Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Thanksgiving Pump or Dump?📈Crypto Market Update

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Thanksgiving Pump or Dump?📈Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: My name is Paul Barren. Welcome back in a tech path.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: I want to thank our sponsor today, that's I Trust Capital.
• 0:10
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  Speaker 1: in funding rewards to get started. Check it out. I
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: think you'll like it. Let's go over to a couple
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: of points I want to hit on right now. One
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: of course, is the October PCE inflation FEDS preferred inflation measure,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: that's the one they like, rises two point three, in
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: line with expectations around two point three, so that's good.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: We will be seeing an FOMC meeting in the early
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: parts of December. We'll cover that for you. The point
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: is that everybody's looking at is do we see a
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: potential another quarter point, another quarter point in terms of
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the potential Fed reduction in the rate. If you look
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: at polymarket, yeah, let's go here. Polymarket is setting at
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  Speaker 1: a twenty five basis points right now at sixty nine percent,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: so that may hold. And it's starting to trend up
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: on the twenty five right now, so that could be
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  Speaker 1: the factor going into the December decision for another quarter
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point basis on interest rates being dropped for the Fed funds. Right.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Remember that's the overnight rate, not sorry, a lot of
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: effect on most markets, but it is positive for investment markets,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: and that's the key other points I want to get into.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Of course, remember Thanksgiving time is here, and typically everybody's
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: out doing that right there, driving going from here to there.
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  Speaker 1: You've got a million things going on, and everybody always wonders,
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  Speaker 1: is this a why do we see these pumps? Why
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: do we see these dumps? Well, we've if you look
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: at some of the past Thanksgivings, we've actually had some
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  Speaker 1: you know, some crashes, but they're usually very short lived
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: and there's some reasons why, and I'll get into some
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: of that today here. Historically speaking, bitcoin tends to pump
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  Speaker 1: hard right after Thanksgiving. I'll kind of explode explode this
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  Speaker 1: up a little bit. If you look all the way
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  Speaker 1: to twenty three pumping hard, twenty twenty pumping hard, that
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  Speaker 1: was pre bull run, all the way back to twenty
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  Speaker 1: seventeen pumping hard, and then of course here we are
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: approaching Thanksgiving as of this week, and we could see
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a run here after Thanksgiving. There's
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: other factors that play into it. If you like the
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: four four year cycles and you look at some of
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the indicators that have really proven to be fairly accurate,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: then you have to kind of consider some of these things.
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  Speaker 1: Another thing right here, this is a good example, Thanksgiving
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: to Christmas, on Having Year, this is what we're in
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: right now. On Having Year has been in a three
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  Speaker 1: for three. Twenty twelve was twenty seven percent, twenty sixteen,
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  Speaker 1: thirty three, twenty twenty a little bit of an outlier
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  Speaker 1: because of that a COVID year, but one hundred percent there.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Even if that had been up, say fifty percent, would
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  Speaker 1: have still been in cycle. With what's going on as well,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: so I think we're in for a very active end
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  Speaker 1: of the year. Micro strategy stock Master just fell a
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  Speaker 1: massive thirty five percent from its peak, and remember this
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  Speaker 1: was up on the twenty first hit. It's all time high,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: thirty billion of market cap erased. This is one of
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  Speaker 1: their biggest four day drops in history. So a lot
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  Speaker 1: of people looking at that, and if you think about
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: what has been happening, part of this is where are
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: we when it comes to all coins and where Bitcoin's
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  Speaker 1: positioning is is Remember, cycling in and out of master
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: and buying Bitcoin has kind of been the strategy of
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: what Michael Saylor has been doing. But if you look
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  Speaker 1: at some of the points in the article right here,
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  Speaker 1: maybe some of this liquidity is now starting to move
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  Speaker 1: into some other areas, so rotating in to all coins,
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  Speaker 1: potentially other things. Compared to last cycle cycle nature of
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  Speaker 1: capital into Bitcoin and shifted the all coin market cap
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  Speaker 1: is all time high, indicates reduce fresh liquidity, So that
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  Speaker 1: means there's an opportunity and then all coins to reach
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  Speaker 1: new all time highs will require significant influx of fresh capital.
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  Speaker 1: That's the thing that I think we might be moving
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  Speaker 1: into right now. There's many reasons why. Further in this
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  Speaker 1: article they talk a little bit here about institutional investors
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  Speaker 1: allocating funds to major all coins. This mostly be I
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  Speaker 1: think the ETHTF why we might be seeing ethereum continue
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  Speaker 1: and move here recently in the last couple of weeks.
