Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / China May Exempt Some US Goods From Tariffs as Costs Rise
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- 0:23Speaker 2: The latest news from China is the Chinese government reportedly
- 0:26Speaker 2: considering the suspending its one hundred and twenty five percent
- 0:28Speaker 2: tariff on some US imports like medical equipment, industrial chemicals
- 0:32Speaker 2: like ethane.
- 0:33Speaker 3: So is this the.
- 0:34Speaker 2: First step towards actually coming up with some kind of deal.
- 0:38Speaker 2: Shawn don and Is, Bloomberg News senior economics writer joins
- 0:41Speaker 2: us now Sean is it.
- 0:43Speaker 4: I think what we're seeing here is some of the
- 0:45Speaker 4: same things that we've seen from the Trump administration so far,
- 0:48Speaker 4: and that is giving exceptions to the tariffs on imports
- 0:53Speaker 4: for kind of key things that the economy needs.
- 0:56Speaker 3: Right.
- 0:57Speaker 4: These are key inputs that Chinese people, are, Chinese companies
- 1:00Speaker 4: rely on from overseas. I see this not so much
- 1:04Speaker 4: as a as an accommodation aimed at Trump or at
- 1:09Speaker 4: the US terraffs, or at setting the state for negotiations,
- 1:12Speaker 4: more kind of shoring up the domestic constituencies and kind
- 1:16Speaker 4: of getting ready potentially for a more protracted trade war.
- 1:20Speaker 5: Sean, is this the type of news cycle we should
- 1:22Speaker 5: get customed to, which is country by country by country,
- 1:27Speaker 5: bilateral back and forth, press conferences, tweets about what we
- 1:31Speaker 5: might do, what we may not do. Is that how
- 1:34Speaker 5: we're going to go or is there going to be
- 1:36Speaker 5: something more I don't know, unified pronounced.
- 1:40Speaker 4: Look, I think for now we are really in this
- 1:43Speaker 4: kind of land of trying to figure out what's coming
- 1:45Speaker 4: down the pike, right, and that is in terms of
- 1:48Speaker 4: the impact of tariffs, and you see that in kind
- 1:50Speaker 4: of corporate earnings, people talking about a future impact right
- 1:54Speaker 4: as opposed to what has happened in quarters past. It's
- 1:57Speaker 4: all about the outlook ahead. And I think the same
- 1:59Speaker 4: apply to the economy. Now we'll get next week the
- 2:01Speaker 4: first take on US GDP numbers. That will give us
- 2:05Speaker 4: some indication of what happened in the first quarter, but
- 2:09Speaker 4: that really takes us, you know, through the end of March,
- 2:12Speaker 4: and that's before these these worst tariffs or the higher
- 2:15Speaker 4: tariffs that President Trump unveiled on April tecond come into play, right,
- 2:20Speaker 4: and we're only going to see those effects filtering through
- 2:23Speaker 4: the economy in the months to come. So in the meantime,
- 2:26Speaker 4: we get lots of kind of dueling narratives, if you will,
- 2:31Speaker 4: on what's coming up and whether we're getting closer to
- 2:34Speaker 4: our deal or not.
- 2:35Speaker 2: Here's a really basic question for you. Are China and
- 2:38Speaker 2: US administrators actually talking to each other about trade?
- 2:42Speaker 3: Well?
- 2:43Speaker 4: Look, I mean that's the huge question, and we don't
- 2:44Speaker 4: know the answer to that, right because it depends on
- 2:46Speaker 4: which side you believe. The US says they're talking, the
- 2:50Speaker 4: Chinese say they're not. And meanwhile, you know, we have
- 2:53Speaker 4: these tariffs that remain in place with a few exceptions.
- 2:57Speaker 4: We've also, you know, heard from the President again this
- 2:59Speaker 4: morning that you know, maybe a deal with Japan is close.
- 3:02Speaker 4: We've heard more cautious noises out of the Japanese side.
