Latest / Closing Market Report / Aug 31 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260831 The August 31, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, covers daily market settlements, global trade dynamics, regional basis movements, and historic severe weather. Agricultural economist Joe Janzen discusses Colombia’s growing role as a top destination for U.S. corn and soybean meal, advising growers to carefully weigh storage and interest costs against harvest time cash flow needs rather than leaving grain unpriced. Purdue University’s Josh Strine outlines late-summer basis trends, noting widespread corn basis weakness across the Eastern Corn Belt alongside sharp soybean basis gains concentrated in Western Iowa. Finally, Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford reviews the state's record-shattering 2026 tornado count, which surpassed 200 following major outbreaks in April and June. 02:00 Sabbatical Insights from Columbia and the Grain Trade 15:38 Corn and Soybean Basis thru July and August 19:18 Not Quite Tornado Alley but Getting There --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report for the 31st day of August, 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Joe Janzen. He is in Colombia on sabbatical, looking at the expanding marketplace there for both corn—it is the number three corn importer from the United States—and of soybean meal. If you’ve been wondering where all of that’s been headed out of the U.S., a good deal of it is going to Colombia. We’ll talk with Joe about Colombia’s experience, the trade deal that put it into play, and then we’ll discuss what producers might do about grain sales and marketing for this fall, as well. We’ll turn our attention to the weather as we wrap up, but not the forecast—rather, the extraordinary number of tornadoes Illinois has suffered this calendar year. And along the way today, we’ll take a look at how cash basis has changed over the last month throughout the Corn Belt, right here on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: September corn for the day settled at $5.15, up three. December, $5.37 and 3/4, a penny and a quarter higher. And the March contract up one, $5.52 and 1/4 the settlement price. November beans unchanged, $12.88 for the day. January at 13.03 and 1/4, 1/2 higher. Bean meal futures down $3.60. The bean oil futures, $0.09 lower. Wheat futures for the soft red December, a dime lower at $7.74 a bushel, and the hard red December at $8.38, down 6 and 1/4 cents. Live cattle futures up $0.95. Feeders, $0.50 higher, and lean hogs, $1.77 and 1/2 higher. Crude oil at $85.74 a barrel, up $2.34. Joe Janzen, agricultural economist with the farmdoc team on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the University of Illinois, now joins us from Colombia, the nation. Hi, Joe. You’re on sabbatical this year. Thank you for taking time with me today and agreeing to join us to talk every month about the marketplace while you’re on sabbatical. First, for those who don’t know what a sabbatical is, can you explain it? 02:00 Sabbatical Insights from Columbia and the Grain Trade Joe Janzen: Yeah. So, one of the things—and I think everyone would say the job of a university professor is unique—and one of the unique aspects is that we’re tasked with sort of keeping our knowledge about the world up to date. And one of the ways that we can do that is to take some time away from the university to go somewhere else and learn something. So, I am spending this academic year in Bogotá, Colombia. And you might say, “Well, why go why go there?” For my research program, as someone really interested in corn and soybean markets in the global commodity trading world, this is really kind of an excellent place. Not a lot of people know that Colombia is one of our biggest trading partners with the United States when it comes to corn, soybean meal, and a lot of feed grains. So, this is a great place to learn about sort of like what is when we talk about export demand for U.S. ag commodities, what does that look like? And so that’s what I’m going to be spending this year doing here in Colombia. Todd Gleason: So, I assume you’re going to try to figure out one, how it went from a developing market to an expanding market, I think, over the last decade. It is what, the number three export destination for corn from the United States? Joe Janzen: Yeah, in any given year, number three or number four. It’s right there with South Korea. So, Mexico, obviously, our biggest trading partner for corn, Japan, and then South Korea and Colombia. And it’s really a fascinating story. It kind of hearkens us back to an earlier era of ag trade. The reason why we are sending so much corn and so much soybean meal to Colombia really has to do with a free trade agreement that was signed back in 2010 that really didn’t fully come into force until about the last five years or so, but has provided duty-free access to the Colombian market for U.S. corn. And that’s been a major success story. When we talk about, “Why did we have really strong corn exports last year?” Well, it’s the kind of market development work that was done, I think in a little bit of a different era, maybe slightly less antagonistic era of ag trade discussions, but one that really opened up this market here in Colombia to U.S. corn and U.S. soybean meal. And that’s been—you know, one of the things that you sort of realize is that we sign these agreements not necessarily knowing what are the market conditions under which they’re going to sort of play out. But one of the things that we’ve needed, right, is a big market for U.S. soybean meal. We’ve had