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  Speaker 1: Also this analyst, said corney Hill, the last two all
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  Speaker 1: seasons started three consecutive weekly closes after the last bitcoin
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  Speaker 1: dominance weekly high. So you had three closes weekly closes
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  Speaker 1: of bitcoin dominance. I want to go to the chart
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  Speaker 1: and show you what I'm talking about. Let's go over
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  Speaker 1: here real quick. Here is where we are right now.
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  Speaker 1: This is the weekly chart on dominance, and there's the
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  Speaker 1: two closes right now. If we get another close, is
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  Speaker 1: that the trigger? Because if you look back, we don't
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  Speaker 1: get too many of the three in a rows all
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  Speaker 1: the way back down here when you're looking back into
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  Speaker 1: what was that December the eleventh was the last time
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  Speaker 1: we saw that. So does it hold out? And do
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  Speaker 1: we see a run on all coins coming in next?
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  Speaker 1: If you look at this chart bitcoin dominant cycle, there's
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  Speaker 1: some key things here. This could be where we are
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  Speaker 1: right now because bitcoin dominance was decreasing. We just showed
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  Speaker 1: that in the chart price was decreasing. Today it's kind
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  Speaker 1: of retraced back up to around ninety six. I think
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: we're ninety six to four at time or recording and
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: guess what. All coins held stable pretty much. Solana took
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  Speaker 1: a little bit of a softer run, has retraced, Avalanche
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  Speaker 1: pretty much held, Ethereum held. Those are the ones I
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  Speaker 1: was watching to be able to kind of prove that out.
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  Speaker 1: So that is a potential here, all right. I want
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  Speaker 1: to jump back to the bitcoin dominance, and you guys
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  Speaker 1: remember what I was talking about there that December that
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  Speaker 1: we saw those three in a row right there. This
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  Speaker 1: is twenty three, all right, and that was when we
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  Speaker 1: started to see some acceleration on many of the all
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  Speaker 1: coins growing into the beginning of the year. Remember January
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: we had the ETF for the Bitcoin ETF, and then
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  Speaker 1: by March almost everything things like Solana, Avalanche, pretty much
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: everything was flying. So that's the close ratio that we're
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: talking about. If you just take a quick look at
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: where some of these are right now. Solon of course
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  Speaker 1: had that little bit of a weekly dripped down. Let
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: me go to the daily on Solana, it's starting to
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  Speaker 1: recover right now, back up to almost two forty. Avalanche
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  Speaker 1: pretty much held right here. You can kind of see that,
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  Speaker 1: and then if you even look at Cardono almost as
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  Speaker 1: well also held. But if you look at Ethereum, which
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  Speaker 1: is one I'm watching right now. This of course is
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  Speaker 1: up quite a bit here, almost breaking thirty six hundred.
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  Speaker 1: Could this be the leader into an all coin season
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  Speaker 1: coming in on top of all this, man December could
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  Speaker 1: be very interesting for sure. Other things to track on
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  Speaker 1: this is stable coin volumes, stable coin volume trading and
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  Speaker 1: surging up to one point eight trillion. This is happening
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  Speaker 1: in November. You'll get a couple of points here within this.
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  Speaker 1: Many people look at this as institutional confidence in the
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  Speaker 1: digital assets. I would have to say that is the
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  Speaker 1: way it's showing is that we're seeing a lot more
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  Speaker 1: money coming into stable coins that's prepping for acquisition and
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: some of these fast movers. This also places monthly trading
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: volumes on centralized exchanges to track yearly high so we've
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  Speaker 1: already seen some of that. Coin Base was number one
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  Speaker 1: on the app list not too ear in the app
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  Speaker 1: downloads not too long ago. Robinhood is flying. We're seeing
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  Speaker 1: a lot of activity within that tether of course, continuing
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  Speaker 1: to show strong performance, growing its market cap by ten
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  Speaker 1: and a half percent. That's pretty big just in a
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  Speaker 1: short period of time. One hundred ThReD and thirty three billion,
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  Speaker 1: so lots of money coming in. Circle also expanded its
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  Speaker 1: market cap by twelve percent thirty eight billion in November.
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  Speaker 1: So both these are tricking up. If you look at
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  Speaker 1: that little chart right there, that's what's going on, is
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  Speaker 1: that little margin right there. Both from an all coin standpoint.
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  Speaker 1: Other things I want to look at, of course, is
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  Speaker 1: notice on the regulatory side of things, and many people
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: would look at the SEC, the CFTC. We've talked about
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  Speaker 1: this and had both of the show before Eleanor hit
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  Speaker 1: this right here in terms of the Trump admin possibly
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: eyeing the CFTC to lead digital asset regulation. There's some
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  Speaker 1: benefits to this. Who are the chains that could win
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  Speaker 1: from this? At least initially I want to get into that,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: but before I do, I want to play a clip
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  Speaker 1: from Christian Giancarlo. He's been on our show before and
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  Speaker 1: this is a former CFTC chair. Take a look what
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: he had to say.