- 3:05Speaker 4: We had heard that perhaps a deal with India was
- 3:08Speaker 4: close this week. Well, what we got instead was an
- 3:12Speaker 4: announcement of a kind of framework for talks, right for
- 3:16Speaker 4: for negotiations. You know, I thought the most instructive comment
- 3:20Speaker 4: of the week came from Scott Bessant, the Treasury Secretary,
- 3:24Speaker 4: at this closed door JP Morgan meeting on Monday, where
- 3:28Speaker 4: which really caused the markets to pop when he started
- 3:31Speaker 4: talking about the need for a de escalation. But the
- 3:34Speaker 4: other thing he said there was that it's going to
- 3:36Speaker 4: be a long slog, and that's the word that he
- 3:39Speaker 4: used to a deal. It could take two to three
- 3:41Speaker 4: years to reach a deal between the US and China.
- 3:44Speaker 5: All Right, Sean, Let's say I'm China or Japan or
- 3:46Speaker 5: France or whomever, and I want to strike a deal.
- 3:50Speaker 5: Who do I call? Do I call Howard Ludnik, Secretary Commerce?
- 3:54Speaker 5: Do I call mister Benett? Do I call the President?
- 3:58Speaker 5: Who do I call?
- 4:00Speaker 3: Look?
- 4:00Speaker 4: I think at this point you try to call everyone,
- 4:02Speaker 4: but maybe the answer is you don't call anyone because
- 4:07Speaker 4: you just wait. And I think we've seen this week,
- 4:09Speaker 4: really how the markets are affecting the decision making in
- 4:16Speaker 4: Washington and inside the Trump administration, and how the US
- 4:20Speaker 4: in some ways may be negotiating with itself before it
- 4:23Speaker 4: really sits down and negotiates with the rest of the world.
- 4:26Speaker 2: All right, thanks so much, Tommy, really appreciate it, Sean
- 4:28Speaker 2: donn and he covers trade and economics right here on
- 4:31Speaker 2: Bloomberg Television.
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- 4:48Speaker 5: University of Michigan senment data came out better than expected.
- 4:51Speaker 5: Just looking at the headline number, fifty two point two
- 4:54Speaker 5: versus fifty point five was the consensus inflation. One year inflation,
- 4:58Speaker 5: which ticked up significantly last period, came in a little
- 5:01Speaker 5: bit better and expect it's six point five percent versus
- 5:03Speaker 5: the expectation of six point eight percent. So let's break
- 5:06Speaker 5: all this down with Joanne Shoe, Surveys of Consumers Director
- 5:11Speaker 5: at the University of Michigan. Johann talk to us about
- 5:14Speaker 5: this data here we got this morning.
- 5:17Speaker 6: Well, things came in a little bit better than what
- 5:19Speaker 6: we might have expected based on what we saw two
- 5:20Speaker 6: weeks ago. It's still a pretty negative read altogether. Consumers
- 5:25Speaker 6: are not feeling confident at all about labor markets, about
- 5:28Speaker 6: business conditions, or their personal finances, and that's something that
- 5:32Speaker 6: that definitely does not bode well for their spending going forward.
- 5:37Speaker 2: Why though, like, what are the biggest reasons for that?
- 5:40Speaker 2: And even though it's still a not great reading, it's
- 5:43Speaker 2: still a little bit better. So what accounts for that.
- 5:47Speaker 6: The number one thing on people's minds when it comes
- 5:49Speaker 6: to the economy is tariffs. So consumers did see a
- 5:52Speaker 6: little bit of relief after April nine, when a lot
- 5:55Speaker 6: of the reciprocal tariff announcements were paused temporarily, and we
- 6:00Speaker 6: saw inflation expectations come down just a touch after that happened.
- 6:04Speaker 6: But overall, consumers are still expecting inflation to come surging back,
- 6:09Speaker 6: They're expecting business conditions to weaken, and most critically, they
- 6:13Speaker 6: have downgraded their own income growth. Again, this is in
- 6:17Speaker 6: large part because of the volatility and tariff policy. Consumers
- 6:21Speaker 6: seem pretty convinced they're going to be high, but on
- 6:23Speaker 6: top of that, they see policy going left and right
- 6:26Speaker 6: and they're not really and they're aware that businesses will
- 6:28Speaker 6: struggle to plan, and so will consumers.
