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Feb 05 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report for the February 2026. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Matt Bennett. He's at agmarket.net.
• 0:14
  I'll bring you up to speed on 45z and the regulations coming out of Washington DC reaction from the corn growers, the fuels associations, and many others. And then we'll turn our attention as we wrap up our time to the weather forecast. Mike Tenure from T Storm Weather will be here on this Thursday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the Farming World online on demand at willag.org, today you can purchase your tickets for the upcoming All Day Ag Outlook, the thirty sixth annual event at the Beep House in Covington, Indiana. It's extraordinary.
• 0:55
  Don't miss it this year. Willag.org for details and to purchase your tickets.
• 1:00
  announcer: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
• 1:06
  Todd Gleason: March corn for the day settled at $4.35. That was up five and a half. The May 6 higher at $4.43, and new crop December settled it up three and three quarters at $4.61. March soybeans, $11.12 and a quarter, 20¢ higher. The May 1126, up 21 and a quarter.
• 1:23
  November beans at $10.98 and a half, up 11¢ for the day. The bean meal, $7 higher. Bean oil, a penny lower. Wheat futures, soft red, up eight and a half. Settlement price there at $5.35 and a quarter in the March, and the hard red March at $5.38 and a half, up 8 and a quarter cents.
• 1:42
  Live cattle futures, $6.20 lower. The feeders were off $6 even, and lean hogs were down 7 and a half cents, that 400 pounds on this Thursday afternoon. Matt Bennett from agmarket.net now joins us to take a look at what happened in the marketplace fresh off a big meeting that you and the AgMarket team hosted in Nashville first. Did you get it right in Nashville last week by comparison to this week?
• 2:11
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, it was a it was a good weekend. We had we had a lot of fun, of course, and then, you know, pretty informational meeting. Mean, it's clearly the last couple three years been rough. I mean, there's no doubt '26 looks like a challenge as well.
• 2:25
  But, we just encourage growers, you know, not to lock in losses, you know, eight months ahead of harvest, you know, and, try to give this a little time to play out. Not real aggressive on doing anything, which looks good today, you know, a few days later. But at the same time, you know, we're still in a position that's challenging for most growers. It's nice to see some green on the screen here a couple days in a row. I think, you know, there's a lot of different ways to look at why we're seeing that.
• 2:55
  But, by all means, it gives us an opportunity to see better price action, you know, than what we've seen for quite some time.
• 3:01
  Todd Gleason: So was this last couple of days all about, the relationship between president Trump and Xi and the possibilities?
• 3:09
  Matt Bennett: Yeah. I mean, there are a lot of it, and I think that's what kinda jump started. Because, you know, if you were watching the screen like I typically am doing, you know, there's no doubt that this thing just took off like a rocket ship, there on Wednesday morning after the the tweet or through social or whatever it was, the post came out, you know, that said that they had talked. And, of course, soybeans is one of the things mentioned that they might go ahead and buy 20,000,000 tons instead of 12, you know, and then continue to buy beans, these coming three years, twenty five apiece. And so, that, clearly is positive as far as looking at The US balance sheet.
• 3:44
  It just it changes absolutely nothing in the world, first of all. And second of all, the tweet stated that, you know, this is something that they might do. I mean, it's not like we have a formal agreement or a a written agreement. What we've got is, you know, quite frankly, just a social media post. And so, you know, we've been encouraging growers, you know, if you're in a position, especially like on old crop soybeans, you know, we've just been handed a beautiful gift here, over the last couple days, giving people a chance to sell back over basis to board $11.
• 4:16
  You know? And clearly, you know, it's a better basis situation than what we've had, you know, back in the fall, for instance. And so you look at new crop as well. I mean, you know, you've got new crop soybeans up here in this $11 range, and that's a better price action than we've seen in a long time. So we certainly think that it could come and go just as quickly.
• 4:38
  And so we gotta be a little bit cautious as to get too bullish on an up move here.
• 4:42
  Todd Gleason: Are you thinking that they should get started on new crop sales then?
