Latest / Monero Talk / Gold, Bitcoin and Monero with @northstarcharts | EPI 351
Transcript
- Doug Alright, good morning, good morning. How's it go, man? Kevin Hey Doug, how are you doing? Good to be on today. Doug Good. Yeah. Thanks for coming on. I appreciate it. Kevin Yeah, no problem at all. No problem at all. Always happy to talk about cryptocurrencies and whatever. Yeah, all good. Doug Yeah, I know we've never met. I don't think we've ever really crossed paths before. I've seen you out there on the interwebs on X. I've been following you for a little bit. I think I jumped into a space or two where you were talking. I know you mostly follow, obviously, the broader market. You follow gold pretty closely. You're a chartist, right? You do the TA. Looks like you're pretty good at it. I'll be honest with you. On this show, we don't do much TA. We have a TA segment on our Saturday morning show that Bobby Atticus does. He does a great job with that. But by far, for the most part, we usually focus on fundamentals and just what's going on in Monero and talking to the devs. But I do think it's nice sometimes to talk about the broader picture, maybe get an idea where things might be headed price-wise. And so I figured I'd reach out to see if I could get you on, especially now. I think now is a good, fun time to talk about price in Monero as things are finally starting to perhaps start to break out. But who knows? Maybe that's just a temporary thing. So if you want to go ahead and maybe initially give an intro to yourself, I think probably a lot of the people that are tuned into Monero talk probably don't really know you too well. Yeah, no, sure. Kevin Well, my name is Kevin Wadsworth. I'm here in the UK in northeast England. I run a website with my business partner Patrick Karim. It's called NorthStarBadCharts.com. And basically the idea is that we provide unbiased analysis on the markets. So my own background is in the world of meteorology. I've spent 34 years as an atmospheric scientist really, as a meteorologist for principally the military for the Royal Air Force over here in the UK. And that involved taking a lot of geeky scientific information and turning it into a simple tool that the fast jet pilots could use to decide whether or not they could carry out their missions. So I started using these weather forecasting techniques to dumb it down a little bit, which is a lot of sort of complicated computer model data. And I started to wonder if the techniques for forecasting what's going to happen with the weather in a few days time is applicable to the markets. And so I started messing around, particularly after I bought some gold quite a long time ago, probably about 20 years ago. And I started charts, drawing charts and following the chart for gold. And it became fairly clear that the types of techniques that we use, the evidence gathering techniques in the world of meteorology, does cross over into forecasting what is going to happen with the markets and with gold, with cryptocurrencies and with anything else. It's a very sort of comparable technique for gathering all the available evidence in chart format. So everything from volume to Fibonacci extension levels and all these different sort of technical geeky techniques, a little bit like weather forecasting, you bring it all together and you can turn it into a nice visual which people can use and can sort of action. At the end of the day, it needs to be actionable. You need to give something that is going to swing the odds in your favor. You can never say with 100% certainty whether you're going to get a rain shower in four days time at 10 minutes past midday. And the same thing goes for forecasting what's going to happen with the price of Monero. But what you can do is you can make a statement about whether the odds are in your favor for the price going up, down or sideways. So yeah, that's my background. And that's why I'm doing what I'm doing. I stopped the weather forecasting game probably about three or four years ago now. And I do this full time trading and producing the charts for people on X, social media and the website. Speaker 2 Do you love coffee and Monero as much as we do? Consider making gratuitous.org your daily cup. Pay with Monero for premium fresh beans and if you like what you taste, send a digital cash tip directly to the farmers that made it possible. Proceeds help us grow this channel, gratuitous and Monero. Doug Very cool that you come from a background with the background unrelated to the finance field, more related to statistics and analysis. And now you're applying that to finance as opposed to the weather. So I mean, is it as simple as plopping in those data sets as opposed to the other ones? Or maybe you want to describe something about what are you doing when you say you're using those skills and applying it to finance? Kevin Well, there's a whole range of different ways that it's comparable to weather forecasting. One very simple way that people might understand is that we all know that the weather comes in seasons in the northern hemisphere and the southern hemisphere once you get away from the equator. The weather's defined by seasons, so spring, summer, autumn or fall, and winter. And that's comparable to the cycles that you get in stocks and shares and cryptocurrencies. Gold has an identifiable sort of 4- and 8-year, 16-year cycle and so on. And so does, of course, Bitcoin's well-known for its 4-year cycle. So you'll find that there's an economic cycle behind all of this, and it drives literally everything. And every once in a while, you get a rotation of capital. We call it capital rotation event, and it's when relative capital flows change between the stock market's risk-on assets and things like precious metals, energy, oil, commodities sort of risk-off assets. So you can identify these seasons in the charts, broadly speaking. So you can identify when you're moving away from one season, i.e. stock markets being in a huge bull run, to the next season, which is that bull run sort of petering out, probably going to hibernation mode for a decade, and favoring precious metals and commodities. So anyone that follows me will be well aware of what's going on at the moment in terms of capital rotation. So it's really, really important, particularly in cryptocurrencies at the moment, to be aware of what's going on in the background here. Doug So, yeah, you very much focus on the big picture, right? You're looking at it seasonally. You're looking at terms of like, you know, years, decades, not day to day. Kevin Yeah, that's kind of not quite true because you need to set that background theme in terms of where the big picture is, but then you can then translate that into traditional trades. So you can look at the daily and sub-daily charts for cryptocurrencies, whether it's a four-hour chart, the daily chart, or the weekly chart, and you can use that to inform your trading decisions as well. So, in other words, you know that when a pattern, a technical chart pattern is breaking to the upside, it's much more likely to be a genuine move and reach its measured move targets. You're much more likely to be successful if you know that you have the capital flows behind you and you're not struggling against them. In other words, it's a bull market move and not a bear market rally. So it's kind of setting the background scene that allows you to place regular trades. Doug I was always fascinated by this idea of TA, like I said, I don't really pay much deference to it just because I'm more interested in the fundamentals and I just see it as a risky endeavor without knowing enough about it to get involved in it. But I was always fascinated that it does seem like TA often when it's predicting that there might be some big change coming up, some breakout when it's going to go up or down, that it always just seemed to coincide with some event that does happen, that then does cause the capitulation of such event. It's interesting how those things work out. Kevin Well, it's fascinating to note that TAs often gets a bad rap because anybody out there can set themselves up as a technical analyst and say, OK, the chart tells me Monero is going to go up in the next couple of days and it doesn't, it goes down and vice versa. And it's like anything else in life, you can get a load of ingredients together and try to bake a cake. But if you're not a good cook, the cake is going to end up more like a rock. If you know what you're doing with those ingredients, then you can bake a nice cake. And it's the same with technical analysis, everyone have the same ingredients. But if you don't bring them together properly, and what I mean by that is if you haven't got experience and knowledge in the world of statistics, statistical analysis, mathematics and physics, then really you're kind of just pulling individual sort of techniques out of your butt, basically, and trying to use that to try and prove your own bias. The whole point of technical analysis is that if you're doing it well, it should eliminate all bias. You can apply the same techniques to Bitcoin as you can to gold and you get unbiased results. You know, you're using the same techniques. So there's no confirmation bias involved here. Maybe I can try and convert you by sharing a few charts. Doug Yeah, it's definitely very easy to read in your own biases. If you're looking at a chart and you're looking at Monero, you're a Monero guy, you want it to go up, it's very easy to interpret it one way versus another if you're not letting go of those biases. Kevin I'll share my screen and go through a few charts with you, and I might try and sort of convince you that there is some worth in technical analysis. One thing I'd