Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Trump Tweets Markets Crash

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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Trump Tweets Markets Crash · AG Bull

• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: What a week, what a week, what a week.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy Grossoffi, Ag Bull Media, Ag Bull Podcast.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: We we're gonna bring him on here in a second.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: The one and only Mr.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: Jim Wiesmeyer.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking about Wiesmeyer's perspectives, and this is gonna be a heck of a show.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: Now, before we start, I'd just like to ask you one more time like, subscribe.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: The show is free.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: Send it to friends.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: How this day started is not how it ended.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: Let's bring him in the show, Mr.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: Jim Wiesmeyer.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: He's just doing hair and makeup.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: They say he's done.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: He looks beautiful.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: As they say, a face for radio.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Here we go.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_01: I saw you taking a sip of your pop.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'm like, I'll give him a little more sip.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I was at a crop, I was at a crop insurance agents meeting in Savannah, Georgia, beautiful place.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: And more than a few of the agents said they're now listening or or watching this program.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: And some of them knew you, Tommy.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: So I think we're getting around now.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: They probably saw my picture at the post office.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: We got a heck of a show.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, I'll click the buttons, you be the brains, I'll be the uh I'll be the little clicker that could.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: I do have a couple, uh I got some sounds loaded up, some new stuff here.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: But let's start with let's look at here.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_01: Should we start with that the the government's shutting down?
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, let's start with that.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_01: And why is Chuck Schumer back there?
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: Every day gets better for us.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: What's that all about?
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's the spin by both political parties.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Now he's saying Chuck Schumer is saying, and the Democrats believe that they're winning this shutdown debate.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: But you can see in that picture, that's his spin.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: But then the Republican spin is by you not voting in the Senate, the Senate Democrats, they need eight of those votes, by the way.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: They've got three or four by now.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: But you're you're hurting the military on pay and things like that.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: And so there's your spin on that one.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: And usually I'm asked, when is this gonna end?
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Both sides, Tommy, are dug in, and that means later rather than sooner.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: And we've already seen some impacts.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: There was no October crop production report or the WASDI report on October the 9th.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: There's no export sales reports on Thursday.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: From a trading perspective, we we didn't have the commitments of traders report, and that's an important one that people dissect.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: From a farmer perspective, we've had no farmer uh program payments.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: That's the ARC and the uh PLC, you know, you know, payments for 2024 crop.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: But the big one is$1.8 billion is ready to be paid out for the conservation reserve program.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: And then the SDRP.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_01: I got that right here.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: This one.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, do the we've got two on them because a lot of uh listeners to this podcast have sent me emails about this.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now let's go through that one because the they've they're they're in the pro they paid out five billion, has already been paid out, but their program funding is a little over 16 billion dollars.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I've I've detailed the 2023 loss and 2024 loss.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Now, most of the farmers are have been asking me, well, what about stage two?
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the next uh uh uh chart, Tommy.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, that was supposed to come out this week, but with the government down, that's being held off.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: So it'll eventually once they come back, which we don't know, probably by the end of this month, I would say that they should be back.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna get the stage two payment.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, go back to the first one.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: What farmers really want is look right in the middle.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: The initial payment factor was at 35% for the for the disaster assistance program.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that was pretty low.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: Top-up payments are anticipated following stage two.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I'd uh they could make them by the end of this calendar year, but I think the top-up payments, and I have no idea what they'll be, maybe 55-60 percent, from 35 to 55, 60 percent.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: I hope they're higher.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: They'll probably be paid either late this year or I think more likely in 2026.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: And that should answer a lot of the questions I'm getting on this.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: The SDRP stage two is going to be announced when USDA comes back, and that's gonna take some time to implement, and then USDA has to see how much is paid out under stage two before they can calculate a top-up payment for the SDRP beyond the 35% level that has already been paid.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: And uh speculation only, it could be in the 55 to 60 percent area, but they've got a chunk of uh funds to uh use that 16.09 billion dollars, of which only 5 billion has been paid out.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: So that's really SDRP, Tommy.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: And then the other aspects of the government shutdown, it's gonna delay the renewable fuel standard program announcements uh well into November, if not December.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: And that's if you recall, that's EPA has to make a decision on the small refinery reallocations, what percentage basis will be reallocated.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: So that's gonna be held off, and also important for oil seeds and uh corn if it's an eligible commodity under the 45Z program.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: IRS they furlough around 50 percent of the in internal revenue service employees, so everything's being held off.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna delay some of these important farmer-related uh uh you know programs by months, probably.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, and and it's gonna be, and here's the big one for farmers you know listening it's gonna delay the U.S.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: farmer aid program that's part of the ongoing China trade war now that we can you know get into the U.S.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: farmer aid.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: And uh just to let folks, yeah, there it is right there.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: USDA farmer aid coming, but what and when?
