Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Chad Talks NFL Draft with Chris Raybon and Kentucky Derby with Matt Jones

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Chad Talks NFL Draft with Chris Raybon and Kentucky Derby with Matt Jones · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Huge. It's
0:20
Speaker 1: it's it's a Monday. Um. I'm sure at some point
0:26
Speaker 1: producer Matt Ford will come on and find a way
0:29
Speaker 1: to mock me at some point during this week Uh.
0:32
Speaker 1: And the opening, as anyone who listens to The Favorites knows,
0:35
Speaker 1: he does so well. But it is a big Monday
0:38
Speaker 1: because it's post draft weekend. There's a lot of NBA
0:41
Speaker 1: playoffs going on. The Warriors and the Rockets opened yesterday
0:45
Speaker 1: too much fanfare and controversy. Later on, uh this week
0:50
Speaker 1: this weekend Saturday, Kentucky Derby. So later on in the show,
0:54
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have Matt Jones, Action Network contributor from Kentucky
0:57
Speaker 1: Sports Radio. He's going to come on the show. Um,
1:01
Speaker 1: but first on the phone with me right now. Having
1:05
Speaker 1: done I'll take that bet on ESPN plus. Having done
1:10
Speaker 1: the new Action Network show on Serious on the Fantasy
1:14
Speaker 1: Channel eight seven, channel eighty seven. On Serious, you gotta
1:18
Speaker 1: listen two hours every day, nine to eleven Monday to Friday.
1:23
Speaker 1: Listen to that show. Uh. He was just a guest
1:26
Speaker 1: on their Chris Raybun Action Network senior writer. How you doing, Buddy.
1:31
Speaker 1: I'm good, Chad. You know, just celebrated a birthday. The
1:34
Speaker 1: NFL Draft just took place, so we got rosters. I
1:36
Speaker 1: am feeling good. I'm feeling pretty good too. Can we
1:40
Speaker 1: talk about the Warriors in the Rockets for a second.
1:42
Speaker 1: I'm gonna spring that on you. It's not something we
1:44
Speaker 1: talked about in advance of you coming on, But that
1:47
Speaker 1: was a pretty nutty game yesterday. And um, I know
1:51
Speaker 1: you had a lot of opinions on that game. Where
1:53
Speaker 1: did you land on that game? From a betting perspective?
1:57
Speaker 1: So that one was one that I kind of stayed
1:59
Speaker 1: a waite them from a betting perspective. I wanted to
2:01
Speaker 1: see how they're gonna play it for game two, um,
2:04
Speaker 1: because so what I saw in Game one was that
2:07
Speaker 1: as everyone did the restaurants, a ton of calls, and
2:10
Speaker 1: I think with all the scrutiny, with all the players
2:13
Speaker 1: coming out on Twitter, both side teams, that players that
2:16
Speaker 1: weren't even involved, you know, the whole Utah Jazz team
2:18
Speaker 1: to get involved in this thing. I think they're gonna
2:20
Speaker 1: call a tighter game and game two because they have
2:22
Speaker 1: no choice and I think if they call a tighter
2:24
Speaker 1: game and a tighter series for that matter, it benefits
2:28
Speaker 1: the rocket because James Harden, you know, they said they
2:31
Speaker 1: missed four calls and I'm not twelve free throws. James
2:33
Speaker 1: Harden doesn't missed many free throws. So I think that
2:36
Speaker 1: you're gonna see. Uh. I think this is the time
2:38
Speaker 1: the bet the Warriors. I'm excusing me, bet the Rockets
2:41
Speaker 1: because if you know, Matt mort did a piece on
2:43
Speaker 1: Action Network and he talked about how you want to
2:45
Speaker 1: bet against the Warriors in these reaction games when they're
2:47
Speaker 1: coming off a win. UM in the KDI error just
2:50
Speaker 1: six and seven against the spread coming off a win,
2:52
Speaker 1: but six and three coming off the loss. I think
2:54
Speaker 1: if you want to bet them, you bet them at
2:55
Speaker 1: a third quarter. They want eleven of fourteen third quarters
3:00
Speaker 1: against the Rockets since last season, that's kind of that's
3:04
Speaker 1: kind of beast well, that was insane last year, Like
3:07
Speaker 1: every single time the Warriors came out in the second half,
3:10
Speaker 1: they would just destroy any momentum the Rockets had and
3:14
Speaker 1: it was so so frustrating, and you kept thinking, can
3:17
Speaker 1: they keep doing it? Can they keep doing it? Um?
3:20
Speaker 1: And look they got into the fourth quarter this year,
3:22
Speaker 1: they were up by nine and then the Rockets made
3:24
Speaker 1: that comeback. Um, but I don't disagree with you. Like,
3:27
Speaker 1: if this game gets called, if the games get called
3:29
Speaker 1: a little bit tighter, then it's gonna be a lot
3:32
Speaker 1: more interesting for the Rockets. You have bet a ton
3:36
Speaker 1: of player props this year. Like if you follow people
3:40
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app, I follow you in the
3:43
Speaker 1: Action Network app. Um, how did you get so into
3:47
Speaker 1: the NBA player props? I think it's really the same
3:51
Speaker 1: way I got into fantasy as a whole. You know,
3:53
Speaker 1: I was a big growing up. I was big box
3:55
Speaker 1: store head. I would I would read every box score
3:58
Speaker 1: in the factual printed newspaper every day, but pre internet days,
4:03
Speaker 1: and uh so you know, just kind of going off that.
4:05
Speaker 1: You know, now you can kind of just bet on
4:07
Speaker 1: you know, points, rebounds and assists. I think it's kind
4:09
Speaker 1: of fun because you can really zero in on one
4:13
Speaker 1: particular player in one particular stat and kind of you know,
4:16
Speaker 1: versus I think sometimes in Fantasy the one drawback is
4:19
Speaker 1: it's almost like when you're making it fancy or DFF
4:21
Speaker 1: line of more so, it's like it's like a nine
4:24
Speaker 1: nine bet parley. You know, you're you're picking a lot
4:26
Speaker 1: up for nine players, and you know there's all these
4:28
Speaker 1: things that could go on. But um, when you're betting props,
4:31
Speaker 1: you know, it's just one singular event. You know, you
4:33
Speaker 1: better guys assist. He either goes over, he goes under.
4:36
Speaker 1: So UM, I really like kind of zero in on
4:39
Speaker 1: those on those sometimes is there an edge in either
4:43
Speaker 1: the Celtics box or the Sixers Raptors, or um the
4:50
Speaker 1: Nuggets and the Blazers or the Warriors and the Rockets.
4:53
Speaker 1: Where is the biggest edge in terms of a player
4:56
Speaker 1: who is either undervalued or overvalued in terms of press?
5:00
Speaker 1: So what I do with player props, Like, one of
5:03
Speaker 1: the things I always look for is, um, you know,
5:06
Speaker 1: players that are coming off so like, for example, the road,
5:11
Speaker 1: they tend to do like role players tend to do
5:13
Speaker 1: worse on the road. Road players tend to do better
5:16
Speaker 1: UM at home. So you know, for game ones, it
5:18
Speaker 1: doesn't apply quite as much. But once you hit uh,
5:20
Speaker 1: you know, all these games two's, Well, I'm looking for guys,
5:23
Speaker 1: you know on the Celtics, um who had you know,
5:26
Speaker 1: big you know, bigger games for his guys who essentially
5:29
Speaker 1: like the four you know the fourth and fifth option.
5:30
Speaker 1: Guys like Jalen Brown, Um, you know, on the on
5:33
Speaker 1: the Celtics. You know, he's a guy that's like probably
5:35
Speaker 1: the fifth guy that's gonna take shots in that line up.
