Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Trump Pats Farmers Backs | Grain Market Talk March 27th, 2026

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Trump Pats Farmers Backs | Grain Market Talk March 27th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the green news you need right now.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves a potential risk of loss that is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_03: Well, we've got uh pretty active week here for the grain market, so I thought we'd add another person to the podcast here this afternoon.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_03: Just uh to get a little bit smarter.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_03: We brought both Pat and Lucas into the room today.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_03: So happy Friday, guys.
• 0:36
  unknown: Happy Friday, Mike.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thanks for having me in, Mike.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: This is uh nice crowded podcast studio for a Friday afternoon.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_03: That it is.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_03: We'll make shift here, so thanks to Kate on that.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_03: But just looking at the grain markets here for as busy of a week as we had, we just ended up unchanged on December corn from last Friday and up just three cents on November soybeans.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_03: So not a whole lot of uh change week over week on price close, anyways, but a heck of a lot of news came out, guys.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_03: If you look at the timeline, it really kicked off here probably what Wednesday when we got a little bit of leaked info on the RVO news.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_03: And then uh here on Friday we had Trump speaking to the White House with a tractor on the front lawn, not something you see every week.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_03: So, where do you guys want to start in the conversations of topics here in this afternoon's podcast?
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_02: Well, let's go ahead and spend a little bit more time on uh what, if any, substance uh was uh shared with us uh at uh uh Trump's uh um news conference today, Mike.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_02: Was there anything of substance that there was willing to talk about?
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_03: Well, let's start probably the RVO news.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_03: I think that probably has the biggest long-term implications that has been very muddy water to kind of walk through with a lot of uncertainty.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_03: So uh we like I said before, the these numbers were leaked on Wednesday, and it pretty much looked exactly like those, didn't it, Lucas?
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yep, correct.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: So that was uh kind of some of the speculation this week is where are the actual numbers gonna come in at, and they were almost identical to what was leaked uh on on earlier this week.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the one thing that was a little different, they were all expressed in RINs, uh the numbers that came out earlier, which seemed kind of odd that they talked in different uh units of measure.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_03: Uh because it was gallons before, right?
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: It was gallons before, and so then you got to convert it to rins, but like when you did all that, it it basically maintains 15 billion gallons of of ethanol for 26 and 27, which is kind of what they said before.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: It's kind of what the RFS has been.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um and and so it's good, right?
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: Like that's we shouldn't uh from a corn producer, soybean producer, biofuel supporter perspective, uh at this point in the game, you're happy if they aren't cutting it.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: So I think we'll we'll count this as a win today, Mike.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_02: And they also tweaked some of the rules as it relates to foreign uh uh feedstock uh versus domestic as well, right?
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so that would probably be what I would call the the biggest news or the most bullish news in the little press conference that they did, or the information that they sent out at the same time or right before the press conference.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: And just so I don't get the numbers wrong looking at the the numbers.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_01: So this isn't going to start till 2028.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but the foreign fuels and feed stocks that come in to the US for blending will only receive half of the RFS compliance value compared to domestic made uh biofuel uh blend.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that is definitely positive for the uh domestic producer because you are eliminating some of the palm oil, use cooking oil.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um the blenders or the uh yeah, the blenders are gonna be less incentivized to use those if they are only counting as half of their requirement.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: They're gonna say, well, we should use the domestic uses to get our full requirement and any incentives and tax rebates they're getting for that.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um it's not as strict as some of the information that had leaked out last summer, right?
