Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Super Tuesdays - The Iran War Is This Election Cycle's IRAQ For Republicans… But WORSE

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Super Tuesdays - The Iran War Is This Election Cycle's IRAQ For Republicans… But WORSE · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Is this the most important two to four week period
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: of this entire campaign?
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: It might just be.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: That's Chuck Todd. I'm Chris Lizzo. We're going to explain why.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Super Tuesdays. Like, comment, subscribe. Spread the word.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Vanquish your enemies. Reward your friends. Subscribe to Super Tuesdays.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: So, Chuck, you sent me this note about why this period.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Let's just call it between now and October.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: I'm in at two weeks.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: I think it's a two week period. So what we're
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: talking about.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Is the spending by we knew Republicans, whether it was
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's super PAC, the Republican super PAC, they have
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: much more money and not the candidates, but the outside organizations.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Let me pull this chart up, Chuck. You can talk
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: over it. This is from Axios. This just shows. Okay,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: so this is just spending. This is ad buys and
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: reservations September 1 to September 30. So as you can see,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: the red dot in all of these is what Republicans
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: are spending. In every case but South Carolina, where there's
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: very little money being spent, you see Republicans, $ 64 million
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: in Texas, $ 45 million in Ohio, $ 25 million in Michigan,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: $ 22 million in North Carolina. That kind of surprises me.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: And then you go over here. And you see the
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Democratic numbers, not nothing, right? But less in every case. Explain, Chuck,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: why you think this two weeks matters. I'll leave this
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: chart up for another minute so people can check it out.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Well, look, we've been waiting. There was going to be
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: a moment and there was going to be a period
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: of time where Republicans were going to drown the Democrats
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: on spending. And the surprising thing was the decision not
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: to compete in the summer, right? They sort of punted that.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: And it's funny, over the years, You know, there's been
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: different theories of the case. Do you punt the summer?
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: Do you not punt the summer? You know, can you
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: lose it in the summer? Can you win it? All
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: those questions, just like we had with August. And, you know,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: there's always been a different. The Trump world absolutely believes
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: that we have a short attention span and the Trump
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: world has always operated on. Late money. Now, because most
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: states begin their voting process in early to mid-October, we
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: are at the beginning of what I would call the
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: late money period. It used to not be this way,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: but this is the beginning of the late money period.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: So here we are. They've dropped their sort of the
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: 800-pound gorilla has weighed in.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we knew it was going to come. It was
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: a question of when.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: That's right. And if you watch, once again, the best–
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: the best place, the best way to consume all of this.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: This weekend, you actually only needed to watch one game,
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: the Ohio State-Texas game, because you got both Texas spending
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: and Ohio spending. But look, I was into Iowa-Iowa State.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: That had its share of... And it was... I would
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: say 90% Republican money I saw. Last weekend, we had
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: gotten to about a 50-50 equilibrium. That was not the
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: case this past weekend. This was the weekend where you saw...
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: the super PAC advantage in these. And look, we know
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: the reason why college football, there's a couple of specific reasons.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: The reason why college football has become a magnet for
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: this is that it's actually cheaper to advertise nationally. If
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: you're trying to target Ohio voters, it's cheaper to advertise
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: nationally on a game than it is to try to
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: go market by market because each affiliate has jacked up
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: the market rates.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you want to advertise during the evening news and
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: local Ohio TV is expensive.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: It's weirdly– that inventory is suddenly– it is– and in
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: some ways, it's a better buy. And you know you're
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: getting swing voters. You know you're getting voters that are
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: kind of– that are going to vote but maybe are
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: passively paying attention. And they're frankly not watching TV at
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: any other time. It's like the only time there's a
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: group of voters that will watch anything remotely– That's sort
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: of in a traditional ad-supported frame.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: And they're forced to watch the commercials because it's a
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: live event. That's the only time that anybody would ever
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: do it. And the only live events people watch anymore
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: really are sports and specifically football.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, to your point. And most of the tone,
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, it really was about calling into question the.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Character of the Democrat or the ideology of the party
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: or the are you sure you want to trust these people?
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: It was an interesting and it got me thinking, you know,
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: it's funny is that it reminded me a lot of
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: how Democrats have been advertising against Trump over the years.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: Are you sure you want to go down this road?
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: We know you're upset, but really, you're going to do this.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: How did that work out?
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: He's sitting in the White House currently.
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: That's how it worked out. And this is why I
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: don't think the socialist tag is a negative overall. Abdul
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: El-Sayed has got his own problems. I'm going to put
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: that in a separate bucket. That's a Michigan problem.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Texas and Michigan, we should kind of
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: put in their own bins because of it. I don't know,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: but I could see an argument for it.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: But the larger point is, This like fear that socialists
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: fear the rise of the socialists. I just think it's
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: not going to work because in the same way, fear
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: the rise of the nationalists and the fascists.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: Like if you're offering.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Democracy at stake, the whole. Yeah.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: If your pitch is status quo, but they're going to
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: they're going to wreak havoc. Well, you know what the
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: country wants? They want to change from this status quo.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: So if wreak havoc means no more of this crappy economy-
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: I totally agree. Be careful. They're going to pick wreaking havoc.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: But my point was, while there was some specific ways
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: that they went after Turek, and there were specific ways
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: they would- It was all the same larger theme. Hey,
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: these guys are full of shit. You can't really believe
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: what they're saying.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: Don't trust them. Don't turn back. All of that. It's
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: the best they got.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: And we're going to find out in two weeks if
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: there's a constituency that's listening for this.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: And I think that's what Chuck means by that is,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: are are we going?
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Is there any persuadable voter left?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: What you have right now, and I looked at it
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: before we came on, what you have right now is
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: that if you if you believe in polling averages or
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: you have a poll that you really like in the
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: vast majority of these states, Texas, Ohio, Maine, Alaska. Iowa
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: is very close. But if you look at the polling
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: averages in those states, the Democratic candidate is ahead of
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: the Republican candidate. Now, it's not with the exception of
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. It's not a significant margin, but it is.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: I question the Iowa. I haven't seen a good poll
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: in Iowa that's had Turek ahead. The polling averages have
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: him ahead. I think that's misleading because I think.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: Right. But the point is. You want me to show
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: you a Democratic ahead in any race? You call up
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: change research. They will always produce you a poll.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I believe they're doing all the stuff in Nebraska, which
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: is showing Dan Osborne up like five points, which I
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: didn't even mention.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Have you noticed how this works? And it's like most
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: of these campaigns have a pollster that they do for
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: their work. And then they– Throw money at change to
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: produce the fundraising polls, which is essentially– Or to move the.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Markets, which then moves buzz, which moves TV coverage.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: I mean it's a– It's such a cynical way to
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: conduct politics now, I guess. But the fact that you're
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: spending money just to game a crappy polling average– and
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. I think the work that they all do
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: to average these polls is– is misleading themselves. I mean,
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: the further we go, I'm becoming like more cranky about
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: this all the time. I think RealClearPolitics and Nate Silver
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: are misleading everybody with this crap.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Because your belief is that no matter how much they
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: wait based on how credible the poll is, it just
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: doesn't work.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: At that point, just then make your own projection. Stop,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: you know, and then just cherry pick the three decent
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: polls that we've seen so far in all of these
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: states and AARP over here. Fox and the Time Sienna.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Those are the three. There's really no other poll right
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: state level of polling that I trust beyond those three.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: It's interesting.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: That's for another. I want to go.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: We will do a big polling just for people between
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: now and the election. We will do a big 30
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: minute chunk of Super Tuesdays on polling because it's there's
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: only going to be more of it. It's only going
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: to be weaponized more and more between.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: Now and the election are as important to understanding campaigns.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: As the AP poll is to understanding college football. Meaning
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: it's meaningless. The AP poll has no... We used to
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: think it mattered. And it used to have bearing. But
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: not anymore. It used to matter. It was a part
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: of the process to decide who went to the college
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: football championship or the semifinal. It has no... uh, say
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: so whatsoever. It is literally the opinion of a bunch
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: of writers. Great. That's right.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: And that's all, that's all these take it for what
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: it is, not what they want it to be necessarily.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: But we will, for people, we will do that. Cause
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I do think we'll do a polling soup to nuts one-on-one,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: what we think is good, what we think is bad.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: So stay tuned for that. But I just want to
