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The Favorites - NFL Fantasy Update · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. There's
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  Speaker 1: nine one eight hundred five to two four seven zero
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  Speaker 1: zero in Wyoming, or visit one eight hundred gambler dot
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  Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites the podcast
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Moment, Chief
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. Big Fantasy Conversation today
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: in a few minutes, Action Networks all everything. You see
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: him on our NBA show Heat Check. You follow him
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: for his NBA heaters. You know him from hosting our
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: fantasy show Fantasy Flex from our NFL show on the
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Action Network with Stucky, also Fantasy Flex the podcast. That's
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: what I'm referring to. He has consistently been one of
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: the best player right ers on Fantasy Pros, the industry
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: standard for ranking the experts top five two years ago.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: His name is Chris Raybon. He's gonna come on in
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: a second after I bring on my bff, my companion,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: my capadre professional better. Nothing like talking a little NFL
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: some fantasy in late June, you know, just getting getting
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: fired up, buddy, like we literally every time we do
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: these little snippets were talking of thought. I mean, you're
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: both just like, ah God, I can't until September. So
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: This will hopefully hold over some of our die hards
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: who are just itching for some fantasy talk, because just
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  Speaker 1: like them, I love fantasy football like everyone else. It's
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: a form of gambling. I'm in on it. If you
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: can find an edge and fantasy football you can make
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: good money doing it. I'm sure Chris has made some
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: nice dollars doing these best Ball torments and things like that. Well, listen,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to disagree with you. Like, there's definitely
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: something about talking NFL. It's almost like when you get
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  Speaker 1: together with you the friends you've had for thirty years,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: and like there's a a sort of, uh a second
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: hand nature to the conversation, like everyone knows each other's habits.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: They're nods there, ticks and like can immediately jump in.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: That's what I feel like when I talk about the NFL.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: It just feels good, you know what I mean? It
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: just feels good, Raybon, Yo. Doesn't it make you feel good?
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: It does? You know. I'm still I'm still searching for
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: that friend I've had for thirty years. That it's probably
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: gonna take another another decade or so for me. But
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: point taking, point taking, don't give me your bullshit about
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying, man, that I have been five, I
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: don't have any friends since I was five? Well I do. Damn,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: that's on you. Then that's on you. I'm sorry because
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: some of my closest friends in the world are people
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: that I've been friends with since I was like five
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  Speaker 1: years old. And the fact at you know, I'm so
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: much older than you and can now say in my
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: professional life, I have people I have been friends with
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  Speaker 1: for almost thirty years. You'll get to that point soon.
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  Speaker 1: I will. Maybe not that song, but I will. You
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  Speaker 1: and I have already been friends for five years. I know.
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  Speaker 1: I'm just when I'm in my mid seventies, you can
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  Speaker 1: be spoon feeding me a DP rankings. Uh, let's talk
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  Speaker 1: about that today. Let's talk about average draft position, uh, raybon.
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  Speaker 1: For anybody who's like a hardcore better and is suddenly
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  Speaker 1: tangentially in fantasy, explain what a DP is. Average draft position.
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  Speaker 1: That's essentially the market for fantasy football. So it's just
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  Speaker 1: where on average each player is being drafted. Um. Usually
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  Speaker 1: you talk about it, uh in terms of position. So
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  Speaker 1: like Tom Brady, if he was the ninth quarterback off
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  Speaker 1: the board, you'd call him QB nine, but you can
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  Speaker 1: also talk about ADP in terms of their overall draft position. Um.
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  Speaker 1: And then there's a bunch of different sources. Fantasy Pros
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  Speaker 1: has one where, um, they kind of aggregate a bunch
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  Speaker 1: of different industry sites that people draft on for there.
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  Speaker 1: So that's the one we'll be using today. But um, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: that's an average draft position, just where players going on average. Alright,
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  Speaker 1: so today you're gonna run through eighteen different players. I
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  Speaker 1: think we're gonna have opinions on these, uh, which are
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  Speaker 1: basically your top three players, um that are sort of
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  Speaker 1: talkers in position, and then you're sort of bottom three
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  Speaker 1: players for lack of a better term, in each position,
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  Speaker 1: regardless of their current a DP. Well, no, no, it's
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  Speaker 1: with it. It's it's it's not regardless of it's it's
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  Speaker 1: relative to their ADP relatives. Like I'm out on Patrick Mahomes.
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  Speaker 1: He's not a bottom three player in fantasy. I just
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  Speaker 1: think he's on a little too high. So it's just
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  Speaker 1: it's just overvalued guys and undervalued guys relative to UM,
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  Speaker 1: they're very early. Uh you know, wait, June a DP,
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  Speaker 1: that's basically what I said. Nah, you said, he said,
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  Speaker 1: regardless of a DP that's a totally different thing. Donald,
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  Speaker 1: I I alright, fine, maybe I said it anyways, overvalued,
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  Speaker 1: undervalued based on a DP right, sound yeah, sounds really good.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about quarterbacks first, do it? Go? Okay, damn.
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  Speaker 1: My first one up is Tom Brady in terms of
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  Speaker 1: quarterbacks that are undervalued. He's going is the QB nine
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  Speaker 1: right now. And if you look at his two years
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  Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay, he finishes the QB seven and his
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  Speaker 1: first year and then he finishes the QB two last year,
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  Speaker 1: and you know part of the year, you know he
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  Speaker 1: was missing Antonio Brown. Uh. He's throwing the guys like
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Cyril Grayson and and and Brashad Perriman for game winning touchdowns.
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  Speaker 1: You just don't want to bet against this guy. And
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  Speaker 1: I think when you're talking about the pics that are
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  Speaker 1: going where Brady is going, um, you know you can
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  Speaker 1: get him, you know, outside of the top seventy eight
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  Speaker 1: overall usually like he could be a league winner. He does.