5:38
Speaker 1: So a lot of times, you know, you get that
5:40
Speaker 1: him on the under and on the road. You know,
5:42
Speaker 1: teams getting teams struggled, they uh, you know, tend to
5:45
Speaker 1: pull their starters a little earlier if they're losing on
5:47
Speaker 1: the road because they're not worried about kind of waving
5:49
Speaker 1: the white flag um as they are at home. So
5:52
Speaker 1: I like guys like that m Paul Millsap when he
5:54
Speaker 1: gets on the road. Um, you know, I'm waiting for
5:57
Speaker 1: that for that Game three because Paul Millsap, I mean,
6:00
Speaker 1: home the average about fifteen points per game, uh shooting
6:04
Speaker 1: and on the road ten points thirty one percent shooting. So, um,
6:08
Speaker 1: he's a guy I've been banging the the unders on
6:11
Speaker 1: any time he hits the road all season. But that's
6:13
Speaker 1: really how I do it. And then beyond that, it's
6:15
Speaker 1: just kind of um dut you know, I really love
6:17
Speaker 1: our NBA player profits who at Fantasy rapp dot com
6:20
Speaker 1: on rates every bet you know with with the bet
6:22
Speaker 1: quality rating and those are really successful. You know, the
6:25
Speaker 1: top rated bests are hitting at about a six rate
6:28
Speaker 1: since the start of the season. God, I love how
6:30
Speaker 1: you are looking for the You are mining for these
6:33
Speaker 1: nuggets right like you are so deep in the weeds.
6:37
Speaker 1: The fact that you're reciting Paul mill SAPs stats to me,
6:42
Speaker 1: his splits between the Road and at home, uh, tells
6:47
Speaker 1: me how committed and dedicated you are to betting these props,
6:52
Speaker 1: which is a little bit scary. I'm surprised your girlfriend
6:54
Speaker 1: even want to spend time with you this weekend. I
6:56
Speaker 1: mean that you and me, both you and me boatch.
6:59
Speaker 1: But you know, it's it's something where with the props,
7:01
Speaker 1: I mean, if you've been doing it all season, you
7:03
Speaker 1: kind of get the kind of there there's like recurring teams,
7:06
Speaker 1: like you know, you start to note, you start to
7:08
Speaker 1: notice guys who just play a certain way. And the
7:10
Speaker 1: NBA is a very kind of um it's it's up
7:13
Speaker 1: and down. So I think it's an effort lead where
7:15
Speaker 1: a lot of guys, I don't think anyone really besides
7:18
Speaker 1: Russell Westbrook UM gives a hundred percent effort every night.
7:21
Speaker 1: And so what you see is like a guy might
7:23
Speaker 1: have a big game one day and he'll feel like
7:25
Speaker 1: he did his part in Okay, I'm gonna get my
7:27
Speaker 1: teammates involved. So you always have things like that, Like
7:29
Speaker 1: you usually see guys, you know, follow up at like
7:31
Speaker 1: Kyle Lowry. The minute he had that zero point game,
7:33
Speaker 1: you knew he was gonna go over as prop um
7:35
Speaker 1: the next game, said Sathing. With Ben Simmons in that
7:38
Speaker 1: first round, Um, he had a really bad game in
7:40
Speaker 1: game one and and and went over his points prop
7:42
Speaker 1: and games too. So you know, guys wh are aware
7:44
Speaker 1: of their own stats very much. So in the NBA,
7:46
Speaker 1: they get the box score the minute they um, minute
7:48
Speaker 1: they hit the locker room in a post game, they
7:50
Speaker 1: get a printed out box score and they look at
7:51
Speaker 1: their stats. How many how often have you bet James
7:55
Speaker 1: Harden under points scored in the game this year? I
8:00
Speaker 1: want to? I think zero? Um, I tend to, you know,
8:03
Speaker 1: I don't even if you know there's there might be
8:05
Speaker 1: a little bit of value on some of those. I
8:07
Speaker 1: just like hate betting against superstars like that, you know,
8:10
Speaker 1: So like I generally don't bet Westbrook unders, I don't
8:13
Speaker 1: bet Harden Under's just certain guys. It just doesn't seem
8:17
Speaker 1: um like a smart thing to do. And then I
8:18
Speaker 1: don't really want to bet the overs either because you
8:21
Speaker 1: know they're so they're so high, so it's like you
8:23
Speaker 1: don't want to be like it takes more for it
8:25
Speaker 1: to go right. So I like to a lot of
8:26
Speaker 1: times bet. You know, I'm looking at usually the fourth
8:29
Speaker 1: or fifth role player on a team, like I bet
8:31
Speaker 1: Anthrew Bogan, you know his under um the other the
8:34
Speaker 1: last Warriors game against the Clippers, because I thought, you know,
8:38
Speaker 1: he's really struggling in the picking role against Lou Williams
8:41
Speaker 1: and Martrez the game before, and I thought, you know,
8:44
Speaker 1: he might end up getting less minutes and of course
8:46
Speaker 1: he actually didn't even start and did get a lot
8:48
Speaker 1: less minutes. So um, you know, just looking for situations
8:50
Speaker 1: like that. Um, I think they are the more profitable
8:52
Speaker 1: ones because the the the ones with the stars. Um
8:55
Speaker 1: I think they're priced a little more uh correctly. Yeah,
8:59
Speaker 1: I do know. Is that also following you in the
9:01
Speaker 1: Action Network cap you consistently bet people like that I've
9:05
Speaker 1: never heard of, and so it'll be it'll be like
9:09
Speaker 1: this random player under five and a half rebounds, right,
9:14
Speaker 1: you know, Because again you're always looking for you know,
9:18
Speaker 1: I would say that when a book puts out a
9:21
Speaker 1: line for a prop, right, a lot of times they're
9:23
Speaker 1: just making They're just doing it very simply because they
9:25
Speaker 1: don't have a lot of time to put these out.
9:26
Speaker 1: They're putting out you know, if there's a full slate
9:29
Speaker 1: of games, I mean during the regular because they're putting
9:30
Speaker 1: out hundreds of these things, even they're in the playoffs.
9:32
Speaker 1: You know, when you consider you know, three props per starter, Um,
9:35
Speaker 1: there's still a lot of props. And um, the people
9:37
Speaker 1: are always betting on you know, the more obscure players
9:40
Speaker 1: are the fourth and fifth options on the team, and
9:42
Speaker 1: so uh, you know, the lines won't move and they won't, um,
9:45
Speaker 1: I don't. They won't you know, get hit by as
9:47
Speaker 1: much sharp actions, just any action. Really, So the books
9:49
Speaker 1: aren't paying attention. And those are the ones that I
9:51
Speaker 1: really try to, um, really try to hit because I
9:53
Speaker 1: find the most value on those. I'm just gonna start
9:56
Speaker 1: betting whatever you bet in the player proper arena. Sound good? Um,
10:02
Speaker 1: can we talk a little bit about the NFL? Are
10:04
Speaker 1: you ready for that? I knowed you talked about this
10:07
Speaker 1: on the on our brand new show on Serious Fantasy Channel.
10:11
Speaker 1: Lady seven. Um. But the draft was this weekend. Kyler
10:15
Speaker 1: Murray went number one overall. Naturally, there are a million
10:19
Speaker 1: player props against Kyler Murray. Uh, touchdowns nineteen yardage over?