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: make the Chuck's point here is by October 1st, if
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: you don't see movement In Ken Paxton's number. And James
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Tallarico's number is probably more important.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: I think it's him coming down. I think it's in
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: all of these cases. It's Sherrod Brown going down. It's
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Tallarico going down. It's Peltola going down. It's Troy Jackson.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: Because none of these are promoting the candidate. It is
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: about if this ad campaign is successful, the Democratic number
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: should go down. a couple of points and The undecided
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: numbers should rise a little bit.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: They just have to peel people away from Democrats. You
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: don't necessarily have to get them to vote Republican yet
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: because most of these states, there are more Republicans than
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Democrats in these states we're talking about. So if you
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: can get them back in undecided, in theory, it's easier
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: to get them to Republican.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: So to me, it's sort of like, do you have
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: success at lowering, you know, and that'll be the measurement here.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: And we'll find out. I think $ 6 diesel- Yeah, I
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: totally agree. I think the Iran war is now– it's funny.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: Even three months ago, I didn't think the Iran war
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: was going to have the impact on the midterms that
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: the Iraq war did on the 06 midterms. I now
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: think the Iran war is going to have the same
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: impact on these midterms that the Iraq war and 06 had.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: The Iraq war was about exhaustion and too many Americans
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: getting killed.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: And for what reason? That's right.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: This one is all economic. catastrophe without any any upside
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: here what is the upside like what what what has
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: happened they keep having to tell people this is about
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: iran not getting a nuclear weapon well how's that working
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: i was going.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: To say people don't buy never have bought that rationale
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and i will note triple a this morning gas is
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: up 13 cents in the last like four days i
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: mean that's the.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: This is a saudi arabia diesel which is like saudi
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: arabia is about to be paralyzed from being able to
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: export anything They can't get it through the Strait of Hormuz.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: They can't get it through their pipelines. And they can't
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: get it through the other strait.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, the Houthis are now blocking. Yeah.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: Yes. I mean, this is.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: It's likely to get worse in terms of more expensive
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: before it gets better.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: And then you have a bond market that's on fire going,
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: don't invest in America right now. You can't trust a treasury.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: This is an economic calamity that we're in. The voters
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: haven't fully priced it in yet. And that's what I
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: would be fearing if I were a Republican. I mean,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: This can get worse and worse.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. I looked at the generic ballot this morning and
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: it's like, depending on where you look at it, it's
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: like seven or eight. But then. two polls in the
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: last four days have come out that have it plus 11.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: So it's like, it can get worse. Yeah. One was
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Quinnipiac and one was Economist YouGov.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: So, I mean, you know, I always say.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Like, price that in, price that in, but it can
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: get worse than it currently is. And I do think
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: sometimes we, we in our world are, not the collective
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: we not you and i although maybe you and i
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: tend to overthink elections a little bit it like really
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: could come down to when i go by the gas
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: station it says four dollars and fifteen cents or whatever
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: the hell it is do you know what i mean
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: like it could because it's like well trump we we
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: hired trump to bring down prices and look what he's
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: done like it's you know it could just be that
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: and what party is he in and what party's in control.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Look the the the most important thing that happened as
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: far as i was concerned about the 2024 election was
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: how rational it was meaning after a couple of election
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: cycles that didn't sort of behave rationally meaning it wasn't
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: sort of voters unhappy they vote this way the 2024
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: election went exactly as you would expect an election to
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: go when the incumbent party is in charge of an
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: unpopular economy yep pure and simple And if that's what
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: we saw in 24 and with Latino voters, like the
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: easiest way to see this is through the Latino voter electorate,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: because they are swing voters. They're pocketbook sensitive more than
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: any other constituency at the moment. And it's just the
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: simplest way to see the pocketbook sensitivity. And, you know,
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: this was they were never becoming MAGA by voting Republican.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: They were voting pocketbook. And now we've seen them. All
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: these Latinos are suddenly moving in another... It's not that
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: they're flip-flopping. They're very... These are pocketbook voters. Hard stop.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: And they don't love either party. They're just pocketbook voters.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: And if that's the case.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: This is why put it this way. This is why
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: Abbott's not out of the woods.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: Forget Paxton. If you want to understand the Texas electorate,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: ask yourself why the governor's race is as close as
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: it is. We can explain that all the Texas race
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: gets explained in the bad candidate. Sure.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Ken Paxton's a bad candidate, but the environment in Texas
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: is clearly bad.
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: By the way, do you know what court in Tallarico
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: would look like right now? be closer than kansas i
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: think it.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Would be yeah i i was gonna say i think
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: cornyn would be ahead but by like three.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: It would i don't even right it would be iowa
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: okay right and the only reason we would write it
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: off is because democrats aren't going to spend the kind
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: of money necessary to do what it takes to win
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: texas right that would no way they would have done
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: that against cornyn so it is but the point is
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: is that the political environment in texas is what has
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: gone south on the party. And Paxton cannot survive if
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: the environment is anti-Republican and there's an extra anti-Paxton constituent.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I want to stay on Texas. Before I do that,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: do you buy that same logic in Florida, then, that
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: we're missing the Florida governor's race and maybe a Florida
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Senate race?
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: And I'll tell you why I don't. Go look at
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: the polling question about the direction of the state versus
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: the direction of the country.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know people, people are optimistic relative to the
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: direction of the country in Florida.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: About the state. Yeah.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: That doesn't mean I think, you know, look, I think
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: what we learned in 22 is that, you know, you know, Florida,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: you know, the country was moving in one direction and
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: Florida went, you know, dramatically. Yep.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: But.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: I think we all, the question was how outliery was 2022, right?
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: Was it just a COVID sort of, Hey, look, we
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: got to reward this guy for, for not shutting the
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: place down when everybody else did. And, you know, Florida
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: benefited a lot and, and they played, they played it.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: They played that up really well. I think the, I just,
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: I struggle, I struggle with it. I don't see it.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: And again, the Florida economy has been, it's expensive. The car, like,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: The worst inflation in the country is in my hometown, Miami,
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: or it has been for a long time. But there
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: isn't a perception that it's a bad economy, right? Florida is,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: quote unquote, growing. Florida's got problems. There's all sorts of issues.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: So that's why I'm– and I'll give you one other thing.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: DeSantis is just a little bit smarter about AI politics
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: than the rest of his party.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: He's been ahead of the party.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: He was early in pushing back on Trump on the
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: moratoriums in the state. And he's been early on getting
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: rid of flock cameras. I think these little teeny movements
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: like that are why the party– the Republican Party's brand
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: is in better shape in Florida than pretty much any
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: state in the union.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: I actually think, and this is, we're not going to
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: go down this rabbit hole at least today, but I
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: do think the like, Ron DeSantis from a policy perspective
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: has actually been right a lot. I mean, it's like
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: a very interesting because he's just a terrible salesman. He's
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: just a terrible salesman. Nationally, he's painted as this like
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: giant boob. You know what I mean? Like, oh, he's
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: putting fingers around Santas. He's close.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: He's weird laughing. Well, by the way, that's because the
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: Trump people have turned him into a giant boob. Like
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: they hate it. There are people.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Chris Lasavita hates Ron DeSantis.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: They hate him so much. Right. That it's just personal.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: It has literally Ron DeSantis could cure cancer and they
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: would just totally forget.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah. It is, but that is an interesting thread to pull. Okay, Texas.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: A couple weeks ago, we talked about this game of
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: chicken that national Republicans were having, where it was like, no,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: you run to Ken Paxton's financial rescue.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: No, no, you run there.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Now it looks like everyone is running there.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: Is that?
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Is this the inevitable result, Chuck? You know, John Thune
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: saying like, oh, well, we don't have it in our
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: budget right now. And then, of course, now they're in
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: for whatever, 60 million dollars. Like, was this always going
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: to happen? And did Ken Paxton just kind of know, like,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if I raise money because they'll run. Like,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: it's just it's a remarkable thing where they try to
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: pretend like they're not going to finance it, but they
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: know they need it for both literal and symbolic reasons.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: So they're in.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: Well, what's Ken Paxton's own history in the Texas– like
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: he's been a weak candidate his entire time.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Bad fundraiser, bad general election candidate.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: And there's– and he always gets bailed out. So until
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: he fails, he's going to keep pursuing the same strategy, right?