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  Speaker 1: He has another QB two finished, he could be a
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  Speaker 1: league winner. So you're not really risking that much um
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  Speaker 1: taking a quarterback. It's his spot, but the upside is
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  Speaker 1: still very, very high. And I think people are just
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  Speaker 1: gonna be a little bit scared because you know, how
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  Speaker 1: long could he keep doing this? But I mean, if
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  Speaker 1: anyone's gonna go out on top without an actually drop off,
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  Speaker 1: it's Tom Brady. And he's given us no real reason
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  Speaker 1: to show that he's gonna slow down in any substantial
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  Speaker 1: way yet, So I think at QB nine, I think
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  Speaker 1: you take him there. Now. If he was going at
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  Speaker 1: like QB two, QB three two be four, then you say, okay,
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  Speaker 1: well now it's kind of balanced out, no real value there.
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  Speaker 1: But QB nine for a guy that could you know,
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  Speaker 1: be a top two quarterback or even the QB one
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  Speaker 1: overall if things break right, I think that's the steal.
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  Speaker 1: I can't argue with you on Tom Brady. Um, But
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  Speaker 1: there's almost never anything to say about tom Brady because
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  Speaker 1: the bottom line is you don't better guess tom Brady.
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  Speaker 1: It's like a standard trope at this point. Your next one, though,
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  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter is going to have some significant opinions on
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  Speaker 1: let's go is Jalen Hurts from Simon's Eagles. He's going
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  Speaker 1: is a QB eight. Uh. He's all yoked up, which
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  Speaker 1: means absolutely nothing, But that's what everyone seems to be
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  Speaker 1: talking about with him. His upper body has finally caught
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  Speaker 1: up to his his lower body in terms of lifting,
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  Speaker 1: So I guess that's cool. But the reason I like
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  Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts is because he was the QB seven and
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  Speaker 1: points per game last year. Um Now he adds a
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  Speaker 1: J Brown to the mix, and that could also potentially
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  Speaker 1: increase not just his efficiency which should go up from
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  Speaker 1: having a J Brown in place of like Jalen Reagor essentially,
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  Speaker 1: but Devonte Smiths also entering year two, and just the
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  Speaker 1: combination of both of those things, the efficiency should increase.
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  Speaker 1: But they also may throw a little bit more now.
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  Speaker 1: I know they had the most success when they kind
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  Speaker 1: of went run heavy down the stretch last year. But
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  Speaker 1: with all that, with all that run heaviness, with Jalen
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  Speaker 1: Reagor taking up snaps, they he still finishes the QB
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  Speaker 1: seven points per game, So I see nowhere to really
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  Speaker 1: go butt up, And you know, I don't. I'm not
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  Speaker 1: worried about his job security or anything like that, So
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  Speaker 1: I think it's a It's a nice gamble on Jalen Hurts,
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  Speaker 1: who could easily is another guy he could finish with
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  Speaker 1: the QB one overall, he could put up a top
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  Speaker 1: two or three finish um And I don't really see
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  Speaker 1: much downside there, just because of his rushing ability. If
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  Speaker 1: he's not throwing a lot, if you know, he's still
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  Speaker 1: gonna be running the football. So I think Jalen Hurts
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  Speaker 1: is a high floor, high ceiling court back at this point. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I think Christ has nailed it. Where when I look
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  Speaker 1: at Jalen Hurts, I believe he's the league winner. Every
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  Speaker 1: year there's a quarterback that you gotta grab at the
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  Speaker 1: end of these first round like these first batchel of
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  Speaker 1: quarterbacks to top ten, top twelve quarterbacks like Tom Brady
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  Speaker 1: love what you just talked about, how he killed it
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  Speaker 1: last year. Brady is a nice guy where you can
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  Speaker 1: grab him, and you can grab a Trevor Lawrence later
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  Speaker 1: on you grab you pair him with some young quarterback.
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  Speaker 1: Hurts is kind of guy you can grab and that's it, right,
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  Speaker 1: Like you're kind of banking on him being the guy
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  Speaker 1: that's gonna win you the league. And I look at Hurts,
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  Speaker 1: this is it, Like this is the perfect setup what
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  Speaker 1: he just talked about. It's the year two and him
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: in this offense, he's got a J Brown now got her.
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  Speaker 1: It's a great tight end. There's a lot of offensive
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  Speaker 1: weapons on this team and what we would call a
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: weaker division. So to me, I I Chris nailed it.
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  Speaker 1: It's like I had him probably top five is my
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks into the year. And again you don't want to
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: take too much from the spring football, but the fact
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: that he's been putting the work and he's got the
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: body now right all we had to season. He's got
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: the mind. And I talked last year the biggest issue
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Hurts is the second read. The kid could not make
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: the second read. And when praises when players are breakdown,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Hurt's actually did pretty good finding guys downfield, but when
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: it's all common he's in the pocket, he wouldn't look
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: for the second read. As soon as that first read
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: was going, he pulled down and run and that cost
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: him major place. So no excuses for him this year.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: To me, it's like, I love his upside too much.
