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Phillies/Dodgers MLB + WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Wednesday 9/17/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. OWN four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: next have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: hat Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have with you, as I always am until I die,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday it did
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Oh and five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: The slump yesterdays, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: should do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's towed back with you for better
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: off dead? Wednesday, September seventeenth. Am I right about that?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm like looking down at like, like,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: where's the date here? Where's the clock at the bottom
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: right of the screen. Here we went to and oh
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: yesterday with a money line underdog cash as well. So
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: how about that? We got the under on the Cubs pirates,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: although Paul Schiens actually had one of his worst outings
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: of his career, but the game's still still under. I
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: think he gave up. Maybe did he give it three
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: or four in runs? He only lasted like three and
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: two thirds or something. It was at least his shortest
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: outing ever. But I didn't expect to rely on Pittsburgh's bullpen.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: But their bullpen actually defined and we got there was
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: a four to one Cub win. I think, so the
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: game stayed under the whole way. I think. I think
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: the first five might have actually been a four run
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: first five innings, so I think if he had under
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: first five, it probably didn't win. So interesting, the full
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: game wound up being the right way to go on that.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Maybe a little bit lucky on that one, but sometimes
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: he got to take the luck. And then we did
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: get the win on Seattle in the WNBA, and they
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: actually had to overcome a fourteen point deficit in the game.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I was thinking we were dad, dude, even though they
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: were actually I think they were winning or they were
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: behind by like one point a halftime. It was there
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: right in that game. I'm like, okay, and then I
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: think they fell way behind in the third quarter. I'm like,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: all right, we're we're done now. And then they wound
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: up winning the game. Anyway. They had a nice fourth
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: quarter comeback, which I guess was their largest comeback in
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: franchise playoff history. Either way, I'll take it, man, We
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: got the We got the outright underdog win two. They
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: were losing like a lot of that game, but yeah,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: an excellent comeback from them. I didn't dig into the
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: box where you had to see if it was like
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: misleading or anything like that. But I'm gonna take the
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: win for now. I'm in a basket it. That's what
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: we do on the show. We win. Man. I'm gonna
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: give about three baseball plays today. I'm not gonna give
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: on anything on the w NBA today, even though I
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: did give out plays the last two days. We're one
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: on one in the NBA playoffs. With that money line cash,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: I think we're maybe even a little bit ahead with
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: those two plays. Yeah, let's get right into it, man,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Hold on a second, Wait a minute. It's like, it
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: looks like I'm not sharing my screen. What's going on here?
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Like Streamyard, there's something going on with
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Let's go to the breakdown. I gotta try to this out. Oh,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I guess it is sharing. It looked like it wasn't
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: sharing it, but now it looks like it is. I
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: don't know what's going on, man, I don't know what's happening,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: But now I think it's fine. WNBA. Of course, the
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: playoffs continue. We have the next two games here that
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: the teams that didn't play yesterday. So these teams have
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: had a couple of days off, which kind of makes
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: sense as far as these teams having the extra day
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: off because these are the matchups that are the furthest
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: away geographically, so that's probably why they were scheduled this way.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: The ones that we had yesterday were a little bit
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: closer geographically, so Phoenix has to go to New York.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Phoenix was my loser the other day. They're a much
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: much better home team and they actually lost on the road.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: So I kind of think the series is over, man.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I know, Phoenix definitely a competitive team. The Liberty. I
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: mean I thought they were gonna struggle maybe at Phoenix.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: The Liberty will have to win this game though, because
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I really don't think they want to have to go
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: back to Phoenix again because Phoenix is so much better
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: at home. So if Phoenix is somehow, somehow able to
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: win this game on the road and extend it to
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: a game three in Phoenix, the Liberty might be up
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: against it. Man. So I mean it's a big game. Obviously,
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Phoenix are facing elimination. Liberty. I probably have to treat
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: this like an elimination game, like I said, because I honestly,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I am not sure they're gonna be able to win
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: at Phoenix and the way that they played in Phoenix
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: this season suggests otherwise, even though I know they beat
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: us with that play the other day. I think the
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Liberty will get this game. Though They're seventeen and five
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: at home, very very good home record, Phoenix twelve and
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: ten on the road, so not horrible but slightly above
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: five hundred. It's a big uh. They have to travel far.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Ad Block keeps up, dude. I absolutely hate that it
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: comes up sometimes on the show, Like why the fuck
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: do they give you this? I wonder if I can
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: change the settings, Like every time it updates, it like
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: shocks you because you're in the middle of like using
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the that this is Firefox at least you're in the
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: middle of using the window, and then it like pops
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: it up. I'm like, what the fuck dude. Anyway, Yeah,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: so I don't even remember what I was saying. Thanks
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: a Block, Fuck you Phoenix. Yeah. I mean they were
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: having to travel to New York, so it's not an
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: easy spot for them. If we dig into what happened
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: in this first game. I mean, neither team actually shot
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: really well, but Phoenix just shot terribly, So there is
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: an argument for a zigzag here where Phoenix because they
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: did lose at home. There is maybe an argument that
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: they are the team to make the adjustments here because
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: they played so bad, and if you're the Liberty, maybe
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: you're feeling a little bit like good about yourselves. You
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: got that game on the road, feeling pretty good. You
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: get to go back home. Everything worked for you in
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: this game, although they do have some things to still
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: clean up, so maybe that won't be the case. They
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: actually had a ton of turnovers twenty one turnovers Phoenix
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: plus ten in turnovers and still didn't win the game.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Not a great sign, but again a lot of it
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: is because they're shooting was terrible thirty two point five
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: percent from the field twenty three point one percent from three.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Those are statistical outliers, so I do expect Phoenix probably
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: will shoot better. But again it's on the road, so
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: they're probably not gonna win the turnover battle this time.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: And the Liberty did dominate the rebound battle with them,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: which is more of a predictable stats that might happen again.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in towards the Liberty. It looks
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: like even though they dropped from a three and a
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: half point favorites or two and a half point favorite,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: the line is about right. Like I know, yesterday I
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: pointed out how the Seattle Vegas line is the same
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: as it was in the other team's venue, which made
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: no sense to me. But the lines today basically are
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: accounting for home court as far as I can tell.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: As the Liberty, well, actually the Liberty were what they were.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: I think they actually opens like a two point favorite
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: in that game, or two and a half point favorite.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: So I guess you could argue maybe there is a
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: little bit of line value on Phoenix here, because although
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I said that the Liberty were just favored by too
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: much in that first game. So but but then again,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: doesn't that mean I guess that means that maybe this
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: line should shouldn't even be this high, right, I mean,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean it's this game confuses me.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Sixty percent of the tickets, sixty six percent of cash
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: on the Liberty, they're down from three and a half
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: to two and a half, kind of creeping towards the
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: same line that they were at Phoenix really, to be honest,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: but I tend to think the Liberty do get this game, though,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, it does look like the cash are coming
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: in on them. They're much much better at home. It
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: is a difficult travel spot for Phoenix. I think in
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: a situation like this, maybe the experience that the Liberty
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: have gets it done here. Because they did win the
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: championship last year. I mean, I know that puts a
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: target on their back, but I think they may be
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: able to get it done in that game. But it's
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: definitely not one that I would want to give out
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: a play on at all. And then Minnesota at Golden State.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: This is the biggest mismatch out of any of the series,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: and Minnesota is the best team in the league. Golden
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: State they're the eight seed and they are probably the
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: weakest team that did make the playoffs. The fact, I
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: think they're a new team, so it's been pretty impressive.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, they made the playoffs, they have been a
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: decent team. They've been pretty decent as an underdog. But
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: they're also without their best player, Calea Thornton. Although they
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: were playing pretty well for a while without her, but
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: you get into the playoffs, maybe it starts to catch
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: up with you a little bit. But Minnesota did just
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: beat them by nine points in Game one at home.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: If you dig into this one, I mean, I think
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: it was kind of a statistical anomaly, and Minnesota shot
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: ridiculously fifty one point five percent from the field forty
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: one point seven percent from three, and there's no way
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: that happens again. Golden State was particularly awful thirty three
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: point nine percent from the field, so almost like an
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: eighteen eighteen percent discrepancy between the two teams field goal percentages.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna happen again. Golden State also
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: pretty bad from three to twenty nine percent from three,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: So I do think there's gonna be some sort of
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: regression here. But is it gonna be enough for Golden
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: State to win this game? I doubt it. I mean,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: will it be enough for them to cover that's a
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: different story maybe. I mean, Minnesota does have to go
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: out on the road here. Golden State decent home team,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: fourteen and eight, Minnesota same record on the road actually,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: so I mean I would slightly lean to Golden State.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: I think there is room for like regression and progression
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: here based on how like disparate the statistics weren't that
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: first game. You're asking Minnesota to lay a huge price,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: and they don't need to win this game by margin, right,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: like they just need to win this game. They're also
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: probably figuring like, well, even if they don't win this game,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: they still have a home game left, which they'll take
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: care of business in that game if it happens. But
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: I do expect them to win, but I would lean
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: to Golden State to cover the spread. Seventy eight percent
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: of tickets, eighty one percent of the cash on Minnesota.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is up from ten to ten and a half.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: That line makes sense because I think they were thirteen
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: and a half at home, so that line does make sense.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: So do with that information what you will, but we
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: won't get involved in the WNBA today. I'm scared. I'm
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: scared to do it. Man, Let's go to MLB here.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have plays on two of the bigger games,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: actually in one of the games that isn't as big,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: but all three of them really a playoff implication, so
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: we'll actually have plays in games that are games that
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: kind of matter. We do have some afternoon baseball here,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: some of the teams I think are traveling after this.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: We have a fairly early start time with Chicago Cubs
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh at twelve thirty five Eastern on MLB Network.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's about to potentially get swept here. They've only scored
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: one run in the series. It's been a very low
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: scoring series, which luckily for us because that was my
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: one baseball play the under yesterday. The Cubs, I mean,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: they're still fighting, although I believe so the Brewers of
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: clinched a playoffs spot, but they have not clinched a
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: division yet. I mean, the Cubs pretty much guarantee they're
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: gonna be a wildcard at this point, but they do
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: have a chance to win the division, so they do
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: have reason to still play. But Pittsburgh, you know, trying
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: to avoid a sweep. They have the Cubs in their
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: house right now. I think that is a motivating factor
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: for Pittsburgh as well. So you could argue maybe the
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh actually has more motivation in this game because the
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Cubs have already pretty much taken care of business. I
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: know they need to win every game, but they know
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: they're secure in the wildcard. They probably don't think they're
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to win the division. It would be
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: really unlikely that they do. So they do have a game.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: They start a series against the Reds up next, which
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: is a team that's kind of hanging around the Wildcard
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: race still, although barely so. They may potentially overlook Pittsburgh
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: here and start looking ahead. It's one of those games again.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: I talk about this the getaway day scenario. I talked
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: about that with Philadelphia against Kansas City over the weekend
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. When you have a good team and they're
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: on the Virgil sweep in the series and they have
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: to fly out like later in the day and go
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: somewhere else, it can affect them a little bit. Although
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: this is less travel than like Philadelphia had to travel
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: across country. Chicago just has to go from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: so that's not really a big deal. But they do
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: still have to leave, you know, pack up and travel.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: So it is still not the greatest spot for the
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Cubs here. As far as the bullpens are concerned, the
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Cubs do have the better of the two bullpens. Not
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: a ton of usage yesterday really on either side. Cubs
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: use a little bit more, at least as far as
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: the number of arms that they use out of the bullpen. Yesterday,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: the Cubs on the surface looked like they should have
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: the pitching edge, when I'm not entirely sure about that.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: With the starting pitching with Matthew Boyd. He's had a
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: really good season three point oh five VRRA, one point
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: oh seven WHIP. He is a little bit worse on
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: the road three point six two ERA on the road,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: so a little bit more beatable on the road. What
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I've pointed out though, is he's been doing a little
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: bit worse recently. I think he's wearing down a little bit.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: He's at one hundred and seventy one to third innings
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: pitched this year, and he hasn't approached that since twenty
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: nineteen when he was back with Detroit, so he's had
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: a lot of shorter seasons since then. He's a bit
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: older now, so there are some concerns with Boyd here,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: and I think that concern is gonna make its way
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs too, man, so that is something to watch. Like.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rate is way down this month. He only
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: has four strikeouts and twelve innings two walks over two
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: starts four point five RA give it four runs last
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: time out at home against Tampa Bay. Only had one
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: strikeout in that game at two walks, So there are
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: definitely concerns here. And prior to a pretty good starting
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: against Washington that he had to start September seven Newties
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Tour in runs he allowed four or more and runs
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: in three straight starts to close August. Two of them
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: being on the road, by the way, but one of
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: them against San Francisco pitcher friendly park and they can't
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: hit that well. The other one at Colorado. Maybe give
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: him a pass for that because of his course field,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: tough environment to pitch him. But I worry about Boyd
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit. His numbers are decent against Pittsburgh, though
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: not as good as you would think. I mean, obviously
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: in this game, Pittsburgh has the lesser offense. It's like
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: not even close, although again the Cub's offense has been
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: struggling a bit recently. Boyd has fifty at bats against
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh fourteen to six strike a walk ratio is not
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: that good too. Forty batting average is pretty low, but
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: a seven to sixty one ohps is a bit high.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Although both home runs that he's allowed from McCutcheon, so
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: you could argue that when one guy does the damage
