Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NBA Playoffs Betting Preview

Transcript

NBA Playoffs Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: It is Tuesday afternoon. We have play in games starting
0:21
Speaker 1: tonight and tomorrow night. Playoffs will officially begin on Saturday May.
0:29
Speaker 1: Plenty of time for people to take what we teach
0:32
Speaker 1: them and make their plays in a few minutes. We're
0:35
Speaker 1: gonna have Action Network Senior editor controlling our NBA coverage,
0:40
Speaker 1: Malik Smith, along with Action Network Senior NB A writer, analyst,
0:48
Speaker 1: extraordinary air host of heat Check on at Action Network,
0:53
Speaker 1: Gauge Q, host of our bet cast that we did
0:57
Speaker 1: with the NBA this past year, Matt war We're going
1:00
Speaker 1: to get to all that. Simon Hunter, my bff, my companion,
1:08
Speaker 1: my best friend in the world. How you doing. It's
1:12
Speaker 1: doing good, buddy at a nice had a nice weekend.
1:15
Speaker 1: How's your weekend? My weekend was amazing. It's beautiful weather.
1:20
Speaker 1: I spent five hours on Saturday afternoon reading a book
1:25
Speaker 1: and it was awesome. Hopefully outside. Yeah, I was outside.
1:28
Speaker 1: And then Sunday it was like crappy weather for part
1:30
Speaker 1: of the day, so I got to watch a lot
1:32
Speaker 1: of NBA. I watched the Wizards, Hornets. Uh, the Hornets
1:36
Speaker 1: announcers continue to be to me after Stacy King and
1:41
Speaker 1: Adam a Mean from my beloved Bulls, the Hornets announcers
1:44
Speaker 1: are revelation. I think his name is Eric Collins, the
1:47
Speaker 1: play by play guy for the Hornets, and he is
1:50
Speaker 1: so good and so fun, and that team is actually
1:54
Speaker 1: they're gonna be pretty decent. Like I like the way
1:57
Speaker 1: Terry Rozio has been playing. Obviously, we love lamel PJ Washington,
2:02
Speaker 1: Miles Bridges, Cody Zeller even plays hard like that team.
2:06
Speaker 1: That team's got a shot to be pretty good eventually,
2:09
Speaker 1: not not yet. And then I watched Steph. I watched
2:11
Speaker 1: Stephan the Warriors, and it was amazing. On Sunday afternoon, Um, Simon, Chad,
2:16
Speaker 1: you completely with I was gonna I thought you were
2:18
Speaker 1: gonna talk about Justin Fields rookie minicamp. Well, I did
2:22
Speaker 1: watch every single second video from Justin Fields rookie minicamp uh,
2:28
Speaker 1: and I think he looked amazing. I think he was
2:31
Speaker 1: throwing a tight spiral. I think he was accurate. I
2:34
Speaker 1: think everybody was really excited about him. I can't wait
2:36
Speaker 1: for him to be QB three on the depth chart
2:39
Speaker 1: when the season opens, and for the Bears to find
2:41
Speaker 1: a way to ruin him. I'm super excited about all that.
2:44
Speaker 1: Let's say this is the best because it's just a
2:46
Speaker 1: guy in shorts and a helmet and you can't go
2:48
Speaker 1: wrong right now. So this is like the happiest time
2:50
Speaker 1: of having a rookie quarterback. It's all happy right now.
2:53
Speaker 1: I think it was when the Bears drafted Kate McNown
2:58
Speaker 1: uh from u C. L A in the first round.
3:01
Speaker 1: Maybe he was the twelfth overall pick, and I had
3:04
Speaker 1: decided I pitched ESPN the magazine, and they had accepted.
3:07
Speaker 1: When I was working there a story about those first
3:12
Speaker 1: five days of a rookie mini camp and almost like
3:15
Speaker 1: what happens from the second to draft ends until that
3:19
Speaker 1: mini camp is done, because there's so much activity, right
3:22
Speaker 1: so they really left me behind the scenes. And I
3:25
Speaker 1: was there when they were trying to sign undrafted free
3:28
Speaker 1: agents and you can talk about the dominant impact that
3:30
Speaker 1: has on building depth on a team and whatever, but
3:34
Speaker 1: I also went to go meet Kay McNown at O'Hare
3:38
Speaker 1: and they didn't tell me when he was coming in.
3:40
Speaker 1: I figured out what flight he was on and when
3:42
Speaker 1: he was coming in, and when I get there, nobody
3:45
Speaker 1: from the Bears was there. It was me standing by
3:52
Speaker 1: the baggage terminal, I see Kay McNown standing by himself
3:57
Speaker 1: grabbing a bag, and as I'm walking him out to
4:01
Speaker 1: the curb, thinking I'm driving him the house hall, someone
4:04
Speaker 1: from the Bear shows up to drive him. But that's
4:06
Speaker 1: how the Bears treat their first round quarterbacks. Their future quarterback,
4:10
Speaker 1: Kate McNown was by himself a baggage claim and that
4:13
Speaker 1: was pretty much a metaphor for his entire experience in Chicago.
4:17
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure justin flew private, so it's it's definitely
4:20
Speaker 1: updated since the times have changed. Times have changed. How's uh,
4:24
Speaker 1: how was your date with your queen? Oh? I got
4:28
Speaker 1: two dates? I know. Put this out there. This is
4:30
Speaker 1: just so weird. Like I tried not to tell her exactly.
4:33
Speaker 1: I try to. I try to tell her what I
4:35
Speaker 1: do without telling her what I do, and then unfortunately
4:39
Speaker 1: I think someone told her about my life and like
4:42
Speaker 1: what I do to make a living. Again, if you're
4:45
Speaker 1: hearing it for like a third party, this like she
4:47
Speaker 1: probably thinks I live in Atlantic City and I go
4:49
Speaker 1: down there all the time, where like I do, I'm
4:51
Speaker 1: in sports books. I guess one third of the year
4:55
Speaker 1: I spend in some type of sports book doing something
4:58
Speaker 1: gambling wise, but this time I'm not living in some
5:01
Speaker 1: hut like I don't know. I think you just got
5:04
Speaker 1: a perception. I'm just like true full on degenerate, which
5:07
Speaker 1: I am a degenerate, but I am like a smart
5:09
Speaker 1: one where I picked my spots. So yeah, she came
5:12
Speaker 1: in firing. I guess two days after we had a date.
5:14
Speaker 1: I just have all this stuff she had heard, and
5:16
Speaker 1: I was just like, I don't know how to defend
5:19
Speaker 1: myself via text. So I'm pretty much, um, I did
5:24
Speaker 1: something real balls, you're gonna like this. I sent her
5:27
Speaker 1: my ex's phone number, and I said, you can hit
5:29
Speaker 1: her up and ask her anything you want about me,
5:32
Speaker 1: because she'll give you an honest opinion, all the good
5:34
Speaker 1: and the bad. Take what you want from it. But
5:36
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna sit here and defend myself about the
5:38
Speaker 1: life I live. So I pretty much put the batter
5:41
Speaker 1: at court because, like dude, I'm not gonna quit my
5:42
Speaker 1: job for a queen. I don't care how amazing this
5:46
Speaker 1: queen is. I love my job. I love what I do,
5:48
Speaker 1: So it's like, you know you can like me for
5:50
Speaker 1: me if you don't love my job. It's kind of
5:52
Speaker 1: a package deal. This is amazing. So I do want
5:56
Speaker 1: to get to the week in that. But I got
5:59
Speaker 1: two more questions on this and a common commentary. Uh,
6:03
Speaker 1: number one, number one, number one, um, number one. I
6:11
Speaker 1: know for a fact that you had two dates with her.
6:13
Speaker 1: I know you guys went out last Thursday night, and
6:16
Speaker 1: I know you were going out again on Friday night.