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: That's exactly right. That's Pavlovian. It's like, well, eventually they'll
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: bring me some food. And it's just– there's just too many–
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: there's too much vested interest in the state and there's
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: other things. But I think a real question is– again,
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: I talk about these two weeks. If this doesn't at
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: all dent, if it doesn't move.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: And meanwhile, you're staring at a four point race in Idaho.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: You're staring at a three point race in Kansas. You're
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: staring at it.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: You're like that. You could fund all of those for
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: less than one week in Texas.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: Let's make sure we don't lose something stupid.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: Like, you know, you take Rish, um, this Todd Achilles,
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: you know, the single best, uh, Message he has is,
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: are you aware of how old Jim Risch is? And
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: it works, right? Now, I don't think Achilles is going
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: to win. I think we're going to wake up and go,
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: that was kind of close. Wait a minute, 53 what happened?
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? You're like, Jim Risch only
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: got 53%. And we'll be saying, this is how, you know,
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: the wave was big. Look at this. Right. Like, and
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: you know, in South Dakota was a coin flip. It
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: took us till midnight to call it for rounds. Like
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: what the heck happened?
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: And then we'll have the tariffs explanation.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: But you're right. I think in Texas and North Carolina,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: both of which are hugely expensive states, it's like how
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: long do.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: They stay in? If I were running, and you and
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: I both know Stephen Law really well, at the end
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: of the day, don't ignore something. You know, don't ignore
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: a 10% problem.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: Well, I was going to say, don't ignore a $ 5
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: million problem because you can solve it for $ 5 million.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: Especially if it's a cheap state.
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: You're not going to solve.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: Texas for $ 5 million.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Maybe Kansas. I want to get to Kansas. Well, we're
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: going to talk about it next.
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah. But South Dakota, Nebraska, Idaho, maybe even Montana. I,
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: you know, a little bit, you know, a couple, you know,
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: five million in each of them. And you just sort
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: of don't have to worry about them, which in this
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: environment is probably more effective use of your cash than
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: just keep dumping good money after bad for Ken Paxton.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, I look at the money they have for
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Whatley in North Carolina, and it's like, I can't imagine
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: they're going to spend $ 43 million.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I know he is.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: I know he is.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: That's the only reason why. Right. If he wasn't an
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: RNC chair, I don't think he'd have anything.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: I think they'd either never be in or already be
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: talking about being out.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: But I think he's getting September money. Yeah, it's like,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: does that continue?
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: And for people who don't understand this, Chuck and I
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: could say, we're going to reserve $ 40 million in ad
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: time in a fill-in-the-blank race. That does not mean that
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: we need to pay $ 40 million to the stations today.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: You can cancel reservations and take that money and move
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: it to other states, which you will see a ton of.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: So when you see these big numbers, that does not
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: mean that money has been allocated, like given to the
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: TV stations. It means that there is an intent for that,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: but that can be rolled back and often is.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: I want to just do a public service apology to
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: our friends in the state of Maine.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: Because I was playing around with ad impact today. Sure. Okay.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Great site.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: Messing around. Love what they do. And I was just
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: looking at it by market, the market saturation. What's the
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: number one market? Now, Portland is not the number one market, okay?
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: But when you look at it comparatively to the size
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: of states, the amount of advertising money being poured into
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: Portland is like, Because Detroit's the biggest market going. Okay,
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: that's the number one market where everybody's, because every super
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: PAC's playing in Detroit right now. Every, you know, Cleveland
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: will be up there too. Governor's race, huge Senate race.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: You know, the irony is that with all the money
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: in Texas, Dallas is like barely in the top 20.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Is Houston higher than Dallas?
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: No, it's because it's so expensive to do the entire state.
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: And I think people don't fully appreciate that. When you
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: see the, but when you see that Portland, is number
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: three overall. You realize that I don't know if there's any...
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: I think it's literally ads about the Maine Senate race
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: and maybe an ad or two from Flo from Progressive,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: who some people may confuse with Susan Collins. And that's
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: about it. There's no other time to be bought. I
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: feel terrible for people in Maine because I think it
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: is literally the entire ad break. My guess is it is...
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: Pro or con, Susan? Stacked.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: This will get us to Kansas. So I was in
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: Kansas City, Kansas. I was giving a speech in Overland Park.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: And I said at the start of it, this is
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: the end of last week, I said, look, if you've
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: got some spare money, consider buying or investing in a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: local TV station because I think you're going to get
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: a fair amount of money spent potentially here in a
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: way you have not seen in this race between Roger
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: Marshall and Adam Hamilton.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: Now, we have talked about this before, Chuck and I,
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: about Kansas.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Chuck was earlier on the Kansas bandwagon than me because
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: he was even before Adam Hamilton. Chuck, I want to play...
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about this race more, but I do want
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: to play. This is from, they debated for the first
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: time this weekend. It was at the Kansas State Fair.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: I just want to play a teeny bit of it.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Let me make this bigger so people can see it.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: This is Roger Marshall, okay? This is from the debate.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: Those are common, common business practices.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: We would go a year before we would ever.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: Send somebody over. Shame on you! Shame on you! Shame
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: on you! Shame on you! Ladies and gentlemen. OK, now, look,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: I am sure that the people chanting shame on you
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: are Adam Hamilton people. I don't think it's an organic shame. And,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: you know, what they're talking about specifically there is this
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: New York Times piece. Roger Marshall, before he came to
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: the Senate, before he was in the House, was an
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: OBGYN who the New York Times reported pursued a very
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: aggressive payment strategy on people who many of whom had
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: had emergency procedures. Some owed him one hundred dollars, some
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: owed him four thousand dollars. 700 of them were were indicted.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Eighty one of them were arrested and convicted. That's what
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: the shame on you chance about. But I do think
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: this kind of has the feel of guy who thought
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: he was going to get reelected for the next hundred
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: years and may not be able to adjust. Like, I
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: feel like it comes around sometimes. So we saw that
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: Luger look to him.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: We saw this. It's funny. You bring up Luger. Another
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: one is George Allen. Totally. When he sort of lost
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: it with the Makaka. And then couldn't understand why. He
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: became super defensive about it. And he's never, arguably, really
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: never gotten over it.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: It's really- Oh, and that was 06? It was 20
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: years ago.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: And it torpedoed, you know- I don't think that race
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: should have ended his political career, but he let it
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: end his political career. Yes, he did. But he looked
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: like a deer in headlights.
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: Correct.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: He never grasped that it was– Whether or not he
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: thought he should be in a real race, he never
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: grasped that he was in a real race.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: It was the first time– You know, it's funny. George
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: Allen had had a pretty charmed political career.
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: He won this congressional special out of nowhere.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: Yep.
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: Then the seat gets eliminated. Then he's like basically– Nobody
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: thinks he's going to become the next governor of Virginia.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: He kind of wins the nomination without a lot of,
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: you know, was it like and then and then he
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: basically gets lucky because the Democratic candidate was terrible. A
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: woman named Mary Sue Terry. Mary Sue Terry.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, she kind of melted down. And suddenly he– and he's–
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: and then he gets to run against Chuck Robb in
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: 2000 after Chuck Robb. I was going to say, it dovetailed.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: He ends his– Yeah. It's everything dovetailed perfectly. Everything went
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: so well for him. His one term as governor is.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: Ending, right, as Chuck Robb is still running again and
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: clearly vulnerable. Right.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: And he always got to run with the wind at
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: his back. And then 06, he makes a mistake. And
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: then suddenly the wind's not as it back. And, you know,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: you find out a lot about a candidate. You know,
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: the good candidates figure out how to win when the
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: wind is coming against them.
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: And we sometimes we overrate people who just simply, you know,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: win in good cycles, you know. And like I used
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: to say that that Sherrod Brown was one of the
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: luckiest guys. His three, you know, he runs at 06,
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: the Democratic year. He gets 12, which is also Obama momentum,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: and 18, an anti-Trump year. He finally hits a wall
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: and loses in 24, the first time he ran for
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: Senate where he had to run against the wind. And
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: what does he do? He gets to run with the
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: wind again in 26. And so he gets to run.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: He gets an appointed senator. I mean, he's had a
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: very charmed.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. And Roger Marshall is somebody, everything sort
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: of fell into place quite easily for him. He gets
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: his couple of house seats. But I was talking with–
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: it was John Bresnahan the other weekend. Great political reporter.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: We were doing some CNN together. We were talking about–
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: did you see Marshall get booed? And I said, you know, Marshall–
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: I said, I think this– I think there's a candidate
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: problem here. Like sometimes he's just– you have some candidates
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: who are just not good at this. And Bres was saying–
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: he goes– There were a whole bunch of us that
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: were shocked he wanted to even go to the Senate.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: He goes, he just struck me as a guy that
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: didn't love the job in the first place. In the house, right.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really like interacting with people. And if you
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: don't like people, don't run for office.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: Certainly not in a retail politics state like Kansas.
