Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Can I Find an Angle? | MLB | 7/23/26

Transcript

Thursday BEST BETS | Can I Find an Angle? | MLB | 7/23/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
0:20
Speaker 1: your chase the black coffee on the felt. Man, you
0:23
Speaker 1: look like a mist three teen Parlette turned the dust
0:28
Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
0:31
Speaker 1: they made you this man.
0:33
Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet?
0:35
Speaker 3: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
0:39
Speaker 3: something on somebody for show.
0:41
Speaker 4: Put the glass down, baby, look at me. No, hold on,
0:51
Speaker 4: hold on, nothing.
0:54
Speaker 5: Nice now, hold on, hold on.
1:02
Speaker 4: Me, but it all get the crown.
1:14
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
1:19
Speaker 2: Now, what's up everybody? It's Toad Back with you with
1:30
Speaker 2: Toadstool Sports, Thursday, July twenty third. We had a good
1:35
Speaker 2: day on the show yesterday, two and zero, So I'm
1:38
Speaker 2: happy about that selectivity. I guess paid off because I
1:41
Speaker 2: think some of my other opinions weren't as good yesterday.
1:45
Speaker 2: And it was a big board and we narrowed it
1:47
Speaker 2: way down. We hit with the under in Mets Brewers
1:51
Speaker 2: yesterday didn't look great early in the game. Scott was
1:54
Speaker 2: definitely struggling in that game. Henderson was really good though,
1:57
Speaker 2: and held the Mets completely in check. And then and
2:00
Speaker 2: the bullpens came in and the bullpens were good and
2:02
Speaker 2: held that thing down, and then it went from looking
2:07
Speaker 2: a little bit dicey to looking really good towards the end.
2:10
Speaker 2: And then the Mets actually scored a run in the
2:12
Speaker 2: ninth inning that made it land seven. So hopefully everybody
2:16
Speaker 2: got seven and a half on that. Seven and a
2:18
Speaker 2: half was pretty abundant, so I'm pretty sure people were
2:22
Speaker 2: able to do that. But yeah, I mean that last
2:24
Speaker 2: run it happened with two outs too. It probably shouldn't
2:27
Speaker 2: have even happened. That was to make it a four
2:30
Speaker 2: to three Brewers win, and when it was four to
2:33
Speaker 2: two for quite a while. I think it was four
2:35
Speaker 2: to two from like the sixth, fifth or sixth inning
2:38
Speaker 2: all the way to the ninth inning, so whatever. And
2:41
Speaker 2: then Phoenix was a winner as well. In the WNBA,
2:45
Speaker 2: they led most of the game. It was a close final,
2:49
Speaker 2: but they were an underdog. Of course, if anybody got
2:52
Speaker 2: the worst number on it, they still won because the
2:55
Speaker 2: underdog went outright. I thought it was the best of
2:58
Speaker 2: the angles in the WNBA, and that turned out to
3:00
Speaker 2: be the case because some of my other opinions were
3:03
Speaker 2: not correct, so I chose the right one man the
3:07
Speaker 2: market read agreed with it. Whatever. I think it was
3:09
Speaker 2: the right side. Phoenix outplayed La. They got the win.
3:14
Speaker 2: Wasn't misleading or anything if you look at the box score.
3:16
Speaker 2: So whatever, We'll move on to today. We only have
3:20
Speaker 2: five games today. It's only baseball because I'm pretty sure
3:24
Speaker 2: WNBA is going into the All Star break. So five
3:28
Speaker 2: baseball games is all we have today. I got a
3:31
Speaker 2: couple of angles. I'm gonna give up one play, and
3:33
Speaker 2: there was another one I was kind of considering. Although
3:35
Speaker 2: it's a little bit outside of my wheelhouse, I would say,
3:40
Speaker 2: turty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out? All right, Yeah,
3:45
Speaker 2: let's just do it.
3:46
Speaker 4: Man.
3:46
Speaker 2: Now, this is gonna be a short show. But I
3:48
Speaker 2: enjoy that San Diego and Atlanta are playing at twelve
3:53
Speaker 2: fifteen Eastern, finishing this game because teams have to travel
3:57
Speaker 2: or whatever start a new series tomorrow. So these teams
4:00
Speaker 2: are finishing a four game series. Atlanta has won two
4:03
Speaker 2: of the three. Both their wins came by one run,
4:07
Speaker 2: including yesterday winning seven to six. What is this game
4:11
Speaker 2: gonna bring well? First of all, if you look at
4:13
Speaker 2: the pitching matchup, maybe this is obviously a gigantic pitching mismatch.
4:19
Speaker 2: Here although when you start digging into the numbers a
4:21
Speaker 2: little bit, maybe it's not as much of a mismatch
4:26
Speaker 2: as maybe you would think. Atlanta used a lot of
4:31
Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday they use five. They do have a
4:34
Speaker 2: good bullpen, but San Diego also does. San Diego only
4:37
Speaker 2: US three, and one of them was former starter Randy Vasquez,
4:41
Speaker 2: so it probably is a good thing if he's not
4:44
Speaker 2: gonna pitch out of the bullpen, probably a good thing
4:47
Speaker 2: for them. Atlanta's ranked number one, and bullpens still in Whip,
4:50
Speaker 2: but their era has gone up a little bit recently,
4:53
Speaker 2: so Red Sox and Yankees both have a somewhat better
4:57
Speaker 2: era than the Braves at this point. But Braves a
5:00
Speaker 2: good bullpen. San Diego is twelfth. I think they're a
5:04
Speaker 2: better bullpen than that. As well, as I keep saying
5:07
Speaker 2: two good bullpens here, San Diego a little bit more
5:09
Speaker 2: rested might might counter the Atlanta bullpen edge that they
5:14
Speaker 2: would normally have there. Hitting wise, Atlanta is the better team.
5:17
Speaker 2: They're eighth, tied with Minnesota. San Diego has been pretty
5:21
Speaker 2: pute for at all season. In their twenty seventh not
5:25
Speaker 2: good and Griffin Canning is pitching this game for San Diego.
5:29
Speaker 2: If you're gonna play this game, I will say that
5:31
Speaker 2: you probably want to go action on this, or at
5:34
Speaker 2: least just pick Chris Sale must start for Atlanta. Don't
5:38
Speaker 2: choose a starter for San Diego because they put openers
5:41
Speaker 2: in front of Canning. Sometimes I have no idea what
5:43
Speaker 2: they're gonna do here, but Canning is most likely going
5:46
Speaker 2: to pitch a starter's workload here, if you want to
5:49
Speaker 2: call it that. He's been awful though. Six point six
5:52
Speaker 2: to seventy ra one point six two whip, seven point
5:56
Speaker 2: seven to one Roady Ray with a three hundred opponent
5:59
Speaker 2: batting average on the road. Yeah, that's not very good.
6:03
Speaker 2: He's been bad recently. San Diego's lost four starts in
6:06
Speaker 2: a row of his hasn't made it to the fifth inning,
6:08
Speaker 2: or hasn't made it through five innings in any of those,
6:12
Speaker 2: or made it to the five inning mark in any
6:14
Speaker 2: of those. Yeah, I mean, he's obviously not pitching well.
6:17
Speaker 2: He's got a high hit rate. His walk rate is
6:20
Speaker 2: way too high, really bad. A strikeout rate is actually
6:24
Speaker 2: not too bad. The only thing he has going for
6:27
Speaker 2: him is he still is able to strike some guys out.
6:29
Speaker 2: He did pitch against Atlanta on June twenty third in
6:32
Speaker 2: San Diego, a pitcher friendly park, and it did not
6:36
Speaker 2: go very well. He didn't make it out of the
6:38
Speaker 2: first inning and he allowed four runs. Is that good?
6:42
Speaker 2: I don't think so. Of four earned runs. Atlanta overall
6:46
Speaker 2: has hit him well in forty six at bats three
6:48
Speaker 2: forty eight average, nine to thirty one OPS, twelve to
6:52
Speaker 2: three strikeout walk ratio. The ratio there is good, but
6:56
Speaker 2: Matt Olsen has just struck out a lot against him
6:58
Speaker 2: eight Strikeoutsana generally has gotten the best of him pretty significantly.