• 4:46
  Matt Bennett: I think that, legging into some stuff makes sense to me. Like, for instance, I look at, for instance, December corn. You know, you close it above $4.60. You know, if a guy was the the step in there and truly hedge, you know, some four sixty corn, our thought process is, you know, you carried in a million and a half or a billion and a half bushels this last year, and your your, you know, your range, for most of the fall for December carry, you know, is running 30 to 36¢. We've got to think with a two plus carry this year that, that should be, you know, every bit of what it was last year unless you just have a massive crop failure.
• 5:21
  And so, you know, I'm thinking if you hedge some corn off at $4.60, on your bin bushels, you know, you could roll that out to July at some point at maybe, $4.90, $4.95. And so, you know, if that's the case, all you've got left to set is basis. And that might look awful good, you know, here, down the road. Now, again, I wanna keep some flex, you know, in in in my program. So, I don't wanna get super carried away.
• 5:44
  But by all means, some of our bin bushels, I think we need to start looking at, you know, how I how might we be able to work our way into a price action level that we can live with.
• 5:53
  Todd Gleason: How about for soybean, generally going across the scale?
• 5:57
  Matt Bennett: Beans at $11 work for a lot of people. They don't work for everyone, though, Todd. And I think that that's where it gets a little sticky, you know, is, can $11 work for you? If they're going across the scale next fall, you know, you've gotta assume that, prices are gonna be, oh, I don't know, especially in our part of the world, know, maybe 50¢ lower than that, 30¢ lower than that, depending on when you haul them in and what kind of basis you can latch on to. So I'm okay with a person stepping in if it makes sense for their operation.
• 6:29
  I would never argue with that. But for those that it doesn't necessarily work, I think if you really wanna try to get some protection on, you know, we've had some guys step in and do, you know, like a three way strategy where you're locking in $11 floor versus maybe $10 or even something below that, you know, and then giving yourself a chance to participate up to $12. Because we feel like, you know, there could be reason to believe that you could have an opportunity maybe to sell a little higher than what we've got today at some point. You know, it is awful early in the year once again. So, yeah, I know that bearish, fundamentals exist as far as the world's concerned.
• 7:04
  You know, but this US balance sheet could be pretty interesting moving forward. Domestic usage is fantastic. And so I've gotta think maybe there would be a little opportunity, but, that's why I don't wanna just, lock myself into something, you know, as far as a large percentage of bushels. But, by all means, getting started on hedging makes, some sense, especially with an up move.
• 7:23
  Todd Gleason: So there were some regulatory announcements related to 45 z this week. The marketplace didn't seem to get very excited about it. However, many in agriculture have cautiously looked at it, I suppose. Do you think it makes much of a difference either for corn and or soybean?
• 7:43
  Matt Bennett: Well, I think what it what it what it boiled down to, you know, is that essentially it was good news, but it wasn't anything we hadn't already heard. You know? And so it sounds to me like there's going to be a push, if you will, to continue to build out our renewables industry, particularly in the case of renewable diesel and soybean oil being used for renewable. And so I've gotta think that it's it's a good step in the right direction. You know, I I know a lot of people are still really frustrated with the lack of being able to roll out a year round e 15 type deal.
• 8:19
  But, you know, there's been a lot of talk that they're going to push something like that through. So I think from a renewable standpoint, we have to remember, we're going to continue, especially in the case of soybeans, you know, to lose our clout, if you will, globally as far as the export program goes. So we've got to make a really strong emphasis on domestic consumption. And so we've got to hope that we do commit domestic consumption on corn as well. You know, while we're exporting a lot this year, you know, we went three years in a row of South America exporting more corn than what we did.
• 8:53
  And quite frankly, the Black Sea region got perilously close to Ukraine actually exporting as much corn as what we were. So we've got to build out our domestic usage program on both corn and soybeans moving forward in my opinion.
• 9:07
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much, Matt. We'll talk with you again for commodity week today.
• 9:11
  Matt Bennett: Absolutely. Thank you.