- 6:31Speaker 5: Do we have any sense as to spending at the
- 6:34Speaker 5: consumer level.
- 6:35Speaker 6: Join, consumers are telling us that they're really bracing for
- 6:40Speaker 6: a downturn in the economy, and you know, buying conditions
- 6:44Speaker 6: for big ticket items are really poor. It's sort of
- 6:47Speaker 6: a combination, though, of people who believe that if you
- 6:51Speaker 6: were to buy something literally right now you might be
- 6:54Speaker 6: able to avoid the price height that comes from tarffs,
- 6:59Speaker 6: along with people who realize that it takes more than
- 7:02Speaker 6: one day to make these big ticket purchases, and they're
- 7:04Speaker 6: really concerned it's too late.
- 7:05Speaker 2: On the flip side before let you go. The inflation
- 7:07Speaker 2: expectation numbers, though came down. I appreciate they're still elevated,
- 7:11Speaker 2: but at least with the five to tenure that stayed steady.
- 7:14Speaker 2: How sticky do you think that inflation where he is?
- 7:18Speaker 6: I think as long as tariff policies remains unresolved, things
- 7:23Speaker 6: will will still be hairy with inflation expectations. The consumers
- 7:29Speaker 6: are attuned and are highly aware of the major developments
- 7:34Speaker 6: in terariff policy. They're not necessarily watching day by day.
- 7:37Speaker 6: But the April second announcement, the April ninth announcement, those
- 7:40Speaker 6: were things that we clearly saw people reacting to in
- 7:42Speaker 6: the data.
- 7:44Speaker 2: All right, Joanne, thanks so much. We really appreciate the
- 7:46Speaker 2: instant breakdown, that instant analysis on the data. Joanne Schue
- 7:50Speaker 2: joining US University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director.
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- 8:09Speaker 2: Staying on big tech, take a look at Google. Batstock
- 8:11Speaker 2: is up by about two and a half percent off
- 8:13Speaker 2: the highs of the overall trading session if we count
- 8:16Speaker 2: a pre market trading. But the net net here is
- 8:19Speaker 2: the first quarter results beat expectations. You had continued strength
- 8:23Speaker 2: in that search advertising business, plus YouTube also continue to
- 8:26Speaker 2: crush it despite estimates. A teeny tiny bit light there,
- 8:30Speaker 2: I Dan, I have global head of technology research at
- 8:32Speaker 2: Webush Securities. It joins us now, Dan broadstroke rate the
- 8:36Speaker 2: quarter for Alphabet.
- 8:40Speaker 3: I'd rate it an A.
- 8:42Speaker 7: I mean, especially in terms of cap backs, when you
- 8:45Speaker 7: saw in terms of cloud spend, I think advertising relative
- 8:51Speaker 7: to the uncertainty, I mean, this was I think a
- 8:53Speaker 7: robust quarter across their book. There's still obviously anti trost
- 8:56Speaker 7: and concerns and obviously powerful concertainty, but I think it's
- 9:00Speaker 7: actually a good sort of sign going into the rest
- 9:03Speaker 7: of big tech next.
- 9:04Speaker 5: Week, Dan, how do you think about the threat to
- 9:07Speaker 5: Google's core search business from AI?
- 9:11Speaker 7: Now, look, there's definitely a threat, and I ironically that
- 9:14Speaker 7: threat actually is actually a support Froma's anti monopoly right
- 9:19Speaker 7: in terms of some of the anti trust. But to me,
- 9:23Speaker 7: it's a threat. But look at the advertising. I mean
- 9:26Speaker 7: the reality is like I'm not saying it's not a
- 9:28Speaker 7: long term headwind, but they're also going to benefit when
- 9:33Speaker 7: it comes to AI significantly on the cloud and Google,
- 9:37Speaker 7: as we've seen again and again, they're going to be
- 9:39Speaker 7: able to pivot.
- 9:39Speaker 3: And that's I just.
- 9:40Speaker 7: Don't view it as a massive threat like maybe some
- 9:44Speaker 7: others would view it.