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: like that, he can pitch around them. But I'm more
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: worried about him maybe wearing down a little bit. So
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: his recent form isn't that good. He's going up agains
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Johann ovi Eighto for Pittsburgh, who's got good numbers this
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: year two point eight one ERA, one point one to
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: seven WHIP, he's good at home, two point four to
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: five ERA at home, and he's the much more fresh
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: pitcher because he only started pitching in August this year,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: so he's with a way more fresh pitcher man. So
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: if you're looking at something like that, as far as
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: I think that does matter at this point in the season,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: even though I don't think ohvi Aedo is as good
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: as his numbers look. This month, he's walked three guys
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: in each outing. He's actually walked three in his last
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: three outings. One point six ninety IRA this month. I
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: mean that's good. He's got at least five innings of
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: both starts a lot only tour in runs combined, but
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: a nine to six strike a walk ratio that's not
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: really gonna cut it. That's too many walks. His numbers
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: against the Cobs are also not good. In fifty nine
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: at bats eight eight strike a walk ratio is pretty ugly,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: really ugly, three zero five batting average eight twelve ops allowed.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: So you gotta worry a little bit about OVI EIGHTO here.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in on the Pittsburgh side overall,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: I would probably actually agree with its eighty eight percent
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: of tickets eighty percent of the cash now on the Cubs,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: very public road favorite, they're down for minus one fifty
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: minus one thirty three. I worry about the spot and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: about Boyd potentially not doing well here. Man just wearing
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: down a little bit of the OVI EIGHTO. His stats
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: aren't very good against the Cubs, so you know, just
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: do with that information what you will. Looks like the
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: money came out on the under a little bit. I'm
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: not even sure I agree with that, because I could potentially, actually,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: even though it looks like both pitchers could possibly do well,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: both pitchers might actually not do well here based on
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: some of what I just showed you. So it's a
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: difficult handicap in this game. Man, fifty four percent of
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: tickets and cash on the under. The money, I mean,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: the total did drop from eight to eight juice to
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: the under. I still think the better way to look
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: at this is to play the Pittsburgh side and maybe
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: even include the bullpens, because their bullpen isn't really that
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: much worse, and they're a little bit less used than
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: the Cubs, I guess, but you could go first five
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: innings on it too, if you just want to face
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Boyd and think that maybe he is actually indeed wearing down.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: It's a bad spot for the Cubs though, So in
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: a spot play like that sometimes I will look to
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: go full game on that. So, I mean the spot
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: plus the what the money is doing here kind of
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: clinches it for me as far as where I lean
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: in that game. Curtis, what's up man, Good morning as well,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out, man. So I mean, that's probably
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: too much analysis on that game, But there you go.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati at Saint Louis. We know Cincinnati is still in
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: the wildcard hunt, which I did have the standings up
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: because last couple of weeks of the season you kind
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: of want to bring the standings up just to make
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: sure you know what's going on, especially in the wildcard race. Here.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: I don't even want to look at what is happening
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: with the Red Sox right now. But Cincinnati they're still
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: right there, man. I mean, it's actually crazy than in
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: the wildcard race in the National League. It's arranged exactly
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: by run differential. The entire Wildcard race is by run differential.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Right now, It's all in order. Man, it makes my
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: autism feel really good. And that's not the case in
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: the in the American League, where it's like, what the
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: fuck is Cleveland doing here at minus twenty nine? I
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: told you they're not good. Yeah, and the Red Sox
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: have a ridiculous run differentially. They have the third best
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: in baseball. Yeah. No, actually, in the men of the
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: either fourth best or maybe fifth best, because we're only
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: looking at wild carder. But Milwaukee does have the best,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: I think. But anyway, well, yeah, then you know, Dodger's, Philly,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: and Toronto were kind of all in that mix to
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think Detroit is actually as high as some
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: of those other teams. Anyway, whatever, Cincinnati the ruin the
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Wildcard race. Saint Louis, I mean, they're out of it,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: even though they are kind of here, like they're only
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: four and a half games back. But I've been I've
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: been just saying the whole time, I think they consider
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: themselves to be out of it. I've been saying that
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: about Arizona, and Arizona is right behind the Mets because
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: the Mets have been tanking so bad it's just insane, dude.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: But Saint Louis, I don't think there's a whole lot
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: left in the tank for Saint Louis, to be honest.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: They're off has been miserable for a while now. Cincinnati
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: has a better offense. Saint Louis does generally have the
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: better bullpen of the two, and they're pretty rested, so
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis does have a bullpen edge here. Cincinnati fairly
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: well arrested as well, though, but the worst of the
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: two bullpens. I do think Cincinnati has the better starter
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: on the mound here, and looking at what's happened in
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: the series, by the way they've split the first two games.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: We got Cincinnati right in Game one, that was one
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: of my plays on the show, and then Cincinnati got
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: shut out yesterday, so that might piss off Cincinnati a
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: little bit more as well. And again I think they
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: are having to play with motivation here because they're still
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: in the wildcard race. Brady Singer is pitching for Cincinnati.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Decent season for him, three point nine to four ERA,
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: one point two to four WHIP. He's worse on the
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: road though, even though his home stadium is more hitter friendly.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Whatever it is, he pitches better at home four point
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: nine to ninety er ra on the roads. That's certainly
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: not as good. He's been in pretty good for him recently, though,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: except he did walk four guys in his outing against
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: the Mets this month. He has a nine to five
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: strike up walk ratio that's not exactly good. Doesn't have
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: a nine to five job, does have a two point
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: twenty five ERA this month, though he's gone six innings.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: It both starts faced difficult offense is the Mets, and
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: then the A' is on the road. That's not easy
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: to do, and he pitched pretty well. He's given up
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: three or fewer runs in six straight outings, given up
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: two or fewer and five of the six. He's been
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: good for a while now two point four to one
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: ERA last month two with a thirty nine to nine
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: strike up walk ratio. So I'm gonna say that he's
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: still in pretty good form right now. His numbers against
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis are really good. In fifty five at bats,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: sixteen to three strikeout walk ratio, one to eighty two
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: average allowed four to seventy nine ohps. So Singer does
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: too well against Saint Louis. I think he does have
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: the matchup edge against Andre Polante, who I just don't
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: think is very good for the Cardinals. Five point three
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: four ERA for him one point four to three whip
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly. That's definitely too high. He's on the wrong
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: side of his home road split, so both starting pitchers are.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: He is a five point six to seven home ERA.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: That's not good. He's been okay this month kind of.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: He's given up touring runs and both starts. Did face
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee last time out and went at least five innings
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: in both of them. Actually that's the case in his
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: last three starts, including one against Cincinnati on the road,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: but he walked four guys in that out, which isn't
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: exactly great, held them to touring runs, but they scored
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: some unnurn runs there. This month is a three to
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: five strike up walk ratio and that is bad. Four
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: point nine one ERA is still not really that good.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: He was bad last month as well, eight point six
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: seven e RA really bad. Twenty five to fifteen strike
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio still not good. So overall he's not
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: in good form. His numbers are not bad against Cincinnati,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: though in one hundred and thirty one at bats, twenty
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: nine to fifteen strike a walk ratio is not really good,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: but I mean it's definitely not but two twenty one
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed six thirty oh ps, So his numbers
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: are not They're not really bad against Cincinnati by any means.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is a public side eighty nine percent of tickets.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: They do have ninety four percent of the cash on
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: them as well. Total I mean using the money line
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: in Cincinnati up from ten to minus one fifteen. Uh
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: So it looks like maybe the money is joining the
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: public on that one. On Cincinnati, I wouldn't disagree with it.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: If you want to go with Cincinnati, I would probably
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: go first five innings. You might have to pay a
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: little bit more for that. But I think they're the
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: edge that they have in this game. I think is
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup for the most part, so I
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: don't really trust their bullpen. So that is the way
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: that I look at that game. Don't really don't really
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: have a whole feeling on the total though. I mean,
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: I suppose maybe you could argue towards an under in
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: the game, even full game, because I don't know either Bullpen.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think either bullpen is necessarily terrible. I mean,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is certainly not. Eighty five percent of tickets
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash on the over though
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: total did drop from nine to eight and a half
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: juice to the under. Just fairly significant move off of
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: a key number there. So I think if you do
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: like under, you're fading the public there. And I don't
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: really think that that money percentage is actually correct, So
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: again just putting all the information out there. Baltimore at
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: the White Sox. The White Sox continue to not be
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: able to beat Baltimore, and Baltimore has one of the
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: first two games of the series. Now they won by
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: one run. Yesterday they had won I don't even know
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: at this point, like maybe ten of their last eleven
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: games against the White Sox. I believe they have a
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: series against the Yankees up next, though, which is very
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: annoying for me because as a Red Sox fan, I
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: don't want the Yankees to to have a series against
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: a bad team, although Baltimore will probably show up for it,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: which is why I'm talking about it right now. That
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: starts tomorrow, so after Baltimore is dominated the White Sox
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: like this recently, even though I know yesterday's game was close.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: It is possible they just take the White Sox a
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: little bit lightly in this game and maybe overlook them
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to this Yankee series, Tomark, because Baltimore really
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: doesn't have a whole lot left to play for, and
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: you know, a Yankee series at home is bigger than
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: a series against the White Sox, which you already won.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: And they're gonna probably fly out tonight, I guess, because
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: they're playing in an afternoon game here, So I think
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Baltimore may be a little bit distracted coming into this one.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: The White Socks do have the better of the two bullpens,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: even though both bullpens are not good. Baltimore kind of
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: a thin bullpen, and I don't mean that they're all underweight.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: The White Socks have used more of their bullpen, so
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: maybe that evens the bullpens out a little bit. I mean,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: I don't really like either bullpen obviously, on the surface,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: I actually prefer Baltimore's starting pitcher, but maybe not in
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: this scenario. They have Tyler Wells pitching. He's been pretty
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: good in his career and he's having a good season
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: so far this season, though, I think he's only made
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: a couple of starts two point three to one e
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: ra point six whip. I mean, those numbers are unsustainably low,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: but that's still good. Three point six ERA on the
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: road though, so not as good on the road. But
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: looking at his career stats, they're pretty solid. I mean
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: at one point oh three whip, even though his career
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: ERA is four, one point oh three whip is solid. Man.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: He'll he started pitching in twenty twenty one, so he
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: kind of started his career late because he is in
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: his thirties now and he's coming back, I believe from injury.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: He had had a really injury plague that last basically
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: two seasons, so like last season, he got injured really
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: early and then he didn't come back until late this season.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: But he is pitching well so far this season. Wells
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: is pitching well. Ten to one strike out walk race
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: here on two starts. He's allowed two or fewer and
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: runs and both starts three combined and eleven to two
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: thirds innings only six hits allowed. He did pitch in
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: San Diego, though, which is a pitcher friendly park against
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: a somewhat suspect offense, and then he also pitched really
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: well against Pittsburgh and we know how bad their offense is,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: so maybe take it with a little bit of grain
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: of salt so that I do think Wells is still good,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: and we know the White Sox offense is pretty bad
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: as well, worse than Baltimore's. Is. Only three White Sox
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: hitters have ever seen him before, and they're only two
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: for eighteen off him lifetime, with no extra base hits,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: one strikeout, one walk. Do with that information what you
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: will won eleven batting average two sixty nine ohps against him.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: So it does look like it lines up for Wells
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: to pitch pretty well again. Here he's going up against
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Martine Perez, who it feels like Perez is like a
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: decade older than Wells and he's only three years older them.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Wells has been around for so long or excuse, yeah,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: Perez has been around for so long. Perez has been
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: decent for the White Sox since coming back. He came
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: back from injury not that long ago. He's got a
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: three point two seven ERA one point zero five whip.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Obviously good numbers, although I think they're kind of unsustainable
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: because even though he is a veteran, he tends to
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: pitch better than I ever expect him to. I still
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: don't think he's really that good. I mean, he goes
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: out there, he relies on command, he kind of gets
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: the job done. He's been good at home this year,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: though one point six to seven Homi. Ra did have
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: a bad start at Detroit a couple starts ago, somewhat
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: bounce back at Cleveland after that. So you give up
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: six runs of four innings to Detroit, three earn runs
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: in six and two thirds against Cleveland, so he did
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: bounce back a little bit, but does still have a
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: three to five strike out walk ratio this month over
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: those two starts, and a seven point five to ninety
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: RA so his command hasn't really been that good the era. Granted,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: it is being skewed by that Detroit start, though since
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: coming back in the start of August, he's actually been
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: really good. That Detroit start was the only start where
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: he gave up more than three runs, although he had
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer in all of his starts in August,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: so it does look like he is getting maybe a
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: little bit worse. So, I mean, do we trust Perez
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: in this outing. I'm not sure. Baltimore doesn't have a
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: lot of hitters have seen him. They only have four
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: hitters have ever seen him, which kind of surprises me
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: because he's been around for so long. Twenty two at
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: bats U two average allowed seven to seventeen ops, a
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: little bit high because of a four to four strikeout
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, although three of the walks or Carlson, not
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: Tucker Carlson, Dylan Carlson. So he may be able to
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: just kind of pitch around him. And Mountcastle doesn't have
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: a home run off, but that's his own hit against
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: them in a one for ten clips. So Perez may
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: pitch well here as well against Welles. The money's coming
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: in against Baltimore. They're very public road favorite. I mean
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: the public even though this game is somewhat meaningless, I mean,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: neither team's going anywhere here. The public really wants to
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: fade the White Sox. But the White Socks, I mean,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're quite as bad as they look.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Seventy eight percent of tickets, only seventy one percent of
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: the cash on Baltimore. So I mean, even if we
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: look at the standings, I mean I said I wasn't
