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NFL Week 5 BEST BETS | Who Are These Teams Really? · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your hand. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this man. But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Put the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 4: Down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 5: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: hold on Let me pull you out That fella fights
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: hard But he don't get the.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you with Toadstool
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: Sports NFL Week 5 edition coming up. Is it Week 5?
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: I think that's right. It'll be the first week with
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: a couple of teams on bye. Oh, I forgot to
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: put my– hold on. I've got to put all my
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: plays in the system here. I apologize. I'm throwing off
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: right now, man. We're doing pretty well over the last
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: few days. I'll talk about that in the morning on
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: the morning show. The morning show is going to be
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: pretty short, I feel. Let me get my plays in here.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: Hopefully I get these numbers correct on these. But, yes,
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: I have three plays to give out with the NFL here.
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: I think they're all good. They're all different situations. Let's
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: get some wins here.
• 2:10
  Speaker 6: Mr.
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: Penzi, what's up? Maybe you should be Mr. Winzie if
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: you play my players. Hopefully they're going to win. Dude,
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to even say.
• 2:21
  Speaker 6: I don't know.
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: Let's just get into this. Let's do it. I don't
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: want to take too long here. We do have another
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: London game, unfortunately, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium again at 9.30 a.m.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: Eastern between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars,
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: of course, they're The London de facto team, they always
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: play in London, which, you know, does that give them
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: a real edge here? I don't know. I mean, they're
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: used to traveling here because they play at least one
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: London game, I think, every single year. It's all totally stupid.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: They become the Jaguars. Yeah, Winzie and Wode, yeah. I think,
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: I don't know if they're just not playing in Wembley
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: anymore because I think both London games have been in
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: Tottenham Hotspur so far, but it doesn't matter. Both teams
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: do have to travel out there. But the thing you're
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: going to notice about this game is this line has
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: moved like crazy. Jacksonville was going to be a 3.5-point favorite,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: and now they're a 7.5-point favorite. I mean, come on, man.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: This line has just gotten ridiculous. The total's also dropped
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: down to about 41.5 here, so you're looking at a
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: pretty low total with a number that I just think
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: is way too high. What we have going on with
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Philly is that.
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia, they have a bunch of injuries, okay? That's the
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: reason why this line is moved like this. Saquon Barkley
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: is not going to be playing in this game. Jalen
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: Hurts is hurt, I think, but he's going to play.
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: And Devontae Smith is also missing this game. So you're
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: looking at the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia Phillies are injured, but
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: the thing is, you have to figure out, is this
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: line an overreaction? I kind of think that it is.
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: There's no way that I would lay these points with
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: Jacksonville here, like 7.5. I think Jacksonville's just way overhyped
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: at this point. They're coming off a win over Cleveland.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: Excuse me, not Cleveland, Cincinnati. They beat Cleveland earlier in
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: the season. But if you dig into that box score,
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: Jacksonville against Cincinnati, I mean, Cincinnati was without Jamar Chase,
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: and I think Higgins got hurt in that game too.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: And I think Cincinnati still actually outgained Jacksonville in that game,
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: if I'm not mistaken. So that game wasn't really what
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: it appeared to be. Although I will say that the
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Eagles against the Rams wasn't what it appeared to be either.
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: It appeared to be a close game. Yeah, so believe
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: it or not, yeah, the Bengals actually outgained Jacksonville by
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: over 100 yards in that game. But they had a
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: couple of turnovers, and that's kind of what did the
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: Bengals in in that game. I thought the Bengals would
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: win that game. That wasn't the case, of course. Philadelphia, though,
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: they played horribly against the Rams. The Rams wound up
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: winning the game. It looked like Philly had a chance
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: in that game. The Rams dominated the box score, though.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: The Rams completely outgained them. So what do we do
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: with this game? Well, still, I would say I think
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: you've got to take the points with Philly if you're
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: really going to play this game. I don't want to
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: do it because I just don't even know what their
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: offense is going to look like here. Running backs can
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: be plug and play, although Barkley is one of the
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: best running backs in the game, obviously. But still, I
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: don't see Philadelphia's offense taking enough of a hit to
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: warrant a four-point move on this. And Jacksonville, they do
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: play Houston next, I'm pretty sure. So they do have
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: a divisional game next. I don't know if that's... Does
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: that matter that much? I don't know. But they're coming
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: off a win over the Bengals. Houston at least is.
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: Probably still the biggest threat to Jacksonville in this division,
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: to be honest. I honestly don't really see Indy as
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: that much of a threat, even though I am an
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: Indy fan. Philly, they're still the Eagles, man. I mean,
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: they still have a good defense, so you're going to
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: give them all these points. I think they can kind
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: of ugly this game up and hang around, so I
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: like the Eagles in this one. Jacksonville's got 51% of tickets,
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: 54% of the cash on them. I don't know what
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: to read into with those numbers there, but I think
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: the line has just gotten out of control with Jacksonville.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: So I think if you play it, you've got to
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: take the points in that one. You took the Buccaneers.
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: Was it rigged? I don't know. I mean, I leaned
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: to the Bucs plus the points. I didn't think they
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: were going to win. Panthers obviously are not the best team. Garrett,
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: what's up? Undead, what's up, man? Yeah, good luck with that.
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: The Panthers, no chance. Absolutely no chance. Yes, that's right.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: I only support your teams if I bet on them.
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: You bet 16 games today, or you had 16 bets today.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: That's too much for me. But I went 3-1, so
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: we had the same percentage today. You know, you... You
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: won more units, although I think my unit size might
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: be bigger than yours, though. I'm not here to compare
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: unit size, though. You had four times as many bets,
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: and we hit the same percentage. Just, you know, I
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: don't know, man. I like being selective, and I like
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: being tight aggressive. You know what I mean? That's how
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: I used to play poker as well. Or if I
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: still play poker, I do still play it that way, right? Like...
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: You want to be aggressive, but only when you're in
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: a good spot to do so. You know what I'm saying?
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: So that's what I do. Oh, right. You have UFC.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: I pay no attention to the UFC. So, yes. All right.
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: I got to get through these games, man. But that
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: was the London game. I leave Philadelphia plus the points.
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: Chicago at Green Bay as we get into the 1 p.m.
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: slate here. Chicago's favored at Green Bay. And I believe
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: that Chicago has not been favored in a game at
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: Green Bay for a I want to say decades, probably.
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: So this is... Maybe we're getting a little bit out
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: of control with Chicago being a road favorite here. And
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: I tend to lean towards divisional home underdogs. And maybe
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: that is the way to go here. I mean, Chicago...
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: I think they're just getting a little bit overhyped. I
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: think it is Tyson Bajent again in this game. And
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: let me look at their depth chart real quick. I
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: think it'll be Bajent in his second game here. Williams
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: is actually questionable. But... Yeah, I mean, he was limited,
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: so I guess there's a chance Williams plays. But I
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: think I'm going to lean Green Bay either way. You know,
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: I talk about the injured player theory spot, where I
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: think if Williams comes back, Chicago's been winning without him,
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: I think they'll feel pretty comfortable, like, oh, we can
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: take our foot off the gas now that our starting
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: quarterback is coming back, whatever. You tend to get a
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: little bit more complacent, whatever. So if it's Williams coming back,
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: I actually kind of like Green Bay a little bit more.
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: to be honest, and I know I'm on record saying
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: I think Bajan is actually a better quarterback than Williams,
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: but because of the reverse injured player spot, if Williams
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: comes back, the line's going to move a little bit
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: towards Chicago, and I think he'll get extra value on
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: Green Bay, and I like Green Bay if that happens,
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: but I like Green Bay in this game anyway, because
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: I just think they've looked like the uglier team so far,
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: and I still think they can play enough defense in
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: this game to... get the job done here like you're
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: still looking green bay's still the better defense over chicago
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: okay chicago's defense is not good chicago's coming up a
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: win over the jets i mean they beat the hapless
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: eagles the week before that that eagles team something not
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: right there even though i do lean towards them to
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: cover against jacksonville but the bears yeah they beat me
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: last week i know it was a bad spot for
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: the bears we took the jets chicago still won Bajent
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: beat me. I'm okay with getting beaten by Bajent. I'm
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: not okay with getting beaten by Caleb Williams. But yeah,
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: I'm still going to lean towards Green Bay. Chicago hasn't
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: played a road game since week one, and yes, I
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: know they won the game against Garrett's Panthers, but still...
