I already bet Arizona +3. This is a game we talked about
10:35
yesterday, but I love this spot for the Arizona Cardinals.
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This game opened Detroit at Arizona.
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Detroit was as high as -4 1/2. The line is down to three.
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So the lines moved in favor of Arizona and the Cardinals are
10:48
only getting across the market. Great contrarian bet split.
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Not crazy contrarian. It's more 5050, but 5050 line
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move. They're only getting 47% of
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bets, yet the line is really moved in their favor.
11:01
And in addition to that, the fact that you are looking at a
11:04
great spot with Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray has a dog 26 and 14
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against the spread, 65%. But the reason why I bet it
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yesterday and why I think if you want to play it, you should bet
11:14
it now is paying attention to the juice.
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Arizona right now is +3 at -115 -, 120 and make it down to 2
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1/2. So if you're conscious of key
11:23
numbers, which you always should be when you're betting football
11:26
in general, pro or college, you got to get that three before it
11:29
falls that way. Hopefully, if they end up losing
11:32
by three, you push instead of lose your bet.
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So I'm already in pocket officially on Arizona +3.
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Now, another one that I added today as an official best bet is
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I took the 3 1/2 with Atlanta. Now, we talked yesterday how the
11:46
Atlanta Falcons were super sharp because this is a big public
11:50
play toward the Kansas City Chiefs.
11:51
The Chiefs are getting across the market, 79% of bets yet
11:56
Chiefs open -4 1/2, they're down to 3 1/2.
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And we talked on yesterday's pod, Hey, you know, we've
12:01
identified Atlanta being super sharp.
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They're only getting 21% of spread bets, similar spot to the
12:07
16% that they got against the Eagles.
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But it's a prime time game. They're super contrarian, the
12:12
lines moving in their favor automatically.
12:15
I said, hey, we're going to be on Atlanta here.
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However we talked yesterday, it was -3 1/2 KC or plus 3 1/2
12:21
Atlanta, doesn't matter either way you look at it.
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But it was -110 both sides. So I said, hey, it's moved
12:27
already toward Atlanta. There's no need to bet it right
12:29
now. This is me yesterday because
12:31
we're -110 Juice. Well, guess what, guys?
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I'm seeing the juice rise toward Atlanta.
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So a lot of books are now basically Kansas City -3 1/2 at
12:41
minus one O 5. Now Atlanta's being juiced up
12:44
plus 3 1/2 at -115 so I officially bet today.
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Atlanta plus 3 1/2. Now shop around because I was
12:52
able to get a book with Atlanta plus 3 1/2 still at -110 but the
12:56
fact that Atlanta is getting juiced up tells me this may be
12:59
getting down to three. So if you like Atlanta, you
13:02
should bet it right now. And that's what I did.
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Because again, if they lose by three, most common key, key, key
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number and margin of victory, we want to cash with the hook.
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Can't can't tell you how important the hooks are.
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So I'm officially on Atlanta plus 3 1/2 as well as Arizona
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+3. Now those are the two games I
13:18
have in pocket. Let me give you a few more than
13:20
a monitoring. Some we talked about before,
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some are new. One is the New Orleans Saints.
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Now I immediately saw a move toward the New Orleans Saints.
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They opened up like -1 at home. Some books were even a look at
13:34
line of like -3 Philly on the road be kind of reopened very
13:37
short toward New Orleans around a one point favorite at home.
13:43
We immediately saw New Orleans get bet up to -2 1/2.
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And now New Orleans may even be going to -3 So I immediately saw
13:51
the fact that hey, lines going to the Saints.
13:54
Now the Saints have looked really good so far to start the
13:55
year. Their offense is clicking at a
13:57
ridiculous level. I love the line move toward the
14:00
Saints. My only worry is that they're
14:02
getting 70% of spread bets. So in football, I want to be,
14:05
you know, on the 30% side, not the 70% side, but this might be
14:09
pro and Joe because it's 70% Saints, but 80% money on the
14:14
Saints now. No A.J.
14:15
Brown for Philly. We also have Philly on a short
14:18
week, having played on Monday. I do like the fact that New
14:22
Orleans is a short favorite in a high total game.
14:25
So total this one is 4949 1/2. Remember high totals when you're
14:30
looking at football to me are close to 50.
14:32
Low totals are close to 40, but short favorite with a high
14:36
total. Basically that's an that's a
14:38
correlative betting advantage to the favorite because it's easier
14:42
to cover the number when more expected points are scored.