6:19
Speaker 1: I know this because we texted about it and how
6:24
Speaker 1: did you but we didn't get into detail. How did
6:26
Speaker 1: you not tell her what you did? Like? That is
6:29
Speaker 1: that is usually coming up in the first few minutes
6:32
Speaker 1: of any conversation, any meet and greet. How how do
6:34
Speaker 1: you be vague about that and have the conversation continue
6:37
Speaker 1: where she's not like this guy's sketchy. I am very sketchy.
6:42
Speaker 1: I'll start off with that. But I did. I did
6:44
Speaker 1: tell her I did this show, and I told her
6:47
Speaker 1: that like I do work for the Action Network. Did
6:50
Speaker 1: I tell her I was a desert rat for years
6:52
Speaker 1: and lived in Vegas and like like have a second
6:55
Speaker 1: life kind of No? So, uh, I was gonna get
6:59
Speaker 1: to that. It's just a lot to put on there, Like,
7:02
Speaker 1: I don't want this girl thinking I laundered money for
7:04
Speaker 1: all these years and I'm in bed with them motia
7:06
Speaker 1: like anything crazy like that, Like I don't live some
7:08
Speaker 1: crazy life like that. But yeah, I've done a lot
7:11
Speaker 1: of shady shot like stuff in my life. So it
7:14
Speaker 1: was one of those where I'm going to get to that.
7:16
Speaker 1: But on date two, I don't know. I didn't know
7:17
Speaker 1: how to bring that up. So we were good. That's
7:20
Speaker 1: what I mean. We were golden. But I think she
7:22
Speaker 1: just heard the outside noise. That's like, what can I do? Man?
7:25
Speaker 1: That's that's part of the deal. So she here's the
7:28
Speaker 1: outside noise. By the way, I love I love that
7:32
Speaker 1: we are now your cover story. That is amazing. You
7:36
Speaker 1: are leading. You are leading in your your attempt to
7:40
Speaker 1: get back into to the romantic life. You are leading
7:43
Speaker 1: with I'm an analyst for the Action Network and I
7:46
Speaker 1: co host the podcast The Favorites. If nothing else, I
7:49
Speaker 1: feel like I've given you a gift number one, number two,
7:54
Speaker 1: number two. Uh what what did she ask you specifically
8:00
Speaker 1: that you felt you had that you that put you
8:02
Speaker 1: on the defensive. Um, she was like, challenge me this
8:08
Speaker 1: sense of uh just about the whole sports betting thing.
8:13
Speaker 1: She was like, how like what do I what? I
8:15
Speaker 1: like pretty much is like asking what do you have
8:17
Speaker 1: to have like joint bank accounts? And I was like, sure,
8:19
Speaker 1: you'd have to sign a pre nup. Like I mean,
8:23
Speaker 1: it's like, that's what I mean. It's got a real
8:25
Speaker 1: aggressive conversation for two after two days, so we got like,
8:29
Speaker 1: I don't know, I was just like hoping, you know,
8:33
Speaker 1: it was one of those where I was hoping that
8:35
Speaker 1: it would be like a slow burn. I could get
8:37
Speaker 1: to know this chick and then start putting out all
8:39
Speaker 1: my demons. And she wants to know all the demons
8:41
Speaker 1: after two dates, and it's like, I mean, what normal,
8:43
Speaker 1: what normal relationship starts that way? So that's what I mean.
8:46
Speaker 1: It's already fractured. But I'm glad I got back out there.
8:49
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's nice to actually go on a
8:51
Speaker 1: date and be like, you know what, I can love again.
8:53
Speaker 1: So that's nice. I'm not crying myself to sleep anymore,
8:56
Speaker 1: so I'll take it. I love that you can love again.
8:59
Speaker 1: I love that you recognized the dangers in someone who's
9:02
Speaker 1: asking about joint checking accounts after two dates that included
9:07
Speaker 1: a walk on the boardwalk. Um, and this is what
9:10
Speaker 1: we're gonna do. We're gonna find you love, and we're
9:12
Speaker 1: gonna see if we can do it before football season,
9:14
Speaker 1: because we know, come football season, there's no competing for
9:17
Speaker 1: your time and attention, as you've stated publicly. Now, first
9:22
Speaker 1: Action Network in the Favorites, second, anything else that comes
9:26
Speaker 1: along in the form of betting. Speaking of Oh, and finally,
9:30
Speaker 1: the commentary I will give is it's hard to find
9:35
Speaker 1: a relationship that is healthy when you are a professional
9:39
Speaker 1: better pretty much. I mean in the sense that, Um,
9:45
Speaker 1: I worked the weirdest hours. Like again, I told you
9:48
Speaker 1: all the time during the season. For half the week,
9:51
Speaker 1: I'm up from three am to five am, either doing
9:53
Speaker 1: work or just talking to people in Vegas. So it's like, yeah, man,
9:57
Speaker 1: Like again, that's something I get into weeks, you know,
9:59
Speaker 1: dinner five or six. Um, that's not what I put
10:02
Speaker 1: out by in the first or second date. We're gonna
10:07
Speaker 1: have to figure this out for you, buddy, all right.
10:09
Speaker 1: Malik Smith, Matt Moore NBA Playoffs. I'm loving the play
10:17
Speaker 1: in game. I love the concept of it. I know
10:20
Speaker 1: Lebron hates it, but he's a little bitter. And um,
10:24
Speaker 1: I also bet on the Lakers at plus four fifty,
10:26
Speaker 1: but uh, it's amazing, Like Sunday was an awesome NBA day.
10:31
Speaker 1: Everybody was playing, there were so many things still at stake.
10:36
Speaker 1: Matt Moore as someone who has covered the NBA for
10:39
Speaker 1: a very long time, one of the best in the business,
10:41
Speaker 1: one of the most connected people. What was your what
10:44
Speaker 1: is your take on this play in game after the
10:47
Speaker 1: end of a regular season. I think it was great.
10:51
Speaker 1: I think it's a I think it's a great way
10:53
Speaker 1: to keep teams in competition. There's a lot of conversation
10:56
Speaker 1: about like, well, actually, you know, Memphis versus Golden State,
11:00
Speaker 1: it would have been big anyway. And I'm like, look,
11:01
Speaker 1: it's not about the last day of the season. It's
11:03
Speaker 1: about every day before that for the last two weeks.
11:06
Speaker 1: Like the last two weeks of the regular season is
11:08
Speaker 1: usually a drag. The teams are resting, nobody wants to play.
11:12
Speaker 1: It's just like, yeah, we're just kind of coasting into
11:13
Speaker 1: the playoffs. And instead, like every night it was Hey,
11:17
Speaker 1: you need to win this game because if you don't,
11:18
Speaker 1: you're gonna be two games from elimination. Hey you need
11:20
Speaker 1: to win this game or you're gonna be two games
11:22
Speaker 1: from elimination. Hey, you really need to win this game,
11:25
Speaker 1: or you have no shot of getting out of the
11:26
Speaker 1: two spot, and the Lakers are probably going to be
11:28
Speaker 1: the seven spot. Like that, the Lakers being in the
11:32
Speaker 1: position they did made it exceptionally insane, especially with the
11:35
Speaker 1: high jinks that we saw on side on Sunday nights
11:37
Speaker 1: between the Clippers, the Mavericks and the and the Nuggets.
11:41
Speaker 1: But in general, I think this mechanism has been great.
11:44
Speaker 1: I think these playing games are gonna be fantastic theater,
11:47
Speaker 1: and I think it's a really great dynamic that the
11:49
Speaker 1: league is added to the end of the season. Malik,
11:52
Speaker 1: you're a lifelong New York knickar Backers fan. In the
11:55
Speaker 1: first season of the playing tournament, not including the Bubble,
12:00
Speaker 1: the Knicks made it so lacking in drama. They end
12:03
Speaker 1: up with the four seed. They are the best team
12:05
Speaker 1: against the spread. Give me your assessment, your surprise, your
12:09
Speaker 1: feelings about the Knicks team who when they are good,
12:12
Speaker 1: people get so excited and even Nick's haters like they've
12:17
Speaker 1: been so bad for so long that there's sort of
12:19
Speaker 1: a curiosity cuddliness to the Nicks getting to where they
12:23
Speaker 1: are right now. Um, first of all, thanks for having
12:27
Speaker 1: me on. I appreciate it. Love hearing uh Simon's love stories.