7:04
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't I don't think Canning is gonna
7:06
Speaker 2: do well here. Chris Sale, as I said, is pitching
7:09
Speaker 2: for Atlanta. Obviously, he's an ACE caliber pitcher still two
7:14
Speaker 2: point six ERA, one point oh six whip, he has
7:17
Speaker 2: a one point three to five homey RA. Yeah, he's
7:20
Speaker 2: been really good. Hasn't allow to run in his last
7:23
Speaker 2: two outings, though one of them was a shortened outing.
7:25
Speaker 2: I don't know what happened in that game against Saint Louis.
7:29
Speaker 2: I don't remember it, like if there was some injury concern.
7:32
Speaker 2: He did not allow any runs there, like I said,
7:34
Speaker 2: so it could have been a rain issue, it could
7:36
Speaker 2: have been injury. I don't know what that was. But
7:38
Speaker 2: he pitched on schedule pretty much the next time, and
7:41
Speaker 2: he was really good again against Texas, So I don't know.
7:45
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't really have many concerns with us
7:47
Speaker 2: Sale as far as how he's pitching. He's really only
7:50
Speaker 2: had one bad outing all season, which was back in
7:52
Speaker 2: early April against Anaheim on the road, which is in retrospect,
7:58
Speaker 2: seems pretty weird because Anaheim is not a good team
8:02
Speaker 2: and they don't hit well at home either. Sales got
8:06
Speaker 2: a low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate,
8:08
Speaker 2: as you could expect. He's he has all the good numbers,
8:11
Speaker 2: except he's not good against San Diego. In ninety four
8:16
Speaker 2: career at bats, they've gotten the best of him slightly
8:20
Speaker 2: two sixty six average, seven to seventy three ops N,
8:24
Speaker 2: twenty nine to nine strikeout walk ratio. Manny Machado and
8:28
Speaker 2: Xander Bogarts to both have good and tatise. Actually, the
8:32
Speaker 2: three like main guys in this lineup all hit him well.
8:35
Speaker 2: So maybe not a great sign for Chris Sale here.
8:39
Speaker 2: I don't think you can lay a price like this
8:41
Speaker 2: with Atlanta, even though on the surface it looks like, yeah,
8:43
Speaker 2: they have a huge pitching advantage here Atlanta, you have
8:46
Speaker 2: to lay like minus two fifty with them or more.
8:50
Speaker 2: Obviously I would not do that, and the money is
8:53
Speaker 2: fading them ninety tickets seventy nine percent of the cash
8:56
Speaker 2: on Atlanta, I would not do that. I mean, you
8:59
Speaker 2: could make it run line and get it down to
9:01
Speaker 2: about minus one twenty with Atlanta on the minus one
9:04
Speaker 2: and a half. I wouldn't do that either. Given what
9:07
Speaker 2: sales matchup numbers look like, I think the better way
9:10
Speaker 2: to play this game might be to play the over,
9:14
Speaker 2: uh fifty two ticket seventy five percent of the cash
9:16
Speaker 2: on the over. The totals at eight, I mean, the
9:19
Speaker 2: both offenses seem to have the edge over both starting pitchers,
9:23
Speaker 2: believe it or not. I mean, it's easy to believe
9:25
Speaker 2: with Canning, but yeah, I think the eight pretty reasonable.
9:30
Speaker 2: I mean, it's basically what you'd expect with this matchup
9:33
Speaker 2: with one bad pitcher and one good picture. Yeah, I
9:36
Speaker 2: think the over might make sense or I mean, because
9:40
Speaker 2: Sale could obviously come out and dominate, you know what
9:42
Speaker 2: I mean. I don't think he's faced San Diego this
9:44
Speaker 2: year and they haven't hit well this year, so obviously
9:47
Speaker 2: it's not out of the question that he comes in
9:49
Speaker 2: and just dominates again. So if you want to take
9:52
Speaker 2: the variability of Chris Sale out, I think the way
9:55
Speaker 2: that I would probably actually play this is to just
9:57
Speaker 2: go Atlanta team total over. Just go with it, Lanta
10:00
Speaker 2: to score off Canning, and then whatever San Diego has
10:05
Speaker 2: to do behind them, because if the game gets on
10:07
Speaker 2: a hand, they're gonna they're not gonna use their better relievers,
10:10
Speaker 2: which means Atlanta might be able to tack on some
10:12
Speaker 2: extra runs. But if you do that, you know the
10:15
Speaker 2: professionals would be like, oh, you're playing the team total
10:18
Speaker 2: over with the home team and if they're winning, then
10:20
Speaker 2: you won't get there at bats in the ninth inning. Yeah,
10:23
Speaker 2: that's true, but I think that might be the way
10:26
Speaker 2: to go here. The number was four and a half
10:30
Speaker 2: over was like minus one thirty, so I think that
10:33
Speaker 2: would actually probably be what I would do if I
10:35
Speaker 2: played that game. I would take Atlanta over four and
10:37
Speaker 2: a half on their team total and minus one thirty.
10:40
Speaker 2: Or you could get really granular with it at some
10:42
Speaker 2: books and do an in Atlanta first five team total
10:46
Speaker 2: over just to beat up Canning. If you wanted to
10:49
Speaker 2: do that, you'll probably need them to score three runs,
10:53
Speaker 2: I would imagine, or something like that, which it's you know,
10:57
Speaker 2: it is a little bit of an ask. I don't know.
10:58
Speaker 2: I'd probably rather just go full game and if Canning
11:01
Speaker 2: is out of the game early, that might domino into
11:04
Speaker 2: the bullpends, you know what I mean. But this will
11:07
Speaker 2: not be my play though, Kyle, what's up. You've been
11:10
Speaker 2: tailing well? Yeah, things have not gone well, so maybe
11:13
Speaker 2: it's better if you're not tailing me. Except for yesterday.
11:17
Speaker 2: Road work. I hate road work, man. It's constant. Roads
11:21
Speaker 2: are in constant disrepair. Because it's government man, They're incentivized
11:26
Speaker 2: to keep them in constant disrepair. It's ridiculous and it
11:29
Speaker 2: ruins vehicles. I hate it, especially in Massachusetts where we
11:33
Speaker 2: have some of the worst roads. Minnesota at Cleveland on
11:38
Speaker 2: ESPN Unlimited. This will complete their four game series here.
11:42
Speaker 2: Minnesota won yesterday after losing the first two games, so
11:46
Speaker 2: Cleveland is up to one in the series. I still
11:50
Speaker 2: think both teams will show up here because it is
11:51
Speaker 2: a divisional series. You know, I don't think Cleveland after
11:55
Speaker 2: winning the first two games, I don't think they want
11:57
Speaker 2: to come out of this with a split, So I
11:59
Speaker 2: think both are gonna show up for this. I also
12:02
Speaker 2: think that with Atlanta and San Diego for this one. Minnesota,
12:08
Speaker 2: I mean, we know their bullpen is terrible. They use
12:11
Speaker 2: four guys out of the bullpen. Yesterday Cleveland used four
12:15
Speaker 2: as well. Cleveland has the better bullpen, though they are fourteenth.
12:19
Speaker 2: Atlanta or excuse me a Minnesota to excuse me is
12:23
Speaker 2: twenty ninth. Minnesota. Yeah, very bad bullpen. Hitting wise, Minnesota
12:29
Speaker 2: is the better team. They're tied in eighth with Atlanta.
12:31
Speaker 2: As I just mentioned, Cleveland twenty six. They've been doing
12:34
Speaker 2: better again recently. And Jose Ramirez, I believe, came back yesterday,
12:38
Speaker 2: so Cleveland's best hitter is back in their lineup here
12:42
Speaker 2: after he had a broken hand and he was out
12:45
Speaker 2: for a while. So that should help. Cleveland's offense have
12:48
Speaker 2: been I mean, obviously that's not going to turn them into,
12:51
Speaker 2: you know, this extremely potent offense, but it will make
12:54
Speaker 2: them no longer like they're not like gonna be the
12:57
Speaker 2: worst offense that you've ever seen, you know what I mean,
13:01
Speaker 2: It'll improve them a bit. TODJ. Bradley is pitching for
13:05
Speaker 2: Minnesota here, he's been pretty good recently. He's had a
13:07
Speaker 2: pretty good season really, three point eight five ERA, one
13:10
Speaker 2: point two to five WHIP. He's not as good on
13:12
Speaker 2: the road four point five road ERA. Didn't really do
13:16
Speaker 2: well in his last outing against the Cobbs on the
13:18
Speaker 2: road five innings, five and runs, will have three walks,
13:22
Speaker 2: not very good. His strikeout rate has been high though recently,
13:26
Speaker 2: so he doesn't I've always thought that he has some
13:28
Speaker 2: talent man. He has the ability to strike guys out.