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: They were going to ban all uh use cooking oil, for example, wasn't getting any credits for blending it.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not that good, although we kind of realized that was probably a little bit too good to be true.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: And so if it does settle this out at 50% value, that should slow down the importance of that market, um, rely more on domestic use, which is great.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: The one thing to keep in mind is starting in 2028, and so that is a couple years down the road.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: Uh of course, things can change until then.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_03: Well, the best way to track this, in my opinion, was watching the soybean oil market this week.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_03: Wednesday, Thursday, we had a pretty significant rally in the soybean oil complex.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_03: Today it took about half of the week's rally back.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_03: So a little bit of buy the rumor, sell the fact in the soybean uh complex.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_03: Meal was down five or six by the end of the day here, and then soybeans were down 14 as well today.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_03: So a little bit of that action going on from this.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_03: That's basically what I took from it, anyways, for how the markets cared about it.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_03: Uh the other energies obviously have uh a whole other bucket of items going along with that.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_03: So I don't think that the uh big oil was really so concerned with today's press conference.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_02: You know, 30 solar years, 30 years or so ago, when we first started talking about ethanol and mandates and those sorts of such things, I wouldn't have guessed that 30 years later that we're still on the edge of our seats, uh, you know, waiting for a presidential announcement on mandates in order for for uh what's gonna happen next with biofuels.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_02: And so um nonetheless, that's uh where we are today, but um we can also talk about internal fundamentals a little bit, and there's uh uh plenty of uh interesting uh things going on on on that front as well, not the least of which is the stocks and acreage report that's gonna come out on Tuesday of next week.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_02: And and uh I don't know, guys, I think we should just talk about acres intentions a little bit, and I think we should try to separate the discussion.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_02: Um one topic needs to be what do we think this report's gonna say, and then the other topic needs to be what do we think is actually happening, right, as it relates to acres, because um, you know, one of the messages I that we've tried to convey in this podcast and and when we are interacting directly with our clients is that um slowly, maybe subtly, maybe not, the corn balance sheet in particular is changing, right?
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_02: Not in because of Middle East conflict and and and other layers.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_02: But um, Tuesday's report is gonna be an important one just as it relates to setting the foundation for what we're gonna use for balance sheets as we project going forward.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_02: So let's talk about acres a little bit.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_02: First of all, um, what do we think the government's going to say on Tuesday for corn acres?
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_03: Well, this is gonna be a huge step, and we were trading like Iran conflict stuff and not so directly fundamental news.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_03: This is gonna be a huge switch.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_03: Like, we're gonna trade this info really hard, I think.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_03: So, one, the biggest surprise would be, or uh probably interesting fact is a lot of folks are really talking about really high acres between corn and soybeans both.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_03: We typically don't ever go above 180 million acres between corn and soybeans together combined.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_03: And like Farm Futures uh magazine here this week, some of the surveys people have been doing, they're going over 180.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_03: So this would be a change in the complete opposite direction of urban sprawl development is taking farmland, all of that stuff, right?
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_03: Um, it's probably at the expense of other things like cotton or rice or uh wheat, for example.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_03: Uh some of that is getting talked about as well.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_03: But a lot of the numbers are coming in anywhere between uh 94 million acres on corn and 96 million acres on corn and somewhere around 84 or 85 million acres on soybeans.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_03: Um but it's gonna get traded really hard no matter where we come in at.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_03: And it the big question mark I still have in this whole thing is when that report is calculated or that survey is done until the beginning of March or so, what what credit are they gonna give or what weight are they gonna give the fertilizer discussion in this because of the conflict lately?
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_03: Are they gonna give us the numbers that they would have been anyways, and then throw a note on the first page and say, oh, by the way, this is subject to change because fertilizer went up a little bit?
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_02: Sure.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_02: You want to talk a little bit about the fertilizer change, Lucas?
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I guess that that is something we've talked a lot about internally here this week is as you specifically urea, right?
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: Deep potash and and phosphorus really haven't moved much, and a lot of that is already applied uh in for or at least the area where you deal in most often.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: Um the nitrogen price has increased considerably with the with the war in Iran and or the conflict in Iran, or however you want to talk about that.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but you know, a lot of local retailers we're talking to, urea specifically.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: Last fall you could have picked up for you know$500 a ton, give or take$20, right?
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: It if you bought it a little early, you probably paid$520,$530.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: You waited till the end of the year, you might have got it for$480, right?
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: So$500.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_01: And now I'm gonna say$800 is if I was gonna call up my retailer, it's gonna be$800.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe it's$820, maybe it's$825, roughly a$300 per ton increase.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: If for an average producer in our area, that would relate out to about an increase of$43 per acre more for you to apply nitrogen for your crop for your corn crop this year.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: So$43 an acre is a large increase in three weeks due to one conflict.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, something we can talk about next is how long this nitrogen uh might stay high, right?
