Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 437 - 1/21/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 437 - 1/21/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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  54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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  welcome to episode 437 of the All.
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  Systems Go sports betting podcast.
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  Powered. By rhythm, I am your host Josh.
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  Applebaum, what's going on? Everyone?
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  Happy Wednesday. It's officially hump day.
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  That means we. Are halfway through our work.
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  Week. More importantly, guys, the
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  countdown continues to NFL Championship Sunday.
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  We are now just four days away from Patriots, Broncos, Rams,
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  Seattle and I have a thought. On both these games and then
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  also have an official best bet for you because as we like to do
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  on the pod, we're trying to pick.
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  Off the best numbers, I think that's a huge.
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  Part of being a. Sports better, Obviously we have
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  our. Philosophies and fundamentals.
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  And things that we lean on, on strategy wise trying to respect.
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  Line movement of. Course.
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  Focus on split system matches. Figure out what.
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  Rhythm and juice. Reel are saying in terms of the
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  AI models and the sharp motion indicators.
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  But another big part of that is just trying to get the best of
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  the number. It can be very, very important
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  because again, you know when you're sitting at, you know, A7
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  versus 7 1/2 or 7 versus 6 1/2 or. 3 1/2 versus 3 or 2 1/2
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  versus. Three.
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  Again, these are key numbers. These are obvious situations
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  where a half point could be a difference, but really again,
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  the whole exercise of betting games.
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  Early is saying to yourself. OK, I better jump.
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  On this now. Because it looks like it's
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  trending in this. Direction.
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  Therefore I should. Play the system.
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  Match now and try to. Get the best of the number.
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  So I do have again a thought. On both these games.
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  And then an official best bet, which will be the first one of
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  Championship Sunday. Also, we're going to get right
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  back to college. Basketball I do have 3 college
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  basketball bets. For you tonight, believe it or
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  not, two of them are favorites. Laying points with some sharp
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  line moves as well as sharp mush edges and good bet splits.
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  And then also we have. A dog to fave.
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  Although you might. Be able to still.
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  Get a point, point and 1/2. This line's kind of been all
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  over the place. So a three pack of college hoops
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  on a big college basketball Wednesday.
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  I think there's about 60 games overall.
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  And then of course, an early bet here for championship Sunday.
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  And also, I'll mention, be careful out there.
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  I'm seeing a lot of reports. Of a huge snowstorm, ice storm,
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  it's. Going to be freezing.
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  Looks like kind of the southern. Part of the country.
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  Might like I was looking like I think it was like Tennessee or
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  some of these southern states might get a ton of snow.
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  So if you're. Like me in New England.
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  It's cold, we already got about a foot of snow, but we might be
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  snowed in for the next few days and leading up to Championship
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  Sunday. So.
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  So stay get get your your hard salami.
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  Your milk, your wonder bread. And hunker down, we can bet on
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  some games. Now looking back to our last
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  night guys, I would argue one of the more.
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  Frustrating nights in recent memory.
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  O and 3 -, 3 units. So just a strikeout, which
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  again, is never fun, but. If we look at not just the end.
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  Result, but kind of the process it's.
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  Annoying because on the one hand, lost Mizzou at the buzzer,
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  remember? Missouri was.
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  A dog to fave line move opened about getting a point and flip.
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  To 2 -, 1 minus. 1 1/2. You saw that line movement.
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  In their favor and Mizzou had a lead by one point late and then
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  with like 6 seconds left opposite.
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  Side there, Georgia hits a bucket and we lose at the
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  buzzer. So annoying.
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  Also some CLV because I was hovering around a pick one and
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  ended up closing 1 1/2 so that was annoying.
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  Wake Forest no show. Getting rolled by like 12.
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  Points. That was not fun either against
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  SMU. But the coup de grace?
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  The most frustrating play I've experienced in quite a while.
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  Was Colorado so. If you remember, Colorado does
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  not cover the. Spread.
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  They lose by 6 points, but remember.
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  A lot of us got the plus 5 1/2. And did you guys see where that
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  line closed? We talked 5 1/2 five.
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  Even 4 1/2. That line closed with Colorado
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  +4 or plus 3 1/2. So once again, this is the
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  frustrating part of sports betting.
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  Like if you asked me, would I rather?
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  Lose in a blowout. And never have a chance.
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  Or beat the closing line and be right there until the very end
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  and lose. At the very end, I don't know
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  both losses or losses, but it just.
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  Seems more frustrating. When you do your part as a
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  better and the team on the floor let's you down.
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  What really was annoying aside from the public 83.
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  Percent of bets on Kansas and Line went to Colorado Blueprint.
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  Play Colorado on the points. One was that there's an.
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  Opportunity to cover the spread. On the final free throw.