13:30
Speaker 2: Before that last out in Minnesota, had won six of
13:33
Speaker 2: his starts in a row. He's got a low hit
13:36
Speaker 2: rate on the season. His walk rate is basically the
13:39
Speaker 2: biggest question mark with him. He walks too many guys,
13:41
Speaker 2: so that's the one issue he really has. And then
13:44
Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is good. He does strike out a
13:46
Speaker 2: lot of guys. He did pitch against Cleveland recently on
13:50
Speaker 2: July seventh, so they are recently familiar with him, but
13:53
Speaker 2: they're already familiar with them, so I don't know if
13:55
Speaker 2: that's gonna matter that much. He really did well in
13:57
Speaker 2: that start that was in Minnesota. He went sevens ononner
14:00
Speaker 2: and run a lot of three hits, ten strikeouts. That
14:04
Speaker 2: was without Jose Ramirez in the lineup, but still that
14:07
Speaker 2: was a good outing from him. And with Ramirez in
14:10
Speaker 2: the lineup, he does actually hit Bradley well. But even
14:12
Speaker 2: with him in there, the numbers are kind of mediocre
14:16
Speaker 2: for Cleveland against Bradley in forty eight at bats to
14:19
Speaker 2: seventy one average, seven thirty eight ohps, eighteen to two
14:22
Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio though, so he has a good command
14:26
Speaker 2: ratio there against Cleveland. They don't really draw walks against him. Yeah,
14:31
Speaker 2: I mean, based on how Bradley was pitching up until
14:35
Speaker 2: his last start, I kind of lean more towards him
14:37
Speaker 2: pitching well here. But I don't know if he's gonna
14:40
Speaker 2: be as good as Gavin Williams in this game. Williams,
14:43
Speaker 2: he's good, and he's better than his four e RA
14:45
Speaker 2: makes him look right now, he's got a one point
14:47
Speaker 2: one to five whip. He's pitching for Cleveland here. He's
14:51
Speaker 2: been better at home three point four to five home
14:54
Speaker 2: the ram. He wasn't great in his last outing either,
14:57
Speaker 2: giving up five or in runs to Pittsburgh, but that
15:00
Speaker 2: is a good offense and I think he got unlucky.
15:02
Speaker 2: He allowed three home runs there. He still had eleven
15:04
Speaker 2: strikeouts and no walks, so his command was obviously completely
15:08
Speaker 2: on point there. So yeah, I just think he got
15:11
Speaker 2: unlucky and Pittsburgh just connected with some of his fastballs
15:14
Speaker 2: or whatever. He's got a pretty low hit rate. He
15:18
Speaker 2: does a lot a lot of home runs though, so
15:19
Speaker 2: that is still a concern. Like that wasn't necessarily a
15:22
Speaker 2: total fluke with those home runs that he allowed. There's
15:25
Speaker 2: walk rate is relatively low, strikeout rate is high. He
15:29
Speaker 2: does strike out a lot of guys. So we have
15:31
Speaker 2: two good strikeout pitchers pitching here in Williams. In the
15:34
Speaker 2: start before that, did pitch in that Minnesota series in Minnesota,
15:38
Speaker 2: and he was very good in that start too. He
15:39
Speaker 2: had eleven strikeouts in seven innings, so he's got twenty
15:43
Speaker 2: two strikeouts over his last thirteen innings of work. That game,
15:46
Speaker 2: he had one walk and two urningd runs allowed on
15:49
Speaker 2: three hits. Yeah, that's pretty good against Minnesota. He's pretty
15:54
Speaker 2: much dominated them in a big sample size of one
15:56
Speaker 2: hundred and eight at bats, two thirteen average, five to
15:59
Speaker 2: fifty seven OPS, thirty one to seven strike out walk ratio.
16:02
Speaker 2: All those numbers are good. I'm gonna leave Cleveland here.
16:07
Speaker 2: I think the under is worth considering as well, but
16:10
Speaker 2: I think Williams is the better of the two pitchers here,
16:14
Speaker 2: matches up a little bit better. I don't think it's
16:16
Speaker 2: a huge advantage though, and you do have to lay
16:18
Speaker 2: a price for it. You gotta lay like minus one
16:21
Speaker 2: forty or so, which I don't know, man. I mean
16:23
Speaker 2: they are a little bit public as well, seventy six
16:25
Speaker 2: percent of tickets, seventy nine percent of the cash on
16:28
Speaker 2: Cleveland because they do have the better record. Maybe you
16:31
Speaker 2: could argue that Bradley's being a little bit undervalued here.
16:34
Speaker 2: But Cleveland's also got the better bullpen here, So I
16:37
Speaker 2: think if you take Cleveland full game, I do think
16:40
Speaker 2: they have the advantages there. I don't know if it's
16:41
Speaker 2: quite enough to justify that price though, but I slightly
16:45
Speaker 2: lean that way, and I think the under there are
16:48
Speaker 2: some arguments for it, right like maybe first five under
16:51
Speaker 2: because Minnesota's bullpen that could like ruin your under Minnesota's bullpen.
16:56
Speaker 2: So full game total seven and a half, which is
16:58
Speaker 2: pretty low. So the odds makers actually think this is
17:01
Speaker 2: going to be a pitching duel here in Cleveland has
17:03
Speaker 2: played a lot of low scoring games at home because
17:06
Speaker 2: they have generally pretty good pitching and their offense is
17:09
Speaker 2: generally not good. Money does seem to back that sentiment.
17:13
Speaker 2: Sixty nine percent of the tickets of fifty five percent
17:15
Speaker 2: of the cash on the over, so I think the
17:18
Speaker 2: under looks like it is getting some of the money.
17:22
Speaker 2: And again I think first five is what makes more
17:24
Speaker 2: sense with that. That might be the thing that makes
17:26
Speaker 2: the most sense in that game. I don't know it's
17:29
Speaker 2: between that or playing Cleveland full game on the money line.
17:33
Speaker 2: The under in the first five you're probably looking at
17:35
Speaker 2: that dreaded three and a half, though there's not really
17:38
Speaker 2: that much leeway there, all right, and then the last
17:42
Speaker 2: afternoon game because I guess the next game is early evening,
17:47
Speaker 2: So out of these, the three afternoon games are all
17:49
Speaker 2: completion completions of series here four game series, and then
17:54
Speaker 2: the last two games or evening games because they're the
17:57
Speaker 2: start of a new series. But I do have a
18:00
Speaker 2: play in this last of the continuation games here, so
18:08
Speaker 2: this will be the one play I have today. We're
18:10
Speaker 2: gonna take the Blue Jays in the first five on
18:13
Speaker 2: the money line, which I was surprised that you could
18:15
Speaker 2: get them around the same price you can get them
18:17
Speaker 2: in the full game. I'm gonna avoid them in the
18:19
Speaker 2: full game here just because I don't like the bullpen
18:22
Speaker 2: rest scenario for Toronto. Like if Toronto's bullpen was rested,
18:26
Speaker 2: I would probably go full game on this because I
18:28
Speaker 2: think their bullpen might be slightly better than Tampa Bay's,
18:31
Speaker 2: but I don't want to deal with that after the
18:33
Speaker 2: usage they had yesterday, which included Viarlin their closer, even
18:37
Speaker 2: though he might be usable again today, but I don't
18:39
Speaker 2: want to deal with that. So I'm gonna go first
18:42
Speaker 2: five on this to just focus on the starting pitching.
18:45
Speaker 2: But this is also a situational play because Toronto's trying
18:48
Speaker 2: to avoid a sweep. Peer They've lost four straight. They
18:51
Speaker 2: have not looked good in this series, although yesterday was closer.
18:54
Speaker 2: I mean, they lost Game one of the series with
18:56
Speaker 2: dalln't cease on the mountain. Things are not going well. Man.
19:00
Speaker 2: They lost with Gousman on the mound in one of
19:02
Speaker 2: these games, although I pointed out Gusman has not been
19:05
Speaker 2: that good against Tampa Bay. But this might be a
19:08
Speaker 2: situation where I mean, again, as I talk about in
19:11
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball, when you have a home team trying
19:13
Speaker 2: to avoid a sweep, especially in a four game series.