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: gonna bring it up again. But the White Socks aren't eliminated.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: They've been eliminated for a while. But they're run differential
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: is actually better than the Orioles, So that is crazy
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: to think about it. You wouldn't expect that because the
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: record is so much worse. But their run differential is
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: actually three runs less bad than Baltimore's is, and they're
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: run differential is similar to Minnesota as it's way better
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: than Anaheims. So I mean, I guess just take all
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: that information in White Sox aren't quite as bad as
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: they look. But anyway, in this game, yeah, I mean,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the money is saying White Sox here because we have
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: a lot of the cash seventy eight percent of the
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: cash on excuse seventy eight percent of tickets excuse me,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: only seventy one percent of the cash on Baltimore. They're
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: a public side, they're a road favorite. They're down for
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty to minus one nineteen. I think they
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: may be taking the White Sox a little bit for
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: granted here and looking ahead to the Yankees. So I
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: do see the arguments for that. I don't disagree with it.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: I would probably slightly lean to the White Sox in
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: this one. I don't know if you'd want to go
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: first five inning on this just because of the bullpen
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: rest scenario, but I mean, neither bullpen is good, so
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: maybe it makes sense to just go full game, and
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: perhaps it's actually better to maybe look for a first
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: five inning under. So I think both starting pitchers do
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: line up to pitch fairly well in this game, and
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: then the bullpens definitely not so much. So I would
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: want to not factor in the bullpens there. But sixty
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: one percent of tickets, only fifty eight percent of the
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: cash on the over total is just sitting at eight
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: juice to the over, so you'd probably get a decent
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: number on the first five innings under, or maybe even
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: four and a half on that. So maybe that's a
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: way to look in that game as well. Fernando, it's up, man,
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: thanks for coming back. You bet that you bet Cleveland
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: and nice I think it got It was a little
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: bit lucky, I think, man, wasn't it. I forget what
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: happened in that game. I might look at it in
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: a second. Well, I don't know, I'm gonna talk about
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Detroit today in a little bit, but I can
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: look now, I guess, but the uh they won seven
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: to five. I think they won late in the game, right, Yeah,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: it was. It was an extra innings game. I also
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: said under in that game and the first like maybe
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I said first five inning under.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: I think first five innings did go under, and then
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: the first nine innings, like, if you went under, you
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: had an under for the game. And then six runs
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: were scored in the tenth inning alone. So this is
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: the thing with the extra innings and the ghost Runners, man, like,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: if you had an under in that game, you should
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: have had a winner. And the fact that it went
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: into extra innings just blew apart everything. And it happened
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: because Detroit scored in the ninth inning to send it
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: to extras. I mean, that's some bullshit there. So it
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: does look like Cleveland. Yeah, they were winning throughout the game,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: but it was like a one run lead for a
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: lot of the way. But yeah, I mean that's good.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: And we did have a Cantillo. I mean, arguably he
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: did outpitch Myz in the game. Even though mis lasted
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit longer, Myz gave up more runs and
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: then part of the handicap was the Cleveland's bullpen is
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: also better. So that's awesome, man, you got the win
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: on that. Glad to give out some some good information
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: there on that one, kind of, I mean, I guess
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: I'm well, I don't know if I'm too mad that
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: I didn't give it out as an actual play on
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: the show. I mean, it was fairly close, but I
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: mean I like that that my thinking was right on it.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: San Francisco at Arizona and surprisingly this series, these teams
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: are both still in it. Like shockingly, Arizona's ahead of
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. They're in this cluster here. I mean, Saint
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Louis isn't even that far back, and Cincinnati's in that
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: mix as well, and then the Mets are not even
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: that far ahead of Arizona. It'd be just insane if
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Arizona made the playoffs. Although they do actually have a
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: pretty good run different so they're a good offense. They're
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: not a good bullpen. San Francisco's bullpen is better, but
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: after yesterday, I think San Francisco's bullpen is somewhat used.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Last couple of days, they've used more relief pitchers than
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Arizona has, so that kind of balances out the bullpens
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit at least, so San Francisco's bullpen edge
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: is at least a little bit less insane than it
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: normally would be. Starting pitching in this one. Well, first
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: of all, Arizona, I mean, it's just crazy what they've
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: been doing. They won four games in a row, They've
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: won both games in this series. I don't think they're
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking ahead though. I mean, this is a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: big divisional series. These teams are neck and neck. I
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: don't really know if the mindset of either team is
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: still like we can make the playoffs here. Probably it is,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: so I don't think Arizona's gonna be looking ahead to
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia here. Even though Arizona were sellers at the trade deadline,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: they're beginning again to play like they think they can
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs even with selling people off. So I
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: mean it's I think both teams will still show up
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: for this game. And I know Arizona plays Philly, the Dodgers,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: and San Diego to close the season, so that doesn't
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: look too good. Although the first two of those series
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: are at home, but that is difficult for Arizona down
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: the stretch. So I'm gonna guess that they're probably not
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: gonna make the playoffs because that is a difficult schedule
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: at the end there. As far as the starting pitching
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: is concerned, justin Verlanders pitching for the Giants. He's got
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: his ERA down below four now, so I mean he's
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: he's doing okay, I mean, especially considering how old he is.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Three point nine to four ERA, one point three to
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: seven whip is not exactly good, though he is worse
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: on the road four point five to three road ERA.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: This is a difficult stadium to pitch in, but he's
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: in fairly good. His last four starts, he's allowed two
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: or fewer on runs, with two shutouts in the mix
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: there too. His team has won three of the four.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rate is obviously not what it once was.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's too old, so he's I think he's
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: trying to rely on more of like his command now
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: and whatever. He does have four walks, which we're all
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: in the last are against the Dodgers this month, but
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: he still held them to wan Earn run. So even
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: though his walk ratios a strike a walk ratio is
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: not very good here this month, he is still pitching
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: all right, So I would say he's in decent form
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: right now against Arizona. His numbers are pretty good, but
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: keep in mind that most of these are before this year.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: So Verlander, he's never been as bad in his career
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: as he has been this year, I would say, so
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: keep that in mind that he's not what he once was.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Sixty one at bats against Arizona, thirteen to four, strike
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio two thirty, average allowed six forty nine
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: oh ps. I mean, maybe he will still come out
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: and pitch decently in this game. That is certainly possible.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: He is going up against Brandon Fott, who does not
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: have good numbers this year. Fart five point five point
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: three to one dra. Hey, the fire jokes are always funny, man,
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: we never grow up. Five point three one d ra
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: for him, one point four whip on the on the season,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: not good numbers. He's a better pitcher than that, though, Man, Like,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know why he's been this bad this season.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: He's actually still been good at home though, three point
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: five y right, And what's really really crazy is that
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: he's allowed three home runs at home in twenty one
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: on the road, and he's pitched fewer innings on the
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: road too. I mean that disparity is probably the most
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: insane thing that I've ever seen. I mean, it's unbelievable.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: And Arizona, they're a pretty home run conduce some ballparks,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: So I just don't even understand it. Do we have
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: multiple Arizona pitchers cheating at home? Is that what's going
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: on here? I don't really know. Fot this month doesn't
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: have a nine to one strike a walk ratio two starts.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good. He had a really good start at
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: home against the Red Sox. My Red Sox held them
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: to one earned runs, seven strikeouts, no walks, and six
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: innings six hits a lot. But it's other three starts
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: surrounding that were all pretty bad. Give up four and
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: runs or more in all of them. Didn't go five
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: innings in any of them, but they were against Milwaukee
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: and the Dodgers in the Minnesota. Minnesota not a good offense.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: But all three of those are on the road. So like,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: looking at his recent home starts, they've all been like
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: pretty good. He's so much better at home. It's crazy.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: It's like he's a different pitcher. I don't know, man, interesting,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: his numbers are not good against the Giants, though, in
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: forty one at bats nine to five, strike a walk
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: ratio three seventeen average one thousand and one ops. Those
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: are not good numbers, so Verlinder does actually have the
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: better specific matchup numbers against these bats. You could kind
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: of argue that Verlander is actually the better form too.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't really want to fade fat at
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: home though, it seems like he's got something going on Rere.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: He pitches way better at home. Arizona is down for
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: minus one ten, minus one oh seven on the money line,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: fifty tickets, seventy three percent of the cash on the Giants.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: The money seems to be coming in on the Giant
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: side as a bit of an underdog there. Yeah, I mean,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: I don't really have feelings on the total at all.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: I think the side is more interesting in that game. Again,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: difficult game to read for me. At least we will
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: see what happens in that game. Atlanta at Washington, Atlanta,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're on the verge of a sweep here
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: where they swept the doubleheader yesterday. So they've won three
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: games in a row in the last two days against Washington,
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: including shutting them out in the night game, which I
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: think was the Chris Sale game for Atlanta. There's he's
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: still doing well. Atlanta. I mean, I think they have
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: an advantage in this game too, though. Washington. I mean,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: they're just playing out the stretch. I mean sure, I
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: guess they're embarrassed right now. They want to try to
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: avoid the sweep, but I'm just not sure they're good
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: enough to do that. I mean, I know they're not
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: that far behind Atlanta and the standings, but Atlanta is
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: the significantly better of the two teams, even though the
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: record is really really bad Atlanta here. I mean, they're
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: only minus thirty in run differentials, so that's not even
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: that bad. Out of all the teams in the National
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: League with negative run differentials, Atlanta's is the least bad,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: which is interesting. So they're better than the record looks
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: at least. Excuse me. Atlanta does have the better bullpen here.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: They didn't use a whole lot of it the last
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: couple days. Washington used almost every one to their relievers. Yesterday,
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: Atlanta saved their bullpen in the double header. Chris Saale
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: must have gone deep into that game. Washington used a
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: ton of their relievers, so Atlanta does have a big
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge in this game, and they should have a
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge to with Hurston Waldrip pitching who really
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: talented rookies having a good season for the most part.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Two point seven to eighty RA one point one seven
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: Whip that's good, really good on the road. One point
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: one to nine Roady RA. He started out along one
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs in his first six starts. They
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: won all of them. He didn't win all of them,
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: he won the first four. Atlanta won all six of them.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: This month, he's been, I guess, a little bit worse
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: than I mean. A nine point three to one ERA
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: is really bad, but it's because he got completely lit
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: up against Houston. Gave up eight earned runs in that game.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: I think I'm out of did I was on that game.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I might have had a loser on that game. I
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: can't remember. I think I might have had an under
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: or something in that game. Maybe I didn't, I don't remember.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: But he got lit up in that game, went four
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: and two thirds. Yeah, eight Aron runs loud. But other
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: than that, he's still allowed two or fewer and runs
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: in every other one of his starts. The Seattle start
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: that ye had before that. He did walk five guys,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: So his walk numbers are a little bit concerned. They've
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: they've gone up so much in the last three out
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: and he's walked two or more and all three nine
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: in the prior to before the starting against Houston which
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: was cut short. So his command is a little bit
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: worrisome right now, nine to seven strike a walk ratio
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: this month. But I still think he's gonna do well
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: against Washington. I think he will bounce back. I mean,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: he's young, he's not overworked right now. Overall, he looks
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: like he does have talent. And Washington only has three
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: hitters have ever faced him before. They're one for five
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: off him, no extra base hits. He only hit is
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: Luis Garcia Junior. I guess, not a relative of Luis Garcia,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: the pitcher on Houston. I think, I don't even know.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: But he doesn't have any strikeouts against Washington, one walk,
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: but he sell him to two hundred average five thirty
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: three up. Yes, but it's such a small sample size.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I think the handicap is basically he's still a good rookie.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Washington's a bad offense, and Landa does have the better
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: offense and I think the offense might struggle against a
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: pitcher they're not that familiar with. Washington. Is Brad Lord pitching,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: and he's not very good. Although I've been caught, as
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: I keep saying, a couple of times I tried to
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: fade him. He pitched better than you would expect. His
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: numbers are not horrible. Four point two to one ERA,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: one point three WHIP. I still don't trust it, though.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: He's bad at home five point one to six homey RA.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: He is a converted reliever, so he was coming out
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen, and then they put him in the
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: starting rotation, and yeah, I know he's been alright, but
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: more recently hasn't been as good, although I know this
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: month he has a three point zero nine ERA in
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: two starts. The last start was against Pittsburgh, so I
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: mean they're the worst offensive baseball, so I guess you know,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not totally impressive there. He did all the Cubs
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: to one and run prior to that, prior to giving
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: up three to Pittsburgh, but he walked four guys against
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: the Cups, so that's not that great. And the prior
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: few starts he allowed four more runs in the prior three,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: although it was against the Mets. The Yankees in Tampa
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Bay probably all better offenses in Atlanta's. His numbers against
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: Atlanta are all over the place, but it's a small
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: sample size. Sixteen at bats seven to one strike a
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is actually really good. But they have a
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: three twelve average that is high, but only six sixty
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: five ops because they have no extra base hits and
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: only that one walk. But still overall, I mean, I
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: would probably lead to Atlanta in this one. I just
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: think the matchup edge is significant in this game for them,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: but they are very public eighty seven percent take its
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: and cash and they're down for minus one fifty minus
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: one forty. So I mean, it's the type of market
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: read where I really would not want to put my
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: money on that because it looks like there is reverse
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: line movements. It looks like some of the money is
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: fading Atlanta there. I don't know if I really personally
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: see it. And let me just see who Atlanta is
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: playing next. I looked at all this earlier today, but
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: let me see, they are playing Detroit next after tomorrow.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: They have tomorrow off and then they played Detroit. I mean,
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: it's an injured League game. I know Detroit's gonna make
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, but I don't know if that matters a
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: whole lot to Atlanta. I don't know if that sets
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: up a huge look at Spot or anything like that.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts on that. Jeffrey, what's up, man?