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, that's the key.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Now we know through all the speculation this week on this program, Tommy.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think it'll be between 12.5 billion to 15 you know billion dollars.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't want to get too wonky now as far as where they're finding the money.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be a combination of commodity credit corporation CCC money, four to five billion left in that.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: And also they have creative lawyers in any in any administration, Democrat or Republican, and they're good.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: They they they there's billions of dollars floating around in government all the time.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: If you need money, you go to the Trump cash machine right here, Department of the Treasury.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I don't think that they'll have an issue.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now, here's another connection with the getting Congress back.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: Okay the agriculture appropriations bill will be one of the first bills that they vote on, and that will likely include a replenishment to of funding for the Commodity Credit Corporation up to their current uh maximum of$30 billion.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: So watch for that.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: That'll help fund uh this and other programs.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: And then later on this year, calendar year, Senator Chuck Grassley, Republican from Iowa, Holvin, Republican from North Dakota, has more than signaled that Congress is gonna attempt another uh economic aid bill, like they did last year, if you recall, December 21st, they passed$10 billion in economic aid and almost$21 billion in disaster aid.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: So that's gonna wait until after you they come back.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now, a lot of emails I get also on whenever the trade-related aid program is announced by USDA, again, it'll take the government coming back because that's what USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said at the at the cabinet meeting this week.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: What commodities are going to be included, and how are they gonna base the payment?
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: Now, I went back and looked at the 2018 trade a China trade war payment, and I couldn't believe it.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: They paid it on actual production in 2018.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: I think that was a stupid approach because they should base it on yield on APH, just in history, production history.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: But why do I say that?
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_00: If you had a bad crop this year and they base it on actual production, well, you're hurt both ways, so they should base it on APH, but we're gonna see.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's one of the things I'm gonna look out for.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now let's go through some of the the it's it's obvious that soybeans have been the most affected.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: You saw that in the marketplace today.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: And if we could start running those charts, Tommy, okay, on on uh metals chart later.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: Oh well, let's bring up the metals chart first because there's breaking, there was breaking news this morning.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: China came out, uh yeah, uh actually overnight their time and said they were gonna put even significant constraints on the exports of their precious metal, you know, minerals.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that was big because it got and I knew it would get President Trump more than upset.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: He came out, yes, and and he came out on true social and said, not a good way to go, that they're mulling a big massive increase in tariffs on China products, and he pulled back participating in a meeting with Xi Jinping, China's leader, at the end of this month or early November.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what tanked early in the morning.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's that's what uh yeah, you know, tanked it.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: So so now it really what's happening is both both leaders, Trump and Xi Jinping, are flexing their muscles.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, I think Xi Jinping was test is testing Trump, but this thing can get pretty negative because precious minerals are so important in a potpourri of products, uh cell phones, uh defense uh equipment, cars.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: So that could that that'll affect the global economy if it if it lasts very long.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: So right now we have a battle of the Titan countries, the U.S.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: and China, and that's not good for U.S.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: agriculture because American Soybean Association came out in a statement and said they're they are more than concerned about this because they were hoping that Xi Jinping and Trump would indeed uh meet uh the last day of October and the first days of November at the Aegean meeting in South Korea.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that could still happen, but not right now.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: So that's that's where we're at geopolitically.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: They're they're firing shots at uh at each other.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: But so that then that makes the coming China trade-related aid program even more important.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_00: And now we can go through some of the commodities that's going to be impacted by that trade aid, Tommy, with the zero purchases on uh yes.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: You can see from this chart.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: Uh look at the the bottom, the blue pre on the left-hand side.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's what China had been buying from the U.S.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: even in January, but it used to be a lot higher, and we'll have that chart later on.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: But look at it's gone to zero.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: Zero.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: China has over 50% of all U.S.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: soybean exports before.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: Argentina recently sold them two and a half million tons of soybeans.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_00: And in the usual time frame that we sell our beans to them, and then go to the next one.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, that that shows you vividly.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, look at the far right, zero purchases, zero is not a good number here, okay.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: And look at 2018 and 2019, that was the time of the last US China tariff war, and you can see the uh impacts here.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, that's that's and be and earlier this week, I talked to a one of my best China watcher sources, and he said, until the Brazilian new crop comes on, they're just planting it right now, but until the new crop comes on next year, he told me China needs about seven to eight million metric tons of soybeans.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: Now, does that mean they would have come to us?