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: And, you know, he's got a little bit of that Dr.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: God complex to him.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: How dare you question me? How do you question me?
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: I bring people. I save lives. I create lives.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: Right. Like a little bit of, you know, I always
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: go back to Alec Baldwin. I am God. I am God.
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: You know, and it's a little bit of a stereotype,
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: but you do get doctors as politicians who Boy, I
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: can't tell you how often because they're rarely questioned. Doctors
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: never get questioned. And they really struggle in a political
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: setting because it's one of the few times that it's
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: open season. Hey, buddy. No, you don't. Your answer isn't
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: necessarily the correct answer. It's enough. It's a subjective answer.
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: It is not an objective fact.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: And somebody like popping off in like a in like
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: a receiving line being like any. Hey, doctor.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: And then they get pissed off and it gets recorded.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: And right.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: He just you know, some candidates just suddenly or just
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: can't handle it. And I'm wondering if Marshall's one of
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: those guys. So he ran in 20. He's got a,
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: he's Thomas Hearns.
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Tommy Hitman Hearns, you know, was known as the guy
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: with the glass jaw. It's like he took his first
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: punch in the face, which was this piece in the times.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: And he's struggling to handle it. And it's like, oh,
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: you can't take a punch.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: It's interesting. I mean, I remember the 2020 race, although
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: everything was kind of in a hate. Maybe every race
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: should just have an asterisk in 2020 because of COVID.
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: Like truly. Like the LeBron title with the Lakers. Right.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Like it's just.
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: It all gets an asterisk. He runs against a Barbara.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not. I think it was.
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: She was an LG. No, she was the LG. She
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: was like a real. She was a Republican lieutenant governor
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: who had switched parties. But she worked with the Democrats, right? Yes.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: She had been like touted. And he wins, I mean,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: not overwhelmingly, but he wins 53-42. I mean, I do
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: remember there were some Democrats talking about that race.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: She wasn't a very good candidate, if I remember. And
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: Adam Hamilton is- It was talked up early and he's
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: a different, yeah. And he's a different candidate and it's
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: a better environment. I mean, it just, I think it's
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: a different environment because it's not COVID. A pastor and
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: a doctor in theory are supposed to have the same
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: relationship with the public. They're comforters, they're empathy. But a pastor-
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: never behaves as if they're always right, a good one.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: A doctor actually has to behave like they're always right,
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: or maybe patients don't trust them. So what is a good,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: you want a very decisive medical professional.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: You don't want your doctor being like, I don't know,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: I'm not great at this.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: But his, he just, like I said, bedside manner, I
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: think is an issue with him.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Well, and we talk about constituent service and the underratedness,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: I think, that people at the national level give to
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: constituent service. One of the reasons I think we both
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: believe Darlene Graham ultimately wins is because Lindsay did such
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: a good job. So I'm in Kansas City, and look,
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: I'm talking to people at an event I'm speaking at,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: but you know what came up time and time again? Well,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: we see Jerry Moran everywhere.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: Moran everywhere.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Which is really interesting.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: Jerry Moran is the one that spoke up for the Bombardier. Bombardier.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: I just want to say Bombardier. Bombardier. I'm an American. Bombardier. Bombardier.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Right, yes.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: You French Canadians, you.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: But it is.
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: He came out and defended that. He came out and
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: pushed back against the tariffs on ground beef.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: The beef, yes. For the cattle industry.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: Yes, yes, yes, yes.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: Marshall has been afraid to ever buck MAGA. Jerry Moran
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: has been afraid to buck Kansas. It's just the two differences.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: And Jerry Moran is probably a senator for life. He's
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: more of the Bob Dole style of being.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: You know, worrying about the state and then your politics
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: will sort itself out. Marshall strikes me as a guy
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: worried about his national political standing. And he's not thinking
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: Kansas first. And I think that's going to that. That's
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: why he's vulnerable. He could still win. Of course, it's Kansas.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: It is not easy. This is 1932, the last time
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: I think of Democrats. There's a reason that that's exactly right. No,
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: it's 32. It's crazy.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, George McCaul was the last guy to win.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: None of us remember George McCaul.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: He was the last Democratic senator. Yeah, because I remember it.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I looked it up the other day. But it was
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: remarkable the extent to which people would say, When we
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: need something, we go to Jerry. Don't underestimate that. It's anecdotal, yes,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: but it speaks to one is a transactional, does things
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: for people, and one is more of an ideologue. And
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: I just wonder, it may mismatch the moment.
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: A simpler way to look at it is this. In
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: blue waves, upsets, you have to have an upset like Kansas.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: It's not a blue wave if you don't get an
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: upset like Kansas or Nebraska or something like that. We
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: always talk about it.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Dan Rosinkowski's seat in 1994 went to Mike Flanagan. Now,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: it was there for one term. A Republican represented that district,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: but it happened. So I think we're both– Kansas– okay,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: let me just ask you one forced pair question. Who
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: wins first, Dan Osborne in Nebraska or Adam Hamilton in Kansas?
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: Kansas.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: As of today, I think Hamilton.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: Me, too. I think Ricketts Ricketts being a former governor.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: I just think that that's a he's got a he's
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: got a much better organization than Marshall has. He's been
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: on the ballot multiple times.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: And oh, by the way, he'll write another check for himself.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: He's a billionaire. The Ricketts family. They own the Cubs.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: TD America. It's TD Ameritrade.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: If you're keeping score at home.
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: His dad is Joe Ricketts, who is a massive funder
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: of a lot of conservative things.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: And it's Todd Ricketts who sort of runs the Cubs. Right.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: And oh, by the way, that's another little weird feather.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's a feather in the Pete Ricketts camp is
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: if the Cubs go have a good playoff run.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: You never know. OK, one more force pair. Who wins first,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Adam Hamilton or Josh Turek?
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: See, this is where I probably diverge from most people.
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: I'm Kansas. I think Kansas happens for Iowa. And explain
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: your reasoning. You know, I think Ashley Hinson's a better
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: candidate than Roger Marshall. Ashley Hinson comes from a part
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: of the state.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's from eastern Iowa, right?
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: Eastern Iowa that is normally crucial for Democrats. She doesn't
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: have a fireable offense. OK, there's no obvious reason. You know,
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: I think when you pull an upset in a red
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: state like this in a year like this, you need
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: a reason to fire said person. And if Joni Ernst
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: were sitting there as the incumbent Republican senator, I would
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: probably say it's a coin flip, Turek or, you know,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: or Hamilton. But because Hinson is, you know, she doesn't
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: have the baggage of being an incumbent. She is. A
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: well-liked member of Congress.
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: Absolutely.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: She's a former TV newscaster. People know her in the state.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: And here's another thing, and you and I have seen
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: this a lot. The swing district House members that succeed
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: and make the leap to– Statewide. Very good statewide. They
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: already know how to talk to swing voters. They already
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: speak to a swing voter because they had no choice
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: in the matter.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: So I just think you throw all those together. Turek–
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: I feel like he's missing a second, the second, you know.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: Beat or second act. Yeah.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: He has a great first impression.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Amazing story. Right.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Amazing story. All of those things.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: But then what?
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: What's the next beat?
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: Why him? Right.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: And I, so, you know, when you're sitting there, it's like,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: I also just trust Henson to, to understand this environment
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: better than I trust Marshall to understand this environment.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: She's certainly been, had to understand it more recently, right?
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: And in a place that's more competitive. Last one, just
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: because I want to see how far we can go.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Does Adam Hamilton win before Mary Peltola wins?