• 9:12
  Todd Gleason: That's Matt Bennett. He's with agmarket.net. In today's agricultural news, we'll start with biofuels, which have secured a double win recently while other efforts to help struggling farmers remain unresolved. A Treasury Department 45 z clean fuel tax credit proposal and a major new trade deal could give farmers a big boost in the new crop year. And according to Iowa senator Chuck Grassley.
• 9:40
  Chuck Grassley: In the area of energy, I think it includes a lot of ethanol.
• 9:45
  Todd Gleason: And treasuries just released 45 z clean fuel tax credit, once finalized, will make it easier for farmers to claim a bigger credit. But the Renewable Fuels Association's Troy Bradenkamp says Washington must deliver much more even after a full throated presidential endorsement of one effort.
• 10:03
  Troy Bredenkamp: The year around e fifteen that absolutely has to get done by congress, the renewable volume obligations that need to be finalized for '26 and '27. All of these things added together would give a lot of certainty to a agricultural sector that is swimming in feedstock.
• 10:23
  Todd Gleason: And there's a farm bill that Politico reports house ag chair, Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania, wants to mark up later this month and says could be a vehicle of four year round e 15 and more farm aid. But senate majority leader John Thune out of South Dakota says a filibuster fight over a voter ID bill could stall that and, well, other bills.
• 10:43
  John Thune: The coin in the realm in the senate is floor time. There's a finite amount of it, and we have a lot of things we have to do. There's a housing bill that's awaiting action, hopefully, a market structure bill, possibly permitting reform, farm bill.
• 10:56
  Todd Gleason: And the senate faces another funding cliff in less than two weeks over homeland security, a fight that affects just not ICE, but FEMA, TSA, and the coast guard. But let's stay with biofuels for a moment and particularly the 45 z clean fuel tax credit rule that will make it easier for farmers to claim that credit. The RFA, the Renewable Fuels Association, as we've already reported, says the much awaited 45 z proposed rule will help provide some clarity and certainty that ethanol producers seek. Again, here's Troy Bradenkamp. He's the RFA's senior vice president of government and public affairs.
• 11:34
  Troy Bredenkamp: Well, the proposal appears to resolve some of the previous confusion around what constitutes a qualified sale and begins to integrate the important improvements to 45 z, such as the removal of indirect land use change emissions from the carbon intensity scoring framework.
• 11:51
  Todd Gleason: Which will effectively double the value of the 45 z tax credit for soy based biofuels and provide eligibility for other feedstocks like canola. But Bradencamp says more work remains.
• 12:02
  Troy Bredenkamp: A new revised version of the 45 z c f green model. And in addition, there's questions that remain to be resolved around, you know, the quantification of emissions related to the low carbon feedstock production at the farm level and the implementation of the foreign feedstock provisions.
• 12:21
  Todd Gleason: The American Soybean Association, meantime, urged the EPA to finalize its overdue renewable fuel standard and robust biofuels volumes. Together, ASA says the 45 z credit and robust RFS renewable volume obligations would ensure the federal government's biofuel policies support the farm economy and roll manufacturing. For its part, NCGA, the National Corn Growers Association, reacted positively to the 45Z proposal by the Treasury Department in saying this proposal is a step in the right direction and will allow corn growers to transition into and supply the aviation sector. And while the credit has been available since January 2025, producers and farmers have struggled to capitalize on it with only minimal guidance from the federal government. Now on that note, fuel retailers have expressed some concern about the 45 z guidelines.
• 13:17
  Groups representing fuel retailers across America expressed serious concerns with the section of 45 z clean fuels production credit. The associations say that 45 z is a giant step word for American biofuel policy. The organizations representing truck stops and travel plazas and America's leading fuel marketers and the National Association of Convenience Stores are urging Congress and the administration to support simpler biofuel policies that would quickly reinvigorate biodiesel consumption and higher ethanol blends while enhancing the economy and energy market security. They say the transition away from the biodiesel tax credit to the 45 z production credit instituted a catastrophic decline in biofuels consumption that hurts the economy, and the congress can fix it by bringing back the biodiesel tax credit. And that's a look at today's Magricultural News.
