Latest / Political Capital with Rob Shaw / Negative Campaigning | Political Capital Daily

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Negative Campaigning | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 1: and this is Political Capital Daily.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: Well, good morning.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday to you. We're on our way through this
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: last week of the B.C. election campaign. We are down
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: to the final days before the election day on Saturday. So,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: of course, it is a blitz of news everywhere. If
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: you are looking to plan your day, B.C. Conservative leader
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Lauren Dirksen in and around Greater Victoria today for different events, rallies,
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  Speaker 1: that type of thing.
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  Speaker 3: And the B.C.
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  Speaker 1: Greens... at one o'clock in Sydney, have a rally with
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: new Vancouver Green Mayor, Pete Fry, which is fascinating because
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: in one of our first topics, we're going to talk
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: about Pete Fry showing up at an NDP rally behind
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: the Premier and BC NDP leader, David Eby. So there's,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: that's some, well, I'm sure there'll be some questions about that.
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  Speaker 1: To get into it, we have Nicole Broussard and Todd
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  Speaker 1: Stone here. Thank you both of you for getting up
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  Speaker 1: and doing the show so early.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, happy to be here. Thanks.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's all good, Rob.
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  Speaker 3: Enthusiastic.
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  Speaker 4: Yes, yes.
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  Speaker 1: More coffee is needed. I mean, I guess that is
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  Speaker 1: the sentiment we're all at. Let's just start with how
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: you're looking at things in the final few days of
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the campaign. Why don't we just begin there? We're at Tuesday,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: the election's Saturday. There's record advanced voting turnout, so a
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: lot of people have cast their ballots already. Um, but Todd,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: why don't we start with you? Like what, what are
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: you seeing and what are you expecting in the next
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  Speaker 1: few days? And what's your kind of view of the
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  Speaker 1: lay of the land here?
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  Speaker 4: Uh, I think at a, at a high level, I
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  Speaker 4: would say what I'm seeing is a, an increasingly confident
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: Lauren Dirksen and, um, you know, his BC conservative team. Um,
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  Speaker 4: Lauren seems to have a bounce in his step. He's,
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: he's pushing back hard, uh, as he's under increasing attack. Um,
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  Speaker 4: I think from the NDP, we're seeing increasing chippiness from
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  Speaker 4: David Eby. And, you know, in my experience working really
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: closely with a number of leaders is, you know, when
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: you're getting chippy and you're starting to, you know, kind
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: of hurl attacks outward, you not talking about your own
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: ideas and your own platform. And you, you tend to
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: be a bit more on the defensive, you know, things
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: are probably not going so well. Um, uh, that's not
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: to say that there isn't still time on the clock
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: and there's, you know, still a hell of a lot
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: of votes to be cast and counted. I think what
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: happens in the next four days, uh, it's going to
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: be all about, you know, get out the vote. Um,
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: you know, who, whose voters are more motivated, uh, to actually, uh, to,
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: to show up and vote for their, their party of
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: choice or their candidates of choice. Um, I think the
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  Speaker 4: key question for Lauren Dirksen and the BC Conservatives is,
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  Speaker 4: has Lauren done enough to overcome the fears that I
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  Speaker 4: think some British Columbians, particularly in the Lower Mainland, you know,
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  Speaker 4: maybe have had about, you know, let's call it the
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: hard right hangover, you know, from Carrie Lynn Finlay and
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  Speaker 4: so forth. And has he been able to position himself
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  Speaker 4: as someone who's, you know, in tune with and understanding
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  Speaker 4: of the challenges that folks in the Lower Mainland face,
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  Speaker 4: you know, affordability, healthcare, childcare, those things. And For the NDP,
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  Speaker 4: has David Eby done enough to convince voters that he
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  Speaker 4: and his party deserve another mandate after nine years in power?
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  Speaker 4: Is the desire for change going to overcome hesitations and
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  Speaker 4: concerns that people have about the perceptions of conservative politics?
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  Speaker 4: I think there's still time to see how this shakes out.
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  Speaker 4: I think it's still going to be pretty damn close
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  Speaker 4: at the end of the day when the votes are off.
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  Speaker 1: It does feel like it. It does feel like we're
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  Speaker 1: heading for another close one. Nicole, what's on your mind?
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  Speaker 1: I know that David Eby's popularity numbers continue to be low.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: You've worked, you know, on federal liberal campaigns where you've
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: had super popular leader like Mark Carney, and then what
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: we could charitably say a less popular leader like Justin Trudeau.