ask you to remember is that the price chart, if you're looking at the price chart of something, that is the only place that you can look that shows you the true opinions of all the market participants. So whatever the price is at now is as a result of what all of the market participants think collectively. So me personally, I don't really know very much about what's going on in the background with Monero, with XRP, with XLM, with Ethereum, whatever. There are thousands of cryptocurrencies out there and altcoins and things that you can invest in. And I haven't got the brain space to know all of the fundamentals for every company out there, and I wouldn't want to. But if you look at a price chart, it's the one place that you can look at that brings all of those views and opinions in the market movers and makers that you can act upon. And some of these big players will know a lot more than I do, and they'll know it in advance as well quite possibly. So that causes the chart to move the way that it moves, and you can observe what a chart is doing a little bit like taking the temperature of a patient in hospital. You take the temperature of somebody, and they've got a high temperature, that tells you they're not very well, but you need to do a lot of other tests to find out what's wrong with them, and then to give them the cure. So one piece of evidence is not enough. You can't just draw a line on a chart and say, oh, the chart has gone above that line, so now that means the price is going up. No, that's not correct. You need to look at all of the evidence, you look at something called weight of evidence, and that's what we use in weather forecasting. You have to gather the air temperature, the pressure, the humidity, satellite images, radar images. The list goes on and on and on, and it's so long that only a supercomputer can calculate it all once you bring it all together. So you bring all of the evidence together, like looking at all of the symptoms on a patient in a hospital bed, and then you can give a diagnosis that might stand some chance of being correct. So I'll share my screen, and hopefully you can confirm that you're looking at the theme chart. We'll look at Monero in a second, but I just wanted to emphasize the importance of the big picture and what's happening with the stock market. This is the S&P 500, and I could show you a whole lot of evidence to do with Fibonacci extension levels, moving averages, and all sorts of stuff, but I boiled it down into a fairly simple chart that just has a simple support line and a simple zone of resistance here. And you can see the big drop that we experienced as we broke down below 6,000 and came all the way down towards 5,000. And then that just confirmed that was the terrace. Doug And this is what I'm talking about, so in your charts, was that something that was going to happen soon? Like we were expecting a big breakout up or down at some point, and then boom, what do you know? Trump is announcing... Nobody saw this coming. Trump is announcing extreme tariffs and boom. Kevin Hold that thought, and I'll blow your mind in a few minutes if you hold that thought, because something that I'll show you in a moment might fundamentally change the way that you look at charts or look at charts when they're done well. I'm not saying I'm the only good technical analyst out there, I'm not. But you need to be seeking out the analysts who do this with a modicum of professionalism. So with the S&P 500, a couple of scenarios are very clear a few days ago. And scenario A is that we are just having a complacency phase after a drop, and that the stock market is going to roll over, and we're going to go into a much more serious decline. And scenario B is that that doesn't happen, and quite the opposite happens, and we experience several weeks or months, probably, of stock markets doing well. And the clear decision area is this zone of horizontal resistance. It's access support and resistance. Now, this is a weekly chart, so you have to wait for weekly confirmation. So the fact that we have seen the chart breaking above this zone doesn't mean anything until we can see the blue line and the little dot at the top of it. That's showing you where we are currently on the S&P. But by the end of the week, that blue dot could come all the way back down here, and that will be a... Doug and not at them just being like a wick, right? Kevin That's right. If I pop it on the candle chart, you can see, instead of looking at these dots and lines, if I just pop it on the candle chart, perhaps put it onto a daily timeframe, you can see that these are all just candles and wicks. We've gapped up. There's a big gap there yesterday when I think the China deal was unveiled and tariffs had been reduced. The S&P gapped up, and that's where we are at the moment. If we stay there or higher through the end of the week, then scenario B becomes the much more likely outcome. Listen to the terminology I'm using. I'm saying much more likely. I'm not going to say it is guaranteed. It's 100%. Anybody in TA who tries to say that, you need to completely ignore them because that's just misleading people. We'll be able to say that the odds are much more in favor of scenario B playing out. That's useful as a trader or an investor because that gives you confidence when you're looking at trades that involve the S&P and the leading companies in the S&P. Now, if I just zoom back out and pop it back onto that chart with the lines and the markers, and I'll just overlay. You might have spotted I've got XMR on here, Monero. If I just show that, what I want to show here is the relationship that Monero has with the stock market. This is why it's important. If you look at, in general terms, when the blue line is going up, so is Monero. If I just adjust the S&P chart, there we go. When it's declining, Monero is in a from that chart that there is some reason to be paying attention to what the stock market is doing. I'll just expand the scale a little bit there so you can see price retracing on the stock market, price retracing on Monero. Same thing here. There's a big retrace on the stock market, and there's several large drops on Monero there. You can see the recent upturn coincides with the stock market if I just line it up for you there. There's a reason to pay pretty close attention to what's happening in the stock market. If I was to overlay a crypto total market cap on here, or even the altcoin chart or the Bitcoin chart, it's the same. Yes, on a daily time frame, there are times when Bitcoin goes in one direction and stock markets go in another direction. But what the stock market does is important for cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. People talk about decoupling a Bitcoin from the stock market. Well, it hasn't happened yet. If we get a large stock market decline later this year, for example, then we'll find out if Bitcoin has broken that link, and whether it's going to be acting as a hedge, and whether cryptocurrencies in general would act as a hedge as gold house traditionally. Doug It did seem Bitcoin did seem to act like it a little bit for the real first time this year. Right. Right. What saw it with with gold as opposed to trending with the you know the Nasdaq and S&P. Kevin It did do for a short period of time, but that's what I would call daily noise as opposed to the big picture trend. In the world of trading and investing, you have to decide whether you're a day trader or whether you're an investor over a period of weeks and months or whether you're a stacker, because that determines whether you're more interested in these big trends or whether you're interested in what's happening on a sub-daily timeframe. Doug It's still very much a risk on asset as opposed to. Kevin very much risked off, cryptocurrencies are risked on. So if we take a look at gold, and this is the bit that is going to perhaps surprise you, and I said a bit something might blow your mind. Well, if we just take a look at this tweet that I put out in 2019, and it says the big picture for gold, I'll just click on it for you. And it might look like a lot of mumbo-jumbo to people who are a bit new to technical analysis, but this is 2019 with gold at $1,313. Now notice what I've done, I've brought together a weighted evidence involving Fibonacci extension levels, support lines, resistance lines, and this arc pattern, which this geometric arc, which was forming at the time, which coincided with a lot of other technical analysis to suggest that the price was going to move to $2,000 the previous high, and then pull back over a protracted period of time at three years to the eight year cycle low, and then accelerate upwards in 2024 and 2025 towards the $3,000 area. So all of that was what I forecast in 2019. Now if we go back to the gold chart, this is how it looked in 2019 when I did that forecast. So people when they're looking at the gold chart, it looked like that. And I was looking at it and observing this pattern, which is very common in technical analysis. And therefore what I was saying is that the target is $2,000. I think you recognize it as a cup and handle pattern. I think most people would recognize or have heard of a cup and handle pattern. And then what happens when you get to the top, price either just carries on shooting upwards and doesn't need a handle, or it forms some sort of consolidation phase having reached the target. And whether it carries on going straight up like Bitcoin has done multiple times, or whether it forms a handle depends on where it is in its cycle and whether it's stretched from its moving averages and a whole load of other technical evidence. But on this occasion, we expected some sort of consolidation to