- 9:45Speaker 2: Well, let's go to the cloud then, so it's AWS,
- 9:47Speaker 2: Microsoft and then Google. How quickly is Google catching up?
- 9:51Speaker 3: They're narrowing the gap.
- 9:52Speaker 7: I mean, look, Microsoft is their backyard right when it
- 9:55Speaker 7: comes to core enterprise core cloud. So Microsoft continues to
- 9:59Speaker 7: have just a I think of just the iron cloud grit.
- 10:03Speaker 7: You've seen success from AWS, but what Google, what Curiam's
- 10:07Speaker 7: done there, It's been a massive success story in terms of.
- 10:11Speaker 3: As it's played out.
- 10:12Speaker 7: I think that's important because that to me is gonna
- 10:17Speaker 7: be a big part.
- 10:17Speaker 3: You think some of the parts.
- 10:18Speaker 7: I mean, that's how you get an incremand we have
- 10:20Speaker 7: two hundred dollars press target like thirty for eight hours upside.
- 10:24Speaker 7: I think more and more as the cloud story plays out.
- 10:27Speaker 5: Hey, Dan, we saw that President Trump. He's kind of
- 10:31Speaker 5: made some comments about towards some of the European regulators
- 10:34Speaker 5: about maybe stepping back some of the regulation of artificial
- 10:37Speaker 5: intelligence AI. How important is that.
- 10:42Speaker 7: Well, Paul, I mean, and we've talked about before, right,
- 10:45Speaker 7: I think it's all part of this broad negotiation because
- 10:49Speaker 7: big tech has had a bullseye on their back from
- 10:52Speaker 7: Brussels an EU for years, right, I mean, fines for
- 10:55Speaker 7: big tech rooms aget a cup of coffee when it
- 10:58Speaker 7: comes to what's happened in.
- 10:59Speaker 3: Europe the AI. Look there.
- 11:02Speaker 7: I mean, this is a hard line stands, and I
- 11:05Speaker 7: think it's actually all part of even the broader tariff
- 11:08Speaker 7: negotiations in terms of them softening the stands. And that's look,
- 11:13Speaker 7: and that's something big tech has obviously been a huge
- 11:15Speaker 7: advocate for because they essentially Europe's like off almost off touch.
- 11:21Speaker 3: You can't even go into that market right now.
- 11:24Speaker 2: Fair enough, before we go to next week, what we're
- 11:26Speaker 2: going to expect, let's just kiss on Tesla here. So
- 11:29Speaker 2: your note earlier in the week before earnings, the code
- 11:32Speaker 2: red note caused a flurry in selling in the stock.
- 11:36Speaker 2: Do you still feel like it's a code red after
- 11:37Speaker 2: earnings or maybe change the color?
- 11:39Speaker 7: No, I mean I think we and the read it
- 11:41Speaker 7: was a code red because Musk had to make the
- 11:44Speaker 7: choice cock struck midnight Doge or Tesla cheers Tesla, and
- 11:49Speaker 7: I believe despite I'll say one two days a week,
- 11:51Speaker 7: it's the beginning of the end for Musket Doge. I
- 11:53Speaker 7: think in the Trump White House at such an important
- 11:57Speaker 7: time for Tesla in terms of autonomous in terms of
- 12:00Speaker 7: the lower cause vehicle, terms of robotics testing needs.
- 12:04Speaker 3: It's weed or back.
- 12:05Speaker 7: And that's why I think it's gonna be viewed historically.
- 12:09Speaker 7: It's probably the most important conference called Musk has ever had.
- 12:13Speaker 5: Talk to us about Apple. We're gonna hear from them
- 12:15Speaker 5: in just a few.
- 12:16Speaker 2: Days here, Dan, That's gonna be so fun.
- 12:18Speaker 5: That is what's the what's the call on Apple? What
- 12:21Speaker 5: are you gonna be looking for? What's the street looking for?
- 12:24Speaker 3: Look?
- 12:24Speaker 7: I think the quarter itself almost takes a back seat,
- 12:27Speaker 7: because you know, that's everyone's focused on just giving the
- 12:31Speaker 7: uncertain like how is Apple going to navigate this?