this boom in the use of soybean oil for biofuels. We’ve got all this meal; what do we do with it? Well, one of the things we’ve done is started to really ramp up exports of soybean meal, and Colombia is one of the markets that soaked up some of that demand. Todd Gleason: So, this is an expanding marketplace. You’re there to learn, I suppose, both about how it developed, which you just kind of explained, and what the what the potential is. But it is a different tact that is than what is currently being taken, which is short-term and very fast agreements that sometimes and most times expire. This one was put in place, didn’t really pay off until the last, I don’t know, five years or so. Joe Janzen: Yeah, that’s right. So, a free trade agreement signed in 2010, and, you know, when a country sort of gives up some degree of market access, oftentimes they don’t want to do that overnight. And that’s sort of one of the reasons why the trade negotiations that we have right now are so hard, because everyone wants everything right away. This was not the case in the free trade agreement that the United States signed with Colombia. It took 12 years to fully phase the agreement in, to get full tariff-free access to the Colombian market. But it really has paid off. I mean, the United States sent almost $2 billion worth of corn to Colombia last year. That’s a big deal. Todd Gleason: Are they feeding animals for domestic consumption, or for domestic consumption and export both? Joe Janzen: Most of the most of the livestock is going to be consumed here in Colombia. There’s a bit of a regional market where they’re shipping meat to other countries nearby, but it really is mainly a domestic market that is, you know, growing over time. Todd Gleason: And is the bean meal mostly for the livestock, or are they processing that in— Joe Janzen: Same thing. There’s a lot of poultry demand, similar to what it would be here in the United States. Todd Gleason: Okay. Now let’s turn your attention to what you think you might be studying as the expansion part of it. What does that look like, or what are you exploring? Joe Janzen: Well, we really want to understand, especially what are the—we know that countries are going to be in the market for U.S. ag commodities, but really on a higher-frequency basis. Like when we’re thinking about right now, we’ve seen a big run-up in corn and soybean prices, and I think one of the questions would be: Does that kind of destroy some of the demand that might have existed at lower price levels? And so, what I want to do in my own research is more closely understand how do importers react when they see rising prices. We have seen really strong export sales, say, for soybeans in the last few weeks, but at some point, a high price means those importers back out of the market and say, “This is too much.” And so, really understanding that reaction function, and then how does that translate into price action that we see that’s really relevant on the ground for producers in a place like Illinois. Todd Gleason: On that note, many will have have been saying on the air with us that the reason these exports, particularly to China, are taking place is political and they’re willing to buy political capital in order to negotiate with President Trump. Can you suss that out so that you understand what’s really happening to these export markets? Joe Janzen: You know, that’s something I think we’re going to be able to hopefully shed some light on, both because we have a really detailed export sales data system in the United States, and because I’m also going to try and match that up with the data that exists on trade flows coming into a country like Colombia. That’s kind of why I’m on the ground here, to try and understand that. But you’re right, that does make it much more complicated when the motives that buyers have are really what we economists would call heterogeneous, or really different across maybe export destinations. Todd Gleason: So, I was wondering, quite frankly, whether, because you’re on sabbatical and the things that you are studying, whether you would be in the daily markets, but you certainly have to be. So, I do have some questions for you as it’s related to the current markets and how producers in Illinois and across the United States ought to think about them. I want to give you some background at least so that you know where we’ve been at on the air. In July, on that July 4th weekend, when things for me personally changed because of the Russia-Ukraine were going to attack each other’s ports function, and it was clear that that was going to escalate, and that the United States-Iran war also was going to not end, and the MOU was not going to be good anymore because things were escalating there, and it looked as if and still looks as if that’s going to not be settled anytime soon. And then there’s this SRE function that’s taking place. How do you put all of those together with the rally that we’ve had, and what producers need to think about for corn and soybean marketing? Joe Janzen: Yeah. I think you could certainly look at this as, you know, a lot of the fundamental factors that you’ve talked about, I think all—well, other than the SREs, but certainly the geopolitical stuff and the weather that we’ve seen in the U.S. Midwest, which is obviously the biggest weather story from a global crop perspective right now—those things really moving prices higher. And I think that maybe presents an opportunity to the grower. We’re going to be moving into harvest here, and I think the one thing I’m sort of thinking about is just on that weather story, still maybe a lot more uncertainty