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: this is going to be the most difficult road game
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: Chicago's had to face this year. And it is double
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: revenge for the Packers. Because you remember, Packers, first of all,
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: it's a huge playoff revenge spot for the Packers. And
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: I think that matters. Because you know, you remember who
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: ended your season. And the way the Packers lost that game.
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: And it was a loss for me on the show, too.
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: Packers totally blew that game. They had the game completely
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: under control, if you remember that, in that game and
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: blew the game. I believe that game was at Chicago. But, yeah,
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: so the Packers have a major revenge spot for that
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: reason because they definitely remember the Bears ended their season.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: And the Packers did the same thing in the last
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: regular season matchup against Chicago as well, which I believe
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: was in Green Bay, I want to say. So the
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: last time they played in Lambeau, the Packers did the
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: same thing. They had the lead most of the game,
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: and then they blew it late. And I think there were,
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: I don't know, there was some freak occurrence near the end.
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: It might have been an onside kick recovery or something,
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: some real bullshit. went on in that game. And I
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: don't remember if that was a play for me or
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: not on the show, but yeah, Packers have playoff revenge
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: and double revenge here. I'm leaning to the Packers regardless
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: of what happens. I guess you could wait on this
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: to see if Caleb Williams is going to come back
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: because if he does, you'll probably get a little bit of, uh,
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: you'll get a little bit of extra line value on
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: green Bay. If that does happen as of right now,
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: it looks like that's not going to happen because the
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: line dropped from two and a half to one and
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: a half on Chicago. So that seems to me to
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: indicate that Williams is not going to play here. Um,
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: because he's still got his groin pull, man. You know,
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: say what you want about that. He's a man who's
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: into some activity that probably will result in pulling his groin,
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: let's just say. But yeah, I would take the one
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: and a half points with Green Bay. The money's coming
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: in on Chicago, though. 67% of tickets, 87% of the
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: cash on them. I just, I don't agree with it
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: in that case. You know, I don't know. There'll be
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: certain situations where I don't agree with the market, and
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: that is one of them. average yeah average white men
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: uh the big unit hurts randy johnson you mean um
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: yeah i mean he probably does have a big unit
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: to be honest i mean he's sick what is he
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: 6 10 something like that yeah 6 11 uh yeah
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: all right uh houston at tennessee on cbs this is
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: ridiculous man Two 0-4 teams going at it, and Houston
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: is a touchdown favorite as an 0-4 team. You got
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: to be kidding me, man. And I don't remember exactly
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: what the number was, but I heard that there, I
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: think there have been like six teams that are 0-4
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: to be favored, like in the point spread era or whatever.
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: And I think all of them failed to cover or
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: something like that. So the history is not on Houston's
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: side in this game as far as the fact that
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: they're 0-4 in their favorite, even though you'd think, you know,
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: knowing what I say about games like this, you'd think
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: that I'd be looking at it and saying, oh, well,
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: two 0-4 teams, yet the oddsmakers are still telling you
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: this Houston team is the better team. They are, you know, Houston,
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: if they don't win this game, you know, it's completely
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: over for them. Houston, I believe they have enough division
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: games left that maybe they could still somehow claw their
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: way back into this. And I believe last year they
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: were their own three to start the season last year,
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure. And they came back and made the playoffs.
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to say they're going to do that here.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: I'm not even going to lean towards Houston against the
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: spread in this one, man. I just would not lay
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: these points with an 0-14 that has not shown you
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: that they can get it done. Their defense has been
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: way worse than expected this year. C.J. Stroud, I think
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: his rookie season was a flash in the pan, man.
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: I think it was just they took the league by surprise,
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: and once the league had a year of footage on him,
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: It was over. He's never been good since then. So
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: I don't think Houston's offense is good enough to cover
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: a number like this. And the total is ridiculously low
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: at 37.5. So do you want to lay a touchdown
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: with a divisional road team with a total that's one
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: of the lowest that we've seen since preseason? I don't.
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: So I think if you're going to play this game,
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: I would take the points with Tennessee. I don't want
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: to do it, but I don't want to play this
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: game at all. But yeah, 65% of the tickets, 57%
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Houston. So the money is indicating
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: towards Tennessee in this one. Houston's still a little bit
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: of a public side here. Public seems to still believe
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: in Houston. And what I will say, though, is, I mean,
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on with my NOS over here.
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: It's beeping at me here. Something going on over there.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: I'm having some huge problems with it. But anyway, Houston,
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: they face some good offenses, okay? So you got to
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: at least give them that. They faced a somewhat difficult schedule.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: They had to face Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. They
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: lost to the Colts, which isn't really that good. But
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: then they did have to face the Cowboys, which they're
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: at least a good offense to. I thought Houston would
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: turn it around and win that game. They didn't. But
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: now that Houston is coming off of that game, that
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: was kind of a big game, high-flying game. I thought
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: it was bigger for Houston, really, to be honest. And
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: the fact that Houston failed to beat their in-state bigger brother, basically,
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: in the Cowboys and fell just short in that game.
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: Now they're going to swing around, go back out on
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: the road, and they do have the Jags next, like
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: I said, which that's actually going to be a London
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: game as well, I'm pretty sure. So the Jags, keep
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: that in mind. The Jags, I think the Jags do
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: this every year. They're going to stay in London over
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: next week and then play a second London game. So
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: I think that will be a big edge for Jacksonville
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: next week. because they won't have to travel, and they'll
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: already be adjusted to the time zone, so keep that
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: in mind for the Jags next week against Houston, but
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: Houston might look ahead to that game, and Tennessee, I mean,
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: they did okay against Baltimore last week. I know Lamar
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: Jackson got hurt. Tennessee wasn't as good as it looked.
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: They got like a cosmetic late touchdown after they were down,
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: I think, 24 to 10 or something late in the game,
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: and I think they got a touchdown and a two-point conversion,
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: which people will argue with me on this, and I
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: think they're idiots to do so, but When you're down
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: two touchdowns late in a game and you score a touchdown,
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: you're supposed to go for two. That's what the math says.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: Because you want to give yourself a better chance of
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: winning the game. And part of that is increasing your
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: chance of winning in regulation.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: So.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: That's why you do it, because you get two chances
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: to get the two-point conversion, pretty much. And, you know,
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: if you make one of the two at worst, it's
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: going to still just be tied and go into overtime,
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: if you get what I'm saying. Go look up what
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: the math guys say on that. But, yeah, normally, I mean,
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't really, I mean, I'm not playing this game anyway,
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: but I wouldn't really want Tennessee coming off kind of
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: a close call-ish game. against the Ravens, but even so,
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: I mean, we're talking about two 0-4 teams here, so
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: I think both teams are going to get up for this.
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: I just think it's going to be an ugly game
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: with not a lot of offense, and getting points is
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: just probably the way to look in a game like that.
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: Divisional home dog again also. So yeah, lean Tennessee in
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: that one. Try to get the 7 if you do
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: want to play that. Cincinnati at Miami. I'm going to
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: lean to the two, not a divisional home dog, but
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: I'm going to lean to the home dog in this
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: one too, even though Cincinnati did play better than it
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: looks against the Jags. And we do have to see
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: what's going on with Cincinnati's wide receivers, especially me and fantasy.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: Cause I have T Higgins and fantasy. He did practice
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: today or excuse me yesterday. So it looks like Higgins
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: is actually going to play, um, Jamar chase missed the
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: last game and they're both listed as questionable right now. Um,
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: Chase is still in concussion protocol, so I don't even
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: know if he practiced, but Higgins did practice on Friday
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: after not practicing the rest of the week, so I
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: think Higgins is going to play. I don't know if
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: Chase is, so keep all that in mind for Cincinnati,
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: but for Cincinnati, they're coming off kind of a big
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: game against the Jaguars. Two big games in a row, really.
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: Steelers and Jags, both games are pretty close, and look
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: who they have next, man. The Baltimore Ravens, that's a
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: big game. So Cincinnati might be looking ahead to their
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: division rival, the Ravens. They might overlook the Miami Dolphins here, man.
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: An 0-4 Dolphin team. Dolphins have only had one home
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: game so far, man. And they played okay in that
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: game against the Chiefs. I know they lost by 14,
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: but that was a one-score game in the fourth quarter.