10:28
Speaker 1: Tell me why because your friend black Jack Fletcher, who's
10:30
Speaker 1: a cost to this and oh my goodness, oh everything
10:35
Speaker 1: over with Tyler win, Arizona win total five over wow
10:40
Speaker 1: over like everything like like this guy all right. For example,
10:46
Speaker 1: you know, in February, Kyler Murray was about I want
10:48
Speaker 1: to say, plus five hundred or something like that to
10:51
Speaker 1: be picked number one. Um. And and that's just that's
10:54
Speaker 1: just because for him a bow number one and for
10:57
Speaker 1: him to end up as like the overwhelming favorite, you know,
10:59
Speaker 1: eve and you know leading up to the draft, because
11:02
Speaker 1: this guy is a special player. Um. And he's a
11:04
Speaker 1: guy that made kind of you know, the the league
11:07
Speaker 1: and made you know, people around and we kind of
11:09
Speaker 1: look at, um, you know him differently because any other year,
11:14
Speaker 1: at any time in the past, a guy of that stature,
11:16
Speaker 1: you know, would have gotten not just just for simply
11:18
Speaker 1: that stature. Um. But now you know, people kind of
11:22
Speaker 1: realizing that that doesn't matter as much, specially if the
11:24
Speaker 1: spread offenses. Um. You know, uh. One of the guys
11:27
Speaker 1: on on the on ABC on the when they were
11:29
Speaker 1: covering the draft mentioned some stat about he doesn't get
11:32
Speaker 1: many passes knocked down either, even though he is, um,
11:35
Speaker 1: you know, not that tall, you know, under sixty. So
11:37
Speaker 1: I think there's a special player. I love what they
11:39
Speaker 1: did in the draft getting Isabella Minuteman and um, you know,
11:43
Speaker 1: they got Hakim Butler. So I think this is gonna
11:45
Speaker 1: be a pretty explosive team. And let's not forget David
11:47
Speaker 1: Johnson has been hungry for a thousand yard Russian thousand
11:51
Speaker 1: yard receiving season. He reminds me a lot of time
11:53
Speaker 1: Gurley that year where it was the last year with
11:55
Speaker 1: Jeff Fisher and Ti Gurley average three point two yards
11:59
Speaker 1: to carry, nobody to touch him into like the end
12:01
Speaker 1: of the second round and fancy, everyone kind of was
12:03
Speaker 1: like wondering what the hell happened? And he goes out
12:06
Speaker 1: and has the most monstrous season ever the next year.
12:09
Speaker 1: Like that, David Johnson is capable of the same thing.
12:11
Speaker 1: Like I'm I'm already pretty much drafting David Johnson over
12:16
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley in fantasy. You know, Todd Gurleys got the
12:18
Speaker 1: Niets and turns arthritic knee. Rams drafted another back, um,
12:22
Speaker 1: you know, spent some some significant draft capital on Henderson.
12:25
Speaker 1: So I think I think the Rams are a little
12:27
Speaker 1: bit worried about about Girley, and I would be too,
12:29
Speaker 1: because we know running backs have a short Shelfler. But
12:33
Speaker 1: let's get back to the fact of the matter here,
12:36
Speaker 1: Ariz over five wins over easily. So all right, So
12:41
Speaker 1: objectively speaking, like let's say you have you have zero
12:45
Speaker 1: beliefs in Tyler, you have zero beliefs in Kingsbury, uh,
12:48
Speaker 1: and you have zero beliefs in the rest of the
12:51
Speaker 1: roster moves they made. Teams are won three games, such
12:55
Speaker 1: as the Cardinals over the past sixteen years. When a
12:58
Speaker 1: team wins three games, the next year they average six
13:01
Speaker 1: and a half win It's just the NFL is just
13:04
Speaker 1: a regression league. It's just you have to be really
13:09
Speaker 1: an outlier um to kind of ward off that that
13:12
Speaker 1: inherent regression, because you know it's not just the card
13:15
Speaker 1: you know other teams. You know it's a strong division,
13:17
Speaker 1: but you know guys can get hurt. You know, we've
13:19
Speaker 1: already seen what what's going on in Seattle, where you
13:22
Speaker 1: know Doug Baldwin might not be back. Now, you know,
13:24
Speaker 1: things can happen, things can change really quickly, and I think, um,
13:27
Speaker 1: when you're betting on the NFL, it's kind of one
13:29
Speaker 1: of those things leads I think where you have to
13:31
Speaker 1: look for outliers a little bit more. You know, something
13:33
Speaker 1: like the NBA. UM, it's so predictable and you can
13:37
Speaker 1: build such good models that are so accurate because you
13:40
Speaker 1: have such a large sample size, whereas the NFL they're
13:42
Speaker 1: only sixteen games, and so even you know, people are
13:45
Speaker 1: just so slow to catch onto some of the most
13:47
Speaker 1: profitable situations. You know, just like the past Mahomes last year.
13:51
Speaker 1: You know, there's a lot of people kind of you know,
13:53
Speaker 1: kind of on the fence about you know, how good
13:54
Speaker 1: he would be, how good to be a fancy, how
13:56
Speaker 1: good the Chiefs would be. Um, you know, we saw
13:59
Speaker 1: what happened there. So I think, you know, when you
14:00
Speaker 1: see these situations, you know, even the Bears last year
14:03
Speaker 1: twelve or tour um, So I think you have to
14:05
Speaker 1: really kind of the um count on. You know, if
14:07
Speaker 1: you see a team that you think it's significantly better,
14:10
Speaker 1: I think you would invest, And especially now because now
14:12
Speaker 1: a lot of people haven't even looked and win totals
14:15
Speaker 1: yet like people aren't like they might not bet them
14:17
Speaker 1: to August September, So I think you could still get
14:19
Speaker 1: a ton of value on teams like the Cardinals. All right,
14:23
Speaker 1: who else? Then I love the brown still at nine
14:26
Speaker 1: because I think that's gonna jump up to nine and
14:28
Speaker 1: a half, you know what, a lot of spots and
14:30
Speaker 1: there's no question in my mind that they are they're
14:32
Speaker 1: a winning team, like they're in a bug five hunt team.
14:34
Speaker 1: But um to be able to get that push at
14:36
Speaker 1: nine and seven versus um them having to win double
14:39
Speaker 1: digit games, I think is big. But um, you know,
14:42
Speaker 1: love what day Daniel Baker maycre Over the second half
14:45
Speaker 1: of last season averaged eight point five seven yards in
14:48
Speaker 1: attempt and that was second in the league behind only
14:52
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. And so especially now with uh, you know,
14:57
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill looking like he might not a um you know,
15:01
Speaker 1: didn't yet think it too. It's leads just lead to
15:04
Speaker 1: the league in every passing category this year. So I mean,
15:07
Speaker 1: I really like the Browns, like I like what they
15:09
Speaker 1: did in the draft. I think, um, you know, they
15:11
Speaker 1: also have top the top five pick talent at a
15:13
Speaker 1: key defensive spots too. Denzel Awards the top five pick
15:16
Speaker 1: at corner, Myles Garrett top five pick pass Russia. So, UM,
15:20
Speaker 1: Brown's got a really good team, I think, UM, I
15:23
Speaker 1: think they're gonna be kind of in the in the
15:26
Speaker 1: conversation UM for the AFC Championship. Honestly, who did nothing
15:31
Speaker 1: on draft Day to make you think wow? I really
15:35
Speaker 1: think UM, the under is the right play on this
15:38
Speaker 1: team because right now I got you bet in like
15:41
Speaker 1: a square and just you know, you're all over the overs.
15:45
Speaker 1: It seems to be what you want to do. Who
15:47
Speaker 1: would you take the under ONUND? Well, first of all,
15:50
Speaker 1: I think I actually wrote an article about this on
15:52
Speaker 1: Action Now to UM last week. I think now is
15:55
Speaker 1: the best time about overs because I do think you
15:57
Speaker 1: know about what three quarters I think bets end of
16:00
Speaker 1: coming on the over, so you win total. So UM
16:03
Speaker 1: the over the other ones that are gonna tend to increase,
16:05
Speaker 1: and the juice is gonna jump. So I definitely think
16:07
Speaker 1: you want to get the overs um sooner and then
16:10
Speaker 1: the unders. You know, sometimes you see under that you
16:13
Speaker 1: like and it was still the price will still be
16:15
Speaker 1: going up. But UM, teams that I you know, don't
16:17
Speaker 1: really UM that I'm betting the under on it is
16:20
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints and um best for you know,
16:23
Speaker 1: they kind of came into the draft with not a
16:26
Speaker 1: lot of draft capital, so you know, I don't hate
16:28
Speaker 1: their picks necessarily as much as the fact that they
16:32
Speaker 1: didn't have any of them, so you know, and they
16:34
Speaker 1: traded up a couple of times again, so uh, you
16:36
Speaker 1: know their team that I just don't think that their
16:38
Speaker 1: roster really uh you know, it's going to be significantly improved.