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  Speaker 1: And sometimes does that make it harder when the leader's
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: not as popular to kind of motivate people to get
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  Speaker 1: out and vote?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the leader is everything as we've seen
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  Speaker 5: in multiple federal elections. When your leader isn't polling well,
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  Speaker 5: the entire party isn't polling well. And even in the
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  Speaker 5: last federal election, when Mark Carney was really seen as
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  Speaker 5: the guy, we elected candidates all across British Columbia and
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  Speaker 5: in places that we hadn't elected people in years. Like
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  Speaker 5: we had two seats on the island that flipped for
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  Speaker 5: the liberals, which we hadn't seen in a generation.
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  Speaker 3: So yeah, it makes a huge difference.
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  Speaker 5: What I'm watching this week As Todd said, I always
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  Speaker 5: forget that Todd used to be a politician until he
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: gives an answer like that.
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  Speaker 3: And that was so well balanced.
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  Speaker 5: But I, yeah, and looking at the numbers and that
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  Speaker 5: Angus Reid poll came out today, I know we're going
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  Speaker 5: to talk about that. But that portability of the vote
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  Speaker 5: and who actually is really motivated to get out.
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  Speaker 3: And I think it's the change voters this time.
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  Speaker 5: It seemed like a lot more of the conservative base
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  Speaker 5: was entrenched and they were more motivated to get out
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  Speaker 5: and vote the government out. than maybe NDP supporters who
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  Speaker 5: had been looking at the record over the last nine
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  Speaker 5: years and couldn't really get on board with maybe some
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  Speaker 5: of the things or they were kind of soft orange
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  Speaker 5: voters before so I think when we're looking at the
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: horse race numbers it's very tight but when you get
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  Speaker 5: down to what that means riding level and then that
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  Speaker 5: get out the vote piece is going to be really
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  Speaker 5: really critical to make sure that we're getting all the
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  Speaker 5: ballots in the box that are necessary to flip some
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  Speaker 5: of those ridings and we've got some really tight races
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  Speaker 5: I think coming up so Who's ever doing these panels
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  Speaker 5: on election night is going to have a heck of
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  Speaker 5: a ride because it's going to go back and forth, I.
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  Speaker 3: Think, quite a bit.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is the virtue or the drawback or the
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  Speaker 1: benefit of our system that the popular vote doesn't always
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  Speaker 1: reflect the results because, as you put it, riding by riding,
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  Speaker 1: these races get decided and then the numbers start tallying up. And,
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  Speaker 1: you know, these numbers we're looking at in polls don't
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  Speaker 1: necessarily mean a tie if different regions like Surrey break
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: one way or another and kind of start to tilt things.
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  Speaker 1: I want to get both of your thoughts here on
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: a couple things David Eby said. He had a rally
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  Speaker 1: yesterday in front of a big Canadian flag talking about
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  Speaker 1: the Alberta separatist referendum. He talked about being Canadian and
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: not really Trump, but portraying the Conservatives as kind of
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: anti-Canadian with their support for Alberta separatism under KLF and
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  Speaker 1: members that are on separatist Facebook groups. He got questioned
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  Speaker 1: by reporters on why he continues to you know, call
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  Speaker 1: this election. Like he's still facing that question all these
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  Speaker 1: days into it. And the idea that he didn't have
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  Speaker 1: a one seat majority, like he said, he had a
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  Speaker 1: three seat majority at the time of a disillusion. So
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  Speaker 1: I want to just start with that and play this
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  Speaker 1: clip of David Eby here.
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  Speaker 6: I have to ask with respect, what election are you watching?
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  Speaker 6: Because this is the most negative, unbelievable crop of hateful
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  Speaker 6: candidates that we have ever seen. And they have just
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  Speaker 6: released a platform with backdoor health care cuts amounting to
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  Speaker 6: billions of dollars, a platform that doesn't add up.
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  Speaker 1: He did not like that question, and he didn't like
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  Speaker 1: this question either.
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  Speaker 6: If your point is that British Columbians are frustrated about
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  Speaker 6: the election call, I get that. I hear that. I've
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  Speaker 6: talked with a lot of British Columbians. They are frustrated.
