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Hormuz; AI regs; Opioids; Alberta; Germany; India; Ukraine; Pensions; Cancer | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: I'll go and this is alright, everybody, welcome to here.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: One book show on this uh Tuesday. Me fifth is
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: actually my uh last day of teaching at the University
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: of Austin, Texas. Uh capitalism course. I'll uh be done. Uh.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I do that later today and tomorrow I give them
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: the final exam. We'll see how well they do on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: my final I've got three questions. They get to choose
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: uh to answer two of the three questions. If somebody
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: ask me in the super chat, I'll tell you what
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: the questions are. So uh, alright, let's see.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Whoops, what does that say?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: All right? They give me a weird answer on second?
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: All right, that works, all right. Let's see. Uh today,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: let's start as we do with who would have known
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: the straits of Homoes are this importance and that so
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: much focus would be put on them? Await I knew,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: we knew, all right, you guys knew. So yeah. Today
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: there was a briefing by General Caine by Secretary hegg Seth.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: They articulated and explained the fact that US destroyers yesterday
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: as they passed through the streets from Ones were attacked many,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: many times by the Ranians. Significant attacks against American the
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: American destroyers. None of the projectiles launched at the destroyers hit.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Destroyers have pretty good defense systems. Also destroyed seven Uranian boats.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: We talked about this yesterday. They also identify recognize the
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: fact that the Iranians attacked the UEE with the ballistic
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: missiles and drones. Almost all of those were shut down
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: except the one that hits the all facility. And yet
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: the conclusion that they came to is you aon has
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: not yet crushed the threshold that justifies the United States
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: ending the ceasefire and actually engaging militarily, re engaging military
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: with you on. I don't get it. Do you guys
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: get it? What is that threshold? How would we get
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: to that threshold? What is that? You know? This was
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: below the threshold. I guess an American soldier has to die,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: you know, civilians, and you know, I don't know. I
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: don't know what the threshold is. I'm not seeing any
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: real reports about so you and as violin and cease fire.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Clearly it didn't open the strets of hormoes. It's attacking
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: American ships, it's launching an American destroyers. Donald Trump said,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: if you launch a house will eradicate, you, will eliminate, you,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: will crush you, nothing, zero, nada, zilch. And it doesn't
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: meet the threshold because I think Trump said it the
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: other day, he said, like, well, none of the missiles
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: had So it's not intent that matters. It's not the
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: risk placed on American soldiers that matters. If you can't,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: if you don't actually literally kill an American, you're fine.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: You can do whatever you want. In the meantime, it's
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: not clear how many ships are actually clearing the straits
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: of hormoes as a consequence of Operation Freedom. We know
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: that two American flagships exited yesterday, but again, the normal
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: volume of ships entering and exiting the straits of forms
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: is something like one hundred and thirty a day. So
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: it's not going to be resumed. Is there any chance
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: of that? When will that happen? Is the United States
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: trying to do that? What is the goal? What is
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: the effort? It's very very I mean, we've got no information. Now. Again,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: it could very well be that they are planning something
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: and they just need more time to plan it. It
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: could be that all of this is just buying time,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: but I'm not sure what they'd been doing for the
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: last two weeks of the ceasefire. If not planning for
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: what would happen if the seafire doesn't last. If they're
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: not being planning for the opening of the Homeot Straits,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: what have they been doing? I mean, again, this was
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: should it be done Day one of the war, American
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: warships in the Persian Gulf defending the you know, the
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: straits and the free the passage of ships. Maybe you say, well,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: they won. Would have been hard because there was still
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: an Iranian navy which could constitute a threat. Now really,
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I mean the Iranian navy was eradicated in the days
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: after that without really any threat to Americans. I don't
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: see what. Yes, they would have had a lot of
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: small boats, but it seems like the American destroyers and
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: American Air Force. And by the way, the two destroyers
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: that went in were accompanied by Pachi helicopters. Maybe those
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: eight ten wood hogs were also with them. You know,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but you can imagine Apache helicopters, woodhogs
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: and navy vessels. It would be very difficult through the
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Uanians to do anything to American ships. Maybe you spent
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: two or three days bombing the shores and eradicating their capacity.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Maybe then needed to be done. Maybe it wasn't the
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: first day, maybe the third day, maybe the sixth day,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: maybe the eighth day. You know, I don't know. The
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Navy again has plans, it just needs to execute on them.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: But now it's two months and it's actually what they're
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: doing and whether they're doing enough, And it doesn't seem
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: like there is a robust flow of ships out of
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: the straits of Homemoes. The blockade of Iranian ships continues,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: and then they're still turning away, turning back ships that
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: are trying to exit, and they're turning the back, but
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: no opening of the Homo Straits. And yet it's clear
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: at this point that there is no victory in this
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: war without the opening of the Homo Straits. The almost
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: straits staying closed will represent will represent a defeat for
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: the United States, and the whole world will see it.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: I mean right now, basically, the United States has two
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: options options stabilize the Homo Straits and open up it,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: open it up for shipping, or fail doing so, and
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: you know that means humiliation. Uh if Iran emboldened to
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: close the Homo States whenever they want. China emboldened because
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: the US won't actually step up. Who knows who else
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: is in bolden out in the world to obstruct the
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: shipping lanes. I mean, there is no option at this
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: point but to escalate. But to escalate, everything should be
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: focused on and I've said this for weeks now, everything
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: should be focused on opening those straits, no matter what,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: not under Iran terms, not through negotiations. Negotiations give Iran
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: all the cards. Negotiations emboldened the radiance. The Straits must
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: be opened by brute force, American force. There's no alternative.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: And if Trump is not willing to do that, then
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: he's basically given the Iranians a massive strategic advantage moving
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: into the future. I don't think I don't think opening
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: the Straits requires a conventional ground war. It might mean
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: putting boots on the ground in terms of taking some
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: territory on the islands, but it's not clear, you know,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: And I will say General Kine today in the in
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: the conference, in the press conference, did highlight the role
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: the existence or the presence of the eighty second airbort
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Division in the theater of action in the Middle East.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: The eighty two. Abbone division would be you know, ideal
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: for taking those islands together with the you know, with
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: the Marine Corps and their ability to come in from
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: the from the from the sea. You could see the
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: US taking a few of those islands and basically taking
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: over the Persian Gulf and opening it up as a
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: consequence to shipping. But it's uh, yeah, this is it.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: It's now and ever, I don't know exactly what they're
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: waiting for. There's rumors, particularly in Israel, about continued coordinated
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: efforts between the United States and Israel about the next
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: phase of the war, but nothing seems to be happening
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: right now. Maybe they're waiting for the next time the
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: entire Uranian leadership decides to meet up in some bunker
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: and they want to take them all out at once,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: when we'd think the Ranian leadership wouldn't do that anymore.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: They've learned a lesson, but of course irrational people don't
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: necessarily ever learn lessons. So again, where we were for
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: a long time, have to open the states of homos.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: No indication there's a willingness to do so, no indication
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: there's a there's the commitment to actually executing on it.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: All right, we will keep track of that. I'm gonna
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to look I'm gonna try to look
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: at I'm gonna try to look at the the actual
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: shipping data about what's going in and out. I'll check
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: that out. Hopefully i'll have some input for you tomorrow
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: on actual numbers of ships going in and out of
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: the streets. And foremost, if there's been any impact of
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: the Operation Freedom that Trump has declared. All right, let's see. Yeah,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: there's there's been a lot of talk about AI. I mean,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of talk about AI as they should be.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: AI is going to change the world. I mean, the
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: the physical manifestation of AI right now, that's most obvious
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I think is the Waymos. I mean here in Austin,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: it's like there's a lot of them. We've ridden in
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Waymos now four times every time I ask, you know,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: you can you can? They come and from Uber so
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: they're linked to the Uber app and you get a
