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How Gaza could end up split between Israeli and Hamas-controlled areas · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: What has been five weeks since Israel and her mass
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  Speaker 1: declared a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel now controls just over
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  Speaker 1: half the territory and is already rebuilding them, leading to
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  Speaker 1: fears that the strip could be divided for years to come.
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  Speaker 2: This is one side of Gaza, rubble and destruction everywhere
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  Speaker 2: overseen by Hamas. This is another, a satellite photo of
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  Speaker 2: a new Israeli Army outpost. Between them is the so
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  Speaker 2: called Yellow Line, the military border. When US President Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump celebrated the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas last month,
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  Speaker 2: he made bold promises.
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  Speaker 3: But now, at last, not only for Israelis, but also
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  Speaker 3: for Palestinians and for many others, the long and painful
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  Speaker 3: nightmare is finally over, and as the dust settles, the
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  Speaker 3: smoke phades, the debris is removed and the ashes cleaned
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  Speaker 3: from the air. The day that it breaks on, a
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  Speaker 3: region transformed, and a beautiful and much brighter future appears
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  Speaker 3: suddenly within your reach.
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  Speaker 2: But that new day has not yet come for Gazans.
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  Speaker 2: Israel controls fifty three percent of Gaza, including most of
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  Speaker 2: its farmland on its side of the Yellow Line, most
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  Speaker 2: of the strip's two million people are crammed into the
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  Speaker 2: Hamas controlled area by the coast, many intensities, with winter
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  Speaker 2: on the way, their houses in rubble, and aid deliveries slow.
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  Speaker 2: Phase one of Trump's twenty point peace plan was a ceasefire.
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  Speaker 2: In Phase two, Israel is supposed to withdraw further and
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  Speaker 2: Hamas is supposed to disarm. An international stabilization force is
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  Speaker 2: supposed to take over security as Gaza transitions to a
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  Speaker 2: technocratic government of Palestinians. Hamas has only agreed vaguely to
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  Speaker 2: some of the provisions.
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  Speaker 3: Hamas is ready to hand over power now so that
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  Speaker 3: the reconstruction of Gaza can begin. The people of Gaza
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  Speaker 3: have a right to that.
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  Speaker 2: Armed Hamas fighters are policing their side of the yellow line,
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  Speaker 2: and the group has not disarmed. So far, Hamas has
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  Speaker 2: fought other armed factions, putting civilians even more at risk. Meanwhile,
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  Speaker 2: there are broad disagreements about how the stabilization force would work,
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  Speaker 2: which countries would contribute troops, and details of its power
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  Speaker 2: and responsibilities. There's no public pressure on Israel from the
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  Speaker 2: Trump administration to withdraw, leaving that date in the vague future.
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  Speaker 2: All of this leading to a delay in implementing phase
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  Speaker 2: two that has international backers of the ceasefire worried.
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  Speaker 4: But we really need to fill the vacuum within the
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  Speaker 4: Gather Strip for security for administration, and we really have
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  Speaker 4: to do that as soon as possible in order to
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  Speaker 4: avoid that Hamas is again taking over. I would say
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  Speaker 4: power in the Gather Strip, and that of course could
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  Speaker 4: be again a motivation for Israel to once again use
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  Speaker 4: military force, and that of course is not the way ahead.
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  Speaker 4: So it is imperative that we have a timeline for
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  Speaker 4: the withdrawal Israeli forces from Gaza.
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  Speaker 2: As Israel forges ahead with military construction on its side
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  Speaker 2: of the Yellow Line, it appears to be planning to
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  Speaker 2: stay in Gaza for the long haul.
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  Speaker 1: Joining me now from Tel Aviv is mayor of Zenshein,
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  Speaker 1: senior analyst on Israel for the International Crisis Group Marev.
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  Speaker 1: It's looking increasingly like Gaza could end up effectively split
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  Speaker 1: between Israeli and ha mass controlled areas. How real a
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  Speaker 1: risk is that now?
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  Speaker 5: I think that is the current reality on the ground,
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  Speaker 5: and until and unless the Trump administration, together with other
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  Speaker 5: governments and heads of state who are engaged on the
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  Speaker 5: plan and who did back the UN resolution, until they
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  Speaker 5: actually fill in the substance and details of how the
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  Speaker 5: next phase is going to look like. We're going to
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  Speaker 5: remain in this status quo. It's a very precarious status quo.
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  Speaker 5: It's one though, that has both advantages and disadvantages to
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  Speaker 5: both sides. So there are incentives for Hamas and Israel
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  Speaker 5: to move forward, but Israel also is clearly the one
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  Speaker 5: calling the shots. And as we know in the Middle
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  Speaker 5: East and in Israel Palestine, when Israel takes territory, it
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  Speaker 5: oftentimes becomes from a contemporary situation to a permanent one,
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  Speaker 5: and so it will require serious external resolve to change that.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, you talked a little bit there about this sort
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  Speaker 1: of it's almost like this phase two is kind of stuck.