• 8:16
  Speaker 6: Why do we need to have an election? And I
• 8:18
  Speaker 6: talk it through with people. And even sometimes then they're like, no,
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  Speaker 6: I still like they're like you, Rob. I still don't
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  Speaker 6: think you should have called the election. But I hope
• 8:27
  Speaker 6: that we can agree that this election is about so
• 8:30
  Speaker 6: much more than election timing. This election is about how
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  Speaker 6: we're going to grow our economy as a province, how
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  Speaker 6: we're going to reach out to the world and lead
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  Speaker 6: Canada's efforts to diversify our trade.
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  Speaker 1: Is it good or bad that David Eby is still
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: facing that question and appears kind of frustrated with it,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: you know, 20 some odd days into an election campaign,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: five days before a vote, Todd?
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  Speaker 4: I don't think it's good at all, Rob. And I
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  Speaker 4: say that for the following reason. We all remember John
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: Horgan calling an early election in the middle of the pandemic.
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  Speaker 4: And there were probably two or three days of some
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  Speaker 4: bad media coverage and British Columbians saying they're not happy
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: with the Premier's decision to have done that. And then
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: everybody forgot about it and went on to talking about
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: and health care and all the different issues in their
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: respective communities. The fact that this issue is still being
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: discussed and still being asked in media scrums and still
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: a major theme at all candidates' meetings in different parts
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  Speaker 4: of the province would reflect a deep, I think, disdain
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  Speaker 4: that British Columbians have for a decision that I think
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: they view as as deeply opportunistic. And, you know, I'm
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: trying to choose my words very carefully here, but he
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: did have a three seat majority. That is a tight majority,
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: but that is a workable majority. this election is going
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: to cost about 90 million dollars the results could be
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: very similar to what the the legislature looked like going
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: into the election that will really beg the question what
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: the heck was the point And if he loses his
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: majority and loses government, this will go down as one
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: of the worst political calculations probably that we've seen in
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: British Columbia in decades. So I just think the fact
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: that people are still talking about it is all you
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: really need to know about whether or not this was
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: a good decision for him to make in calling this early. Yeah.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: And Nicole, you deal in the world of messaging and communications.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: When you hear a leader responding that way to questions.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: What comes through your mind?
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  Speaker 5: Oh, the worst, the worst things imaginable. You always want
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: to have a positive message. And when you're looking at
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: the issues that British Columbians are grappling with right now,
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: when it's like affordability, inflation, like these really like personal
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: things when it comes to like your day-to-day life and
• 11:00
  Speaker 5: how things feel for you.
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: And when you get up in the morning to when
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: you go to bed and trying.
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: To make ends meet, when you see a premier or
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: leader get like defensive like that about why you're even
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: doing this, it just.
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  Speaker 3: Takes them off message entirely.
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  Speaker 5: You want to be positive in campaigns. You want to
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: show voters what the future could look like together. And
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: you almost forget sometimes when you're answering that question with
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: reporters that you're not just talking to the reporter and
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: you're not just giving that sass to the reporter. You're
• 11:28
  Speaker 5: giving that sass to everybody who's behind the camera who's
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: also listening. And sometimes I think people forget that when
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: they kind of get caught up in the moment of
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: the Q & A and responding and going back and
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: forth with reporters, that there's a whole group of people,
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: millions of people behind that camera that are reacting to
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: how you are handling those questions and whether you look
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: confident or not to run this province. And that's been
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: kind of a consistent theme throughout this. Like, do we
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: trust David Eby to have it together? And when he's
• 11:59
  Speaker 5: kind of going off rails and off message like that,
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: it's not even really about what he's saying.
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: It's about how it makes people feel.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's usually so much better at it, and
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: he's very good at it with a long political career.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: So you read into sort of the frustration that must
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: be coming to give answers like that. Okay, one other
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: thing I just want to highlight, then we'll take a
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: quick break. We don't need to talk about this, but
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: I just want to note it for people that he
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: was asked about revisiting proportional representation, which Emily Lowen has
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: said is her top idea. I'm sure she's going to
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: repeat it, canvassing with Pete Fry today. Senate South candidate
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Lisa LaPointe has also said the top issue for the Greens,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Eby saying no.