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: way more or a regular car. But I found a
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: way to almost guarantee that we get a way more
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: every time. They still don't go to the airport, but
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: pretty much everywhere else you can go very way more
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: in Austin. They won't go on the highway, and that's
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: the big next thing is for Waymos to be approved
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: for travel on I thirty five, which is the big
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: north north south highway here and Mopak which is the
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: other north south highway to ninety one eighty three. So
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: they need to get permission to go in the highways
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: and once they do that, they dominate. There's also a
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: startup here in Austin that is also autonomous vehicles. They
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: still haven't got permission to do it without a safety
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: driver present, so they do have somebody sitting in the
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: driver's seat even though they're not activating the car. That
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: is a startup. It's not owned by any of the
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: big companies. A Tesla is operating their cause here. I
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: haven't seen any which is a little surprising in downtown Austin.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: But somebody told me that they don't need the driver anymore,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: the safety drive anymore, that they're operating completely autonomously now.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: But I don't know because I haven't seen them. But
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: that's the use of AI, that's kind of obvious. AI
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: is everywhere. It's going to be more and more in medicine.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: It's going to be obviously much more in everything else
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: that we do, from asking questions and doing research. I'm
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: giving my students here in the University of Austin a
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: test tomorrow and I have to figure out how to
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: have them type the question, but not how not give
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: them access to AI. And there's a there's a I
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: guess the software that the university uses makes it possible
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: to ask an exam question, have them type the answer
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: into the piece of software, and it blocks AI while
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: doing so, so they won't be able to use AI,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: or the Internet for that matter, in order to write
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the exam questions. AI is everywhere, but and with the
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: increase in AI, there is more and more concern about
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: AI being used for nefarious uses, for example, for designing,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: designing chemical weapons, designing biological weapons. And you could even
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: imagine an AI connected to a lab which runs the
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: whole process and basically you get on the other side
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: some kind of you know, horrific chemical or horrific biological agent.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: And while there are some protections in the existing AI,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: people who have tested it have found them not to
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: be as robust as you would as you would want.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: And when it comes to this, when it comes to
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: potential uses of AI to violate individual rights, there is
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: a reason for the government to get involved, or at
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: least to think about getting involved, and to figure out
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: what are the safeguards, and what are the reals that
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: should be implemented that is, and and when should the
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: government intervene it when it shouldn't intervene. There is a
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: real role for government to the extent that there's national
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: security risks, real national security risks, not pretend ones. And
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: to the extent that you know, there's there's a real
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: challenge where real damage, not pretend damage. Now I don't
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: know A is going to become conscious and kill us all,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: but real issues where AI might kill people by accident.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Purpose is hard to say, but because there is no
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: such thing, I mean, a computer and AI can't have purpose.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: But it could view killing people as a solution to
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: a problem you posed to it. And again, I assume
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: they are safeguards in the AI right now. Are they
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: robust enough? Are they not? So it's hard to tell
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: exactly what the old government should be. But somebody has
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: to do the thinking about that. I worry that we
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: don't have people qualified to do that kind of thinking.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: It strikes me that kind of thinking is hard complicated.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: It would have to involve thinking about it in a
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: way that doesn't violate rights. So you want to be
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: able to have safeguards but not violate rights at the
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: same time. And that's tricky and it's not clear how
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: you do it. And you know, the government has to
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: have a role, but I don't know that dis government
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: could do it now. Trump so far that Trump doing
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: the Station's attitude so far has been hands off of AI,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: and that I think is being overall good. But there
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: is this real concern about national security and about certain
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: dangers and dangerous things that AI can produce so I
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: can can help people produce. And so it's hard to tell.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: And the problem is, of course, I don't trust this
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: administration to do that right now. It sounds like it
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: seems like right now, there's a story out that the
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: administration is discussing an executive order to create an AI
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: working group. They would being together tech executives and government
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: officials to examine potential oversight procedures to make sure that I,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: you know, again, does not do these or it's not
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: used for these horrific purposes. Now it's hard to tell
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: what that means and how that is going to work.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: And of course the worst thing is that the government
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: now gets to approve AI models, which is way over
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: the head of the government. And indeed, among one of
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: the potential plans supposedly as part of this government oversight,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: would be a formal government review process for new AI models.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: That can be that can be out the ideal outcome.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: It can be that we leave it up to the government,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the agency or force without the tools to really do
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: a proper oversight of this. What that'll do. You know,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: we know the incentives that government has. Take no risk,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: it'll shut down the industry, it'll slow progress down significantly.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: So you know what is possible. I mean, I don't
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: know what is possible. This has to be really thought
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: out and how you would structure the incentives right and
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: who would be on and what kind of oversight you
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: would supply, if at all. But a government formal government
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: review process for new AI models is a recipe for disaster.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: It's a recipe for slow down and stagnation in a
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: space that can't afford slow down in stagnation, even from
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: a national security perspective, because you've got the Chinese marching
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: ahead So what the solution is, I don't know. Maybe
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: some of you who are more expert on AI have
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: some ideas on what would be, if any, appropriate role
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: for government in this. UH. Maybe you have ideas on
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: how you know, how you would how you would stop
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: the worst from happening. UH. I am not sure. Uh
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: I I it, but it requires thinking by people who
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: know what they're doing, people in the industry who know AI. UH,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: people who who are n not gonna be bureaucratically inclined,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: not gonna be let's give it all to the government.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: But but people who respect the market mechanisms and within
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: those market mechanisms can come up with ideas on how
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: to provide some safety when it comes to when it
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: comes to UH artificial intelligence. I mean the way MOS
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: a good example of where the industry itself is created
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: UH all kinds of UH safety provisions which er a
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: A I think make these cause unbelievably safe. Now, when
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: they go on the highway and they have to deal
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: with high speeds and they have to deal with irrational
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: drivers or driving at high speeds around them, how they
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: handle those situations and what the algorithm dictates to them
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: in terms of survivability. Do you crash the car or
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: kill a pedestrian, or slam into another car or into
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: a bus, or you know how you make the choices
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: when an irrational driver leaves you no good choices. This
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: is the one place where only place, really I can
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: think of, where trolley problems suddenly become relevant because the
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: algorithm has to make choices, and it has to have
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: an algorithmic solution to it. And it's not a choice,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: but you have to program at least a mechanism by
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: which it the algorithm chooses, for lack of a better word,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: between options when, for example, a a an accident is inevitable,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: and maybe even fatality is inevitable. Who dies The person
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: in your car, the person in the other car, the
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: person that carts to the right, the person that caught
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: the left. It's gonna be really interesting once they get
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: on the highways. What happens. Now they're really really good,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: so they'll avoid most of the accidents, but once in
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: a while there will be an accident. Anyway, we will
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: see how that allpens out, and we will see if
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: this executive order goes through, what kind of oversight committee
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: is put together to UH regulate uh ai.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Right, uh let's see alright.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: One of the challenges of the government outlawing something for
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: which there is demand and which can be supplied even
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: if that supplies illegal, is that there is no quality control.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: And what you observe in this situation is how fast
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: the government or how fast are you? How fast the
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: market responds and adapts to the constraint placed on the
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: market by government. And here I'm talking about opioids. The
