Latest / Toadstool Sports / MLB ALCS/NLCS + NHL + NFL Best Bets Monday 10/13/25
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:08Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:12Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:15Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
- 0:18Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:20Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
- 0:25Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
- 0:28Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
- 0:33Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
- 0:37Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
- 0:41Speaker 1: browins hack Man, I don't know what is going on
- 0:43Speaker 1: with the Bruins arch Haape? Is that what it is?
- 0:46Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
- 0:50Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
- 0:53Speaker 1: But I'm not I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
- 0:55Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
- 0:58Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
- 1:02Speaker 1: I die. At least oh and two yesterday and yesterday
- 1:06Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Oh and five
- 1:09Speaker 1: the worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
- 1:12Speaker 1: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
- 1:14Speaker 1: you about this anymore. To the slumpers, the slump discontinuous,
- 1:19Speaker 1: the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:23Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
- 1:25Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
- 1:33Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's towed back with you better off dead. Monday, Monday,
- 1:39Speaker 1: October thirteenth, the Monday morning quarterback session. Oh is my
- 1:45Speaker 1: mic not working? I know it is working. I was.
- 1:47Speaker 1: I was making sure my audio is working. There it
- 1:50Speaker 1: seemed like it wasn't working for a minute. Jeffrey, what's up?
- 1:52Speaker 1: Thanks for coming back, Thanks for hanging out. Lose a
- 1:56Speaker 1: day yesterday on the Show two and two. In the
- 1:58Speaker 1: NFL start out Nice, we got the easy cover on
- 2:02Speaker 1: the Jets in the probably the worst football game that
- 2:05Speaker 1: was ever played in the London Game thirteen to eleven
- 2:09Speaker 1: final with Denver winning that game. The Jets had negative
- 2:13Speaker 1: ten yards of passing offense and they almost were able
- 2:15Speaker 1: to win the game. That's how bad that game was.
- 2:18Speaker 1: That would have been something historic. It probably was historic
- 2:22Speaker 1: in some way as far as how bad that game was.
- 2:24Speaker 1: But part of the handicap was this is gonna be
- 2:27Speaker 1: an ugly low scoring game, so the points mean more.
- 2:29Speaker 1: So Jets still didn't get the win. They actually recovered
- 2:32Speaker 1: a fumble though I called it. I said that. I
- 2:35Speaker 1: was like, there's gonna be I mean I did. I
- 2:37Speaker 1: said that the last couple of weeks, but it was
- 2:39Speaker 1: like at some point they have to recover fumble. It's
- 2:41Speaker 1: or something like they can't have no takeaways for the
- 2:45Speaker 1: first six weeks. I mean, that's just ridiculous. I'm having
- 2:49Speaker 1: no takeaways in the first five weeks. It only happened
- 2:52Speaker 1: maybe once ever, and it hadn't happened since the nineteen thirties.
- 2:56Speaker 1: It's just it's crazy. And then the Arizona ca Rdinals
- 3:00Speaker 1: got us to cover as well, and my Indianapolis Colts
- 3:03Speaker 1: still won the game, so all was good there, except
- 3:06Speaker 1: for the fact that if the Colts had lost, that
- 3:08Speaker 1: would have knocked out some more people from Survivor, which
- 3:11Speaker 1: I survived. I had the Pittsburgh Steelers and Survivor, even
- 3:14Speaker 1: though I went against them with one of my bets.
- 3:17Speaker 1: Sometimes you do that, man, It's just it's all strategy.
- 3:20Speaker 1: It's like game theory. Like I didn't want to burn
- 3:22Speaker 1: the Packers yet and Survivors. It was all like you
- 3:26Speaker 1: gotta just game theory and figure out, like what's the
- 3:28Speaker 1: best mix between, Like not a ton of people are
- 3:32Speaker 1: picking this team. This team still has a good chance
- 3:34Speaker 1: to win the game outright, and they don't have a
- 3:36Speaker 1: ton of future value and they're probably like maybe even
- 3:39Speaker 1: an overrated team right now. But I'm still pissed because
- 3:42Speaker 1: I could have gone Saints Raiders the last two weeks
- 3:44Speaker 1: and instead I went Colt Steelers Saints Raiders. Using those
- 3:47Speaker 1: two teams and still surviving would have been like perfect,
- 3:52Speaker 1: Like you'd have such a good setup moving forward and survivor,
- 3:55Speaker 1: and I unfortunately did not do that. I don't have
- 3:58Speaker 1: the balls, guess, But yeah, the Indianapolis Colts, I mean
- 4:03Speaker 1: Arizona they covered, I mean fairly high scoring game, kind
- 4:06Speaker 1: of ridiculous. Arizona was basically in that game the entire
- 4:09Speaker 1: way lost by four and then and they were winning
- 4:13Speaker 1: the game, I think at a couple of different points,
- 4:14Speaker 1: and then we lost the other two. The Cleveland Browns
- 4:17Speaker 1: just couldn't get anything going offensively. Man Aaron Rodgers had
- 4:21Speaker 1: some vintage Rogers up plays in that game too. He
- 4:26Speaker 1: still looks pretty good, man, I mean it wasn't just
- 4:29Speaker 1: like the reason why the Jets sucked was not Aaron Rodgers.
- 4:32Speaker 1: I mean they're zero and six right now with the
- 4:35Speaker 1: centire of the same team but with a different quarterbacks,
- 4:37Speaker 1: So like, what do you even though they should be
- 4:39Speaker 1: better than that, but still like it's not Rogers Rogers
- 4:42Speaker 1: looking good. Although I think the Steelers are gonna regress.
- 4:44Speaker 1: I don't think they're as good as they look. But yeah,
- 4:47Speaker 1: so we lost that one and then brutal loss on
- 4:51Speaker 1: the other one. Really the New Orleans Saints, I mean
- 4:53Speaker 1: they had they had a sixteen to sixteen to fourteen
- 4:56Speaker 1: lead in the third quarter and then they never scored
- 4:58Speaker 1: again and they lost by nine. So for the whole time,
- 5:01Speaker 1: they're just hanging around and you're just like, please just
- 5:03Speaker 1: score a touchdown and then you'll cover in the back
- 5:06Speaker 1: door or you'll get in the back door for me there.
- 5:08Speaker 1: But no, it didn't happen. Definitely chances for New Orleans
- 5:13Speaker 1: to cover that. Drake May had a pretty good game again,
- 5:16Speaker 1: looked pretty good again for what I saw, But Patriots
- 5:19Speaker 1: just generally didn't have the greatest game. It was one
- 5:22Speaker 1: of those games. It was just right on the edge,
- 5:24Speaker 1: like which way is this gonna go? And we came
- 5:27Speaker 1: up short on that one with the Saints. We'll move
- 5:31Speaker 1: on today to today. I'm gonna have three plays today.
- 5:34Speaker 1: I'm gonna have one in baseball, two in hockey. The
- 5:40Speaker 1: majority of the hockey teams are in action tonight, and
- 5:42Speaker 1: then we do have Monday Night football. I'm not gonna
- 5:44Speaker 1: give out a play on those two games, but we
- 5:46Speaker 1: have a stupid Monday Night not even a doubleheader. But
- 5:50Speaker 1: I mean, I don't want to get into how much
- 5:51Speaker 1: I hate that again. It makes the Monday nights less
- 5:54Speaker 1: special when you have multiple Monday night games going on,
- 5:57Speaker 1: like you don't get primetime all to yourself. It's really
- 6:00Speaker 1: really fucking stupid. Okay, and NBA just want to make sure.
- 6:05Speaker 1: Yet we're still in preseason with the NBA. Yes, NBA.
- 6:09Speaker 1: Next Tuesday, NBA will begin all right. Major League Baseball,
- 6:14Speaker 1: both Championship series are happening here as we had. Game
- 6:19Speaker 1: one of the ALCS was actually last night, and Seattle,
- 6:22Speaker 1: despite looking like there were maybe not a good rest
- 6:25Speaker 1: spot after playing fifteen innings two nights prior, they got
- 6:29Speaker 1: the win. Anyway, Toronto, I believe scored a run in
- 6:33Speaker 1: the first inning off of Bryce Miller and then never
- 6:35Speaker 1: scored again. Miller good performance from him in that game.
- 6:39Speaker 1: Gossman wasn't too bad either, but Miller outperformed him a
- 6:42Speaker 1: little bit, and then Seattle wound up winning the game.
- 6:46Speaker 1: Toronto used more of their bullpen too, so the setup
- 6:49Speaker 1: for Toronto is not exactly good in this game. I
- 6:51Speaker 1: wouldn't say, there's day hockey, Oh yeah, because it's Columbus Day,
- 6:55Speaker 1: so there's afternoon hockey. What's up? Restore? Send them what's up?
- 7:02Speaker 1: Amazing win by Seattle. Uh yeah, I mean I I
- 7:06Speaker 1: wish I had had to play on Seattle. I mean
- 7:09Speaker 1: that was close to being a play for me, because
- 7:10Speaker 1: I did think the spot was pretty bad for Jacksonville.
- 7:13Speaker 1: So I gave out Seattle as a one of my
- 7:16Speaker 1: stronger leans on the show. But yeah, I mean I wish.
- 7:20Speaker 1: I wish it was there, like I wish it was
- 7:22Speaker 1: on my card. Sures are is available. I don't know
- 7:25Speaker 1: if they want to go with that. I mean, he
- 7:26Speaker 1: has a lot of experience, he's I believe he's won
- 7:29Speaker 1: a World Series before too. But I don't know, man,
- 7:32Speaker 1: I mean, it's just uh, he's so old. Now, I
- 7:35Speaker 1: think Toronto's gonna try to not use him here. Uh,
- 7:38Speaker 1: but Toronto is gonna have to use some of their bullpen.
- 7:41Speaker 1: They used up a lot of their bullpen yesterday, Jay Man,
- 7:45Speaker 1: what's up? Man? Uh? Seattle used a decent amount of
- 7:48Speaker 1: their bullpen too, just because they used their They used
- 7:52Speaker 1: some of their high leverage relief arms last night because
- 7:55Speaker 1: it was a save situation last night, though Toronto used
- 7:58Speaker 1: more of their arms. Seattle generally does have the better bullpen.
- 8:02Speaker 1: Toronto is better at home, though, so something I forgot
- 8:05Speaker 1: to kind of explicitly say. Seattle was actually bad on
- 8:08Speaker 1: the road this year, thirty nine and forty two on
- 8:10Speaker 1: the road. Toronto is fifty four and twenty seven at home.
- 8:13Speaker 1: And if Toronto falls down too well at home, they're
- 8:16Speaker 1: not gonna win the series. Man. I mean, I know
- 8:19Speaker 1: it's possible, obviously in baseball. Baseball is a closer sport,
- 8:22Speaker 1: so it's more likely that you're able to overcome the
- 8:24Speaker 1: two deficit than in other sports. But it's gonna be
- 8:28Speaker 1: a bad situation if they if they fall behind two
- 8:32Speaker 1: obviously at home, what are we gonna do with this game? Well,
- 8:37Speaker 1: let's just go to it now, man, whatever, I'll give
- 8:40Speaker 1: up one of my best bets right now. We're gonna
- 8:41Speaker 1: go with Toronto on the money line in the first
- 8:44Speaker 1: five innings at minus one thirty two. The price is
- 8:46Speaker 1: actually about the same on Toronto full game and first
- 8:50Speaker 1: five I think because well, I don't know why, because
- 8:53Speaker 1: you think that Toronto's bullpen being overworked and not being
- 8:57Speaker 1: the better bullpen would give you more of a like
- 9:00Speaker 1: would give you a cheaper price on Toronto full game,
- 9:02Speaker 1: but it isn't. Really, We're gonna go with Toronto here.