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: So you're talking about what a moneyline parlay with the Pirates,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: the Reds, and the White Sox to pay plus seven
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: eighty eight if they all win. Man, I mean, that's interesting.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: So I mentioned that I lean to all three of
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: those sides, right, Yeah, those are the first three sides
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: I talked about. I mean it looks tempting to but yeah,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: I mean I don't like parlays, as I pointed out
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: on the show. But I think the oddsmakers they want
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: they want, like the books, they want you to do
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: parlays because you need to get a bunch of independent results.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: You need all of them to hit, and they just
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: don't give you good enough odds. Even though it looks
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: like plus seven eighty eight is really good, you probably
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: should be getting like plus a thousand on it. Probably,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: like the books, don't give you good odds on the
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: parlays because they know the parlay's always look tempting because
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: it's like, oh, I'm gonna pay a little to win,
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: to potentially win a lot, right, But the books know
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: that they're still like screwing you on the parlays, which
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: is where I think they screw you the most. And
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: again because it's independent results, they don't have anything to
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: do with each other, and you need them all to hit.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Like I would much prefer to just play every one
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: of those games individually and then hope you hit two
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: out of three of them and then you'll win money.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: But that's like that's the grinder in me, you know
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: what I mean. Like when you're doing you do this
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: every day, it's about like incremental wins, you know what
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: I mean. It's it's not about like going for like
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: a big pay day every single time. But like I mean, certainly,
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: if you want to play that parlay and you know
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: you could, you're gonna put money on it. You could
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: that you can afford whatever this entertainment value in it too,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say not to do it. Like if
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: your goal is like long term wins, I would say
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: that I would say not to do it. But if
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: you're just gonna throw like you know whatever, like throw
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: twenty bucks on it or whatever and try to try
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: to win some money. I mean, yeah, I mean I would.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't tell you to not do it. I mean,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: have some fun once in a while and maybe maybe
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: a lot hit. But I would say that it's it's
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: more like it's more like playing the lottery, But it's
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: actually probably better than playing the lottery, because the lottery
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: is state run, and I think it's rigged to help
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: the police. I think, like politically connected people always win
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: the lottery, So I think the lottery, the state lotteries
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: are actually completely rigged, whereas at least with these with
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: these parlays, you're at least not facing like, you know,
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: total rigging like that. I don't think. I don't think
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: the games are gonna be totally rigged against you to
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: that extent, especially when you're playing some underdogs like that,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: Like the games might be rigged a little bit in
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: favor of the books, maybe like to try to screw
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: over some of the most public parlays. But I don't
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: even know, man, But I'm going on a tangent there
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at Detroit, Detroit. I mean, we know they're gonna
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs, they might still be fighting for seeding
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs. They haven't played that well recently. They've
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: lost four of the last five games, including losing yesterday.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: But I did point that out. They're returning over from
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: a road trip, and when you return on from a
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: road trip and you have a bad game, a lot
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: of times you do bounce back in the next game.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: It's because it's a distracted spot. The distraction comes into play,
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: you don't play well, and then the next day you're
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: already back at home. Now you've done what you needed
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: to do, your focus, you can play baseball. So it
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: is a better spot, at least for Detroit in this one.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is still in the wildcard race, which is ridiculous
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: for me as a Red Sox fan. I need Cleveland
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: to take a back seat, man, and I think we
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: need Texas to go away as well. Cleveland. I mean,
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: it would be ridiculous if they make the playoffs. I mean,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: they had multiple pitchers get suspended for gambling, they sold
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: off a bunch of guys at the trade deadline, They're
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: run differential is terrible, and they're still in the wildcard race.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, it absolutely zero sense. But they actually might
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: have an advantage in the pitching matchup in this game.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: It all is just insane, dude. I mean, I don't
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: know that I really want to fade Detroit at home,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: although I did recommend it yesterday. Detroit is really good
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: at home though for the most part, but playing out
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: the stretch here, you know, Detroit might be a little
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: bit disinterested because they do know highly likely they're going
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs at this one and though I
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: think they probably might want to, you know, at this
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: point kind of kick Cleveland, like they need to at
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: least get one game in this series to make sure
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: Cleveland isn't isn't gonna come up on them in the division.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Detroit did use more of their relievers yesterday, but Cleveland did.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Actually Cleveland used more of the Detroit did. I think
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: so both bullpens use a lot of relievers. Cleveland actually
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: used every reliever that's pitched over the last few days.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: I'm sure they have more guys in their bullpen than that,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: but they use like all their best bullpen bullpen arms yesterday.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: So Cleveland typically would have a bullpen edge against Detroit,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: but I don't think they have much of one here
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: because of the specific relievers they used yesterday, and Detroit
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: obviously has the better offense. Cleveland's offense is terrible. That's
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: the one. The worst thing about Cleveland is their offense.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Gavin Williams is pitching for Cleveland. He's not bad. Three
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: point one six ERA, really good, one point two to
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: nine whip not as good, so his e RA probably
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: should be a little bit higher, but he's been decent
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: three point three three ERA on the Road's a little
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: bit worse on the road. He's allowed three or four
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: earned runs in his last whatever that is, five starts
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: and ten of his last eleven starts, I think is
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: what that is. Trying to eyeball that really quick, including
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: that start against a that's where he almost threw a
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: complete game, he almost threw a no hitter. He was
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: one out away from a no hitter in that one.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: His walk numbers are still a concern though. Sad that
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: he's you know, he's separated from that from that game
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: where he almost threw the no hitter, and his worst start,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: his only start where you give it more than three
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: earned runs, and that entire span I just mentioned was
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: the start coming off of that near no hitter, so
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: I think he was just in a bad spot after that.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: He threw a ton of pitches, one hundred and twenty
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: six pitches, so you kind of expected him to not
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: do well in the next start just because he'd be
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: hung over from that, and that was the case. But
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: he bounced back after that. So he's pitching fairly well
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: after that, but his walks are still an issue man.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: This month, the two starts looks pretty good, two point
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: eight eight ra. One was at Tampa. It's pretty impressive
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: to pitch well in that ballpark. It's a hitter friend
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: the ballpark. And then the other one was against Kansas City.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: We know they're not a good offense, but he allowed
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: two or few round runs of both of them, when
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: at least six innings of both of them. The problem
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: that I have with it is that he has a
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: nine to six strike out walk ratio over those two starts.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: So his walk issues have kind of come back after
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: he kind of toned it down a little bit. But
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: he might pitch well here. His numbers are actually surprisingly
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: good against Detroit. In seventy career at bats, he has
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: a twenty five to seven strike a walk ratio against him.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: One seventy one average, allowed four nine toy ops, so
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: he's really held Detroit down, so his numbers are good
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: against Detroit. Detroit is Jack Flaherty pitching. I mean, I
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: don't know if we're gonna get a whole lot out
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: of him. Man, he's had a mediocre season at best, really,
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: four point six to niney RA. It's certainly not good.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: His whip isn't too bad one point two eight. He
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: is better at home four point three to one at
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: e RA at home. He's kind of alternated good and
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: bad stars over the last five starts, which would mean
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: he's in line for a bad one here. He did
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: just shut out the Yankees for five innings on the
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: road in his last out, which is somewhat surprising. The
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: outing before that, he was bad against the White Sox,
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: So like, how does he pitch poorly against the White
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Sox and then well against the Yankees. I mean, it's
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: almost like a focus thing, like I'm gonna focus on
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: these better teams, and I'm gonna not have focus against
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: these good teams. I don't know, man, it could be
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: a mental thing. He's got a nine to three strike
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio over that span. Of three point eight
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: six ERA over that span this month. But I mean again,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: he's just kind of a roller coaster. He's on and
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: off for the most part. His numbers are good against
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: Cleveland though, even though Cleveland's on offense that he might
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: actually not focus against because they're not good eighty four
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: at bats against the twenty six to six strike a
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: walk ratio one seventy nine average allowed five point fifty
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: five ops, so Flaherty has done well against them. So
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: when I first started looking at this game, I was thinking,
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: maybe the Cleveland side makes sense again and the money
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: is coming in that way. Detroit s dropped from minus
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: one seventy to minus one thirty five. I don't know
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: if all of that was just actual market activity or
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: if there was like a pitching change that resulted in that,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: because that is a significant change in the line. So
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much to read into that, but
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: we do see the cash just coming in on the
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: Cleveland side. Fifty three percent of tickets are on Detroit,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of the cash though on Cleveland, so the
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: money's coming in towards the Cleveland side. I would slightly
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: still agree with that, but their bullpen is so trashed
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: right now after yesterday that you might want to make
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: it just first five innings and hope that Williams outpitches Flaherty,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: I think it might actually be better to look at
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: a first five under in this one. I mean, I
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: wouldn't really want to deal with the bullpens with how
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: used they are, but you could see both starting pitchers
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: maybe do okay here. I mean, still Cleveland's offense is
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: not intimidating. We have fifty tickets and eighty five percent
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over though, so money looks
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: like it's coming in on the over, even though the
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: total dropped for eight and a half to eight. So
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: I mean that concerns me al though. Of course, with
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: the full game, that's hitting into account of the bullpens
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: as well, whereas if I if you go first five,
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: you're avoiding them hard. R R. What's up, man? I
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out everybody the as at my bust
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: in Red Sox. Man. I still haven't hit any of
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: the plays that I have right Yeah, that's crazy. I
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: have three plays and I haven't gotten to any of
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: those games yet. I think they're all in the evening slate. Yeah,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: because we're in the evening evening slate now, so they're
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: all in the evening Red Sox lost two to one yesterday.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: Just very very disheartening, especially when the Yankees almost blew
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: a ten to one lead in their game Red Sox
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: a one nothing lead for a lot in their game.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Connolly Early, he looks like the real deal man. He's
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: pitched twice against the A's now. As I pointed out yesterday,
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: he pitched against the A's his first two starts of
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: his major league career had to be against the same team,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: and he pitched well in both of them, so the
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: fact that the A's are familiar with them didn't matter,
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: and he still had a ton of strike guys. So
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: I think that guy's the real deal man. I am
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: happy about that. But the Red Sox losing the game.
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: That doesn't make me happy, especially when the Red Sox
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen of these two teams. Like, what
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: the fuck are you doing? Man? The Red Sox bullpen
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: blew the game. The A's didn't use much of their
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: bullpen yesterday either. The Red Sox used more of their,
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: so that kind of it slightly negates the bullpen edge.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox normally would have a pretty decent bullpen
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: edge in this matchup, but they've used a lot of
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: their bullpen arms that kind of takes that advantage away
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit. The A's actually probably have the better
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: offense of the two, al though it's close. Both teams
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: can hit, even though yesterday's game was a big time under.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: I worry about the Red Sox in this game because
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: they are facing Mason Barnett, who is a young rookie,
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: although maybe you have to worry a little bit less.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: And still I don't know why ESPN has him as
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: a un as this position. What is he He's the
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: he's like an ambassador, Like what the fuck is that?
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Un Like? ESPN got to fix their shit man, because
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: they don't even listen as a starting pitcher, so that
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: means you can't see any of his stats like in
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: his game log or batter versus pitcher. Fuck u, ESPN.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: But he's made three starts. He's a rookie. He's made
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: three starts and it hasn't been that great. He's only
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: made it five innings in one of them, which was
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: his one road start. So do with that what you will,
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: I guess, but he really hasn't been that great. He
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: has a thirteen to six strike a walk ratio, which
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: is still too many walks, although they all came in
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: that game against Ani which was the game where he
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: went the furthest But I think really what we look
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: at here is that he gave up a ton of
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: runs against Texas in his debut. That's not great. They're
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: not a good offense, even though I know you could
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: be shaky potentially in your major league debut. He gave
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: a five and run in that one, but he did
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: just face the Red Sox in the A's stadium, and
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: he only went three to two thirds give it three
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: and runs on seven hits, one walk, So he kind
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: of got lucky to even have only allowed three on
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: runs in that game. And the Red Sox actually lost
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: that game. That was the final game of that series,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: the only game the Red Sox lost in that series.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Barnett didn't pitch that well, and now the Red Sox
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: are familiar with them because the Red Sox just saw him,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: and if you're not really that fantastic of a pitcher,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: which I'm not sure that he really is, it negates
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: that unfamiliarity. Edge Man the unfamiliarity didn't even help him
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: against the Red Sox last time. So I think the
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: Red Sox the fact that they have seen him already,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: they're familiar with them. I think he might not do
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: that well in this game. But I'm not sure that
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: I trust Giliedo for the Red Sox either. Lucas Giliedo.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Three point three to one ERA, that's all right, obviously,
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: one point two to five whip is not that great.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: The advanced analytics guys will tell you that Gioledo his
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: ERA should be like a run higher than it is,
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: and I don't disagree with them. I don't think he's
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: as good as numbers look. He's slightly worse at home
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: three point three eighty RA, which is still fine obviously.
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, the good thing is he's not allowing a
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: lot of runs. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: and all but two starts going all the way back
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: through his first start in July, he's allowed three or
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: fewer in all but one of them, which was a
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: bad start at San Diego this month. Two point five
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: three ERA, that all looks good. Eight to four strike
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio is not that good, though kind of mediocre.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: He went five plus innings in both of them, give
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: up two or fewer earned runs in both of them,
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: and get some good lineups Arizona and the Yankees. So
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: I mean he's he's pitching serviceably at the very least.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: But I think he's due for regression. Man, But maybe
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: it won't happen here because the A's aren't familiar with him.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: They only have two hitters I've ever seen him before.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: They're one for four. They only hit as a double
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: from Longoliers. He does have a walk against him as well,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: and Rooker has three strikeouts against him, so it's not
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: a whole lot to go on there at all. But
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: Gilito both well. Gilito is actually the more unfamili your pitcher,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: because Barnett just faced the Red Sox. So very very
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: strange that a guy who's been around for a lot
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: longer actually has the unfamiliarity edge with the money is
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: coming in against the Red Sox. They're down for minus
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: win eighty three to mis one to fifty two on
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: the money line ninety two percent of tickets, only seventy
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: five percent of cash. I do not love that at all.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Uh So the money is fading the Red Sox here.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I would want to deal with that.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, I would probably not disagree with an over though,
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: because I mean, even though Gielito is unfamiliar to the
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: opposing offense, both offenses can hit, and the Red Sox
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: are familiar with Barnett. Now, he doesn't look like he's
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: pitching that well at all. Giulito is not as good
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: as he looks. The totals up from May and a
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: half to nine. I mean, yesterday was solo scoring ninety
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets on the over though, so the
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: public is probably gonna be on the over in this game,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: but one hundred percent of the cash, so I wouldn't
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: disagree with the over. And then the A's bullpen's not
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: very good. The Red Sox used a lot of their
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: bullpen arms yesterday, so an over, you know, kind of
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: makes sense to me in that game, Pete, what's up up? Man?
