Latest / Inside Politics / Will the Coalition split or stay together? We explain the dramatic about-face

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Will the Coalition split or stay together? We explain the dramatic about-face · Inside Politics

• 0:01
  S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
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  S1: This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Thursday, May 22nd.
• 0:10
  S1: It was high drama this week, with the nationals telling
• 0:13
  S1: the liberals that they wanted a political divorce, a possible
• 0:16
  S1: split in the coalition, which has existed in some form
• 0:19
  S1: or another since 1923, was sparked by nationals leader David
• 0:23
  S1: Littleproud insisting on certain policies, notably an ongoing commitment to
• 0:28
  S1: nuclear power, which Liberal leader Sussan Ley felt she could
• 0:31
  S1: not agree to. But by Thursday afternoon the separation, like
• 0:35
  S1: a marriage on the rocks, was placed on hold while
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  S1: further conversations took place. So what happened and what's going
• 0:41
  S1: to be better for both parties and indeed for the
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  S1: political health of the nation? Here to discuss all this drama,
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  S1: we have our freshly minted chief political commentator, James Massola,
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  S1: and also freshly minted, our political correspondent Natassia Chrysanthos. Welcome
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  S1: to you both. James, tell us how these dramatic events
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  S1: came about. We know that nationals leader David Littleproud drove
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  S1: to Albury on Wednesday last week to negotiate the coalition
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  S1: agreement with the new Liberal leader, Sussan Ley, who was
• 1:08
  S1: with her dying mother. What did Littleproud want? What were
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  S1: his demands?
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  S2: Look, the starting point for the demands, jacki, was four
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  S2: things he wanted the coalition or the nationals, one of
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  S2: the coalition, to remain committed to nuclear power, to remain
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  S2: committed to laws that could potentially force supermarkets to sell
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  S2: some of their outlets if they were found to be,
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  S2: you know, engaged in anti-competitive conduct, um, you know, to divest, um,
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  S2: they wanted a $20 billion regional future fund, uh, which
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  S2: they'd taken to the last election to be kept in place.
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  S2: And they wanted basically updated provisions for the universal service
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  S2: obligation that, uh, telecoms providers are obligated to provide, which means,
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  S2: you know, decent reception essentially for your mobile phone in
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  S2: the bush, Decent mail service, those sorts of things.
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  S1: And they also were asking for basically no cabinet solidarity
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  S1: that they wouldn't have to be bound by cabinet solidarity
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  S1: with the liberals. Right?
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  S2: Yeah. Which look, quite frankly, is an extraordinary request and
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  S2: unprecedented request and one that, you know, no leader could
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  S2: ever agree to. But yes, that was the final thing.
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  S2: It's something that David Littleproud didn't mention at all during
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  S2: his sort of, you know, the big press conference announcing
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  S2: the split, but which the liberals have been very keen
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  S2: to say, well, hang on, there was this other thing
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  S2: and it's kind of a non-negotiable.
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  S1: So they're basically saying we demand these four key policies, which,
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  S1: to be fair, are nationalist policies that they're obviously they've
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  S1: developed and they stand by. But we also want the
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  S1: right to speak out against any other policies within the
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  S1: coalition that we don't agree with.
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  S2: Yeah. And, you know, to my exact point like that
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  S2: would be unprecedented, Jack. You don't get the luxury of
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  S2: doing that. You have the argument in the cabinet room
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  S2: or the shadow Cabinet Room. This is how politics has
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  S2: worked for, you know, You know, 130, whatever it is,
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  S2: years you have the arguments in the room, you settle
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  S2: the position, you come out and you present a united front.
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  S2: So for the Nats and the libs to be sort
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  S2: of if, if it were to have been approved for
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  S2: them to be coming out saying, well, we take a
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  S2: different position on this, it would be without precedent.
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  S1: Yeah. It was almost like a sort of a demand
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  S1: that there was no way that Susan Lee was ever
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  S1: going to be able to take it up to us.
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  S1: How did Lee respond to those demands? So there in
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  S1: Albury and Susan Lee, we should say, is having the
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  S1: worst week of her life or one of the worst
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  S1: weeks of her life, because she's nursing her mother through
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  S1: her last days of her life and then having to
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  S1: arrange a funeral. So all of this is happening in
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  S1: tandem with that, um, Littleproud comes to her with these demands.
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  S1: What does she say?
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  S3: She says no. In short, um, and that's for a
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  S3: kind of two main reasons. On the cabinet solidarity point.
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  S3: As James just mentioned, it's untenable to have shadow ministers
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  S3: who disagree with the position of the party. Um, so
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  S3: that was never going to work. And then on the
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  S3: policy points. So these were coalition policies going into the election.