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  Colorado was down by. 6 points. If you had a. 5 1/2 Like me, all
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  the Colorado player had to do was make the free throw.
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  You lose by 5. Then ended up not fouling.
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  They dribbled it out. What?
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  Happens, of course, he misses. The free throw, so lose by 6,
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  lose the 5 1/2, so that wasn't fun.
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  And I will admit I don't like it when people complain.
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  About the referees, but sometimes.
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  It's warranted because if you're watching that game like I was,
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  Fran Fraschilla. Who I think is awesome, he is
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  just a great. I'm.
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  Pretty sure his Fran Fraschilla, but he's just an awesome.
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  Analyst, and he was. Calling the game.
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  And a lot of times they'll be like a.
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  Bad call, and you know you'll hear the.
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  You know the announcer be like, Oh yeah, tough call.
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  You know, again they. Applaud the rafts.
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  Though they'd get it right most of the.
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  Time, which is probably true, but those refs were just
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  incompetent. Again, you look at #1 there was
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  a play where there was a goal tend.
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  Where it was a clear. Goal, tend and.
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  Colorado would have gotten the points.
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  Instead, they don't. Call it a goal.
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  Tend they go. The other way in Kansas scores.
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  But the one that was really, really difficult, that kind of
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  lost the game for. US lost the cover.
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  Is that Kansas? Scored, I think it was.
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  Maybe a minute left or something like that.
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  Maybe a minute and 1/2 it was. Toward the end of the game, but.
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  I and might have even. Been on that no call with the
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  the the goal tend. They go run across the the
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  court. Score a fast break point.
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  But then the same guy. Melvin, counsel, junior, I
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  believe. After he scores a.
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  Layup on a fast break. He's still out of bounds,
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  reaches his hand and steals the inbound and scores again.
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  But here's the thing, When he touched the ball and stole it,
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  he was out of bounds. He was underneath the opposing
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  net. So not only did he.
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  You know, steal it and score. But it was.
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  Clearly that it should not have counted instead the idiot refs.
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  Allow it. And Fran Fraschilla went nuts
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  and I'm like, hell yeah, Fran Fraschilla.
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  I don't know. He probably didn't.
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  I'm not going to say he had, you know, Colorado on the points
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  with me, but he was just remarking about how you cannot
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  miss that call. How do you miss that call?
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  Idiot ref was right there 5 feet away.
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  Allowed it didn't didn't pull the whistle and say it's out of
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  bounds. So again.
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  Mizzou losing at the buzzer. Awful refs in a missed free
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  throw to lose Colorado. Those were a couple rough ones
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  last night. So again, sometimes you make
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  sharp bets and they lose. Sometimes.
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  You get beat by the closing line, you get lucky and you win.
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  But it's always annoying when the refs don't call it right and
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  screw you. So again, that's that's my I
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  guess my, you know my. My emotion getting into it.
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  But I just, I was so annoyed and I'm like.
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  Go Yeah. Hell yeah.
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  Franfis she'll I hammer them because those refs were so
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  freaking incompetent and cost us Colorado so.
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  Again, I'm a data guy. But I am a human, I have
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  emotions and that really pissed me off with the refereeing in
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  that game. But anyway, guys, O and 3 -, 3
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  units can't get it back, can't change it.
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  It's. Already happened.
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  So what are we going to do? We're.
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  Going to claw our way back, hopefully post a winning night
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  for tonight. So with that being said, let's
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  dive right in three pack of college and then we'll get to
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  our championship Sunday play. Which I'm excited to share with
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  you. So first one on the board for
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  me. I want to talk about an early
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  game. Texas and Kentucky, one of the
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  most heavily backed games of the night, actually happens to be
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  the most. Heavily backed game of the night
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  and I think we got an. Opportunity to.
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  Fade A trendy dog. So 7:00 Eastern Time Texas
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  Longhorns come in 11 and seven just saw their two game win
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  streak come to an end. They.
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  Lost to Texas A&M. 74 to 70 lost out right as a 4 1/2 point home
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  favorite. Meanwhile, Kentucky 12 and 613
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  straight, however, and just upset Tennessee 80 to 78 one
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  outright as a 5 1/2. Point Rd.
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  Dog so. What do you see across the
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  market here? Will this game open with
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  Kentucky listed as a 6 1/2 point home favorite?
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  And the public says these teams are relatively even, and that
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  line's a little high. Texas is going to cover.
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  Texas may even win this game. However, even though you're
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  getting nearly 2/3 of spread bets taking the points with
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  Texas, which woo woo, makes them a very trendy dog.
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  We've seen this line pretty much stay right where it's at -6 and
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  half. Kentucky open still -6 and half.