- 9:06Speaker 1: I'll looking at the starting pitching only the first five though,
- 9:09Speaker 1: because I don't trust their bullpen. I'll logan Gilbert is
- 9:12Speaker 1: pitching for the Mariners, and I don't love the way
- 9:14Speaker 1: this sets up for the Mariners. To be honest, Gilbert
- 9:17Speaker 1: definitely had a good season three point four to four
- 9:19Speaker 1: ERA one point zero three whip. By the way, he
- 9:22Speaker 1: looks way better with the goatee that he has right now.
- 9:24Speaker 1: He looks like he should be pitching in the seventies
- 9:28Speaker 1: and chewing tobacco or something. So if if you saw
- 9:31Speaker 1: him pitch the other night, he was not as good
- 9:34Speaker 1: on the road though, four point seven to four road era,
- 9:36Speaker 1: so not good home road splits for him. Another issue
- 9:40Speaker 1: that I would have is that he pitched the other night.
- 9:42Speaker 1: He pitched three days ago in relief. That was that
- 9:45Speaker 1: that was the extra innings game. In Game five, he
- 9:48Speaker 1: had two scoreless innings against Detroit. There he pitched pretty well,
- 9:51Speaker 1: but I mean he did put too many guys on
- 9:54Speaker 1: base though, So three hits, one walk in two winnings
- 9:57Speaker 1: isn't exactly great. But didn't allow run, two strikeouts. But
- 10:01Speaker 1: that's gonna like put him off schedule a little bit.
- 10:04Speaker 1: So it's like, he can't possibly be giving you a
- 10:06Speaker 1: full start here, right because he went thirty four pitches
- 10:10Speaker 1: three days ago, So I don't I don't think we're
- 10:13Speaker 1: gonna see him give you a full start here. It's
- 10:15Speaker 1: kind of insane that he's the listed starter in this game.
- 10:18Speaker 1: It seems like the Mariners might still be without Wu too,
- 10:22Speaker 1: So this is a little bit of a sketchy situation here, man.
- 10:26Speaker 1: And then to make it even worse, Gilbert against Toronto
- 10:29Speaker 1: has bad numbers in ninety four career at bats, twenty
- 10:32Speaker 1: one to five, strike a walk ratios all right eighty
- 10:36Speaker 1: six eight eighty six ops allowed on three oh nine
- 10:39Speaker 1: batting average allowed. Those are not good numbers. So Toronto
- 10:43Speaker 1: has been able to hit him pretty well. So it
- 10:45Speaker 1: looks like the odds are kind of stacked against Toronto.
- 10:49Speaker 1: And excuse me, against Seattle in this game, especially in
- 10:52Speaker 1: the early going, I would say, so I don't like it.
- 10:56Speaker 1: You might see Gilbert be out of the game a
- 10:57Speaker 1: few winnings in which yeah, I means Seattle my bring
- 11:00Speaker 1: in some decent bullpen arms there. But I think Gilbert's
- 11:04Speaker 1: gonna get outpitched by Trey Savage. And I know Y
- 11:07Speaker 1: Savage had a huge emotional outing the last time out.
- 11:11Speaker 1: Everybody kind of knows who he is now because he
- 11:14Speaker 1: no hit the Yankees through five and a third in
- 11:16Speaker 1: the last series. Had eleven strikeouts, which was a blue
- 11:20Speaker 1: Jay I believe it was a blue Jay postseason record
- 11:24Speaker 1: eleven strikeouts, which I mean the fact that guys used
- 11:27Speaker 1: to pitch way longer into the game kind of seems
- 11:30Speaker 1: weird that eleven would have been a new record, But
- 11:33Speaker 1: I guess it is. Y Savage pretty good on the season,
- 11:36Speaker 1: three point two point ral the one point four to
- 11:38Speaker 1: three whip wasn't very good, but we know he is good.
- 11:42Speaker 1: I mean, he has this crazy over the top delivery
- 11:45Speaker 1: as one of like the highest arm angles in all
- 11:47Speaker 1: of baseball. The way his release point is like seven
- 11:51Speaker 1: feet above the mound, which is crazy. And he just
- 11:57Speaker 1: has some disgusting pitches, Like his splitter is just absolutely nasty,
- 12:01Speaker 1: and I think he has a really nasty slider two
- 12:04Speaker 1: along with a hard fastball twenty two. This guy's already
- 12:08Speaker 1: doing it. Man. He had a zero ERA at home
- 12:11Speaker 1: as well, which continued into the playoffs. But my one
- 12:15Speaker 1: issue would be that was an emotional game, man. I mean,
- 12:17Speaker 1: his parents were there. His fourth major league start ever
- 12:21Speaker 1: was a playoff game, and he set the Blue Jays
- 12:23Speaker 1: playoff record. Everything was awesome about it. Everything is awesome.
- 12:30Speaker 1: Everything is cool when you're part of his team. Yeah,
- 12:33Speaker 1: so it could be a little bit of an emotional
- 12:35Speaker 1: letdown from him here. But I don't know, man, because
- 12:38Speaker 1: we're in the ALCS and I think this guy is good. So,
- 12:41Speaker 1: I mean, we don't need him to be as good
- 12:43Speaker 1: as he was in that game to get us this
- 12:44Speaker 1: Toronto first five inning play here. We just need Toronto
- 12:48Speaker 1: to have their bats do something for us against Gilbert,
- 12:51Speaker 1: which I think is certainly possible, and we just need
- 12:53Speaker 1: you Savage to outpitch Gilbert plus whatever is coming in
- 12:57Speaker 1: after him, and I think it can happen. And of
- 13:00Speaker 1: my handicap, I was on that You Savage game. If
- 13:02Speaker 1: you were there for my show that day, I gave
- 13:05Speaker 1: it a play on the Blue Jays full game in
- 13:07Speaker 1: that one probably should have gone first five innings, but
- 13:10Speaker 1: they still hung on and won the game thirteen to seven,
- 13:14Speaker 1: even though Toronto's bullpen was really bad in that game.
- 13:16Speaker 1: Behind You Savage, Mariners have never seen him before, so
- 13:20Speaker 1: that's another advantage. That was a thing that I pointed
- 13:22Speaker 1: out in his previous game. What a really talented young
- 13:27Speaker 1: stud picture like this hasn't been seen before by the
- 13:30Speaker 1: opposing hitters. That's an extra advantage to the pitcher because
- 13:33Speaker 1: the hitters, I mean, yeah, you could watch game film
- 13:36Speaker 1: on him, but that doesn't you know, that's not as
- 13:38Speaker 1: good as facing him in a real game environment, like
- 13:41Speaker 1: you have to actually go out there and actually face
- 13:43Speaker 1: him live. It's a completely different thing. So hitters could
- 13:46Speaker 1: struggle to get up to speed facing some of these
- 13:49Speaker 1: pictures when they first see him. So I think that's
- 13:52Speaker 1: good as well. And the other good thing is that
- 13:55Speaker 1: Toronto's manager is not an idiot, right, Like, they're trying
- 13:58Speaker 1: to win the World Series here, So even though you
- 14:00Speaker 1: Savage had a no hitter going, and you know, I'm
- 14:04Speaker 1: still old school, I'm like, leave him in, man, let
- 14:06Speaker 1: him go with the no hitter. But I understand this
- 14:08Speaker 1: approach because they didn't want to burn him out. I mean,
- 14:10Speaker 1: he's still only twenty two years old. He didn't look
- 14:13Speaker 1: happy when they gave him. They gave him the the
- 14:16Speaker 1: plug there, they gave him the they pulled him in the
- 14:18Speaker 1: middle of the sixth inning there with nobody on base.
- 14:21Speaker 1: But I think he understood. I think everybody understood, Like
- 14:26Speaker 1: crowd gave him a standing ovation whatever. He only threw
- 14:28Speaker 1: seventy eight pitches. He was actually really efficient in that
- 14:31Speaker 1: game too, And that's good because that means he's not
- 14:34Speaker 1: overworked coming into this start. And he's really fresh too,
- 14:37Speaker 1: because I mean, yeah, he pitched him the minors this year,
- 14:39Speaker 1: but he's only made still four major league starts, so
- 14:42Speaker 1: he's certainly not overworked at all. So he should be
- 14:45Speaker 1: coming into this game fresh and basically at his best.
- 14:48Speaker 1: I would imagine, other than the fact that it could
- 14:50Speaker 1: be maybe a little bit of a letdown. So we'll
- 14:52Speaker 1: go with Toronto money line in the first five in
- 14:55Speaker 1: that game. Hopefully, hopefully we get that one done. It's
- 15:00Speaker 1: possible you Savage as a let down, but I think
- 15:02Speaker 1: he's so good and I think this sets up really
- 15:05Speaker 1: nicely for him with the fact that Seattle's never seen
- 15:07Speaker 1: him before. So I still like it. I mean, I
- 15:11Speaker 1: could I could see that game going over as well.
- 15:13Speaker 1: But if we look at what the market is doing,
- 15:15Speaker 1: we're actually fading the market read on Toronto here, and
- 15:18Speaker 1: I just don't even give a shit. Uh, They're out
- 15:20Speaker 1: for minus one eighteen of minus one twenty two, seventy
- 15:22Speaker 1: four percent of tickets, only sixty one percent of the
- 15:24Speaker 1: cash on them, So the money is actually disagreeing with
- 15:28Speaker 1: Toronto and coming in against them. I'm just gonna stick
- 15:32Speaker 1: with my handicap man like I do. Factor in the
- 15:34Speaker 1: market read usually very heavily, but I will occasionally fade it. Uh,
- 15:39Speaker 1: Like yesterday, I was right about the Raiders. That was
- 15:42Speaker 1: I didn't I didn't play it. I wish I had
- 15:44Speaker 1: them in Survivor, but I was at least correct about
- 15:46Speaker 1: that going against the market read on that one. The
- 15:51Speaker 1: under is getting traction in this one. By the way,
- 15:53Speaker 1: it's down from eight to seven and a half, fifty
- 15:55Speaker 1: three percent of tickets ninety seven percent of the cash
- 15:58Speaker 1: on the under. I mean, I don't know how how
- 16:00Speaker 1: much we could trust the way that these bullpens set
- 16:02Speaker 1: up in this game, though, especially with Gilbert maybe not
- 16:05Speaker 1: being in the game for that long, you savage, They
- 16:08Speaker 1: might kind of give him the hook around, you know,
- 16:10Speaker 1: five six innings again in this one, depending on what
- 16:12Speaker 1: he's doing, unless it is bad, and then he's out
- 16:15Speaker 1: of the game earlier than that. And then you get
- 16:18Speaker 1: Toronto's bullpen that's pretty mediocre and kind of used. Seattle's
- 16:21Speaker 1: bullpen is pretty good, but they did use their best
- 16:24Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday. So yeah, I mean, I actually probably
- 16:27Speaker 1: do slightlyly into an over in that game as well,
- 16:29Speaker 1: even though the market is the market is saying no, Yeah,
- 16:34Speaker 1: I don't like going against the money either, but I'm
- 16:36Speaker 1: gonna do it in that game. Although that market, those
- 16:40Speaker 1: market numbers are for the full game. We're going first five,
- 16:43Speaker 1: but whatever, and then we're gonna have the NLCS Game
- 16:47Speaker 1: one beginning with Dodgers Milwaukee. Milwaukee is staying at home
- 16:54Speaker 1: for this and the Dodgers have to travel in but
- 16:56Speaker 1: the Dodgers have had like four days off since they
- 16:59Speaker 1: beat the Phillies. Although the public are probably gonna be
- 17:03Speaker 1: back on the Dodger train, I would think even though
- 17:04Speaker 1: Milwaukee had the best record in baseball, I think the
- 17:07Speaker 1: public is gonna give the Dodgers more credit for what
- 17:09Speaker 1: they did to the Phillies, like beating the Phillies three
- 17:12Speaker 1: games to one or whatever. I think that looks way
- 17:15Speaker 1: better because the public was on the Phillies to win
- 17:17Speaker 1: the whole thing. So I think they're gonna give the
- 17:19Speaker 1: Dodgers more credit. And that was a road series for
- 17:22Speaker 1: the Dodgers too, They're gonna give them more credit for that.