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  S3: The National's argument were these are the policies we promised
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  S3: voters who elected us. We owe it to them. But
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  S3: Lee came out on her first day as leader and
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  S3: said no policies adopted, no policies abandoned. We are going
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  S3: to start from scratch on everything. And she made that
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  S3: as an undertaking to her party room, and she made
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  S3: that as an undertaking to the Australian people. Um, and so,
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  S3: you know, you can see both of their interests coming
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  S3: through here. Um, the nationals have fought hard for these policies.
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  S3: They said, we want to go forward and build on them.
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  S3: We don't have to want to have to relitigate all
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  S3: of those things. That's a reasonable point from their perspective.
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  S1: I mean, in defence of the Nat's position, I suppose
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  S1: they're saying that they want to keep faith with the
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  S1: voters that have just elected them on the back of
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  S1: these policies. But the liberals have a divergent sort of interest,
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  S1: which is we just got roundly sort of executed at
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  S1: the polls because of our policies. So we obviously need
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  S1: to rebuild and remake those policies to keep faith with
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  S1: our voters.
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  S3: Yeah, and that was the point that Zoe McKenzie, um,
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  S3: a Liberal moderate MP made this week, which is, I think,
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  S3: why a few liberals are saying, you know, this is
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  S3: kind of the way it is those policies let the
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  S3: nationals keep all of their seats. And those policies potentially
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  S3: contributed to the loss of dozens of Liberal seats. So
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  S3: they've got very different interests here.
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  S1: Therein lies the entire sort of dilemma. Lee, after this,
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  S1: she said no to those demands. The Nats had a
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  S1: party room meeting and they decided they were not going
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  S1: to back down. Lee put a counter offer, I think,
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  S1: in the following days, and said she just wanted to
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  S1: sort the frontbench out first and, you know, her shadow ministry.
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  S1: And then the Nats had another meeting, I think, on
• 5:37
  S1: Tuesday morning. And that was when they decided to formally
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  S1: break with the liberals. But how much notice, James, did
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  S1: David Littleproud give uh, give Sussan Ley before he announced
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  S1: it publicly.
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  S2: It was about 45 minutes. Um, yeah. They met Tuesday
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  S2: morning at around 1015, 1030. I just happened to be
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  S2: walking around the corridors of Parliament and saw Littleproud walking
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  S2: into Lee's office. Um, we know it was from what
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  S2: Susan said, a 30 minute meeting, pretty quick and fairly
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  S2: pro forma. And then he walked out and said, right,
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  S2: you know, 45 minutes notice.
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  S4: Our party room has got to a position where we
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  S4: will not be reentering a coalition agreement with the Liberal
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  S4: Party after this election.
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  S2: So she convened Sussan Ley an emergency meeting of the
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  S2: Liberal Party party room to let them know what had happened.
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  S5: And while I have enormous respect for David and his team,
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  S5: it is disappointing that the National Party has decided today
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  S5: to leave the coalition. But the most important thing I
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  S5: want to say is this the nationals door remains open
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  S5: and our door remains open, and we look forward with
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  S5: optimism to rejoining at some point in the future.
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  S2: If we could just dial back one step here, Jackie.
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  S2: I want to make a couple of points. Susan Lee's
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  S2: been the leader of the Liberal Party for. I think
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  S2: it's nine days now. This happened on the seventh day.
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  S2: Her mum had died three days earlier. She was in Albury,
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  S2: you know, beginning to make the arrangements for, um, for
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  S2: a funeral. Um, she had said very clearly and very publicly,
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  S2: we are going to take our time and digest this
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  S2: election result because, you know, as Tarr said, it was
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  S2: a thumping.
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  S5: Can I firstly thank David Littleproud for driving down the
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  S5: Hume Highway to meet me in my office in my
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  S5: home town so that I could spend my mum's final
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  S5: days close to her.
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  S2: The Liberal Party hadn't even had a chance to meet
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  S2: to consider the National Party's demands. Those four main demands,
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  S2: all four of them, are probably likely to have been
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  S2: supported by the Liberal Party.
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  S1: The policies?
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  S2: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sorry. Yes. The policies. Yeah. But it
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  S2: was a timing thing. The Nats wanted it immediately. It was, um,
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  S2: you know, in my view, uh confected demands. I mean,
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  S2: it's not like, um, the liberals suddenly going to completely
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  S2: change what they believe and say, no, we're not going
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  S2: to do any of this stuff that we've believed in until,
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  S2: you know, six weeks ago or whenever the election was.
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  S2: It's a confected set of reasons to leave. I think
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  S2: the real reason why the Nats have left is because
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  S2: of net zero. Now they deny that.
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  S1: And just remind listeners that the coalition remains formally committed
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  S1: to net zero emissions by 2050. But obviously, we know
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  S1: that the nationals have been very keen to abandon that
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  S1: arrangement and want the liberals to do so, too. So
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  S1: that's sort of been a key tension point in the
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  S1: climate wars over the last ten years, you could say.