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  So right off the bat, if the public's taking Texas and the
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  points, why isn't this line down to six or five and half or five?
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  The fact that it stayed right where it's at.
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  And if you actually look a little bit closer, not only has
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  it stayed the same, which would be a sharp line freeze public
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  Texas, but oddsmakers don't want to drop that line to give.
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  Out a better number. To contrarian, fade the trendy.
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  Dog Kentucky backers is the. Fact that we have Kentucky
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  juiced up -6 1/2 - 115 Some shops have even touched as high
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  as -7 or even 7 1/2 at. Times we've.
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  Never seen the sign get down to six so reading between the
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  lines. Publix Texas but this line is
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  either stayed the same or been juiced up and moved toward
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  Kentucky. That tells me again sharp line
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  freeze smart money here going with Kentucky Kentucky would be
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  a classic fade the trendy dog play getting only about 1/3 of
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  tickets and most heavily back game of the night.
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  So even if you. Take away the line, freeze.
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  Sharp liability. Movement juiced up toward
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  Kentucky. You're still just fading the
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  public by. Betting against the trendy dog
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  Longhorns. I really like this over at Circa
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  Texas. Excuse me, Kentucky is only
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  getting 27% of spread bets, but 76% of spread dollars, a huge
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  low, bets higher. Dollar split in their favor, so
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  that tells me sharps out in. Vegas also.
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  Laying the points with Kentucky. Kentucky has some clear
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  advantages here, stat wise. Better effective field goal
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  percentage, 54th versus 82nd. Better defensive efficiency 33rd
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  versus 100. And 1st.
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  And limit their opponents to. A better effective field goal
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  percentage 56 versus 96 lastly. Saw that rhythm, did have
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  Kentucky -6.8, so nothing huge. But closer to 7.
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  And we did have a 32% pretty big 32.
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  Percent sharp mush edge in favor of the Kentucky Wildcats, so 32%
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  more of the sharper winning players are laying it with
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  Kentucky. So you got it all up here, guys.
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  Most heavily back game of the night, but we can still go
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  contrarian and take advantage of a line freeze slash RLM play
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  with Kentucky again. Public says go take the points.
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  Looks to me like the markets telling you to lay the point.
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  So I'm going Kentucky. I got a minus. 6 1/2 I got -110
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  a little bit earlier today. Looks like -6 1/2 -. 115 might
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  be. Your best opportunity, but a lot
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  of books are creeping up towards 7, so if you're going to play
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  it, at least try to get that 6 1/2 before it rises.
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  Next one for you, another very heavily bet. 7:00 Game let's
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  talk. Notre Dame visiting North
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  Carolina. Now.
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  Notre Dame comes in 10 and eight on the year, but they're in a
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  bit of a skid. They've dropped four in a row.
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  Just lost to Vatech. 89 to 76 did not cover as a. 6 and half
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  Point Rd. dog. Meanwhile, UNC, 14 and 4 on the
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  year, ranked 22nd. However, they have lost three of
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  their last four. And just came up.
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  Short against Cal 84 to 70. Eight they were favored by 6 and
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  half on the road lost outright so we've.
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  Seen across the market here this game Open North Carolina listed
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  as a 11 1/2 point home favorite and I hope that you guys either
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  sign up to get the all systems go best bet picks.
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  From Juice Real or rather sharp report.
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  Because I was talking about how the early move was toward North
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  Carolina -11 1/2 up to minus. 12 and a.
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  Half and at the time not only did you see the line tick up
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  toward UNC, but UNC was really juiced -12 1/2 -, 115 -, 120
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  guys. I am now seeing UNC up to -13
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  1/2, some shops even -14 so if you jumped on that 12 1/2 like I
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  did earlier, you are loving the fact that I've seen.
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  This line tick up now to 13 1/2. Again, a lot of books are.
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  I don't even think you get a 13 anymore.
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  You might be able to find a. 13 at Caesar's.
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  But it's mostly. 13 1/2. Some even fourteens.
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  But again, the 13. And a halfs are juiced up -115
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  -, 120 like we may close at 14. So I laid the points of the UNC
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  line move in their favor. Nothing in terms of buyback on
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  Notre Dame. The splits look pretty good on
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  UNC 69% bets. 83% dollars at. DK at circa 64% bets 92%
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  dollars. So again, I know it's a big
• 12:40
  number, but we are low bets, higher dollars.
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  Line move toward UNC now. I do have UNC with the better
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  offensive efficiency 33rd versus 103rd better defensive
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  efficiency 50. First versus 60th, better
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  effective. Field goal percentage 49th
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  versus 100. And 10th.
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  Better offensive rebound percentage, 72nd.