19:17
Speaker 2: You usually get a lot of motivation from them, and
19:19
Speaker 2: the other team might just look right past them, like
19:21
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay has already won the series, you know what
19:23
Speaker 2: I mean. I know they're battling in this division, but
19:25
Speaker 2: Toronto's not the team they're battling with. They're battling with
19:28
Speaker 2: the Red Sox and the Yankees pretty much. And Tampa
19:32
Speaker 2: Bay might start looking ahead because they do play Cleveland
19:35
Speaker 2: over the weekend and Cleveland is battling for the AL
19:39
Speaker 2: Central right now and has a winning record, so that
19:42
Speaker 2: might be a look ahead spot. So Tampa Bay might
19:45
Speaker 2: pack this thing or in early, man, it's getaway day.
19:48
Speaker 2: Weird things happen when you have this final game of
19:50
Speaker 2: a series. It's the afternoon. Teams that have already won
19:53
Speaker 2: the series could definitely start looking ahead. So I think
19:55
Speaker 2: that might happen here. And I like to start a
19:58
Speaker 2: pitching matchup for Toronto, believe it or so, I'm gonna
20:00
Speaker 2: talk about that in a second. As far as the bullpen's,
20:03
Speaker 2: the reason why I want to leave Toronto out is
20:05
Speaker 2: because they use six relief pitchers yesterday. I don't want
20:09
Speaker 2: to deal with that man. They went with a bullpen
20:11
Speaker 2: game yesterday, and like I said, they used violin their closer.
20:15
Speaker 2: They used Hoffman and Fluardi, who were both some of
20:19
Speaker 2: their back end relief guys. So I don't want to
20:21
Speaker 2: deal with this bullpen right now. So dude, they might
20:23
Speaker 2: have to use Patrick Korr, but today I don't want
20:26
Speaker 2: to deal with that. Tampa Bay's bullpen is not bad
20:30
Speaker 2: and they used only three guys out of the bullpen,
20:33
Speaker 2: although they did have a save situation themselves. I'm not
20:35
Speaker 2: sure who they use as a closer, but probably whoever
20:38
Speaker 2: it is, they used them because it was a save
20:40
Speaker 2: situation yesterday. Tampa Bay's fifth and bullpen whip, although their
20:44
Speaker 2: eray is still above four, but given the rest, I
20:48
Speaker 2: think they might have a little bit of a bullpen
20:49
Speaker 2: edge here, So I'm excluding the bullpens. Toronto generally does
20:53
Speaker 2: have the better bullpen eerra their ranked thirteenth. Their whip
20:57
Speaker 2: is worse, but yeah, I don't like the rest or
21:00
Speaker 2: thereof Toronto has been horrible offensively, I get that they're
21:04
Speaker 2: ranked dead last, but I think they might be able
21:06
Speaker 2: to put up something against ian Seymour here, which I'm
21:09
Speaker 2: gonna talk about in a minute. Tampa Bay does have
21:11
Speaker 2: the better offense. They're ranked sixth, which I think that
21:15
Speaker 2: overrates them a bit in my opinion. I think they're
21:17
Speaker 2: like a decent offense, still better than Torontos obviously, But
21:22
Speaker 2: Ian Seymour for Tampa Bay, he's been good, but I
21:26
Speaker 2: don't think he's as good as maybe he looked, although
21:28
Speaker 2: his whip does still indicate his ERA should be lower
21:31
Speaker 2: than it is four point seven to nine e RA
21:34
Speaker 2: one point one to seven whip would indicate that his
21:36
Speaker 2: r should be like in the threes, probably the high threes.
21:41
Speaker 2: But he is starting to pitch a little bit worse
21:43
Speaker 2: and he has not been good on the road. He
21:44
Speaker 2: has a six point two to three Roady Ray. And
21:47
Speaker 2: that's another thing about Tampa Bay is they're better at
21:50
Speaker 2: home than they are on the road. They're below five
21:52
Speaker 2: hundred on the road, so it's not like there're anything
21:54
Speaker 2: special on the road, you know. I know Toronto sucked
21:57
Speaker 2: either way home, at home or away, but Tampa Bay
22:00
Speaker 2: is much better at home than on the road. So
22:04
Speaker 2: even with the three wins in the series, they're still
22:07
Speaker 2: below five hundred on the road, So I think we
22:09
Speaker 2: get fades tamp on the road. Ian Seymour is not
22:12
Speaker 2: good on the road, as I just pointed out, and
22:14
Speaker 2: he's not pitching well recently. His last three outings, well,
22:17
Speaker 2: actually one of them he had twelve strikeouts against the Yankees,
22:20
Speaker 2: so i'll give him. I'll give him credit for that.
22:22
Speaker 2: His last two outings then have not been good. He's
22:25
Speaker 2: walked five guys over his last six and a third innings,
22:28
Speaker 2: didn't even make it to the didn't even make it
22:30
Speaker 2: through four innings in either of his last two starts
22:33
Speaker 2: against Seattle on the Red Sox, so not exactly the
22:37
Speaker 2: most elite offenses there. So I think Seymour is out
22:40
Speaker 2: of form right now. He's not good on the road. Overall,
22:44
Speaker 2: he's been pretty good, though I will admit that he's
22:46
Speaker 2: got a low hit rate. His walk rate is not
22:48
Speaker 2: great really though the walk rate is kind of his
22:50
Speaker 2: one red flag there, if you will. Strikeout rate is good.
22:55
Speaker 2: He's got a high strikeout rate. But against Toronto specifically,
23:00
Speaker 2: he hasn't been good. In thirty eight career at bats.
23:02
Speaker 2: They have a three sixty eight average against him oneenty
23:06
Speaker 2: twenty oh ps nine to three strike out walk ratio.
23:08
Speaker 2: So I think Toronto can get to him here based
23:11
Speaker 2: on these numbers here, and Vlad Guerrero isn't really one
23:14
Speaker 2: of the guys that does a lot of damage. So
23:16
Speaker 2: these other guys that Toronto has have actually done damage
23:20
Speaker 2: against them. So I think they could do that here.
23:22
Speaker 2: And we're gonna back Shane Bieber. It seems a little risky.
23:26
Speaker 2: I know, five point seventy ra one point seventy three
23:29
Speaker 2: whip is absolutely horrific. But the thing about Bieber, I
23:33
Speaker 2: don't think his career is over, man. I mean I've
23:36
Speaker 2: heard even professional betters like saying, oh yeah, Bieber is
23:39
Speaker 2: never gonna come back. I'm like, dude, he's thirty one,
23:43
Speaker 2: and if you look at his career numbers, he's been
23:47
Speaker 2: He's been awesome throughout his career. Like I think he
23:49
Speaker 2: was a cy young contender some of these seasons not
23:51
Speaker 2: too long ago with Cleveland, and then when he actually
23:54
Speaker 2: pitched for Toronto, you know, because he was basically injured
23:57
Speaker 2: for all of twenty twenty four, Toronto wound up getting him.
24:01
Speaker 2: And when he actually pitched last year, he only made
24:03
Speaker 2: seven starts, but he was he was good and we
24:05
Speaker 2: got some wins backing him on the show last year.
24:09
Speaker 2: I know, this year hasn't gone well, but and he's
24:11
Speaker 2: trying to come back from injury again because he got
24:13
Speaker 2: injured again last year. But when he's informed, like you know,
24:17
Speaker 2: when he's healthy, he's usually good. And I know he
24:20
Speaker 2: struggled this season, but I think we see some good
24:23
Speaker 2: signs here because look at what he did in his
24:24
Speaker 2: last start. He went six shutout innings against the White Sox,
24:28
Speaker 2: were not a weak offense, and they had Murkkami back
24:32
Speaker 2: by then too. He only left three hits, six strikeouts,
24:35
Speaker 2: two walks. That was a good outing from him, and
24:36
Speaker 2: he was efficient as well, only through eighty pitches in
24:39
Speaker 2: that one. So they're also unleashing bee Burs since he
24:42
Speaker 2: is a veteran pitcher who has been really good in
24:45
Speaker 2: the past. They're just letting him go like ninety to
24:47
Speaker 2: one hundred pitches basically in some of these games, which
24:50
Speaker 2: I think is a good sign. And that was his
24:53
Speaker 2: best start of the season by far, so I think
24:55
Speaker 2: he's trending in the right direction here. We basically know
24:59
Speaker 2: who he is based on his career. The only question
25:02
Speaker 2: is is he going to be actually is he healthy
25:04
Speaker 2: at this point? Is he gonna stay healthy? I'm going
25:06
Speaker 2: to bank on yes here, given what we saw in
25:09
Speaker 2: his last outing, I think that's a really good sign.