- 12:35Speaker 3: And to some extent like I'd be surprised if.
- 12:38Speaker 7: They actually gave guidance, or maybe they'd give guidance with
- 12:41Speaker 7: a huge caveat, because the reality is, especially when it
- 12:44Speaker 7: comes like the two thirty two TIFFs, in terms of that,
- 12:48Speaker 7: and you need to come out. You know, they're basically
- 12:50Speaker 7: going through logistics nightmare terms of chaos, the demands or
- 12:55Speaker 7: the longer term demands.
- 12:56Speaker 3: So the reason to own Apple, that doesn't change. But
- 12:59Speaker 3: in terms I think many.
- 13:01Speaker 7: On the street, they're basically going to toss out the
- 13:03Speaker 7: June quarter. I mean their focus is basically Junes them
- 13:05Speaker 7: all again. Yeah, and now you look to see what
- 13:09Speaker 7: happens ultimately come out of the White House from the
- 13:10Speaker 7: negotiation perspective.
- 13:12Speaker 2: So two questions on that. One, what we hear about
- 13:15Speaker 2: shifting supply chains quickly? There was an article out today
- 13:18Speaker 2: about getting a lot of sourcing from India, and too,
- 13:20Speaker 2: do we get any insight potentially into how much a
- 13:24Speaker 2: new iPhone with tariffs will cost?
- 13:27Speaker 7: Now they're going to I mean this is going to
- 13:29Speaker 7: be they're going to keep that very very close and
- 13:33Speaker 7: they're not going to discuss because because the reality right now,
- 13:35Speaker 7: they got to be careful, right because they are in
- 13:38Speaker 7: the eye of the.
- 13:39Speaker 3: Storm, just like gens in a video.
- 13:43Speaker 7: And that's why they they're ultimately beholden to what happens
- 13:46Speaker 7: in negotiations. But it's it's why it's so important. We've
- 13:49Speaker 7: talked about despite all the articles, and the reality is
- 13:54Speaker 7: it would take them years to even move ten percent
- 13:56Speaker 7: of the supply chain. So that's the reality that Cook
- 14:01Speaker 7: an Apple or seeing. But that's why the you know,
- 14:05Speaker 7: this call is going to be important to kind of
- 14:08Speaker 7: leigh out the scenarios at least how they're going through it.
- 14:13Speaker 5: In your broader world of technology, Dan, are there any
- 14:16Speaker 5: areas that are safer havens to be at given all
- 14:19Speaker 5: this global uncertainty?
- 14:22Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean we talked about it, you know, and no, yes,
- 14:25Speaker 7: I think like the safety blanket area is software. And
- 14:29Speaker 7: that's why the hyperscalers I think you saw from Goole,
- 14:31Speaker 7: I think that, I'll say the same thing from Microsoft.
- 14:34Speaker 7: You look at names like a Oracle, I think IBM,
- 14:36Speaker 7: despite that sell off, is a safe haven. Then themes
- 14:39Speaker 7: like Palanteer, like AI driven memes, that's some of the
- 14:42Speaker 7: high priority. And I tell you by it for the
- 14:44Speaker 7: first time in three weeks, some positive smart checks just
- 14:48Speaker 7: showing like Rock soild cap X not moving.
- 14:51Speaker 3: No one wants to lose their place in.
- 14:53Speaker 2: Line, okay, but to the to the solid cap X
- 14:57Speaker 2: is it shifting within that? So you don't want to
- 14:59Speaker 2: lose your place online?
- 14:59Speaker 7: I get that.
- 15:00Speaker 2: But at the margin, are we seeing any money flow
- 15:02Speaker 2: from say, enterprise to AI or out of AI and
- 15:05Speaker 2: the enterprise or some shifting on the margin there?
- 15:08Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you.
- 15:09Speaker 7: I mean, I think from a priority perspective, like within
- 15:13Speaker 7: IT departments, there's so much kind of freezing uncertainty. If
- 15:17Speaker 7: you're AI, you're you're with the cool kids. If you're not,
- 15:22Speaker 7: it's tough to get things approved. So I think that's
- 15:25Speaker 7: if you're on an AI focused project, that that's a
- 15:29Speaker 7: lot of stuff that's getting green with despite so much uncertainty.