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  Speaker 1: What is causing the deadlock really? And is there any
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  Speaker 1: sign of movement coming in the future.
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  Speaker 5: I mean, look, we have a plan on the table,
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  Speaker 5: it's the only game in town. There's supposed to be
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  Speaker 5: an international stabilization force, they're supposed to be a Board
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  Speaker 5: of Peace. None of these things have actually been constituted.
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  Speaker 5: We don't know which countries are going to contribute to it,
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  Speaker 5: and we don't know exactly what their mandate is going
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  Speaker 5: to be. Israel wants them to come in and disarm Hamas.
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  Speaker 5: That's a very unrealistic plan. The countries who have shown
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  Speaker 5: some kind of willingness are more interested in being a
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  Speaker 5: peacekeeping force. And we still have a situation in which
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  Speaker 5: there's ongoing combat, there's military force being used by Israel.
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  Speaker 5: So it's a very chaotic situation. And in order to
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  Speaker 5: get to this next phase, we need Trump and his
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  Speaker 5: people and some other governments to sit down and figure
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  Speaker 5: out how they're actually going to do it. Somebody is
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  Speaker 5: going to have to give. Israel's going to have to
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  Speaker 5: compromise on some things. Hamas is going to have to
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  Speaker 5: compromise and disarm in some way. Without that kind of movement,
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  Speaker 5: we're going to get nowhere.
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  Speaker 1: Now we focus on civilians and the reconstruction plan. Reconstruction
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  Speaker 1: looks pretty limited to is Raeli controlled zone. So what
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  Speaker 1: does that mean for civilians in Hamas held areas?
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  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think we're in reconstruction in any
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  Speaker 5: part of Gaza at this point. Israel. The only thing
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  Speaker 5: it's building is maybe some military outposts or you know,
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  Speaker 5: yellow bricks to show where the line is a withdrawal.
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  Speaker 5: I think the Trump plan in visions that the area
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  Speaker 5: that is completely depopulated of Palestinians that is under Israeli
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  Speaker 5: control would somehow start to be rebuilt, and then you
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  Speaker 5: would try to lure in Gazans to come to that
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  Speaker 5: side and be filtered out from Hamas in some way.
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  Speaker 5: I think that's the general idea, but that's something that
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  Speaker 5: I think is still quite far away at this point.
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  Speaker 5: And for all of the two million Palestinians crowded into
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  Speaker 5: barely you know, living conditions that are barely living conditions,
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  Speaker 5: that's an unsustainable reality. So there's going to have to
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  Speaker 5: be some kind of movement on that otherwise it's going
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  Speaker 5: to be just a spiral of disaster really for both sides.
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  Speaker 1: And we talk about the news that's happening right at
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  Speaker 1: the moment. There are several Palestinians killed in Israeli airstrikes
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  Speaker 1: on Wednesday. Israel says it's targeted militants who fired shots.
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  Speaker 1: It is rady soldiers explain to us how these strikes
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  Speaker 1: are happening despite the ceasefire and what it might do
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  Speaker 1: to the ceasefire.
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  Speaker 5: Well, the ceasefire since it came into effect has been
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  Speaker 5: a somewhat partial ceasefire. It's a ceasefire where Israel has
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  Speaker 5: complete freedom of operation except in certain moments where Trump
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  Speaker 5: tries to pull it back. But essentially Israel has killed
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  Speaker 5: over two hundred and fifty Palestinians since the ceasefire went
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  Speaker 5: into effect. Every time Hamas, which has happened a few times,
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  Speaker 5: tries to shoot at and we don't always know the
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  Speaker 5: exact circumstances of who exactly it was, or whether they
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  Speaker 5: were told to or whether they are underground, but if
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  Speaker 5: they shoot at a soldier, then Israel feels like it
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  Speaker 5: has all of even more legitimacy to start firing from
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  Speaker 5: the air and from the ground at various targets in Gaza.
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  Speaker 5: So that's been the dynamic. The ceasefire has still held,
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  Speaker 5: but like we see in other areas in Lebanon and Syria,
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  Speaker 5: when Israel wants to it fires, it shoots, and if
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  Speaker 5: the other side dares to shoot back, then all bets
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  Speaker 5: are off.
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  Speaker 1: My Mayor of Well love to leave it there, thank
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  Speaker 1: you very much. That's mayor of Zunshine, the International Crisis
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  Speaker 1: Group in Tel Aviv,