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The Market Thaw: Is Dallas-Fort Worth Real Estate Finally Unfreezing? · This Week in DFW Real Estate

0:00
Speaker 1: Eighty five to ninety percent of homeowners here in the
0:03
Speaker 1: Dallas Fort Worth area have a mortgage under six percent,
0:08
Speaker 1: eighty five to ninety many many have loans that are
0:11
Speaker 1: in the three to four percent range. And this is now,
0:16
Speaker 1: This is still causing that reluctancy to sell.
0:19
Speaker 2: I don't believe there's any trigger point that's going to
0:21
Speaker 2: cause some massive collapse of the housing market. The worst
0:25
Speaker 2: thing that can happen for an extended period of time
0:28
Speaker 2: is just buyers and sell buyers and sellers drift so
0:31
Speaker 2: far apart that the market essentially kind of freezes up.
0:34
Speaker 1: And we saw that.
0:35
Speaker 2: We saw nationwide we went from six point five million
0:38
Speaker 2: transaction sides down to four million point zero three transaction sides.
0:42
Speaker 2: That's a freezing up of the market. It's not a
0:44
Speaker 2: crash of the market. It's freezing up of the market.
0:47
Speaker 2: Every person that you know in this world is a
0:49
Speaker 2: referral source. You need to be positioning yourself as somebody
0:53
Speaker 2: who they can contribute to the growth of your business.
0:56
Speaker 2: Get use to asking for the business from the people
1:00
Speaker 2: that already know, like and trust you. There's no way
1:03
Speaker 2: you shouldn't be selling at least thirty homes a year.
1:06
Speaker 1: If you just know people and you ask them for
1:08
Speaker 1: the business. Turn it up.
1:15
Speaker 3: This week DF your Real Estate, No Weekly Podcast, Hooper
1:22
Speaker 3: Agents who actually give pay party Moved Listening, Heap Clothing
1:26
Speaker 3: Streets DM any Age.
1:34
Speaker 1: Lessen. All right, welcome back episode six. Hopefully you you
1:43
Speaker 1: got to listen and watch last week's show. It was
1:46
Speaker 1: a good one. Over Look. We were breaking down, obviously,
1:50
Speaker 1: the mergers and acquisitions that Compass is doing. I ran
1:54
Speaker 1: across a Compass agent today and just kind of chatting
1:56
Speaker 1: about that, and she's like, man, we're just owning everything.
1:59
Speaker 1: Like she's I did not expert on the side, she's
2:02
Speaker 1: on the Compass side. She's like, you know, she'd mentioned
2:04
Speaker 1: how she's like I was. She didn't even expect the
2:07
Speaker 1: Rogers Heally thing. So have you talked to any Rogers
2:10
Speaker 1: Heally agents. I'm not. I don't know a lot of
2:13
Speaker 1: those agents. Yeah they have not runs too. Yeah, No,
2:18
Speaker 1: that'd be good one. Maybe we get maybe we get
2:20
Speaker 1: Rogers on the show. But that was not on her
2:23
Speaker 1: BINGO card. And definitely, but she did she did say
2:26
Speaker 1: something interesting. She was with the previous kind of luxury
2:28
Speaker 1: brand brokerage that was local here and she's like, I
2:32
Speaker 1: feel more of a connection to uh, to Robert, the
2:36
Speaker 1: CEO of Compass, than I did with the CEO of
2:40
Speaker 1: this previous you know brokerage she was with. It was
2:43
Speaker 1: a pretty high luxury brokerage here. Interesting in the guy's local.
2:48
Speaker 1: She's like he was, you know, up until maybe acquiring
2:51
Speaker 1: all these other brokerages. He would personally any new agent
2:54
Speaker 1: that would join, he would call and reach out. He'd
2:56
Speaker 1: personally you know, respond to emails. She just like I
2:59
Speaker 1: felt more of a connection. I was like, I mean, look,
3:02
Speaker 1: I've yet to run across a lot of Compass agents
3:04
Speaker 1: who just you know, say really bad thing. Yeah.
3:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, And that's impressive because that's a heavy lift
3:09
Speaker 2: as big as they're getting.
3:10
Speaker 1: So good for him, solid leadership. No, So go back
3:13
Speaker 1: and listen to last week's show. Leave us a comment.
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Speaker 1: It just really helps us in the and the rankings.
3:24
Speaker 4: There.
3:25
Speaker 1: You had it right, didn't they get rid of Apple?
3:27
Speaker 2: Right?
3:27
Speaker 1: It's just called it's just called PAP Yes, But I
3:29
Speaker 1: think it's only through still Apple.
3:31
Speaker 2: No, because we had this conversation I think a year
3:33
Speaker 2: ago around whether or not that was trademarked by Apple
3:35
Speaker 2: now as they could even just they just bogart the
3:37
Speaker 2: whole word podcast.
3:38
Speaker 1: It belongs to them. That's why everyone says pod. I
3:40
Speaker 1: think maybe, yeah, this is not a prop by the way,
3:43
Speaker 1: we were not.
3:44
Speaker 4: We're on the verge of a meltdown.
3:47
Speaker 2: If anything, this is just a testament to how committed
3:50
Speaker 2: you got to be. You don't miss podcasts, even if
3:52
Speaker 2: you got to take other humans with you. You're talking
3:55
Speaker 2: about your baby. Yeah, you just kind of did not
3:58
Speaker 2: want to put her on screen again today, but she's
4:02
Speaker 2: having a little bit of a time. Yeah so episode six.
4:05
Speaker 1: Episode six, Yeah, so lest we show, we talked about,
4:08
Speaker 1: you know, how agents needed to focus on building their
4:12
Speaker 1: residual income and the more and more agents I've talked
4:16
Speaker 1: to even over the past week, about how our messaging
4:19
Speaker 1: is going to change around this, right, Like obviously obviously
4:22
Speaker 1: the way the industry is going, the way the market's going,
4:24
Speaker 1: the way the economy is going. I just filled up
4:26
Speaker 1: my I have a diesel truck and it was four
4:28
Speaker 1: dollars and seventy eight cents so that was not fun,
4:31
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's we got to start protecting our income.
4:34
Speaker 1: We got to start generating and figuring out how do
4:37
Speaker 1: we put recurring income into our world. So a good
4:41
Speaker 1: way to put this in a.
4:45
Speaker 2: I think sometimes when we talk about things, maybe they
4:48
Speaker 2: seem even a little fantastical to agents, like oh, I
4:50
Speaker 2: got to go do this whole other thing, and like
4:52
Speaker 2: that's great, but like how do I do it? And like,
4:54
Speaker 2: you know, Brian and Nick, we're talking, you know, theoretically
4:58
Speaker 2: this this, this could happen or whatever. All we're actually
5:01
Speaker 2: really talking about is something that a lot of major brokers,
5:05
Speaker 2: most brokerage houses are doing out there already. They're forming partnerships,
5:09
Speaker 2: they're getting the verticals, they're being very forward thinking around
5:13
Speaker 2: how do we get more of the transaction. Meaning, in
5:16
Speaker 2: every real estate transaction, a whole bunch of people provide
5:19
Speaker 2: value and a whole bunch of people get compensated for
5:22
Speaker 2: that value. And for the longest time, the standard model
5:25
Speaker 2: was we are the fiduciaries where the real estate experts,
5:28
Speaker 2: and that's awesome. And as the industry continues to evolve,
5:33
Speaker 2: the equation becomes how can I provide a wider array
5:36
Speaker 2: of value. Get a small piece of each one of those,
5:40
Speaker 2: and that could be just through aligning them with your partnerships,
5:42
Speaker 2: all kinds of things. But there's a whole pie of
5:45
Speaker 2: compensation up for grabs, and part of it can pay
5:48
Speaker 2: you in a residual if you're able to create that vertical.
5:51
Speaker 2: So we'll talk a lot more about the details on
5:54
Speaker 2: how we're exploring that in our own businesses. But I
5:57
Speaker 2: want you to understand this isn't necessarily a new idea
5:59
Speaker 2: that we've stumbled acros. This is already happening in our
6:01
Speaker 2: industry and we want to be a part of it.
6:03
Speaker 1: It's agents opportunities now to actually sit at the table
6:06
Speaker 1: where at the brokerage level, and and you know, Jesse,
6:11
Speaker 1: you're gonna have a heck of a time splicing this
6:13
Speaker 1: together so you can figure that out. You're gonna be
6:15
Speaker 1: a magician for this. Yeah. By the way, as you're
6:19
Speaker 1: watching this, just know that way to stop here in
6:21
Speaker 1: the middle. Brian, Brian's dad, Duty's at a kick in,
6:25
Speaker 1: So while Jesse's trying to figure out how to splice
6:27
Speaker 1: this together and make it all makes sense and blend
6:30
Speaker 1: really well. If you want to shoot a podcast just
6:32
Speaker 1: like this. Go to Tourstudios dot com. Get with Jesse.
6:34
Speaker 1: He's gonna look you mess up. You need to stop
6:37
Speaker 1: in the middle. He'll be able to blend it all together.