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: fact that you know drugs are illegal, that you know heroin, cocaine,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: all those drugs are illegal, and yet there is high
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: demand for them, high demand among all levels I guess
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: of income level of American society. People consume drugs, a
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: wide variety of drugs. But there was no mechanism by
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: which one can do quality control. There's no mechanism by
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: which one can, you know, adjust suppliers and run chemical
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: tests and get purity tests. And they all that everything
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: in the market would provide you had to if you
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: had a market in drugs, drugs, you would be able
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: to choose cocaine grown in Columbia, us A cocaine grown
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: and can prove us A cocaine grown in some of
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: these backyard. You you could choose the level of purity.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Uh and and I think you would choose not having
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: fentonol as part of it. But that doesn't exist. And
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: therefore a lot of drugs have very very dangerous components
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: that can kill people even when they don't want to
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: kill themselves, and can do a lot of damage. And
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: you know, the government keeps clamping down on these drugs.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: They keep combing down. Now they combing down of fentanyl,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: and you know they've got deals with the Chinese not
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: to allow that because the chemicals are fentanyl. I guess
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of effort to stop the labs in
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Mexico from producing the fentannyl that then comes to the
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: United States. As we're bombing boats in the Caribbean that
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: have anything to do with fentanyl. There is efforts being
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: done to restrict fentanyl. Well, what is the market response
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: to a shortage in fentanyl. Well, the market's response is
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: to look for something more potent than fentanyl. Fentanyl is
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: already I don't know, ten times more potent than heroin,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: and so small amounts of it you can you can
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: create a huge amount of buzz an addiction and everything
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: else and therefore could be easily transported, and yet small
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: amounts can be quite valuable. Well, once you're going after fentanyl,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: it's chemical components and it's known smuggling roots, well then
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: the market is going to adapt. And what the market
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: has now adapted is to something even more potent than fentanyl,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: and in this case, far more potent than fentanol. If
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: you can believe that, and this is a new synthetic opiod,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: they're called or finds or finds. It's whole family of
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: opiods that can be produced in a lab. They use
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: different chemicals than fentanol. I guess they're produced in different places.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: They've now traces of fines are being found in fourteen
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: in drugs in fourteen different states, mostly in the South
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: and Midwest. They are very difficult to detect or they
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: cannot be detected by standard toxicology tests, so you have
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: to devise a test especially to find them to discover them.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: And you know, people are trying to figure out, you know,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: what the consequence of all this is, where they're exactly
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: coming from, who is making them. I mean, even a
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: quantity no greater than a few sand sized grains can
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: be ten times more powerful than fentanyl of the same
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: size ten times. And it's look at some market innovation people,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: you know. A few years ago, actually somebody published a
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: paper saying, you know, once once fen and is taken
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: care of, you can do other stuff. This is not
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: the end of the synthetic opiods, and you can produce
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: other stuff. I guess some scientists put out together. In
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, the DEA issued a temporary ban and all
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: Fentonol related substances called analogs. The same year, an article
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: in the Gymnal of Medical Chemistry addressed the challenge of
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: developing opiods without toxic side effects and offered all fines
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: as cautionary examples. It describes them as dangerous because they're
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: so powerfully addictive and may affect breathing, and they can
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: be lethal, and they can be lethal super fast. Victims
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: will often just slump over abruptly. Respiration will shut down,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: chest walls become rigid. Even the foam that is typical
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: of overdoses doesn't even have time to bubble up. Now,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: you can still revive them if you inject them with nelloxone,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: which is the you know, the anti opioids, the opiod
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: reversal medication, but you would have to give them a
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: lot of doses, much more than it's typical, much more
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: than you would give fentanyl, and you would have to
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: do it fast. So you can't win this war. The
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: point of this is there's no winning the war on drugs.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: You can't have a warn drugs. You can't have a
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: war on something people actually desire, they value for whatever reason,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: for a crazy reason, they do. And the best safest
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: thing to do is make it completely legal, not decriminalize it,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: but completely legal. Need let people compete on selling it,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: and let them compete on quality and on inspection and purity.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: My myhoine has no entanyl, no none of these, none
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: of these new or fines. You get safer product. You
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: get an industry arising to basically treat drug addiction. The
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: whole industry would be created to treat drug addition cheaply
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: and safely. You get much more distribution of the you know,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: opioid reversal drugs for overdose and crime Woods plummet. I mean,
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: it's hard to imagine, particularly in Latin America, but in
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: the United States. I mean, the extent of which crime
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: in the world today, how much of the crime in
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: the world today is related to drugs, a significant portion
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: of it, particularly a significant portion of a violent crime.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: Think Mexico, think most of the northern part of Latin America,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: all the way down to Colombia and Peru and Ecuador
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: dominated by crime associated with drugs. Legalize that all that
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: goes away. This l fiance of also media to Europe.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: In particular, the traces have been found in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: fans in Germany, and it's called in these countries. It
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: is called poor man's fentanyl because it's significantly cheaper than fentanyl,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: easier to make, I guess than fentanol. So and in Europe,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: one version of these fights is used by itself, not
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: mix in with other drugs. So yeah, innovation in the
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: field of illegal drugs is ongoing. The profit motive is
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: too large because it's illegal too for that innovation to stop.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: The only way to get rid of that innovation is
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: to legalize it. And then what people are demanding is
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: going to be very different than what people demand today.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: All right, let's see what's the next story? Is a
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: burdher so Butta, of course, is a province in Western Canada.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: It is Canada's energy powerhouse. Oil you know, tar sand
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: where you can get oil out of the tar. It's
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: got natural gas, so it's a major economic powerhouse. But
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: it's also a major agricultural and tourist region. It is.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: It is an economically vibrant place. It has a growing population,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: a significantly growing population. This is This is the province
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: that has Calgary and Edmonton in its I've only been
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: there once. I've been to Calgary once for less than
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: twenty four hours. Of course, it includes the Canadian Rocky Mountains,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: which are unbelievably beautiful, and that's the tourism primarily of tourism,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: but it's really well known as the energy hub of
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: Canada oil sands but also conventional energy. It's Canada's richest province.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: It also politically is dominated by a Conservatives and its
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: it's got a political culture focused very much on development
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: of energy, fossil fuels, profilecile fuel. I think Alex Epstein,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: you know, was very influential there but also was welcome
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: there because this is their inclination. Anyway. The big defenders,
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: relatively speaking, in relative to Canada property rights, lower taxes,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: and resistance to environmental regulations. So Alberta is stands out
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: as different within Canada. It's a lot less leftist than
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: the rest of Canada, and as a consequence, it has
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: developed a separatist movement, a group of you know, a
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: significant number of people in Alberta want to leave Canada,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: and a significant number of those who want to leave
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: Canada would actually like to join the United States. And indeed,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: as of last week, to Stay Free Alberta, which is
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: the group that has been collecting signatures for referendum on
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Albertum independence, has has achieved their goal. They needed to
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: raise one hundred They need to get one hundred and
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: seventy eight thousand signatures in order to get their petition
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: for a province wide vote, and on Monday yesterday, the
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: organizer said they've collected more than three hundred and one
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: thousand signatures, so they will be submitting those signatures to
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Elections Alberta, an independent elections agency, which makes it very
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: likely that the referendum will actually go ahead. The referendum
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: will ask us some ple question, do you agree that
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: the province of Alberta should cease to be part of
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Canada to become an independent state? Now there are few
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: obstacles to this. First, signatures have to be verified. A
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: number of indigenous groups have launched a legal challenge to
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: the separatists. Indigenous groups in Canada have all kinds of
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: special rights privileges, I guess, and last month and Alberta
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: judge issued a ruling that prevents officials from validating the
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: secession petition until that application from the indigenous groups can
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: be hood. So how to telephone even make the ballot now?