14:44
You also look at New Orleans as a non division favorite.
14:47
So lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
14:49
better team. So Long story short, I am
14:51
leaning toward the Saints. Again.
14:53
I hate that they're getting 70% of bets, but they look sharp as
14:56
well and you have some good system matches.
14:59
Saints on the money line -145 that's one that I'm leaning
15:02
pretty hard on right now. Let's see how that develops.
15:05
Let's see if there's any buyback closer to Sunday.
15:08
Also mentioned the Tennessee or did I mention Tennessee?
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This is one that I noticed now. Something literally changed
15:16
right after I wrote the sharp report for visa.com.
15:18
So if you look at this game, Green Bay at Tennessee, Green
15:22
Bay's one and one they won with Malik Willis last week.
15:25
Tennessee is O and two, I bet them both weeks and they were
15:27
close and then either coughed it up or blew it late.
15:30
So I'm mad at Tennessee right now.
15:32
But Tennessee looks sharp, guys. I got to admit, the Titans open
15:35
this game as a very short 1 1/2 point home favorite.
15:39
Titans are now up to -2 1/2 - 3. And why is that important?
15:42
Because everyone's betting Green Bay.
15:44
I get it, Titans look bad. Green Bay won with Malik Willis.
15:48
Currently you're getting 70% of bets on Green Bay in the points.
15:53
But the lines going to Tennessee -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2 - 3.
15:57
So why is line going to Tennessee if everyone's betting
15:59
Green Bay? It sounds crazy, but it looks to
16:02
me like Sharpshaw in Tennessee here.
16:04
Fading a trendy dog. Tennessee's only getting 30% of
16:08
bets but 60% of money. A great low bets, high dollars
16:11
bet split. Here's a nugget for you.
16:13
A betting system. If you're an O and two team in
16:15
week 3, you are 38 and 22 against the spread. 63% with a
16:21
23% ROI since 2017. Now, right before I started the
16:26
pod, I did see a tweet that Jordan Love is was practicing
16:30
today. I'd be surprised if he played.
16:33
I saw him, he was practicing, but he was limping pretty hard
16:36
after getting hit late in the ankle or leg or knee.
16:40
He was an ankle against the end of the Eagles game in Brazil.
16:44
But Tennessee was -3 News that Jordan Love is practicing.
16:48
They are down to 2 1/2 so let's see the next move.
16:51
Does it get down to two? I mean if Jordan Love plays,
16:53
obviously he's going to get back down toward to pick em.
16:55
But as long as Jordan Love doesn't play and we stay
16:58
similar. Tennessee -2 1/2 around there.
17:02
I'll have to hold my nose and go Tennessee here.
17:04
But again, let's wait on Jordan Love status.
17:07
Another game that caught my eye. The Rams.
17:10
Anyone got the the Stones, the cojones to take the Rams?
17:14
They look bad. Oh, and two to start the year,
17:16
but it's a big number at home in a divisional game.
17:19
They are at home against the 49ers.
17:22
We open this game around 49ers minus.
17:26
I mean, the look at on this line was was pretty short.
17:29
It was closer to like 3 or 4. But basically we kind of
17:33
reopened San Fran around a 7 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
17:37
And some of these seven and a halfs are getting down to 7.
17:39
And that's notable because no one wants to bet the Rams.
17:42
You're getting only around 30% of bets on the Rams, yet they
17:46
just fell +7 and half down to seven.
17:49
Now one thing I like about the Rams in the spot is a betting
17:52
system. Play winless teams in Week 3
17:56
just mentioned this. It would match with we just
17:58
talked about the the Titans 63% dogs getting 6 and half or more.
18:04
Did you guys know? They're 8 and against the spread
18:06
so far to start this year. They're 58% ATS since 2022.
18:10
But in particular, divisional dogs, you've obviously, if you
18:13
haven't heard about it, I'm sure you have, But McVeigh, Shanahan,
18:16
they go way back. Usually they play each other,
18:18
you know, pretty tight. But if you look at the Rams in
18:22
the spot getting 7 1/2, I'm intrigued by Ram 7 1/2, I guess.
18:26
I guess that's what I'm getting at.
18:28
You should have A7F still available.
18:30
You could also wait this out because a lot of minus sevens
18:33
are juiced up -7 -, 115. But also seeing friends got a
18:37
lot of injuries, guys, Debo Samuels hurt, Mccaffrey's hurt.