25:13
Speaker 2: Although I know his overall numbers aren't good right now.
25:15
Speaker 2: His hit rate is high, as walk rate is too high,
25:18
Speaker 2: strike out rate is not as high as you want
25:20
Speaker 2: from him. I don't care. I'm still gonna do this
25:22
Speaker 2: year against Tampa Bay in the past. I know he's
25:27
Speaker 2: been good in twenty nine at bats. They they do
25:30
Speaker 2: have three home runs off and which is a little
25:32
Speaker 2: bit of a concern. Those are all the extra base hits,
25:34
Speaker 2: but they have a one seventy two average off. I mean,
25:37
Speaker 2: even with the three home runs, the OPS is seven
25:39
Speaker 2: h nine, which is still not that high. Six strikeouts,
25:43
Speaker 2: two walks there. I know most of that was in
25:46
Speaker 2: the past. I mean none of it was this season,
25:48
Speaker 2: right So, I know Bieber has been the worst that
25:53
Speaker 2: he's ever been this year. I get that, But I
25:56
Speaker 2: think he's coming into form man, and he's been good
25:58
Speaker 2: against Tampa Bay in the past. I think this is
26:01
Speaker 2: the right move here. The money doesn't seem to agree
26:03
Speaker 2: with me on this. Toronto's kind of a favor here,
26:06
Speaker 2: which also I don't understand, like the you got to
26:10
Speaker 2: think the public is going to be on Tampa Bay,
26:11
Speaker 2: and it looks like they are sixty nine percent of
26:13
Speaker 2: the tickets, Like, why wouldn't you take Tampa Bay, especially
26:16
Speaker 2: if you're getting them as an underdog price, you know
26:18
Speaker 2: what I mean, the team that's won every game of
26:20
Speaker 2: the series and as the better record. It looks so
26:22
Speaker 2: easy to take Tampa Bay here, and Bieber's numbers just
26:25
Speaker 2: look like an absolute train wreck. So to me, I
26:29
Speaker 2: would think Tampa Bay would be very public here. It
26:32
Speaker 2: looks like ninety one percent of the tickets are on
26:34
Speaker 2: TAMPAA or ninety one percent of the cash excuse me,
26:36
Speaker 2: on Tampa Bay, which I don't understand that. I don't
26:38
Speaker 2: really think the professional betters are actually coming in and
26:42
Speaker 2: backing Tampa Bay here. I could be wrong, but I'm
26:45
Speaker 2: going if they are, I'm going against them. I'm gonna
26:47
Speaker 2: be on Toronto first five. That is gonna be my
26:50
Speaker 2: only play there. Hopefully that all makes sense. I think
26:53
Speaker 2: we have a situational set up for it, and I
26:55
Speaker 2: think the starting pitching actually is in favor of it
27:00
Speaker 2: as well, even though it doesn't look like it on
27:01
Speaker 2: the surface. So that's what we're gonna do. I'll give
27:04
Speaker 2: I'll give Bieber a chance here, man, I don't think
27:07
Speaker 2: I'm backed in this year? Have I maybe once? I
27:10
Speaker 2: don't know. I think I might have tried to back
27:13
Speaker 2: him once in his first game back and it didn't
27:15
Speaker 2: go well. But I'm gonna do it one more time,
27:17
Speaker 2: especially given that he was actually really good in his
27:19
Speaker 2: last start. All right, then we have the two new
27:22
Speaker 2: series that are starting at Arizona and Saint Louis. Excuse me,
27:26
Speaker 2: this show is still taking longer than I thought it would.
27:29
Speaker 2: Saint Louis is returning home from a road trip where
27:31
Speaker 2: they went to Arizona, by the way, and they lost
27:34
Speaker 2: three out of four, use two out of three at
27:37
Speaker 2: Atlanta's a logo looks too similar, Man, it's a red
27:39
Speaker 2: a okay, and my stroke brain doesn't let me discern
27:45
Speaker 2: between different lines. Correctly, they lost two out of three
27:48
Speaker 2: in Arizona not too long ago, and then they just
27:52
Speaker 2: played in Anaheim. So now Saint Louis is coming back
27:54
Speaker 2: from the Pacific coast. It's a little bit of a
27:56
Speaker 2: difficult spot for them, I would say, however, because they
27:59
Speaker 2: just lost in Arizona. I don't really think they're gonna
28:02
Speaker 2: overlook Arizona. So you have kind of conflicting things here right,
28:06
Speaker 2: Like I don't like teams in a return home spot
28:08
Speaker 2: because I think they have to get back to home life.
28:10
Speaker 2: They have stuff to do that's piled up when they've
28:12
Speaker 2: been gone for a week or whatever. But because they
28:16
Speaker 2: just lost to Arizona during the road trip, as I said,
28:19
Speaker 2: I think they might not totally overlook Arizona here. Arizona
28:23
Speaker 2: is in the better spot though they're starting a road trip.
28:26
Speaker 2: They got some momentum, but they looked really good. Yesterday
28:29
Speaker 2: they destroyed what do they do to my boy? They
28:31
Speaker 2: massacred my boy. Man gauge jump yesterday was awful. I
28:36
Speaker 2: don't know what happened in that game. I thought the
28:37
Speaker 2: A's would win that game. Arizona pummeled them fifteen to five.
28:41
Speaker 2: Merril Kelly actually wasn't that bad. Yeah, I can't explain
28:46
Speaker 2: that game. But the A's suck right now, and Arizona
28:50
Speaker 2: is starting a road trip here with momentum, so I
28:52
Speaker 2: think it is more of a positive spot for Arizona.
28:55
Speaker 2: And when you start a road trip usually you are focused.
28:57
Speaker 2: That might keep them focused. Even though they did beat
29:00
Speaker 2: this Saint Louis team not that long ago, as far
29:04
Speaker 2: as Arizona is concerned. They used two relief pitchers yesterday,
29:09
Speaker 2: so they probably have a bullpen advantage here. Saint Louis
29:12
Speaker 2: used three. Arizona does have the higher ranked bullpen at six.
29:16
Speaker 2: The other Eerray still kind of worries me a little bit.
29:18
Speaker 2: It's over four. Saint Louis is worse though in both
29:22
Speaker 2: whip Andy I Ray they're twenty first in whip, so
29:25
Speaker 2: Arizona's got the bullpen edge. Arizona twenty third in offense,
29:29
Speaker 2: even after that outburst yesterday, Saint Louis twenty fifth. These
29:33
Speaker 2: teams have been struggling offensively, and Saint Louis has been
29:36
Speaker 2: struggling more than Arizona recently started pitching. On the surface,
29:41
Speaker 2: looks like it favored Saint Louis, but I actually think
29:43
Speaker 2: it might not. Arizona is going with Brandon Fott here
29:47
Speaker 2: hasn't had a good season, but his numbers are getting better.
29:50
Speaker 2: Four point five eighty Ray, one point three to one whip.
29:53
Speaker 2: He's been decent for them in the past, so I
29:55
Speaker 2: really don't know exactly what happened to him, and I
29:58
Speaker 2: think last year he might have been a lot better
30:00
Speaker 2: at home, but this year he's been better on the road,
30:03
Speaker 2: sort of four point h one roady I railed those
30:05
Speaker 2: road batting average is higher, though, so keep that in
30:08
Speaker 2: mind that not all is better on the road, but
30:10
Speaker 2: his era is better on the road. The thing that
30:12
Speaker 2: I do like about FOT, though, Arizona sent him to
30:16
Speaker 2: the miners in early June after a really bad outing
30:19
Speaker 2: against the Dodger I think he was coming out of
30:21
Speaker 2: the bullpen actually, and then they sent him to the
30:23
Speaker 2: miners after that Dodgers appearance. They brought him back up
30:26
Speaker 2: in late June, and he's made four starts since then.
30:29
Speaker 2: He's gone at least five innings in all four starts.