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: Not happening.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: There's been two referendums, actually been three. He crafted one
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: of them. They've all been rejected. We'll see if that holds,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: if it's a minority government where you need green support
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: and the Greens keep that as their top issue. But
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I cannot imagine jamming PR, a fundamental change to our
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: system through to benefit one party in a minority government negotiation.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: But that is what the Greens are asking for. And
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: that was what EB was asked about. And I'm sure
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Lorne Dirksen we'll get asked about as well. So okay,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: let's just take a quick break. And then we come back,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about the campaign platforms. All right, Political
• 13:16
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• 13:42
  Speaker 3: Now back to the show.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's get into the conservative election platform dominating the
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: debate yesterday as well. Both sides poking holes in each
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: other's math on their growth estimates, their funding sources, their
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: cost estimates, their just everything. I guess the takeaway from
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: both to me is that, man, the deficit isn't going
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: anywhere anytime soon. Even if you fiddle with the numbers,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: you're still at like 13%, 12%. 11, most optimistic in
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: year three, 10 billion in the record deficits as far
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: as the eye can see. And it's a really technical debate.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: We're talking about GDP growth numbers being 1% over private
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: sector forecasts in year three for the conservatives and Lauren
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Dirksen was asked that question. I'll just play his answer
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: to that.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that we are predicting roughly about 1%
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: more optimism in this province than the NDP. And frankly,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: I think it's completely achievable. I've talked to so many
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: industries that are just waiting for a change in government
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: to invest in this province. In fact, we sat around
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: a table the other day and I saw and recognized
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: that there was $ 1. 5 billion sitting at that table from
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: three different possible industries that are ready to commit, but
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: they're not ready to commit under this government. I think
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: the 1% extra is absolutely doable.
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: Ah, math.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is a big economic growth. It's bigger than,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: it's like double what we have right now. I don't know, Todd,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: the numbers... in an election campaign, on platforms, on these
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: type of things, are voters, how important are they, do
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: you think? And what did you make of the platforms
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: if you had a chance to read them?
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I took a quick look at both of them.
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: And sure, there's a lot of numbers in both of them.
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: And of course, if you're looking at the NDP platform
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: and its costing, you know, there's economists out there that say, uh,
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: you know, the numbers make sense. And there's others that,
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: that say, uh, uh, the numbers don't add up. And
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: the same is true of the, of the conservative platform.
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: You're right. There's a lot of red ink in both
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: of them. I mean, even the conservative platform, while it's,
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: it's more, you know, better than I, from my perspective, uh,
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: than the NDP's plan, you know, it's still, to your
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: point does provide for deficits of almost $ 50 billion over
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: the next four years. Um, uh, you know, it, it's, um,
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: I think it's more important, actually, to look at where
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: is each party actually looking to focus their attention and
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: time on economic issues moving forward. When you look at
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: the Conservative platform, they do spend quite a bit of
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: time talking about different forms of tax relief, reducing red tape. Obviously,
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: as someone in the resource sector, I'm a big fan
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: of the you know, supercharging investment and natural resources, you know,
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: this whole concept of one project, one review, approval timelines,
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: they actually have a whole section, a tremendous amount of
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: detail with respect to, you know, mining and critical minerals
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: and energy, LNG, you know, all of these different facets
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: of our economy, not to mention, you know, innovation and
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: some other sectors. So I think they're focusing a lot
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: of very tactical, you you know, strategies on different sectors
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: to try and fire them, you know, fire them up
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: a bit. And I think that's, frankly, more important at
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: this point than trying to make sense of, you know, okay,
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: is it really a $ 13. 6 billion deficit in 26, 27,
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: or is it a $ 15. 6 billion deficit? It's going to
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: be a big deficit. The province is in a pretty
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: significant you know, economic, it finds itself in a pretty
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: significant set of economic challenges right now, regardless of who's
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: in power. And I just, you know, looking at the
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: emphasis of each party on the economy, you know, I
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: would certainly, I certainly think that the Conservatives, you know,
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: are much closer to be focusing on the things that
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: are actually going to make a difference to get us,
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: move us away from this massive overwhelming focus on the
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: public sector and growing the size of government and government's
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: the solution to all our problems, just make government bigger,
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: to a thriving, you know, growing private sector and private
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: sector employment, private sector investment. So I think that the
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: Conservatives have addressed, you know, some pretty interesting areas there
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: that I think will make a difference.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there are two different um, plans for the economy
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: for sure. And you've pointed out a lot of the,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: that sort of business focused kind of tax relief things
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: in the PST exemptions for the capital, uh, expenses of
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: businesses and that type of thing. But there, you know, for,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: for ordinary people, Nicole, I look at them and I go,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: holy moly. Like if we are hoping for a campaign
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: miracle on getting us out of our pickle on finances,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: it's not to be found in any of these plans.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: The only one that actually has it is the BC
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Greens with this idea of taxing the wealthy people and
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: generating $ 22 billion in a single year, hoping they don't
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: move away and continue to pay that. But we're in
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: a deep financial hole was my kind of takeaway from
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: reading those. I don't know if anything stood out to you.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: Absolutely.