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: So I think Miami should have covered that game. I'm
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: going to lean to Miami in this one. I know
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: Miami had kind of a close call as a big
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: underdog last week against A Minnesota offense that is complete ass, dude.
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: I'm telling you. I'm going to say it again when
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: I get to Minnesota's game here. But yeah, for Miami,
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: normally I would not want to play on a team
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: coming off a close call as a huge underdog here.
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: But when their own four at home, and I think
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: the Bengals might be in a look ahead. I think
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: if you're going to play this game, I think Miami
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: is the right side here. Getting 7 or 7.5 even
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: on this. You might be able to find a 7.5
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: again once we get into tomorrow. The public is definitely
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: playing the Bengals in this one. 79% of the tickets
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: and only 71% of the cash on them. So, yeah,
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: it looks like the market read is agreeing with me
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: on that. I would take the points with Miami in
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: that one. Next game at 1 p.m., CBS, Raiders at Patriots.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: Both teams are in bad spots dude like after last
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: week I was like gosh damn it because I wanted
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: to fade both teams coming into this week but it's
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: like oh crap they're playing each other because the Raiders
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: they lost their undefeated season last week which of course
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: we didn't expect them to go undefeated they're the Raiders
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: but they had another big game man they had chances
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: to win that game against the Chiefs and they blew
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: it fell just short. Now they've got to travel all
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: the way to the Eastern time zone for the first
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: time this year. So this is definitely a negative spot
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: for the Raiders. And you know what I keep talking about.
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: When a team like the Raiders, when they're expected to
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: lose like they were to the Chiefs, big underdog. The
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: Chiefs are one of their biggest, that's one of the
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: games they get up for the most. You know what
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: I mean? Trying to beat them. the chiefs uh the
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: team that pretty much wins this division almost every single
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: year so that was a huge game for the raiders
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: and to fall just short and at the same time
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: take their first loss of the season which i think
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: that can hang you over too I think it's a
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: bad spot for the Raiders for sure. And yeah, they
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: got to go East to play a game. It's going
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: to be at 10 PM. Oh good. My NOS actually booted.
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: There we go. I don't know if you guys could
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: hear that or not. Um, so the Raiders are definitely
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: in a bad spot, although I do think it's a
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: little bit overrated how, um, when a West coast team
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: goes East to play a 1 PM game, everybody talks
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: about how negative that is. I think that's a little
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: bit overrated, but it is still somewhat negative. I would say,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: but you know me, I like, I think the East
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: Coast team going out West is worse because it's late
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: on your biological clock. I think it's early to play
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: early on your biological clock. I think it's better. It's earlier. No,
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: I think it's better to play early on your biological clock. Anyway,
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: I don't want New England either because they are coming
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: off that nice upset of the Bills. That was a
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: big win for them. But less travel for New England here.
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: And remember, New England... I wasn't sure that I would
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: say that this matters, but maybe it does. Remember, week
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: one of the season last year, New England lost at
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: home to the Raiders, and I believe they've lost three
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: games in a row to the Raiders, if I'm not mistaken.
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: But New England, they're going to remember that because they
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: had so few losses last year, and One of their
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: only home, I think they only had two home losses.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: And by the way, the other one was against the Steelers,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure. And oh yeah, what did New England
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: do in their only other home game this year so far?
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: They got revenge against the Steelers. So I think New
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: England is going to show up for this game. They
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: remember what the Raiders did to them last year. Reed Harden,
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: what's up? You agree with the Patriots? Yes, I'm going
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: to lean to the Patriots in this one, but I
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: think both teams are in a bad spot. So it's
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: kind of like, you know, you forced me to have
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: to give a side on this one. I think the
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: spot is worse for the Raiders than it is for
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: the Patriots. Let's put it that way. And I think
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: maybe you could come up with at least some positives
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: for New England, like the revenge spot. 56% of tickets,
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: 67% of the cash on New England. So the money
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: seems to agree with me on this. The line's three
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: and a half and it basically hasn't moved. Patriots are favored.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: And by the way, it is a situation where you
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: have the team with the worst record New England is
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: laying points. So sometimes I consider that to be an
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: indicator as well. Like, you know, because I think the
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: public's tendency is going to be, oh, I want to
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: take the points with the three in one team, right?
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: Oh my God, the only loss for the Raiders is
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: to the Chiefs. which, yeah, is true, but the Raiders
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: have faced an easy schedule, man. I mean, they beat
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: Miami in week one, and then the Raiders, they played
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: some other really bad team, right? They won against the
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: Saints because the Saints couldn't stop turning the ball over. Oh, yeah,
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: and then the other win the Raiders had was against
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: the Chargers, who are winless still right now. So there
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: you go. That's their resume here. Are the Chargers finally
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: going to win? You got to wait to see what
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: I think about that game, man. When I get to it,
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: that is later in the show. Minnesota at New Orleans.
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: This game almost made the cut for me, man. You
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: know what I'm going to say about this game already. Minnesota.
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: They're one of the most fraudulent 4-0 teams that I've
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: ever seen, dude. Their defense is good, fine. Their special
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: teams has been good as well. Their offense is... I
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: believe their offense in many, many metrics is last in
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: the NFL. This Minnesota offense is horrific, dude. And I
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: know Kyler Murray missed a couple games or whatever. He's
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: still not a good quarterback. This Minnesota offense blows. They
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: only put up 15 points against the Dolphins, and I know...
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: Hawkinson or whatever, like, you know, he basically went down
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: with it to run the clock out at the end.
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: Everybody was saying it was rigged. I'm like, whatever, you're
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: a fool if you laid that many points on Minnesota
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: last week, man. I'm sorry. But I'm still not impressed
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: with Minnesota's resume at all, dude. They've beaten two teams
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: that started out 0-4. The Buccaneers, I was going to
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: call them winless, but they've won a game now. Minnesota
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: got out-gained by the Buccaneers, by the way, and as
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: I'm going to point out again, I've pointed it out already,
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: Minnesota did not even run a snap in the red
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: zone in that game, and they still beat the Buccaneers.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: Misleading result there. Minnesota was not the better team in
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: that game. They had an ugly low-scoring game against the
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: injured Bears team. Well, I guess Williams got injured later
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: in that game, but whatever. And then they got massively
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: outgained by the Packers in Week 1. Somehow had a
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: very misleading win in that one despite getting out-gamed by
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: 200 yards there. And then last week they barely beat
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: the Dolphins. So no, I'm not buying this 4-0 start
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: for Minnesota at all. They're going back out on the
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: road here to face the Saints. Third road game in
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: four weeks for Minnesota, by the way. That's a lot
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: of travel. That's not easy. And you're going to notice
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: this is basically a pick-the-winner price here on this game.
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: And Minnesota's 4-0 and New Orleans is 1-3. So who...
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: is going to play New Orleans in this game, right?
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: The public is going to want nothing to do with that.
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: The public is going to be all over Minnesota. Well,
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: 63% of the tickets are on Minnesota here. But the
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: real money, I am pretty sure, is on the Saints here.
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: 55% of the cash on the Saints. The number's about
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: one and a half or two here. Again, it's basically
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: pick the winner. It looks way too easy to take
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: Minnesota here, man. I would not do it. And I
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: think the Saints have a misleading record, man. I mean,
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: they played a difficult schedule. They almost beat the Lions
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: in Detroit in week one, which is not easy to do.
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: They took them into overtime. Then they did upset the Ravens.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: The Ravens only loss, I think, was that game. New
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: Orleans went into Baltimore and beat them. Then, like I said,
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: New Orleans threw the game away against the Raiders with
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: four straight turnovers in the fourth quarter. Misleading result. And
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: I know I used all that as a reason to
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: play New Orleans on Monday night. I get it. They
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: were bad in that game. I'm not going to, you know,
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: like I'm not going to say otherwise. They got outplayed
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: in that game by the Falcons. There's no doubt about that.
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: But now New Orleans is in a spot where, yes,
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: I know they're on a short week or whatever, but
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: they looked horrible on Monday night.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: No.
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: No public better is going to want to play a
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: team that looked that bad on a public stage like
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: that in prime time. Nobody's going to want New Orleans here.