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  Verse one O 5th. And they take better care of the
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  ball. Tar Heels ranked 45th and
• 13:05
  fewest. Turnover percentage versus 250th
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  for the Irish, they turn it over quite a bit.
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  Rhythm does have UNC. Favored by 14.
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  That's another thing when I put in.
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  UNC minus. 12 1/2 earlier today it was low bets, higher dollars
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  line. Move and rhythm was 14.
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  Still at 14, so again, if you missed it, 13 half looks to be
• 13:23
  your best number. North Carolina, by the way, a.
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  Perfect 11 and O at home. Notre Dame two and three on the
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  road. And you have an. 8% sharp mush
• 13:31
  edge on North Carolina so. Hopefully this is a blowout.
• 13:34
  Win, you know, 20 points North Carolina.
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  Carolina wins 80 to 60. But I am laying it with UNC.
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  Again, I hope you got the 12 1/2. 13 1/2 now is your best
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  price. You can look at it one of two
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  ways 1 You got to pay a bigger premium here lay a bigger
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  number. But why are you now laying a 13
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  and half first 12 and half? Because tells me smart money
• 13:54
  continues to pour in on North Carolina.
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  So North Carolina laying it. UNC 12 1/2 might be laying 13
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  and half now. Last bed of the night, 11:00
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  Eastern Time. Staying up late.
• 14:07
  To sweat this one, San. Diego State and Grand Canyon.
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  11. O'clock game here Tonight we got
• 14:13
  San Diego State 13 and 4:00 on. The year they've won.
• 14:16
  Seven straight just held off new.
• 14:18
  Mexico 83 to 70. 9 didn't. Cover though as a 5 point home
• 14:22
  favorite, you know. Grand Canyon?
• 14:24
  Can anyone name me their mascot? The Lopes.
• 14:27
  The Antelopes, They're 11 and six they've won.
• 14:30
  Three of their last four and they just beat Utah State 84741
• 14:34
  outright. Pull off the upset.
• 14:36
  As a 5 1/2 point Rd. dog. So what do we see across the
• 14:39
  market here? Well, this game opened with San
• 14:42
  Diego State listed as a 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite and public
• 14:46
  says San Diego State. All day again, they've been in a
• 14:48
  lot of NCAA. Tournaments.
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  Kind of a trendy team, but public remembers that.
• 14:52
  Grand Canyon. Tiny little.
• 14:54
  Little school, although they've made the tournament last couple
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  years. But anyway, around 2/3 of bets
• 14:59
  are going. San Diego State, however.
• 15:02
  We've seen this line basically go dog to fave toward Grand
• 15:06
  Canyon, and again, this line's all over the place.
• 15:08
  Because a lot of shops are now Grand Canyon -1.
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  Some shops are grand. Canyon -1 and a.
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  Half I did jump on Grand Canyon plus 1 1/2 at -118.
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  Now that is available at Bet MGM.
• 15:22
  So I always shop around and I was thinking to myself.
• 15:24
  OK, do I just? Get a better.
• 15:26
  You know, money line price. And just lay it to win.
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  Or do I pay a? Little more juice to get the 1
• 15:31
  1/2. I figured I might as well just
• 15:33
  pay a little more juice. Get the 1 1/2 off chance they
• 15:36
  lose by 1. But either way, we have mostly a
• 15:38
  dog to fave line move toward Grand Canyon even though the
• 15:41
  public. Is hammering the Aztecs?
• 15:43
  Grand Canyon is one of the top bet against the public plays.
• 15:46
  This is a heavily bet Fox Sports 1 game.
• 15:49
  Last game of the night. Publix all over Aztec so.
• 15:52
  I want to go Lopes also at circa 33% bets. 69% dollars on Grand
• 15:59
  Canyon so good low bets. Higher dollar split again from
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  the sharps out in Vegas. Grand Canyon does have the
• 16:05
  better offensive rebound percentage, 113th versus 100
• 16:09
  and. 87th. But her free throw?
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  Shooting 49th versus 121st, but her offensive rebound percentage
• 16:15
  allowed. Basically, they don't allow
• 16:16
  nearly as many offensive boards as as the Aztecs.
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  They ranked 29th versus 182nd for San Diego State.
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  So again, late night game heavily bet public San Diego
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  State. But we got dog to fave toward
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  Grand Canyon. So again, you have some.
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  Options here if. You want to go money line.
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  It's a very short like -110 win the game, but I did.
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  Pay a little more. I figured, hey bet MGM is giving
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  me the plus 1 1/2 -, 118 so I did take the 1 1/2 - 118.
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  But to make everyone happy, how about you win the damn?
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  Game Grand Canyon. Let's go Grand Canyon, Let's go
• 16:51
  Lopes. Win the game.