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: Or they have 25 million tons of soybeans in reserve.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: So they can they can last until the new crop beans come on board after harvest in Brazil, uh, February, March time frame next uh year.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: It was expected prior to this you know fisticuffs you know this morning between Xi Jinping and Trump that that China was going to make a token buy of uh three to five million metric tons of U.S.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: soybeans at this at this meeting they were gonna have.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: Well, now that's up in the air.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: So we know soybeans is important, China.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: And let's go through some of the other crops, Tommy.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh sorghum.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: I've said this on the air before, but now this is a graphic that shows it.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: Look at again, look at the far right.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: We're down over uh about 2.3 million metric tons.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: Now, for sorghum, that's why their cash prices are just sinking.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: And then if that continues, that's gonna be more corn acres in 2026.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_00: So that's an impact on corn.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: No one can tell me because you know, we have record corn exports this year.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: That doesn't mean they shouldn't get aid because they're being impacted.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: They're being impacted by the China situation because they're they're gonna get more plantings, which already happened this spring.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: You probably have three to five million more acres of corn planted as a result of farmers seeing that a US-China trade war was brewing again.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: So that's sorghum, okay?
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that was a dramatic decline.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: Almost two billion dollar differences in in exports to sorghum.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: Now they love our sorghum because of what they call bijju beer, okay.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I've drank it, I've drunk it over.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: What's it taste like?
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: Ain't good.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's very good.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I didn't mind it.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, I don't mind anything.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: I drink agriculture's crops.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: I love it.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, I want to give all our listeners a big thank you and tell you this episode with Tommy Grossaffi and Jim Weissmeyer Weismeyer is heavy, heavy, heavy on charts.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: And so if you're listening on Spotify, Apple, any of that stuff, we love you.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_01: But you might want to head over to the YouTube channel, click like and subscribe because Mr.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_01: Jim sent us a lot of charts and we loaded up a lot of charts.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: And this is before all heck broke loose.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_01: But upon recording this right now on Friday afternoon, the Dow Jones is down 750 and the NASDAQ's down 750.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_01: By the time we get this uploaded in an hour or two, it'd be interesting to see where the markets close.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: It'd be interesting to see where the markets open on Sunday.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: Now back to the show.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: And we'll explain what the charts mean too, because I just said$1.8 billion downturn in U.S.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: sorghum exports to China, and that that that's that's an impact.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: And that's why sorghum or Milo, whatever you want to call it, they better be part of this payment.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the next one is cotton, and you can see again in recent years, China generally imported between two and five million bales annually of U.S.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: cotton.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: But as the chart shows, that's very, very minimal.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: So the the loss of the Chinese market is a key factor, is why we have cotton prices in the mid-60s.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: They're probably lower today.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't look.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: And and before, when China imported three to five million bales of U.S.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: cotton, cotton futures averaged about 90 cents.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: So there's your impact from the mid-60s to 90 cents.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: That means cotton better get a trade-related aid payment.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: And again, I'll say even some farm media says this will be a bailout payment.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: Oh my goodness, it's not a bailout.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: This won't even come close.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: You've heard people say that.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, I've seen it, I've seen it in print.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: It just it's not a bailout, they're not going to be made whole, and it's an insult.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: It's an insult to uh say that.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: Now, then we have the next Debbie like saying if you and I lost 10 pounds, we were anorexic.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_00: My doctor, my doctor gave me some a uh artificial intelligence pictures of me if I lost 40 to 50 pounds.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: He said, showed them to me.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: He said, Did your hair grow back?