• 14:18
  Just a quick reminder about the Diversified Research Dudley Smith winter meeting that's coming up next week. University of Illinois Extension's Travis Matier is inviting farmers to Taylorville Tuesday, February, the attempt to explore a broadened Dudley Smith Farm winter meeting agenda. It'll cover beef cattle, cover crops, and new drainage water recycling research, says Mateer.
• 14:42
  Travis Meteer: It's one of those meetings that traditionally we have focused on beef cattle topics and predominantly grazing. But, if you look at the program this year, we've really diversified it a little bit. Now there's still that cattle, component, but we've got up updated research through the Dudley Smith initiative, research updates on cover crops and how fertility treatments impact water quality and nutrient loss, and then also drainage water recycling. And so those are some really cool projects that are going on at the Douglas Smith Research Farm. We also have, a producer panel later in the day that's gonna talk about soil health legacy.
• 15:23
  So we have a kind of wide array of topics to discuss this year. And so I think, again, if you're a row crop farmer and you're you're cover cropping, thinking about cover cropping, or you have a diversified farm with row crop and cattle, this this meeting is gonna touch on some topics that, should get you excited and I think give you a lot of good information when you leave that date.
• 15:45
  Todd Gleason: Again, that was U of I Extension's Travis Mateer. You may join Travis myself at the Dudley Smith Farm Winter Meeting. It kicks off at 9AM next Tuesday, February 10 in Taylorville. It wraps up during the noon hour with the meal. There is no registration fee.
• 16:01
  However, preregistration is required by today. You can either Google Dudley Smith Farm winter meeting or go to our website, willag.org, and look into the calendar of events for that event next week. Click on it. You'll find a link to get yourself registered. Don't wait.
• 16:19
  Do it right now. Speaking of meetings, don't forget to register for the All Day Ag Outlook while you're at our website, willag.org. It's Tuesday, March 3 at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana. We've got an absolutely fantastic day planned for you. Kind of the basics with the PharmDoc team all day long along with the folks that you hear regularly on air here like Matt Bennett.
• 16:43
  Registration cost is just $40. Don't wait. Do it today at willag.org. Look for the all day outlook meeting at the beef house in Covington, Indiana. Let's check-in now on a global growing regions with Mike Tanura.
• 16:59
  He's the president and CEO at T Storm Weather in Naperville, Illinois. It can be found online at tstorm.net. Hi, Mike. Thanks for being with us. I appreciate it today.
• 17:09
  Mike Tannura: Hey, Todd. Always great being here. Thanks for having me on.
• 17:11
  Todd Gleason: Let's start in the Southern Hemisphere with the South American crops. I suppose maybe we could start in Argentina and work our way northward.
• 17:18
  Mike Tannura: Yeah. That sounds great. The story Argentina is one of drought. About one third of the corn and soybean crops were much drier than normal over the last sixty days. And this didn't just start recently.
• 17:30
  It's been ongoing here for a while. There were supposed to be some nice rains this week, at least that's the way it looked five or six days ago, but that whole thing pretty much fizzled. We did see some thunderstorms over the last couple of days, but they weren't widespread and heavy, and that's what we needed to get out of this situation. It's not going to dry out for it's now going to dry out for the next couple of days, And that's going to lead us into next week. And we really need to see some rains next week and even beyond then just because of how extensive the dryness is.
• 18:00
  And it looks like we're going to get at least some for about half of the crop. The main storm track is going to align across Central And Northern Argentina, and that should lead to some decent thunderstorms starting Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and then continuing for a few days after that. Now as long as that happens, that should take away some of the dryness story in Argentina. But, Todd, we need to be a little bit cautious here because we've seen a couple of these rain chances that looked pretty good five to ten days out. And then once we got nearer, things tended to fall apart a little bit.