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: Mason Barnett is from Cobb County. Yeah, I mean a
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: lot of these guys are. But yeah, I mean, I
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: don't know how good he really is though he hasn't
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: bitched that well yet. And I think I looked at
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: his minor league stats and they weren't really that good either. Yeah,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: there he is from Kennesaw, Georgia, but you're right, a
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: lot of these guys come from that that area there,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Toronto at Tampa Bay Toronto, I mean, they're they got
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: a decent lead in the AL East right now. Man
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: five game lead. It's pretty likely they're gonna wind up
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: winning the division now because they've reeled off six wins
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: in a row. But that does mean that maybe they'll
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: take Tampa a little bit more lightly here, although I
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: think they do play them tomorrow to they do. It's
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: a four game series, but Toronto has taking the first
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: two games of the series, both by one run. So
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: Tampa's been hanging in this series. And you know, as
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: I pointed out, Tampa, their run differential is not bad.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: They're one of the only teams that's not in the
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: uh like Wildcard. They're the only team not in the
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: wildcard race with a differential it's positive at all and
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: it's plus forty seven. So the Rays, I mean, they've
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: had a difficult schedule, they've had some bad breaks, but
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: the Rays definitely better than the record looks, so that's
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: definitely something to keep in mind here. I think they
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: have a bullpen edge here in this game too, as
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: Toronto their bullpen's been off and on recently, but they
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: use a lot of their relievers yesterday, so and Tampa
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen generally. Tampa has fewer their relief
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: pitches yesterday, so I think Tampa has a bullpend advantage
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: in this game. Toronto definitely has the better offense, although
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: I know they're without Bishett now, but their offense is
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: still potent, one of the better offenses in all of baseball,
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: so they do have that edge. Kevin Goussman is pitching
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: for Toronto and he's definitely in good form right now.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: He's got a three point four to four ERA one whip.
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: He's been better like as the season has gone on.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: He's getting better like as Toronto needs to win these games.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: He keeps pitching better. His ERA is almost exactly the
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: same both home and away. He's gone seven or more
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: innings in his last three outings now, along one or
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: fewer runs in all of them, and they were against
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: all contending teams Milwaukee Yankees, Houston. Houston is the worst
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: offense of the three, had twenty two strikeouts to two
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: walks over that span. So he's in great form right now.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: He is coming off a complete game shutout against Houston, though,
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: so is it possible that he maybe takes a little
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: bit of a step back here against Tampa. I think
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: it is, even though I'm not really sure I want
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: to fade a pitcher that's pitching this well right now,
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: but three pretty big games in a row, especially the
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: Yankees went in the Houston one fairly big as well.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: He might have a little bit of a setback in
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: this one. Man, And he's pitching at Tampa Bay's ballpark,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: and I don't think he's ever pitched in this park before,
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: at least not in a major league game. And this
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: is they play in Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees spring training stadiums.
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: That could be a little bit difficult to adjust to.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: Although I know, you know, Gusman, He's pitched in the
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: Bronx like he just pitched there, so the stadium is
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: not that much different from that, and he did pitch
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: well there, so maybe it won't be that much of
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: a concern. But he did pitch against Tampa once this year.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: It was at home, and he didn't do well. Five
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: to two thirds, give six earned runs on ten hits,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: three bombs, six strikeouts, no walks was fine, but Tampa
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: did get to him in that game. Overall, against Tampa's
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: numbers are not that good, although it's not a huge sample.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: Most of it was from that start. Thirty seven at
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: bats ten to one strike at walk race is obviously good,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: but three point fifty one average allowed one thousand and
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: ninety eight ohps. So Tampa is a team that can
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: hit Gaussman and Tampa is gonna be going with Ian Seymour,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: who does have good numbers this year three point one
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: six ERA, one point one to three whip. He's worse
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: than this stadium, although again it's a difficult stadium to
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: pitch in. It's it's hit or friendly. Four point nine
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: to seven e RA here in this stadium. He was
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: coming out of the bullpend for a lot of the
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: season and then they moved him into the starting rotation
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: with mixed results. I mean some of the runs he's
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: allowed for he had two starts in a row where
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: he allowed a bunch of underd runs, so it really
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: wasn't his fault. This month, he is a three point
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: eight sixty RRA and two starts he doesn't go too deep,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: like you're probably gonna get it more five innings out
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: of him. He did go five and a third last
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: time against the White Sox. They're a bad lineup though,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: so those two starts this month were both against bad
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: offenses White Sox, Cleveland. His last four starts, which are
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: all pretty good, we're all against weak lineups Cleveland twice
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: actually the White Sox in Washington. He did allow two
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: or fer on runs in all four of those. Racked
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: up a decent amount of strikeouts, although this month ten
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: strikeouts to four walks. His walk rate went up a
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: little bit. But he is facing Toronto. Toronto is a
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: better offense than those teams that he faced prior to this.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: But Toronto's never seen him before, so Seymour it is
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: possibly as an edge here man when he's in the
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: game because he's unfamiliar to Toronto, given that in the situation,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: I might have a slight lean to Tampa Bay in
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: this game, to be honest, man, Toronto is public eighty
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: seven percent of ticket so it looks like the money
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: is also joining the public. There ninety two percent of
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: the cash. Toronto's up for minus one eighteen of minus
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: one twenty five. Not really sure. I agree with An Again,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: I think Tampa does have the bullpen advantage of this game, too,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: so I think you could argue they have a pitching
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: edge all around here. I just am not sure that
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: I want Seymour when he's facing an offense that's better
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: than most that he's faced, and Goussman really just in
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: form right now, so I would worry about it a
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: little bit. But I think I would probably slightly lean
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: to Tampa, San Diego and the Mets. I'm gonna give
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: out a play on that one. Anaheim and Milwaukee. It's
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: possible that Milwaukee doesn't totally pay attention here. They beat
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: Anaheim nine to two yesterday. Milwaukee clinched a playoff spot,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: so they might be feeling a little bit high on
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: themselves here. Although they do have Chicago the Cubs not
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: too far behind them in the division. Milwaukee is still
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: battling for a home field throughout the playoffs right now,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: because the think Philadelphia is like right neck and neck
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: with them, if I'm not mistaken, let me see where's
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia at Philadelphia. I think it is only like one
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: game behind them right a one and a half, So
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee may have that in my jewel. I don't know
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: how really, how much of a mot motivating factor that
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: really is. This series will continue tomorrow as well, I think,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: so It's not like we're on the verge of a
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: sweep scenario, but Milwaukee might be in a situation maybe
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: they don't totally focus. They do have the better bullpen.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, Anaheim's bullpen is not good, and they only
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: have four different pictures of pitched over the last four
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: days or whatever. That's somewhat odd. I'm sure they have
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: more bullpen arms in that. This site here rodal Wires
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: just only tracks who pitched over the last four days.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: But obviously they have more arms than that, they just
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: haven't used them. So they're decently rested. So is Milwaukee.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: Though Milwaukee's probably even the more rested bullpen because they
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: haven't really used the only two relief pitchers over the
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: last two days. So Milwaukee's got a bullpen. And Jose
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Soriano's pitching for Anaheim. He's been kind of all over
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: the place. Man really difficult to predict in various ways.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: Four point one three ERA this year not terrible. One
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: point three to eight whip is not good, though, definitely
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: too high of a whip. He is better on the road.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: Two point sixty six roady ra Again, he's been all
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: over the place man. He had a stretch in August
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: where his team won four starts in a row. He
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: hitched three shoutouts across that span, and then this month
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: he's been really awful. Fifteen point six three ERA, one
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: home start, one road start, eight to eight strike a
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. So he has definitely fallen out of for
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: him again here, not really a guy that I want
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: to back with my money. Although Milwaukee's not familiar with
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: the Milwaukee only as two hitters have ever seen him. Hey,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: one of them is Danny Jansen, former Blue Jay and
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. Red Sox got him at the trade deadline
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: last year from the Blue Jays. He did all right
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: for them. He's a backup catcher, been anyway, Soriano. I
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: mean Milwaukee, their hitter was a row for five off him.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: Just Chancing and Vaughn are the only guys who have
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: seen him. The're zero for five with one strikeout, no walks,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: so Soriano does have an unfamiliarity edge against them, surprising,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: even though he's been around for a while. It is
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: an interleague game. Here, Brandon Woodruff is pitching for Milwaukee.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: He is definitely the better picture. Like if you just
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: look at who's the better picture, it's obviously him, But
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: I mean there are other factors to take into account here. Woodruff,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: he's coming back from injury. He missed all of last year,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: had Tommy John surgery. He came back with a bang,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: and he was really good when he first came back,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't been as good recently. His numbers on
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: the season are still good three point three two ERA
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: point nine to six WHIP obviously good. He's a little
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: bit worse at home three point six seven e RA.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: He did bounce back nicely with a shutout of for
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: six innings last time up, but it was against Pittsburgh
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: so they saw offensively, but still impressive, shutting anybody out
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: with eight strikeouts, no walks, only on line two hits
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: in six innings. He had a rough patch before that,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: man where he didn't do well against the Cubs, Arizona
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: and Toronto. Those are good offenses, so he didn't do
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: well against any of them. Anaheim is not as good
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: of an offense as any of those teams, although They're
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: certainly better than Pittsburgh Against Anaheim. They actually have good
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: numbers against him in twenty five at bats. It's not
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: a huge sample, though, and Kyle Hendrix is in there
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: with one single off of it that's just hilarious. Hendricks
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: will not be bad, I guess he is a starting pitcher.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: But overall, Woodruff does have a seven to one strike
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio against Anaheim. That's pretty good. But three
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: sixty batting average allowed in nine to forty five ops,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: so Anaheim has actually been able to hit him fairly well.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, as ridiculous as it might sound, I think
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: I would maybe consider looking towards Anaheim in the first
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: five innings here and just have Soriano potentially out pitching Woodrowe.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: But I really worry about Soriano's recent form. Man hasn't
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: been good so U but the matchup numbers seem to
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: favor Soriano a little bit. It's a difficult handicap. I mean,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee is a huge favorite up for minus one ninety
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: five to minus one ninety eight, ninety five percent of tickets,
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash. They're also getting a
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: lot of the public action here, money's also coming into
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: the over for what it's worth fifty two percent tickets
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on the over. I could
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: see the argument for that that both starting pitchers may
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: struggle a bit in this game potentially, and then you
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: get Anaheim's bullpen is just not good. So certainly it
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: makes sense to fade them for the most part. But
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: you know, for that one, I'm gonna wait and see.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: You want the Brewers minus one and a half Fernando
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: Brewers minus one and a half on that. I worry
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: about them, man, Look I just pointed out, I mean,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: I worry about their u from a motivational standpoint. Is
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: really that I worry about the most from a motivational
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: standpoint in this one, because it's like, what do they
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: have left to play for it this one? I mean,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: it's not a whole lot. I mean, their vision lead
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: is enough that it's like they're probably not gonna get caught.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: They've clinched playoffs about they're still ahead of Philadelphia by
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: one and a half, although the I mean, I just
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: don't know how much of a motivating factor getting the
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: overall home field throughout the playoffs even really is, So
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: I do worry about that. And with as I said,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: with the run lines at home, what you have to
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: worry about is that the team might not bad in
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: the ninth inning if they're already head so you won't
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: get those extra at bats. Milwaukee, even though they're a
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: good offense, they're worse at home than they are on
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: the road, So somebody keep in mind to they are
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: still the better offense than Anaheims. Thank you for reminding me.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: I did have to point that out as well. Pete,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: you want to buy the over, how much do you
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: have to pay for that? Though? I recommend not buying
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: to an over like I would only buy like off
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: of a like to get on or off of a
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: key number is the only way that I would buy it,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: and I would probably only do it if you're paying
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty or less for it. Like I recommend
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: having a lot of different books. I mean, I don't
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: know where you are exactly, but I recommend having as
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: many books available as possible so you can try to
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: find the best number, which with these MLB totals it
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: definitely matters, so you can find some differences there and
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: like how things are juiced and whatever, so you can
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: use that to find a better number in most cases.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: Sob what's up man? You want to play the Giants today?