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  Speaker 1: If this kid can throw forty touchdowns and run for
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: ten or fifteen touchdowns easily a league winner. So I'm
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: right there with Chris. I love the upside of Hurts
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: this season. Yeah, and the thing you know, you talk
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: about that second read. And I was just talking to
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: somebody about this too, is you know, you know, you
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: know what you're getting with DeVante Smith already, Like he
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: could be a number one receiver, you know, if if
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: they didn't have a J. Brown like he I think
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  Speaker 1: he's that good. He showed a year, you had a
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: pretty good rookie year. Guys usually take their year to leave.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: But like you have a J. Brown, you have Smith,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: and you have got her, So like you have three
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: guys now that can create pretty decent separation. So it's like, yeah,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: hurt is always gonna miss some means. He's not a
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  Speaker 1: perfect quarterback. That's why, you know, that's why he is
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: what he is. That's why he was drafted outside the
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: first round. But just having guys that are gonna be open,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: you know, so that he doesn't he maybe has that
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: extra half second, you know, if he gets to that
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: second read, if it's if the processing still not as
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: as great as you know, Tom Brady or some of
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: the other great quarterbacks in this league, he's still gonna
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: have guys that are open at three different positions on
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: a lot of um passing players. So I think that's
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: that's really important. That's why to A J. Brown? Um,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: you know acquisition I think is so meaningful. Well, look,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: it's really interesting because the Eagles have said we're all
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: in on Jalen Hursts this year, right, this is the
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: year to prove it. If it doesn't work out, we're
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: gonna go in another direction. But we've given him the weapons.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: We got a J. Brown, We've surrounded him with talent,
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  Speaker 1: Like it makes total sense based on what he did
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: last year, the opportunity he's going to get and the
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: weapons he's got to value him based too, to undervalue
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: him based on his a DP right now, whereas the
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: next quarterback on your list, you gotta take a leap
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: of fucking faith. Yeah, yeah, and it's it's Daniel Jones.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: And the reason and this is this is a two
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: quarterback weak kind of play, because there's no other reason
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: to be even looking at a guy that's going is
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: the quarterback right now. But I think it's interesting because
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: he was, you know, just inside the top twenty last
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: year in terms of points per game at the position,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: and that was with a terrible offensive line, which three
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: of the starters from the old line last year are
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: not even signed by any NFL team yet. Like, that's
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: how bad this roster was. Top four receivers missed a
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: combined twenty four games. You know, Quan wasn't right the
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: whole year. He's gonna have you only had one good
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: tackle now he should have to, uh if you know,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: if the draft pick pans out evanil so they're just
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: and then you have dabl who you know it was
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: there oversaw Josh Allen kind of growing from a guy
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: who we didn't know at one point into a very
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: good quarterback. And I don't think Jones has the same
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: kind of talent, but I just think everything about Daniel
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Jones situation is better than it was last year, where
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: he was the QB eight teen in points per game.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: So like this guy could sneak into like you know,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: maybe like a QBL in the best case scenario, but
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: even if not at QB nine, if you're in a
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: two quarterback league, I think he's definitely giving you startable
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: value um, just based on the fact that he can
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: run and literally everything is better around him that it
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: was a year ago. It's always interesting how gms come
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: in and evaluate talent, right because clearly now this is
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: the second round of of management that has a belief
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: in Daniel Jones at least for this year, or maybe
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: they surveyed they didn't have many options based on what
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: was available in the market. But also what you just said,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: terrible offensive line that the Giants just gave him no help,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of injuries, say Quon so who knows Danny
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Dimes could be throwing dimes right? And Jason Garrett too
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: forgot to even mention. I mean, the list was so
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: long of things that weren't right, and I'm not like
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: I'm listen. I'm not trying to sit here and say
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones is a good or even above average quarterback
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: or anything like that or like this like it was,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: because I hate when people say, like, oh, well, this
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: guy didn't play well because he didn't have anything around
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's been the argument for Sam Donald and
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: all these guys. I'm just saying, for fancy purposes, he
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: was like just below average last year in terms of
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: points per game at QB eighteen, and now everything around
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: him is better. So you know, you put those two
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: things together and you could get a better a half
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: decent fantasy year, and he's free. So that that's what
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: I'm saying I'm not saying he's good or like the
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: like they're right for having a for having faith in him,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: because I still haven't seen enough to make me think
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: he's like a franchise quarterback. But and I think he's
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: still a net negative if you're talking about, you know,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks worth to the spread. But I just think for
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: fantasy he's free and he could give you you could
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: outperform his ADP by like ten best case scenario even fifteen,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: fifteen slots. All right, your list of qbs sinking, for
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: lack of a better term, your overvalued quarterbacks, Yeah, over
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the top of the list, Yeah right, Patrick Mahomes QB two.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I just think that's too high for Patrick Mahomes without
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Tyreek King. And we let's put some numbers behind this.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Over the last four incredible years from Patrick Mahomes, he's
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: averaging a full yard per attempt less throwing to everyone
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: not named Tyreek Ko and then his touchdown percentage goes
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: from eight point three percent to Hill to six point
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: four to everyone else. And that may not sound like
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: a lot. So if you put it in terms of touchdowns,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: that's over thirteen touchdowns per six past attempt difference. If
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: you just put you use his touchdown rate for everyone
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: else as opposed to Tyreek Hill. So like if you're
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: drafting a quarterback highly, first of all, it's usually a
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: mistake period because usually people start one quarterback and it's
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: just a supplying demand issue. There's always gonna be quarterbacks