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: I'm telling you, I don't I look hot.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_00: Well, no, he did one of them.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: He made me bald, but I I mean I'm I I could go to Hollywood after I'm like that again.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: But I digress.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: We digress is right, but you know what?
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: The craziness of today, we need a good chuckle.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: That made me laugh.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I mean production, my friend.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: That's a yeah.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: What a lot of a lot of writers and analysts are not pointing out is look at look at the increase in Brazilian and actually Argentina production since the last US China trade war.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_00: Look at Brazil.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's it's in that 175 million metric ton area where it had been, let's see, right about what 120 million, you know.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_00: So they got a lot more soybeans to sell in Brazil.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: So it's just not a trade thing.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: This is a production angle in Brazil.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_00: That that's my point that you see it graphically, but you can hear it too.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: And that was from the American Soybean Association.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: Oh boy, I've been talking to my friends on the soybean association.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: They've been they are really pulling hard for folks out there.
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and this is why.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go through again.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_00: You would have to you'll see this, but monthly U.S.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_00: soybean exports versus exports to China.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: It's just a sad tale from the you know, the last year through August this year.
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's L Zero at the end now, but you can see how this is dramatically impacting the soybean export situation.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's that one.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: Then you can go through monthly Brazil soybean exports versus exports to China, and you can see vividly, Tommy, how Brazil is overtaking that market.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: And so it's uh China's share of United States and Brazil soybean exports.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: Again, Brazil now has a 73% market share, where uh the US prior to this uh plummeting had about 52 percent.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: So you can see where we used to have a much higher figure, a six.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_00: We are now what's the long-term implications?
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: Because you know, you with with the two leading powers in the world, U.S.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: and China, I I think this is going to go on for certain years.
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_00: This means that the so U.S.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: soybean sector has to uh do a combination, they have to find newer markets.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I know it's not enough to replace the Chinese market, maybe half of it that they lost.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_00: But this is why we've increased soybean processing facilities in order to get for renewable diesel, biodiesel, to do the uh the renewable fuel standard program.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: And whenever they get the 45Z sustainable aviation fuel program going, this is the longer-term development to keep uh the soybean sector not at the mercy of China buy.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_00: So there's both short-term and longer-term developments here.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_00: And uh again, the other chart would be total soybean exports by the United States and Brazil, and and you can see Brazil is now the by far the leading exporter of uh of soybeans.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_00: Where in 2011 the US bested Brazil, not by much, but they did in 2012.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_00: That was a glory year in U.S.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: agriculture, the nirvana.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: We had a lot more soybean exports to the world than Brazil did.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: But each year after that, Brazil increased relative to the United States.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: So this is why prior at the cabinet meeting before you had the blow-up uh between China and the US, President Trump said he was going to speak to Xi Jinping about buying U.S.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: soybeans and uh and a goodly amount, he said.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't specify it.