30:32
Speaker 2: He's allowed two or fewer and runs in all four starts,
30:35
Speaker 2: one of them against the Dodgers, by the way, and
30:39
Speaker 2: Arizona won all four of them, so and FOT actually
30:42
Speaker 2: picked up a win in all four of them. He
30:44
Speaker 2: had no wins on the season until then, and now
30:47
Speaker 2: he's got four, which I don't know what ESPN got
30:50
Speaker 2: rid of the record they used to show the record here.
30:52
Speaker 2: I don't care that much because I think the record
30:54
Speaker 2: can be like misleading, But they don't show the pitchers
30:57
Speaker 2: win loss record up in this like widget or whatever
31:01
Speaker 2: here anymore. I don't know, I don't know why that's
31:02
Speaker 2: the case or whatever you want to I don't even
31:06
Speaker 2: know what you call that thing, a call out maybe whatever. Anyway, Yeah,
31:12
Speaker 2: so Fott is pitching better, Like sending him to the
31:14
Speaker 2: miners seems to have gotten him to refocus or something
31:18
Speaker 2: like that. Although granted, he's pitched against some pretty bad
31:20
Speaker 2: offenses as he's come back, except for the Dodgers. But
31:23
Speaker 2: he did pitch well against the Dodgers. So the other
31:26
Speaker 2: ones were San Francisco, San Diego, Saint Louis, who he
31:30
Speaker 2: is pitching against now. So he just faced Saint Louis
31:33
Speaker 2: in that previous series that I mentioned, which was in Arizona,
31:36
Speaker 2: pitch well against him in that one. Is pitching well
31:39
Speaker 2: in general right now and against Saint Louis overall, he's
31:43
Speaker 2: been good against them. In sixty seven at bats two
31:46
Speaker 2: twenty four or average five sixty ops fifteen to two
31:49
Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. That's pretty good. So I think this
31:52
Speaker 2: might be a good matchup for him, and he is
31:54
Speaker 2: in decent form right now. I think Fott might actually
31:58
Speaker 2: pitch well here. Again. Signs seem to suggest that Michael mcgreevous,
32:03
Speaker 2: pitcher for Saint Louis. He looks like you'd want to
32:06
Speaker 2: back him because he's got the better numbers. Two point
32:08
Speaker 2: nine two ERA one point one whip. That's good. The
32:11
Speaker 2: advanced analytics guys don't like him though, because he doesn't
32:14
Speaker 2: strike guys out. But again, like if you're consistently not
32:18
Speaker 2: putting guys on base, I think there is something to that.
32:21
Speaker 2: And his win loss record is here, So what they're
32:24
Speaker 2: hiding five fots four and one we can't let the
32:27
Speaker 2: public know that. I don't know, but mcgreevy's record is there.
32:31
Speaker 2: Obviously he's not getting a lot of runs support at
32:33
Speaker 2: four and seven. That's why I said records can be misleading, right,
32:36
Speaker 2: Like that record doesn't tell you anything about how he's
32:39
Speaker 2: actually pitched. He's got a one point eight to ninety
32:42
Speaker 2: ray at home, so he's been good at home. He's
32:45
Speaker 2: been good recently as well. All of his starts this
32:47
Speaker 2: month have been good. He's allowed two or fewer and
32:50
Speaker 2: runs and all of them. He had a shutout in
32:52
Speaker 2: his last outing in June as well. This month, he's
32:55
Speaker 2: pitched against Atlanta, Milwaukee, Arizona, only Arizona out of those
33:00
Speaker 2: is a weak offense, and yes, he did just face
33:02
Speaker 2: Arizona did well, allowed one run in six and the
33:05
Speaker 2: third innings. So both starting pitchers just pitched in that
33:08
Speaker 2: last series. So they're both recently familiar to these opposing offenses.
33:13
Speaker 2: So I think that negates itself. I don't think it matters. Plus,
33:16
Speaker 2: these hitters have already seen these pitchers before. I've fought
33:19
Speaker 2: more so than McGreevy because he's been in the league longer.
33:22
Speaker 2: But for McGreevy, believe it or not, he's been bad
33:25
Speaker 2: against Arizona, even though they pitched well against him last time.
33:28
Speaker 2: His numbers against them aren't really that good. Although it's
33:31
Speaker 2: a small sample size of twenty two at bats two
33:33
Speaker 2: seventy three average eight to fifty ops. That's not great.
33:37
Speaker 2: Four strikeouts, one walk. So I'm not gonna play this game.
33:41
Speaker 2: But I kind of like Arizona here, man. I think
33:45
Speaker 2: they have the bullpen edged two and you get them
33:47
Speaker 2: as an underdog. I think I would I would take
33:50
Speaker 2: Arizona on the money line if I was gonna play
33:52
Speaker 2: this one. You get Saint Louis in a return home spot.
33:55
Speaker 2: It looks like McGreevy is the better of the two
33:57
Speaker 2: pitchers here, and maybe he is, but given one other
34:00
Speaker 2: showed you, they're both in good current form though, so
34:02
Speaker 2: I don't really want to fade either pitcher necessarily. But
34:05
Speaker 2: given what I just showed you, Fott has the better
34:09
Speaker 2: matchup numbers here, and he is pitching better than you
34:11
Speaker 2: would think right now. At least. McGreevy is the pitcher
34:14
Speaker 2: that's going deeper into games right now, though. And the
34:17
Speaker 2: money looks like it's back in Saint Louis. Sixty four
34:19
Speaker 2: percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on
34:22
Speaker 2: Saint Louis, so the money seems to disagree with me
34:24
Speaker 2: on that one, and they're at about minus one twenty
34:26
Speaker 2: something here. The total is interesting. I mean, the under
34:30
Speaker 2: seems to kind of make some sense to me here
34:33
Speaker 2: eighty five percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the
34:35
Speaker 2: cash on the over. But you got two struggling offenses here,
34:38
Speaker 2: and both pitchers might actually do okay here, although I
34:41
Speaker 2: don't love mcgreevy's matchup numbers, but they're both pitching well
34:45
Speaker 2: right now, so you could see this game be another
34:48
Speaker 2: low scoring one. The totals at eight, I mean, you
34:52
Speaker 2: could cut it in half and do the first five
34:54
Speaker 2: only and not worry about the Bullpens because Saint Louis
34:57
Speaker 2: especially isn't exactly a trustworthy both. So I could see
35:01
Speaker 2: a first five undermaking sense there as well. There are
35:04
Speaker 2: some options there. My first instinct on that game was
35:09
Speaker 2: Arizona though on the money line, which I think it's
35:12
Speaker 2: probably my preference there, but I think some sort of
35:14
Speaker 2: undermakes sense too. Then MLB Network has the remaining game here,
35:19
Speaker 2: Kansas City and Detroit, a divisional series beginning here. Detroit's
35:24
Speaker 2: coming up a big win over the Cubs. They were playing.
35:27
Speaker 2: I think it was a night game last night. I
35:29
Speaker 2: had it on over here for a little while. I
35:30
Speaker 2: was an ESPN game, I'm pretty sure. So that was
35:33
Speaker 2: a big game for Detroit. They beat the Cubs on
35:36
Speaker 2: National TV. Detroit could be in a let down here.
35:40
Speaker 2: I mean, they're returning over from a road trip too.
35:42
Speaker 2: They went to Anaheim and the Cubs. I know, the
35:44
Speaker 2: last leg of this journey is not bad going from
35:48
Speaker 2: Chicago back to Detroit, but still they've been away for
35:51
Speaker 2: a week basically, so stuff could pile up at home
35:53
Speaker 2: to have to do. Kansas City is the bottom feeder
35:56
Speaker 2: in the Al Central, so Detroit might overlook Kansas City here, man,
36:00
Speaker 2: after those big series, the big series against the Cubs,
36:03
Speaker 2: I should say, and Kansas City is coming into some
36:06
Speaker 2: maybe sneaky momentum because they do just sweep San Francisco.
36:10
Speaker 2: I told you San Francisco's not good. Kansas City has
36:14
Speaker 2: won five of their last six, all against the NL West,
36:17
Speaker 2: though they're probably not gonna be as good against their
36:20
Speaker 2: own division here. Really, I don't know what their division
36:23
Speaker 2: record is right now, but I'm assuming it's probably not good.