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: that you that are gonna be startable further down the list.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: We just talked about Tom Brady, we just talked about
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts, and even if you go a little further down,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: there's still guys you're gonna be able to kind of
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: stream and mix and match. So if you're drafting a
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: quarterback highly, you have to be sure. And first of all,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes wasn't even the quarterback to last year, you know,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: and I was with Tyreek No defenses started to figure
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: something's out. So now you're taking away this generational talent
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: who que year we had a big impact on Patrick
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Mahomes's numbers, and you're again expecting him to finish quarterback
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: too and higher and higher than last year. It just
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: I just think that's that's just overvaluing a guy, and
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: it's because he has that name, Patrick Mahomes. It's really
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: hard for people when they get to a certain point
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: in the draft and there's maybe like, you know, guys
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: who you would call like running back two's and wide
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: receiver two's, and then they see Patrick Mahomes and it's
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: it's hard for people to pass on that name versus
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: like a guy you know, kind of a middling wide
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: receiver two or running back too. But first of all,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: it's the quarterback position. But second of all, it just
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: doesn't make sense that he would have a season a
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: QB two season without Tyree Kill. You know, it's if
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: he was going to be a QB nine, then I say, okay, hey,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: this guy, this is what he does. He finishes you know,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: top five, top six, so better than them. But at
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: QB two it's the opposite. He's overvalued, and so I think,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: you know, I think you're gonna want to fade him
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: applying the D because he can't. The only thing he
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: could do to beat his ADP is finishes the top quarterback. Like,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: is that really likely in his first year without Tyreek Ki? No? Yeah,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: I would say most of them do draft him, though
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: they're not You're not draft him to the second quarter.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: They're drafting him just to hope top five because he's
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: just consistent. That's what they're banking on. I'm with you.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: The Tyreek thing kind of throws a wrench into that.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: It's like, again, I'm with people. He's a dominant, incredible quarterback,
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: but he was always consistent when he had Tyreek Hill.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: So I'm I'm with you. It's a little high, a
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: little little little too high for my homes. But I
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: guess that's just the fantasy community feels comfortable and they
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: feel more safe with taking him there. But your next
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: quarterback in those list is really interesting, your quarterback ten
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: um where do you have him dropping too? So Aaron
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Rodgers is is who Sam is talking about, what you're
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: talking about, And yeah, listen, the thing about Aaron Rodgers is,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: first of all, let me so, I think I think
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: he's like eleven twelve fourteen quarterback this year without Davonte Adams.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think that means the Packers will be bad.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: But you just have to look at the numbers with
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: it without Adams. You know, over the last two years,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: nine point five yards per tent with Adams, seven point
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: eight with everybody else. So that's a massive difference. That's
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: even more than my homes and Hill and then the
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: touchdown percentage goes from nine point five percent to seven
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: point nine. So that's per six hundred attempts, that's just
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: about ten touchdowns difference. And let's remember Aaron Rodgers, you know,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: in the like the weight tens, you know, right before
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: you got la Floor and Hackett who packets also gone
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: to denver Um, But before you had them, Aaron Rodgers
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: was kind of in that nine to fourteen range in
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: terms of production. And that was with you know, at
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: least one good receiver. It was Devant was there, and
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: I think Jordy might have even been there for a
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: year at the beginning of that or something. But like
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, at one point, I was notorious and I
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: was wrong about it, but I was notorious for saying, hey,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: he might be done, like he might be falling off,
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: because he had like three straight years really was five,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: but like three straight fantasy years of middle wing production.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Now his top receiver is Alan Lazard or is it
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: Sammy Watkins or is it you know, Christian Watson, Randall Cobb.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Like it can be overstated how poor this Receiason Corps
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: is now, Like it's not good. These guys don't get separation.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: I just like, I don't think they're gonna throw as much.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: I think the touchdowns go way down, uh, and I
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: think the efficiency goes way down. Now. Aaron Rodgers, he
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: knows how to win football game, so he's gonna do
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: what he has to do, and he's probably gonna put
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: up decent numbers and they'll probably win win games. But
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: in fantasy, I don't want to. I don't want to
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: draft Aaron Rodgers is as an even a top ten quarterback. Like,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do it. Chris nailed it.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: They're saying that they're they're in a transition here, right.
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: We've read we we've read the reports, We've seen them
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: talk about it. They want to become a dominant defensive
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: team with a dominant run game, and a quarterback doesn't
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: turn the ball over. Rogers will sign up for that.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Rodgers knows he's getting older, so he wants less hits here,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: doesn't turn the ball all over. We'll see what this
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: year is gonna bring. But I'm I'm right there with Chris.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: There's so much more upside guys to take than Agan.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: Rogers coming off again back to back m vps. It's like,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: that's that's really hard to keep doing what he's doing
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: and now you're you know, not making them put a
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: high high on his back. But how many times we've
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: seen him get built out by Adam So it's gonna
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: be different for sure with the Screen Bay team. Now
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: your next one is really intriguing. From your QB thirteen,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: I'm interest here so we know again we're better talk
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: about Shawn Watson. There's a lot going on there. But
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: for you and your rankings, do you think you're too
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: high on him already just because of built in the
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: rumors of the drama that he's gonna be suspended for
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: six games maybe a whole season. Yeah, well, so two thirteen,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: that's the ADP, That's what it's ADP. I have them lower. Okay,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: that's yeah, So that the numbers that that we're talking
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: here with all a d p um, I have them lower.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: And that's because there's gonna be so much on certainty
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: had it into here and well two week thirteen, most
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: people put a twelve team in league. So I get
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: the QB thirteen. It's like, okay, he's the first quote
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: unquote backup off the board. But here's the thing, Like,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: if you're playing in a one QB league, you don't