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: And at a certain point, that narrative starts canceling each
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: other out. And then you start looking in those platforms
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: for things that resonate with you, the more retail politics
• 19:14
  Speaker 5: side of things. Because if you're looking at this math
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: and then they're both firing shots at each other, saying
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: that each other's math is wrong. it gets really difficult
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: to hang your vote on that and to believe that really.
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: And again, as we've talked about before, it's really difficult
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: to put together these platforms until you get into government
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: and you crack open the books and you kind of
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: see what you're working with, what kind of contingencies can
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: be built in, where you can get that growth from,
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: what the market looks like at that time. But the
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: one thing that I was interested to see was almost
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: a copycat of Mark Carney's federal investment summit that happened
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: in Toronto in September. The BC Conservatives wanted to do
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: a very similar one here in Vancouver that would attract
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: the world, they say, to Vancouver to encourage foreign direct investment.
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: And I think it's a good idea.
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: We've seen this in different iterations under the BC NDP,
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: but not maybe done with, I would say, the same
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: gravitas or effort that maybe the federal government has done.
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: And so I would like to see Vancouver really showcased
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: in that way. I think there have been a lot
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: of federal programs, Defense Bank, for example, or other federal
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: initiatives that could have been housed in Vancouver. And I
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: think if we had the backing of a provincial government
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: that could really push on those, we might see more
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: of that investment landing in British Columbia. We've got a
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: lot of major projects that have been put on the list,
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: and I think that's good. But at a certain point,
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: my sense is that things are happening to B.C., not
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: because of B.C., And we do need to kind of
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: get into the game. There's been a lot of talk
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: about this federal BC MOU and hanging their hat on that.
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: But really, if they had gotten in the game sooner,
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: I think we could have got more out of that.
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: So that's one of those examples where I just think
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: we need to have very collaborative governments moving forward. We
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: need to get in the game in terms of investment attraction.
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: And we really need to not vilify certain sectors as well.
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: There's like this is a situation of high tides raises
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: all boats and all British Columbians do benefit when our
• 21:06
  Speaker 5: economy is doing well. And so we need to kind
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: of put some of these things aside. We've been talking
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: about LNG forever, which is great, but there are a
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: lot of segments of the economy that do need some
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: attention that have been kind of left to the wayside.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure.
• 21:18
  Speaker 6: Okay.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Well, just in the time we have left quickly, I'm
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: interested in your thoughts, both of you on the Angus
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Reid poll. It has a somewhat tightening kind of position
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: here for the conservatives and NDP now within the margin
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: of error-ish in the 40s, mid-40s. So I guess that's
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: the best way to kind of describe that poll. But,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: you know, when we put it into the sort of
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: aggregate polling numbers that I've been trying to use in
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: this campaign, we have, you know, different ways to view
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: polling at this point and different ways to kind of
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: view how we consider everything that's coming together. What Are
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: we in a near tie? Does it feel like that?
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Is that kind of where we're at to both of you?
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: It seems like where Angus Reid is at. And is
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: that how you're feeling? Or is there anything else to
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: take away from this poll, Todd? Why don't you start
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: with you on that?
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: Sure.
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: Well, I think all of the public polls have been
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: fairly consistent, at least the most credible polling firms. And uh,
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: you know, Nicole, I, I think talks to people in,
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: you know, on, um, in, in her world, I talk
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: to people in my world. And, and so we have
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: a bit of visibility perhaps into, you know, what the
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: parties think yet where they think they're at. And generally
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: I think it jives, uh, with, with what we see
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: in these public numbers. Um, you know, the, the cons
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: seem to have maintained, uh, you know, a two to
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: four point lead for, for quite some time. Um, The
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: Conservatives lead in the interior, the north in the Fraser Valley,
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: the NDP lead on Vancouver Island, and it's a statistical tie,
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: generally speaking, in the lower mainland. What really matters is
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: when you drill into the regions within the regions. So,
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: you know, what is going to actually happen in Surrey
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: and the 12 seats in Surrey? You know, what's going
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: to happen north of the Fraser in places like, you know,
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: Port Moody and Coquitlam? what's going to happen in Vancouver, Langara, and,
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: you know, Yaletown and so forth. These are all, you know,
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: areas of the lower mainland and seats that the Conservatives,
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: you know, have to flip if they're going to have
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: a chance of forming government. I would say one final
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: thing on this. The NDP vote is a lot more
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: efficient than the BC Conservative vote is. And that was
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: the same when we were the BC Liberal Party. we
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: typically on the center right, we run up huge margins
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: in the interior of the north, like massive margins. And
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: the NDP can win a whole bunch of seats in
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: the lower mainland by 200 votes and 500 votes, right?