happen here to form some sort of handle on the chart. Now if I just take that off and show you what happened, let me just press the replay button for you. And we can see how this plays out whilst I'm talking, but I think most people will probably be fairly familiar with what happened. Remember, I said the target was $2,000, then we're going to have a long consolidation before it moves up. So the idea of this is just to try and convince people watching this that if you bring together all of this weight of evidence, and of course up here, everyone was saying, oh, it's going up to $3,000, it's going up to $4,000. Well, no, it didn't do that. And also, similarly, when it was down at $1,300, a lot of people were saying gold is going to go to 800. If you use the technical evidence, the technical chart evidence, and bring all of that weight of evidence together, you can identify the most likely path for what is going to happen with gold or Bitcoin or Monero or whatever it happens to be. Kevin So you can see it hit the target, it's forming that long consolidation. And the price was stretched from its moving averages. Everything was screaming at you that the gold price was exhausted and needed to cool off. The reason it didn't come all the way back down to $1,000 is because gold is in a bull market. It's in a bull era that started all the way back in the year 2000, actually. And so gold is just pausing, consolidating in a bullish fashion. It hit its eight-year cycle low at $1,600 or so. And then from there, we know what happened next. It challenged the $2,000 area a few times. And you have people saying, oh, it's a triple top. Gold is going down to $1,000 again. It's not triple top because it's a handle forming on a cup and handle pattern. And of course, eventually, the price kept knocking away at $2,000 there. And then at the back end of 2024, it successfully... Sorry, back end of 2023, it broke out. I think it was December of 2023, January 2024, and off it goes. And then all of the energy is released at that point. There's a lot of energy trapped in this chart. This is where the physics comes in. It's like a coiled spring. And that analogy is true. The beach ball underwater, the spring. If there are strong fundamental reasons and technical reasons why the price of gold should go up, then when it breaks out, you know that all of this trapped energy is going to be released. And when you're talking about targets and people are saying, where is gold going to go? Well, the first target is the depth of that handle there. And if I just once again show you that that handle in fact formed a cup pattern of its own like that, and a simple TA method for analyzing the energy that's about to be released is to take the depth of that cup, which is measuring the downside energy, and replicate that on the breakout. And if you look closely, where did the gold price pause before it carried on moving up? It paused here at $2,700, which is what we call the measured move target. That measured move had been reached. And then the next breakout occurred. And you can see the next measured move was achieved when it got to sort of $3,500. And now we're pausing and consolidating again. So I hope that just kind of helps people to understand that technical analysis on something like gold, which people say is manipulated, the gold price is manipulated, the silver price is manipulated. Well, here's a news flash. Everything is manipulated. Because what is manipulation? Ask yourself that question. Manipulation is the market participants, whoever they are, whether it's the general public, or the evil bankers, or whatever it happens to be, the cartel. It's the market participants who are moving that chart and causing the chart to form these patterns. So manipulated or not, and I'm not going to disagree that on shorter timeframes, the gold price can be moved by big market players, of course it can, and silver especially. But over long periods of time, that makes no difference. Gold reflects loss of purchasing power. All gold is doing. Gold isn't going up in price. In fact, neither is anything really. Nothing's going up in price. Kevin What's happening is that you're watching the loss of purchasing power of the US dollar or the euro or the British pound or whatever your currency of choice is, your Turkish lira, if you want to see it in turbocharged form. So it's loss of purchasing power. Gold doesn't do anything. It just sits there and it affects loss of purchasing power in big jumps. It'll store it up for a while, and then that loss of purchasing power is suddenly reflected in the chart. Hence the gold coin we're roughly buying today, what it bought in Roman times. You can walk into a store and walk out with a full set of expensive clothing in Roman times with a gold coin, and you can do the same today. So that's what gold does. Doug The question is, according to that chart, where we headed now with gold, what are the large predictions now, given that we went through this process, went through the cup and handle, we've exploded. Kevin Yep, sure. Well, I can show you that. So this is what Gold's doing now. If we just get rid of some of these bits and pieces that we don't need, I'll just minimise that. There we go. So Gold broke out of a pattern that was contained by the 1980 high, the 2011 high, and then this reaction that we had at $2,700 or thereabouts, and eventually broke through that. That's sort of a rising wedge type of pattern. And we've reached the sort of measured move targets anywhere between sort of 35, $3,600 was where I thought it would probably go. The next logical thing now that Gold has very stretched from its three-year moving average, and I can actually show you that. If I just put the distance from moving average on the chart here, that's the black line at the bottom now. So this is how stretched Gold is from its three-year moving average. And if we just disregard the 1970s for a moment, you can see that this indicator is now something like over 50% above its three-year moving average. And it's only done that one, two, three, four times since the 1970s. So it's telling you that Gold is stretched. Now, why did it get so stretched from its moving average in the 1970s? Well, that's because in the 1970s, up until 1973, Gold price was pegged. It was pegged at whatever it was, $30 or something, $35. So when that peg was removed, Gold could suddenly find its true market value. So the price of Gold shot upwards, and the moving averages didn't have a chance to catch up because we're talking about the three-year moving average here. The three-year moving average takes years to start pricing in what the price has just done. So therefore, this is unrepresentative, this distance from moving average anyway, digressing a bit there. But the point is that it makes a lot of sense for Gold to cool off here and quite possibly come back down to anywhere between about $2,800 and $3,000 before accelerating probably to the next target area somewhere around $5,000 over the next two to three years. So that's the new Gold forecast, the new Gold roadmap based on the same techniques that I used to predict what happened back in 2019. Doug We've had. Kevin So looking at cryptocurrencies, something just to bear in mind is the gold to Bitcoin ratio. I'll get rid of some of these bits on the chart just so it's a bit cleaner for you. As you can see, the chart is going down and down and down and down and down. And that is because gold is underperforming Bitcoin. When the chart goes down, it means Bitcoin is outperforming gold. It's the gold to Bitcoin ratio. Now you can see it dropped very, very rapidly in the early days, and that's Bitcoin massively outperforming gold. But as time has gone by, Bitcoin has outperformed gold less and less and less. And in this first cycle, we had a 40-month period where Bitcoin didn't really outperform gold at all. When the chart goes sideways, it means they're both performing equally. And here in 2017 to 2020, that particular timeframe, Bitcoin didn't outperform gold. And then we had another period of outperformance there. And then for 48 months now, going back to March of 2021 when Bitcoin peaked versus gold, Bitcoin hasn't made new highs versus gold. So that's a four-year period where the chart has effectively gone sideways and Bitcoin and gold over that four-year timeframe have performed equally. So just to get it in your mind that the huge outperformances of cryptocurrency with Bitcoin versus gold, it makes sense that as the crypto market matures, these huge, incredible gains become more real, if you like. They become more what you would tend to expect from any kind of market instrument is what I'm trying to say. But nevertheless, cryptos and particularly altcoins still have that potential to have the big moves, 20% in a day, 30% in a day, that sort of thing. And over a short period of time, you can get these very big moves. Bitcoin on its monthly log chart looks very bullish, actually. You can see that Bitcoin's broken out of a resistance level and just very neatly backtested it. So it broke out when it was about 75,000, 80,000, and we've come back, backtested that. And we're moving up again. So on its monthly log chart, a little bit like back in 2020, the setup is quite similar. And whether we get this measured move all the way up to somewhere around 300,000, we'll just have 10,000 for Bitcoin might be a little bit unrealistic. But nevertheless, that technical chart pattern is there. The only thing that would probably stop it is time. And if the stock market doesn't, and if the markets in general encounter problems before Bitcoin has a chance to achieve that sort of measured move, and that's the one sort of question mark that's hanging over