6:39
Speaker 1: He won't even know. I promise you that. And Homeward
6:42
Speaker 1: Property Management. I was talking with Duncan and Dana the
6:45
Speaker 1: other day, especially Duncan. He was telling me that the
6:48
Speaker 1: number one source of business that they're getting right now
6:50
Speaker 1: is agent referrals. So agents like yourself sending over their
6:54
Speaker 1: clients that are needing to get their homes least to
6:58
Speaker 1: have professional management. And the good news is you don't
7:01
Speaker 1: have to be concerned with thinking that Homeward is going
7:04
Speaker 1: to steal your clients because if that, if that you know,
7:07
Speaker 1: client of yours wants to sell their house, Homeward will
7:10
Speaker 1: send it back to you. So Homeward DFW dot com.
7:14
Speaker 1: And then you need repairs, right, you got buyers, they
7:17
Speaker 1: need to get repairs done. Maybe they want to remodel
7:19
Speaker 1: the house. Maybe you've got a listing that needs to
7:23
Speaker 1: have some love on it. Maybe it needs new carpet,
7:25
Speaker 1: new paint, maybe a little bit of upgrade so that
7:27
Speaker 1: it sells in today's market. Go to pro Care DFW.
7:29
Speaker 1: Pro Care Home Solutions does a great job with remodeling, contracting,
7:33
Speaker 1: handyman services, and they've got one hundred percent financing. So
7:37
Speaker 1: if your if your seller wants to, you know, pay
7:40
Speaker 1: it at closing, which they can, they can apply for
7:43
Speaker 1: financing and pay that off. They're at closing and everything
7:47
Speaker 1: will be good. So pro Care dfw dot com. But
7:50
Speaker 1: to go back to the to the residual part, Brian,
7:53
Speaker 1: is that you know, we want to talk about this
7:55
Speaker 1: more and more, and we want to bring this to
7:57
Speaker 1: the forefront because, for whatever reason, an agent's chase the
8:02
Speaker 1: transactional hamster wheel. Even though you're working the relationship piece,
8:06
Speaker 1: even though you're working with the people that know, like,
8:08
Speaker 1: trust and love you, it's still every single day you
8:11
Speaker 1: go back to one square one you were over there.
8:13
Speaker 1: If you know, if maybe your friend or your friend
8:16
Speaker 1: of a friend that was referred to you, they're out
8:18
Speaker 1: there looking at houses or they're talking about getting their
8:20
Speaker 1: home ready for sale, and then all of a sudden,
8:21
Speaker 1: something changes. Right, we've got this I you know, the
8:25
Speaker 1: Israel Iran conflict going on that could change some things
8:29
Speaker 1: the way that the economy works. That you know, maybe
8:31
Speaker 1: the outlook on jobs. Prices are going up, so maybe
8:35
Speaker 1: that changes your buyers out there. They're worried a little
8:38
Speaker 1: bit because now everything costs a little bit more. And
8:40
Speaker 1: so those houses that you've been showing every single weekend
8:43
Speaker 1: that you were hoping that they would find the right
8:44
Speaker 1: one to make an offer, they decided to hold off,
8:47
Speaker 1: and so that that closing and commission check that you
8:49
Speaker 1: were counting on just vanished. So what we have done
8:54
Speaker 1: and what we really want to continue to talk about,
8:57
Speaker 1: you're gonna hear it more and more and more on
8:58
Speaker 1: the show is the get Residual agent dot com. Get
9:02
Speaker 1: get Residual agent dot Com. And as you go there,
9:06
Speaker 1: you're going to see it evolve. Is that we're going
9:08
Speaker 1: to be showing agents how to add residual income to
9:11
Speaker 1: their life on stuff you're already doing. You're not having
9:14
Speaker 1: to sell potions, you're not having to sell any powders,
9:16
Speaker 1: you're not having to go learn something else. It is
9:19
Speaker 1: something that you're doing every single day in your life,
9:22
Speaker 1: working with buyers, working with sellers, and helping people with
9:25
Speaker 1: their electricity alarm, home automation services.
9:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's and you just hit the nail on the
9:30
Speaker 2: head right one, I'm going to challenge just to use
9:32
Speaker 2: AI to make it look like I'm holding a baby
9:34
Speaker 2: velociraptor in this episode, So if hopefully, if you're seeing this,
9:38
Speaker 2: I'm holding a tiny dinosaur. But you just you made
9:42
Speaker 2: a great point, right. Yes, what we're saying we run
9:46
Speaker 2: real estate businesses. We're not going to stop running real
9:49
Speaker 2: estate businesses anytime soon. But what is happening at the
9:52
Speaker 2: major brokeradge level, which is happening industry wide, is there
9:56
Speaker 2: are a lot of pieces of the transaction, and there
9:58
Speaker 2: are transactions that continue to happen after the close of
10:01
Speaker 2: the home. There are bills that are paid, there are
10:03
Speaker 2: vendors that are paid. There's all sorts of what we
10:05
Speaker 2: call trailing transactions that happen after someone moves into a home.
10:09
Speaker 2: And what is happening at the higher levels and what
10:11
Speaker 2: the agent can build for themselves is a vertically integrated
10:15
Speaker 2: business so that when you when you are closing homes,
10:19
Speaker 2: you already have the client acquisition pipeline right there in
10:22
Speaker 2: front of you. How do you become a partner of
10:24
Speaker 2: theirs and a partner in a network that helps you
10:27
Speaker 2: align them with the other transactions they're going to continue
10:30
Speaker 2: to pay for the entirety that they're in that home.
10:33
Speaker 2: How do you become the conduit of that and make
10:35
Speaker 2: it a vertical part of your business. That's what great
10:38
Speaker 2: businesses do. You know. We were really fortunate to have
10:41
Speaker 2: partners that are in a lot of different industries and
10:44
Speaker 2: a lot of different businesses. Property management is one of them.
10:47
Speaker 2: The sponsor this show and great friends of ours Homeward
10:49
Speaker 2: Property Management, go to homewardfw dot com. You know, they
10:52
Speaker 2: are a great vertically integrated business. They have several different
10:55
Speaker 2: revenue streams and one of them is also providing utilities
11:00
Speaker 2: services for their clients. But it's a win for their clients.
11:03
Speaker 2: It's a seamless process for their tenants, and then they
11:06
Speaker 2: get to own a little bit more of the transaction
11:08
Speaker 2: and a little bit more of the pie. You're going
11:10
Speaker 2: to see that across the board. You see this in
11:12
Speaker 2: other industries, the banking industry. How many products do different
11:16
Speaker 2: banks have now they have tons of different vertical integrations
11:19
Speaker 2: inside of one facility. So this is happening in the
11:23
Speaker 2: real estate industry anyway. And we really don't want the
11:26
Speaker 2: agents to have a smaller piece of the pie. We
11:28
Speaker 2: want agents to have more of the pie. So we're
11:30
Speaker 2: going to continue to educate people on how they can
11:32
Speaker 2: build these things in their business.
11:33
Speaker 1: You know what. And as we move on, you know what,
11:37
Speaker 1: there was a surprising stat that I don't know if
11:40
Speaker 1: you're starting to see, you know, that we lost during
11:44
Speaker 1: the COVID market, Right there was this trend that we
11:49
Speaker 1: had lost, which was the first time home buyer market. Yeah,
11:51
Speaker 1: it kind of vanished for a while, at least here
11:53
Speaker 1: in North Texas, but it vanished almost everywhere if you
11:56
Speaker 1: look at at you know, the nationwide trends. It was
12:00
Speaker 1: during the COVID market and through twenty twenty three and
12:04
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, the high rate environment started to cause
12:08
Speaker 1: really started to cause that downward pressure on first time
12:12
Speaker 1: home buyers. And you know, if you go back and
12:15
Speaker 1: listen to I think it was episode three where we
12:17
Speaker 1: talked about the student loan debt and for every what
12:20
Speaker 1: was every thousand dollars, I think it was, it impacted
12:22
Speaker 1: the negatively on home ownership in that world by like,
12:26
Speaker 1: you know, one or two percent. It was a pretty
12:29
Speaker 1: harrowing statistic. Yeah, and so what we're seeing right now
12:32
Speaker 1: that first time home buyers are now starting to dip
12:34
Speaker 1: their toe back and re enter the housing market here
12:37
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six after sitting out all those years.
12:41
Speaker 1: And you know, nationally right now, first time home buyers
12:43
Speaker 1: accounted for about thirty four percent of home all home
12:47
Speaker 1: purchases in February, which is up roughly thirty one percent
12:51
Speaker 1: from the month prior, so it was ten percent increase.
12:53
Speaker 1: That's great. Yeah, and this is this is one of
12:57
Speaker 1: the strongest shares that we've seen in months, which that
13:00
Speaker 1: to me, if you have first time home buyers re
13:03
Speaker 1: entering the market, and that to me is if I
13:07
Speaker 1: kind of like, look at this, that's kind of this
13:11
Speaker 1: most skittish buyer of them all.
13:14
Speaker 2: Well, it's the easiest for the transaction, I think, to
13:16
Speaker 2: fall apart and to kind of knock them out of
13:18
Speaker 2: the deal.