12:32
Speaker 1: I love your your your go get her attitude, Chad,
12:35
Speaker 1: that you've been been giving him the positivity. Uh. As
12:38
Speaker 1: far as the Nicks go, let me just say one thing.
12:41
Speaker 1: I love that people are coming on and supporting Simon's
12:44
Speaker 1: pursuit of love. I love that we are a community
12:47
Speaker 1: that is open to the idea love, open to the
12:50
Speaker 1: idea of vulnerability, open to UH, supporting each other through
12:55
Speaker 1: all of these things. Right, love love, UM, And I
13:01
Speaker 1: love the Knicks and they've been very fun to love
13:05
Speaker 1: this year, although they've broken my heart so many times. UM.
13:10
Speaker 1: I've heard a lot of backhanded compliments on the Knicks
13:14
Speaker 1: this year. UM, I will say that I am surprised
13:21
Speaker 1: only in that they have continued to be good and like,
13:27
Speaker 1: there's a thing that the Knicks have done for the
13:31
Speaker 1: majority of my adult life. I will say where they
13:35
Speaker 1: start the season off and they're like, Okay, maybe they're
13:38
Speaker 1: not terrible. They're not great, but they're not terrible. Uh,
13:41
Speaker 1: and then around January they just fall off the face
13:43
Speaker 1: of the earth and then it's just like, Okay, well,
13:45
Speaker 1: who are we drafting next year? Uh? So it was
13:48
Speaker 1: nice not to have to do that this season. I
13:51
Speaker 1: think what's really been impressive, especially in the stretch that
13:56
Speaker 1: they managed to go on uh in April, was how
14:00
Speaker 1: unbelievable the offense has been. Um, the defense was great
14:04
Speaker 1: all season, but the offense has really really carried this team. Uh.
14:09
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm very surprised. I definitely thought we would
14:12
Speaker 1: fall into the play in tournament, which I was fine
14:14
Speaker 1: with because I figured we've been so terrible for so long. Literally,
14:18
Speaker 1: any amount of success is good success. My favorite thing
14:21
Speaker 1: to say before every next season is that we're gonna
14:23
Speaker 1: win thirty games because it's like it's good enough to
14:25
Speaker 1: not suck. But like you know, it's not high expectations,
14:28
Speaker 1: so I really won't be let down if they don't
14:30
Speaker 1: get there. Um. They clearly have outplayed every bit of
14:35
Speaker 1: expectation that they have, and normally I would be worried
14:38
Speaker 1: about that, but I actually feel like this team thinks
14:42
Speaker 1: it's as good as it is, maybe that they're even
14:44
Speaker 1: better than they are. Uh And I think that's going
14:47
Speaker 1: to carry with them into the postseason. So um, yeah,
14:51
Speaker 1: I think everything is looking up and and yeah, that
14:53
Speaker 1: the NBA is way better when the Knicks are good. Um.
14:56
Speaker 1: Everyone knows it. Anyone who doesn't agree is just a hater.
14:59
Speaker 1: And there's a I hate it's out there and I've
15:01
Speaker 1: been pretty humble. I'm pretty humble this season chat. So
15:05
Speaker 1: if I talk a lot of craziness in this podcast,
15:08
Speaker 1: like just just you know, feel free to calm me
15:11
Speaker 1: down because it might get crazy. I might get a
15:12
Speaker 1: little while. I would like to see you get a
15:15
Speaker 1: little while and speaking a tone of voice. In three
15:18
Speaker 1: years of working closely with you, it's never been outside
15:22
Speaker 1: of this timber. No matter how intense the conversation, no
15:26
Speaker 1: matter how much pressure we were under, this was your
15:30
Speaker 1: voice every single time. Well, I'm a too professional, so
15:33
Speaker 1: you are, You're a total pro um Matt Moore Simon,
15:38
Speaker 1: do you have a question before I before I move
15:40
Speaker 1: on to the next thing I do? I do. I
15:43
Speaker 1: have a few questions here, but I'll start here with
15:46
Speaker 1: Golden State to one to win the West? Am I
15:49
Speaker 1: an idiot that I bet on that? Because I just
15:51
Speaker 1: love Steph Curry. I just feel like the values there
15:54
Speaker 1: that he can literally will that team if he can
15:57
Speaker 1: make it into the playoffs, to do something crazy like
15:59
Speaker 1: pull off a running was so I had Warriors fourteen
16:04
Speaker 1: to one before the Clay injury. Um Justin Fan and
16:08
Speaker 1: I both bet the Warriors to win the title before
16:10
Speaker 1: the Clay Thompson injury. Justin got the better number than
16:13
Speaker 1: me because that's how annoying he is that he always
16:16
Speaker 1: gets a better number than me. But like I saw
16:20
Speaker 1: it before the Clay injury, I don't love it now,
16:23
Speaker 1: Like yes, like to one is like that's crazy, and
16:26
Speaker 1: that's and that's like, you know, it's like Steph Curry,
16:28
Speaker 1: how can Steph Curry. It's just that you're really gonna
16:31
Speaker 1: look at it and go. The NBA playoffs are so
16:33
Speaker 1: built on a certain number of parameters, and like I'll
16:36
Speaker 1: be coming back to this a lot, is that there
16:38
Speaker 1: are certain things that are tried and true in the
16:40
Speaker 1: NBA playoffs in the modern context, like last five seasons
16:43
Speaker 1: about where the playoffs have evolved too. And one of
16:45
Speaker 1: them is like, Okay, your start, your star is gonna
16:48
Speaker 1: have a big game. Their star is gonna have a
16:49
Speaker 1: big game, Like that's how it works. Uh, your second
16:52
Speaker 1: guy is gonna have a pretty big game, and that's
16:54
Speaker 1: Draymond Green, which for him means like five taken charges
16:57
Speaker 1: and some blocks and steals and like maybe ten assists
17:00
Speaker 1: and eight points if hopefully he hits a number of shots,
17:04
Speaker 1: maybe double digit scoring. And then like the question after
17:07
Speaker 1: that is like, all right, who's your next weapon? And
17:09
Speaker 1: for the Golden State Warriors, their next best weapon is
17:12
Speaker 1: probably Andrew Wiggins, which means that you have to be like, yeah,
17:15
Speaker 1: I'll put money down that Andrew Wiggins is gonna be
17:18
Speaker 1: my third guy or want to scan out Anderson or
17:21
Speaker 1: Jordan's pool. Like the rest of the Warriors, they play
17:25
Speaker 1: well right now because they're all playing like really high
17:27
Speaker 1: level defense and steps insane and that's a good model
17:31
Speaker 1: and I think it makes them a good value play
17:33
Speaker 1: in certain spots. But to do that over the course
17:36
Speaker 1: of the play in tournament, a first round series, a
17:40
Speaker 1: second round series, and then the conference finals, that is
17:44
Speaker 1: a lot to bank on. So I can't go with
17:46
Speaker 1: you on that. I can't deny that, like forty to
17:49
Speaker 1: one is a crazy number. But Golden we get really
17:53
Speaker 1: excited when step hits a lot of threes, and we
17:55
Speaker 1: overlook the of what the Warriors have been overall, which
17:58
Speaker 1: is for most of the season they were a five team. Yeah,
18:01
Speaker 1: because I had a friend who had his argument was
18:03
Speaker 1: we haven't had a dirt in a while, like the
18:05
Speaker 1: dirt will as a team always the NBA Finals, he
18:08
Speaker 1: wins it all. In my argument, then we had that
18:10
Speaker 1: with Kauai. Wasn't that kind of what Kauai was here?
