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2026 Week 2 Start/Sit Decisions Before Your Lineup Locks · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Week two is when fantasy managers make their first real mistake.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: They overreact to one game and bench guys who are actually walking into better matchups than they had in week one.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: I went through the coverage data, the target share, the route splits, all of it.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I've got starts this week that are gonna feel uncomfortable, guys coming off of quiet week ones that I actually think are in great spots.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: And a couple of sits that might surprise you too, even after some solid week one performances.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: So stick around because if you're setting your lineup off of how you're feeling about your players instead of diving deep into the matchups, you're gonna get this one wrong.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna group these guys in three sections starts, desperate starts, and sits.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go into my first start of this week, and that's Debo Samuel.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: With Dean Stribling out now for 10 weeks or so, Debo's gonna play a big role as the primary flanker opposite Mike Evans.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: He caught six or seven targets for 48 yards and a touchdown last week.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: And while I don't think the game is gonna be too competitive, although the 49ers do have the second highest implied team total of the week, Miami didn't give up a ton of production last week.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: And they played the Raiders, who don't really have any wide receivers worth talking about.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: So you can't really look at those stats and kind of translate it here.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: I do think Debo is gonna have a schematic upgrade in this game.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: Debo's typically an underneath guy, right?
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Like typically does well against too high safety coverage, but Brock Purdy was attacking single high last week with Debo.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what Miami played 71% of the time in week one.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: 6.5 yards per route run, which is absolutely ridiculous.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: Another ridiculous number, 67% targets per route run, which is absolutely insane.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: Overall, on a per route basis, Debo was second in targets per route run.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think he was only behind Puka Nakua last week.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: So solid wide receiver three start this week with upside.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Emeka Ibuka, another week healthier, you know, from that toe injury, and hopefully Baker Mayfield can hold on to the damn ball, right?
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Three fumbles was way too much, and too many drives coming to an end.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: This week, I'm expecting all these guys to bounce back, including Ibuka.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Last week he was much better against single high than too high coverage, and his target rate nearly doubles against that coverage.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: The Browns played single high 67% of the time in week one.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: Cleveland also got the second most touchdowns and the third most fantasy points to receivers last week against Jacksonville.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: This is a perfect get-right spot for Ibuka and the Buccaneers offense overall.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's talk about Jalen Coker.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: We're going back to the well.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: He was the highest scoring wide receiver in week one, and he's walking into another strong matchup against the Falcons in week two.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: And it's really about the coverage.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: Atlanta played single high safety coverage at one of the highest rates in the league in week one.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: Coker also dominated against that coverage in week one, 5.1 yards per route run against that coverage that ranked 11th among wide receivers last week.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: He also averaged 30% target rate against it as well, which is obviously great.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: He also led the Panthers in target share at 24% last week.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: And he was the first read for Bryce Young just as often as Ted Royal McMillan.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm riding the hot hand here and not really overthinking it at all.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: The guy who I think a lot of people are overthinking this week is Terry McLaurin.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: There's a big time bounce back coming for Terry.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: The Cowboys' defense was absolutely terrible in week one.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: McLaurin had the toughest matchup at wide receiver last week, going against Quinyon Mitchell and Reek Wollen.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: Dallas was dead last in EPA versus the past last week.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: This game total has won over 50 points.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: So while I said to sit McLaurin last week, he's back in my lineup this week.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Matthew Golden, 26% target share in week one.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: That was a career high, led the team, 11 targets last week.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: That tied JSN for second most in the NFL.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: He was also top three in end zone targets last week.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: He was also the first read for Jordan Love more than any other Packers pass catcher.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: If he continues this type of usage, which I was not expecting, I'm not gonna lie, he's gonna be the value of the draft.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: He lined up on the right perimeter on a majority of his routes last week, and the Jets gave up the sixth most fantasy points to wide receivers on that right side.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: And remember, this was against the Titans.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: Schematically, this is right up Golden's alley if they continue to use him like they did last week.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Tennessee played two high safety coverage 60% of the time against the Jets, and Golden was top 25 in both yards per route run and target rate against that coverage.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: He was outside the top 40 uh, you know, against single hike.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: He's a perfect wide receiver three this week.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's talk about Luther Burden, man.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, a bit of a disappointment from the entire Bears receiving core last week, despite the ridiculous offensive output they put up as a team.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: Minnesota couldn't stop the Packers' wide receivers last week, though.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: They allowed the second most fantasy points and the second most receiving yards to wide receivers.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: Hopefully, Burden's route participation goes up from 71% last week, but the matchup is really tough to avoid.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: He moved around quite a bit in week one, outside, inside, but the Vikings literally gave up fantasy points from every single part of the field.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: Left perimeter, right perimeter, slot.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: It didn't matter.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's why I'm still willing to start Romo Dunze as more of a desperate start this week.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: The route participation wasn't full time with him either.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: It was a lower, it was lower than the Dunsey's, but we have to keep in mind that he was dealing with the calf injury coming into the week.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: But good matchup, practicing in full this week.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: So those routes should go back up.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: My next start is Bill Krawski Merritt.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now, for Bill, A, he needs to not fumble anymore.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: He did lose some snaps because of it, but he was the first option at the goal line for the commanders out of that backfield, and that's gonna be a big deal, assuming he continues to be the guy, right?