about U.S. crop yields right now than maybe we might be used to at a time when we’re right on the cusp of harvest. So, I think there’s a lot of maybe potential risk there, and the market is sort of presenting an opportunity for for some degree of sales. Obviously, we’re going to think about—and I’ve got some work thinking about just sort of like, what does that harvest-time price dip look like, and how might that affect producer marketing? We don’t want to put ourselves in a situation where we’ve got to move a lot of grain in a short amount of time. So, kind of giving from the producer’s perspective, I think a lot of those stories are maybe priced into the market to some degree. If there is some resolution on any of them—whether that’s maybe yields aren’t quite as bad in the in the Corn Belt as one might think, if sort of some of the geopolitical tension is maybe tamped down in the run-up to a midterm election—there are some reasons why you don’t want to sort of paint yourself into a corner from a grain marketing perspective. Todd Gleason: So, you are wait-and-see for what, a week? Or, market what I need to use to pay things off, or I don’t—where do you stand? Joe Janzen: You want to really pin me down here, don’t you, Todd? Todd Gleason: A little bit. Joe Janzen: Yeah, absolutely. I think you want to have—I mean, these current price levels, a bean price now on the board that’s approaching towards $13, corn prices well in the $5s, are levels that should engender some profitability for most operations. So, I think we don’t want to go into a situation where we’ve got a ton of unpriced grain coming off the combine in a situation where we don’t have a clear plan for when that grain’s going to get delivered. That doesn’t mean we need to move it all off the combine. My comments on sort of marketing into a harvest low are with that in mind. But at the same time, delivering grain at harvest in many cases can be some of the most profitable sales of the year, particularly in a time when the market is saying, “We do really want to pull grain into the supply chain. We do think the U.S. crop is a little bit tight.” So, I would want to have moved a significant share. What “significant” means to different operations is a different thing, but having some sales where that grain is delivered and we’re generating cash flow in the one- to three-month time horizon as opposed to the three- to nine-month. Todd Gleason: This is where knowing total cost of storage, whether it’s on the farm or at the elevator, really makes a difference, and including the interest on the cash that’s not in the bank. Joe Janzen: That’s absolutely right. You really want to think about sharpen your pencil from a profitability calculation standpoint when we’re thinking about deferring sales into into a new calendar year. Obviously, there’s a lot of uncertainty in our markets that we have right now, but opportunity is coming with that uncertainty. If you can, just looking at sort of what the market is offering from sales at harvest versus sales into the new year, I know there’s some pretty significant spreads between that December and March futures contract, particularly for corn, that might sort of make it pretty profitable. But producers have to really understand their cost of cost of storage and what they’re giving up by holding grain into a new marketing year. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Joe. Joe Janzen: Thank you, Todd. Todd Gleason: Joe Janzen is an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, a member of the farmdoc team, and joined us from Bogotá, Colombia, where he’s taking sabbatical this year to study the development and expansion of marketplaces like Colombia that has been importing both corn and soybean meal at record paces over the last few years. 15:38 Corn and Soybean Basis thru July and August Todd Gleason: Up next, you know very well that basis, or the cash price, spot price of corn, soybeans, other commodities, can be very different than what is portrayed at the futures market. Over the past month, corn basis to September futures fell by as much as $0.27 per bushel across the Eastern Corn Belt, with only gains limited to about $0.05. Soybean basis movement was more variable: losses reached $0.24 a bushel, while gains were as high as $0.20. Josh Strine, who is a graduate research assistant in Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, says the corn basis took a hit. Josh Strine: Corn basis weakened in 30 of 41 crop reporting districts between the third week of July and the third week of August. While the region-wide weakening broke the trend of gains that had built through the summer, it aligned with historical season patterns. Basis weakened the most in Southeast Indiana, where it fell by $0.27 per bushel to reach -$0.32. That is the weakest basis in the district for this time of year since the 2009–2010 crop year. Sharp declines extended across the southern parts of Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio, consistent with the $0.20 per bushel decrease in basis along the Ohio River. Ohio’s picture was more mixed. Central Ohio weakened just $0.03 to +$0.17, sitting $0.17 above its three-year historical average. However, East Central Ohio fell by $0.22 over the past month to -$0.16, now $0.30 below its historical average. Todd Gleason: By the way, Iowa corn basis, says Strine, took the biggest negative numbers. Josh Strine: Iowa corn basis remained the weakest market in the five-state area. Northeast Iowa ended the period at -$0.40 per bushel, $0.51 below its three-year historical average. Iowa ethanol plant basis averaged -$0.18, $0.50 below