Latest / Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update / More Red Flags from Main Street? | S2 E056 | 07-08-25

Transcript

More Red Flags from Main Street? | S2 E056 | 07-08-25 · Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

• 0:00
  Megan Horneman: The optimism around business owners is starting to wane again.
• 0:03
  Megan Horneman: It is Tuesday, July the 8th, and this is Markets with Megan.
• 0:06
  Megan Horneman: If you like this podcast, please you can subscribe.
• 0:09
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• 0:13
  Megan Horneman: But we want to break down the economic data, like we do every day with the Markets with Megan, and today we're talking about the Small Business Optimism Index that we received this morning.
• 0:22
  Megan Horneman: We like to look at this because small businesses are a big portion of the US economy and this survey does give us some insight into their future plans for spending and what they see with inflation.
• 0:35
  Megan Horneman: What we saw in the month of June, that optimism actually slipped.
• 0:37
  Megan Horneman: It declined for the fifth time now.
• 0:39
  Megan Horneman: So it's declined in five of the six months for this year and we didn't see big drops like we saw during the Liberation Day declines and even the month of April, the month of March, but what we did see was it slide to what the investor or economists had expected for this time around.
• 0:57
  Megan Horneman: But let's dig into some of the details here.
• 1:00
  Megan Horneman: What we saw was that optimism around whether it is their increasing capex spending this again is a contributor to GDP that weakened.
• 1:10
  Megan Horneman: We saw those plans to increase inventory still remains weak.
• 1:15
  Megan Horneman: We actually saw inventory satisfaction decline as well.
• 1:18
  Megan Horneman: Does this have to do with tariffs?
• 1:20
  Megan Horneman: We're not sure yet, but this is something that we'll monitor.
• 1:23
  Megan Horneman: The easing of credit conditions that remains weak as the Fed continues to remain on hold with interest rates.
• 1:30
  Megan Horneman: Also, we saw the positive expectations for earnings trends that remains weak as well.
• 1:35
  Megan Horneman: What we did see was some increases in the expectation for higher selling prices.
• 1:41
  Megan Horneman: That's what we're going to take away from this report and that's what we're going to focus on, because the Fed will be looking at that.
• 1:47
  Megan Horneman: And does this come into the CPI and those inflation indicators that the Fed wants to see because of those lingering effects from the tariffs?
• 1:57
  Megan Horneman: Now economic news is taking kind of a backseat to all these regular headlines.
• 2:01
  Megan Horneman: We're getting around the tariffs, which are set to expire tomorrow.
• 2:04
  Megan Horneman: We now see that this is going to be pushed out to the August 1st, but we're getting some other details around specific imports that the Trump administration is targeting.
• 2:14
  Megan Horneman: So this is what's moving the markets today.
• 2:17
  Megan Horneman: We'll be back again this week with some more news.
• 2:20
  Megan Horneman: As we see it, like we said, there's a lot of stuff coming out of Washington, so that will be moving markets as well this week, but we also will be starting off earnings season in the next couple of weeks as well, so that will be another thing for the markets to focus on.
• 2:35
  Megan Horneman: That's all we have today.
• 2:37
  Megan Horneman: If you want a history of this podcast, you can go to marketswithmegan.
• 2:39
  Megan Horneman: fm.
• 2:40
  Megan Horneman: Thank you.