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_00: Goodly, then a goodly amount, yeah.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: And then huge, huge, as as Trump would say.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: But this is why it just fell apart.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_00: Now that doesn't mean they can pick up the peace, they can pick up the pieces.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_00: I've seen this one, they're try probably penetrating on this one, and but that's where we're at.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: They're just flexing their muscles ahead of a the uh possible meeting if it comes uh about this year.
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_01: So that's what I told clients today.
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_01: You know, folks who had sold soybeans off the combine and wanted to buy them back.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_01: I said, You got beans down 20.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_01: Sure, it looks like the world's ending today.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_01: That that's today.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: Where are we gonna be if South America has a drought in a few months, Jim?
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_00: That's true.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I was surprised it didn't go down more today.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: So that you soybeans, yeah.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_00: I I think that's a positive signal, believe it or not, even though down that much.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_00: I I thought they would be down more.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: Real quick note, just talking about let's talk about markets at the end.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_01: At the end of this, because we're gonna be done with slides soon.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_01: I want to kind of go through all the markets, stock market where they are, what happened in metals, what happened in meats, and everything else, and maybe you could add a little color.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, let's go to this next slide.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_01: Dollar, yeah.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: What do you mean here?
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_00: For well, for a while there, the dollar was down nine percent for for earlier this year, and that's usually good for exports.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_00: But now the dollar index is on track to post its strongest weekly advance in a year, rising nearly two percent.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's a negative, by the way, to U.S.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_00: commodities.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_00: And you saw it in in commentary yesterday that a number of commentaries on corn and soybeans said, well, we went down today because the value of the dollar is is uh, well, they said surging.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think it was surging, but it's it's increasing.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: And you can see for the future, the dollar sentiment chart turns most bullish since April.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: That means, yeah, that that means uh the dollar uh could be a drag on on uh the competitiveness of U.S.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: farm exports, but it usually takes more than a few months for a dollar value to have an impact one way or the other, helping or hurting.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: So this is maybe a trading situation right now.
• 24:28
  SPEAKER_00: So that's what I wanted to say there.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_00: And the last one I had down, uh Tommy is my good friend John Newton.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: I think would he say the same?
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, he would.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: He would like this guy.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_01: I like John Newton, very good guy, and a great public speaker, much like yourself.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: And he's great on charts.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, wow, he's returning to the Farm Bureau a dual role.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't think out of all the decades I've watched Farm Bureau, I don't think they've ever combined vice president of public policy and economic analysis.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_00: So he's gonna lead their Farm Bureau's government relations and advocacy staff while serving as the group's uh top economist.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_00: And and I think they couldn't have picked a uh a better person.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_00: He knows Farm Bureau, worked there before.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_00: He was the Senate Ag Committee's chief economist for Bullsbeck up there.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: Then he yeah, then he went over to terrain.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got uh one of the best economists out there now at the Farm Bureau, and I like that.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's a good thing.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_01: He resigned from terrain.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he he resigned for I think he told me in an email, maybe 10 days.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_00: I think he'll be back over at the farm bureau because he wanted to make sure that I sent him my morning report at his new email until he gets into Farm Bureau.
• 25:48
  SPEAKER_01: That's how I'm gonna eye on this guy, Mr.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_01: John Newton.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I I I he was on stage with Don Wick at uh the Big Iron Farm Show in North Dakota, and he just speaks so well, makes it simple, doesn't speak above you, doesn't make you seem silly for not knowing, and that's what we're here to do.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_01: You and I are here to educate.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: Speaking of your uh newsletter here, let's get to the lightning round.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: There it is, right there.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: Weismeyer at gmail.com.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: If you'd like Jim's free newsletter, go right there.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_01: I got it running on the ticker right there.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_01: Weismeyer at gmail.com.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_01: And Jim will be.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_00: You know how that goes, Tommy.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm more than willing to uh give information out to the much needy and good act sector.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I just want to take one minute to uh thank everyone for watching.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: We we just rolled out a few weeks ago premium content.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_01: We had because of your show, people sign up.