- 17:25Speaker 1: Then they give Milwaukee for going five games, I think
- 17:28Speaker 1: with the Cubs and Milwaukee was playing a lot of
- 17:30Speaker 1: low scoring games, the Dodgers were not. So I think
- 17:33Speaker 1: the public is probably gonna be back on the Dodgers here.
- 17:36Speaker 1: But if they're gonna be doing that in this game,
- 17:38Speaker 1: they might actually be correct. I know the Dodgers are
- 17:42Speaker 1: not terrific on the road. There were only forty one
- 17:44Speaker 1: and forty on the road. Milwaukee really good at home,
- 17:47Speaker 1: fifty two to twenty nine at home. The Milwaukee was
- 17:49Speaker 1: actually really good on the road too. Best road team
- 17:52Speaker 1: in baseball was Milwaukee. But the way that this game
- 17:56Speaker 1: sets up, I think it does benefit LA a bit.
- 18:00Speaker 1: Starting pitching matchup. I think it's definitely a benefit to LA.
- 18:04Speaker 1: Milwaukee has the better bullpen, though, so somebody keep in
- 18:07Speaker 1: mind Milwaukee did at least have yesterday off, so their
- 18:10Speaker 1: bullpen is basically rested here. The Dodgers bullpen is of
- 18:13Speaker 1: course more rested than that, but the Dodgers' bullpen is
- 18:16Speaker 1: pretty questionable. The Dodgers have the worst bullpen left out
- 18:20Speaker 1: of the four teams remaining, so just a little bit
- 18:23Speaker 1: of something to keep in mind there. Although I have
- 18:25Speaker 1: the Dodgers winning this series in my bracket, I have
- 18:28Speaker 1: Seattle over the Dodgers in the World Series. But Seattle
- 18:31Speaker 1: is gonna need Woo back if they're gonna make you know,
- 18:34Speaker 1: they're gonna have a like a reasonable shot at doing
- 18:37Speaker 1: that in this series. Though. The Dodgers man this. The
- 18:41Speaker 1: way that their rotation set up for the playoffs really
- 18:45Speaker 1: really strong for the Dodgers, and it starts right here
- 18:48Speaker 1: with Blake Snell getting the call in Game one here.
- 18:51Speaker 1: And Snell is fresh too, so the Dodgers, you know,
- 18:54Speaker 1: they kind of just coasted through a huge chunk of
- 18:56Speaker 1: the season and they were missing some of their starters.
- 18:59Speaker 1: They get like he's best starter was like Snell and Glass. No,
- 19:02Speaker 1: they get them back, and not only does it mean
- 19:04Speaker 1: they have them there for the playoffs, but it also
- 19:06Speaker 1: means that they're not overworked because they were injured during
- 19:10Speaker 1: the season, so they didn't throw too many innings either,
- 19:12Speaker 1: So it sets I mean, it's almost like the Dodgers
- 19:15Speaker 1: did it intentionally. Hey, get hurt guys, and then then
- 19:18Speaker 1: we'll bring you back later in the later in the series.
- 19:21Speaker 1: Snell has been good though a two point three five
- 19:24Speaker 1: ERA one point twenty six whip on the season, not
- 19:26Speaker 1: as good on the road though four point three road
- 19:29Speaker 1: the RA but he's been good in the playoffs. He's
- 19:31Speaker 1: made two playoff appearances so far, thirteen innings total, only
- 19:35Speaker 1: a lot of five hits to earned runs eighteen to
- 19:38Speaker 1: five strike out walk ratio. He did walk four guys
- 19:40Speaker 1: last down, and he gets Philly, but that's I mean,
- 19:43Speaker 1: that's kind of what Snell does. He is very, very
- 19:46Speaker 1: difficult to hit, and he's a little bit too wild,
- 19:49Speaker 1: So I mean, to me, it looks like Snell is
- 19:51Speaker 1: informed to me, and that was still one hit performance
- 19:54Speaker 1: against Philly when he did that, So whatever, I mean,
- 19:58Speaker 1: Snell is pretty much in full four right now as
- 20:00Speaker 1: far as I can tell, I think he should do
- 20:02Speaker 1: well again here. And his numbers against the Brewers are
- 20:04Speaker 1: good in his career, although not a huge sample of
- 20:07Speaker 1: thirty three at bats, but fourteen strikeouts is a ton
- 20:11Speaker 1: five walks, four of them are Jansen uh batting average
- 20:15Speaker 1: allowed in four to seventy five ops allowed, So Snell
- 20:18Speaker 1: does do really well against the Brewers. So I was
- 20:21Speaker 1: looking at this and I was thinking maybe actually giving
- 20:23Speaker 1: out a play on the Dodgers action here, which means
- 20:26Speaker 1: that action means that your bet is going to count
- 20:29Speaker 1: regardless of who starts in the game, because Milwaukee is undecided.
- 20:34Speaker 1: But if you look at what's going on here, Milwaukee
- 20:37Speaker 1: has Freddy peral to list it as the starter tomorrow.
- 20:40Speaker 1: And you know who Milwaukee used out of the bullpen
- 20:42Speaker 1: a couple of days ago. They use like Missierowski and
- 20:47Speaker 1: Woodroff is hurt. So I mean, I think you can
- 20:48Speaker 1: pretty much guess what Milwaukee's gonna do in this game
- 20:51Speaker 1: based on all that, and I'm pretty sure it's going
- 20:53Speaker 1: to be Quinn Priester in this game because he hasn't
- 20:56Speaker 1: pitched for like four days. So I am almost positive
- 20:59Speaker 1: the Quinn Pester is going to be the starter here.
- 21:02Speaker 1: Oh he might be an opener as well, so for Priester,
- 21:06Speaker 1: and if that's the case, I actually think that Milwaukee
- 21:09Speaker 1: has a better chance in this game. Even though I
- 21:12Speaker 1: know I faded Priest in his last outing and he
- 21:14Speaker 1: was terrible. Priester was good generally three point three two ERA,
- 21:18Speaker 1: one point two to four WHIP on the season, although
- 21:21Speaker 1: again I think he overperformed, but of course he had
- 21:23Speaker 1: that one really crazy stretch where Milwaukee won like nineteen
- 21:28Speaker 1: of his twenty appearances or something like that, nineteen appearances
- 21:32Speaker 1: in a row. Actually, I think he was not as
- 21:35Speaker 1: good at home though, three point eight two home ERA.
- 21:38Speaker 1: Of course, that one outing he had in the playoffs
- 21:40Speaker 1: was terrible. I think it might have been his first
- 21:41Speaker 1: playoff appearance too. I had the Cubs in that outing,
- 21:44Speaker 1: and the Cubs in that game. I gave out the
- 21:46Speaker 1: Cubs on my show. They still won, but man, the
- 21:50Speaker 1: Cubs had four runs in the first inning off Prester
- 21:53Speaker 1: and then they never scored again. Priester gave up the
- 21:57Speaker 1: four runs, only lasted two and a third innings. He
- 21:59Speaker 1: was terrible. Three hits, two walks, one strikeout. I expect
- 22:03Speaker 1: if he does pitch here, I do expect him to
- 22:05Speaker 1: do better than that. Though here going up against the Dodgers,
- 22:09Speaker 1: he actually has good numbers in his career against the Dodgers.
- 22:12Speaker 1: It's a small sample of twenty at bats, but the
- 22:14Speaker 1: only one extra base hit off him a double from Freeman,
- 22:17Speaker 1: ten strikeouts, one walk, one fifty average allowing three to
- 22:21Speaker 1: ninety ops. So surprisingly, Preester actually really good against the
- 22:26Speaker 1: Dodgers in the past, although now that they've seen him before,
- 22:29Speaker 1: maybe they'll hit him a little bit better. I would
- 22:31Speaker 1: still lean to the Dodgers, but I have my hesitations
- 22:34Speaker 1: on that if it is going to be Priests, so
- 22:36Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna just stay away from it. Dodgers
- 22:38Speaker 1: are up for minus forty six as a road favorite here,
- 22:43Speaker 1: so you're not really getting much of a bargain on
- 22:45Speaker 1: the Dodgers. Although with the fact that Milwaukee had the
- 22:48Speaker 1: best record in baseball, it's kind of crazy to see
- 22:52Speaker 1: them as a home underdog here, so maybe that will
- 22:55Speaker 1: help split the action a little bit more. But I
- 22:56Speaker 1: still expect the public will be on the Dodgers as
- 22:59Speaker 1: well because of recency bias. Totals at seven and a
- 23:03Speaker 1: half not really moving. I mean, I can see some
- 23:07Speaker 1: arguments for an under in this one, even if it
- 23:09Speaker 1: is Snell against pre Star. I mean, you can kind
- 23:11Speaker 1: of see that maybe they won't give up too many
- 23:14Speaker 1: runs here in the bullpen's at least are rested, and
- 23:17Speaker 1: Milwaukee's is fairly good, and maybe actually Milwaukee actually might
- 23:21Speaker 1: have the best bullpen left out of these four teams,
- 23:24Speaker 1: especially because McGill is back. We will see what happens.
- 23:28Speaker 1: I'm not going to give out a play on that one, though.
- 23:31Speaker 1: Is their value in Milwaukee on the series at plus
- 23:34Speaker 1: one seventy two, that is a really hefty underdog price,
- 23:38Speaker 1: man for a home team that had the best record
- 23:40Speaker 1: in baseball. Maybe, I mean, I think you are paying
- 23:43Speaker 1: attacks for the Dodgers. But of course I do think
- 23:45Speaker 1: the Dodgers are gonna win the series though, as I
- 23:48Speaker 1: I mean, I have them in my bracket. I think
- 23:50Speaker 1: the Dodgers are the best team in baseball, and except
- 23:54Speaker 1: for their bullpen, but I mean they can kind of
- 23:56Speaker 1: overcome that with how good their offense is and how
- 23:58Speaker 1: good they're starting rotation currently is oh, because I think
- 24:02Speaker 1: they have the best starting rotation right now. But yeah,
- 24:06Speaker 1: I mean the fact that the Dodgers have favored by
- 24:08Speaker 1: that much and they had a worse record on the
- 24:11Speaker 1: season than Milwaukee and through the road team in the
- 24:13Speaker 1: series almost like what I said with this game, that
- 24:15Speaker 1: kind of actually tells you something that the oddsmakers are
- 24:18Speaker 1: basically telling you that they think the Dodgers are gonna
- 24:21Speaker 1: win the series. But I mean, I do think the
- 24:23Speaker 1: price is probably a little bit too high. Would I
- 24:26Speaker 1: take the shot on the Brewers though? I don't think so.
- 24:29Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Dodgers are gonna win the series,
- 24:33Speaker 1: So I don't know. I don't know if that answers
- 24:34Speaker 1: the question. Well enough, Roberts got cute with the pitching
- 24:38Speaker 1: against the Phillies. What do you mean exactly? I didn't
- 24:43Speaker 1: really see what they did, but they've had so many
- 24:44Speaker 1: days off now it doesn't even really matter. Dave Roberts, right,
- 24:50Speaker 1: former Red Sox player, former Dodger player, and the Dodgers manager.
- 24:54Speaker 1: Now is you're talking about? I assume always remember Dave
- 24:58Speaker 1: Roberts for that stolen base, the infamous stolen base in
- 25:02Speaker 1: the two thousand and four alcs man helping the Red
- 25:05Speaker 1: Sox come back from three and beat the Yankees in
- 25:09Speaker 1: the best series in history in any sport. Absolutely crazy
- 25:15Speaker 1: had that excellent, crucial stolen base there. They pinched random
- 25:19Speaker 1: And the thing about that was everybody knew he was
- 25:21Speaker 1: gonna steal second, or at least attempt to steal second,
- 25:24Speaker 1: and the Yankees still couldn't stop him from doing it.