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: Can't go against the Dodgers gonna a five game, lose
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: the street getting swept by Arizona. Yeah, I did mention that.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: I talked about that a little while ago. So I mean,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: if you go back, will I don't recommend going back
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: now because I will give out the best bets soon,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: But if you want to go back after I'm done
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: here to talk about that game, I don't necessarily disagree
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: with the Giants in that game. For me, it's a
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: little bit of a difficult handicap though. Oh you're Pete.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: You're talking about like getting a cheaper price on it
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: to buy, So you're talking about getting instead of over nine, uh,
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: instead of excuses, instead of over Wait what are you
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: doing here? You're going over the eight and a half
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: instead of over what like over eight, you're going to
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: plus one twenty eight. Yeah, I mean maybe that makes
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: sense because I mean there's almost no difference between eight
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: and eight and a half. So I mean, if you're
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna get a little like a little bit
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: of extra, like if you're if it's gonna be a
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: little bit cheaper to do that. Maybe that does make sense.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: Eight and a half is kind of in no man's land. Yeah,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: I mean that probably makes sense. Like if it's gonna
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: go over eight, it's highly likely it's gonna go over
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: eight and a half. It's it's not one of the
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: key numbers. The key numbers are all the odd numbers
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: in baseball. Because they've break the tile. Certainly, it's still
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: possible that it lands eight, but it's less likely than
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: when it lands seven or nine. Yankees at Minnesota. The Yankees,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: as I pointed out, did get the win yesterday, and
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: I'm not happy about that. I did say that the
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: Yankees had a starting pitching edge early in the game,
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: which they did, and then their bullpen stinks and almost
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: blew it again. Yankees had a ten to one lead
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: in that game and they held on for its end
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: to nine win. Man, Yeah, I'm not happy about it. Obviously,
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: both these bullpens stink. Minnesota. I mean a lot of
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: usage from their bullpen last couple of days, Yankees a
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: little bit less. So the Yankees actually have the slightly
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: better of these two bullpens, although better is relative. Yankees
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: probably have the better starting pitcher in this one. They
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: do have the better offense. I mean that's not even close.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: Probably the better starting pitcher with Luis Heel, although there
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: are definitely some drawbacks to him. He's got a two
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: point eight three ERA. Obviously, that's good. One point four
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: whip though. I mean, he he's really wild man, Like,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: he's the epitome of a guy who comes out and
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: he's really difficult to hit. He doesn't give up a
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: lot of hits, but he is really wild. He walks
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: a ton of guys, and I still think that's not
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: totally sustainable, Like he's bailing himself out with a lot
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: of strikeouts and whatever, but you can't keep putting that
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: many guys on base man, So I think heals ERA
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: should definitely be higher than it is. He does have
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: a three point six R on the road, so he's
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: not as good on the road. This month, he's been
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: really good as far as his ERA point seventy five
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: ERA six innings in each start, he's only allowed three
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: hits total. He just no hit the Red Sox for
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: six innings and they took him out because he was
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: in the nineties bitch wise, but he walked four guys
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: so again. Even though he has a point seven five
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: YRRA and he's only allowed one on run this month
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: against Toronto and the Red Sox, two big divisional foes.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: He has five strikeouts and eight walks, so his strikeout
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: rate isn't even high right now. I don't know how
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: he's getting away with this, man, I really don't. That
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: walk number is just ridiculously high. He's had four more
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: walks and four of his last five starts. I mean,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: you can't keep doing that and not giving up rouns.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry it can't happen. But he might not do
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: bad in this game because Minnesota's offense isn't good. They
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: only have eight at bats across three different batters against
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: uh Heel. That's what Minnesota has against him. They only
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: have a two to fifty batting average oneenty twenty five
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: oh ps off in one strikeout, two walks. Buxton does
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: have a home run off him, but I'm not really
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: expecting he'll to actually do that badly in this one,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: although his walk numbers they think are gonna catch up
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: to him at some point. He's going up against Taj Bradley,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: whom Minnesota picked up from Tampa the trade deadline, Bradley.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's still young that he could potentially turn
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: this thing around. His season hasn't been that bad. Four
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: point eight eighty r a one point three whopmen. Of course,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: you know his numbers are gonna be a bit skewed
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: from pitching in that Tampa Bay stadium all year. So
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: his home he ra is five point two nine, but
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: that was when he was with Tampa. I mean, it's
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: not as bad as that. With Minnesota. He's made two
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: starts here, He's got five innings in each of them
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: and allow five earn runs total. I mean, that's still
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: not great, but it's not horrible. He's had two good
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: starts and two bad starts basically with Minnesota. So far,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: he has not faced the Yankees. Has joined in Minnesota.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: But of course the Yankees are no stranger to him,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: and he's no stranger to face the Yankees because he
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: was on Tampa. He was in their division. So yes,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: that means the Yankees are very familiar with him. It
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: shouldn't mean they hit him well right well, actually they don't.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: In fifty six at bats, twelve to nine strike a
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: walk ratio that's certainly too many Walks. I mean that's
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: a concern of though four of them are Aaron Judge,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: so he probably pitches around him two thirty two batting
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: average allowed, six sixty ops so bradly. Actually, even though
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are pretty familiar with him, he's pitched fairly
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: well against them in the past, so he might actually
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: not do that badly in this game. So it's an
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: interesting one. Man. I think it's a case where I mean,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: it's almost always a case where you're gonna have to
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: pay too much to get the Yankees, and the Yankees
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: have really plummeted it on the money line down for
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy to minus one forty five. They're very public,
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of tickets, only seventy percent of the
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: cash on them, So the money's coming in against the
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: Yankees here. If you're gonna go with Minnesota, I would
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: say you should do it in the first five innings.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: Just go with Minnesota to maybe potentially keep this game
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: close in the first five innings. You probably go money
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: line with it and hope that it's a tide game.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: So a tide game, we're in Minnesota lead at the
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: end of the first five and then you know, just
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: pray for that. I guess because Minnesota. I don't trust
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's bullpen, even though I know the Yankees bullpen is
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: constantly imploding. But it's like, which one of these bullpens
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the worst one today? I mean, that's
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: kind of what you have to figure out. I don't want,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to deal with it, but maybe there
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: is a chance. I mean, it's a decent price, I
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: guess on Minnesota as the underdog, although you've lost some
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: of that value there because the Yancas were a bigger favorite.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: But if you wanted to do Minnesota, I would probably
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: do it first five innings and that woe and hope
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: that you at least get a push out of it
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: with the the game be tied after the first five
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, the eight and a half versus the
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: eight on that total, Yeah, you want that game get
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: to Ford, right. If the game's four to four, then
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: you're guaranteed to go over the eight because obviously somebody
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: has to score a run to win the game. Yeah.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: That's that's why the odd numbers are key, because when
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: it's tied like that, somebody has to score to win
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: the game. Seattle at Kansas City. I'm gonna give out
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: a play on that one, actually, so I'll wait on that.
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: Texas at Houston, Big Big Series. Houston's won the first
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: two games of the series, man, So Texas, it's looking
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit dire for Texas right now, man, because
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: they're they're they're behind in the wildcard race now that
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: I think they actually might be behind Cleveland, which is
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: really crazy if that's the case. So my bust in
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have to worry about Texas and Cleveland being
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: fairly close to them, so bit of an issue although
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: Cleveland stinks. But the one thing in common with both
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: of those teams is their offense is both stink Cleveland
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: and Texas. But Texas is actually not that bad of
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: a team. They're pitching is legitimately good, and they do
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: have a positive run differential, unlike Cleveland. Texas is gonna
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: show up though for this game, man. I mean, Houston
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: has beaten them the first two games. Texas is not
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: really as bad as they looked in those and they
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: didn't even look bad. They were both pretty close games. Really,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: Houston's still trying to win these games too, I mean,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: even though they're ahead of Texas now by a decent amount.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: They still going to worry about Seattle. Houston's trying to
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: win the divisional though it looks like Houston pretty much
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: is gonna be guaranteed a wildcard spot at least at
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: this point with those wins, but they still are in
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: the wildcard hunt as well, so they still have to
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: worry about that too, because I think the top wildcard
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: spot I think is the Yankees by like a multiple
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: games now, so Houston does have to worry about the
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: wildcard race. So both teams will show up here. Texas
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen. They used a bit of it yesterday.
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: They used four relief pitchers yesterday. Houston used four of
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: theirs too, though, so you still you're gonna give the
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge to Texas, even though Houston they might have
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: gone with a bullpen game yesterday because they did use
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: Colton Gordon for a lot of it, So some of
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: their better relievers are still failable here today. But I
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: think Texas does all have the better bullpen of the two.
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: Texas probably has the advantage of the starting pitching matchup
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: as well. With Jacob de gram pitching, I mean, he's
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: been an elite pitcher throughout his career, and he's still
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: almost elite this year. Even though he's old. Two point
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: eight two ERA point nine two whip really good stuff.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: He's a little bit worse on the road. Three point
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: two eighty RA is still really good, though he's a
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: lot three or fewer earned runs in every start going
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: all the way back to his first start in August.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: He's in good form again right now this month ten
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: to two strike a walk ratio. Can't complain about that
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: facing Houston and the Mets, but it doesn't mean he did.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: Just face Houston, Houston got to him for three earned
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: runs and five and a third inning, So he wasn't
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: great in that start, but he was okay. He got
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: no run support. I think that was the game where
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: Texas's bullpen completely imploded in that game, because I think
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: that was the gamer. I had an under in that
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: game and it was trending under until their bullpen totally
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: blew it. Like Texas is good. Bullpen blew that game.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: Come on, man, blew the undering that game. I mean,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: but he did have an eight to two strike up
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: walk ratios that was still decent. I mean, obviously Houston's
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: still familiar with him anyway, because he's in their division
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: now and he's been around for a while. Houston has
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: eighty five at bats against him. He's done well against
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: a ridiculous twenty six to three strikeout walk ratio against them,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: Although granted this is in the past. De Grom's a
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: little bit less of a strike up pitcher now than
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: he used to be, but he's still going out there
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: and doing it. Man, he's selling them to a two
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: twelve batting average in six seventy four oh ps. I
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: do still expect him to pitch well in this game.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: His numbers are pretty good against Houston. Houston's gonna go
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: with Christian Javier here. Javier probably a bit of the
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: more fresh pitcher because he's coming back from injury. He
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: hasn't pitched that much this year. His numbers aren't great though,
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: four point seven to eighty R, one point two nine whip.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: He is better at home three point four to four
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: right at home so far. It's a pretty small sample
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: size so far, though, but his first four starts he
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: allowed three or four earned runs, and then his last
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: two this month again, although he was facing the Yankees
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: in Toronto, I was gonna say. Granted, he was facing
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: the Yankees in Toronto, he didn't do well in those starts.
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: He gave it four and runs and each of them
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: didn't make it five innings against the Yankees, had four
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: walks compared to ten strikeouts. Strikeouts were good, but the
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: walks not good. Six point nine to seventy RA. This month,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: we're against really good offenses though, so he is stepping
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: down a class to face this Texas offense. So I
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: don't know what we're really gonna get out of Hoavier
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: here because he walks too many guys. He's not really
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: a good form right now. But Texas is a much
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: weaker offense than those last two that he faced, and
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: he does have pretty good numbers against him in seventy
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: seven at bats, twenty five to seven, strike a walk ratio,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: one eighty two batting average, a lot of five forty
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: five ohps. So Javier has done well against them. J C,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out? Uh? So in
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: this game. I mean to me, it is looking like
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: an under in this game, and that is where the
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: money is coming in. Uh looks like that's easier to
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: read than what's going on with the money line here
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: with the side. The totals seems to be a big
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: indicator on the under. It's gone from seven and a
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: half juice to the over to seven and a half
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: juice to the under. Seventy one percent of tickets on
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: the over, sixty nine percent of the cash on the
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: under money is coming in on the under. I would again,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't disagree with that. I would agree with it,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: but I worry a little bit about the state that
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: the bullpends are in. But maybe because Houston didn't use
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: really there better relievers, maybe you're okay going the full
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: game on the under here. I mean the seven is
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: a key number. Of course, if you can get under
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: seven and a half at maybe up to about minus
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: one twenty, maybe that's the way to do it. Instead
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: of going under in the first five, you could do
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: the under first five as well. I do slightly worry
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: about Hoavier though, like his walk potential is still there.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: Texas is very public eighty seven percent of tickets, which
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: it's probably because everybody knows de Gram's name. Everybody knows
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: his name, they might not be cheering him after this thought.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know, although he's definitely really good, but there
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: are more things that taken into account than just the
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher, And sometimes I weigh the starting pitching a
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: little bit too heavily too, But it is a big
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: component percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: coming in. On Texas, they're up for minus one twenty
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: and minus won twenty five. So maybe maybe the pros
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: are somewhat joining the public on that one. Could be
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: split opinions in the game or something like that. I
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: don't know, but I tend to not want to join
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: the public on a road favorite like that when they're
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: so heavily public. So I think again, the better way
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: to look at that game is probably on the under.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: But Texas they have a little bit more motivation right now.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: The situation is more dire for them, but there's pressure
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: on them, and when you have pressure in your road favorite,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: that may not be the greatest thing. Miami at Colorado game,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: nobody's gonna give a shit about it. Both of these
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: teams are out of it. Colorado lost yesterday. They've lost
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: three games in a row. Was a close game, six
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: to five yesterday. I don't know if anybody really cares,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: but Colorado is the worst of the two offenses, although
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: they're a little they are better offensively at home. Though
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: Colorado is the worst bullpen, although their bullpen is more
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: rested slightly. The both bullpens are actually pretty rested here.
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: To me, I think the starting pitching matchup is in
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: favor of Miami. Here they have Ryan Weathers pitching, and
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: I'd forgotten about him, like I used to make fun
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: of him on my show, because early on in his
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: career he just was really struggling. He wasn't that good.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: Maybe I shouldn't have made fun of him because he
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: did have some potential there and it's starting to be realized.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: He's had a good season. The problem is he got
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: hurt this season, so he hasn't been able to pitch
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: that much. But his numbers when he has been out
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: there healthy or pretty good this year, they're really good. Actually,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: two point seven to three ERA, one point zero four whip.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: He's a little bit better on the road two point
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: six three er on the road. He got injured in June,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: didn't come back. He I guess started the season late too.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: He started in May. Didn't allow more than feign runs
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: in any of his starts. Although his worst two starts
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: were both in June. His last two starts only made
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: five starts, and then he got injured when on the DL.
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: His start coming back was good, although it wasn't against Washington,
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: a week offense and he is having a pitching course
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: field here, but the Rockies are a week offense as well.