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: But I'm telling you, this is mostly a fade of
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: the Vikings, though. Although I am still telling you New
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: Orleans is not as bad as the record indicates. New
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: Orleans still has the better offense here I'm not going
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: to claim they have the better defense because they don't
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: but I think New Orleans is at least a more
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: balanced team here and their resume is way more impressive
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: than Minnesota's New Orleans is the right side here and
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: this is probably going in my contest entry where I
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: have to pick five games against the spread I'm going
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: to have three that I give out as plays here
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: I think New Orleans is going to be one of
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: the ones that I add to that card not to
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: my card here but to my contest entry because I
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: have to Be a little bit looser with it. Damn
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: straight about what? I don't care. The Saints offensive line, whatever.
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: I don't give a fuck. Minnesota is shit, dude. I
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: don't care. Minnesota's going to have to score some points
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: to actually win this game. So, yeah, good luck with that.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: New Orleans is definitely the right side in that game.
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: But it does not make the cut for me. It's
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: not my strongest play. And, in fact, I think the
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: strongest play is this next game, Cleveland at the New
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: York Jets. Yeah, this is going to be a play
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: for me. Now that I think people are all of
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: a sudden, they think Cleveland is actually good. I'm going
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: to tell you right now, they're not. We're going to
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: play the New York Jets in this game. Minus two,
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: or it might be one and a half at some point.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, it was one and a half, I guess,
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: when it opened. Although there's not much of a difference
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: between one and a half and two. This looks like
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: it's going to be an ugly game. Money's coming in
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: on the under. It's a 39, 39 and a half total. Whatever.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: We know this is an ugly game, dude. But I
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: think the public all of a sudden kind of thinks
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: Cleveland might actually not be that bad. And they're all
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: over Cleveland in this game, actually. 82% of the tickets
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: are on Cleveland. Who would ever think that? 82% of
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: the tickets are on Cleveland. You got to give me
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: a fucking break here, man. The 3-1 Cleveland Browns, yeah, okay.
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: They're still the Cleveland Browns, dude. They're not this good
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: at all. 80% of the cash, by the way, on Cleveland.
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: So less of the cash than the ticket percentage is. Yeah,
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, we're fading the public here in this one.
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: There's no doubt about it. This Cleveland team, they're also
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: in a horrific spot here. They're coming off what's basically
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: their Super Bowl every year. Thursday night, they beat the Steelers.
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: What else is new? As I've already said, Cleveland, I
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: think they've now won five straight home games against the Steelers.
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: So I wouldn't put that much weight into that win.
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: And they keep winning on Thursday night. Stefanski was like me.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: He was Mr. Thursday night. And by the way, I
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: think I am four and one. With my Thursday night
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: spread plays. Whether you pick the Wednesday prime game. Or
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: the Thursday Netflix game in week one. I got both
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: of those right against the spread too. So pick your
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: boys in there. But I'll give myself a four and one.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: And pick whichever one of those two you want there. Anyway.
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: Stefanski was really good on Thursday night. For whatever reason
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: with Cleveland. And he won again with the Falcons. On
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: Thursday night. So what I'm saying is that Cleveland is.
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: Used to winning on Thursday night. But I think it is.
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: pretty predictable that Cleveland they they get up for this
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: game against the Steelers and then I think they usually
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: have a letdown the week after that and I think
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: that's what's going to happen here uh they have to
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: go back out on the road where they're only one
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: and one on the road by the way and their
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: only win was the upset of the Buccaneers where the
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: Buccaneers were marching down the field uh to win the
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: game potentially at the end and then there was a
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: lightning delay that ruined the game in my opinion and
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: then a bad holding call and I'm pissed because I
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: got eliminated from Survivor on that. But yeah, whatever. And
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: then Cleveland's other game, they got massacred by the Jaguars
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: on the road. Now, I understand Deshaun Watson's playing all right.
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: I told you he was their best quarterback. But he's
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: still not this good. And now I think this is
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: a letdown spot for Cleveland because that is still a
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: huge game for them whenever they play the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: That's one of their biggest games of the season every year.
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: It's their Super Bowl when they get them, especially at home.
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: Now they have to go back out on the road.
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: And who do they play next? Oh, yeah, the Baltimore Ravens.
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: So I know I said Cincinnati also plays the Ravens next.
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: I think Cincinnati has a bye next week or something.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: Cleveland literally has to play the Ravens next week. So
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: that's a sandwich spot if I've ever seen one, man.
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: Sandwiched in between your divisional foes, the Steelers and the Ravens.
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: This spot is horrible. And the Jets are laying points here.
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: The public is never going to want to do that.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: The Jets, the public doesn't like the Jets anyway, but
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: they're 1-3, yet they're the favorite over the 3-1 team.
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? So I love finding spots
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: like this where it looks like a trap line, like
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: a misleading line where the public is not going to
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: want to play. team that I'm going to play here,
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: and we're fading a team that's in a massive sandwich spot. Yeah,
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: everything looks great to me about the Jets here, man,
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: and the Jets have not been that bad. If you
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: look at their season resume, they beat the Titans fine,
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: but then they played the Packers close. They played the
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: Lions close, and then I know last week we tried
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: to play them, and I made that argument, and they
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: lost to the Bears. I get it. They had a
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: bad game in that game. I understand. It was a
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: third road game in four weeks, though, and Guess who
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: the Browns are not, by the way? They're not the
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: NFC North. And guess what the Jets' record is this
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: year against teams that are not in the NFC North? 1-0.
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: The Jets are undefeated playing teams that are not in
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: the NFC North. Okay? They've played three teams in the
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: NFC North already, and those are their three losses.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: So.
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: Jets are back to playing an AFC opponent and a
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: pretty bad one. Let's be real about this. The Browns
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: are not for real, okay? Those motherfuckers are not real.
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: The Browns are, you know, I mean... Like I said,
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: going into the season, I thought the Browns would be
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: better than people thought they would be, but they're still
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: not a good team. And I thought the Jets would
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: also be better than people thought they would be. But yes,
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: this is absolutely a play for me. The Jets... We'll
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: take the Jets here. I mean... I think the jets
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: are pretty comparable to Cleveland, man. I think you can
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: make the argument that jets have the better offense here, um,
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: with Gino and company there. I mean, they got some
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: good offensive weapons better than Cleveland, I would say. And
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: the jets defense is still fairly solid as well. Cleveland's
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: is as well. I know, but yeah, uh, I think it's,
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: you know, I think the, the defenses are kind of
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: comparable and the jets have the better offense. Um, bucks
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: got screwed. Yeah, they did in that game. Um, Right.
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: Cleveland does not rock. I don't know what kind of sandwich.
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: Between Pittsburgh and Baltimore, what kind of sandwich would that be?
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: I don't know. It's like a half... Primanti Brothers sandwich
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: and half, I don't know, what the fuck sandwiches do
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: they even eat in Baltimore? Crab cake? I have no
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: fucking clue. Does Primanti Brothers make a crab cake sandwich?
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: That's what this is. It's a crab cake sandwich with
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: french fries on it, okay? That might actually taste alright.
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't be opposed to trying that. That's what that is,
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: that sandwich. Next game up is another play, so I'm
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: just going to continue the best bets segment. Indianapolis at Pittsburgh. Yeah,
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: let's go with this one. We are going to lay
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: the points to the Pittsburgh Steelers, minus two and a
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: half here. They have extra time off here, and I
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: know Cleveland also does, but I think it's a negative
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: for Cleveland. Like I talk about with like a buy
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: and whatever. When a team's coming off a big win
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: and they have extra time off, I think it's a
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: negative because I think they just kind of let that
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: win simmer and it makes them a little bit more
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: overconfident and whatever and they don't really have anything to fix. Whereas,
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: If a team lost that game like Pittsburgh did, I
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: think they used that extra time to fix some shit.
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: So that's what Pittsburgh's going to be doing here. But
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: not only that, but Pittsburgh's catching Indianapolis, returning home from
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: London here. And teams used to always have a bye
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: when they came back from London. Occasionally, a team would
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: request to not have a bye. And I think those
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: teams actually did pretty well. But since... the buys basically
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: just stopped happening for these London teams. The teams coming
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: back from London have been really bad over the last
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: couple of years, so I had to stop playing them
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: with the thought that I was thinking that those teams
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: would be undervalued a lot of the time, but that's
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: just not the case anymore. Recently, I think every team
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: returning from London last year was pretty terrible, so we're
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: going to do it again here. We're going to fade
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: Indianapolis here. Indianapolis just won in London. They looked really
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: good against Washington. They blew them out. But if you
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: look at the scoreboard, by the way, this is Washington
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: without Jaden Daniels, by the way. And Mariota got hurt
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: in the game, too. So it was Washington with Kaliak Manas,
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: the Greek whatever the hell you want. The Greek freak. No.