all of this is whether there's enough time to reach these more lofty targets. Doug Right, because you say it's correlated to the broader market. So if the broader market starts to slow down, then Bitcoin will slow down as well. Kevin Yeah, that's right. And there's stuff going on in the background in the economy, quite a lot of the economic data that raises questions as to just how long a stock market bullish move might continue for. But I suppose if we do get this confirmed break out for the S&P this week, things could potentially get quite crazy for a while. We could have what some people refer to as a melt up sort of scenario where you get a very rapid and very large upside move that sort of concludes the bull market era for the stock market. And if you're wondering why I'm saying that, why am I talking about the end of the bull market era for the stock market? It goes back to that thing that I was talking about, which is capital rotation. I'll just show you what I mean by capital rotation and why we've got ourselves into a bit of a sticky situation here. So if you look at the Dow to gold ratio, it helps you to identify these capital rotation events. And I'll just put it onto the quarterly timeframe for you. So we're looking at the quarterly chart. So each candle here is going to be three months. Okay. Let me just, there's a lot of labels on this chart. Just give me a moment to simplify this a little bit for you and I'll talk you through it. Okay. So Doug To those listening, we have almost 200 live viewers, guys, like and retweet. Let's get some noobs in here. A lot of people are interested in price right now. A lot of people are interested in Monero's price right now. Let's spread the word, like or retweet. I do have some XMR chats coming in. I'll bring those up when the time is right. I see somebody's asking about silver. Is a cup and handle forming on silver from 1981? I could throw that one at you when we have a moment. But yeah, guys, if you'd like me to ask a question, please send them in the form of an XMR chat. So xmrchat.com slash MoneroTalk, and you can send your Monero-based super chats. Kevin And don't worry, we'll get onto Monero specifically in on Oberst. This is just kind of building the background to that. So the Dow to Gold ratio is very, very important, whether it's Dow to Gold or the S&P to Gold ratio. Basically, it's the stock market versus gold. And using technical chart analysis, you can identify signals that crop up over and over again. And if you just take a step back and look at the chart, you can see it's like seasons. It's the temperature going up in the summer, then it falls in the winter. It goes up in the summer, falls in the winter, up in the summer, falls in the winter. These are the seasons being shown to us by the technical chart for stock markets and gold. And it's particularly important stock markets and gold because they act inversely when the stock market is entering a period of hibernation for many years where it doesn't make new highs for a decade or more. This is when gold flourishes. So the gold to stock market ratio is critical for everything that every investor, trader, and stacker needs to know. If you don't know where you are in this kind of series of seasons, then you're in trouble. So signal number one for this chart occurred in 1930, 1929, 1930, and that's when the chart broke down below its support line, below the moving average, and it broke below this green and red cloud that's on the chart. It's called the Ichimoku cloud. Now that only happens during a capital rotation event when the stock markets in this case took well over 15, 20 years to get back to where it was before the drop. So gold is massively outperforming the stock market when this chart drops. And then we had a huge era of stock markets doing great from the early 1930s through to the mid 1960s there. And at that point, we started to form a topping pattern that told us that the stock markets were going to die and gold was going to do incredibly well. The stock markets fell 50% or more, depending on which index you look at. Gold doubled, and then it doubled again, then it doubled again, and then it doubled again. That was signal number two in the early 1970s. Signal number three occurred in the early 2000s when the chart broke below rising support line, then it broke below the moving average, then it broke below that cloud that I spoke about. And during that period, the S&P fell 50% twice actually, fell 50% or more twice. It did it in 2008 as well, of course. And gold doubled, and then it doubled again, and then it doubled again. Had Bitcoin been around during this period, the expectation, based on the evidence, is that Bitcoin would have plunged with the stock market. A lot of people are going to probably pick me up on that and say, well, Bitcoin's going to decouple. Well, Bitcoin might decouple. It might start to act like gold. It might be digital gold. I've got an open mind. I'm unbiased on that, totally unbiased. I'll be able to confirm that Bitcoin is acting as digital gold. If it's out there, the chart has to tell us that it's going to do that. Thank you. Doug And then perhaps after this, whatever, the end of this next bull run or something, this could be where the transition starts to take place, perhaps. Kevin It could well be, yeah, it could well be. We remain open-minded to that as a technical chart analyst, just as you would with a weather forecaster. You have to be open-minded to your... I mean, I have expectations, I have ideas about what's likely to happen, but until the chart confirms it, I have to keep a lid on that and stay neutral, just in the same way that if I was forecasting a storm heading this way, I have to remain open to the idea that the storm is going to miss us and hit a town a few miles away. You have to keep looking at the forecast, keep looking at the analysis, keep looking at the evidence to make sure that things are moving in the direction that you expect them to. Doug And it obviously logically makes sense that Bitcoin, if it were to transition and start acting like gold, it wouldn't do so until it has a market cap that's topped out, which would be near the price of gold, because then it's less volatile, it's not just... Kevin Well, volatility is an issue, isn't it, of course, for it to be taken as a reserve asset or to be used in the banking system or whatever. Volatility is not a good thing and predictability is preferred because you can't build a financial system on anything that is liable to fall 80% every four years. You just can't. You can't be losing 80% of your purchasing power every four years. It just isn't doable. That volatility needs to subside for it to fill that role, if you like. Signal number four, I've just popped it onto the line chart now to make it a bit cleaner for you. You can see that we are rolling over, that was a topping pattern there, and we're broken down through critical support, through this cloud structure, through the moving average. All of the evidence, and also if we look at the distance from moving average at the bottom, it's broken down. This is the distance from moving average. Each time it breaks down below the zero line, last time was 2002. Well, we know what happened in 2002. It was a disaster for the stock markets that followed and gold doubled and then it doubled again and it doubled again. It broke down below the zero line here in the 1970s and that's when gold doubled and it doubled again and it doubled again and it doubled again and again in the 1930s. What I'm saying is that we're bringing to you the evidence here that we can look forward to the stock market doing badly and gold doing well. That's not with a 100% signed sealed and delivered guarantee. It's just purely observing technical chart evidence from the history books and using that to tell us what is the most likely thing to happen. I don't know, maybe 80% to 90% likely that this is what's going to happen is that as the months unfold, we're going to start seeing weakness in the stock markets and we're going to see continued strength for gold. This is why it's important to observe these particular charts and be aware of it. Doug Overall, we seem to be in or entering the season where stock market starts to go down and gold continues up. Like we said, gold went up pretty vigorously recently, stock market went down pretty vigorously recently, although now it's back up. But you're saying overall, when you really zoom out, it looks like we are in fact entering that season where a broader stock market is going into winter and gold is going into summer, so to speak. Kevin And this is a question timeframe, when you're talking about stuff with technical analysis or any kind of trade, you need to be aware of the timeframe that you're talking about. So what I'm saying is that we're moving into winter, but at this precise moment in time, we're experiencing a warm spell in early winter. So the stock markets are getting a boost, but my suggestion would be to be very wary of this. It could turn out to be a false move to the upside for the stock market. Doug Indian summer, we're having an Indian summer. Kevin and make the most of it. Yeah, make the most of it. You know, cryptocurrencies are looking great. You know, we're seeing Bitcoin dominance breaking down and all the, you know, this is a Bitcoin dominance chart here. And if I just pop it on the line chart, you can see that it's trying to break down here at the moment. We need a, you know, sort of a weekly confirmation would be nice. And we need a little bit more of a sort of vigorous move to the downside. We want really want to break below this lower black line. And that would really trigger, you know, what everyone's, I