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  Speaker 2: This is why I do think a cryptos are is
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: critically important because there's a lot of promises, as you mentioned,
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: and they're across the board. Gard it's not just the
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: SEC chair does this. You need tax writers to make
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: sure that the moratorium on capitol gains taxes on us
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: crypto that he's promised has done. You're going to need
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: the White House Council's officer, the executive Orders to end
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: what they call choke point two point zero, the dbanking
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: of crypto. You're going to need somebody to run this
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Crypto Council.
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  Speaker 1: And you think you think he'll do it.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, I think he's committed to do it because it's
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: part of his overall. Look. Trump wants to create the
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: second Industrial Revolution in America and he thinks crypto is
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: one of the part of it. Well, along with nanotechnology, AI,
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: quantum computing, biotechnologies. If we could go from where we've
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: been the last few years, which resistance to innovation, to
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: really furthering innovation, we might be able to get to
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: that Fortnath set growth rate and get us out of
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: our all.
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  Speaker 1: Right, so interesting arguments there that he made. One, of course,
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  Speaker 1: is the CFTC side of things, where you know, some
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: of the regulatory environments before I go to all that.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: You know, he's hitting on something that I think is
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: very interesting, and that is Trump's analysis on piecing together
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: all these different technologies that could advance productivity. That is
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: a possibility I've heard Mark Andresen talk about this of
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: possibly getting us at least to where we can start
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: reducing the national debt. The only way to do that
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: is going to be doing it through productivity, and I
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: think crypto is going to be a very pivotal point
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  Speaker 1: of being part of that kind of building blocks of
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: what we need. So I agree with Chris. I think
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: that's why Trump will do it because of that. You've
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: got to go over and look at something that's happening
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: within the CFTC and some of the assets that they're
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: looking for when it comes to building the cryptocore platforms
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: within Nasdaq, and there are some things that they looked at. All.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: These were the different chains that were available, and these
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: are the different categories and whether or not they'd be
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: eligible for that core crypto exchange that would be tied
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: into NASTAC and many others. I think we're going to
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: see more of that. But Avax was yes across the
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: boards a lot of these only eight Avalanche, Bitcoin and
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: of course chain Link were involved in this. So you
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: can kind of see the highlights right there. But the
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: following assets meant eligibility criteria and maybe eligible for inclusion.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Bit becoeen Ether, Avalanche, chain Link, and likeoin asset based
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: on available data that the Nasdaq was obviously looking. All
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: this was set forth in the idea around this core
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: crypto platform. Regulation is going to be a part of this.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: I think CFTC will also play a big part of
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: this in terms of determining how these commodities might play out.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: All this very positive I think for the future of
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: crypto and digital assets in general. If you look at
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: theft at CFTC Commission, one of the things you got
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: to look at is some of the members within this.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Now there's a lot of names in here that you
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: probably let me zoom up on that for you guys,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: because I know it's hard to see a lot of
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: these probably not people outside fireblocks. Okay, I'll give that,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: But right there's em. There's Emin Gunserrier. This is Avalanche,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Ava Labs, so he's on this. And if you look
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: further into this, let's go down into the subcommittees and
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: again you've got Life's Work. There's a Christian there, a
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: handful of others, and then again Ava Lapse right there.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: We don't see many blockchains involved in this, so this
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: could be a factor in the fact that they've already
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: been approved potentially for involvement in core crypto platforms as well,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: so Avalanche again could be a big winner out of
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: all of this. Last up, of course, I want to
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: hit on, is what's happening over in Europe, and that
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: of course is XRP related. So bit Wise now introducing
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: their physical XRP ETP. This is available now, it's trading
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: in Germany's exchange. And of course the cool thing here
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: I think is the fact that Mika has already started
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: to set the standards in the EU for how a
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: lot of these regulations are going to be playing out
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: within the crypto environment. And of course XRP another big
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: one I think that's going to happen here in the US.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: We're going to see an XRP ETF. Whether it's from
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Bitwise or others, it's going to happen. And we're most
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: likely going to see a Salona coming at US pretty
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: quickly as well. So you guys take with that what
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: you can, because we're going to see I think, a
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: very big December. The big key here is how does
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: this cycle into the beginning of next year, and what
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: does that economy look like after January twentieth. That's a
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: big factor, so stay tuned. If you're not in a
• 13:14
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• 13:17
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• 13:19
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• 13:22
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• 13:24
  Speaker 1: chance to participate in those. We get a lot happening
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: this month, so stay tuned right here, Join the Diamond Circle.
• 13:30
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• 13:32
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• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: tech Bath. Thanks