16:42
Speaker 1: And I think it's a very kind of top heavy,
16:44
Speaker 1: fragile team and and you know, they depend on Drew
16:47
Speaker 1: Brees being great a lot of time. And you know,
16:50
Speaker 1: even with their receiving corps, I mean, uh, you know,
16:52
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas is commanding about thirty percent of the targets there.
16:56
Speaker 1: So something happens to him, it's a problem. Same thing
16:58
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamar or something happened to them, it's a problem.
17:00
Speaker 1: So I think that team is a team where I do.
17:03
Speaker 1: Brea didn't look right to me over the second half
17:05
Speaker 1: um their winter, it was ten and a half. I've
17:06
Speaker 1: been the under you know, they could be a ten
17:08
Speaker 1: win team, a nine or ten win team, and I
17:10
Speaker 1: can still win that bet. I feel really good about
17:13
Speaker 1: that because you know, we've seen the Saint kind of
17:15
Speaker 1: vastly between between uh you know was seven and nine.
17:20
Speaker 1: It would be like seven and nine, can have a
17:22
Speaker 1: couple of good years and they'll be right back to
17:23
Speaker 1: seven and nine. So, um, you know, I'm betting the
17:26
Speaker 1: under for the Saint. I'm not really buying it. I
17:28
Speaker 1: think people are just giving him too much credit because
17:29
Speaker 1: they should have made the Super Bowl maybe last year
17:32
Speaker 1: with the blone call. But I'm not buying you know,
17:35
Speaker 1: them being one of the top two three teams in
17:37
Speaker 1: the league. Do you want to know which team I've
17:40
Speaker 1: already been on to win the Super Bowl? Whist team?
17:45
Speaker 1: The Indianapolis Colts. Oh, They've they've done some. I I
17:53
Speaker 1: bet them. I think it eighteen to one. And I
17:57
Speaker 1: look at that team and felt like they just like
18:00
Speaker 1: they figured out who they are who they were in
18:03
Speaker 1: the second half of the year. They got better and
18:05
Speaker 1: better and better, and they've made enough sort of tweaks
18:10
Speaker 1: to their um, to their roster that they are completely
18:14
Speaker 1: to me undervalued. Like if you're looking at that, if
18:17
Speaker 1: you're looking at that conference, Um, they I feel like
18:21
Speaker 1: they could come out of there in a way that
18:23
Speaker 1: that is different that that it's just gonna be unexpected.
18:27
Speaker 1: I loved their price. I tend to like to bet
18:29
Speaker 1: on teams that are at ten to twenty two one
18:33
Speaker 1: in the um future value. And while the Patriots sort
18:38
Speaker 1: of continued to sort of be that team that beats
18:41
Speaker 1: the odds necessary, you know, in that in that philosophy.
18:46
Speaker 1: Struggling with my words here today, But um, why are
18:51
Speaker 1: you laughing? Who's laughing? Antonio? I think you're hearing ghost Chad? Yeah,
18:56
Speaker 1: I don't think you're I don't think that you're feeling
18:58
Speaker 1: that good about that that that picked. After all, I
19:00
Speaker 1: think you're just you know, you're you're hearing him in
19:02
Speaker 1: your Hey, we're in you. And I feel really good
19:05
Speaker 1: about the pick. I just don't feel good about my
19:06
Speaker 1: explanation for the pick. Basically, I think there's Andrew luck. Um,
19:14
Speaker 1: you know, they kind of exceeded expectations last year after
19:17
Speaker 1: a slow, a slowish start, and you know, I think,
19:20
Speaker 1: you know, there's this is a team that's you know,
19:23
Speaker 1: the coaching. I think the coaching was frank right, I
19:25
Speaker 1: think the coach was really good, um last year. I
19:27
Speaker 1: think that helped him out a lot. I think, you know,
19:29
Speaker 1: the one thing for them. I think they just have
19:31
Speaker 1: to make sure that um, you know, hopefully you know,
19:33
Speaker 1: either Paris Campbell there their draft pick a wide receiver
19:37
Speaker 1: um gives them a boost, or Devin Clunches or somebody,
19:40
Speaker 1: because uh, Andrew Luck is really doing it doing it all.
19:42
Speaker 1: I think Marlon Mack was big for them, um coming
19:44
Speaker 1: down the stretch. So if he can stay healthy and
19:46
Speaker 1: they can get another another guy, you know, to to
19:49
Speaker 1: kind of support Ebron and Hilton, um, you know out wide,
19:53
Speaker 1: I think it really opens things up to them. And
19:54
Speaker 1: I think their defense, you know, young defense kind of
19:57
Speaker 1: ever Fluce was a really really strong for need. I
20:00
Speaker 1: think that, you know, they exceeded all expectations on defense
20:03
Speaker 1: last year. We thought it was gonna take them a while,
20:05
Speaker 1: and they still have a young, young defense, Um that
20:08
Speaker 1: that could be one of the better ones in the
20:10
Speaker 1: week this year. So UM, I'm totally I'm totally on
20:12
Speaker 1: board with the coachs. I like, if I offered you
20:16
Speaker 1: my cult's ticket for a hundred dollars right now and
20:21
Speaker 1: whatever it is, eighteen to one, sixteen to one, whatever,
20:24
Speaker 1: would you take it? Uh? Yeah, I mean that's really
20:30
Speaker 1: what there. I was all right now though, It's not
20:32
Speaker 1: like I'm getting any other value that I couldn't get,
20:34
Speaker 1: um just at a book. But yeah, what I better
20:38
Speaker 1: on the quat short m hmm. Maybe I'll think about that,
20:43
Speaker 1: Like I see him. I think I see him at
20:45
Speaker 1: sixteen to one right now, So I mean, I'll probably
20:47
Speaker 1: they're probably one of those UM first trendier pick that
20:50
Speaker 1: so I would think the pribaced would you know, they're
20:52
Speaker 1: probably would go up as the off season progressive UM?
20:57
Speaker 1: When you did you watch the draft this weekend? Yes?
21:00
Speaker 1: I did? And uh, what was the pick that was
21:05
Speaker 1: that you thought? Was like, Oh, this is the pick
21:08
Speaker 1: that I love more than any you know, I actually
21:13
Speaker 1: I really like going back to the Cardinals. I don't
21:15
Speaker 1: keep talking about the Cardinals, but I really liked the
21:18
Speaker 1: Buyer Murphy pick because you know, I think one of
21:21
Speaker 1: the things with them has been, you know, one of
21:23
Speaker 1: the pain points with them has been they they've struggled
21:25
Speaker 1: most of Patrick Peterson's career to put a guy opposite
21:31
Speaker 1: him that can kind of um, you know, take the
21:34
Speaker 1: heat off and that defensive don't really want to to
21:36
Speaker 1: throw at and I think, you know, being able to
21:38
Speaker 1: get a corner like that, UM was a really you
21:42
Speaker 1: know what he's been. He's he's been, um, you know,
21:44
Speaker 1: he's extullent corner can do getting very verta oppressed zone everything.