- 25:27Speaker 1: That was that was wild. It was close. They almost
- 25:31Speaker 1: got him, but they did not. All right, let's go
- 25:35Speaker 1: to hockey. I'm gonna give about two players here. I'm
- 25:39Speaker 1: gonna try to be a little bit selective here. In hockey,
- 25:42Speaker 1: we do have after noon hockey. Like you said on
- 25:45Speaker 1: Columbus Day, you get after noon hockey starting with Colorado
- 25:48Speaker 1: and Buffalo. I'm not gonna I'm gonna try to not
- 25:50Speaker 1: talk about every one of these games, but most most
- 25:54Speaker 1: of the hockey teams are playing today. I do think
- 25:55Speaker 1: generally Colorado is gonna letdown spot here. They just took
- 25:58Speaker 1: their first loss of the sea unfortunately, because we had
- 26:01Speaker 1: Colorado on my show, and that one they lost in
- 26:04Speaker 1: a shootout to Dallas, and that was a playoff revenge scenario.
- 26:08Speaker 1: For Colorado as well against a good Dallas team. Now
- 26:11Speaker 1: they have to go out on the road, which in
- 26:13Speaker 1: a way might be better because you kind of get
- 26:15Speaker 1: to forget about that and just go out on the road.
- 26:17Speaker 1: So sometimes when a team starts a road trip, it
- 26:19Speaker 1: is a focused spot for them, but I think they
- 26:22Speaker 1: might be hung over after that. It could be a
- 26:24Speaker 1: hangover spot after that huge game. I would be considering
- 26:28Speaker 1: Buffalo more if Colorado had a bigger game up next,
- 26:31Speaker 1: but they don't really. They face Columbus next, but I
- 26:33Speaker 1: do think generally does a hangover spot, so I would
- 26:37Speaker 1: be leaning to Buffalo in this game. You're getting a
- 26:39Speaker 1: huge price with Buffalo, a huge underdive if you really
- 26:42Speaker 1: want it. Buffalo has not looked good so far, losing
- 26:47Speaker 1: by a combined seven to one to the two disappointments
- 26:50Speaker 1: last year, the Rangers and the Bruins. I don't think
- 26:54Speaker 1: the Bruins are good, which I'm gonna talk about in
- 26:56Speaker 1: a minute. I think they're better than people said they
- 26:58Speaker 1: were going to be coming into the Sea, but I
- 27:00Speaker 1: don't think they're actually good. I do think the Rangers
- 27:02Speaker 1: are good, but Buffalo not very good. Still, it looks
- 27:06Speaker 1: like a spot where maybe you could take the shot
- 27:08Speaker 1: with Buffalo. I mean, the price has gotten out of control.
- 27:10Speaker 1: It's up for minus one forty one seventy five on Colorado.
- 27:14Speaker 1: Some of that move might have been because of goaltending
- 27:17Speaker 1: changes and like who we expect the goalies to be able,
- 27:19Speaker 1: though even that I don't think should affect the line
- 27:21Speaker 1: that much. Eighty nine percent of tickets ninety seven percent
- 27:24Speaker 1: of the cash coming into Colorado, so they do have
- 27:28Speaker 1: the cash. But they're a very public road favorite in
- 27:31Speaker 1: a non advantageous spot. So if I was gonna play it,
- 27:34Speaker 1: I would probably take the shot with Buffalo. You're taking
- 27:39Speaker 1: the chalk in what the nlds or with the Aves.
- 27:43Speaker 1: I wouldn't lay the price with the Avs in that game.
- 27:46Speaker 1: Tampa and Bruins is gonna be one of my plays,
- 27:48Speaker 1: so I'll hold off on that. We'll talk about Winnipeg
- 27:53Speaker 1: and the Islanders here. Winnipeg is coming off a big
- 27:56Speaker 1: win as well against the La Kings and starting a
- 28:00Speaker 1: road trip though, but having to travel over to the
- 28:02Speaker 1: East to do it for the first time this year,
- 28:04Speaker 1: so sometimes usually starting a road trip generally, I would
- 28:07Speaker 1: say it is a focused spot. But just like I said,
- 28:09Speaker 1: with Colorado. When you're coming off a big game, it
- 28:13Speaker 1: makes it a little bit more difficult to do it
- 28:15Speaker 1: like that was a pretty big win over the Kings.
- 28:17Speaker 1: The Kings pretty solid team. Winnipeg has actually played two
- 28:21Speaker 1: big games already against Dallas in LA and of course
- 28:25Speaker 1: we lost with Winnipeg as well. We keep losing fading Dallas.
- 28:28Speaker 1: Isn't that just great now? Yeah, they get a chance
- 28:30Speaker 1: to get out of there. Going on the road maybe
- 28:33Speaker 1: a good thing. But first time traveling all the way
- 28:36Speaker 1: to the East, the first trip on the season, I
- 28:39Speaker 1: think makes that trip a little bit more difficult in
- 28:41Speaker 1: my opinion, and coming off a couple of big games,
- 28:44Speaker 1: I don't think it's a great spot for Winnipeg and
- 28:47Speaker 1: the Islanders. You know they're gonna be pissed right now.
- 28:49Speaker 1: I think the Islanders are better than their ower and
- 28:50Speaker 1: two record looks. I think they're a potential playoff team
- 28:54Speaker 1: or playoff caliber team this year. They've lost both games already.
- 28:58Speaker 1: They can't really blame them for losing to a good
- 28:59Speaker 1: watch Washington team. I am gonna blame them for blowing
- 29:03Speaker 1: the game against Pittsburgh where they probably should have won
- 29:06Speaker 1: that game. They outplayed Pittsburgh in that game that was
- 29:09Speaker 1: a loser for us on the show. But yeah, I
- 29:11Speaker 1: think Islanders being back at home, I do think they're
- 29:14Speaker 1: gonna be a bit angry coming into this one. So
- 29:17Speaker 1: that would be my slight lean, and that when the
- 29:19Speaker 1: money is disagreeing with me, though the money's coming in
- 29:21Speaker 1: a Winnipeg up for minus one of three to minus
- 29:23Speaker 1: one twenty with fifty nine percent of the cash on
- 29:25Speaker 1: them sixty two percent of tickets on the Islanders, makes
- 29:28Speaker 1: no sense to me that the Islanders will be public here.
- 29:31Speaker 1: Although you're looking at hockey like in the morning here,
- 29:34Speaker 1: a lot of the ticket percentage is actually professional bets
- 29:36Speaker 1: in hockey because the public doesn't bet hockey as significantly.
- 29:40Speaker 1: Although in a day where it's a holiday and they
- 29:42Speaker 1: are all these afternoon games, the public will come in
- 29:45Speaker 1: a little bit more because you know, the public, if
- 29:47Speaker 1: they're off today and they want to bet something, they
- 29:49Speaker 1: only have hockey to bet during the day until until
- 29:52Speaker 1: the night, so they will probably bet some of these games.
- 29:56Speaker 1: But yeah, so all that to take into account, the market,
- 30:00Speaker 1: Reid is still indicating on Winnipeg though, but I somewhat
- 30:04Speaker 1: disagree with it, but certainly not gonna be a play Buffalo.
- 30:08Speaker 1: You're gonna lay it with the Avs, or you're taking
- 30:11Speaker 1: Buffalo as a home underdog. You mean, so you're going
- 30:14Speaker 1: against the Shock. Yeah, I mean you could take a
- 30:17Speaker 1: shot with Buffalo. I mean it pays out pretty well.
- 30:20Speaker 1: You're getting a huge price on them, and I think
- 30:22Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Colorado, but I don't know. Man.
- 30:25Speaker 1: Detroit at Toronto. We won with Detroit against Toronto last
- 30:30Speaker 1: time out. It was a six to three win, although
- 30:32Speaker 1: a little bit of a misleading result, not that they won,
- 30:35Speaker 1: but the way that they won six to one. Detroit
- 30:37Speaker 1: did outshoot Toronto in the game, so they were the
- 30:41Speaker 1: better offensive team in the game. Toronto did out hit them,
- 30:44Speaker 1: which is kind of weird because I always think of
- 30:46Speaker 1: Toronto as more of a finesse team and less of
- 30:48Speaker 1: a physical team. But they out physical Detroit in this game.
- 30:52Speaker 1: Detroit did win the faceoff battle. Detroit had the lead
- 30:57Speaker 1: late in the game anyway, but they got two empty
- 30:59Speaker 1: net goals at the end, which made the final score
- 31:01Speaker 1: look really ridiculous. Still it was I think it was
- 31:04Speaker 1: definitely worth the shot as the underdog there. Detroit flipped
- 31:08Speaker 1: the two nothing deficit into a three to one. Excuse
- 31:11Speaker 1: a three to two lead with Patrick Kane, the guy
- 31:14Speaker 1: who assaults Cabby's and is still playing in the NHL
- 31:17Speaker 1: for some reason, these these old Chicago Blackhawks players, I
- 31:22Speaker 1: don't even know where they are now. Caine is apparently
- 31:24Speaker 1: with Detroit, and I saw Taves. Taves is on the
- 31:29Speaker 1: Winnipeg Jets now I think he just came back. I
- 31:31Speaker 1: was like, Taves is still playing. I don't even know, man,
- 31:35Speaker 1: But yeah, Detroit still got the win for us. They
- 31:37Speaker 1: were the right play as the underdog in that one.
- 31:39Speaker 1: I think we had that one right, but the way
- 31:41Speaker 1: that they won looks a little bit more ridiculous than
- 31:43Speaker 1: it was. Now Toronto gets a chance at revenge back
- 31:47Speaker 1: in Toronto. It's a short trip going from Detroit to Toronto,
- 31:50Speaker 1: but it is a quick revenge spot. So I would
- 31:52Speaker 1: somewhat lead to Toronto and this one, Toronto is the
- 31:56Speaker 1: better team. You're not really getting a cheap price thother
- 31:59Speaker 1: up from minus one sixty five, so minus one seventy
- 32:02Speaker 1: three sixty six percent ticket, seventy six percent the cash
- 32:05Speaker 1: on Toronto, so they are getting the cash percentage as well.
- 32:09Speaker 1: I would lean that way because they were better in
- 32:11Speaker 1: that game than the final score looked. I think I
- 32:13Speaker 1: would prefer doing something like that if they were the
- 32:16Speaker 1: road team, actually, because I like the road reversal revenge
- 32:21Speaker 1: spot better when a team lost at home and then
- 32:23Speaker 1: they play that team immediately again on the road. I
- 32:26Speaker 1: think it's a I think you get the biggest edge
- 32:29Speaker 1: in that scenario. But I would still lean to Toronto
- 32:32Speaker 1: in this one. If you're gonna do it, I would
- 32:33Speaker 1: do one of those things where you make your own
- 32:35Speaker 1: minus one puck line or whatever and put some amount
- 32:39Speaker 1: of the bet on the puck line and the other
- 32:40Speaker 1: amount on the money line to get the price down
- 32:42Speaker 1: a little bit. So, yeah, Kane as a rapist, he
- 32:46Speaker 1: might be, I don't know. Yeah, surprisingly it's him and
- 32:51Speaker 1: not Evander Kane. By the way, Evander Kaine is still
- 32:54Speaker 1: out there somewhere too, But yeah, Patrick Kine never a
- 32:57Speaker 1: fan of that guy. What else we got here, Florida
- 33:02Speaker 1: at Philadelphia. Did I see any sort of angle on this?
- 33:05Speaker 1: I don't know if I did. Florida's three and zero
- 33:07Speaker 1: to start the season. They're coming up a pretty significant
- 33:10Speaker 1: win over Ottawa last time out, so I don't know.