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: Giannis was in the game for them.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: No.
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: Kaliak Manas. He didn't do that well. Let's put it
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: that way. And yeah, so Indy got kind of a
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: break here that they got to face Washington down to
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: their third string quarterback. Would Indy have lost this game otherwise? No,
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: probably not. But it was a misleading result, dude. Washington
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: actually outgained Indy in this game, believe it or not,
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: even though Indy massacred them on the scoreboard. Yeah, Washington
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: outgained them in the game, but they were bad in
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: the red zone. They got held to some field goals, whatever.
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: So I think it's a misleading result for Indy. It
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: was a Public game that, you know, if people were
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: awake then, they watched that game and they saw Indy
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: get that win. Indy's hot right now. Beat Houston and
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: then blowout win over Washington. But like I said, misleading win.
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: Now the public, they're going to be on the Indy
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: side in this one. Indy does have the Titans next.
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that really matters. It's a divisional
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: game at least. But yeah, I think Indy's going to
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: be in trouble going into this game against the Steelers, man.
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: Coming back from London, they got to readjust time zones here.
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: Steelers have extra rest coming off a loss. where the
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: Steelers are going to be angry off of that loss.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: And the Colts only have one other actual road game
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: this year. And yes, I know they played well, and
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: we got a win with that one on the show
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: with the Colts covering against the Chiefs. I know, but
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs were in a letdown spot coming up that
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: huge win over Denver in week one, which was also
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: a win for us on the show, by the way.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: So that was a good spot to play Indy. This
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: is absolutely not a good spot to play. And this
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: is a good spot to play the Pittsburgh Steelers to
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: bounce back here. By the way, the Steelers are 2-0
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: at home. I know they beat the injured Falcons in
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: Week 1 fine, whatever. We can throw that out. But
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh beat the Bengals here at home as well. So
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: I think they should be able to beat the Colts
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: at home as well. And if I'm not mistaken, Pittsburgh
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: absolutely wrecked Indy when they were here at home last year,
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: which I know you might argue, well, that means Indy's
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: going to be in a.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: You know, in a revenge spot, I just don't think so. Like,
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: a middle-of-the-season game where you lost that game... I don't
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: see that being the case, unless this was the game
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: where Daniel Jones got hurt. It was not. I don't
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: remember which game Daniel Jones got hurt in, but yeah,
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: it was not the Daniel Jones injury game here. Although
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: Indy did actually win the game statistically, though, so I
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: guess that worries me a little bit. Yeah, that was
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: the game where Indy had six turnovers in the game,
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: and that's why Pittsburgh wound up winning the game, so
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: maybe that worries me a little bit that Indy actually...
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: beat them in that game pretty soundly, but this Indy
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: team doesn't look to be the same as they were
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: last year. I don't know, Daniel Jones coming off of
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: that long injury, it seems like he's still kind of
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: getting up to speed here, and some of his wide
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: receivers are injured and whatever as well. But this is
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: a spot play, more or less. It's about the situation.
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: We're getting the extra rest, and we're catching a team
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: that looked way better than they were last week in
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: a pretty high-profile game in London. and having to do
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: all this travel. So yeah, Indy's slightly public here. 52%
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: of the tickets, 58% of the cash on Pittsburgh though.
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: And Pittsburgh is favored for a reason. Uh, you know,
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: it's about two and a half, three of the odds
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: makers basically telling you that these teams are about even
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: in the power ratings here. We'll lay the points with Pittsburgh, uh,
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: undefeated at home so far. I think if they win,
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: they should cover that. So let's do that. Meaty, uh,
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: you're a Seahawks fan. I don't know what to think
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: about that. Um, I mean, I have to talk about
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: that game, but that game, that's one of the hardest
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: games to figure out out of this whole slate. The
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: Giants are at Washington, the last of the 1 p.m. games.
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: There aren't that many 4 p.m. Eastern games this time
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: because we're into the bye weeks now, man. We have
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: Kansas City and Carolina are in byes this week. So
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: this is the first bye week of the season. Sometimes
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: it's week four, but this year it's week five. So,
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: I don't know, keep that in mind, I guess, that
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: those teams will be coming out of buys coming into
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: next week. And it'll probably be a negative for Kansas City,
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: because they went into the buy 4-0. The Mariners, yeah, which...
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: Are the Mariners still the only team to not make
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: a World Series? I believe that's the case. Sorry, I
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: don't want to rub it in or anything, but yeah,
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think that is the case. Yeah, man,
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: it blows. And then you got a... hockey team that
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: plays in a gay arena, but I'm rooting for you
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: to get the Seattle Supersonics back, man. Dude, I loved
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: the Sonics branding back in the day. I had a
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: Sean Kemp jersey and whatever. You got to get the
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: Seattle Supersonics back, man. Do it. Bring back the Sonics. Anyway,
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: Giants at Washington. The first thing that I noticed when
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: I looked at this game was, well, Washington is like
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: a three and a half point favorite here, even though
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: they're one and three and the Giants are three and one.
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: So that should catch your eye. You know what I mean? Like,
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: why is the one and three team favored over the
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: three and one team? And well, part of the reason
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: is Jaden Daniels is coming back in this game. He
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: is going to play. He's going to be back here. Now, normally,
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: you know, I like to fade teams in that spot.
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: And so you might be saying, well, you know, why
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: am I not fading Washington here? And there's like, why
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: do I not want to fade Washington here? If Jaden
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: Daniels is coming back from injury, right? So usually I
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: say that's the reverse injured player spot and the team,
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: you know, might take their foot off the gas a
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: little bit or whatever. And he has to work his
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: way back and whatever. And you might And you're not
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: going to get as much value on that team. You
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? Normally. But in this game, I
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: don't really think that's the case. Like, Washington being a
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: three and a half point favorite seems very reasonable to me.
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: So I think you're actually... I think there's not... I
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: think Washington's not overvalued, despite the fact that Jaden Daniels
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: is coming back. With this number, I don't actually think
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: they're being overvalued here. I think that the start to
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: the season is actually skewing the perception of these two teams,
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: and I actually think Washington is still the better team here,
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: even though their defense is not good. We're talking about
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: a Giants team that doesn't have Jackson Dart here. So
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean? This is a Giants team
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: with Jameis Winston, and I know they've won their last
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: two games, but who did they beat? They beat the
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: Tennessee Titans and the Arizona Cardinals. And if you look
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: at the game against the Cardinals, I think it was
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: a little bit misleading as well. It was a close
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: game statistically. Um, yeah, fairly close at least. And it
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: was just a, an injury or Susie, a turnover riddled game.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: And it was just kind of a weird game where
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: the giants pulled away late. I'm glad I was right
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: about the giant. So they also had a pick six,
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: by the way, that went all the way back. Like
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: Arizona was about to score a touchdown to potentially win
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: this game late in the game. They threw a 98
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: yard pick six that went the other way. And that's
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: how the Giants sealed the deal there. So that game
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: wasn't exactly what it looked like. And as I already
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: pointed out, Washington's loss to the Colts in London. which
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: everybody saw Washington get annihilated in that game. But I
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: told you, they were down to their third-string quarterback, and
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: they still actually outgained Indy in that game. So that
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: game was not what it looked like on the scoreboard.
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: So I actually lean Washington in this game, believe it
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: or not. The 1-3 favorite over the 3-1 team here,
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: even though I know Washington's coming back from London. But
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: I think it's not as bad if they played real
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: bad in London. Plus, Jaden Daniels, I'm guessing he... I
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: don't know. Did he travel with the team? I was
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: going to say I'm guessing maybe he just stayed here.
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: I don't know. But Washington will have to adjust to
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: the time zone, sure. But I don't know, man. Yeah,
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: to me, I think Washington is the better team here.
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: They're going to be desperate here. Yeah, I would lean
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: towards Washington in this one, at least for now. New
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: York looks like they're public here, of course, because why
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: wouldn't they be, right? The public's going to jump on
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: the 3-1 team. Oh my God, the 3-1 team against
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: the 1-3 team is getting points. Oh, 72% of the tickets,
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: although 84% of the cash on the Giants as well.