21:47
Speaker 1: So I think getting a corner like that was really
21:50
Speaker 1: big for them. UM. And I think the Deebo Samuel
21:53
Speaker 1: pick Uh for San Francisco, I think he wide receiver,
21:56
Speaker 1: you know, I think he could um, he could be
21:58
Speaker 1: big for them because they really struggled to score touchdown
22:01
Speaker 1: um in the regal and that was a problem going
22:05
Speaker 1: back to Jimmy Garoppolo's uh little six game whatever stint
22:08
Speaker 1: in seventeen as well. So I think that you know,
22:11
Speaker 1: them adding a guy who can catch touchdowns and take
22:14
Speaker 1: some of that pressure of kiddo, you know, having having
22:16
Speaker 1: got a dad and stuff. Pettis he's still and of
22:18
Speaker 1: course Kiddo and and all those running backs Kevin Coleman
22:21
Speaker 1: and whatnot. I think this is one of those offenses
22:23
Speaker 1: that could really be a lot more explosive than maybe
22:26
Speaker 1: people we're kind of thinking of because you know, Jimmy
22:28
Speaker 1: g kind of got hurt and kind of out of sight,
22:31
Speaker 1: out of mind. But I think that's a team to
22:32
Speaker 1: watch out for, especially on offense. They get get a
22:34
Speaker 1: lot of shootout because I don't know if theymproved their
22:36
Speaker 1: defense that much outside of uh, you know, they got Bosa,
22:38
Speaker 1: but I think the back end could still use a
22:40
Speaker 1: little work, So I think they could end up in
22:42
Speaker 1: a lot of shootouts. I here, why do you think
22:44
Speaker 1: that Miami Dolphins win total went down? I've seen it.
22:49
Speaker 1: I've seen it at five and then I've all of
22:51
Speaker 1: a sudden, I've seeing it at four and a half
22:52
Speaker 1: of places. Um, so you know, I think that you
22:57
Speaker 1: know it just it just kind of looks like they're
23:00
Speaker 1: they're kind of in this they're in a rebuild, and
23:02
Speaker 1: we you know, even though they traded for Rosen. Uh. Yeah,
23:05
Speaker 1: I think everyone kind of knows that that they're in
23:07
Speaker 1: a rebuild. I think that they had a solid draft,
23:10
Speaker 1: but you know, not really a spectacular one. Um, as
23:12
Speaker 1: far as I'm concerned. So, uh, you know, don't really
23:15
Speaker 1: see them winning many games. And then I think, you know,
23:17
Speaker 1: other teams in the division. I think the Patriots had
23:19
Speaker 1: a good draft. I think all the other teams in
23:21
Speaker 1: the division probably had had solid draft. So, um, you know,
23:24
Speaker 1: if you're gonna lose games, uh, you're you're playing the
23:28
Speaker 1: teams in an FC East twice each you're you're that
23:30
Speaker 1: one of the team that had the worst draft there
23:32
Speaker 1: that you know, it's probably gonna get not down a
23:34
Speaker 1: little bit. So I don't think the Dolphins are gonna
23:35
Speaker 1: really try to win this year. I mean I think
23:37
Speaker 1: they will start Rosen and we'll see how that goes.
23:39
Speaker 1: But you know, Rosen, I mean in a without much
23:42
Speaker 1: of you know, without much last year, UM, wasn't wasn't
23:46
Speaker 1: too good. So we'll see, you know, now he's in
23:47
Speaker 1: a situation where we've got another uh, you know, another
23:50
Speaker 1: first year coach, has got another offense that's not really
23:54
Speaker 1: that much around and a lot of inexperience, so um,
23:57
Speaker 1: he could just be he could kind of not be
23:59
Speaker 1: much better than last year with him on Cardinals UM
24:02
Speaker 1: down in Miami. So I think that, you know, and
24:04
Speaker 1: then fit Pastrick. I mean, you know, he was good
24:06
Speaker 1: because of what was around him. I I you know,
24:10
Speaker 1: Mike Devan, G. Humphreys was really good. D Jacks like
24:13
Speaker 1: it's hard not to put up huge numbers. Okay, Howard
24:16
Speaker 1: like we're thrown and guys like that. So I think
24:18
Speaker 1: he's gonna come back down to Urgin. We've seen him
24:20
Speaker 1: be just a carryover machine. So I think that that
24:23
Speaker 1: team is gonna struggle to win games. Listen, you have
24:26
Speaker 1: gone through, You've proven what a nerd you really are.
24:30
Speaker 1: You look cool, you're coming to the office, you don't
24:33
Speaker 1: take off your sunglasses. Um, I know how late you
24:36
Speaker 1: go out. You're usually wearing your like cool retro members
24:39
Speaker 1: only jacket. Um, looking better than anybody else. And yet
24:44
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, you're talking to me
24:45
Speaker 1: about like Paul millsap road splits and getting deep, deep,
24:51
Speaker 1: deep into like teams that have won three games and
24:55
Speaker 1: how they do the next year. You were like revel
24:59
Speaker 1: like your nerd qualities. Oh that was blasphemos chet, but
25:04
Speaker 1: I do appreciate the compliment. But you know, we need
25:05
Speaker 1: to talk about one more thing at least before I
25:08
Speaker 1: get out of here. And that's just this Daniel Jones pick.
25:10
Speaker 1: You need to talk about this Daniel Jones pick because
25:14
Speaker 1: it's just it's almost gotten to the point where it's
25:17
Speaker 1: like the people like, you know, regardless of what you're
25:20
Speaker 1: thinking him as a quarterback. It's like some of the
25:23
Speaker 1: reasons I've seen for for people, um kind of slandering
25:27
Speaker 1: the pig don't really make as much sense and sounds
25:30
Speaker 1: as smart as as they think it is, you know,
25:33
Speaker 1: as they think they do, because it's like, Okay, everyone's like, well,
25:37
Speaker 1: you took him at six when you could have got
25:40
Speaker 1: him as seventeen. But if you were running a franchise
25:45
Speaker 1: with that mentality, and you were any team between between
25:50
Speaker 1: you know, after the Giants between six and seventeen, essentially
25:54
Speaker 1: you would have been wrong because the team at six
25:56
Speaker 1: would have took them. So you can't have that mentality,
25:59
Speaker 1: Like I think there's a lot of ways that you could,
26:01
Speaker 1: um kind of say that that wasn't a good pick,
26:04
Speaker 1: but that was that. To me, that's just such a
26:05
Speaker 1: stupid one to say, oh, you could have you could
26:07
Speaker 1: have waited, because no, you couldn't have, because you know,
26:10
Speaker 1: just like I don't think any other if you didn't
26:12
Speaker 1: expect a team to take them at that spot, and
26:16
Speaker 1: then you would have been wrong. Um. Second, I think
26:19
Speaker 1: David Gentleman's response to the whole thing you know about
26:24
Speaker 1: oh well we want to follow the Kansas City model,
26:27
Speaker 1: I think that's uh, you know, a shaky premise as well,
26:29
Speaker 1: because like you remember, you remember the chief in tweeny seventeen,
26:34
Speaker 1: right like they were you know, Alex Smith had like
26:36
Speaker 1: the year of his life. Uh, the Albert Wilson led
26:39
Speaker 1: the league in separation because and that was you know,
26:43
Speaker 1: because the Tyreek Hill was drawing so much attention that
26:46
Speaker 1: you know, everyone was running wide open. Everyone thought Alex
26:49
Speaker 1: Smith was a deep ball thrower. You know what is
26:51
Speaker 1: Kansas City? You know now you see what happened with
26:53
Speaker 1: Karee Hunt. We see happen with Tyry Kill. You know,
26:56
Speaker 1: what if Kansas City's window was you know before like
27:00
Speaker 1: in seen and what if the Kansas City model only
27:03
Speaker 1: held him back? Right? Like what if Patrick mahomes In
27:07
Speaker 1: just does even better than Alex Smith? Because I mean
27:10
Speaker 1: everyone's running wide open. So I mean, I don't know
27:12
Speaker 1: how much that sitting on the bench watching Alex Smith,
27:15
Speaker 1: who plays completely different than him, really did. So like
27:19
Speaker 1: I hope that David Gettleman is not that to me,
27:22
Speaker 1: that would be a much bigger sin than making the
27:25
Speaker 1: pick is, oh, we're gonna sit this guy behind, you know, Uh,
27:30
Speaker 1: ghost of eu Im adding like what you know you
27:32
Speaker 1: could learn from eu Im adding while starting like you
27:35
Speaker 1: don't have to watch Eui Manning throw two yard passes
27:38
Speaker 1: into the ground to to to be a good quarterback
27:42
Speaker 1: for you know, to watch that for a year. So
27:44
Speaker 1: I hope, I hope he's not really trying to follow that.