13:18
Speaker 1: Right, I think it's the easy you have.
13:21
Speaker 2: It's the most fragile buying demographic. Right. I think that's
13:26
Speaker 2: a good way to put it, is that whether you
13:28
Speaker 2: call it skittish or whatever. Right, Like, the transition from
13:32
Speaker 2: being a renter to buying a home for the first time,
13:34
Speaker 2: it's easier mentally to say I don't want to do this,
13:37
Speaker 2: I'm going to go back to renting, whereas somebody who's
13:39
Speaker 2: bought on a home three or four times in their lives,
13:42
Speaker 2: they're going to be able to weather a more complicated
13:45
Speaker 2: transaction process, maybe have a more stressful transaction process. There
13:48
Speaker 2: they're probably a little bit better off financially because they
13:50
Speaker 2: have equity and they have assets, so there's more things
13:53
Speaker 2: that are going to keep them in the transaction than
13:55
Speaker 2: a first time home buyer.
13:57
Speaker 1: Well that and yes, and what what did we hear
14:01
Speaker 1: the last couple of years that it the affordability was
14:04
Speaker 1: a problem, right, so you see you were seeing a
14:07
Speaker 1: lot of the comparisons like back in the fifties home
14:10
Speaker 1: you know, salaries and home prices were here, and then
14:13
Speaker 1: they're comparing it to home prices, you know, in today's terms,
14:16
Speaker 1: in today's prices and where salaries are. And NAR just
14:21
Speaker 1: came out and said that housing affordability, the housing affordability
14:24
Speaker 1: Index is improving. It's it's the highest that it's been
14:29
Speaker 1: since twenty twenty two. And according to the National Association Realtors,
14:35
Speaker 1: the Housing Affordability Index rose to about one hundred and
14:40
Speaker 1: sixteen point five in January twenty twenty six, which was
14:43
Speaker 1: the highest level it's been since March of twenty twenty two.
14:48
Speaker 1: And what that just means is that we've now seen
14:51
Speaker 1: we've now seen over the past seven consecutive months that
14:55
Speaker 1: housing affordability has has just gotten better.
14:58
Speaker 2: There's there's a key difference here though, and this is
15:00
Speaker 2: really important. The difference here though, is that in twenty
15:03
Speaker 2: twenty two, we had, you know, what I would like
15:06
Speaker 2: to call a little bit of artificial affordability. When you
15:08
Speaker 2: drop rates low enough and people have a lot of
15:11
Speaker 2: cash in the bank, you can say affordability is there.
15:15
Speaker 2: What we have now is a little bit more sustainability
15:17
Speaker 2: and stability. Rates are between six point one six point
15:20
Speaker 2: five or so, they're in the mid sixes, and we're
15:23
Speaker 2: starting to see affordability become the greatest suspend since twenty
15:26
Speaker 2: twenty two. That means the other levers are being pulled,
15:29
Speaker 2: and the other levers are wages and asset prices. I
15:34
Speaker 2: don't follow wages that closely, so I don't know what
15:36
Speaker 2: wages have done Jesse since twenty twenty two, but I
15:38
Speaker 2: could tell you asset prices here in North Texas have
15:41
Speaker 2: come down quite a bit, which is a good thing.
15:43
Speaker 4: I know.
15:43
Speaker 1: We keep it talking.
15:44
Speaker 2: We always talk about how houses you know, they got
15:46
Speaker 2: to go up forever. We are seeing the best housing
15:49
Speaker 2: affordability environment since twenty twenty two. It's because our prices
15:53
Speaker 2: have come back down and things are becoming affordable again
15:55
Speaker 2: despite higher rates.
15:57
Speaker 1: That's so good for home buyers us as it just
16:00
Speaker 1: to give clarification, right, what what does the afforded Affordability
16:04
Speaker 1: Index mean? Right? So we talk about that, and housing
16:08
Speaker 1: affordability Index measures whether a typical family earns enough income
16:14
Speaker 1: to qualify for mortgage on a typical home. And one
16:18
Speaker 1: hundred one hundred, one hundred equals is exactly exactly enough
16:22
Speaker 1: income to qualify. Anything above one hundred is equals the
16:26
Speaker 1: median family earns more than they need. So right now,
16:29
Speaker 1: back in January is one sixteen point five, which means
16:32
Speaker 1: that that the median house on is earning about sixteen
16:36
Speaker 1: percent more income then required to qualify for the median
16:40
Speaker 1: priced home. Is that is that nationwide? That's nation yes, nationwide? Right,
16:44
Speaker 1: so you know, because NAR is not going to break
16:46
Speaker 1: that down into nars just taking lift. Yes, And so
16:50
Speaker 1: they're they're they're saying, we look, the three main factors
16:53
Speaker 1: that are that are driving this is mortgage rates have
16:56
Speaker 1: fallen from their twenty twenty three peaks, right, so are
17:00
Speaker 1: now roughly in the lower six mid to lower six
17:03
Speaker 1: percent range. We possibly could see that, you know, there
17:06
Speaker 1: could be just with everything going on, and we've now
17:09
Speaker 1: seen over what the last two to three months, we've
17:12
Speaker 1: seen that. Well, we're in March right now, so there
17:15
Speaker 1: was December, January. I don't know if we have February's
17:18
Speaker 1: employment numbers yet, not yet. So December and January's employment
17:21
Speaker 1: numbers were revised to negative, so we could start do
17:25
Speaker 1: we start to see even a stronger pressure to decrease mortgages,
17:32
Speaker 1: to lower that because right now it's it's you know,
17:35
Speaker 1: we're we're in that low six percent range. It's down
17:37
Speaker 1: from nearly eight percent in twenty twenty three. It's huge.
17:40
Speaker 2: I mean that is when you look on it on
17:42
Speaker 2: a like a net percentage basis, mortgage rates of drop
17:45
Speaker 2: like twenty five percent since since the peak, which is awesome.
17:49
Speaker 2: There's an interesting thing that I just looked in these
17:51
Speaker 2: numbers though, this is from the National Association Realtors. If
17:53
Speaker 2: you get rid of the West Coast, which I think
17:56
Speaker 2: is chronically unaffordable, we all agree affordability is actually even
18:00
Speaker 2: and better. The index would be even better than the
18:02
Speaker 2: one seventeen point six or whatever it was in February.
18:06
Speaker 2: The affordability index this month, if you just take West
18:09
Speaker 2: Coast states into accounts, only eighty four point five percent,
18:12
Speaker 2: which just means that all we're saying is California is
18:14
Speaker 2: still an unaffordable place to buy a house.
18:16
Speaker 1: That's not really news to anybody.
18:17
Speaker 2: So with this show being a Dallas for Work show,
18:20
Speaker 2: affordability is even higher than one seventeen here.
18:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's one hundred and twenty one point seven. Yeah,
18:25
Speaker 1: that's great. So again, as rates, as rates continue to fall,
18:30
Speaker 1: we see a you know, home price growth has drastically
18:34
Speaker 1: slowed down. In fact, some areas we've seen a little
18:37
Speaker 1: bit of a you know price drop.
18:39
Speaker 4: Yep.
18:39
Speaker 1: And you know, right now, if you look at it
18:42
Speaker 1: on a national level, prices nationally are only up about
18:45
Speaker 1: zero point three percent year over year.
18:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're just seeing the market thaw out. We talked
18:50
Speaker 2: about this on our other podcast years ago. I mean,
18:52
Speaker 2: I want to say this was like back in twenty
18:54
Speaker 2: twenty one. Man, It's crazy how time applies. And we
18:57
Speaker 2: had a long discussion around what the future looks like
19:00
Speaker 2: and nobody's ever going to get it right. But I
19:03
Speaker 2: believe the people on that show were very adamant that
19:06
Speaker 2: it would look something like this in the sense of
19:09
Speaker 2: I don't believe there's any trigger point that's going to
19:12
Speaker 2: cause some massive collapse of the housing market. The worst
19:15
Speaker 2: thing that could happen for an extended period of time
19:19
Speaker 2: is just buyers and buyers and sellers drift so far
19:22
Speaker 2: apart that the market essentially kind of freezes up.
19:24
Speaker 1: And we saw that.
19:25
Speaker 2: We saw nationwide we went from six point five million
19:28
Speaker 2: transaction sides down to four million point zero three transaction sides.
19:32
Speaker 2: That's a freezing up of the market. It's not a
19:34
Speaker 2: crash of the market. It's a freezing up of the market.
19:37
Speaker 2: And now we're starting to see the market thaw out,
19:40
Speaker 2: which is great. We talked about this on the show
19:42
Speaker 2: a few weeks ago, around short sales and all that
19:44
Speaker 2: type of stuff. Those are going to happen. Unfortunately, as
19:46
Speaker 2: the market starts to thaw out, there are going to
19:49
Speaker 2: be people who bought a few years ago that for
19:50
Speaker 2: whatever reason, have not lived in the home as long
19:53
Speaker 2: as they thought they would. Now they're attempting to sell,
19:56
Speaker 2: and unfortunately the home is not worth quite what they
19:58
Speaker 2: what they.