36:25
Speaker 2: But they're starting a road trip with momentum, so there
36:29
Speaker 2: is that that could be a positive for Kansas City
36:32
Speaker 2: starting a road trip. So I think Kansas City is
36:35
Speaker 2: in the better situational spot here. But they're going with
36:39
Speaker 2: sort of a bullpen ish game here against who I
36:42
Speaker 2: think is a good pitcher for Detroit. So the pitching
36:45
Speaker 2: matchup definitely favors Detroit, although you're having to pay a
36:48
Speaker 2: massive price for Detroit for that reason partially, So I
36:53
Speaker 2: don't know, man, I mean, it looks like a pitching
36:55
Speaker 2: mismatch to me in favor of Detroit, but the situation
36:58
Speaker 2: is against Detroit. Detroit used four relief pitchers yesterday, but
37:01
Speaker 2: Kansas City their bullpen is atrocious. They only use two
37:05
Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday. There's still the worst ranked bullpen in
37:08
Speaker 2: baseball and their second worst of the ERA to the A's.
37:14
Speaker 2: But they're bad. They're one of the bottom couple of bullpens.
37:16
Speaker 2: They're terrible. Detroit's bullpen is better than that. Obviously, they're nineteenth,
37:21
Speaker 2: and they might be a little bit better than that.
37:23
Speaker 2: They're not really that bad. Kansas City eighteenth in offense,
37:27
Speaker 2: Detroit nineteenth in offense or Kansas City has not done
37:29
Speaker 2: well on the road offensively, so that's kind of a
37:33
Speaker 2: concern with Kansas City here. And Detroit has been better
37:35
Speaker 2: at home than on the road. Kansas City has been
37:37
Speaker 2: bad both ways, but they're even worse on the road.
37:40
Speaker 2: And Kansas City is going with Randy dobe Knock dob
37:45
Speaker 2: Knock here. He's kind of a veteran pitcher, but he
37:48
Speaker 2: hasn't really pitched that much really in the majors, and
37:51
Speaker 2: he's been mostly a relief pitcher sometimes the starter. I know,
37:55
Speaker 2: he's got a one point nine to three ERA this
37:57
Speaker 2: year between the bullpen and the starting rotation, but he's
38:01
Speaker 2: not that good. One point five whip should tell you
38:04
Speaker 2: that but a lot of people just look at era,
38:07
Speaker 2: which you can't do. Man. You gotta see like, is
38:09
Speaker 2: he getting lucky, And the answer is yes he is.
38:12
Speaker 2: He's got a zero er on the road right now. Yeah,
38:14
Speaker 2: good luck with that. That's not going to remain in
38:17
Speaker 2: the case. You look at his career numbers, very very
38:19
Speaker 2: mediocre and in some cases pretty bad. He really hasn't
38:23
Speaker 2: lasted long in the major so I don't think he's good.
38:26
Speaker 2: He's made three appearances this year. He's kind of gone
38:29
Speaker 2: like a starter's workload. Though. They ramped him up into
38:32
Speaker 2: the ninety pitch marked last couple of outings against the
38:35
Speaker 2: Mets since San Diego, and he was okay, but his
38:38
Speaker 2: walk rate was way too high. His hit rate is alright,
38:41
Speaker 2: his strike out rate is very low. He doesn't strike
38:43
Speaker 2: guys out. His walk rate is way too high. I
38:46
Speaker 2: don't think he's a trustworthy pitcher. Man. He's going up
38:50
Speaker 2: against Detroit, who I presume hasn't really seen much of him. Yeah,
38:53
Speaker 2: Torres is the only hitter whos seeing him zero for
38:55
Speaker 2: two with two walks. Not much to read into there,
38:59
Speaker 2: But I don't think dob Knock is very trustworthy. Don't
39:02
Speaker 2: think he's good. Meanwhile, Troy Melton for Detroit, this guy
39:06
Speaker 2: has been good since they've had him up man and
39:08
Speaker 2: he mostly pitched out of the bullpen last year. But
39:10
Speaker 2: he put up some strong numbers last year, although his
39:13
Speaker 2: strikeout rate wasn't really that good. But generally he was
39:17
Speaker 2: good last year and he's been that this year too.
39:19
Speaker 2: He's made nine starts this year. He's got a one
39:21
Speaker 2: point eight ERA and point eight seven whip. Well, I
39:25
Speaker 2: think that's unsustainable. I think he's legit, dude. I think
39:28
Speaker 2: he's pretty good. He's a little bit worse at home
39:31
Speaker 2: two point four to two home. He are right, still good.
39:34
Speaker 2: Though he walked four guys last time out against La
39:38
Speaker 2: or sorry against Anaheim la of Anaheim, which not a
39:43
Speaker 2: great sign that he was a little wild there. But
39:45
Speaker 2: his wildness hasn't really been a factor too much this
39:48
Speaker 2: year so and even in that game, he only allowed
39:50
Speaker 2: one run, so the wildness hasn't really been an issue
39:53
Speaker 2: with him. He's really been unhittable. He's allowed he's allowed
39:56
Speaker 2: very few hits here. His walk rate isn't really too bad,
40:00
Speaker 2: strike out rate is okay. But yeah, generally I think
40:03
Speaker 2: he's pretty good. Generally, He's allowed more than touring runs
40:06
Speaker 2: only once in his nine starts here in Detroit has
40:09
Speaker 2: won seven of the nine games that he's started, so yeah,
40:13
Speaker 2: he's doing well. Against Kansas City, they have only four
40:19
Speaker 2: at bats against only three of their hitters of face,
40:21
Speaker 2: and they're one for four with a single from Massy
40:25
Speaker 2: not Thomas Massey spells it the wrong way to Michael Massey.
40:30
Speaker 2: So yeah, no strikeouts, no walks there from Kansas City's lineup. However, Detroit,
40:37
Speaker 2: obviously it looks like they have a huge starting pitching
40:39
Speaker 2: edge year. They do, but you have to lay minus
40:42
Speaker 2: two hundred with them. Man, with Melton on the mound,
40:45
Speaker 2: that's crazy. I know. I think he's good, but he's
40:49
Speaker 2: still pretty young and fairly unproven, and you're gonna have
40:52
Speaker 2: to lame minus two hundred to back him here. I
40:56
Speaker 2: want to do it, man, And Detroit's not in a
40:59
Speaker 2: good spot. Like I said, they're in a return home spot,
41:01
Speaker 2: so I would not be looking in that direction. I
41:04
Speaker 2: don't know if there's a great way to play this game,
41:06
Speaker 2: to be honest, the totals at eight and a half,
41:09
Speaker 2: the money looks like it's strongly backing the under in
41:12
Speaker 2: the game. I don't know about that either, man, I mean,
41:16
Speaker 2: tob Knock. I mean, maybe maybe the best way to
41:20
Speaker 2: play this, you know what, because Kansas City like looked
41:23
Speaker 2: pretty good in their last series and whatever, Melton is
41:26
Speaker 2: pretty unfamiliar with them, which should be an advantage of
41:28
Speaker 2: me might be able to shut them down. And I
41:31
Speaker 2: think you might want to go Kansas City under their
41:33
Speaker 2: team total. Maybe that might be the way to play this,
41:35
Speaker 2: go with Melton to just shut them down and then
41:38
Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about you know, is Detroit's
41:40
Speaker 2: hitting gonna be bad in the return home spot? Maybe
41:43
Speaker 2: it will be whatever. And you know, if you if
41:45
Speaker 2: you think Detroit's gonna win and the money's also coming
41:48
Speaker 2: in on the under Kansas City under their team total
41:51
Speaker 2: does make some sense here, although you're probably gonna need
41:54
Speaker 2: them to score fewer than three in the game though,
41:58
Speaker 2: which you know, something could go wrong and you could
42:01
Speaker 2: easily lose that bet. So I don't love that type
42:04
Speaker 2: of play, Like I when I'm playing, if I was
42:06
Speaker 2: gonna play team totals at all, I prefer to find
42:09
Speaker 2: a spot where I like one of the better teams
42:11
Speaker 2: to go over their team total, you know what I mean?