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: No, I don't think so.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: I don't either.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: I don't think so.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: I think I might disagree with you on Iowa, but
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: I totally see. The other thing too is don't underestimate momentum.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: Like don't underestimate, like, everyone is not talking about the
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: Kansas race.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: By the way, we've been here at Kansas before and
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: it's had this momentum and then it sort of fizzles
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: in the last couple of weeks. So it's not the
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: first time we've been here.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: They're going to have to spend money to our other point.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: You're going to have to go in there if you
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: want it to fizzle. You got to go in there
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: and move, try to move the numbers.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: You know, I'll give you another example of a state
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: that fizzled for a long time and then it didn't.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: It was called the state of Arizona. And I can't
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: tell you how many cycles. Oh, six. And then you
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: come totally, you know, Democrats are very competitive here and,
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: you know, under the right circumstances, this could be this,
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: this could be that. And then it happened. Look, we
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: saw the same thing in Virginia. North Carolina. We saw it.
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, these are all those things.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: It never happens until it does. I was going to say, oh,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: we saw it coming. Past is prologue right up until
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: it isn't anymore. I mean, that's the reality. Like, that's
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: why we like politics, because these aren't static states.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: And I look at Kansas and Texas and you're like,
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: At the end of the day, over the last decade,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: they've been– we can disagree on the speed of the movement.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: But the movement has been in the same direction. Kansas
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: has gotten less red. Texas has gotten less red. It
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: doesn't mean they're blue states.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: Well, in the same way that Minnesota has gotten less blue.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: I mean it's the.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: Same– Iowa has been going more red.
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: Right? And Rob Sand– you know what? Another reason I'm–
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: it was an answer that Rob Sand gave about– replacing Grassley.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: I saw that.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: That told me, and I trust Rob's take on this electorate.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: When he was asked if there's a vacancy for Grassley,
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: how will you handle that? And he said- As governor, right.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: As governor, I would appoint an independent to that seat.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: And that was his first instinct. And I thought, he
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: believes getting too close to the party's a problem. How
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: does Turek run away from his party? I think it's
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: very hard to run away from his party.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Way easier also because people know him and he's running
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: for governor, which doesn't have the federal ties. And it's
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: harder to, I mean, look, I saw ads this weekend,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: you know, Turek, AOC, and Zora Mamdani, right? I mean,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: it's harder. You can like try to put Rob Sand
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: in there, but it's just a harder, it's a harder sell.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: Nobody's going to buy it. Nobody's going to buy it.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: I want to switch topics and I want to pull
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: this up because one thing I don't want us to
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: forget is, look, for the first time ever, Republicans did.
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: Democrats have done it before. Republicans at a midterm convention. Now,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, as he wanted to, was the main story.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: But J.D. Vance, the vice president. of the United States,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: did speak. He was the keynote speaker on Thursday night.
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: I just want to pull up... Now, again, Chuck and
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: I use these markets. Polymarket does some sponsoring to me.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: They do not sponsor this podcast. But I want to
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: just pull up.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: These are the odds, Chuck. So... as of right now
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: so you've seen look if you.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: Go back to june you know rubio is basically even and.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: Now you've seen when he when he took over venezuela
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: that was venezuela president of venezuela and.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Then you get here right and now we're out here
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: and you know vance is in the 50s and rubio's
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: in the high teens.
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: And everybody else is just kind of like kicking around lower.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: I always say mileage may vary on how much you
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: think these prediction markets are actually predictive. But I was
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: interested in your Vance take. I watched the speech. I
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: thought he would be pretty good. I thought he was
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Now, it kind of disappeared. It's not like
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: where everybody's like, hey, what about that Vance speech? Because
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Trump just eats all the scenery of everything always. But
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: I thought he was pretty good and has kind of
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: from what was a very shaky going into the summer.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: He feels to me much more like the obvious front
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: runner now. But I disagree if you disagree. Look, the
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: convention solidified two things in my head. Republicans know they
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: have an affordability problem or Donald Trump wouldn't be promising
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: people free money. Yeah.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: And I don't think they realized literally, I don't think
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: they realized how, what weirdly, how reinforcing of the Democrats
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: message that decision was.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: Like by saying, look, well, I'll just throw money at you. Oh,
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: so now you.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: How bad must it be?
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: You do admit that your policies have screwed your people
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: and you have to throw money at them to get
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: them to show up and vote because your policies aren't
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: working for them. It was it was in his own
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: weird way, an acknowledgement that he's been a failed leader
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: of this economy, that his economy isn't working for his people,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: or he wouldn't be offering free money like this.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's literally, let me buy off your vote.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not even adding any analysis to it.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: That's what it is.
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: You don't have to. I mean, it's acknowledging people are hurting.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: If I offer money, it's the only thing they'll listen to.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: You're like, oh, so you're acknowledging your economy has really
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: punished these people. And the second takeaway is that it's really,
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: really hard to prevent a sitting vice president from winning
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: their own party's nomination because of all of these built-in
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: advantages you have that we don't even see, right? Who's
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: the finance director of the RNC? Who's the one talking
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: to all these donors? Who gets sort of first dibs?
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: And you know who understood this? The Secretary of State,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: who was nowhere to be seen at that event. I
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: was going to say, it was like an old milk carton.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Have you seen Marco Rubio?
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: Oh, he was in Latin America, you know, being Secretary
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: of State.
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: And look, he understands politics better than J.D. Vance does.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: And he understands that, look, to beat a sitting vice president,
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: you've got to convince the party leadership who's got a
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: vested interest in keeping their own jobs to.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: And their own connections. Yeah, right.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no way. It's like when the president's entire political
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: team is basically signed up to help with Vance, well,
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: then you have an entire infrastructure that is now incentivized
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: to keep the gravy train going. So look, I thought
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: he needed to do something to prove to the grassroots
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: that he wasn't a wet noodle. And I think he
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: did the best version. It was the best speech I've
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: seen Vance give. And he's- He's still a bit of
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: a yeller when he tries to like show. This is important. Yeah.
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: So showing emotion by yelling. He's still which tells me
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: I think he's not a natural speaker. It's never you know,
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: he's more he's a better off the cuff speaker in
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: a podcast room studio.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: Reminds me of like a very effective college debater, which
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: is not exactly the same thing as like someone who's
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: good at giving big speeches.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: So I don't know about you, but it's like I
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: feel like on Earth, too. a young J.D. They're young already. J.D.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Vance and Pete Buttigieg would be the co-chairs of how
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: are we going to integrate AI into America?
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: 100%.
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: And he would like, give me the two millennial leaders
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: of the party. You know, Vance at one side, Pete
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: on the other.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: That would be actually an interesting conversation if you weren't
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: allowed to like do any cheap shots or bullshit like that.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: They actually like, I'm not sure I agree with either
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: of them 100%, but they're both, they're both, whether you
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: like Vance or not, highly intelligent. He's a smart dude.
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: These are smart people.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Who thinks about this stuff in a way that Donald
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: Trump does not at all.
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: The issue that, frankly, I think both of them have
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: is you're not– is this real or are you calculating? Totally.
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: You're never 100 percent sure.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: Well, and I think they both have– and I heard
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: this about Buttigieg and I know you did too. You
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: don't necessarily want to vote for the guy who was
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: the kid in the front. the front row at your
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: high school being like, ah, I know, I know. Do
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Like it's, it's that you're
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: kind of like, yeah, he's smart, but like also.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: Kind of annoying.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Like, you know, it's like George W. Bush, the
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: world is run by C students. Like, it's like, I just,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: I thought he was good. And I just wanted to
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: take a minute that I do think for all the
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: attention we gave to this idea of like, he's not
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: even going to be the nominee. He clearly has the
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: inside track to be the nominee.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: It doesn't eliminate. He's still, I think, among the weaker
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: sitting vice presidents we've ever had. And among the least,
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: like I said, he's the least tested of a sitting
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: vice president we've ever had.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: He's run one race.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: It's only won one race and he didn't run it
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: very well.
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: And I just go back, when you were talking about
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: the inherent advantages, the ones we see and the ones
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: we don't, I remember, I know you do too, if
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: you go way back to like 99, there was a
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: sense when Bill Bradley gets into the race against Gore
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: that this is going to be a real race, right?
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: That Gore was favored.
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: But like Gore's kind of a stiff and Gore's, you know.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: There is a what if that would never, you know,
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: if Bill Bradley never has the health scare.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Does it go all the way to the convention? I just– that– maybe.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: But it just reminded me there are just a lot
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: of inherent advantages in being the VP.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: And John McCain essentially defeated Bill Bradley in the New
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: Hampshire primary among the independents. That's right.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: The independents voted in the Republican primary.