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  That'll be nice for everybody. So, Grand Canyon, Kentucky.
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  Laying it UNC laying it. Let's try to get 2 out of three.
• 16:59
  Now the drama is about to descend upon us because we are
• 17:04
  in the. Final Four.
• 17:06
  With the winners of each. Conference going to the Super.
• 17:08
  Bowl, of course. And I got an overarching thought
• 17:11
  for you for both these games, and I have an official.
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  Best bet? Because one, I think we should
• 17:16
  jump. On now the other one I want to
• 17:17
  wait and see if it moves. My first thought overall, just
• 17:21
  an overarching thought, is that we have two insane.
• 17:25
  Contrarian opportunities for these games New England at
• 17:28
  Denver right now, the Patriots at DraftKings 77% of spread bets
• 17:33
  hovering around -5 1/2 - 5 - 4 1/2.
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  Rams Seahawks 84. Percent of spread bets at
• 17:41
  DraftKings laying it with Seattle -2 1/2.
• 17:45
  So again, before we even talk splits.
• 17:48
  Or I guess we just talked half the splits that the bets, but?
• 17:52
  Before we even talk line movement, system matches, I know
• 17:55
  historical spots, all that. Kind of stuff.
• 17:56
  The weather yadda yadda yadda the.
• 17:59
  If you're contrarian like me, like to bet against the.
• 18:01
  Public You have two obvious obvious place here, which would
• 18:05
  be. Broncos plus the points.
• 18:07
  And Rams plus the points. Now I'm.
• 18:09
  Going to tell you my first official bet and.
• 18:11
  I'm going to tell you why I'm going to wait on the other game.
• 18:13
  My first official bet just to prove to you that I do not
• 18:17
  always bet my favorite teams. Just because they're my favorite
• 18:19
  teams. When they're sharp, I do,
• 18:21
  because remember New England, we.
• 18:22
  Laid the three they were -2 1/2. Up to three 3 1/2.
• 18:26
  You had a lot of sharp angles there to go Pats against the
• 18:29
  Texans and they won uncovered. But as a sport's better.
• 18:32
  Sometimes you bet against your favorite team.
• 18:34
  Sometimes. You bet on them.
• 18:35
  But it all depends on the. Situation and believe it or not
• 18:38
  here guys. Even though I'm a Pats fan, hope
• 18:40
  they win the game. I hope they win by 4 or less.
• 18:43
  Because I'm going Denver plus 5 1/2.
• 18:47
  I'll tell you why. Number one, this is an
• 18:51
  unbelievable contrarian plate. We just talked about this a
• 18:54
  second ago, but the Broncos? Are only getting 23.
• 18:56
  Percent of spread bets no. One wants.
• 18:58
  To bet Denver. Big reason.
• 19:00
  Is. Bonex got hurt.
• 19:02
  Jared Stidham is a starting quarterback.
• 19:04
  So just from the standpoint of extreme, again, these are the
• 19:07
  other than the Super Bowl, these are going to be the two most
• 19:09
  heavily bet. Games of the Year.
• 19:10
  And when you have a huge postseason game, I liken this a
• 19:15
  little bit. It's not really sharp in terms
• 19:17
  of line move. We'll see how it.
• 19:18
  Goes between now and Sunday. But you're kind of looking at
• 19:21
  this Denver plus the points similar to.
• 19:23
  Miami plus the points against. Against Indiana on the
• 19:27
  championship. Game the other night.
• 19:29
  Heavily bet primetime everybody. And their mothers playing the.
• 19:32
  Team A, We want to go Team B. So from a contrarian angle.
• 19:37
  There's no way I'm going Patriots laying it on the road,
• 19:39
  getting 77% of bets. I love Denver in the spot, 23%
• 19:44
  of spread bets. That's the first thing.
• 19:45
  Contrarian opportunity, Hall of Fame opportunity to bet against
• 19:49
  the public with Denver. Second angle for me is that if
• 19:53
  you look over at circa only 25. Percent of spread bets are on
• 19:58
  Denver. Very contrarian.
• 20:00
  But 59% of spread dollars? Are on Denver.
• 20:04
  So again, DraftKings, it's everybody on everybody on New
• 20:07
  England. Go contrarian against the
• 20:09
  public. Low bets higher.
• 20:10
  Dollars Sharp split at Circa out in Vegas on Denver.
• 20:13
  That's the second angle telling. Me.
• 20:14
  Denver's the play. 3rd angle the line is coming back.
• 20:18
  Believe it or not, toward Denver.
• 20:20
  A lot of these books opened, you know, opener was kind of all
• 20:24
  over the place. I saw some open -4 and half get
• 20:27
  up to five and half for New England.