18:12
Speaker 1: Do you think quite enough superstars talent around him where
18:15
Speaker 1: that really wasn't a parable dirt like we are do
18:17
Speaker 1: for superstar to carry just a team by himself always
18:20
Speaker 1: the NBA Finals. Mike, Well, yeah, I mean I think
18:26
Speaker 1: the Kauai situation was different. Obviously him kind of made
18:30
Speaker 1: a jump in the middle of the playoffs. Um, Matt
18:33
Speaker 1: hates uh Fred van Fleet for for going off the
18:36
Speaker 1: way he did, but I mean they had guys who
18:38
Speaker 1: just completely came out of nowhere and stepped up. So yes,
18:41
Speaker 1: it's possible. But to Matt's point, like this run that
18:44
Speaker 1: stuff has been on basically the last twenty three games.
18:46
Speaker 1: He's averaging like thirty six point nine points, but like
18:49
Speaker 1: some ridiculous number. And to Matt's point, the next highest
18:53
Speaker 1: scoring player is Andrew Wiggins. Obviously, basketball is not all
18:57
Speaker 1: about scoring points. Technically it is, but it's not. Uh,
19:00
Speaker 1: But if if you're asking me to trust like Andrew Wiggins,
19:04
Speaker 1: to be that guy throughout the playoffs, like if I'm
19:08
Speaker 1: even in this playing game, like if I'm Lebron, Yeah,
19:11
Speaker 1: I'm left all the rest of those jokers shoot as
19:13
Speaker 1: long as like they can shoot all they want. I
19:16
Speaker 1: won't let Steff go off or I'll lock all those
19:19
Speaker 1: other guys down and let steps try to score a
19:21
Speaker 1: hundred points, which I mean he probably could do, but
19:24
Speaker 1: like a at a certain point, he's gonna get tired, right,
19:27
Speaker 1: He's the difference between you could even go back to
19:31
Speaker 1: team right, like when Lebron went on that crazy run,
19:34
Speaker 1: the team that he had around him wasn't great. But
19:36
Speaker 1: outside of the fact that he's Lebron James, he's six eight,
19:39
Speaker 1: so he can handle the pounding that it would take
19:42
Speaker 1: for him to go through each round as an underdog
19:45
Speaker 1: and and keep beating these teams. We know Steph can
19:48
Speaker 1: do amazing things. I just don't know that Steph can
19:51
Speaker 1: do amazing things, uh throughout the postseason. Um, but I
19:57
Speaker 1: mean at one I would. It's obviously nice if you
20:00
Speaker 1: have that little bit a glimmer of hope that he
20:02
Speaker 1: could just continue to be insane, which you know, the
20:06
Speaker 1: more he keeps doing it and the more exciting is
20:07
Speaker 1: going to be and the more you're going to kind
20:09
Speaker 1: of be like, maybe I should throw using there's no
20:12
Speaker 1: way the Warriors are winning the finals. One is an
20:15
Speaker 1: idiotic bet. I cannot believe we even entertained that question
20:20
Speaker 1: before we get to my next question, which involves the Lakers,
20:24
Speaker 1: involves a more rational bet like I made um and
20:28
Speaker 1: involves the Lakers and the Warriors and the playing game.
20:32
Speaker 1: We do have two games tonight and and if anybody
20:34
Speaker 1: does download this podcast from the time that it posts
20:37
Speaker 1: until the games but begin. Indiana is a two point
20:40
Speaker 1: favorite over Charlotte. Boston is about a two and a
20:43
Speaker 1: half point favorite over UM over Washington. Right now, Uh,
20:48
Speaker 1: check out the Action Network gap. It's free downloaded. Get
20:51
Speaker 1: everything we're talking about in there, get the lines, get
20:53
Speaker 1: the update to get the picks, etcetera. UM, Matt or Malik,
20:58
Speaker 1: do you have any strong opinions on either Boston, Washington
21:04
Speaker 1: or Indiana and Charlotte. I love the Hornets, love the Hornets.
21:09
Speaker 1: I love that before Carris LeVert News. So, Carris LeVert
21:15
Speaker 1: has been rolled out with health and safety protocols. He
21:17
Speaker 1: has been the thing that has lifted them up. You
21:20
Speaker 1: can find updates on the Pacers injury situation in our
21:23
Speaker 1: Labs Insiders tool on Action Network dot Com, Demonsa Bonus
21:27
Speaker 1: and Malcolm Brogden are both questionable. They are expecting Bonus
21:30
Speaker 1: to play. Brogden is a lot bigger question mark because
21:32
Speaker 1: he's got a hamstring injury. You press that thing too
21:35
Speaker 1: much and it's gonna pop, and then you're gonna miss it,
21:37
Speaker 1: and then he's gonna have to miss the entire playoffs,
21:38
Speaker 1: and so what's the point like if you reaggravate that.
21:41
Speaker 1: So they're gonna be real cautious with Brogden. No lavert
21:44
Speaker 1: Brogden on the bad hamstring. Here's the bigger thing though.
21:48
Speaker 1: I did an article a few weeks back on Action
21:49
Speaker 1: Network dot Com M Moliken. I kind of game planned
21:52
Speaker 1: out this this article, and it looks at what are
21:55
Speaker 1: the things that make teams good in the regular season
21:57
Speaker 1: versus what they're good when they're good in the playoffs.
21:59
Speaker 1: And one of the biggest things that make teams good
22:01
Speaker 1: in the playoffs is defensive versatility, specifically if you can switch. Okay,
22:06
Speaker 1: the Hornets switch and pick and roll situations the second
22:09
Speaker 1: most of any team in the NBA. The Indian Pacers
22:13
Speaker 1: have the second worst scoring mark versus switching defenses in
22:17
Speaker 1: the NBA. The Pacers still have a problem with creating
22:20
Speaker 1: enough threes. Nap Yorkan, for all of his problems that
22:23
Speaker 1: he's had with the Pacers, was supposed to like revitalize
22:26
Speaker 1: the offense. There's still a low point, low three point
22:28
Speaker 1: shooting team. When teams hit thirteen or more threes versus
22:31
Speaker 1: them their nine and seventeen. This season, the Charlotte Hornets
22:36
Speaker 1: average thirteam made threes per game. They bomb from deep,
22:39
Speaker 1: and they switch everything. I love this matchup. I was
22:42
Speaker 1: kind of hasn't going in because Charlotte without Gordon Hayward
22:44
Speaker 1: has been so rough. I do think they're gonna win
22:47
Speaker 1: this one. I can't take him, I don't think in
22:48
Speaker 1: the next round versus either Boston or uh Indian or
22:52
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, versus the Wizards. I already took, though I
22:55
Speaker 1: took Wizards to make the playoffs the plus four fifty,
22:58
Speaker 1: so I'm already on the Ornates, but I'm a sespecially
23:00
Speaker 1: on them in this game versus Indiana. I liked the
23:03
Speaker 1: spot for them a lot. The Pacers coaching situation is interesting.
23:07
Speaker 1: This was a guy who came in so heralded assistant
23:11
Speaker 1: to Nick Nurse, had come up through the ranks, you
23:14
Speaker 1: know that that that coaching tree, and gets there and
23:20
Speaker 1: it feels like, honest to god, players are yelling at
23:24
Speaker 1: him as they go up and down the floor, almost
23:27
Speaker 1: mouthing off to him. What what is going on there? Like, Malik,
23:31
Speaker 1: you're shaking your head, Matt, both of you. Malague you first,
23:35
Speaker 1: how did this thing go off the rails? And what
23:37
Speaker 1: is he doing wrong to make everybody hate him? It
23:39
Speaker 1: seems like just everything is off right, like nothing's going well.
23:43
Speaker 1: I mean they've they've had injuries kind of hanging over
23:46
Speaker 1: their head all season, and I think that probably just
23:50
Speaker 1: set them off in the wrong, uh direction. Right. Oladipo
23:55
Speaker 1: when he was still on the team, was kind of
23:57
Speaker 1: coming back from an injury. He was already heard t J.