18:41
You know, is this a 7 point win where you can cover in the
18:44
division with the hook on the Rams?
18:45
I I'm intrigued by the Rams. Keep an eye on them.
18:48
Also mentioned yesterday, Miami, Miami's interesting because it
18:52
looks like Skylar Thompson is going to get the start.
18:54
I know they I think they picked up Tyler Huntley on waivers or
18:58
from a practice squad. But anyway, Seattle coming off a
19:01
big win against my Patriots, even though luckily Patriots
19:03
covered with the hook. Miami coming off a bad loss
19:06
obviously to to the Bills and two is now hurt.
19:11
But this game open Seattle like -6 1/2 at home.
19:14
Now it's down to -4 1/2 and that's important because only
19:18
38% of bets are taking Miami. Yet the lines going in their
19:21
favor. Now they're getting more than
19:22
50% of spread bets. But you also have a rest
19:25
advantage. Miami last played on Thursday
19:27
Rd. Dogs this year, 61% against the
19:30
spread. Miami looks pretty sharp.
19:32
And if you want to tease them up, 4 1/2 up to 10 1/2.
19:35
Not a bad teaser play there. Minnesota Vikings.
19:40
Love the Vikings. They're just a monitor for me
19:42
now because I missed the three. Minnesota at home, they open
19:45
getting 3 1/2 or even as high as plus 4 1/2.
19:48
Now they are down to 2 1/2. So you've gone through the
19:51
three, may even be getting down to two, like 2 1/2 might be the
19:55
best number you get. You want to tease up Minnesota 2
19:58
1/2 up to 8 1/2 could be a great play there.
20:01
Two undefeated teams take the home dog 69% against the spread.
20:04
That would match with Minnesota. So I'm looking at Minnesota
20:07
pretty hard here. But again, I feel like at 2 1/2,
20:10
I'm kind of in no man's land, so let's see if maybe this thing
20:13
creeps back up to three. If not, I'll take the points.
20:16
But Minnesota is definitely sharp as well.
20:20
So I got Arizona plus 3 already in pocket officially Atlanta
20:23
plus 3 1/2. I'm monitoring the Saints,
20:26
Tennessee, the Rams, Miami, and Minnesota now.
20:29
Quick comment on the Patriots game for tomorrow because this
20:32
one is interesting for me. If you throw away the bet
20:36
percentages, the Patriots look like the play Patriots open on
20:40
the road getting 7 or 6 1/2. I noticed today that a lot of
20:45
these books are down to six. So the lines going toward the
20:47
Patriots now, dogs getting 6 1/2 or more, 58% against the spread
20:52
this year. Patriots are primetime dog,
20:55
Patriots are Rd. dog. Patriots are divisional dog,
20:58
their dog in a low total game. I mean, there's a lot to like
21:01
about New England from a line move and betting system
21:03
standpoint. Getting the points here.
21:06
My only thing that's tripping me up is that the Patriots are a
21:09
bit of a trendy dog. They're getting 60% of spread
21:13
bets, which worries me. Like if New England's getting
21:16
30% of spread bets and they had these system matches and the
21:19
line move in their favor, you know, no questions asked, I'm on
21:21
Patriots. I don't like that they're the
21:23
public play 60% in a prime time game.
21:26
So I'm going to give it another day.
21:28
Again, let's see if there's any buyback.
21:29
Let's see if that's 60% tomorrow gets closer to, you know, 5050
21:33
bet split. I'd love to see the public start
21:36
to bet The Jets and not make the Patriots so trendy.
21:38
But I must admit line is going to the Pats.
21:42
The total is intriguing to me as well because it looks like a
21:44
deadbeat under, you know, open as high as 40 ish.
21:48
It's down to 38 1/2. If you've seen, aside from the
21:53
drop, a lot of system matches here you have divisional unders.
21:57
Outdoor divisional unders are three and O so far this year,
22:00
56% since 2021. When the total falls at least a
22:04
point or half point, the under is 57% since 2021.
22:08
Divisional unders that drop prime time unders are 60%.
22:12
In terms of the weather, shouldn't be too bad.
22:15
Mostly cloudy, about 70°, seven mile per hour winds.
22:19
John Hussey though is a really good under F so I'm leaning
22:23
under as well. But again, I'm I don't like the
22:25
fact that the under is a trendy under right now.