27:46
Speaker 1: I'm hoping he's just saying that because he wants to
27:48
Speaker 1: kind of show respect to Eui. So that's that's just
27:50
Speaker 1: what I was thinking about that. By the way, you
27:53
Speaker 1: haven't written that at all. And that is a brilliant
27:56
Speaker 1: freaking take to take about Dave Gettleman saying that Chiefs
28:00
Speaker 1: model and then could have two thousand seven teen could
28:03
Speaker 1: have been the Chiefs window is genius. You need to
28:07
Speaker 1: write that right now for tomorrow. WHOA I got you?
28:10
Speaker 1: You get to do an interview and you get an assignment.
28:13
Speaker 1: See what I do for you. It's okay, it's okay.
28:19
Speaker 1: You know, get the jockets and stuff. So you know,
28:22
Speaker 1: I gotta you gotta pay you back and pay you
28:24
Speaker 1: all to pay all the listeners back, are you know?
28:26
Speaker 1: I know they want to they want to hear more
28:27
Speaker 1: about why the why David get him in the dum
28:31
Speaker 1: because that seems to be the best everyone's favorite topic
28:34
Speaker 1: right now. But you've got a different You've got an
28:36
Speaker 1: entirely different hot take on that. Chris Raybon, thank you
28:40
Speaker 1: for coming on the Favorites. Coming up next on the Favorites,
28:42
Speaker 1: Matt Jones. We're gonna talk about Kentucky Derby with Kentucky
28:46
Speaker 1: Sports Radio Raybon. Thanks man, thank you joining me now
28:52
Speaker 1: on the Favorites. One of our favorites from Kentucky Sports
28:56
Speaker 1: Radio calling me from Lexington. Mr Matt Jones, contributor to
29:00
Speaker 1: Action Network along with Drew Franklin. What's going on, man, Hey,
29:04
Speaker 1: I'm doing great. Guy. Did a radio show Saturday with
29:07
Speaker 1: another of your contributors, Jeff Schwartz. Got to know him
29:11
Speaker 1: a little bit and now I have another Action Network
29:13
Speaker 1: for end. Were you up in Were you in Bristol
29:16
Speaker 1: doing draft stuff with Jeff? Uh? Well, I did it
29:19
Speaker 1: from Kentucky. But yeah, we hosted the NFL Draft preview
29:23
Speaker 1: show on Saturday morning, so it was me, him and
29:25
Speaker 1: Myer Metcalf. But I didn't really know him before. He
29:28
Speaker 1: was great. Oh he's Jeff is fantastic. Jeff is awesome.
29:32
Speaker 1: What um And you know what Jeff is. Jeff is
29:34
Speaker 1: an inveterate um baseball better. And since you've been contributing
29:40
Speaker 1: to the Action Network, and since you have been talking
29:42
Speaker 1: a lot about the app, you are making a lot
29:44
Speaker 1: of baseball picks. Tell me how that's going for you
29:47
Speaker 1: and why you decided to do it. He goes to
29:49
Speaker 1: show you how weird game wins in general. Like, I
29:52
Speaker 1: know probably more about college basketball and football than any sport,
29:56
Speaker 1: and yet I am found I'm a significantly better baseball
30:00
Speaker 1: better even though I don't ever really know watch it
30:03
Speaker 1: or no. I'm sure it's luck, but I've started. I
30:05
Speaker 1: think I'm thirty seven and sixteen right now, and that's
30:09
Speaker 1: crazy for for uh, for baseball. I think what I
30:13
Speaker 1: like about it is I really like betting the over
30:16
Speaker 1: and unders because I think if you look at I
30:18
Speaker 1: think there's some value to be found if you look
30:21
Speaker 1: at weather, pitchers, lineups, etcetera. And I I've had a
30:25
Speaker 1: lot of success betting the over under, specifically the unders
30:30
Speaker 1: UH in cold weather games. I know that won't last forever,
30:33
Speaker 1: but it's been. You know, It's an example of why
30:35
Speaker 1: I actually like doing stuff with the Action Network. I
30:37
Speaker 1: would have never thought about betting on baseball. I would
30:40
Speaker 1: have probably said that seems like something for degenerates, and
30:43
Speaker 1: maybe it's just that I've become a degenerate, but I
30:46
Speaker 1: actually have enjoyed it quite a bit. Well, it's funny
30:49
Speaker 1: you say that. So like baseball is one of those
30:51
Speaker 1: sports where, um it is for hardcore every day gamblers.
30:58
Speaker 1: It is such a volume board with so many games
31:02
Speaker 1: that it's hard to just sort of dip in. It's
31:04
Speaker 1: hard to like, Okay, I'm gonna bet on the Cardinals
31:06
Speaker 1: and Cubs this weekend. If you haven't sort of kept
31:09
Speaker 1: up with the pictures, how managers are using the bullpen,
31:13
Speaker 1: who's playing, what, um like, what the weather is, all
31:16
Speaker 1: those kinds of things, it's really challenging. So the fact
31:19
Speaker 1: you're doing it as often as you do, I'm a
31:20
Speaker 1: little afraid for you. Yeah. Well, I don't know. I
31:24
Speaker 1: don't know why. I mean again, I'm sure it'll even out.
31:26
Speaker 1: I'm sure i'll I'll sort regress to the mean at
31:29
Speaker 1: some point. But I think, you know, it seemed to
31:32
Speaker 1: me again, who knows, but in April, especially when you're
31:36
Speaker 1: looking at weather patterns, you know, the ball doesn't fly.
31:40
Speaker 1: I've been I've been on every like I'm a Reds fan,
31:43
Speaker 1: and I know the Reds cannot score. So the unders
31:46
Speaker 1: on the Reds has been amazing this year because they
31:49
Speaker 1: can't hit. Therefore, starters under two hundred in batting average,
31:54
Speaker 1: and so betting the unders on Red's games this year
31:57
Speaker 1: is paid for my vacation. So it's a no as
32:00
Speaker 1: a fan that they have great pitching and no hitting.
32:02
Speaker 1: But as a as a gambler, it's been excellent. The
32:07
Speaker 1: Reds are an interesting team to me. They have not
32:11
Speaker 1: been relevant since so how do you even continue to
32:19
Speaker 1: root for a team like that. It's not even like
32:21
Speaker 1: you're rooting for a bad team. You're just rooting for
32:23
Speaker 1: a team that doesn't matter, like they have not mattered
32:26
Speaker 1: in forever. It's like a team. It's like a Southeastern
32:29
Speaker 1: team in football, right, Like no one really talks about
32:32
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers, you know, no one really talks about
32:35
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons, like no one talks about the Tampa
32:38
Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers. The Reds are one of those teams where
32:40
Speaker 1: I have a hard time figuring out why anybody would
32:42
Speaker 1: be a fan of that team. Well, I root for
32:45
Speaker 1: them in the sense of it gives me something to
32:47
Speaker 1: do in the off season. I root for them more
32:50
Speaker 1: of as a reason to go places, uh in the
32:53
Speaker 1: summer to watch games. I don't you know when you're
32:56
Speaker 1: a Kentucky sports fan, and I'm sure a lot of
32:58
Speaker 1: people are fans of these are like this, Every game
33:01
Speaker 1: is like living die. You don't get any fun games.
33:05
Speaker 1: Every game is if you lose. You're depressed with baseball.
