Latest / Mastering Encompass® / Jobs, Jobs, Jobs - Market Update 4/8/2024

Transcript

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs - Market Update 4/8/2024 · Mastering Encompass®

• 0:29
  Hey everybody, Larry Bailey here with Awesome Technologies Inc.
• 0:32
  bringing you this week's weekly newsletter.
• 0:35
  We're going to go back over the week of April 1st, 2024 in review. Today is April 8th.
• 0:41
  This information is brought to you from MBS Highway, your trusted source for mortgage market intelligence. Get over to mbshighway.com for all the current information and you're definitely going to want to do that if you want to stay involved with what's going on as each moment passes.
• 0:56
  So I'll see you brought to you by Awesome Technologies Inc.
• 0:59
  who supports you in your Encompass journey.
• 1:02
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• 1:09
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• 1:27
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• 1:30
  You can come to as many live classes and as many recordings as you want. No time limits. Let's get into this review.
• 1:37
  Again, this is for the week of April 21st, 2024 and job growth surpassed expectations in March while home prices, home price growth remains strong ahead of busy ah spring home buying season.
• 1:48
  Here goes the story. So, the first story is March job gains reward above estimates. That's true. Second story is jump in ADP job numbers.
• 1:56
  The next story is job openings flat, but the quit rate remains low, people quitting remaining low. The next story is initial jobless claims reach 2 month high and Oh The last story is strong home price growth continues.
• 2:08
  So this first story is March job gains reward above estimates.
• 2:12
  And this date is brought to you from your labor statistics.
• 2:15
  The beer of labor statistics to be a last reported at three or three hundred three thousand jobs created. In March, which was much much much much stronger than 200,000 jobs expected.
• 2:26
  Revisions to January and February also added additional 22,000 jobs and those months combined.
• 2:31
  However, losses in full time jobs were offset by gains along part time workers and multiple job holders. The unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8%. It has remained in this narrow range between 3.7 and 3.9 since the last August, August, 2023.
• 2:47
  So the bottom line here with this story is the Fed is a dual mandate of course of price stability and max- Thanks.
• 2:52
  The maximum employment. When inflation became rampant a few years ago they began aggressively hiking their benchmark fed funds rate which is the overnight rate for borrowing between banks and to slow this economy down and hopefully reduce pricing pressures.
• 3:06
  After their 11th rate hike last a lot.
• 3:08
  I had a fed pause to further rate hikes as inflation cooled and while inflation has fallen considerably since it's peak of 22 the progress towards Fed's 2% targets measured by the core personal consumption expenditures has also slowed. Given the Fed's dual mandate.
• 3:25
  . The cooling job market is the other factor that could pressure them to cut the Fed funds rates sooner than later.
• 3:31
  However, the overall strength of the Mark's jobs report, including the falling unemployment rate, will likely not add any pressure to the timeline.
• 3:39
  They wanted to raise rates, they've had rates for up there.
• 3:41
  They were hoping to bring down job growth, hoping to bring down prices.
• 3:44
  It didn't work, and so I don't know about these rate cuts that we were all expecting. We'll have to wait and see.
• 3:50
  This next story is the Jumpin' ADP job numbers.
• 3:53
  This information is brought to me from the ADP.
• 3:56
  So the ADP team. Employment reports show that the private payrolls rose more than expected in March, led by a huge boost in the leisure and hospitality sector.
• 4:04
  Employers added 184,000 new jobs versus the 148,000 that had been forecasted.
• 4:10
  While job growth in February also revised higher by 15 th- ,, ,,000 jobs. Girth among small businesses remained muted, however, businesses with fewer than 50 employees only added 16,000 jobs.
• 4:24
  Bottom line here in this story is ADP noted that quote, last month solved the biggest jump in hiring since July of 2016.
• 4:29
  . . 33, what straw gains across all industries except professional services were hiring fell. Close quote.
• 4:37
  So, the chief economist Nila Richardson added that quote, inflation, and been cooling but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services, clearly. Close quote. On that note, annual pay gains for job stayers were flat at 5.1% after months of study deceleration. The average increase for job changers quote rose dramatically.