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I really buy that, but I
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: think this is going to be a... I think the
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: Giants are a public underdog, though, pretty much. And you
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: know I warn against public underdogs, so I actually lean
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: Washington in this game, minus the 3.5. I think it's
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: actually a cheap price, even though I don't want a
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: team returning home from London, really, and I don't really
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: want a team with their starting quarterback coming back either,
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: but I think it's a little bit different again because
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: they haven't been winning. If the team is winning... with
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: their backup quarterback in there, then, yeah, they might get
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: complacent and think, oh, we're winning with our backup. Of
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: course we're going to win with our starter. But if
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: this team is not winning at all, they're not going
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: to take the Giants lightly here. You know what I mean?
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: They're going to show up for this game because they're
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: 1-3 right now. So it doesn't matter if Daniels is
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: back or not. Washington has to win. You know what
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: I mean? They cannot afford to be losing here. So
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: they're not going to get complacent.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: So, yeah.
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Sean Kemp fucked. Winston is not going to be
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: eating wins after this game, dude. He's not that good.
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: Even though, yes, I do hate Washington's defense. There's no
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: doubt about that. But, yeah. Burns is hurt for the Giants, though,
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: by the way. So, Giants' best defensive player is injured
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: for the season. So, that will hurt their defense at
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: least a little bit. Meaty with the, what is that,
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: a turkey leg? What are we talking about here? I
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: don't know. But, Also, I do agree that the Giants
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: do have the better coach, though, with Harbaugh. I don't
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: think Dan Quinn is really that good, but whatever. I
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: think Washington is the side to lean in that game,
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: but it's not a play for me or anything like that.
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: My last play is going to be in the Sunday
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: night game for those keeping track, but I will be
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: talking about Denver and the Chargers at L.A. on CBS,
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: 4 or 5 p.m. Eastern as we get into the
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: 4 p.m. slate here. You probably know what I'm going
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: to say about this, even though you guys did ask
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: me about this earlier in the show. I forget who asked.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: Mr.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: Penzi asked. I don't like Denver in this game, okay?
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: I would not lay the points with them, I'll tell
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: you that. Denver, second straight road game here. They just
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: played pretty tough at the 49ers, man. That was a
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: close game. It was a three-point game late, and then
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: the Niners scored a touchdown late to make it a
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: ten-point game. But it was a tough battle, man, a
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: three-point game. That was a big game for Denver against
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: an undefeated Niners team. you know, having to go into
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: San Francisco for that. Now they turn around and they
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: play the Chargers, which normally, yeah, this would be a
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: big divisional game, but it's going to be way bigger
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: for the Chargers because Denver, you know, I mean, this
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: is an 0-4 Chargers team, so it's going to be
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: pretty easy to take them lightly at this point. And
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: Denver does have the Super Bowl champs. On a quick turnaround,
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: by the way, on Thursday, Denver has to play the
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: Seahawks on Thursday. So do you think Denver might have
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: one eye looking ahead? Because they're sandwiched in between the
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: Niners and the Seahawks, who are actually two of the
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: top teams in the league right now. And they've got
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: this 0-4 Chargers team in here, even though it is
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: a divisional game. I don't know, man. And I know
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: Denver's 0-1 in the division right now. And, you know,
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: that is one of the tiebreakers. But still, I could
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: see them maybe getting caught here, man. The quick turnaround time,
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: the look ahead to a Thursday game, that is real.
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? And with it being the
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl champs, maybe they are looking ahead to that. So, yeah.
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: Crab legs? What are you talking about? Oh, Winston with
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: the chicken legs? Winston's thing was the crab legs, right?
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: Like Reed Harder was talking about. He steals crab legs. Yeah, yeah. Yeah,
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: so I think this is kind of a questionable spot
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: for Denver here. You know you're going to get an
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: effort out of the Chargers, and I know I've been
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: saying that the last couple weeks. Chargers were not that
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: good against the Seahawks last week. The Chargers did score
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: late to cut into that number a little bit. Seahawks
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: were winning that game 30-13, and then I think the
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: Seahawks took their foot off the gas, and the Chargers
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: came back. But the Chargers, they did actually out-game the
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: Seahawks in that game, man. Chargers had a lot of
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: turnovers there, which definitely affected the game. So the Chargers
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: actually played better in this game than it looks like.
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: They actually out-gamed the Seahawks in that game. So the Chargers...
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: I still don't think they're as bad as they look, man.
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: The rushing attack is coming around. I think they're starting
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: to play a little bit better. I would only play
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: the Chargers in this game if I was going to
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: do anything with it. You're getting a divisional home dog
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: in total desperation mode. That's the way I would look here.
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: In Denver, with a questionable spot, like I already said,
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: Denver will be the public side here, although right now
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: it looks like 58% of the tickets, 59% of the
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: cash on them. But again, I think you are fading
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: the public if you take the Chargers here. I think
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: that's pretty obvious. You get the hook, too. You get
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: three and a half here, and it's not a high
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: total either. It's in the low 40s. So points might
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: be at a bit of a premium in this one.
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: I am kind of seeing this being a low-scoring, close-ish
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: game here. Yeah, Chargers, I think they have a chance
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: to win. Yeah, so I would lean to the Chargers
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: in that game, plus the points. And if they cover,
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: there's a decent chance they're going to be winning, so...
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: Next two games are, I think, the most difficult to
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: actually figure out here. Detroit and Arizona, I have no
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: fucking clue what to do with this game. Detroit is
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: having to go out to Arizona, but, of course, it's
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: not a night game, at least for them, so that
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: should be a little bit easier. Detroit didn't look good
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: on Sunday night against the Panthers, and they lost that game.
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: I was correct about that game, but usually, I want
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: to jump on a team, usually, after they play poorly
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: on a primetime stage like that, you know, which Detroit did.
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: Usually I'm going to look to play on that team
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: in the next game, but I don't know, man. I
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: don't know if Detroit's going to actually get fully up
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: for an Arizona team that really has not been playing well.
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: Detroit is 0-2 straight up on the road so far,
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: although the other losses to the Bills, can't really totally
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: blame them for that. But they do have the Packers
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: on deck, although it is after a bye. But after
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: the bye, big divisional games coming up for Detroit against
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: the Packers and the Vikings, and they haven't played anybody
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: in their division yet. So those are big games. So
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: it is possible they kind of overlooked the Cardinals here. Cardinals,
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: like I said, that was kind of a misleading loss
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: to the Giants where they kind of had the Giants–
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: You know, in a bad position there. Arizona, if they
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: had scored a touchdown at the end, they were going
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: to win that game with an extra point. But instead,
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: they lost that game on the pick six. It was
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: kind of misleading that they lost the game by as
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: much as they did. Now they're flipping around. They probably
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: will not overlook the Lions here. Arizona's only played one
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: home game so far this season, by the way. And yes,
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: they got destroyed by the Seahawks. But if you remember,
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: I talked about that game. I liked the Seahawks in
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: that game because Arizona had upset the Chargers in week one.
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: So they were kind of in a letdown spot coming
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: off of that. And the Seahawks were in an injured
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: player theory spot starting Drew Locke. for the first time
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: so that was the game that the seahawks were just
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: not going to overlook because i think they like that's
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: why the injured player theory works because the team felt
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: like they needed to put in an effort with their
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: quarterback injured so that's what happened in that game arizona's
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: not played at home since then I think there are
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: more arguments to be made for Arizona in this game
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: than otherwise, so that's the way I'll lean here. It
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: looks like the money agrees with that, but I don't
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: love this game at all. Detroit, 64% of tickets on them,
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: 56% of the cash on Arizona, though. The number's 5.5 here.
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: I was kind of thinking maybe over in this game,
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: but it's a really high total. It's the highest total
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: of the week, except for the Monday night game is
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: really high as well, but they're both around the same, 54.5.
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: I do talk about how the highest totals, you do
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: tend to want to look to go over with those
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: totals because it's high for a reason. Detroit, they're an
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: over-type of team. I mean, they have a really good
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: offense and a not-good defense. But the money's kind of
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: going against that in that game, so I don't know.