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: But it's a good sign that he came back went five.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: He was really efficient. He only threw sixty eight pitches,
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: so he didn't have to wear himself out at all.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: They kind of are easing him back in and he
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: still was able to go five innings against Washington, four strikeouts,
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: no walks. I mean, if you're not walking any buddy,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: you're gonna tend to be more efficient because you're not
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: having to waste more pitches and you're not putting as
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: many guys on base. And he gave it five hits
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: in the game against Colorado. They don't have a big
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: sample size against the twelve at bats, only one extra
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: RaSE hit from Tyler Freeman, two strikeouts, no walks. That's
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: a double by the way from Freeman. Two fifty batting average,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: five eighty three ops, so he has good numbers in
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: a limited sample size against Colorado. I do expect he'll
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: do well here. Colorado's got mckaid brown pitching. He's a
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: young pitcher for Colorado, one of their prospects. But it
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: seems like all these young guys they bring it to
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: the rotation, they just all struggle. Man. It's like they
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: can't pitch a Gowards field. It's just a bad environment.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: Brown hasn't been good, even though he is a looming
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: mound presence and he could be good, but I mean, Colorado,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: it was an environment where you just don't even know
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: how good these pitchers are because they just don't pitch well.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: There nine point eight eighty r for him two point
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: one to whip him in really bad, fourteen point two
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: ninety r a at home again, not helping his case
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: that he's been pitching in this stadium really really bad.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: He's only made four starts so far, but again it's
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: it's not been good. Hasn't got five innings in any
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: of them. He's allowed well, multiple runs in any of
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: the most last starting against San Diego was not that bad.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: It was at San Diego, though very pitcher friendly park.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: He at least held them to tour and runs and
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: the team was at least in the game. But I'm
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: not sure we're gonna get a whole lot out of him.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: But Miami's not that talented of an offense, and they've
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: never seen him before, of course since he is a rookie,
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: but that hasn't really helped him out so far. So Weathers,
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, I do think is the more trustworthy pitcher.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: But if you like Miami, it's they're very public, I
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: mean the public, even though I don't think they're really
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: coming in on this game. For the most part, I
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna be a heavily bet game. Nobody
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: gives a shit about this game. But it was like
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: the public kuar betting it. They just want to fade
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: Colorado because they suck, and probably they see Weathers as
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: the way better era. But Weathers, I mean, he is
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: the better pitcher right now in the more trustworthy ninety
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets, ninety seven percent of the
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: cash on Miami, very public. They've gone down for minus
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: one fifty five to minus one fifty one on the
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: money line, So maybe some slight movement against Weathers and
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: the against Miami, I should say, But I mean, I
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: would lean to the Miami side. I think just uh,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: I think they do have the edge all around in
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: this game, even though it does look against the public side,
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: you're probably laying a bit too much of a price
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: on it. The money's coming in on the under. That's
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: like the bigger indicator in the markets is the under
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: here total down for ten and a half to ten
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: ten and a half juice to the over to ten
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: and a half, sixty five percent of tickets on the
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: over ninety two percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: Don't really know if I agree with that necessarily either.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is possible that Brown does pitch a
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: little bit better against a weaker offense here, and weather's
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: my duell. I probably wouldn't want anything to with the bullpen,
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: So if you wanted to go under, probably would do
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: it first five innings. But I would definitely worry about
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: that in course field, especially with Brown pitching, I definitely
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: worry about it, so I would probably not do that.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: Let's get to the best bets, man. The last game
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: is as you see in one of the other best bets,
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: I'm on a couple of the biggest games of the day.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: Let's do it, man. First game up we're going back.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: These are all in the evening. We're gonna have two
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: sides and one first five total. The first side, we're
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the Mets. I know the Mets were
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: the anti public side yesterday, and I didn't really like
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: the idea of fading Michael King. But King was awful
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: in the game yesterday. And the Mets, I think they're
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: the more motivated side right now. And I don't like
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: the idea of putting my money on David Peterson usually either,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna do it here with the Mets. Man.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: First of all, when you look at this game, the
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: Mets are just really good at home forty seven and
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: twenty nine at home. San Diego is terrible on the
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: road thirty five and forty one away from home. So
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: these two teams have huge home road dichotomies. Man. I
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: know San Diego having to travel out to New York
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: like that first game is going to be a little
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: bit more difficult potentially having to travel from San Diego.
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: But I think the Mets they're the more desperate team.
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: I know San Diego would like to overtake the Dodgers
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: in the division, but there's no way San Diego misses
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. At this point, they're pretty much guaranteed when
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: the wildcard spots. Already the Mets are on the verge
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: of losing the wildcards, so the Mets need to play
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: with the urgency here. This price is not high. I mean,
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: you're just asking them to win the game. And on
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: the surface, it looks like San Diego has the better
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: picture of the two, and even I would say that
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: they do. But again, there's more to it than just
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: that sixty six percent of tickets around San Diego sixty
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash coming into the Mets. So
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: we are going to join what I think is a
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: pros versus josn Era. It looks like the public expects
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: San Diego to bounce back here because they have the
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: better record over the Mets, and the Mets have just
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: been ass recently and the professional money seems to be
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: coming in on the side of the Mets. They're up
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: for ten to minus one to eighteen. Will go full
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: game on this, even though I know San Diego's bull
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: is the better bullpen. They use a few guys yesterday. Yes,
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is better. The Mets bullpen isn't that bad though,
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: and the Mets didn't use any relief pitcher over the
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: last two days because they actually used Sean Manaia out
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: of a bullpen yesterday, So the Mets didn't use any
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: of their actual relievers. Their bullpen is extremely rested coming
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: into this one, so I think that is helpful. I mean,
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: their bullpen overall is not that much worse. They're in
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: the mid tier here. Bullpen area a little bit overfore.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: I know, San Diego's elite, I get it, they have
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: the number one bullpen, but we're still gonna include the
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: bullpens in this one. I think the overall scenario just
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: works out well as well. The Mets have the better offense.
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: That is the big advantage they have in this game.
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: They have a way better offense in San Diego. The
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: other thing that I like about this is that the
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: Mets they broke that last streak and now they have
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: some winning momentum. Man. So I told you this, sometimes
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: when you break along lost streek, you go on a
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: little bit of a win streak. After that you have
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: some momentum, and that may be the case here with
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: the Mets here, man, I mean, they've had some lost
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: streaks recently. The last last streak they broke, they did
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: win multiple games in a row. Though, I know we're
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: asking to win a third game in a row here now,
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: but baseball streaking, so we are gonna jump on that
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: streak there as well. I know we're fading Nick Pavetta here. Whoops,
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: I didn't want to go to where to watch well, yeah,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: I mean it is helpful to figure out where to
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: watch it. Where to watch baseball though, the answer is
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: basically nowhere. As you can see here, there is like
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: a There are a few games, a couple of games
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: on MLB Network, Cleveland, Detroit on Fox Sports, Yankees, Minnesota
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: on Prime for whatever reason, Amazon Philadelphia and LA and Chicago,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and San Francisco, Arizona roll on MLB Network, and
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: for some reason, San Diego and the Mets don't get
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: like a top billing here though this is one of
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: the bigger games. But yes, we're gonna fade Nick Pavetta here, eve.
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: Though I know his numbers are really good this year
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: two point seven to three, e RA point nine to five, whip.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: I get it. He's really good. He is way better
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: at home though, really good in that San Diego Ballpark
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: on the road, he's at least more beatable three point
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: four to one roady RA, which I know is still good.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: I know he's in good form right now. He's allowed
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: two or four own runs in six straight outings. I
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: get it. He's coming off shutting out Cincinnati thirteen to
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk raceio this month. I know, one
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: point three eighty RA this month. His other start was
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: in course Field. That's all good stuff. Sure, I get it.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: He did d well against the Dodgers not too long ago.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: That was one of the better offenses that he faced recently,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: but for the most part he's been facing somewhat weaker offenses.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: He did face the Red Sox in there, when the
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: Red Sox got to him for five earned runs, so
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: you know there was at least one offense in there
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: that did get to him. He's facing the Mets here,
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: and the Mets have really good numbers against him, so
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: that was kind of what sold me, what kind of
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: clinched it for me, It was the matchup numbers here.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: He doesn't do well against the Mets in eighty eight
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: career of bats, twenty two to twelve strike out walk
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: race year. That's ugly. It's a lot of walks three
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: eighteen batting average nine to ninety seven ops. They've hit
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: him for some power six home runs and they're Mullens
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: two of them runs and ten for thirty one off
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: him with the most at bats against him. So these
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: net hitters do pretty well against Paveta, So his numbers
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: are not good there, and we're looking at David Peterson.
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: I know, I don't really like David Peterson. I mean
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: nothing personal, but I just don't think he's that good
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: three point seven to seven ERA. His ERRA always looks
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: good and he's never as good as that, and the
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: advanced analytics guys are always over this, like Peterson is
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: not this good, and he keeps putting up like a
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: decent R. And I think it's just because he has
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: a really extreme ground ball rate for the most part,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: so he gets out of all these jams by inducing
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: double plays and shit, because his whip is not that
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: is not very good one point three to two. He
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: doesn't have significant home roads, but he's pretty much the
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: same home and away. He is in the lesser form
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: than Paveta, which worries me a little bit. His last
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: three starts haven't been that great. Allowing three or more
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: in runs and all three of them, but the two
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: starts this month he faced Philadelphia in Cincinnati. I mean
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia on the road, difficult to face them. But he
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: wasn't as bad as maybe it looked with all those
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: runs that he gave up, because he did have a
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: twelve to two strike out walk ratio over that span.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: So even though he got hit a little bit hard
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: is usually he walks too many guys in his walk
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: rate actually went down a little bit this month, so
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: maybe the six point this month is a little bit
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: less worrisome. But then the clincher here is again the
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers. He actually does well against San Diego and
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: forty five at bats. I know, five to six strike
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: up walk ratio is terrible. I mean it's David Peters
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: and yeah, more walks to strike ups is really bad,
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: but he's only allowed two extra mays hits to them.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: He's on to two twenty two batting average and six
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: twenty five ohps. So we're gonna roll with it. We're
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: gonna roll with the professional betters in this one. We'll
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: go with the team that has more urgency. I think
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: they have the better of the starting pitching matchup that
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: can at least balance out like the recent form and
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: the fact that Paveta is generally the better of these
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: two pitchers. We'll go with the Mets, also having them
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: arrested bullpend here and the way better offense. We'll go
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: with the Mets on the money line around minus one eighteen. There,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: Good morning to everybody, Yes, sir. Next up, we're gonna
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: go with the Kansas City Royals money line, which is
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: up a little bit. You have to pay a little
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: bit more for this minus one twenty. You can get
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: it if you go first five innings. It's more expensive,
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: although I would argue that maybe first five innings also
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: makes sense Hereius, I think part of this is gonna
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: be the starting pitching. A big part of this is
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching magic. The one thing that I worry about,
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: because both of these bullpens are similar. Kansas City's is
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: actually the better bullpend but I worry just with their usage.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: But if you look at it, like they used Daniel
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: Lynch yesterday, he's like a long relief man. So some
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: of their better relievers are at least still available here,
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: So maybe you don't have to worry too much about
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: that Seattle. Seattle does do less well on the road though, Man,
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: even though I know this is still a pitcher friendly
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: park in Kansas City. Yes, Seattle's got a good bullpen. Yes,
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: they also use the long relief man yesterday as well
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: with handcock. You know, their bullpen's in a little bit
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: better rest shape than Kansas City. Both bullpens are fairly good, though,
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: so I think we'll consider the bullpens to be a
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: little bit of a wash here in my opinion. Again, Seattle,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: they're pitching struggles a little bit more on the road, man, Seattle,
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: they're not as good on the road. They have a
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: very picture friendly park at home, though again I know
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: this is a pitcher friendly park here, and the Royals
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: don't have a good offense, so obviously Seattle's offense is
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: really good. But the public is only gonna play Seattle here. Man,
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: Seattle's been on fire, and I know we're fading. We're
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: jumping right in front of a train here because Seattle's
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: won so many games in a row. But and yes,
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: I know they're still playing because they're trying to win
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: their division. But at this point, I think at worse,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: Seattle's gonna wind up being a wild card here, even
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: though I know they're still trying to ensure that they
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: get that. Kansas City's on the Virgin elimination here, man,
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: and they're at home. They got a win, and I
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: think they might actually get a win here. They got
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: annihilated last night. But remember it was a return home
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: spot from a Cleveland Philadelphia. You know, I always talk
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: about this, when you return home and you're not really
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: a terrific team, a lot of times you tend to
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: have a bad situation there. It gets a little bit distracting.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: They got blasted twelve to five yesterday, and when that happens,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: you tend to get your home affairs in order. You
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: come out and you better in the next game. So
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: it's a decent spot in my opinion for all the
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: Royals here because of that Seattle. I know they have momentum.
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: I know they've won a ton of games in a row,
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: ten games in a row. But you remember I'm the
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: streak buster, man, because you remember I faded Milwaukee. I
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: think it was the only time I faded in Milwaukee
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: during that huge win streak they had, and I nailed
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: it right on the nose. We got it with Cincinnati.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: Even those close and extra innings in Cincinnati continued to
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: be the sweep Avoids, although since then they have gotten swept.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: But we're gonna try to bust another streak here, man,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: That's what I do. I did it in hockey with
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: the Winnipeg Jets when they had a long wind streak too,
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: So let's do it again here. Man. There's a reason
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: why Kansas City's favored by a little bit here. So
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: we're reading in the market a little bit here. We're
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: gonna go with it. I think it's a good spot
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: for this, even though I know Seattle they traveled out
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: to Kansas City, they got the first win. I know
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: it's kind of similar to what San Diego just did.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: But again, as I was pointing out, Seattle is not
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: that good on the road. They're below five hundred on
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: the road, thirty five and forty one. Kansas City decent
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: at home forty and thirty six, so they're at least
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit better at home than on the road.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: But Seattle, yeah, they just don't do as well on
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: the road. Bryce Miller is pitching for Seattle. I think
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: he is one of their fadable pitchers. Even though his
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: career numbers will tell you that he's better than he looks,
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: but he just has not really turned the corner this
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: year yet. So I think he is definitely fatable, and
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: even when he is himself, he still isn't as good
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: on the road as he is at home, which is
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: basically the case with every Seattle pitcher. But this year
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: he's trying to come back from injury. I know he
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: is better than this or has been in the past,
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: but he's really struggling. Five point five to ninety ra
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: one point three to seven whip almost the same era
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: home and away. It doesn't really matter. Surprisingly, he hasn't
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: really been very good man. He's going He went five
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: to two thirds or fewer innings in all but one
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: of his starts. Is coming back from injury, which happened
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: he came back in mid August, and he was just
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: mediocre through the whole thing. He allowed four more runs
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: in three of the five starts, allowed two each in
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: the other two. But he also only the only offense
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: that he faced that was really intimidating was Philadelphia. I
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: know Kansas City is not intimidating at all, but yeah,
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia was like the one good offense he faced, he
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: didn't really do well there, didn't do well against San
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: Diego either. They're like an okay offense. He faced Cleveland, Atlanta, Anaheim.