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: want to be using more than one spot on a quarterback.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: So you either have a guy that you trust that
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: you're gonna play week in and week out, or you're
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: gonna be streaming and dropping, you know, only holding one
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: quarterback on the roster at the time. So I don't
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: like kind of wait and see stash him, see what happens.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: That's a waste of a roster spot. Then you can't
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: stash him when I r because he's not injured. We
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: don't have any idea how much he's gonna play. A
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: suspension could come down at any time, even during the season. Um,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: you know, if if we don't get clarity before so
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: like in less we get some like confirmation that okay,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be able to play for a full season,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: and because of whatever, maybe the legal proceedings will take
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: too long and it's just not gonna happen, then will
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: get suspended until you know, the NFL usually waits until
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: after that that kind of wraps up. That's the only
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: way that I think you go You go higher on watching.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: But right now it's like drafting. It was a QB thirteen,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: It's it's no man's land. It's like you're wasting a
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: roster spot. There's no guarantees how many games he plays,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: and at this point it looks like he's gonna get
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: at least the six games suspension. I mean, if I
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: was just kind of had to set a line. So
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: you know, it's just to me, it's just a waste
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: of a roster spot right now. Um, you know, I
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: think if and it's QB thirteen, it's like if it's
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: a twelve team league starting one quarterback again, it's like
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have guys, you know, Brady QB nine hurts
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: QB eight, Like there's gonna be other guys that you
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: could just get a little bit earlier that are guaranteed
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: to be in the lineup weekend week out. So yeah,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: I just don't see the point with with Deshaun at
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: this moment. And like if people and and if I'm
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: wrong and he plays the whole year, it's it's like
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, well, well no, we should be able
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: to know that. It's like it's not something where you know,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: at this point, it's just a risk. It's just it's
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: just a risk. Not a smart draft, Christalan, that not
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: a good uh In your running backs that are undervalued,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: I feel like the first one on the list that
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at right now is right on the border
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: of that undervalued. If his a DP was one spot higher,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: he'd probably be in the perfect spot. I don't know,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey. He's the RB five consensus at Fantasy Pros.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: I think he has to be no lower than two
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: because first of all, what is where where is the
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: discount coming from? Is it coming from the fact that
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: he has only played you know, was it eight games
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: over the last couple of years or no, I think
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: it was more than that. But you know, he's missed
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: a ton of games over these past two years. Um,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: and there's a discount going on because of that. But
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: I think people are discounting of too much, considering that
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: every running back is the injury risk, Like every single
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: running back is the injury risk. So then you say, okay,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: well take out the injuries for a second, and just
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: because every running back is an injury risk, and just
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: look at the production. He put up twenty or more
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: half PPR points in four of the five games he
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: finished last years. Then you know, the ones that he
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: didn't get hurt and weave early. Uh. And then in
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: each of the two years before that, he was not
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: only the top overall running back in Fantasy, but he
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: was by at least four points per game over the
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: next closest running back. And he was doing the same
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: thing last year. He just happened to get hurt and
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: leave two games early. That's it. That's the only things
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: that have changed. And now we're bumping him down to five.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: To me, I just don't get it, especially where you know,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: like Derrick Henry is also coming off an injury, but
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey has shown he can outscore him already. You know,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook gets hurt a lot too. You know, he's
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: not the Queen, he's not like the the becket of
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: of health, and he's going above McCaffrey. Now, like I,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: you know, these guys that are going above him, it
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: just doesn't really make sense. And it's just that people
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: are scared off because it's been two straight years of injuries.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: But like I, like, there's time, there's a time to
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: be worried about injuries. Like Sae Kwon bark Wey, I
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: was yelling for people not to touch him. Last year,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: everyone just thought he would go back to normal. But
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: this is different. This is there's no reason to expect
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey to get any more hurt than any other year.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: And if healthy, he's probably the top running back, even
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: over Taylor because Tarylor, I mean, Tarlor put up such
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: an outlier year, whereas like McCaffrey's already done it twice,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if you could call it an
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: outlier where he just completely destroyed every other player in
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Fantasy in terms of points per games. So yeah, I
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: think five is too low. I think four would be
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: too low. Rbift playoff Lenny Leonard for Nett. This guy
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: landed in a supreme spot, and a lot of guys
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: landing supreme spots. What he's done is not fucking out.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, And so every one was kind of out
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: on him after, you know, the Jaguar failures with Jacksonville,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: but playing with Tom Brady really helps. And just look
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: at first of all, look at the numbers. He's going
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: as the RB fifteen on average. He was the RB
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: seven last year in both total production and points per game.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Then he got twelve million guaranteed on a three year deal,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: really a two year deal, but still twelve million guaranteed
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: is a lot for a running back. They replaced Ronald
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Jones with a rookie who it's the scouting report is
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: he struggles in past protection. So there's a chance for
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: next season an even larger workload this year than he
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: did last year, where again he was the RB seven.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: He was a top ten running back, a top eight
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: running back last season. So yeah, I don't I don't
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: get the RB fifteen. I know he's aged twenty seven. Now,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: that's usually when running backs start to start to decline,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: maybe a year later, but I think he still has
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: at least this one more good year. And there's nothing
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: to suggest that he was slowing down, and there's no
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: injury to speak up, like, there's really nothing. I don't.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: I don't understand why people are so low on him. Uh.