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'd probably still lean over in that game,
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: but if you force me to give a play on
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: that game, maybe I would say the over. But I
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: don't want to do that either. Again, I'm not really
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: a totals guy in the NFL anyway, but the money
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: is saying Arizona here for whatever that's worth, with 64%
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: of the tickets on Detroit and 56% of the cash
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: on the Cardinals. Sean Payton took over the play calling.
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. No, I don't consider that to
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: be a factor very much at all there. I don't know.
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: I feel like there was one other team where somebody
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: took over play calling. I think it was... I forget, dude.
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: There was one other team where somebody took over the
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: defensive play calling from the D.C., and I can't remember
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: which team it was, but whatever. I don't know if
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: it's that big of a deal. Perhaps the biggest game
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: on the slate is San Francisco at Seattle here. This
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: game is really, really difficult for me to figure out. Now, Seattle,
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: they didn't play that well against the Chargers last week.
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: They won the game. They had a big lead, but
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: it was kind of misleading. They capitalized on Charger turnovers.
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. So Seattle, they weren't that good
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: in that game. Now, I don't worry about them having
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: a look ahead to the Broncos on Thursday. I kind
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: of might worry about the Broncos having a look ahead
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: here to the Thursday game. Obviously, Seattle's not going to
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: overlook their divisional opponent that's ahead of them. the 49ers,
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: so no, that's not going to happen here. But, The 49ers,
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: you remember what happened the last time these two teams played.
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: The 49ers got destroyed by Seattle the last time these
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: two teams played in the playoffs. So this is a
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: playoff revenge game for San Francisco, and that's kind of
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: the way I'm going to be leaning in this game.
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: That was an embarrassing loss, dude, at Seattle. They're returning
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: to the scene of the crime here. They lost that
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: game 41-6, dude. And that was how the 49ers' season ended.
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: But remember, they were on the East Coast the week
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: before that, and they had to go all the way west.
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: while Seattle was just waiting, because I think Seattle, correct
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: me if I'm wrong, but Seattle had a bye, right,
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: they were the one seed, I'm pretty sure, so yeah,
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: so that was kind of a bad spot for San
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: Francisco there, in a way, so this is not what
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: we have here though, right, like San Francisco is just
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: coming in from San Francisco, so much easier travel spot
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: for them here, I know Seattle's just staying at home here,
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: so they don't have to travel at all, And I
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: know Seattle's favored, even though they have the lesser record here.
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: Seattle's 3-1. San Francisco's 4-0. So maybe the public is
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: going to be leaning to the Niners just because, oh,
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: it's the undefeated team getting points. And they actually are.
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: 60% of the tickets are on San Francisco. They look
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: like they're a public underdog. I don't love seeing that
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: because I lean San Francisco in this game, but the
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: money is really saying otherwise. 85% of the cash on Seattle.
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: They're laying three in this game. I don't see it, man. Um,
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: even though San Francisco, you know, they're San Francisco is
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: coming up kind of a misleading ish looking win as well.
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: Like it was a close game that they had against, uh, Denver, but, uh,
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: kind of both teams are, you know what I mean? Um,
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: Mike Evans is not scoring three touchdowns. He's on my
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: fantasy bench and he's pretty much injured right now. So
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: that's definitely not happening. Um, And if it does, I'm
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: going to be livid. I have to decide between him
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: and T. Higgins, but if Higgins is actually playing, it's
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: going to be him against a Miami defense that I
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: think is a lot weaker than Seattle. So that's what
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: I've got to do there. Although Mike Evans is the
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: number one wide receiver for San Francisco, if Chase is out,
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: Higgins should get a lot of targets from Joe Burrow,
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: who I'm also playing on my fantasy team this week
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: because Bryce Young is on bye. So Burrow is my
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: quarterback here. Yeah, I'm leaning San Francisco, at least for now,
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: but I really don't like the market read here. But
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: I'd be leaning towards taking the points with that. I
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: really don't like it, though. Sunday night game is my
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: last play, as I already mentioned. I like this one
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: quite a bit. We have a couple of angles working
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: for us in this game. We're taking the Baltimore Ravens
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: plus 3.5 at Atlanta on the Sunday night game. All
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: of a sudden, Baltimore, who is the better team, they're
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: getting 3.5 points from the Falcons. Give me a break, dude.
• 54:32
  Speaker 5: Um.
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: And it's because Lamar Jackson is hurt. Yes, I know that.
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: He got hurt last week. Baltimore was going to be
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: a favorite in this game, and now because Lamar Jackson
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: is down, the line is flipped all the way to
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: Atlanta being a three-and-a-half-point favorite. Are you kidding me? Because
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson is down, they moved this line like five points.
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: Baltimore is going to be a one-and-a-half-point favorite. Now they're
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: a three-and-a-half-point underdog. Just because Jackson's down, it's going to
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: be Tyler Huntley, but... There's no way that this is
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: that much of a drop-off, dude. Tyler Huntley has spent
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: basically the majority of his career in this Baltimore system
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: backing up Lamar Jackson. So he's the guy to back
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: him up. He's done it multiple times before. He had
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: to do it multiple games last year, too. Huntley is
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: obviously used to this. He knows the system. He's been
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: in the system repeatedly. I think he was only away
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: from the Ravens for like a short break where he
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: was on Miami for a little while. Other than that,
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: he's been in this Baltimore system. I know they have
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: a new coach this year with Minter, but whatever. I
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: think it's not that much of a drop-off. Huntley is
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: like a similar style quarterback to Jackson as well, so
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: they don't have to change their playbook, whatever. He's really
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: used to playing with this Baltimore team. They're getting a
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: shit ton of points here. I believe I played on
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: them in a Huntley game yesterday. against Green Bay last year, right?
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: I gave you guys Baltimore as a play, if I
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: remember correctly, and Baltimore won that game with ease. And
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: I think they were about a three and a half
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: point underdog on the road in that game too against
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: an NFC opponent. So yeah, let's fucking do it again here, man.
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: I think people are going to, you know, kind of
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: shy away from Baltimore in this one because Atlanta's looks
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: so good in multiple primetime games recently. Baltimore, you know,
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: and kind of an unimpressive win against the Titans last week.
• 56:14
  Speaker 3: We were the only one by six. But like I said,
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: Jackson went down in the game, and I know he's
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: not playing in this game, but Baltimore had a handle
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: on that game. It was never in doubt that they
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: were going to win that game. It's just Tennessee put
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: it in the end zone late and got a two-point conversion,
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure, to make it cosmetic after they were
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: down 14. And Baltimore was probably just kind of taking
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: it easy in that game and kind of overlooking that spot.
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: Baltimore was coming back from Brazil, by the way. Baltimore
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: had beaten Dallas in Brazil, and they were coming back
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: from that game. So I think Baltimore, now that they're
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: adjusted back to playing in the United States and whatever,
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: I think they're going to catch Atlanta here. Atlanta has
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: looked too good in their last two games. Everybody saw
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: these two games where they upset the Packers on the road,
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: blew them out, and then they also upset the Saints,
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: a milder upset on the road. Both those games in primetime.
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: Packers on a Thursday night, Saints on Monday night. So
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: the Falcons are on a short turnaround time here. They
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: spoiled the Saints' Hurricane Katrina anniversary game that they had there.
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: Big win for the Falcons, man. And this is an
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: out-of-conference game now. And they do have the Bears next,
• 57:26
  Speaker 3: and the Bears have been playing well. And then the 49ers.
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. This game looks like a down
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: spot to me in this Battle of the Birds here.
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: I like the Ravens for a bunch of reasons. Again, man,
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: I think we're getting line value because of the Lamar
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: Jackson injury. I think it's an overreaction. Because of the
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: Lamar injury and because Baltimore wasn't that good last week
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: against Tennessee, I think those are going to have Baltimore
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: more focused in this game. And Baltimore is better than
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: the Packers and the Saints. What do you want me
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: to say? You know what I mean? The Falcons were
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: an underdog in both of those games, and now all
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: of a sudden they're flipping to being a favorite against
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: a team that's better than both the Packers and the Saints. Okay. Yeah,
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: good luck with that to the Falcons. I'm still not
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: buying this shit. The Michael Pennock show, I understand he
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: looks really good, and when you have a team look
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: really good in back-to-back primetime games like that, and now, oh,
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: it's another primetime game where the public's going to get involved,
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: you know what the public is going to do. And
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson's hurt? Oh, yeah. You know what the public
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: is going to do? They're going to play the Falcons
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: in this game. All of a sudden, They love what
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: they see out of the Falcons with Michael Penickson. They're unbeatable, man.