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, Cleveland is bad offensively, Atlanta not great at all. Ana,
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty mediocre, So take from that what you will.
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: I know Kansas City is not a good offense, but
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: his numbers are not terrific, at least against Kansas City.
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: They're okay in thirty six of bats nine to four
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is not that good. Two seventy
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: eight batting average allowed, six twenty eight ops. So I
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: know he doesn't get rocked or anything by Kansas City. Obviously,
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: Kansas City very weak offensively, but that's part of the
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: reason why the public is just all over Seattle, as
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: I already pointed out. But I think they should be
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: able to get to Miller a little bit here. And
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: remember a lot of those numbers were when Miller was
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 1: pitching better, too, and he's not really pitching that well
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: right now. But the other part of the reason why
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: I like this is Cole Reagan's is coming back for
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. Man, you know, I like this. I consider
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: him to be an experienced pitcher at this point. He's
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: got a few years experience now and he's coming back
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: from the injured list. And I like to point this out, man,
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: when a picture that isn't like a ridiculously young guy,
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: you know, like, isn't a totally an experienced guy. And
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think he is. I consider him to be
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: kind of approaching veteran territory at least the fact that
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: he's gone like three four years in the majors. Now,
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: when these guys like this come back from injury, I
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: like to go on the man because I think they're
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: ready to go. They're pumped up, especially they're trying to
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: help their team maybe even get to the playoffs here.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: And Reagan's was basically the Royals Ace if you remember,
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: like people may have forgotten about him, he was the
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: best pitcher in their staff, like last year and whatever,
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: he was really good. So his numbers, the fact that
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: they're not that good this year, his numbers are deceiving.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: Five point one eighty RRA. I know that looks bad.
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: One point two to nine whip is not great, but
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: it does indicate that his RA should be better. And
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: if you look at his career numbers, they're way better
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: than that. A three point six ninety RRA one point
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: two whip overall, and that includes this year. His whip
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: was below one point two in the last three seasons.
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: So Reagan, since he's been on Kansas City, he's been
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: really good. So I think he's ready to come back.
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: He's gonna be pumped. I think the team is gonna
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 1: be pumped to have their ace back. So I think
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: it's a good situation here man to have Reagan's coming
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: out there. And I looked at what he did in
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: Triple A because you know, sometimes I don't do that
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 1: with these guys that are coming back because they just
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: kind of expect them to be ready because they have
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 1: major league experience, Like an ACE like this, I mean,
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: you know, like this guy should be ready. But I
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: just checked to make sure. And Triple A he pretty
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: much dominated. He didn't pitch much, but he had like
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: a ridiculously high strikeout rate when he was in Triple
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: A in his rehab, Like, it was so many strikeouts
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: that I did like a double take on it. It was
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 1: I think he had like two per inning almost basically.
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: It was a small sample size though, but and he
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 1: had like only like one or two walks maybe I
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: think in his ra was I think like in the
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: ones and he had a point five whip. So I'm like,
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: all right, this guy's ready to come back. So we're
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: gonna go with Reagan's here in this one man and
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: Reagan's up against Seattle. Here, we can look at that
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: real quick. Let's take a look here. I know he's
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: he did struggle in his last few audings before he
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: got hurt, but maybe there was something not right with him,
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: which is why he went on the DL. I know
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: his numbers against Seattle are actually worse than Millers are
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: against Kansas City. I get it. But if you look
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: into this a little bit further, it's not as bad
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: as it looks. It's a small sample size, twenty four
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: at bats. I know the two ninety two average seven
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: to fifty obs doesn't look that great. He's allowed on
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: home run to Crawford, but his command has been there,
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: eight strikeouts, no walks, and this is a difficult offensive face.
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: So I think the starting pitching matchup, I don't think
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 1: you can read that much into those matchup numbers. We're
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: gonna join again. We're gonna fade the Joe's in this one.
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 1: Sixty five percent of the tickets are on Seattle. I'm
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: trying to get my bearings here. Man. We're doing a
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: lot of market reading today, but I am agreeing with this.
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: Kansas City's up for minus one of seven to minus
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: one nineteen now, so we got more reverse live movement here.
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: The line is moved against where the public is because
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: they're gonna come in on the offense. Cal Raleigh, I
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: think just broke like the home run record for Seattle,
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: We're gonna fade it. Kansas City up from just one
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: of seven mins one nineteen, already said that seventy six
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Kansasity. We're gonna go with it. Man. Again,
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: part of it is I think the the starting pitcher,
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: like the Ace returning factor here. Yeah, not Ace that
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: we're familiar with on Twitter. That wouldn't be good. I
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 1: don't want to see any more of vent. But we're
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: gonna go with Cole Reagan's in this one. Man, We'll
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: go with Kansas City on the money line. If you
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: want to go first five innings, you could do that.
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: You have to pay a little bit more of a
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: price on that too. And I still think the bullpens
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: are enough of a wash and they're good enough bullpens,
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: and I think we could go full game on it.
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: And then the last one. I am gonna go under
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings in this one because I
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: hate both bullpens in Philadelphia and the Dodgers. I think
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup sets this thing up to be
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: an under man. So this is a high scoring series.
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: Both games have gone over. We had eleven runs in
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: the first game, we had fifteen last night. And everybody
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: knows both these teams can hit. So who in their
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: right mind is gonna want Is gonna want an under
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: of any kind in this game? Well that would be
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: me in this one for Philadelphia the Dodgers. I mean,
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: we know these are two of the top offenses in baseball.
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: It seems pretty risky to go with an under here.
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: The public's only gonna want to go with an over,
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: especially if they've been betting the over in this series,
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: and they've been cashing easily. We got seventy nine percent
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over, but seventy two percent of
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under, So the money's coming in
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: on the under. The total is just a little bit
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: less juiced on the over seven and a half, So
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: if you want the full game, you're still getting kind
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: of the better of the seven and a half. But
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: I don't trust the bullpens, so we're gonna go first five.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: I don't like either bullpen. The Dodgers used a lot
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen arms yesterday too. I don't like that.
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: Philly used less of theirs, fewer theirs, but they're the
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: worst of the two bullpens. The Dodgers. I understand they
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: score a lot at home. Philly doesn't score as much
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: on the road, I believe, so the Dodgers have a
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: little bit of an offensive edge here. Both offenses are good.
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: I get it. We're going with an under. We're fading
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: two good offenses. But what you need here is two
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: starters that are going to be able to hold the
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: offenses down. And I think that's what we can get here.
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: Hazus Lozardos pictally for filling. I know he's been a
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: roller coaster this season, but he's been better again recently,
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: and I think he can hold down the Dodgers. Believe
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: it or not. He's got a four point zero three
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: ERA one point two six whip decent numbers. He's actually
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 1: better on the road three point five to five ROADRA,
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: so we're getting the better road split from Luzardo here.
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: He's also been racking up a lot of strikeouts recently,
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: Man so eighteen strikeouts over his last two starts this month,
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: got wins in both of them, allowed four or fewer
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: in runs of both of them. But the start where
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: he allowed four runs he went eight innings against the Mets,
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 1: so that wasn't that bad at all, and it was
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: a good offense too. Three point eight six ERA overall
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 1: this month, going back through last month, he actually has
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: allowed three or fewer earned runs against every team who
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: isn't the Mets, going all the way back through his
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: last start of July. Though, granted the Mets were the
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: only really good offense he faced over that Smanna that
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 1: he did face Seattle. They're pretty solid. Yes, obviously the
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 1: Dodgers are a very solid offense. I understand that. But
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: I think he'll do okay enough here. Man His mbers
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: are pretty good against the Dodgers and sixty eight career
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: at bats, twenty two to four strike a walk ratio
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: two twenty one batting average allowed in six seventy six
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: oh ps, so he has not been bad at all,
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: especially considering how good the Dodgers are offensively Lozardo. This
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: is one of the teams that he does do well against,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: and he's going up against Blake snow who. You know,
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty much an elite pitcher when he's been
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: at the top of his game. I mean, I know
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: he always walks too many guys, but he strikes out
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: a ton. He usually really really limits the damage. Two
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: point seven to ninety RA this season. Obviously, that's good.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 1: One point three to nine whip. I get it too high.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: He walks too many guys, but he has the meter
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 1: of the home road spits too. He's really good at
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: home one point four to four ERA. He's also better
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: at night this year, for whatever that's art. They don't
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: usually look at the Dan night Switz two point three
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: to five night e RA. He had double digit strikeouts
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: in his last outing too. He shut out Colorado for
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: six innings. I know they're a terrible offense, but he's
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: pretty much in form right now. Seventeen to five strike
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: at walk right sure this month. I know you gave
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: up five and runs against Pittsburgh. I guess a little
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: bit alarming, but maybe he just wasn't focused. And man,
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know how to explain that one, really,
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: But he bounced back nicely with that, starting against Colorado,
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: so I'm not ready to say he's in bad form
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: or anything. Four point zero nine ERA this month, throwing
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: them on the of August. He didn't allow any more than
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: three and runs in any outing. Actually, that one against
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is the only time he's done it all seasons,
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 1: so it looks like it was more of an outliar.
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: And he's certainly fresh because he was injured for so much.
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: We don't have to worry about him wearing down or
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: anything like that, even though I don't think you have
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: to worry anyway because he's a veteran, but he missed
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: like four months, so he definitely has not been worn
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: out this season. Up against phil he has good numbers
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: against them, even though they were good offenses. Seventy three
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: at bats, twenty nine to twelve strike out walk ratio.
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: That's too many walks. I mean, that's definitely snell like.
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 1: But he's telling them to a one fifty one batting average,
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: so again that's Snell like, they have not been able
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: to hit him very well five seventy two ops. So
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go with both pitchers to pitch well early
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: on in the game. You can find the under four
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: right now at a pretty solid price. That's we're gonna
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: go with Philly and Dodgers first five under four. That's
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: gonna do it, man. Those are the plays long video. Again.
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: We got the Mets money line, Royals money line, and
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: under in the first five innings, under the four in
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: Dodgers Phillies, Phillies, Dodgers. Whatever, guys, I appreciate it. Thanks
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: for hanging out. Learn a tone on Twitter, learn to
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: tone on Instagram. I'll get out the videos. These are
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: all evening games, so I'll give them out in a
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: little while. Hopefully the lines are still out there. But
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: that's why it pays to watch the show. At least
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: hopefully it does in the long term. I know we're
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: struggling right now, but we're off at two and oh
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: day here. We're gonna back and then we're gonna have
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 1: football starting again tomorrow. So we got the NFL Thursday
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: night game, which is a really uninteresting one though, which
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about tomorrow. We got there's one college football
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: game tomorrow too, I think, and it's not a very
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: interesting one either. Uh yes, sir, you have a good
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: day as well. Curtis, Thanks Curtis, Pete, JC SOB, a
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: bunch of guys in the chat today, hard r R, Jeffrey, Fernando, Fernando,
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: thanks everybody for hanging out again. Like, subscribe to the
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: channel here on YouTube better off dead. Let's get us
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: up to a monetization, man, and then listen on a
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 1: YouTube and spot or excuse me, on an Apple and Spotify.
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: That helps me out just by listening over there, and
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: you can give me a review doesn't cost you anything.
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: It is monetized over there, and I want to get
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: some actual money rolling in on that. It takes a
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: lot of numbers on the numbers are very low on
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: there right now. But we're on Apple and Spotify and
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: then covered in you because my Yuke YouTube channel. You
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: could check that out too. I want to get those
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: numbers up too. I might start doing Yuke live streams
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: h where I just stick around and maybe take requests
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: and it's just gonna be like a fun hangout similar
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: to what I asked. But does I gotta start doing that.
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: I want to because sometimes I'll just sit here and
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: I do it anyway because I do it for fun,
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: So why not like do it with people and put
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: it on camera, you know what I mean. And then
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of learning the songs at the same time,
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: so it kind of makes sense to do it. Maybe
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: I'll start doing it once a week or something and
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash and learn to Toad. Maybe I'll
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: do some Patreon streams once people get into it and
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: they like it, maybe I'll start doing some Patreon once
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: if they like it. Had no guarantees, but yeah, Patreon
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: dot com, slash, learn to toad right now, there's some
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: bonus yute content there at the higher levels. I gotta
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: check to see if anybody has actually requested anything, but yeah,
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: check that out. And hopefully I'm gonna get subscribers on
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: Twitter as soon as well, because they rejected me at first.
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: Then it was erroring out and now I got an
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 1: affiliate on Twitter and maybe it'll help me get get subscribers.
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: I gotta figure it out, man, but gotta figure out life,
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: to be honest. But peace out for now, guys, have
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: a good one and let's get some wins in baseball today.
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: Happy wins Hey,