- 33:13Speaker 1: Maybe something to consider that they could be in maybe
- 33:17Speaker 1: a slight letdown spot. It is their first road game
- 33:20Speaker 1: of the season, so maybe the spot isn't great for
- 33:23Speaker 1: Florida here, and it is Philadelphia's home opener, and it's
- 33:27Speaker 1: a revenge spot because Philadelphia did lose on the road
- 33:29Speaker 1: to Florida. Florida. Actually, I think I'll play them maybe
- 33:33Speaker 1: more than what the final looked like. Let me say,
- 33:34Speaker 1: I forget if I dug into this box score, Yeah
- 33:37Speaker 1: they did. Florida had a lot more hits and a
- 33:39Speaker 1: lot more shots, So Florida really their first two games,
- 33:42Speaker 1: they completely outplayed Chicago and Philadelphia statistically, but barely won
- 33:47Speaker 1: the game. So I don't know. Maybe Florida will take
- 33:51Speaker 1: Philadelphia a little bit more seriously because the game was close,
- 33:53Speaker 1: but Florida did dominate them more than it looked like
- 33:56Speaker 1: on the scoreboard. So those are kind of indicators that
- 33:58Speaker 1: maybe Florida would be a way to look in this game.
- 34:00Speaker 1: But I I'm not sure, man. I mean, I do
- 34:03Speaker 1: think it's a little bit of a revenge spot for
- 34:05Speaker 1: the Flyers, and it is their home opener, so I
- 34:07Speaker 1: do expect motivation from Philly here. The money's coming in
- 34:11Speaker 1: on Florida. Significantly though, for minus one twenty three to
- 34:13Speaker 1: minus one fifty three sixty six percent of cash on
- 34:16Speaker 1: them fifty seven percent of tickets on Philly, which again
- 34:20Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense. The public could be on an
- 34:22Speaker 1: zero to two Philly team, So I don't really get
- 34:25Speaker 1: these ticket percentages right now, the money is saying Florida.
- 34:30Speaker 1: I mean, I might slightly disagree, but I'm not I'm
- 34:32Speaker 1: not gonna I'm not gonna give I'm not gonna give
- 34:34Speaker 1: out a play on that. Nothing is a locks or
- 34:38Speaker 1: they got robbed against Carolina. But that's kind of the
- 34:41Speaker 1: problem that I have with the spot that the Flyers
- 34:43Speaker 1: are in because Carolina is a really good team and
- 34:45Speaker 1: they almost beat Carolina, so that could kind of put
- 34:48Speaker 1: them in like a hangover spot here. So I don't know,
- 34:51Speaker 1: they're gonna honor Bernie parents, all right, I don't know
- 34:53Speaker 1: too much about like who some of these guys are, man,
- 34:56Speaker 1: But yeah, so it is gonna be a big, probably
- 34:59Speaker 1: like emotional game for Phillies. So yeah, I mean I
- 35:02Speaker 1: would slightly lean to Philadelphia in the game, but I
- 35:04Speaker 1: have some hesitations with that one for sure. I haven't
- 35:08Speaker 1: mentioned any of the starting goalies here by the way,
- 35:10Speaker 1: because generally all the starting goalies are playing here. I
- 35:13Speaker 1: think you're gonna get the number one goalie for pretty
- 35:16Speaker 1: much every team today because nobody played yesterday except for
- 35:20Speaker 1: Washington and the Rangers, by the way, and Washington won
- 35:24Speaker 1: that game. But those teams are both off today, so
- 35:27Speaker 1: I think because they those teams both played two days
- 35:30Speaker 1: in a row, so they both so they get it
- 35:32Speaker 1: off today. New Jersey Columbus is gonna be my other
- 35:35Speaker 1: play today. Don't know if I have too much of
- 35:40Speaker 1: an angle otherwise than any of these games, Kings are
- 35:42Speaker 1: playing Minnesota, which is kind of an interesting setup here.
- 35:45Speaker 1: The Kings have had a really difficult schedule to start
- 35:48Speaker 1: the season. They're one and two, but it's partially because
- 35:50Speaker 1: they've played two road games that they actually won, one
- 35:53Speaker 1: of them against Vegas. They lost to Colorado and Winnipeg.
- 35:56Speaker 1: I mean, they played all good teams so far. It's
- 35:59Speaker 1: a third straight row game, but that means less in
- 36:01Speaker 1: hockey when it's a road trip. I mean, you're used
- 36:03Speaker 1: to playing a road trip, although yeah, a team can
- 36:05Speaker 1: kind of get fatigued towards the end of a road trip.
- 36:07Speaker 1: But they're only going from Winnipeg to Minnesota here, which
- 36:10Speaker 1: is in a huge travel leg here with one day off.
- 36:16Speaker 1: Still kind of a difficult setup anyway, though it looks
- 36:18Speaker 1: like to me for the Kings Minnesota just like last year.
- 36:21Speaker 1: Though I don't think Minnesota is as good as people
- 36:23Speaker 1: think they are, because they're a team that just kind
- 36:25Speaker 1: of scores a lot of goals, but they're not really
- 36:27Speaker 1: as good as they look. They did just lose seven
- 36:30Speaker 1: of four to Columbus, so they might be a little
- 36:31Speaker 1: bit pissed, and they're staying at home, so the spot
- 36:34Speaker 1: does look a little bit better from Minnesota to me,
- 36:39Speaker 1: and you know, she's still trying to get their first
- 36:41Speaker 1: home win here at least as well, so I think
- 36:44Speaker 1: it does set up a little bit better, although the
- 36:46Speaker 1: Kings will be stepping down in class here though they
- 36:48Speaker 1: face three teams already that are better than Minnesota. The
- 36:51Speaker 1: Minnesota is not a bad team. The public is on Minnesota,
- 36:54Speaker 1: though eighty seven percent of tickets only eighty percent of
- 36:57Speaker 1: the cash. Minnesota seems to just be a public side
- 37:00Speaker 1: just because they have offense. They're up from minus one
- 37:02Speaker 1: o nine to mins one twenty on the money line,
- 37:05Speaker 1: so I don't know, man, the money line moved on Minnesota,
- 37:09Speaker 1: but now it looks like the actual money's coming back
- 37:11Speaker 1: against them. So it looks like LA is getting the
- 37:14Speaker 1: actual professional money there. Yeah. I mean, I'm not gonna
- 37:19Speaker 1: have anything to do with that, but let's go to
- 37:21Speaker 1: the Uh, We'll go to the best bet segment now,
- 37:23Speaker 1: and then I'll finish talking about the Monday night games,
- 37:26Speaker 1: the football games, I mean, and then we'll be done.
- 37:29Speaker 1: Didn't have the breakdown graphic today, but whatever, So I
- 37:32Speaker 1: already give out the play in Toronto Blue Jays first
- 37:35Speaker 1: five hockey. We're gonna have two plays. The first one
- 37:37Speaker 1: we're gonna go against my Boston Bruins, and we're gonna
- 37:40Speaker 1: go with the Tampa Bay Lightning. And we are getting
- 37:43Speaker 1: some lightning here right now, by the way, so very
- 37:46Speaker 1: appropriate that the lightning are coming to town into Boston.
- 37:50Speaker 1: And we're in the middle of a nor'easter here right now,
- 37:52Speaker 1: which I don't know if that's gonna affect Tampa's travel
- 37:55Speaker 1: or not here. Uh, but I'm gonna go with Tampa anyway.
- 37:58Speaker 1: Tampa is used to this type of weather in Flora.
- 38:00Speaker 1: I mean, this is just crazy. We're getting all this
- 38:02Speaker 1: rain and wind out here right now. Crazy storm out
- 38:06Speaker 1: there right now. But Tampa's up for minus one thirty
- 38:08Speaker 1: four to minus one fifty eight now on the money line,
- 38:11Speaker 1: seventy per ticket, seventy five percent of the cash. I
- 38:13Speaker 1: didn't see a money line cheaper than minus one sixty
- 38:15Speaker 1: four when I looked by the way, So unfortunately, we
- 38:18Speaker 1: could have gotten a better price on Tampa earlier and
- 38:21Speaker 1: just played the money line. But now I'm gonna recommend
- 38:23Speaker 1: basically doing a half and half on this one. Is
- 38:25Speaker 1: split half the bet on the minus one and a
- 38:27Speaker 1: half puck line and the other half on the money line,
- 38:29Speaker 1: because that comes out to you're paying about the same
- 38:32Speaker 1: that you would on like a normal bet size if
- 38:35Speaker 1: you split it about half and a half. If you
- 38:36Speaker 1: want to use that calculator that I showed you, you can
- 38:39Speaker 1: do that too to make the exact minus one puck line.
- 38:41Speaker 1: But either way, I think it's fine. We're gonna go
- 38:44Speaker 1: with Tampa here. And of course kind of ridiculous to
- 38:48Speaker 1: need a road team in hockey to win by two
- 38:50Speaker 1: goals to collect on the the you know, smaller portion
- 38:55Speaker 1: of the bet that's gonna be the smaller portion of
- 38:56Speaker 1: the bet though, So the way the way that you
- 38:59Speaker 1: do this, if they win the game by even one goal,
- 39:01Speaker 1: you're still gonna win some money on it. So I
- 39:04Speaker 1: think it's all right to do it that way. But
- 39:06Speaker 1: I think this is a very very misleading set up
- 39:09Speaker 1: here when you look at these teams records, the public
- 39:11Speaker 1: is still not even buying it, though the public is
- 39:13Speaker 1: on Tampa Bay. But look at these teams records. Man,
- 39:16Speaker 1: Tampa's oh and two. The Bruins are three and oh.
- 39:19Speaker 1: They're undefeated at home, two and oh and home. Yet
- 39:21Speaker 1: Tampa is this very substantial road favorite, So what gives Well,
- 39:27Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are telling you not to believe these early
- 39:30Speaker 1: season records here. They're telling you Tampa is still the
- 39:33Speaker 1: way better of these two teams. And I agree as
- 39:37Speaker 1: a Bruins fan. I mean I'm not I'm not holding
- 39:40Speaker 1: my breath as far as what the Bruins are gonna
- 39:42Speaker 1: do this year. And I do think they're better that
- 39:44Speaker 1: people expected them to be. I think they're gonna be
- 39:48Speaker 1: better than people expected them to be this year, but
- 39:49Speaker 1: I don't think they're exactly good. Now. Tampa hasn't won
- 39:53Speaker 1: a game yet, so it might actually be good for
- 39:54Speaker 1: them to just leave home and go on the road.
- 39:57Speaker 1: They've lost both games, but to decent teams Ottawa in
- 40:02Speaker 1: New Jersey, and they were both somewhat close games too,
- 40:04Speaker 1: so it's not exactly like Tampa is playing poorly, although
- 40:07Speaker 1: Vasilevski hasn't exactly been great in nets so far, but
- 40:11Speaker 1: he seems to just start slow sometimes. I don't know, man,
- 40:15Speaker 1: it will be Vasilevski against Swayman in this one. I
- 40:18Speaker 1: do think Swayman is the better goalie of the two,
- 40:20Speaker 1: but they're both pretty good goalies. I just think Tampa
- 40:23Speaker 1: is gonna be able to outplay the Bruins in this game.
- 40:25Speaker 1: I think Tampa just has a deeper roster. I think
- 40:28Speaker 1: they have the better game play, the better offense. The
- 40:32Speaker 1: Bruins the other three and zero, but two of their
- 40:35Speaker 1: wins are an overtime win against Chicago, although the Bruins
- 40:38Speaker 1: did outplay them more than what that overtime than what
- 40:43Speaker 1: the fact they won an overtime would tell you. Like
- 40:45Speaker 1: it was, it was a close game on the score,
- 40:46Speaker 1: but the Bruins did outplay them. And then the bruins
- 40:49Speaker 1: most recent win was against Buffalo. I mean, Buffalo's not good,
- 40:52Speaker 1: so the Bruins their only good wins so far was
- 40:55Speaker 1: at Washington, and maybe that was a little bit of
- 40:56Speaker 1: a fluke. Although Swayman played really well in that game.