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: It's spiked up on one event, but it there might have been things going on with what got attacked that's gonna keep it high.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: But for this season, nitrogen went up.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um but corn price went up too, right, Mike?
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: How much has corn rallied, D's corn rallied from the first part of March till now?
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_03: 35 cents.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_03: Okay, so call it 30 cents for easy math.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_01: So if I got so I'm gonna say 30 cents for easy math, because this is a podcast, and if I grow 200 bushels of corn, that's$60 more revenue I got off of that crop, right, with the increase.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: So if I was waiting to buy fertilizer, I probably haven't sold my corn yet.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: So now even though fertilizer's gone up 43 bucks, my revenue's probably gone up 60.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not sitting in it's probably a little bit uh a little bit your mindset when you hear it, you get frustrated, like, oh my gosh, fertilizer is way too high, I can't afford to plant corn anymore.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: And in reality, if you're selling your corn at the same time you're buying your fertilizer, it's not as bad as it seems.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_03: The margin hasn't decreased really.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: It hasn't changed that much.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_01: Now, there could be a whole other aspect of can your retailer get it in time?
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: Um, can you get it on in the in the fashion or the form you want and the timeline you want?
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_01: But that's another aspect that every farm would have to consider.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: But the nice thing about nitrogen is you can put it on at any time.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: So if your retailer says, you know, I can't get your my urea shipped in, because let's be honest, in the next week or two we'll be spreading a lot of urea.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_01: I can't get it in in time, but maybe I can spread it in June.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: All right, like that's that's a nice thing in nitrogen, is you can split apply it or put it on later.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_01: Or do liquid or you could switch to a liquid product or something as well.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: So I I think the the initial reaction again, nitrogen's too high, that's gonna move corn acres.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: Potentially it does, but I don't think if you look at the the amount corn has gone up, it hasn't been as bad as the initial gut reaction of Iria's$800.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_02: So on that issue of acres, I um one of the things that we'll pay a little uh attention to the detail is is where these acres are allocated on that report on Tuesday.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_02: Because I I I while I do agree with this observation that the recent developments likely don't materially change um planting intentions in the heart of the belt, maybe has a little bit more of an impact on the fringes, potentially, right?
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_02: And so it's one of the things that I I mean, it regardless of the numbers come in at 94, 95, or 96, or by the way, something outside of that range, which that's a market mover, big time, right?
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_02: Either either direction.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_02: But but it if we we will be paying some attention to where those acres are going to be planted, and that could potentially put them a little bit more risk, risk for adjustment.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_02: And then the next point I think is again once these numbers are printed, then uh, especially in fringe areas, potentially, do we think about that that that's the highest number we're gonna see for the year?
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_02: Ah, not willing to say that quite yet, because you know, at that point, uh at this point then weather starts to take over and planting conditions and the opportunity to put the crop in early and all those sorts of things.
• 12:49
  unknown: Yep.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: And so just on that topic, a little bit on the fringe areas, you know, wheat price has rallied as well.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're in North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and you've been struggling growing wheat the last couple of years and the prices aren't very good, you've had a little bump.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the thing with wheat, though, it takes as much nitrogen fertilizer to grow as a corn crop in those areas.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_01: So if you see some move to wheat, it's not going to be, in my opinion, a fertilizer, it's going to be a spread out the risk or try to try to reward a wheat market that's rather.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_03: It's more to canola in North Dakota.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_03: That's your French acre.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_03: Those are the acres switching today, with especially with the things going on in the soil.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_02: There's some portions of the western corn belt that are plenty dry as well.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_02: And uh, you know, a crop that can handle that a little bit better would be is worth a consideration as well.
