Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Never Winning Again | NHL Stanley Cup Finals & MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/11/26
Transcript
- 0:17Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
- 0:20Speaker 1: your chips, the black coffee on the felt.
- 0:23Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
- 0:26Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
- 0:30Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
- 0:33Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade
- 0:36Speaker 2: from the floor. Your name steal means something in somebody
- 0:41Speaker 2: for show. Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
- 0:46Speaker 2: No hold on, hold on nothing nice not no.
- 0:58Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on.
- 1:02Speaker 2: Me, but it don't get the crown.
- 1:15Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
- 1:19Speaker 3: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with you?
- 1:30Speaker 4: Toadstool Sports, Thursday, June eleventh, Do not listen to me
- 1:35Speaker 4: on anything that I say. Ever, we're on a bad
- 1:39Speaker 4: run over the last couple of days whatever under in Yankees, Indians, whatever,
- 1:45Speaker 4: that had no chance, whatever. There was an error early
- 1:51Speaker 4: on that definitely messed things up, and then the Yankee
- 1:55Speaker 4: side of it couldn't hold on to what could have
- 1:56Speaker 4: been a push, but Rodon couldn't hold on to it either,
- 2:00Speaker 4: and then of course the Yankees wind up winning anyway.
- 2:03Speaker 4: So really we get yeah, the best of everything in
- 2:05Speaker 4: that fucking game. I'm gonna give out one play today
- 2:08Speaker 4: in baseball, and it is going to fucking lose because
- 2:11Speaker 4: I hate this board. I feel like I'm forcing it.
- 2:14Speaker 4: I don't even like this play. Do not listen to me.
- 2:17Speaker 3: Whatever.
- 2:18Speaker 2: Uh.
- 2:18Speaker 4: The first game up is Arizona at Miami. Miami is
- 2:22Speaker 4: on the verge of a sweep. You know, I talk
- 2:24Speaker 4: about when a team is on the verge of a sweep,
- 2:27Speaker 4: the other team usually will have a little bit more
- 2:29Speaker 4: motivation to try to avoid the sweep, especially after losing
- 2:32Speaker 4: eight to nothing yesterday, which I did not think was
- 2:35Speaker 4: gonna happen. But this might not be the best matchup
- 2:39Speaker 4: here for Arizona Miami. I don't know if they really.
- 2:42Speaker 3: Have a look ahead. Maybe they do.
- 2:43Speaker 4: They have Pittsburgh next, possible they look ahead to that game.
- 2:46Speaker 4: Pittsburgh has been alright. These bullpens, Miami probably has the
- 2:52Speaker 4: better bullpen.
- 2:53Speaker 3: They use three guys out of it.
- 2:54Speaker 4: Yesterday Arizona used three as well, but lighter usage. Miami
- 2:59Speaker 4: is seventh in bullpen here arranged by Whip, Arizona eighth,
- 3:04Speaker 4: but their era is not that good, so Miami's bullpen
- 3:07Speaker 4: is better by a bit.
- 3:09Speaker 3: Neither offense has been that good.
- 3:11Speaker 4: Miami nineteen Arizona down at twenty five. Now Merrill Kelly
- 3:16Speaker 4: pitching for Arizona, and he is the only legit starter here,
- 3:21Speaker 4: at least for Arizona. I mean, not the only legit
- 3:25Speaker 4: starter on Arizona's team, but I mean he's a legit
- 3:28Speaker 4: starter in Miami's going with a bullpen game in this
- 3:30Speaker 4: game is what I mean to say.
- 3:32Speaker 3: Kelly has not been.
- 3:33Speaker 4: Good so far though this year, even though he came
- 3:37Speaker 4: back on a delay he was injured, pitched poorly and
- 3:41Speaker 4: then started pitching better, but he also was bad.
- 3:43Speaker 3: In his last outing.
- 3:44Speaker 4: He's got a five point seven to one ERA one
- 3:47Speaker 4: point four to nine whip. He's been better on the
- 3:49Speaker 4: road though, four point five roady RA so he might
- 3:53Speaker 4: pitch better here because it is more a pitcher friendly
- 3:55Speaker 4: environment than his home stadium is in Arizona.
- 3:58Speaker 3: Though He's been on a zone of most.
- 4:00Speaker 4: Of his career, so you would think he'd be used
- 4:02Speaker 4: to that, and his career numbers are not anywhere near
- 4:06Speaker 4: this bad.
- 4:08Speaker 3: But he's struggled. Man.
- 4:09Speaker 4: He's had multiple walks in his last three outings. He's
- 4:12Speaker 4: got some control issues right now. His strike out rate
- 4:14Speaker 4: is really low even for him. Hit rate is too high.
- 4:18Speaker 4: He's allowed too many home runs, his walk rates not
- 4:20Speaker 4: that good. These are not numbers that I would really
- 4:23Speaker 4: want to trust. Although, like I said, he did get better,
- 4:26Speaker 4: like for most of May, he was better, so you
- 4:29Speaker 4: got to give him that. But he faced some weak
- 4:31Speaker 4: offenses in there too, Giants twice, Rockies, although it was
- 4:35Speaker 4: in course field.
- 4:37Speaker 3: Mets.
- 4:38Speaker 4: Miami's not exactly his strong offense, but Kelly does not
- 4:41Speaker 4: do well against them. Forty one at bats, eleven to
- 4:43Speaker 4: one strikeout, walk ratio is good. Three forty one average
- 4:47Speaker 4: nine to eighteen ops not good. Tyler Phillips getting the
- 4:52Speaker 4: start for Miami. He's kind of young, still a converted reliever.
- 4:59Speaker 4: Two point eighty one point three to six whip not
- 5:02Speaker 4: very good, though he's been good at home though, point
- 5:05Speaker 4: nine to eight e r rate at home. But most
- 5:07Speaker 4: of this is in relief appearances. I don't even know
- 5:10Speaker 4: how many actual starts he's made. He started two games,
- 5:15Speaker 4: but he usually goes fewer than five innings, So I
- 5:18Speaker 4: don't know what we're gonna get out of this guy here.
- 5:20Speaker 4: It looks like they were going to let him try
- 5:22Speaker 4: to get to five innings last time. He didn't make
- 5:24Speaker 4: it against Tampa he did make it five innings the
- 5:28Speaker 4: previous outing those are I assume it's two starts, and
- 5:33Speaker 4: the one that he made it was against the Mets, because.
- 5:35Speaker 3: Of course it was.
- 5:37Speaker 4: I don't really trust Phillips here either. He's got a
- 5:39Speaker 4: high walk rate. His hit rate is low, though, but
- 5:43Speaker 4: that is a bad walk rate. His strikeout rate is
- 5:45Speaker 4: not great either. I don't see much to like here.
- 5:49Speaker 4: His numbers are good against Arizona, but we only have
- 5:51Speaker 4: seven at bats here. Six hitters have faced him one
- 5:54Speaker 4: forty three average, three ninety three oh ps two to
- 5:57Speaker 4: one strikeout walk ratio.
- 6:01Speaker 3: I think this game looks like an over to me.
- 6:05Speaker 3: That might be the way that I would look at
- 6:06Speaker 3: this game.
- 6:08Speaker 4: I'm not gonna give out a play on it, but
- 6:10Speaker 4: I think that's probably the way I would lean here. Yeah,
- 6:14Speaker 4: I don't like the pitching setup for either team here.
- 6:16Speaker 3: Where is it?
- 6:17Speaker 4: The money looks like it agrees sixty percent of the
- 6:19Speaker 4: tickets on the over ninety four percent of the cash
- 6:22Speaker 4: on the over totals eight and a half.
- 6:25Speaker 3: Juice to the over. But that's fairly reasonable though.
- 6:27Speaker 4: I know Miami pitcher friendly park, but I think the
- 6:31Speaker 4: offenses could get going in this game, although you have
- 6:34Speaker 4: to worry about maybe distracted hitting because it's getaway day
- 6:38Speaker 4: and these teams are traveling after this whatever, getting ready
- 6:41Speaker 4: for the next series. Money is also backing Miami's bullpend game.
- 6:45Speaker 3: Here.
- 6:46Speaker 4: Professional money seems to not like Merrill Kelly. He's got
- 6:49Speaker 4: Arizona's got fifty six percent of the tickets seventy two
- 6:53Speaker 4: the cash on Miami at a pretty small price minus
- 6:58Speaker 4: lower than minus one twenty.
- 7:00Speaker 3: So do with that in for what you want. I
- 7:01Speaker 3: don't really disagree with that. Miami may be.
- 7:05Speaker 4: The right side there, all right. Next up is going
- 7:08Speaker 4: to be the one play that I have, and you
- 7:10Speaker 4: know it sucks. We're never gonna win another play ever
- 7:16Speaker 4: on the show. I don't even know why I'm giving
- 7:18Speaker 4: out any plays here.
- 7:19Speaker 3: I don't like the board at all.
- 7:21Speaker 4: Over nine and a half Minnesota Detroit because they fucked
- 7:25Speaker 4: me on an under the other day. Both games in
- 7:28Speaker 4: the series have gone over, so obviously that means this
- 7:31Speaker 4: one's clearly gonna go over, right, Yeah, probably not. It's
- 7:33Speaker 4: probably gonna go under, just because I said that.
- 7:36Speaker 3: Nine and a half.
- 7:37Speaker 4: It's a big number though, I mean, the oddsmakers are
- 7:39Speaker 4: kind of telling you something with that number with offenses
- 7:43Speaker 4: that haven't really been that good, although again, these teams
- 7:46Speaker 4: have scored enough runs in this series to get it done.
- 7:49Speaker 3: So can't find an over nine out there.
- 7:52Speaker 4: If you can, then obviously you could do that if
- 7:54Speaker 4: there's an over nine minus one twenty or something that's
- 7:57Speaker 4: better because nine is a key number. Teams have to
- 8:00Speaker 4: break a four to four tie, so the nine is key.
- 8:03Speaker 4: I could only find nine and a half out there, though,
- 8:06Speaker 4: But I think this is gonna be a game where
- 8:08Speaker 4: we get runs. These teams have split the series so far,
- 8:12Speaker 4: so I think both teams will show up. We've had
- 8:15Speaker 4: double digit runs scored in both games so far, although
- 8:19Speaker 4: the loser has only scored four in each. But I
- 8:22Speaker 4: think we're gonna get some runs here. Minnesota and Well,
- 8:27Speaker 4: a big part of this handicap is fading these bullpens.
- 8:30Speaker 4: Minnesota's bullpen is ass and they used five guys yesterday.
- 8:34Speaker 4: Detroit's bullpen is not that much better and they used four,
- 8:38Speaker 4: So we can fade these bullpens here. Both bullpens have
- 8:41Speaker 4: an ERA above four. Minnesota's twenty eighth based on whip
- 8:46Speaker 4: they're bad, Detroit not much better at twenty second. These
- 8:50Speaker 4: teams offenses haven't been that good, but Detroit twentieth, Minnesota sixteenth,
- 8:56Speaker 4: I think they can at least get something done against
- 8:58Speaker 4: pitchers that they're familiar with. And that's where I'm going
- 9:00Speaker 4: with this kind of zebbi matth Us this picture for
- 9:03Speaker 4: the Twins, and I do like him, but there are
- 9:07Speaker 4: some things I don't like about him in this game,
- 9:09Speaker 4: and he's fucked us over recently, so fuck him and
- 9:13Speaker 4: watching He's gonna go out there and throw a perfect
- 9:15Speaker 4: game and you know, fuck us over again.
- 9:17Speaker 3: Here he's got a four point one five ERA. One
- 9:20Speaker 3: point zero.