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_01: Weismeyer is free because of Mr.
• 26:47
  SPEAKER_01: Jim Weismeyer.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, if you like additional content from AgBull,$25 a month,$250 a year.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: I texted clients within two minutes of that news breaking.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_01: I had a text out to AgBull clients, AgBull Trading, and then this AgBull Intel service.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_01: You can go to www.agbull.com.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_01: Some people don't want futures and options count, but they still want to be in the know.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_01: Does that make sense to you, Jim?
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: I do.
• 27:16
  SPEAKER_00: I I think so.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_01: Or maybe they have a broker they like, right?
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, I've been working with this guy for 20 years, but I like you too.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_01: I want to get on your information research package.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_01: So we're happy to provide that at a uh affordable, affordable price.
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_01: 80 cents a day.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_01: Speaking of 80 cents a day, I just found out, not that I smoke, but I didn't realize that cigarettes in some states are$15 a pack.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_01: Used to be able to buy a carton for$15, Mr.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_01: Weespire.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_01: I I don't think the tobacco farmers get all that money, do they?
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: No, I remember when I worked at my father's service station, they were like 35 cents a pack.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_01: Did you ever sneak one or two?
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_00: No, I never smoked one in in my life because my father smoked way too much and it hurt his uh blood vessels, by the way.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_01: You know who else didn't smoke?
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: President Well, President Clinton didn't inhale.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I said I didn't smoke cigarettes.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_01: All right, let's get in the lightning round.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_01: Tommy Gersafi, Jim Wiesmeyer, cattle closed at all-time highs today.
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know what they can say about it.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: Just wow, wow, wow.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_01: Upon filming this, the uh crude oil is down 270.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_01: Mr.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_01: Wiesmeyer, that is five.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_00: Crude oil's down because of primarily because of the unbelievable peace agreement uh between Israel and Hamas.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_00: Now there's more to go, you know, you can never trust Hamas, but the the the big one was to stop the fighting and to release those prisoners, hostages, actually, and that'll happen Monday or Tuesday.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you know, President Trump said, but anyone has to tip uh their hat or should to our president on that one because he it was because of him, he he got all parties together.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_00: And frankly, I believe he when he said this could have longer-term impacts, way more positive than anyone realized, where you could have peace, believe it or not, in the Middle East, so that sector can grow like Saudi Arabia is growing.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, if I wished I could travel as much as I used to, I'd go over to Saudi Arabia because some of the architecture over there is unbelievable, and Dubai, etc.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_00: So that's good news.
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_00: And from a crude oil perspective, that's really the reason you're going down.
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, big moves there.
• 29:34
  SPEAKER_01: Stock market NASDAQ went from severely overbought to oversold territory within two, three hours.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_01: I just saw a tweet come out from Zero Hedge, and uh everyone's complaining, oh, this damn Nasdaq's overbought.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: Well, not anymore.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: No, if you're looking to buy a dip.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_01: Now, you said before we started recording, don't be surprised at all if we see an eight to ten percent pullback.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_01: No, the Dow Jones is at 40,000.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: If we say the Dow's down 800, that's not a stock market crash, folks.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_01: No, that's a two percent correction.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_01: So think of things in percent.
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_01: That's my little advice for the weekend.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_00: And markets need to breathe.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: So you have I've never worried if in all my years of the equity markets of a of an eight to ten percent.
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_00: Once if it gets over ten percent, you have to watch it a little bit more.
• 30:21
  SPEAKER_00: But that helps evaluations and and things like that.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: So and it was overdue because we've had a dramatic my 401k, it's 501k.
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_00: So I can I can I can I can 401 and a half K.
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, speaking of investing and buying dips and selling rips, did you ever meet Warren Buffett?
• 30:39
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yes, I did.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_00: I've seen him at several conferences than that.