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: And they all overwhelmingly went to the Republican primary ballot
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: and that hurt Bradley.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: Um, you mentioned AI. I don't, I want to do
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: this one thing because it does feel like all of
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: a sudden, whether it's Daryl Amadeus thing or the guy from,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: from Anthropic, who's like in 10 years, there's a 10
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: per in five years, there's a 10% chance machine.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: You know, I'm going to, can I channel my inner?
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: I did this on my pod. Yeah. I want to
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: channel my inner Chuck Todd cast folks. I want to,
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: I want to channel my inner Norm MacDonald. If you're
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: worried about, if you're worried about, uh, building a product
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: that might end the world, I have an idea. Don't
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: build a product that might end the world.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: It is deceptively simple.
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: What are we doing? All of these people are like,
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: oh my God, we're building this product that could tear
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: down humanity. Just turn the lights off. Don't build a
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: product that will destroy humanity.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Take the light switch and turn it off. Press the
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: off button now while we still can.
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: I'm just a caveman. I'm nothing but a caveman lawyer.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: Give me unfrozen caveman lawyer here. I'm just a caveman.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: But it does take human beings to program this artificial
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: intelligence at the moment. Well, that's the point. Don't program
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: the thing to be um, evasive to be sneaky, to be,
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: you know, like I I'm just sort of, you know,
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: I look, there were some basic protocols I think done
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: 30 years ago. Look, if we're going to go into
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: this technology, make sure the robots don't attack humans. Right. Like,
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: you know, it will be a fail safe, but I,
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: I find this whole, I am so torn on how
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: all this, I don't, There's clearly no leadership in the
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: political side.
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: Well, I want to get to that.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: Zero leadership.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: Let's get to that in a minute. Make your other
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: point and then let's get to that because I think
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: that's important too.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: But my God, it feels like these companies that are
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: ahead in the AI race, there's a part of me
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: that thinks– and this is probably the libertarian in me
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: that thinks, oh, you're just trying to prevent– Totally. You
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: want to lock yourselves in. Close the door behind us.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: And make sure nobody else gets to build these things.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people feel that way. We
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: operated without any regulations, but we definitely need regulations now
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: that we're huge.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: Not only regulations, because we don't trust other people. I
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: don't trust any of the three of you, Elon Musk, Dario,
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: or Altman. I don't trust any of you. They've all
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: been solving for money.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Let's be honest. They've all been solving for money. I
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: just keep going back. I know you're so formed by
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: what you watch as kids, but I still go back
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: to war games and the like, you need to turn off.
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I can't do that.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: Like, it really worries me.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: Like, I think of that. It's like, let's unplug before
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: we get too late to unplug. I want to play–
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: this is Trump. This is what worries me, Chuck, is
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: the ineptitude of kind of the people who are supposed
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: to be in charge. This is Trump. I think he's
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: coming back from Ireland and he's asked about AI. This
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: is 18 seconds. Let's just listen to this.
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: Hold on.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: Let me make sure we can hear it. OK. I've
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: said it from the beginning. Whoever wins AI and we're leading.
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: by a lot. Whoever wins, AI wins. Have you ever
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: used it yourself?
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: How do you use AI?
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: I would say for the most part, you can use
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: AI for a lot of things. That reminds me a
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: whole lot of when the teacher asked me if I
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: did the reading. I was like, I did.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: I read the book.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: It was great.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: It's about war and also peace.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: He doesn't use AI. My biggest concern here, Chuck, is
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: the people who are supposed to be, and it's not
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: just Trump, The people are supposed to, in theory, put
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: some sort of regulation on this. Don't know enough about
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: it to even come close to writing legislation that would
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: effectively do what these guys who run these companies are,
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: in theory, asking.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, the thing is, is we have the architecture
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: to build something. For me, it's a combination of the
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: Nuclear Regulatory Commission meets the U.S. Department of Agriculture and
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: You know, at the USDA, we take food inspectors and
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: embed them in the process. So that way throughout all
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: of the, you know, there's automatically staffers already at the
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: processing plants and there's staffers in the big ranches. And,
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: you know, they're embedded in the process And they're almost
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: like employees, but they work for the government. They're there
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: to double check everything, which the little memo this weekend
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: that went out and all the AI billionaires signed off
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: on had one of these as the idea. And then
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, sort of a body of a
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: more set of experts, frankly, that I think we're missing.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, the big fear I think that I have
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: in this is that Yes, I want more government regulation,
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: but I'm worried that the government doesn't know what the
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: hell it's doing and do they even know how to
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: regulate this.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: That's my bigger– right. The expertise doesn't sit in government.
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: Correct. It sits in these companies. I appreciate that there
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: is a handful of people that have made an attempt–
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: To get smarter about this, Don Beyer went to graduate school. Yes,
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: I thought that was really cool, Virginia's own Don Beyer.
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: And frankly, Congress has done a bunch of these policy seminars,
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: believe it or not, for sitting members of Congress. McCarthy
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: was big on it. Pelosi was big on it. This
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: was not– it's interesting. I have– in that aspect, a
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: lot of members got smarter about this topic than they
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: have a lot of other topics over the years. And
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: I think part of it was the industry was sponsoring it.
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: A little bit– so there was some financial incentives in
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: participating in these seminars and putting them on. But that
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: is my other concern is that we don't have the expertise.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: Those that we have are captured by the corporate entities.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: And are a little bit persuaded by all the cash.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: I mean I say this without– I don't want to
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: sound alarmist, but Washington is totally– awash in this in
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: in in two industry everywhere money it's crypto and and
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: ai money and it's everywhere.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: And that and i always say middle eastern money crypto
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: money ai money everywhere yeah everywhere.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: But i mean even like i think some of it's
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: even making the qatari's blush yeah.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I mean it is that well because the thing that
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: they have is money right i mean that they're that's
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: the but i just i'm i think we do have
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: a leadership issue there's no doubt And I do think
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: we have a knowledge gap issue, to your point. I mean,
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: like even if they're better informed than they were on
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: like social media, that doesn't mean they're well informed enough
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: to write like actual effective legislation.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: Earlier today in a moment of, well, what could we
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: do to bring a little more confidence to the public
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: that the government knows what it's doing? And that's when
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: I was like, well, on Earth 2, you know, who
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: are our smarter, younger politicians?
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Yes. Right. And it is like a Lincoln Douglas debates
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: of AI or a.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: You know, I'm looking for my Lee Hamilton and Tom
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: Kane for the 9-11 Commission.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: But give me a couple, you know, like Ben Sasse
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: and Michael Bennett, you know, or something like that.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: Serious, not super partisan, thoughtful.
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: Who are thinking about. more than just their party's ability
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: to win AI.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, get reelected, right.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: It's funny, the Trump mindset is what really concerns me,
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: you know, because here's what happened. Trump was a skeptic
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: of AI until somebody scared him about China getting AI.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: And so he's basically living in a Bond movie in
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: his head, right? James Bond villain is going to win AI. Well,
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: it's an.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: Arms race except AI, exactly.
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: Right, or it's- I mean, this is basically the, the
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: plot to the last mission impossible that it's some, this
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: AI entity, the entity, I think they call it or
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: something like that. And, you know, nobody can control it
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: and whoever gets their hands on it controls it all.
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: They control information, they control history. So that is how Trump,
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: what really is scary about this is that this is
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: how people have explained it to him. So he has
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: absorbed it as AI win, um, if we don't do it,
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: we lose. And that's the way he sees the world, right?
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: We got to be first in everything. So this is
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: what he's been told. And so it just tells you
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: that the leader of the government is pretty much the
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: worst possible person we could have to worry about AI safety.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah. His ability to understand the nuance of the issue
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: is close to zero. He has lived his entire life
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: as If I win, that's plus one for me and
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: minus one for the other guy. And that's just how
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: we see– that's the frame through which.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: You see it. Yeah, and it's not– that's not how
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: it works. Right. I mean, it's obvious what we need,
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: which is some humility, a little bit of bad cop
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: with big tech. Like, no, no, no, no, you're not
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: dictating this. You're going to sit the fuck down and
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: we're going to have a conversation about how you're going
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: to abide by- a regulatory structure. And we're going to
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: do this in such a way where we don't lose
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: to China. Like you could do all, you know, you
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: can make an effort to do both.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: We don't have the leadership to do that now. I just,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: I'm very skeptical. That sort of comes.