suppose, waiting for, which is, you know, a sort of euphoric end to this big, this cryptocurrency side bull cycle, because that's what we're missing so far. You know, we've, Bitcoin's gone wherever it was 30,000 or whatever, all the way up to 109 and a half thousand. But the old coin has had a little bit of a pop before Christmas. We had some nice trades on there. But since then, it's been very difficult and it's been very frustrating with most cryptocurrencies. I know there are some exceptions, but by and large, it's been a difficult space. So what's been missing is for this Bitcoin dominance chart to break down really strongly, this little move here was the one I was talking about back in October, November and December of last year, where it broke down and then reversed quite rapidly there. So we've been building out this rising wedge pattern here, which tells us that there's a conclusion coming, you know, it's going to resolve because the chart was getting squished into this wedge pattern. So we're getting a resolution now. It's starting to drop. We can have some trades in cryptocurrencies. We've got some, you know, on our website, we've got some open trades on some of the cryptos at the moment with careful stop losses. And just on that, you know, a lot of times people get involved in cryptocurrencies and altcoins and their risk and money management goes out of the window. But it's important to set your profit limit, set your entry point, of course, and set your stop loss. And if you're trading, make sure you know where your stop loss is. Fair enough, if you're just going to buy it and sit on it and be confident that it's going to go much, much higher in the years to come, and you don't mind sitting through an 80% decline, well, okay, that's fine. But if you want to trade it, then, you know, be aware of where your stop losses should be. Doug Any insight into how long this, you know, Indian summer can last, so to speak, right? Obviously, that's the million dollar question, right? You know, it does feel like the market feels like it came roaring back. You know, the tariffs is kind of a thing of the past. Markets ignoring it now, heading up, maybe interest rates start to get lowered at some point, putting more fuel into the fire. Kevin Ah, yes, I'll pick you up on that point as well a little bit. Just be aware that interest rates being cut can send the stock market down. In the year 2000 and in 2008, we had rate cutting cycles and the stock market collapsed. So don't necessarily pin your hopes on rate cuts. It's more nuanced than that. It's more to do with why rates are being cut and the economic backdrop to the rate cuts. So it's not the rate cuts that are going to make the stock market go up. It's not the rate cuts that are going to make cryptocurrencies go to the moon. It's the reasons and the mechanics and the economics behind what the rate cuts are trying to achieve and whether they're rate cuts in some sort of panicky environment with the stock market crashing or whether they're rate cuts, pre-emptive rate cuts in a healthy, good, well-functioning economy. It's two very different things. So in terms of the timeframe, if we just look at how long the last sort of alt season lasted, if you like, and just replicate that. And if we also look at the stock market, the S&P chart and do some timings on that and look at how long gold might correct for, they all sort of point to a possible period of several months into Q3 or Q4 of this year, where there's the potential for stock markets and cryptocurrencies to do well. Now, as I said, if we get a weekly close above about 5,800 on the S&P, 5,800, 5,850, that sort of area, then that makes the sort of melt up scenario much more credible and much more likely. And then that would open up the likelihood of this sort of drop on the Bitcoin dominance charts. You can see it's lining up with September, October. So that kind of timeframe, through the summer months, if you're in the, during the Northern hemisphere, the summer months and into the early part of the fall, maybe, that would be the sort of timeframe that I would have in mind for a bull run for cryptos and the stock market. And just moving on to XMR itself, looking at Monero, it's an interesting chart, actually. It seems to like these cup patterns when you start analyzing Monero, it forms these cup breakout patterns. It's onto its third one now. And so we got this breakout back in December, January sort of time, a little bit of time back testing. And I've added these colored zones to do with the Fibonacci extension levels. Fibonacci was this genius mathematician back in the day, a tiny mathematician. And it's amazing how often Fibonacci numbers come into the world around us, whether it's meteorology or whether it's human biology or patterns. Yeah, it's all to do with fractals. And it's amazing. But anyway, if you use TradingView, by the way, and you're not sure how to do this, I'll do it for you. I'll show you how you do it. You pick up the tool on TradingView, you go to the trend-based Fib extension, and you find the low point of a major cycle, and you just click the mouse button. And then you click the mouse button on the high point of that cycle where the bull market peaked. Kevin And then you drag it down to the low point. And I can extend it right across here. But if you just look at the bottom of that red zone at the bottom there, I'm just placing it on the low point of the bear market. And what that then does is it throws up the Fibonacci extension levels above the current price. And if we just take a look at how the price has reacted at the last Fibonacci extension level, you can see it had an effect. The price reached that level around 2.25, 2.30, and it halted, and the price came back. And then it's accelerated upwards. And we're now at this 0.5 extension level. 0.5 actually isn't a Fibonacci number, but 6.18 is. And 3.18, sorry, not 3.18, 3.82, is it? I forget the Fibonacci number, 3.82. So anyway, it's just one of the pieces of evidence that we use. It's helpful to get an idea of where these sort of targets are for the price. So quite clearly, the target area, because we've got the price up here back in 2017, we've got it up there in 2021. And this arc is a bit like that gold chart that I showed you a little while ago. It's guiding the price into the top right hand corner here, which is anywhere between about 400 and just over $500 there. And that's the initial target. That's where you would expect eventually within this timeframe for Monero to get. So you can see that September, October to move from 340 to maybe 500 is entirely plausible, entirely possible. We make back test all the way down to 260 or so and remain within this pattern. Now, the only other thing I would say is that if at any point we break above those previous all-time highs, somewhere in the region of 500, then that would unleash quite possibly a move similar to the one that we had back in 2016, 2017. That would unleash a much more powerful upside move. So two target. Doug That's what we're looking for. That's that's what we're baked out. Kevin I'm sure. Speaker 4 This is where the bias starts to come in. We're like, oh, yeah, yeah, that's definitely right. Kevin So if that happens then this is the measured move target and it would be somewhere up above where are we here above 2000 anyway I'm sure everybody watching this is going yeah great 2000 that's what we want you know Doug that feels right for Monero. As you can see it's been I don't know. It feels like it's been suppressed for quite some time with it not even hitting a new all time high in the second bull market right. Twenty seven. Kevin That's right, it's really just a matter, hasn't it, since 2017. Doug And I know you said manipulation is built into, you know, is considered anyway, right? But with Monero in particular, I don't know how closely we follow it, but it's pretty well known that exchanges were selling, quote unquote, paper Monero for some time. And then Monero has gone through a lot of delisting. So if you look at some of the larger spikes down where it really tanked, these were episodes where Monero was removed from some of the largest exchanges. And now it's really not on too many exchanges, actually, it's on Kraken in the US. But broadly, globally, it's been delisted from a lot of exchanges because of its privacy. Kevin Well, something's going on with Monero at the moment because you can see this zone of this. So what you're looking at here is the distance from moving average. So this chart goes from 2015 all the way to now, and the black line represents how far away we are from the moving average. So obviously when the price rockets to the upside, this black line goes up with it. And there's a zone of support and resistance on the distance from moving average. So what I was telling you is that under normal circumstances, you would expect Monero to be contained below this, or its distance from moving average, to be contained sort of below this zone of support and resistance. It was support in this huge bull market here, and it's been acting as resistance ever since. In fact, the main resistance area has been a little bit lower, it's down here somewhere. But clearly, we're breaking out, you can see where the distance from moving average is now. So something's going on, Monero's starting some sort of upwards trend here, and it's bullish. And as long as Bitcoin, and as long as the stock market remain healthy and in an uptrend, then there's no reason why Monero shouldn't do well from a technical point of view. We look at Monero versus gold. You can see that Monero of results. Doug Bitcoin would be nice too, but yeah, we'll take a look at it. Kevin Yeah. Yeah. I mean, versus