• 20:28
  I saw one book even open at 6:00 Get down to 5 1/2 now. 4 1/2
• 20:33
  Five New England, but either way there aren't many. 5 1/2 left.
• 20:38
  A lot of these books are getting down to 5.
• 20:39
  Or 4 1/2. So it's not like this line is
• 20:41
  going up to six or seven. No, it's starting to creep back
• 20:45
  down toward Denver, which is very important.
• 20:47
  Because public is all over New England.
• 20:49
  So we got super contrarian low bets, higher dollars at Circa,
• 20:53
  we got line moving back. Toward the contrarian side, we.
• 20:56
  Also have some good rhythm edges.
• 20:58
  Rhythm Three recommended plays. Denver.
• 21:01
  Plus 3.6 Denver plus 2.7 Denver Green Star plus 3.8.
• 21:09
  So Denver basically a field goal, you know, 3-3 and a half,
• 21:13
  four point game. We can get a 5 1/2.
• 21:16
  That's my other angle. You got to.
• 21:17
  Get the best of the number, I'm looking across the market.
• 21:19
  Right now and right now. I only see two books giving you
• 21:22
  plus 5 1/2 FanDuel and DraftKings.
• 21:25
  FanDuel is plus. 5 1/2 - 118 DraftKings is plus. 5 1/2
• 21:30
  Denver. -115 I jumped on the plus 5 1/2 - 1. 15 at DraftKings
• 21:36
  and again, part of this bet is trying to beat the closing line
• 21:39
  like I would. Like nothing more than all of us
• 21:42
  to get the five and a half and then give it a couple.
• 21:44
  Days there's no more 5 1/2 the hooks are all gone.
• 21:46
  I'll be a good sign I. Also like the fact that Circa is
• 21:50
  down to 4 1/2. Circa is a very very sharp book.
• 21:53
  Like if Circa was at six, that would make me be a little bit
• 21:56
  weary of Denver, but the fact that Circa.
• 21:58
  Caters to wise guys. Is down to 4 1/2.
• 22:01
  They're telling you we're. Not giving you 5 1/2 of Denver,
• 22:03
  that's too much. So a little bit of edge of an
• 22:06
  edge off of circa. Next we have the ultimate just
• 22:10
  buy on bad news, sell on good news.
• 22:12
  When I was when I was doing the sports betting and I started to.
• 22:15
  Learn about contrary and betting when I got my first job at
• 22:17
  Sports Insights. It kind of changed everything I
• 22:20
  look at in terms of sports betting and you know.
• 22:23
  It always used to be like ride the hot.
• 22:25
  Hand then it's like sell high. On on a Hot Hand.
• 22:28
  Bad news. You want to fade a team of bad
• 22:30
  news? No, you want to.
• 22:31
  Buy on bad news because they're probably undervalued so with.
• 22:35
  Bonex getting hurt instead of, you know, starting.
• 22:37
  Everyone's saying Pat's are going to blow him out.
• 22:40
  We want to go. With the go the other way,
• 22:42
  extract some value to go the other way and sell high on New
• 22:46
  England and buy low on Denver. Drake Mays 1st Rd. game.
• 22:50
  In the postseason. Again, he had a bunch of
• 22:53
  turnovers in both games. Drove me nuts here, but that's a
• 22:57
  tough spot, especially going to Mile High with the altitude.
• 23:00
  And if we look at our friends at Juice Real, a 12% sharp mush
• 23:05
  edge on Denver. So you might have.
• 23:09
  Been Here's the other one Playoff dogs since 201747 and
• 23:14
  26. ATS 64 percent, 25% ROI.
• 23:18
  Home. Playoff dogs Denver spot here 3
• 23:20
  and 1 ATS this year 12 and 3 ATS 80% Fifty 6% ROI since 2017.
• 23:27
  So again, I may have. Had you at?
• 23:29
  23%. Which you know, and and the
• 23:31
  breakdown there. We're taking the 23.
• 23:33
  Percent contrarian play in a heavily back game.
• 23:36
  But I think we also have other reasons to buy low on Denver and
• 23:39
  hopefully getting the five and half right now will beat the
• 23:42
  closing line because a lot of these books again are getting
• 23:44
  down to five or four and half. So my first bet, once again I am
• 23:47
  a Patriots fan. I was joking with with my dad.
• 23:51
  The other day and. He's like Pat's are.
• 23:53
  Going to kill him. You know, he doesn't really
• 23:54
  understand betting, but I was like, OK, well, I'm going to go
• 23:58
  Denver 5 1/2 and he's like, OK, well, Pat's win by three or
• 24:01
  four, everyone's happy and I'm like, OK, Dad, yeah, fingers
• 24:03
  crossed. So yeah, I want Patriots to
• 24:05
  advance. But I got to stay true to the
• 24:07
  model and. All these sharp angles.