- 15:35Speaker 5: Dan, thank you so much. Appreciate that as always, Dan ives,
- 15:38Speaker 5: oh real quick, then good first round for your Penn
- 15:40Speaker 5: State football players.
- 15:43Speaker 7: But I'm wearing my look, abdual Carter, I think it's
- 15:46Speaker 7: going to change the Giants along with Dart. You got
- 15:49Speaker 7: two penn Stators right top fifteen. You know, a huge,
- 15:52Speaker 7: huge day for Giants and pen Stators.
- 15:55Speaker 5: Yep, absolutely, so we appreciate that, Dan, huge, huge, Penn
- 15:58Speaker 5: State fan of Penn State grad there, so I want
- 16:00Speaker 5: to give the heads up again to Penn State football
- 16:03Speaker 5: players taken in the first round of the draft. Once
- 16:05Speaker 5: of Mike, you're a giant, So that's a good thing. Dan,
- 16:08Speaker 5: I've Schlobe ahead of Technology Research, Web Bush Securities. Let's
- 16:11Speaker 5: be honest. He peaked at Penn State, but he's kind
- 16:14Speaker 5: of doing the best he can.
- 16:15Speaker 2: He's doing all right, here's just okay, he's doing okay.
- 16:19Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 16:22Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
- 16:26Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you
- 16:29Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 16:32Speaker 2: All right, let's get to another stock on the move,
- 16:34Speaker 2: and that's Apple. The reporting is that potentially it's going
- 16:37Speaker 2: to move some iPhone manufacturing to India on a rograna
- 16:40Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence and your technology analyst joins us, Now, how
- 16:43Speaker 2: much stock should I put in this headline on a rug?
- 16:47Speaker 8: I mean, it is a very big deal for them
- 16:49Speaker 8: to double the production of Apple in India. This is
- 16:53Speaker 8: mostly assembly, but you know, frankly speaking, it's gone from
- 16:56Speaker 8: nowhere to just about twenty percent by the end of
- 17:00Speaker 8: for this year, so I mean last year. It's just
- 17:03Speaker 8: a big number frankly, and it was surprising to us
- 17:06Speaker 8: at this point, I'd sell.
- 17:07Speaker 5: What's surprising to me is you actually shaved You found
- 17:10Speaker 5: your razor and he shaved off his beard. So I
- 17:12Speaker 5: am all in favor of that, correct, Yeah, so anx so.
- 17:17Speaker 5: In reality, though, how do you and how does the
- 17:20Speaker 5: street think about Apple's ability to I don't know, reduced
- 17:24Speaker 5: to some degree. It's kind of reliance on China as
- 17:29Speaker 5: an end market, as a as a source in its
- 17:33Speaker 5: supply chain. How does the streak get comfortable with that?
- 17:36Speaker 1: See?
- 17:37Speaker 8: On the other hand, I do want them to stay
- 17:39Speaker 8: in China because that is their biggest growth market. That
- 17:42Speaker 8: that's the market where they have the most phones out
- 17:45Speaker 8: there right now. One of I don't think people understand
- 17:48Speaker 8: that they have more iPhones as an install base in
- 17:51Speaker 8: China than they have anywhere else in the world, and
- 17:53Speaker 8: yet their market share in that area is only twenty percent.
- 17:57Speaker 8: So for me, that's a very important end market. D
- 17:59Speaker 8: couple is not going to help Apple's growth story, but.
- 18:03Speaker 2: Does it help Okay, it doesn't help its growth story,
- 18:06Speaker 2: but does it help it manage tariff and margin pressures
- 18:09Speaker 2: over the next few decades, though, yes it does.