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: All indications seem like Dan Quinn is gonna give him another chance this week, despite you know, a little bit of a punishment in week one.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Now, Jaden Daniels in the offense should be able to move the ball pretty easily against the Cowboys this week, and Bill's gonna be a big part of that.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: And if he continues to get those goal line looks, we could see a big game from him this week.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: The Cowboys allowed the ninth most fantasy points and the 11th most rushing yards to the Giants backfield last week, 4.3 yards per carry allowed, not bad at all.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: Very, very solid flex play this week with upside.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: All right, my next start is Bacial Tootin.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: He's playing the Broncos this week.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: Normally you're looking at this matchup and like, man, this is a tough one.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: I want to stay away.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: But the Broncos had a really hard time tackling anyone last week, especially Kenneth Walker.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: And listen, Bacial Tootin's not Kenneth Walker.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: I let's get that out of the way.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: I understand.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: But just like Walker, Tootin, you know, although nowhere is good, but very good at making defenders miss himself.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Top 10 had missed tackles forced per attempt since entering the league among qualifying running backs.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, so you look at the tape last week on Tutin, it was really good.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: So when you're looking at a competition between him and Chris Rodriguez, like it wasn't even close.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: He made a bunch of guys miss, he had a high success rate.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: Denver wasn't just susceptible to Walker last week, it was also the rookie Emmett Johnson who was able to make some plays and also make a ton of guys miss too.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: So I'd expect Tootin to get the majority of the touches out of the gate over Chris Rodriguez based on their play from week one.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: I think Tutin's a low-end RB2 start this week, and I think he's gonna keep ascending as the season goes on.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: Let's move on to our desperate starts of the week.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with Aaron Jones.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: I think this one's pretty straightforward.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: Jordan Mason's gonna miss at least the next four games, and Jones is going to be the Vikings primary back.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: Now, will we see some DJ Dallas?
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: Will we see some Damon Claiborne?
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe, but we should be treating Jones as a low end RB2 this week with upside.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: The Bears gave up the eighth most fantasy points to the Panthers backfield last week, 4.8 yards per carry allowed to their running backs.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: That was a ninth highest rate in week one.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: Solid start, Aaron Jones.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: Let's move on to KC Concepcion.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: There was good and bad from Concepcion in week one.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: We already saw some of the bad, and that's the Browns' offense stinks, but also Concepcion only ran around on 65% of dropbacks, mostly running out of the slot.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, when they're not an 11 personnel, it could be rough.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: He could be on the bench.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now, hopefully that role grows.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: He still didn't beat out Jerry Judy just yet for that other outside role opposite Denzel Boston.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: But listen, if you're desperate, I'll tell you why you can still start him.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: He's going against Tampa.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: They played single high safety coverage at the second highest rate in the league last week.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: Last week, Conception was targeted on 30% of his routes against single high.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: He also had a 3.9 yards per route run against them, which is also very, very high, uh, in case you needed some context.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, there was a big split, you know, with him running against two high versus single high.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: He does have a bit of an advantage this week.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: He also got three carries last week in addition to his five targets.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: So you look at the usage, it's not bad at all, despite the non-full-time route participation.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's also worth noting that Tampa gave up the 10th most fantasy points to slot wide receivers last week.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: So, hey, it can be worse.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: Actually, this one's probably worse.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: Mac Collins.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: Like this one is like super desperate, right?