22:28
You're getting 57% of bets on the under, around 62% of
22:32
dollars. So it looks like New England.
22:34
It looks like the under. The only reason I haven't bet it
22:37
yet is both New England and the under are the public side.
22:40
So let's wait that out. Just wanted to give you at least
22:43
my initial thoughts for that game.
22:45
I wanted to mention now some college games that caught my
22:47
eye. Let's start with tomorrow, South
22:49
Alabama and Appalachian State. This one probably not on your
22:54
radar, but obviously it's the only game tomorrow night, so
22:56
it's going to be extremely heavily bet, but I'm leaning
22:59
pretty hard on South Alabama in the points.
23:02
Now, if you haven't kind of come across this game yet, you open
23:07
this game around App State, around favorite around -7 Now
23:12
App State got as high as -8 now it's down to 7 1/2 or even down
23:16
to seven. Now, why is that notable?
23:19
Because App State is the big public play.
23:21
App State is getting 67% of spread bets.
23:25
So if App State's getting all the bets in a heavily bet
23:27
primetime game, 7:30 tomorrow night, you know, why is the line
23:31
coming back towards South Alabama?
23:33
South Alabama has a great bet split.
23:34
They're only getting 33% of bets, but 55% of the money.
23:39
So Long story short, I'm keeping my eye here on South Alabama and
23:44
ideally South Alabama at +7 and a half.
23:46
A lot of those seven halves are down to seven.
23:49
But a lot of sevens are juiced up toward App State, like it may
23:51
go back to 7 1/2. So again, maybe we can wait it
23:54
out, but early, early lean here for me is South Alabama and the
23:57
points. But again, just like the
23:59
Patriots game, let's give it a day.
24:01
I'll give you my official bets for tomorrow.
24:04
A couple other games and college football that caught my eye.
24:07
Some we talked about, some are new.
24:09
Now the new one here that jumped out to me, Oh my God, I could
24:13
not believe this bet split Tennessee at Oklahoma.
24:17
Now this is the 7:30 PM at night primetime game on Saturday and
24:23
you have Tennessee coming in three and O rank 6 in the
24:26
country. Oklahoma is also three and O
24:28
rank 15th. But no one wants to play
24:31
Oklahoma. Everybody and I mean everybody
24:33
is on Tennessee. Tennessee currently is getting
24:36
87% of spread bets. Now right off the bat,
24:41
automatically, without even talking about the actual spread
24:43
number, without talking about the line, you know, 87% one side
24:47
and a spread sport like football, primetime, heavily
24:50
bet, public sport, 13 percent is the side that I want to be on.
24:54
However, it's not just a contrarian play.
24:57
It's kind of a little bit sharp. You open this game around -7 for
25:03
Tennessee. Tennessee got up as high as I
25:06
want to say -7 half -8 but now a lot of these 7 1/2's are coming
25:10
back down to seven. So the Lions kind of coming back
25:14
toward Oklahoma, even though they're only getting 13% of
25:17
spread bets and most heavily back game of the night.
25:20
So I'm looking at possibly taking the points with Oklahoma.
25:24
I got to get the hook there. No reason to bet it right now
25:27
because there are some 7 1/2's, but also a lot all the sevens
25:30
mostly I really juiced up toward Tennessee.
25:32
Like it may go back to 7 1/2, but if you're giving me kind of
25:36
a line freeze, a little bit of reverse line move, buy back most
25:39
heavily back game of the night prime time.
25:41
Everyone, literally everyone. Not literally that would be
25:44
100%, but almost everyone 87% are on Tennessee.
25:48
Guys, I'm looking at going Oklahoma, either taking the hook
25:51
now 7 1/2 or waiting if it if it creeps back up.
25:54
But I am digging Oklahoma there as the ultimate contrarian play
25:58
of the weekend. Now USC, Michigan, I will be on
26:01
Michigan here. This game opened as high as I
26:06
think it was -6 for USC, 6 1/2. It's down to 5 1/2.
26:11
You're kind of in no man's land, even though the public is all
26:14
over USC, Michigan across the board, I think.
26:17
Let me double check, just give you the updated number here.
26:22
Michigan is getting, let's see, they're getting 17% of spread
26:29
bets. So no one wants to play
26:30
Michigan. So, yeah, it's still a very,
26:32
very contrarian play. I'm just holding out for the
26:37
six. No man's land, 5 1/2.