- 18:12Speaker 8: But at the same time, Apple is a company where
- 18:15Speaker 8: it has navigated the Chinese politics very well, probably better
- 18:19Speaker 8: than anybody else out there. Now, if they decide to say, Okay,
- 18:22Speaker 8: we're going to take a lot of this capacity and
- 18:24Speaker 8: move it outside, I do not know what kind of
- 18:26Speaker 8: backlash there's going to be by the Chinese government or
- 18:29Speaker 8: the Chinese consumer. Now that's we will still find out
- 18:32Speaker 8: what that happens. But you know, for me, it's an
- 18:35Speaker 8: important piece of the growth story. Roughly seventeen to twenty
- 18:38Speaker 8: percent of their revenue comes from China, and as I said,
- 18:41Speaker 8: it's a massively underpenetrated market for them. The US market
- 18:45Speaker 8: fairly saturated frankly all.
- 18:47Speaker 5: Right, So anrag in a world that is kind of
- 18:50Speaker 5: reeling from trade uncertainty, global trade uncertainty emanating from all
- 18:56Speaker 5: the tariff talk is replaced in technology to hide.
- 19:01Speaker 3: That's a very good question.
- 19:02Speaker 8: When you look at a direct impact, Apple is the
- 19:04Speaker 8: one with the highest direct impact. There are other companies
- 19:09Speaker 8: that really have no major exposure to China. I'm going
- 19:11Speaker 8: to bring up Microsoft as one of those names.
- 19:14Speaker 3: And this is where I think they will show.
- 19:18Speaker 8: I think the street over the next one to two
- 19:20Speaker 8: years that their growth rate will continue irrespective of what's
- 19:24Speaker 8: happening to the macro because of all the investments that
- 19:27Speaker 8: they are putting in GENNI. I think that story is
- 19:30Speaker 8: still not fully understood by the street just because all
- 19:35Speaker 8: the investments they are making. People are only considering capax.
- 19:38Speaker 8: But I think they're going to go ahead and take
- 19:40Speaker 8: more market share in cloud just because of all these investments.
- 19:44Speaker 2: Before I let you go. We got Google this week,
- 19:46Speaker 2: we got Texas Instruments next week, do get Apple. What
- 19:51Speaker 2: themes are emerging for you in some of these tech earnings, I.
- 19:55Speaker 8: Think the capital expenditure and what's going to happen, and
- 19:57Speaker 8: that is going to be one important thing. The second
- 19:59Speaker 8: thing I think, at least for now, things are not
- 20:02Speaker 8: as bad as we expected then to be. You know,
- 20:05Speaker 8: when you look at results from SAP service now you
- 20:08Speaker 8: know things things are not that bad. But having said that,
- 20:11Speaker 8: I think we have not seen the biggest brunt of
- 20:14Speaker 8: the slowdown coming in that probably motive is a second
- 20:16Speaker 8: half story. When Microsoft reports, the most important thing for
- 20:20Speaker 8: us is what's going to happen to that capital expenditures,
- 20:23Speaker 8: and I think that's the theme to follow, all.
- 20:26Speaker 5: Right, Hona Agrana, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
- 20:28Speaker 5: On Agrana, he does the technology thing for Bloomberg. Intelligency's
- 20:33Speaker 5: spaced out there in Chicago, which is most people don't
- 20:36Speaker 5: know is a burgeoning tech hub, and Anorog's blazing the
- 20:39Speaker 5: trail out there in Chicago certainly, So anyway we're going
- 20:42Speaker 5: to get here from Apple next week. That's gonna be
- 20:44Speaker 5: fascinating because you think about it. Of all the companies
- 20:46Speaker 5: out there that you know have exposure one way or
- 20:49Speaker 5: the other to China, the one that jumps out of
- 20:51Speaker 5: me is always as Apple because a twenty percent of
- 20:53Speaker 5: the revenue comes from Apple, and is Hono noted it
- 20:57Speaker 5: is the growth market or the leading growth both market
- 21:00Speaker 5: for Apple or one of them, and it's just an
- 21:04Speaker 5: integral part of their supply Chainnel. I mean, you think
- 21:06Speaker 5: China and making stuff, you think the iPhone, you know,
- 21:10Speaker 5: Fox con and all that kind of stuff.
- 21:11Speaker 2: So well, I mean, but also what are you saying
- 21:12Speaker 2: it's not just about making it, it's not selling it. Yep,
- 21:14Speaker 2: And that is a huge question mark there as well.
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