- 9:20Speaker 4: Nine whip is good. I think he's good generally. He's
- 9:24Speaker 4: got talent. He hasn't really been good yet in the
- 9:27Speaker 4: majors though, but one red flag here so far as
- 9:31Speaker 4: he's been awful on the road, he's got an eight
- 9:33Speaker 4: point seven to one road RA. This is also a
- 9:36Speaker 4: day game, and he's been terrible in the day. I
- 9:38Speaker 4: usually don't look at day night splits, but he's got
- 9:41Speaker 4: a five point one to nine day ERA, So I
- 9:44Speaker 4: think this looks bad for Matthews here. He was good
- 9:47Speaker 4: in his last doubting but it was against Kansas City
- 9:51Speaker 4: at home, and Kansas City I believe is the lowest
- 9:54Speaker 4: scoring road team in baseball. They absolutely suck offensively on
- 9:59Speaker 4: the road. And he's still had four walks in that
- 10:01Speaker 4: game and two strikeouts. That is not a good sign.
- 10:05Speaker 4: His overall strikeout walk race is fine, though, and his
- 10:08Speaker 4: hit rate is good, so I'm not gonna complain about
- 10:11Speaker 4: really any of his overall numbers here, but I don't
- 10:14Speaker 4: like this matchup. He was really bad in the previous
- 10:17Speaker 4: game against Pittsburgh, which I think we lost on an
- 10:20Speaker 4: under in that one.
- 10:21Speaker 3: Fuck you Zebulon. Matthews has not been.
- 10:24Speaker 4: Good against Detroit in his history thirty three at bats,
- 10:28Speaker 4: three ZHO three average, allowed nine to ten ops, ten
- 10:31Speaker 4: to five strike out walk ratio. So Detroit is one
- 10:34Speaker 4: team that is familiar with him, and I think some
- 10:36Speaker 4: of Matthews some of the reason why he's been okay
- 10:39Speaker 4: so far. I think it's because he faced some offenses
- 10:42Speaker 4: that weren't familiar with him. Although I think he is
- 10:44Speaker 4: getting better, but this does not look like an ideal
- 10:46Speaker 4: matchup for him. Keeter Montero pitching for Detroit, He's okay.
- 10:52Speaker 4: I know we're going to gainst a couple of guys
- 10:53Speaker 4: that have good whips. I know three point nine to
- 10:56Speaker 4: five VRA one point zero three whip. He's been worse
- 10:59Speaker 4: at home four point two six HOMEYRA, So we're getting
- 11:02Speaker 4: the better of the home roads splits here for going
- 11:05Speaker 4: over fading both pitchers here. He's also bad during the
- 11:09Speaker 4: day five point zero six day ERA, so we're getting
- 11:13Speaker 4: the better of the day night splits going against both
- 11:16Speaker 4: starters here as well. Montero and his last outing only
- 11:20Speaker 4: had one strikeout against Seattle. That usually is a red
- 11:23Speaker 4: flag to me. He's had some low strikeout numbers recently.
- 11:27Speaker 3: I mean, he's been.
- 11:28Speaker 4: Surprisingly good for Detroit this year as a guy who
- 11:32Speaker 4: he is still young, and they had him working as
- 11:34Speaker 4: like a long.
- 11:35Speaker 3: Relief guy and a spot starter.
- 11:37Speaker 4: He's in the rotation partially because they have so many injuries,
- 11:41Speaker 4: and he's been all right.
- 11:42Speaker 3: He's got a really low hit rate. His walk rate's
- 11:44Speaker 3: not that bad.
- 11:45Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is really low though, and he is
- 11:48Speaker 4: fly ball heavy, although it hasn't translated into home runs yet. Really,
- 11:52Speaker 4: Minnesota doesn't have that much experience against him, even though
- 11:55Speaker 4: I know I said they're familiar with him. They have
- 11:57Speaker 4: four guys, four guys we've seen him for twenty at bats,
- 12:01Speaker 4: but they've hit him fine, three point fifty average, eleven
- 12:05Speaker 4: hundred ops. So I think there are a lot of
- 12:08Speaker 4: indicators towards an over here. All of the splits line
- 12:11Speaker 4: up against both starting pitchers here, I don't like either bullpen.
- 12:15Speaker 4: This is the best I got over in Minnesota and Detroit,
- 12:20Speaker 4: the under has fifty eight percent of the tickets, which
- 12:23Speaker 4: makes no sense to me, ninety five percent of the
- 12:26Speaker 4: cash on the over. So at least the read right
- 12:28Speaker 4: now is saying over. The read is also indicating towards
- 12:32Speaker 4: Detroit seventy per tickets, seventy nine percent of the cash.
- 12:35Speaker 4: On Detroit, they're favored at around minus one thirty. So
- 12:40Speaker 4: the professional money and the odds makers are all kind
- 12:42Speaker 4: of telling you they don't like Zebulon in this game.
- 12:46Speaker 3: So do with that information what you want. Whatever.
- 12:51Speaker 4: That's it, All right, Hello everybody, Gerald Kyle, what's up?
- 13:00Speaker 4: Dirty Sock flat Earth grappler? What's freedom? What is freedom?
- 13:05Speaker 4: Two fifty? I feel like I know what that is,
- 13:07Speaker 4: but I don't remember. I don't know what the hell
- 13:10Speaker 4: is that.
- 13:11Speaker 3: I have no idea.
- 13:14Speaker 4: All right, next game is Saint Louis and the Mets.
- 13:17Speaker 4: I got yesterday's game wrong, the Mets. Embarrassing performance from
- 13:22Speaker 4: them again. I don't know what the hell this is
- 13:25Speaker 4: that I'm looking at?
- 13:26Speaker 3: What is this year?
- 13:28Speaker 4: Just ridiculous memes going on here? I don't know what
- 13:30Speaker 4: the hell this is. I see Jamison tie On, I
- 13:33Speaker 4: don't even know who this upside down white Sox player
- 13:36Speaker 4: is here?
- 13:37Speaker 3: And then Goussman here. What the hell is this shit?
- 13:40Speaker 4: Gousman with like a what is that a lightsaber that's
- 13:43Speaker 4: exploding a firecracker.
- 13:46Speaker 3: I don't know what's.
- 13:46Speaker 4: Going on here, Jameison tie On drinking tea like a homosexual.
- 13:52Speaker 3: I have no idea anyway.
- 13:55Speaker 4: New York Mets. They're on the version of getting swept.
- 13:58Speaker 4: I don't want to get this channel ban though. Will
- 14:02Speaker 4: Saint Louis complete the sweep? I don't know, And I
- 14:04Speaker 4: don't think Saint Louis is good man. I think they're
- 14:07Speaker 4: not as good as their record makes it look. I
- 14:09Speaker 4: think the Mets are better than the record makes it look,
- 14:12Speaker 4: which is why the Mets have been.
- 14:13Speaker 3: Favored in every game in the series.
- 14:15Speaker 4: But you could kind of predict they wouldn't win the
- 14:18Speaker 4: first game because it was a return home spot and
- 14:21Speaker 4: that's a tough spot. They were returning cross country. I
- 14:24Speaker 4: thought they bounced back yesterday. But my guess is they
- 14:27Speaker 4: used David Peterson.
- 14:29Speaker 3: Is that why they lost? Let me take a look here, Ah,
- 14:34Speaker 3: that is exactly How did I know? That is exactly
- 14:37Speaker 3: why they lost.
- 14:37Speaker 4: Although they're opener didn't dwell either Warren, but David Peterson
- 14:42Speaker 4: came in and totally fucked them in that game.
- 14:44Speaker 3: How did I know? How did I guess?
- 14:46Speaker 4: So that's why the Mets lost that game. Mets should
- 14:50Speaker 4: get some better pitching in this game, though, Mets should
- 14:53Speaker 4: be highly.
- 14:53Speaker 3: Motivated to avoid the sweep.
- 14:55Speaker 4: There's a reason why they're favored even though they have
- 14:57Speaker 4: the worst record here. The oddsmakers are telling there's not
- 15:01Speaker 4: much of a gap between these two teams, and in fact,
- 15:03Speaker 4: the Mets are favored by more than home field here,
- 15:06Speaker 4: So they're telling you the Mets should be the better
- 15:09Speaker 4: team in this particular matchup, at the very least. Bullpen wise,
- 15:13Speaker 4: the Mets did use bullpen arms yesterday because it was
- 15:16Speaker 4: a bullpen game. These four guys out of the bullpen.
- 15:19Speaker 4: That's not great. Saint Louis's bullpen is more rested. They
- 15:22Speaker 4: used two Saint Louis's bullpen has actually been okay recently.
- 15:26Speaker 4: They're sixteenth now in bullpen and their eras below four now,
- 15:31Speaker 4: so their bullpen can compete here. These bullpens are not
- 15:35Speaker 4: that far off from each other in this matchup just
- 15:37Speaker 4: because of the rest, although the Mets generally are the
- 15:40Speaker 4: better bullpen number five, but that advantage is somewhat gone
- 15:45Speaker 4: right now because of the rest scenario.
- 15:49Speaker 3: Hitting wise, the Mets are still off. While they're twenty ninth,
- 15:52Speaker 3: Saint Louis is fourteenth.
- 15:54Speaker 4: Obviously, the Mets do not have an offensive edge against
- 15:57Speaker 4: basically anybody except maybe San Diego Go.
- 16:01Speaker 3: My man Hunter Dobbins is.
- 16:02Speaker 4: Pitching for Saint Louis here, the Yankee hater Hunter Dobbins,
- 16:08Speaker 4: I like him. I'm not sure he's a great pitcher,
- 16:11Speaker 4: but I think he's a serviceable pitcher. He's got a
- 16:14Speaker 4: two point seven to seventy RA one point three to
- 16:17Speaker 4: one whip is not very good, though he's been bad
- 16:20Speaker 4: on the road so far six point two to three
- 16:22Speaker 4: roady RA, although remember this is a really small sample size.
- 16:26Speaker 4: He's made three starts so far. He's gotten a little
- 16:29Speaker 4: bit better with each start, so that's good that he's
- 16:31Speaker 4: moving in the right direction.
- 16:32Speaker 3: Here.
- 16:33Speaker 4: He had a five inning shutout last time out against
- 16:35Speaker 4: the Reds and picked up a win. Decent outing from
- 16:38Speaker 4: him there. His strikeout rate is pretty good right now.
- 16:41Speaker 4: It's usually not that high though his hit rate is fine.
- 16:44Speaker 4: His walk rate's a little bit high so far, but
- 16:47Speaker 4: he is moving in the right direction. He's facing a
- 16:49Speaker 4: weak met offense here. They only have eight at bats
- 16:53Speaker 4: against him. Four their hitters have faced him before him
- 16:56Speaker 4: one extra base hit a double from Alvarez. He's the
- 16:58Speaker 4: only player on the team that has any hits against him.
- 17:01Speaker 4: They got no strikeouts, no walks. Do with that info
- 17:04Speaker 4: what you want? Two for eight, no strikeouts, no walks.
- 17:08Speaker 4: Dobbins might do okay here because he's like I said,
- 17:11Speaker 4: he's moving in the right direction. This is probably a
- 17:14Speaker 4: decent matchup for him, and they haven't really seen that
- 17:17Speaker 4: much of him. Although I think based on talent, I
- 17:19Speaker 4: think Christian Scott is the better pitcher. He's got a
- 17:23Speaker 4: two point five RRA. His whip is not that good though,
- 17:26Speaker 4: one point three to one. These guys have similar rays
- 17:30Speaker 4: and whips right now. Scott has been worse at home
- 17:33Speaker 4: than on the road, but his home e ray is
- 17:35Speaker 4: not bad.
- 17:36Speaker 3: Three point two seven.
- 17:38Speaker 4: He pitched fine in his last game, which we got
- 17:40Speaker 4: to win on that one, but it was mostly a
- 17:42Speaker 4: situational spot there, fading San Diego there.
- 17:47Speaker 3: Scott has actually been pretty good though. Over his last
- 17:49Speaker 3: three starts.
- 17:50Speaker 4: He's got at least five innings in all threes, allowed
- 17:53Speaker 4: one run total across that span, and he's gotten his
- 17:58Speaker 4: walk right down a bit there, so he's got whatever.