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: Another one that people are undervaluing, according to you, our
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: two James Connor. Yeah, I mean we know they had
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: to choose between Connor and Edmonds, or they felt they did.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: They let Edmonds Walukee goes to Miami, so now James
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Connors here, and I know they just signed Darryl Williams
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: and but like these guys like no like you know,
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: somebody will have to be the backup. But Connor in
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: five games without Edmonds last year, one point six touches
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: per game, ninety six point six scrimmage yards per game,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: one point four touchdowns per game. Oh and if you
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: watched him play, he looked like one of the best
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: running backs in the league pretty much weekend and week out,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: but especially in those games where he was the feature
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: of back, like this guy, he was giving him more
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: juice than Kyler. You know, most of that year, he
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: was giving him more juice than DeAndre Hopkins. Like he
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: was the best player on that offense for stretches for
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: much of the year. He was a complete beast and
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: they paid him. And all we've seen from him when
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: there's no like guy to like form a true committee with,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: and there's not gonna be and there you know, there's
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: no one on that roster that would be right now,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: he's been a twenty plus touch guy and we saw
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: him doing in Pittsburgh too, So it's not even like
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: he's done it in two different places where where he's
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: had the starter's role and performed at a very high level. So,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: and again, yes, he's been injury prone at times. Every
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: running back is, so I don't see any reason to
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: discount him for that. I know he's had a couple
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: of injury play gears in Pittsburgh, but um, yeah, this
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: guy's balls. So let's run through and we get this
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: kind of quick just because these are the guys you're
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: down on the running backs that are dropping. Let's start
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: with Antoni Gibson right now, a DP running back twelve.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: What's your view on him? Yeah, I think he should
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: just be maybe four or five six spots lower, kind
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: of around where he finished last year. He was RB
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: eighteen in points per game and half PPR last year,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: and that was with j. D. Mckissic playing only eleven games.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: And I think that's kind of issue with Gibson is
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: that he's really not ever gonna be like that true
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: three down back, not only because of mckissic's presence, but
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: also because he really wore down last year as the
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: season went on, and you could see a kind of
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: clear correlation between you know, as the workload increased, the
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: yards per carrying the yards after contact uh started to drop.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: You know, So you know, his first year in the league.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: He had two hundred six touches and he averaged five
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: point one yards per touch. Then that went up to
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: three hundred touches, and he lost, you know, close to
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: a full yard per touch. He dropped to four point four. So, um,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: I just think he's going a little too How they
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: also drafted the rookie Robinson Um and he could he
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: could actually steal a few like short yardage carries and
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: things like that. So um, I just I just don't
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: think he's a RB one in fantasy. I think he's
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: he's RB two and he's being drafted like a low
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: RB one. So as many people know and keeper leagues,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: you always want to draft the injury players from last year.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: So one of the bigger draft and stash players from
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: last year j K. Dobbins. I see his a DPS
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: number twenty, You think that's too high? That's interesting. I
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: would love to hear what's your view on him right now? Yeah,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: so listen to another great player j K. Dobbins. I mean,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: from what we've seen at of anyway, very talented player,
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: good runner, you know, works in their system. But when
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: you're talking about fantasy and you're talking about and R
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: B two. I got a guy that you're gonna count
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: on the start, weekend, week out. I got it. You're
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: gonna draft in the first, you know, five rounds. You
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: want him to be more of a short thing, and
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: you want him to you don't want him to be
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: kind of overreliant on any one thing. And I just
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: think Dobbins is gonna be very reliant on touchdowns and
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: game script and things like that, because he only average
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: one point two receptions per game. Um, you know in
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: his lone year that we've seen him, and we know
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Baltimore they're not really throwing to the back. That's just
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: not how their offense goes. Greg Roman is still there.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: I don't expect that to change. Um. You also got
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: a factor in that they they always kind of have
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: been a committee team. You know, Gus Edwards is still
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: gonna mix in and and not just like mix in,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: he's gonna get a substantial workload as well. And then
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: you also just have the fact that Dobbins isn't healthy year.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: You know, he he you know, messed up his knee
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: last year and he's still working his way back and
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: we still have no guarantees that he's healthy as of
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: right now, um so, I just think all those factors combined,
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: he has a lot of bus potential, you know. Taking
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: him in the top twenty running backs, um, I just think,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: you know, the lack of receiving usage combined with the
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: fact that with the health, combined with the committee, um
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: you know, there's just a lot of question marks to
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: be taking him in the spot where you could just
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: get a you don't necessarily have to take a different
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: running back. But I think it's a great spot. You know,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: those four, fifth, six, those middle rounds draft wide receivers,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: get us get a top six, top seven tight end
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: before they dry up, because you just don't need to
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: be taking these these frozen pond running backs where yeah,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: one or two of them get hit, but you're looking
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: at a lot, a lot more of a higher bus
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: rate at that position given the players that are going
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: they're compared to receivers and tight ends. And also right now,
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: right now, it's crazy to me that is a DPS
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: twenty three. But Damien Harris is being the drafted running
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: back right now? What's your view on him going to
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: this kind of similar to Dobbins. The averaged one point
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: two receptions per game, and he scored fifteen touchdowns last
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: year attempts, which is amazing. But like, think about it
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: this way, would you draft La Garrett like Pete La
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Garrett Blunt in New England, you know, in in the
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: top twenty as RB two, I don't think you would
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: because he doesn't catch the ball. It's the same thing
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: here and and we just don't know what is gonna
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: come over Vermandre Stevenson, like those guys at times are
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: splitting the snaps evenly, and it just so happened that
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: they both, you know, we're able to be productive at
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: times because there was no James White in that mix
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: from much of the year, and he's gonna be back
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: as well, so now you could have it could be
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: like a like a forty forty twenty or like a
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: thirty five thirty five thirty split and snaps between Harris
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Stevenson and White. You know, they're just that's and then
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: and that's on top of just the fact that touchdowns
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: really unpredictable, unsustainable, and that's what he's gonna rely on.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: So you know, if he was going you know outside
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: maybe thirty thirty first where you could take a swing
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: at hopefully he gets another double digit touchdown year. I'll
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: be all in, but RB twenty three, I don't think
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: I could rely on this guy all year as a
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  Speaker 1: oneabler dot net in West Virginia. I want to flip
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: the script because we've been going rising and sinking undervalued overvalued.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: I want us to end on something positive. So Simon,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: you're gonna ask Raybon about undervalued receivers, Raybon I want
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: to start with the overvalued, and I'm surprised at why
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: receiver thirteen Jalen Waddle is overvalued given the optimistic nature
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: of his new circumstances. So it's optimistic in the sense
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: that wide receivers year two is the new year three,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: like it used to be wide receivers breakout in year three.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: Now it's usually a year two when you see a
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: big jump. Now, Wildo also had a very good rookie year,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how much more of a jump
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: he can necessarily make, but I don't necessarily viewed the
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: circumstances as kind of better for him to produce in fantasy.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: Last year he had a hundred forty targets, a hundred
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: and four catches. Now Tyreko is there. Tyreek Hill just
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: had an interview where he explained why he wanted out
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: of Kansas City, and it was because he wasn't being
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: used enough, right Like, so you know, Miami, they're gonna