19:58
Speaker 1: Bought it for.
20:00
Speaker 2: That's an unfortunate aspect of any market, and that that
20:03
Speaker 2: is truly that is that is unfortunate for the people
20:05
Speaker 2: that are in that situation. But it is also a
20:07
Speaker 2: good sign that asset prices are coming back closer to
20:11
Speaker 2: alignment with wages and the market is starting the thaw out.
20:15
Speaker 2: So I think that we're correct in our forecast that
20:16
Speaker 2: there was no big event horizon happening where all of
20:20
Speaker 2: a sudden the market collapsed or all of a sudden
20:22
Speaker 2: the markets snap back and want on this big bull run.
20:25
Speaker 2: You just start to slowly see these things come back
20:27
Speaker 2: into alignment over time. And now we're starting to see that,
20:31
Speaker 2: and it's a great sign.
20:32
Speaker 1: Well wage growth if we if we look at it
20:34
Speaker 1: and look when we talk about wage growth, there's always
20:37
Speaker 1: the people that haven't experienced the wage there right wage
20:40
Speaker 1: And there's a lot of people that like it's not
20:41
Speaker 1: real in my world exactly, like maybe you need to
20:43
Speaker 1: find a new job or you know, ask for a raise.
20:46
Speaker 1: But if we look at just all right, we said
20:48
Speaker 1: it right. Housing affordabilities is the greatest it's been since
20:51
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, and as we look at it, say
20:54
Speaker 1: all right, what has been the average US wage growth
20:57
Speaker 1: since that time period? And back in twenty two twenty three,
21:00
Speaker 1: the median household income was eighty two thy five hundred. Okay,
21:04
Speaker 1: right now, we take so far the first you know,
21:08
Speaker 1: the Q one of twenty twenty six, the median household
21:10
Speaker 1: income is ninety two thy eight hundred, which is representing
21:14
Speaker 1: a roughly twelve to thirteen percent you know, growth and
21:16
Speaker 1: wages over the past three years years Like.
21:18
Speaker 2: That's that's really good. If you if you were to
21:22
Speaker 2: assume you know, four percent asset growth over the same
21:27
Speaker 2: time period, which is historically what houses have normally gone
21:31
Speaker 2: up around four percent per year, then we're right in line.
21:33
Speaker 2: We're right in line with where we should be you
21:35
Speaker 2: were to draw a chart. I think we did this
21:36
Speaker 2: on one of our first episodes. This is why you
21:38
Speaker 2: would see prices coming right back in the line with
21:40
Speaker 2: where they would have been if the pandemic never happened.
21:43
Speaker 2: That's an interesting stat that wages are pretty much where
21:46
Speaker 2: they would have been if they had just continued on
21:47
Speaker 2: it four percent growth.
21:49
Speaker 1: And their wage growth is now outpacing home price appreciation.
21:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it will It makes for a little while,
21:57
Speaker 2: it will, and it makes perfect sense as to why,
22:00
Speaker 2: because asset prices drifted up so fast that now they
22:04
Speaker 2: have to come back down and wages have to grow
22:06
Speaker 2: a little bit. There's a there's an inversion of those
22:08
Speaker 2: curves there for a little bit. It's like a yield
22:10
Speaker 2: curve inversion. Right, So they'll have wage growth will have
22:14
Speaker 2: to outpace asset price growth for a little while because
22:17
Speaker 2: they drifted so far apart. Right, If home prices in
22:20
Speaker 2: North Texas increased by twenty five percent in a few
22:22
Speaker 2: years and wages only increased by four percent, and then
22:27
Speaker 2: asset prices continue to only increase by four percent and
22:30
Speaker 2: wages only increase before, we'd still be twenty five percent apart.
22:33
Speaker 2: So they got to come back down, which means for
22:35
Speaker 2: a short period of time, wages are going to go
22:37
Speaker 2: much faster thanalysis at home prices will.
22:39
Speaker 1: So, and if we look at just the overall you know,
22:42
Speaker 1: DFW market, the national market, and just the industry as
22:45
Speaker 1: a whole, if we were to call on and do
22:48
Speaker 1: a poll with agents right now, you know, I would
22:52
Speaker 1: guess other than they're probably feeling that springtime busyness starting
22:56
Speaker 1: to happen, right, there there, we quickly forget how the
22:59
Speaker 1: pre market or the last couple of months been, because
23:02
Speaker 1: now all of a sudden, we're busy again. But if
23:04
Speaker 1: you ask them about income, you know, their income hasn't
23:06
Speaker 1: their their commissioned income isn't up. But the agent I
23:09
Speaker 1: was talking to today, she's like, you know, she's been
23:11
Speaker 1: in the business since two thousand and seven, and she's like,
23:14
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five was the worst year I ever had.
23:16
Speaker 1: And she's like, it wasn't because I wasn't trying. It
23:18
Speaker 1: wasn't working. And so if we're looking at like, you know,
23:22
Speaker 1: as again why we pushed the residual income piece, and
23:26
Speaker 1: portion of this is that we all experience burnout and
23:29
Speaker 1: we all experience like, all right, the market feels like
23:32
Speaker 1: it's working against us, right, and you know, and we
23:36
Speaker 1: we don't look at stats enough to understand where we
23:39
Speaker 1: are in these phases and journeys. I think if you
23:41
Speaker 1: go back to episode two or maybe three, we talked
23:44
Speaker 1: about the where we are in the cycle, and you know,
23:48
Speaker 1: first time home buyers will will de reiterate. First time
23:50
Speaker 1: home buars made up thirty four percent of home purchases
23:53
Speaker 1: so far in early twenty twenty six. This is one
23:57
Speaker 1: of the highest shares in recent way, more than I
23:59
Speaker 1: thought it would be. Just now totally. Here's the great news,
24:01
Speaker 1: a healthy housing market. We need first time home buyers,
24:04
Speaker 1: right because they're the ones that continue the trend, and
24:06
Speaker 1: you know, it's fresh blood coming in and keeps the
24:08
Speaker 1: cycle going. Healthy housing markets usually has about forty percent
24:12
Speaker 1: first time home buyers. So when you think about this,
24:15
Speaker 1: we are moving back towards that normal level that we've been,
24:19
Speaker 1: just like Brian said in episode one or two, where
24:22
Speaker 1: you look at the trend line and prices have now
24:25
Speaker 1: fallen back into our normal trend line growth or almost
24:28
Speaker 1: to that. We're not that far off of clearing out
24:32
Speaker 1: that glut of you know that that super fast appreciation market,
24:36
Speaker 1: low inventory, obviously existing home sales or we're now starting
24:41
Speaker 1: to see existing home sales rebound because we saw that
24:45
Speaker 1: in February they rose about one point seven percent as
24:48
Speaker 1: mortgage rates declined and affordability improved, and those buyers who
24:52
Speaker 1: have paused during the high rate times are now starting
24:55
Speaker 1: to say, all right, it's time.
24:57
Speaker 2: So we're seeing that, which I think is inevitable when
24:59
Speaker 2: when prices come back down into an affordable range. At
25:01
Speaker 2: the same time, first time home buyers are our most
25:06
Speaker 2: are probably one of the most likely avatars for new construction,
25:11
Speaker 2: and builders are heavily incentivizing first time home buyers right now.
25:16
Speaker 2: They're doing there, they're buying down rates it and I
25:20
Speaker 2: think the stat here was that the first time home
25:22
Speaker 2: buyers scroll down, except this was an interesting statistic here
25:26
Speaker 2: that first time home buyers most first time home buyer
25:30
Speaker 2: activities happening between two seventy five and four to twenty five,
25:33
Speaker 2: which is really interesting because if you just think back
25:37
Speaker 2: off the top of your nagget into twenty twenty two,
25:39
Speaker 2: I don't know what you're buying around here for two
25:41
Speaker 2: seventy five, right, so you're going to have to go
25:44
Speaker 2: out a little bit further geographically. But new construction of
25:47
Speaker 2: homes in price points that are quite a bit lower
25:52
Speaker 2: than where resale values were a few years ago, that's
25:55
Speaker 2: the bread and butter it looks like for first time
25:57
Speaker 2: home buyers right now, and that could be something really
26:00
Speaker 2: really actionable to consider. You know, if you're especially if
26:02
Speaker 2: you're a younger agent or a newer agent, first time
26:05
Speaker 2: home buyers buy a new construction right now, thirty four
26:08
Speaker 2: percent of the market is first time home buyers, and
26:11
Speaker 2: new construction is a great niche and if you get
26:13
Speaker 2: into with the builders, you can really really carve out
26:16
Speaker 2: an awesome pathway there. North Fort Worth, Princeton, Ana, Melissa Forney,
26:22
Speaker 2: all over North Denton County. Those are the places where
26:25
Speaker 2: we're first time home buyers are buying a lot of
26:27
Speaker 2: new construction right now. That's fueling a lot of that
26:30
Speaker 2: thirty four percent. That's something to keep an eye on
26:33
Speaker 2: because the more first time home buyers get into the market,
26:36
Speaker 2: the better it is for the market long term, because
26:38
Speaker 2: the more homeowners we have, you know, long term, eventually
26:40
Speaker 2: more transaction size we have at stability.