33:09
Speaker 1: I enjoy it because they don't really care about any
33:11
Speaker 1: game particularly, and so I can just enjoy it. I
33:15
Speaker 1: guess you would say the way a normal human being
33:17
Speaker 1: would enjoy sports. But I'm not a normal human being
33:21
Speaker 1: when it comes to Kentucky. So that's what I like
33:23
Speaker 1: about the Reds because there's a hundred and sixty two games.
33:25
Speaker 1: Because I know that they're generally going to be terrible,
33:28
Speaker 1: No particular game or season really bothers me, and that
33:32
Speaker 1: makes it how many games will you watch? How many
33:35
Speaker 1: Reds games will you watch? Well, in the last couple
33:39
Speaker 1: of years, I've actually watched more. I mean I bought
33:41
Speaker 1: season tickets this year for the first time, and I've
33:44
Speaker 1: probably gone to I've gone to three or four already.
33:49
Speaker 1: I'll go to probably thirty during the year and then
33:52
Speaker 1: I give the others away and it's just you know,
33:55
Speaker 1: but it's what I consider baseball the ultimate background noise.
33:59
Speaker 1: It's a great thing to put on while you're doing
34:01
Speaker 1: other things. You know, if you miss a play, who cares.
34:04
Speaker 1: I think that's what makes it makes it work, how
34:08
Speaker 1: much they trust in you for season tickets to the
34:10
Speaker 1: Reds games. So I think we we. I'm I'm like
34:16
Speaker 1: right behind the plate and uh like I'm like eight
34:20
Speaker 1: rows back right behind the plate. It's it has its
34:22
Speaker 1: own like bar area. And I think the tickets are
34:25
Speaker 1: like seventy five bucks a game something like that. So
34:29
Speaker 1: that's not it. That's not an insignificant investment, right, Just
34:31
Speaker 1: it's like you put how many tickets you get two
34:35
Speaker 1: I just get to So it's it's a hundred and
34:38
Speaker 1: fifty bucks per ticket or whatever. Yeah, that's not that's
34:43
Speaker 1: like it's gonna be ten twelve grand for the year. Yeah,
34:46
Speaker 1: it's about a twelve grand. But I also consider it
34:49
Speaker 1: like like it's the kind of thing that I give
34:52
Speaker 1: them away to people as gifts. It's a good way.
34:54
Speaker 1: Like people I sort of know and I'm interested in
34:57
Speaker 1: talking to once a year, I can do it by
35:00
Speaker 1: giving them tickets. Be like, oh, hi, friend that I
35:03
Speaker 1: never speak to, here's a couple of tickets and uh,
35:06
Speaker 1: you know, it's a nice night you can go watch
35:08
Speaker 1: and then when Mike Trout or somebody's in town I
35:11
Speaker 1: can go. So I just feel like it's it's just
35:13
Speaker 1: a positive thing for everybody. I like that, all right, So,
35:16
Speaker 1: so that's not a bad thing. Do you think your
35:18
Speaker 1: twelve dollars would be better spent on Cincinnati Reds baseball
35:23
Speaker 1: or betting on Roadster in the Kentucky Derby? Well, that's
35:32
Speaker 1: a difficult question. Uh. I haven't broken down how much
35:35
Speaker 1: I like Roadster is a potential getting in my uh
35:39
Speaker 1: Triffeica pool. But I would say the Reds give me
35:42
Speaker 1: about twelve thousand dollars worth of entertainment. Kentucky can give
35:47
Speaker 1: me a million dollars worth of entertainment or a heart attack.
35:51
Speaker 1: With the Cincinnati Reds, I know exactly what I'm getting.
35:55
Speaker 1: It's always going to be disappointing, Like you're gonna have
35:57
Speaker 1: a nice night, You're gonna have a couple of It's
36:00
Speaker 1: not disappointing because I know, like I have a theory, Chad,
36:05
Speaker 1: I say this all the time. They're it's one of
36:07
Speaker 1: my life's less and life is about expectations. I think
36:12
Speaker 1: ninety percent of your happiness in life is about where
36:15
Speaker 1: you set your expectations. And most of the people who
36:18
Speaker 1: are unhappy in life. Part of the issue is their expectations.
36:22
Speaker 1: So for me, I set the reds expectations as it's
36:27
Speaker 1: going to be a nice night, I'm going to get
36:29
Speaker 1: a nice uh you know, stadium meal and uh, I'm
36:34
Speaker 1: gonna sit in the in the breeze. And if that's
36:36
Speaker 1: my expectations, then I'm always happy. I think you're right.
36:42
Speaker 1: I might be setting my expectations for life too high.
36:46
Speaker 1: Yeah it's not. But but I mean, you you want
36:47
Speaker 1: to do it for some things. But I didn't go
36:49
Speaker 1: a lot of what like like take this is we're
36:51
Speaker 1: getting off track here, but take relationships. Like if your
36:54
Speaker 1: expectation in life is that my significant other has to
36:58
Speaker 1: be perfect, you're destined to be miserable. But if your
37:02
Speaker 1: expectation is is my life better with this person in it?
37:06
Speaker 1: Then not, then that standard is can be met and
37:11
Speaker 1: you can be happy. So that's the way I learned
37:14
Speaker 1: many years ago. If you set expectations right, life is
37:17
Speaker 1: generally a positive experience. Oh my god, my wife has
37:22
Speaker 1: such low expectations. Was explains why she's still around after
37:27
Speaker 1: all these years. Well, I mean, she probably thinks that
37:30
Speaker 1: being with the Chad Millman is better than not being
37:34
Speaker 1: with him, and so if that's it, then she's happy.
37:38
Speaker 1: I think you've got that one entirely wrong, my friend.
37:40
Speaker 1: What should my expectations be if I came to Louisville
37:44
Speaker 1: for the Kentucky Derby. Um, we talked about the race
37:47
Speaker 1: for a few minutes, because they're they're basically right now
37:50
Speaker 1: like three sort of favorites and everybody else is in
37:55
Speaker 1: double digits. Like three. The three favorites right now are
38:00
Speaker 1: that that's a great race, though to make money on it,
38:03
Speaker 1: like like the standard that it is right now for
38:07
Speaker 1: the Derby, and this happens about once every three or
38:10
Speaker 1: four years. To me is the standard as to how
38:13
Speaker 1: the Derby is an awesome day of gambling. But but
38:16
Speaker 1: you're right if you can get three, if you I
38:20
Speaker 1: had somebody give me a tip once. It's just a
38:23
Speaker 1: local guy there at Churchill Downs, and it has been
38:26
Speaker 1: the tip that is the best tip anyone's ever given me.
38:29
Speaker 1: If you go back through history and look at the
38:31
Speaker 1: Derby in the last twelve or fifteen years, which is
38:34
Speaker 1: I would say, once the Internet has made it to
38:38
Speaker 1: where gambling has kind of evened out in horse racing,
38:42
Speaker 1: the Derby almost inevitably in the exacta and excuse me.
38:46
Speaker 1: The trifect and the super fector includes two of the
38:49
Speaker 1: three favorites, one medium shot, and one long shot. The
38:53
Speaker 1: SuperFect of the last four years two of the three favorites,
38:57
Speaker 1: one medium shot, one long shot. If you back and look,
39:00
Speaker 1: I think it's something like nine of the last twelve
39:03
Speaker 1: years have followed that pattern. And so to me, the
39:08
Speaker 1: key and gambling and for the just for the derby,
39:10
Speaker 1: because there's so many horses and so much stupid money.
39:13
Speaker 1: If you've got to look at the free three favorite
39:16
Speaker 1: and you've got to commit to two of them and
39:18
Speaker 1: one of them you've got to throw out, and so
39:21
Speaker 1: all of your betting patterns have to start with that.
39:23
Speaker 1: Which of the three favorites? Do I not believe it
39:26
Speaker 1: only once in the last fifteen years of the three
39:28
Speaker 1: favorites come one to three. So you've got to get
39:31
Speaker 1: rid of one of them, and that's the part. If
39:34
Speaker 1: you can get rid of the right one, then I
39:36
Speaker 1: think you have a really good chance of making money.