• 24:09
  I'm going Denver plus 5 1/2 now. I told you I'm going to wait on
• 24:14
  RAM, Seattle. Guys, I got to go Rams here,
• 24:17
  Rams are only. Getting 16%.
• 24:19
  Of spread bets so they're. Even more.
• 24:21
  Contrarian than the Patriots, but Rams will be a divisional
• 24:24
  dog. Rams would be a prime time dog
• 24:28
  60. Percent or actually prime time
• 24:30
  is defined for me in the playoffs as 4:00 PM or later. 49
• 24:34
  and 33 ATS 60% since 2017 and also.
• 24:38
  This looks super sharp because. Let me ask you guys this, why
• 24:41
  isn't? Seattle up to -3 a lot of books
• 24:44
  for -3 down to 2 1/2. A lot of books for -2 1/2 still
• 24:48
  -2 1/2. The fact that you look at every
• 24:51
  book right now and these odds makers are getting hammered with
• 24:54
  Seattle money, why aren't we up to three, 3 1/2, four line
• 24:58
  staying right where they're at and it looks like the books
• 25:00
  don't want to give out. A A key number of three to the
• 25:03
  Rams. So I'm going to wait on this
• 25:05
  because I'm. Going to wait for Rams +3.
• 25:08
  But we have a divisional dog, prime time dog super.
• 25:11
  Contrarian sharp line freeze again, everyone playing Seattle,
• 25:14
  but, and I know Charbonnay just got hurt too, they're good
• 25:17
  backup running back, but everyone playing Seattle and yet
• 25:20
  the line really hasn't moved or it even maybe has moved down
• 25:22
  toward the Rams. So I'm going to hold out for the
• 25:24
  three again. You want to tease?
• 25:26
  Rams up 2 1/2 to 8 1/2. Don't mind that at all.
• 25:28
  Long teaser, but I'll hold out for the three and and I'm
• 25:33
  already take committed here on Denver plus 5 1/2 so.
• 25:36
  A little bit of AFC, NFC Championship.
• 25:38
  Talk for you on today's podcast. So that about does it.
• 25:42
  For episode 430. Seven of the all systems.
• 25:45
  Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 25:48
  This is the part of the pod where.
• 25:49
  We wrap things up. And always start first by saying
• 25:51
  thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
• 25:53
  you for tuning in. Thank you for grinding.
• 25:55
  In the arena with me every day through the ups and downs.
• 25:58
  The good days, the bad days, the hot streaks, the cold streaks.
• 26:01
  It means so much to me that win, lose or draw, we approach the
• 26:05
  market with clear eyes and make sharp, data-driven plays with
• 26:08
  our head and on our heart. If you do enjoy the pod and
• 26:11
  you'd like to help me grow and promote this podcast, please
• 26:13
  would you give? It a five star review on Spotify
• 26:16
  or iTunes or any other platform that you listen to it on if you
• 26:20
  want to. Leave a nice recommendation or a
• 26:22
  review, click the follow button, retweet the pod when I.
• 26:25
  Put it out on Twitter every afternoon or recommend the pod
• 26:28
  to a friend. That would also be very much
• 26:30
  appreciated. Next, if you enjoy this style of
• 26:33
  betting. Breakdown.
• 26:33
  Data-driven sharp contrarian betting focusing on splits, line
• 26:37
  moves, system matches, trying to take your contrarian.
• 26:40
  Approach if the style of. Betting has appealed to you.
• 26:42
  It's provided you a blueprint or maybe you have someone.
• 26:44
  Who could use some data? Driven tips then guess what I'd
• 26:48
  love for? You to go to Amazon.com type in
• 26:50
  the NFL Sharp betting playbook. Or the Everything Guide to
• 26:53
  Sports Betting. 2 books that I've written.
• 26:55
  Very proud of both. But if you want to grab one or
• 26:57
  both of them, bring them to the sports book.
• 26:59
  I'll sign them for you. Buy a beer or ginger ale and
• 27:02
  we'll sweat some games together. Next, have you downloaded Juice
• 27:05
  Reel and Rhythm yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 27:08
  apps. Rhythm for their AI backed.
• 27:10
  Models and predictions. For game bets and player props
• 27:12
  Juice reel so many great features.
• 27:15
  Big one there is you can get the all systems go best bet picks.
• 27:17
  Exclusively on Juice Reel, so you would have gotten UNC. -12
• 27:23
  1/2. Earlier.
• 27:23
  Now they're 13. And a half.
• 27:25
  I also look at it as a tip jar. Enjoy the pod.