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  S1: Let's turn to what happened on Thursday afternoon. Now, it's
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  S1: hard to keep up, actually, with what seems to be
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  S1: like a toxic marriage, where one minute there's a breakup,
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  S1: the next minute there's a make up, just like the
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  S1: Katy Perry song. Tell us what's happened on Thursday afternoon.
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  S3: So, quite remarkably, 48 hours after David Littleproud said the
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  S3: nationals would be leaving the coalition for the first time
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  S3: in 38 years, that is no longer definitely the case.
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  S3: So Littleproud on Thursday gave a sudden press conference in
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  S3: the corridors of parliament.
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  S6: All good.
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  S4: Thank you. We've, uh you're right.
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  S3: In which he said that the breakup was basically a
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  S3: break and they were on pause.
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  S4: In a mature and sensible way. And I'm proud of
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  S4: the fact that our guys are prepared to to accept
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  S4: that in being sent home today, despite the fact that
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  S4: I was about to announce to you all this afternoon,
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  S4: our shadow spokesman, because I think this is a far
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  S4: more important.
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  S3: Littleproud and Lee had planned, uh, on Thursday afternoon to
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  S3: reveal their respective shadow cabinets. So they're the spokespeople that
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  S3: talk about things like Treasury and Foreign Affairs and whatnot.
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  S3: And they were going to go it alone, but they
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  S3: had both decided to call that off while they tried
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  S3: to broker some kind of agreement. And basically where we
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  S3: got to was that this these sticking points around the
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  S3: four policies that the nationals wanted, they would give the
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  S3: liberals time to at least have a conversation about those
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  S3: before pulling the plug.
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  S7: Or getting back together.
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  S4: After. Hold on, hold on. I'm sorry.
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  S8: So you're getting back together?
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  S4: No. This will allow time for a process for Susan
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  S4: Lee to call her party room together to discuss those
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  S4: four policy areas.
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  S3: Quite interestingly, this all played out over the ABC. Um,
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  S3: because on Wednesday night, you had national Senator Bridget McKenzie
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  S3: go on Sarah Ferguson's 730 program and say the only
• 10:20
  S3: thing we care about is the four policies. Um, Sarah
• 10:24
  S3: Ferguson asked her, well, what about Susan Lee's claim about
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  S3: this shadow cabinet confidentiality point? McKenzie said, that's not a
• 10:32
  S3: problem for us. Someone in Lee's office was watching and
• 10:35
  S3: quite displeased by that version of events, so they texted
• 10:37
  S3: in to the ABC. Um, and so by the end
• 10:40
  S3: of the program, Sarah Ferguson's there saying, you know, Lee's
• 10:43
  S3: contacted us to dispute this basically, and says they've got
• 10:46
  S3: in writing that the Knights did want this shadow cabinet
• 10:49
  S3: confidentiality exemption.
• 10:50
  S9: Now, as that interview played, we've just received a note
• 10:53
  S9: from Susan Lee's office saying it is not correct to
• 10:56
  S9: suggest that Shadow Cabinet solidarity was not a sticking point
• 11:00
  S9: and they that is Susan Lee's office have that in writing.
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  S3: So everyone went to bed on Wednesday night and then
• 11:07
  S3: lo and behold, Thursday morning David Littleproud is again on
• 11:10
  S3: the ABC. He's asked what's the go basically. And he says, no,
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  S3: Susan didn't agree to this shadow cabinet confidentiality thing. And
• 11:19
  S3: that's perfectly reasonable. That's fine with us. We just want
• 11:23
  S3: our four policies. And so apparently Lee's office heard this
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  S3: and they were like la di da great. Come back in,
• 11:29
  S3: let's talk about it. And as simply as that, um,
• 11:32
  S3: the the backtrack was done.
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  S2: It's great to see the national broadcaster playing such an
• 11:39
  S2: important role in the lives of our conservative parties. Indeed,
• 11:43
  S2: they often criticise aunty, but yeah.
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  S1: I know they're actually mediating. It's mediating this dispute between
• 11:49
  S1: the two conservative parties. Um, I mean, I keep sort
• 11:53
  S1: of coming back to this metaphor of the toxic marriage
• 11:55
  S1: which everybody is going for, but it feels like that
• 11:57
  S1: felt like gaslighting to me. what David Littleproud did. Um, anyway, James,
• 12:02
  S1: is it possible to predict where this is going to go?