- 18:01Speaker 4: This is a sixteen to six strikeout walk ratio with
- 18:04Speaker 4: that span. That's not excellent, but it's not horrible. His
- 18:07Speaker 4: hit rate is pretty good right now, it's low. His
- 18:09Speaker 4: walk rate is definitely too high.
- 18:11Speaker 3: That's where he's got to fix what he's doing.
- 18:14Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is good over one per inning by
- 18:17Speaker 4: quite a bit, but yeah, that walk rate's got to
- 18:19Speaker 4: go down. That's the problem right now with him. Saint
- 18:23Speaker 4: Louis has never seen him, so he should have an
- 18:25Speaker 4: advantage here over Saint Louis because they've never faced him before.
- 18:30Speaker 4: I think my read on this game is probably a
- 18:32Speaker 4: first five under, though I do kind of lean to
- 18:35Speaker 4: the Mets a little bit here. I think Scott might
- 18:39Speaker 4: match up a little bit better, and that plus the
- 18:42Speaker 4: motivational edge they might have. Although their bullpen edge is
- 18:45Speaker 4: a little bit erased, but they didn't really use any
- 18:48Speaker 4: of their best bullpen arms yesterday, like one of the
- 18:50Speaker 4: guys they us was Peterson obviously, so they've they're around
- 18:54Speaker 4: minus one forty something. The price is that for a reason.
- 18:58Speaker 4: Fifty four percent of tickets fifty percent of the cash
- 19:01Speaker 4: on the Mets, so the money is coming in towards
- 19:03Speaker 4: the Mets. I probably don't disagree as far as the under, though.
- 19:07Speaker 4: The full game total is surprisingly high at nine, so
- 19:11Speaker 4: the odds makers are kind of telling you they think
- 19:13Speaker 4: they're gonna be runs in this game. Money is coming
- 19:15Speaker 4: in on the over as well, seventy of the tickets
- 19:18Speaker 4: on the under, seventy three percent of the cash on
- 19:20Speaker 4: the over. But to me, it looks like it's gonna
- 19:22Speaker 4: be a slow starting game. Like I think both starters
- 19:26Speaker 4: might have decent matchups there, although you worry about Dobbins
- 19:30Speaker 4: on the road, but it's such a small sample size
- 19:32Speaker 4: to look at there. Yeah, I think first five under
- 19:36Speaker 4: makes some sense and slightly into the Mets as well there.
- 19:41Speaker 4: All right, No, I'm gonna keep doing baseball. Baseball is
- 19:47Speaker 4: like the is the main focus during during the summer Dobbins, No,
- 19:55Speaker 4: a Hunter Dobbins is. He was on the Red Sox
- 19:58Speaker 4: last year, and he was notorious or hating the Yankees
- 20:02Speaker 4: and talking shit about the Yankees all the time, all
- 20:05Speaker 4: of which is awesome. And then I believe his father
- 20:08Speaker 4: played baseball or something, but was like a minor league player,
- 20:13Speaker 4: and I don't I forget exactly what he said.
- 20:15Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 20:16Speaker 4: People were trying to fact check something that he said
- 20:18Speaker 4: about his father's career, and nobody could like actually determine
- 20:21Speaker 4: whether it was true or not. I don't remember exactly
- 20:24Speaker 4: what it was. But his father was like a minor
- 20:27Speaker 4: league pitcher or something. All right, Texas at Kansas City,
- 20:33Speaker 4: these teams to split the series of arm. Kansas City
- 20:36Speaker 4: did just lose a three game win streak, but Texas,
- 20:39Speaker 4: I believe just ended a losing streak, if I'm not mistaken.
- 20:42Speaker 4: I don't know they didn't never mind, I thought they
- 20:44Speaker 4: were on a losing streak. I don't know why I
- 20:45Speaker 4: thought that. So I think both teams are gonna be
- 20:49Speaker 4: motivated here. Maybe Kansas City a little bit flat after
- 20:52Speaker 4: losing a win streak, but it was only a three
- 20:54Speaker 4: game win streak, so I don't think that really.
- 20:56Speaker 3: Matters that much.
- 20:57Speaker 4: As far as the bullpens, Texas is the magnificantly better bullpen,
- 21:01Speaker 4: but they did use four guys.
- 21:03Speaker 3: Out of it yesterday.
- 21:04Speaker 4: Kansas City used everyone out of their bullpen though, so
- 21:07Speaker 4: Kansas City is definitely at a bullpen disadvantage here. I
- 21:11Speaker 4: would not want anything to do with that bullpen here.
- 21:14Speaker 4: They're twenty ninth in whip. They're actually tied actually with
- 21:19Speaker 4: the Reds in whip for dead lass and their rays
- 21:23Speaker 4: a little bit better, but yeah, they suck.
- 21:27Speaker 3: And then as far as Texas bullpen, they're pretty good.
- 21:30Speaker 3: They're number six.
- 21:31Speaker 4: They have one of the best rays as well, So
- 21:33Speaker 4: there is a big bullpen edge for Texas here, even
- 21:36Speaker 4: though they did use some of their guys yesterday. Kansas
- 21:41Speaker 4: City is twenty fifth in offense and Texas is twentieth,
- 21:44Speaker 4: so Texas is just the better overall team. Man Kumar
- 21:49Speaker 4: Rockers pitching for Texas, though he's been okay three point
- 21:53Speaker 4: five to four e R, but his whip is not
- 21:55Speaker 4: that good one point three to three. He's been bad
- 21:58Speaker 4: on the road as well, four point six to six.
- 22:01Speaker 4: Rodier ring Rocker is he's a guy you want to
- 22:05Speaker 4: you want to back more so when he's at home,
- 22:08Speaker 4: which makes sense because Texas is a very pitcher friendly ballpark.
- 22:11Speaker 3: He's not as good on the road.
- 22:13Speaker 4: This might be a bad environment for him because Kansas
- 22:16Speaker 4: City has, I guess, become a hitter friendly park now
- 22:19Speaker 4: that they move the walls. And Rocker was good in
- 22:22Speaker 4: his last outing, but that was of course, at home
- 22:25Speaker 4: against Cleveland, and he pitched against Kansas City the previous
- 22:28Speaker 4: game at home, of course, and shut them out for
- 22:31Speaker 4: six innings. So he was good in those two outings,
- 22:34Speaker 4: and in fact, he's been good in four.
- 22:37Speaker 3: Of his last five outings.
- 22:38Speaker 4: He's been good and allowed two runs combined over those outings,
- 22:43Speaker 4: but again, the majority of.
- 22:45Speaker 3: Them were at home.
- 22:47Speaker 4: One was at course Field, believe it or not, but
- 22:49Speaker 4: the rest of them were at home. I don't know
- 22:52Speaker 4: what else to say about it, but yeah, I don't
- 22:54Speaker 4: know that he's gonna actually do well here, even though
- 22:56Speaker 4: he's been pitching okay recently. Kansas City did just see him,
- 22:59Speaker 4: which help Kansas City a little bit, because you know,
- 23:02Speaker 4: when a team hasn't really seen a guy and then
- 23:04Speaker 4: they see him, they become more familiar with him and
- 23:07Speaker 4: they might be able to adapt and like change what
- 23:09Speaker 4: they did last time against him. Rocker his problem is
- 23:15Speaker 4: really the walks. His walk numbers too high. His hit
- 23:17Speaker 4: rates pretty good. His strikeout rate is low as well,
- 23:21Speaker 4: but the walks are really the main issue with him.
- 23:24Speaker 4: He does have good numbers against Kansas City, but most
- 23:26Speaker 4: of it was in that one start twenty three at
- 23:29Speaker 4: bats against him. One thirty average, three sixty one oh ps,
- 23:32Speaker 4: three to three strike out walk rat show not very
- 23:34Speaker 4: good though, but they might be able to hit him
- 23:37Speaker 4: a little bit better this time around.
- 23:38Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 23:39Speaker 4: I don't want to fully trust Rocker here. He's going
- 23:42Speaker 4: up against Waka Roka. Against Waka Waka is the better pitcher.
- 23:47Speaker 4: I mean, he's the more established pitcher. He's been pretty
- 23:50Speaker 4: steady for Kansas City. He's got a three point four
- 23:53Speaker 4: to four ERA one point one four whip. He's better
- 23:56Speaker 4: at home, so the home road splits are definitely in
- 23:58Speaker 4: favor of him here two point four to five home ra.
- 24:03Speaker 4: He wasn't great in his last game against Minnesota. He
- 24:06Speaker 4: also was not very good at Texas the game before that,
- 24:09Speaker 4: which is a little bit of a red flag. Not
- 24:11Speaker 4: pitching well in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks
- 24:14Speaker 4: that's not a good sign really that he got rocked
- 24:17Speaker 4: by Texas in that game.
- 24:19Speaker 3: He gave up four.
- 24:20Speaker 4: Walks in that outing too. I don't know what the
- 24:22Speaker 4: hell that was. I think we might have lost on
- 24:24Speaker 4: an under of some kind of that game. I don't
- 24:26Speaker 4: remember Walka. His overall numbers are about what you would
- 24:29Speaker 4: expect from him, though he has a really low hit rate.
- 24:31Speaker 4: His strikeout rates not very high, but he's not a
- 24:33Speaker 4: strikeout pitcher and his walk rate is okay, so you know,
- 24:38Speaker 4: he's not bad. He might be able to regain form here.
- 24:41Speaker 4: I mean when you see, like, oh, Rocker did really
- 24:44Speaker 4: well in his last game against Kansas City, Walko was
- 24:47Speaker 4: bad in his last game against Texas, sometimes that will
- 24:49Speaker 4: like zigzag a little bit because like the pitcher might
- 24:52Speaker 4: like change whatever the hell he did in that game.
- 24:56Speaker 4: Walka against Texas though he hasn't actually been that good
- 24:58Speaker 4: against them in his career, so it might not even
- 25:01Speaker 4: help that he You know that he could make adjustments
- 25:04Speaker 4: because he's got one hundred and twenty nine at bats
- 25:06Speaker 4: against them to seventy nine average, eight point two ops
- 25:10Speaker 4: twenty nine to thirteen strike.
- 25:11Speaker 3: Out walk ratio. Those numbers are not good so.
- 25:16Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I mean, there is a reason
- 25:18Speaker 4: why this total is ridiculous at ten and a half,
- 25:22Speaker 4: really ten and a half in a walk a game.
- 25:24Speaker 4: Oddsmakers are continuing to tell you that Kansas City is
- 25:28Speaker 4: now like a hitter friendly ballpark. I don't like it,
- 25:31Speaker 4: but I think an over might make sense in this game.
- 25:35Speaker 3: You got one.
- 25:36Speaker 4: Really bad bullpen that's completely used up Kansas City, Texas.
- 25:40Speaker 4: Their bullpen's good, but they are a bit used after yesterday.
- 25:45Speaker 4: Both pitchers might be untrustworthy here. Fifty two percent of
- 25:49Speaker 4: tickets seventy nine percent of the cash on the over
- 25:52Speaker 4: ten and a half, and it.
- 25:54Speaker 3: Is that high for a reason. So do with that
- 25:57Speaker 3: info what you want.
- 25:58Speaker 4: But this could be an over fifty four percent of
- 26:00Speaker 4: tickets fifty six percent of the cash on Texas.
- 26:04Speaker 3: Kansas City's favored around minus one eighteen.
- 26:06Speaker 4: When I first looked at this, I was like, well,
- 26:08Speaker 4: walk up, clearly as the better of the of the
- 26:10Speaker 4: splits here home and Road. So I was thinking Kansas City,
- 26:15Speaker 4: like first five made some sense here. Maybe it really doesn't, though,
- 26:19Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, the money is coming into
- 26:21Speaker 4: Texas if you're gonna go Texas, Uh, go full game
- 26:24Speaker 4: with it though, because they have the bullpen advantage still.
- 26:27Speaker 4: So if you played Texas, I would go full game.
- 26:29Speaker 4: If you play Kansas City, I would go first.