gold is just the point of this is just to make sure that it's doing well in terms of capital rotation. And it depends how you draw your support and your resistance line, I suppose. But if you look at the horizontal level and we're breaking out here and Monero is clearly breaking out versus gold. If we plot it versus Bitcoin, so you just type in XMR, USD if you're on trading view and scroll down. I think one of the ones with the longest time history is on this one here, spot crypto. So anyway, you just select that one and put a forward slash in the search box. And then you type in XAU, USD, and it'll bring up a whole range of different exchanges. If you scroll down to, or just click on Oanda, that's the one with the greatest data series, hit return. And we've got, sorry, I didn't mean gold, I meant Bitcoin, didn't I? That's the whole point. Yes. Type in BTC, USD, and go down to the all time history index, hit return. There we go. So and put it on the monthly timeframe and see what we can see. So first things first, there's a declining sort of resistance line in there. And there's also a horizontal zone of support and resistance, which is very clearly in there somewhere. So from this chart, what I would say is that if this ratio chart can punch through this spot here, let me just put some moving averages on there. So we've got the, that's the 36 month moving average in there. And interestingly, we've got the monthly Ichimoku cloud just here as well. So if this chart could punch through that red circle, then things will go a bit crazy from an arrow at that point. It's trending in the right direction. You can see that we've had this bounce to the upside here. I wonder if there's a support line in there somewhere as well. There probably is something like that. So the important point here is it looks as though Monero is going to outperform gold Bitcoin to get to there. So we've got a little period of outperformance that seems highly likely. I'll just measure by how much you use the measuring tool. So it looks highly likely that Monero is going to outperform Bitcoin by about 35% to test that resistance line. So it does look as though the odds are in favor of a 35% outperformance over the next month or two maybe. Beyond that, as I say, if we can punch through this zone here, then potentially you could outperform Bitcoin by about 800% just to go back to that previous. Doug Where does it take you in the what's the number that you're getting there for the what the ratio would be? Kevin So that's 0.03, so I need more decimal places on this to give you probably more Doug 0.03 it would go all the way. Kevin 0.03. Oh, wow. Yeah, and so you can do some that would be like Doug That would be almost like a 10x in ratio, mid arrow to Bitcoin ratio. Kevin done. Yeah, exactly. But then there are an initial Doug Taking it back to almost its original all-time high against Bitcoin. Kevin Yeah, I mean, you can you can sit down, you sort of do some mathematics on this and work out what that means in terms of the actual price itself. But before you get to that point, you have to be aware that there's a little resistance zone there and there's also one here. So when you're doing when you're trading and you've got to trade an open trade, for example, you want to track these zones of resistance because as you start to approach them, you can take profits on your trade. Knowing that it's possible that that could be the end of the period of outperformance and it could come back down and that could be it for quite a long period of time. So identifying each one of these zones of resistance helps you with your open trades because you can look at your open trades, you look at your profit limit, your target on your open trade. And this extra piece of evidence helps you identify when you're likely reaching an entering target. So it's all sort of stuff that you look at in the background when you're when you're trading cryptocurrencies. Doug And what's the time frame look like for this potential breakout and Monero reaching a new... Kevin Well, again, it would be restricted to probably the next six months. So you would be looking at a move over the next six months. And beyond that, I think it's likely that if not before then, then by then, I think we're going to be into some real difficulties with the stock market. I'll show you one other chart that people Doug The other thing, too, I mean, if this were to happen, then it would kind of make sense that Bitcoin's price would be going down and Monero's be going up for us to reach that ratio, right, because obviously if Bitcoin is at $300,000, then we're talking about the price of Monero being at, you know, almost like $9,000 to be at that .03 ratio. Kevin the ratio goes that high, yes, the ratio to go that high. But the problem we have here as a technical analyst is that the data doesn't really go when you're zooming out this far, because the data only goes back to 2014 there. The Gold Chart has 100 years of historical data, and so does the S&P. So that increases your confidence levels when you're looking at how it behaves over long periods of time. You've got a historical precedent. You know how it reacts under different market circumstances. But Monero has never had to deal with what it's going to have to deal with, and what everything's going to have to deal with, which is this chart I'm about to show you. If I just show you why we've got a problem, and another reason why stock markets have got an issue, let me just give me a second to get this looking like an actual chart. This is the yield chart. It's the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield. Let me just get rid of this at the bottom, and I'll get rid of that, and I'll get rid of that as well. I cleaned it up a bit for you there. This is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, and what you'll notice is that when it dips below that red line at the bottom, which is zero, so when the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield becomes a negative number, and then it begins to move back up again, something happens. You get a named event, whether it's dot-com bust or financial crisis, subprime, COVID, something happens around that time. If we also put on the recessions, it's not a coincidence that the recessions occur just after this chart has moved back above the zero line. You look at each occasion when the chart moves above the zero line, a recession comes in, if not straight away, then a few months later. We're getting into that time frame now where we're expecting something based on that historical data that goes all the way back to the 1980s, 1990s there. So there's pressure from an economic point of view. So looking at jobs numbers is really important to this point, looking at the stock market is really important to assess the risk because you might have spotted that risk matrix in the top left hand corner there, and this is something that we use in the world of weather forecasting. What it does, it brings together the likelihood of an event, which could be a tornado outbreak, and the impact of that event if it were to happen. We're now in the high likelihood of a high impact event scenario based on the weight of evidence. So we're in that period where you're expecting a lot of turbulence, a lot of bad stuff to happen. We had the tariff stuff that's blown over or seemingly blown over, but has it? What damage has that done to the economy? What sort of economic figures are we going to get over the next few months? Doug Right, so we're in one of these positions like I'm talking about where the charts are almost saying like a black swan event would have something, something out of the blue is going to happen and it just may happen that way where something does happen, right? Kevin All it does. Technical analysts are not fortune tellers here, but by the same token, this isn't astrology for men either. It's bringing together a weight of evidence that helps you be aware of what's going on around you. You need to be aware of what's going on in terms of the markets, what the risks are, what the rewards might be, how risky is the backdrop. We're in a high risk environment at the moment, it has to be said, but with potentially quite high rewards. Because if we get that break above 5,800 on the S&P, then that melt up scenario comes into sight. You can get really good rewards in that situation, but you have to manage your risk because of the economic backdrop that's there. You have to manage that risk and make sure you don't get caught up in a really rapid sell-off. Somebody was asking about silver. I'll quickly Doug Yeah, kind of this, I mean, this seems like a pretty high likelihood too, right, that there's some impending doom around the corner, given the history that we're looking at here, right? Yeah, I'm sure. Kevin You know, you look at social media and you would be under the impression that impending doom is always present. And that doesn't really help you as ever. Doug This chart that you had just shown, right, it's pretty strong. Kevin It's strongly suggestive that something is going to occur probably later this year, that it's going to be worse than how things seemed during that tariff issue. Whatever it is, the tariff issue wasn't it, because it hasn't caused the damage that is required on the stock market. Gold has broken out versus everything really, and it's broken out versus the stock market. It's broken out versus consumer electronics. It's broken out versus technology. It's broken out versus healthcare. It's broken out versus all of the sectors in the S&P, basic materials and consumer discretionary and all that kind of stuff. Gold, because it's been so strong, it's broken out versus all of those things