- 41:00Speaker 1: Swaman is off to a really good start, so but
- 41:02Speaker 1: I mean, you can't be up every single game, man,
- 41:04Speaker 1: so at some point he's gonna have some down games.
- 41:07Speaker 1: Even though I do think he's really good. I think
- 41:09Speaker 1: he's one of the top goalies in all of hockey.
- 41:12Speaker 1: But I just think this setup is not good. Tampa
- 41:15Speaker 1: is hungry for the first win. I think going on
- 41:17Speaker 1: the road will be good for them, just forget about
- 41:19Speaker 1: what the hell's going on at home. Bruins look better
- 41:22Speaker 1: than they actually are right now, So we're gonna go
- 41:24Speaker 1: with the lightning in that one. It's one of those
- 41:26Speaker 1: early season setups where the records can be completely misleading.
- 41:30Speaker 1: So that's what we're gonna do in that one. A
- 41:35Speaker 1: dog day afternoon. Yeah, that game is in the afternoon
- 41:37Speaker 1: as well. I'm gonna have one night game as well.
- 41:41Speaker 1: The Tampa Bruins. You like Tampa as well, you love Tampa?
- 41:44Speaker 1: Do you like it or do you love it? As
- 41:46Speaker 1: John Gruden would say, And then finally we're gonna go on.
- 41:50Speaker 1: This one is gonna be harder to swallow. I mean
- 41:52Speaker 1: people will be able to swallow. If that doesn't sound good,
- 41:55Speaker 1: that's what she said. People are gonna be able to
- 41:58Speaker 1: swallow the Tampa one. Probably the other one maybe not
- 42:01Speaker 1: so much. We're gonna go with the Columbus b Jays,
- 42:04Speaker 1: the Blue Jackets, the Blue Jobs at plus one point fifteen,
- 42:07Speaker 1: getting a decent home underdog price on this one. It's
- 42:10Speaker 1: gonna be a fade of the Javels. Nobody messes with
- 42:13Speaker 1: the Devils except I'm gonna mess with them here. I
- 42:16Speaker 1: do think the Devils are the better team. Obviously the
- 42:18Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you this. But I don't like the
- 42:20Speaker 1: setup for the Devils here. I don't like the spot.
- 42:23Speaker 1: They're out for minus one twenty six to minus one
- 42:25Speaker 1: thirty eighty six percent to ticket sixty four percent of
- 42:27Speaker 1: the cash. So we are going to fade the public
- 42:31Speaker 1: in this one, and the money is saying to do so.
- 42:33Speaker 1: The money's coming back on the Columbus side. I think
- 42:35Speaker 1: we're gonna get a pretty solid price on this. You're
- 42:37Speaker 1: gonna get both starting goalies in this one. It's gonna
- 42:39Speaker 1: be Mark Strom against Elvis, who I can never pronounce
- 42:42Speaker 1: his last name. I don't think he's a very good goalie.
- 42:44Speaker 1: But Columbus just plays all these high scoring games, man,
- 42:49Speaker 1: so it's probably gonna be another one of those. But
- 42:51Speaker 1: I'm expecting Columbus to be able to get this done,
- 42:54Speaker 1: even though I think Mark Strum is probably the better
- 42:56Speaker 1: goalie over Elvis Mrs. However you pronounce his name sounds
- 43:02Speaker 1: such a terrible name, man, He's he's Murr's licking good.
- 43:07Speaker 1: We're going with the with KFC here, kfg CFG the
- 43:14Speaker 1: Columbus Fried goalie. Maybe he'll be high playing this game.
- 43:17Speaker 1: I don't know. But the spot for New Jersey I
- 43:20Speaker 1: think is bad. I think this is a sandwich spot. Uh,
- 43:23Speaker 1: the first time this year that we get a legitimate
- 43:25Speaker 1: sandwich spot. They started out the season playing Carolina and
- 43:28Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, both on the road. Huge I mean huge games. Man.
- 43:32Speaker 1: Those are both really good teams. Uh. They actually beat
- 43:35Speaker 1: Tampa Bay last time out as an underdog, so they
- 43:37Speaker 1: pulled off a nice upset in that one. A mark
- 43:40Speaker 1: Strom played both games too, So the Devils are playing
- 43:43Speaker 1: every other day, three games on the road, all different cities.
- 43:46Speaker 1: Now they're having to go up from the southeast all
- 43:48Speaker 1: the way up to Columbus mark Strom not getting a
- 43:51Speaker 1: day off, although maybe they'll decide because I don't think
- 43:53Speaker 1: they've decided on him yet, so maybe it's possible. Yeah,
- 43:56Speaker 1: it's unconfirmed, but I think he will play. I don't
- 44:00Speaker 1: know what these numbers next to the goalies mean, by
- 44:03Speaker 1: the way, I think that's the like the percentage that
- 44:09Speaker 1: might be the percentage, like what the hell of them?
- 44:13Speaker 1: The confidence level that they have that that goalie is
- 44:16Speaker 1: actually going to start, I think so, I don't know.
- 44:19Speaker 1: So it actually could be the backup for Columbus in
- 44:21Speaker 1: this one too, but I don't think. I don't think
- 44:23Speaker 1: either of Columbus's goalies are good, so I don't think
- 44:25Speaker 1: it really matters which goalie Columbus has out there, which
- 44:28Speaker 1: is something I talked about last year. I played Columbus
- 44:30Speaker 1: as an underdog a decent amount last year and they
- 44:33Speaker 1: did okay for us. But yeah, I don't like the spot.
- 44:36Speaker 1: And then to make it a sandwich spot. Of course,
- 44:38Speaker 1: who does New Jersey have next? Oh? Yeah, they have
- 44:40Speaker 1: to play. They have to play Florida, the Stanley Cup
- 44:43Speaker 1: champions last two years, and they have to play Edmonton
- 44:46Speaker 1: after that, the Stanley Cup runner up the last two years.
- 44:48Speaker 1: So this game is surrounded by much, much bigger games,
- 44:52Speaker 1: so I think it's a bad setup here. And for Columbus,
- 44:55Speaker 1: it's their home opener, so I think Columbus is gonna
- 44:57Speaker 1: be up for this game. Man, it's gonna be a
- 44:59Speaker 1: little bit. Columbus started off the season bad performance against
- 45:05Speaker 1: Nashville National, not a very good team. Columbus was actually
- 45:08Speaker 1: getting the professional money in that game and they lost.
- 45:10Speaker 1: But they turned it around and won in a nice
- 45:13Speaker 1: win against Minnesota. But the public I think still doesn't
- 45:15Speaker 1: want anything to do with Columbus here, even though they
- 45:18Speaker 1: just beat Minnesota with seven goals against them. The public
- 45:21Speaker 1: is still just taking New Jersey right now. I think
- 45:23Speaker 1: the public is looking at how New Jersey's had the
- 45:26Speaker 1: more difficult schedules so far, and while that is true,
- 45:29Speaker 1: I think that's gonna hamper them in this game. Even
- 45:31Speaker 1: though they're stepping down in class to base Columbus. I
- 45:33Speaker 1: think it's a spot where they may overlook Columbus at
- 45:36Speaker 1: Columbus is going to give you a good performance at
- 45:38Speaker 1: this one. I think the fact that they got the win,
- 45:41Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna be a letdown spot. The
- 45:42Speaker 1: fact they had a nice underdog road win there. I
- 45:45Speaker 1: think it's gonna be more the case that Columbus is
- 45:47Speaker 1: gonna have momentum here. And yes, I know they're returning
- 45:50Speaker 1: home from a road trip, but it's not a long
- 45:52Speaker 1: road trip. It's the first road trip of the season,
- 45:54Speaker 1: so I don't think it counts because during the season,
- 45:56Speaker 1: of course, I always talk about returning home from a
- 45:58Speaker 1: road trip is a bad spot players that get distracted
- 46:01Speaker 1: as they have to return a home life. But when
- 46:04Speaker 1: you start the season on the road and you only
- 46:06Speaker 1: have two road games, then you come back home, you
- 46:08Speaker 1: haven't been away from home that long, and this is
- 46:10Speaker 1: your home opener against a good team, and you're gonna
- 46:12Speaker 1: show up focus. So we'll go with Columbus in that one.
- 46:15Speaker 1: And those are the plays for the day. Man the
- 46:20Speaker 1: Buffalo wild Wings waitress, Yeah, win both of your plays
- 46:24Speaker 1: and then maybe you'll get a blowjob. I gave my
- 46:28Speaker 1: number to a Buffalo Wild Wings waitress once and she
- 46:31Speaker 1: never called me man. What the fuck she was? She
- 46:33Speaker 1: was definitely flirting with me. Maybe she was flirting with
- 46:37Speaker 1: both me and my friend. I don't know, but yeah,
- 46:41Speaker 1: my friend is married though, so I'm like, sorry, lady,
- 46:43Speaker 1: you're it's gonna be me if you're if you're gonna
- 46:46Speaker 1: have to, uh pick one of us, there is no choice.
- 46:49Speaker 1: Uh but no, she I don't know. I think she
- 46:52Speaker 1: liked I think she liked me. But and it was
- 46:54Speaker 1: not the same time that I had the uh the
- 46:56Speaker 1: numb cock after the Blaze and Wings. It was a
- 46:58Speaker 1: different time where I also did the Blaze and Wings challenge.
- 47:02Speaker 1: Because I basically just do it every time I go.
- 47:04Speaker 1: I can't even like actually do it in the time
- 47:06Speaker 1: within the time limit anymore. Man. I think they just
- 47:09Speaker 1: made it hotter and hotter, and it's just ridiculous. Now
- 47:11Speaker 1: you have to eat twelve wings in six minutes. It's
- 47:14Speaker 1: just a little bit crazy time limit. Like I could
- 47:16Speaker 1: definitely eat twelve in probably about twenty minutes, but doing
- 47:22Speaker 1: it in six minutes is just crazy at this point.
- 47:24Speaker 1: I did it in the past. I was able to
- 47:26Speaker 1: do it, and I swear it was not as hot
- 47:28Speaker 1: back when I did it, like I don't know, like
- 47:31Speaker 1: a decade ago or something. Hand jobs with the blazing sauce, Well,
- 47:37Speaker 1: that's not good because then neither of you will feel it.
- 47:40Speaker 1: So what's that? That's like the double Stranger it's it's
- 47:43Speaker 1: like you're watching a chick give it, do it a
- 47:45Speaker 1: hand job? Who wants that? Who watches a hand job?
- 47:49Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe sometimes it could be hot. I
- 47:51Speaker 1: don't know. Let's go to let's go to the end.
- 47:54Speaker 1: Let's go to the NFL. All right, let's go to
- 47:58Speaker 1: the NFL. Here we have two Monday Night games, which
- 48:02Speaker 1: I hate. Again. I think that it's bad because I
- 48:05Speaker 1: think one of the things about Monday Night is it's
- 48:07Speaker 1: it's like a premier game and only two teams a
- 48:10Speaker 1: week get to play in that Monday Night game, and
- 48:12Speaker 1: it's a big deal. So the fact that you have
- 48:14Speaker 1: two now makes it less of a big deal. So
- 48:16Speaker 1: I fucking hate that. Shit makes it kind of weird
- 48:19Speaker 1: to handicap it because it's like, do you have to
- 48:21Speaker 1: handicap it? Still is, Yes, this is this huge Monday
- 48:24Speaker 1: Night game and the home team's gonna be really excited
- 48:26Speaker 1: for it. Maybe maybe it doesn't change the handicap that much,
- 48:30Speaker 1: but I don't know. Man, the first game up at
- 48:32Speaker 1: seven to fifteen pm, because it worse. These two games
- 48:34Speaker 1: are competing with each other too, And my guess is
- 48:37Speaker 1: that the first game it's gonna be the one that
- 48:41Speaker 1: people are gonna watch Buffalo and Atlanta. I don't think
- 48:43Speaker 1: people are gonna watch Chicago Washington. Man, I'm sorry. Even
- 48:47Speaker 1: though it's two rookie qbs. At least these games, at
- 48:49Speaker 1: least these are better than last week when last week
- 48:51Speaker 1: we had I think last week was Jets and Dolphins
- 48:56Speaker 1: And was that last week or no, that was two
- 48:58Speaker 1: weeks ago Jets doll Dolphins. And then we had Cincinnati
- 49:03Speaker 1: with no Joe Barrow against Denver. That was a horrific
- 49:06Speaker 1: Monday night lineup. Man, last week, I forget what the
- 49:09Speaker 1: what the games were. Maybe there was only one last week.