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: they're gonna kind of use him as much as possible.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: And on top of that, he's just a guy who
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: you know, you look at targets per route run, you know,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: that's how you kind of project out wide receivers and
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: when you're you know, putting a guy in a new spot,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: and last year, like Waddle was far and away, you know,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: the only kind of plus guy in terms of targets
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: per route run for the Dolphins like he was. He
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: was getting open, he was getting a separation, the ball
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: was going his way. Now you've got a receiver that
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: is better than him in that spot, and you're still
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: expecting him to finish as a top fifteen fantasy receiver.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: He was wide receiver twenty in points per game last year,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: and that was with a hundred forty targets and a
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: hundred and four catches. He was wide receiver twenty. Now
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: you're expecting him to jump seven spots after you added
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: one of the best receivers in the league and one
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: of the most highly targeted receivers in the league. It
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: just doesn't really make It just doesn't really make sense
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: from a numbers perspective. Even though the player is very good,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: and the player could even improve from last year in
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: terms of just his skills, the numbers aren't necessarily gonna
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: back are gonna match that in terms of his fantasy
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: production With Hill, there what I love that you do
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: very well specifically, and this is what betters do well
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: and what successful fantasy players do well. They completely flip
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: conventional wisdom and the way the crowd is going on
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: its head. Jalen Waddle, everything you just said is such
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: brilliant analysis breaking down the numbers versus what I framed
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: as positive circumstances, which actually aren't that positive at all,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: especially compared to what the numbers were last year. Another
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: guy who blew up last year everyone talked about is
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: being key to the Las Vegas Raiders getting to the playoffs.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Wide receiver twenty nine and a DP Hunter Renfroll. Yeah,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: and this is a similar situation to Waddle, where Hunter Renfrow,
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: you know, he's got two guys that are going to
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: be schemed more than him in his offense now, Davante
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Adams and Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro last year, you
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: look at his numbers within without Waller, you know there's
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: and he's a very good receiver. He gets a lot
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: of separation. You know, we've seen the like triple and
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: quadruple moves that he sets the defenders up with. So
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: he's another great receiver, but he his you know his
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: catches per game dropped by one point two with Waller
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: in the lineup that and then and now you're adding
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: Davantae Adams to that. You know, you're taking a one
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: point to catch drop and then you're adding atoms, which
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: could be another you know, one point to catch drop.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: And Renfro is not a guy who's getting a high
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: yards per per catch or anything like that. So he's
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: a guy the loss of volume hurts him a lot
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: because for his career, he averages eleven yards per catch um.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: You know, nine touchdowns last year is probably an outlier,
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: especially for a guy his size. You know, it's kind
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: of a slot guy. So I just think that it's
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: really gonna be tough for him to produce top thirty numbers.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: With those two guys. He might be a top thirty
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: sever in the league in terms of his route running ability,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: all that good stuff, but in fantasy, it's hard to
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: to expect that kind of season from him. With the
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, Javonte alone would it would probably have knocked
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: that down. But you're also bringing Waller back, who missed
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: you know, significant time last year. If both of those
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: guys are healthy, is this is gonna be really tough.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: And and also you want guys when you're drafting wide receivers,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: especially around this spot, you want guys who have that
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: upside to be their team's number one, but no lower
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: than their team's number two. And Hunter Renfros already he's
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: already the team's number three. So it's just it's just
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: a situation where I think, you know, the floor is
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: probably decent, but I think he could go with a
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: hire in terms of the upside. You're overvalued at wide receivers.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Thirty five a guy whose stock has been falling i'd
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: say the last year, uh, in his time with the
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals, DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah, and this is another one
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: of those numbers plays, because it's really hard to kind
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: of figure out how do I discount a six game suspension, right,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: you know, it's it's something that it's like, okay, wide
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: receiver thirty five, that that sounds right. You know, he's
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: usually in the top ten. We would drop him to
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: twenty five spots. It's really hard for people that aren't
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: like modeling this or really looking at the numbers to
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: to get like an accurate way of discounting the six games.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: First of all, the six games is a little more significant.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: It's not six, you know, divided into seventeen. It's six
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: divided into sixteen. Because no one plays fantasy on the
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: last day. So it's not like you're you're spreading some
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: of that suspension out over the full season. It's even less.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: But okay, last year Hopkins was the wide receiver seventeen,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: and you know, so he's already dropping in terms of
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: points per game. He's already dropping from his his heyday.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: Now you've added Marquis Brown, zach Ertz will be there. Um,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: you know, Rondale Moore is entering year two, so you
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: still got competition for targets. So you look at wide
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: receiver seventeen, I scored a hundred ninety three points. He's
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: gonna miss thirty seven point five percent of the season, guaranteed,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: couldn't miss more because wide receivers tend to miss, you know,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: one or two games with injury. Hopkins actually miss more
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: than that last year. But let's just go off that
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: six point five, you know, which is six into sixteen. Uh,
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: it's which is ten into sixteen, the amount of games
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: we expect him to play. You take that from the
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: wide receiver seventeen points last year, which is a hundred
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: nine and and you take sixty two point five percent
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: of that and you get a hundred and twenty points
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: that would equal the wide receiver forty five. So that's
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: just some back, some rough back of the envelope math
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: to tell you that he's still going about ten spots
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: too high. He's been discounted, but not enough. So for
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: your wide receivers, you got on the rise. I really
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: like these. You know, we'll start off with the highest one,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: a DP wide receiver ten from Mike Evans. Can't get
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: no respect, Mike Evans. You think that's too low or
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: too high? Yeah, I think that's too low. But like,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: and it's because Mike Evans is like the highest floor
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: receiver pretty much in fantasy. I mean, like I think this,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: I think he should be going like seven. It's like
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: I would take him above like Ceedee Lamb is going seventh.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: I would take him above Ceedee Lamb a thousand yards
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: or more every season. And he's had eight seasons already,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: So that's pretty like no Gronk right now with Brady, Yeah,
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: we don't and in No A B. You know, so
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: there's still you know, there's there's room to grow. But
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: he's done this every year, regardless of the quarterback, regardless
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: of the circumstances. He's had a thousand plus yards every season,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: which also means he stays healthy. That's another big thing.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: Like you know, he he's a big guy, he's built,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: you know, very he's thick. He can stay healthy. He's
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: proving it so far. So that's you know, that's an
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: added bonus. But not only has he put up you know,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: a thousand yards and all eight of his pro seasons
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: he's had at least thirteen touchdown receptions in each of
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: his two years with Tom Brady. So it's like you
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: have a high floor and a high ceiling. And like
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: you said, if Gront doesn't come back, maybe even if
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: he does, because you still you're going from you know,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Brown to Russell Gauge, Chris Godwin probably misses time at
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the year. There's room to grow in
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: terms of the target share for a very talented guy.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: So I love the floor ceiling combo. For my guess,
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: I see another guy you're high on going right now
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: at averag draft position. While receiver thirty nine Robert Woods
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: our guy back off you know, pretty major injury, but
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: he's had plenty of time to rehab. I love where
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: you're coming from this angle. He's getting drafted way too late.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: Why was she with thirty nine? Can't get to respect
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: Robert Woods? Yeah, and listen, I get you know, it's
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: still early. Um, I expect him to start creeping up.