into a bull market. But the capital rotation events that we're talking about does not happen. It's not confirmed until the stock market breaks down on its own charts. It has to break down below major support, and it hasn't done that yet. Silver, people have been tearing their hair out with silver because it hasn't done very much. Gold has gone up by 50%. Silver has just frustrated everybody. Silver's trapped. It's a huge cup and handle pattern. I think someone was talking about that, and they were exactly right. You're not going to find a bigger cup and handle pattern anywhere, I don't think, because it's been building out since the late 1970s there. This latest portion of it is just the handle on that huge cup. Now, you saw what happened with gold, so there's no reason to think that the chart for silver isn't going to do the same thing. When we put the chart out in 2019, we had this target area here, and the chart has done exactly what we expected it would do. It's just gradually moving towards that target area until it breaks above 35, then that target is not activated. But when it is activated, and this is really, really important for anybody who's thinking, this is how I would play it. People are probably looking at this thinking, great, Kevin, all this technical analysis, but how do I use it? How's it going to help me? Well, at the moment, the way I would use it is this. Stock markets will get that confirmation at the end of this week, and hopefully at the end of month with solid closes above 5,800, then that tells you that you're much more likely to be doing well with the stock market and with cryptocurrencies. Okay, so that's good. That's where you do your trades for the time being. But for those who are in gold, we're in a gold bull market. We're in a gold bull era. There's no particular reason to sell your gold if you're holding it with a long-term view. But if you're a trader, you're wanting to know when's the next entry point for gold and silver? When can I get in? Well, the answer to that is you don't get into gold until it's unwound its distance from moving average. So it needs to, I would say, at least get to the $3,000 area. Anything below $3,000 gold is a bit of a bargain, and you'll look back in three or four years' time and you'll go, that was an incredible bargain. Kevin Gold will by then will be probably north of $6,000 or something. So gold will be a bargain, but it's going to be outperformed by silver, as is always the case after a stock market crash. So silver's time never really comes before the stock market is retraced 30, 40, 50%. So we need the stock market to roll over. Doug So silver is kind of telling us, too, that there's this impending stock market crash that thing? Well, yes. Kevin It's telling us, but yeah. Doug Because it usually doesn't typically perform until after that and it's kind of in a waiting period exactly Kevin And it's all about timing with things like precious metals miners and with silver. You have to time it right because you don't want to hold silver for the long term. You only have to look at what the silver price was in 1980 and compare it to now to know that. Silver, yes, it can go up by 1000% in a relatively short period of time, but then it gives it all back. It's massively affected by retail investors when they're compiling in during a precious metals bull era. On this chart, you've got the S&P at the bottom and you've got the silver to gold ratio on the top. So silver massively outperforms gold when this chart at the top is going up. And you can see it goes up by a significant amount after the stock market. The S&P has fallen 50%, 25%, 50%, more than 50% there, nearly 40% there. So when the stock market has reached its bear market lows, that's when silver outperforms gold. I mean, silver will already be going up probably before the stock market bottoms, but it outperforms gold. So if gold doubles and silver outperforms it by 100% or 150%, then you can double that again. So if gold doubles, then doubles again and doubles again, then you can start doing maths and working out in your own head what silver is going to do. If gold goes up 300%, silver will be doing 6%, 7%, whatever, 100% over the course of maybe, I don't know, 3-5 years, something like that, 3-5 year period. So the time to own silver is coming up, but it's not just yet because the stock market hasn't plunged and hasn't had its bear market lows. Doug Are we seeing people move into silver with this anticipation, starting at the stack? Is that something that can be seen in the charts? Kevin Well, I'll stop sharing the charts now and just, yeah, I, you know, look, some, some people stack silver, some stack gold, some stack, you know, cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, you know, if you're watching this and you're not too sure about the terminology, you've got to be really clear because when we talk about, um, you know, yeah, how can I put this when we talk about bull markets in gold or silver or cryptocurrencies, you have to define what you're trying to get out of that bull market. Are you trying to get in early and hold all the way to the, the peak of the bull market or are you wanting to trade or you want it, or you wanting to avoid the, the drawdowns because every bull market has 20, 30% drops, you know, gold or four, 30%, 20% in every bull market, you know, on its way up, you know, doubling and doubling again and doubling again. It doesn't get there without falling 20 or 30% usually several times. Same with silver and the same with Bitcoin, you know, Bitcoin has very large pullbacks in its bull markets. So you've got to get it straight in your mind, whether you're prepared to sit through those. And if you are, um, you need to look at the evidence to support the fact that you're still in an ongoing bull market because if you're not, and you know, do you really want to sit in an asset that is going to go nowhere for a couple of years? Yeah. I mean, I don't understand stuck in mentality really myself because, okay, um, why not just have a Bitcoin to gold ratio or a Monero to gold ratio chart and swap between the two? There are plenty of platforms on, online now where you can have your gold and silver digitally. You can have physical gold and silver that's, you know, stored in a vault and, and, um, audited independently, but it's digitized for you so that you can swap between gold and silver and cryptocurrencies and take advantage of that ratio chart. So when you know, gold breaks out against cryptos, moving to gold, what's your portfolio, what's your nav go up by a hundred percent or 200% and then go buy back into Bitcoin or Monero or crypto of your choice. And by doing that, you'll have double or three times as many Bitcoins, if you know what I mean, or, or Monero coins, you know, then you had to start off with. So try and be unbiased about it. And by doing that, you can actually increase your wealth if you like, you know, without actually having to put any money into it. Doug Easier said than done, but when you zoom out, it certainly makes sense, right? Kevin Well, you can use the weight of evidence to do that. You can use the weight of evidence to increase your chances of success doing that. And if you're a trader, you'll know this. You can have 75% of your trades as losers and only 25% of them as winners. But whilst that is happening, your NAV, your portfolio, is still growing. And that's because you get out of the losers before you lose very much and you let the winners run to reach your target and you take the profits when your profit limit is reached. So you set up a load of trades and say it's got a 4 to 1 reward to risk, then that means that you're risking $1 to win $4. Now, clearly, you can have three losers after that and you're still in profit. That's it. That's how you do that. Doug I'm certainly excited about the potential 0.03 BTC to XMR ratio. That would be exciting times here on Monero talk. You'd have to bring you back on. That would be amazing to see. And honestly, I personally wouldn't be too surprised. Obviously, I'm the ultimate Monero bull. But I do feel ignoring the charts just fundamentally, Monero appears to be gaining a lot more traction and mind share usage. People are waking up to what it is and realizing that it's something that's different than all the other cryptos. What is do you have any opinions there? So obviously, you know, you look at the charts, you look at gold a lot, you look at Bitcoin, but what do you have kind of like an opinion on the from the fundamental side of things of like Bitcoin, crypto in general, perhaps Monero, ignoring price and charts, just fundamentally what these tools are supposed to do and whether or not they're going to be growing in adoption and whether or not you believe in Kevin rarely talk about fundamentals because it brings a bias into the discussion. But I suppose if you pushed me on it, I would say that my sort of core sort of concern, if you want to put it that way, with cryptocurrencies in general is the sheer number of them. So, you know, there clearly is going to be a lot of failures in the crypto space and only the best would rise to the top. So, you know, we've got thousands and thousands of cryptocurrencies out there and very few of them will, I suspect, be here in 20 years time. And the types of technology that they're based upon, I just wonder if the march of progress in 20 years will lead to any kind of sort of inbuilt redundancy with these things. You have to ask yourself, what do you want from a cryptocurrency? Are you wanting it to be money? Are you wanting it to serve a monetary role? Why are you just using the thing for speculation because it's a play on the NASDAQ? It's a tech play. And I think if