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Iran war widens as Egypt & Saudi Arabia get pulled in · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: The last twenty four hours have seen the war widen,
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  Speaker 1: this time to Egypt, where a drone hit the port
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  Speaker 1: of Damieta, setting two ships there on fire. It's the
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  Speaker 1: first time that country has been targeted in the war.
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  Speaker 1: No one has claimed responsibility, and today Iran's Foreign ministry
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  Speaker 1: urged vigilance against what it called false flag operations designed
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  Speaker 1: to undermine regional peace. The foreign minister also warned Cyprus
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  Speaker 1: and Bulgaria against allowing the US to use their basis
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  Speaker 1: to launch attacks on Iran. In another sign of expanding hostilities,
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  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, for the first time in this war joined
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  Speaker 1: the US in a strike against Iranian backed militias inside Iraq.
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  Speaker 2: How big is this.
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  Speaker 3: Getting bigger and bigger, and it's moving almost inexorably toward
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  Speaker 3: the west. Think of Western Front. We talked about that
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  Speaker 3: in World War Two. Here it is the Red Sea,
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  Speaker 3: the Suez Canal owned and operated by Egypt. Strikes on Jordan,
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  Speaker 3: and the Iranians are also threatening NATO partners, saying, whatever
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  Speaker 3: you do, NATO partners, don't allow your bases to be
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  Speaker 3: used for strikes against US. So we're seeing a kind
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  Speaker 3: of inexorable movement to the west here Vianna, and it's
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  Speaker 3: very worrisome. Here's the play. The Iranians are pulling in
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  Speaker 3: as many of the Arab states as they can, hoping
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  Speaker 3: that they the Arab States will turn around put pressure
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  Speaker 3: on the US to pull out. I think it's going
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  Speaker 3: to backfire on them. And I'll close with this. I
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  Speaker 3: am seeing pretty credible reporting that the Saudis are trying
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  Speaker 3: to put together a coalition of Arab states in order
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  Speaker 3: to push back on this red sea challenge they're facing.
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  Speaker 3: So I don't think this is going to work for Iran,
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  Speaker 3: but that's the game they're plan.
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  Speaker 2: And you all and SO are looking at Moran reiterating
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  Speaker 2: the Straight of Hormuz is going to remain closed. You
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  Speaker 2: have fourteen mostly regional countries backing that maritime defense alliance
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  Speaker 2: that's supposed to protect the shipping routes the global trade.
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  Speaker 2: What does the future of global shipping through all of
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  Speaker 2: these regional waterways look like in your view?
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  Speaker 3: You've put your finger on why all this matters beyond
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  Speaker 3: the pretty obvious day to day impact on the global
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  Speaker 3: economy of shutting down a major strait. Why it really
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  Speaker 3: matters is, broadly speaking, are we going to preserve freedom
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  Speaker 3: of the high seas. Are we going to preserve transit
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  Speaker 3: rights through straits around the world. Are we going to
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  Speaker 3: protect our Suez Canal, Panama Canal and other areas of
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  Speaker 3: the oceans that are so crucial to trade. So I
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  Speaker 3: think again, you're going to see Iran's efforts here backfire.
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  Speaker 3: It'll lead to the coal that you and I just
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  Speaker 3: talked about of Arab states. But what I'm hoping for,
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  Speaker 3: Brianna is the Europeans, who, after the United States and
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  Speaker 3: perhaps China, had the third most powerful combination of worships.
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  Speaker 3: Will the Europeans come into this alongside the US to
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  Speaker 3: reopen this strait. I'm hoping that is what happens, and
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  Speaker 3: that would be in that case, a real strategic mistake
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  Speaker 3: by the Iranians to broaden this conflict.
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  Speaker 2: And speaking of Europe, Iron's foreign minister actually worn to
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  Speaker 2: European countries Cyprus and Bulgaria against allowing the US military
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  Speaker 2: to use their basis. How much ability does Iron have
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  Speaker 2: to back up those kind of warnings.
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  Speaker 3: Limited but not completely benign, meaning if you look at
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  Speaker 3: the ranges of their maximalist ballistic missiles, in theory they
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  Speaker 3: could reach all the way to Eastern Europe Bulgaria, or
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  Speaker 3: into the East Mediterranean, where the nation of Cyprus, not
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  Speaker 3: a NATO member by the way, but a European Union
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  Speaker 3: member sits. So again, Iran is pushing at the Arab
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  Speaker 3: world to the west. Now we're seeing them push toward
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  Speaker 3: the European world even further. Ultimately, I think this will
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  Speaker 3: backfire on the mulas in Tehran. I hope it does.