39:39
Speaker 1: And that's what I always do. So I look for
39:41
Speaker 1: two of the three favorites, two middle of the road
39:43
Speaker 1: horses in a long shot. I play with those five
39:46
Speaker 1: horses and if you can hit them, then you have
39:49
Speaker 1: a chance of making like serious money. So the three
39:53
Speaker 1: favorites right now are Beach and Roadster, who are both
39:57
Speaker 1: in the say seven to to five to one range,
40:02
Speaker 1: and Improbable, which is a Bob Bafford horse. Um, and
40:06
Speaker 1: that's it. Anywhere from five to one to eight to one.
40:10
Speaker 1: So very sort of superficially if you're looking at those
40:16
Speaker 1: three horses right now, knowing it's still like early in
40:18
Speaker 1: the week, and you know, whisper Wednesday hasn't happened when
40:21
Speaker 1: like everyone and the other wise guys start talking about
40:24
Speaker 1: which horses day like the best? Um, how should I
40:27
Speaker 1: even be going about my research for deciding Omaha Beach,
40:31
Speaker 1: Roadster or Improbable. Well, I'm I'm I'm not even Omaha
40:35
Speaker 1: Beach because I think Omah Beach is. You know, every
40:39
Speaker 1: two to three years you get a super talented horse.
40:42
Speaker 1: Now we've been blessed at the Derby in the last
40:44
Speaker 1: few years with a couple of those, not just uh,
40:48
Speaker 1: you know, not not not just American Pharaoh and and
40:50
Speaker 1: and and Justify, but other others as well that have
40:53
Speaker 1: come through. It had been very good. I think Omaha
40:55
Speaker 1: Beach is not quite on that level, but I'm putting
40:58
Speaker 1: Omaha Beach here. I haven't broken down the roads turning
41:02
Speaker 1: probable enough, but I would say this, I I it
41:05
Speaker 1: is very rare at the derby. Win Baffort's not even
41:08
Speaker 1: in the conversation. So I'm going to look at those
41:12
Speaker 1: two and one of the things I'm gonna look at
41:13
Speaker 1: specifically is how do they do in fields of six
41:17
Speaker 1: or more horses? And then I'm gonna really look to
41:20
Speaker 1: see when they have been tested and they have faced traffic,
41:25
Speaker 1: what happens, because I think the thing that's the hardest
41:28
Speaker 1: to predicted the derby is the traffic. No matter what,
41:31
Speaker 1: unless you're one of these horses like Justified, it just
41:33
Speaker 1: comes out at the beginning and just run away. You're
41:36
Speaker 1: gonna face traffic and some horses just don't like it.
41:40
Speaker 1: So those will be the things that I will look at.
41:42
Speaker 1: But I'm not leaving Omaha Beach out, so then I'm
41:45
Speaker 1: gonna drop one of those two. And then the key
41:48
Speaker 1: is figuring out the moderates and the long shots. And
41:52
Speaker 1: there really is a lot of local knowledge to that.
41:54
Speaker 1: You talk about Whisper Wednesday, But over the years I've
41:57
Speaker 1: hit the super fact on the on the Derby, I
42:00
Speaker 1: think two of the last five years and then three
42:03
Speaker 1: of the last seven when that's happened, it's always been
42:06
Speaker 1: because I've had the right long shot. And that really
42:09
Speaker 1: is something that for whatever reason, local knowledge seems to
42:13
Speaker 1: matter because they see that coming with the with the
42:17
Speaker 1: long shots how they work that day, and so Wednesday
42:19
Speaker 1: I do go out of the track Wednesday, That's my
42:22
Speaker 1: day to find the long shot I'm throwing in. I
42:25
Speaker 1: kind of wish I was coming down to Louisville and
42:27
Speaker 1: spending the week with you. You've got a new restaurant
42:29
Speaker 1: in Lexington, Like what happens for you the week of
42:32
Speaker 1: the week of the Derby? This week? Well, you see,
42:36
Speaker 1: you know what's weird is the Derby is one of
42:38
Speaker 1: these events that, like everybody in Kentucky has something about it.
42:43
Speaker 1: They like, you have the hardcore horse people right if
42:45
Speaker 1: they love it because of the horse action. It's also
42:48
Speaker 1: a massive party. I mean, I don't think unless you've
42:51
Speaker 1: ever been, I don't think people realize what a huge
42:54
Speaker 1: party it is. Rulville becomes for a weekend the most
42:58
Speaker 1: fun place in the country. And and I love Kentucky,
43:01
Speaker 1: but it's not like that any other weekend, but for
43:03
Speaker 1: one weekend, there are parties everywhere. Every night. The track
43:08
Speaker 1: is crazy. There are people from all over the world
43:10
Speaker 1: here and no matter what you do, it's fun. So
43:13
Speaker 1: I really enjoy it because I just like to float
43:16
Speaker 1: to different types of events. I went through a period
43:18
Speaker 1: that I went to all those parties. That period has
43:20
Speaker 1: kind of passed, so I kind of enjoy it now
43:23
Speaker 1: for the horse racing and the people watching and uh,
43:26
Speaker 1: the horse racing, they really start on Wednesday. On Wednesday
43:30
Speaker 1: becomes the day that a lot of the sort of
43:33
Speaker 1: hardcore horse people go. Thursday they call Furby. That's when
43:37
Speaker 1: the kind of people, it's the people of Kentucky social
43:40
Speaker 1: gathering Oaks and Derby have now become absolute wild scenes
43:45
Speaker 1: that like, it's hard to say it has any culture
43:48
Speaker 1: beyond trying to make sure you get home alive. Uh
43:56
Speaker 1: all right, well listen. That show is a Kentucky sports
43:58
Speaker 1: radio contributor to the Action Network. UM. I hope you
44:02
Speaker 1: make it through the week alive. We'd like you to
44:03
Speaker 1: continue doing stuff for us, so that would be great.
44:05
Speaker 1: If nothing else, I think the Reds need you behind
44:08
Speaker 1: home plate showing them on. UM, please get through the
44:12
Speaker 1: get through the week safely. Let me say this about
44:15
Speaker 1: for people who are listening to this. You may be
44:17
Speaker 1: like casual I mean hardcore horse racing people no more
44:20
Speaker 1: about it than than than me. But the casual horse
44:23
Speaker 1: racing people, here's what I've found over the years. The
44:27
Speaker 1: surprising money out there is in the lead up to
44:31
Speaker 1: the Derby races, because the Derby is full of stupid money.
44:35
Speaker 1: But the Derby, you know, people care about it enough.
44:39
Speaker 1: But there's also a lot of smart money. The races
44:42
Speaker 1: on Derby Day that are not the Derby. That track
44:45
Speaker 1: is filled with idiots betting, and there is so much
44:49
Speaker 1: room to win on those races, races about five through
44:53
Speaker 1: pen on the card that if you will do your research,
44:57
Speaker 1: I think Breeders Cup Early and Derby Early Day it's
45:02
Speaker 1: where you make money. It's good advice. People should check
45:07
Speaker 1: out what you're gonna be writing on Action Network so
45:09
Speaker 1: they can what you and Drew Franklin do so they
45:11
Speaker 1: can get a little bit advice on that. Matt Jones,
45:14
Speaker 1: thank you, brother, appreciate it. Hey, thank you all right,
45:18
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. To Chris Raybond from the Action Network.
45:21
Speaker 1: Thank you very much to Matt Jones from Kentucky Sports
45:23
Speaker 1: Radio and the Action Network. This has been the favorites
45:28
Speaker 1: the podcast. Download the podcast from Apple Podcast, write a review,
45:33
Speaker 1: rate US subscribe. Downloaded from radio dot com, slash the
45:38
Speaker 1: Action Network. Until next time, I'm Chad Nolman.