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: But it has a population about five million people, and
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: you know the goal of the separatists has been to
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: collect one million signatures, so three hundred thousand is not
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: quite a million. And it seems that in poll after
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: poll it would seem that if it made it as
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: to the to an election, they would lose in quite
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: significant numbers. It seems like most people in Alberta prefer
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: to state and be a part of Canada then actually
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: than actually to leave the According to Poles, half of
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: the people who support leaving would like to join the
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: United States rather than establish your own state, which would
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: be an improvement given way Canada is support. Last month
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: found support for the separatist cause at about twenty seven percent,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: with sixty seven percent saying they would vote against it.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Support for separate discs you'd hire among men and people
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: who live in Rule Alberta, which kind of makes sense.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Probably people in the oil and gas industry probably support leaving.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: So anyway, we will see if this ever makes the ballot.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: We will see if it makes a ballot, whether it
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: actually passes. I mean, if the goal here, I mean
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: I support the session if the goal is more freedom.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: I think in this case the goal is more freedom,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: although because primarily because I think Canadians, Canadian conservatives are
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: not religious nuts like in America, so it's likely that
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: they would emphasize the economic freedoms without violating other freedoms.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Although one never knows, but I think that would be
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: the case. But the reality is that the chance of
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: this actually passing, and I'm sure we've got a bunch
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: of Canadians out there who have opinions about this, the
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: chances of this passing seem to be very very very low,
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: very low, right, Okay, yeah, yeah, I mean by voting
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: for this, you're not voting to join America. You're just
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: voting to be a separate state. So I just don't
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: think there are enough people that would like that. I
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: don't think they're enough people to value economic freedom all
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a value in being part of Canada,
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: which is a value being part of a bigger country,
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: there's great, you know, there's a value. And if you
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: do leave, it does make sense to join America because
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: being part of a large confederation, a large federal system
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: is a massive advantage. Is larger markets, great econnors of scale.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Uh you know, uh, free trade. So we will see
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: what happens over there, all right, what else that's al Buddha? Okay,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: a few things in Germany. So lastly Germany had an
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: election and a and a right of center government was created,
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: you know, the kind of is trying to revive the
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: political center and has established a government. Mutz often sounds
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: pretty good, but from everything I read, doesn't do much
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: and hasn't moved Germany in the direction that needs to go.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: Be concerned. During the last election was the rise of
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: the far right, a f D party which is a populist, nationalist,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: anti markets political party of the right, which has a
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: lot of suspect people associated with it. Put it that way, right,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: some people floating with fascism of various types associated with it,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: and the hope was that the success of the center
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: right will and in a coalition with the center left,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: would revise the German economy and therefore retard the advance
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: of the AfD as a political party in Germany. Sadly
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: that has not happened. I think primarily because the government
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: has been inept. They have not done what they promised.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: They've not achieved what they set out to do. You know,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: while Mertz constantly complains about what happened in the past
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: in Germany in terms of shutting down the nuclear power plants,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: he hasn't we opened them. While he talks about deregulation
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: and the need for it and massive deregulation, and though deregulation,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: he hasn't done it. While he talks about more free
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: markets and more entrepreneurial and changing the system. While he's
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: talked about it, he hasn't done it. The only way
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: to stop the AfD from writing the power is to
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: create a robust German economy that functions on the principles
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: of free markets, and Germany is not able willing to
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: actually do what is necessary to make that happen. While Mertz,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: again I find what he says often really really good.
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: He's very unpopular at home, primarily because he hasn't done
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: anything anyway. During the election last year, Mertz's writer of
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: center political party guid I think twenty eight percent of
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: the votes. AfD got twenty percent of the votes. Polls
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: right now are showing that that is basically flipped. In
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: the latest poll, Merchant's party is getting below twenty five percent,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: the center left party is getting below fifteen percent, and
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: the AfD is getting twenty eight percent. You know, the
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: poll suggest that if there was an election today, the
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: AfD would win the election in a sense of getting
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: the most votes. It's unlikely they could form a government,
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: right because all the other political parties so far at
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: least have sworn not to cooperate with them and not
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: to form a government with them. But it also means
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: that it's not clear how you would form a government
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: without them, you know, maybe, you know, only if the
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: center right was willing to form a coalition with all
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: the way to the far left, including maybe the Greens
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: and maybe the new socialist parties. We're looking at kind
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: of a stalemate. We're looking kind of a stalemate in Germany. AfD,
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: of course, has the support of people like JD Vans,
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: which only makes it more scary and a lot of
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: the American right. Now, the American right has taken a
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: huge hit with the defeat of Aubon and they are
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: looking for new champions in Europe to replace Auban, and
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: if the AfD cuddly wins in Europe that will become
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: they will get the support of the Americans again. Jdvance
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: flew to Hungary before the election, has supported Aubon, and
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Auban still lost in a landslide. It wasn't even closed anyway.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: So this is the general trend in Europe now is
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: a rise in on the far right. This looks like
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: what's going to happen in France. It's hard to see
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: any other outcome happening in France. Macorn cannot run, he's
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: term limited out. I don't know that there is a
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: centrist candidate that can unite people against the fall left
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: and the far right. And it does look like the
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: fall right is the more popular between the fall left
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: and the far right, but either one would be awful.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: But the people polling best in France right now it's
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: a fall left candidate, a fall right candidate, not great options.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: But this is kind of the trend. The right, the
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: moderate right, the centrist right, is dramatically losing ground to
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: the populist right, the far right, not in a sense
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: of right as freedom rights, right as rights, but more
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: right as close to to fascism, the collectivistic right, and
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: that seems towards dominating around the world again with exception
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: maybe of Hungary, but even there, the new political party
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: that one and defeated Oban is also a party of
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: the somewhat populist right. It's not exactly a free market party.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: Same as happening in India. You know, Modi represents a
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: kind of a nationalist, religionist political path for India, sadly
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: does not represent real liberalization, you know, a real movement
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: towards the capitalist economy in India. It's much more nationalism
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: than he have After he did poorly in the election,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: was it a year or two ago, But it looks
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: like he is doing very very well in the regional
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: elections all over India. It looks like he is one
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: of resounding election victory in West Bengal, which is in
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: the west of India, which used to be a stronghold
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: for the last two decades of the opposition and he
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: just won significantly. It also looks like he's doing well
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: in some other providences of India where in the past
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: opposition has done well. India too seems like it's moving
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: towards more of a of a kind of a nationalist,
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: right wing political orientation. Sadly, but it seems to be
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: where things are heading. Seems to be the dominant, the
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: dominant domino. What's going on in the world right now?