23:59
Speaker 1: Warren was out early. Um Sabonis has been in and out,
24:03
Speaker 1: Broaden has been in and out, Miles Turners out. Um.
24:07
Speaker 1: Like the just the chemistry of the team I think
24:09
Speaker 1: is just generally off. Um. He's a new coach personally.
24:13
Speaker 1: I don't understand why they got rid of Nate McMillan.
24:15
Speaker 1: He was I think at least, you know, granted they
24:19
Speaker 1: weren't winning championships, are competing for championships, but they were
24:22
Speaker 1: better than they are on this season, even though they
24:24
Speaker 1: have basically the same roster. Um. I think my guess
24:28
Speaker 1: is that he came in and he wanted to do
24:30
Speaker 1: certain things that the players didn't want to do. Uh,
24:33
Speaker 1: and that clashing just continued and continued. Um. Matt obviously
24:37
Speaker 1: might have more intel than I would, but I think overall,
24:41
Speaker 1: like you just, they just took a lot of hits
24:44
Speaker 1: this season, and when you're the coach, I think oftentimes
24:48
Speaker 1: you get blamed for that. They probably shouldn't have trade
24:52
Speaker 1: change coaches in general from last season, and as a
24:55
Speaker 1: Knicks fan, I know a lot about coaches being fired
24:59
Speaker 1: for no reason. Um, but I think overall, like you know,
25:02
Speaker 1: you come in and if you don't, if the guys
25:05
Speaker 1: don't click with you right away, it's kind of hard
25:08
Speaker 1: for you to pick it up in the middle of
25:09
Speaker 1: the season, especially when the season starts to get tough
25:11
Speaker 1: and things get you know, really difficult, and guys are
25:13
Speaker 1: in and out and people are injured. UM. So yeah,
25:16
Speaker 1: it's it's been a struggle for for the Pacers really
25:20
Speaker 1: from the start um, and I think everyone's just kind
25:23
Speaker 1: of upset at each other because they aren't as good
25:25
Speaker 1: as they were expecting to be. I think mostly, look,
25:29
Speaker 1: the deal is he's a great X as a nose coach,
25:31
Speaker 1: and everybody on that team is kind of vouch for that.
25:33
Speaker 1: They're like they like the X as a nose side
25:34
Speaker 1: of it, it's a bonus. In particular when the first
25:36
Speaker 1: month when they were just crushing, it was real high
25:39
Speaker 1: on how they were playing. Now part of that's because
25:40
Speaker 1: the bonus is usage has gone up, like he gets
25:42
Speaker 1: the ball more and gets more shots and assist, but
25:44
Speaker 1: which helps his bonuses. I think McMillan was probably a
25:47
Speaker 1: casualty of not wanting to pay more money, especially with
25:50
Speaker 1: the economic downturn caused by the pandemic. Like these things
25:52
Speaker 1: are all connected. You have to follow the dots um
25:56
Speaker 1: when it comes to York, and I think the biggest
26:01
Speaker 1: thing to keep in on with your friend is he's
26:03
Speaker 1: really good xces and os, but he never really connected
26:06
Speaker 1: with them. And the NBA you can't just it's not college.
26:11
Speaker 1: You don't get to just barket guys. That's not how
26:13
Speaker 1: it works. The power dynamic is so radically different and
26:16
Speaker 1: you have to adjust for that. And part of it
26:18
Speaker 1: is you're coming from this. Assistants often have this difficulty
26:21
Speaker 1: where there they get to yell at guys because the
26:25
Speaker 1: head coach is the one that manages the relationships, and
26:28
Speaker 1: then they take over and they have to manage the
26:30
Speaker 1: relationships and the XS and os and the media and
26:33
Speaker 1: the conversations with the executives and all of that, and
26:36
Speaker 1: that gets to be a problem. And that's really what
26:39
Speaker 1: comes down to is it's not that he's not a
26:41
Speaker 1: good coach, it's that nobody wants to play for him
26:43
Speaker 1: because they hate him. And that's been the issue. Now
26:46
Speaker 1: McConnell's pushed back on it, so Bonus is pushed back
26:49
Speaker 1: on it, Holidays pushed back on it. There's been some
26:51
Speaker 1: pushback on the reports. It's clear that there are people
26:54
Speaker 1: in the organization like the reporting done on that by
26:57
Speaker 1: Jake Fisher and s I like, he's he's he is,
27:00
Speaker 1: he's reputable, he's reliable. Um, from what I understand, it's
27:04
Speaker 1: it's one of those situations where yeah, like there are
27:06
Speaker 1: guys that think it's that bad. But that's the difference
27:09
Speaker 1: is whenever there are these situations you always say people
27:11
Speaker 1: they're like, yes, it is that bad, and then you
27:13
Speaker 1: have some people are like, oh, it's bad, but it's
27:15
Speaker 1: not that bad. And then you have some people that
27:17
Speaker 1: are like, well, I don't have a problem with it,
27:19
Speaker 1: and like those are the kind of separate situations that
27:21
Speaker 1: have unfolded. I do think though, it makes the Pacers
27:25
Speaker 1: really difficult to back and high leverage situations because they
27:28
Speaker 1: do not have like, you've got to stay together when
27:30
Speaker 1: things get tough in the playoffs, and I don't have
27:33
Speaker 1: any faith that they can do that in a playing tournament,
27:35
Speaker 1: let alone a playoff series. Don't you guys think this
27:38
Speaker 1: line is a trap? Like it feels like everything you
27:41
Speaker 1: just said makes this seem like too good to be true.
27:43
Speaker 1: And I don't get why the bookmakers really haven't moved
27:46
Speaker 1: it much. It's moved maybe a point point in the
27:47
Speaker 1: half since open at three. It's just interesting that people
27:51
Speaker 1: seem like they're coming in heavy on the Hornets and
27:53
Speaker 1: it really hasn't moved that much. On the Pacers set.
27:56
Speaker 1: It went up and then it went up to four,
27:59
Speaker 1: and then it came back down and it would dip
28:00
Speaker 1: down to one and a half. Uh, And that's Uh,
28:04
Speaker 1: that's where it was a little while ago, and now
28:06
Speaker 1: it's back up to two. So it's these playing games
28:08
Speaker 1: actually have bounced all over the place. Like we could
28:10
Speaker 1: talk about that with Celtics Wizards to the Wizards, Like
28:13
Speaker 1: Wizards initially open minus one. Then a bunch of books
28:16
Speaker 1: came out at Celtics minus one, and so the other
28:18
Speaker 1: books follow them and then moved to Celtics minus two,
28:21
Speaker 1: and then there was a move back on the Wizards.
28:22
Speaker 1: Like that's what's been fascinating with these playing games. Nobody
28:26
Speaker 1: knows how to bet it, and so you have you
28:28
Speaker 1: have a lot of line movement coming in that I
28:30
Speaker 1: think has influenced it. I will say this, I think
28:33
Speaker 1: the Hornets, most of the Hornets are gonna look bad
28:36
Speaker 1: in models, right, So like in my whole thesis is
28:39
Speaker 1: they're better built for these one game environments or specific
28:42
Speaker 1: playoff series. Then they are across the regular season no
28:45
Speaker 1: Gordon Hayward, right, And then the thing's just like the
28:48
Speaker 1: Pacers are gonna model better because they had that early
28:51
Speaker 1: surge that helped their like point differential and all their
28:54
Speaker 1: advanced metrics. They're gonna get power rated and they're they're
28:57
Speaker 1: at home so with with fans, so like, there's those factors.
29:00
Speaker 1: To me, I agree that if you look at it,
29:03
Speaker 1: you're like, wait, how does LeVert going out not move this?