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: So it's really truly going to come down to, I believe,
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: 10 or 12 seats in the lower mainland. We could
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: probably agree on most of them between the three of us,
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: And whoever is able to win most of those seats
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: is going to form government. And it's likely going to
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: be a small majority for whoever that is.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: It feels like every election since 2017 minus the 2020 blowout.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: But that's like our provincial deadlock right now, Nicole. And
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: maybe we're heading to it again. But anything stand out
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: for you here?
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think I want to just mention the municipal
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: election that obviously took place over the weekend and the
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: significant number of incumbents that lost and the appetite for
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: change across British Columbia. And it wasn't even just their
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: voting left or right. It was just a change election.
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: And so I think we would be remiss if we
• 24:40
  Speaker 5: didn't heed that warning, if the NDP didn't heed that
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: warning and really go hard on GOTV to get out
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: their vote because it is very much seeming like British
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: Columbians would like a change. Life isn't great. And they're
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: willing to take a shot on somebody else. And so
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: that is, I think, the biggest takeaway for me from
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: this weekend. And then also looking at that seat count too,
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: I think some of the aggregates had the Conservatives at
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: about 70% chance of winning a majority.
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: What that majority looks like, we'll see.
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: And whether or not the Greens actually factor into maybe
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: a future confidence and supply agreement is another kind of
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: wrinkle to our 3D chess that we're doing right now.
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: But what the Conservatives results look like on election night.
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: But those are the two things that I'm considering the most.
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: So don't ignore those signs, I think, from the electorate.
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: And it was just a week ago. So we have
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: to pay attention to it.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure.
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: Hey, Rob, I just want to echo what Nicole said there.
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: I totally agree. I think the NDP have to really
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: pay close attention to the message that voters sent in municipalities.
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: And if you look at the Angus Reid poll or
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: the last Leger poll, you know, over 50% of respondents
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: in these polls believe the province is on the wrong track.
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: Like that's not good for an incumbent government, right? So
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: that would suggest that what we saw play out in
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: the municipal scene is very potentially going to play out
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: on the provincial scene, that desire for change. And if
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: that really truly is what takes hold, it could be
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: a tough night for the NDP.
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: And people showed up too in this municipal election in
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: ways that they hadn't before, maybe driven by the conversation
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: we're having every day here about politics. So there's a
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: bit more intensity around it than it would be if
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: it was just a civic election. But I wonder if
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: this will play a factor into election day provincially as well,
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: or people will just be so annoyed or not know
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: where to put their vote, they'll just stay home. And
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: so there's a lot of a lot of unknowns, I
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: think in this election, but there's some very smart people
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: in both camps that are running the numbers.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: So, or the great irony, what if, uh, angry voters, uh,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: you know, upset at the snap election, took it out
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: on the wrong level of government and punched municipal politicians.
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: In the face.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: And then they're going to go into the net and
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: the provincial election and be like, okay, let's make a
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: rational choice here. And, uh, if that occurs, David, I.
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: Think voters are smarter than politicians give them credit for sometimes. And,
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: their vote is their vote and they can do whatever
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: they want with it. And so anybody, whoever complains about
• 27:05
  Speaker 5: the results of an election, it's like, no, we got
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: to choose who we wanted and that's what happened. So
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: either you didn't do a good enough job telling your
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: story or you didn't talk to enough people. So I'm, yeah,
• 27:15
  Speaker 5: I'm very interested to see what happens.
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: On election day.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: Voters are never wrong as they say.
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Todd and Nicole, I appreciate you both coming on the
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: show so early in the morning. Thanks so much for
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: being here.
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: That was so much fun. Have a great day. Both
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: of you.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: And thank you, everyone, for listening. We got more Political
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Capital Daily each and every day this week, heading up
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: to a special election show on Saturday night on CHECK TV.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Hope you join us for those and everything else that's
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: happening this week in BC Politics. Take care.