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: All right, let's talk a little bit about Ukraine. We
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: talked about it yesterday. We'll talk about it, I'm sure
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: in the future. And part of the story about Ukraine
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: is something has shifted, something has shifted in the dynamic
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: between Ukraine and Russia. It really does seem that over
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: the last few weeks, in particularly over the last week
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: or so, Ukraine has suddenly come out with the upper hand.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: It has to quote Trump. It seems like Ukraine now
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: has the cards. And maybe the best evidence for that
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: is Trump. Trump earlier today in an in an interview
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: I'm quoting from Trump, he said, if you can believe this,
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: but it's Trump, so he can believe anything. Trump said.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: I like Zelensky, I've always sort of gotten along with him,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: other than that one moment in the White House, which
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: I thought was a little aggressive on his behalf. The
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Ukrainians fight because whether the equipment is great or less
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: than great, they're able to fight. They're better than any
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: of our allies. They've held it back for a long time,
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: held the Russians back for a long time. So even
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Trump is expressing appreciation for Ukraine, something dramatic has changed.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: And I think what everybody is sensing is Russian panic.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: You know, Ukrainian drones and now reaching a thousand miles
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: inside Russia. Not just a thousand kilometers seventeen hundred kilometers,
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: it's just over one thousand miles. A Ukrainian drone hits
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: a city on the other side of the yu All Mountains.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Community is where most people thought the war was like
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: far away, distant, irrelevant for them. A drone has hit
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: a city called Yekaterinburg something like that, where one point
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: five million people live. And this is a city that's
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: always been viewed as safe. Indeed, this is a city
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: where the Russians evacuated much of their industry during World
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: War Two. As Hitler was threatening to take Moscow, because
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: it was so far. Basically almost most of the populated
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: areas in Russia today are within drone strike and cruise
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: missile strike of the Ukrainians and their defense systems of
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: the Russians. I just not able to stop them. Partially
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: because Russia is such a large country that it's hard
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: to deploy air defense systems everywhere, and partially because as
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: we've seen in Iran and it's Syria and in Lebanon
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: and every part of the world where Russian air defense
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: systems have been tried, they're now very affected. They're just
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: not good against relatively advanced Western and now I consider
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: Ukrainian weapons systems, even when it's built in Ukraine western,
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: because they're using Western technology. They can't compete, can't compete.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Airports all over Russia be shut down because drones are
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: infiltrated deep into Russia. Indeed, there are reports, and I
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: don't have confirmation of this, but there's a report that
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: basically all of Moscow's airports, and there are I think three,
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: are basically shut down because they're worried about drone attacks.
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: Hundreds of flights delayed or canceled. We talked yesterday about
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: Putin's hiding in a bunker, and he is he's afraid
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: of drones. We talked about the fact that he's announced
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: the ceasefire May eight to ten without asking Ukraine because
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: he's afraid of Ukrainian attacks on the Victory Day parade,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: which will have no weapons in Moscow for the first
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: time in Russian history. There will be no tanks in
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: the parade on Victory Day, which is the day they
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: celebrate victory over World War Two. In World War two
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: over the Nazis. Ukraine also has these Flamingo Cruis missiles
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: that they developed the Ukrainian they're now reaching, you know,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: significant distances a thousand kilometers from the front, and they're big.
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: They carry a warhead of one hundred and fifty kilograms.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: For example, one hit just today a big military electronics
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: plan in Chabo, Kasi something like that, which is again
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: deep inside Russian territory. And because it's such a large warhead,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: it does big damage, much more damage than the drones
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: can do. And Ukraine makes these Christmas hous itself, and
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: again a defense systems have not knocked them down. And
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: one of the reasons might be that the Russians, particularly
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: in anticipation of the parade on May ninth, have diverted
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: almost all of their defense systems to Moscow. So Moscow
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: is not surrounded by a defense systems, and yet the
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Ukrainians have penetrated those as well, and Moscow's being attacked
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: by drones in the last few days. This is what
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: this is how confident the Ukrainians are. This is a
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: state from Zelenski addressing the residents of Moscow. I mean,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: this would have been unbelievable a few months ago or
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: a year ago. This is Zelensky. Moskovites who did not
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: commit crimes in Bucha and Mariopo, who did not abduct
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Ukrainian children, did not bomb peaceful Ukrainian cities and villages,
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: and did not take part in the illegal occupation. Please
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: try to leave the city and go as far as
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: possible on May ninth. Thank you for your understanding that.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Thank you for your understanding. Is there equip of of Trump.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: He's learning, He's learning now, that's pretty amazing. He's basically
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: threatening the Russians that they're going to be bombed on
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: May nine. Now, whether he plans to do that or not,
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: whether he's capable of doing that or not. On May ninth,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. He's sowing panic among among Russians. Uh So, anyway,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: we will see what happens. As I said yesterday, there
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: is significant intelligence reporting, uh basically that says that Putin
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: is hiding he's afraid of an assassination attempt inside Russia
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: by his own people. And he's also afraid of a
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: drone attack by the Ukrainians. So and and like most dictators,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: you know, this has brought about hysteria, uh and and
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: and and real real panic within Russia. And I think
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Zelenski's threats and you know, a bound to create even
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: more panic. Good for the Ukrainians, you know they I've
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: also saw chart today about how much land you know, Russia.
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: Russia is giving back. It's slow. The Ukrainians are taking
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: back land very slowly. But this year Russia has made
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: negative progress or almost or no progress. So you know,
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: Ukraine has seemingly has the upper hand at least on
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: the defense. All right, this will be quick, but I
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: just just a reminder this is a topic world Delvin
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: and much greater depth in the future. There is a
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: real challenge that the entire Western world faces. To some extent,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: Southeast Asia faces as well South Korea, Japan, And that
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: is the combination of two things that are happening. One
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: very low birth rates, smaller smaller cohorts of young people
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: who are entering the job market, and at the same
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: time loading quantities of unfunded retirement pension liabilities. You know,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: for example, Spain in Italy, their both rates are below
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: one way below replacement, and yet they're carrying unfunded pension obligations.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: So these are pension obligations that can only be paid
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: from current taxes. So only if young people join the
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: workforce and attacked can these pension obligations be paid. The
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: current unfunded pension obligations are about five hundred percent of GDP.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: It explains why you know, Spain is so eager to
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: legalize their illegal immigrants. They want as many you know,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: people working as possible so they can tax them. But
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: the same problem exists in Austria, which has unfunded liabilities
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: are four hundred and sixty two percent. Italy fned in
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: forty one percent of GDP. A Netherlands formed in twenty three.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: That explains why the Netherlands has just imposed this new
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: wealth tax on that includes on unrealized capital gains Finland
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: of three hundred and ninety nine percent. Some countries in
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: healthier positions, not surprising countries like Denmark and Sweden. Denmark
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: is ninety three percent of GDP unfunded liabilities, not too bad.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: Sweden about twenty seven percent of GDP are unfunded liabilities.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: But the United States is at about two hundred percent
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: of GDP unfunded liabilities. We are in the same problem.
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: Unless we get a strong court of young people to
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: redistribute wealth from them to old people, the system will
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: have to default on medicancil security or create massive inflation
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: to reduce their actually value. And this is double true.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: Of course, Spain, Austria, Italy can't create inflation because they
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: don't have central banks. So I'm just gonna have to
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: tax young people, tax them and tax them and tax
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: them and tax them, or default on the obligations that
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: they have made to old people. And that is going
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: to be going into i'd say the next twenty thirty years.