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think I'd rather play Romeo Dobbs.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I think he'll bounce back as someone you can start.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: But I wanted to point out that Matt Collins was used more against too high safety coverage than when they were not going against that coverage.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: And the Steelers, their opponent, played that coverage at the 12th highest rate last week.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: So 3.44 yards per route run for Hollins against too high safety coverage, zero against single high last week.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: 27% targets per route run against too high, 17% against single.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: So deep, deep flex play for deeper leagues.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, I'd rather play Romeo Dobbs.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: I think he bounces back.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: Another potential bounce back, Jordan Addison.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: Sneaky, desperate start here, you know, bounce back option.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: You're looking for another deep one.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, super tough to throw Addison in your lineup after a goose egg, but Kylo leaving the game early definitely, you know, shook things up, not in the plans for the game.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's in a good spot here for a bounce back if you're desperate for some upside in your lineup.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: The Bears gave up the third most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers last week, the fifth most overall, the fourth most receiving yards to wide receivers.
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: They gave up two receiving touchdowns as well.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Chicago also played a lot of single high coverage last week, giving Addison a higher chance of catching a deep bomb in one-on-one coverage.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's move on to some of our sits this week.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: I think Marvin Harrison Jr.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: is definitely a candidate for this.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, you know, if you have no one else, you gotta start him.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: You gotta do what you gotta do.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: But I was just not a fan of his role last week as a primary vertical wide receiver, just not a fantasy-friendly role, right?
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think if we're putting him in our lineup, we're really depending on that one play to save his day.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's kind of what his role's set up to be right now.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: And Seattle's a tough matchup, like they just don't give up those big plays, right?
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: Arizona has the sixth lowest implied total of the week.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just staying away if I can.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about the Steelers backfield, Rico Doddle and Jalen Warren.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: The Patriots are a relatively tough matchup for running backs, but on top of that, when you're splitting work down the middle, like Rico and Jalen were last week, you're diluting it even more.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: Pittsburgh also has the fifth lowest team implied total on the week.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'm trying to find another option if I can.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: J.K.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Dobbins is another one.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: Now, RJ Harvey is not 100%.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: He could miss this game.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: He's dealing with a hamstring injury.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'm recording this on a Thursday afternoon.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: I'm on the East Coast, so we only know about you know the Wednesday practice for now that he missed.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but you know, they're going up against Jacksonville, right?
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: They just gave up 2.6 yards per carry last week.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, they were also super stout against running backs last year, too.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: Harvey had a bigger role last week.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Um, he kind of liked that Tyler Bidet uh role plus that RJ Harvey role last year kind of combined into the new RJ Harvey role, which is pretty good.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna get a couple more targets, etc., get the two-minute offense and that sort of thing, which is which will be pretty good.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I would imagine if Harvey does miss that, we do see either Tyler Bidet or Jonah Coleman getting more snaps, or both, which would suck either way.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: But Vegas does like the Broncos, you know, to score some points this week, but I'd imagine they get more done through the air than they do on the ground.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: Another guy that I talked about selling this week, uh, but I also don't love this week is Kalman onga.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: The Bears run game was just unstoppable last week.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: 100 yards and just 10 carries for Kal Manangay, longest run of his career, 20 fantasy points, RB1 finish.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just not betting on that happening again, right?
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: He only had 8.5 expected fantasy points in the game last week.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: And this week, the matchup is pretty tough against Minnesota.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Only 3.3 yards per carry allowed to the Packers running backs last week, only 6.6 total fantasy points allowed.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, a completely different offense, right?
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: Like different backfield too, different run game.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: But I just don't think this is the week I'd be trying to squeeze out fantasy points from Manongai's limited usage.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: So that's gonna be it for this week's starts and sits.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_00: If you want this every week before your lineup's lock, including the waiver episode and the trades episode every single week, subscribe to the channel.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna help me out a ton.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh it's really the best way to make sure that you don't miss the next one.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: Good luck this week.