29:07
Speaker 1: I think it's mostly looks. The Bonus is gonna play,
29:09
Speaker 1: Brogden's gonna play. They have more talent. The Hornets don't
29:13
Speaker 1: have Gordon Hayward, and the Hornet Felt model is a
29:16
Speaker 1: very good team. I like the Hornets in specific matchups
29:20
Speaker 1: very well. Um. And that's one of the reasons why
29:22
Speaker 1: I think this line is produced the way house Benn
29:25
Speaker 1: the grand Oh god, uh uh, I bet Matt the
29:33
Speaker 1: I I didn't bet you. I bet Comma that more
29:37
Speaker 1: Comma the Lakers at plus four fifty when they were
29:41
Speaker 1: basically at their lowest point late in the season. You
29:44
Speaker 1: had an article on Action Network network dot com talking
29:46
Speaker 1: about when to bet the Lakers for the NBA title.
29:53
Speaker 1: Put that in context of the playing game against the Warriors.
29:59
Speaker 1: So my argument was go ahead and wait. Um. I
30:02
Speaker 1: reached out to bookmakers and actually asked them how much
30:06
Speaker 1: of the are the Lakers odds going to move if
30:08
Speaker 1: they make it out of the play in and they
30:10
Speaker 1: said not much. It's already factored in like most things
30:14
Speaker 1: with lines. The bookmakers are ahead of you. They already
30:18
Speaker 1: when the when the Lakers, basically, when the Blazers beat
30:22
Speaker 1: the Lakers a few weeks ago. That put into motion
30:25
Speaker 1: a series of events where the Lakers were likely to
30:27
Speaker 1: wind up a seventh. They were projected there increasingly as
30:31
Speaker 1: as the weeks went on, and the bookmakers obviously knew that,
30:35
Speaker 1: and so they knew that there was they had to
30:36
Speaker 1: factor in the inherent risk that the Lakers could lose
30:39
Speaker 1: twice and be bounced, and so that's already priced in.
30:43
Speaker 1: But the difference is they're expecting them to win anyway.
30:46
Speaker 1: Their implied probability is extremely high. So after the play
30:50
Speaker 1: in tournament, those numbers are not going to go down
30:52
Speaker 1: much like there's not an expectation of them. There's a
30:55
Speaker 1: five hundreds that's floating out there, between four hundred and
30:58
Speaker 1: five hundreds where you can find it at places. I
31:01
Speaker 1: don't expect it to dip any depending on what book
31:03
Speaker 1: you use, any further than like three fifty. I don't
31:05
Speaker 1: think it'll go any lower than that after the plan
31:08
Speaker 1: if at all. Like some boatmakers were like, we're not
31:10
Speaker 1: gonna move it. It's that's what we we expect them
31:13
Speaker 1: to win. They're staying there, so you're still gonna get
31:15
Speaker 1: good value that My argument was wait till after the
31:17
Speaker 1: play in and that way you don't get hit with UH.
31:20
Speaker 1: Steph goes off for forty five contagious Caldwell Pope misses
31:24
Speaker 1: eight threes, and then the following game, Lebron tweaks his
31:27
Speaker 1: ankle and John Moran hits a buzzer beater like these
31:31
Speaker 1: two game environments. That's why Lebron was so mad is
31:34
Speaker 1: he knows, like, if you don't have it one night,
31:37
Speaker 1: if it's just like the shots aren't falling and the
31:39
Speaker 1: other teams rolling, that's it. You're going home. That's why
31:42
Speaker 1: he was so mad about it. And so from my perspective, UM,
31:46
Speaker 1: I think the best values to wait until after the
31:48
Speaker 1: play tournament. They will win. I feel confident they're gonna win.
31:50
Speaker 1: They're gonna win one of them, come hell or high
31:53
Speaker 1: water or whatever else has to happen. And after that,
31:56
Speaker 1: I think you can definitely still get a really good
31:59
Speaker 1: price on the Laker is to win UH the Western
32:02
Speaker 1: Conference title and to make the playoffs. Now never in mind,
32:04
Speaker 1: like I already had the Lakers about a million ways
32:06
Speaker 1: from throughout the season from preseason especially, I have Lakers
32:09
Speaker 1: Like I've added Lakers Nets finals matchups throughout the season
32:13
Speaker 1: at various prices. So like, I'm not you know that
32:16
Speaker 1: that's something to consider, but I do think that there's
32:20
Speaker 1: um a significant value in waiting to make sure you
32:23
Speaker 1: don't get burned by this play in tournament with Lebron
32:26
Speaker 1: on a bad angle in a really weird season. And
32:29
Speaker 1: before I get to my six years question the league,
32:31
Speaker 1: have you ever heard of a seven or eight seed
32:34
Speaker 1: being favored over a one or two seed that we
32:36
Speaker 1: might see with the Lakers? Like is this are we
32:37
Speaker 1: seeing history right now? Yeah? It's kind of wild, right,
32:40
Speaker 1: especially because of all the things that that Matt was saying.
32:42
Speaker 1: I feel like there's there's a lot of people who
32:44
Speaker 1: think that Lebron's just gonna somehow. We've seen a be
32:48
Speaker 1: superhuman most of his career, if not all of his career, right,
32:51
Speaker 1: but like he clearly he what they played the Pelicans
32:55
Speaker 1: in the final game, he does that spin move towards
32:57
Speaker 1: the end and he kind of got up and he
32:59
Speaker 1: was limping, and I think everyone was like, oh Jesus,
33:01
Speaker 1: here we go again. Um, So yeah, I think it
33:04
Speaker 1: is kind of interesting that everyone just assumes that the Lakers,
33:07
Speaker 1: even if they win against the Warriors and have a
33:11
Speaker 1: little bit of rest time, should be for some reason
33:14
Speaker 1: favored against the Sons, who are really really good team.
33:18
Speaker 1: It'll be a great series, I think, and I think
33:20
Speaker 1: the Lakers have a very good chance at winning. I
33:21
Speaker 1: think they have a good chance at beating any team
33:24
Speaker 1: if they're healthy, but they're not so. I think there's
33:26
Speaker 1: this perception that the Lakers will just somehow manage to
33:29
Speaker 1: get healthy magically. Um, and that's not necessarily going to
33:32
Speaker 1: be the case. I think there we have to look
33:35
Speaker 1: at them as a different team. They are. They have
33:38
Speaker 1: a lot of the same players, they have all the
33:39
Speaker 1: experience and all of those things, but Lebron is not
33:42
Speaker 1: the same version of himself that he has been in
33:45
Speaker 1: the past, and I think that fundamentally changes how we
33:48
Speaker 1: look at this team. I still think that the Lakers
33:51
Speaker 1: have the talent to make the finals. Uh, but it's
33:55
Speaker 1: not as a foregone conclusion as people are making it
33:57
Speaker 1: seem like, oh r, I p to the Sons, Uh,
34:00
Speaker 1: they have to play the Lakers in in, you know,
34:01
Speaker 1: the first round. I think the Suns are looking at it, like,
34:04
Speaker 1: bring it on. You're telling me Chris Paul doesn't one
34:06
Speaker 1: of the lebron James you know in the playoffs, like
34:10
Speaker 1: they don't seem to be afraid. They're not, they don't
34:12
Speaker 1: seem to be ducking anyone. They're like, hey, if we
34:14
Speaker 1: if we end U playing them, then we're gonna play them,
34:16
Speaker 1: and whoever wins wins. So we talked about it last week.
34:20
Speaker 1: I couldn't get over that. I thought there was just
34:21
Speaker 1: a ton of value in the Sixers, And I'm wondering
34:24
Speaker 1: where your guys dow and approaches to them this playoffs.
34:26
Speaker 1: Where we talked last week, there plus four hundred East,
34:29
Speaker 1: Now they're down to plus three hundred. There plus a
34:31
Speaker 1: thousand to win the NBA Championship. Now they're down to
34:33
Speaker 1: plus seven hundred. A lot of books. So I'm just wondering.