• 30:43
  SPEAKER_00: He's the the Oracle of uh Omaha, just a wise man beyond his uh means.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yeah, absolutely.
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: All right, I got a couple questions people texted before we started the show.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_01: How long will government shutdown last?
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_01: I know the prediction markets are are are betting on this.
• 30:58
  SPEAKER_00: Now they're the prediction markets keep going longer and longer.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I I don't think it's gonna wait until November 1.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: The pressure is already mount mounting, and you can see it.
• 31:12
  SPEAKER_00: I will tell you what to watch out for.
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_00: I I hope it's it's done by the end of next week, next Friday, but it could take another Friday to do so.
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_00: But the pressure is there.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, watch your uh airline industry.
• 31:28
  SPEAKER_00: Americans uh fly a lot, and you're already starting to see some some withdraw uh like uh cancellations or a slowdown of the uh transportation people uh calling in sick, Tommy, more than average in a shutdown.
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: Well, then that backs up the whole airline industry, and that's that that's real big pressure point.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_00: One, two is the military, they have to uh work, but they're not being paid.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_00: And so that'll be a pressure point.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_00: That'll be a pressure point as as well.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_00: But it's really the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare, but both one and the same.
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_00: The new enrollment period begins November one.
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_00: So the Democrats want to extend the COVID-related enhanced Obamacare payments that total$185 billion.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_00: That's wow, even in Washington, that's a lot of money.
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_00: And the Republicans say no.
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now they're talking behind the scenes of a possible compromise.
• 32:33
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that takes a while to get everybody together.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_00: So watch that issue.
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_00: But uh right now, both political parties are entrenched, so that it's hard to predict when it will end, and that's why the markets, the the betting markets are saying it'll be at least another two weeks.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_00: I hope they're wrong because we've already said from a farmer perspective, the aid payments, etc., the farmer aid package is now beholden until the government uh uh gets there.
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_00: So a lot of things are starting to build on the pressure mounts.
• 33:09
  SPEAKER_01: Ah, that's no good.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_01: That's just no good.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_01: Well, folks, if you're listening, watching, drop a comment.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_01: You could you're probably watching this on YouTube.
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_01: We'll put it on some other social medias.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_01: We have Mr.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_01: Jim Weesmeyer.
• 33:18
  SPEAKER_01: I am Tommy Gersafi.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_01: Jim's coming to us from Washington, D.C.
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_01: I am in Valparaiso, Indiana today.
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_01: You're listening to the Ag Bowl Podcast and uh little somber Tommy.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_01: We laughed a few times.
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_01: Very serious what's happening in the markets.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_01: Last but not least, uh, because I want to do that lightning round of talking about markets.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_01: And a few times while we were doing the show, I clicked on some gold.
• 33:39
  SPEAKER_01: The gold market has been going crazy.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_01: Last thoughts, Mr.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_01: Jim Weesmeyer.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_01: Stage is yours.
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_00: China is a big participant in that gold market.
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_00: They keeps buying gold, and and for this uh strategic reason is that they have lowered their purchases or their dollar accumulation by almost 50% over the last few years, because they don't want the US, if they we did get into a conflict with them, take their dollar holdings.
• 34:11
  SPEAKER_00: So that's one reason.
• 34:13
  SPEAKER_00: Also, when when China does that, it actually lowers the value of their currency, the REMD or the Yuan, which makes their products that that much more competitive.
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_00: And gold is seen as a hedge for China relative to their dollar holdings.
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_00: So all that is involved, and more from a speculative perspective of why we've seen a tremendous rally in the gold price.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_01: I couldn't have said it better and didn't even understand half of what you said.
• 34:42
  SPEAKER_01: Mr.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_01: Jim Wiesmeyer, the show's been Wiesmeyer's Perspectus and uh perspectives, and I'm Timakersafi.
• 34:49
  SPEAKER_01: I could barely talk because this has been a wild one and the markets aren't even closed yet.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see you all real soon.