26:43
Speaker 1: Well, look, because stuff happens, right they you know, they
26:46
Speaker 1: buy a house, they either get married, have a kid,
26:50
Speaker 1: get a divorce, right, blend the family. So there's life
26:54
Speaker 1: cycle events that happen that will cause them to sell.
26:57
Speaker 1: They lose their job, they get a new job, and
26:59
Speaker 1: it's an different area. And so we have to have
27:03
Speaker 1: that healthy first time home buyer market in order to
27:06
Speaker 1: cause the move up market, in order to cause you know,
27:09
Speaker 1: the relocation market. Right, So we we've got to have that.
27:13
Speaker 1: You know, something I'm looking at here. I remember when
27:15
Speaker 1: I got when I first started selling, you know, it
27:17
Speaker 1: was full time, you know, I was doing it as
27:19
Speaker 1: an assistant, but started selling full time in two thousand
27:21
Speaker 1: and six and two thousand and seven. I was ecstatic
27:25
Speaker 1: to get a buyer to buy a two hundred fifty
27:28
Speaker 1: thousand dollar home. I thought they were super wealthy. At
27:31
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand, My first time home buyers were one
27:34
Speaker 1: fifty to one sixty, and I was selling a ton
27:36
Speaker 1: of one twenty and one twenty five. Yeah, you know.
27:39
Speaker 1: And then I'd go to these conferences, you know, and
27:41
Speaker 1: they're all on the West Coast, and I was hearing
27:43
Speaker 1: the four or five, six, seven hundred thousand dollars ones,
27:46
Speaker 1: and I'm like, man, should we move right? You're like,
27:48
Speaker 1: It'll never be like that around here, That's right. Yeah,
27:50
Speaker 1: it'd be like we just have too much land, there's
27:52
Speaker 1: not gonna be enough, there's not enough people coming in
27:54
Speaker 1: here in the Texas, and now we've got too much traffic.
27:58
Speaker 1: But you know, again, we look at you know, the
27:59
Speaker 1: other the other health. You know, the good sign of
28:02
Speaker 1: of a of a healthy housing market, and where we're
28:05
Speaker 1: getting to is that our inventory levels are increasing, right,
28:09
Speaker 1: so we're we're getting back to that that you know
28:11
Speaker 1: over five months of inventory six months is a balance market,
28:16
Speaker 1: and we need that. We needed that inventory levels to
28:19
Speaker 1: go up. We need we need choices, we needed to have.
28:24
Speaker 1: It's it checks and balances on pricing. Yep, yeah, right,
28:27
Speaker 1: the lower inventory, pricing gets out of control, right, the
28:30
Speaker 1: the we get out of whack and have too much inventory,
28:32
Speaker 1: then pricing, you know, prices drop way too drastically low,
28:35
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, we're ping ponging back
28:37
Speaker 1: and forth. It's not healthy, not at all.
28:38
Speaker 2: And what did it say before we're back to five
28:41
Speaker 2: points something months, where we're almost back to six months
28:44
Speaker 2: worth of inventory, which you know they always say six
28:47
Speaker 2: months is a healthy market. There's there's a lot of
28:49
Speaker 2: indicators that play into that, but it is interesting to
28:52
Speaker 2: see we have what appears to be now both transaction
28:58
Speaker 2: volume and inventory still picking up. That's a sign of
29:01
Speaker 2: a dethawing market when you start to see more transactions happening,
29:06
Speaker 2: also more sellers willing to put their homes on the market.
29:08
Speaker 2: That means existing home sales are picking up because a
29:11
Speaker 2: lot of people are putting their homes on the market
29:13
Speaker 2: in order to buy, so then you'll parallel At the
29:17
Speaker 2: same time, you can see inventory rise and transaction size rise.
29:21
Speaker 2: So this all happens when you have new construction is
29:24
Speaker 2: picking up because they're heavily incentivizing buyers, and you have
29:28
Speaker 2: existing home sales picking up and inventory picking up. That
29:31
Speaker 2: means that people are putting their homes on the market,
29:33
Speaker 2: people that don't own homes are buying new construction, and
29:36
Speaker 2: then people that just put their homes in the market
29:38
Speaker 2: are also purchasing homes. So you see all three of
29:40
Speaker 2: those things happening all at once. It won't stay that
29:43
Speaker 2: way forever, but this is a really good indication that
29:46
Speaker 2: the market is thawing out. And I think a lot
29:48
Speaker 2: of it, aside from asset prices coming down, which is great,
29:52
Speaker 2: a lot of it is just the natural fatigue that
29:54
Speaker 2: sets in when a market is kind of frozen for
29:56
Speaker 2: a long time.
29:57
Speaker 1: Life moves on.
29:58
Speaker 2: People get tired of of pushing out the events that
30:02
Speaker 2: they want to realize in their life because things are
30:05
Speaker 2: too expensive or this or that. Eventually you have buyer
30:08
Speaker 2: fatigue and seller fatigue, and that means that eventually they
30:11
Speaker 2: will make moves.
30:14
Speaker 1: Less.
30:15
Speaker 2: I wouldn't say regardless of market variables, but they'll be
30:17
Speaker 2: less sensitive to market variables and eventually they'll start to
30:20
Speaker 2: make moves.
30:20
Speaker 1: And we're starting to see that happen. Well, that here's
30:23
Speaker 1: the good news. Let's let's keep let's keep looking at numbers,
30:26
Speaker 1: because you know that you know, people lie. Numbers don't right,
30:30
Speaker 1: and we sometimes just we like to trick ourselves about
30:34
Speaker 1: what's going on or what we think is going to happen.
30:36
Speaker 1: But you know, if we look at some really powerful
30:39
Speaker 1: stats here that between twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four,
30:44
Speaker 1: the Dallas Fort Worth area added about one hundred and
30:47
Speaker 1: seventy almost one hundred and seventy eight thousand people. Wow. Right,
30:50
Speaker 1: it's almost five hundred people moved to the Dallas Fort
30:53
Speaker 1: Worth area every day. And you know when we look
30:56
Speaker 1: at that, what does that mean? They've got to go somewhere, right,
31:00
Speaker 1: And you know, we don't have an we haven't had
31:03
Speaker 1: an over supply of housing. We've seen the we've seen
31:07
Speaker 1: the rental demand decrease because prices, you know, you know,
31:11
Speaker 1: rental prices had to quickly adjust and drastically go up
31:14
Speaker 1: to be offset for property taxes and property insurance and
31:18
Speaker 1: everything else going on and the renter is push back,
31:21
Speaker 1: and so you see, you saw a massive slow down
31:24
Speaker 1: when it came to the rental side. You know, we're
31:27
Speaker 1: we're sitting at as a DFW, you know, as a
31:30
Speaker 1: metroplex as a whole, we have now over eight million
31:32
Speaker 1: people as a population is roughly about eight point three.
31:36
Speaker 1: So we're we're now one of the largest metros in America.
31:42
Speaker 1: So what does that continue to mean that there we're
31:45
Speaker 1: expected to have, you know, in the next decade, over
31:47
Speaker 1: ten million people in the Dallas Fort Worth area. So
31:49
Speaker 1: so when we look at it as a real estate
31:52
Speaker 1: professional in our industry where we're concerned about technology, we're
31:56
Speaker 1: concerned about AI, is there a silver lining that people
32:00
Speaker 1: are still moving here, that are coming through. And you know,
32:06
Speaker 1: as long as we're doing a great job of branding
32:08
Speaker 1: ourselves and marketing ourselves, utilizing you know, utilizing social media
32:13
Speaker 1: and and you know, doing a great job of putting
32:16
Speaker 1: ourselves out there as an agent, should because Ryan Surian says,
32:21
Speaker 1: you should be your own media company. You should be
32:23
Speaker 1: the biggest cheerleader an advocate for yourself. That there should
32:28
Speaker 1: be plenty of business for you.
32:30
Speaker 2: You know. And one thing that that I want to
32:32
Speaker 2: encourage people to do as they're taking that approach creating content,
32:35
Speaker 2: social media, all that type of stuff. What's the first
32:39
Speaker 2: thing people ask you a lot of times whenever they
32:41
Speaker 2: find out you're in real estate, like, what's the market like?
32:43
Speaker 2: All that type of stuff. You know, we do a
32:45
Speaker 2: lot of research on this show, but we we really
32:48
Speaker 2: optimize it by by having a few sources that we
32:51
Speaker 2: really depend on. We pull a lot from from AI
32:54
Speaker 2: and we have a lot of great prompts that help
32:55
Speaker 2: us pull in particular pieces of analysis that we that
32:58
Speaker 2: we find interesting and valuable. You should be creating a
33:01
Speaker 2: lot of content. You don't need to go as deep
33:03
Speaker 2: as we are on a lot of this stuff. But
33:04
Speaker 2: people care about what's going on in the market. They
33:07
Speaker 2: ask about it all the time. You can be that
33:09
Speaker 2: economic advisor of choice just in the content that you create.
33:13
Speaker 3: Right.