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: That's the scary part of it.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: I want to transition to sports. It's politics and sports.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: It was a big weekend for Republican senators being booed.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: If you didn't, so we already played you. We already
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: played you, Roger Marshall being booed. This is, you'll recognize Raphael,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: Ted Cruz here. He's on college game day, which by
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: way of context, he didn't wear shorts.
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: It's there. Did you see the picture of him wearing shorts?
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Don't.
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I was like, I don't.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: Want to see it ever again.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: And I want to tell his family, I want to
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: tell his family. So he's at UT. Please do your
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: dad slash husband a favor. Don't let them walk outside
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: in public in those shorts. I don't care how orange
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: your shirt is. That was a, that was not a look.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: So he's on. Now, this interview goes for a while
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: with Rhys Davis. It's like a 10-minute interview, but let's
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: just play the beginning of it. OK, so he's talking
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: about the Protect College Sports Act. Now, you can hear
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: the people behind him chanting, Ted, you suck. And he
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: was roundly booed. But we talked about this last week, Chuck.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: He is a face for this. He got support from
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: Pat McAfee, although I'm not sure Pat McAfee knows what
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: the hell's in it. Nick Saban is, I think, a
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: more intellectually engaged on this issue. Is Ted Cruz the
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: wrong face to get something like this done?
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: Chris, the entire PR campaign for this bill is a
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: shit show.
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that is a technical term and also accurate.
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: Who are they trying to talk to in this? For
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: the life of me, I'm trying to understand who they
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: think the swing constituency group is. Is this a TV
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: ad campaign designed for an audience of one? Well, I
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: don't think so in this case because Trump's already– he's
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: willing to sign whatever the hell Congress wants.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: A hundred percent. I don't think he cares that much.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really understand– right. He really doesn't understand the issue.
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: This bill is written to bring college football back to
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: when Nick Saban was in charge of it. That's which
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: is what certainly plenty of people think. Oh, well, the
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: system was fine then. Well, talk to the players. The
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: players didn't think the system was fine. My issue, the
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: issue with this. So, look, I think the bill is
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: flawed and will just get is so vulnerable in court.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: For the same reasons why the NCAA, every rule they've
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: tried to enforce has always gotten over. I don't know
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: if it passes, but if it does, it will immediately
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: be appealed. Yeah. Because you cannot place a salary cap
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: on a group of people that never were part of
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: the collective. We've never had a salary cap without labor
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: having some say.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: In this process. And they got zero.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: Say in this process. You cannot say you can only
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: make X amount of money if the people who are
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: making the money have no say.
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: But let's say I accept the premise that this bill
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: solves the problem. Why do you think Nick Saban and
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: Deion Sanders and Ted Cruz are the right people to
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: sell this? What are you trying to sell? Are you
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: trying to sell stability in college sports? Are you trying
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: to sell stability in the budgets of academic institutions? How
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: come you're not talking to if you think this is
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: going to harm women's sports? By the way, not only
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: is there no evidence that this has harmed women's sports,
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: it's actually more evidence that it's helped women's sports. But
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: set that aside. Let's say you are. Well, where are
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: the female voices in all of this if this is
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: the case? Where– And my guess is it's because maybe
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: a whole bunch of women's athletes have decided, no, the
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: first time that women's sports have ever gotten any revenues
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: in this NIL area. So this has actually been good
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: for women's sports. But regardless, it I don't understand who
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: the target audience is for this. They keep showing me
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: Nick Saban and college football fans are not your swing
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: constituency group. No, I'm convinced of this. And and and
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: to me, it shows you the flaw in the bill
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: itself because. The campaign would be much more effective if
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: you actually had players involved. And the fact that no
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: players will get involved, it tells you that the bill
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: is anti-player. The bill is anti-player. It is pro-institution. It
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: is pro-everything except the player. It is better for the
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: player than the old system. but it's only because the
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: players had to sue their way into getting a piece
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: of the table, right? The only reason we're here are
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: due to lawsuits that were won in federal court against
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: the NCAA and these various institutions. And now Congress is
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: going to pass a bill that has no chance whatsoever
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: of passing judicial review.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: I'm also just like Cruz specifically.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: And I certainly wouldn't put Ted Cruz out there. Especially
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: in Austin. What are you doing?
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: I know. Well, that's what I don't understand. I've always
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: thought he was like a.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: Put Maria Cantwell out there. Totally. She's the co-sponsor.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: By the way, the Washington State flag guys.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: Nobody knows. No offense to her. I'm not saying.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: No, but that crowd is not going to know who
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: she is. That's all. Not no one knows who she is.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: But the game day crowd in Austin doesn't know Maria Cantwell.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: Here's what I know.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: And they do know and dislike Ted Cruz.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: Here's the other part of this. I'm old enough to
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: remember when ESPN decided, hey, we got to get out
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: of politics. And they had done a good job the
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: last couple of years trying to sort of depoliticize. And instead,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: they go all in on this issue.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: That's very interesting.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: Because that was a 10-minute interview.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: Like in the middle of College Game Day, which is
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: like McAfee giving away money.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: So you know what this tells me? Disney's lobbyist told
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: ESPN you have to book Cruise on this. And that...
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: my friends, is why you should support independent media. And
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: that's how it works, folks.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: If you don't think it's how it works, you don't
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: understand it. I'm telling you, I understand how this works.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: The government lobbyists have a lot of sway.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: And if there is, and editorial leaders are forced to
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: put people on sometimes, because their bosses say, no, you
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: have to do this. This is coming from the executive suite.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: Do you think Reece Davis or the executive producer of
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: College Game Day was like, you know what we need
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: in the middle of this? A 10 minute interview with
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: Ted Cruz.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: No chance. Not a single person involved in the editorial
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: side of Game Day thought that was a good idea.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: No chance.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: I promise you it was the lobbyists who said we
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: can't afford to piss out. Cruz will be pissed if
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: we won't put him on Game Day. He thinks, I mean, look,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: you want to talk about a guy that clearly lives
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: in a bubble. he himself should have been self-aware.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: That's my point. How do you go out there? You know,
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: it's not going to go well. Do a pre-tape where
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: you're in like a studio and they.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: Throw to it. It was a live event like that.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: By the way, it just tells me, this is why like,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: he's not, I, I've always thought.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: He was pretty good with political judgment, but that is
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: a dumb political judgment.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: Anyone could have seen that coming. You know, I, uh,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: Ted Cruz and a sense of humor is a... He
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: really has one.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: He's funny. He's smart.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, Jimmy Kimmel. He's done schticks with Kimmel. I
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: got him to do a schtick with me for our
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: 65th anniversary. We did a fun little thing, me and
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: Debbie Dingle and him. Like, he is... It's a shame
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: that he's turned into the... Because he really wants to
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: be liked. And he just.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: Oh, he absolutely does.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: And he really is willing to put himself out there,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: like he did.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: He is willing to make himself look like an idiot
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: in a way most politicians are not. Or be the
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: butt of the joke.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: Sure. In a weird way, he's got a thick skin.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: But it's... But that was a misread, man. You don't
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: want to be booed the whole time. And I actually
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: think he hurt the cause. Well, his attachment to it
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: goes to your messenger's point. They don't have any good messengers.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: They don't. And they just don't.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: And that's a huge problem when you're trying to pass
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: something through Congress.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: And I don't think the message is this is, you know,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: a majority of the folks were, you know, look at
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: the majority of Americans that look at this bill. I
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: promise you, they're not college football fans. And so you're
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: actually missing. If you want to get this bill through,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: the way to make the case is to say, hey,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: do you want our academic institutions to teach academics again?
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: Or do you want them to be boarding schools for sports? Right.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: That's the message that you do to the non-sports fan.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: The sports fan- Frankly, they could care less if their
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: team wins. I don't think they care about the details
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: of this.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: I don't either. They just all they care about is
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: winning and losing. And I remember when people were like,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: I remember when Georgetown was on the hunt for a
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: coach and they were like, well, the administration says we
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: can't hire Patino.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: And I was like, because it's going to be a problem.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: I was like, you know what?