• 27:28
  You go out to dinner, server takes care of you, give them a
• 27:30
  tip. I would love a tip in the form
• 27:33
  of a $5.00 bill. Just drop it right there in the
• 27:35
  Juice Reel app and get those ASG best bet picks.
• 27:38
  You're also going to get the sharp mush indicators, arbitrage
• 27:40
  plays. Shop for the best line futures
• 27:42
  all available when you download it.
• 27:43
  Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
• 27:46
  Juice Reel, give them a. Five star review.
• 27:48
  In the App Store next you have a live odds page.
• 27:51
  Well, if you don't, you need one.
• 27:52
  It's so important to be a day driven.
• 27:54
  Better you need to be able to track the market.
• 27:57
  What are all the games I can bet on?
• 27:58
  Today, what are the sports in the start times available to me
• 28:01
  I need live. Scoring when the game gets
• 28:03
  going. I need live in game wagering
• 28:05
  odds. If I want to make a live line
• 28:06
  bet. I got to be able to see the
• 28:08
  opening. Column that never changes in all
• 28:09
  the. Current odds to the right.
• 28:10
  Across the different books. Got to be able to identify
• 28:13
  Steam. When the when the lines get lit
• 28:15
  up in red I got to be able to shop for the best line, find the
• 28:18
  best number. Like finding Denver 5 1/2 when
• 28:21
  other books are at 4 1/2. You can do all of this with odds
• 28:24
  logic, so I'd love for you guys to download or just sign up.
• 28:27
  Go to oddslogic.com/josh 12. Three, make sure it's.
• 28:31
  Oddslogic.com/josh 123 because that special link will give you
• 28:35
  a 7. Day free trial and. 50% off your
• 28:38
  first month of service. Next to last novig, have you
• 28:42
  guys downloaded? The Novig app yet?
• 28:44
  Well. Novig is a sports betting
• 28:45
  exchange. It's not a sports book.
• 28:48
  So the whole point there. Is you're getting better juice
• 28:49
  prices so instead of laying -115. -120.
• 28:53
  You are laying minus one O 5 plus one O 2. -1 O 6 plus one O
• 28:57
  3 means you can win at the same rate you would at DraftKings or
• 29:00
  FanDuel, but make more. Money because you're risking
• 29:02
  less juice. So go download Novig and while
• 29:05
  you're at it. On the promo field.
• 29:07
  Put in Josh 123. It'll tack on an extra 25 bucks
• 29:10
  for you. So that about does it everybody
• 29:13
  on a big Wednesday, as always, whether.
• 29:15
  I see you at the. Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 29:18
  River in Rhode Island, The Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 29:20
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in in my Neck of the Woods in
• 29:23
  Connecticut. Or at the encore.
• 29:25
  In Boston, plain Ridge park casino MGM Springfield the Nash.
• 29:29
  Where I'm at on the board of Nashua, NH and Massachusetts are
• 29:32
  out in the desert where the true grinders get down or Billy
• 29:35
  Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice possible
• 29:38
  is found at the South Point, or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 29:40
  plays. Jumping in the stadium,
• 29:42
  swimming. Pool.
• 29:43
  When you catch a big ticket at Circa, you're going to walk up
• 29:45
  to me. You're.
• 29:46
  Going to show me Colorado mizzoo and wake and.
• 29:49
  We're going to RIP them up and just recycle them, throw it in
• 29:52
  the recycling. You got it, I hope.
• 29:54
  You guys do this? You have a recycling can.
• 29:56
  And a trash can right next to each other.
• 29:59
  If it's an obvious thing to recycle, just drop it in the
• 30:01
  recycling. You know, again, it doesn't.
• 30:03
  No sweat. Off my back, but man, I can't
• 30:05
  get over Colorado. One and two stinks, but an O
• 30:08
  and. Three, you just hate it and to
• 30:10
  get screwed by the refs like that is is super annoying.
• 30:13
  But anyway, guys, sometimes that.
• 30:15
  Happens coming off an O. And three night or a three and
• 30:17
  OA 2. And one or A1 and 2A hot.
• 30:19
  Streak a cold streak. A great night, a terrible night.
• 30:22
  We just got to stick with it. Next bet mentality.
• 30:24
  Even keeled not. Too high or too low and just
• 30:27
  play the system matches. Find the games that fit our
• 30:30
  model against the public with the house with the pros.
• 30:33
  Flat bet, avoid parlays and get that.
• 30:35
  CLV If we can do that, we're. Going to be successful sports
• 30:38
  bettors. So have a great Wednesday night,
• 30:39
  everybody. Be right back at it tomorrow for
• 30:42
  a big Thirsty Thursday edition. That'll be episode 438.
• 30:45
  Of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
• 30:49
  rhythm. Good luck.
• 30:50
  Everybody and have a great Wednesday night.