- 26:31Speaker 3: Five on it.
- 26:32Speaker 4: I don't have a strong opinion though, really on the
- 26:35Speaker 4: side there are like conflicting factors there.
- 26:39Speaker 2: Uh.
- 26:40Speaker 4: The last afternoon game is Cubs at Colorado. Colorado is
- 26:44Speaker 4: on the verge of a sweep of the Cubs. Here,
- 26:47Speaker 4: absolutely ridiculous that the Cubs might get swept by the Rockies.
- 26:52Speaker 3: I don't know who.
- 26:53Speaker 4: Who do the Rockies play next? I forget, I don't.
- 26:55Speaker 4: I don't really think it's a look ahead though, but
- 26:57Speaker 4: they the Rockies might just continue to be focus because
- 27:00Speaker 4: they're playing the Cubs. It would be crazy if they
- 27:03Speaker 4: swept them. They're playing the A's next, so two teams
- 27:07Speaker 4: that play in the most hitter friendly parks get to
- 27:10Speaker 4: play each other. That game is probably gonna be back
- 27:13Speaker 4: in that Sacramento stadium.
- 27:15Speaker 3: Oh god.
- 27:17Speaker 4: Anyway, this game is in course field, Cubs at Colorado.
- 27:21Speaker 4: Cubs should be a little bit extra motivated because this
- 27:23Speaker 4: would be embarrassing if they get swept by the Rockies.
- 27:27Speaker 4: The Cubs have the better bullpen here. Cubs used three no.
- 27:32Speaker 4: Four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Rockies used four
- 27:35Speaker 4: as well. Cubs have the better bullpen, they have the
- 27:38Speaker 4: bullpen edge. They're number nine in bullpen here. Rockies have
- 27:42Speaker 4: the worst Bullpenny Ray. They're number twenty five in a whip,
- 27:46Speaker 4: but they're.
- 27:46Speaker 2: A bad bullpen.
- 27:47Speaker 4: They're one of the worst. Cubs have the number thirteen offense.
- 27:52Speaker 4: They've fallen off offensively a bit. Rockies are number sixteen.
- 27:57Speaker 4: Edward Cabrera are pitching for the Cubs here. He's had
- 28:01Speaker 4: some issues this year. Four point nine to ninety RA,
- 28:04Speaker 4: one point four to two WHIP. Those are not good numbers.
- 28:07Speaker 4: He's been a little bit better on the road, believe
- 28:09Speaker 4: it or not. Four point seven to one Roady Ray.
- 28:12Speaker 4: I don't know if that translates to course field though
- 28:15Speaker 4: he got knocked around. He gave up eight runs against
- 28:18Speaker 4: San Francisco last time out. Although remember that was a
- 28:21Speaker 4: return from injury, though, so maybe there's just something, you know,
- 28:25Speaker 4: I don't know, Maybe that return from injury, he just
- 28:27Speaker 4: wasn't quite ready. I don't Usually guys are only gonna
- 28:30Speaker 4: go back out there if they're ready. But maybe you
- 28:32Speaker 4: can give him a pass for that. He did still
- 28:34Speaker 4: have six strikeouts in one walk in that outing, but
- 28:37Speaker 4: getting knocked around by a weak offense like San Francisco
- 28:40Speaker 4: is a red flag though, So that's not good Cabrera overall.
- 28:45Speaker 4: I mean, his strikeout rate is fine, it's about what
- 28:48Speaker 4: you'd expect. But his hit rate is too high and
- 28:50Speaker 4: his walk rate is too high, and he's allowed a
- 28:53Speaker 4: lot of home runs, and you know that's not a
- 28:54Speaker 4: good not a good thing when you're gonna be pitching
- 28:57Speaker 4: a course field. He's not really that fly ball heavy
- 29:00Speaker 4: as a pitcher though, so the amount of home runs
- 29:03Speaker 4: he's allowed is a little bit concerning, but that's not
- 29:07Speaker 4: really the.
- 29:07Speaker 3: Style of pitcher that he is.
- 29:09Speaker 4: And he gave up three against the Giants, which maybe
- 29:12Speaker 4: that was a bit of an outlier.
- 29:13Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 29:14Speaker 4: His numbers against Colorado were good overall. They really don't
- 29:17Speaker 4: even have that much experience against him. They have five
- 29:20Speaker 4: hitters who have faced him sixteen at bats one twenty
- 29:22Speaker 4: five average, three sixty four ops. Do with that information
- 29:27Speaker 4: what you want? He might pitch better here. I think
- 29:30Speaker 4: it's really difficult to say, and I look to his history.
- 29:33Speaker 4: He last pitched in course field in late twenty twenty four.
- 29:38Speaker 4: I think he was fairly good in that start, so
- 29:41Speaker 4: I don't know if you want to put that much
- 29:43Speaker 4: stock into that. I did not look further into his
- 29:45Speaker 4: history in coursefield, though, and Colorado they have a guy going,
- 29:50Speaker 4: Ryan Feltner. He might actually be their best starting pitcher,
- 29:53Speaker 4: which I know doesn't mean much when it's the Colorado Rockies.
- 29:56Speaker 3: But he's actually been good in course field, believe it
- 29:59Speaker 3: or not.
- 30:00Speaker 4: Four point two two era, one point one six whip
- 30:04Speaker 4: that's not bad. Three point twenty four home era. I
- 30:08Speaker 4: don't know how, but he's been pretty good at home.
- 30:11Speaker 4: And he's not a fly ball heavy pitcher really, so
- 30:15Speaker 4: that does help when you're pitching a course field.
- 30:18Speaker 3: He's had two good.
- 30:19Speaker 4: Starts in a row at home, including one shutout of
- 30:21Speaker 4: San Francisco, so he fared a lot better against San
- 30:24Speaker 4: Francisco than Cabrera did. He was good in his last
- 30:29Speaker 4: out against the Brewers as well, one hit them through
- 30:33Speaker 4: six innings.
- 30:34Speaker 3: Feltner. He's yeah, I mean he looks good right now.
- 30:38Speaker 4: He's feeling it. He's feltoning it right now. Well, that
- 30:41Speaker 4: doesn't sound great. He's allowed fewer than one hit per innings.
- 30:45Speaker 4: Walk rate is too high strikeout rates. Not great, but
- 30:50Speaker 4: he's been alright for Colorado. Maybe not necessarily a guy
- 30:54Speaker 4: you want to fade numbers against Chicago. They only have
- 30:57Speaker 4: five guys who are seeing him, and just like on
- 31:00Speaker 4: the opposite end, just like Cabrera, two for sixteen is
- 31:04Speaker 4: what these guys are against some one twenty five average,
- 31:06Speaker 4: four to twenty five ohps, three strikeouts, four walks though
- 31:10Speaker 4: so the walks are not great there, but three of
- 31:12Speaker 4: them are Swanson. But it's interesting that I think both
- 31:16Speaker 4: pitchers have faced five guys in the opposing lineup, and
- 31:20Speaker 4: both opposing lineups I think are two for sixteen off
- 31:23Speaker 4: these opposing pitchers. Very very strange.
- 31:26Speaker 3: It is possible that the Rockies.
- 31:28Speaker 4: Get the sweep pier, but their bullpen could screw them here.
- 31:33Speaker 4: Like I don't think Felton there is gonna be the
- 31:34Speaker 4: one that causes them to lose this game.
- 31:37Speaker 3: Necessarily, Cubs are favored.
- 31:39Speaker 4: I mean, we know that the Rockies get disrespected in
- 31:42Speaker 4: the market, and maybe rightfully so. The Cubs are around
- 31:45Speaker 4: minus one fifty something here on the road. They're expected
- 31:49Speaker 4: to win this game. Seventy five percent of tickets, eighty
- 31:51Speaker 4: one percent of the cash on the Cubs. They should
- 31:56Speaker 4: have the motivation here, but Cabrera has been in really
- 31:58Speaker 4: bad form. I don't see how you could trust here.
- 32:00Speaker 4: Money's also hitting the over in this game at eleven.
- 32:05Speaker 4: I don't know about that either. Like I could see
- 32:07Speaker 4: an argument for a first five under here if both
- 32:11Speaker 4: pitchers live up to their matchup numbers here and what
- 32:14Speaker 4: they could actually do. I could see the offense is
- 32:17Speaker 4: being slow to start here, So I don't know. I
- 32:21Speaker 4: don't think I really would want to want to be
- 32:23Speaker 4: on an over in this game. I don't know do
- 32:26Speaker 4: with that infot you want. It's a difficult game to
- 32:28Speaker 4: figure out. Really what's happening with Chicago?
- 32:33Speaker 2: Uh?
- 32:33Speaker 4: I can't stand the Bears because I don't like Caleb Williams.
- 32:37Speaker 4: I think they're massively overrated. Oh right, you're a Rockies fan.
- 32:41Speaker 3: That's right.
- 32:41Speaker 4: They're playing against the Cobs this. I have nothing really
- 32:45Speaker 4: against the Cobs. I mean, they're a they're a maligned organization.
- 32:50Speaker 4: And I just rewatched Rookie of the Year yesterday just
- 32:53Speaker 4: because I was like, and why not any I need
- 32:56Speaker 4: something light? I forgot John Candy was in that, all right?
- 33:00Speaker 4: I p John Candy very very funny man in his time. Man,
- 33:06Speaker 4: he's one of the best parts of that movie. Him
- 33:08Speaker 4: and then Daniel Stern is in it. Daniel Stern is
- 33:11Speaker 4: pretty ridiculous in it. But yeah, you know, it's it's
- 33:15Speaker 4: one of those nineties, you know, kids movies.
- 33:18Speaker 3: Whatever you want to say. I don't know.
- 33:21Speaker 4: It's the baseball parts of it are ridiculous, Like I
- 33:25Speaker 4: think some of the writers don't know baseball, but whatever,
- 33:31Speaker 4: all right, Yeah, John Candy is the is the announcer,
- 33:36Speaker 4: like the radio announcer or whatever in it?
- 33:40Speaker 3: Yeah he was. He was really good. All right.
- 33:44Speaker 4: Uh, what do we want to do here? All right,
- 33:46Speaker 4: let's just keep going whatever.
- 33:48Speaker 3: Dodgers and Pittsburgh, these teams is split. Now.
- 33:51Speaker 4: Pittsburgh just ended a four game losing streak with a
- 33:54Speaker 4: win yesterday, so ending that losing momentum might help Pittsburgh
- 33:58Speaker 4: out a little bit, might give them some new momentum here.
- 34:00Speaker 4: But I do not like this matchup for Pittsburgh, as
- 34:03Speaker 4: you'll see in a minute here. I think both teams
- 34:05Speaker 4: show up for this game. This is a pretty big series.
- 34:08Speaker 4: Dodgers used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Pittsburgh
- 34:12Speaker 4: used three as well, but they use Molodzinski as a
- 34:15Speaker 4: long relief man, so Pittsburgh's bullpen is kind of rested here.
- 34:20Speaker 4: Dodgers' bullpen has actually been struggling recently. They're down to
- 34:23Speaker 4: number four in WHIP, but their ERA is going way up,
- 34:27Speaker 4: so that the Dodgers are starting to have some bullpen
- 34:29Speaker 4: issues again. So that's not good for them because that
- 34:34Speaker 4: was their one main issue last year and it looks
- 34:37Speaker 4: like it's happening again. Still better than Pittsburgh, though Pittsburgh's
- 34:40Speaker 4: bullpen is not very good at all. At twentieth Dodgers
- 34:44Speaker 4: the number one in offense, Pittsburgh number six. Justin Robleski
- 34:50Speaker 4: pitching for the Dodgers.
- 34:52Speaker 3: He's been good. I don't know how he keeps doing
- 34:54Speaker 3: it because he's like a junk pitcher, but he keeps
- 34:56Speaker 3: pitching well.