• 12:05
  S2: Yeah. I mean, I thought the whole way through that, um,
• 12:09
  S2: they'll get back together at some point, but not, you know,
• 12:12
  S2: given what we've heard from Susan Lee and what have you,
• 12:15
  S2: not in this term or only towards the end of
• 12:17
  S2: this term. I mean, I've straight after this, uh, you know,
• 12:20
  S2: recordings done. Jack, I've got to go to my physio
• 12:22
  S2: and get this whiplash treated. It's, um, it's just the
• 12:26
  S2: events of the last couple of days are quite extraordinary.
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  S2: And look, um, put aside what David Littleproud and Bridget
• 12:33
  S2: McKenzie are saying. You know, put aside the posturing. This
• 12:37
  S2: is a win for Sussan Ley. And she was right
• 12:40
  S2: to say shadow cabinet confidentiality must be maintained. I mean
• 12:44
  S2: she she didn't give ground. That's the right thing to do.
• 12:47
  S2: Now we're seeing a back down. And, you know, quite
• 12:50
  S2: frankly a very embarrassing backdown for the nationals and for me, Jacqui,
• 12:54
  S2: the question then becomes, uh, one about David Littleproud's Judgment
• 12:59
  S2: and the judgment of the leadership team in the nets.
• 13:02
  S2: What were they doing if they get back together two
• 13:04
  S2: days after this breakup or whatever you want to call it?
• 13:07
  S2: It's it's it's ludicrous. Frankly, I don't have another word
• 13:10
  S2: for it. So yes, they can get back together, but
• 13:12
  S2: can he stay?
• 13:14
  S3: And realistically, they're not going to get those four demands
• 13:17
  S3: set in stone by the time that a shadow cabinet
• 13:19
  S3: needs to be named in July when Parliament returns. So
• 13:22
  S3: he said that on Thursday. He said, you know, ideally
• 13:25
  S3: we walk back into Parliament with our shadow cabinet. So
• 13:28
  S3: you have, you know, you know, who's who in the
• 13:30
  S3: zoo when you sit in your first Question time.
• 13:31
  S1: Was he saying, just to clarify, sorry to interrupt. Was
• 13:34
  S1: he saying that they want a coalition shadow cabinet.
• 13:38
  S3: Ideally a coalition shadow cabinet back together. They want that
• 13:42
  S3: ideally by July 22nd. So they look they look like
• 13:46
  S3: they know what they're doing. And then, you know, the
• 13:48
  S3: nuts don't have to go sit with the teals and
• 13:50
  S3: the greens. They can sit on their coalition side. But
• 13:54
  S3: there is no way that the liberals form their energy
• 13:57
  S3: policy and decide what they're doing on that by the
• 14:00
  S3: 22nd of July. And similarly, they've committed to a root
• 14:03
  S3: and branch review of all their policies. Um, that's probably
• 14:06
  S3: going to take half a year. So either way, I
• 14:09
  S3: think the nationals are coming back probably knowing that baking
• 14:13
  S3: in for policies into all four policies, into a coalition
• 14:18
  S3: agreement within the next six weeks is probably not going
• 14:21
  S3: to happen.
• 14:22
  S2: But it's not without precedent either. Look, it's important to
• 14:25
  S2: make this point for the listeners here. Some coalition agreements
• 14:28
  S2: do have specific policy demands written into them. 2016 When
• 14:32
  S2: Malcolm Turnbull just snuck back into government, there was a
• 14:35
  S2: protracted negotiation then over what the nationals wanted. And, you know,
• 14:39
  S2: Malcolm Turnbull did give some ground. There were some policies,
• 14:42
  S2: as I understand it written in, but on other occasions
• 14:45
  S2: it's just a sort of bare bones agreement. This is
• 14:48
  S2: how many, um, you know, shadow cabinet or cabinet spots.
• 14:51
  S2: We're entitled. This is how many you get. We'll work
• 14:54
  S2: together and that's it basically. Then they work it out
• 14:56
  S2: on a piecemeal basis.
• 14:58
  S1: It's not always an ironclad prenup. It's more of a
• 15:00
  S1: kind of broad brushstrokes, agreement in a lot of cases.
• 15:03
  S2: Precisely.
• 15:04
  S1: Listen, guys, this is fascinating. It's going to keep playing out.
• 15:06
  S1: So we're going to come back to you whenever we
• 15:08
  S1: need to. Probably next week to get the next installment.
• 15:11
  S1: And who knows where this crazy ride will end. So
• 15:14
  S1: thanks very much.
• 15:15
  S2: Thanks very much, Jack.
• 15:16
  S3: Thanks.
• 15:18
  S1: Today's episode was produced by Tammy Mills with technical assistance
• 15:21
  S1: from Debbie Harrington and Belen Sanchez. Tom McKendrick is our
• 15:26
  S1: head of audio. To listen to our episodes as soon
• 15:29
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• 15:36
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• 15:45
  S1: or smh.com.au. I'm Jacqueline Maley. Thank you for listening.