• 13:35
  unknown: Yep.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_03: And it's the end of the month, too.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_03: I mean, uh, the talk about volatility, end of the month, big reports coming up, you know, the massive uh money flow changing hands here recently makes a little bit of sense too, with the end of March coming.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_02: I did want to take a couple minutes and just talk about just to build on Lucas's comment as it relates to uh you know the initial uh movement in nitrogen prices here, and and Lucas alluded to the risk of long-term uh impact there.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_02: And and uh that's a very real thing.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_02: Significant damage uh to Qatar's uh Ras-Lafan industrial city.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_02: Um you know the capacity is you know 17% of the world's um LNG uh is exported from there.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um and it's uh this is a three to five year process whenever they get around to start uh to start repairing.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_02: And and while the the US producer, um the US generally, you know, we're we're a little bit more secure in our in our nutrient production, nitrogen production, uh globally this is going to have an impact.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_02: And you don't just fix these things overnight.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_02: And and so um you know, we we likely are uh looking at uh some systemic uh higher prices globally as it relates to to fertilizer values going forward.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_03: Which on that front as well, uh we we've maintained uh this extension uh at the request of the Iranian government that peace negotiations are ongoing.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_03: Uh Iran really isn't claiming that they're holding any talks at this point, so we'll see how that goes.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_03: But uh at this point, April 6th is a deadline for the new truce there.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_03: So we have a little break in bombing over the weekend on major energy production facilities, things like that.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_03: But once we get past the sixth here, then uh it could be bombs away again.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: That's really crazy to think about, Pat.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: I I know you brought that up earlier today internally, and just thinking how uh a an important site for liquid natural gas production in a country that isn't even involved in the war uh could potentially increase nitrogen fertilizer prices worldwide for years to come.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't seem like somebody's thought that through of maybe we should build a few more of these facilities or something so one event doesn't completely wreck our uh our uh nitrogen fertilizer prices worldwide.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: And like I've also the news came out recently that CHS is not even they were gonna build a plant, uh nitrogen plant in uh North Dakota and they pulled the plans for that.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_01: Then maybe this events tend to change that or things, but like that's just mind-boggling to me that if we're gonna sit in here in two years wondering why is urea price a thousand dollars a ton.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: Well, remember that two years ago when they bonded Ross Lafon.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: Is that how you say that?
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_02: I think we can say any way we want.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_02: And if anybody wants to like super interest, exactly.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well, and and those are just good examples of something that we've learned maybe over and over again in the last five or six years.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_02: Like, I mean, I like even during COVID, right?
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_02: We have talked an awful lot about, oh gosh, you know, there sure is a short a whole lot of risk in our supply chain, right?
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_02: One little deviation and the whole thing gets disrupted.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_02: The Strait of Hormuz is another example.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_02: Like we never talked enough about the risk associated with a 23-mile stretch of water down there as well.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_02: And so, yes, you're right.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_02: I think there's uh it is a good reminder that there's an we we are incredibly reliant, right, upon global trade.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, we were kind of joking about the the the uh the Fent uh tractor that was on you know at in the news conference today and and and how that assembled in Jackson, Minnesota, which is great, but uh, you know, parts from from all over the world.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_02: And so um as we I mean, those are and and and agriculture has benefited from that greatly, right?
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, and so that there isn't anything to say that's negative about that other than the the points of reliance and and the importance of understanding um how that can both positively and negatively impact our business.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty cool.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_03: All right, any other final thoughts for our listeners going into next week after this?
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_02: Well, if if if if if if we haven't learned anything else uh the than what we've tried to talk about here, I guess the last thing would just be the the uh uh the implied volatility.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_02: The actual volatility is different today than it was a month ago.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and uh that's a good thing.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_02: I just if I can allow to say that again, and and and so um you know work with your risk manager, give us a call, give us a chance to uh uh create a marketing plan that makes sense for your business, and I can assure you there'll be some element of working orders associated with that strategy and plan because uh these markets uh um are trading headlines aggressively, these markets are also trying to uh um metabolize the fundamental information that's happening in these markets as well, and uh they're gonna move, and that's a good thing if as long as we have a plan to execute.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_03: Very true.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_03: All right.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_03: Well, thanks for tuning in, everyone, today.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_03: Reminder to click the uh link in the description to sign up for our daily market commentary, get fast insights into our egg markets, and so much more.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_03: So also check out our website at professionalagmarketing.com.