34:36
Speaker 1: Obviously people are coming in on the Sixers. Now you
34:39
Speaker 1: guys actually view this team with you know, we knowing
34:41
Speaker 1: what we know about him. Bid is he the kind
34:43
Speaker 1: of guy that he can really carry this team through
34:45
Speaker 1: the playoffs and they're gonna be one of these teams
34:46
Speaker 1: that can actually make a trip to the finals. I
34:50
Speaker 1: would bet. Now I'll tell you that right now. Um So,
34:53
Speaker 1: a lot of it comes down to and be this
34:57
Speaker 1: season was literally the third US mid rain shooter in
35:01
Speaker 1: the entire NBA. Those are difficult shots to make, and
35:04
Speaker 1: he's done it consistently throughout the entire season. He's a
35:07
Speaker 1: volume mid rain shooter. Like, that's a lot of it.
35:09
Speaker 1: The bigger problem, honestly, is that he's got a turnover
35:12
Speaker 1: rate when doubled through the course of a season. As
35:16
Speaker 1: they get used to it, Like there are certain matchups
35:18
Speaker 1: I think he's just gonna wreck, Like he'll just wreck
35:21
Speaker 1: certain matchups. And honestly, like one of the reasons I
35:24
Speaker 1: think they're odd shorten was when they started to lock
35:26
Speaker 1: up that one seed because they avoid that Bucks Nets
35:28
Speaker 1: second round slug fest that we're gonna see and the
35:32
Speaker 1: team that comes out of that may be exhausted. Like
35:34
Speaker 1: there are like writean Palmer, our colleague that joins us
35:38
Speaker 1: on the Action Network NBA podcast. He one of his
35:41
Speaker 1: like going more paradigms going into these playoffs is that
35:47
Speaker 1: the Nets and Bucks winner is gonna be exhausted and
35:50
Speaker 1: the Sixers are gonna be able to beat up on him.
35:52
Speaker 1: My concern is that I think you need pull up shooting.
35:55
Speaker 1: I think you need guys that when it gets into
35:57
Speaker 1: crunch time you can go to and be like, that
35:59
Speaker 1: guy's gonna have to get you a bucket off the bounce.
36:02
Speaker 1: Tobias Harris is like, you're maybe your second or third
36:06
Speaker 1: option there. It's not gonna be Ben. I love Ben.
36:08
Speaker 1: I think Ben Simmons should be defensive Player of the Year.
36:11
Speaker 1: I bet him too. He's not gonna win, but I
36:13
Speaker 1: think he's phenomenal. I think he's underrated. I also think
36:15
Speaker 1: he's taken a step back with how the team has evolved,
36:18
Speaker 1: and I wonder what that means for his future. It's
36:20
Speaker 1: not gonna be Seth Curry says, the spot up shooter.
36:22
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be Danny Green. Same deal, Shake Milton
36:25
Speaker 1: like I like shake. I like shake a lot tyres Maxie.
36:28
Speaker 1: I like those guys a lot. That's not who I
36:29
Speaker 1: want taking shots that they're trading buckets late down the
36:32
Speaker 1: stretch versus Drew Holiday, Chris Middleton. Not to mention Janice
36:37
Speaker 1: U or Katie Kyrie Harden, Like that gets very difficult.
36:43
Speaker 1: The Sixers have built their their season success on defense
36:47
Speaker 1: and Beid and spot up three point shooting, which is
36:50
Speaker 1: a pretty good model if MBI was a little bit
36:52
Speaker 1: better pass her, but he's not, and so when they
36:55
Speaker 1: start to run up against schemes that are specifically designed
36:58
Speaker 1: to mess with him, I have concerns about their ability
37:01
Speaker 1: to get through. I don't think it's a bad bet.
37:03
Speaker 1: They are a very good overall team, Like if you're
37:05
Speaker 1: just betting, like I want to bet on like the
37:07
Speaker 1: strongest team there are number one in the East for
37:09
Speaker 1: a reason. They've been great. They're on off metrics with
37:13
Speaker 1: embat or the best, like they're better than Yoga is.
37:15
Speaker 1: They're better. The Sixers are better within beat on court
37:18
Speaker 1: than the Nuggets are when Yoga is on the court,
37:20
Speaker 1: which is pretty impressive considering Yoga is gonna win M
37:22
Speaker 1: v P. I just don't know if the playoffs are
37:25
Speaker 1: gonna are gonna be the same deal. Well, it's so
37:27
Speaker 1: interesting with the Sixers, and it's interesting, you know the Sixers,
37:31
Speaker 1: And what's interesting Darryl Morey, who you know, spent so
37:35
Speaker 1: many years reimagining what offenses look like in UH Houston
37:42
Speaker 1: and living and dying by the three point shot, the
37:46
Speaker 1: efficiency of making a shot that's worth three verse two.
37:49
Speaker 1: All of a sudden he's got this team because it's
37:52
Speaker 1: built around Embiad that is entirely different offensively, and they've
37:56
Speaker 1: been incredibly effective in a a really powerful team team offensively,
38:01
Speaker 1: and it's reflective of what has happened this entire year.
38:05
Speaker 1: Greatest season in two point shooting history in the NBA,
38:10
Speaker 1: greatest three point shooting season, greatest foul shooting season. Two questions,
38:20
Speaker 1: is now the time to start fading high powered offenses,
38:26
Speaker 1: betting on against high totals and believing that the best
38:31
Speaker 1: team defensively has the best chance to win the NBA
38:36
Speaker 1: playoffs to win the title. Matt, you start two questions,
38:41
Speaker 1: answer them both, please. I think for me, specifically, you
38:47
Speaker 1: have to go with it based off of matchups. I
38:49
Speaker 1: think the NBA playoffs are all about matchups. I think
38:52
Speaker 1: it's not just player versus player, which is how we've
38:55
Speaker 1: traditionally thought of it. It's what can you do? Like
38:58
Speaker 1: I've started to reimagine deefen it this way. It's not
39:00
Speaker 1: about how good your defense is. That's why Utah, it's
39:03
Speaker 1: been a top five defense every single season the last
39:05
Speaker 1: five years, hasn't made the conference finals. It's not about
39:09
Speaker 1: how good your defense is. Which is why Milwaukee, the
39:11
Speaker 1: best defense in the league the last two seasons, has
39:13
Speaker 1: only made the conference finals once and hasn't made the
39:15
Speaker 1: finals despite all their firepower. It's can you solve the
39:19
Speaker 1: defensive problem in front of you? It's when presented with
39:24
Speaker 1: these different situations from series to series, can you adapt? Right?
39:28
Speaker 1: The Lakers can adapt their physical They can play eight
39:31
Speaker 1: at five, they can switch, they can hedge, they can
39:34
Speaker 1: blitz you, they can trap you. They can drop and
39:36
Speaker 1: make and say make We're gonna make you make jump
39:38
Speaker 1: shots that. They can do whatever they need to. The
39:41
Speaker 1: nets surprisingly actually profile this way. But if you're asking me,
39:45
Speaker 1: like with all these offenses, is it across the board
39:48
Speaker 1: gonna be lower? I think the numbers are gonna reflect
39:50
Speaker 1: for that because they expect it to be tougher. I
39:54
Speaker 1: think your numbers are, like the totals are gonna go down,
39:57
Speaker 1: it's gonna be tighter. I think in general, it's more
40:00
Speaker 1: about finding situations where you know what this team performs
40:03
Speaker 1: really well versus what that team does and they can't
40:06
Speaker 1: do anything else. Like I think Portland and Denver is
40:10
Speaker 1: a good situation here to look at this. Portland can't
40:13
Speaker 1: play anything but drop that's what they do, is like
40:15
Speaker 1: they just dropping pick and roll situations. Okay, but one
40:19
Speaker 1: of the things that they do is they stay home
40:20
Speaker 1: on shooters. The Nuggets don't have a pick and roll creator.