33:13
Speaker 2: So an interesting stat here is that Price Waterhouse Cooper,
33:18
Speaker 2: massive massive accounting firm. They have ranked Dallas for Worth
33:21
Speaker 2: as the number one emerging market in the United States,
33:24
Speaker 2: and that's that's driven by population growth, job growth, corporate relocations,
33:29
Speaker 2: and then their analysis of long term housing demand. So I,
33:32
Speaker 2: you know, there's there for context. I don't put a
33:34
Speaker 2: lot of sake in long term housing demand because there's
33:36
Speaker 2: a lot of variables. But those first three the rate
33:38
Speaker 2: of population growth, the rate of job growth, and then
33:41
Speaker 2: corporate relocations. That's an important thing to know and maybe
33:44
Speaker 2: to dive deeper on. There's also surveys that they've done
33:48
Speaker 2: around renters who want to buy. Thirty thirty percent of
33:52
Speaker 2: renters under thirty five say they plan to buy in
33:56
Speaker 2: the next year. All of this stuff, I mean, we're
33:59
Speaker 2: literally creating content about it right now in the form
34:01
Speaker 2: of a podcast. You can be creating your own video series,
34:04
Speaker 2: your market updates, your educational stuff and whether that becomes YouTube, TikTok, Instagram,
34:09
Speaker 2: your newsletter for your database, whatever. People are really interested
34:13
Speaker 2: in this stuff you want to You may not want
34:15
Speaker 2: to get so high level that it becomes boring, But
34:18
Speaker 2: if you're looking for what to say, there's some really
34:22
Speaker 2: great sources out there that you can pull that give
34:26
Speaker 2: you a lot of knowledge really quickly that you can
34:29
Speaker 2: turn into content and position yourself as an expert. And
34:32
Speaker 2: I guarantee you that will have a positive effect on
34:34
Speaker 2: the bottom line in your business. So when you're thinking
34:37
Speaker 2: about stuff to create content wise, start start with the
34:40
Speaker 2: educational stuff.
34:41
Speaker 1: What do you think of this, Brian as an agent?
34:44
Speaker 1: You know, you're you know, you're hearing the first time
34:47
Speaker 1: home buyer market year. You're trying to work with more sellers.
34:50
Speaker 1: You know, you're you're just trying to maybe maybe work
34:53
Speaker 1: with that move up buyer. And you hear this that
34:57
Speaker 1: eighty five to ninety percent of homeowners here in the
35:01
Speaker 1: Dallas Fort Worth area have a mortgage under six percent.
35:08
Speaker 1: Eighty five to ninety many, yeah, many have loans that
35:11
Speaker 1: are in the three to four percent range. And this
35:16
Speaker 1: is now, this is still causing that reluctancy to sell, right,
35:20
Speaker 1: you know, we still have that fewer homes we're willing
35:22
Speaker 1: to hit the market. You know, so housing supply could
35:26
Speaker 1: still over the next over the next year, year and
35:29
Speaker 1: a half, we could still be constrained on housing supply
35:32
Speaker 1: because one one of the things to kind of think
35:34
Speaker 1: about is if rates were to get into the mid
35:37
Speaker 1: fives to the lower fives and we start to see
35:41
Speaker 1: that increase, because every every one percent drop increases affordability
35:47
Speaker 1: by about ten to twelve percent. If we see that
35:51
Speaker 1: that inventory falls back in that four months range and
35:54
Speaker 1: population growth here in Dallas fort Worth continues to grow.
35:58
Speaker 1: We're back in that accelerant of pricing again. Yeah, one
36:02
Speaker 1: hundred percent. It's going to be interesting.
36:05
Speaker 2: I don't want to make any forecasts around the behavior
36:09
Speaker 2: of a massive amount of human beings.
36:11
Speaker 1: It's difficult to tell. What I will say is that.
36:15
Speaker 2: You know, every like you said, every point decrease in
36:17
Speaker 2: rates increases affordability by ten to twenty percent. Also, a
36:20
Speaker 2: ten percent decrease in asset prices increase the ability affordability
36:23
Speaker 2: by ten percent. And so I don't know that the
36:26
Speaker 2: floodgates are ever going to open, meaning I don't think
36:28
Speaker 2: we're going to see a rate environment that drops so
36:30
Speaker 2: drastically that that buying just increases, like the dam has
36:34
Speaker 2: broken and now all the buyers are flooding back in.
36:36
Speaker 2: I think that what we will see, what we can
36:39
Speaker 2: potentially see, is a prolonged period of time where day
36:44
Speaker 2: by day, seller by seller, people start to realize I've
36:49
Speaker 2: built a lot of equity in my home over the
36:51
Speaker 2: however many years this rate.
36:54
Speaker 1: That I'm switching out, it's time for me to move.
36:58
Speaker 2: And every day that I stay here, I am less
37:01
Speaker 2: emotionally attached to this three and a half percent rate
37:04
Speaker 2: that I have. I have to move on with my life,
37:07
Speaker 2: and if I don't do it now, prices eventually will
37:11
Speaker 2: continue to go up. They have not for a while,
37:13
Speaker 2: but like you just said, all of the job relocation,
37:16
Speaker 2: population growth, eventually those will start to inch prices back
37:21
Speaker 2: up in DFW. That's where I believe you may start
37:24
Speaker 2: to see people go, you know what, it's time for
37:26
Speaker 2: me to capitalize on my equity. Maybe I can negotiate
37:29
Speaker 2: a buydown or something on the other side, or just
37:31
Speaker 2: accept that I'm going to have a five point seventy
37:33
Speaker 2: five to six point twenty five or whatever rate in
37:36
Speaker 2: the future. It's time for me to move on. And
37:38
Speaker 2: so I don't know that you'll see the dam break.
37:40
Speaker 2: You'll see a You'll see a continuous drip of inventory
37:44
Speaker 2: in the market over the next few years of sellers
37:46
Speaker 2: who finally just believe it's time, and that is the
37:49
Speaker 2: market just slowly reaching equilibrium.
37:53
Speaker 1: If you're brand new in the business, what are you
37:55
Speaker 1: doing right now to start building your pipeline, your funnel
38:02
Speaker 1: of the type of clients that you would want to
38:04
Speaker 1: work with. What type of clients would you want to
38:06
Speaker 1: work with? If you're brand new, If I was brand new.
38:08
Speaker 2: If I was brand new when I was younger, especially,
38:11
Speaker 2: I would really be looking at two things.
38:13
Speaker 1: One because it never changes.
38:16
Speaker 2: Everybody I already know like and trust in this world
38:18
Speaker 2: is always going to be a source of business for
38:19
Speaker 2: you if you're not. I just man, if there's one
38:22
Speaker 2: thing I could do so much differently in my career
38:24
Speaker 2: when I first started, or go back in time.
38:27
Speaker 1: Every person that you know in this world is a
38:30
Speaker 1: referral source.
38:31
Speaker 2: You need to be positioning yourself as somebody who they
38:34
Speaker 2: can contribute to the growth of your business. Get use
38:38
Speaker 2: to asking for the business from the people that already know,
38:42
Speaker 2: like and trust you. There's no way you shouldn't be
38:44
Speaker 2: selling at least thirty homes a year if you just
38:47
Speaker 2: know people and you ask them for the business.
38:50
Speaker 1: So that's one. Two.
38:51
Speaker 2: As a specific niche new construction, you can absolutely crush
38:55
Speaker 2: it in right now. If I'm just looking at where
38:57
Speaker 2: would I want to focus potentially as far as marketing
39:00
Speaker 2: and things like that, first time home buyers buying new
39:03
Speaker 2: construction homes is the most incentivized area of the of
39:08
Speaker 2: the residential market. Right now, you have buyers that have
39:11
Speaker 2: accepted where rates are and you have sellers that have
39:16
Speaker 2: a lot of inventory to unload and are incentivized to
39:19
Speaker 2: make a deal work for that buyer in the form
39:21
Speaker 2: of rate, buy down, closing costs, all that type of stuff.
39:23
Speaker 2: You're not going to find a better deal than new
39:25
Speaker 2: construction right now, and you getting into this business can
39:29
Speaker 2: be a massive resource for first time home buyers. That's
39:32
Speaker 2: a who are also coming back into the market. So
39:34
Speaker 2: we look at those two trends. First time home buyer
39:36
Speaker 2: that that's becoming bigger market share, a new construction that's
39:41
Speaker 2: becoming that is a biggest a really big part of
39:43
Speaker 2: the re are the residential market right now highly incentivized.
39:48
Speaker 2: You may just focus on how do you become a
39:51
Speaker 2: source of education and attraction for first time home buyers.