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  Speaker 2: Today, China's foreign minister dismissed reports from Reuters the Beijing
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  Speaker 2: ascending three to four hundred shoulder fired air defense missile
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  Speaker 2: launchers to Iran. That's according to the country's state run
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  Speaker 2: news agency. US Intel had indicated that China was preparing
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  Speaker 2: to deliver new air defense systems to Iran. So I
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  Speaker 2: think that there was this expectation of that. That's what
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  Speaker 2: CNN's reporting has been. What kind of concerns does this
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  Speaker 2: raise for you? What does this look like.
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  Speaker 3: It's not just the package of potential shoulder fired missiles,
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  Speaker 3: whether that's a good piece of intel or assured, but
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  Speaker 3: what it ought to worry all of us is if
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  Speaker 3: China is going to line up alongside Iran to the
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  Speaker 3: degree of providing military great hardware or even Briana components
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  Speaker 3: that go into it. That's extremely worrisome because it gives
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  Speaker 3: Tehran a lifeline. It's the phone of friend concept. They've
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  Speaker 3: already Tehran worked closely with Russia. If Beijing starts to
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  Speaker 3: step in alongside Russia supporting Tehran will have a bigger
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  Speaker 3: problem that could final thought bleed over into the Pacific
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  Speaker 3: as well.
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  Speaker 4: What the President could do is what he might be
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  Speaker 4: uncomfortable doing, and that's asking for help. If you have
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  Speaker 4: those age allies that need the Strait to be open,
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  Speaker 4: you have Europe partially dependent on Middle East oil, you
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  Speaker 4: have all the Gulf states that play here as well
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  Speaker 4: as Israel a major coalition to do two things. To
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  Speaker 4: pressure the Iranians diplomatically with one full throated voice, but
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  Speaker 4: also to exact economic sanctions on the Radians because we
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  Speaker 4: know their pressure point. Maybe not so much as their military,
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  Speaker 4: it's their economy that has to happen. But Jim, I
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  Speaker 4: think ultimately this as general person says, this is going
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  Speaker 4: to be a war of attrition. We're going to have
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  Speaker 4: to grind down their military, but they're not going to
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  Speaker 4: give in anytime soon.
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  Speaker 1: Well, Ambassador, there's another credibility question too, because deals with
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  Speaker 1: this president, I think one could reasonably say, don't always
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  Speaker 1: hold up. Ask the Saudi's about the nuclear deal. Ask
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  Speaker 1: for the president seems to be raising questions about his
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  Speaker 1: promise to allow Ukraine to build interceptors under license. Ask
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  Speaker 1: any US trading partner about trade deals negotiated in the
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  Speaker 1: last months and several years. Why would Iran calculate rationally
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  Speaker 1: that if it negotiates with this president that any deal
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  Speaker 1: will hold well.
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  Speaker 4: I think General Gibson is right. The Iranians are going
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  Speaker 4: to wait us out. They think they're tougher and more
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  Speaker 4: resilient than we are, and they don't have mid term
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  Speaker 4: elections and public opinion to contend with, so I think
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  Speaker 4: that's a factor here. That's why I think Jim your
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  Speaker 4: question is a good one. I don't think the Iranians
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  Speaker 4: are going to trust commitments made by Steve Whitkoff or
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  Speaker 4: Jared Kushner or President Trump himself. It's why you need
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  Speaker 4: to internationalize this conflict a bit to get other countries
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  Speaker 4: that the Iranians do care about to come in with
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  Speaker 4: the economic sections. The Saudis have this idea just floated
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  Speaker 4: today of a coalition to try to secure shipping channels
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  Speaker 4: in the Red Sea. The British and French have been
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  Speaker 4: talking for well more than a year about a coalition
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  Speaker 4: of countries that would come in to the Four Moves
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  Speaker 4: eventually if there is a permanencyase fire or a durable
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  Speaker 4: one to escort ships through the strait. So the US
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  Speaker 4: cannot succeed on its own, it needs help from the
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  Speaker 4: allies that the President has spent a lot of time
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  Speaker 4: demeaning recently,