- 34:57Speaker 4: Two point six two ERA one whip. He's been pretty
- 35:01Speaker 4: good on the road two point three to one Roadie Ray,
- 35:04Speaker 4: so he's been better on the road. Just pitched in Arizona,
- 35:08Speaker 4: shut them out for six innings after holding Philadelphia, had
- 35:12Speaker 4: a one hit in seven innings to start before that,
- 35:15Speaker 4: and his strikeout rate was pretty good thirteen zero strikeout
- 35:18Speaker 4: walk ratio.
- 35:19Speaker 3: Of those two starts too. He's in good form right now.
- 35:22Speaker 4: He's had a couple of bad starts, but he's mostly
- 35:25Speaker 4: pitched well. His strikeout rate is still low, but his
- 35:28Speaker 4: hit rate's really low. His walk rate is pretty low.
- 35:31Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I don't know how he keeps
- 35:33Speaker 4: doing this, but he does. And his numbers against Pittsburgh.
- 35:37Speaker 4: They don't have much experience against him. They only have
- 35:40Speaker 4: seven at bats against him, but they're row for seven
- 35:43Speaker 4: with four strikeouts and no walks, so they have not
- 35:46Speaker 4: done well against him when they have faced him. Mitch
- 35:49Speaker 4: Keller is pitching for Pittsburgh. He's the more established pitcher,
- 35:53Speaker 4: and I know I said that I liked him and
- 35:55Speaker 4: I think he's kind of an underrated pitcher.
- 35:56Speaker 3: But he hasn't been good recently.
- 35:58Speaker 4: He's got a four point eight one ERA now and
- 36:00Speaker 4: his whip has gone up a bit one point two
- 36:02Speaker 4: to three, although his whip is still indicative that his
- 36:05Speaker 4: RA should be a bit better than it is. Keller
- 36:08Speaker 4: has been worse at home five point two to two
- 36:10Speaker 4: home ERA, so he's not on the good side of
- 36:13Speaker 4: his home road splits here.
- 36:14Speaker 3: He's been awful in his last two outings.
- 36:17Speaker 4: He's gotten knocked around big time against Minnesota and Atlanta.
- 36:22Speaker 4: Atlanta's more excusable in the Minnesota. But he's not a
- 36:25Speaker 4: good form like really, four of his last five starts
- 36:27Speaker 4: have been pretty bad and the one good one he
- 36:30Speaker 4: walked three guys against Toronto. Toronto has not been a
- 36:33Speaker 4: good offense this year. Keller has some issues right now.
- 36:36Speaker 4: His hit rate is still pretty good, although he's been
- 36:38Speaker 4: way more hittable recently, which is bad. His walk rate's
- 36:42Speaker 4: not very good. His strikeout rate is really low too. Yeah,
- 36:48Speaker 4: he's not pitching well right now, and he has not
- 36:50Speaker 4: been good against the Dodgers either. Eighty at bats, nineteen strikeouts,
- 36:54Speaker 4: ten walks, three twelve average, one thousand and one ops
- 36:58Speaker 4: allowed not good, not good at all. Uh So I
- 37:04Speaker 4: like the Dodgers in this game. That's the way I
- 37:06Speaker 4: would play it. I think they still have a bullpen
- 37:09Speaker 4: advantage here. They should have the starting pitching edge here.
- 37:12Speaker 4: As I just showed you, they're the better team. They
- 37:15Speaker 4: have the better offense as well. Dodgers are around minus
- 37:19Speaker 4: one sixty though, so you couldn't money line it, but
- 37:22Speaker 4: I know it's really juicy. Eighty six percent of tickets,
- 37:25Speaker 4: ninety one percent of the cash on the Dodgers, it
- 37:27Speaker 4: looks like the money is kind of backing them here.
- 37:30Speaker 4: I would probably split be into making a run line
- 37:33Speaker 4: play like make your own minus one run line or
- 37:36Speaker 4: fine a minus one out there. The total is also high,
- 37:39Speaker 4: so you might be able to get enough runs to
- 37:41Speaker 4: get that one done total at nine and a half.
- 37:44Speaker 3: I think the Dodgers have been.
- 37:46Speaker 4: Fairly good at scoring on the road as well, so
- 37:48Speaker 4: that does help you out here as well. Another possibility
- 37:52Speaker 4: here is to you could just go Dodgers over their
- 37:54Speaker 4: team total if you think Robleski is kind of a
- 37:57Speaker 4: mystery and he is probably due to regress at some
- 38:00Speaker 4: point here, and you know this is not the easiest
- 38:04Speaker 4: pitching matchup to pitch against a good Pittsburgh offense that
- 38:07Speaker 4: is good at home. So I could see Dodgers over
- 38:11Speaker 4: their team total being a way to play this game.
- 38:13Speaker 3: For sure.
- 38:14Speaker 4: You'll probably need him to get I don't know, you
- 38:18Speaker 4: might need him to get six runs here though, It'll
- 38:21Speaker 4: either be five or six. I don't know what it'll be,
- 38:23Speaker 4: but that is a way of playing that They could
- 38:26Speaker 4: definitely do it. Seattle at Baltimore, these teams have split
- 38:31Speaker 4: this series Baltimore did just end a four game losing streaks,
- 38:34Speaker 4: so again that should.
- 38:35Speaker 3: Give them some new momentum.
- 38:37Speaker 4: And I know I said the same thing about Pittsburgh,
- 38:38Speaker 4: but I don't like their matchup there at all. I
- 38:42Speaker 4: don't like Baltimore's matchup here either because they're going up
- 38:44Speaker 4: against Brian Woo, so you know, I like Woo. Seattle
- 38:50Speaker 4: only is one guy out of the bullpen yesterday, so
- 38:52Speaker 4: they have a bullpen edge here for sure. Baltimore only
- 38:55Speaker 4: US two, but Seattle's got the better bullpen. Baltimore's number nineteen,
- 38:59Speaker 4: but their bullpen is quite bad. Seattle's era is like
- 39:03Speaker 4: a run and a half better. Even though they're only
- 39:05Speaker 4: ranked fifteenth, Seattle's bullpen is definitely the better one. Baltimore
- 39:10Speaker 4: is a little bit better offensively than Seattle. Baltimore is
- 39:14Speaker 4: where the eleventh Seattle fifteenth. Brian Wu, like I said,
- 39:19Speaker 4: is pitching for Seattle. Generally, he is good. His eray
- 39:23Speaker 4: is higher than it usually is though, three point seven
- 39:25Speaker 4: to four, but his whip is won, which is good,
- 39:28Speaker 4: so his eray should probably be a bit lower than that.
- 39:31Speaker 4: He struggled on the road, though that is one concern here.
- 39:34Speaker 4: Five point eight road Y Ray is not good. Seattle's
- 39:38Speaker 4: much more pitcher friendly, and he's much better in Seattle,
- 39:41Speaker 4: which does make sense. I think Wu has gotten somewhat
- 39:45Speaker 4: unlucky though in his last outing he had seven strikeouts,
- 39:48Speaker 4: no walks, but he gave up five runs against Detroit.
- 39:51Speaker 3: That's I think that's a little bit of an outlier.
- 39:53Speaker 4: Like I don't think he actually pitched poorly in that
- 39:55Speaker 4: game with that strike out walk ratio. His straight gout
- 39:58Speaker 4: walk ratio is really good on the and his strike
- 40:00Speaker 4: up rates not even really that low. Really, his hit
- 40:04Speaker 4: rate is low to his walk rate is pretty low.
- 40:06Speaker 4: He's got good numbers across the board, and Baltimore has
- 40:09Speaker 4: not done well against him in the past. They only
- 40:11Speaker 4: have six hitters who have faced him, but they have
- 40:14Speaker 4: thirty five at bats one forty three average, five eighty
- 40:17Speaker 4: nine ops, twelve strikeouts, two walks, though they have hit
- 40:21Speaker 4: three on runs off him, which is a bit much,
- 40:23Speaker 4: but WU generally has done quite well against Baltimore. Baltimore
- 40:28Speaker 4: is going with Kyle Bradish, who has a three point
- 40:31Speaker 4: eight to nine e RA, which looks good, but his
- 40:33Speaker 4: one point five to one whip tells you otherwise. He
- 40:36Speaker 4: has not actually been good. That whip is terrible. He
- 40:40Speaker 4: is good at home though, two point three to eight
- 40:42Speaker 4: homey ra, so he's been significantly better at home. But
- 40:45Speaker 4: he said three walks exactly in four of his last
- 40:49Speaker 4: five outings is out.
- 40:50Speaker 3: That is yeah, that's not good.
- 40:54Speaker 4: And you know a couple of them are against Toronto,
- 40:56Speaker 4: not a good offense. I don't really trust this guy.
- 40:59Speaker 4: He's got a decent strike cut rate. His hit rate
- 41:01Speaker 4: is okay, right around one per inning, but his walk
- 41:04Speaker 4: rate is clearly way too high.
- 41:06Speaker 3: So I don't like that profile. Just way too many
- 41:09Speaker 3: walks that could obviously lead to your undoing. He hasn't
- 41:14Speaker 3: been that bad.
- 41:14Speaker 4: Against Seattle, although his ops is high forty three at
- 41:18Speaker 4: bats against Seattle, thirteen strikeouts, four walks, two thirty three
- 41:21Speaker 4: average allowed is low, but they've hit him for power.
- 41:24Speaker 4: They got a lot of power numbers against him, eight
- 41:27Speaker 4: to ten ops, which is pretty it's fairly high. So
- 41:32Speaker 4: I got a lean to Seattle in this one. They
- 41:34Speaker 4: got a bullpen edge. They have the better pitcher on
- 41:36Speaker 4: the mound. The home road splits though. Do favor Bradish here.
- 41:39Speaker 4: That is maybe one concern here, but I would trust
- 41:42Speaker 4: Wu a bit more plus Seattle's bullpen. That's the way
- 41:46Speaker 4: I would lean. I would be Seattle here. We got
- 41:48Speaker 4: Seattle correct in the first game of the series. Haven't
- 41:51Speaker 4: been back involved in the series since then. Don't think
- 41:54Speaker 4: I really want to do it here, but I like Seattle.
- 41:56Speaker 4: The money seems to agree, and you're getting a nice
- 41:58Speaker 4: price on it, like minus one fourteen or so here,
- 42:02Speaker 4: So you get a decent price on Seattle. Sixty percent ticket,
- 42:05Speaker 4: seventy four percent of the cash on Seattle. Uh, that's
- 42:09Speaker 4: the way I would lean.
- 42:10Speaker 3: Money line.
- 42:11Speaker 4: Seattle totals at eight and a half money kind of
- 42:14Speaker 4: coming in on the over in that game. I don't
- 42:18Speaker 4: really have a good feel for the total in that
- 42:21Speaker 4: game really, there are some conflicting factors there.
- 42:23Speaker 3: But I would prefer, yeah, playing Seattle.
- 42:26Speaker 4: On the money line in that game. And then we
- 42:28Speaker 4: have Atlanta against the White Sox. The White Sox, believe
- 42:32Speaker 4: it or not, are attempting to sweep Atlanta here, but
- 42:35Speaker 4: Atlanta is the better team and White Sox won each
- 42:38Speaker 4: game by one run, including that walk off by Montgomery.
- 42:42Speaker 4: I'm not sure we'll ever hear from him again, but
- 42:44Speaker 4: he had that walk off in his major league debut
- 42:47Speaker 4: and then the White Sox won again yesterday. Davis Martin
- 42:50Speaker 4: was good in the game. I should have put that
- 42:52Speaker 4: on my card.
- 42:52Speaker 3: Man.
- 42:53Speaker 4: I liked the first five under in that game, and
- 42:55Speaker 4: that was a winner.
- 42:57Speaker 3: Yesterday. The full game also.