39:55
Speaker 1: It's great, there's a lot of a lot of golden
39:57
Speaker 1: that what I would do is the same bury some
40:00
Speaker 1: is going back in time to start over. I would
40:04
Speaker 1: learn my tools of how I could be very efficient
40:09
Speaker 1: in utilizing the tools that were available at the time
40:12
Speaker 1: and that's available today. And what I mean by that
40:15
Speaker 1: is I didn't at twenty four years old when I
40:17
Speaker 1: got into this business selling, I wasn't trying to go
40:19
Speaker 1: after my sphere because I had wrongly put them in
40:22
Speaker 1: a bucket that they were broke, that they were still
40:25
Speaker 1: in college, that they couldn't afford a house. I didn't
40:28
Speaker 1: try to go after the rental side of things, and
40:30
Speaker 1: I didn't try to collect all their information. And if
40:34
Speaker 1: I could go back in time, what I would do
40:36
Speaker 1: is call every single one of my friends up, ask
40:38
Speaker 1: for their email address, their parents' email address, and start
40:43
Speaker 1: building a weekly newsletter to then start advertising and marketing
40:49
Speaker 1: everything that I do to build that expertise out and
40:53
Speaker 1: that still works today. You and I had lunch with
40:56
Speaker 1: someone who she was saying how she built a sixty
40:59
Speaker 1: thousand person email list and could email out anytime and
41:05
Speaker 1: count on making thousands upon thousands, tens of thousands of
41:08
Speaker 1: dollars anytime that she tried to or wanted to sell
41:12
Speaker 1: something to that list. And so, for whatever reason, we
41:17
Speaker 1: don't do that, whatever reason, we're not calling our sphere
41:21
Speaker 1: and asking for the business. And I didn't do it either.
41:24
Speaker 1: I get it. But the minute that I started being
41:27
Speaker 1: more intentional is the minute that my sphere business picked up.
41:30
Speaker 1: It's the minute that actually I got to work with
41:32
Speaker 1: higher income people. And I would tell you that where
41:37
Speaker 1: I have continuing to try to improve upon is the
41:40
Speaker 1: email list and sending information and content that I would
41:46
Speaker 1: want to read that is valuable. So when they think
41:49
Speaker 1: of real estate and my databases world, hopefully they think
41:52
Speaker 1: of Nick Good and the Good Home Team.
41:54
Speaker 2: It is so you know, we could do hours and
41:57
Speaker 2: hours and hours on this. This is how we built
41:58
Speaker 2: our businesses. You know there's other Good Home Team runs
42:01
Speaker 2: and this is how my sales team ran for a
42:02
Speaker 2: long time. Your your email list is everything, right, so
42:07
Speaker 2: when you continue to build your database, your email list,
42:10
Speaker 2: it is so cost cost effective and simple in this
42:15
Speaker 2: day and age to have to get yourself in front
42:17
Speaker 2: of and stay top of mind with your people. If
42:20
Speaker 2: you have the quality email list, through your newsletter, through
42:23
Speaker 2: buyer and seller alerts, right through home valuations, all the
42:26
Speaker 2: value that you can put in their inbox on a
42:28
Speaker 2: regular basis, Your whole business is just building a system
42:31
Speaker 2: around that and allowing yourself to be there when people
42:34
Speaker 2: raise their hands. That is that is the entire business.
42:37
Speaker 2: So your sphere of influence, get their darn emails. Don't
42:41
Speaker 2: just call them, continue to call them, right, but build
42:43
Speaker 2: your email list, build your database.
42:45
Speaker 1: That's that's huge. Yeah, and it adds to you know,
42:48
Speaker 1: Gary Keller talked about this in the Millionaire real estate
42:50
Speaker 1: Agent book, The Red Book, the thirty three touch yeah, right,
42:54
Speaker 1: so you know, you know, and I think it's probably
42:56
Speaker 1: higher than that now with how much you know, information
42:58
Speaker 1: overload we get where was you know when that book
43:01
Speaker 1: was written in the early two thousand, it was thirty
43:04
Speaker 1: three touches to really stay in front to you know,
43:06
Speaker 1: your database and your past clients are to continue to
43:09
Speaker 1: earn referrals and to do repeat business. And you were
43:12
Speaker 1: you were You're calling them quarterly, you were sending them emails,
43:15
Speaker 1: you were sending them handwritten notes, you were doing pop pies.
43:19
Speaker 1: And I think that there's there's ways that one you
43:22
Speaker 1: could do forty fifty touches, but then and then use
43:27
Speaker 1: custom automation because there's still too much where where I
43:32
Speaker 1: know that a CRM is just sending out generic junk,
43:34
Speaker 1: especially you loan officers. If you're a loan officer listening
43:37
Speaker 1: to this, I know that you're using the same CRM system,
43:40
Speaker 1: probably Total Expert or one of the other ones, because
43:43
Speaker 1: I get the same ye with the same subject line
43:46
Speaker 1: almost within minutes of each other, and that's not setting
43:50
Speaker 1: yourself apart. And if you if your database or your
43:54
Speaker 1: lead flow has signed up for multiple on multiple agent
43:57
Speaker 1: sites and they're sending the same thing, well, then you're
43:59
Speaker 1: not doing a great job of showing how to set
44:01
Speaker 1: yourself apart.
44:02
Speaker 2: Agreed, And with with everything you can do with AI
44:05
Speaker 2: these days to help build out more personalized touches, like,
44:08
Speaker 2: there's no reason you shouldn't be using those tools to
44:10
Speaker 2: set yourself apart, you know.
44:11
Speaker 1: With the other there's two other things I would do.
44:14
Speaker 1: I would do events, yes, and events that I want
44:18
Speaker 1: to do. You and I are bigger a golf You
44:21
Speaker 1: and I are bigger though, and to bourbon and smoking cigars.
44:26
Speaker 1: So I would do some events around probably cigars and bourbon. Right.
44:31
Speaker 1: I would do some events around maybe golf tournament charities
44:35
Speaker 1: and get your sphere in there. And then ultimately I
44:39
Speaker 1: would get Because Jesse and I weren't we weren't close
44:42
Speaker 1: back then, we didn't know each other, but I would today,
44:44
Speaker 1: I would get with Jesse, and I would I would
44:47
Speaker 1: do a at least a twice a month podcast. I
44:52
Speaker 1: wouldn't necessarily focus on going down and mastering YouTube and
44:57
Speaker 1: all the other things that you have to where you
44:59
Speaker 1: have to go be you know, a different person.
45:01
Speaker 2: Right.
45:02
Speaker 1: What I would do is I would come on to
45:05
Speaker 1: Jesse's studio tour studios dot com and I would just
45:08
Speaker 1: talk about educational pieces that were going out there. And
45:10
Speaker 1: then what I would do on the second one, and
45:13
Speaker 1: if your budget all out for the third or fourth one,
45:15
Speaker 1: as you start interviewing local businesses, you bring them in.
45:19
Speaker 1: That's the move, Yes, bring in local businesses. You bring
45:21
Speaker 1: in the city council, the mayor, the people running for
45:26
Speaker 1: office locally. You bring them in and interview them. And
45:30
Speaker 1: now that lives on your website, that lives on your
45:33
Speaker 1: YouTube channel, and then you ask them as when they
45:36
Speaker 1: come on as guests, you ask them to share it
45:37
Speaker 1: out on their social media then to tag you and
45:39
Speaker 1: so you are going to comment on there. And that
45:42
Speaker 1: all can be done by the way, at tourstudios dot com.
45:45
Speaker 1: Jesse doesn't pay us for that. We just want to
45:48
Speaker 1: help him out because the more that he can get
45:51
Speaker 1: people in here, the more that he can upgrade the studio.
45:56
Speaker 4: Yeah, one hundred percent.
45:57
Speaker 2: And that, like you just hit the nail on the head.
45:58
Speaker 2: We hadn't even talked about that. It's not like we
46:00
Speaker 2: plan that the local community podcast. Because here's the thing,
46:04
Speaker 2: even if you don't get a million downloads a month,
46:07
Speaker 2: you're creating a core advocate. Ever time you invite somebody
46:09
Speaker 2: onto the show, you're you're allowing people to partner with
46:13
Speaker 2: you to get exposure for their business. That reciprocation is huge.
46:17
Speaker 2: You're helping people, they'll help you. You don't even have
46:19
Speaker 2: to ask for it. They'll just become raving fans. So
46:22
Speaker 2: start a local podcast and try to help your local
46:24
Speaker 2: business owners. Guarantee it grows your real estate business.
46:27
Speaker 1: Right as we wrap up, right, and as agents are
46:30
Speaker 1: listening to just to this, they're going to support the
46:32
Speaker 1: vendors obviously, are the referrals of this the sponsors of
46:35
Speaker 1: this show Homeward DFW dot com. That's the best property
46:38
Speaker 1: management here in the Dallasport Worth area. And then pro
46:40
Speaker 1: Care Home Solutions. Right, you know you need handyman contracting, remodeling,
46:43
Speaker 1: from roofing, deciding to electrical diplombing and hvac. Pro Care
46:47
Speaker 1: Home Solutions can do it all. But go back in time. Okay, right,
46:52
Speaker 1: we weren't doing the podcast, but you were doing something
46:56
Speaker 1: else on video that was fun. Yeah, got eyeballs, and
47:03
Speaker 1: it was different, and it still would be different today
47:07
Speaker 1: because what what agents do is they copy too much, right,
47:11
Speaker 1: and and there's too many people now just trying to
47:14
Speaker 1: go and be the living in such and such city,
47:17
Speaker 1: neighborhood state and just doing neighborhood tours. And you know
47:21
Speaker 1: it's it's not themselves. But you were doing something that
47:24
Speaker 1: you enjoyed that got the personality out there, so that
47:30
Speaker 1: when when people were searching online or going down YouTube
47:33
Speaker 1: and watching the videos, they got a sense that they
47:35
Speaker 1: knew who you were and are.