42:14
Speaker 2: Because really the unders for the team totals are just
42:18
Speaker 2: like there's so little room for error there, you know
42:21
Speaker 2: what I mean, And it could be literally an error
42:23
Speaker 2: that could do you win. That's all I got, man,
42:26
Speaker 2: that's the whole board. Today. There's no WNBA, I believe,
42:29
Speaker 2: because they're going into the All Star break. Here. Let
42:32
Speaker 2: me saying, I know yesterday I wasn't great with the WNBA,
42:35
Speaker 2: but we did get our win with that one play
42:36
Speaker 2: with Phoenix, so I was right about that, So I'm
42:38
Speaker 2: happy about that. I think I was probably only right
42:42
Speaker 2: about maybe half of those games. Three of the six
42:46
Speaker 2: I forget whatever looking at just the sides. Yeah. So
42:48
Speaker 2: they're going into the All Star break on Saturday. I
42:51
Speaker 2: know nobody's gonna watch that crap, and then WNBA will
42:54
Speaker 2: resume again on Tuesday with five more games, so we'll
42:57
Speaker 2: be back to WNBA then tomorrow and over the weekend
43:01
Speaker 2: we'll have a full slate of baseball to have to
43:03
Speaker 2: break down. That's gonna do it. I did find one
43:05
Speaker 2: angle that I like enough for play today Toronto First
43:09
Speaker 2: five money Light as we were going, nobody's gonna want it, man,
43:13
Speaker 2: and you know me, I like to be on I
43:15
Speaker 2: like to be on plays that nobody wants. Those are
43:17
Speaker 2: some of the better ones. When it's like, you know,
43:19
Speaker 2: I'm gonna give you a play on the Mets or
43:21
Speaker 2: something like that, it's disgusting. You know, those tend to
43:23
Speaker 2: be the better ones. So let's get this done. Hopefully
43:27
Speaker 2: we get a win here and have a winning day
43:29
Speaker 2: with that one play. And if I was gonna add
43:33
Speaker 2: anything else to my card, I think it would be
43:35
Speaker 2: the Braves team total over over four I think is
43:39
Speaker 2: what it was. Like I said it minus or was
43:41
Speaker 2: three and a half? No, it must have been four.
43:44
Speaker 2: Maybe it was four and a half. Actually I think
43:46
Speaker 2: it was probably four and a half minus one thirty.
43:48
Speaker 2: But they could definitely get there with that one against
43:51
Speaker 2: Griffin Canning. So that would have been my other when
43:54
Speaker 2: you know a lot of Again, maybe I should do
43:56
Speaker 2: more team totals. I don't know. Baseball is the sport
43:59
Speaker 2: that I really do these, like full breakdown, So the
44:01
Speaker 2: other sports I'm like almost entirely just a side guy.
44:05
Speaker 2: So I'm a side piece, that's all I am. That's
44:08
Speaker 2: gonna do it. Learn it tone on Twitter, Learn it
44:10
Speaker 2: tone on Instagram, Like subscribe to the channel here, listen
44:14
Speaker 2: on an audio Apple Spotify. We're at five hundred subscribers here,
44:17
Speaker 2: so I can monetize now, you know, maybe we could
44:21
Speaker 2: boost this thing. Maybe people don't want to watch my
44:23
Speaker 2: show because you can't watch it like after the fact. Well,
44:26
Speaker 2: I mean you could just to see how I analyze games.
44:29
Speaker 2: You know, it still kind of makes sense to go
44:32
Speaker 2: back and like watch some of the shows that have
44:35
Speaker 2: our you know, where I'm talking about games that have
44:36
Speaker 2: already happened, you know. But whatever, it is kind of
44:40
Speaker 2: a time dependent show, so you got to kind of
44:41
Speaker 2: catch it live or like right after I do it.
44:45
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, maybe I need to branch out
44:48
Speaker 2: and do some other content and get more eyes on it. Whatever.
44:52
Speaker 2: But we're on app, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker on audio covered
44:55
Speaker 2: in You because my ukulele channel on YouTube. My voice
44:59
Speaker 2: maybe feeling a little bit better right now. I don't know, man,
45:02
Speaker 2: it's really it's really off. And on uh Patreon dot com,
45:07
Speaker 2: slash learned to Toad, I can't even remember what I
45:10
Speaker 2: have to plug. Loser casts every Tuesday night and the
45:13
Speaker 2: New York Giants g spot podcast. That's gonna do it.
45:17
Speaker 2: And if you subscribe here you'll get notified when I'm
45:19
Speaker 2: gonna do any extra stuff, which I don't know, if
45:22
Speaker 2: maybe I'm gonna start making some of that member content
45:24
Speaker 2: or something or One thing that I did consider is
45:27
Speaker 2: like what if I go live with these shows like
45:30
Speaker 2: earlier or something, and or like maybe even at night
45:35
Speaker 2: for like page rounds only, but at night, you don't know,
45:37
Speaker 2: you don't really have enough information yet, which is why
45:40
Speaker 2: I kind of think it's advantageous to do this in
45:42
Speaker 2: the morning, because you I think the morning is kind
45:44
Speaker 2: of that sweet spot where you have enough information but
45:47
Speaker 2: the lines have it, you know, fully adjusted, and you
45:50
Speaker 2: can beat some of the line moves. Although sometimes I
45:52
Speaker 2: would say, you know, if you sometimes it is better
45:55
Speaker 2: to bet like during the day though on certain bets though,
45:58
Speaker 2: as you've seen from my show, like sometimes I'll tell
46:01
Speaker 2: you to like wait and whatever all though usually I'm like, yeah, whatever,
46:03
Speaker 2: just fire on this game in the morning here and
46:06
Speaker 2: to hope that the professionals agree with you know, know,
46:08
Speaker 2: you'll beat the line move. But what I don't know.
46:10
Speaker 2: I gotta figure out something here. I'm rambling. That's gonna
46:13
Speaker 2: do it. Happy Thursday everyone. I thought this was gonna
46:16
Speaker 2: be about a half hour show. Today. Oh well, Garrett,
46:20
Speaker 2: what's up? Man? Sail for Cy Young? He's probably in
46:25
Speaker 2: like the top five. But I mean, Missierowski has gotta
46:29
Speaker 2: be like the odds on favorite right now. Let me
46:32
Speaker 2: see what are the odds right now? I don't think
46:34
Speaker 2: Sale is gonna do it? Man, Uh, Missierowski right now
46:38
Speaker 2: is he's not even just the odds on favorite. He's
46:41
Speaker 2: minus three sixty. Missierowski is, like I've been saying, Originally
46:47
Speaker 2: I thought it would be Skeens. Skeens has fallen completely off.
46:50
Speaker 2: Miss is like the dominant favorite right now to win
46:53
Speaker 2: that thing. Sanchez, because he was recently bad, is at
46:57
Speaker 2: plus five hundred now or sore between plus five hundred
47:01
Speaker 2: plus six fifty. Chris Sale is plus one thousand plus
47:04
Speaker 2: twelve thousand, and Zach Wheeler's similar plus twelve plus twelve
47:09
Speaker 2: hundred excuse me, Sales plus one thousand plus twelve hundred,
47:13
Speaker 2: Wheelers plus twelve hundred and plus sixteen hundred, depending on
47:16
Speaker 2: the book you're looking for. So it's definitely a long
47:20
Speaker 2: shot for Sale. I mean, I would not put money
47:22
Speaker 2: on it, you know, I just think I don't know, man,
47:27
Speaker 2: I mean, he's well, you know what I don't know.
47:31
Speaker 2: Because Missierowski is so young, he hasn't pitched like an
47:34
Speaker 2: entire season in the majors yet, so he might wear
47:37
Speaker 2: down a little bit with how hard he throws, So
47:39
Speaker 2: you might be maybe there is something to that, and
47:43
Speaker 2: maybe Sanchez is starting to pitch poorly too. You know,
47:46
Speaker 2: I don't think Sale is gonna win. But if you
47:49
Speaker 2: wanted to put some money on the on sale at
47:51
Speaker 2: ten to one, twelve to one, I don't know. Maybe
47:54
Speaker 2: it's not the worst idea I've ever heard. That's what
47:57
Speaker 2: I'll say about that. I'm not really a I'm not
48:00
Speaker 2: a cy young better though, that's gonna do it. Peace,
48:08
Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
48:12
Speaker 1: Your name steal mean something to somebody for show. Put
48:16
Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me, now, hold.
48:24
Speaker 5: On, hold on nothing nice, now, hold on, hold on.
48:36
Speaker 4: Let me for you.
48:40
Speaker 3: That bites hard, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
48:51
Speaker 3: hold on and stay with me now.