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: If Patino wins, no one will give a shit about
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: his background because the fans just want to win.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: Now, the average. I'll give you a great example. Lane Kiffin.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, perfect. He's prototypical. No one thinks he's a good guy.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: By the way, Brian Kelly. Nobody liked Brian Kelly. And
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: they put up with him until he was losing too
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: many games.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: That's it. He didn't get fired because he was a
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: bad guy. And Lane Kiffin won't get fired. He's a
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: bad guy.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: He'll be fired if they don't win.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: That's it.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's just that's how it works. I don't
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: want to go too long. I have one NFL question
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: I want to ask you. Are my fighting New York
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: Giants the story of the season already, Chuck? 1-0, Jackson
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: Dart throws for three touchdowns. We got Scadaboo doing backflips.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: Many people are talking about it bigly.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: So this is the typical like just because the attention
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: economy cares about the New York media market in Dallas.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: We're supposed to overlook the Arizona Cardinals and was probably
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: the most. Jacoby Brissett. That was the most shocking result
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: of the weekend. That was crazy because they were supposed
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: to win like three games. And the Chargers are supposed
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: to be a playoff team. The Chargers are supposed to be. Someday,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: Justin Herbert is going to be a quarterback on another team.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: I've decided at this point.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: Well, now they've changed out offensive coordinators too, right? And
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: now it's like the genius from Miami is now the
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator there.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: And the offense didn't look great. It's funny. It's sort
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: of like the question is what week one result will
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: be meaningless and what week one result will be foreshadowing? Totally.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: Like I remember a couple years ago, the Packers, it
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: was during the Aaron Rodgers run. They lost to New Orleans.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: And in fact, they had a play in Jacksonville for
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: some reason. I think it was a storm issue.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was going to say. And they had a
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: play in Jacksonville.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: And they lost like 31 to 3 or something like that.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: It was game one of the season. And everybody's like, oh,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: what's wrong with the Packers? I think they ended up
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: like 13 and three.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: It does happen. With the MVP. Right. You know, it, it,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: there is a, that's, you know, I look at the
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: Rams and I'm like, ask me again in three weeks.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: Right. I, you know, I think they made a decision about,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: the travel, and they just punted the game. They chose
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: to treat it like an exhibition game, which if you're Goodell,
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: you need to keep that in mind when you decide
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: these international games.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: Right, a game that's 14 hours ahead. But Miles Garrett
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: is hurt.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, you're right.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: It's signal versus noise, right? And it's very hard in
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: week one to know.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: It really is, right? And I'm sitting here, look, as
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: a Packer fan, I looked at that game and said,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: oh my God, it's the same crap I dealt with
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: the entire second half of last season. And this is
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: a team that, Many of us fans questioned the focus
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: that questioned the decision not to pursue good offensive linemen,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: but instead assume that Jordan Love could just and LaFleur
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: could manage around it. You know, and the thing is,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: is that you can manage around it if it's a
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: bad offensive line. But if you don't have one at all,
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: you can't manage around this. And so I don't think
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: that is a, oh, they just had a bad game
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: one and they'll write the shit.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: That's a rule, not an exception.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And so, you know, I'm I am I think
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: suddenly LaFleur first coached fired is like in play.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: Um, before we go, this is for people who don't
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: know Chuck picks games against a monkey on the Tony
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: Kornheiser show.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: Uh, I only care about one game and I got,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: how did it go this week? Well, I, first of all,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: I don't ever keep track of my record.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: Good job by you. Yeah.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: Well, how could you, it's way too labor intensive. No,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: I wait till I'm told on Wednesday morning. How'd I do?
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: Oh, I was.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: How do you feel? Or, you know, but I only care.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: I had, I had only really had one emphatic pick
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: and it was the Niners because I thought what the
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: Rams were doing was.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: I was going to backfire.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: I thought that was, I've done these trips for people
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: who don't know the Rams flew like 24 hours before
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: the game to Australia. There was no doubt in my mind.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: This was, and I was like, It was the game
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: I was the most adamant about, and it was the
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: game I put my money where my mouth was. Real money.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: Real credits.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: All I cared about was that one. Everything else, which one,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: is kind of a guess. But that was one.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: Just spank that monkey, Chuck. That's all I'm asking you.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: I think I hit the Bengals. That was a win.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: I know I did not hit the Cowboys. I mean,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: I was not. I'm a fader of Harbaugh. Not a
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: Jackson Dart believer. A Harbaugh fader. I will say, I
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: assume Jackson, if Jackson Dart makes it. He's going to
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: get hurt. He's going to get hurt.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: Him and Scadaboo both can get hurt. They're fun to
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: watch while it lasts.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: The Chuck Todd cast three times a week. Dynastic, including
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: a great interview with Paul Feinbaum, the king of the SEC.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: Hey, who's your top five right now in college football?
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: You know, I know what you're doing here. And I
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: don't think Texas should be number one for basically winning
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: by the skin of their teeth in a home game
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: against a largely unproven Ohio State team. But I know
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: they're number one. Whatever. Fine.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: They needed it more. I mean, I will say this.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: Look, Arch Manning played great in the fourth quarter.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: He played with shit in the first three quarters, but
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: he played great in the fourth quarter. Had Texas lost
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: that game, I don't think Arch and Sark recover this season.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: I think Arch was starting to have a little bit
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: of Trevor Lawrence first three years in the NFL vibe.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: So you're like, wait, this guy was good, right? This
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: guy was supposed to be like generationally good. And he
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: was great in the fourth quarter, which is when it matters.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: And they did win. I think Georgia would probably beat
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: them on a neutral field. But again, it's two games
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: for a lot of teams.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: I think there are four teams better than both Texas
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: and Ohio State. From what I saw.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: Is Miami in there?
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: It's Miami, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Indiana.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: I would take all four of those teams. I would
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: say A & M does not belong in there. They
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: won over Arizona State.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: I watched the game.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: Marcel Reed looked very shaky.
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: Very shaky. I watched that game, too.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: Very shaky. All of my in-laws were, many of whom
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: were there. It was like 110 there. Very uninspired.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: I think Arizona State just ran out of gas. I
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: think it was hot as.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: Hell there, too. And they don't have the depth that
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: A & M has.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: No, I mean, look, but you know, we were watching
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: the interest in that game in our household is the
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: number one coach that Mrs. Todd would like to see
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: replace him at Florida State is Kenny Dillingham.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: Kenny Dillingham.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: I liked him. Who was an assistant at Florida State
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: at one time. I thought he did a.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: Pretty good job. I mean, they're just overmatched. They're one
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: through like 15 is pretty good.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: It's just like A & M has.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: Four stars everywhere else that they don't.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: But there was... You're right. I was... Look, I was
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: impressed that A & M wore him down, which means
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: you guys will be... But there was something shaky about
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: that whole thing. Two pick sixes, Chuck.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: Two pick sixes to get to 45. I mean, it's
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: not amazing at home.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: So, I mean, look, I am glad that Miami is not.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: You don't want them to be number one right now.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: I don't want them to be number one.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: It's like being the front runner of the 2028 race.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: It's not as, you know, everybody shoots at you.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: Now, the other question is, is Oregon this year's Penn State?
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so. I mean, after the Boise State game,
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: I was willing to give them a pass. It's the
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: first game, blah, blah, blah. And I think Dan Lenning
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: is good, but they, you know that they beat, you
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: know that they beat Oklahoma State. It's a group of
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: six squad this year.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: Yes. It is literally the entire North Texas squad from
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: last year transferred to Oklahoma State. Now, they were a
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: very good group of six school. But it's still, you know,
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: they were sort of on the level of James Madison.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: It's not even close. And, you know, That was an
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: ass kicking. And you know, that wasn't close. The final
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: score was far closer than the actual thing. And you
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: know that last year. Now, I know the team's turnover
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: because of the transfer portal and everything. But last year
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: it was like Oregon won 66 to three.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: So it's what got Gundy fired. Yeah. Maybe that's motivation.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: Who the hell knows?
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: Anyway.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: All right. Chuck Todd cast dynastic and super Tuesdays is
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: every Tuesday. We drop like comment. We're on I heart apples, Spotify, YouTube.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: That's Chuck Todd. I'm Chris.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: Thanks, everybody. Take care. See you tomorrow.