you're realistic about it, most cryptocurrencies and altcoins, they're just an exciting tech play. Okay. If you're a technical analyst and you're able to spot the breakouts and these measured moves, you can do great with cryptos and with altcoins and you hear some incredible success stories. But for every one success story, there's probably 100 that are very much not success stories and people losing. And I think the quickest way to lose money in cryptocurrencies is to hold for too long a period of time in some of the stuff that ends up going nowhere for many, many years. Bitcoin, if you stick with the ones with the largest market cap, then that's going to help. That's going to help with the volatility. It's going to help with reducing risk. It's the same if you're investing in mining stocks. If you're investing in silver junior miners or exploration companies, you have to do it knowing that you've got a much greater possibility that the company is going to go bankrupt and you'll lose all the money. But that's a risky take. So my approach would be to only have a small portion of your net asset value and things like that, and to focus more on the stuff that gives you the solid gains over time. I'm completely unbiased about it. I really don't have a view other than just observing the fact that the crypto space is strongly correlated with tech stocks. And when that changes, Doug What's interesting about Monero is it does appear to be acting as more and more like money. It's adopted for those purposes as opposed to something like Bitcoin, which is a speculated on. They try to categorize it more as digital gold, really, in my opinion, because it's failing as money. Nobody really buys things with Bitcoin. It's expensive to send. It's traceable. You can see every time you send a transaction, who wants to use money like that? As opposed to Monero, which is private, fungible, and we're seeing it get adopted for those purposes. The dark markets primarily use Monero now. They no longer use Bitcoin. They're using Monero. When we see a ransomware attack, they're asking for Monero. Maybe these aren't the best examples if you're concerned about those use cases, but it does show that it is being adopted for money like purposes and not purely just speculation. People that are just hoping that it will go up in price relative to other things. That's what makes me most excited about Monero is that it actually appears to be growing in adoption for actual digital cash purposes. People actually using it to transact. Kevin Perhaps I need to hold someone to ransom to get something to everything. Doug Well, there's better ways. You could sell legal goods and services. We have XMRbazaar.com. People sell legal goods and services there. I think it does showcase its utility, right? When there's somebody looking to make an exchange and they don't want the whole world to see what they're doing, just like with cash, Monero is what they're choosing. So it's taking on that role. And that really is what Bitcoin was meant to be initially. It's just kind of failed in that realm. And now it's become digital gold, which the question is, is that a thing? What do you think of that, of labeling Bitcoin as digital gold? Now that it's not really doing well as digital cash, nobody really uses it to transact. They're not using it as money. So it's Kevin I honestly don't see the point of calling it digital gold because we already have digital gold. Gold is digitized. I've got an account with, I probably won't mention the company, but I've got an account with a company that allows you to digitize your gold. It's digitized. I can walk into any, I've got a card, a credit card, I can walk into any store, anywhere in the world that takes credit cards and debit cards, I can spend my gold. And when I spend on that card, my allocation of physical gold, which is stored and, or in an international bullion vault, is reduced accordingly. I also get a yield for holding the gold, a holders yield. So I don't need Bitcoin to be digital gold because gold is already digitized. I can buy stuff in any store and I have done and I do do using this card with my physical gold. So my physical gold is I can take it anywhere with me in the world and spend it, and silver, and cryptocurrencies. They're all on the same card. And I walk into any store and I can use my cryptocurrencies, my silver, or my gold to buy my weekly groceries. It's not a problem. So Bitcoin in that sense, to me, isn't fulfilling any kind of unique need, you know, there's no unique need for Bitcoin in that sense. I don't get it. Doug How about this digital cash money utility? Do you think crypto, like Monero in particular, could fulfill that utility? Kevin possibly. I'm not an expert on that. My expertise is in technical chart analysis. You probably know a lot more than I do about that, but anything is possible. And what rises to the top over the next few years, you'll be able to see in the charts anyway, because the Monero to Bitcoin ratio would break out, the Monero to gold ratio would break out, and you would see that clearly represented in the technical chart analysis. So it goes back to why I kind of pay less attention to the narratives, because if narratives were a thing, Bitcoin would already be 300,000, Ethereum would be 10,000. I don't know how much attention you paid to the uranium space, but uranium was a big thing a year or two ago. People were investing in uranium miners because they went up 300, 400%. The narrative was that clean energy and all the uranium miners have got to go up to buy a 10X or whatever. And what's happened to uranium miners is they've gone nowhere for the last 18 months. In fact, they've lost 50% many of them. So it's not the narrative that you need to pay attention to. It's when the narrative affects the price. That's what matters. All the narratives in the world sound great, but if they're not driving the price in the direction that you want it to go, then ultimately there must be another narrative that you're not aware of. There are so many narratives out there that they're all competing one with another, and lots of people have different points of view on these things. So the narrative really only becomes a thing that matters once it pushes the price chart into a breakout situation, then the chart breaks out. It's not the breakout itself that matters. It's the fact that the algorithms spot that, the traders spot that, the hedge fund breaks out. That in itself is what matters. It's the fact that everybody spots it, and all these automated algorithms that will buy stuff on a breakout forces the price upwards, and you get this self-reinforcing movement of the price. That's what a breakout is. That's why as a human trader looking at a technical chart, it's important to spot these as they're developing, and the types of patterns that lead you to know that a breakout is imminent, because you can get ahead of the curve, and get in early. So it's not some kind of astrology. It's just simply observing the mathematics that work, observing market participants and what they do prior to a breakout, and how a breakout behaves, and profiting and benefiting from that. Back to my original point, narratives don't really drive my thinking. It's more the chart that has been affected by whatever. I don't mind what's moving the chart. Doug Well, it's, it's, it's quite bullish to see somebody who completely ignores the fundamentals and is just looking at the charts to say, oh, well, actually, actually, Monero chart looks pretty good without the bias involved. So we definitely appreciate hearing that. Hearing that here, you could have very well came here and said, uh, things aren't looking too good on the charts. But it's nice to hear that just even just from a charting perspective, being completely unbiased as, as you try to be, uh, it looks like there's, there's some good, uh, statistics in our corner that say it, it's very, you know, pretty likely that Monero is going to do well in the, in the coming months, uh, versus the broader market and verse, verse Bitcoin. So that's exciting. Kevin Yeah, something to look forward to. Doug Kevin, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate you taking the time to come hang out with us. Give us your insights. And yeah, we'd love to have you on maybe like six months from now or whatever a year from now to see where things are, that'd be fun. Kevin That'd be a great difference, and at next time I'll come with the shades on. Well, with all the colouring to the shades, it's... Doug Yeah, I'll wear my Monero glasses next time as well, since we'll be sitting at a $2,000 Monero .03 BTC. Kevin, why don't you tell people where they can learn more about you, find you. I'm sure you piqued a lot of interest here. People would want to continue to follow your insights. Kevin Yeah, sure. You can find me at Northstarcharts on X. And if you think you might want to delve into this a little bit deeper with the analysis, as I say, we've got a website that does all of this in great detail across all the markets. It's northstarbadcharts.com. If you mention the show Monero Talk, we will sort out some kind of discount for you. A very good discount, in fact. So just mention Monero Talk. And yeah, that's why you can find me. Yeah, good stuff. Doug And then, yeah, on exits, it's at North Star charts, right? Kevin have no stealth charts on X, yeah. Doug Yes, Kevin. Thank you so much. We'll be in touch and I'll see you on X. Thank you, man. Greatly appreciate you taking time. Kevin Please tell us. Doug All right, adios. Speaker 2 Hi, Monero Land, thank you for joining us on this week's episode. We release new episodes every week. 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