- 42:59Speaker 4: Was so Sale versus Martin in That game wound up
- 43:03Speaker 4: being a pitching duel, which is what I thought. Uh,
- 43:06Speaker 4: this game may not be much of a pitching duel
- 43:08Speaker 4: though we don't know. I mean, this is gonna be
- 43:10Speaker 4: difficult to kind of figure this out. Atlanta used three
- 43:14Speaker 4: guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
- 43:16Speaker 3: They have the better bullpen. The White Sox use three
- 43:18Speaker 3: as well.
- 43:19Speaker 4: Atlanta is still number one in bullpen both in whip
- 43:22Speaker 4: and in ERA, and it's kind of by a bit
- 43:24Speaker 4: of a significant margin.
- 43:26Speaker 1: Now.
- 43:26Speaker 4: They're the only bullpen with a sub three ERA. This
- 43:29Speaker 4: is a good bullpen. White Sox bullpen is not. They're
- 43:33Speaker 4: number eighteen, not great, not the worst though. Atlanta number
- 43:38Speaker 4: three in offense excuse me, and the White Sox number five.
- 43:42Speaker 4: So both teams have been able to hit interesting pitching matchup.
- 43:46Speaker 4: We have I think two guys that are kind of
- 43:48Speaker 4: overperforming here. Martin Perez is pitching for the Braves. He's
- 43:53Speaker 4: been good and his whip is good too, three point
- 43:55Speaker 4: oh two era one point oh six whip. You know,
- 43:58Speaker 4: like I always keep pointing out, he's a journeyman pitcher.
- 44:02Speaker 3: He's kind of old now.
- 44:04Speaker 4: Doesn't rely on velocity though, he relies on command and
- 44:07Speaker 4: placing his pitches correctly. He throws junk, but he's been
- 44:11Speaker 4: pretty good. You know, maybe that will you know, maybe
- 44:15Speaker 4: it will unravel a bit. He's been better at home,
- 44:18Speaker 4: though he's not as good on the road, which is
- 44:20Speaker 4: where he is now. Four point two five roadyra So
- 44:24Speaker 4: that's a little bit of a concern that he's on.
- 44:25Speaker 3: The road here.
- 44:27Speaker 4: He did do okay last time out against Pittsburgh, was
- 44:31Speaker 4: able to get the win against Pittsburgh and didn't do
- 44:33Speaker 4: too terribly, so that's not bad. He's been going around
- 44:36Speaker 4: five or so innings in every outing, allowing like, you know,
- 44:40Speaker 4: two three runs. Basically, he's been pretty serviceable here. He's
- 44:45Speaker 4: got a really low hit rate. His walk rate is
- 44:47Speaker 4: a bit too high, and his strikeout rate is not high.
- 44:50Speaker 4: But he is not a strikeout pitcher. But yeah, he's
- 44:53Speaker 4: been decent, and you know, I guess until we see
- 44:56Speaker 4: him really start unraffling, I don't really want to fade
- 44:59Speaker 4: him necessarily. The White Socks only have four hitters who
- 45:02Speaker 4: have ever faced him, but Ben and Tendy and Great
- 45:05Speaker 4: Chuck have both seen him a lot. They have forty
- 45:08Speaker 4: three at bats combined between these four guys, nine strikeouts,
- 45:12Speaker 4: three walks, two seventy nine average only a six fifty
- 45:15Speaker 4: two ohps though, so they've hit him for contact but
- 45:18Speaker 4: not so much for power, and some of the guys
- 45:22Speaker 4: haven't even faced him, so this matchup doesn't look that
- 45:25Speaker 4: bad for him. Anthony Kaye is pitching for the White Sox.
- 45:29Speaker 4: He's kind of a converted reliever. He's got a four
- 45:31Speaker 4: point four e RA. His whip is not good though,
- 45:34Speaker 4: one point four or five whip that is bad. He's
- 45:37Speaker 4: been good at home though, a three homey RA, so
- 45:40Speaker 4: he's in the better of his home road splits year.
- 45:42Speaker 4: He was not good in his last game though at Philadelphia.
- 45:45Speaker 4: They definitely got to him, so that's not a great sign.
- 45:49Speaker 4: But he was pitching more than capably in the previous
- 45:53Speaker 4: few starts.
- 45:54Speaker 3: Prior to that.
- 45:55Speaker 4: The White Sox won five starts in a row of
- 45:57Speaker 4: his and he allowed two or fewer and runs and
- 45:59Speaker 4: all of those so he had a really good May,
- 46:02Speaker 4: but it looks like he is kind of falling out
- 46:03Speaker 4: a form here, and his whip really suggests that he's
- 46:06Speaker 4: not that good. Like, don't look at his five and
- 46:09Speaker 4: one record, because he's gotten a little bit lucky, and
- 46:13Speaker 4: he's had some run support in some of these games
- 46:16Speaker 4: as well, not a lot, though not as much as
- 46:18Speaker 4: you would expect. His hit rate is not even good,
- 46:21Speaker 4: it's like more than one per inning. His walk rate
- 46:23Speaker 4: is okay ish, and his strike out rate is really low.
- 46:28Speaker 3: I think he's less trustworthy than Perez. Really.
- 46:31Speaker 4: His numbers against the Braves, they haven't really seen that
- 46:33Speaker 4: much of him.
- 46:34Speaker 3: Twelve at bats two fifty average, seven to fifty ops.
- 46:37Speaker 3: It's right in line, like right on those averages there.
- 46:42Speaker 4: So I don't know what to think about that. Two strikeouts,
- 46:44Speaker 4: no walks.
- 46:49Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 46:49Speaker 4: I probably would lean to the Braves here to avoid
- 46:52Speaker 4: the sweep. I mean, they're the better team here, they
- 46:55Speaker 4: got the better bullpen that could help them out. I
- 46:57Speaker 4: probably trust Perez a little bit more, even though he
- 46:59Speaker 4: hasn't been a good on the road. You get a
- 47:01Speaker 4: really reasonable price on the Braves here at minus one eighteen,
- 47:04Speaker 4: which I know That worries me though, because it looks
- 47:07Speaker 4: way too easy to play the Braves. But the White
- 47:10Speaker 4: Socks have been kind of an over hyped team though.
- 47:12Speaker 4: Man Like the public seems to really like the White
- 47:15Speaker 4: Sox because they like these teams that go from being
- 47:18Speaker 4: really horrible to playing really well, and especially their offense
- 47:22Speaker 4: is good. But yeah, I think Perez is just a
- 47:25Speaker 4: bit more trustworthy a man. I mean, he said the
- 47:28Speaker 4: much more full fledged career here.
- 47:31Speaker 3: Money seems to agree with this.
- 47:32Speaker 4: Eighty two percent of tickets, ninety four percent of the
- 47:34Speaker 4: cash on Atlanta. So that is the way I would
- 47:37Speaker 4: go in this game probably if I was gonna play it.
- 47:39Speaker 4: You get the better bullpen behind you two if you
- 47:41Speaker 4: go Atlanta money line. I worry that it seems it
- 47:44Speaker 4: still seems way too easy, though, to take the team
- 47:46Speaker 4: with the best record in baseball or whatever at this
- 47:49Speaker 4: small of a price. But I think they probably get
- 47:53Speaker 4: it done here and avoid the sweep White Sox eighty
- 47:58Speaker 4: one percent of the tickets or excuse me, the over
- 48:00Speaker 4: as eighty one percent of tickets, ninety one percent of
- 48:02Speaker 4: the cash on it total at eight and a half.
- 48:04Speaker 4: I don't really have a good read on the total
- 48:06Speaker 4: there money seemingly indicating towards the over a bit there,
- 48:10Speaker 4: though Atlanta does score a decent amount on the road,
- 48:14Speaker 4: so I guess so I'm gonna keep in mind there.
- 48:16Speaker 4: But both pitchers have been holding opposing offenses down though,
- 48:20Speaker 4: so I don't know. I don't know if I necessarily
- 48:22Speaker 4: want to go over in that game, but probably Atlanta
- 48:26Speaker 4: money line is what makes the most sense there.
- 48:28Speaker 3: I don't really think the White Sox are gonna be
- 48:30Speaker 3: looking ahead though.
- 48:31Speaker 4: Who are they playing? They're playing well, they're playing the
- 48:33Speaker 4: Dodgers next. White Sox have a difficult schedule through these
- 48:37Speaker 4: last couple of series here, man, But I don't think
- 48:41Speaker 4: they're gonna overlook Atlanta though. Even though they've already won
- 48:44Speaker 4: the series, it's still a big game against Atlanta, so
- 48:47Speaker 4: I don't really see them overlooking the game. But I
- 48:49Speaker 4: think I still lean Atlanta there. All right, I'm gonna
- 48:52Speaker 4: take you a quick break and then i'll finish the
- 48:54Speaker 4: rest of these sports. I'll do WNBA next, where I'm
- 48:58Speaker 4: skipping the WNBA yet again, I just don't have an
- 49:01Speaker 4: angle for it, man, being very selective with the WNBA,
- 49:05Speaker 4: but it's worked out well. Maybe once Cup play is over,
- 49:08Speaker 4: it'll be better to find situations. But I just don't
- 49:11Speaker 4: really see any good situations recently.
- 49:14Speaker 3: I'll be right back all right.
- 50:19Speaker 4: Oh and by the way, I forgot to mention because
- 50:22Speaker 4: I was gonna put on an NFL network Disney taking
- 50:26Speaker 4: over NFL Network and Red Zone. I told you that
- 50:28Speaker 4: that was fucked and that they were gonna destroy everything.
- 50:31Speaker 3: Well, guess what.
- 50:32Speaker 4: I have comcasts here for Cable. They're in a contract
- 50:36Speaker 4: distribute with Disney, so I don't have NFL Network or
- 50:40Speaker 4: Red Zone now, even though I pay for them.
- 50:42Speaker 3: Fuck you fuck off. It's complete bullshit, dude, absolute fucking bullshit.
- 50:48Speaker 3: Fuck Disney. I fucking hate this shit.
- 50:50Speaker 4: I knew that they were gonna just they were just
- 50:53Speaker 4: gonna destroy everything because that's what they do. They've destroyed
- 50:57Speaker 4: Star Wars, yeah, man, yeah, they're They've destroyed Red Zone
- 51:03Speaker 4: and off on network. Now I can't even watch them anymore.
- 51:06Speaker 4: So isn't that just fucking great?
- 51:10Speaker 3: I hate it. W n B A all right, I
- 51:15Speaker 3: don't even know what I'm saying about the w NBA.
- 51:17Speaker 2: Here.
- 51:17Speaker 4: We have four Cup games here Chicago and Indiana is
- 51:20Speaker 4: the first game.
- 51:20Speaker 3: It's on Amazon Prime.
- 51:23Speaker 4: Indiana just beat Washington barely, so they got a Cup
- 51:26Speaker 4: win there. I don't even know what's going on with
- 51:30Speaker 4: the Cup, like who's eliminated now whatever. Indiana looks like
- 51:34Speaker 4: they've won two of three Cup games. They're a good team, though,
- 51:39Speaker 4: you know, they're better than the record looks, as long
- 51:42Speaker 4: as their coach stops being an idiot. Chicago, I think
- 51:46Speaker 4: is better than their record looks too, though Chicago, they've
- 51:50Speaker 4: struggled recently. They're coming off a tough game against Atlanta.
- 51:53Speaker 4: Though Atlanta not a bad team in the Battle of
- 51:57Speaker 4: angel Reee, angel ree won, but Chicago, I don't know, man.
- 52:02Speaker 4: I mean, they've lost a lot of games recently. Though
- 52:06Speaker 4: this game, I think i'd probably lean Atlanta because Chicago
- 52:10Speaker 4: is coming up that tough game against Atlanta.
- 52:12Speaker 3: I think I lean Indiana.
- 52:14Speaker 4: Excuse it, because Chicago's coming up the tough game against Atlanta.
- 52:19Speaker 4: Indiana's only returning home from a single Oh no, they're
- 52:21Speaker 4: returning over from a two game road trip, so I
- 52:24Speaker 4: guess you know that's something. But I don't know how
- 52:27Speaker 4: much I care about that.