40:23
Speaker 1: Now that Jamal Murray's out Wilbarton's banged up, they don't
40:26
Speaker 1: have one. So that's a series I'm probably gonna be
40:29
Speaker 1: looking at unders, But other ones, I think I'm probably
40:32
Speaker 1: gonna be looking for overs, especially like I think Miami
40:36
Speaker 1: Milwaukee is a series I'm probably gonna be a leaning
40:38
Speaker 1: towards the over to start with, based off of how
40:42
Speaker 1: those two teams can attack one another. Moak, you know
40:46
Speaker 1: what this means? What's that? Take it back to the beginning.
40:51
Speaker 1: The New York Knickerbockers are shaping up as a value
40:57
Speaker 1: play to win the NBA title because of their ferocious
41:01
Speaker 1: defense and their underrated offense. I would love, love, love
41:08
Speaker 1: to believe that that is true. But as much as
41:12
Speaker 1: I've watched this team, I think Matt made a really
41:15
Speaker 1: good point about matchups right. They unfortunately don't have uh
41:22
Speaker 1: uh Mitchell Robinson playing center. And as great as the
41:25
Speaker 1: defense has still been and as fantastic as Neurone's Noel
41:29
Speaker 1: has been. He's really undersized, right, So if they end
41:32
Speaker 1: up let's say they get out of the you know,
41:34
Speaker 1: first round, and they play the Sixers. As as much
41:37
Speaker 1: as I think that the Knicks are a great team,
41:39
Speaker 1: and if they'll fight as hard as you possibly can
41:42
Speaker 1: and take their pound of flesh, as people love to
41:44
Speaker 1: say that they're just undersized, like indeed, can just bully
41:48
Speaker 1: them down low. I mean, what are you gonna throw
41:50
Speaker 1: Todd Gibson and Neurone's no while on him, like he's
41:53
Speaker 1: just gonna feast all day. So, um, the defense, I
41:56
Speaker 1: think we'll definitely carry the Knicks past the first round.
42:00
Speaker 1: I feel very confident in that I think we match
42:02
Speaker 1: up well with a team like Atlanta. Um. But I
42:06
Speaker 1: don't think that just because they have a great defense
42:09
Speaker 1: all season that they will be able to somehow that'll
42:14
Speaker 1: mask the fact that that you know, nearls Well just
42:16
Speaker 1: makes amazing plays, amazing blocks, right, But like you could
42:21
Speaker 1: just just beat him up, right, I would just absolutely
42:23
Speaker 1: beat him up down low, and that that's kind of
42:24
Speaker 1: what I'm worried about with him now. If somehow or
42:27
Speaker 1: another Mitchell Robinson can come back in the middle of
42:30
Speaker 1: the playoffs and maybe kind of give them a little
42:33
Speaker 1: bit of a boost, and you know, as a backup center,
42:37
Speaker 1: um coming off injury, maybe maybe I'm not gonna I'm
42:40
Speaker 1: not gonna you know, downplay my own team here. But
42:44
Speaker 1: but but I don't see that being the case because
42:46
Speaker 1: I just don't think that they match up well with
42:48
Speaker 1: teams that have big centers that can really bruise them
42:50
Speaker 1: down load. That's what I don't get though. Like the
42:56
Speaker 1: sixth My whole Sixers point is, like you talked about there,
43:00
Speaker 1: to get beat up. The Bucks and Nets are gonna
43:01
Speaker 1: be battling and they're gonna come play the Sixers at home.
43:04
Speaker 1: So the Sixers say they win Game one against either
43:06
Speaker 1: those teams, what do you make that serious prices? If
43:08
Speaker 1: it's the Net of the Bucks, aren't you like there
43:10
Speaker 1: are you finding yourself an amazing hedge position? Even if
43:13
Speaker 1: you take the Sixers now plus three hundred, where no
43:16
Speaker 1: matter what Sixers win Game one, they got home court,
43:19
Speaker 1: they're gonna become a favorite either even if they're playing
43:21
Speaker 1: the Nets or the Books. Yeah, I think that's a
43:24
Speaker 1: good I think that's actually really that's a really good
43:26
Speaker 1: position to take, right because I will say this, if
43:29
Speaker 1: the Sixers win game one and it's the Nets. I
43:31
Speaker 1: think they're still dogs. I think the Sixers are still dogs.
43:34
Speaker 1: I think if the Box lose game one, then this
43:38
Speaker 1: probably goes from like the Box is a slight dog
43:40
Speaker 1: to Boxes a more significant dog after game one and
43:43
Speaker 1: maybe that's when you can hedge. Um. I think that
43:46
Speaker 1: that's like probably the best spot. The Nets are gonna
43:48
Speaker 1: be hard, like they'd have to go go down oh
43:50
Speaker 1: two in order to get to be that. I think
43:52
Speaker 1: the dog the number you're gonna want to hedge. It's like,
43:55
Speaker 1: that's really the now this is the counter that though,
43:57
Speaker 1: is You're like, well, look, if it's the Nets, I'm
43:59
Speaker 1: good any way. Because their center options are DeAndre Jordan's
44:03
Speaker 1: and Claxton, and Claxton's is much like Noel great switch
44:06
Speaker 1: defender can't handle and beat in the post. Jordan is
44:09
Speaker 1: more physical, but the Nets overall defense it does have
44:12
Speaker 1: some leaky spots in it, so even if m Bead
44:15
Speaker 1: struggles a little bit with those doubles, they can scheme
44:18
Speaker 1: out ways for him to pass out of it and
44:20
Speaker 1: theyke another pass and then be able to hit wide
44:22
Speaker 1: open shooters on the other side. Like that's where the
44:24
Speaker 1: Nets struggle, Like I can give you the argument there,
44:27
Speaker 1: but that's a pretty decent matchup. I think Milwaukee honestly
44:29
Speaker 1: is like the scarier matchup for them. Like everyone's out
44:31
Speaker 1: on Milwaukee and the Bucks I think are a much
44:34
Speaker 1: scarier matchup. They got Brook Lopez, who's a mountain of
44:37
Speaker 1: a man. That dude is huge, and they will still
44:39
Speaker 1: send doubles and he's gonna get his. But the question
44:42
Speaker 1: is can you beat the overall firepower what Milwaukee brings,
44:45
Speaker 1: and like that's a different question. That's what's really fascinating
44:47
Speaker 1: is that is that Nets Bucks one. I don't know
44:50
Speaker 1: where to go with it. I really don't. I'm gonna
44:53
Speaker 1: I'm gonna once those two teams get up to oh
44:54
Speaker 1: and I don't have to worry about them getting upset.
44:56
Speaker 1: I'm transitioning and just gonna be doing deep dives on
44:58
Speaker 1: Nets Bucks to try and figure the went out. But
45:01
Speaker 1: in the in the conference finals, the nets of this
45:03
Speaker 1: heavy favorites, like I would probably go like the other
45:06
Speaker 1: way where it's like the nets of the favorite in
45:08
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference. I think you're gonna give a good
45:10
Speaker 1: price on the Sixers to win that series if they're
45:13
Speaker 1: in the Eastern Conference finals. If it's Net sixers, alright,
45:16
Speaker 1: time for rapid Fire. Here's what I want, no explanation.
45:21
Speaker 1: Each of you give me your finals matchup, Simon your first.
45:27
Speaker 1: This feels like it's pretty easy. It feels like everyone's
45:30
Speaker 1: ever thinking it Sixers, Clippers, block it up. It feels
45:33
Speaker 1: like that's what it's been destined to be all season.
45:35
Speaker 1: That's what it's gonna have, being so Sixers and Clippers
45:38
Speaker 1: a week. I'm gonna say Lakers Bucks, Matt Moore Clippers Nets. Wow.
45:49
Speaker 1: It's crazy that we're all going with different matchups. I'm
45:55
Speaker 1: going with Clippers Bucks. Wow. Omen that is insane. This
46:02
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46:08
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46:37
Speaker 1: Until next time, hepe you