• 18:32
  In this particular case, we think the setup is a little better than it was a week ago simply because the jet stream is going to be in a nice location that even if it moves a little bit further north or south, we should still get some thunderstorms in some key areas. But overall, Tan, the story is that we do have this dryness in Argentina and we do need these rains to verify.
• 18:54
  Todd Gleason: And if you move further to the North in Southern Brazil and on into the primary growing regions of Mato Grosso in the Center West, do things differ very much?
• 19:05
  Mike Tannura: Well, it shifted there a little bit. Southern Brazil and into Paraguay have turned much drier over the last thirty days, and this is a little bit of a concern. In Southern Brazil, about 75% of expected soybean production was much drier than normal, and that adds up to almost half of the crop once you figure in some scattered areas to the north that are also experiencing some dryness. So they need rains there as well even though the crop is a little bit later along than in Argentina. Their rain chances are not very good for a while.
• 19:36
  We might see some storms on Saturday, but that's really about it for the next seven to ten days. And because of that, there is some concern over how this is all gonna play out. Rio Grande do Sul is where they plant a full season soybean variety, and that's the state that really would benefit from some of this rain. Plus also where the rain chances are pretty low again until about mid month. And so if all this comes to fruition, this is going to be something to watch because they need that rain now.
• 20:04
  And if they get it now, things would stabilize, but it doesn't look like it's on the way. As you move further north, it's actually the opposite. Now these areas were a little bit dry not too long ago, but then we had a cool front move through last week, and another front is moving through now. And that's going to turn Central And Northern Brazil a lot wetter. Now wetness at this time of the year is not all that unusual.
• 20:26
  February is actually the wettest time of the year with some of these areas averaging four to four and a half inches per two weeks in the month of February. So it gives you some idea of just how wet they can get, and this is the peak of the rainy season. So it's not all that unusual to see these heavy rains coming in like we're going to see over the next week or two. But they're not ideally timed. We're harvesting soybeans in Mato Grosso now, and we're also planting corn.
• 20:54
  So heavy rain now slows that whole process down. And then as you move to the north, while the rains are certainly beneficial, they would have been a little more ideal back in January. But overall, that's a lower production region. So it's kind of a mixed bag in Brazil, Todd, once you put all this together.
• 21:10
  Todd Gleason: Here in The United States, what are the things you're watching?
• 21:13
  Mike Tannura: Well, we have a long term drought that's developed from Oklahoma and Texas through the Southern Corn Belt and the Mid South. This is primarily along in, including the southern halves of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and also in the Southern half of Missouri, and then points onto the South. If you look at rainfall over the last hundred and eighty days, it's been below normal for about 67% of US soft red winter wheat production. And that's the highest value we've seen in February in more than our twelve years of record. It just gives you an idea that this is somewhat unusual.
• 21:47
  Now it is going to turn a lot different as we move forward because we've been in this cold spell for a while. Now it's going to turn a lot warmer once we get into next week and probably into the following week after that. With that warmer weather comes higher humidity values, and with that comes better rain chances. There are some pretty decent rain chances for all of these areas that are in a drought once we get into the second half of next week and then beyond then. We'd like to see those verified even though it's not super important in February to be seeing some good rains.
• 22:18
  If it doesn't rain much next week and then we go into another dry pattern, we're not really that far from March. That's where people might start to pay a little more attention to this. But it's something that we're watching. And if these rains do come up, we'll still need to see some more. But at least it would give us some indication that we're not in a long running drought because as it says today, we are in one.
• 22:38
  Todd Gleason: K. Thank you much. We appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.
• 22:41
  Mike Tannura: Sounds great, Todd.
• 22:42
  Todd Gleason: Mike Tenoras with t storm weather. That's tstorm.net online. You've been listening to the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon. Don't forget to visit our website. We're in the calendar of events.
• 22:53
  You may sign up for next Tuesday's Dudley Smith winter meeting, or on the home page there, willag.org, you can sign up for the Tuesday, March 3, all day I got look at the beef house in Covington, Indiana. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Doctor.