- 52:28Speaker 3: Really. They were gone for less than a week, not
- 52:31Speaker 3: too bad, you know, I talk.
- 52:32Speaker 4: About the road trip returns, you return you can be
- 52:34Speaker 4: distracted upon returning home, but I don't think that's gonna
- 52:37Speaker 4: be the case there. They also only play Connecticut next,
- 52:40Speaker 4: which is not a big deal at all. So yeah,
- 52:44Speaker 4: I think I would lean to Indiana here. Plus, there
- 52:46Speaker 4: is a reason why Indiana is nine and a half
- 52:49Speaker 4: point favorites here or ten, Like people are gonna look
- 52:52Speaker 4: at this. Indiana's only one game above five hundred. Why
- 52:55Speaker 4: would you want to lay that price with them?
- 52:57Speaker 3: Right?
- 52:57Speaker 4: But the oddsmakers are favoring them by that much reason.
- 53:00Speaker 4: I think Chicago has a bunch of injuries right now too.
- 53:03Speaker 4: Like I think Chicago is not that bad of a team,
- 53:06Speaker 4: but I think they have some major injuries right now,
- 53:08Speaker 4: which is factoring into this too, and factoring into why
- 53:12Speaker 4: they're not playing well recently. Fifty eight percent of tickets,
- 53:15Speaker 4: sixty seven percent of the cash on Indiana money indicating
- 53:19Speaker 4: on Indiana. I'd probably agree with that and lean that way,
- 53:21Speaker 4: but I don't have a strong opinion.
- 53:25Speaker 3: I don't have any strong opinion on any of these.
- 53:27Speaker 4: New York at Atlanta, New York has won five games
- 53:31Speaker 4: in a row now, They've won every Cup game they've
- 53:33Speaker 4: played so far. They just beat Connecticut really easy win there.
- 53:38Speaker 3: It was in kind of.
- 53:38Speaker 4: A sandwich spot, and I think they might have still
- 53:40Speaker 4: covered that number barely.
- 53:42Speaker 3: Maybe they didn't. I don't know. It was somewhere close.
- 53:46Speaker 3: The final score was somewhere close to the spread. But whatever.
- 53:50Speaker 3: Now they're playing Atlanta.
- 53:51Speaker 4: Atlanta did just beat Chicago, but they got a little
- 53:54Speaker 4: bit of a scare there against Chicago. Atlanta was favored
- 53:58Speaker 4: on the road in that game, I'm pretty sure, and
- 53:59Speaker 4: they got a little bit of a scare. Maybe they
- 54:01Speaker 4: were looking a little bit ahead to New York here.
- 54:05Speaker 4: These teams are good. These teams are both gonna be
- 54:07Speaker 4: playoff teams. Most likely Atlanta is favored at home. I'd
- 54:12Speaker 4: probably lean that way. The money is indicating that way.
- 54:15Speaker 4: I don't really have Again, I don't have a strong
- 54:17Speaker 4: feel for it. New York seventy one percent of tickets
- 54:20Speaker 4: on them. They're coming out of an easy game, though
- 54:22Speaker 4: New York is Atlanta is coming off a game where
- 54:26Speaker 4: they got a scare. Though, Like I said, and sometimes
- 54:28Speaker 4: you want to take a good team coming off a
- 54:30Speaker 4: scare like that.
- 54:31Speaker 3: Atlanta minus four and a half.
- 54:33Speaker 4: There is a reason why they're laying points here like this,
- 54:36Speaker 4: eighty five percent of the cash on Atlanta. And if
- 54:39Speaker 4: you look at the team's records here, you know, Atlanta
- 54:44Speaker 4: eight and three, New York eate and four. It makes
- 54:45Speaker 4: it seem like the public might want to lean towards
- 54:48Speaker 4: the underdog in a game like that because they think, oh,
- 54:50Speaker 4: it's two good teams, it's gonna be a close game, right,
- 54:53Speaker 4: But I don't know. I think I would lay it
- 54:55Speaker 4: with Atlanta on that one if I was gonna play it. It
- 54:56Speaker 4: does look like there's a public versus a professional split
- 55:02Speaker 4: in that game and the money there. Phoenix at Dallas.
- 55:06Speaker 4: Dallas is definitely playing decently this year. They're, you know,
- 55:10Speaker 4: they're an up and coming team. They did just get
- 55:13Speaker 4: blown out by Minnesota, though, and that might be kind
- 55:16Speaker 4: of a you know, return to Earth type of game.
- 55:20Speaker 4: Like they were on a four game win streak, so
- 55:23Speaker 4: losing and losing momentum like that could hurt you and
- 55:26Speaker 4: hang you over into the next game. But they got
- 55:28Speaker 4: blown out by Minnesota, so maybe they potentially bounce back
- 55:32Speaker 4: from that. But I don't like teams that are off
- 55:34Speaker 4: losing a win streak, and I don't like teams that
- 55:36Speaker 4: are returning home.
- 55:37Speaker 3: Which Dallas is.
- 55:38Speaker 4: They went out to LA and then Minnesota, so they've
- 55:41Speaker 4: been away for almost a week. I don't love that.
- 55:44Speaker 4: And possibly they overlook Phoenix because Phoenix has a bad
- 55:47Speaker 4: record here. Phoenix is coming up of a tough game too,
- 55:50Speaker 4: though in the Cup they had a close game against
- 55:54Speaker 4: Golden State. They're decent teams. So both teams are kind
- 55:58Speaker 4: of in bad spots here. Although I think Phoenix is
- 56:00Speaker 4: not as bad as.
- 56:01Speaker 3: The record looks. They've faced a pretty difficult schedule here.
- 56:07Speaker 3: What do we do with this game?
- 56:08Speaker 4: The money's coming in on Dallas, I think I slightly
- 56:11Speaker 4: disagree with that one. Dallas is around six and a
- 56:13Speaker 4: half seven here, seventy tickets, eighty seven percent of the
- 56:17Speaker 4: cash on them. I think Phoenix is a little bit
- 56:20Speaker 4: under the radar here. Like again, I think because of
- 56:22Speaker 4: their record, I think they might be a little bit undervalued.
- 56:26Speaker 4: I'd probably lean towards taking the points with Phoenix Dallas.
- 56:29Speaker 4: It looks like the spot for them might be a
- 56:31Speaker 4: little bit worse as well.
- 56:32Speaker 3: But not a good read on that game either.
- 56:34Speaker 4: And then Vegas at Portland kind of a mismatch here,
- 56:38Speaker 4: although it is on the road for Vegas here.
- 56:40Speaker 3: Portland's lost three games in a row.
- 56:43Speaker 4: They are returning home from La right now, but only
- 56:45Speaker 4: a single game road trip there.
- 56:48Speaker 3: Vegas has been playing well.
- 56:50Speaker 4: They've won every game in Cup play so far, I'm
- 56:52Speaker 4: pretty sure, and.
- 56:55Speaker 3: I think Portland has lost all of theirs.
- 56:57Speaker 4: So Portland will probably get up for this game because
- 57:00Speaker 4: you got Vegas coming to your house, you know what
- 57:02Speaker 4: I mean. Vegas has not had to travel there yet,
- 57:06Speaker 4: so it's kind of a weird travel spot for Vegas
- 57:08Speaker 4: to have to go to Portland, go to this expansion
- 57:11Speaker 4: team they haven't had to face yet. Or yeah, they
- 57:14Speaker 4: haven't had to go to this arena yet, so it
- 57:15Speaker 4: makes it a little bit weird. And they do play
- 57:18Speaker 4: Minnesota next, which is a CBS and Paramount Plus game.
- 57:22Speaker 4: That's a big game that was supposed to be the
- 57:25Speaker 4: finals matchup last year before Collier got hurt, So they
- 57:28Speaker 4: might be looking ahead a little bit, So I would
- 57:30Speaker 4: lean to Portland in this game. Probably they're gonna be
- 57:33Speaker 4: a little bit desperate to get some sort of win here.
- 57:36Speaker 3: Vegas is minus nine and a half.
- 57:38Speaker 4: Vegas is a very public side, ninety one percent of
- 57:40Speaker 4: the tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash on them. Yeah,
- 57:43Speaker 4: I would lean towards taking the points with Portland there,
- 57:46Speaker 4: although I don't think Portland.
- 57:48Speaker 3: Is as good as the record looks.
- 57:49Speaker 4: I think they're above five hundred, and I just don't
- 57:51Speaker 4: think they're that good.
- 57:53Speaker 3: Or Ano they're below five hundred.
- 57:54Speaker 4: Now, so yeah, whatever, I think Toronto is above five hundred.
- 57:58Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 57:58Speaker 4: I don't really I get the two expansion teams confused.
- 58:02Speaker 4: They're they're the same to me, but whatever, I don't
- 58:06Speaker 4: have anything there, Stanley Cup, I don't have a good
- 58:08Speaker 4: read on this game either. Vegas and Carolina series is
- 58:14Speaker 4: tied to two. Each team has won one game on
- 58:16Speaker 4: the road and one game at home, so the teams
- 58:19Speaker 4: have been the same in the series, basically home and away.
- 58:22Speaker 4: I think there was a little bit of a home
- 58:24Speaker 4: I thought there would be a little bit more of
- 58:25Speaker 4: a home advantage in the series, but it looks like
- 58:27Speaker 4: maybe there isn't. Carolina won the last game five to three.
- 58:32Speaker 4: There was an empty net goal in the game. They
- 58:34Speaker 4: blew a three nothing lead in the game or no, sorry,
- 58:37Speaker 4: it was two nothing, my mistake, to nothing.
- 58:40Speaker 3: Three to one.
- 58:41Speaker 4: They blew a three to one lead in the third No,
- 58:43Speaker 4: in the second period, sorry, but yes, they had an
- 58:46Speaker 4: empty net goal at the end. Carolina had more shots,
- 58:49Speaker 4: so they did have more opportunities, so their offensive possession
- 58:52Speaker 4: was better in the game, and they won the face
- 58:55Speaker 4: off battles, so the final score wasn't that misleading. Vegas
- 58:59Speaker 4: had more hits, but yeah, Carolina was a bit the
- 59:02Speaker 4: better team in the game.
- 59:03Speaker 3: Not by a lot, but better, you know.
- 59:07Speaker 4: I mean, I've been rooting for Vegas here just to
- 59:09Speaker 4: cripple everybody else's brackets, and because I think the hate
- 59:13Speaker 4: against Carter Hard is completely unjustified and bullshit.
- 59:18Speaker 3: Carolina.
- 59:18Speaker 4: You gotta worry about their goaltending situation though, because the
- 59:21Speaker 4: fact that they benched Anderson, I guess they're gonna continue
- 59:25Speaker 4: to going with Bussy here.
- 59:26Speaker 3: But Bussy is a young guy. Man, He's in experience,
- 59:30Speaker 3: and when.
- 59:30Speaker 4: You get to like a game five like this in
- 59:33Speaker 4: a tight series, pressure starts mounting. This is a high
- 59:37Speaker 4: pressure situation, and Vegas has the more experienced players, like
- 59:41Speaker 4: they have more pedigreed players here that might come into
- 59:44Speaker 4: play here.
- 59:45Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I don't really love the Carolina
- 59:48Speaker 3: switch goaltenders.
- 59:50Speaker 4: Plus, if they want to go with Anderson again, they
- 59:52Speaker 4: bring him back in. His confidence might be shaken because
- 59:55Speaker 4: they took him out. So I don't really love that,
- 59:58Speaker 4: you know. I don't like when team are making goaltender
- 1:00:01Speaker 4: changes like this, like in the middle of a final series.
- 1:00:04Speaker 3: I don't like it.
- 1:00:06Speaker 4: So I think that could be a negative. It could
- 1:00:08Speaker 4: have impact here, we'll see. I mean, Bussy did give
- 1:00:11Speaker 4: up that lead.
- 1:00:12Speaker 3: In that last game. He wasn't great.