- 49:11Speaker 1: I don't even remember. Buffalo Atlanta is actually at least
- 49:14Speaker 1: a good game. The public is coming in on Buffalo.
- 49:17Speaker 1: I think the public is just not dissuaded by the
- 49:20Speaker 1: fact that Buffalo lost a game. There's still four and one.
- 49:23Speaker 1: The public is looking at what New England's doing right now.
- 49:25Speaker 1: I thinking New England is good, So they're not gonna
- 49:28Speaker 1: dock Buffalo for that loss very much. They're gonna expect
- 49:30Speaker 1: Buffalo to bounce back as a four and one team
- 49:33Speaker 1: against a two and two Falcon team. Bill's eighty percent
- 49:37Speaker 1: of tickets only seventy eight percent of the cash. But yeah,
- 49:40Speaker 1: so the bills are public less of the money on them,
- 49:42Speaker 1: and the spread is moving against them down from five.
- 49:45Speaker 1: It's gone through the four and out of three and
- 49:47Speaker 1: a half. So if you like the Falcons, you can
- 49:50Speaker 1: still take the three and a half. I think that's
- 49:51Speaker 1: where the cutoff would be there. You want to at
- 49:53Speaker 1: least get that key number three and a half, get
- 49:55Speaker 1: the hook on that. Probably you can still get a
- 49:58Speaker 1: four out there if you like the Falcons, and I
- 50:00Speaker 1: would lean that way. I lean to the Falcons in
- 50:02Speaker 1: this one. It's a fairly high total at fifty, but
- 50:05Speaker 1: the money's kind of coming in on the under eighty
- 50:07Speaker 1: one percent of tickets, only sixty seven percent of the
- 50:09Speaker 1: cash on the over. I wouldn't want to risk it
- 50:12Speaker 1: on an under in this game, though, I mean, I
- 50:13Speaker 1: don't really know how much we could trust either defense.
- 50:17Speaker 1: I think Atlanta does have the better defense, though, so
- 50:19Speaker 1: I think you're getting the better defense getting points with
- 50:21Speaker 1: the Falcons a buffalo. I think the spot is a
- 50:25Speaker 1: little bit weird because they are coming off that loss.
- 50:27Speaker 1: It was their first loss of the season, and I
- 50:29Speaker 1: think people are kind of considering that to be a
- 50:31Speaker 1: big game at this point, so it's a little bit tricky,
- 50:34Speaker 1: and now they have to go on the road. And
- 50:35Speaker 1: as I pointed out on my NFL show, this is
- 50:39Speaker 1: the first time Buffalo is leaving the state of New York.
- 50:42Speaker 1: They've only played one road game this season, it was
- 50:44Speaker 1: at the Jets, So this is a difficult spot for Buffalo.
- 50:48Speaker 1: Man coming up that big Sunday night game, first loss
- 50:52Speaker 1: of the season can sometimes also hang you over because
- 50:54Speaker 1: you're not really used to it. They're not used to
- 50:56Speaker 1: this travel spot. I'm almost talking myself into a play
- 50:59Speaker 1: on Atlanta. Man, I don't think I quite want to
- 51:01Speaker 1: do it. But and Lanta also has some advantage this
- 51:04Speaker 1: year as well, because they're even though Buffalo before I
- 51:09Speaker 1: get off of Buffalo, before I get Buffalo off, Buffalo
- 51:12Speaker 1: is also coming up. They are coming off a game
- 51:14Speaker 1: where they lost as a big favorite, though, so that's
- 51:16Speaker 1: one thing that might actually keep Buffalo focus is the
- 51:20Speaker 1: fact that they were an eight point favorite in that game.
- 51:22Speaker 1: They basically don't lose at home, so everybody expected Buffalo
- 51:25Speaker 1: to win that game and they got upset, So that
- 51:28Speaker 1: could focus Buffalo coming into this game. So that's kind
- 51:30Speaker 1: of the one hesitation that I really have with fading
- 51:33Speaker 1: Buffalo here. Well, maybe there are two Atlanta's coming out
- 51:36Speaker 1: of a bye. So Atlanta does have an extra week
- 51:39Speaker 1: to prepare for this, which is good for them. But
- 51:42Speaker 1: they went into the buy on a good note. They
- 51:43Speaker 1: beat Washington, they beat Jade and Daniels, So I talk
- 51:46Speaker 1: about that when a team goes into the bye on
- 51:48Speaker 1: a good note, sometimes the buye does not help you
- 51:52Speaker 1: as much because it's like, well, you don't have anything
- 51:53Speaker 1: to fix because you're really good going into the buy.
- 51:56Speaker 1: So I could see that going either way. But they
- 51:58Speaker 1: do have an extra week of extra week where the
- 52:01Speaker 1: rest over Buffalo, and Buffalo has a little bit less
- 52:03Speaker 1: because they had to play Sunday night last week. Well
- 52:07Speaker 1: of course they do at least get the you know,
- 52:10Speaker 1: the day because they get to play a Monday this
- 52:12Speaker 1: time instead of Sunday. But yeah, Atlanta obviously has more
- 52:16Speaker 1: rest here. I think it will be more of an
- 52:18Speaker 1: advantage of a disadvantage for Atlanta in this one. Penix
- 52:23Speaker 1: is probably gonna be pumped up for this because this
- 52:25Speaker 1: is his first Monday night game and he played pretty
- 52:28Speaker 1: well against Washington that last time. And I know Penix
- 52:31Speaker 1: hasn't really been good on the road so far, but
- 52:33Speaker 1: this is a home game tonight. He's been good at home,
- 52:36Speaker 1: so Pennix is good at home. He's played a primetime
- 52:39Speaker 1: game before, because I remember losing a bet on it
- 52:42Speaker 1: with Atlanta last year against Washington plus four and it
- 52:45Speaker 1: went into overtime and they didn't cover. That was great,
- 52:49Speaker 1: So Penix, I don't think he's gonna be thrown off
- 52:52Speaker 1: by the spotlight of it being Monday night. And he
- 52:54Speaker 1: played Sunday night this year or two against Minnesota in
- 52:57Speaker 1: the College Football Championship remas against JJ McCarthy, so he
- 53:02Speaker 1: didn't do great in the game, but the team won that.
- 53:05Speaker 1: I'm the team had a dominant performance in the game.
- 53:07Speaker 1: They ran the ball a lot, so it was still
- 53:10Speaker 1: a good game for them. And that's the other thing.
- 53:12Speaker 1: Penix doesn't have to showlder the load here because Atlanta
- 53:15Speaker 1: has one of the best running backs in football with
- 53:17Speaker 1: Bijon Robinson, so they can use him man and they
- 53:21Speaker 1: can use him to keep Buffalo's offense off the field too.
- 53:24Speaker 1: So these teams that can run the football a lot
- 53:26Speaker 1: can give Buffalo some problems because they can extend possessions
- 53:30Speaker 1: and drives and they can kind of keep the football
- 53:32Speaker 1: away from Buffalo. So I think Atlanta will be able
- 53:34Speaker 1: to do that here. Atlanta's got a talented offense man,
- 53:38Speaker 1: so they can. They could actually even probably somewhat be
- 53:42Speaker 1: able to score with Buffalo too. I mean, I'm not
- 53:43Speaker 1: saying they want this to be a shootout. I don't
- 53:45Speaker 1: think they do, but they can at least I think
- 53:47Speaker 1: kind of keep pace with Buffalo for all those reasons combined.
- 53:52Speaker 1: So I think Atlanta is the right side in that game.
- 53:54Speaker 1: Plus the points, that would be the only way I
- 53:56Speaker 1: would play that game. I think it's the strongest way
- 53:58Speaker 1: to look at the NFL board tonight. And then the
- 54:01Speaker 1: last game is Bears and Redskins at eight fifteen PM
- 54:06Speaker 1: on ABC eight to fifteen Eastern. The Redskins of the
- 54:10Speaker 1: public side sixty five percent tickets, only sixty two percent
- 54:13Speaker 1: of the cash, and them they're up from a five
- 54:14Speaker 1: point favorite to a five and a half point favorite.
- 54:18Speaker 1: I think the line was at four and a half
- 54:20Speaker 1: at one point during the week, but now it's moved
- 54:21Speaker 1: up a little bit. I would lean to the Bears
- 54:24Speaker 1: in this game, though, Washington coming off kind of a
- 54:28Speaker 1: misleading result where they beat the Chargers. If you saw
- 54:31Speaker 1: what happen in this game, the Chargers are up ten
- 54:33Speaker 1: and not thinking, and then the Chargers are about to
- 54:34Speaker 1: go in to make it seventeen and nothing, and they
- 54:37Speaker 1: fumble the football. I think it was a fumble deep
- 54:40Speaker 1: in Washington territory. And then the Chargers never scored again,
- 54:43Speaker 1: and that play completely shifted the momentum of the game.
- 54:47Speaker 1: So I don't know about this win. For I thought
- 54:49Speaker 1: the Chargers are gonna win this game. Yeah, Washington did
- 54:51Speaker 1: wind up out gaining them, but that turnover really kind
- 54:54Speaker 1: of flipped the game on its head. So I don't know.
- 54:57Speaker 1: So Washington's coming off of that, they're coming up with
- 54:58Speaker 1: a pretty good performance. They do have Dallas up next,
- 55:02Speaker 1: which is a big game. They have to play Dallas
- 55:04Speaker 1: on Sunday, so that's a big divisional game. Of Dallas
- 55:08Speaker 1: is not playing horrible though, I know the loss of
- 55:10Speaker 1: the Panthers yesterday, but Washington does have that, and then
- 55:13Speaker 1: they have Kansas City up after this four road games though.
- 55:17Speaker 1: This is their only home game in a stretch of
- 55:18Speaker 1: four road games, so sometimes you do like focus when
- 55:22Speaker 1: it's your only home game because it's like you got
- 55:24Speaker 1: to get this one, but I think it could be
- 55:26Speaker 1: a look ahead spot to Dallas Man. So I don't
- 55:28Speaker 1: exactly love Washington in this spot here. And it is
- 55:32Speaker 1: revenge for Chicago because everybody kind of remembers this is
- 55:35Speaker 1: the Williams versus Daniels battle. The two quarterbacks were the
- 55:39Speaker 1: highly drafted quarterbacks last year, and Jayden Daniels is one
- 55:42Speaker 1: to zero in the Daniels Versus Williams series. And it
- 55:47Speaker 1: was because of a game winning hail Mary, which I
- 55:50Speaker 1: was happy about because that was the play that I
- 55:52Speaker 1: gave on on the show with Washington. We got the
- 55:54Speaker 1: win on that one. Washington was winning the game for
- 55:56Speaker 1: most of it and then they fell behind late and
- 55:59Speaker 1: they had to win with a Mary. And the reason
- 56:01Speaker 1: why they won was because Chicago. It was at Washington'
- 56:05Speaker 1: pretty sure. I talked about this on my NFL show.