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: But I've been kind of keeping tabs on him because
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: I'm very interested, you know, because I think he will
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: be a value if he's still if he's going out
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: of spot like this, as long as he's healthy. And
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: I've been you know, watching some videos out of camp,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: and I mean he's cutting hard, he's catching some passes. Um,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: he looks good like he doesn't like And this is
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: let me kind of contrast this with a guy like
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: Michael Thomas, another guy coming off injury. He hasn't played
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: in a while, Mike Tom Michael Thomas still hasn't practicing,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: Like we have no idea what like when he's gonna
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: be back, if he's gonna be good to go for
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: for training camp and feeds not you know, Chris God
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: with another guy like he's not you know, he's not
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: back like Robert Woods is out here and he's moving around,
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: he's looking good. And again, what did I say about
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: the you know, wide receiver. When you get out of
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: the top you know five or so and into that
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: you know, thirty forty range, you're looking for guys who
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: can be like a number one. And Robert Woods, if
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: he's healthy, it's a very high likelihood that he's the
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: Titans number one receiver over trailing Burks, who's had some
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: struggles in camp, who's a rookie. UM. I think Woods
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: comes in here and and and is the number one.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: And he's had between eleven point four and thirteen point
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: nine half PPR points per game over the last five seasons.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: That puts him between wide receiver nine and wide receiver
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: twenty five. UM. And that's you know, and that's and
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: that's with you know, last year for example, twelve point
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: five half PPR points per game that was with Cooper
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Up going off. That wasn't as the number one option there.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: So I know Tennessee throws a lot less, but he's
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: gonna get the same opportunity as a J. Brown in
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: terms of you know, the routes being on the field
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: and you know, potentially the targets if he's if he's healthy,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: which it looks like he is. So yeah, I think
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: he's going to be a steel at a wide receiver
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: threte now and the last one here wide receiver forty six,
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: Christian Kirk going very late and you you like him
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: way about that position doing it. Yeah, So this it's
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: just a bet on the fact that like it's it's
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: just a smart gamble. I guess you could say at
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: that point in the draft, wide receiver forty six, y're
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: essentially getting him as a low end number four receiver
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: for another guy who could be and I would says
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: he's the most likely guy if you Jackson's number one receiver, sigmon,
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: and you talked earlier, like you know, you kind of
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: implied Trevor Lawrence might take a step forward, right, you know,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: and I think he can only go up from from
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: what he did last year. You know he has talent um,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: So Christian Kirk. In the seven games without DeAndre Hopkins
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: last year, you average five point six catches sixty five
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: yards per game. You know, that was his time as
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: he showed he could be a true number one receiver
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: or at least put up those kind of numbers. You know,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: even getting more defensive attention. And then you look at
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: the targets per route run and his you know, his
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: number last year nineteen point four percent. That was higher
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: than Marvin Jones who was at eighteen point two uh
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: and Za Jones who was at seventeen points too with
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: the Raiders. So you know, when you're projecting this out
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: just based on the numbers alone, you know, Christian Kirk,
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: you would project him to get the most targets on
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: the team. And then you look at the contract they
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: gave him, uh, and you look what he did when
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: he was that top guy, and you say, Okay, like
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: this guy, you know, maybe he doesn't put up top
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: twenty numbers, but I think he definitely could sneak into
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: the top thirty. Is the Jaguars, you know, number one receiver,
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: de facto number one receiver. So um, I think wide
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: receiver four he six is way too low. Dude. We
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: have covered it. We have gone through undervalued, overvalued, a
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: DP for quarterbacks, for running backs, receivers, We had surprises,
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: we had controversy, everything you could want in a list.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybon of The Action Network are due everything analysts,
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: but really one of the best gambling and fantasy analysts
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: in the country, according to every metric, whether you attract
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: him in the app, whether you follows see his rankings
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros. Listen to him and Sean Kroner every
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: week on Fantasy Flex, the fantasy podcast from the Action Network.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: Well done, Raybon. I will definitely be your friend thirty
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: years from now. Love it for that, I love it.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Thanks for having you guys. Always a pleasure for Chris Raybon,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Milman.
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the volume of podcast network.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: Download us from Apple, podcast Spotify, subscribe, rate, review, leave
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: gift until next time, and love you