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: That is going to be the option faced by more
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: and more and more governments around the world, and some
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: countries are gonna face much higher taxes. Now they could
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: also cut spending, but they have to cut a lot
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: of spending to make up for this gap. It's gonna
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: have to be a combination of cutting spending and raising
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: taxes if they want to fulfill the obligations. Or they
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: can rewrite the obligations, rewrite the pensions. In the United States,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: change social Security, make the retirement age later, reduce, make
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: the benefits what do you call it income? Adjust the benefits, right,
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: you know, same with medicaid. Make it need based rather
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: than just everybody gets the same thing. Those are the solutions.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: They're very politically suicidal, so it's not clear who's gonna
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: actually do them. But you know, all these countries living
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: on allow time in terms of debt. All right, let's see. Okay, quick,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: Reminda that you you can ask questions. The beauty of
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: asking questions is that you you get to shape the show.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: I get to talk about what you want me to
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: talk about, rather than just the topics I want. Because
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: I answer all the questions, I answer them all and
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: read them all out. We have targets for the show,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: and so please consider supporting the show both as a
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: value for value and as a questions to shape what
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: I talk about. All right, Finally, some good news. We've
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: talked about some good news before with regard to this,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: and that's pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic cancer is by faar one
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: of the deadliest cancers, and up until recently, there were
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: very few treatments for pank created cancer, and most people died.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: Most people it was a death sentence for them. There
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: were some rare forms of patriotic cancer that responded to treatment,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: but almost but those were pretty rare. In past shows,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: I've told you about a MR and E vaccine that
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: had amazing results when treated patriated cancer. We've talked about
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: other treatments that have done amazingly against patriotic cancer. And
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: now there's a new one and this is coming out
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: of Israel, a company called what is it called Alpha
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: Tau Alpha TAUO Medical. It's just announced the results of
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: their treatment, which resulted in one hundred percent local disease control.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: That is, the tumor has been reduced, stopped going, and
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: in many cases eliminated. Now it's small sample. All of
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: these trials are small sample. Nineteen patients treated, zero progression observed,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: None of these patients got worse, and there was no
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: real side effects. The treatment is a radio alpha radiotherapy,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: so This is alpha RaSE delivered directly into the tumor,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: and they stopped the tumor from growing and in some
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: cases cause the cumin to shrink. Even in patients that
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: have undergone heavy prior treatments, this still worked. And word
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: responding to those treatments, this still works. So another part
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: of the arsenal, this one not involving chemicals, not involving drugs,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: but you know, an actual I guess they have a
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: special device that you poke the cancer and you deliver
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: the alpha raise, the alpha radiology directly to it, and
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: it stops the cancer from growing. It's pretty amazing all
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: the different treatments today that they have for cancers, their
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: treatments where they freeze the cancer, they freeze the cells,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: just the cancer cells, and then that kills the cancer cells.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: There are all kinds of stuff going on. Cancer treatment
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: is developing really really quickly. There are a lot of
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: new solutions. There are a lot of exciting, you know,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: scientific breakthroughs. This is one of those areas where there's
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: real plenty of reasons to be optimistic and positive about
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: what is possible. All right. That is that is the
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: news for this May fifth, Tuesday, May fifth, thank you
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: all for joining me, and thank you to those who
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: are supporting the show for supporting it through Patreon, which
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: is a way to do it monthly patreon dot com
• 1:03:27
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• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: you can become a monthly contributor or through the super
• 1:03:32
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• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: sticker there, Thank you exit, let's see, Thank you William
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: Who else do we have? Jesh from India?
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: And I think we got all the stickers all right, Yeah,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: thank you guys, really appreciate it.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: You can support the show by just clicking on the
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: dollar sign underneath the chat and doing a sticker. In
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: that way, you don't even have to come up with
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  Speaker 1: a question, but of course if you come up with
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: a question, it's great because then answer it. Let's see,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: I wanted to mention some of our sponsors Defenders of
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Capitalism Defenders of Capitalism dot com. This is a project
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: of Michael Williams. It's a moral, philosophical, economic, social, political
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• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: Iron Institute is promoting the Atlas Shrugged Essay Contest for
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: anybody ages of sixteen to twenty two. If you are
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: in those ages, I know Lincoln, I think, is that
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: young Lincoln? Are you applying for the Are you writing
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  Speaker 1: an essay for the Atless Shrugged Essay Contest? You really
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: should again, it's one hundred thousand dollars first price, twenty
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• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: to the super chat of Ryan you again. Patreon is
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: a great way to support the show patreon dot com
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: at anyway, from two dollars a month to thousand dollars
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: a month. Any amount is greatly appreciated and really helps
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: helps the show a lot. All right, Michael has Michael
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: is the only one asking twenty dollars questions today. What's up, guys,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: I'm missing some of my missing some of our whales.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: All right, Michael, the one you run is a noble endeavor,
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: but it's being conducted by a schmuck. I don't know
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: if you're allowed to say schmuck on YouTube without boots
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: on the ground. Can this wall even ever actually be one? Yeah?
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: I mean you can win it without boots on the
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: ground if you're willing to bomb ruthlessly and bomb a
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: lot and bomb the right targets, butts on the ground
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: is not necessary. You know, if you're willing to just
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: annihilate any barracks, any location where the IRGC is located,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: in the streets, wherever they happen to be, if you're
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: willing to ruthlessly go up to the whole leadership, if
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: you're willing to use big bombs, bunker busting bombs in
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: the middle of Tehran to destroy whatever bunkers they have
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: or wherever they're hiding, if you're willing to bomb a
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: hospital because that's where the Supreme leader might be. And
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: then if you're willing to basically bomb the islands which
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: are being used by Ranian forces to block the straits
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: and Formos and the coast where they are hiding boats
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: and they're hiding missiles to attack shipping, Yeah you can
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: do it, probably without boots on the ground, but you'd
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: have to be willing to go all out, and the
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: United States is not willing, and certainly this president is not.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: He wants to cease fire, he wants deals. He's afraid
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: of his own shadow. I don't know what he's afraid of,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: but he's clearly afraid and it's not happening. But yes,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: it's a noble war because it's a just war. It's
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: a war for the protection of the United States, and
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: that the that is a just war. Silvanas, thank you
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: fifty dollars. That is very generous. Thank you for that.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: Savannah says, Hey, Ron, I'm currently working despite feeling like
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: crud and being sick. Oh that sucks. Do you think
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: there's been a degradation of the work ethic in younger generations?
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: Or am I being irrational to continue working? Well? I
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: mean I can't say you're being irrational. It really depends
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: on why you continue working. Is there is there a
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: major project that you're trying to finish. Is this some
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: kind of deadline you're trying to meet that, is there
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: something important that has to be done. I mean, if
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: you're really feeling bad and there's nothing urgent, go home,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: get some rest, it really isn't worth it. But you
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: know a lot of times you just you power through
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: it because some work just needs to be done. Now,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: whether your generation is better at this than younger generations,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: I just don't know. I don't know if it's true that,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: like gen Z's just take off and they never come
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: if they're sick, or they they never work hard or
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: anything like that. That is an empirical question I don't
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: know the answer to. That's the general sentiment that the
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: younger generations don't work that hard, but I don't know
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: that there's real proof of that. But it's also a
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: question of it's just a question of are you infecting
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: other people? Are you going to make yourself sicker? Right?