47:37
Speaker 4: What was that? Man? I bet those are still out
47:41
Speaker 4: there somewhere.
47:42
Speaker 1: It is undoubtedly Dallas.
47:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll just say, did you guys plan this? We
47:46
Speaker 2: got some crap going on on the bat now, Yeah, No,
47:49
Speaker 2: that was just a blast. We had explain what it is.
47:51
Speaker 2: So yeah, so we started a community YouTube channel and
47:56
Speaker 2: we you know, I might even do it a little
47:59
Speaker 2: bit differently now or maybe even do more avenues. We
48:03
Speaker 2: just we were executors and we didn't know what we
48:06
Speaker 2: didn't know, so we just figured YouTube was the best
48:08
Speaker 2: way to do it. Nowadays, i'd probably chop it up
48:10
Speaker 2: and at TikTok's and all kinds of stuff like TikTok
48:13
Speaker 2: literally hadn't even launched back then, so it wasn't even
48:15
Speaker 2: a thing we would just pick and we had no
48:19
Speaker 2: rhyme or reason for it, so we could have been
48:21
Speaker 2: way more organized. A lot of other people will run
48:23
Speaker 2: with this and they'll do a way better job, but
48:25
Speaker 2: we just started in All Things DFW YouTube channel. But
48:30
Speaker 2: we made it ourselves. We talked about the stuff that
48:33
Speaker 2: we wanted to talk about. We shot reviews of taco
48:37
Speaker 2: places for like two straight years. Every week on Thursdays,
48:41
Speaker 2: we would eat tacos and we would film a review
48:44
Speaker 2: and would these things would be like twenty minutes long,
48:47
Speaker 2: maybe their long form, and people really really enjoyed them.
48:50
Speaker 2: We would talk about the things that we liked, our
48:52
Speaker 2: favorite local sporting events, in place to go, and of
48:55
Speaker 2: course we would make some real estate stuff in there,
48:57
Speaker 2: like maybe one out of every three videos would be
48:59
Speaker 2: more real estate related, you know, why people are moving
49:02
Speaker 2: from Texas to Texas from different areas and things like that.
49:06
Speaker 2: But also it was just an opportunity to showcase what
49:09
Speaker 2: we loved so much about our community, and we would
49:13
Speaker 2: always have you know, in the descriptors and things like that,
49:15
Speaker 2: like you know, our real estate page and all that
49:18
Speaker 2: type of stuff. But we didn't make it about that.
49:20
Speaker 2: It wasn't just like, hey, let's go tour this home today,
49:23
Speaker 2: because we didn't. We didn't want to get people only
49:26
Speaker 2: when they were looking at houses. We wanted to get
49:28
Speaker 2: people that were interested in our community the way that
49:31
Speaker 2: we were and draw attention to how much we love
49:34
Speaker 2: the community and maybe people would learn stuff about the
49:36
Speaker 2: community that they didn't know.
49:38
Speaker 1: And it ended up being a.
49:39
Speaker 2: Massive funnel for our real estate business because and I
49:43
Speaker 2: believe this, because it was just something that we really
49:45
Speaker 2: enjoyed doing, and I think people could see how genuine
49:48
Speaker 2: it was.
49:49
Speaker 1: No, they got to see the real you yeah, right,
49:51
Speaker 1: and that's what people want today. They feels like it's
49:55
Speaker 1: they're getting that voyeuristic, you know, insider behind the curtain
49:59
Speaker 1: view of all right, this is they're not polished all
50:02
Speaker 1: the time, they're not stuffy or we like the same things.
50:07
Speaker 1: There was a there was a person that that is
50:10
Speaker 1: inquiring about Homeward Property management and uh As taking that call.
50:15
Speaker 1: The gentleman talked about how he loved playing golf, and
50:18
Speaker 1: it was you know, there was a connection made there.
50:21
Speaker 1: It's like, hey, you know the the equity partners in
50:24
Speaker 1: Homeward love to play golf, they love to smoke scars,
50:26
Speaker 1: they love to drink bourbon. And you know after that,
50:30
Speaker 1: you saw emails go back and forth like I want
50:32
Speaker 1: to play like you know one, thank you and hopefully
50:35
Speaker 1: we can we can work together and take this stress
50:38
Speaker 1: off for my family and would love to play golf together. Yeah. Right,
50:42
Speaker 1: So people just want to be in connection with that,
50:45
Speaker 1: with people that they want trust but also have very
50:50
Speaker 1: very similar values.
50:53
Speaker 2: People want to do business with people they know like
50:55
Speaker 2: and trust, but they don't need to get to know
50:57
Speaker 2: like you and trust you through business, correct, They just
50:59
Speaker 2: need to know like trust you. So when you think
51:01
Speaker 2: about that, when you're thinking about your social media strategy
51:03
Speaker 2: all that type of stuff, just do whatever is genuinely
51:07
Speaker 2: you and people will be attracted to you.
51:10
Speaker 1: Well. And the last piece is what we're seeing because
51:14
Speaker 1: of our realtor Facebook group. If you're not part of
51:16
Speaker 1: DFW Realtors, just go search it on there. Pretty soon
51:19
Speaker 1: the DFW Reeler Network dot Com will forward to that,
51:23
Speaker 1: which I think is I think we're ready to be ready.
51:25
Speaker 1: I think we're ready to transfer that now. I think so.
51:28
Speaker 1: But if you go look at all the spam posts
51:31
Speaker 1: that we have to delete.
51:32
Speaker 4: Oh my gosh.
51:33
Speaker 1: And Jesse now is a moderator admin in there, and
51:36
Speaker 1: he gets to see. He gets the privilege of seeing
51:38
Speaker 1: and the fun opportunity of deleting and banning people.
51:42
Speaker 4: Yes, he's the most ruthless of all of us.
51:44
Speaker 1: Here's here's what I've quickly learned, is that all that
51:48
Speaker 1: spam that gets posted, and luckily we catch it, hopefully
51:52
Speaker 1: fast enough so that it doesn't just bother the crap
51:55
Speaker 1: out of people that everyone. I don't know what you're
51:59
Speaker 1: thinking when you just think, I'm going to throw this
52:00
Speaker 1: out there and hope that someone sees it and does
52:04
Speaker 1: business with me, because all the crap that we're seeing,
52:07
Speaker 1: you wouldn't do business with yourself if you saw that.
52:09
Speaker 4: This's just generic nonsense.
52:12
Speaker 1: Really, it's AI generated crappy images. Yeah, it is AI
52:16
Speaker 1: generated crappy text. There's no connection, no warmness, no feeling,
52:21
Speaker 1: there's no emotion to it.
52:23
Speaker 2: It's not your personality, no, no personality. And they all
52:26
Speaker 2: just end up looking the same.
52:27
Speaker 1: And you know what I've done back At times, I'll
52:29
Speaker 1: send very similar spam messages back and they don't want
52:33
Speaker 1: to do business with me either, just as a test. Yeah,
52:37
Speaker 1: and it's almost the same format as the one that
52:38
Speaker 1: they sent. That's really funny because what I'm saying is like, guys,
52:43
Speaker 1: this is unfortunately how the real estate, this is how
52:46
Speaker 1: any business owner, small business owner markets that they just
52:49
Speaker 1: they think they're doing good and it's not. You gotta
52:51
Speaker 1: find that connection piece. You got to find that emotional
52:56
Speaker 1: point and you got to find it. You got to
52:58
Speaker 1: be yourself so that they can people get a glimpse
53:01
Speaker 1: to see who you actually are, so that they can
53:03
Speaker 1: determine whether they want to do business with you or not.
53:06
Speaker 1: And the ones that do are going to be some
53:08
Speaker 1: of your most enjoyable, best clients you've ever worked with.
53:10
Speaker 4: And they'll be referral sources for life.
53:14
Speaker 2: Episode six in the books, everybody, we put her to sleep.
53:18
Speaker 1: We put her asleep. That's I hope we didn't put
53:20
Speaker 1: you to sleep. Yeah, So if you can go subscribe
53:24
Speaker 1: to our YouTube channel, go watch those shorts, leave us
53:26
Speaker 1: some comments on there. We want to see those subscribers
53:29
Speaker 1: go up, because this is what we're putting where really
53:32
Speaker 1: housing this podcast, This video show the glimpse into our
53:37
Speaker 1: weekly world. And uh if you do like to just
53:41
Speaker 1: listen to the audio, because I don't think Jess that
53:42
Speaker 1: we figured how to put it on Spotify, the video
53:44
Speaker 1: on Spotify yet, No, he has not. He's going to
53:48
Speaker 1: learn it because I've been researching that. I'll send it
53:50
Speaker 1: to you. You can go on Spotify, you can leave
53:53
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