- 1:00:14Speaker 4: Neither goalie was that good in that last game. There
- 1:00:16Speaker 4: weren't that many shots in the game. They're say percentages
- 1:00:19Speaker 4: were very similar. Of course, Carolina had an empty net goal,
- 1:00:22Speaker 4: so that was not on heart.
- 1:00:26Speaker 3: Yeah, that's basically what I have to say about this.
- 1:00:30Speaker 3: Vegas is favored by about the same that they were
- 1:00:32Speaker 3: in the other home games. They're like minus one sixty.
- 1:00:35Speaker 3: Oh no, actually they've gone down a bit. They're off
- 1:00:38Speaker 3: the board. What is going on? They're off the board
- 1:00:40Speaker 3: at the online books.
- 1:00:42Speaker 4: I don't know what's going on here, and the Vegas
- 1:00:44Speaker 4: books only have the minus one forty something. Now, I
- 1:00:48Speaker 4: don't know what's going on there, but it looks like
- 1:00:49Speaker 4: they were like minus one sixty or so. But it's
- 1:00:53Speaker 4: off the board now, so I don't know what to
- 1:00:54Speaker 4: tell you. I don't know what's going on with this,
- 1:00:58Speaker 4: we don't have percentages to at here. Either the total
- 1:01:01Speaker 4: is off the board to what's happening in this game,
- 1:01:03Speaker 4: or maybe this board is just fucked up right now.
- 1:01:06Speaker 3: I don't know if the.
- 1:01:07Speaker 4: Total looked like it was high though it was like
- 1:01:08Speaker 4: six and a half almost. Yeah, I mean, i'd probably
- 1:01:13Speaker 4: be looking to an under.
- 1:01:14Speaker 2: Man.
- 1:01:15Speaker 3: I think every game in the series has gone over.
- 1:01:17Speaker 2: But.
- 1:01:19Speaker 4: This could be an under. When you have a two
- 1:01:21Speaker 4: to two series, a lot of times defenses, you know,
- 1:01:24Speaker 4: defense becomes the focus, you know what I mean.
- 1:01:27Speaker 3: Although maybe I'm too old school and.
- 1:01:29Speaker 4: I remember the the dead Puck era and whatever. Games
- 1:01:32Speaker 4: are so low scoring in the NHL, But yeah, I
- 1:01:36Speaker 4: mean every game has gone over.
- 1:01:37Speaker 3: Some game has to go under in this series.
- 1:01:40Speaker 4: Carolina plays a style that's more conducive to the under,
- 1:01:43Speaker 4: so if they play that way here, that might happen
- 1:01:46Speaker 4: as well.
- 1:01:47Speaker 3: Uh these lower scoring games.
- 1:01:49Speaker 4: But yeah, defenses tend to tighten up in a tide
- 1:01:51Speaker 4: series like this. In game five, so under possibly a consideration.
- 1:01:56Speaker 3: In that game.
- 1:02:00Speaker 4: Uh, I don't know, man, Besides the over in that game,
- 1:02:05Speaker 4: there's a reason why that's the only play I gave.
- 1:02:07Speaker 3: I don't even like that I don't even like that.
- 1:02:09Speaker 4: Really, uh the over, but I gave it out as
- 1:02:12Speaker 4: a play because a lot of things seem to line
- 1:02:14Speaker 4: up for it. This is a very very bad board,
- 1:02:17Speaker 4: Like I don't want to force shit here. I don't know,
- 1:02:21Speaker 4: like one of my other one of my stronger opinions
- 1:02:25Speaker 4: maybe the Dodgers, you know whatever, Yeah, what did I say?
- 1:02:31Speaker 4: Dodgers team total over maybe? And uh, Seattle Mariners maybe.
- 1:02:37Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 1:02:38Speaker 4: I really don't know. Like my opinions are not strong here.
- 1:02:42Speaker 4: This board is horrible. I don't want to be forced
- 1:02:44Speaker 4: into giving out opinions. Although if you bet.
- 1:02:46Speaker 3: Your own money, that's on you.
- 1:02:48Speaker 4: So all right, I'll talk about the World Cup, but
- 1:02:50Speaker 4: I don't have much to say here. These games are
- 1:02:53Speaker 4: on Fox, Fox Sports.
- 1:02:54Speaker 3: One and Peacock.
- 1:02:56Speaker 4: We have two World Cup matchups today to open up
- 1:02:59Speaker 4: the World Cup, one in the afternoon, which is both
- 1:03:02Speaker 4: of these are in Mexico. Hey, bro, I thought the
- 1:03:05Speaker 4: US was hosting here. What the fuck? Why are these
- 1:03:08Speaker 4: games in Mexico? And it just so happens that Mexico
- 1:03:11Speaker 4: is playing in the first game against South Africa in
- 1:03:15Speaker 4: Mexico in Mexico City.
- 1:03:18Speaker 3: I don't know much about these teams.
- 1:03:20Speaker 4: I know Mexico is the better team and they're at home,
- 1:03:22Speaker 4: so they're minus two thirty five favorite, they're probably gonna win.
- 1:03:27Speaker 4: What should you do with this game? Probably nothing. I
- 1:03:31Speaker 4: don't know if I see any value there. And you
- 1:03:34Speaker 4: can go watch my World Cup preview video. It was
- 1:03:37Speaker 4: pretty quick. I talked about it last night. Just generally,
- 1:03:40Speaker 4: you know what the future is, odds look like, and
- 1:03:42Speaker 4: how to bet soccer. Basically this South Korea Czech Republic game,
- 1:03:48Speaker 4: though this is in Mexico as well, which is bizarre.
- 1:03:53Speaker 4: I kind of lean South Korea in this one though,
- 1:03:55Speaker 4: because I think that the general thought like when people
- 1:03:58Speaker 4: think about these two teams, they always lead to the
- 1:04:01Speaker 4: European team, Like, oh, like, you know, because soccer. Ever,
- 1:04:06Speaker 4: when people think about soccer, right, what do they think
- 1:04:08Speaker 4: about Europe and South.
- 1:04:10Speaker 3: America and Central America? Right? Like, that's pretty much what
- 1:04:12Speaker 3: you think. You don't think Asia?
- 1:04:15Speaker 4: So I think South Korea actually is a slight favorite
- 1:04:19Speaker 4: over Czech Republic. Here they're plus one seventy or so,
- 1:04:22Speaker 4: but Czech Republic is about plus one eighty or something
- 1:04:25Speaker 4: on the three way line. So the oddsmakers are telling
- 1:04:28Speaker 4: you they actually think South Korea is the slightly better
- 1:04:31Speaker 4: team here, and they've been kind of a surprise in
- 1:04:33Speaker 4: the World Cup in some recent World Cups that they've
- 1:04:36Speaker 4: been in. I would lead South Korea here if you're
- 1:04:41Speaker 4: gonna play it. I don't know anything about the personnel
- 1:04:43Speaker 4: or anything like that. This is just my read on
- 1:04:46Speaker 4: which team I think might be being overlooked here a
- 1:04:48Speaker 4: little bit.
- 1:04:49Speaker 3: I would do.
- 1:04:50Speaker 4: A one of the types of bets that I talked
- 1:04:53Speaker 4: about last night to get the best price on this,
- 1:04:57Speaker 4: the one in the range that you're looking for.
- 1:04:58Speaker 3: I would say South Korea.
- 1:05:00Speaker 4: Do a draw no bet on South Korea, which means
- 1:05:05Speaker 4: that you're playing South Korea. The price is gonna be
- 1:05:08Speaker 4: about minus one seventeen, probably something in that range minus
- 1:05:12Speaker 4: one twenty whatever it is. You're playing on South Korea,
- 1:05:15Speaker 4: and if they win, you'll win your bet. But if
- 1:05:17Speaker 4: they draw, then the bet will basically be voided or
- 1:05:22Speaker 4: it will kind of be a push.
- 1:05:24Speaker 3: But if they lose, you'll lose. But I don't know
- 1:05:27Speaker 3: how likely that is that that happens. So I think
- 1:05:29Speaker 3: South Korea draw no bet kind of makes some sense
- 1:05:32Speaker 3: in this one. I'm not gonna give out a play
- 1:05:34Speaker 3: on that.
- 1:05:34Speaker 4: I don't even I don't know if I'm gonna give
- 1:05:36Speaker 4: out any plays in the World Cup here, but that
- 1:05:40Speaker 4: would probably be if I was gonna look at either
- 1:05:42Speaker 4: of these games today, that might be what I would do.
- 1:05:44Speaker 3: But I know nothing.
- 1:05:45Speaker 4: About soccer, so don't don't listen to me. But that's
- 1:05:49Speaker 4: kind of my read on that that you know.
- 1:05:52Speaker 3: To me.
- 1:05:53Speaker 4: It seems like the European team would like the public
- 1:05:58Speaker 4: would think the European team would be the best our
- 1:06:00Speaker 4: team here, but the osmakers are telling you the teams
- 1:06:02Speaker 4: are closely matched.
- 1:06:04Speaker 3: So I think that's it. That's gonna do it. You
- 1:06:07Speaker 3: can go watch my World Cup preview that I did
- 1:06:10Speaker 3: late last night. It's a very short video, it's like
- 1:06:13Speaker 3: twenty minutes. Probably. I'm gonna get that up on audio.
- 1:06:15Speaker 3: I'm gonna get everything up on audio.
- 1:06:17Speaker 4: My only play today is this horrible Minnesota Detroit over.
- 1:06:22Speaker 3: Nine and a half in baseball. All the splits line
- 1:06:25Speaker 3: up for it, so hopefully we.
- 1:06:26Speaker 4: Can get that one done and we get some bad
- 1:06:30Speaker 4: bullpens to fade there. Learn a tone on Twitter, Learn
- 1:06:34Speaker 4: a tone on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here
- 1:06:37Speaker 4: and you get notified when I go live randomly at
- 1:06:39Speaker 4: two Am, like I did last night after I got
- 1:06:41Speaker 4: home from the Less Claypool extravaganza that I went to
- 1:06:45Speaker 4: last night featuring three of his bands, including Primus and
- 1:06:49Speaker 4: the two Sean Lennon bands.
- 1:06:52Speaker 3: It was fun.
- 1:06:55Speaker 4: What else I talked about it on that show last
- 1:06:58Speaker 4: night too. We're on audio Apple, Spotify, Speaker go check
- 1:07:02Speaker 4: that out there. That helps me out too. Covered in
- 1:07:04Speaker 4: yuke My yuke Cover channel on YouTube. There are some
- 1:07:07Speaker 4: originals on there too, and I'm thinking about maybe getting
- 1:07:10Speaker 4: some more originals going, maybe going with album number two.
- 1:07:14Speaker 3: I've won yuke album so far that I've done. Got
- 1:07:18Speaker 3: to get back to some writing. Gotta get some inspiration.
- 1:07:22Speaker 4: It might be from random, weird life events though that's
- 1:07:25Speaker 4: usually how I get inspired. So even though the first
- 1:07:29Speaker 4: album was about a chick on Twitter or so, what
- 1:07:35Speaker 4: else do we have to say here?
- 1:07:36Speaker 2: Uh?
- 1:07:37Speaker 4: Patreon dot com, slash learn it to you can find
- 1:07:39Speaker 4: me there if you want to throw me support that way,
- 1:07:44Speaker 4: Loser Cast every Tuesday night, and the Giants g Spot podcast,
- 1:07:48Speaker 4: which is a thing, but we still need to get
- 1:07:52Speaker 4: that going.
- 1:07:52Speaker 3: That's gonna do it. I appreciate everybody, peace, but don't.
- 1:07:58Speaker 2: You go quiet?
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: Don't you play from the floor, your name, steal me
- 1:08:02Speaker 1: something new, somebody for show.
- 1:08:05Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
- 1:08:10Speaker 1: Now, hold on, hold on nothing nice, now hold on,
- 1:08:23Speaker 1: hold on. Let me pull you. That bites hard, but
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: it don't get the crown.
- 1:08:38Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now