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: So is what you've got something that if you go
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: to work and you're stressed and you're working hard, you're
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: actually going to get sick or delay your recovery. You
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: might want to take a day or two off just
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: to speed up that recovery so she can be more
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: productive when you get back. You have to really think
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: through whether the working through illness is worth it. And
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's a right or wrong answer there.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: It's just a matter of you have to figure it out.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: Giving your workload, given the projects due, and given how
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: sick you are and the kind of sickness you have,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: you have to determine that. But from my perspective, you
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: feel better soon, hope you get well soon. Whatever you decide,
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: and you know, whatever generation you are, You're obviously not
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: one of the one of the lazy ones within the generation.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: I think every generation has a lazy bunch. Lincoln says,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: young generation is lazy, but whether that is true, it
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: probably is, but I'm not sure how true it is.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Sevanna, thanks for the support, really appreciated. Michael says,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: just to clarify, I wasn't saying how you've refic Goo
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: had a good point about mixing individualism collectivism, but it's
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: an interesting but it's interesting people are using Rand's terms
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: to describe societies. It shows a growing influence. Yeah, I mean, look,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: individualism is not unique to ran in Nida's collectivism, but
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: she is the one that really used it as a differentiator,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: used it as a major issue, and I do think
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: it's represents her influence. So yes, you're absolutely right in
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: terms of showing her growing influence and that more and
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: more people are using that terminology thanks to clarifying Michael.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Michael also says advice for dealing with annoying people who
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: give you a lot of money, like donors or clients
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: or people you have to engage with for a living.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: You're not They're not evil, but they are obnoxious and annoying. Well,
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: you know, it's somewhat depends, right, Uh, if you really
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: need to work with them in order to make a living,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: and then you really need to work with them. You
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: want to make sure the right working with them, you're
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: not compromising in any kind of way, your own principles
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: and your own values, that their obnoxiousness is not making
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: you do things you wouldn't want to do otherwise. And
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: then you want to minimize your interaction with them. You
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: want to you want to, you know, make it so
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: that you're not spending more than necessary time dealing with them,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: more than necessary time, uh, engaging with them to keep
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: them engaged in your business. But yes, I mean not
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: everything about work is going to be pleasant. And sometimes
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: you've you're going to have coworkers, customers, investors that are
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: obnoxious and annoying, and you've got to find ways to
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: be patient and walk through that as long as you're
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: not as long as they're not forcing you into real compromises.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: Savannah's another fifty dollars, Thank you, Savannas if the Western
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: world is under a ticking clock in the form of
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: these unsustainable welfare systems, do you think there's a legitimate
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: concern to hedge and prepare for major bad times. I mean,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: I think that what you can expect in the future
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: is higher taxes. I think you can see that at
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: least the Democrats are honest about it. The Republicans are dishonest.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: The Democrats are looking for ways to tax I mean,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: their inclination is to go after the rich, but that's
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: not enough money. They'll ultimately have to go after the
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: middle class. Republicans are pretending that will grow out of it,
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: but there's no indication we can, and there's no indication
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: they're doing what is necessary. Basically, you'll find people Republicans,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: primarily in the administration, believing that AI is going to
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: allow for economic growth that is so high that it
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: will wipe out the deficit and wipe out all this
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: unfunded liabilities. But I think you can expect suddenly, expect
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: stagnation that comes from ever growing tax burden on the
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: productive people in society because of the only ones attack
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: because they're the only ones being productive. And I also
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: think that ultimately a lot of these countries will have
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: to cut benefits to older people. That will be politically painful,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: and it might result in people out in the streets
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: and complaints, and you might get the flip. You might
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: see young people out in the streets saying they're fed
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: up with funding old people. So there's definitely going to
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: be a rising tension between the old and the young
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: in Western countries. Exactly how it all plays out, I
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: don't know, and I'm not sure how you would hedge
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: against it. And look, pessimism has not been a good
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: investment strategy, right. I mean, somehow Western societies keep going,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: they keep funding these things, Somehow, economic progress continues, somehow
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: companies continues to make money, and stock markets keep going up,
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: and betting against that has been a real losing bet
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: for decades now. So I don't know that I would
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: hedge anytime soon, but expect low growth and high taxes. Right.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: We had a few more questions here, Michael. It looks
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: like San Francisco has cleaned up its act. The new
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: mayor isn't afraid to get homeless off the street. To
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: some extent, that's true, they're still homeless people. It's much
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: better than it was, let's say, three four years ago.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: Part of it is also the fact that more and
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: more businesses are moving back there's more and more people
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: out in the streets in San Francisco. In the business
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: area there was basically deserted in the post COVID era.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: Those people are there because partially because the mayor is
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: cleaning it up, but also the place is being cleaned
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: up partially because businesses are there, stores are there, and
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: they're demanding that, you know, the access to the store
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: be opened up and cleaned up. So there's definitely that impact,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: and it's definitely happening. San Francisco is much nicer now
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: than it was two three years ago, and it's becoming
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: more livable. It's becoming more livable. The you know, everybody
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: who rode up wrote off San Francisco a few years ago,
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: if you remember, there were a lot of people who
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: did that. And I was defending San Francisco and said
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: it would probably come back and it was still this
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: amazingly beautiful and amazingly productive place. I was right again,
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: And know my views of New York, uh, you know,
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: and we'll see four years into mom Danny if if
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: I'm right or not Chilllisa mah, something like that. Why
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: Americans so demolized by all measures the US is thrashing
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: you on. Somehow a good chunk of people are convinced
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: that end is near and whatnot. Well, I don't think
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: the end is near, but I think people are upset
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: that there hasn't been victory. Yeah, it thrashed youran, but
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: then Eonon closed the streets of Amos and the United
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: States went into paralysis and doesn't know what to do
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: and doesn't know how to how to fix it. I mean,
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: it can't fix it. It would be I don't think
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: that hard to fix it is The United States says
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: the military might to fix it, but it's not. And
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are worried and upset
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: and concerned that it's not. Look, the co in the
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: States of Homos is having incredible impact on the world.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: Gas prices in the US are high, but some countries
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: are really literally running out of gasoline, of oil FOSSL
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: fuel by products. There's real damage being done on global markets.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: This is not this is not neutral, and yet the
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: Trump administration seems to be completely paralyzed to do anything.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: Now they've just announced this mission to open the straits
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: of Homo's Project Freedom. But we'll see if it works.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: But yes, Iran was thrashed, and then it was stopped
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: for no good reason, and Iran was thrashed, while Trump
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: completely ignored the strategic loss of the Homo straits, which
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: is bewildering and massively stupid. I don't know if you
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: can be massively stupid. I just made a new one, Wesley.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: Do you think do you think Gen Alpha those born
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: after twenty ten will be first to benefit from life
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: extension technology? No? I think I think if you were
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: born after nineteen eighty, you're gonna benefit significantly from life
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: extension technology. Jen Alpha will benefit more. I mean, arguably
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: even my generation will benefit a little bit from life
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: extension technology. And then people born so I'm the tail
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: end of the baby boomers, I think will benefit somewhat
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: from life extension technology and knowledge and medicine. And I
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: think whatever generation is after us and it's also going
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: to benefit. I think everybody's gonna benefit, but certainly for
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: nineteen eighty on you will benefit significantly. People who are
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: in there forties right now are going to benefit significantly
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: from life extension. I mean Roman states should ensure individual
