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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large speculates about upcoming GDP · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks be follow
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  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
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  Speaker 2: And Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor at largest with
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  Speaker 2: us I lam good ether. Okay, so what are you
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  Speaker 2: expecting for the GDP number?
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  Speaker 3: Well, wouldn't have thought it would be that flash, But
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  Speaker 3: looking through all the economists forecasts, they've just they've perked
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  Speaker 3: up a bit and they're all they've all upgraded their
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  Speaker 3: forecast for the quarter to zero point seven percent for
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  Speaker 3: the quarter, which is the same as we had in
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  Speaker 3: the last quarter of twenty twenty four and which is
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  Speaker 3: pretty good. So the Reserve Band had picked zero point
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  Speaker 3: four for the first quarter, and mostly economists were thinking
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  Speaker 3: the same thing. But we had some fairly good numbers
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  Speaker 3: business sort of business finance and business employment numbers on Monday,
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  Speaker 3: so they just they think it might be a bit stronger.
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  Speaker 3: But we do have to bear in mind that that
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  Speaker 3: first quarter, it seems like a long time ago now,
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  Speaker 3: goes right up to Donald Trump's Liberation Day, but not
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  Speaker 3: not you know, doesn't capture how everyone was feeling afterwards
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  Speaker 3: when confidence took a bit of a knock. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: it's possible it's actually slowed down a bit since then.
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  Speaker 2: Even why are they lifting the forecasts.
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  Speaker 3: Well, they're just looking at some of what they call
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  Speaker 3: the high frequency data. So manufacturing production, that sort of
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  Speaker 3: thing was slightly better than they expected. Obviously, everyone's everyone's
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  Speaker 3: talking about the rural sector going great guns, but that
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  Speaker 3: takes some time to come through. But yeah, just a
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  Speaker 3: little bit more upbeat around some of the manufacturing and
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  Speaker 3: some of that core business stuff. So that's positive. But
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  Speaker 3: you know, as we sort of sort of day, you know,
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  Speaker 3: retail spending still really flat to backwards, so the consumer end,
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  Speaker 3: you know, for those of us in the cities and
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  Speaker 3: in retail and hospitality, that's where the economy is really
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  Speaker 3: still doing it tough. It all kind of matters in
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  Speaker 3: a way, even though it's historic because we're talking about
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  Speaker 3: whether we get another rate cut on July ninth, and
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  Speaker 3: the sort of feeling as if it's landed at zero
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  Speaker 3: point seven percent of the quarner and it's better than
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  Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank expected, they might decide to pause and
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  Speaker 3: just wait and see and maybe cut again in August.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, perhaps so. And this retail number that we've got
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  Speaker 2: out today, which isn't altogether flash. Can we put most
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  Speaker 2: of it down to the petrol prices.
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  Speaker 3: A good chunk of it. But even when you strip
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  Speaker 3: out the fact that petrol prices were cheaper, you know,
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  Speaker 3: you still when you look at nominal terms, you've still
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  Speaker 3: got some inflation going on. So still some of those
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  Speaker 3: core retail sectors pretty much like it was zero point
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  Speaker 3: two down, which is basically flat, but still not great.
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  Speaker 3: Anyone you know in the retail sector or the hospitality
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  Speaker 3: sector looking for signs that we've turned a corner there,
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  Speaker 3: it's just hasn't happened yet. Seems to be taking forever,
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  Speaker 3: doesn't it.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. Hey, thank you very much, Liam, I really
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  Speaker 2: appreciate your time. It's Liam Dan, the Herald's Business Logic.
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