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: We saw them win, you know, in these isolated games
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: Thursday night, Monday night, looking completely unbeatable. They're going to
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: win again on a Sunday night game, right? No, I
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: don't think so. Also, I think it takes its toll
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: when you're playing all these primetime games week after week
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: like this. Like, how can you get up for all
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: these games like this week after week? Effort, effort, effort.
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: At some point, you're just not going to have it
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: at some point. You know what I mean? And I
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: think Baltimore is going to be the team that is
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: able to put in a bigger effort here. You're getting
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: points with them. Ravens are the side here. Atlanta, 54%
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: of the tickets on them. Who would have ever thought
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: Atlanta would be a slightly public space? against the Baltimore Ravens? Ravens,
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: 54% of the cash on them. Money is seemingly agreeing
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: with me on this. The Ravens are the better team, man.
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know, I think even without Lamar Jackson,
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: the Ravens are still the better team here, okay? Like,
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: I think this line should be like, Maybe Atlanta minus
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: one and a half, something like that. Like Baltimore is
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: still the better team. You're going to give me the
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: field goal and the hook. All right, we'll do it.
• 59:38
  Speaker 3: We'll take Baltimore plus three and a half in that one. Uh, I,
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: I just said T Higgins fully practiced on Friday. Get
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: into my show earlier, man. Higgins is questionable right now,
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: but it looks like he's probably going to play as
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: far as I can tell. Cause he fully practiced on Friday. Um,
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: I don't give a shit what you think about this.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: Penix has thrown two interceptions. All right, whatever. Again, this
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: is public perception right now that all of a sudden
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: Penix is fucking awesome. I'm not buying it. I'm not
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: buying it. Okay. Baltimore's a better team than each of
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: those other two teams. They're definitely the better defense over
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: New Orleans and probably still over Green Bay too. I mean,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Green Bay's got a lot of problems
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: right now, although most of them are offensively though. Their
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: defense is still all right. Then we have the Monday
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: night game, which I will talk about again in the
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: Monday morning show, but it's Buffalo at the Rams on
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: ESPN Monday night. I don't know what to do with
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: this game. I'm not going to have a play on
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: this one. This is a tough game to figure out, dude.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: Buffalo is 3-1, the Rams are 2-2, and I think
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: the public is going to be on Buffalo. I think
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: the public likes the younger QB, Josh Allen. I think
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: they like the offensive output they've seen from Buffalo so far,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: and the fact that they're 3-1 and getting points. I
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: think the public might be siding with Buffalo in this one.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: Now Buffalo's coming off their first loss, and you know
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: what I say, when a team has their first loss
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: and it was a big game against the Patriots, kind
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: of a revenge game in a way for Buffalo because
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: they had lost at home to the Patriots last year.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: Baltimore might be a little bit hung over, or excuse me,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: Buffalo might be a little bit hung over after a
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: game like that. Even though I know they were a
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: favorite and they lost, and a lot of times I
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: talk about how a favorite... tends to bounce back if
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: they play badly. But in a big game like that
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: where both teams put in a huge effort, I'm not
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: so sure about that. And the Patriots actually outplayed Buffalo
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: in that game. They actually outgained them. So it wasn't
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: a misleading result or anything like that. Now Buffalo's got
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: to turn around and go all the way to the
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: West Coast for a night game. And you know what
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: I'm going to say. Again, bad biological clock spot. Buffalo
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: has not played anywhere west of the central time zone
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: so far this year. They're going to have to go
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: out west and adjust their bioclocks to this late-night game.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: I think that's bad. And while, yes, the Rams do
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: also have to do that because they were in Philly
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: last week, the Rams at least are more used to
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: this because they play on the West Coast. And they've
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 3: already played two games out there this year. Or no,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: excuse me, one. Only one. They played in Australia. which
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: is where they lost to the 49ers. My mistake. The
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: Rams are 1-0 at home, and they won easily against
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: the Giants in a primetime game. That was a winner
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: for us on the show, by the way. I think
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: that was a Monday night game. I know Dart got hurt,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: but the Rams are going to win that game anyway.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: So we got the win there with the Rams in
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: their only other home game. I'm going to lean to
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: the Rams in this one. The Rams also outplayed the
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: Eagles by way more than it looked like here. And
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: the Eagles haven't been playing well, so I think the
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: public is going to give Buffalo, I think, more credit
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: at this point for a close game against the Patriots
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: than they're going to give the Rams for beating this
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: Eagles team that is all beat up on offense. It
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: doesn't look like they can do anything. Look at what
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: happened in this game, though. Statistically, the Rams completely dominated
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: this game. They outgained Philadelphia by over 200 yards. They
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: were minus two in turnovers, which hurt them. They won
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: the possession battle, and they had more than double the
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: Eagles' first down. So the Rams did dominate this game.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: The Rams are still a really good team, man. I
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: think they're the better defense over Buffalo at the very least.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: And I think the offense, yeah, you give the offensive
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: edge to Buffalo, but I don't know. I'm going to
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: lean with the better defense and, you know, For all
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: the other reasons I already stated, I'm going to be
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: leaning towards the Rams in this one. 62% of the
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: tickets are on Buffalo. 75% of the cash on the Rams.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: So the money is back in the Rams here. I
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: think Buffalo is coming off the tougher game then. It's
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: going to be a tougher spot for them to travel
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: west than it is for the Rams just because the
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 3: Rams are used to it at this point. You know
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: what I mean? And like I said, this is a
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: high total. Money seemingly kind of driving this up on
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: the over, but I don't think I'd play the over
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: in a primetime game like this because you know the
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: line's going to be a little bit skewed towards the
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: over because the oddsmakers know the public. They're going to, oh,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen against Matthew Stafford. You know, the public's going
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: to come in and play the over in this one,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: so I don't really love the idea of the over
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: in this game, but I will lean to the Rams
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: if I have to give a lean on that game.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: That is it. That's the show. We got three plays
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: for tomorrow. The New York Jets minus two. You know
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: how I do it, man, with these ugly games, but
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: they're catching a Browns team that is not what they
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: look like, and the Browns are in a horrible spot situation.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: situationally sandwich spot. Take the Jets, lay the two. We're
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: also going to lay the Pittsburgh Steelers with extra rest
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: off an ugly loss with the Colts looking way better
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: than they really were and having to come back from London.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: So Pittsburgh minus the two and a half and then
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 3: Baltimore getting extra value here with the Lamar Jackson injury.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: Injured player theory spot. We'll play Baltimore plus the three
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: and a half in the Sunday night game. We'll fade
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: the Much too overhyped Atlanta Falcons right now. That's going
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: to do it. Learn to tote on Twitter. Learn to
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: tote on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here, and
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: you'll get notified when I go live. We'll go live
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: tomorrow morning. It'll be a short show, though. I think
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: it'll be a little bit of hockey, and I don't
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: know if WNBA is resuming yet. They're going to be
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: in the finals. The finals matchup is decided. Actually, I
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: think they don't play for like a week, so I
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: don't think there'll be any WNBA matches. I think the
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: NLCS might be starting tomorrow, so I think I might
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: have one baseball game to break down, but it will
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: be a short card for sure. And I'll gloat about
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: having a decent day today. A good day, actually. So yeah,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: we're hot again, man. Yeah, what else do I got?
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: I think that's about it. Oh, no, wait, that's right. Like,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: subscribe to the channel here. Yeah, that's what I was saying.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Let's get some more
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: spikes going on there because we didn't have one this weekend,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: so let's keep it going, man. I'm winning again, so
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: let's fucking go. Let's have a winning NFL day tomorrow, too.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: Covered in my ukulele stuff on YouTube. You can check
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: that out. Patreon.com slash learn to tote if you want
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: to support me that way. Loser cast on Tuesday nights
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: because I'm a loser. And that's it. I appreciate it.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: Thanks for hanging out, everybody. Peace.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 6: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 6: somebody answer. Let somebody know. You do not have.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 5: To lose this round alone. Hold on, not tonight, not now.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 5: On Let me pull you out That.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 7: Bad luck bites hard But it don't get the crown
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 7: Hold on, hold on Stay with me.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 5: Now Hold on, hold on. You're still here now.