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: rights with equality before the law. Does that mean that
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: states should socialize security in their territory. I don't know
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: what that means. I don't know what it means to
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: say socialized security in their territory. I don't know what
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: security means. I don't know what you mean by socialized
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the question means. I'm sorry, Jeff,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: say no to Canadian Balkanization. Yes, Ottawa has been abusing Alberta,
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: but the separation will not change it into a Luzer
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: faith economy. They will still be welfare and universal healthcare, etc.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: So Alberta is not considering repealing any of that and
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: changing any of that. I take it, which is sad. Again,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: the only reason to apt, you know, establishing a new
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: state is a significant improvement of freedom, and it sounds
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: on Jeff's claim here that that is not going to
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: be the case in Alberta. Jeff also says the Treaty
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: of no Authority, the Indigenous have no special rights to
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: overturn the referendum. Equality under the law means one vote
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: for each individual. Yeah, you would think, But the problem
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: is that both in the United States and I think
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: it's some extending Canada, the Indigenous and not considers as individuals.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: They have special privileges as tribes and special penalties because
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: they're not really treated as individuals. This is true in
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: America at least. So yes, you would think they wouldn't
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: have any special privileges to stop this referendum, but who
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: knows how the courts will rule. Emil, what's the sister
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: of the President of Ireland up to. I don't know.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: I haven't heard anything. A lot of anti semitism in Ireland.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: It seems maybe some solidarity thing. I've heard some of that. Yes,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: Ireland is very anti Semitic. It's hard to tell exactly why,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: but I think a lot of it has to do
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: with they were the victims, or at least they view
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: themselves as victims of British colonialism. They have bought into
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: the idea that the left has been preaching that Israel
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: is a colony state, that it is a form of colonialism,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: and they are big anti colonialists, and you know that
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: is part of it. They feel like they were pressed
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: by the British. The Palestinians are being oppressed by the Israelis.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: You know, there was a Catholic which makes them hyper altruistic.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: So altruism is big in Ireland, and altruism would dictate
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: that you support the Palestinians and you'd be anti Israel.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: Israel is strong and successful. The Palestinians are poor in
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: failures Roman. What would be a large enough electoral threshold
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: percentage wise for Alberta to separate? Should France remain an
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: official language? French? I think is French is an official
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: language in Quebec? I don't know, but I don't know
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: what a large enough I think fifty one percent according
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: to the constitution would allow Alberta to separate. I haven't
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: read anything to the contrary, but they're not even close
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: to that. And I don't believe you should have two
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: languages as official languages. There should only be one that
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: should be Canadian. Michael, the stock market is doing very well.
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: Trump deregulation must be the only major driver. I mean,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: the stock market did very, very very well, better than
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: on the Trump, on the Biden. I mean the stock
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: market does well when companies in the stock market doing well,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: and the companies in the stock market do well for
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: reasons that are often completely uncorrelated, unrelated to what the
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: government is doing. A lot of the progress in the
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: stock market is a consequence of AI of the integration
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: of AI and the increasing productivity as a result of AI,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: the benefits of technology overall for businesses that are and
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: these businesses are booming, not because anything good that the
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: government has done, not anything bad the government has done.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: They're just booming. So don't evaluate politics based on the
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: stock market. Stock market has done very very well since
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties. Since nineteen eighty two, the stock quarer
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: has basically gone up. It's had some dips and then
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: gone straight up. Is that because we've had brilliant politicians
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: and deregulation. No, it's because, in spite of the awfulness
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: of government, a business community has been unbelievably innovative and
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: productive and generated enormous amounts the enormous amounts of profits.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't attribute the stock market to Trump, or
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: to Biden, or to any president. Chale. It's a war
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: with consequences. It was never going to be bloodless or simple.
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: To think we would have just waltzed in and demanded
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: surrender with no blowback would just be silly, of course.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: But if you would have, and if you listen to
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: the show, you know this, if we'd had a proper
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: strategy around the streets and foremost, the war would be
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: over mine now. If we'd be willing to do what
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: was necessary in bombing them, the war would be over
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: mine now. And instead we've got a pathetic commander in
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: chief that is not that has failed to take into
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: account the kind of proper strategies, failed to take into
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: account whatever blowback they might be, whatever strength Run might have,
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: and didn't plan for it, and is not willing to
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: pull the trigger ondoing the necessary stuff to bring the
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: Ranians to their knees. So yeah, I agree with all
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: of that, but Trump has not shown a willingness to
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: actually do what is necessary to win, and that's what's
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: holding it up, and that's what people are mad at.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: Less about the war, more about Trump. Robert, Greetings from
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: Studio Naser. Just taking a break from narrating the audible
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: version of Quincode is the Fruit of the Tree the
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: Adultrey book number three. Working to have the book on
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: audible before oakonn twenty twenty six. Exciting looking forward to that.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: Thank you Robert for doing the audio of it. Stephen
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: pets It's thoughts on Dusty Yevsky's novel novels. I've read
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: Crime and Punishment. I've just started Brothers Karamazov. No spoilers
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: please seem to recall Rand putting him up there with
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: the gold but darkness less benevolent. Yeah, I mean less
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: benevolent is the understatement of the century. I mean Dostaevki's
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: is malevolent. But he's a great romantic author. He presents
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: human beings that face choices that control their own destiny,
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: heroes that drive the plot, but his heroes always choose
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: the malevolent choice. And Dostaevsky presents the universe as a
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: malevolent universe where the only possibility for morality for example,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: this is one example is religion. Now, Rand said he
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: was one of the greatest authors all time. That is,
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: you have to separate the philosophy of an author, in
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: this case awful with their esthetic abilities, in this case
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: brilliant genius level. And you know that's the evaluation of Dostaevsky. Right.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: They're thrilling, they're exciting, and they're depressing all at the
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: same time. Harrison thoughts on this plan to character in Maine.
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know much about him and I haven't really
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: done any research about him. But this is a guy
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: who has a swastika, is a tattoo he's running as
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: a Democrat. He's from all accounts he's a real anti Semite.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: The Democratic Party is rallying around him. He has a
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: real shot at defeating Susan Collins, who's a moderate Republican
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: who's represented Maine for a very long time. It just
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: shows how corrupt the Democratic Party has become as to
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: be even semi tolerance of a creature like this. But
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: that's where we are both. The Democratic Party has been
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: capture by its fall left anti Israel and antisemitic forces,
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: and it seems like that's the drift in the Democratic Party.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: And we know my particul of the Republican Party. So
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: it's becoming almost impossible to vote anybody. Yeah, it's a
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: Democrat with a swastika tattoo. I'll look more into who
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: he is and what he is for future show. Always
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: check your premises. Thank you one hundred and fifty nine
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty Australian dollars, he says, apologies, you're
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: on my payment yesterday to the show was declined. This
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: one will go through. Also, get people to hype your
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: videos a Newish YouTube feature. Oh I didn't know that.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: See you guys can hype my videos. It's a button
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: or something on the video, and you know the algorithm
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: pays attention to it. It's maybe like the like, but
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: it's a hype, So hype my videos. Please, Thank you,
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: thank you, thanks, thank you. Always check your premises. Thank
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: you for the one hundred and sixty Australian. Thank you
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: for trying yesterday and succeeding today. I really appreciate that. Yeah, hype,
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: I didn't know the feature existed. I'll look it up
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: and give you more information about the hyping feature on YouTube.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: But yeah, like the video. Subscribe to my show. If
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: you haven't subscribed yet, hype subscribe like and don't forget
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: Patreon to support the show. All right, guys, I will
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: see you all on well tomorrow. Yeah tomorrow. Should definitely
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: have a show tomorrow and yeah, I'll see then. Have
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: a great risk of you a week. Bye, everybody,