26:39
Can we get a six right now? You have -110 both sides at most
26:42
shops. I'm going to hold out for a six.
26:44
If not, I'll take 5 1/2. But Michigan still on my radar.
26:47
Arizona State, Texas Tech. I really like this angle toward
26:50
Arizona State. We mentioned this one yesterday.
26:53
We open this game. Texas Tech -3 1/2.
26:56
It's down to three. Arizona State only getting 30%
27:00
of bets. Good sharp reverse line move dog
27:02
who can score offense, short Rd. dog, four or less system match.
27:06
Problem is you need the hook. Now.
27:08
A lot of these books are -3 -, 115 toward Texas Tech.
27:11
So I think if we wait, you might be able to get the 3 1/2.
27:15
You might, if you want, you could buy it up because you are
27:17
a juice down toward Arizona State +3 at minus one O 5.
27:20
You could take it up by the half point to 3 1/2 at like -120 but
27:25
let's wait that thing out. We might naturally get the hook
27:27
there. A couple more that I wanted to
27:29
mention. BYU, man, we nailed BYU
27:33
yesterday. I'm kicking myself a little bit
27:35
for not being heavier on playing it yesterday because the line
27:38
move further toward BYU. Now BYU is at home against
27:42
Kansas State. It's the 1030 game, the late
27:45
night game. Everybody is on K State 77%.
27:49
AK State opened laying 7 even 7 1/2.
27:53
Yesterday we talked about as a line freeze type play looking
27:56
like it would be 7 half down to seven.
27:59
Well, I woke up today and I was happy to see it's down to 6 1/2.
28:03
Tells us that we're on the right side with BYU lines going in
28:05
their favor. Despite being super contrarian,
28:07
I don't love the fact that I personally missed the seven, so
28:11
I'm going to wait it out. Let's see if it comes back.
28:15
Right now you are juiced up a little bit toward K State minus
28:17
6 1/2 -115. But I'm I got greedy yesterday
28:22
saying, hey, it's seven, can I get a 7 1/2?
28:24
Well, sometimes this happens. You get greedy and now it's
28:27
falling even further. Gift and a curse.
28:28
Good thing it's going to the sharp side.
28:30
BYU. Not great that like me, you
28:33
might have missed the number. So let's wait that thing out.
28:35
Maybe it goes back to seven. If not, I'll be taking 6 1/2
28:38
with BYU and then also Arkansas and Auburn.
28:42
Looking toward Arkansas here. I don't know if we're going to
28:45
get the hook, which is again, why I'm monitoring this one
28:48
right now. But Arkansas 60% bets, 76%
28:52
dollars. Don't love that it's public, but
28:54
it is low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
28:56
But this game open Auburn -4 even 4 1/2.
29:01
Now it's down to three. And again, doesn't look like
29:04
it's going to go either way as of right now -110 both sides.
29:07
But I'm going to hold out for Arkansas with the hook with the
29:10
plus 3 1/2. But again, really that Oklahoma
29:13
game is the one that I I was excited to to share with you
29:16
guys because man, that's right up my alley has a sharp
29:19
contrarian buy back line freezer RLM play.
29:22
I'll be that about dozen guys. I know we only had one official
29:25
bet snakes afternoon sweat, but hopefully you enjoyed some of
29:28
those updates in the NFL and college football and I think
29:31
that's what you can expect throughout the football season
29:33
on the pod. Obviously we get excited for
29:36
games that day, but you got to put in the work throughout the
29:39
week and identify sharp games, hopefully get good numbers
29:42
before they move. And we did a lot of that today.
29:44
So that was a good thing. But anyway, now that the pod is
29:47
done, I'm going to leave you with a few things always mention
29:50
right off the bat toward the tail and when we wrap things up.
29:54
If you enjoy this podcast, if you enjoy listening to it each
29:57
day, if you look forward to it dropping each day, you are now
30:01
intrigued by the data-driven, sharp contrarian approach.
30:04
You never even knew this was an option for you in terms of
30:06
betting on sports, but now you like it.
30:08
Looking at line movement system matches, bet splits, going
30:11
contrarian, identifying sharp action, whether it's flat
30:15
bedding or not, parlaying again, the little Nuggets we we put out
30:19
each day. If this style of betting appeals
30:20
to you and you want to learn more, our first I should say
30:23
this. If you enjoy the pod and want to
30:25
help me grow the pod, please give it a five star review on
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Spotify or iTunes. Five stars would go a long way
30:31
to helping us rise up the ranks and gain more credibility and
30:34
more, more listens. Going to recommend it to a
30:36
friend or click the follow button.