• 4:56
  From 7.6% February to 10% last month, making the second consecutive gain. And ah,if we, if we've been watching this story about job quitters getting a higher raise, that means employers are offering higher incentives to get people to come into their company from wherever they are.
• 5:13
  That's something to watch. Um job job openings are flat, quit rate remains low, that's the next story here and this, this information comes from the latest job openings in labor turnover survey that jolts report showed that jobs. Job openings were little changed from February at 8.756 million, though this followed. All right. A big downward revision from January to 8.86 3 million to 8.748 million.
• 5:39
  The hiring rate rose from 3.6% to 3.7% while the quit rate remained at 2.2% for the 4th straight month.
• 5:47
  The story, uh the bottom line here in the story is the number of job openings may be weaker than the headline suggests since the rise room at work has been led uh multiple states blah blah blah.
• 5:57
  Uh it's just the same story over and over again.
• 6:00
  The quit rate has also been the lowest in 2018 other than COVID which suggests that- less poaching from other companies and fewer people fleeing a feeling confident about the finding of the employment. We'll have to see how that happens here with- when again when you leave work and you get paid twice as much as if you stay I bet you were going to start to see some upticks and quit rate. We'll have to- let's see. Initial jobless claims reach 2 month highs in next story and the initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 in the latest week with 221,000 people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continue a claim sold by 19,000 with 1.791 million and still receiving benefits after filing initial claim.
• 6:37
  time. Bottom line here is while the number of first time filing for unemployment benefits remain low, this latest rise push, uh, this latest rise pushed initial jobless claims to the highest level since January. Meanwhile, continue to claim that you're heading higher. I will say that trend is down.
• 6:57
  Like it's not no longer in the 1.8. So, uhm, we'll have to see what happens here in the next month or so.
• 7:02
  Next story is a strong home price.
• 7:05
  Uh, growth continues. CoreLogic's latest home price index showed that national home and what we're home values rose 0.7% from January to February.
• 7:12
  Coming in much stronger than the flat monthly reading they had forecasted prices were also up 5.5% from a year ago. Bottom line here is CoreLogic Forecast that home prices will rise 0.4% in March and 3.1% of the year.
• 7:24
  Going forward, though this will likely be revised higher as a forecast, or typically on the conservative side. For example, CoreLogic originally forecasted that we would see 3% appreciation in 2023, but we saw 5.5%. Plus going back to 2021 they forecasted a 6.6% decline. Let's not forget that, and that's when we saw nearly a 19% gain. So the data from CoreLogic and other made your home price indices like Kay Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency shows that price growth remains strong as we head into a busy uhh from going season.
• 7:56
  And listen, if you if you umm love here in the podcast, thank you very much. If you want to see this all on screen, uh go ahead and get over to the Mortgage.com community.
• 8:04
  Also that's where you'll find the family hack of the week. If you're interested in the pecan pie bars recipe courtesy of Taste of Home, head over to mortgage.com community. You can check it out Wednesday also brings the minutes from the feds March. We have meeting to an and an important 10 year note auction. While the latest job list claims and 30 year bond auction follow on Thursday. If you're watching this ticker up here we see the treasuries up 5 basis points and the U.S.
• 8:42
  M. V.S. is down 23 basis points.
• 8:45
  We've seen a lot of action this week, um jobs cool you know jobs happening a lot of changes happening.
• 8:51
  As always I always say if you got a deal and you got the money take it you can always make a different decision later on but do not wait if you're trying to figure out what to do in this market you are Go in to lose one way or another.
• 9:03
  My name is Larry Bailey with Austin Technologies Inc.
• 9:05
  Again get over to mortgage.community to check out all this information on replay or if you want to see these this video on screen and head over to masteringencompass.com to always stay up to date and be best trained for your experience as an administrator or as a user on the Encompass platform.
• 9:22
  Thanks and be well.