its historical average. However, Iowa’s movement was among the most stable: six of Iowa’s nine districts had modest gains over the month. As other markets fell and Iowa held steady, the gap between Iowa and the rest of the region narrowed heading into September. Todd Gleason: Soybean basis saw some stronger numbers. Josh Strine: Turning to soybeans, basis in 17 crop reporting districts strengthened and 23 weakened. The largest move came out of Iowa. West Central and Southwest Iowa each gained $0.24 per bushel, ending the period with cash prices above futures. Several Western Iowa districts reported their highest basis level for this time of year in over a decade. The Iowa soybean processor market amplified this trend: basis increased by $0.41 per bushel to +$0.43 per bushel. Todd Gleason: Soybean gains were more modest and scattered outside of Iowa. Josh Strine: Indiana and Ohio posted the strongest movements, with West Central Indiana gaining $0.08 and West Central Ohio gaining $0.10. Michigan was the only state where every district declined, with losses ranging from $0.03 to $0.18 per bushel. The steepest decline came in South Central Ohio, down $0.20, and Southwest Indiana, down $0.18. The soybean basis map looks meaningfully different from July. The most dramatic shift was in the Western Iowa, which moved into positive territory for the first time this crop year. Heading into September, the highest basis is concentrated in Central Indiana. Todd Gleason: Again, that was Josh Strine of Purdue University. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. This public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you’d like to listen at willag.org—that’s willag.org. 19:18 Not Quite Tornado Alley but Getting There Todd Gleason: Now up next, something just a little bit different than our usual weather segment, as Mark Russo is not available today. Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford continues to add up the tornadoes, he says, in 2026. And the numbers just keep climbing. 15 have occurred in August, pushing the state over the 200 mark, shattering the previous state record of 142 that was set in 2024. Trent Ford is in the process, of course, of putting together a 2026 timeline. The first outbreak, he says, occurred in February. Trent Ford: Mid-February, we had a tornado outbreak of about 14 tornadoes that strewn across Southeast Illinois from Effingham County over to the Indiana border. So, of course, tornadoes in February aren’t unforeseen, but they’re not necessarily something we see common, especially tornado outbreaks. Todd Gleason: Conditions did not line up in March. Trent Ford: March, we also had multiple tornado outbreaks. There was one along the I–70 corridor from roughly kind of the St. Louis Metro East area up to the Effingham area. We also had those really intense storms that moved across from LaSalle to Kankakee. I mentioned the hail that was dropped from some of those storms. So, we had about 30 tornadoes or so in March, which is way above where we normally see. I mean, normally we’re at, you know, a fraction of that for March. Todd Gleason: And then Ford says things really escalated in April. Trent Ford: April was our really big month. We had about 70 tornadoes in April, multiple tornado outbreaks. Most of those were in Central Illinois, including a lot in in Logan County and Tazewell County. Those are the hotspots in April. And then a few in Northern Illinois as well, including that EF2 Lena tornado that was up there. That was a pretty intense event, especially. Todd Gleason: There was a big contrast between May and June. Trent Ford: May was actually our off month. Normally May is actually our most frequent. We only had one tornado in May. So everybody caught their breath and thought, “Oh, this is good. We’re done with tornadoes.” And then we had almost 90 in June, and that was strewn across the state, again, kind of hotspots in Central and Southeast Illinois, including an EF3 that spun up north of Peoria in the Washburn area and moved across and caused some damage in Dwight and Streator. Todd Gleason: And again, Trent Ford, the state climatologist in Illinois, says the July and August numbers also brought more tornadoes to Illinois. Trent Ford: And then July was fairly active. Now again, normally we see tornadoes drop off between June and July and then especially for the rest of the fall. We had about 10 tornadoes in July, several in the Chicagoland area, including a couple in the city of Chicago once again. And then, yeah, August has been has been active as well, about 15 to 18, I think we mentioned that, tornadoes this month. Mostly in Northern Illinois, a couple—we had one in Champaign County, one in Peoria County, but mostly in Northern Illinois. Todd Gleason: Illinois, by the way, is not considered to be in Tornado Alley, but in each of the last four years, the state has recorded over 100 tornadoes. You’ve been listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Monday afternoon. A couple of items to keep in mind this week: If you live in Western Illinois or are really interested in beef cattle and their production, the Orr Beef Research Center Field Day is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. You can find more at our website at willag.org—that’s willag.org—in the calendar of events. And the farmdoc team will host the projected 2027 corn and soybean returns and update their 2026 budgets in a webinar that I’ll host on Thursday morning at 11:00 AM. Again, you can register through our calendar on the website, willag.org, or go to the farmdoc daily website and look under Webinars and Events. I’m Todd Gleason.