30:37
That would be great as well. But please, please give the pot
30:40
of five star review. I would really appreciate that.
30:43
And then as I was getting and mentioning and about to say, if
30:46
you enjoy the style of betting and you want to learn more about
30:49
data-driven betting, go buy my book.
30:51
I wrote a book. That's right, I'm an author.
30:53
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
30:56
betting. Pick up a copy for you or for a
30:58
friend or that buddy of yours who parlays everything and never
31:01
wins. But it's got everything I've
31:03
learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
31:05
they win or how, how and why they move, how to read line
31:08
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
31:10
person or online, how to go contrarian.
31:12
Boom. All included in the everything
31:14
guide to sports betting. So make me happy.
31:16
Support the team, learn more on your end, gain some more
31:18
knowledge, gift it to a buddy or relative or friend or colleague.
31:22
The everything guide to sports betting.
31:24
So when I see at the book, bring my book to the book, I'll sign
31:27
it for you. I'll give you my John Hancock
31:29
and then we'll sweat some games together.
31:31
Of course, if you haven't done it yet, I highly recommend
31:35
downloading and starting a 7 day free trial of both Rhythm and
31:38
Juice Reel to my favorite sports betting apps on the market
31:41
because they're all about betting with your head and not
31:44
your heart. Data data data with Rhythm
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obviously setting great AI predictions and models for both
31:50
game bets as well as player props.
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And then Juice Reel fantastic for their Robo Jackson best bet
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picks that come out at noon each day.
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Sharp mush opportunities, arbitrage plays as well as
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syncing up your sports books, linking them up and getting a
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running report card of your action.
32:07
But both can be downloaded very easily onto your smartphone just
32:12
by clicking the custom links that are located in the bio
32:14
description of this podcast. So on Spotify or iTunes, it will
32:17
give you a description of each pod.
32:19
Today's will be Hey, Josh gives out one MLB best bet plus a ton
32:24
of college and NFL thoughts. Scroll down below that there's
32:26
going to be links for juice real and rhythm.
32:28
So clicked out those links then you'll be ready to go and that
32:32
both help me win. They'll help you win.
32:34
So go sign up and become a rhythm and Juice real
32:36
subscriber. That about does it everybody.
32:38
Another pot here in the books, whether I see you at the Borgata
32:42
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
32:44
Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
32:47
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
32:50
in my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
32:53
They're out in the desert where the true grinders get down where
32:55
Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest shoe as
32:58
possible is found at the South Point or sweating sharp
33:00
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
33:03
When you're able to cash a big ticket at Circa wherever it may
33:06
be, you're going to walk up to me.
33:07
Those MLB games were complete trash last night.
33:10
You can show me a Mercury Sparks over 163 1/2 ticket.
33:15
Got it. Got a nice hit there.
33:16
Let's see if we can get our revenge in baseball here for
33:18
today. So that about does it everybody
33:20
again have a great Wednesday night.
33:23
It gets fun and crazy and busy again tomorrow with Thursday
33:26
Night Football. But I wish you the best of luck
33:29
and I'll always leave leave you with this.
33:31
Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
33:34
yourself on the side of the house.
33:35
Always be with the smart money. Never against it.
33:38
Will smart money when every time, of course not.
33:40
We beat the closing line on all three baseball games last night
33:44
with the sharp line move. What happened?
33:46
We lost all three. Unfortunately, that's going to
33:48
happen sometimes. But here's the thing.
33:50
Don't be kind of misguided into thinking A1 night sample.
33:54
It defines you. It doesn't.
33:56
If we can do this consistently long term, that with our head
33:59
and not our heart against the public, with the house, with the
34:02
pros flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
34:05
If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
34:07
sports bettors. So have a great night,
34:09
everybody. I'm very much looking forward to
34:13
submitting this pod and then hopping in the car going down to
34:15
Boston. Me and the wifey, we're going to
34:18
see Post Malone and I'm very excited about this at Fenway
34:21
Park tonight. Who knows, check my Twitter,
34:23
maybe you'll see me tweet a video of Posty tonight.
34:27
But have a great night everybody.
34:28
We'll be back at it tomorrow for a big Thirsty Thursday edition,
34:31
episode 123 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
34:35
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
34:38
great night.