- 56:07Speaker 1: Chicago's defender was taunting the crowd and didn't pay attention
- 56:11Speaker 1: to the play because he thought the game was over, Like,
- 56:14Speaker 1: there's no way they're gonna complete like a fifty yard
- 56:17Speaker 1: hail mary here, And that's exactly what they did, catching
- 56:21Speaker 1: that defender, you know, taunting, catching him taunting the crowd
- 56:25Speaker 1: and It's also stupid for him to be taunting because
- 56:28Speaker 1: the refs could throw a flag on that for him
- 56:30Speaker 1: taunting too, so it's even more stupid. But yeah, so
- 56:33Speaker 1: Jane Daniels had the ridiculous game winning Hail Mary. I
- 56:36Speaker 1: do think Chicago will remember that that was a memorable game,
- 56:40Speaker 1: so I think Williams and Chicago they will want to
- 56:43Speaker 1: even the score here. So I do think there is
- 56:44Speaker 1: a little bit extra motivation for Chicago here, and Chicago's
- 56:48Speaker 1: coming out of a bye, so they did have the
- 56:50Speaker 1: week off to prepare for this. My only issue is
- 56:52Speaker 1: that they did win two straight games going into the buy,
- 56:55Speaker 1: so they went into the buy on a good note.
- 56:57Speaker 1: So then it's like, well, what do you fix going
- 56:58Speaker 1: into that buy? Maybe there is something to fix though,
- 57:02Speaker 1: because they actually played really badly in that game against
- 57:04Speaker 1: the Raiders. The Raiders absolutely should have won that game.
- 57:07Speaker 1: The Raiders had the lead all game, They outstated the
- 57:10Speaker 1: Bears in that game pretty in pretty dominant fashion, to
- 57:14Speaker 1: be honest, and then the Bears won on a block
- 57:16Speaker 1: field goal at the end of the game. Just really
- 57:18Speaker 1: really ridiculous. So they shouldn't have won that game. So
- 57:21Speaker 1: maybe that does mean they will work on some things
- 57:23Speaker 1: during the by I do think they're gonna be up
- 57:25Speaker 1: for this game. They don't have a big game up next.
- 57:27Speaker 1: They just played New Orleans, so I think the Bears
- 57:30Speaker 1: do set up to be in the better spot here.
- 57:32Speaker 1: The Bears have really not gotten their rushing attack going though.
- 57:36Speaker 1: Odoonsea has been really really good for them, really crazy
- 57:39Speaker 1: as a receiver for them. Williams, you know, as him
- 57:43Speaker 1: as a target, but I still don't think Williams is
- 57:45Speaker 1: that good obviously. I think Daniels is the better of
- 57:48Speaker 1: these two quarterbacks, though I think Daniels has taking a
- 57:50Speaker 1: little bit of a step back this year. I think
- 57:51Speaker 1: he over before him last year because the league didn't
- 57:55Speaker 1: know what to expect out of this offense. And now
- 57:56Speaker 1: that they know what the Washington is going to do,
- 58:00Speaker 1: the league and kind of prepare for it more easily.
- 58:04Speaker 1: This Chicago office is actually a little bit more difficult
- 58:07Speaker 1: to prepare for this year now because people don't know
- 58:11Speaker 1: what they're really gonna do. Although we've seen what they're
- 58:12Speaker 1: doing now four weeks in, but with Ben Johnson as
- 58:15Speaker 1: the new head coach there, they've changed their schemes a bit,
- 58:18Speaker 1: so they're doing some different things here now, so maybe
- 58:21Speaker 1: a little bit harder to prepare for Chicago right now.
- 58:24Speaker 1: Washington's defense is not exactly good. I think you could
- 58:28Speaker 1: argue the Bears have the better defense here. I think
- 58:30Speaker 1: they probably do, although I know either defense has been
- 58:32Speaker 1: particularly good so far. The money is coming in on
- 58:35Speaker 1: the under in this one, too, sixty nine percent of
- 58:36Speaker 1: tickets on the over, fifty eight percent of couch on
- 58:38Speaker 1: the under. Totals drop from fifty and a half to
- 58:41Speaker 1: forty nine and a half. Money's seeming to come in
- 58:44Speaker 1: the under in this one, which does mean that the
- 58:46Speaker 1: underdog is usually the way you want to look if
- 58:48Speaker 1: it's gonna be a little bit of a lower scoring game,
- 58:50Speaker 1: although it's not really a low total of forty nine
- 58:52Speaker 1: and a half, but the money is kind of coming
- 58:54Speaker 1: in the under in that one. I could see people
- 58:57Speaker 1: thinking this is going to be an over. I mean,
- 59:00Speaker 1: you got Williams versus Daniels. Maybe the public doesn't love
- 59:04Speaker 1: Williams that much, but two teams that look like they
- 59:06Speaker 1: could score basically seems like it would be kind of
- 59:09Speaker 1: an over. And maybe it actually wind up won't being
- 59:11Speaker 1: it over because I do think that you're gonna see
- 59:13Speaker 1: both teams establish the run. Man, Washington's gonna be running
- 59:16Speaker 1: the football, I believe, I mean the Acrossky merrit there. Now,
- 59:20Speaker 1: they've been doing pretty well running the football. The Bears
- 59:23Speaker 1: haven't really been able to get the the rushing attack going,
- 59:27Speaker 1: but they might be able to do something against Washington
- 59:29Speaker 1: because Washington's deepfense isn't very good. Uh So we'll see
- 59:33Speaker 1: what happens. Man. Although the Bears do throw the ball
- 59:35Speaker 1: more so we will see. That's gonna do it. Man,
- 59:41Speaker 1: tell the waitress that I'm the married when you're that.
- 59:43Speaker 1: Maybe that was my mistake. I don't think I met.
- 59:45Speaker 1: I don't think I mentioned that my friend was married, though,
- 59:47Speaker 1: I don't think I. I don't think I said it
- 59:48Speaker 1: at all. But that was what was like going through
- 59:50Speaker 1: my mind, Like if she called my friend, like, my
- 59:53Speaker 1: friend is a solid dude, Like he's not gonna he's
- 59:56Speaker 1: not gonna cheat on his wife. So if she yeah,
- 59:59Speaker 1: if she'd called him or whatever, my friend would have
- 1:00:01Speaker 1: turned her down. All right. That was it, man, So
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: the best bet state one more time in Toronto Blue
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: Jays in the first five innings on the money line NHL,
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: we gotta split bet half on the Tampa Bay Lightning,
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: half on the puck line, half on the money line,
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: and the Columbus b JS, the blue Jackets blow jackets.
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: Plus that's the blowjacket is the trench coat that you're
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: naked under, and that you can open it up and
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: get the blowjob more easily. The blow job just Trump
- 1:00:33Speaker 1: ever say that. I almost went into Trump mode to say, yeah,
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: Stirmy Daniels, she gives the best blow jobs that I've
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: ever had. Tremendous blowjobs from Sturmy Daniels, folks. I tried
- 1:00:46Speaker 1: to pay her to keep quiet, and instead I just
- 1:00:50Speaker 1: made her blow me instead, and that kept her quiet.
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying. All Right, thank you sir.
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: Hopefully it was all right. Hopefully my show is at
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: least somewhat funny. But yeah, that's gonna do it. Man,
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: Learn it on Twitter, and learn it on on Instagram.
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: Better off dead here, I gotta change the name of
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: the fucking show man. I gotta think of a better name.
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: Then I'm gonna any graphics and shit for it. Better
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: off dead, Like, subscribe to the channel, man, tell people
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: about it. Let's get this thing pumped up. Let's monetize
- 1:01:19Speaker 1: this thing man, and then you guys could super chat
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: me with it because I do so many lives people,
- 1:01:23Speaker 1: it'll be cool. Let's make it more interactive. People could
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: super chat, ask me shit, you know whatever. We're on
- 1:01:30Speaker 1: audio as well, like I mean, review and listen over
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: on audio and that helps me as well on Spotify
- 1:01:35Speaker 1: and Apple covering in you because my YUK channel on YouTube,
- 1:01:38Speaker 1: I have to get up my most recent one on YouTube.
- 1:01:41Speaker 1: Still did the Lost Profits cover just because I had
- 1:01:46Speaker 1: to do it for the timing of it. But I'm
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: gonna be back to Halloween themed music for the rest
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: of the month. We'll do a few more October covers,
- 1:01:54Speaker 1: probably probably ones that I've already done before though, but
- 1:01:57Speaker 1: don't have up on the YouTube and whatever. I'll just
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: reduce something of them. And yeah, Patreon dot com slash
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: learn to toad and you can get a Spotify feed,
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: although it is lagging behind. I apologize, folks. I gotta
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: get more bonus content. Figure out what to do with
- 1:02:13Speaker 1: the Patreon man, But it's Patreon dot com, slash learn
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: to toad and the highest level you do get prioritize requests.
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: I need to get subscriptions on Twitter, man, I'm like
- 1:02:24Speaker 1: banned from it basically because I got rejected the first time,
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: and now the submission just fails on an error every time.
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: So if somebody has any connection at Twitter, see if
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: they can figure out what's going on with that, Like
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: it's it's a bug, it's some issue on their end.
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: Like I should be allowed to get subscriptions. There are
- 1:02:41Speaker 1: people way worse than I am on Twitter who get subscriptions.
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: So I want to be able to do. Like I
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: pay for Twitter, I should be able to use their
- 1:02:47Speaker 1: monetization program. I mean, it's bullshit, and premium stop responding
- 1:02:52Speaker 1: to me. It's absolute fucking bullshit, absolutely terrible, Like you
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: pay for a product and you get no fucking support
- 1:02:59Speaker 1: anyway that's gonna do it. And if it was a
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: free market, the free market would speak, but but it's
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: not really. The government has infiltrated Twitter. And like Twitter
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: is the ship posting platform, that's the place where everybody is,
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: it's not that you can really do about it. And
- 1:03:15Speaker 1: you know that the government is in. I don't want to,
- 1:03:18Speaker 1: you know, you get this all political and get nuked
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: from Twitter. But the government is definitely in. Like Elon's
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: year and stuff, we know this like Zuckerberg admitted that
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: it was happening with Facebook during the COVID years and whatever.
- 1:03:29Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's happening. The government is in the ears
- 1:03:32Speaker 1: of all these people that run these use social media platforms,
- 1:03:35Speaker 1: telling them you have to do this this way, you
- 1:03:37Speaker 1: have to censor this speech and whatever. It's bullshit. That's
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: gonna do it. Learned to tow it everywhere or whatever. Yeah, exactly,
- 1:03:48Speaker 1: that's the only Yeah, the only law death, death and
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: taxes and zog. Yeah, that's it. That's gonna do it. Man,
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: Peace out. Let's not get this channel nuked or anything, hopefully,
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: because I want to keep talking sports. Piece out for now.
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: I'll be back tomorrow morning with whatever the hell's happening
- 1:04:06Speaker 1: on Tuesday. It's probably a light card tomorrow though. Actually
- 1:04:09Speaker 1: I think we have Tuesday football on that. I think
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: mac maction is starting tomorrow. I'm pretty sure because I
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: saw last week starting on Wednesday. It was like today's
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: the start of like months and months of you know,
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: foot of or like weeks at least of football where
- 1:04:25Speaker 1: there's no there's no day without football for the next
- 1:04:28Speaker 1: like fifty days or something or forty something days. Whatever.
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: It is, so I do think the Tuesday Maction starts tomorrow,
- 1:04:34Speaker 1: so we'll have some great Mac games to analyze tomorrow. Though,
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: when once that stuff starts happening, I actually am be
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: able to like kind of isolate those games and look
- 1:04:42Speaker 1: at look at them and focus on the more. So
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: I tend to have more Mac plays during that stretch
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: of time. But we'll see that's gonna do it. Peace,